Greens finish FIRST in Norwich City Council. 219 votes ahead of Labour.
I tipped the Greens to win Norwich South at 25/1 a couple of weeks ago, to widespread polite scepticism. You can still get them at that price with Paddy Power. It's a bargain.
I like this bet, am on for the max (@£3,84) P Power is allowing me.
That analysis runs counter to the fairy stories we are regularly peddled here at PB about the LD incumbency effect.
But it was not my analysis Jack, it was John Curtice's analysis today:
Curtice is usually a respected voice here at PB. Strange that you become so dismissive of him when he says something you do not agree with.
For the avoidance of any doubt, here are John Curtice's exact words today:
... it was difficult to find a silver lining to the cloud hanging over the Liberal Democrats. Once the local elections were the party’s forte; now they have become an annual embarrassment.
The party argued – not for the first time – that it was often performing better in places where it already has a sitting MP and thus has a strong base of local support. Indeed, there was the occasional bright spot – the party actually did better than in the 2010 general election in Bradford East and Birmingham Yardley. But there were plenty of disappointments too, not least the fact that the party came second to the Conservatives in Vince Cable’s Twickenham constituency and lost control of Ed Davey’s Kingston backyard.
It appears you are being more than just aimlessly stupid today.
Your first post on this matter made the clear implication that LibDem MP's would not enjoy any "fairy story incumbency" as noted often on PB and that Prof Curtice supported this view.
He did not and how could he as it is axiomatic that none of the elections related to constituency MP's. What Prof Curtice did note was that in many council seats there was little or no difference between those with LibDem MP's or not and that next year would see if actual LibDem MP stickability was in play or not.
I agree.
John Curtice: - "Consequently, on average Liberal Democrat support was down just as much – that is, by no less than 13 points – in Liberal Democrat MPs’ constituencies as elsewhere. In short, there was little consistent sign of the ability of Liberal Democrats’ personal popularity to stem the receding tide. And next year their own seats will be on the line."
Looks crystal clear to me Jack. You must be reading a different article.
I agree with Stuart here. Ed Davey is quite a respected MP. The Liberals lost 13% in Kingston. From 43% to 30%. Tories also fell: from 40% to 39%.
Of course, Labour and the Greens gained. UKIP too but they were not here in 2010.
I think we're all underestimating the other others. Last time around the English Democrats got almost 2%, Christian Voice got over 1% as did the Socialist Labour party and a couple of others (if memory serves).
CDU 35.9 SPD 27.2 Greens 10.8 Linke 7.5 AfD 6.8 FDP 3.1
there's no threshold anymore...so everybody will get seats..even parties at 1% as they use a big single constituency
When did they abolish the threshold? Very surprising as arguably the lack of a threshold was the Weimar electoral system's biggest fault. Does that apply to Bundestag elections as well?
Let's be honest, every non-UKIP vote is another nail in Farage's coffin. That there are dissenting voters in 'home turf' elections for him says it all.
Good to see that the Hibbies would rather have some derby games next season than play in the top flight. Hearts, Rangers and Hibs - should be the better division!
Should be excellent and may be some bargain season tickets from Rangers, half price season ticket fire sale would be nice.
Ben Kendall @benjkendall · 14 s We're told that the count in Chelmsford, and other parts of the east, has been completed but we must wait until 10pm for results
Yawn, blooyd Electoral Commission that wants to respect EU rules....and not ignoring them like all other countries do
I think we will have ukip top, with con second and lab squeezed to third, and at 15/1 with Ladbrokes would be happy. I think Lab will poll poorly outside London, if people voted kipper in rotherham, doncaster and sunderland in the locals then surely they did also in the Euros.
I think we're all underestimating the other others. Last time around the English Democrats got almost 2%, Christian Voice got over 1% as did the Socialist Labour party and a couple of others (if memory serves). My guess is:
Let's be honest, every non-UKIP vote is another nail in Farage's coffin. That there are dissenting voters in 'home turf' elections for him says it all.
Let's be honest, every non-UKIP vote is another nail in Farage's coffin. That there are dissenting voters in 'home turf' elections for him says it all.
So anything less than 100% is a failure?
To be honest, even 100% will have to be judged on turnout. If Farage can't get half the country to bother to vote for him now he's toast for 2015.
Once again it seem the UK is the only country playing by EU rules.
Has anybody actually published results ? In Germany, France people go by TV exit polls because they are very accurate. They don't wait for the actual count unless very very close.
Ben Kendall @benjkendall · 14 s We're told that the count in Chelmsford, and other parts of the east, has been completed but we must wait until 10pm for results
Yawn, blooyd Electoral Commission that wants to respect EU rules....and not ignoring them like all other countries do
If you knew the results you'd be able to make a mint right now on Betfair !
Once again it seem the UK is the only country playing by EU rules.
Surprise Surprise.
As the person who has probably viewed more local election results than anyone else, would you care to give an approximate view on what proportion of seats the parties contested?
Let's be honest, every non-UKIP vote is another nail in Farage's coffin. That there are dissenting voters in 'home turf' elections for him says it all.
So anything less than 100% is a failure?
To be honest, even 100% will have to be judged on turnout. If Farage can't get half the country to bother to vote for him now he's toast for 2015.
So, to be clear: If UKIP get less than 50% of all eligible voters, they have failed?
In France it's very accurate because it's a projection more than an exit poll. In the majority of towns they finish voting at 6 or 7PM . Counting start immediately there. So when the polls close in the ig cities at 8, the figures released by TV channels are based also on the real results from selected key polling stations from authorites finishing early
Once again it seem the UK is the only country playing by EU rules.
Has anybody actually published results ? In Germany, France people go by TV exit polls because they are very accurate. They don't wait for the actual count unless very very close.
Once again it seem the UK is the only country playing by EU rules.
Has anybody actually published results ? In Germany, France people go by TV exit polls because they are very accurate. They don't wait for the actual count unless very very close.
Why are Tories so frit ? They are your soul mates after all .
Surby
I based this benchmark on a quick poll of my extended family. Any member who had shown the basic symptoms of mental instability - and there are many of them - had voted Kipper.
In the circumstances, 35% seems low to me.
Nothing about being frit. It is more to do with recognising and counting the voice of those afflicted with mentally illness.
I thought the Left would understand and sympathise!
DF 23,1% 3 seats Social Democrats 20,5% 3 Liberals 17,2% 2 SF 11,9% 2 Conservatives 8,6% 1 People's Movement against the EU 8,2% 1 Social Liberals 7,0% 1 Liberal Alliance 3,4% 0
Let's be honest, every non-UKIP vote is another nail in Farage's coffin. That there are dissenting voters in 'home turf' elections for him says it all.
So anything less than 100% is a failure?
To be honest, even 100% will have to be judged on turnout. If Farage can't get half the country to bother to vote for him now he's toast for 2015.
So, to be clear: If UKIP get less than 50% of all eligible voters, they have failed?
I'm starting to wonder whether you don't realise I'm joking or I don't realise you're joking.
DF 23,1% 3 seats Social Democrats 20,5% 3 Liberals 17,2% 2 SF 11,9% 2 Conservatives 8,6% 1 People's Movement against the EU 8,2% 1 Social Liberals 7,0% 1 Liberal Alliance 3,4% 0
DF 23,1% 3 seats Social Democrats 20,5% 3 Liberals 17,2% 2 SF 11,9% 2 Conservatives 8,6% 1 People's Movement against the EU 8,2% 1 Social Liberals 7,0% 1 Liberal Alliance 3,4% 0
It looks like we will be the last country to have results again. No chance of an early night then. At least the North East count is being held in Sunderland, and the Mackems know how to organise a count.
DF 23,1% 3 seats Social Democrats 20,5% 3 Liberals 17,2% 2 SF 11,9% 2 Conservatives 8,6% 1 People's Movement against the EU 8,2% 1 Social Liberals 7,0% 1 Liberal Alliance 3,4% 0
Dr Palma de Majorca
Would it be possible for you to identify the loony parties in Europe with a suitable smiley mark when reporting results and predictions of voting share?
I know the main ones, but get lost when it comes to the lesser countries.
Why are Tories so frit ? They are your soul mates after all .
Surby
I based this benchmark on a quick poll of my extended family. Any member who had shown the basic symptoms of mental instability - and there are many of them - had voted Kipper.
In the circumstances, 35% seems low to me.
Nothing about being frit. It is more to do with recognising and counting the voice of those afflicted with mentally illness.
I thought the Left would understand and sympathise!
1 in 3 in your family. Shouldn't the family encourage some diversity in the gene pool ?
Of course, please be assured that as a lefty I take any reference to mental health with the utmost seriousness !
DF 23,1% 3 seats Social Democrats 20,5% 3 Liberals 17,2% 2 SF 11,9% 2 Conservatives 8,6% 1 People's Movement against the EU 8,2% 1 Social Liberals 7,0% 1 Liberal Alliance 3,4% 0
DF 23,1% 3 seats Social Democrats 20,5% 3 Liberals 17,2% 2 SF 11,9% 2 Conservatives 8,6% 1 People's Movement against the EU 8,2% 1 Social Liberals 7,0% 1 Liberal Alliance 3,4% 0
If Conservatives have a decent chance of 2nd, surely they can win. That or 210 is stoking value for them winning the Euros right now on Betfair. Surely to do that though they'd need to win East of England (Labour not necessarily) so thats probably why they are 210-1.
It looks like we will be the last country to have results again. No chance of an early night then. At least the North East count is being held in Sunderland, and the Mackems know how to organise a count.
Just occurred to me that both Miliband and Clegg could be in serious trouble after tonight — Miliband if Labour come third and Clegg if the LDs hardly win any seats.
Prediction - UKIP will perform on the high side - 32 or 33 or higher. Quite possibly higher than any the above polls. I have no evidence or specialist knowledge, and I am willing to be laughed at if wrong. If I'm right, it will be due to a shy-UKIP effect.
BBC Wales Politics @WalesPolitics 11m John Atkinson, campaign manager for UKIP in Wales says party will get 30% of the vote and is neck and neck with Labour ^NS.
Twitter AberdeenshireCouncil @Aberdeenshire 41s Turnout in @Aberdeenshire in the European Election is 32.63% - up from the 29.11% last time. Counting of ballot papers about to start.
BBC Wales Politics @WalesPolitics 11m John Atkinson, campaign manager for UKIP in Wales says party will get 30% of the vote and is neck and neck with Labour ^NS.
Twitter AberdeenshireCouncil @Aberdeenshire 41s Turnout in @Aberdeenshire in the European Election is 32.63% - up from the 29.11% last time. Counting of ballot papers about to start.
That's still a very disappointing turnout for Aberdeenshire I think.
What could possibly be the difference between poor kids in Appalachia and poor kids in south Chicago?
Dare I say votes? :-(
I assume Appalachia is more likely to vote GOP than Chicago and frankly they don't care about the kids, just about shoring up their support.
It's a sad situation when the explanation of just preferring your own partisans is the charitable explanation.
I live in faint hope that some of the UK Right cheering on the GOP will realise that even the Democrats are further to the right than any of the top 5 UK parties and that the current Republicans really are not worthy of support or admiration.
BBC Wales Politics @WalesPolitics 11m John Atkinson, campaign manager for UKIP in Wales says party will get 30% of the vote and is neck and neck with Labour ^NS.
That'd be pretty incredible.
I don't believe it — I've been going on about the possibility of UKIP coming first in Wales!
Twitter AberdeenshireCouncil @Aberdeenshire 41s Turnout in @Aberdeenshire in the European Election is 32.63% - up from the 29.11% last time. Counting of ballot papers about to start.
Why are Tories so frit ? They are your soul mates after all .
Surby
I based this benchmark on a quick poll of my extended family. Any member who had shown the basic symptoms of mental instability - and there are many of them - had voted Kipper.
In the circumstances, 35% seems low to me.
Nothing about being frit. It is more to do with recognising and counting the voice of those afflicted with mentally illness.
I thought the Left would understand and sympathise!
As someone who was institutionalised during their teenage year ( due to over exuberant abuse of LSD) for mental illness and voted conservative in 2010 I heartily concur that those portions of your family not voting UKIP are obviously insane...the fact you think it is the other way around only goes to highlight the depths of your insanity.
I recovered and am now a functioning member of society with no relapses in the last 30 or so years. I however fear you are far too set in your ways and the country will just have to suffer your nonsensical voting until you finally go to meet the maker herself
Surely guys and gals the lesson we learnt from the Locals the other night is there is really no point believing any rumours until we get the actual numbers. Look how many false claims were made about various parties (notably UKIP winning seats that weren't even counting until the following day) on Thursday night.
Why are Tories so frit ? They are your soul mates after all .
Surby
I based this benchmark on a quick poll of my extended family. Any member who had shown the basic symptoms of mental instability - and there are many of them - had voted Kipper.
In the circumstances, 35% seems low to me.
Nothing about being frit. It is more to do with recognising and counting the voice of those afflicted with mentally illness.
I thought the Left would understand and sympathise!
As someone who was institutionalised during their teenage year ( due to over exuberant abuse of LSD) for mental illness and voted conservative in 2010 I heartily concur that those portions of your family not voting UKIP are obviously insane...the fact you think it is the other way around only goes to highlight the depths of your insanity.
I recovered and am now a functioning member of society with no relapses in the last 30 or so years. I however fear you are far too set in your ways and the country will just have to suffer your nonsensical voting until you finally go to meet the maker herself
"the maker herself" ??- unless you are Harriet Harman I suggest that you may still be under the influence of LSD.
Too close to call in Wales - I'm calling it for UKIP. Grats to anyone who was on for a UKIP seat in Scotland too, can't see that one being a loser now.
Twitter AberdeenshireCouncil @Aberdeenshire 41s Turnout in @Aberdeenshire in the European Election is 32.63% - up from the 29.11% last time. Counting of ballot papers about to start.
So if (and I only say if) UKIP do win tonight, who do you think they would prefer to see come second?
Personally I think they would rather the Tories came second. It would go some way to defeating the idea that a UKIP vote would split the Right and so let Labour in whilst also putting a lot more pressure on Miliband to move towards a referendum pledge.
Why are Tories so frit ? They are your soul mates after all .
Surby
I based this benchmark on a quick poll of my extended family. Any member who had shown the basic symptoms of mental instability - and there are many of them - had voted Kipper.
In the circumstances, 35% seems low to me.
Nothing about being frit. It is more to do with recognising and counting the voice of those afflicted with mentally illness.
I thought the Left would understand and sympathise!
As someone who was institutionalised during their teenage year ( due to over exuberant abuse of LSD) for mental illness and voted conservative in 2010 I heartily concur that those portions of your family not voting UKIP are obviously insane...the fact you think it is the other way around only goes to highlight the depths of your insanity.
I recovered and am now a functioning member of society with no relapses in the last 30 or so years. I however fear you are far too set in your ways and the country will just have to suffer your nonsensical voting until you finally go to meet the maker herself
"the maker herself" ??- unless you are Harriet Harman I suggest that you may still be under the influence of LSD.
I am a pagan, my father was a pagan and his father before him a pagan etc...back into the mists of time it is sort of a family tradition
I happen to accredit much of the state of the universe to a girl god
When atheists say "look around how can you believe in god when you look at the state of the world" I can say god is a girl and I happen to know she has a fondness for Tequila
Twitter AberdeenshireCouncil @Aberdeenshire 41s Turnout in @Aberdeenshire in the European Election is 32.63% - up from the 29.11% last time. Counting of ballot papers about to start.
Is Aberdeenshire an SNP area ?
It also has an extremely large 'English' population as a result of the Oil industry.
So if (and I only say if) UKIP do win tonight, who do you think they would prefer to see come second?
Personally I think they would rather the Tories came second. It would go some way to defeating the idea that a UKIP vote would split the Right and so let Labour in whilst also putting a lot more pressure on Miliband to move towards a referendum pledge.
Thoughts?
I don't think UKIP will care too much who is second.
Surely guys and gals the lesson we learnt from the Locals the other night is there is really no point believing any rumours until we get the actual numbers. Look how many false claims were made about various parties (notably UKIP winning seats that weren't even counting until the following day) on Thursday night.
BBC Wales Politics @WalesPolitics 11m John Atkinson, campaign manager for UKIP in Wales says party will get 30% of the vote and is neck and neck with Labour ^NS.
That'd be pretty incredible.
I don't believe it — I've been going on about the possibility of UKIP coming first in Wales!
It'd be the 2nd time since 1918 Labour hasn't won a national election in Wales. (2009 Euro the other).
So if (and I only say if) UKIP do win tonight, who do you think they would prefer to see come second?
Personally I think they would rather the Tories came second. It would go some way to defeating the idea that a UKIP vote would split the Right and so let Labour in whilst also putting a lot more pressure on Miliband to move towards a referendum pledge.
Thoughts?
I don't think UKIP will care too much who is second.
If they were being grown up then they should. They should have their eyes on any and all permutations.
Comments
I like this bet, am on for the max (@£3,84) P Power is allowing me.
Front National 25.3
UMP 20.3
Socialists 14.7
UDi/Modem 10
Greens 8.7
Left Front 6.6
Of course, Labour and the Greens gained. UKIP too but they were not here in 2010.
Once again it seem the UK is the only country playing by EU rules.
Marine 23-25
UMP 18-21
Socialists 13
UDI/Modem 6-8
Greens 6
Left Front 3-5
We're told that the count in Chelmsford, and other parts of the east, has been completed but we must wait until 10pm for results
Yawn, blooyd Electoral Commission that wants to respect EU rules....and not ignoring them like all other countries do
I think we will have ukip top, with con second and lab squeezed to third, and at 15/1 with Ladbrokes would be happy. I think Lab will poll poorly outside London, if people voted kipper in rotherham, doncaster and sunderland in the locals then surely they did also in the Euros.
It is the rest who will be regarding the EP elections as a sort of Eurovision for comedians.
Some rumours that UKIP have won in the East of England region and Lib Dems have lost all their seats #EP2014
As the person who has probably viewed more local election results than anyone else, would you care to give an approximate view on what proportion of seats the parties contested?
I based this benchmark on a quick poll of my extended family. Any member who had shown the basic symptoms of mental instability - and there are many of them - had voted Kipper.
In the circumstances, 35% seems low to me.
Nothing about being frit. It is more to do with recognising and counting the voice of those afflicted with mentally illness.
I thought the Left would understand and sympathise!
DF 23,1% 3 seats
Social Democrats 20,5% 3
Liberals 17,2% 2
SF 11,9% 2
Conservatives 8,6% 1
People's Movement against the EU 8,2% 1
Social Liberals 7,0% 1
Liberal Alliance 3,4% 0
I at least sympathize, Interbreeding has obviously left terrible scars on your families genes.
At South Bucks #EP2014 count: #UKIP and Tory close for 1st, Lab 3rd, Green and Lib Dem close for 4th
Would it be possible for you to identify the loony parties in Europe with a suitable smiley mark when reporting results and predictions of voting share?
I know the main ones, but get lost when it comes to the lesser countries.
Of course, please be assured that as a lefty I take any reference to mental health with the utmost seriousness !
Overall Edinburgh turnout just announced as 41.6%. Better than expected but should be higher... #EP2014
SF=Socialists (left of Social Democrats)
Yes, I'm back people. It apparently doesn't take me soo long to recover from an F1 win.
but yes, London must wait Tower Hamlets....so not sure if they will ever finish.
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/05/house-gop-agriculture-budget-white-house-106831.html
What could possibly be the difference between poor kids in Appalachia and poor kids in south Chicago?
Lab 28,871 (52.31%)
UKIP 14,847 (26.90%)
Con 5,742 (10.40%)
LD 1,942 (3.52%)
Green 1,293 (2.34%)
BNP 915 (1.66%)
Changes since 2010 locals:
Lab +5.14%
UKIP +23.48%
Con -5.71%
LD -7.57%
Green +2.09%
BNP -16.17%
You guys can log in here from 20:00. Just a little plug for my old uni.
I assume Appalachia is more likely to vote GOP than Chicago and frankly they don't care about the kids, just about shoring up their support.
Twitter
Neil Lovatt @neiledwardlovat 6m
Scotland now has more Tories MPs than Edinburgh clubs in the SPL #indyref
I have no evidence or specialist knowledge, and I am willing to be laughed at if wrong.
If I'm right, it will be due to a shy-UKIP effect.
John Atkinson, campaign manager for UKIP in Wales says party will get 30% of the vote and is neck and neck with Labour ^NS.
That'd be pretty incredible.
AberdeenshireCouncil @Aberdeenshire 41s
Turnout in @Aberdeenshire in the European Election is 32.63% - up from the 29.11% last time. Counting of ballot papers about to start.
I recovered and am now a functioning member of society with no relapses in the last 30 or so years. I however fear you are far too set in your ways and the country will just have to suffer your nonsensical voting until you finally go to meet the maker herself
'Euro turnout
Edinburgh was 6% higher than 2009
South Lanarkshire turnout 30.1% it was 24.6% in 2009'
Wonder if the referendum has increased voter engagement?
UKIP 32
CON 24
LAB 22
GRN 10
LD 5
AIFE 2
Once the area break-downs are out I think we will see a correlation between the Euro results and those for the AV referendum:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_Alternative_Vote_referendum,_2011
with UKIP support being lowest in areas that are most pro AV ie left wing inner London, Oxford, Cambridge, Edinburgh, Norwich, Brighton etc .
Personally I think they would rather the Tories came second. It would go some way to defeating the idea that a UKIP vote would split the Right and so let Labour in whilst also putting a lot more pressure on Miliband to move towards a referendum pledge.
Thoughts?
I happen to accredit much of the state of the universe to a girl god
When atheists say "look around how can you believe in god when you look at the state of the world" I can say god is a girl and I happen to know she has a fondness for Tequila
I voted Tory anyway maybe it'll be close.
Highest turn out in Wales was in Plaid Cymru's heartlands also Tory heartland of Pembrokehire has high turnout
Lowest was Labour valley heartlands
2009 in Leeds was Con 23.2% Lab 21.3 UKIP 15.9