Realistically UKIP will use opposition to any new power and money for scotland as an extra campaign platform. Many in the rest of the country will be pissed in case of Devomax.
Simon Jenkins and Owen Jones now on BBC, Jenkins in particular was urging a Yes from London, now says victory for establishment, Jones says chance to rewrite UK relationship
I cannot emphasis enough just what a pivotal role Ruth Davidson has played in the Better Together campaign. She has turned up time and again at various events, and she has been totally on top of her brief and big on the facts and risks of Independence. She is also an extremely passionate politician and a very savvy media performer.
My youngest son attended the Big Debate last week, and after watching her performance he told me that I had definitely made the right call choosing her over Murdo Fraser in the Scottish Referendum. Been blown away on twitter and elsewhere at the very positive reaction she has received from both Libdem and Labour Better Together supporters I have met and engaged with. This by the way has developed into an amazing cross party coalition, and we had a bit of last night love in last night. Although, I did ask if come a No result in the early hours of Friday, would normal tribal service resume and see us all at logger heads again!
If you didn't catch last weeks BBC Radio4 Any Questions, would highly recommend it, Ruth Davidson and Jim Murphy giving a master class in why they have definitely become the Better Together A team during the whole campaign.
Scottish Labour woman on Sky totally blanking notion of EVEL and WLQ...arguing for more powers to large English metro authorities (coincidently Labour controlled). Shows their planned approach. Dishonourable, shameless scummers.
If the final result is indeed 43% : 57%, representing a No win by 14% (perhaps even more), you'd have to say that the pollsters didn't exactly cover themselves with glory.
The reason ...... for my money they hopelessly underestimated the Shy Nos, just as they will underestimate the Shy Tories next May - remember you read it here first!
If the final result is indeed 43% : 57%, representing a No win by 14% (perhaps even more), you'd have to say that the pollsters didn't exactly cover themselves with glory.
The reason ...... for my money they hopelessly underestimated the Shy Nos, just as they will underestimate the Shy Tories next May - remember you read it here first!
If the final result is indeed 43% : 57%, representing a No win by 14% (perhaps even more), you'd have to say that the pollsters didn't exactly cover themselves with glory.
The reason ...... for my money they hopelessly underestimated the Shy Nos, just as they will underestimate the Shy Tories next May - remember you read it here first!
Martin Boon admitted he thought all the polls were underestimating No voters.
Heard a number of Labourites pushing the votes for 16 year olds. It seems a clear "on the crib sheet" for the evening.
If Cameron is going for EV4EL, which is a problem for Labour, how is he going to deal with issue of 16 year old votes which clearly the Tories wont want.
Lets just see if either Salmond or Sturgeon now try to claim that anyone voting No isn't on Team Scotland just because they also support team Great Britain! That was a huge own goal by the SNP/Yes campaign, and it really pi**sed off a lot Scots in the leg of this campaign. One of the classic cases of the SNP Cybernat campaign backfiring and then biting them on the behookie on Social Network sites.
Lets just see if either Salmond or Sturgeon now try to claim that anyone voting No isn't on Team Scotland! God that was a huge own goal and real pi**sed so many Scots off in the leg of this campaign. One of the classic cases of the SNP cyber campaign backfiring and then biting them on the behookie on Social Network sites.
Absolutely stunning that a Grand Slam winning Rugby captain was not on Eck's Team Scotland
Realistically UKIP will use opposition to any new power and money for scotland as an extra campaign platform. Many in the rest of the country will be pissed in case of Devomax.
I assume what you mean (it is not clear) is that UKIP will oppose any further unilateral devolution that is proposed and will demand that an equal solution for the four home nations is provided under a federal umbrella as Paul Nuttall's paper proposes?
In particular a call to reform / abolish Barnett and for the creation of an English Parliament and the abolition of the House Of Lords.
If the final result is indeed 43% : 57%, representing a No win by 14% (perhaps even more), you'd have to say that the pollsters didn't exactly cover themselves with glory.
The reason ...... for my money they hopelessly underestimated the Shy Nos, just as they will underestimate the Shy Tories next May - remember you read it here first!
But that's good, right? If NO win by a heavy enough margin that they can claim a majority in all key sections of the Scottish electorate (e.g. Scottish men) that might help broad acceptance of the legitimacy of the result, and put it to bed.
It is hard to underestimate the importance of the No campaign holding the Lanarkshire results to about 50/50. Lanarkshire has more votes than Glasgow in total. Three weeks ago it was beginning to look like a disaster. The fight back came back with Labour accepting help from the other parties and business waking up to the threat. Over the last 3 weeks I gave up most of my day to day work to persuade my staff, my suppliers and associates to both vote and vote No. Many other businesses in the area did the same. This was a campaign fought on the streets.
If the final result is indeed 43% : 57%, representing a No win by 14% (perhaps even more), you'd have to say that the pollsters didn't exactly cover themselves with glory.
The reason ...... for my money they hopelessly underestimated the Shy Nos, just as they will underestimate the Shy Tories next May - remember you read it here first!
Shy Tories, or Shy UKIP?
Shy UKIP? Yeah, right.... UKIP are shy in the same way that ScotNats are shy. And come next May, with similar consequences.
@faisalislam: "NO" areas of Edinburgh falling 70:30 No.."Yes" falling 50:50... Says one of the observers... Explaining sight of huddled inquest of Yessers
Scottish Labour woman on Sky totally blanking notion of EVEL and WLQ...arguing for more powers to large English metro authorities (coincidently Labour controlled). Shows their planned approach. Dishonourable, shameless scummers.
Typical Scottish Labour sticking their noses in where they have no business to be!
I cashed out my (Hedged with other bookies) position on Betfair for a loss of £39. Took £1.37 for £129 profit on Yes ^_~. James Kelly conceeding convinced me it was at ~ million to one or more.
@hamiltonace " Over the last 3 weeks I gave up most of my day to day work to persuade my staff, my suppliers and associates to both vote and vote No" You also posted on here that you would no longer use a business contact because he was voting "Yes"?
I've just realised ..... OGH has slept like a baby throughout tonight's events.
He's awake now.
It was a conscious strategy, I went to bed around 2.30pm on Thursday, and woke up around 7pm. I'd take over PB from 10pm onwards, when Mike went to bed and Mike would take over, Friday morning.
We put a lot of planning into this, to make sure PBers were looked after.
When Labour say they want to devolve power to English regions, Conservatives must say:
"Are you proposing different Income tax in Manchester and Liverpool and Newcastle and Surrey and Kent?"
"If Scotland is having power over Income Tax then so must England."
If you aren't devolving Income Tax to regions then it must be devolved to England."
Were they actually proposed to devolve income tax setting to Scotland (remember they already have the power to vary the basic rate of tax)? I thought they were proposing to devolve income tax receipts? (not that i really understand how the devolving of any isolated set of taxes makes much sense whilst simultaneously having nationally allocated funding formulas (Barnett) continue.
I think there's a lot of overexcited assumptions about what will actually happen on devolution. Theory and practical implementation are two very different beasts.
The Union is safe. I will away to my bed with a final raising of the glass to JackW and his McARSE - a better performer than any other of the mainstream pollsters it would seem.
Those who would scorn him should remember that he also has firmly held views that Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister. Doubt him at your perils.
Anyone (kindly) crunching all this data to forecast an outturn prediction?
It comes to something when you're worried you might lose money because there's a real chance YES could drop sub-40%
That 2/1 bet I suggested on 40% - 45% No is now the 4/6 favourite, so it's looking pretty good so far!
Good call! Luckily I bet on that band myself before you posted that. I got on at 3.2!
If you're nervous about <40% you could always close out now.</p>
I would if I could! Unfortunately, I screwed up my betting on this market by getting nervous and chasing my tail, so I can only close out there at a loss. Or I can gamble and 'hold' for a small win anywhere in the YES 40-50% bracket.
Gove doing a good job of spinning that Cameron has a cunning plan...how true it is or how much it is Oliver Letwin-esque on the back of an envelope idea.
If the final result is indeed 43% : 57%, representing a No win by 14% (perhaps even more), you'd have to say that the pollsters didn't exactly cover themselves with glory.
The reason ...... for my money they hopelessly underestimated the Shy Nos, just as they will underestimate the Shy Tories next May - remember you read it here first!
Some of us were questioning the polls four weeks before the election, and questioning them from both sides i.e. not simply that they could be understating Yes and the possibility of independence, but that they could equally be understating No. To be fair to the pollsters, they had very little precedent to go on and to model with.
Realistically UKIP will use opposition to any new power and money for scotland as an extra campaign platform. Many in the rest of the country will be pissed in case of Devomax.
I assume what you mean (it is not clear) is that UKIP will oppose any further unilateral devolution that is proposed and will demand that an equal solution for the four home nations is provided under a federal umbrella as Paul Nuttall's paper proposes?
In particular a call to reform / abolish Barnett and for the creation of an English Parliament and the abolition of the House Of Lords.
I've just realised ..... OGH has slept like a baby throughout tonight's events.
He's awake now.
It was a conscious strategy, I went to bed around 2.30pm on Thursday, and woke up around 7pm. I'd take over PB from 10pm onwards, when Mike went to bed and Mike would take over, Friday morning.
We put a lot of planning into this, to make sure PBers were looked after.
Much appreciated, both of you. We punters do tend to take the smooth running of pb.com for granted.
Another win for No in the Western Isles. I am beginning to believe those who claimed that this was not going to be close were nearer to the truth than I was.
Another win for No in the Western Isles. I am beginning to believe those who claimed that this was not going to be close were nearer to the truth than I was.
Realistically UKIP will use opposition to any new power and money for scotland as an extra campaign platform. Many in the rest of the country will be pissed in case of Devomax.
I assume what you mean (it is not clear) is that UKIP will oppose any further unilateral devolution that is proposed and will demand that an equal solution for the four home nations is provided under a federal umbrella as Paul Nuttall's paper proposes?
In particular a call to reform / abolish Barnett and for the creation of an English Parliament and the abolition of the House Of Lords.
Precisely.
I agree there will be plenty pissed off with Cameron's latest panic stricken omnishambles in the making.
@JBriskin "You should be giving me a LOT more respect right now" You have a radio controlled bomb under my seat? *hunts around looking for suspicious packages*
Betfair seems to have completely collapsed in terms of NO.
Still a market both ways on Yes, but peanuts compared with the money in it earlier. Also still some money on both sides for Yes at 50-55in the vote share market. Still, the only market worth speaking of is whether Yes will be 40-45, under or over.
John Curtice comes out well and the Labour lead holding was crucial-Carswell's defection being timed to ensure this happened.The Quebec shuffle may well have occurred as predicted.
Comments
One of PB's busiest days ever.
"We've had over 3,000 comments on PB in the last 20 hours."
Do you have the figures for the "utter bullshit" comments yet? Or an idea when they will be available?
Edited due overdose of alchohol.
Many in the rest of the country will be pissed in case of Devomax.
The hale world knows I'm not original - tick, tock boom loser.
My youngest son attended the Big Debate last week, and after watching her performance he told me that I had definitely made the right call choosing her over Murdo Fraser in the Scottish Referendum. Been blown away on twitter and elsewhere at the very positive reaction she has received from both Libdem and Labour Better Together supporters I have met and engaged with. This by the way has developed into an amazing cross party coalition, and we had a bit of last night love in last night.
If you didn't catch last weeks BBC Radio4 Any Questions, would highly recommend it, Ruth Davidson and Jim Murphy giving a master class in why they have definitely become the Better Together A team during the whole campaign.
The reason ...... for my money they hopelessly underestimated the Shy Nos, just as they will underestimate the Shy Tories next May - remember you read it here first!
'In England but Not Run By England'
If Cameron is going for EV4EL, which is a problem for Labour, how is he going to deal with issue of 16 year old votes which clearly the Tories wont want.
We all talk bullshit, and post it.
But there sometimes gems in unexpected places.
(your mine was worked out years ago)
*blows a raspberry*.......in a non sexual way.
Heart of stone...
I'm watching Ed Conway.
Numpty
it is going to be between 43 and 46 for yes
Dark rum and You Tube for me.
In particular a call to reform / abolish Barnett and for the creation of an English Parliament and the abolition of the House Of Lords.
"Are you proposing different Income tax in Manchester and Liverpool and Newcastle and Surrey and Kent?"
"If Scotland is having power over Income Tax then so must England."
If you aren't devolving Income Tax to regions then it must be devolved to England."
Did anyone placed a bet on that outcome?
" Over the last 3 weeks I gave up most of my day to day work to persuade my staff, my suppliers and associates to both vote and vote No"
You also posted on here that you would no longer use a business contact because he was voting "Yes"?
It was a conscious strategy, I went to bed around 2.30pm on Thursday, and woke up around 7pm. I'd take over PB from 10pm onwards, when Mike went to bed and Mike would take over, Friday morning.
We put a lot of planning into this, to make sure PBers were looked after.
I think there's a lot of overexcited assumptions about what will actually happen on devolution. Theory and practical implementation are two very different beasts.
Revise them up a bit >40%
Central NO forecast lead 313,000
Those who would scorn him should remember that he also has firmly held views that Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister. Doubt him at your perils.
Goodnight all.
" I just hope, as a fellow PB Scot, that I don't sound as much of a twat online as you do."
Look at the face (human, not horse) in my current avatar.
Is that the face of someone who gives a damn about what you or anyone else thinks of him?
No 10,544
Michael Thrasher thought this was Yes's best hope.
And they have an SNP MP.
LOL!
I think I can live with that.
You should be giving me a LOT more respect right now though.
So far so good.
You must be buzzing David.
"You should be giving me a LOT more respect right now"
You have a radio controlled bomb under my seat?
*hunts around looking for suspicious packages*