Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » To start big debate night Marf gives her take….

1567810

Comments

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    Fenster said:

    Carnyx said:

    Fenster said:

    Carnyx said:

    Fenster said:

    Leanne Wood is the hardest of the seven when it comes to fighting. She lives in Penygraig.

    That's a village where the window cleaner carries a sander and the dogs go round in pairs.

    OK - why a sander?
    Boarded up windows everywhere. Hard as nails in Penygraig, I promise you :)

    And thanks too. We have places like that too. We call them cowboy country.

    I stayed in Lonehead just outside Edinburgh once... Geez, tough place!!

    Remember the haggis ranch? That's where Bilston Glen deep mine was. I remember seeing the fence outside during the miners' strike ...

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    As mentioned, not watching, but a psych fact that's worth remembering: primacy and recency. People tend to remember most the very start and very end of something.

    So, for overall impressions I'd say someone can get away with a boring or slightly lacklustre middle if they start/end well. Worse to do it the other way around.

    Of course, if you get shot halfway through lunch you'll still remember the gunshot more than your starter.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Farage going big on grammar schools, most important policy of all for me.

    You will never improve social mobility without them.

    So UKIP wants to bring back secondary moderns?

    They are already here. They're called comprehensives.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Ishmael_X said:

    Farage going big on grammar schools, most important policy of all for me.

    You will never improve social mobility without them.

    So UKIP wants to bring back secondary moderns?

    The real Mike Smithson used to work for Oxford and Cambridge universities and would know that without input from proper selective schools, both public and grammar, both universities would be vying in the league tables with the College for Further Creationist Studies, Onehorseville, Ga.
    They'd be better universities.
  • Hands down win for Cameron surely?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    tlg86 said:

    Farage good on education.

    Yes. It's a big thing for me. The Tories used to love grammar schools but now they're too embarrassed to support them.
    I went to one (being of Kent), and have just finished a PhD. Doubt I would have accomplished it without the good work of the grammar.

    I have two sons-one at Langton Boys (Grammar) the other probably going to sandwich tech. so i see both side of the story.

    Grammar schools are great-the problem is what is the alternative if you dont get in?

    Exactly, what about the 60% who do not get into the Grammar school, they do not go to Comprehensives, they end up in Modern Schools with very limited opportunity.
    I live in Bucks, my eldest granddaughter didn't pass the eleven plus but achieved much higher results than we expected at her comprehensive.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Freggles said:

    Not sure ZHC is the vote winner Ed thinks it is

    I don't think so either. The study showed that two thirds of people on ZHCs are happy with their working situation.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    Clegg seems to be making a pitch for David Cameron. Wasted opportunity for him.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    Sturgeon did a "vote SNP for Scotland first".
    Clegg is doing the "stay the course".
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Was it my imagination or did EdM also say he'd bring in 3yrs tenancies as well instead of 1yrs ones?

    I thought all short hold tenancies were 6 months - I can't think of anything worse than a 3yrs one.
    Freggles said:

    Not sure ZHC is the vote winner Ed thinks it is

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Overwhelming consensus on Facebook among my Laboury friends is wishes that Sturgeon was the Labour leader. Someone who actually has the balls to argue for vaguely leftwing policies (and sounds human).
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Fenster said:

    Carnyx said:

    Fenster said:

    Carnyx said:

    Fenster said:

    Leanne Wood is the hardest of the seven when it comes to fighting. She lives in Penygraig.

    That's a village where the window cleaner carries a sander and the dogs go round in pairs.

    OK - why a sander?
    Boarded up windows everywhere. Hard as nails in Penygraig, I promise you :)

    And thanks too. We have places like that too. We call them cowboy country.

    I stayed in Lonehead just outside Edinburgh once... Geez, tough place!!

    So tough you can't spell Loanhead?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718

    tlg86 said:

    Farage going big on grammar schools, most important policy of all for me.

    You will never improve social mobility without them.

    So UKIP wants to ring back secondary moderns.

    I got a shed load of As and A*s at a comp and could have done just as well at a secondary modern.

    We need grammar schools to nurture talent from a young age, something which comps do not do at all well.
    Yep, and a comp is very different from a Secondary Modern School.

    Having been to a Grammar school and seen those at the Modern having much less opportunity it scares me that people think that this is a way to increase social mobility.
    My primary school was "allowed" about 10 places at local grammar schools. Nothing to do with ability.
    and we probably never hear from those that did not make the Grammar school cheering about how good Modern Schools are.
    Absolutely. That "decision" at 11 made enormous life differences.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Anyone offering to build 000's of houses is talking bollocks. There is such a lack of supply of cement and bricks that it's an impossibility.

    As someone who lives in a new build house on a new estate on a brownfield site, in a fast growing town* with lots of new build estates being built that seems like total nonsense. There's '000s of houses being built in my town today let alone the country as a whole.

    * Warrington - got mentioned in the debate earlier by Cameron who visited today.
    There's a massive lead time on brick orders in South East England. So many brick yards and cement plants have been mothballed or shut down.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Ed is doing a "if i'm PM" again.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Dair said:

    Fenster said:

    Carnyx said:

    Fenster said:

    Carnyx said:

    Fenster said:

    Leanne Wood is the hardest of the seven when it comes to fighting. She lives in Penygraig.

    That's a village where the window cleaner carries a sander and the dogs go round in pairs.

    OK - why a sander?
    Boarded up windows everywhere. Hard as nails in Penygraig, I promise you :)

    And thanks too. We have places like that too. We call them cowboy country.

    I stayed in Lonehead just outside Edinburgh once... Geez, tough place!!

    So tough you can't spell Loanhead?
    oops. Damned comprehensive education ;)
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited April 2015
    Ed M looking real smug and fake.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Can we have SNP on the ballot paper please. And sturgeon too. Go SNP
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Fenster said:

    Regulating on zero hours contracts will put people out of work.

    An ill thought out proposal from beginning to end, this could backfire on Ed.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,869
    Dair said:

    SLAB are going to get slaughtered by an SNP led by Sturgeon, aren't they?

    They really are. 55% is possible.
    Do you think the influx of Labour supporters it will pull them too far to the left?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Nicola actually grown her Twitter rating according to telegraph and topping out the Sun Worm.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Plato said:

    Was it my imagination or did EdM also say he'd bring in 3yrs tenancies as well instead of 1yrs ones?

    I thought all short hold tenancies were 6 months - I can't think of anything worse than a 3yrs one.

    Freggles said:

    Not sure ZHC is the vote winner Ed thinks it is

    Yes - Lab policy is all tenancies will be 3 years - landlord can't boot tenant out for 3 years.

    See what that does to rental supply!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    Sturgeon, Farage, Clegg all performed well.

    Farage could have performed so much better, but a really good second half.

    Miliband had a great first half, but a weak second one.

    David Cameron was very lucky there was only one debate.

    Natalie Bennett was entertaining :-)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Wood is following the Labour line.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited April 2015

    Hands down win for Cameron surely?

    Cameron handled the heckler with aplomb and is coming out of this the winner IMO (in so far as the debate will have given nobody else a surge).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Smug alert from Ed Miliband.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited April 2015

    Farage going big on grammar schools, most important policy of all for me.

    You will never improve social mobility without them.

    So UKIP wants to bring back secondary moderns?

    I went to Grammar School.
    To be taught by grammar school teachers. Do people want to to be taught by those left behind? Will Farage admit that so called 'selection' in Kent grammars is a joke? OGH is right to point out the corollary.
    It all just shows that Farage is in the end just plain bonkers.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    I don't agree with Nic-ola - at least on the economy - but she did well. Looks powerful too, a bit like Merkel + fashion sense.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    As mentioned, not watching, but a psych fact that's worth remembering: primacy and recency. People tend to remember most the very start and very end of something.

    So, for overall impressions I'd say someone can get away with a boring or slightly lacklustre middle if they start/end well. Worse to do it the other way around.

    Of course, if you get shot halfway through lunch you'll still remember the gunshot more than your starter.

    Sean T says much the same thing about novels. A novel that starts and finishes strongly can sustain a weak middle.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    One for the train fans, West Coast Railway Co banned from Network Rail, could stop most steam charter trains for next 2 months.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-32167724

    I would question the last paragraph's accuracy.
  • Anyone offering to build 000's of houses is talking bollocks. There is such a lack of supply of cement and bricks that it's an impossibility.

    As someone who lives in a new build house on a new estate on a brownfield site, in a fast growing town* with lots of new build estates being built that seems like total nonsense. There's '000s of houses being built in my town today let alone the country as a whole.

    * Warrington - got mentioned in the debate earlier by Cameron who visited today.
    The planning applications passed do not support the numbers politicians claim they want to see.

    When the CIL arrangements come into effect you will see a huge pause as housing construction hits the buffers.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    Farage going big on grammar schools, most important policy of all for me.

    You will never improve social mobility without them.

    So UKIP wants to bring back secondary moderns?

    The real Mike Smithson used to work for Oxford and Cambridge universities and would know that without input from proper selective schools, both public and grammar, both universities would be vying in the league tables with the College for Further Creationist Studies, Onehorseville, Ga.
    They'd be better universities.
    Of course they would.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    "If you want change, you have to vote for it"

    Good line, coming from Bennett.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Sturgeon wins it for me.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Bennett is doing a "vote green for new politics".
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,498
    933 comments in thread - longest for some time?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Ed for PM?? only in his widest dreams.. Totally unfit for the job..
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Farage screwing up his closing statement. Saying "all the same" right after Nicola and Natalie.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    1000th
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    welsh lady quite foxy.

    i expect viewing figures at the end will be minimal
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    Farage ending strongly.

    Increasingly I think there's going to be a surge for them after this.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I rather like Nigel Farage at times - but far too much cheeky-chappy playing for the laughs tonight.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Farage won the closing statement alright.
  • EDW2000EDW2000 Posts: 29
    Nice close Nigel
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    O wow. More laughs for Farage.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    rcs1000 said:

    Sturgeon, Farage, Clegg all performed well.

    Farage could have performed so much better, but a really good second half.

    Miliband had a great first half, but a weak second one.

    David Cameron was very lucky there was only one debate.

    Natalie Bennett was entertaining :-)

    I think Cameron will be chuffed it's over and done with. To be fair to him, being PM he had a big target on him.

  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    Biggest winner: Sturgeon
    Biggest loser: Farage

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071


    Of course, if you get shot halfway through lunch you'll still remember the gunshot more than your starter.

    You've obviously never eaten in El Celler de Can Roca in Girona
    Definitely the starter.

    cellercanroca.com
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Cameron commits to full employment???
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    welsh lady quite foxy.

    i expect viewing figures at the end will be minimal

    She's a bit MILFy.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Cameron is doing a Puss In Boots.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    "thank you very much indeed"
    ugh
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Cam says vote for the Coalition!
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    SLAB are going to get slaughtered by an SNP led by Sturgeon, aren't they?

    They really are. 55% is possible.
    Do you think the influx of Labour supporters it will pull them too far to the left?
    Officially yes. But in power they will continue with very centrist, very liberal, very effective government. They have a rock solid Leadership Group and it's not one person - they just put the most attractive communicator as a figurehead.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Cameron praying the steady as she goes approach is appropriate
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    "You are the weakest link..."
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718

    tlg86 said:

    Farage good on education.

    Yes. It's a big thing for me. The Tories used to love grammar schools but now they're too embarrassed to support them.
    I went to one (being of Kent), and have just finished a PhD. Doubt I would have accomplished it without the good work of the grammar.

    I have two sons-one at Langton Boys (Grammar) the other probably going to sandwich tech. so i see both side of the story.

    Grammar schools are great-the problem is what is the alternative if you dont get in?

    Exactly, what about the 60% who do not get into the Grammar school, they do not go to Comprehensives, they end up in Modern Schools with very limited opportunity.
    I live in Bucks, my eldest granddaughter didn't pass the eleven plus but achieved much higher results than we expected at her comprehensive.
    To be fair I'm talking about the 50's, you're talking about 50 yars later.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. F, rather unsurprisingly, Mr. T's entirely correct about the old book business.

    Of course, with samples, if you have a weak beginning then people may well not buy it in the first place. And if you screw up the ending [it was all just a dream] that can make the entire book seem rubbish.

    Anyway, I'm off for the night.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Dave is clearly the man with the plan.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    No doubt I won the debate

    #Alanbrookewon
  • Plato said:

    Was it my imagination or did EdM also say he'd bring in 3yrs tenancies as well instead of 1yrs ones?

    I thought all short hold tenancies were 6 months - I can't think of anything worse than a 3yrs one.

    Freggles said:

    Not sure ZHC is the vote winner Ed thinks it is

    He has, and most tenants do not want 3 year deals.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    Sturgeon is a quality performer no question about that. All very staged, everyone fully prepared so hard to call who was the best. Highlight for me was Cam hitting on Mid Staffs, also he did ok with Farage.

    Farage showed more than ever he is a one trick pony but that trick might decide the next PM, which I predict won't be good.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    #Iwonit Iamadeity
  • Happy with that.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    MP_SE said:

    O wow. More laughs for Farage.

    Farage had a nightmare. A proper Nixon 62 moment.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    instant poll says Alanbooke is God
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I got that impression too!
    RodCrosby said:

    Cam says vote for the Coalition!

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    So first impression is that they all did about the same, with Farage doing the best and worst moments of the night.

    On the margin I think that Miliband did better than Cameron, as Cameron was clearly outnumbered and struggling most of the time to handle the constant attack.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    As prices suspended

    Farage 1.86
    Cameron 10.0
    Miliband 6.0
    Clegg 50.0
    Sturgeon 3.4

    Who wins .....?
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    1. Sturgeon
    2. Bennett
    3. Clegg
    4. Farage
    5. Wood
    6=. Cameron and Miliband (wasn't easy for them, to be fair - being the establishment)

    Overall, probably will win votes for the Greens and SNP and some back for the Lib Dems.

    Biggest victory is Cameron's. Getting the debates done early - they'll be forgotten by the GE.
  • EDW2000EDW2000 Posts: 29
    Lab/coll govt.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    RodCrosby said:

    Cam says vote for the Coalition!

    Everyone knows it's been a Tory majority government in all but name.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    edited April 2015
    Alanbrooke's spinners say they spin faster than a spin drier

    Alistair Campbell admits Alanbrooke is king
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    Nobody will have topped 25% in that. The question is - who outperformed their poll ratings?

    25% for UKIP is very good for them, whether it is first or second.
    Likewise 15% for the LibDems would be an excellent result for them given they are at 8% in the polls.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    YouGov servers are f***ed
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Biggest winner: Sturgeon
    Biggest loser: Farage

    Biggest winner: Farage
    Biggest loser: Farage

    I think Cameron will be happier than Miliband tonight. Cameron looked like a PM, Miliband looked like one of the others.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    CCHQ concedes it's between Alanbrooke and Ave It the rest of them were shit
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Dair said:

    MP_SE said:

    O wow. More laughs for Farage.

    Farage had a nightmare. A proper Nixon 62 moment.
    I think you mean 60.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Nicola the best speaker overall I thought :)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,498
    dr_spyn said:

    One for the train fans, West Coast Railway Co banned from Network Rail, could stop most steam charter trains for next 2 months.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-32167724

    I would question the last paragraph's accuracy.

    Blooming heck, that's serious, especially the bit about NR not being happy with the company's response to the incident.

    It also highlights a well-known issue with AWS.

    As an old friend would have said: this is what happens if you let children play on the grown-up's railway. Perhaps a tad unfair, but understandable.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    rcs1000 said:

    Nobody will have topped 25% in that. The question is - who outperformed their poll ratings?

    25% for UKIP is very good for them, whether it is first or second.
    Likewise 15% for the LibDems would be an excellent result for them given they are at 8% in the polls.

    Sturgeon will easily outperform the 5% or so that the SNP get UK-wide.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited April 2015
    stjohn said:

    As prices suspended

    Farage 1.86
    Cameron 10.0
    Miliband 6.0
    Clegg 50.0
    Sturgeon 3.4

    Who wins .....?

    Im going to say Dave.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    I thought the worm'd died at the end but it perked up at Dave!
  • Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Nicola gets the only applause from a statement from an audience asked not to. Wow.

    Everyone has received some applause.
    The audience are told not to applaud. There's been a few laughs and claps but that's the only one on an opening statement.
    I shudder to think what Sturgeon would have to say for you to think she's got something wrong.
    Read the thread. There's PB Tories wishing she was their MP.
    There's nothing duller than reading someone bigging up their hero every five seconds and mocking anyone who disagrees with them. If you want people to listen to you then try showing an ounce of perspective now and then instead of acting like you've been brainwashed by a personality cult.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Thought Julie the moderation was not strong enough. She allowed them to speak over each other and continue talking after she told them to stop.

    No wonder Cameron did not want the debates to be head to heads. He wanted a lot of noise and not a debate that got into any specific detail.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    MP_SE said:

    Dave is clearly the man with the plan.

    "Do I really look like a guy with a plan?" :)
  • JGCJGC Posts: 64
    so the BBC news leads with ED M attacking DC over the NHS, cue tory howls......
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Plato said:

    Was it my imagination or did EdM also say he'd bring in 3yrs tenancies as well instead of 1yrs ones?

    I thought all short hold tenancies were 6 months - I can't think of anything worse than a 3yrs one.

    Freggles said:

    Not sure ZHC is the vote winner Ed thinks it is

    He has, and most tenants do not want 3 year deals.
    Most landlords would love 3 year deals, as long as the terms were the same for all parties. Not sure I'd want to commit to 3 years as a tenant.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Populus server has crashed. Can't do the poll.

    Newvista (ComRes?) is timing out on the final click.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Dair said:

    Nicola actually grown her Twitter rating according to telegraph and topping out the Sun Worm.

    Sturgeon; politically banal ( 1970s Labour crap ), vocally grating , physically unimpressive.
    Frankly, I expected more from the highest paid politician on the panel and indeed in the UK.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Ed Milibands concedes the debate

    "F=k I'm crap I wish I was Alanbrooke, I'm going back to dicking poodles "
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223

    dr_spyn said:

    One for the train fans, West Coast Railway Co banned from Network Rail, could stop most steam charter trains for next 2 months.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-32167724

    I would question the last paragraph's accuracy.

    Blooming heck, that's serious, especially the bit about NR not being happy with the company's response to the incident.

    It also highlights a well-known issue with AWS.

    As an old friend would have said: this is what happens if you let children play on the grown-up's railway. Perhaps a tad unfair, but understandable.
    Oh no! I've just booked my parents on the Jacobite. I hope this is all cleared up before the end of May, but Network Rail have to put safety first.
  • EDW2000EDW2000 Posts: 29
    Farage tories will love aids tourists. He is a bruiser
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Well done Ed.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    What we learn here is that Ed is in trouble for the opposition only debates. Could be awful for him. He got fucked over NHS privatisation more than Dave.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Rogerdamus calls it for Cameron
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Kellner says Sturgeon edging Farage half way through Yougov poll
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,003
    just looked at Nicola's line on the Sun worm in isolation. Wow - faultless improvement from a strong start
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Danny565 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nobody will have topped 25% in that. The question is - who outperformed their poll ratings?

    25% for UKIP is very good for them, whether it is first or second.
    Likewise 15% for the LibDems would be an excellent result for them given they are at 8% in the polls.

    Sturgeon will easily outperform the 5% or so that the SNP get UK-wide.
    That is true, but the SNP overlaps with Labour in policies.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Nicolas Sturgeon says she is Alanbookes Charlotte Crosby
This discussion has been closed.