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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson: The election remains far from a foregone con

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    I think the problem with the first possibility, that the Tories do much better than anticipated, is that a lot of the projections that have Tories with most but not enough seats are already reliant on assuming the Tories do better than the polls, on average, suggest. Of course the average may be wrong, dragged down by consistent underestimators, but there seems to much anticipation that that must be the case. As such, there isn't as much scope to underestimate it even further.
    RobD said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Still undecided about how I'll follow things, and for how long. The agony of choice!

    If Witcher 3 came out earlier, I'd just play that for ages and occasionally flick back onto the TV in between playing cards and severing heads.

    Mr. Herdson's quite right. This election's as hard to call as the start of the 2012 F1 season (when the first seven races had seven different winners).

    TV for election show of your choice, computer for various websites, and iPad for PB (the place to be during national events)?
    For some reason I can hardly even seem to log in to PB from my iPad. The only time I can actually recall it working was the night of the IndyRef.

    Mr. Eagles, to be fair, I think we'd win a war with Monaco. And you might cause enough damage to stop its 'circuit' being inflicted on F1 every year.

    What I want to know is where are the legions of people who apparently like, not merely tolerate the race in Monaco. I know a lot of F1 fans, and none of them think it is a good addition to the race calendar.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the penulimate ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th April Projection) :

    Con 306 (+1) .. Lab 247 (+1) .. LibDem 28 (-2) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Would you permit us a peek at your breakdown of the 17 non-SNP Scottish MP's?
    Certainly not.

    If I let you observe my ARSE at close quarters then all and sundry will be clamouring for a more intimate inspection.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    Fine Pies (Est 1745)

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
    APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

    Jack, with the greatest of respect, but why are you persisting with this nonsense?

    You're an established, informed and amusing poster but you're making yourself look very stupid.
    I'd probably add 20-25 to the Labour seat total, but there's nothing implausible about Jack's numbers if the telephone polls are correct.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    edited May 2015
    Oooh, The Tories take a 17% lead with YouGov for the Sun.

    Con 44% Lab 27% UKIP 18% Lib Dems 4%

    (Sadly it's a poll of Sun readers)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    DavidL said:

    Well after reading this article, I've just filled in my postal vote.

    My record of voting Tory in every general election that I could vote in remains unbroken


    @patrickwintour: Nick Clegg in Times reopens apparently closed door to a coaliton with Labour, if dependent on SNP. http://t.co/lBaAgP9YR3

    Not easy indulging in this tactical voting stuff is it? Given that the models and pollsters are indicating a 99% probability of the SNP taking Dundee West comfortably I think now I will stick with what I believe. If there had been a hint it was going to be close I would have voted Labour but there isn't.
    It isn't.

    Seems the Lib Dems have spent most of the week doing things to annoy us Tories
    My totally ungrounded in any facts whatsoever suspicion is they felt they may have gone a bit too far in Tory leaning terms, at least nationally, and have been compensating.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    DavidL said:

    Well after reading this article, I've just filled in my postal vote.

    My record of voting Tory in every general election that I could vote in remains unbroken


    @patrickwintour: Nick Clegg in Times reopens apparently closed door to a coaliton with Labour, if dependent on SNP. http://t.co/lBaAgP9YR3

    Not easy indulging in this tactical voting stuff is it? Given that the models and pollsters are indicating a 99% probability of the SNP taking Dundee West comfortably I think now I will stick with what I believe. If there had been a hint it was going to be close I would have voted Labour but there isn't.
    It isn't.

    Seems the Lib Dems have spent most of the week doing things to annoy us Tories
    Is their strategy to piss everyone off more or less equally, and then hope people will still vote for them as a moderating influence on the basis they've equally irritated all sides?

    Doesn't seem a recipe for success to me.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the penulimate ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th April Projection) :

    Con 306 (+1) .. Lab 247 (+1) .. LibDem 28 (-2) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Would you permit us a peek at your breakdown of the 17 non-SNP Scottish MP's?
    Certainly not.

    If I let you observe my ARSE at close quarters then all and sundry will be clamouring for a more intimate inspection.

    Ok, I'll put LD 1 down for the Viscount, so just 16 left to account for...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    Fine Pies (Est 1745)

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
    APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

    Jack, with the greatest of respect, but why are you persisting with this nonsense?

    You're an established, informed and amusing poster but you're making yourself look very stupid.
    Because Rogerdamus has ensured with his premier ARSE denier status that I shall be proved conclusively correct. :smile:

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    Changes since Jan are

    Con +9 UKIP -8

    Five years ago, 43% of Sun readers voted Conservative, 28% Labour, 18% Lib Dem, and other minor parties including Ukip got 11%.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509

    malcolmg said:

    Be interesting to see if the Royals in the news dents the SNP's numbers in Scotland. In theory it should boost positive feelings for unionism.

    LOL, you have to be joking , nobody can be crazy enough to believe that rubbish
    Good morning Malcolm. God Save the Queen.
    Morning Dave, will still not make any difference to SNP whatsoever. Another royal sprog to be paid for i snot such a great event. After Lizzie they will fade to obscurity.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    Pong said:

    Another +1 for Scotterdämmerung :)

    I don't get it.

    "dämmerung" is twilight, right?

    so, Scottish twilight. In German. Presumably there's more to it that that, or some cultural/political/historical reference I'm not getting?
    Wagner's Gotterdammerung (the final opera in his Ring cycle) = twilight of the Gods.

    However, it's taken a more general meaning to be the end of any era whereby the previously powerful are overcome, particularly by the efforts of the heroic everyman.

    The inference being that the Scottish political 'gods' i.e. the Labour machine is about to witness its own descent into night. One could argue the literality of the metaphor as after the twilight and the night is a new dawn whereas in both settings, the assumption is that it's permanent. Furthermore, the gods lose their power both through their own actions of selfishness and quarrelling, and through human love rendering the gods redundant. There are enough parallels to make antifrank's creation perfect.
    Not so much Das Rheingold as Die Nordsee-Öl.
    SLAB = Fafner, gets power, but doesn't know what to do with it.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    kle4 said:


    What I want to know is where are the legions of people who apparently like, not merely tolerate the race in Monaco. I know a lot of F1 fans, and none of them think it is a good addition to the race calendar.

    The drivers. It's a very historic circuit and a very difficult one to stay on, so to win there is considered extra special.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Oooh, The Tories take a 17% lead with YouGov for the Sun.

    Con 44% Lab 27% UKIP 18% Lib Dems 4%

    (Sadly it's a poll of Sun readers)

    Given the way the Sun has been pushing the Tories on their readers, should it be higher?

    In all honestly, I prefer my newspaper spin with a little more subtlety, the pretense of objectivity, and far less passion than you get in the Sun or Mirror, but it must be a little weird to be a Tory regular reader of the Mirror, or Labour reader of the Mail (if such people exist) during GE time, when they are going all out.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    And here's the split into Phone polls v. Online: https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594264607885254657


    I do think/hope that this chart could prove to be one of the most significant of the election and well done to Sunil for collating it. It shows a consistent and increasing swing to the Tories in the phone polls indicative of a lead by polling day of maybe 4%. This is being masked by Yougov in particular which is showing a swing back to Labour and dragging the average back to flat.

    I don't think anyone can be completely confident about who is right and who is wrong in this polling but one delivers one of David's surprises and one delivers another. In court cases that are not clear cut one of the tests is which side would you rather be on? I think in this case I would rather be on the side of the phones.
    Two of the phone pollsters, ICM and Mori, do not prompt for UKIP. They also produce the lowest UKIP numbers. That seems unlikely to be a coincidence.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9350

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9281
    ICM's figure of 7% for UKIP was implausibly low. But, the usual range of 10-13% seems realistic to me. I know enough Con/UKIP floating voters to know that fear of a Labour/SNP government will push some of them back to the Conservatives.

    If you exclude ICM's lowest and highest numbers as outliers, their UKIP range is 9%-11%. Mori 10-11%.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900

    Parliamentary party take note

    @PaulGoodmanCH: If the Tories win more seats but Labour gains office, over half of party members think Cameron should remain leader http://t.co/Wmlme8uV2Y

    If the Tories are the biggest party by at least 15 seats (and maybe 5% of the vote) I hope Cameron does stick around to try and form a government. I fear some in the party might smell blood though...
  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    JackW.

    How accurate was your 2010 forecast?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:


    What I want to know is where are the legions of people who apparently like, not merely tolerate the race in Monaco. I know a lot of F1 fans, and none of them think it is a good addition to the race calendar.

    The drivers. It's a very historic circuit and a very difficult one to stay on, so to win there is considered extra special.
    They should pay for it themselves and not bother to televise it then, so as not to inflict it on us. I can only recall of a couple of races that were interesting there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    edited May 2015
    Will Scobie the Lab candidate in South Thanet, has retweeted this (I believe this is known as past vote weighting)

    https://twitter.com/MrsTaraPlumbing/status/594414229165342720
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    malcolmg said:


    Morning Dave, will still not make any difference to SNP whatsoever. Another royal sprog to be paid for i snot such a great event. After Lizzie they will fade to obscurity.

    Out of curiosity Malcolm - and this is a genuine question that I have always wanted to know the answer to - why did Salmond propose keeping the Queen in the event of a Yes vote? I always thought an independent Scotland would automatically be a republic, which has clearly always been a popular option there. Yet he didn't propose it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2015
    Either the SNP hold the balance of power across the UK or not, it makes little difference to chances of a second independence referendum. Both Cameron and Miliband have said the Smith Commission plans will be legislated post election and Sturgeon has basically said another referendum will only be held in the short term if the UK votes Out of the EU in an EU referendum and Scotland votes In
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    kle4 said:


    They should pay for it themselves and not bother to televise it then, so as not to inflict it on us. I can only recall of a couple of races that were interesting there.

    Well, in fairness they drive 17-odd races every year and most of the rest are for our benefit. It doesn't seem excessive that they get one race in a pleasant resort with major peer respect on the outcome with massive sponsorship from a bunch of tax exiles.

    In any case, most races are not televised now anyway. They're all on Sky.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,569

    Parliamentary party take note

    @PaulGoodmanCH: If the Tories win more seats but Labour gains office, over half of party members think Cameron should remain leader http://t.co/Wmlme8uV2Y

    I don't think he'd want to, though.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    DavidL said:

    It is good to see that you have the courage of your convictions Jack and don't indulge in any of that cowardly convergence ....

    Historically others converge on my ARSE as reliably as Ed on election day has underperformed the Labour poll rating.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:


    Morning Dave, will still not make any difference to SNP whatsoever. Another royal sprog to be paid for i snot such a great event. After Lizzie they will fade to obscurity.

    Out of curiosity Malcolm - and this is a genuine question that I have always wanted to know the answer to - why did Salmond propose keeping the Queen in the event of a Yes vote? I always thought an independent Scotland would automatically be a republic, which has clearly always been a popular option there. Yet he didn't propose it.
    ydoethur, whilst true that there are many who are not inclined to the Royal family in general , the Queen is very popular and I think it would not go down well whilst she is around. Not so sure how people would see it after she is gone but would not be even an option to suggest it till then.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:


    They should pay for it themselves and not bother to televise it then, so as not to inflict it on us. I can only recall of a couple of races that were interesting there.

    Well, in fairness they drive 17-odd races every year and most of the rest are for our benefit. It doesn't seem excessive that they get one race in a pleasant resort with major peer respect on the outcome with massive sponsorship from a bunch of tax exiles.
    I know, I'm just a little grumpy about it - given the increasing number of tracks that want to be on the calendar and the finite number of spots, Monaco can prevent some decent tracks and entertainment from getting on because of its prestige.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    Will Scobie the Lab candidate in South Thanet, has retweeted this (I believe this is known as past vote weighting)

    Will hasn't got a Scooby.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772

    Parliamentary party take note

    @PaulGoodmanCH: If the Tories win more seats but Labour gains office, over half of party members think Cameron should remain leader http://t.co/Wmlme8uV2Y

    I don't think he'd want to, though.

    Wouldn't it be poor tactics in any case? If the Tories lose under those circumstances, it seems likely there would be a second election in a year or so, and with a new leader on honeymoon they might pick up quite a lot more seats and go straight back to power. Once politicians start losing seats, however, they just keep going down - Wilson was the exception but not a dazzling one (lost 76 seats, won back about 20).
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GeoffH said:

    JackW.

    How accurate was your 2010 forecast?

    Hopelessly inaccurate .... one seat out. :smile:

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:


    Morning Dave, will still not make any difference to SNP whatsoever. Another royal sprog to be paid for i snot such a great event. After Lizzie they will fade to obscurity.

    Out of curiosity Malcolm - and this is a genuine question that I have always wanted to know the answer to - why did Salmond propose keeping the Queen in the event of a Yes vote? I always thought an independent Scotland would automatically be a republic, which has clearly always been a popular option there. Yet he didn't propose it.
    Fear of Jacobites?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Parliamentary party take note

    @PaulGoodmanCH: If the Tories win more seats but Labour gains office, over half of party members think Cameron should remain leader http://t.co/Wmlme8uV2Y

    I don't think he'd want to, though.

    True enough. What gets me is the 4% who think he should go in the event he wins a majority - we'll call that the truly committed anti-cameroons I guess. What would he have to do to convince that 4% he should stay on?

    I'm interested to see if Cameron stays as an MP for an entire term in the event of Miliband winning. Somehow I doubt it. I know people have been criticial of how much he had actually been doing, but I appreciated that Brown did not just quit the Commons after losing the Premiership, as I was beginning to fear might become a thing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:


    Morning Dave, will still not make any difference to SNP whatsoever. Another royal sprog to be paid for i snot such a great event. After Lizzie they will fade to obscurity.

    Out of curiosity Malcolm - and this is a genuine question that I have always wanted to know the answer to - why did Salmond propose keeping the Queen in the event of a Yes vote? I always thought an independent Scotland would automatically be a republic, which has clearly always been a popular option there. Yet he didn't propose it.
    ydoethur, whilst true that there are many who are not inclined to the Royal family in general , the Queen is very popular and I think it would not go down well whilst she is around. Not so sure how people would see it after she is gone but would not be even an option to suggest it till then.
    Thank you, that does make sense. As somebody who is hardly a monarchist but has a huge respect for the Queen personally, it's an argument I also find compelling. I take it that if it had been King Charles III (or King George VII as he apparently wants to be) then matters would have been somewhat different?!
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    I believe it is, sort of, SNP policy to answer the Head of State question once the Queen has died. Other Commonwealth realms have the same position.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:


    Morning Dave, will still not make any difference to SNP whatsoever. Another royal sprog to be paid for i snot such a great event. After Lizzie they will fade to obscurity.

    Out of curiosity Malcolm - and this is a genuine question that I have always wanted to know the answer to - why did Salmond propose keeping the Queen in the event of a Yes vote? I always thought an independent Scotland would automatically be a republic, which has clearly always been a popular option there. Yet he didn't propose it.
    ydoethur, whilst true that there are many who are not inclined to the Royal family in general , the Queen is very popular and I think it would not go down well whilst she is around. Not so sure how people would see it after she is gone but would not be even an option to suggest it till then.
    Smart politics - the precise details of how an Indy Scotland would operate and how it would look can evolve over time, no need to make the change more sudden and dramatic than needed.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    Fine Pies (Est 1745)

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
    APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

    Jack, with the greatest of respect, but why are you persisting with this nonsense?

    You're an established, informed and amusing poster but you're making yourself look very stupid.
    Because Rogerdamus has ensured with his premier ARSE denier status that I shall be proved conclusively correct. :smile:

    If you even bothered to explain the basis and rationale for your preposterous fly in the face of reality predictions, we could at least have a constructive discourse about it. But you refuse to.

    Which speaks volumes frankly....
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Casino_Royale

    So it is the good Lord's poll that is responsible for the Tories being wiped out? I thought it might be something to do with the anti-Scottish theme of the Tory campaign! What do they expect to happen.

    There is no way that Murphy can survive as leader regardless of whether he clings on in his own seat. He boasted that they would not lose a single seat. At best SLAB will fit in a taxi. Also Johann Lamont's silence will not last for much longer. Murphy has been busy blaming her for the impending disaster. In fact it was a case of apres Johann le deluge!

    Jim and the Westminster gang of losers are about to find out the number of friends that Johann still has in Scottish Labour. They are sharpening their knives for him even now.

    It couldn't happen to a nicer person!

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:


    Morning Dave, will still not make any difference to SNP whatsoever. Another royal sprog to be paid for i snot such a great event. After Lizzie they will fade to obscurity.

    Out of curiosity Malcolm - and this is a genuine question that I have always wanted to know the answer to - why did Salmond propose keeping the Queen in the event of a Yes vote? I always thought an independent Scotland would automatically be a republic, which has clearly always been a popular option there. Yet he didn't propose it.
    ydoethur, whilst true that there are many who are not inclined to the Royal family in general , the Queen is very popular and I think it would not go down well whilst she is around. Not so sure how people would see it after she is gone but would not be even an option to suggest it till then.
    Smart politics - the precise details of how an Indy Scotland would operate and how it would look can evolve over time, no need to make the change more sudden and dramatic than needed.
    Absolutely. If Australia and Canada can be independent Commonwealth monarchies, why can't Scotland?

    And if Australia is willing to vote against being a Republic, why risk it in Scotland.

    Independence and Republicanism are two separate issues.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Irritating, just posted a long piece on Norwich and Norfolk and it disappeared. Idiotic.
    In summary (too lazy to re type)
    Norwich South - Lab 40, Green 28, Lib/Con/Kip about 10 each
    Norwich North - Lab 40, Con 39, Kippers will see Chloe booted out and the lovely Jess Asato elected.
    Rest of Norfolk - Blue apart from Norfolk North where Lamb will squeak in with a 2001 type majority, Con gain being denied by a strong Kipper vote in the high teens, Yarmouth a Con hold by a considerable distance considering the dynamic and build up
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    Fine Pies (Est 1745)

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
    APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

    Jack, with the greatest of respect, but why are you persisting with this nonsense?

    You're an established, informed and amusing poster but you're making yourself look very stupid.
    Because Rogerdamus has ensured with his premier ARSE denier status that I shall be proved conclusively correct. :smile:

    If you even bothered to explain the basis and rationale for your preposterous fly in the face of reality predictions, we could at least have a constructive discourse about it. But you refuse to.

    Which speaks volumes frankly....
    ARSE denier.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Bob__Sykes

    ARSE = Arbitrary Ramblings (of the) Senile Elite.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Jackie's 'photo-love' stories were aped hilariously by Dear Deirdre in The Sun as long ago as the late 80s IIRC. I LOL when I saw the first ones - they're just a good spoof on them, just wearing fewer clothes!

    That Mail spoof is SUPERB!
    Financier said:

    A good laugh to start the day.

    Back in the Eighties, Jackie magazine famously published strips of melodramatic teenage romances.

    As the election campaign rolls interminably on, we've decide to create our own photo casebook featuring that ever-flirting pair Ed Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon.

    The teenage Nicola is sweet on the nerdy youngster, but can she seduce him with her charm and wiles when he's only got eyes for her friend Clegg?

    Read on...

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3064879/Ed-Nicola-Jackie-Magazine-special-Scots-lass-loved-independence-met-class-nerd-anorak-Ed-fall-wee-mouse-liker-her.html

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Will Scobie the Lab candidate in South Thanet, has retweeted this (I believe this is known as past vote weighting)

    https://twitter.com/MrsTaraPlumbing/status/594414229165342720

    I've got roughly equal profit there on Mckinlay and Farage. Scobie is back in the red. I don't think he wins.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    On topic, whilst a complete buggers muddle is still the most likely outcome, it is still possible that we will be gathering here on Friday after the polls failed to spot a late-breaking surge to the Tories, with a wipe-out of Labour in Scotland, a Farage-free HoC, a very poor performance by Labour in Yorkshire, the Midlands and the south outside London, a minibus of LibDems with no Nick Clegg, with Cameron back in Downing Street and us all waiting for the resignation of Ed Miliband as party leader.....

    Which would have to rank as one of the most astonishing elections any of us have known.

    IF that happened*, do you think his opponents might accept that Cameron did ok? Or will he just be "lucky"?


    * Unlikely, but not impossible, IMV
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    scotslass said:

    Casino_Royale

    So it is the good Lord's poll that is responsible for the Tories being wiped out? I thought it might be something to do with the anti-Scottish theme of the Tory campaign! What do they expect to happen.

    There is no way that Murphy can survive as leader regardless of whether he clings on in his own seat. He boasted that they would not lose a single seat. At best SLAB will fit in a taxi. Also Johann Lamont's silence will not last for much longer. Murphy has been busy blaming her for the impending disaster. In fact it was a case of apres Johann le deluge!

    Jim and the Westminster gang of losers are about to find out the number of friends that Johann still has in Scottish Labour. They are sharpening their knives for him even now.

    It couldn't happen to a nicer person!

    Now be fair, scotslass, he's kept that promise. Short of something dramatic, he's not going to lose a single seat.

    Mind you, I doubt if he meant that he planned on losing all of them, but technically...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Plymouth
    "A WANNABE model and would-be Labour councillor – currently standing as a Labour councillor for Gainsborough North – has been jailed for more than two years for a festival ticket fraud involving more than £100,000.

    Read more: http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/Walter-Mitty-wannabe-model-Labour-councillor/story-26426716-detail/story.html
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    On Scotterdammerung:

    There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.

    Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?

    This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.

    Interesting times!

    In 2011, Labour got only 26% of the List vote. The PR portion gives the chance to vote Green, SSP, Solidarity to people who vote Labour on the FPTP seat. It is also very likely that SLAB will lose every single FPTP Constituency Seat they hold (they currently have 15).

    Consider this. Labour have imploded and their List vote, at this point, can be predicted to be between 10% and 20% in each region. This means in 5 of the Regions they can only hope for 2 seats and in the other 3 regions 1 seat. The prediction for SLAB at Holyrood 2016 should be 13 seats.

    Finally consider this.

    There will be : -

    30 or so former MPs
    20 or so unsuccessful Westminster Candidates
    15 FPTP MSPs
    22 List MSPs
    10 or so senior councillors expecting elevation
    10 or so senior party hacks expecting a shot

    That's ONE HUNDRED AND SEVEN greedy, ambitious, determined Labour Party careerists all scrambling over a position at the top of each list or second place in 5 of the lists.

    Imagine the level of infighting, backstabbing, smearing and all the other underhand tactics you can imagine with 107 cat's in a sack all fighting for their very existence. Then imagine how that will look to anyone else.

    Some people think that Holyrood's list system can save Scottish Labour. Think about all these details and ask yourself, are you sure?
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:


    Morning Dave, will still not make any difference to SNP whatsoever. Another royal sprog to be paid for i snot such a great event. After Lizzie they will fade to obscurity.

    Out of curiosity Malcolm - and this is a genuine question that I have always wanted to know the answer to - why did Salmond propose keeping the Queen in the event of a Yes vote? I always thought an independent Scotland would automatically be a republic, which has clearly always been a popular option there. Yet he didn't propose it.
    ydoethur, whilst true that there are many who are not inclined to the Royal family in general , the Queen is very popular and I think it would not go down well whilst she is around. Not so sure how people would see it after she is gone but would not be even an option to suggest it till then.
    Smart politics - the precise details of how an Indy Scotland would operate and how it would look can evolve over time, no need to make the change more sudden and dramatic than needed.
    Absolutely. If Australia and Canada can be independent Commonwealth monarchies, why can't Scotland?

    And if Australia is willing to vote against being a Republic, why risk it in Scotland.

    Independence and Republicanism are two separate issues.
    There is nothing to stop Scotland being independent - if you call not having your own currency being independent. Scottish politicians have saddled the UK with a vast load of debt. Scotland's share is hardly a good start for a country with no currency, central bank, stockmarket and with two major banks heavily in debt.

    If the EU would have them, Scotland can join the Eurozone. But do not tell me that is being independent.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    Fine Pies (Est 1745)

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
    APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

    Jack, with the greatest of respect, but why are you persisting with this nonsense?

    You're an established, informed and amusing poster but you're making yourself look very stupid.
    Because Rogerdamus has ensured with his premier ARSE denier status that I shall be proved conclusively correct. :smile:

    If you even bothered to explain the basis and rationale for your preposterous fly in the face of reality predictions, we could at least have a constructive discourse about it. But you refuse to.

    Which speaks volumes frankly....
    ARSE denier.

    PB regulars who are sceptical of the flatlining YouGov should take notice of the consistency of the products of Jacks ARSE. I do not think that the ARSE has varied outside Con 295-310 and Lab 245-260 since it replaced the McARSE in the autumn.

    Of course both cannot be right...

    I wonder if Jack is willing to venture an opinion on Eds prospects as PM?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    edited May 2015
    ydoethur said:

    scotslass said:

    Casino_Royale

    So it is the good Lord's poll that is responsible for the Tories being wiped out? I thought it might be something to do with the anti-Scottish theme of the Tory campaign! What do they expect to happen.

    There is no way that Murphy can survive as leader regardless of whether he clings on in his own seat. He boasted that they would not lose a single seat. At best SLAB will fit in a taxi. Also Johann Lamont's silence will not last for much longer. Murphy has been busy blaming her for the impending disaster. In fact it was a case of apres Johann le deluge!

    Jim and the Westminster gang of losers are about to find out the number of friends that Johann still has in Scottish Labour. They are sharpening their knives for him even now.

    It couldn't happen to a nicer person!

    Now be fair, scotslass, he's kept that promise. Short of something dramatic, he's not going to lose a single seat.

    Mind you, I doubt if he meant that he planned on losing all of them, but technically...
    So he did. As I recall, I wasn't the only one who thought at the time, ooh, that ambiguity's tempting fate ... but we have to wait and see.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. kle4, God knows. I get why drivers like it so much (one mistake and you're likely out of it) but the race has practically nothing going for it. Along with Singapore, it's the worst track on the calendar. And it doesn't pay a race fee.

    I agree entirely it should be axed. As you say, calendar space is finite. And it's stupid making Spa pay [and be in some doubt] but going to Monaco for nothing.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    SLab about to get their first taste of Hertz Donut
    The Liberals at least are used to cycling to work on a tandem
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    Mr. kle4, God knows. I get why drivers like it so much (one mistake and you're likely out of it) but the race has practically nothing going for it. Along with Singapore, it's the worst track on the calendar. And it doesn't pay a race fee.

    I agree entirely it should be axed. As you say, calendar space is finite. And it's stupid making Spa pay [and be in some doubt] but going to Monaco for nothing.

    Wait, Monaco doesn't even have to pay a fee to be on the calendar? Now I'm even madder.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Will Scobie the Lab candidate in South Thanet, has retweeted this (I believe this is known as past vote weighting)

    Will hasn't got a Scooby.
    Labour have been third in the last six polls for that seat.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    Fine Pies (Est 1745)

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
    APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

    Jack, with the greatest of respect, but why are you persisting with this nonsense?

    You're an established, informed and amusing poster but you're making yourself look very stupid.
    Because Rogerdamus has ensured with his premier ARSE denier status that I shall be proved conclusively correct. :smile:

    If you even bothered to explain the basis and rationale for your preposterous fly in the face of reality predictions, we could at least have a constructive discourse about it. But you refuse to.

    Which speaks volumes frankly....
    Temper, temper. Only six sleeps to go until you can laugh your own ARSE off at the inaccuracy of Jack's predictions, or not. Surely the toys can stay in the pram until then?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. kle4, aye. 'Prestige'.

    It's ridiculous.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Smarmeron said:

    @Bob__Sykes

    ARSE = Arbitrary Ramblings (of the) Senile Elite.

    Either that or it's meant to be some sort of Mornington Crescent type spoof.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    edited May 2015
    Can't understand why Labour's chief financier (McCluskey/Unite) expressly backing corrupt Lutfur Rahman/Galloway/Livingstone against the High Court and against democracy hasn't made more waves. The deafening silence from Labour HQ on this is extraordinary (not). And don't get me started on the BBC.

    Any effect on votes?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Morris_Dancer

    The sponsors love it, and he who pays the piper?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Changes since Jan are

    Con +9 UKIP -8

    Fearties.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    Fine Pies (Est 1745)

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
    APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

    Jack, with the greatest of respect, but why are you persisting with this nonsense?

    You're an established, informed and amusing poster but you're making yourself look very stupid.
    I'd probably add 20-25 to the Labour seat total, but there's nothing implausible about Jack's numbers if the telephone polls are correct.
    His SNP numbers are implausible on current polling.
  • peterbusspeterbuss Posts: 109

    Parliamentary party take note

    @PaulGoodmanCH: If the Tories win more seats but Labour gains office, over half of party members think Cameron should remain leader http://t.co/Wmlme8uV2Y

    I don't think he'd want to, though.

    I think you are right Nick and I doubt if he would be given the option (sadly). May depend on how fragile a Miliband Govt looks to be i.e if another GE is imminent then he might stay on.

  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    scotslass said:

    Casino_Royale

    So it is the good Lord's poll that is responsible for the Tories being wiped out? I thought it might be something to do with the anti-Scottish theme of the Tory campaign! What do they expect to happen.

    There is no way that Murphy can survive as leader regardless of whether he clings on in his own seat. He boasted that they would not lose a single seat. At best SLAB will fit in a taxi. Also Johann Lamont's silence will not last for much longer. Murphy has been busy blaming her for the impending disaster. In fact it was a case of apres Johann le deluge!

    Jim and the Westminster gang of losers are about to find out the number of friends that Johann still has in Scottish Labour. They are sharpening their knives for him even now.

    It couldn't happen to a nicer person!

    Ian Davidson starts the recriminations before the election is even lost:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11575502/Ed-Miliband-must-take-over-Scottish-campaign-from-failing-Jim-Murphy.html
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455

    JackW said:

    Will the nation follow suit and shortly enter into a lengthy period of Labour .... ??

    Nah. We'll be delivered of that.
    I don't know. Labour have the ground troops for a big push.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Ishmael_X said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    Fine Pies (Est 1745)

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
    APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

    Jack, with the greatest of respect, but why are you persisting with this nonsense?

    You're an established, informed and amusing poster but you're making yourself look very stupid.
    Because Rogerdamus has ensured with his premier ARSE denier status that I shall be proved conclusively correct. :smile:

    If you even bothered to explain the basis and rationale for your preposterous fly in the face of reality predictions, we could at least have a constructive discourse about it. But you refuse to.

    Which speaks volumes frankly....
    Temper, temper. Only six sleeps to go until you can laugh your own ARSE off at the inaccuracy of Jack's predictions, or not. Surely the toys can stay in the pram until then?
    Or five
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,167

    Malcolm - while you're around, any thoughts on the 'p.s.' bit in the leader? If the SNP do score as well as the polls report, what would for you be the one definitive image of the night?

    A quivering Carmichael lip would certainly be the moment of the night, if it were to come to pass.

    We can but hope.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,772
    Carnyx said:


    So he did. As I recall, I wasn't the only one who thought at the time, ooh, that ambiguity's tempting fate ... but we have to wait and see.

    It's definitely one for a new edition of the Matthew Parris 'Read My Lips/Mission Accomplished' book. Assuming, that is, that they lose all their Scottish seats, which at the moment would definitely appear to be the value bet in the election.

    Wouldn't it be funny, in a strange way, if the Liberal Democrats held Orkney and therefore had more seats in Scotland than Labour?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    calum said:

    scotslass said:

    Casino_Royale

    So it is the good Lord's poll that is responsible for the Tories being wiped out? I thought it might be something to do with the anti-Scottish theme of the Tory campaign! What do they expect to happen.

    There is no way that Murphy can survive as leader regardless of whether he clings on in his own seat. He boasted that they would not lose a single seat. At best SLAB will fit in a taxi. Also Johann Lamont's silence will not last for much longer. Murphy has been busy blaming her for the impending disaster. In fact it was a case of apres Johann le deluge!

    Jim and the Westminster gang of losers are about to find out the number of friends that Johann still has in Scottish Labour. They are sharpening their knives for him even now.

    It couldn't happen to a nicer person!

    Ian Davidson starts the recriminations before the election is even lost:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11575502/Ed-Miliband-must-take-over-Scottish-campaign-from-failing-Jim-Murphy.html
    Och, he's getting his retaliation in first.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Smarmeron said:

    @Bob__Sykes

    ARSE = Arbitrary Ramblings (of the) Senile Elite.

    Either that or it's meant to be some sort of Mornington Crescent type spoof.
    Why do you so wish to believe bad news? I think that Jack is optimistic for the Conservatives, but not massively so.

    Running through UKPR's list of 100 Conservative defences, I'd put Labour favourites in 26, TCTC in 18, UKIP favourite in 1, and the Conservatives favourites in 55.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,234
    If the Tories lose seats like Peterborough Due to a high Kipper vote share, and there is a possible second election, they need to switch to a leader to bring those Kippers back on board. You all know who I think that should be.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,167
    edited May 2015
    Carnyx said:



    ydoethur said:

    scotslass said:

    Casino_Royale

    So it is the good Lord's poll that is responsible for the Tories being wiped out? I thought it might be something to do with the anti-Scottish theme of the Tory campaign! What do they expect to happen.

    There is no way that Murphy can survive as leader regardless of whether he clings on in his own seat. He boasted that they would not lose a single seat. At best SLAB will fit in a taxi. Also Johann Lamont's silence will not last for much longer. Murphy has been busy blaming her for the impending disaster. In fact it was a case of apres Johann le deluge!

    Jim and the Westminster gang of losers are about to find out the number of friends that Johann still has in Scottish Labour. They are sharpening their knives for him even now.

    It couldn't happen to a nicer person!

    Now be fair, scotslass, he's kept that promise. Short of something dramatic, he's not going to lose a single seat.

    Mind you, I doubt if he meant that he planned on losing all of them, but technically...
    So he did. As I recall, I wasn't the only one who thought at the time, ooh, that ambiguity's tempting fate ... but we have to wait and see.

    He wasn't even that ambiguous during the bright, confident morning of his leadership.

    '“I’m going to get stuck in and I am determined to hold every seat that we currently have,” said Mr Murphy, who on Saturday won a comfortable election as Labour’s sixth new leader in Scotland in 14 years.
    The election of the energetic, assured and media-savvy Mr Murphy offers Scottish Labour a chance to regain momentum against the SNP, which has enjoyed surging support despite defeat in September’s independence referendum.
    Though the new leader is often described as a “Blairite” on Labour’s right, he made clear that his initial strategy will rest in part on pledges to fight inequality, a stance aimed at shoring up leftwing supporters’ loyalties amid SNP efforts to cast itself as the party of social justice.'

    http://tinyurl.com/onwsdca

    With hindsight, some cracking propositions in that piece.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    kle4 said:


    For some reason I can hardly even seem to log in to PB from my iPad. The only time I can actually recall it working was the night of the IndyRef.

    I can read it on the iPad (just about) but can't log in or comment, and the page layout is inpredictably/variously OK (why?) or a complete mess (why?): type-size can be either OK or ridiculously small and unsizeable, LH sidebar usually overlaying comments, pitch of comments column irremediably wider than the window.

    Just about tolerable but for full use of the site, it's back to the desktop Mac. Election night is going to give me a lot of exercise.

  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:


    Morning Dave, will still not make any difference to SNP whatsoever. Another royal sprog to be paid for i snot such a great event. After Lizzie they will fade to obscurity.

    Out of curiosity Malcolm - and this is a genuine question that I have always wanted to know the answer to - why did Salmond propose keeping the Queen in the event of a Yes vote? I always thought an independent Scotland would automatically be a republic, which has clearly always been a popular option there. Yet he didn't propose it.
    ydoethur, whilst true that there are many who are not inclined to the Royal family in general , the Queen is very popular and I think it would not go down well whilst she is around. Not so sure how people would see it after she is gone but would not be even an option to suggest it till then.
    Yes or no to the monarchy is the least of Scotland's problems. The future 3 Kings are assured which is more than you can say for any future Scottish president.
    But leaving a popular paying its way monarchy to the English is fine by me. I can just see the tourists to see the official home of President Salmond.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,234
    Prodicus said:

    kle4 said:


    For some reason I can hardly even seem to log in to PB from my iPad. The only time I can actually recall it working was the night of the IndyRef.

    I can read it on the iPad (just about) but can't log in or comment, and the page layout is inpredictably/variously OK (why?) or a complete mess (why?): type-size can be either OK or ridiculously small and unsizeable, LH sidebar usually overlaying comments, pitch of comments column irremediably wider than the window.

    Just about tolerable but for full use of the site, it's back to the desktop Mac. Election night is going to give me a lot of exercise.

    Works great on a Samsung tablet!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    If the Tories lost a lot of winnable seats due to UKIP and lose the GE as a result, I hope they react in a completely crazy way and make Ken Clarke the new leader, that would be hilarious. Double down on it, Tories.
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Likely tory to ld switch in the Bolger Forest of Dean. hobbithole. She Voted tory for the first time ever in 2010 to get rid of the nutter brown but now "the Conservatives hate tteachers".
    Tory posters in the lanes around our village defaced with ukip graffiti. Not nice to see.

  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    @JackW
    JackW- I have backed the veracity of your posterior with some head earned readies.

    Supposing, the unthinkable situation arises where your rear end could possibly be wrong- I'm sorry, this situation is beyond imagination, and I ask for your forgiveness in advance for even questioning your cheeks, but...., well this is difficult to ask.... can we claim some kind of compensation from your all seeing hole if things do not go quite as predicted.

    Yours faithfully
    Tyson

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Smarmeron, perhaps. But, if so, the sponsors are damned fools.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Prodicus said:

    kle4 said:


    For some reason I can hardly even seem to log in to PB from my iPad. The only time I can actually recall it working was the night of the IndyRef.

    I can read it on the iPad (just about) but can't log in or comment, and the page layout is inpredictably/variously OK (why?) or a complete mess (why?): type-size can be either OK or ridiculously small and unsizeable, LH sidebar usually overlaying comments, pitch of comments column irremediably wider than the window.

    Just about tolerable but for full use of the site, it's back to the desktop Mac. Election night is going to give me a lot of exercise.

    Works great on a Samsung tablet!
    politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com should work well on tablets if the main site doesn't.
  • Wight_ToryWight_Tory Posts: 4
    On the Isle of Wight, there is a very strong anti-Andrew Turner (Con) thing going on, me thinks that there is every chance for a LIb Gain here. :-(
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Test
  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    Prodicus said:

    kle4 said:


    For some reason I can hardly even seem to log in to PB from my iPad. The only time I can actually recall it working was the night of the IndyRef.

    I can read it on the iPad (just about) but can't log in or comment, and the page layout is inpredictably/variously OK (why?) or a complete mess (why?): type-size can be either OK or ridiculously small and unsizeable, LH sidebar usually overlaying comments, pitch of comments column irremediably wider than the window.

    Just about tolerable but for full use of the site, it's back to the desktop Mac. Election night is going to give me a lot of exercise.

    PB on iPad works fine with Google Chrome browser installed. Just avoid the inbuilt Safari.

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Prodicus said:

    kle4 said:


    For some reason I can hardly even seem to log in to PB from my iPad. The only time I can actually recall it working was the night of the IndyRef.

    I can read it on the iPad (just about) but can't log in or comment, and the page layout is inpredictably/variously OK (why?) or a complete mess (why?): type-size can be either OK or ridiculously small and unsizeable, LH sidebar usually overlaying comments, pitch of comments column irremediably wider than the window.

    Just about tolerable but for full use of the site, it's back to the desktop Mac. Election night is going to give me a lot of exercise.

    Any better at http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/ ?

    Main site works fine on android tablet.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    Alistair said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    Fine Pies (Est 1745)

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
    APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

    Jack, with the greatest of respect, but why are you persisting with this nonsense?

    You're an established, informed and amusing poster but you're making yourself look very stupid.
    I'd probably add 20-25 to the Labour seat total, but there's nothing implausible about Jack's numbers if the telephone polls are correct.
    His SNP numbers are implausible on current polling.
    Just what you would expect from a Tory , and his view of Scotland from London is amusing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    edited May 2015
    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the penulimate ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 28th April Projection) :

    Con 306 (+1) .. Lab 247 (+1) .. LibDem 28 (-2) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 20 seats short of a majority

    Turnout Projection .. 67.5% (NC)
    ......................................................................................

    "JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

    Bury North - Con Hold
    Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
    Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
    Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold from TCTC
    Cambridge - LibDem Hold
    Ipswich - Con Hold
    Watford - TCTC
    Croydon Central - Con Hold
    Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain
    Cornwall North - TCTC
    Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
    Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
    Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

    Changes From 28 Apr - Warwickshire North moves from TCTC to Likely Con Gain

    TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
    Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
    Gain/Hold - Over 2500
    .......................................................................................

    ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
    APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

    I'm guessing Murphy is now a HOLD and SNP now Gain DCT amongst the internals of your ARSE.

    At a guess your Scottish seats are:

    LD:

    Carmichael
    Thurso
    Moore
    Kennedy



    Conservative:
    ------------ (See later)

    Labour:

    Rutherglen;
    Edi South
    East Renfrewshire
    Dunf West Fife
    Glasgow NE
    Coatbridge
    Kirkcaldy
    Paisley and Renfrewshire North
    Glenrothes
    East Lothian
    Aberdeen South
    Another Edinburgh seat

    & One of Dougie, Swinson or Mundell





  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Dair said:

    On Scotterdammerung:

    There will be a lot of unemployed SLAB MPs shortly. No doubt many are fairly useless lobby fodder, but there must be a fair number who are reasonably talented and not wanting to give up politics.

    Surely the obvious outlet is to become MSP's next year?

    This would have two effects: some degree of opposition to SNP hegemony; and secondly to make Scottish politics even more inward looking.

    Interesting times!

    In 2011, Labour got only 26% of the List vote. The PR portion gives the chance to vote Green, SSP, Solidarity to people who vote Labour on the FPTP seat. It is also very likely that SLAB will lose every single FPTP Constituency Seat they hold (they currently have 15).

    Consider this. Labour have imploded and their List vote, at this point, can be predicted to be between 10% and 20% in each region. This means in 5 of the Regions they can only hope for 2 seats and in the other 3 regions 1 seat. The prediction for SLAB at Holyrood 2016 should be 13 seats.

    Finally consider this.

    There will be : -

    30 or so former MPs
    20 or so unsuccessful Westminster Candidates
    15 FPTP MSPs
    22 List MSPs
    10 or so senior councillors expecting elevation
    10 or so senior party hacks expecting a shot

    That's ONE HUNDRED AND SEVEN greedy, ambitious, determined Labour Party careerists all scrambling over a position at the top of each list or second place in 5 of the lists.

    Imagine the level of infighting, backstabbing, smearing and all the other underhand tactics you can imagine with 107 cat's in a sack all fighting for their very existence. Then imagine how that will look to anyone else.

    Some people think that Holyrood's list system can save Scottish Labour. Think about all these details and ask yourself, are you sure?
    Suppose Miliband does become PM. Suppose Scottish Labour does then indulge in a massive bout of infighting both over blame and over places on the lists. What odds would you set on the Tories becoming the official opposition after 2016? Is a split along the lines of SNP 45 / Con 17 / Lab 16 / Grn 11 / LD 6 / Oth 5 that far out of the question?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Pong said:

    Prodicus said:

    kle4 said:


    For some reason I can hardly even seem to log in to PB from my iPad. The only time I can actually recall it working was the night of the IndyRef.

    I can read it on the iPad (just about) but can't log in or comment, and the page layout is inpredictably/variously OK (why?) or a complete mess (why?): type-size can be either OK or ridiculously small and unsizeable, LH sidebar usually overlaying comments, pitch of comments column irremediably wider than the window.

    Just about tolerable but for full use of the site, it's back to the desktop Mac. Election night is going to give me a lot of exercise.

    Works great on a Samsung tablet!
    politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com should work well on tablets if the main site doesn't.
    Just tried it - much obliged!

    Now I can get less done at work as a result.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:


    So he did. As I recall, I wasn't the only one who thought at the time, ooh, that ambiguity's tempting fate ... but we have to wait and see.

    It's definitely one for a new edition of the Matthew Parris 'Read My Lips/Mission Accomplished' book. Assuming, that is, that they lose all their Scottish seats, which at the moment would definitely appear to be the value bet in the election.

    Wouldn't it be funny, in a strange way, if the Liberal Democrats held Orkney and therefore had more seats in Scotland than Labour?
    Another Murphyism would be that one about being astonished at finding how easy it was to outwith the SNP, as Wings has been enjoying raking up on Twitter to add to your collection.

    And just been reading this in the Scotsman (he's talking about the current campaigning, I think, but the article isn't explicit):

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/interview-jim-murphy-laments-labour-complacency-1-3761161

    “Is this the hardest thing I’ve ever done?” he says. “Of course not. Growing up in a housing scheme a couple of miles from here was harder than this. Living in a caravan with my mum and dad, that’s harder. Moving to South Africa during apartheid and trying to dodge [national service in] the South African army, and living in a house full of ANC supporters, that’s harder. Moving back home by myself and being out of work, and knocking on people’s doors, and asking for permission to wash people’s cars for 50 pence a time – all of that is harder. This isn’t even in my top ten.”
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Sean_F said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Bob__Sykes

    ARSE = Arbitrary Ramblings (of the) Senile Elite.

    Either that or it's meant to be some sort of Mornington Crescent type spoof.
    Why do you so wish to believe bad news? I think that Jack is optimistic for the Conservatives, but not massively so.

    Running through UKPR's list of 100 Conservative defences, I'd put Labour favourites in 26, TCTC in 18, UKIP favourite in 1, and the Conservatives favourites in 55.
    Betfair offers youu massive value as LAB is 8/11 or worse in 39 con held seats
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    The ARSE is forecasting a double digit Labour return in Scotland, which means it is also forecasting less than 20 Labour gains elsewhere. Hmmm. My guess is that if Labour gets 10+ seats in Scotland it will exceed its current seat total.

    It's worth remembering the ARSE predicted a much bigger No victory than turned out to be the case. Maybe it does not work that well north of the border.

    Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister, but not for the reasons the ARSE implies.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Prodicus said:

    kle4 said:


    For some reason I can hardly even seem to log in to PB from my iPad. The only time I can actually recall it working was the night of the IndyRef.

    I can read it on the iPad (just about) but can't log in or comment, and the page layout is inpredictably/variously OK (why?) or a complete mess (why?): type-size can be either OK or ridiculously small and unsizeable, LH sidebar usually overlaying comments, pitch of comments column irremediably wider than the window.

    Just about tolerable but for full use of the site, it's back to the desktop Mac. Election night is going to give me a lot of exercise.

    I have the same issue. It works on the Chrome app but not the default Safari.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    edited May 2015
    Rejoice all, rejoice all- the royal baby is due.
    DC must have been fist pumping big time this morrow "yes, yes." I almost heard him here in Italy.

    I wonder what they will call her? Victory.

    The Sun's May 8th headlines- "it woz the royal prog wot wunnit"
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    For anyone who has trouble using a mobile or ipad device - have you tried using the back office page instead?

    It's this one politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/2539/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-david-herdson-the-election-remains-far-from-a-foregone-con/p3

    To refresh the whole discussion/get a new thread - click on Home and a listing of all previous threads appears. You'll need to click on Read The Full Story Here to get the main page - but after reading it, go Back and then all the comments are there without the adverts/menu bars that seem to cause an issue. Use your usual Refresh option to load more comments on the current page.
    Prodicus said:

    kle4 said:


    For some reason I can hardly even seem to log in to PB from my iPad. The only time I can actually recall it working was the night of the IndyRef.

    I can read it on the iPad (just about) but can't log in or comment, and the page layout is inpredictably/variously OK (why?) or a complete mess (why?): type-size can be either OK or ridiculously small and unsizeable, LH sidebar usually overlaying comments, pitch of comments column irremediably wider than the window.

    Just about tolerable but for full use of the site, it's back to the desktop Mac. Election night is going to give me a lot of exercise.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    edited May 2015

    On the Isle of Wight, there is a very strong anti-Andrew Turner (Con) thing going on, me thinks that there is every chance for a LIb Gain here. :-(

    Lib ?!

    I've got it down as a possible island independent or UKIP gain - but the LIBERALS ?!

    Surely not.

    One to not touch with a 50 foot barge poll betting wise.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,167
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:


    So he did. As I recall, I wasn't the only one who thought at the time, ooh, that ambiguity's tempting fate ... but we have to wait and see.

    It's definitely one for a new edition of the Matthew Parris 'Read My Lips/Mission Accomplished' book. Assuming, that is, that they lose all their Scottish seats, which at the moment would definitely appear to be the value bet in the election.

    Wouldn't it be funny, in a strange way, if the Liberal Democrats held Orkney and therefore had more seats in Scotland than Labour?
    Another Murphyism would be that one about being astonished at finding how easy it was to outwith the SNP, as Wings has been enjoying raking up on Twitter to add to your collection.

    And just been reading this in the Scotsman (he's talking about the current campaigning, I think, but the article isn't explicit):

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/interview-jim-murphy-laments-labour-complacency-1-3761161

    “Is this the hardest thing I’ve ever done?” he says. “Of course not. Growing up in a housing scheme a couple of miles from here was harder than this. Living in a caravan with my mum and dad, that’s harder. Moving to South Africa during apartheid and trying to dodge [national service in] the South African army, and living in a house full of ANC supporters, that’s harder. Moving back home by myself and being out of work, and knocking on people’s doors, and asking for permission to wash people’s cars for 50 pence a time – all of that is harder. This isn’t even in my top ten.”
    Jeezo, his martyr complex has obviously been going on for a long time.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    Pulpstar said:

    On the Isle of Wight, there is a very strong anti-Andrew Turner (Con) thing going on, me thinks that there is every chance for a LIb Gain here. :-(

    Lib ?!

    I've got it down as a possible island independent or UKIP gain - but the LIBERALS ?!

    Surely not.

    One to not touch with a 50 foot barge poll betting wise.
    Andrew Turner's campaign does look like a disaster in the making.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    tyson said:

    Rejoice all, rejoice all- the royal baby is due.
    DC must have been fist pumping big time this morrow "yes, yes." I almost heard him here in Italy.

    I wonder what they will call her? Victory.

    The Sun's May 8th headlines- "it woz the royal prog wot wunnit"

    I'd have thought given the Tory position is the one that needs to improve, rather than Labour's, he would want as many days possible to attempt positive Tory stories in an effort to change things, which will be harder with more royal coverage.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,045

    On the Isle of Wight, there is a very strong anti-Andrew Turner (Con) thing going on, me thinks that there is every chance for a LIb Gain here. :-(

    You're the second new poster in as many days saying Andrew Turner isn't going to win.
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    Whoever becomes Prime Minister, please appoint Kay Burley press secretary
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:


    I always thought an independent Scotland would automatically be a republic, which has clearly always been a popular option there. Yet he didn't propose it.

    Immediate thought: How does the Jacobite News Network view this mystery?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Tory, welcome to pb.com.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On the Isle of Wight, there is a very strong anti-Andrew Turner (Con) thing going on, me thinks that there is every chance for a LIb Gain here. :-(

    Lib ?!

    I've got it down as a possible island independent or UKIP gain - but the LIBERALS ?!

    Surely not.

    One to not touch with a 50 foot barge poll betting wise.
    Andrew Turner's campaign does look like a disaster in the making.
    A real off the radar seat. It'd have to be a spectacular disaster of almost unseen proportions involving completely libelous stuff to get him to lose though. His main challenger is the Liberals who are collapsing everywhere, and UKIP/Island independents let him through the middle - surely.
This discussion has been closed.