I had a feeling Labour would come third. It will clearly put Ed's leadership under huge pressure. But I'm not sure what real significance the result actually has on anything. The GE will look very different. It would be nice if UKIP scored under 30%.
Ed is in the brown stuff if that Ashcroft poll is correct.
Anyone surprised? Miliband has treated the European elections with astonishing insouciance. His election material has been, at best, of tangential relevance and he's barely been on the airwaves. It's as if he'd rather they didn't exist at all.
If you don't make much effort with the voters, don't expect them to make much effort with you.
I honestly think Ed is a gonner if Labour come 3rd. There's no getting around it, they NEED a politician who actually "communicates" well, i.e. speaks like a humanbeing, to win back the defectors to UKIP. Andy Burnham is Labour's only candidate who fulfills that criteria
I had a feeling Labour would come third. It will clearly put Ed's leadership under huge pressure. But I'm not sure what real significance the result actually has on anything. The GE will look very different. It would be nice if UKIP scored under 30%.
Pull the other one.
Not sure what you mean. I'd love EdM to be replaced. It might mean I could vote Labour. But he's not going anywhere, sadly. As for this election, there is just no way the GE will look anything like the result we get tonight.
We had this Ashcroft exit poll stuff last night - someone did a data fit to his polling by party and the best fit was the numbers stated. As I say, this was yesterday's news.
Anyway, I've cracked open a bottle of Spitfire - I'm sure Mr Farage would approve of my choice of ale!
Mr. Dawning, I hope we get to find out. Can't see Miliband being tossed overboard. Even if Labour actually wanted to, they showed with Brown how rubbish they are at regicide.
I'll have a charity bet with you for £20 that Labour won't come third. Even money but as you are a good sort I won't mind losing as I'm sure your charity will be a very worthy one.
I don't think Labour will poll third however so £20 to Amnesty or Shelter (you choose) is what you stand to lose.
I honestly think Ed is a gonner if Labour come 3rd. There's no getting around it, they NEED a politician who actually "communicates" well, i.e. speaks like a humanbeing, to win back the defectors to UKIP. Andy Burnham is Labour's only candidate who fulfills that criteria
What are the odds on both Ed and Nick being gone before the general election?
Mr. Dawning, I hope we get to find out. Can't see Miliband being tossed overboard. Even if Labour actually wanted to, they showed with Brown how rubbish they are at regicide.
The difference is Ed isn't as much of an egoist as Brown, and might choose to go himself if it becomes obvious as a big liability.
I'll have a charity bet with you for £20 that Labour won't come third. Even money but as you are a good sort I won't mind losing as I'm sure your charity will be a very worthy one.
I don't think Labour will poll third however so £20 to Amnesty or Shelter (you choose) is what you stand to lose.
What do you say?
Sounds fair, but how about WaterAid if I win? Shelter if you do?
Mr. 565, doubt it. Even taking a kind view of his victory over his brother, imagine ending your brother's political career and then not even remaining in place for one General Election.
I'll have a charity bet with you for £20 that Labour won't come third. Even money but as you are a good sort I won't mind losing as I'm sure your charity will be a very worthy one.
I don't think Labour will poll third however so £20 to Amnesty or Shelter (you choose) is what you stand to lose.
What do you say?
Sounds fair, but how about WaterAid if I win? Shelter if you do?
Done. I'll PM you after we know if you win, if I win you PM me. Cheers sir.
Wasn't sure about the Rosberg issue so didn't accuse him of cheating but if the yellow flags only came out after he reversed, my opinion of him will be lower.
Mr Brooke is back! Yay! Now where is young Jessop?
Apols Mr L. I've been lurking this week as the interminable kipper sledging just got tedious, also I've fuming about effing lawyers who are just being prats on a deal so was too grumpy to post.
I find him one of the finest, most principled political writers about. And he is very good at explaining European politics.
If pro-EU politicians were as articulate and persuasive as Dan Hannan in making their case for the EU as Hannan is in presenting the anti-viewpoint, then perhaps the citizens of Europe would believe in the EU more.
Hannan makes a very, very salient point, and one I tend to find persuasive, and that is that pro-EU figures appear to want to quash debate and smear EU-reformers rather than positively espouse its good points.
Hence the growing tide of European people voting against the establishment.
Front National 25.3 UMP 20.3 Socialists 14.7 UDi/Modem 10 Greens 8.7 Left Front 6.6
Wow, thats really awful for hollande.
Really awful for France!
It's just those mainlanders with their narrow-minded continental mentality.
The two German-speaking nations appear to have voted solidly and sensibly.
It is the rest who will be regarding the EP elections as a sort of Eurovision for comedians.
Is it surprising when hardly anyone knows who their MEPs are, what the parliament does, or what relation (if any) they have in passing legislation or making or breaking the EU executive?
I'll have a charity bet with you for £20 that Labour won't come third. Even money but as you are a good sort I won't mind losing as I'm sure your charity will be a very worthy one.
I don't think Labour will poll third however so £20 to Amnesty or Shelter (you choose) is what you stand to lose.
What do you say?
Sounds fair, but how about WaterAid if I win? Shelter if you do?
Done. I'll PM you after we know if you win, if I win you PM me. Cheers sir.
Not sure my PM thing works. Give it a go, but if I don't get back you have my word I'll make the donation direct to Shelter (or Amnesty if you prefer).
I'll have a charity bet with you for £20 that Labour won't come third. Even money but as you are a good sort I won't mind losing as I'm sure your charity will be a very worthy one.
I don't think Labour will poll third however so £20 to Amnesty or Shelter (you choose) is what you stand to lose.
What do you say?
Sounds fair, but how about WaterAid if I win? Shelter if you do?
Done. I'll PM you after we know if you win, if I win you PM me. Cheers sir.
Not sure my PM thing works. Give it a go, but if I don't get back you have my word I'll make the donation direct to Shelter (or Amnesty if you prefer).
I'll absolutely take your word. You have my word too.
The Lab majority odds have been all over the place the last few days, it's been a cracking sideshow. If they have come 3rd then they should shoot right out, if even a half-decent second I reckon that should be priced in (but it probably won't, much as the marginals poll which showed the same swing as national polls moved the market).
Pulpstar, just to give you a flavour of the sort of predators on Betfair: I dumped £2 on the Tories at 240 about 40 minutes ago. Just layed off a £5 five minutes ago at 80.
I'll have a charity bet with you for £20 that Labour won't come third. Even money but as you are a good sort I won't mind losing as I'm sure your charity will be a very worthy one.
I don't think Labour will poll third however so £20 to Amnesty or Shelter (you choose) is what you stand to lose.
What do you say?
Sounds fair, but how about WaterAid if I win? Shelter if you do?
Done. I'll PM you after we know if you win, if I win you PM me. Cheers sir.
Not sure my PM thing works. Give it a go, but if I don't get back you have my word I'll make the donation direct to Shelter (or Amnesty if you prefer).
I'll absolutely take your word. You have my word too.
Excellent! Should be a fun night. As I say below, though, a lot will be read into the result that isn't really there.
I guess even party obsevers are getting carried away if they are not expert.
If Lab and UKIP are neck and neck, I would guess neither of them should be high enough to outpoll Con and Plaid 2:1 unless one of them totally bombed. Or maybe I'm just tired
Mr. Dickson, would it? I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just not sure whether a good night for the Greens would necessarily prove terrible for Labour.
Not sure if I'll keep it on, but Dimbleby's beginning the programme. Whilst not an especial fan of his, he's miles better than the tedious Huw Edwards.
Comments
If you don't make much effort with the voters, don't expect them to make much effort with you.
Download TOR and you can laugh in the general direction of content filters
Posters have been worried by your absence.
I don't think Rosberg did cheat. I'm not ardent in that view, I don't think it's clear-cut, but my own initial reaction was that it was a mistake.
Post-race piece is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/monaco-post-race-analysis.html
They always vote sensibly according to the recommendations of their political masters.
GUE/NGL 53
S&D 201
G/EFA 44
ALDE 59
EPP 217
ECR 42
EFD 40
oth 95
Anyway, I've cracked open a bottle of Spitfire - I'm sure Mr Farage would approve of my choice of ale!
Lay price not so good.
#EP2014 Exit poll (Lord Ashcroft): UKIP - 29% CON - 24% LAB - 21% LDEM - 8% [unconfirmed rumour]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_People's_Party
I'll have a charity bet with you for £20 that Labour won't come third. Even money but as you are a good sort I won't mind losing as I'm sure your charity will be a very worthy one.
I don't think Labour will poll third however so £20 to Amnesty or Shelter (you choose) is what you stand to lose.
What do you say?
Agree with that Morris - I only saw it once, not live, but it was an ex-f1 driver who made the decision.
@JamieMcBastard @MrHarryCole I am not releasing an exit poll
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Post-Euro-Election-Poll-Summary-May-2014.pdf
Someone very kindly reversed out the implicit results in the euros from the details given in here.
Strongvpn, you can be online and have full access in minutes and it costs pennies. I'm surprised you don't use a VPN just for the security.
A recount has been called at Southampton. #EP2014
I've been posting stuff on here about their desperate performance on economy/health/education for months. As has financier.
Maybe people have just had enough, even in the heartlands. They would never vote tory, but they have no love for labour.
I wonder if anyone would be so low as to use twitter to cause swings in the betting markets? Something similar worked for our financial sector.
He's not releasing one, but he conducted one, and you can work out the result (as previously shared) with a little calculation.
Marine Le Pen's Front National tops French Exit Poll - she calls for dissolution of l'assemblee nationale
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Adam Boulton @adamboultonSKY 13m
@scs1304 not in UK but @LordAshcroft is producing a fresh opinion poll at 10pm. Real results from council counts soon after 10pm
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Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 2m
@adamboultonSKY @scs1304 Adam. I am not releasing anything tonight.
UKIP 1.04 Most Votes
I find him one of the finest, most principled political writers about. And he is very good at explaining European politics.
If pro-EU politicians were as articulate and persuasive as Dan Hannan in making their case for the EU as Hannan is in presenting the anti-viewpoint, then perhaps the citizens of Europe would believe in the EU more.
Hannan makes a very, very salient point, and one I tend to find persuasive, and that is that pro-EU figures appear to want to quash debate and smear EU-reformers rather than positively espouse its good points.
Hence the growing tide of European people voting against the establishment.
Probably why he's a million miles away from power in the conservative party
Was too tempting based on my own prejudices concerning the UK electoral system :-)
I'm as giddy as a schoolboy. My wife is perplexed and nonchalant, but has left me in peace to "enjoy myself".
European Parliament website: election turnout estimated at 43.11%
Newham local elections, popular votes:
Lab 46,882 (60.01%)
Con 18,053 (23.11%)
CPA 4,127 (5.28%)
UKIP 3,299 (4.22%)
LD 2,737 (3.50%)
TUSC 1,887 (2.42%)
Green 562 (0.72%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Lab -0.80%
Con +4.54%
CPA -2.81%
UKIP +3.90%
LD -0.92%
TUSC +2.42%
Green -0.15%
Swing, Lab to Con: 2.67%
Small beer; disproportionate pleasure.
As a long evening begins, content yourselves with the knowledge this is the last time we'll all have to bother with these Ukip morons...
uhm
Edited extra bit: Mr. T, I agree entirely on UKIP first and Labour third, but would add it would also be quite amusing.
I guess even party obsevers are getting carried away if they are not expert.
If Lab and UKIP are neck and neck, I would guess neither of them should be high enough to outpoll Con and Plaid 2:1 unless one of them totally bombed. Or maybe I'm just tired
Incroyable...
Not sure if I'll keep it on, but Dimbleby's beginning the programme. Whilst not an especial fan of his, he's miles better than the tedious Huw Edwards.