I am a pagan, my father was a pagan and his father before him a pagan etc...back into the mists of time it is sort of a family tradition
I happen to accredit much of the state of the universe to a girl god
When atheists say "look around how can you believe in god when you look at the state of the world" I can say god is a girl and I happen to know she has a fondness for Tequila
It seems the height of cultural centrism to judge the existence of a God of the universe basd on the goings on of one rock in billions.
How many other states have this rotten party list system for the Euros? It wouldn't surprise me if votes decided to raise two fingers to LDs, Cons & Labour.
Heard some of the UKIP list speak, aural equivalent of watching drying paint and plaster. Wouldn't have thought it was possible to work out which was the least appealing candidate. If anything the List System is a conspiracy by the political parties to reward the hacks and least talented candidates. It looks like a rotten system designed to produce a very a rotten institution.
Can anyone explain why the TUSC candidate in Northwood Hills was able to beat all 3 LD candidates and the Green with 364 votes? His name is Wally Kennedy:
Reading East MP: "Reading count all over but result not till 10pm. Guessing at the trays it's Labour 1st, Conservative 2nd UKIP 3rd Green 4th then Lib Dems."
2009 was Con 28.8 Lab 18.9 Greens 14.5 LD 13.4 UKIP 12.8
Not just a high English population, but also a very mobile international population due to the oil and gas industry. I live in just about the most rural Tory patch of Aberdeenshire, and that bed rock of their support in this patch is very much due to the local farming community.
Twitter AberdeenshireCouncil @Aberdeenshire 41s Turnout in @Aberdeenshire in the European Election is 32.63% - up from the 29.11% last time. Counting of ballot papers about to start.
Is Aberdeenshire an SNP area ?
It also has an extremely large 'English' population as a result of the Oil industry.
So if (and I only say if) UKIP do win tonight, who do you think they would prefer to see come second?
Personally I think they would rather the Tories came second. It would go some way to defeating the idea that a UKIP vote would split the Right and so let Labour in whilst also putting a lot more pressure on Miliband to move towards a referendum pledge.
Thoughts?
I'd quite like to see the Conservatives <20%, the story being a repeat of the rise of the Reform Party of Canada.
Even though his consigliere has been round the studios supporting Clegg,if he is to go,it will be Dom Pants-Down who makes him an offer he just cannot refuse.
Good to see that the Hibbies would rather have some derby games next season than play in the top flight. Hearts, Rangers and Hibs - should be the better division!
Should be excellent and may be some bargain season tickets from Rangers, half price season ticket fire sale would be nice.
Rangers and Hibs in the same division again is a nightmare, particularly after Glasgow Central a couple of years back.
Labour on the drift on Betfair, 5-1 available now - buit if they haven't been able to take Wales convincingly I can't see it.
Do you think OGH will mention his position on this at all, and if he does, will he be able to avoid referencing his Obama bet to justify it?
If UKIP don't win, several PBers are out of pocket, and Mike will be able to rightly gloat all he likes !
Given the news this morning about Andrew Lansley I can gloat over my 16/1 bet on next EU Commissioner - that covers several times over any EP14 losses assuming I have them.
At least I've the bottle to announce my bets before outcomes are known
seen a tweet saying Danish TV are covering the results from Southampton and asked Sunderland when they expect to declare - answer was not until after 10pm but we usually first
You've got to be kidding — Hounslow council haven't bothered to say which party the candidates belong to, which means the process will take twice as long:
Social Democrats (LAB) 24% (n/c) Environment Party (GRN) 17% (+6) Moderates (CON) 13% (-6) Peoples' Party (LD) 10% (-4) Left Party (RESPECT) 8% (+2) Sweden Democrats (UKIP) 7% (+3) Feminist Initiative 7% (+5) Centre Party (LD) 6% (n/c) Christian Democrats (CON) 5% (n/c) Pirate Party 3% (-4) others 1% (-3)
I guess turnout will be slightly higher overall. Both Labour vote and UKIP vote up in the cities outside London; in some of the northern areas, it'll be a two-horse race. UKIP should win by a clear margin outside the major urban conurbations. In places like Bristol, Cambridge, Oxford, Manchester, Leicester and London, Labour will probably do quite well, but it won't be enough to compensate for the UKIP surge. Norwich may have as strong a Green showing as Labour.
If (and it's a big "if" ) UKIP are 3rd in Reading, neck-and-neck in Leeds and it's "too close to call" in Wales, then it's all over and Labour have lost the national vote.
Labour on the drift on Betfair, 5-1 available now - buit if they haven't been able to take Wales convincingly I can't see it.
Do you think OGH will mention his position on this at all, and if he does, will he be able to avoid referencing his Obama bet to justify it?
If UKIP don't win, several PBers are out of pocket, and Mike will be able to rightly gloat all he likes !
Given the news this morning about Andrew Lansley I can gloat over my 16/1 bet on next EU Commissioner - that cover several times over any EP14 losses.
Has he been named ?
If so that's great news ! Another winner at Paddy Power
All but named in S Times this morning:-
"DAVID CAMERON has told ministers that he will send Andrew Lansley, the leader of the Commons, to Brussels as Britain’s next EU commissioner.
Lansley is seen as a safe pair of hands who is Eurosceptic enough not to enrage Tory backbenchers but will be able to win the approval of Nick Clegg, who has publicly claimed that he would veto the appointment of anyone too extreme.
One ministerial aide said: “Cameron is telling ministers that it will be Lansley. He has said it to several people.” A second senior government source confirmed: “It’s basically decided. It’s Lansley.”
Britain will give up the role of EU high representative for foreign affairs, the post held at present by Baroness Ashton, and will instead seek an economic portfolio in the new European Commission where Lansley will be expected to fight for deregulation and business-friendly changes to the single market.
Appointing Lansley will also create a cabinet post that will enable the prime minister to promote a younger colleague before the summer recess.
Cameron had considered appointing Andrew Mitchell, the former chief whip, to Brussels. But outstanding court action over the Plebgate affair that had forced Mitchell to resign has ruled him out.
Another official said: “Lansley has his flaws but he’s capable of engaging with big, complicated issues. He’s not a zealot.”
Under one idea being discussed, the Tories would avoid a by-election with Lansley remaining an MP until the general election while starting his job as a commissioner in January."
I think the smear campaign had an effect so I think it's somewhere around evens as to whether UKIP or Labour will top the poll.
Being a little sceptical of Labour's honesty I would bet, if I had to, on Labour topping the poll.
Survation's EU Parliament poll was: UKIP 32%, Lab 27%, Con 23%.
Their local election poll was taken the same day. UKIP and the Conservatives over performed their local election predictions, and Labour under performed.
Labour on the drift on Betfair, 5-1 available now - buit if they haven't been able to take Wales convincingly I can't see it.
Do you think OGH will mention his position on this at all, and if he does, will he be able to avoid referencing his Obama bet to justify it?
If UKIP don't win, several PBers are out of pocket, and Mike will be able to rightly gloat all he likes !
Given the news this morning about Andrew Lansley I can gloat over my 16/1 bet on next EU Commissioner - that cover several times over any EP14 losses.
Has he been named ?
If so that's great news ! Another winner at Paddy Power
All but named in S Times this morning:-
"DAVID CAMERON has told ministers that he will send Andrew Lansley, the leader of the Commons, to Brussels as Britain’s next EU commissioner.
Lansley is seen as a safe pair of hands who is Eurosceptic enough not to enrage Tory backbenchers but will be able to win the approval of Nick Clegg, who has publicly claimed that he would veto the appointment of anyone too extreme.
One ministerial aide said: “Cameron is telling ministers that it will be Lansley. He has said it to several people.” A second senior government source confirmed: “It’s basically decided. It’s Lansley.”
Britain will give up the role of EU high representative for foreign affairs, the post held at present by Baroness Ashton, and will instead seek an economic portfolio in the new European Commission where Lansley will be expected to fight for deregulation and business-friendly changes to the single market.
Appointing Lansley will also create a cabinet post that will enable the prime minister to promote a younger colleague before the summer recess.
Cameron had considered appointing Andrew Mitchell, the former chief whip, to Brussels. But outstanding court action over the Plebgate affair that had forced Mitchell to resign has ruled him out.
Another official said: “Lansley has his flaws but he’s capable of engaging with big, complicated issues. He’s not a zealot.”
Under one idea being discussed, the Tories would avoid a by-election with Lansley remaining an MP until the general election while starting his job as a commissioner in January."
Nice one, wish I had more on now - but then again I wish that with all winners ^_~
Reading East MP: "Reading count all over but result not till 10pm. Guessing at the trays it's Labour 1st, Conservative 2nd UKIP 3rd Green 4th then Lib Dems."
2009 was Con 28.8 Lab 18.9 Greens 14.5 LD 13.4 UKIP 12.8
The Reading local government election result was: Lab 36.1%, Con 23.6%, Green 12.6%, UKIP 8.3%, LD 8.2%.
Under one idea being discussed, the Tories would avoid a by-election with Lansley remaining an MP until the general election while starting his job as a commissioner in January."
Would he be allowed to? Ashton had to take leave of absence from the Lords fairly immediately (bit of a cop-out as far as I am concerned, she should have been made to renounce her stupid title).
UKIP were 4th in 2009 in Wales. If that's true, UKIP are +17% and Labour around +9%. Or, put it another way, Labour vote up around 50% and UKIP vote more than doubling.
2009 Wales results
Conservative 21.2% Labour 20.3% Plaid Cymru 18.5% UK Independence Party 12.8% Liberal Democrats 10.7% Green Party 5.6% British National Party 5.4%
Labour on the drift on Betfair, 5-1 available now - buit if they haven't been able to take Wales convincingly I can't see it.
Do you think OGH will mention his position on this at all, and if he does, will he be able to avoid referencing his Obama bet to justify it?
If UKIP don't win, several PBers are out of pocket, and Mike will be able to rightly gloat all he likes !
Given the news this morning about Andrew Lansley I can gloat over my 16/1 bet on next EU Commissioner - that covers several times over any EP14 losses assuming I have them.
At least I've the bottle to announce my bets before outcomes are known
@MikeSmithson well done to you and @Pulpstar for a great bet. Ukip likely to top the poll this evening, but, as you say, at least you have the balls to stake your claim before the winners come in.
BBC Wales Politics @WalesPolitics · ora Plaid sources say the party's polling across Wales points to UKIP and Labour running neck and neck ^NS.
If ( stress if ) true a kicking for the Plaid leader who made a real dismissive swipe at UKIP. The Valleys breakdown of largely wwc votes will be interesting. Still no results yet, just rumours.
Lord Ashcroft EP Exit Poll: 1st UKIP 29%, 2nd Conservatives 24%, 3rd Labour 21%, 4th Lib Dems 8%. Conservatives beat Labour to 2nd place
UNS
25/21/17/2
disastrous for Labour, if true. Quids in for me, also...
As I said, I sold Labour at 26% and would have sold them down to 24%. I think that's a bit low and would prob put them around 23%, but nothing would surprise me to be honest.
BBC Wales Politics @WalesPolitics 11m John Atkinson, campaign manager for UKIP in Wales says party will get 30% of the vote and is neck and neck with Labour ^NS.
That'd be pretty incredible.
I don't believe it — I've been going on about the possibility of UKIP coming first in Wales!
I think UKIP were about 10/1 at Hills for Most Votes in Wales.
Mr. Royale, indeed, nothing wrong with small stakes. It's a source of mild amusement to me that I may well make less than anyone who actually follows my F1 tips.
I note someone just said Betfair in play markets were closed, I have put some money where my mouth is and bet that Labour will garner most votes:
Labour Most Votes 5.6 £2.00 £9.20 Ref: 3771291xxxxM Matched: 21:23 25-May-14
Credit to you. I am also a small stakes gambler. Nothing wrong with that either. I don't have the nerve for the big time!
:-) I am winning and losing hundreds on...... cricket, living in Switzerland does not make for good UK political psephology but a small flutter makes the result more interesting.
BBC Wales Politics @WalesPolitics 11m John Atkinson, campaign manager for UKIP in Wales says party will get 30% of the vote and is neck and neck with Labour ^NS.
That'd be pretty incredible.
I don't believe it — I've been going on about the possibility of UKIP coming first in Wales!
I think UKIP were about 10/1 at Hills for Most Votes in Wales.
Despite farting on about it for many days, I didn't put a bet on it. Stupid me.
Mr. Royale, indeed, nothing wrong with small stakes. It's a source of mild amusement to me that I may well make less than anyone who actually follows my F1 tips.
I do wish I had the "frame" of Mike Smithson, Rod Crosby or Peter from Putney though. I would be a lot wealthier!
I had a feeling Labour would come third. It will clearly put Ed's leadership under huge pressure. But I'm not sure what real significance the result actually has on anything. The GE will look very different. It would be nice if UKIP scored under 30%.
Comments
I think it would be very favourable to UKIP for the major four parties to come in the order of how eurosceptic they are.
Heard some of the UKIP list speak, aural equivalent of watching drying paint and plaster. Wouldn't have thought it was possible to work out which was the least appealing candidate. If anything the List System is a conspiracy by the political parties to reward the hacks and least talented candidates. It looks like a rotten system designed to produce a very a rotten institution.
http://www.hillingdon.gov.uk/article/28195/Northwood-Hills-ward-results-2014
2009 was Con 28.8 Lab 18.9 Greens 14.5 LD 13.4 UKIP 12.8
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27569057
He's a billionaire and pro-EU.
Feminist Initiative and Sweden Democrats (both 7%) both look set to get their first MEPs.
Con 32,555 (36.03%)
Lab 25,216 (27.91%)
UKIP 16,059 (17.77%)
Green 6,668 (7.38%)
LD 3,302 (3.65%)
Ind 2,717 (3.01%)
TUSC 2,260 (2.50%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Con -7.43%
Lab -1.10%
UKIP +17.30%
Green +3.97%
LD -14.08%
Ind -0.04%
TUSC +2.50%
Being a little sceptical of Labour's honesty I would bet, if I had to, on Labour topping the poll.
At least I've the bottle to announce my bets before outcomes are known
Yet again, the EU is blamed for something they did not do.
The ban on exit polls is a UK law - not a Euro one.
If so that's great news ! Another winner at Paddy Power
http://elections.hounslow.gov.uk/elections/results_by_polling_place/16
Social Democrats (LAB) 24% (n/c)
Environment Party (GRN) 17% (+6)
Moderates (CON) 13% (-6)
Peoples' Party (LD) 10% (-4)
Left Party (RESPECT) 8% (+2)
Sweden Democrats (UKIP) 7% (+3)
Feminist Initiative 7% (+5)
Centre Party (LD) 6% (n/c)
Christian Democrats (CON) 5% (n/c)
Pirate Party 3% (-4)
others 1% (-3)
If (and it's a big "if" ) UKIP are 3rd in Reading, neck-and-neck in Leeds and it's "too close to call" in Wales, then it's all over and Labour have lost the national vote.
Socialists - 33%
PSD/CDS (main centre-right): 27%
Communists: 12.8%
MPT (Earth Party): 7.3%
Far Left but not communists: 5.5%.
LiVRE (something Greenish): 2%
"DAVID CAMERON has told ministers that he will send Andrew Lansley, the leader of the Commons, to Brussels as Britain’s next EU commissioner.
Lansley is seen as a safe pair of hands who is Eurosceptic enough not to enrage Tory backbenchers but will be able to win the approval of Nick Clegg, who has publicly claimed that he would veto the appointment of anyone too extreme.
One ministerial aide said: “Cameron is telling ministers that it will be Lansley. He has said it to several people.” A second senior government source confirmed: “It’s basically decided. It’s Lansley.”
Britain will give up the role of EU high representative for foreign affairs, the post held at present by Baroness Ashton, and will instead seek an economic portfolio in the new European Commission where Lansley will be expected to fight for deregulation and business-friendly changes to the single market.
Appointing Lansley will also create a cabinet post that will enable the prime minister to promote a younger colleague before the summer recess.
Cameron had considered appointing Andrew Mitchell, the former chief whip, to Brussels. But outstanding court action over the Plebgate affair that had forced Mitchell to resign has ruled him out.
Another official said: “Lansley has his flaws but he’s capable of engaging with big, complicated issues. He’s not a zealot.”
Under one idea being discussed, the Tories would avoid a by-election with Lansley remaining an MP until the general election while starting his job as a commissioner in January."
Their local election poll was taken the same day. UKIP and the Conservatives over performed their local election predictions, and Labour under performed.
Maybe Italy too - though their politics is always bonkers.
#RUMOUR Greens beat Lib Dems into fourth place at Reading count. [according to Reading MP]
#RUMOUR Labour neck and neck with UKIP at 30% in Wales. [according to campaign managers at the count]
It is just a pity that Pork is not present to share in the joys of our success.
Lab 36.1%, Con 23.6%, Green 12.6%, UKIP 8.3%, LD 8.2%.
http://www.reading.gov.uk/elections/election/10/shareOfVote/
Utterly different subjects, of course, but it does sharpen the mind when you know a successful or failed tip is made public.
2009 Wales results
Conservative 21.2%
Labour 20.3%
Plaid Cymru 18.5%
UK Independence Party 12.8%
Liberal Democrats 10.7%
Green Party 5.6%
British National Party 5.4%
Plaid sources say the party's polling across Wales points to UKIP and Labour running neck and neck ^NS.
Labour
Most Votes 5.6 £2.00
£9.20
Ref: 3771291xxxxM Matched: 21:23 25-May-14
25/21/17/2
disastrous for Labour, if true. Quids in for me, also...
It is the countries with a sense of humour that have gone on a frolic.
He won the locals so I think he'll be ok...
If LAB come in 3rd place, the INDYREF market is gonna be fun.
I'm on the edge of my seat here. Great fun!
Thank god for Vanilla.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2014/05/25/01003-20140525ARTFIG00126-jaruzelski-le-dictateur-qui-se-voulait-patriote.php
UKIP Most Votes 1.18
UKIP Most Seats 1.15
Did you win on the GP today.
I only had a loss on the qualy, Nico screw ed me :-(