Starmer seems to have fixated on simply getting Labour into government. Big tick, job done. But what is the point of power if you don't know what to do with it?
Starmer has performed pretty much to my low expectations. There is not a fantastic amount of policy difference between his administration and the tories that preceded it. A WFA there, an IHT here. Who gives a fuck? It's not exactly Father Lenin's "State and Revolution".
However, one thing he undeniably is, is a grinder. Since the "Peak Boris" of the Hartlepool by-election (I can't remember who called it as Peak Boris on here, but chapeau) he relentlessly dragged the Labour, who are not always the most biddable congregation, into power with a handsome majority. Maybe he'll apply the same industrious obduracy to the business of government.
I can see that, but I can also see a counter argument: he did not relentlessly drag Labour into power. Instead, he just sat around whilst the Conservatives imploded.
A question is how much the remarkably low Labour share got at the GE could have been increased. What should worry Labour is the idea that Starmer and his team did work relentlessly, and that 34% is pretty much their max potential vote.
The counter counter argument is that 34% is not that bad in modern European legislative elections, exceeding the vote share any other party in Western Europe apart from the stubbornly duopolistic Maltese government and opposition.
(As you go east, there are sloghtly more examples, for example in Poland and Greece).
But, by that score, I'd note 24% is not as apocalyptic for the Tories as it would have been 25 years ago.
It's not just a quarter of a century ago though. In the week before the 2024 election was called, Labour polled 43-48% (and the Tories 20-27%). Pre-partygate, both main parties were trading in the high-thirties. A year earlier, they were tied at around 40.
Now, we can say that some of that was an unusually large two-party share (as was the 2019 election), and that ever since 2012 the old three-party (plus nationalists in Wales / Scotland) had broken down and vote share become more dispersed, and that's true. 2019, despite the very concentrated results, saw volatility across the year as a whole that was unprecedented since at least 1981/2 and probably since 1931 or even 1918-24.
Anyway, 24% is borderline apocalyptic for both main parties. The Tories ending on their lowest ever number of MPs, in more than 200 years as a party, tells its own story - but it was perilously close to being an awful lot worse still.
It’s a shame it wasn’t, really - including for them.
The public wanted to teach the Tories a lesson, yet they don’t seem to have learned anything.
It's something that is one of the banes of education. Just because a teacher plans a lesson to teach X, it's awfully hard to stop a class learning Y, which may have nothing to do with the intial intention and may not even be correct.
So the Conservatives do seem to have learned a lesson from July 4- namely that their actions need to be more right-wing. Some voters undoubtedly wanted to teach that lesson. How many remains to be seen.
This site is missing a good Reform voter to balance the traditional mainstream views. I am not a Reform voter but have been trying to understand their viewpoint.
One of the biggest mistakes that the Tories are making is that they are assuming that the Reform voters will come back to them if Labour are useless and they say some stuff about ECHR etc. The hatred of the Tory party from many Reform voters is visceral and unlikely to shift anytime soon. The Tories let in the millions, raised taxes like crazy, put in the laws for NCHIs and jailed Tommy.
There is a thought that Farage fully controls Reform this is clearly not the case. The right wing have a multitude of powerful figures and the USA influence as well as the European influence cannot be underestimated. It is ironic that while the Tory party has almost no links to Europe the Reform party has many followers in countries such as France, Holland and Germany. The Tory party is essentially a domestic rural party. The Reform party is much more international.
I disagree that you can effectively run a country when only 25% of the population support you. I stay in Scotland where Labour has much less ability to influence events. But even in England it is hard to push through changes in the legal system when say the police report to a local commissioner who is politically opposed to you. Non crime hate incidents are very concentrated on regions with strong local Labour control. In Scotland they dont exist. It will be the same in other milestones such as the NHS and house building.
Next year will be relatively quiet on elections with a couple of key mayor battles in England but 2026 will be a massive election year. If Labour gets wiped out in 2026 then Starmer is probably gone. He has 18 months to get the economy growing.
'One of the biggest mistakes that the Tories are making is that they are assuming that the Reform voters will come back to them if Labour are useless and they say some stuff about ECHR etc. The hatred of the Tory party from many Reform voters is visceral and unlikely to shift anytime soon. '
Even if you are right the Tories don't necessarily need them too. On the latest FindOutNow poll Reform are starting to eat into Labour white working class voters having already eaten into Tory white working class voters and with the Tories holding and slightly increasing their more middle class 2024 vote (while Labour also leaks some progressive middle class votes to the Greens) they are now ahead on 26% to 24% for Reform and 23% for Labour.
So under FPTP that would still give Kemi most seats, followed by Labour albeit with Farage close to holding the balance of power.
On your other point the Online Safety Act applies in Scotland too and the Criminal Justice and Licensing Act has similar terms to the Malicious Communications Act
If there's as much error as there was from the polls in the last election, any of the three (Reform, Labour, Conservatives) could have the most seats. Reform could end up behind the LDs or ahead of Labour, as the various electoral biases may well move. Yougov MRP will probably be the best guide. Obviously Rfm on the up and Labour moving downward are the big trends.
Russian-backed troops fleeing and leaving a lot of equipment behind.
And reports that there is rebellion in ?Daraa? in the very south, near the Jordanian border. (allegedly the rebels there previously did a deal with Assad whereby they would lay down their weapons).
I see that @HYUFD ’s usual dismissive assertions that Assad and the Russians would crush the rebels within days was utter crap
I didn't say within days but certainly they must be contained by Assad's forces supported by Russian airstrikes and soon Russian mercenaries and elite Hezbollah forces are also starting to cross the border, otherwise the Al Qaeda linked rebels will threaten even Damascus and make Syria a base for global jihadism.
The Turkish backed rebels are also advancing on Kurdish positions in the NE of Syria and we must hope the Kurds hold them off too
The Russian helicopters are being used to evacuate the Russian top brass out of Homs, as at least the northern portion of the city has already fallen. Russian planes dropped a bridge north of Homs, but it doesn't seem to have stopped the rebels drive southwards.
The Russians have taken their naval vessels out of Tarsus. A main airbase north of there now looks to be unsustainable. Russia didn't have a balanced force in Syria; it was an air force and a naval base. They didn't have enough ground troops to support either, having relied on Assad's troops to fulfil that function.
Oops.
Israel may have to go in to Syria to create a buffer zone.
About the only people enjoying the current outcome are the rebels - and Turkey.
“My team and I are staying on top of and taking seriously the situation involving unknown drones flying over Morris, Somerset, and Hunterdon Counties. Yesterday, I participated in a bipartisan call with Secretary Mayorkas, Governor Murphy, and key government and law enforcement officials to address this issue.
I will continue to push federal authorities to work swiftly to give the public a full understanding of the situation and work toward a resolution.”
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
F1: don't have a boost available, but unboosted Leclerc can be backed at 5 for a podium on Ladbrokes. If you laid him at 4.7, that's a smidgen of green either way (more so if you have a boost).
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
No, there is clear evidence that certain elections have been skewed by Putin's interference. If he minded his own business and wannabe totalitarians won anyway I don't believe we have an argument against them.
Surely, surely now it's time for European countries to ban Tiktok. It's a complete wasteland of Russian and Chinese propaganda bots being fired into people's feeds by the algorithm. Time to get this Chinese propaganda tool out of people's lives.
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
No, there is clear evidence that certain elections have been skewed by Putin's interference. If he minded his own business and wannabe totalitarians won anyway I don't believe we have an argument against them.
Evidence of Russia trying to manipulate social media is not evidence that anyone's vote has been swung by it, and they do it on both sides, for example funding anti-fracking groups.
Starmer seems to have fixated on simply getting Labour into government. Big tick, job done. But what is the point of power if you don't know what to do with it?
Starmer has performed pretty much to my low expectations. There is not a fantastic amount of policy difference between his administration and the tories that preceded it. A WFA there, an IHT here. Who gives a fuck? It's not exactly Father Lenin's "State and Revolution".
However, one thing he undeniably is, is a grinder. Since the "Peak Boris" of the Hartlepool by-election (I can't remember who called it as Peak Boris on here, but chapeau) he relentlessly dragged the Labour, who are not always the most biddable congregation, into power with a handsome majority. Maybe he'll apply the same industrious obduracy to the business of government.
I can see that, but I can also see a counter argument: he did not relentlessly drag Labour into power. Instead, he just sat around whilst the Conservatives imploded.
A question is how much the remarkably low Labour share got at the GE could have been increased. What should worry Labour is the idea that Starmer and his team did work relentlessly, and that 34% is pretty much their max potential vote.
The counter counter argument is that 34% is not that bad in modern European legislative elections, exceeding the vote share any other party in Western Europe apart from the stubbornly duopolistic Maltese government and opposition.
(As you go east, there are sloghtly more examples, for example in Poland and Greece).
But, by that score, I'd note 24% is not as apocalyptic for the Tories as it would have been 25 years ago.
It's not just a quarter of a century ago though. In the week before the 2024 election was called, Labour polled 43-48% (and the Tories 20-27%). Pre-partygate, both main parties were trading in the high-thirties. A year earlier, they were tied at around 40.
Now, we can say that some of that was an unusually large two-party share (as was the 2019 election), and that ever since 2012 the old three-party (plus nationalists in Wales / Scotland) had broken down and vote share become more dispersed, and that's true. 2019, despite the very concentrated results, saw volatility across the year as a whole that was unprecedented since at least 1981/2 and probably since 1931 or even 1918-24.
Anyway, 24% is borderline apocalyptic for both main parties. The Tories ending on their lowest ever number of MPs, in more than 200 years as a party, tells its own story - but it was perilously close to being an awful lot worse still.
It’s a shame it wasn’t, really - including for them.
The public wanted to teach the Tories a lesson, yet they don’t seem to have learned anything.
It's something that is one of the banes of education. Just because a teacher plans a lesson to teach X, it's awfully hard to stop a class learning Y, which may have nothing to do with the intial intention and may not even be correct.
So the Conservatives do seem to have learned a lesson from July 4- namely that their actions need to be more right-wing. Some voters undoubtedly wanted to teach that lesson. How many remains to be seen.
This site is missing a good Reform voter to balance the traditional mainstream views. I am not a Reform voter but have been trying to understand their viewpoint.
One of the biggest mistakes that the Tories are making is that they are assuming that the Reform voters will come back to them if Labour are useless and they say some stuff about ECHR etc. The hatred of the Tory party from many Reform voters is visceral and unlikely to shift anytime soon. The Tories let in the millions, raised taxes like crazy, put in the laws for NCHIs and jailed Tommy.
There is a thought that Farage fully controls Reform this is clearly not the case. The right wing have a multitude of powerful figures and the USA influence as well as the European influence cannot be underestimated. It is ironic that while the Tory party has almost no links to Europe the Reform party has many followers in countries such as France, Holland and Germany. The Tory party is essentially a domestic rural party. The Reform party is much more international.
I disagree that you can effectively run a country when only 25% of the population support you. I stay in Scotland where Labour has much less ability to influence events. But even in England it is hard to push through changes in the legal system when say the police report to a local commissioner who is politically opposed to you. Non crime hate incidents are very concentrated on regions with strong local Labour control. In Scotland they dont exist. It will be the same in other milestones such as the NHS and house building.
Next year will be relatively quiet on elections with a couple of key mayor battles in England but 2026 will be a massive election year. If Labour gets wiped out in 2026 then Starmer is probably gone. He has 18 months to get the economy growing.
'One of the biggest mistakes that the Tories are making is that they are assuming that the Reform voters will come back to them if Labour are useless and they say some stuff about ECHR etc. The hatred of the Tory party from many Reform voters is visceral and unlikely to shift anytime soon. '
Even if you are right the Tories don't necessarily need them too. On the latest FindOutNow poll Reform are starting to eat into Labour white working class voters having already eaten into Tory white working class voters and with the Tories holding and slightly increasing their more middle class 2024 vote (while Labour also leaks some progressive middle class votes to the Greens) they are now ahead on 26% to 24% for Reform and 23% for Labour.
So under FPTP that would still give Kemi most seats, followed by Labour albeit with Farage close to holding the balance of power.
On your other point the Online Safety Act applies in Scotland too and the Criminal Justice and Licensing Act has similar terms to the Malicious Communications Act
If there's as much error as there was from the polls in the last election, any of the three (Reform, Labour, Conservatives) could have the most seats. Reform could end up behind the LDs or ahead of Labour, as the various electoral biases may well move. Yougov MRP will probably be the best guide. Obviously Rfm on the up and Labour moving downward are the big trends.
Reform would need to get about 30% to win most seats
Russian-backed troops fleeing and leaving a lot of equipment behind.
And reports that there is rebellion in ?Daraa? in the very south, near the Jordanian border. (allegedly the rebels there previously did a deal with Assad whereby they would lay down their weapons).
I see that @HYUFD ’s usual dismissive assertions that Assad and the Russians would crush the rebels within days was utter crap
I didn't say within days but certainly they must be contained by Assad's forces supported by Russian airstrikes and soon Russian mercenaries and elite Hezbollah forces are also starting to cross the border, otherwise the Al Qaeda linked rebels will threaten even Damascus and make Syria a base for global jihadism.
The Turkish backed rebels are also advancing on Kurdish positions in the NE of Syria and we must hope the Kurds hold them off too
The Russian helicopters are being used to evacuate the Russian top brass out of Homs, as at least the northern portion of the city has already fallen. Russian planes dropped a bridge north of Homs, but it doesn't seem to have stopped the rebels drive southwards.
The Russians have taken their naval vessels out of Tarsus. A main airbase north of there now looks to be unsustainable. Russia didn't have a balanced force in Syria; it was an air force and a naval base. They didn't have enough ground troops to support either, having relied on Assad's troops to fulfil that function.
Oops.
Israel may have to go in to Syria to create a buffer zone.
About the only people enjoying the current outcome are the rebels - and Turkey.
Putin is now starting to send mercenaries to support Assad and Hezbollah are sending fighters too.
Turkey may also be starting to send the rebels against the Kurds but Erdogan should be wary, if the jihadi militants took control of Damascus and removed Assad they could soon start to spread into Turkey too and even threaten to remove him as well
Ruth Deyermond @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social · 3m Not sure any state in the world has a foreign policy or diplomatic infrastructure that can cope with what’s going on at the moment.
Ruth Deyermond @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social · 3m Even states that aren’t in major crisis, such as the UK, just aren’t set up for dealing with this level of international chaos. It’s unprecedented in the modern era.
Surely, surely now it's time for European countries to ban Tiktok. It's a complete wasteland of Russian and Chinese propaganda bots being fired into people's feeds by the algorithm. Time to get this Chinese propaganda tool out of people's lives.
I'm not on TikTok but Facebook and X seem barely better. (FB isn't quite so overt and is still useful for groups but its algorithm is way too aggressive - click or reply to one thing and you get a load more of the same, which if you're mildly conspiracy-theory-minded is going to deluge you with the stuff and turn you full-on foil hat)
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
No, there is clear evidence that certain elections have been skewed by Putin's interference. If he minded his own business and wannabe totalitarians won anyway I don't believe we have an argument against them.
Evidence of Russia trying to manipulate social media is not evidence that anyone's vote has been swung by it, and they do it on both sides, for example funding anti-fracking groups.
Foreign interference is foreign interference.
Elon Musk bunging Farage £80m may not be technically illegal but it breaches the spirit of free and fair elections free from foreign actor interference. Russia funding anti-fracking groups is equally undesirable. I just don't get the shoulder shrug when Putin steals an election for an extremist cause from the left or the right, and Brexit.
Surely, surely now it's time for European countries to ban Tiktok. It's a complete wasteland of Russian and Chinese propaganda bots being fired into people's feeds by the algorithm. Time to get this Chinese propaganda tool out of people's lives.
I'm not on TikTok but Facebook and X seem barely better. (FB isn't quite so overt and is still useful for groups but its algorithm is way too aggressive - click or reply to one thing and you get a load more of the same, which if you're mildly conspiracy-theory-minded is going to deluge you with the stuff and turn you full-on foil hat)
Facebook and Instagram you can ignore politics completely if you want and just post and follow family and holiday, gym and eating out posts. Then you don't get the political algorithm posts either
Surely, surely now it's time for European countries to ban Tiktok. It's a complete wasteland of Russian and Chinese propaganda bots being fired into people's feeds by the algorithm. Time to get this Chinese propaganda tool out of people's lives.
I'm not on TikTok but Facebook and X seem barely better. (FB isn't quite so overt and is still useful for groups but its algorithm is way too aggressive - click or reply to one thing and you get a load more of the same, which if you're mildly conspiracy-theory-minded is going to deluge you with the stuff and turn you full-on foil hat)
Yeah neither of those are brilliant either but Tiktok is cancer. It's genuinely awful.
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
That's a disgraceful thing to say. Vladimir Putin is multi-Billionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster.
He had to throw a lot of people out of windows to get to that level of wealth. This perpetual downer on hardworking tyrants is talking down the innovation and productivity they represent.
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
No, there is clear evidence that certain elections have been skewed by Putin's interference. If he minded his own business and wannabe totalitarians won anyway I don't believe we have an argument against them.
Evidence of Russia trying to manipulate social media is not evidence that anyone's vote has been swung by it, and they do it on both sides, for example funding anti-fracking groups.
Foreign interference is foreign interference.
Elon Musk bunging Farage £80m may not be technically illegal but it breaches the spirit of free and fair elections free from foreign actor interference. Russia funding anti-fracking groups is equally undesirable. I just don't get the shoulder shrug when Putin steals an election for an extremist cause from the left or the right, and Brexit.
I don't get how you can participate in a forum on electoral politics and imagine that it's easy to steal an election with a few social media posts. Changing people's votes is very hard and there is no evidence that Putin is better at it than Lynton Crosby or Peter Mandelson.
Russian-backed troops fleeing and leaving a lot of equipment behind.
And reports that there is rebellion in ?Daraa? in the very south, near the Jordanian border. (allegedly the rebels there previously did a deal with Assad whereby they would lay down their weapons).
I see that @HYUFD ’s usual dismissive assertions that Assad and the Russians would crush the rebels within days was utter crap
I didn't say within days but certainly they must be contained by Assad's forces supported by Russian airstrikes and soon Russian mercenaries and elite Hezbollah forces are also starting to cross the border, otherwise the Al Qaeda linked rebels will threaten even Damascus and make Syria a base for global jihadism.
The Turkish backed rebels are also advancing on Kurdish positions in the NE of Syria and we must hope the Kurds hold them off too
The Russian helicopters are being used to evacuate the Russian top brass out of Homs, as at least the northern portion of the city has already fallen. Russian planes dropped a bridge north of Homs, but it doesn't seem to have stopped the rebels drive southwards.
The Russians have taken their naval vessels out of Tarsus. A main airbase north of there now looks to be unsustainable. Russia didn't have a balanced force in Syria; it was an air force and a naval base. They didn't have enough ground troops to support either, having relied on Assad's troops to fulfil that function.
Oops.
Israel may have to go in to Syria to create a buffer zone.
About the only people enjoying the current outcome are the rebels - and Turkey.
Putin is now starting to send mercenaries to support Assad and Hezbollah are sending fighters too.
Turkey may also be starting to send the rebels against the Kurds but Erdogan should be wary, if the jihadi militants took control of Damascus and removed Assad they could soon start to spread into Turkey too and even threaten to remove him as well
Remove Erdogan? You don't know Turkey. His has complete control over the military and they are actually competent and very, very well armed.
Ruth Deyermond @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social · 3m Not sure any state in the world has a foreign policy or diplomatic infrastructure that can cope with what’s going on at the moment.
Ruth Deyermond @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social · 3m Even states that aren’t in major crisis, such as the UK, just aren’t set up for dealing with this level of international chaos. It’s unprecedented in the modern era.
Surely, surely now it's time for European countries to ban Tiktok. It's a complete wasteland of Russian and Chinese propaganda bots being fired into people's feeds by the algorithm. Time to get this Chinese propaganda tool out of people's lives.
I'm not on TikTok but Facebook and X seem barely better. (FB isn't quite so overt and is still useful for groups but its algorithm is way too aggressive - click or reply to one thing and you get a load more of the same, which if you're mildly conspiracy-theory-minded is going to deluge you with the stuff and turn you full-on foil hat)
Yeah neither of those are brilliant either but Tiktok is cancer. It's genuinely awful.
I would have sympathy with banning Tiktok, but unless you ban all social media networks from offering a similar service, its most pernicious features will still be present, albeit without the China concerns, and kids will just migrate.
“My team and I are staying on top of and taking seriously the situation involving unknown drones flying over Morris, Somerset, and Hunterdon Counties. Yesterday, I participated in a bipartisan call with Secretary Mayorkas, Governor Murphy, and key government and law enforcement officials to address this issue.
I will continue to push federal authorities to work swiftly to give the public a full understanding of the situation and work toward a resolution.”
Apparently an entire squadron of USAF jets had to be relocated due to the drones
So, no, I don’t think is a few silly security guys getting freaked by a balloon, like Gatwick
There really are drones but beyond that, the Congressman says nothing. There are drones; someone should look into it.
The problems with drones are even if it is just kids, they can endanger aircraft (which is why we have exclusion areas round airports) and arguably national security by photographing air bases (although the KGB probably knows where USAF bases are). They can also be used to carry contraband into prisons, ferry drugs, and even bombs as we have seen in Ukraine and Gaza.
But it's probably just kids and a self-important Congressman demanding someone else investigates.
Russian-backed troops fleeing and leaving a lot of equipment behind.
And reports that there is rebellion in ?Daraa? in the very south, near the Jordanian border. (allegedly the rebels there previously did a deal with Assad whereby they would lay down their weapons).
I see that @HYUFD ’s usual dismissive assertions that Assad and the Russians would crush the rebels within days was utter crap
I didn't say within days but certainly they must be contained by Assad's forces supported by Russian airstrikes and soon Russian mercenaries and elite Hezbollah forces are also starting to cross the border, otherwise the Al Qaeda linked rebels will threaten even Damascus and make Syria a base for global jihadism.
The Turkish backed rebels are also advancing on Kurdish positions in the NE of Syria and we must hope the Kurds hold them off too
The Russian helicopters are being used to evacuate the Russian top brass out of Homs, as at least the northern portion of the city has already fallen. Russian planes dropped a bridge north of Homs, but it doesn't seem to have stopped the rebels drive southwards.
The Russians have taken their naval vessels out of Tarsus. A main airbase north of there now looks to be unsustainable. Russia didn't have a balanced force in Syria; it was an air force and a naval base. They didn't have enough ground troops to support either, having relied on Assad's troops to fulfil that function.
Oops.
Israel may have to go in to Syria to create a buffer zone.
About the only people enjoying the current outcome are the rebels - and Turkey.
Putin is now starting to send mercenaries to support Assad and Hezbollah are sending fighters too.
Turkey may also be starting to send the rebels against the Kurds but Erdogan should be wary, if the jihadi militants took control of Damascus and removed Assad they could soon start to spread into Turkey too and even threaten to remove him as well
They'd find it a bit harder in Turkey. The coup attempt in 2016 was inept and poor, and actually helped cement Erdogan in place. Also, although Turkey has been remarkably welcoming to the three million Syrian refugees they have been helping for over a decade, public acceptance is wearing thin, with some violence directed against them earlier this year.
What would happen is more PKK-style terrorism, albeit with other groups.
Russian-backed troops fleeing and leaving a lot of equipment behind.
And reports that there is rebellion in ?Daraa? in the very south, near the Jordanian border. (allegedly the rebels there previously did a deal with Assad whereby they would lay down their weapons).
I see that @HYUFD ’s usual dismissive assertions that Assad and the Russians would crush the rebels within days was utter crap
I didn't say within days but certainly they must be contained by Assad's forces supported by Russian airstrikes and soon Russian mercenaries and elite Hezbollah forces are also starting to cross the border, otherwise the Al Qaeda linked rebels will threaten even Damascus and make Syria a base for global jihadism.
The Turkish backed rebels are also advancing on Kurdish positions in the NE of Syria and we must hope the Kurds hold them off too
The Russian helicopters are being used to evacuate the Russian top brass out of Homs, as at least the northern portion of the city has already fallen. Russian planes dropped a bridge north of Homs, but it doesn't seem to have stopped the rebels drive southwards.
The Russians have taken their naval vessels out of Tarsus. A main airbase north of there now looks to be unsustainable. Russia didn't have a balanced force in Syria; it was an air force and a naval base. They didn't have enough ground troops to support either, having relied on Assad's troops to fulfil that function.
Oops.
Israel may have to go in to Syria to create a buffer zone.
About the only people enjoying the current outcome are the rebels - and Turkey.
Putin is now starting to send mercenaries to support Assad and Hezbollah are sending fighters too.
Turkey may also be starting to send the rebels against the Kurds but Erdogan should be wary, if the jihadi militants took control of Damascus and removed Assad they could soon start to spread into Turkey too and even threaten to remove him as well
Remove Erdogan? You don't know Turkey. His has complete control over the military and they are actually competent and very, very well armed.
Turkey is actually very good at military organisation and bureaucracy, partly inherited from millennia of the Greek bureaucratic class.
In any case of Damascus falling, you'd expect Erdoğan to be stronger.
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
Some people are on the side of Putin, however. There are those who keep repeating Putin's propaganda.
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
Some people are on the side of Putin, however. There are those who keep repeating Putin's propaganda.
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
Some people are on the side of Putin, however. There are those who keep repeating Putin's propaganda.
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has told the BBC the gas deals she made with Russia were intended to help German firms and kept the peace with Moscow.
She also insisted the war with Ukraine would have started earlier if she hadn’t blocked Kyiv’s entry into Nato in 2008.
'The Prince of Wales will join Donald Trump and other world leaders in Paris tomorrow to attend the ceremony marking the re-opening of the Notre-Dame Cathedral. Prince William is travelling at the request of the UK Government to represent the country.' https://x.com/CameronDLWalker/status/1865004782701752405
'The Prince of Wales will join Donald Trump and other world leaders in Paris tomorrow to attend the ceremony marking the re-opening of the Notre-Dame Cathedral. Prince William is travelling at the request of the UK Government to represent the country.' https://x.com/CameronDLWalker/status/1865004782701752405
Donald Trump is not a world leader. Not yet anyway. Talk about lame duck presidents.
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
No, there is clear evidence that certain elections have been skewed by Putin's interference. If he minded his own business and wannabe totalitarians won anyway I don't believe we have an argument against them.
Evidence of Russia trying to manipulate social media is not evidence that anyone's vote has been swung by it, and they do it on both sides, for example funding anti-fracking groups.
Foreign interference is foreign interference.
Elon Musk bunging Farage £80m may not be technically illegal but it breaches the spirit of free and fair elections free from foreign actor interference. Russia funding anti-fracking groups is equally undesirable. I just don't get the shoulder shrug when Putin steals an election for an extremist cause from the left or the right, and Brexit.
Elon Musk will not bung Farage or Reform any significant amount. As I understand it: (a) none of his UK companies have business scale sufficient to make a meaningful donation within election law, and (b) he is not a UK citizen so cannot donate personally. Please note that even though he could possibly become a UK citizen (he had a UK grandmother) he would not do so as he would not then be able to work in/for SpaceX and would probably face much higher tax bills. What he can do is amplify Farage and Reform on X - or at least not mute them as other social networks do. That will help Farage enormously..
“My team and I are staying on top of and taking seriously the situation involving unknown drones flying over Morris, Somerset, and Hunterdon Counties. Yesterday, I participated in a bipartisan call with Secretary Mayorkas, Governor Murphy, and key government and law enforcement officials to address this issue.
I will continue to push federal authorities to work swiftly to give the public a full understanding of the situation and work toward a resolution.”
Apparently an entire squadron of USAF jets had to be relocated due to the drones
So, no, I don’t think is a few silly security guys getting freaked by a balloon, like Gatwick
There really are drones but beyond that, the Congressman says nothing. There are drones; someone should look into it.
The problems with drones are even if it is just kids, they can endanger aircraft (which is why we have exclusion areas round airports) and arguably national security by photographing air bases (although the KGB probably knows where USAF bases are). They can also be used to carry contraband into prisons, ferry drugs, and even bombs as we have seen in Ukraine and Gaza.
But it's probably just kids and a self-important Congressman demanding someone else investigates.
Just kids in both the U.S. and UK cases, which started at slightly different times, around the last month or so ? I I personally would doubt that, and if it is Russia or China, there could be national security reasons invoked for l the low visibility of coverage in most of the media.
The weather warnings in place for this afternoon appear significantly apocalyptic, yet right now there's a hazy-blue sky, just gentle waves out at sea and not a gust of wind. Yet forty minutes to go before the warnings start to kick in....
Outdoor furniture was secured before the last named storm. A Red Warning is worth paying attention to, though. We have a lot of trees around us. They have lost all their leaves in the recent big blows, but any weakened main branches might be on their way down. Especially true of the ash affected by die-back, of which there is now sadly a vast amount here in Devon where one in six trees was ash.
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
Some people are on the side of Putin, however. There are those who keep repeating Putin's propaganda.
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has told the BBC the gas deals she made with Russia were intended to help German firms and kept the peace with Moscow.
She also insisted the war with Ukraine would have started earlier if she hadn’t blocked Kyiv’s entry into Nato in 2008.
Russian-backed troops fleeing and leaving a lot of equipment behind.
And reports that there is rebellion in ?Daraa? in the very south, near the Jordanian border. (allegedly the rebels there previously did a deal with Assad whereby they would lay down their weapons).
I see that @HYUFD ’s usual dismissive assertions that Assad and the Russians would crush the rebels within days was utter crap
I didn't say within days but certainly they must be contained by Assad's forces supported by Russian airstrikes and soon Russian mercenaries and elite Hezbollah forces are also starting to cross the border, otherwise the Al Qaeda linked rebels will threaten even Damascus and make Syria a base for global jihadism.
The Turkish backed rebels are also advancing on Kurdish positions in the NE of Syria and we must hope the Kurds hold them off too
The Russian helicopters are being used to evacuate the Russian top brass out of Homs, as at least the northern portion of the city has already fallen. Russian planes dropped a bridge north of Homs, but it doesn't seem to have stopped the rebels drive southwards.
The Russians have taken their naval vessels out of Tarsus. A main airbase north of there now looks to be unsustainable. Russia didn't have a balanced force in Syria; it was an air force and a naval base. They didn't have enough ground troops to support either, having relied on Assad's troops to fulfil that function.
Oops.
Israel may have to go in to Syria to create a buffer zone.
About the only people enjoying the current outcome are the rebels - and Turkey.
Putin is now starting to send mercenaries to support Assad and Hezbollah are sending fighters too.
Turkey may also be starting to send the rebels against the Kurds but Erdogan should be wary, if the jihadi militants took control of Damascus and removed Assad they could soon start to spread into Turkey too and even threaten to remove him as well
Remove Erdogan? You don't know Turkey. His has complete control over the military and they are actually competent and very, very well armed.
Same still going at Lakenheath, where the U.S. is about to station. Nuclear weapons for the first time in 15 years.
According to the unconfirmed reoort above, they can still operate in high winds.
Get back to us when there is one shot down, or seen in daylight and properly photographed.
Its not aliens folks.
So give me an explanation, and then tell me why we shouldn’t be worried or interested
You can be interested if you want. I sense that you live for the dramatic and thus are WANTING a dramatic resolution. How about someone thought they saw something and now others are thinking they are seeing things (contagion). Or that after someone thought they saw something, some local idiots then started using drones for fun.
I doubt very much its the Chinese or the Russians.
I'd rule out aliens.
People are, on the whole, terrible witnesses.
I said give me your explanation and tell me why we shouldn’t be worried or interested
Because you literally said this is “unexciting” and “PB shrugs”
Because like most flaps there was probably an initial trigger (someone saw something) and then it snowballed.
Take crop circles. What was always the most likely explanation? People stamping down the crops to make pretty pictures. The art was actually incredible - more so as it was done at night, but it was still people walking round on planks at night in fields.
Take Gatwick? Was there EVER an initial drone? Were there others? Probably not. A mistake at the start and then the flap begins.
So you don’t think it’s both interesting (and worrying!) that entire military/security agencies have been apparently fooled - and troops sent out, and special forces activated, and jets and copters scrambled (which has all happened) - and they’ve been fooled because this is really just some ongoing mass hallucination in the UK and USA based on maybe one drone or maybe no drone at all
That just makes you “shrug”?
What were you like when your wife told you she was pregnant?
“Yeah, whatever, people have kids all the time”
What happened at Gatwick? The airport completely shut down.
You’re really quite dim. I get that. But do try, just a bit?
Gatwick is ALSO really interesting because it shows the power of psychological contagion/mass delusion - something which should compel all of us in a post truth age of easily faked images and videos. Indeed this stuff should fascinate anyone interested in almost anything - but especially society and politics - as it is going to get worse not better
However I don’t think we have a Gatwick situation here. Too many videos, too many locations, too many witnesses, too many extreme reactions from the ,military/security authorities, and it has gone on too long
No one knows what is happening. But if forced to guess I would - as I say - point at the Russians. It is an easy way to cause nerves and anxiety in the west, send up some unusual drones, at a time of great geopolitical volatility, roil us further, rely on our own psychological stress to do the rest
But, that’s just a guess
It could indeed be psychological warfare. Several of the sites host nuclear weapons, in both the U.S. abd here.
Question for the true believers (@Leon and @WhisperingOracle) - do you think Havana syndrome was (a) A attack on US personnel by means unknown e.g. sonic weapons etc) (b) Mass hysteria with no actual root cause? Or something else?
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
No, there is clear evidence that certain elections have been skewed by Putin's interference. If he minded his own business and wannabe totalitarians won anyway I don't believe we have an argument against them.
Evidence of Russia trying to manipulate social media is not evidence that anyone's vote has been swung by it, and they do it on both sides, for example funding anti-fracking groups.
Foreign interference is foreign interference.
Elon Musk bunging Farage £80m may not be technically illegal but it breaches the spirit of free and fair elections free from foreign actor interference. Russia funding anti-fracking groups is equally undesirable. I just don't get the shoulder shrug when Putin steals an election for an extremist cause from the left or the right, and Brexit.
Elon Musk will not bung Farage or Reform any significant amount. As I understand it: (a) none of his UK companies have business scale sufficient to make a meaningful donation within election law, and (b) he is not a UK citizen so cannot donate personally. Please note that even though he could possibly become a UK citizen (he had a UK grandmother) he would not do so as he would not then be able to work in/for SpaceX and would probably face much higher tax bills. What he can do is amplify Farage and Reform on X - or at least not mute them as other social networks do. That will help Farage enormously..
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
No, there is clear evidence that certain elections have been skewed by Putin's interference. If he minded his own business and wannabe totalitarians won anyway I don't believe we have an argument against them.
Evidence of Russia trying to manipulate social media is not evidence that anyone's vote has been swung by it, and they do it on both sides, for example funding anti-fracking groups.
Foreign interference is foreign interference.
Elon Musk bunging Farage £80m may not be technically illegal but it breaches the spirit of free and fair elections free from foreign actor interference. Russia funding anti-fracking groups is equally undesirable. I just don't get the shoulder shrug when Putin steals an election for an extremist cause from the left or the right, and Brexit.
Elon Musk will not bung Farage or Reform any significant amount. As I understand it: (a) none of his UK companies have business scale sufficient to make a meaningful donation within election law, and (b) he is not a UK citizen so cannot donate personally. Please note that even though he could possibly become a UK citizen (he had a UK grandmother) he would not do so as he would not then be able to work in/for SpaceX and would probably face much higher tax bills. What he can do is amplify Farage and Reform on X - or at least not mute them as other social networks do. That will help Farage enormously..
X really isn’t the social network it was even 2 months ago.
You only have to look at the South Korean Coup to see that Bluesky has taken the breaking news market
So, the specific accusation against Călin Georgescu is that he received ~€1,000,000 in illegal funding.
The problem is that liberal democracy can’t just ignore illegal acts because someone happens to have won an election. It looks bad, but that’s the rule of law for christ’s sake.
Rerunning the election feels fair if illegality did occur although barring the candidate does not feel fair.
Russian-backed troops fleeing and leaving a lot of equipment behind.
And reports that there is rebellion in ?Daraa? in the very south, near the Jordanian border. (allegedly the rebels there previously did a deal with Assad whereby they would lay down their weapons).
I see that @HYUFD ’s usual dismissive assertions that Assad and the Russians would crush the rebels within days was utter crap
I didn't say within days but certainly they must be contained by Assad's forces supported by Russian airstrikes and soon Russian mercenaries and elite Hezbollah forces are also starting to cross the border, otherwise the Al Qaeda linked rebels will threaten even Damascus and make Syria a base for global jihadism.
The Turkish backed rebels are also advancing on Kurdish positions in the NE of Syria and we must hope the Kurds hold them off too
The Russian helicopters are being used to evacuate the Russian top brass out of Homs, as at least the northern portion of the city has already fallen. Russian planes dropped a bridge north of Homs, but it doesn't seem to have stopped the rebels drive southwards.
The Russians have taken their naval vessels out of Tarsus. A main airbase north of there now looks to be unsustainable. Russia didn't have a balanced force in Syria; it was an air force and a naval base. They didn't have enough ground troops to support either, having relied on Assad's troops to fulfil that function.
Oops.
Israel may have to go in to Syria to create a buffer zone.
About the only people enjoying the current outcome are the rebels - and Turkey.
Putin is now starting to send mercenaries to support Assad and Hezbollah are sending fighters too.
Turkey may also be starting to send the rebels against the Kurds but Erdogan should be wary, if the jihadi militants took control of Damascus and removed Assad they could soon start to spread into Turkey too and even threaten to remove him as well
I would respectfuly suggest that after crushing his own internal dissent when they tried a coup, Erdogan is possibly the most solidly entrenched of any of the regional leaders.
And as mentioned elsewhere, he has a massive and well equipped army. Nearly 900,000 available combatants including regular forces, reservists and paramilitaries.
Ruth Deyermond @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social · 3m Not sure any state in the world has a foreign policy or diplomatic infrastructure that can cope with what’s going on at the moment.
Ruth Deyermond @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social · 3m Even states that aren’t in major crisis, such as the UK, just aren’t set up for dealing with this level of international chaos. It’s unprecedented in the modern era.
The weather warnings in place for this afternoon appear significantly apocalyptic, yet right now there's a hazy-blue sky, just gentle waves out at sea and not a gust of wind. Yet forty minutes to go before the warnings start to kick in....
Our warnings are for early tomorrow morning
It certainly is the lull before the storm just now
So, the specific accusation against Călin Georgescu is that he received ~€1,000,000 in illegal funding.
In the UK, in so far as I understand the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000, an elected MP guilty of such could be disqualified from being an MP (leading to a new election) and banned from standing again. However, I am unclear if the original election can be annulled or not. Anyone know?
So, the specific accusation against Călin Georgescu is that he received ~€1,000,000 in illegal funding.
In the UK, in so far as I understand the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000, an elected MP guilty of such could be disqualified from being an MP (leading to a new election) and banned from standing again. However, I am unclear if the original election can be annulled or not. Anyone know?
This is the problem all democracies face. We have to operate within the law, and those laws are mostly written down and well understood, both by us and our enemies. Yet all laws have gaps in them that can be exploited (whether by accident or design...), and a malignant third party can use those gaps to do things that are bad for the country.
The options therefore are to retrospectively change the law (bad), or go outside your own laws (also bad).
The reports, published by the Presidential Administration, reveal massive financing for pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu, which supported his TikTok campaign, spotted as the ninth-strongest at the global level during November 13-26 ahead of the presidential elections. The campaign resulted in the sharp advance of Georgescu's electoral support from some 6% to over 20% in the first round of the presidential elections.
The internal intelligence services SRI singles out TikTok user Bogdan Peşchir with the account "bogpr" who has donated over EUR 1 million for Georgescu's electoral campaign on the platform and reveals that TikTok has failed to tag as a political campaign the messages circulated by paid influencers in favor of Georgescu.
Estimates by Romanian experts put the financing of Calin Georgescu's campaign at over EUR 50 million and more than EUR 3 million per day in some periods. However, Georgescu reported no (RON 0) expenditures for his presidential campaign.
SRI indicated that the financing of TikTok influencers was ensured through the FameUp platform, which is dedicated to the monetization of promotional activities in the online environment at the level at which the advertising opportunity was published.
Wow. Romania. This shows what's possible if you put your mind to it. America needs to move quickly though. Jan 20th is not far off now.
So what should America be doing exactly?
Well it's too late to stop Trump2. That is coming. So we're looking to the Democrats and non-Maga Republicans to do their utmost in the next couple of years in the service of damage limitation and constitution defending. And probably some street action. It's going to get rough, I think.
So, the specific accusation against Călin Georgescu is that he received ~€1,000,000 in illegal funding.
In the UK, in so far as I understand the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000, an elected MP guilty of such could be disqualified from being an MP (leading to a new election) and banned from standing again. However, I am unclear if the original election can be annulled or not. Anyone know?
This is the problem all democracies face. We have to operate within the law, and those laws are mostly written down and well understood, both by us and our enemies. Yet all laws have gaps in them that can be exploited (whether by accident or design...), and a malignant third party can use those gaps to do things that are bad for the country.
The options therefore are to retrospectively change the law (bad), or go outside your own laws (also bad).
Who gets to decide who is 'malignant' and who isn't? Are adverts on the underground for assisted suicide a 'malignant' influence or are they a normal part of democracy? Would adverts opposing assisted suicide be acceptable? What if they are funded by the Vatican?
So, the specific accusation against Călin Georgescu is that he received ~€1,000,000 in illegal funding.
In the UK, in so far as I understand the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000, an elected MP guilty of such could be disqualified from being an MP (leading to a new election) and banned from standing again. However, I am unclear if the original election can be annulled or not. Anyone know?
This is the problem all democracies face. We have to operate within the law, and those laws are mostly written down and well understood, both by us and our enemies. Yet all laws have gaps in them that can be exploited (whether by accident or design...), and a malignant third party can use those gaps to do things that are bad for the country.
The options therefore are to retrospectively change the law (bad), or go outside your own laws (also bad).
Who gets to decide who is 'malignant' and who isn't? Are adverts on the underground for assisted suicide a 'malignant' influence or are they a normal part of democracy? Would adverts opposing assisted suicide be acceptable? What if they are funded by the Vatican?
Russian-backed troops fleeing and leaving a lot of equipment behind.
And reports that there is rebellion in ?Daraa? in the very south, near the Jordanian border. (allegedly the rebels there previously did a deal with Assad whereby they would lay down their weapons).
I see that @HYUFD ’s usual dismissive assertions that Assad and the Russians would crush the rebels within days was utter crap
I didn't say within days but certainly they must be contained by Assad's forces supported by Russian airstrikes and soon Russian mercenaries and elite Hezbollah forces are also starting to cross the border, otherwise the Al Qaeda linked rebels will threaten even Damascus and make Syria a base for global jihadism.
The Turkish backed rebels are also advancing on Kurdish positions in the NE of Syria and we must hope the Kurds hold them off too
The Russian helicopters are being used to evacuate the Russian top brass out of Homs, as at least the northern portion of the city has already fallen. Russian planes dropped a bridge north of Homs, but it doesn't seem to have stopped the rebels drive southwards.
The Russians have taken their naval vessels out of Tarsus. A main airbase north of there now looks to be unsustainable. Russia didn't have a balanced force in Syria; it was an air force and a naval base. They didn't have enough ground troops to support either, having relied on Assad's troops to fulfil that function.
Oops.
Israel may have to go in to Syria to create a buffer zone.
About the only people enjoying the current outcome are the rebels - and Turkey.
Putin is now starting to send mercenaries to support Assad and Hezbollah are sending fighters too.
Turkey may also be starting to send the rebels against the Kurds but Erdogan should be wary, if the jihadi militants took control of Damascus and removed Assad they could soon start to spread into Turkey too and even threaten to remove him as well
They'd find it a bit harder in Turkey. The coup attempt in 2016 was inept and poor, and actually helped cement Erdogan in place. Also, although Turkey has been remarkably welcoming to the three million Syrian refugees they have been helping for over a decade, public acceptance is wearing thin, with some violence directed against them earlier this year.
What would happen is more PKK-style terrorism, albeit with other groups.
Much as I dislike Erdogan and think he gets away with (literal) murder, I have grudging respect for his 'Turkey first' approach to global politics. I don't want the UK to become a boil on the bum of humanity like him, but we could do with some of his balls.
The reports, published by the Presidential Administration, reveal massive financing for pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu, which supported his TikTok campaign, spotted as the ninth-strongest at the global level during November 13-26 ahead of the presidential elections. The campaign resulted in the sharp advance of Georgescu's electoral support from some 6% to over 20% in the first round of the presidential elections.
The internal intelligence services SRI singles out TikTok user Bogdan Peşchir with the account "bogpr" who has donated over EUR 1 million for Georgescu's electoral campaign on the platform and reveals that TikTok has failed to tag as a political campaign the messages circulated by paid influencers in favor of Georgescu.
Estimates by Romanian experts put the financing of Calin Georgescu's campaign at over EUR 50 million and more than EUR 3 million per day in some periods. However, Georgescu reported no (RON 0) expenditures for his presidential campaign.
SRI indicated that the financing of TikTok influencers was ensured through the FameUp platform, which is dedicated to the monetization of promotional activities in the online environment at the level at which the advertising opportunity was published.
Same still going at Lakenheath, where the U.S. is about to station. Nuclear weapons for the first time in 15 years.
According to the unconfirmed reoort above, they can still operate in high winds.
Get back to us when there is one shot down, or seen in daylight and properly photographed.
Its not aliens folks.
So give me an explanation, and then tell me why we shouldn’t be worried or interested
You can be interested if you want. I sense that you live for the dramatic and thus are WANTING a dramatic resolution. How about someone thought they saw something and now others are thinking they are seeing things (contagion). Or that after someone thought they saw something, some local idiots then started using drones for fun.
I doubt very much its the Chinese or the Russians.
I'd rule out aliens.
People are, on the whole, terrible witnesses.
I said give me your explanation and tell me why we shouldn’t be worried or interested
Because you literally said this is “unexciting” and “PB shrugs”
Because like most flaps there was probably an initial trigger (someone saw something) and then it snowballed.
Take crop circles. What was always the most likely explanation? People stamping down the crops to make pretty pictures. The art was actually incredible - more so as it was done at night, but it was still people walking round on planks at night in fields.
Take Gatwick? Was there EVER an initial drone? Were there others? Probably not. A mistake at the start and then the flap begins.
So you don’t think it’s both interesting (and worrying!) that entire military/security agencies have been apparently fooled - and troops sent out, and special forces activated, and jets and copters scrambled (which has all happened) - and they’ve been fooled because this is really just some ongoing mass hallucination in the UK and USA based on maybe one drone or maybe no drone at all
That just makes you “shrug”?
What were you like when your wife told you she was pregnant?
“Yeah, whatever, people have kids all the time”
What happened at Gatwick? The airport completely shut down.
You’re really quite dim. I get that. But do try, just a bit?
Gatwick is ALSO really interesting because it shows the power of psychological contagion/mass delusion - something which should compel all of us in a post truth age of easily faked images and videos. Indeed this stuff should fascinate anyone interested in almost anything - but especially society and politics - as it is going to get worse not better
However I don’t think we have a Gatwick situation here. Too many videos, too many locations, too many witnesses, too many extreme reactions from the ,military/security authorities, and it has gone on too long
No one knows what is happening. But if forced to guess I would - as I say - point at the Russians. It is an easy way to cause nerves and anxiety in the west, send up some unusual drones, at a time of great geopolitical volatility, roil us further, rely on our own psychological stress to do the rest
But, that’s just a guess
It could indeed be psychological warfare. Several of the sites host nuclear weapons, in both the U.S. abd here.
Question for the true believers (@Leon and @WhisperingOracle) - do you think Havana syndrome was (a) A attack on US personnel by means unknown e.g. sonic weapons etc) (b) Mass hysteria with no actual root cause? Or something else?
I found those reports interesting at the time, but don't know too much about it, unfortunately. Perhaps Leon might know more ? This seems quite different, not least in that it's already brought in a wider range of people; random civilians, council and political authorities, and military and pentagon sources.
So, the specific accusation against Călin Georgescu is that he received ~€1,000,000 in illegal funding.
In the UK, in so far as I understand the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000, an elected MP guilty of such could be disqualified from being an MP (leading to a new election) and banned from standing again. However, I am unclear if the original election can be annulled or not. Anyone know?
This is the problem all democracies face. We have to operate within the law, and those laws are mostly written down and well understood, both by us and our enemies. Yet all laws have gaps in them that can be exploited (whether by accident or design...), and a malignant third party can use those gaps to do things that are bad for the country.
The options therefore are to retrospectively change the law (bad), or go outside your own laws (also bad).
I don't think there's any issue here with gaps in the law. As far as I know, Romania has followed its laws* and we have not entirely dissimilar laws.
* Without getting into discussions of whether the evidence was sufficient and the solution proportionate.
So, the specific accusation against Călin Georgescu is that he received ~€1,000,000 in illegal funding.
In the UK, in so far as I understand the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000, an elected MP guilty of such could be disqualified from being an MP (leading to a new election) and banned from standing again. However, I am unclear if the original election can be annulled or not. Anyone know?
This is the problem all democracies face. We have to operate within the law, and those laws are mostly written down and well understood, both by us and our enemies. Yet all laws have gaps in them that can be exploited (whether by accident or design...), and a malignant third party can use those gaps to do things that are bad for the country.
The options therefore are to retrospectively change the law (bad), or go outside your own laws (also bad).
Who gets to decide who is 'malignant' and who isn't? Are adverts on the underground for assisted suicide a 'malignant' influence or are they a normal part of democracy? Would adverts opposing assisted suicide be acceptable? What if they are funded by the Vatican?
The law decides. As should be the case with the rule of law. If there’s a law against it, then the law should be enforced. If there’s isn’t a law, then there should be no consequences. This is literally the fundamentals of our way of life and your edge lord contrarianism is getting tiresome.
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
Some people are on the side of Putin, however. There are those who keep repeating Putin's propaganda.
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has told the BBC the gas deals she made with Russia were intended to help German firms and kept the peace with Moscow.
She also insisted the war with Ukraine would have started earlier if she hadn’t blocked Kyiv’s entry into Nato in 2008.
On the latter she is right
If Ukraine had joined NATO in 2008 it's extremely unlikely that Russia would have dared to invade.
As strategic mistakes go it's right up there with the biggest.
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
Some people are on the side of Putin, however. There are those who keep repeating Putin's propaganda.
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has told the BBC the gas deals she made with Russia were intended to help German firms and kept the peace with Moscow.
She also insisted the war with Ukraine would have started earlier if she hadn’t blocked Kyiv’s entry into Nato in 2008.
On the latter she is right
If Ukraine had joined NATO in 2008 it's extremely unlikely that Russia would have dared to invade.
As strategic mistakes go it's right up there with the biggest.
Putin would have invaded well before its membership was completed.
Ukraine being told to give up its nuclear weapons in the 1990s was far more of a factor
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
Some people are on the side of Putin, however. There are those who keep repeating Putin's propaganda.
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has told the BBC the gas deals she made with Russia were intended to help German firms and kept the peace with Moscow.
She also insisted the war with Ukraine would have started earlier if she hadn’t blocked Kyiv’s entry into Nato in 2008.
On the latter she is right
If Ukraine had joined NATO in 2008 it's extremely unlikely that Russia would have dared to invade.
As strategic mistakes go it's right up there with the biggest.
Putin would have invaded well before its membership was completed.
Ukraine being told to give up its nuclear weapons in the 1990s was far more of a factor
Putin's army wasn't really in a state to tackle Ukraine back in 2008. It found Georgia hard enough around then, and had had its backside handed to it in Chechnya a few years earlier. They found Ukraine hard enough in 2014.
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
Some people are on the side of Putin, however. There are those who keep repeating Putin's propaganda.
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has told the BBC the gas deals she made with Russia were intended to help German firms and kept the peace with Moscow.
She also insisted the war with Ukraine would have started earlier if she hadn’t blocked Kyiv’s entry into Nato in 2008.
On the latter she is right
If Ukraine had joined NATO in 2008 it's extremely unlikely that Russia would have dared to invade.
As strategic mistakes go it's right up there with the biggest.
Putin would have invaded well before its membership was completed.
Ukraine being told to give up its nuclear weapons in the 1990s was far more of a factor
When Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO in 2022 they were given firm defence commitments by the US, Britain and other countries, precisely to dissuade an attack on them before they had NATO membership.
If a decision had been made to invite Ukraine into NATO in 2008, then the same process would have been followed, and Ukraine would have been under the US defence umbrella. Russia would not have invaded.
There's a global revolution against institutionally-captured 'liberal democracy'. Romania obviously wants to do it in the most dramatic way possible and have another Ceausescu moment.
Tell me what do you see in the multi Millionaire sociopath and electoral fraudster Vladimir Putin?
The line of thinking whereby if you don't vote for my policies, you are on the side of Putin has done more to damage democracy than any amount of social media manipulation.
Some people are on the side of Putin, however. There are those who keep repeating Putin's propaganda.
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has told the BBC the gas deals she made with Russia were intended to help German firms and kept the peace with Moscow.
She also insisted the war with Ukraine would have started earlier if she hadn’t blocked Kyiv’s entry into Nato in 2008.
On the latter she is right
If Ukraine had joined NATO in 2008 it's extremely unlikely that Russia would have dared to invade.
As strategic mistakes go it's right up there with the biggest.
Putin would have invaded well before its membership was completed.
Ukraine being told to give up its nuclear weapons in the 1990s was far more of a factor
When Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO in 2022 they were given firm defence commitments by the US, Britain and other countries, precisely to dissuade an attack on them before they had NATO membership.
If a decision had been made to invite Ukraine into NATO in 2008, then the same process would have been followed, and Ukraine would have been under the US defence umbrella. Russia would not have invaded.
That was only after Russia had invaded Ukraine in early 2022 and neither were former parts of the USSR like Ukraine and Sweden isn't even on the Russian border like Ukraine is so less of a concern for Putin if they joined NATO
Comments
Obviously Rfm on the up and Labour moving downward are the big trends.
The Russians have taken their naval vessels out of Tarsus. A main airbase north of there now looks to be unsustainable. Russia didn't have a balanced force in Syria; it was an air force and a naval base. They didn't have enough ground troops to support either, having relied on Assad's troops to fulfil that function.
Oops.
Israel may have to go in to Syria to create a buffer zone.
About the only people enjoying the current outcome are the rebels - and Turkey.
But a person can dream.
Enjoyed that though, the real me, breeze on the face. Liberating.
Turkey may also be starting to send the rebels against the Kurds but Erdogan should be wary, if the jihadi militants took control of Damascus and removed Assad they could soon start to spread into Turkey too and even threaten to remove him as well
The Romanian constitutional court is likely to use the Sosoaca precedent to ban Georgescu if they'll do that
Meaning the CC will effectively declare that opposition to the European Union equals literal treason
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3m
Not sure any state in the world has a foreign policy or diplomatic infrastructure that can cope with what’s going on at the moment.
Ruth Deyermond @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social
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Even states that aren’t in major crisis, such as the UK, just aren’t set up for dealing with this level of international chaos. It’s unprecedented in the modern era.
https://bsky.app/profile/ruthdeyermond.bsky.social/post/3lcnfqkfhjf2x
Elon Musk bunging Farage £80m may not be technically illegal but it breaches the spirit of free and fair elections free from foreign actor interference. Russia funding anti-fracking groups is equally undesirable. I just don't get the shoulder shrug when Putin steals an election for an extremist cause from the left or the right, and Brexit.
This is all part of Putin's playbook: try and undermine democracy in his favour, and if that does not work, use violence.
The problem is that it seems to be working, in many cases. And I don't know how we defend against it.
He had to throw a lot of people out of windows to get to that level of wealth. This perpetual downer on hardworking tyrants is talking down the innovation and productivity they represent.
"...The leadership of the world's most powerful state is, it seems, going to be trying to ditch its foundational ideology domestically while scrapping its decades-long foreign policy principles. Unmanaged hegemonic decline breeds chaos for the hegemon but also for everyone else..."
We are sooo fucked.
The problems with drones are even if it is just kids, they can endanger aircraft (which is why we have exclusion areas round airports) and arguably national security by photographing air bases (although the KGB probably knows where USAF bases are). They can also be used to carry contraband into prisons, ferry drugs, and even bombs as we have seen in Ukraine and Gaza.
But it's probably just kids and a self-important Congressman demanding someone else investigates.
What would happen is more PKK-style terrorism, albeit with other groups.
In any case of Damascus falling, you'd expect Erdoğan to be stronger.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3e8y1qly52o
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has told the BBC the gas deals she made with Russia were intended to help German firms and kept the peace with Moscow.
She also insisted the war with Ukraine would have started earlier if she hadn’t blocked Kyiv’s entry into Nato in 2008.
https://x.com/CameronDLWalker/status/1865004782701752405
I personally would doubt that, and if it is Russia or China, there could be national security reasons invoked for l the low visibility of coverage in most of the media.
https://x.com/leftiestats/status/1864750626279760218
#GE2029 projection in North East England:
🟪 REF 19 seats (+19)
🟦 CON 6 seats (+5)
🟥 LAB 2 seats (-24)
Based on @FindOutNowUK survey, 4 December
You only have to look at the South Korean Coup to see that Bluesky has taken the breaking news market
Rerunning the election feels fair if illegality did occur although barring the candidate does not feel fair.
And as mentioned elsewhere, he has a massive and well equipped army. Nearly 900,000 available combatants including regular forces, reservists and paramilitaries.
Tories still ahead in the South and East and West Midlands though so would still win most seats even if Reform get almost 100 seats too
It certainly is the lull before the storm just now
The options therefore are to retrospectively change the law (bad), or go outside your own laws (also bad).
The reports, published by the Presidential Administration, reveal massive financing for pro-Russian candidate Calin Georgescu, which supported his TikTok campaign, spotted as the ninth-strongest at the global level during November 13-26 ahead of the presidential elections. The campaign resulted in the sharp advance of Georgescu's electoral support from some 6% to over 20% in the first round of the presidential elections.
The internal intelligence services SRI singles out TikTok user Bogdan Peşchir with the account "bogpr" who has donated over EUR 1 million for Georgescu's electoral campaign on the platform and reveals that TikTok has failed to tag as a political campaign the messages circulated by paid influencers in favor of Georgescu.
Estimates by Romanian experts put the financing of Calin Georgescu's campaign at over EUR 50 million and more than EUR 3 million per day in some periods. However, Georgescu reported no (RON 0) expenditures for his presidential campaign.
SRI indicated that the financing of TikTok influencers was ensured through the FameUp platform, which is dedicated to the monetization of promotional activities in the online environment at the level at which the advertising opportunity was published.
This seems quite different, not least in that it's already brought in a wider range of people; random civilians, council and political authorities, and military and pentagon sources.
* Without getting into discussions of whether the evidence was sufficient and the solution proportionate.
NEW THREAD
As strategic mistakes go it's right up there with the biggest.
Ukraine being told to give up its nuclear weapons in the 1990s was far more of a factor
If a decision had been made to invite Ukraine into NATO in 2008, then the same process would have been followed, and Ukraine would have been under the US defence umbrella. Russia would not have invaded.