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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson: The election remains far from a foregone con
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson: The election remains far from a foregone conclusion
Groupthink can be a most dangerous thing. To listen to many commentators, analysts and indeed many politicians, such is the consensus that you might believe that the election was all over and the result in; that result being Con and Lab roughly level, an SNP landslide in Scotland, the Lib Dems parliamentary party halved and UKIP and the Greens failing to register meaningfully.
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The thing that strikes me as odd about Yougov is the consistency of their polls - surely they should have thrown up one outlier by now?
That said, there may be something systematically wrong with the whole approach - for example the mere fact of having been asked the same question in Jan/Feb may make people who said Lab more likely to say Lab again, or something like that.
We've had 28 YouGovs to date......
"Witney
Poll suggests Con may hold this seat"
Titter.....
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594242341826928640/photo/1
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594269928120786944
YG more favourable to Lab since "methodology change"?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594281021631246336
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594276237624942592
@RobD - weell, OK, I'll consider "online non-YG" data
There's been 209 polls this year, in my model only the Ashcroft in mid Jan with labour at 28% suggested a situation where Con+LD can muster a majority.
I have the luxury of fundamentally not giving a jot who wins, my betfair positions are mostly green, overall profit looks safe. I don't have to live with the consequences of the results, If I can resist trading it's all just entertainment.
YouGov's methology changed at data point number 76 and took 5 days to fully impact upon the moving average.
Less confident after yesterdays polls that tories will win. Tonights pretty crucial. Royal baby to save the tories?!
Im honestly wondering if were heading for a 1992 style polling disaster.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
You should claim copyright!
Which would have to rank as one of the most astonishing elections any of us have known.
2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Jacobite_Party
No doubt it will happen, but as a monarchist-because-it-annoys-the-republican-Left, I just don't get it......
As we settle down to enjoy the Bank Holiday weekend, may I extend my good wishes to the Duke & Duchess of Cambridge on the imminent birth of their second child - and thank them both for a timely distraction from daily politics.
I just really hope, in this febrile atmosphere, that all sides can keep from trying to use the birth to score political points. It's inevitable that someone, somewhere is going to say something stupid/insensitive - when it happens, can we please just ignore them, whatever the colour of their rosette?
Anyway,
Good luck to William & Kate. And welcome to the world, Prince Nigel!
http://media.themalaysianinsider.com/assets/uploads/articles/britain_royal_baby_watchers_london_afp_300415.jpg
Mondays papers & maybe tomorrows if Kates birthed by 10pm, as probable, will be awash with baby headers and pictures. But remember its a bank holiday weekend anyway so politically the timings perfect. Sunday / Monday paper sales may be up with souvenir editions.
Tuesday will be half and half I think. Half pics and half politics. Wednesday will be right back to politics.
So news wise I don't think it'll matter much as its bank holiday weekend. People aren't thinking politics over a bank holiday.
Feel good? Dunno. Maybe. Assuming alls fine that should help tories. Good wishes to the lovely couple anyhows. Cute.
Find out at 9:00am as the birth of a new ARSE reveals all ....
The phones picking up a sharp swingback, the internet saying small swingback.
When it comes down to demographics and randomisation, it's easy to hypothesise why.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/32264700
I just don't know who's right. My instinct is the Tories are 2% ahead, which isn't enough of course.
Back in the Eighties, Jackie magazine famously published strips of melodramatic teenage romances.
As the election campaign rolls interminably on, we've decide to create our own photo casebook featuring that ever-flirting pair Ed Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon.
The teenage Nicola is sweet on the nerdy youngster, but can she seduce him with her charm and wiles when he's only got eyes for her friend Clegg?
Read on...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3064879/Ed-Nicola-Jackie-Magazine-special-Scots-lass-loved-independence-met-class-nerd-anorak-Ed-fall-wee-mouse-liker-her.html
This could play well for Milliband as some of the electorate will think " going into Labour" is Kate's endorsement of the red team as such they will vote same way.
;-)
Or is Cameron just a lucky general again.... .?
If Labour finishes well then the only contractions will be in the economy
If the polls tell us anything it's that Labour are up and the Tories are down wrt to 2010.
In 2010, with 37% and an 8 pt lead the Tories didn't win a majority.
In 1992, they barely scraped a majority with 42% of the vote.
(a) they have shown what was generally expected a priori and a continuation of the trend. Bayesian logic is therefore a point in their favour
(b) Populus tweaked their internet methodology the other day - this might just be herding but it's interesting that it's come from the internet side
My final forecast range:
Tories - 285-305
Labour - 245-265
LibDems - 20-30
SNP - 55-59
YouGov's incredibly stable outcome is actually what we should expect if opinion hasn't changed. Statistical MOE on opinion polls isn't actually 3% (because of weighting) and they are now weighting to prior opinion rather than just demography which will increase stability still further [by design]. Look up edmundintokyo's posts yesterday for more on this.
The issue is whether the internet panels are full of more politically aware people who are more likely than average to be committed. But they tracked the Labour slump just fine until January. If the phone pollsters prove correct I think we will have to consider the infiltration & manipulation hypothesis.
There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.
Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?
This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.
Interesting times!
I do think/hope that this chart could prove to be one of the most significant of the election and well done to Sunil for collating it. It shows a consistent and increasing swing to the Tories in the phone polls indicative of a lead by polling day of maybe 4%. This is being masked by Yougov in particular which is showing a swing back to Labour and dragging the average back to flat.
I don't think anyone can be completely confident about who is right and who is wrong in this polling but one delivers one of David's surprises and one delivers another. In court cases that are not clear cut one of the tests is which side would you rather be on? I think in this case I would rather be on the side of the phones.
That is more than consistent.
Still undecided about how I'll follow things, and for how long. The agony of choice!
If Witcher 3 came out earlier, I'd just play that for ages and occasionally flick back onto the TV in between playing cards and severing heads.
Mr. Herdson's quite right. This election's as hard to call as the start of the 2012 F1 season (when the first seven races had seven different winners).
"dämmerung" is twilight, right?
so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
Interminable etc. etc.