If Labour ARE third, and UKIP first, that really is rather seismic.
But as yet I find it very hard to believe.
Agreed, the notion sounds preposterous. But perhaps the electorate have got a bit of savvy and have decided to give the pro-EU parties a real good thrashing.
If Labour finish 3rd it wouldn't shock me, the turnout in my area as I've said before was utterly abysmal - strong Labour area, no locals. Labour voters just don't get out of bed for the Euros only.
The only thing that might save their vote overall is the fact that locals were generally held in decentish Labour areas.
Just got a tip that the GREENS are heading for a cracking night.
As Mike has the balls to get his bets out in the open I must confess I have a decent sum on the Greens under 8% at 5/6, so I hope you are wrong.
My source may have been getting a tad overexcited
The Greens have almost complete freedom to declare it a good night. I doubt anyone even remembers what they got last time; if they lose to the LibDems that's fine and in they beat them they have another reason to celebrate.
Interestingly, the BBC have clearly received legal advice that the publication of any exit poll, not merely one relating to how people voted in the United Kingdom, is unlawful until the close of poll. The regulations should be amended forthwith if this is the true construction. It leads to the absurd position whereby voting has closed in the UK three days ago, but the British state broadcaster can't report exit polls from other countries.
Mr. Bob, I must disagree. Miliband would only go if something incredible happened. Third would be very bad but not enough for his demise.
Mr. Slackbladder, Mr. Maaaarsh, it's faintly ridiculous.
Mr Dancer, they are printing articles in the Washington Post about how weird Miliband (Ed) is.
If I see that result I will put a bet on that he will be gone by the end of the year, more likely the next time the Labour party has an opportunity to get rid of him, whenever that is (I am not that well informed as to when that might be).
Probably why he's a million miles away from power in the conservative party
He is one of the few reasons I would vote Con in an European election.
Dan Hannan is a tw*t and will always be - that's why he's a nobody is the world of politics.
That's uncalled for. Dan is someone I know personally (I've gone campaigning with him in the past, the two of us in my car) He is a thoroughly decent guy.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say UKIP will come top in Wales.
I think all those Labour voters in the valleys will have decided to say "sod you" to the established parties.
If that's so in Wales, perhaps UKIP are in with a shout of an MEP in Scotland?
All the polls were showing a tight race between Con and UKIP in Scotland, although I think they could both win a seat.
It's not a laughing matter for me (as a unionist) but there would be something perversely humorous if the United Kingdom Independence Party won its 1st MEP in Scotland, less than four months before Scotland voted for independence from the United Kingdom.
If it were an open list, and I could only pick a single candidate to vote for, it would be Hannan over Farage every time.
Quite right.
Before I voted I checked the results from last time, the polls and localy factors (we are in a UKIP "stronghold") and tried to work out which MEP my vote might actually affect. Farage and Hannan were #1 so were going to get in regardless -my vote is really only important in a marginal sense at 3/4/5 at that point the UKIP candidates looked decidedly iffy and so I voted Con on the basis that the the like for like candidate Con V UKIP were better.
Probably why he's a million miles away from power in the conservative party
He is one of the few reasons I would vote Con in an European election.
Dan Hannan is a tw*t and will always be - that's why he's a nobody is the world of politics.
That's uncalled for. Dan is someone I know personally (I've gone campaigning with him in the past, the two of us in my car) He is a thoroughly decent guy.
Sorry if you think that was uncalled for. However Dan Hannon is someone who admires Enoch Powell. You will obviously understand as a member of an ethnic minority community, I despise Enoch Powell and all that he stood for. Since Enoch Powell is Dan Hannon's hero I will have to pass on your "thoroughly decent guy" label and paint him out to a sympathiser of someone who was racist bigot.
Looks like the SNP are getting ready to ramp-up YES in the Independence Referendum if UKIP fail to take a seat in Scotland, but win big in the rest of the UK.
Probably why he's a million miles away from power in the conservative party
He is one of the few reasons I would vote Con in an European election.
Dan Hannan is a tw*t and will always be - that's why he's a nobody is the world of politics.
That's uncalled for. Dan is someone I know personally (I've gone campaigning with him in the past, the two of us in my car) He is a thoroughly decent guy.
Sorry if you think that was uncalled for. However Dan Hannon is someone who admires Enoch Powell. You will obviously understand as a member of an ethnic minority community, I despise Enoch Powell and all that he stood for. Since Enoch Powell is Dan Hannon's hero I will have to pass on your "thoroughly decent guy" label and paint him out to a sympathiser of someone who was racist bigot.
Probably why he's a million miles away from power in the conservative party
He is one of the few reasons I would vote Con in an European election.
Dan Hannan is a tw*t and will always be - that's why he's a nobody is the world of politics.
That's uncalled for. Dan is someone I know personally (I've gone campaigning with him in the past, the two of us in my car) He is a thoroughly decent guy.
AGREED and someone who will actually answers a question how he sees it NOT how he thinks you want to hear it.
Mr. Dawning, I must say I think that's a bit silly. It's very hard to see anything political causing Ed Miliband's downfall.
Yes. It's the old two-part question: Is Ed crap? Is anyone else available obviously better? You need two yesses before we can get serious about challenges.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say UKIP will come top in Wales.
I think all those Labour voters in the valleys will have decided to say "sod you" to the established parties.
The people of the valleys saying "sod you" to Labour? Seems very unlikely to me. If they do that for the Euros then they might start asking why they have crap education and health services and who is responsible. They might start asking why after decades of Labour councils they still seem to be getting the shitty end of the stick. Who knows where that sort of questioning might lead.
If Hannan was serious in his views he would join UKIP, be on the front bench and trying to make it a serious contender. Instead he's happy to sit on the back benches and make the occasional speech.
On a personal level he comes across very well and I'm sure he is a very nice person to be around.
David Torrance @davidtorrance 5 mins Chat at Edinburgh count is that SNP has (just) managed a 3rd MEP, something accepted by other parties. Caveat: might be wrong... #EP2014
Alan Roden @AlanRoden 2 mins I'm hearing the Greens have done well in Edinburgh and Glasgow. #EPScot
David Torrance @davidtorrance 5 mins Chat at Edinburgh count is that SNP has (just) managed a 3rd MEP, something accepted by other parties. Caveat: might be wrong... #EP2014
Alan Roden @AlanRoden 2 mins I'm hearing the Greens have done well in Edinburgh and Glasgow. #EPScot
Wow labour failng in its heartlands and strongholds
Probably why he's a million miles away from power in the conservative party
He is one of the few reasons I would vote Con in an European election.
Dan Hannan is a tw*t and will always be - that's why he's a nobody is the world of politics.
That's uncalled for. Dan is someone I know personally (I've gone campaigning with him in the past, the two of us in my car) He is a thoroughly decent guy.
AGREED and someone who will actually answers a question how he sees it NOT how he thinks you want to hear it.
He is also personally gracious about opponents. I remember, distinctly, a very nice essay he wrote about the essential decency of Nick Clegg, when Clegg was elected, despite the two of them disagreeing on almost everything.
Murali s, by contrast, is a bigoted, ill-informed, snivelling little git.
I find him one of the finest, most principled political writers about. And he is very good at explaining European politics.
If pro-EU politicians were as articulate and persuasive as Dan Hannan in making their case for the EU as Hannan is in presenting the anti-viewpoint, then perhaps the citizens of Europe would believe in the EU more.
Hannan makes a very, very salient point, and one I tend to find persuasive, and that is that pro-EU figures appear to want to quash debate and smear EU-reformers rather than positively espouse its good points.
Hence the growing tide of European people voting against the establishment.
If I may join the loyal opposition for a moment. Dan is the founding secretary of the AECR. He is a MEP. He believes that national political parties should act in concert across national boundaries in the European Parliament to achieve political aims. He stands for a party that doesn't plan to leave the EU and deprecates a party that does plan to leave the EU. He votes in the European Parliament and occasionally votes "yes" to proposals.
None of these things are Eurosceptic acts. In fact, they are Europhilic acts.
I know he sincerely and passionately deprecates the EU at every opportunity. But if a plastic surgeon created a society of plastic surgeons, joined the union of plastic surgeons, made his living from plastic surgery, performed plastic surgery frequently, then told you he thought plastic surgery was immoral and disgusting, you'd be entitled to think "hold on a minute".
Dan Hannan telling you he is Eurosceptic is as inherently problematic as Rob Liddle telling you he is fed up with the metropolitan elite. Both are examples of the problem, not the cures
Probably why he's a million miles away from power in the conservative party
He is one of the few reasons I would vote Con in an European election.
Dan Hannan is a tw*t and will always be - that's why he's a nobody is the world of politics.
That's uncalled for. Dan is someone I know personally (I've gone campaigning with him in the past, the two of us in my car) He is a thoroughly decent guy.
AGREED and someone who will actually answers a question how he sees it NOT how he thinks you want to hear it.
He is also personally gracious about opponents. I remember, distinctly, a very nice essay he wrote about the essential decency of Nick Clegg, when Clegg was elected, despite the two of them disagreeing on almost everything.
Murali s, by contrast, is a bigoted, ill-informed, snivelling little git.
Spot on Sean. He also thinks Caroline Lucas is (and I quote) "an absolute brick". The two don't agree on much, but do respect each other. They have a good relationship from their time campaigning against British membership of the Euro together in the 00s.
I have never heard him say a rude word about anyone.
Probably why he's a million miles away from power in the conservative party
He is one of the few reasons I would vote Con in an European election.
Dan Hannan is a tw*t and will always be - that's why he's a nobody is the world of politics.
That's uncalled for. Dan is someone I know personally (I've gone campaigning with him in the past, the two of us in my car) He is a thoroughly decent guy.
Quite agree. Juvenile dribble from murali. Dan Hannan is an excellent orator - e.g. this is arguably one of the finest and sharpest short speeches made by a British politician in living memory.
I find him one of the finest, most principled political writers about. And he is very good at explaining European politics.
If pro-EU politicians were as articulate and persuasive as Dan Hannan in making their case for the EU as Hannan is in presenting the anti-viewpoint, then perhaps the citizens of Europe would believe in the EU more.
Hannan makes a very, very salient point, and one I tend to find persuasive, and that is that pro-EU figures appear to want to quash debate and smear EU-reformers rather than positively espouse its good points.
Hence the growing tide of European people voting against the establishment.
If I may join the loyal opposition for a moment. Dan is the founding secretary of the AECR. He is a MEP. He believes that national political parties should act in concert across national boundaries in the European Parliament to achieve political aims. He stands for a party that doesn't plan to leave the EU and deprecates a party that does plan to leave the EU. He votes in the European Parliament and occasionally votes "yes" to proposals.
None of these things are Eurosceptic acts. In fact, they are Europhilic acts.
I know he sincerely and passionately deprecates the EU at every opportunity. But if a plastic surgeon created a society of plastic surgeons, joined the union of plastic surgeons, made his living from plastic surgery, performed plastic surgery frequently, then told you he thought plastic surgery was immoral and disgusting, you'd be entitled to think "hold on a minute".
Dan Hannan telling you he is Eurosceptic is as inherently problematic as Rob Liddle telling you he is fed up with the metropolitan elite. Both are examples of the problem, not the cures
Far more eloquent than I am but this is Hannan to a tee.
Comments
The only thing that might save their vote overall is the fact that locals were generally held in decentish Labour areas.
I think all those Labour voters in the valleys will have decided to say "sod you" to the established parties.
I do not believe this will happen.
Mr. Slackbladder, Mr. Maaaarsh, it's faintly ridiculous.
If I see that result I will put a bet on that he will be gone by the end of the year, more likely the next time the Labour party has an opportunity to get rid of him, whenever that is (I am not that well informed as to when that might be).
http://beta.betfair.com/politics/market?id=1.111931148
Britain Elects 2014 @britainelects 9m
#EP2014 'Die Welt' exit poll projection:
UKIP - 24 MEPs
Labour - 22
Con - 17
Green - 6
Lib Dem - 2
SNP - 3
PC - 1
SF - 1
DUP 1
UUP 1
Turnout in the NORTH EAST: 31%
If it were an open list, and I could only pick a single candidate to vote for, it would be Hannan over Farage every time.
Quite right.
Before I voted I checked the results from last time, the polls and localy factors (we are in a UKIP "stronghold") and tried to work out which MEP my vote might actually affect.
Farage and Hannan were #1 so were going to get in regardless -my vote is really only important in a marginal sense at 3/4/5 at that point the UKIP candidates looked decidedly iffy and so I voted Con on the basis that the the like for like candidate Con V UKIP were better.
European Parliament estimates turnout in the UK was 36%, up from 34.7% at the last European Parliament polls in 2009.
Am told Lib Dems are in fifth place in Cardiff Central, the parliamentary seat they hold #europeanelections
EU law is against actual revealing of the results iirc.
On a personal level he comes across very well and I'm sure he is a very nice person to be around.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/25/nick-clegg-ukip-liberal-democrats-european-election-campaign-british-politics
Chat at Edinburgh count is that SNP has (just) managed a 3rd MEP, something accepted by other parties. Caveat: might be wrong... #EP2014
Alan Roden @AlanRoden 2 mins
I'm hearing the Greens have done well in Edinburgh and Glasgow. #EPScot
Rumour mill in full swing on election night. Indications are that Plaid have won Carmarthenshire, and UKIP may have knocked Labour into 3rd.
I have been meaning to ask for years-is that the train on Hythe pier across from Southampton??
In Ceredigion the Lib Dems, who hold the Westminster seat, may finish 4th behind Plaid, UKIP and Labour (in that order).
None of these things are Eurosceptic acts. In fact, they are Europhilic acts.
I know he sincerely and passionately deprecates the EU at every opportunity. But if a plastic surgeon created a society of plastic surgeons, joined the union of plastic surgeons, made his living from plastic surgery, performed plastic surgery frequently, then told you he thought plastic surgery was immoral and disgusting, you'd be entitled to think "hold on a minute".
Dan Hannan telling you he is Eurosceptic is as inherently problematic as Rob Liddle telling you he is fed up with the metropolitan elite. Both are examples of the problem, not the cures
I have never heard him say a rude word about anyone.
(2009 in brackets)
GUE/NGL 47 (35)
S&D 193 (195)
G/EFA 58 (58)
ALDE 74 (83)
EPP 211 (274)
ECR 39 (57)
EFD 33 (31)
oth 96 (32)
https://twitter.com/electionista
Eurosceptics win in France (FN) and Denmark (DPP) - Syriza leading Greek exit polls.
UK t/o estimated at 36%, was under 20% in Czech Rep & Slovakia.
Poroshenko wins Ukraine presidency in Rd 1, according to exits.
Thx,
DC