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SystemSystem Posts: 12,679
edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The early turnout figures shows it will be a record breaking turnout.

Dundee turnout is 78.8%. Its been dubbed "Yes City" – fact turnout is lower than in some other areas could be disappointing for Yes campaign

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  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    edited September 2014
    I don't want to be first - bah!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Second!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    No has it in the bag.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    Where is malcolmg?

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,036
    MaxPB said:

    No has it in the bag.

    It certainly seems that way. You can read the body language. There's no way yes would be so backward about coming forward if they thought they were doing OK
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    Yes at 16 with betfair.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Who let the public on to the BBC....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    Clackmananshire imminent.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    oxfordsimon said:

    I don't want to be first - bah!

    I tried to take your advice about grindr but there was a serious misunderstanding when I asked the see the results of the exit poll.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Itajai said:

    Where is malcolmg?

    MrG went to bed early as he is off on hols first thing later this morning.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    edited September 2014
    Itajai said:

    Where is malcolmg?

    Hiding in the bunker with Alec?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,902
    I predicted 50.29% YES
    81.56% turnout

    Probably way out on both counts :)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @MikeL
    And Falkirk
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,866
    So this much vaunted "differential turnout" from the Nats - was that just their personation effort?
  • mjtmjt Posts: 33
    Itajai said:

    Where is malcolmg?

    He fought his corner but it's done now.

    I'm not suprised he's withdrawn from the field to avoid the baiting and gloating.

  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Itajai said:

    Where is malcolmg?

    One would like to hope he's drinking malt. But the silly yessers have self-banned themselves!!!!!! Silly yesserss.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Come on Clackmannshire
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    MarqueeMark said:

    So this much vaunted "differential turnout" from the Nats - was that just their personation effort?

    No, they just got the sign wrong. Easily done.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,036
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Who let the public on to the BBC....

    I'm not sure but they seem to have picked the group with the biggest lack of charisma.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,787
    MikeL said:

    Clackmananshire imminent.

    Lundy, fair. North Uitsirre, moderating from good. Finisterre, storm warning...

  • jascowjascow Posts: 18
    Looking like a relatively solid No. I was thinking 54-46 for the past week or so but it could be as high as 10 pts which would be excellent given the enormous ramping of the Yes side.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    West Lothian 86.2%
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    I am sure NO voters would not gloat.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    JBriskin said:

    Itajai said:

    Where is malcolmg?

    One would like to hope he's drinking malt. But the silly yessers have self-banned themselves!!!!!! Silly yesserss.
    Malcolmg has long said he wouldnt be around for the results. The more active nat posters are probably at counts / spending this rather important night for them with people they like! And then there are the ones who were banned. They're probably chortling somewhere.

  • mjtmjt Posts: 33
    There is a bit of cash at 18, 21, 26 and 36.

    Otherwise there doesn't seem much to put the brakes on a very quick collapse in the Yes price.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,036
    I honestly wonder if the Yes campaign had been more upfront about some of the 'unknowns' it may have helped them. Rather than pretending absolutely everything was going to be the perfect outcome.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Yes stalwart Stewart Hosie looked furious when on Sky News just now, although he stupidly claimed Yes were still heading for victory.

    One of my favourite things about nights like this is seeing people talking absolute nonsense.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited September 2014
    Lord brown of Nokia. Still a shambles of a chancellor and pm but had some passion at least for keeping English money coming in, might be time for him to be replaced by David Miliband in my avatar...
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Clackmannan due in less than 5 minutes.
  • mjtmjt Posts: 33
    How dumb to do a live broadcast in the middle of a load of pi**ed up youths.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    hunchman said:

    Clackmannan due in less than 5 minutes.

    I predicted Yes 50.75%, No 49.25%.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    oxfordsimon said:

    Itajai said:

    Where is malcolmg?

    Hiding in the bunker with Alec?
    "Sturgeon konnte nicht genügend Kräfte für den Angriff massieren.."
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited September 2014
    [They're probably chortling somewhere.]

    Having an ounce of ideological consistency - and being a bit of a gentleman, who would give my opponents the same respect - I'd certainly hope not.

    I called it 9 months of Idiot Scotland time a long time ago.
  • mjtmjt Posts: 33
    Sky coverage really is dire...get the swearing drunks back on.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 1m

    Clackmannanshire was second in the betting to be top YES area. If YES hasn't won here.......
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Peter A Smith @PeterAdamSmith
    Follow
    No campaigners are smiling and hugging in Clackmannanshire. Yes campaigners not reacting at all. #ScotDecides #indyref
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    *CLAPS*

    I have a t-shirt with the Shipping Forecast regions on!
    viewcode said:

    MikeL said:

    Clackmananshire imminent.

    Lundy, fair. North Uitsirre, moderating from good. Finisterre, storm warning...

  • mjtmjt Posts: 33
    23 and moving >>>>>>

    Timberrrrrrrrr!
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    Here we go...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    Yes out to 22 on Betfair.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    It looks like Shadsy may get a xmas bonus after all.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,783
    Looks as though turnout is indeed going to be around 82-84% - a bit more in rural areas, substantially less in the cities.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Alistair Darling for the Order of Merit?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Plato said:

    *CLAPS*

    I have a t-shirt with the Shipping Forecast regions on!

    viewcode said:

    MikeL said:

    Clackmananshire imminent.

    Lundy, fair. North Uitsirre, moderating from good. Finisterre, storm warning...

    Funnily enough in the world of Radio 5 Sports Extra, I miss the shipping forecast when listening to TMS. Tyne, Dogger, Fastnet, Sole - so much wonderful language and terminology there!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    And Mrs RCS may not have to reassess the family budget!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    I must not troll the Nats in my thread headers, I must not troll the Nats in my thread headers
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Fire alarm at Dundee count!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Lord brown of Nokia. Still a shambles of a chancellor and pm but had some passion at least for keeping English money coming in ...

    That was pretty much the argument that to me summed up that irrespective of the result tonight, the Union is still dead. It's like a marriage where the wife has no love for the husband, is openly dismissive of him but stays because she enjoys the lifestyle.

    I've no objection to No having been negative about Yes's proposals - dismantling proponents' claims is usually the one of the strongest ways to win referendums - but the biggest disappointment to me has been the failure to sell an emotional case for the Union by Better Together. It should never have been Head vs Heart, even if Head has won; that strategy left the campaign for the heart uncontested, and if that remains, independence is simply when, not if.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I predicted Yes would win Clackmannanshire by 500 votes...
  • jascowjascow Posts: 18
    LabourList "projection" of No at 55-57%. Seems to be based on tea leaves from phone calls but more mood music. http://t.co/ixkQAxwJb1
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    NickPalmer said:

    Looks as though turnout is indeed going to be around 82-84% - a bit more in rural areas, substantially less in the cities.

    That's got to be good for No.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    So Scottish nationalism has been reduced to cries on national TV off, and wait for it....

    "F£ck her in the Pus£y"

    Well done Eck. Well done.
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    Dundee count evacuated due to ... fire alarm!?
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Dundee count evacuated due to fire alarm on BBC Scotland
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,902
    Clackmannanshire!
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    At last...
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    here we are
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I must not troll the Nats in my thread headers, I must not troll the Nats in my thread headers

    The hale world knows that I'm not overly oringal - but you're platinum grade TSE

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,902
    edited September 2014
    NOOOOOOO!

    :)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    No have this in the bag. 100%.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Wow! Woo
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Clackmannanshire: - YES 46%
  • jascowjascow Posts: 18
    Clackmannanshire Yes 16,350 No 19,036 Turnout 88.6%
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    UNS forecast YES 40.5%
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    Bye Bye Alec...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    RodCrosby said:

    UNS forecast YES 40.5%

    ARSE nailed on?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Is that it all over then????
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Clackmannanshire:

    Yes 16350
    No 19036
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    RodCrosby said:

    UNS forecast YES 40.5%

    McARSE has it. Well done Jack
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Betfair hits 49/1.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    LOL - this could be an absolute annihilation!
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Alec Salmonds contribution to modern politics.

    "F£ck her in the pus£y"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    MikeL said:

    LOL - this could be an absolute annihilation!

    Oh, that would be lovely.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Clackmannanshire is 4.5 points less Yes than I thought.

    Extrapolating that would put Yes on 42% overall.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    No other way to say it. A huge disappointment for Yes in Clackmannanshire.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,902
    West Lothian Question looks like it may need tackling :)
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    NickPalmer said:

    Looks as though turnout is indeed going to be around 82-84% - a bit more in rural areas, substantially less in the cities.

    Although still above the average for the country for a UKGE never mind anything else.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I reckon that means a Yes vote in the very low 40's

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,783
    Possibly worth punting on Yes<40% at 4-1?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Could be heading for No 58%, Yes 42%.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,036
    Big result that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,226
    8% victory margin for No in Clackmannshire
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    edited September 2014
    Yes Under 40% - 3.6 on Betfair!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    GBPUSD jumped 20-30 pips just on that result now around 1.6450
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    Just stuck in the Clackmannanshire result
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited September 2014
    Huw can't count... 46/54 = 12pct???
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    YES Pigeon droppings made from eating burnt toast crumbs .
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,389
    Ah hem. Plaudits please
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Just stuck in the Clackmannanshire result

    Where exactly did you stick it??
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,226
    46% for Yes, yougov spot on!
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Yes reaction to Clackmannanshire.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=WmJ0h9PEsf0#t=8
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Long live the Union :-) Scotland. What a country. Glad we're still going to be in business together :-) :-) :-)

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,866
    So only Dundee to vote Yes?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Don't wake Eck.
  • mjtmjt Posts: 33
    Dozens of threads; thousands of posts of build up and Yes have capitulated in a way that would make the French army blush.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    Orkney just lost their moment in the sun, Sunderland South style. I wouldn't want to be the counter who lost that ballot paper so the totals didn't match the verification!

    Clackmannanshire is the new black.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    RobD said:

    Alistair Darling for the Order of Merit?

    That's like claiming Neville Chamberlain won WWII. Darling very nearly screwed it up and it was the intervention by the three party leaders and Gordon Brown that swung it back.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    Dave is in trouble. A big win like this would mean his Vow was completely unnecessary.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,745
    This could be Dockside hooker when the fleet is in territory if Clackmannanshire is representative.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    Orkney now...
This discussion has been closed.

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