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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Great 2014 Euro Elections Polling Race
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Great 2014 Euro Elections Polling Race
There next few hours will be quite a nervous time for the pollsters because not too long after 10pm their final surveys will be able to be compared with the actual results.
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Anyway, I want UKIP to win, as this would give me a chance of winning the Ladbrokes competition.
FPT: Mr. Briskin, if Ricciardo had passed Hamilton this would've extended Rosberg's advantage, and I want Rosberg to take the title (backed him at 16/1 and 24/1).
Here's my post-race analysis of the Monaco Grand Prix: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/monaco-post-race-analysis.html
Edited extra bit: if you back Mercedes to win the Constructors with Ladbrokes, £50 gets you a potential 17 pence profit.
For the avoidance of doubt, this is *not* a tip.
Which is also why if UKIP finish well people would be wrong to call to ignore the pollsters underrating them for future GE polling. GEs having a much higher turnout rate than Euros will work for ICM and YouGov's methodology better.
Will it just be one declaration for each region? Or will we get results for smaller areas as they become available?
People's Party 27,1(5 seats)
Social Democratcs 23,8 (5)
FPÖ 20,1 (4)
Greens 14,6 (3)
NEOS 8,3 (1)
turnout 45.5%
It would be +2 for FPO, + 1 for Greens and -1 for People's Party
I have a horrible feeling Labour will come third.
Result expected after midnight
I had UKIP higher, but can't recall the exact numbers, and the parties in the same order.
EU count well underway in Merton. Interesting only @ukip and @MertonLibDems counting agents here. Others as complacent as usual?
UKIP 1.33
Lab 3.35
Con 50
Betfair In-Play - Euros - Most Seats (121 026 pounds matched)
UKIP 1.28
Lab 3.1
Con 60
So far, 539 of the 949 seats have been filled. Fianna Fáil has won 127, followed by Sinn Féin on 104.
Both government parties are behind in the polls at present. Fine Gael has 100 seats and Labour 29.
Independents and others have won 128. The turnout nationally was 50.8%. Counting for the European Parliament began on Sunday morning.
Voters also went to the polls to elect two new TDs (Irish MPs) following the death of one and the resignation of another.
Fine Gael's Gabrielle McFadden won the seat in the Longford Westmeath by-election.
It was formerly held by her sister - the late Fine Gael TD Nicky McFadden - she died in March from Motor Neurone Disease.
The Dublin West by-election was won by Socialist Party candidate Ruth Coppinger - she replaced Independent Patrick McNulty.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27564333
2013 locals: LD 13.9%, UKIP 19.9%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZMVENacEVqMUI0bWZaQk13c041S3c&usp=sheets_web#gid=0
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/06/29/final-vote-tally-from-last-months-locals-shows-ukip-in-second-place-in-seats-contested/
Labour was 2000 votes ahead of the Greens in Norwich this year- though a handful behind in Norwich South. In 2009 the Greens had a big lead there - but still came a poor 4th in 2010.
I expect them to do no better in 2015.
If we fall one vote short of a second seat, I'll be kicking myself!
#RUMOUR: Yorkshire and North-Lincs count says Greens rumoured to have overtaken Lib Dems as fourth largest party.
LDs look to have had a good day, upper end of MoE for their national numbers. UKIP's numbers vary by pollster. YouGov look too low, Survation, ComRes within MoE.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
I put the last month of polling on these euros into a graph.
It appears you are being more than just aimlessly stupid today.
Your first post on this matter made the clear implication that LibDem MP's would not enjoy any "fairy story incumbency" as noted often on PB and that Prof Curtice supported this view.
He did not and how could he as it is axiomatic that none of the elections related to constituency MP's. What Prof Curtice did note was that in many council seats there was little or no difference between those with LibDem MP's or not and that next year would see if actual LibDem MP stickability was in play or not.
I agree.
I used to go to Wentworth to watch the Picadilly World Match Play many many years ago.
A touch of schadenfreude - it's headed for 90 here today, so seeing them all bundled up at Wentworth brings back some chilly memories :-)
... it is the junior coalition partners Labour who are clearly bearing the brunt of the backlash for years of punishing cutbacks, with candidates losing seats nationwide.
High profile casualties in the Labour drubbing include Lord Mayor of Dublin Oisin Quinn and Lord Mayor of Cork Catherine Clancy.
http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/elections/sinn-fein-on-course-to-triple-seats-30303213.html
A warning there for the Lib Dems there: junior coalition partners are usually the ones who get squished, not the main coalition party.
http://www.chelmsford.gov.uk/european-elections
Your first post on this matter made the clear implication that LibDem MP's would not enjoy any "fairy story incumbency" as noted often on PB and that Prof Curtice supported this view.
He did not and how could he as it is axiomatic that none of the elections related to constituency MP's. What Prof Curtice did note was that in many council seats there was little or no difference between those with LibDem MP's or not and that next year would see if actual LibDem MP stickability was in play or not.
I agree.
John Curtice: - "Consequently, on average Liberal Democrat support was down just as much – that is, by no less than 13 points – in Liberal Democrat MPs’ constituencies as elsewhere. In short, there was little consistent sign of the ability of Liberal Democrats’ personal popularity to stem the receding tide. And next year their own seats will be on the line."
Looks crystal clear to me Jack. You must be reading a different article.
twitter.com/SuzanneEvans1/status/470594865034952704
In case anyone is interested.
It is crystal clear.
I agree with Prof Curtice.
You agree with something Prof Curtice didn't say.
http://brandirectory.com/league_tables/table/top-50-football-club-brands-2014
P.S. Nice new avatar, by the way.
UKIP - 29%
Conservative - 24%
Labour - 21%
LibDem - 8%
Other - 18%
I think he would marginally prefer Lab to UKIP - to avoid a UKIP publicity spike which would put Newark at risk.
Obviously he won't want Lab to be too far ahead but something like Lab 27, UKIP 26, Con 23 would be OK.
UKIP 31%
Labour 29%
Tory. 24%
Greens 7%
Other. 9%
HillmanMinx Joined December 2013 Visits 30
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I meant Lib Dems on 7%, Greens and others on 9%
ÖVP 27.4%
SPÖ 23.8%
FPÖ 19.5%
Greens 15.1%
NEOS 7.9%
CDU 35.9
SPD 27.2
Greens 10.8
Linke 7.5
AfD 6.8
FDP 3.1
there's no threshold anymore...so everybody will get seats..even parties at 1% as they use a big single constituency
UKIP 26
Lab 24
Con 21
Green 8
LD 7
Others 14
http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/uklocalgov/makeup.htm
UKIP 27
Labour 25
Con 23
Green 10
Lib Dem 8
LD 8,863
Lab 6,822
UKIP 4,142
Con 4,103
Green 950
Changes since 2010 locals:
LD -3.39%
Lab +1.63%
UKIP +16.16%
Con -14.00%
Green -3.35%
16% is a very low share for the Tories in a seat they currently hold at Westminster.