Could this be a candidate for the unexplained £12bn welfare cuts.
There are lots of benefits that needs tidying up. Pension tax relief at high end is just ridiculous - should be 20% all round. Child benefit for more than 3 kids stupid too. £10 winter allowance for Christmas must cost £20 to manage. Roll it up into pension.
I think the Christmas bonus and winter fuel allowance are paid as benefits not part of the pension, so difficult to easily do until male and female pension ages have finally been aligned. As most people pay their bills monthly now it might be better to pay the WFA in 6 monthly instalments over the winter rather than one lump sum - by adding it to the pension.
Which means it would then be taxable. Which is sensible.
Incidentally a commentator on Sky, who is even more over the top about the Royal Evenmt than the BBC normally are, has referred to the current Royal Family as being descended from Old King Cole.
I really wish I’d paid more attention to the children’s upbringing!
FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.
On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?
Oh do behave - the royals do a job for a fraction of the cost of an elected head of state (even before the costs of elections are factored in). Is anyone who is does a job paid for the state scrounging, in your book?
FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.
On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?
Oh do behave - the royals do a job for a fraction of the cost of an elected head of state (even before the costs of elections are factored in). Is anyone who is does a job paid for the state scrounging, in your book?
Nor do you get any tourists in for an elected head-of-state.
FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.
On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?
Oh do behave - the royals do a job for a fraction of the cost of an elected head of state (even before the costs of elections are factored in). Is anyone who is does a job paid for the state scrounging, in your book?
Nor do you get any tourists in for an elected head-of-state.
Could this be a candidate for the unexplained £12bn welfare cuts.
There are lots of benefits that needs tidying up. Pension tax relief at high end is just ridiculous - should be 20% all round. Child benefit for more than 3 kids stupid too. £10 winter allowance for Christmas must cost £20 to manage. Roll it up into pension.
I think the Christmas bonus and winter fuel allowance are paid as benefits not part of the pension, so difficult to easily do until male and female pension ages have finally been aligned. As most people pay their bills monthly now it might be better to pay the WFA in 6 monthly instalments over the winter rather than one lump sum - by adding it to the pension.
Which means it would then be taxable. Which is sensible.
Incidentally a commentator on Sky, who is even more over the top about the Royal Evenmt than the BBC normally are, has referred to the current Royal Family as being descended from Old King Cole.
I really wish I’d paid more attention to the children’s upbringing!
Well, technically yes, the current monarch can be traced back, via a circuitous route through the various Welsh princedoms pre C12 to the various candidates for Arthur Pendragon and to Coel Hen, the basis of the Old King Cole rhyme and theoretically back to the legendary first king in Britain, Brutus. This all hangs on the disputed lineage of the 14th and 15th centuries and whether the current crop of Royals have an ounce of actual Royal blood in them. And indeed, if that matters in the slightest.
"Why has such a consensus developed? Much of it is surely due to the monotony of the YouGov and Populus poll results, the most frequent pollsters and also the most stable in output. The result is that that each additional poll reinforces confidence that they must be right and hence gives an impression of where the election’s heading. In a similar vein, if everyone interprets those polls in the same way then ‘most likely’ tends towards the apparently inevitable simply by reaffirmation.
What you are really saying David is that the polls are distorting the true picture and leading the comentariat, especially where the new MINOR parties are concerned. Which is what I have been saying for months.
I had a nice experience about half an hour ago. Was out shopping here in the Hague, which is on the Dutch coast, when I heard an instantly familiar sound in the sky - a Merlin engine. Looked up and saw a Lancaster passing right overhead headed back out to sea towards the UK, followed a few seconds later by a Spitfire. Everyone was looking up and was then talking about it. Funny how such a simple thing can put you in a positive mood.
Attlee did not expect to win in 1945. At least, not by such a margin. Someone’s diary records that on the morning when all, the results were declared ..... there was a delay in counting the postal, servicemen’s, votes ...... the subject wasn’t even discussed at breakfast in the Attlee household.
But Attlee was famously phlegmatic. I love the story of his exchange with a radio reporter on election eve:
Eager reporter: "Mr Attllee, do you have one final message to add to the British people as they prepare to vote?" Attlee: "No."
Once, many years ago, what was then S. Rhodesia declared it’s independence under a white minority government. The late Jeremy Thorpe suggested bombing the insurgents, as they were seen by most people, although not the Tory Right.
Shortly afterwards, canvassing one of the blues areas of the town where I lived on behalf of the Liberals I was several times "shown off" the premises for supporting “that bomber”!
And yes, it was “bomber”!
I was at my (international) school when it happened, and at the next "public affairs quiz", a question was, "Who is the Prime Minister of Rhodesia?". Correct answer was "Harold Wilson", since nobody had recognised Smith.
Atlee was hilarious by all accounts, and didn't take himself too seriously. There was a fabulous account of him in a recent LRB - how he responded to canvassers who didn't recognise him, what he said to sacked cabinet ministers who were not up to it etc
Says something about the change in the Labour Party since the 60s: before then I would have been a fervent supporter. Since then they've given the centre ground over to the Tories in England, and are now losing it in Scotland/Wales too.
Ever read the concerns of Trade Unionists in the Beveridge report committee hearings? I suspect those hardworking, patriotic and caring folk are now turning in their grave at the way in which the welfare state has turned people away from self reliance and personal responsibility.
FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.
On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?
Oh do behave - the royals do a job for a fraction of the cost of an elected head of state (even before the costs of elections are factored in). Is anyone who is does a job paid for the state scrounging, in your book?
Nor do you get any tourists in for an elected head-of-state.
That's right - no tourists in Washington DC, Rome or Paris.
FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.
On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?
Oh do behave - the royals do a job for a fraction of the cost of an elected head of state (even before the costs of elections are factored in). Is anyone who is does a job paid for the state scrounging, in your book?
Nor do you get any tourists in for an elected head-of-state.
FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.
On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?
Oh do behave - the royals do a job for a fraction of the cost of an elected head of state (even before the costs of elections are factored in). Is anyone who is does a job paid for the state scrounging, in your book?
Nor do you get any tourists in for an elected head-of-state.
That's right - no tourists in Washington DC, Rome or Paris.
Indeed. Because Hollande and Renzi have real worldwide pull, don't they....
The inevitable republican complaints about royal coverage always remind me of Scrooge and his attitude to Christmas:: the same complete failure to understand the appeal of the festivities and the same mug superiority at being better than those they see as fools celebrating for no good reason.
It's not behaviour that is likely to win them much support.
Many congratulations to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge!
I would think that the feel good factor from a royal baby would be worth a point for the incumbents, and also a point for the more monarchist party, so hopefully this will give Cameron and co a bump!
Many congratulations to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge!
I would think that the feel good factor from a royal baby would be worth a point for the incumbents, and also a point for the more monarchist party, so hopefully this will give Cameron and co a bump!
FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.
On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?
Oh do behave - the royals do a job for a fraction of the cost of an elected head of state (even before the costs of elections are factored in). Is anyone who is does a job paid for the state scrounging, in your book?
Nor do you get any tourists in for an elected head-of-state.
Probably just means the commissioners are prepared to pay the extra for a phone poll when we get close to an election. Maybe all pollsters should offer both approaches, online will be seen as a cheap alternative when the stakes aren't so high. Of course we don't know until next week which will be more accurate.
Here in Colchester had ANOTHER Lib Dem leaflet dressed up as a free newspaper.
Getting ever more hysterical it seems too.
The headline is " What have the tories got against Colchester"
Answer appears to be roadworks and they turn off the lights overnight - like ooh, everywhere else in Essex.
According to the Lib Dems the conservatives wanted to charge people 10 a month to use certain roads - but Norman Baker stopped them.
According to our Lib dem friends they will make Labour borrow 70Bn less (a year or over 5 years?) - - good luck with that with the SNP around.
Likewise they will ensure the tories cut 50bn less........ That Mansion tax will have to go some!
We are warned about "Blukip" (conservative / UKIP / DUP coalition).
Finally they berate the Labour candidate for campaigning in Norwich rather than here.
Surely they cant be scared of losing Colchester?
Here in West Worthing , not exactly a marginal seat , we get leaflets dressed up as free newspapers from Conservative , Lib Dem and Greens . They often contain hysterical comments about what will happen if you vote for one of the other parties . Does that mean that the Conservatives are worried about losing Worthing ? Sorry , No !!!!!
What I don't understand (and perhaps you can help me with this) is that no one can doubt that the Lib Dems are under pressure this election.
This seat should be safe and with limited resources it would make sense to me to concentrate those resources on seats under greater pressure / threat.
But hey, I am a "floater" rather than a party activist so have no real insight into how parties allocate resources.
What odds would anyone give that the Conservatives in Scotland win as many seats or more than the LibDems? (including the possibility of none for either). Likewise what odds that Scottish Labour win as many or fewer than Scottish Cons plus Scottish Lib Dem (again including the possibility of both getting none)
Finally any takers for my previous offer of a charity bet that SNP get 57 or fewer seats; £50 charity bet (one bet only). loser to pay to the charity of the winner's choice; UK wide charities and non religious (or political ones). Put your money where your rhetoric is, and for a good cause.
Con-vs-LD with Con winning on a tie would be Odds on I'd say.
Your charity bet is still awful value at evens.
Indeed. He's ignored more than one reasoned rebuttal of that bet - which is a shame as if he has some genuine logic it would have been interesting to see it.
I was putting you to the test: you are very keen to spend English tax payer's money, but never to risk your own... even for charity. I think we have got your measure
"DO NOT POST COMMENTS OR COPY TWEETS HERE ABOUT SPECIFIC POLLSTERS THAT COULD BE DEFAMATORY"
Hodges is a real piece of work isn't he? I read his comment yesterday and wondered how such a fine and talented woman as Glenda could have produced someone so bitter.
Could this be a candidate for the unexplained £12bn welfare cuts.
There are lots of benefits that needs tidying up. Pension tax relief at high end is just ridiculous - should be 20% all round. Child benefit for more than 3 kids stupid too. £10 winter allowance for Christmas must cost £20 to manage. Roll it up into pension.
rubbish, why should I pay even more tax than the hideous amount I pay now just to featherbed your idleness
FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.
On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?
Oh do behave - the royals do a job for a fraction of the cost of an elected head of state (even before the costs of elections are factored in). Is anyone who is does a job paid for the state scrounging, in your book?
Nor do you get any tourists in for an elected head-of-state.
Other than being slightly embarrassed to live in a monarchy in the 21st century I can't get excited over the issue. However, the desperate stuff that the apologists for a hereditary head of state come out with to justify it does make me smile.
Terrible how the tourist figures in London slump overtime the monarch disappears to one of the other stately piles for a month or 2!.
Feel-good national events tend to benefit the incumbent government. (Sports wins etc).
They may get a small bounce, but I doubt it will be to that extent. If anything, there may not be any bounce at all given how little the polls have changed over the campaign.
Could this be a candidate for the unexplained £12bn welfare cuts.
The graph is inaccurate. The presumption is that housing benefit is paid to the tenant, albeit it can be disapplied (Housing Benefit Regulations 2006 SI 2006/213, regs 94-96). Where housing benefit is paid to a tenant who is entitled to it, the monies are beneficially the property of the tenant and there is no obligation to apply them to satisfy the tenant's arrears of, or liability to rent service (DPP v Huskinson (1988) 20 HLR 562 (DC)).
What odds would anyone give that the Conservatives in Scotland win as many seats or more than the LibDems? (including the possibility of none for either). Likewise what odds that Scottish Labour win as many or fewer than Scottish Cons plus Scottish Lib Dem (again including the possibility of both getting none)
Finally any takers for my previous offer of a charity bet that SNP get 57 or fewer seats; £50 charity bet (one bet only). loser to pay to the charity of the winner's choice; UK wide charities and non religious (or political ones). Put your money where your rhetoric is, and for a good cause.
Con-vs-LD with Con winning on a tie would be Odds on I'd say.
Your charity bet is still awful value at evens.
Indeed. He's ignored more than one reasoned rebuttal of that bet - which is a shame as if he has some genuine logic it would have been interesting to see it.
I was putting you to the test: you are very keen to spend English tax payer's money, but never to risk your own... even for charity. I think we have got your measure
Skybet are offering 5/1 on the SNP winning every seat in Scotland, Hills 10/11 on 51-59 seats; if you offer odds somewhere between those I'll think about it. Otherwise everyone can take the measure of a blusterer who won't back his rhetoric.
FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.
On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?
Oh do behave - the royals do a job for a fraction of the cost of an elected head of state (even before the costs of elections are factored in). Is anyone who is does a job paid for the state scrounging, in your book?
Nor do you get any tourists in for an elected head-of-state.
Have the French shut down Versailles? Have the Indians shut down Jaipur or Mysore? Have the Russians shut down St Petersburg?
After last Sunday's "worst crisis since the abdication" headline re the SNP, the headlines tomorrow would have to be even more lurid - "Sturgeon heralds zombie apocalypse" anyone? The arrival of the Royal Baby may have blown a hole in that plan however.
Oh wait I got it... "Vile Nats In Royal Baby Twitter Shame", "Disgusting Separatists Poke Fun At Little Baby"... Any takers??
I would if I could stop laughing , what wit you are
FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.
On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?
Oh do behave - the royals do a job for a fraction of the cost of an elected head of state (even before the costs of elections are factored in). Is anyone who is does a job paid for the state scrounging, in your book?
Nor do you get any tourists in for an elected head-of-state.
Have the French shut down Versailles? Have the Indians shut down Jaipur or Mysore? Have the Russians shut down St Petersburg?
The Royal brand for the UK extends a lot further than just a couple of buildings.
Feel-good national events tend to benefit the incumbent government. (Sports wins etc).
They may get a small bounce, but I doubt it will be to that extent. If anything, there may not be any bounce at all given how little the polls have changed over the campaign.
I'm surprised by how many people are happy to believe the word of Lib Dems about their electoral prospects. Perhaps it's a fear about not wanting to over-rule people with local knowledge of what's going on in a country where a sense of the national mood appears to be evaporating. However the Lib Dems have a dog in this fight. Just because they are used to being the also rans doesn't mean they can't be overly optimistic. Many Tories did not expect the scale of defeat in '97. The SNP were expecting to win the Indyref. I'd want much more evidence than 'the Lib Dems are convinced they'll do better than people think' in order to believe it.
Attlee did not expect to win in 1945. At least, not by such a margin. Someone’s diary records that on the morning when all, the results were declared ..... there was a delay in counting the postal, servicemen’s, votes ...... the subject wasn’t even discussed at breakfast in the Attlee household.
But Attlee was famously phlegmatic. I love the story of his exchange with a radio reporter on election eve:
Eager reporter: "Mr Attllee, do you have one final message to add to the British people as they prepare to vote?" Attlee: "No."
Once, many years ago, what was then S. Rhodesia declared it’s independence under a white minority government. The late Jeremy Thorpe suggested bombing the insurgents, as they were seen by most people, although not the Tory Right.
Shortly afterwards, canvassing one of the blues areas of the town where I lived on behalf of the Liberals I was several times "shown off" the premises for supporting “that bomber”!
And yes, it was “bomber”!
I was at my (international) school when it happened, and at the next "public affairs quiz", a question was, "Who is the Prime Minister of Rhodesia?". Correct answer was "Harold Wilson", since nobody had recognised Smith.
The Mayor of Osaka did the modern version: Interviewer: What policies are your party proposing to take Japan forward? Mayor: Please refer to our website. Interviewer: Thank you for your time.
YouGov are a broken clock, I don't know why anyone would expect any change in them. Even if the country's mood changes, a 2% Tory lead in YouGov would be a shock now.
40% in ICM on the other hand ... unlikely but at least possible.
FFS why has BBC1 been switched to news. When will the BBC learn that they now have a rolling news channel for anyone interested in new benefits scroungers.
On such a thought, I remember when Nicholas Witchell was a journalist rather than a sycophant. Do you think he chose the job or it was some sort of punishment?
Oh do behave - the royals do a job for a fraction of the cost of an elected head of state (even before the costs of elections are factored in). Is anyone who is does a job paid for the state scrounging, in your book?
Nor do you get any tourists in for an elected head-of-state.
Have the French shut down Versailles? Have the Indians shut down Jaipur or Mysore? Have the Russians shut down St Petersburg?
Exactly. Versailles is open to the public all year round. I've been in it myself while a tourist to France - can the same be said about Buckingham Palace?
If we join the 20th let alone the 21st century and abolish the hereditary principle and get a meritocratic head of state we can use all these national buildings as museums for tourists. As they should be.
Invested three grand last night on the tories spread across 40 seats - 35 in the range of CON defence 50-100 and 5 CON targets from the LibDems (mainly SW).
All 40 win, I get a return of 59% in a week.
I don't expect all 40 to win, but am hopeful of taking no more than 7-8 hits. which should still see a 25% return.
On average I can take 17 losses before I go into the red.
I think Cameron would have to be caught eating the royal baby for me to do worse than that.
Pensioners camping out on pavements for over a week indicates quite a significant mental disturbance, they need to taken somewhere safe for their own good.
Ok did quite a long drive today from Wiltshire to St Ives passing through Frome , down to Exeter across the top of Bodmin moor to Truro and into St Ives. To pass the time I watched out for party boards along the main roads on the way and an estimate is I saw approx.
Tory around 75% Lib Dem around 20% Greens around 3 % A Cornish party ? 2% Labour I only saw one board on side of A30
The Frome area were around 50/50 between Tory and Lib Dem.... South of this were greens but no further than Exeter The Tories were consistent along the route but particularly in Frome area. They also had a very large showing on billboards and small billboards with a picture of the local PPC all the way from Exeter to St Ives.
The one Labour board was just vote Labour. I saw not a single UKIP board anywhere.. That was surprising.
I have no idea if this is any use to anyone or actually means anything but there it is for what it is.
Comments
Incidentally a commentator on Sky, who is even more over the top about the Royal Evenmt than the BBC normally are, has referred to the current Royal Family as being descended from Old King Cole.
I really wish I’d paid more attention to the children’s upbringing!
Nor do you get any tourists in for an elected head-of-state.
Tick Tock... On the internet polling bubble.
This all hangs on the disputed lineage of the 14th and 15th centuries and whether the current crop of Royals have an ounce of actual Royal blood in them. And indeed, if that matters in the slightest.
Says something about the change in the Labour Party since the 60s: before then I would have been a fervent supporter. Since then they've given the centre ground over to the Tories in England, and are now losing it in Scotland/Wales too.
Ever read the concerns of Trade Unionists in the Beveridge report committee hearings? I suspect those hardworking, patriotic and caring folk are now turning in their grave at the way in which the welfare state has turned people away from self reliance and personal responsibility.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Van_Rompuy
It's not behaviour that is likely to win them much support.
I would think that the feel good factor from a royal baby would be worth a point for the incumbents, and also a point for the more monarchist party, so hopefully this will give Cameron and co a bump!
I have two similarly speculative suggestions today:
Uttox:
2.55 Our Mick 16/1
5.20 Black Lily 25/1
Maybe we should do them in a yankee?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594264607885254657
This seat should be safe and with limited resources it would make sense to me to concentrate those resources on seats under greater pressure / threat.
But hey, I am a "floater" rather than a party activist so have no real insight into how parties allocate resources.
Hodges is a real piece of work isn't he? I read his comment yesterday and wondered how such a fine and talented woman as Glenda could have produced someone so bitter.
Phone polls = Depeche Mode
Online polls = Joe Dolce
Terrible how the tourist figures in London slump overtime the monarch disappears to one of the other stately piles for a month or 2!.
The Royal brand for the UK extends a lot further than just a couple of buildings.
But you knew that.
Interviewer: What policies are your party proposing to take Japan forward?
Mayor: Please refer to our website.
Interviewer: Thank you for your time.
* Think in terms of the hereditary principle - the Nehru-Gandhis, the Benns, and the Kims in North Korea - all Socialists!
* Think in terms of all those glorious parades like Trooping the Colour, the North Korean influence plainly obvious there!
* And think in terms of "a job for life", the cornerstone of a Monarch's reign. "Jobs for life" again is a thoroughly Socialist principle!
So, I put it to you that our dear Monarchy is gloriously, triumphantly, magnificently Socialist!
YouGov are a broken clock, I don't know why anyone would expect any change in them. Even if the country's mood changes, a 2% Tory lead in YouGov would be a shock now.
40% in ICM on the other hand ... unlikely but at least possible.
If we join the 20th let alone the 21st century and abolish the hereditary principle and get a meritocratic head of state we can use all these national buildings as museums for tourists. As they should be.
I think people might be relieved at the timing, given it's a break from political stuff.
As if by magic, the New Thread appeared.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-england-32335637
Invested three grand last night on the tories spread across 40 seats - 35 in the range of CON defence 50-100 and 5 CON targets from the LibDems (mainly SW).
All 40 win, I get a return of 59% in a week.
I don't expect all 40 to win, but am hopeful of taking no more than 7-8 hits. which should still see a 25% return.
On average I can take 17 losses before I go into the red.
I think Cameron would have to be caught eating the royal baby for me to do worse than that.
Pensioners camping out on pavements for over a week indicates quite a significant mental disturbance, they need to taken somewhere safe for their own good.
Tory around 75%
Lib Dem around 20%
Greens around 3 %
A Cornish party ? 2%
Labour I only saw one board on side of A30
The Frome area were around 50/50 between Tory and Lib Dem....
South of this were greens but no further than Exeter
The Tories were consistent along the route but particularly in Frome area. They also had a very large showing on billboards and small billboards with a picture of the local PPC all the way from Exeter to St Ives.
The one Labour board was just vote Labour. I saw not a single UKIP board anywhere.. That was surprising.
I have no idea if this is any use to anyone or actually means anything but there it is for what it is.