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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The early turnout figures shows it will be a record breakin

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  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Oliver_PB said:

    Looking like "English votes for English laws" will be the latest Tory wheeze to grab power less than a year before the next election. Shameless.

    I've already heard it half a dozen times on the BBC, definitely a new Tory tag line.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    What the hell is it with Tory back benchers having a pop at Cameron now!
  • The big problem for Labour with EV4EL is that presumably also removes Welsh MPs from the equation.

    All of a sudden, on domestic policy at least, it looks dangerous for Ed.

    Now is Dave going to pull a masterstroke and get this voted through before May, in the guise of "we promised the Scots we'd deliver quickly, we'll deliver a constitutional settlement for the whole UK quickly"?

    Politics just got interesting again.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Oliver_PB
    They have a valid point..it is something needing addressed urgently.
    Devolution for Scotland will only work well if also takes into account England.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,387

    SKY is importuning disappointed YES teenagers

    Unless SKY is kerbcrawling, I think you mean "interviewing"

  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    hunchman said:

    How did Johann Lamont ever become SLAB leader?! She is just terrible in every way possible

    Just one of several reasons why Gordon Brown trying to become a MSP makes alot of sense for the Labour party in Scotland
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Good lord,

    I'm (ideologically) bored on vote of the 21C night.

    I'll guess I'll just have to play with you Smarmy -

    [A lot of voters will have signed up, listened to the debates, and then decided they honestly didn't know which way to vote.]

    You're on a massive sulk Smarmy - I'd be getting drunk but I've just been on holiday and the alcohol is medicinal.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Stay Classy #Yes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    I've rarely been so happy, should the good news roll on, to be called a fool. now i need to question my prediction ed m will win a majority too.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    tentative Central forecast:

    NO majority: 382,000
  • Oliver_PB said:

    Looking like "English votes for English laws" will be the latest Tory wheeze to grab power less than a year before the next election. Shameless.

    It's not a wheeze, it is unavoidable because it is the democratic thing to do. The devil will be in the detail.

  • Alan Roden ‏@AlanRoden 1m

    Latest #indyref intelligence: a massive 61% No in Edinburgh.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I warned everyone we'd have to put up with 4-5 hours of inane waffling before most of the results start to come through.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    IOS said:

    What the hell is it with Tory back benchers having a pop at Cameron now!

    such things are the clearest sign many of them are totally unreasonable, they never pick a moment well (whereas carswell for one did), they just never stop

  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    IOS said:

    What the hell is it with Tory back benchers having a pop at Cameron now!

    The parliamentary Tory party has been more than well endowed with complete nutters for many decades now.
  • He gave a few vague suggestions, otherwise called "A Vow". He promised a "Cast Iron Guarantee" of a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, that didn't happen. Why do you think "The Vow" will matter on jot?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited September 2014
    Single (Win) 1 £ 10.00 Scottish Independence Referendum Polling Wars Survation 7/4 Pending

    Which Survation/Yougov polls are going to be used for this ?
  • The decision of Sinn Fein to take a neutral stance has been crucial and the increasing maturity of the leadership.Imagine if S/F had taken a position,what may have happened during the Orange Order march which went peacefully.Many,many people would have been biting their tongues.They have kept to their word on neutrality when everyone else,including me,were breaking it.Not are they doing very well,they deserve to be doing very well.Therefore, east end of Glasgow republicans were in a vacuum,so were effectively disenfranchised,Therefore,turn out down.Sinn Fein prepare themselves for government.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    And still no malcomg?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Oh, I'd play - but what can I do - review Kay burley???
  • Oliver_PB said:

    Looking like "English votes for English laws" will be the latest Tory wheeze to grab power less than a year before the next election. Shameless.

    Another empty piece of politicking that unravels with just the slightest examination. Whats the point of giving English MPs the vote if Scottish/ Welsh MPs can hold the Ministerial roles that decide what policies are offered and what funding is allocated to those areas that are supposedly English only?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Single (Win) 1 £ 10.00 Scottish Independence Referendum Polling Wars Survation 7/4 Pending

    Which Survation/Yougov polls are going to be used for this ?

    Their final ones.
  • They didn't really want to speak. actually some of them didn't say anything to the "anything to say" question
    viewcode said:

    SKY is importuning disappointed YES teenagers

    Unless SKY is kerbcrawling, I think you mean "interviewing"

  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    The Sky YES party looks like a funeral.
  • Michael Gove pretty much confirms Dave will propose EV4EL
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    RodCrosby said:

    tentative Central forecast:

    NO majority: 382,000

    Is that about 45/55% ? ie 1.8m to 2.2m?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Chris_A said:

    IOS said:

    What the hell is it with Tory back benchers having a pop at Cameron now!

    The parliamentary Tory party has been more than well endowed with complete nutters for many decades now.
    Yes but now there is UKIP so there is some hope that the situation may improve.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    The Tories are the party of the Union, DC was about to be skewered if Yes won or even got close, he took a risk and looks like he will win. The importance of the vote has possibly brought out potential tory voters who are unionists

    To save his hide, he has had to offer a bribe to the Scots which opens the even bigger can of worms known as the English Question as well as the none to small issue of defining exactly what Devomax is.

    Out of the frying pan into the fire...........
    he's gained time to try to sort it out at least. it wont be easy, but theres a chance
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    How can they be kicking off now! Right at the moment when the Union looks safe.

    What the hell are they going to be like after Clacton!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Official PB losers: Southam Observer (yet again, and now surely beyond credibility), Easterross, every single Scot Nat (with the possible exception of Stuart Dickson) plus all you tossers who officially predicted a YES win.

    Official PB winners: me, JackW, rcs, and I guess some others.

    Really? Does this result vindicate the mad flap you got into after that single Yougov poll a couple weeks back?
    It was the mad flap which changed the narrative, just in time. If the government - the Establishment - had listened to my clarion calls a few months earlier then we would never have come so close.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100285753/stupid-david-cameron-and-poisonous-labour-have-let-the-union-wither-and-maybe-die-i-told-you-so/


    The Union has dodged a bullet. Next time we need to make sure there is no bullet.
    It needs the economy to turn down from the start of 2015Q4 in order to give independence the extra spark that it needs to get over the line. I've never believed for one moment that this is the last we will hear of a referendum vote for a generation. Separation movements are on the rise across Europe (and birth pang beginnings in Texas, New Mexico, California in the USA). Tonight doesn't change that. Scotland has come a long way since the 1997 devolution vote. But not quite far enough to get independence. Just wait for late next year / 2016 when austerity bites in Scotland whoever wins the GE next May. Then there will be some Scots who will rue the day that they voted for Project Fear and No today.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    kle4 said:

    I've rarely been so happy, should the good news roll on, to be called a fool. now i need to question my prediction ed m will win a majority too.

    What will people remember about this campaign? Salmond winging it with no answers to the basic questions; Cameron nearly in tears as he spoke with passion to keep the union together; Ed Miliband scuttling away from a shopping centre encounter with voters......
  • IOS said:

    English MPs on English votes not enough. Need actual devolution to local government

    Hmm personally I am not at all keen about this. When I hear people talking about local government devolution in England, it seems to involve city deals for the big conurbations.No-one ever seems to be proposing any devolution for smaller urban areas or rural areas.

    Besides who would power be devolved to? I live near Didcot so would it be Vale of White Horse District or Oxfordshire county or South East region?

    My other concerns about local devolution are that things will be run less efficiently if you split up something like the NHS into lots of little chunks and that too many councils will lack scrutiny with a dominant political party.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Gove:

    "Similar sense of pace required for English changes as for Scottish changes".
  • Smarmeron said:

    @Oliver_PB
    They have a valid point..it is something needing addressed urgently.
    Devolution for Scotland will only work well if also takes into account England.

    Nothing has chaned in the four years since this government was elected. What has changed is the Conservatives electoral chances, so they're determined to move the goalposts to keep hold of power

    There are huge constitutional problems with "English votes for English laws" that could make the country ungovernable. It's not something that can be done in an afterthought a few months before a general election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Pulpstar said:

    Single (Win) 1 £ 10.00 Scottish Independence Referendum Polling Wars Survation 7/4 Pending

    Which Survation/Yougov polls are going to be used for this ?

    Their final ones.
    Yes but which is the Yougov final one ?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Sinn Fein prepare themselves for government.

    Sinn Fein are in permanent Government until someone changes the system.
  • James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 30s

    David Cameron will today indicate he wants to move 'swiftly' to implement English votes for English MPs, according to senior Tories #indyref

    Great, but how does that solve the executive problem?

    Could easily end up with Miliband PM unable to enact any domestic legislation whatsoever.
    In the US, the president does not usually have control of both houses. It is considered a sensible check on an overpowerful executive.

    We should perhaps think the same. A national government that could not get legislation through parliament on English matters against English MPs wishes is surely a good thing.
    The difference is that the president and government of the US does not have to hold the confidence of Congress to maintain in office. France might be a closer parallel, when a president has to cohabit (less common now the terms have been aligned).

    Still, a subject for the weekend, I think.
  • Comon shadsy get the cash out of your pocket and start paying out.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kle4 said:

    IOS said:

    What the hell is it with Tory back benchers having a pop at Cameron now!

    such things are the clearest sign many of them are totally unreasonable, they never pick a moment well (whereas carswell for one did), they just never stop

    Carswells timing was poor. When all eyes will be on discussions re devolution.

    BOOers may also want to reflect how in referendums the vote usually breaks for the status quo.

    Now off to bed.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited September 2014
    @JBriskin
    I have been a "No" to independence for 46 years, I will have a glass or two, but not to celebrate, I know why people voted "Yes" and the reasons are never quite the same,
    but all deeply held.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Sunil At least 2/3 rural LD seats like Aberdeenshire W and Kincardine + some rural SNP seats maybe like Angus
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014

    He gave a few vague suggestions, otherwise called "A Vow". He promised a "Cast Iron Guarantee" of a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, that didn't happen. Why do you think "The Vow" will matter on jot?

    Well if it isn't it will make him and the Tories look even more shifty and untrustworthy. I appreciate that Cameron is possibly the most politically inept politician for a generation or more but even he must realise his credibility would be severely damaged if he tried such a Blairite manoeuvre.

    Recall what happened to Nick Clegg over his Tuition Fees pledge. Now imagine that in a general Election as the sitting Prime Minister.

    PS And his failure over the Cast iron Guarantee probably cost him a majority.
  • Michael Gove pretty much confirms Dave will propose EV4EL

    Interesting. Perhaps he is learning..

    PS. Got 2 hours sleep. People think that's enough to work on tomorrow?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Single (Win) 1 £ 10.00 Scottish Independence Referendum Polling Wars Survation 7/4 Pending

    Which Survation/Yougov polls are going to be used for this ?

    Their final ones.
    Yes but which is the Yougov final one ?
    I suspect it'll be the one published at 10.30pm on Thursday.
  • James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 30s

    David Cameron will today indicate he wants to move 'swiftly' to implement English votes for English MPs, according to senior Tories #indyref

    Great, but how does that solve the executive problem?

    Could easily end up with Miliband PM unable to enact any domestic legislation whatsoever.
    The answer is more coalitions will be required in the future e.g. if Lab win the UK but not England or Tories win England but not UK. A party will need a majority in both England and the UK to govern alone.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    There's a lot of thunder in London tonight...
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380

    Michael Gove pretty much confirms Dave will propose EV4EL

    [Serious PB commentator face respected by UK journos]

    I do believe PB has pretty much managed to "kill" Gove - Policy direction will not be directed by this.

  • alexalex Posts: 244
    edited September 2014

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 30s

    David Cameron will today indicate he wants to move 'swiftly' to implement English votes for English MPs, according to senior Tories #indyref

    Great, but how does that solve the executive problem?

    Could easily end up with Miliband PM unable to enact any domestic legislation whatsoever.
    In the US, the president does not usually have control of both houses. It is considered a sensible check on an overpowerful executive.

    We should perhaps think the same. A national government that could not get legislation through parliament on English matters against English MPs wishes is surely a good thing.
    EV4EL always sounds great in theory, but you still need to find out how to introduce it in practice. Scottish Laws in a Scottish Parliament is easy because Scottish Laws is all they can do.

    The moment you try to introduce an "English" bill, it would be easy to turn it into a UK bill with the simple addition of a pork barrelled clause. EV4EL bypassed. Could it really be introduced on a clause by clause basis?

    The problem as regards forming a Govt without an English majority is that the conventional way that the viability of a Govt is defined is by the ability to pass a budget. If any EV4EL laws proposals extended to the Budget then this creates a problem.

    (there is also a minor issue that due to the varied levels of current devolution, you could easily get a situation where a vote in the House of commons ONLY applied to eg. Wales). WV4WL?
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    As predicted the people who were saying a yes would be a disaster for Cameron now saying a decisive no is a disaster for Cameron, it's really quite sad.
  • kle4 said:

    I've rarely been so happy, should the good news roll on, to be called a fool. now i need to question my prediction ed m will win a majority too.

    What will people remember about this campaign? Salmond winging it with no answers to the basic questions; Cameron nearly in tears as he spoke with passion to keep the union together; Ed Miliband scuttling away from a shopping centre encounter with voters......
    Malcolmg
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Politics is about general impressions.

    The public won't care / understand the detail. But if Cameron looks positive and authoritative proposing EVFEL and Miliband looks defensive and evasive waffling to avoid it then this will give Cameron real momentum.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Not in my part! Would look forward to a bit of thunder now would pass the time waiting for the results!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looks like the polls have been overestimating the Yes vote throughout.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    tentative Central forecast:

    NO majority: 382,000

    Is that about 45/55% ? ie 1.8m to 2.2m?
    A bit early to say. (^_-)
  • DavidL is another big winner from this referendum.

    He's my hero.
  • IOS said:

    There are a lot of Nat spanners (there are in every party) but lets not make PB not usuable for our good nat posters.

    Absolutely. Nobody needs to apologise - Scotland's had a choice, they've had a superb turnout, and it's a triumph for democracy as well as the Union, thanks to both sides.

    Agreed. It's been a passionate debate between people with deeply held beliefs. The pain the losers will feel will be more than enough.
  • There maybe one vote in it, in Inverclyde - Adam Boulton
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    edited September 2014
    Are people seriously suggesting that we should aspire to copy the US model of government? Have you followed US politics lately? It's a complete disaster.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Why not much more power for the big cities? Who could imagine these day a single local authority involved with a construction project lasting 10 years involving the building and running of 33 miles of standard gauge railway track and 73 miles of aqueduct such as Birmingham corporation and the Elan Valley dams?
  • Anyone (kindly) crunching all this data to forecast an outturn prediction?

    It comes to something when you're worried you might lose money because there's a real chance YES could drop sub-40%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    edited September 2014
    So the liberal metropolitans have had their AV referendum and lost, the nats have had their independence referendum and look to have lost, will the eurosceptics now get their turn and have an EU referendum in 2017?
  • Malcolmg deserves to be on Britain's got talent.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    There maybe one vote in it, in Inverclyde - Adam Boulton

    Sounds a bit unlikely to me, especially if YES is struggling to win Dundee.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    You bat for team Scotland so very well Smarmy - I honestly just wish your type would let me drink in the pub.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    Anyone (kindly) crunching all this data to forecast an outturn prediction?

    It comes to something when you're worried you might lose money because there's a real chance YES could drop sub-40%

    Rod C was going for 45/55 just
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,919
    edited September 2014

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 30s

    David Cameron will today indicate he wants to move 'swiftly' to implement English votes for English MPs, according to senior Tories #indyref

    Great, but how does that solve the executive problem?

    Could easily end up with Miliband PM unable to enact any domestic legislation whatsoever.
    The answer is more coalitions will be required in the future e.g. if Lab win the UK but not England or Tories win England but not UK. A party will need a majority in both England and the UK to govern alone.
    I still think there's a lot of nuances - eg one party having the confidence of the house but the English majority party refusing to serve in coalition with the UK majority party etc, that are going to cause serious headaches.

    But that's a debate to be had over the coming days. I'm off to bed now all. It does feel like a very exciting time to be British now it looks like the Union has been saved but the constitution ready for heavyweight reform. Don't let us down, please.. That goes for the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014
    MikeL said:

    Politics is about general impressions.

    The public won't care / understand the detail. But if Cameron looks positive and authoritative proposing EVFEL and Miliband looks defensive and evasive waffling to avoid it then this will give Cameron real momentum.

    And its that sort of condescending dismissal of the electorate's ability to look beyond shallow posturing that ensures the Tories can never win a majority! Tories never learn!

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Michael Gove pretty much confirms Dave will propose EV4EL

    Interesting. Perhaps he is learning..

    PS. Got 2 hours sleep. People think that's enough to work on tomorrow?
    Maybe. Unless like me you only got 3 last night.

    Haven't actually slept yet, but managed to rest my eyes at least.time to try again

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dundee isn't in the bag for YES, a shocking state of affairs for them.
  • Chris_A said:

    Anyone (kindly) crunching all this data to forecast an outturn prediction?

    It comes to something when you're worried you might lose money because there's a real chance YES could drop sub-40%

    Rod C was going for 45/55 just
    Cheers. But Glasgow still looking to go YES?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SouthamObserver
    Only at the extremes are there losers, Robbie will still be my friend tomorrow, and our dogs will never realise anything out of the ordinary happened.
    We are all Scots, dog walking and life in general will carry on.
  • Oliver_PB said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Oliver_PB
    They have a valid point..it is something needing addressed urgently.
    Devolution for Scotland will only work well if also takes into account England.

    Nothing has chaned in the four years since this government was elected. What has changed is the Conservatives electoral chances, so they're determined to move the goalposts to keep hold of power

    There are huge constitutional problems with "English votes for English laws" that could make the country ungovernable. It's not something that can be done in an afterthought a few months before a general election.
    Not having addressed an unfairness previously is no excuse for not addressing it now.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Andy

    Bad enough for Salmond to have to quit?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @kiranstacey: Everyone I've spoken to at Better Together party thinks they've lost Glasgow. Maybe not a prob for No vote, but huge prob for Scottish Lab.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Single (Win) 1 £ 10.00 Scottish Independence Referendum Polling Wars Survation 7/4 Pending

    Which Survation/Yougov polls are going to be used for this ?

    Their final ones.
    Yes but which is the Yougov final one ?
    I suspect it'll be the one published at 10.30pm on Thursday.
    Hmm that final Yougov was asking people how they'd voted - might ask for my tenner back on that market tbh !

    Survation's pre-closing poll was probably closer.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited September 2014
    Oliver_PB said:

    Are people seriously suggesting that we should aspire to copy the US model of government? Have you followed US politics lately? It's a complete disaster.

    I honestly don't know what you are referring to - some people, as ever, seem to be more in the know than overs - but surely team PB does not know everything, all the time.

  • On SKY the local paper guy was saying YES at 54-55% in Dundee
    AndyJS said:

    Dundee isn't in the bag for YES, a shocking state of affairs for them.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IOS said:

    Andy

    Bad enough for Salmond to have to quit?

    Maybe if Yes is below 40% overall he might consider his position. Dundee itself probably won't be the important factor.
  • IOS said:

    How can they be kicking off now! Right at the moment when the Union looks safe.

    What the hell are they going to be like after Clacton!</blockquote
    The Tory party is in decline. Thee is no better illustration of that than this referendum . Here we have the most important electoral decision ever taken in Britain. And the Tories could not lead the campaign to keep their country together - they had to rely on Labour politicians to lead it and Labour voters to deliver the result. They are no longer a national party.

  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    So what do we think be next to declare and when?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Single (Win) 1 £ 10.00 Scottish Independence Referendum Polling Wars Survation 7/4 Pending

    Which Survation/Yougov polls are going to be used for this ?

    Their final ones.
    Yes but which is the Yougov final one ?
    I suspect it'll be the one published at 10.30pm on Thursday.
    Hmm that final Yougov was asking people how they'd voted - might ask for my tenner back on that market tbh !

    Survation's pre-closing poll was probably closer.
    I think Survation's phone poll will win that bet, regardless.

    Edit: Poop, I've made a mistake.
  • HYUFD said:

    So the liberal metropolitans have had their AV referendum and lost, the nats have had their independence referendum and look to have lost, will the eurosceptics now get their turn and have an EU referendum in 2017?

    Unlikely. The Tories have never been in the running to win a majority.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Betfair Yes % crazy lt 40% apparently more likely than gt 45%

    Well if yes is lt 40% i promise PBers to never ever use the EICIPM phrase ever again.

    Cannot happen imo
  • kle4 said:

    Michael Gove pretty much confirms Dave will propose EV4EL

    Interesting. Perhaps he is learning..

    PS. Got 2 hours sleep. People think that's enough to work on tomorrow?
    Maybe. Unless like me you only got 3 last night.

    Haven't actually slept yet, but managed to rest my eyes at least.time to try again

    Doze well.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    edited September 2014
    James Kelly has conceded defeat.

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/
  • JBriskin said:

    Oliver_PB said:

    Are people seriously suggesting that we should aspire to copy the US model of government? Have you followed US politics lately? It's a complete disaster.

    I honestly don't know what you are referring to - some people, as ever, seem to be more in the know than overs - but surely team PB does not know everything, all the time.

    Have you not followed US politics since 2008 or something? Having two branches of government that can block each other is a recipe for disaster
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited September 2014

    Anyone (kindly) crunching all this data to forecast an outturn prediction?

    It comes to something when you're worried you might lose money because there's a real chance YES could drop sub-40%

    That 2/1 bet I suggested on 40% - 45% No is now the 4/6 favourite, so it's looking pretty good so far!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: About now Andy Murray wondering if he can withdraw his tweet #letsdothis
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @journodave: Yes campaign concede that they have lost the Western Isles, @STVNews report http://t.co/0WKGzE5PZO #indyref
  • Oliver_PB said:

    Are people seriously suggesting that we should aspire to copy the US model of government? Have you followed US politics lately? It's a complete disaster.

    It's the funding and fund-raising process that largely makes US politics what it is. The Federal Republic of Germany might be a better model to aspire to.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Power to the Cities

    Now we are talking
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited September 2014

    JBriskin said:

    Oliver_PB said:

    Are people seriously suggesting that we should aspire to copy the US model of government? Have you followed US politics lately? It's a complete disaster.

    I honestly don't know what you are referring to - some people, as ever, seem to be more in the know than overs - but surely team PB does not know everything, all the time.

    Have you not followed US politics since 2008 or something? Having two branches of government that can block each other is a recipe for disaster
    If you're referring to devomax I just prefer not to think about it. Like a true lib dem - I'm a bit of a fedaralist.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Single (Win) 1 £ 10.00 Scottish Independence Referendum Polling Wars Survation 7/4 Pending

    Which Survation/Yougov polls are going to be used for this ?

    Their final ones.
    Yes but which is the Yougov final one ?
    I suspect it'll be the one published at 10.30pm on Thursday.
    Hmm that final Yougov was asking people how they'd voted - might ask for my tenner back on that market tbh !

    Survation's pre-closing poll was probably closer.
    I think Survation's phone poll will win that bet, regardless.

    Edit: Poop, I've made a mistake.
    I have a match charity bet with James Bond on a 43% pivot - in the balance that one I think.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: an off the record concession: “@britainelects: Anything above 45% for Yes would be a "good result" according to the Yes campaign. #indyref”
  • Anyone (kindly) crunching all this data to forecast an outturn prediction?

    It comes to something when you're worried you might lose money because there's a real chance YES could drop sub-40%

    That 2/1 bet I suggested on 40% - 45% No is now the 4/6 favourite, so it's looking pretty good so far!
    Good call! Luckily I bet on that band myself before you posted that. I got on at 3.2!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    ManofKent Depends too on the seats won by UKIP
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Whatever the fallout from tonight, it still remains that the 2015GE will be the best GE to lose bar none. 5 month political honeymoon after winning in early May, and then the rot sets in from early October next year.

    Team Westminster has dodged a bullet tonight for sure, but its power and influence is decidedly on the wane.

    Good night all - I hoped it would be more exciting, but alas it just wasn't meant to be. Economics leads as always, we need the great turn down of October 2015 to get many of the urgent radical changes that are so desperately needed in the UK today.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    JohnO said:

    James Kelly has conceded defeat.

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/

    Scot goes pop alright.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Single (Win) 1 £ 10.00 Scottish Independence Referendum Polling Wars Survation 7/4 Pending

    Which Survation/Yougov polls are going to be used for this ?

    Their final ones.
    Yes but which is the Yougov final one ?
    I suspect it'll be the one published at 10.30pm on Thursday.
    Hmm that final Yougov was asking people how they'd voted - might ask for my tenner back on that market tbh !

    Survation's pre-closing poll was probably closer.
    I think Survation's phone poll will win that bet, regardless.

    Edit: Poop, I've made a mistake.
    I have a match charity bet with James Bond on a 43% pivot - in the balance that one I think.
    Also its rankling that that bet is going to be lost to effectively an exit poll >.>
  • Isn't Andy Murray a tax exile like that other SNP luvvie Sean Connery?
This discussion has been closed.