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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Great 2014 Euro Elections Polling Race

SystemSystem Posts: 12,564
edited May 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Great 2014 Euro Elections Polling Race

There next few hours will be quite a nervous time for the pollsters because not too long after 10pm their final surveys will be able to be compared with the actual results.

Read the full story here


«13456

Comments

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2014
    Greens finish FIRST in Norwich City Council. 219 votes ahead of Labour.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,725
    edited May 2014
    Hmm. I thought my comment had gone through, but a few minutes later it's still missing..

    Anyway, I want UKIP to win, as this would give me a chance of winning the Ladbrokes competition.

    FPT: Mr. Briskin, if Ricciardo had passed Hamilton this would've extended Rosberg's advantage, and I want Rosberg to take the title (backed him at 16/1 and 24/1).

    Here's my post-race analysis of the Monaco Grand Prix: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/monaco-post-race-analysis.html

    Edited extra bit: if you back Mercedes to win the Constructors with Ladbrokes, £50 gets you a potential 17 pence profit.

    For the avoidance of doubt, this is *not* a tip.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    It's a question of turnout methodology.

    Which is also why if UKIP finish well people would be wrong to call to ignore the pollsters underrating them for future GE polling. GEs having a much higher turnout rate than Euros will work for ICM and YouGov's methodology better.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    surbiton said:

    Greens finish FIRST in Norwich City Council. 219 votes ahead of Labour.

    I tipped the Greens to win Norwich South at 25/1 a couple of weeks ago, to widespread polite scepticism. You can still get them at that price with Paddy Power. It's a bargain.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Can you include Survation's local elections poll in the contest? I thought that was pretty impressive.
  • MaxUMaxU Posts: 87
    Does anyone know what percentage of the electorate was involved in last Thursday's locals?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    How will the UK results be declared tonight?

    Will it just be one declaration for each region? Or will we get results for smaller areas as they become available?
  • HillmanMinxHillmanMinx Posts: 33
    Informed people are telling me that this could be a big night for Labour. It is on a knife-edge.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Austria exit poll

    People's Party 27,1(5 seats)
    Social Democratcs 23,8 (5)
    FPÖ 20,1 (4)
    Greens 14,6 (3)
    NEOS 8,3 (1)

    turnout 45.5%

    It would be +2 for FPO, + 1 for Greens and -1 for People's Party
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    UKIP will win.

    I have a horrible feeling Labour will come third.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Danny565 said:

    UKIP will win.

    I have a horrible feeling Labour will come third.

    Labour finishing third looks unlikely to me. They're more likely to finish first than third, and I'm not expecting that either.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    HillmanMinx said:

    Informed people are telling me that this could be a big night for Labour. It is on a knife-edge.

    You mean they might win? I thought the Ashcroft exit poll had them scrapping for third with the Conservatives.

  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    Danny565 said:

    UKIP will win.

    I have a horrible feeling Labour will come third.

    No sweat, labour will finish second at worst.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    antifrank said:

    surbiton said:

    Greens finish FIRST in Norwich City Council. 219 votes ahead of Labour.

    I tipped the Greens to win Norwich South at 25/1 a couple of weeks ago, to widespread polite scepticism. You can still get them at that price with Paddy Power. It's a bargain.
    I dont think there is any chance of a Green win in Norwich South in 2015. Losing the strong candidate from 2005 / 2010 hasnt helped but the inevitable increase in Labour votes simply makes the winning post too high. Elbowing the Lib Dems aside will be good enough.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    JackW said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    JackW said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SNIP

    That analysis runs counter to the fairy stories we are regularly peddled here at PB about the LD incumbency effect.

    I think you'll find punters weren't voting on their LibDem MP's incumbency in the local/euro elections. That comes near year.

    Apart from that gaping whole in your thinking that was a searing analysis.

    But it was not my analysis Jack, it was John Curtice's analysis today:

    - "on average Liberal Democrat support was down just as much – that is, by no less than 13 points – in Liberal Democrat MPs’ constituencies as elsewhere. In short, there was little consistent sign of the ability of Liberal Democrats’ personal popularity to stem the receding tide"

    Curtice is usually a respected voice here at PB. Strange that you become so dismissive of him when he says something you do not agree with.
    I'll allow you the benefit of the doubt and assume that your original comment wasn't about LibDem MP''s and their "fairy story" incumbency, which of course wasn't what Prof Curtice was referring too.

    I have a very high regard for the esteemed Prof and very largely agree with him on most issues.

    For the avoidance of any doubt Jack, here are John Curtice's exact words today:
    ... it was difficult to find a silver lining to the cloud hanging over the Liberal Democrats. Once the local elections were the party’s forte; now they have become an annual embarrassment.

    The party argued – not for the first time – that it was often performing better in places where it already has a sitting MP and thus has a strong base of local support. Indeed, there was the occasional bright spot – the party actually did better than in the 2010 general election in Bradford East and Birmingham Yardley. But there were plenty of disappointments too, not least the fact that the party came second to the Conservatives in Vince Cable’s Twickenham constituency and lost control of Ed Davey’s Kingston backyard.

    Consequently, on average Liberal Democrat support was down just as much – that is, by no less than 13 points – in Liberal Democrat MPs’ constituencies as elsewhere. In short, there was little consistent sign of the ability of Liberal Democrats’ personal popularity to stem the receding tide. And next year their own seats will be on the line.
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-curtice-ukip-vote-not-as-good-as-last-year-1-3421612
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    antifrank said:

    Danny565 said:

    UKIP will win.

    I have a horrible feeling Labour will come third.

    Labour finishing third looks unlikely to me. They're more likely to finish first than third, and I'm not expecting that either.
    Sadly, I know many Labour people who were planning to vote Greens in the Euros to try and give Labour a kick up the arse.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    We should add our PB "prediction" poll... 

    UKIP            27
    Labour          26
    Conservative    23
    LD               8
    Closest to YouGov, I think.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    According to Sunday Politics Wales turnout here in Wales was 32% increase of 1.5% on 2009 with the lowest turnout 27% in Merthyr aand highest 38% on Anglesey

    Result expected after midnight
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    It's nail biting time for all true kippers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,725
    Mr. Hopkins, cheers for that little table.

    I had UKIP higher, but can't recall the exact numbers, and the parties in the same order.
  • HillmanMinxHillmanMinx Posts: 33
    MaxU said:

    Does anyone know what percentage of the electorate was involved in last Thursday's locals?

    Mike has been reporting that it was 58%

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    HillmanMinx said:

    Informed people are telling me that this could be a big night for Labour. It is on a knife-edge.

    It can hardly be a very big night for Labour if it is on a knife edge - look how well the tories did when they were in opposition. If it's close it's no ringing endorsement of anyone.
  • MaxUMaxU Posts: 87
    edited May 2014
    deleted as rather an embarrassing comment.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Suzanne Evans ‏@SuzanneEvans1 3m
    EU count well underway in Merton. Interesting only @ukip and @MertonLibDems counting agents here. Others as complacent as usual?
  • MaxUMaxU Posts: 87
    HillmanMinx said:

    MaxU said:

    Does anyone know what percentage of the electorate was involved in last Thursday's locals?

    Mike has been reporting that it was 58%

    Thanks, that's a lot higher than I thought. Is that an England, Great Britain or United Kingdom figure do you know?

  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,192
    A UKIP win. I initially thought the Left would rally behind Labour on a stop-UKIP crusade, but they appear unmotivated.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    remind me someone, did the Lib Dems outperform on vote share in the locals compared to national polling? And what about UKIP? Actual local election vote share above or below national polling? And how did either do compared to last year?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    UKIP still drifting at Betfair In-Play - Euros - Most Votes (121 462 pounds matched)

    UKIP 1.33
    Lab 3.35
    Con 50

    Betfair In-Play - Euros - Most Seats (121 026 pounds matched)

    UKIP 1.28
    Lab 3.1
    Con 60
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    More than half of council seats in Republic of Ireland local elections filled

    So far, 539 of the 949 seats have been filled. Fianna Fáil has won 127, followed by Sinn Féin on 104.

    Both government parties are behind in the polls at present. Fine Gael has 100 seats and Labour 29.

    Independents and others have won 128. The turnout nationally was 50.8%. Counting for the European Parliament began on Sunday morning.

    Voters also went to the polls to elect two new TDs (Irish MPs) following the death of one and the resignation of another.

    Fine Gael's Gabrielle McFadden won the seat in the Longford Westmeath by-election.

    It was formerly held by her sister - the late Fine Gael TD Nicky McFadden - she died in March from Motor Neurone Disease.

    The Dublin West by-election was won by Socialist Party candidate Ruth Coppinger - she replaced Independent Patrick McNulty.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27564333
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    MaxU said:

    HillmanMinx said:

    MaxU said:

    Does anyone know what percentage of the electorate was involved in last Thursday's locals?

    Mike has been reporting that it was 58%

    Thanks, that's a lot higher than I thought. Is that an England, Great Britain or United Kingdom figure do you know?

    It's actually 38%±. Don't know where you got the 58% figure from Minx.
  • MaxUMaxU Posts: 87
    MikeK said:

    MaxU said:

    HillmanMinx said:

    MaxU said:

    Does anyone know what percentage of the electorate was involved in last Thursday's locals?

    Mike has been reporting that it was 58%

    Thanks, that's a lot higher than I thought. Is that an England, Great Britain or United Kingdom figure do you know?

    It's actually 38%±. Don't know where you got the 58% figure from Minx.
    Thats more the area I imagined. Is that a United Kingdom figure?
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    The averages across all polling companies are CON 22.2%,Lab 27.0%, UKIP 30.0% ,LD 7.4%.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MrsB said:

    remind me someone, did the Lib Dems outperform on vote share in the locals compared to national polling? And what about UKIP? Actual local election vote share above or below national polling? And how did either do compared to last year?

    2014 locals: LD 10.9%, UKIP 17.2%
    2013 locals: LD 13.9%, UKIP 19.9%


    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZMVENacEVqMUI0bWZaQk13c041S3c&usp=sheets_web#gid=0

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/06/29/final-vote-tally-from-last-months-locals-shows-ukip-in-second-place-in-seats-contested/
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited May 2014




    Labour was 2000 votes ahead of the Greens in Norwich this year- though a handful behind in Norwich South. In 2009 the Greens had a big lead there - but still came a poor 4th in 2010.
    I expect them to do no better in 2015.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,131
    On the Sunday Politics NE section today, Ian Mearns was talking up Labour's chances of winning 2 seats. The Conservative guest (soz, forgotten her name - PPC for Berwick) put Martin Callanan's chances of keeping his seat at 7 or 8 out of 10. The presenter literally laughed at the idea of the Lib Dems retaining their seat!

    If we fall one vote short of a second seat, I'll be kicking myself!
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Using all my finest thinking. 

    UKIP: 29 
    Lab: 26 
    Con: 23 
    LD: 8
  • MaxUMaxU Posts: 87
    Are there any indications of a differential turnout between locals and non-locals areas. Intuitively one assumes there are but does anyone have a view as to extent?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Britain Elects 2014 ‏@britainelects 1m

    #RUMOUR: Yorkshire and North-Lincs count says Greens rumoured to have overtaken Lib Dems as fourth largest party.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    corporeal said:

    Using all my finest thinking.


    UKIP: 29 
    Lab: 26 
    Con: 23 
    LD: 8
    Err... suspiciously identical to Shadsy's line bets!! :)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    MaxU said:

    MikeK said:

    MaxU said:

    HillmanMinx said:

    MaxU said:

    Does anyone know what percentage of the electorate was involved in last Thursday's locals?

    Mike has been reporting that it was 58%

    Thanks, that's a lot higher than I thought. Is that an England, Great Britain or United Kingdom figure do you know?

    It's actually 38%±. Don't know where you got the 58% figure from Minx.
    Thats more the area I imagined. Is that a United Kingdom figure?
    Thats the figure I remember the BBC giving for the Locals. I think it was the UK wide figure but can't be sure.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,714
    My impression is that turnout in the East Midlands in non-local areas was around 30%, i.e. a bit below the 38% for areas that also had locals. But that's second-hand info, don't rely on it.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    MrsB said:

    remind me someone, did the Lib Dems outperform on vote share in the locals compared to national polling? And what about UKIP? Actual local election vote share above or below national polling? And how did either do compared to last year?

    anotherDave said:

    2014 locals: LD 10.9%, UKIP 17.2%
    2013 locals: LD 13.9%, UKIP 19.9%

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZMVENacEVqMUI0bWZaQk13c041S3c&usp=sheets_web#gid=0

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/06/29/final-vote-tally-from-last-months-locals-shows-ukip-in-second-place-in-seats-contested/

    Re: polling
    LDs look to have had a good day, upper end of MoE for their national numbers. UKIP's numbers vary by pollster. YouGov look too low, Survation, ComRes within MoE.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    anotherDave said:

    MrsB said:

    remind me someone, did the Lib Dems outperform on vote share in the locals compared to national polling? And what about UKIP? Actual local election vote share above or below national polling? And how did either do compared to last year?

    anotherDave said:

    2014 locals: LD 10.9%, UKIP 17.2%
    2013 locals: LD 13.9%, UKIP 19.9%

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZMVENacEVqMUI0bWZaQk13c041S3c&usp=sheets_web#gid=0

    http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/06/29/final-vote-tally-from-last-months-locals-shows-ukip-in-second-place-in-seats-contested/

    Re: polling
    LDs look to have had a good day, upper end of MoE for their national numbers. UKIP's numbers vary by pollster. YouGov look too low, Survation, ComRes within MoE.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    http://cf.datawrapper.de/IOSUX/2/

    I put the last month of polling on these euros into a graph.
  • MaxUMaxU Posts: 87
    NickPalmer said:

    My impression is that turnout in the East Midlands in non-local areas was around 30%, i.e. a bit below the 38% for areas that also had locals. But that's second-hand info, don't rely on it.

    Thanks- that's less of a differential than I had imagined but a differential nonetheless. The turnout for local elections, which do matter (or at least matter much more than European elections) is atrocious isn't it.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    marke09 said:

    Britain Elects 2014 ‏@britainelects 1m

    #RUMOUR: Yorkshire and North-Lincs count says Greens rumoured to have overtaken Lib Dems as fourth largest party.

    Not a surprise. Greens did tremendously well in Manchester for example.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,351
    HillmanMinx said:

    Informed people are telling me that this could be a big night for Labour. It is on a knife-edge.

    What is on a knife edge and what do you mean by "a big night"? Bear in mind that every opposition since 1984 has won the European elections, so Labour finishing top is no great shakes; indeed, it would be absolutely normal.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    marke09 said:

    Britain Elects 2014 ‏@britainelects 1m

    #RUMOUR: Yorkshire and North-Lincs count says Greens rumoured to have overtaken Lib Dems as fourth largest party.

    Not a surprise. Greens did tremendously well in Manchester for example.
    Surprises me. I thought the Greens were a SE England party.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Turnout around here was a bit below 30% at the polling stations, add on postal votes and I would guess about 38% over all, and that is an area without locals. I also think that UKIP have taken about 33% of the vote in this area, maybe more.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    anotherDave said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    marke09 said:

    Britain Elects 2014 ‏@britainelects 1m

    #RUMOUR: Yorkshire and North-Lincs count says Greens rumoured to have overtaken Lib Dems as fourth largest party.

    Not a surprise. Greens did tremendously well in Manchester for example.
    Surprises me. I thought the Greens were a SE England party.

    Nope. They do quite well in Scotland for example. And this year they seem to have benefited from disgruntled Lib Dems in several bits of northern England.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    UKIP trading at 1.29 at Betfair. This ain't over yet.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    JackW said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    JackW said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SNIP

    That analysis runs counter to the fairy stories we are regularly peddled here at PB about the LD incumbency effect.

    I think you'll find punters weren't voting on their LibDem MP's incumbency in the local/euro elections. That comes near year.

    Apart from that gaping whole in your thinking that was a searing analysis.

    But it was not my analysis Jack, it was John Curtice's analysis today:

    Curtice is usually a respected voice here at PB. Strange that you become so dismissive of him when he says something you do not agree with.


    For the avoidance of any doubt Jack, here are John Curtice's exact words today:
    ... it was difficult to find a silver lining to the cloud hanging over the Liberal Democrats. Once the local elections were the party’s forte; now they have become an annual embarrassment.

    The party argued – not for the first time – that it was often performing better in places where it already has a sitting MP and thus has a strong base of local support. Indeed, there was the occasional bright spot – the party actually did better than in the 2010 general election in Bradford East and Birmingham Yardley. But there were plenty of disappointments too, not least the fact that the party came second to the Conservatives in Vince Cable’s Twickenham constituency and lost control of Ed Davey’s Kingston backyard.

    Consequently, on average Liberal Democrat support was down just as much – that is, by no less than 13 points – in Liberal Democrat MPs’ constituencies as elsewhere. In short, there was little consistent sign of the ability of Liberal Democrats’ personal popularity to stem the receding tide. And next year their own seats will be on the line.
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-curtice-ukip-vote-not-as-good-as-last-year-1-3421612


    It appears you are being more than just aimlessly stupid today.

    Your first post on this matter made the clear implication that LibDem MP's would not enjoy any "fairy story incumbency" as noted often on PB and that Prof Curtice supported this view.

    He did not and how could he as it is axiomatic that none of the elections related to constituency MP's. What Prof Curtice did note was that in many council seats there was little or no difference between those with LibDem MP's or not and that next year would see if actual LibDem MP stickability was in play or not.

    I agree.


  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited May 2014
    Watching Rory finish his round in the BMW at Wentworth. If he wins I think this will be his first win in Europe.

    I used to go to Wentworth to watch the Picadilly World Match Play many many years ago.

    A touch of schadenfreude - it's headed for 90 here today, so seeing them all bundled up at Wentworth brings back some chilly memories :-)
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Sinn Fein on course to triple seats

    ... it is the junior coalition partners Labour who are clearly bearing the brunt of the backlash for years of punishing cutbacks, with candidates losing seats nationwide.

    High profile casualties in the Labour drubbing include Lord Mayor of Dublin Oisin Quinn and Lord Mayor of Cork Catherine Clancy.

    http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/elections/sinn-fein-on-course-to-triple-seats-30303213.html

    A warning there for the Lib Dems there: junior coalition partners are usually the ones who get squished, not the main coalition party.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    anotherDave said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    marke09 said:

    Britain Elects 2014 ‏@britainelects 1m

    #RUMOUR: Yorkshire and North-Lincs count says Greens rumoured to have overtaken Lib Dems as fourth largest party.

    Not a surprise. Greens did tremendously well in Manchester for example.
    Surprises me. I thought the Greens were a SE England party.

    core libs are green-lite. if libs implode greens go up.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Turnout reported as 36.2% in Eastern England
    http://www.chelmsford.gov.uk/european-elections
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    JackW said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    JackW said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    JackW said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    SNIP

    That analysis runs counter to the fairy stories we are regularly peddled here at PB about the LD incumbency effect.

    But it was not my analysis Jack, it was John Curtice's analysis today:

    Curtice is usually a respected voice here at PB. Strange that you become so dismissive of him when he says something you do not agree with.
    For the avoidance of any doubt, here are John Curtice's exact words today:
    ... it was difficult to find a silver lining to the cloud hanging over the Liberal Democrats. Once the local elections were the party’s forte; now they have become an annual embarrassment.

    The party argued – not for the first time – that it was often performing better in places where it already has a sitting MP and thus has a strong base of local support. Indeed, there was the occasional bright spot – the party actually did better than in the 2010 general election in Bradford East and Birmingham Yardley. But there were plenty of disappointments too, not least the fact that the party came second to the Conservatives in Vince Cable’s Twickenham constituency and lost control of Ed Davey’s Kingston backyard.

    Consequently, on average Liberal Democrat support was down just as much – that is, by no less than 13 points – in Liberal Democrat MPs’ constituencies as elsewhere. In short, there was little consistent sign of the ability of Liberal Democrats’ personal popularity to stem the receding tide. And next year their own seats will be on the line.
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-curtice-ukip-vote-not-as-good-as-last-year-1-3421612
    It appears you are being more than just aimlessly stupid today.

    Your first post on this matter made the clear implication that LibDem MP's would not enjoy any "fairy story incumbency" as noted often on PB and that Prof Curtice supported this view.

    He did not and how could he as it is axiomatic that none of the elections related to constituency MP's. What Prof Curtice did note was that in many council seats there was little or no difference between those with LibDem MP's or not and that next year would see if actual LibDem MP stickability was in play or not.

    I agree.



    John Curtice: - "Consequently, on average Liberal Democrat support was down just as much – that is, by no less than 13 points – in Liberal Democrat MPs’ constituencies as elsewhere. In short, there was little consistent sign of the ability of Liberal Democrats’ personal popularity to stem the receding tide. And next year their own seats will be on the line."

    Looks crystal clear to me Jack. You must be reading a different article.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "Results can start to be announced tonight 10pm when other EU countries have finished voting"

    twitter.com/SuzanneEvans1/status/470594865034952704
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    marke09 said:

    Britain Elects 2014 ‏@britainelects 1m

    #RUMOUR: Yorkshire and North-Lincs count says Greens rumoured to have overtaken Lib Dems as fourth largest party.

    I wouldn't be surprised if they overtook the Lib Dems in virtually every region.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    turn out in Wokingham Borough for locals was 39.55% and for Euros 39.07%.
    In case anyone is interested.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited May 2014
    @Stuart_Dickson

    It is crystal clear.

    I agree with Prof Curtice.

    You agree with something Prof Curtice didn't say.



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,741
    HurstLlama said:

    Turnout around here was a bit below 30% at the polling stations, add on postal votes and I would guess about 38% over all, and that is an area without locals. I also think that UKIP have taken about 33% of the vote in this area, maybe more.

    Whats 'this area' ?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2014
    MrsB said:

    turn out in Wokingham Borough for locals was 39.55% and for Euros 39.07%.
    In case anyone is interested.

    Wokingham-ites are infamous slackers. At some point Reading will have to banish them to the wastelands beyond the Berkshire border.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,714
    My bet with DavidL that Euro-turnout will be up on last time (was 34% or something like that, Ithink?) is looking hopeful.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    The world's most valuable football brands, according to Brand Finance:

    http://brandirectory.com/league_tables/table/top-50-football-club-brands-2014
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    FPT Carnyx - this for the reco on Caorunn gin - as my favourite at the mo is another Scottish gin, Hendricks, I shall look this one out! As it's Thai owners are doing great things with Old Poultney I have high expectations!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    NickPalmer said:

    My bet with DavidL that Euro-turnout will be up on last time (was 34% or something like that, Ithink?) is looking hopeful.

    Are you at a count Nick ?

  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    @CarlottaVance you should try The Botanist from Bruichladdich
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Pulpstar said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Turnout around here was a bit below 30% at the polling stations, add on postal votes and I would guess about 38% over all, and that is an area without locals. I also think that UKIP have taken about 33% of the vote in this area, maybe more.

    Whats 'this area' ?
    Mid Sussex

    P.S. Nice new avatar, by the way.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    is hillman minx stuart truth?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    MrsB said:

    @CarlottaVance you should try The Botanist from Bruichladdich

    Show the cat the way to the dairy.......

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,139
    My guess:

    UKIP - 29%
    Conservative - 24%
    Labour - 21%
    LibDem - 8%
    Other - 18%
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Thomas the cat has just discovered Herself's newly planted and hidden emergency reserve catmint plant and he has levered off the wire net covering it. In a few minutes he will stoned out of his tiny feline mind, she will find out, there will be hell to pay and, of course, it will all be my fault. Off to do the ironing so that I can claim both innocence and ignorance.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2014
    Testing
  • MaxUMaxU Posts: 87
    viewcode said:

    My guess:

    UKIP - 29%
    Conservative - 24%
    Labour - 21%
    LibDem - 8%
    Other - 18%

    If that is the case I will be a very happy man and Red Ed maybe out of a job, but I rather doubt it. If Labour does come third (and I rate the chances of that at no more than 9/1) it will only be by a fraction of a per cent.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Who does Cameron want to win tonight?

    I think he would marginally prefer Lab to UKIP - to avoid a UKIP publicity spike which would put Newark at risk.

    Obviously he won't want Lab to be too far ahead but something like Lab 27, UKIP 26, Con 23 would be OK.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    viewcode said:

    My guess:

    UKIP - 29%
    Conservative - 24%
    Labour - 21%
    LibDem - 8%
    Other - 18%

    Mine is:

    UKIP 31%
    Labour 29%
    Tory. 24%
    Greens 7%
    Other. 9%
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited May 2014
    nigel4england said:

    viewcode said:

    My guess:

    UKIP - 29%
    Conservative - 24%
    Labour - 21%
    LibDem - 8%
    Other - 18%

    Mine is:

    UKIP 31%
    Labour 29%
    Tory. 24%
    Greens 7%
    Other. 9%
    LibDems on 0% is a bold prediction !!

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    How credible is this poster?

    HillmanMinx Joined December 2013 Visits 30
    Points -12 Posts 25
    Reactions 0 Off Topic 0 Spam 12
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    JackW said:

    nigel4england said:

    viewcode said:

    My guess:

    UKIP - 29%
    Conservative - 24%
    Labour - 21%
    LibDem - 8%
    Other - 18%

    Mine is:

    UKIP 31%
    Labour 29%
    Tory. 24%
    Greens 7%
    Other. 9%
    LibDems on 0% is a bold prediction !!

    My mistake but it would be funny though!

    I meant Lib Dems on 7%, Greens and others on 9%
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    98% counted in Austria

    ÖVP 27.4%
    SPÖ 23.8%
    FPÖ 19.5%
    Greens 15.1%
    NEOS 7.9%
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2014
    Germany projections

    CDU 35.9
    SPD 27.2
    Greens 10.8
    Linke 7.5
    AfD 6.8
    FDP 3.1

    there's no threshold anymore...so everybody will get seats..even parties at 1% as they use a big single constituency
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Can anyone give me a link to how many libdem Councillors there are now left in. England?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    How come we are getting all these numbers from other countries but we weren't allowed to reveal before 10..?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    I saw verifications on Thursday night at the count in Sutton and all I can say is UKIPmay be on for a much better night than anyone expects by quite a distance..
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    How credible is this poster?

    HillmanMinx Joined December 2013 Visits 30
    Points -12 Posts 25
    Reactions 0 Off Topic 0 Spam 12

    I would like to know how he has this inside information considering counting didn't start in many places until 6pm?
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    kjohnw said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    How credible is this poster?

    HillmanMinx Joined December 2013 Visits 30
    Points -12 Posts 25
    Reactions 0 Off Topic 0 Spam 12

    I would like to know how he has this inside information considering counting didn't start in many places until 6pm?
    Why hasn't the money been hovered up from Betfair if there is inside knowledge

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    I think we're all underestimating the other others. Last time around the English Democrats got almost 2%, Christian Voice got over 1% as did the Socialist Labour party and a couple of others (if memory serves). My guess is:

    UKIP 26
    Lab 24
    Con 21
    Green 8
    LD 7
    Others 14
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    timmo said:

    Can anyone give me a link to how many libdem Councillors there are now left in. England?

    England, Wales and Scotland: 2,257

    http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/uklocalgov/makeup.htm
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Is there really an embargo till 10 pm? Are we all waiting for Portugal?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    98% counted in Austria

    ÖVP 27.4%
    SPÖ 23.8%
    FPÖ 19.5%
    Greens 15.1%
    NEOS 7.9%

    I thought they weren't allowed to release any results until 10pm UK time?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Evening all, popcorn and appletise at the ready in preparation for a night of "excitement". Will be interesting to see which pollsters have overegged the pudding. Can UKIP really rise from 17% NEV to around 30% in the Euros when the turnout in those parts of the country without locals on Thursday is likely to be lower and was in Scotland, Wales and rural areas where UKIP tends to be less attractive.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,131
    Good to see that the Hibbies would rather have some derby games next season than play in the top flight. Hearts, Rangers and Hibs - should be the better division!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    you are waiting for Italy. It's the last country to finish.
    Dadge said:

    Is there really an embargo till 10 pm? Are we all waiting for Portugal?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,741
    New 'finger in the air' projection:

    UKIP 27
    Labour 25
    Con 23
    Green 10
    Lib Dem 8
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    How credible is this poster?

    HillmanMinx Joined December 2013 Visits 30
    Points -12 Posts 25
    Reactions 0 Off Topic 0 Spam 12

    From what I know I'd say that he's reasonably credible - good contacts with one of the main parties.

  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,902
    So how is it that we are being given results from AUT and GER?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Easterross said:

    Evening all, popcorn and appletise at the ready in preparation for a night of "excitement". Will be interesting to see which pollsters have overegged the pudding. Can UKIP really rise from 17% NEV to around 30% in the Euros when the turnout in those parts of the country without locals on Thursday is likely to be lower and was in Scotland, Wales and rural areas where UKIP tends to be less attractive.

    Could be a lot of vote splitting with UKIP.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Good news for the LDs. They stayed ahead in Watford:

    LD 8,863
    Lab 6,822
    UKIP 4,142
    Con 4,103
    Green 950

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    LD -3.39%
    Lab +1.63%
    UKIP +16.16%
    Con -14.00%
    Green -3.35%

    16% is a very low share for the Tories in a seat they currently hold at Westminster.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,115
    Stark_Dawning said:

    A UKIP win. I initially thought the Left would rally behind Labour on a stop-UKIP crusade, but they appear unmotivated.

    That would have involved Labour actually mentioning Europe during their campaign.

  • MaxUMaxU Posts: 87
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Germany projections

    CDU 35.9
    SPD 27.2
    Greens 10.8
    Linke 7.5
    AfD 6.8
    FDP 3.1

    there's no threshold anymore...so everybody will get seats..even parties at 1% as they use a big single constituency

    When did they abolish the threshold? Very surprising as arguably the lack of a threshold was the Weimar electoral system's biggest fault. Does that apply to Bundestag elections as well?
This discussion has been closed.