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Eclipsing Badenoch. Soon Farage could be the favourite to be the next PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082

    Dura_Ace said:

    Bismillahir Rahmanir Raheem, I have returned.

    My Arabic immersion semester at the University of Jeddah was excellent. I was going to go to Cairo University for the foreign semester during my Masters but I think I will come back to the Bride of the Red Sea instead.

    I can really see the appeal of just surrendering to the mysticism of the Moyen-Orient and disappearing into it like Burton, Philby Snr, Richard Keys and Andy Grey. If I didn't have commitments, I'd like to have a house in Al Balad and do nothing but read the Glorious Quran all day. After I had claimed hafiz status I would learn Persian and immerse myself in the complete works of Rumi. Finally, on my 60th birthday, like the most noted miniaturists of the Sublime Porte, I would blind myself with long iron needle tipped with a peacock feather as my eyes would no longer be capable of perceiving the world as Allah (Subhanahu wa Ta'ala) made it.


    I met a lot of young Saudi undergraduates and noted that the radical pan-Arab socialism of Nasser, Afleq and al-Bitar is now moribund. To the extent that they had an ideology it was varying shades of consumerist nihilism and Salafist fundamentalism. Thank Allah (Subhanahu wa Ta'ala) who made the skies and the earth, they have zero interest in and no small contempt for pluralist liberal democracy.

    I did radio interview in MSA on life as a mature foreign student in Jeddah and was sweating like Therese Coffey on a Parkrun but got through it. As a result, I was asked to write a newspaper article on the same theme. Sensing a payday, I penned a few anodyne lines on student life followed by a polemic demanding an immediate and violent end to the State of Israel. This I submitted, with a frankly outrageous invoice that was paid promptly and without quibble. Journalism is fucking bollocks and anyone can do it.

    I hope you all lumped on Jorge Martin to win the MotoGP WC at 1.8 when I told you back in June he would win it. I won a substantial four figure sum then the c*nts at .com closed my account.

    Welcome back.
    Nowadays aren’t we all consumerist nihilists enraged because the credit card is maxed out, and seething with contempt for pluralist liberal democracy? It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
    It's just Andrew Tate Does Islam.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,442

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Offtopic, but a really interesting thread on the EU tech brain drain, mostly to the US.

    https://x.com/itsolelehmann/status/1864850794866184570

    UK government should be all over this, trying to attract these people themselves by fostering a good half-way between European and US culture and regulation. It’s a massive Brexit benefit to be away from whatever the EU are about to do with AI regulation.

    UK record on AI brain drain: flogging DeepMind to the yanks.
    That hasn't led to brain drain, it led to a multi-billion pound HQ in the centre of London and hiring 100s of the best PhDs. Now has it met that yet again the US reap the ultimate benefits of any potential ground breaking AI, that's a different story.

    The real question is that without Google's money / compute, DeepMind probably would have never have been able to scale. If it had been a US company it probably would e.g. Anthropic. I have heard several UK tech entrepreneurs saying you just can't get the VC money in the UK to scale fast and vast, everybody is very risk averse. And there is also a problem with mentality of the best and the brightest wanting to take risks themselves and set up a DeepMind.
    Indeed, so the problem you end up with is the British founders selling out for £millions, while the later US investors end up making the $billions.
    That may be the problem, but the 'cause' IMV is a sparsity of good VCs and VC companies in the UK (there are apparently some...), combined with short-term thinking and low risk tolerance by banking institutions.

    That has been an accusation for decades, and seems to be an almost unfixable part of our culture.
    There would be a whole load more VC money in the UK, if the UK investors had made £billions in the past rather than selling out to American capital way too early.
    Short-term gains again.
    Risk aversion can also be slightly distinct, as Max prefers to highlight the side of, but they are definitely both present and intertwined problems in the U.K.
    Besides, why bother when you can make solid profits so easily by buying farmland?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    Dopermean said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    On the header, I think they are all too short - though perhaps trading value in Streeting and Rayner. I think Hybrid Air vehicles on the previous thread may be a better investment.

    Are there any potential alternatives to Rayner from the 'working class' (?) side of the party. I cannot find a better word.

    On Hybrid.

    I'm an investor, albeit on a small scale.

    I haven't had this email so far.


    Airships are going to have a tough time with a warming climate and higher wind speeds.

    Should be noted that airships fly at relatively slow speed through air, therefore if they're going against the wind then they'll have to fly far further through air than a plane. That's why they've never been a commercial success, anything other than a tailwind and they're screwed.
    They make sense for bulk freight.
    There's a big gap between fast but expensive (current air freight), and cheap but slow (shipping).

    It would need someone with very deep pockets deciding to set up the new industry, though.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,895

    Taz said:

    Germany really is becoming the sick man of Europe.

    VW workers are going on strike for 4 hours in 9 factories over the threat of closures.

    However if people are not buying their cars then what will they have to build ?


    German industrial production unexpectedly fell in October, owing mainly to declines in energy production and in the automotive industry, the federal statistics office said on Friday.

    Production was down by 1.0% in October from the previous month, the office said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/german-industrial-output-unexpectedly-falls-in-october/ar-AA1vnnuq?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=379165fe21944381d3f9eed745c9af24&ei=20

    The Germans like us have shot themselves in the foot with net zero twaddle.

    I suspect however they will reverse it quite quickly and drag the EU along with them.
    That isn't their problem.

    Their problem is that their car manufacturers are late to the EV transition and are being left behind. If the EUs rules had been tighter then they would have been forced to invest in that transition earlier, and they'd be in a better place now.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    Farage becoming the next PM isn’t exactly a black swan. All that needs to happen is for Starmer to remain in position until the next election and for Reform to become the largest party, which isn’t impossible and may even start to look likely if they continue to get defections from the Tories.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082

    The thing that is killing the German automakers, they are crap at software. Brilliant at ICE engineering, rubbish at writing software that the consumer will interact with. Also not exactly smashing the AI / ML stuff either.

    A friend who worked for Tata (did a lot of teardowns of rival cars) said that the mishmash of computers and controllers, badly networked together in quite high end cars was startling. His background was software engineering, with a bunch of electronics knowledge.

    He reckoned it came down to separate units within the manufacturers, all jealously guarding "their" bit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited December 6

    fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Badenoch is a lay for next PM.

    3 reasons:

    1) she may well not be LOTO by 2029
    2) if she survives that long it is quite likely that she won't be in charge of the largest party after the GE.
    3) it's increasingly likely that Labour will change PM before the next election.

    I think Farage is far too short too.

    I know its me being a hostage to fortune, but I have to ask why you think that Labour will change its rules and make it any easier to change Leaders when in Government when it was literally impossible while in Opposition under their current rules. And even if they did, who in the current line up of possible successors will be able to turn around Labour's current political and economic woes through any drastic policy/political spin on the main issues ?

    I also think that while Badenoch has an incredible tough job ahead of her as the Leader of the Opposition because of that incredble Labour result at the last GE, it is in some ways what will make her position more safe especially as because she is already turning out to be a far more formidable opponent for Farage and Reform than Starmer and the Labour party right now are and already the local by-elections and polling are reflecting that.

    Lets see how Farage manages being a constitueny MP and Leader in charge of Reform with five MPs for the next five years, will he like he did with UKIP see a never ending revolving door of key players who joined his party and then left disillusioned with the set up under his leadership?....

    imo Starmer will step down around the time of the next election, and probably before. If he does follow Harold Wilson by resigning, then the question of how hard it is for Labour to oust a leader is moot.

    Starmer is in his 60s and soon will be older than any previous Prime Minister since Jim Callaghan. He is not a natural politician but at heart a lawyer. He has no great project he wants to see enacted. And (shades of Wilson?) he is starting to misspeak. For these reasons, I expect him to retire.
    Starmer is 15 years younger than the current President and the President elect of the US.

    Now he may do a Hollande and step down and hope Labour finds a Macron like figure like Streeting to replace him but age wise he is still certainly young enough to do the job
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited December 6

    The thing that is killing the German automakers, they are crap at software. Brilliant at ICE engineering, rubbish at writing software that the consumer will interact with. Also not exactly smashing the AI / ML stuff either.

    A friend who worked for Tata (did a lot of teardowns of rival cars) said that the mishmash of computers and controllers, badly networked together in quite high end cars was startling. His background was software engineering, with a bunch of electronics knowledge.

    He reckoned it came down to separate units within the manufacturers, all jealously guarding "their" bit.
    Its the downside of having an established company, you build up all this legacy tech that just works, but nobody wants to dare to change it in case something goes wrong. And then a supplier changes something and you have to bodge it in. And 5 years down the line, its bodge connected to bodge via another bodge.

    Where as a Tesla or BYD come along and start from scratch.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    edited December 6
    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Badenoch is a lay for next PM.

    3 reasons:

    1) she may well not be LOTO by 2029
    2) if she survives that long it is quite likely that she won't be in charge of the largest party after the GE.
    3) it's increasingly likely that Labour will change PM before the next election.

    I think Farage is far too short too.

    I know its me being a hostage to fortune, but I have to ask why you think that Labour will change its rules and make it any easier to change Leaders when in Government when it was literally impossible while in Opposition under their current rules. And even if they did, who in the current line up of possible successors will be able to turn around Labour's current political and economic woes through any drastic policy/political spin on the main issues ?

    I also think that while Badenoch has an incredible tough job ahead of her as the Leader of the Opposition because of that incredble Labour result at the last GE, it is in some ways what will make her position more safe especially as because she is already turning out to be a far more formidable opponent for Farage and Reform than Starmer and the Labour party right now are and already the local by-elections and polling are reflecting that.

    Lets see how Farage manages being a constitueny MP and Leader in charge of Reform with five MPs for the next five years, will he like he did with UKIP see a never ending revolving door of key players who joined his party and then left disillusioned with the set up under his leadership?....

    imo Starmer will step down around the time of the next election, and probably before. If he does follow Harold Wilson by resigning, then the question of how hard it is for Labour to oust a leader is moot.

    Starmer is in his 60s and soon will be older than any previous Prime Minister since Jim Callaghan. He is not a natural politician but at heart a lawyer. He has no great project he wants to see enacted. And (shades of Wilson?) he is starting to misspeak. For these reasons, I expect him to retire.
    Starmer is 15 years younger than the current President and the President elect of the US.

    Now he may do a Hollande and step down and hope Labour finds a Macron like figure like Streeting to replace him but age wise he is still certainly young enough to do the job
    PB is weird on age. No reason sixtysomethings can't be effective leaders.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172

    The thing that is killing the German automakers, they are crap at software. Brilliant at ICE engineering, rubbish at writing software that the consumer will interact with. Also not exactly smashing the AI / ML stuff either. Particularly with move to EVs, its all about the software.

    No, it's not.
    Battery production is probably more important - and is currently where most of the profit is for mass manufacturers.

    CATL - nearly 20% profit margin; BYD a bit over 5%.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Germany really is becoming the sick man of Europe.

    VW workers are going on strike for 4 hours in 9 factories over the threat of closures.

    However if people are not buying their cars then what will they have to build ?


    German industrial production unexpectedly fell in October, owing mainly to declines in energy production and in the automotive industry, the federal statistics office said on Friday.

    Production was down by 1.0% in October from the previous month, the office said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/german-industrial-output-unexpectedly-falls-in-october/ar-AA1vnnuq?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=379165fe21944381d3f9eed745c9af24&ei=20

    The Germans like us have shot themselves in the foot with net zero twaddle.

    I suspect however they will reverse it quite quickly and drag the EU along with them.
    Rather it's their failure to invest in it for their manufacturing industry.

    Auto production is massive for their economy, and they've effectively ceded the future of that to China. Having generously provided them with a good deal of their manufacturing technology.

    The other big mistake was banding nuclear power.
    The mistake was binning nuclear power without an alternative that wasn't Russian piped gas.

    The protests about any attempt to build LNG ports, at the time were interesting - but were almost un-noticed outside Germany. Personally, I thought that when a proposal to build an LNG terminal in Poland was getting semi-official protests from Germany, might have been a clue....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited December 6

    LE 2025 are going to be a bloodbath for SKS fans

    Since the 2024 General Election:

    LAB: 62 (-24)
    CON: 46 (+23)
    LDM: 30 (+1)
    GRN: 8 (+2)
    IND: 6 (-3)
    SNP: 5 (-1)
    RFM: 5 (+5)
    PLC: 2 (=)
    LOC: 2 (-2)

    163 seats contested since GE 2024


    Many of those seats were last up in 2024 or 2023 or 2022 though when Labour led the NEV in the local elections.

    Whereas the county council seats up next year were last up in 2021 when the Tories led the NEV with 36% and with Labour on 29%. So next year the Tories will likely see even bigger losses to Reform and the LDs than the Labour losses to Reform and the Greens
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited December 6
    Nigelb said:

    The thing that is killing the German automakers, they are crap at software. Brilliant at ICE engineering, rubbish at writing software that the consumer will interact with. Also not exactly smashing the AI / ML stuff either. Particularly with move to EVs, its all about the software.

    No, it's not.
    Battery production is probably more important - and is currently where most of the profit is for mass manufacturers.

    CATL - nearly 20% profit margin; BYD a bit over 5%.
    That's on just the EV side, but even on the ICE side, now everybody has seen a Tesla, people want all that functionality and experience. VW specific problem is they spent billions on setting up a dedicated software company, and they failed to do produce what was demanded, then they pivoted to a joint enterprise with a Chinese company and that went to shit. Now 5 years down the line they have no new software or any ability to produce it, so they now bought into Rivian for their software.

    https://insideevs.com/news/724619/rivian-volkswagen-explained-cm/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    Nigelb said:

    The thing that is killing the German automakers, they are crap at software. Brilliant at ICE engineering, rubbish at writing software that the consumer will interact with. Also not exactly smashing the AI / ML stuff either. Particularly with move to EVs, its all about the software.

    No, it's not.
    Battery production is probably more important - and is currently where most of the profit is for mass manufacturers.

    CATL - nearly 20% profit margin; BYD a bit over 5%.
    It's all of it. Reducing the mass of electronics in many cars to a simpler system can increase reliability, if done right. It definitely can reduce cost - miles of wiring in some cars, which equals fiddly fitting, quality control....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,330
    edited December 6

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Offtopic, but a really interesting thread on the EU tech brain drain, mostly to the US.

    https://x.com/itsolelehmann/status/1864850794866184570

    UK government should be all over this, trying to attract these people themselves by fostering a good half-way between European and US culture and regulation. It’s a massive Brexit benefit to be away from whatever the EU are about to do with AI regulation.

    UK record on AI brain drain: flogging DeepMind to the yanks.
    That hasn't led to brain drain, it led to a multi-billion pound HQ in the centre of London and hiring 100s of the best PhDs. Now has it met that yet again the US reap the ultimate benefits of any potential ground breaking AI, that's a different story.

    The real question is that without Google's money / compute, DeepMind probably would have never have been able to scale. If it had been a US company it probably would e.g. Anthropic. I have heard several UK tech entrepreneurs saying you just can't get the VC money in the UK to scale fast and vast, everybody is very risk averse. And there is also a problem with mentality of the best and the brightest wanting to take risks themselves and set up a DeepMind.
    Indeed, so the problem you end up with is the British founders selling out for £millions, while the later US investors end up making the $billions.
    That may be the problem, but the 'cause' IMV is a sparsity of good VCs and VC companies in the UK (there are apparently some...), combined with short-term thinking and low risk tolerance by banking institutions.

    That has been an accusation for decades, and seems to be an almost unfixable part of our culture.
    There would be a whole load more VC money in the UK, if the UK investors had made £billions in the past rather than selling out to American capital way too early.
    Short-term gains again.
    Risk aversion can also be slightly distinct, as Max prefers to highlight the side of, but they are definitely both present and intertwined problems in the U.K.
    Besides, why bother when you can make solid profits so easily by buying farmland?
    And no IHT* unlike with shares.

    *Subject to evasion, taxation changes, etc.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,330
    edited December 6
    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    mwadams said:

    Sandpit said:

    "Trains delayed across Britain due to 'nationwide fault' on communication system"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cv2g2rrjywqt

    Hmm.

    Not much further info, oddly.
    I’m more of a planes guy than a trains guy, but “Nationwide Fault” is always a worrying phrase.

    Take your pick from:
    1. Cyberattack.
    2. Messed-up software upgrade.
    3. Bug in a system, or an overflow similar to Y2K.
    4. Something stupid like a power cut somewhere critical, which no-one realised was critical until it failed.
    The fact that is apparently a connection issue and that it is fine once they've managed to establish a connection makes it look like (1 [they are being DDOSed in some way) or (2-and-therefore-the-first-part-of-3) to me.

    It would be a classic if it's 4.

    We used to have low-rise, wooden framed offices outside Cambridge that were built up on Madingley Hill - one of the laughably-low "high points" in the area. Two of us were working a weekend to get something done before an event, and, of course, there was a massive power-cut that hit the whole of West Cambridge and the villages, including our office.

    After a couple of hours, an electricity company van pulled up outside and the chaps got out. Turned out they were scanning the landscape with binoculars to see if they could see where the lines came down.

    They did this for an hour or so, sending people out if they spotted anything suspicious looking. But nope, there was nothing.

    Then one looked up at the electricity pole next to our building. It had one of those big distributor junction box things at the top of it, relaying power to the little complex of buildings we were in.

    It also had a massive, very dead, slightly toasted crow jammed in it.

    Turns out that was the cause of the outage.
    Shame it wasn't a raven. Would have proved the old adage 'one raven for sorrow' big time.
    Well, ravens are a type of crow, as a synonym for Corvus. Though I suspect mwadams may have been referring to a carrion crow.

    There was an entertaining back-and-forth on this on a BBC news article comments section after the journalist correctly referred to a rook as a crow.

    #PBpedantry.
    I remember my mother telling me about wartime, when a local chap would take his rook rifle to the rookery in season and shoot a few rooks, especially the young ones before they could fly. They were definitely known as craws and the rookery was in the trees of the Craw Wid.

    They made an excellent pie, off the ration as a bonus.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082

    The thing that is killing the German automakers, they are crap at software. Brilliant at ICE engineering, rubbish at writing software that the consumer will interact with. Also not exactly smashing the AI / ML stuff either.

    A friend who worked for Tata (did a lot of teardowns of rival cars) said that the mishmash of computers and controllers, badly networked together in quite high end cars was startling. His background was software engineering, with a bunch of electronics knowledge.

    He reckoned it came down to separate units within the manufacturers, all jealously guarding "their" bit.
    Its the downside of having an established company, you build up all this legacy tech that just works, but nobody wants to dare to change it in case something goes wrong. And then a supplier changes something and you have to bodge it in. And 5 years down the line, its bodge connected to bodge via another bodge.

    Where as a Tesla or BYD come along and start from scratch.
    Yes. One thing I mean to do is write a book on the social problem on change in organisations. Culturally, legacy automakers saw EVs with the following patterns

    1) Fuck the engine and transmission divisions. Traditionally big, powerful sub-organisations.
    2) Electronics isn't serious engineering. Stuff you buy from third parties. It's just an electric motor and some batteries, right

    The Tata guy (above) found the second very strong among the guys he was working with - at the time EVs were just beginning to bite into the market.
  • All this why I'm still staggered that Starner's government postponed the EV green investment plsn.

    That was an absolute key part of their campaigning promises, until the Tories started politicking about it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    edited December 6

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Badenoch is a lay for next PM.

    3 reasons:

    1) she may well not be LOTO by 2029
    2) if she survives that long it is quite likely that she won't be in charge of the largest party after the GE.
    3) it's increasingly likely that Labour will change PM before the next election.

    I think Farage is far too short too.

    I know its me being a hostage to fortune, but I have to ask why you think that Labour will change its rules and make it any easier to change Leaders when in Government when it was literally impossible while in Opposition under their current rules. And even if they did, who in the current line up of possible successors will be able to turn around Labour's current political and economic woes through any drastic policy/political spin on the main issues ?

    I also think that while Badenoch has an incredible tough job ahead of her as the Leader of the Opposition because of that incredble Labour result at the last GE, it is in some ways what will make her position more safe especially as because she is already turning out to be a far more formidable opponent for Farage and Reform than Starmer and the Labour party right now are and already the local by-elections and polling are reflecting that.

    Lets see how Farage manages being a constitueny MP and Leader in charge of Reform with five MPs for the next five years, will he like he did with UKIP see a never ending revolving door of key players who joined his party and then left disillusioned with the set up under his leadership?....

    imo Starmer will step down around the time of the next election, and probably before. If he does follow Harold Wilson by resigning, then the question of how hard it is for Labour to oust a leader is moot.

    Starmer is in his 60s and soon will be older than any previous Prime Minister since Jim Callaghan. He is not a natural politician but at heart a lawyer. He has no great project he wants to see enacted. And (shades of Wilson?) he is starting to misspeak. For these reasons, I expect him to retire.
    Starmer is 15 years younger than the current President and the President elect of the US.

    Now he may do a Hollande and step down and hope Labour finds a Macron like figure like Streeting to replace him but age wise he is still certainly young enough to do the job
    PB is weird on age. No reason sixtysomethings can't be effective leaders.
    Thatcher was PM half in her sixties for starters yes, Attlee and Macmillan were PM entirely in their sixties
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405
    edited December 6
    Re: @JosiasJessop
    We certainly need more sewage infrastructure - in addition to the obviously increasing numbers of people on these shores, long term I think it's definitely getting wetter. Here's the (annual running average) England Wales precipitation (Rain) series since 1932 in a colour coded picture (Darker blue = wetter; spot the summer of 1976 perhaps our only "true" drought in the last hundred years since 1934.


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,330

    Taz said:

    Germany really is becoming the sick man of Europe.

    VW workers are going on strike for 4 hours in 9 factories over the threat of closures.

    However if people are not buying their cars then what will they have to build ?


    German industrial production unexpectedly fell in October, owing mainly to declines in energy production and in the automotive industry, the federal statistics office said on Friday.

    Production was down by 1.0% in October from the previous month, the office said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/german-industrial-output-unexpectedly-falls-in-october/ar-AA1vnnuq?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=379165fe21944381d3f9eed745c9af24&ei=20

    The Germans like us have shot themselves in the foot with net zero twaddle.

    I suspect however they will reverse it quite quickly and drag the EU along with them.
    You're obviously not feeling yourself today. No 'Ms Reeves is ****'.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320

    F1: half a dozen rookies in first practice. Notable ones are Jack Doohan, taking Ocon's place at Alpine for the final race, and Arthur Leclerc, who joins his brother for Ferrari for the session.

    I am more interested in the current bust up between Verstappen and Russell, I predicted it two year ago, Verstappen is another Schumacher, a very talented but flawed driver who makes unnecessary stupid mistakes under pressure where the equally talented Lewis Hamilton does not in the right car.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864

    Farage becoming the next PM isn’t exactly a black swan. All that needs to happen is for Starmer to remain in position until the next election and for Reform to become the largest party, which isn’t impossible and may even start to look likely if they continue to get defections from the Tories.

    Reform would need to get to around 30% to become largest party.

    That would require them to start to take middle class Tories who are still largely resistant to Farage, it is white working class voters Farage has mainly been taking from the Tories and Labour so far
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    fitalass said:

    F1: half a dozen rookies in first practice. Notable ones are Jack Doohan, taking Ocon's place at Alpine for the final race, and Arthur Leclerc, who joins his brother for Ferrari for the session.

    I am more interested in the current bust up between Verstappen and Russell, I predicted it two year ago, Verstappen is another Schumacher, a very talented but flawed driver who makes unnecessary stupid mistakes under pressure where the equally talented Lewis Hamilton does not in the right car.
    Ha, it's very handbags. A title battle between the pair would be nice and spicy. Not impossible, but perhaps unlikely given how close the top teams are. That said, both men are likely to benefit from being clear team leaders in 2025, unlike Ferrari and McLaren which don't have real de facto number 1 drivers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    Btw, FP1 is underway, got about 45 minutes to go.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082

    All this why I'm still staggered that Starner's government postponed the EV green investment plsn.

    That was an absolute key part of their campaigning promises, until the Tories started politicking about it.

    Policy For Sale Warning -

    The government offers a subsidy per watt of power storage installed in a road vehicle actually for sale. Subsidy is paid after the sale. Subsidy is scaled to the UK content of the storage system. Note that any technology for storing power is applicable - batteries, hydrogen, immigrants on exercise bikes.....

    This means that anyone building a UK plant to build batteries (say) gets the subsidy - but after they actually build the factory and sell some batteries. Which means that it only rewards success. And that actually paying out the money will be at least 5 years into the future.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972

    Nigelb said:

    The thing that is killing the German automakers, they are crap at software. Brilliant at ICE engineering, rubbish at writing software that the consumer will interact with. Also not exactly smashing the AI / ML stuff either. Particularly with move to EVs, its all about the software.

    No, it's not.
    Battery production is probably more important - and is currently where most of the profit is for mass manufacturers.

    CATL - nearly 20% profit margin; BYD a bit over 5%.
    That's on just the EV side, but even on the ICE side, now everybody has seen a Tesla, people want all that functionality and experience. VW specific problem is they spent billions on setting up a dedicated software company, and they failed to do produce what was demanded, then they pivoted to a joint enterprise with a Chinese company and that went to shit. Now 5 years down the line they have no new software or any ability to produce it, so they now bought into Rivian for their software.

    https://insideevs.com/news/724619/rivian-volkswagen-explained-cm/
    So many modern cars are going to be about as useful as a decade-old Android mobile phone by 2030.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,668
    Pulpstar said:

    Re: @JosiasJessop
    We certainly need more sewage infrastructure - in addition to the obviously increasing numbers of people on these shores, long term I think it's definitely getting wetter. Here's the (annual running average) England Wales precipitation (Rain) series since 1932 in a colour coded picture (Darker blue = wetter; spot the summer of 1976 perhaps our only "true" drought in the last hundred years since 1934.


    And the Ladybirds. I was 3 in the summer of 1976, and as a consequence, I still think there clearly aren't enough ladybirds every year.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972

    All this why I'm still staggered that Starner's government postponed the EV green investment plsn.

    That was an absolute key part of their campaigning promises, until the Tories started politicking about it.

    Policy For Sale Warning -

    The government offers a subsidy per watt of power storage installed in a road vehicle actually for sale. Subsidy is paid after the sale. Subsidy is scaled to the UK content of the storage system. Note that any technology for storing power is applicable - batteries, hydrogen, immigrants on exercise bikes.....

    This means that anyone building a UK plant to build batteries (say) gets the subsidy - but after they actually build the factory and sell some batteries. Which means that it only rewards success. And that actually paying out the money will be at least 5 years into the future.
    But that means investors and banks taking actual risk, rather than simply taking the subsidies.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,760
    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.
  • All this why I'm still staggered that Starner's government postponed the EV green investment plsn.

    That was an absolute key part of their campaigning promises, until the Tories started politicking about it.

    This is a very good article on EVs and a salutary warning to all car makers apart from Chinese

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-electric-shock-behind-europes-stuttering-ev-future-and-how-china-has-leapfrogged-major-car-exporting-nations-13267440
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,694
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Badenoch is a lay for next PM.

    3 reasons:

    1) she may well not be LOTO by 2029
    2) if she survives that long it is quite likely that she won't be in charge of the largest party after the GE.
    3) it's increasingly likely that Labour will change PM before the next election.

    I think Farage is far too short too.

    I know its me being a hostage to fortune, but I have to ask why you think that Labour will change its rules and make it any easier to change Leaders when in Government when it was literally impossible while in Opposition under their current rules. And even if they did, who in the current line up of possible successors will be able to turn around Labour's current political and economic woes through any drastic policy/political spin on the main issues ?

    I also think that while Badenoch has an incredible tough job ahead of her as the Leader of the Opposition because of that incredble Labour result at the last GE, it is in some ways what will make her position more safe especially as because she is already turning out to be a far more formidable opponent for Farage and Reform than Starmer and the Labour party right now are and already the local by-elections and polling are reflecting that.

    Lets see how Farage manages being a constitueny MP and Leader in charge of Reform with five MPs for the next five years, will he like he did with UKIP see a never ending revolving door of key players who joined his party and then left disillusioned with the set up under his leadership?....

    imo Starmer will step down around the time of the next election, and probably before. If he does follow Harold Wilson by resigning, then the question of how hard it is for Labour to oust a leader is moot.

    Starmer is in his 60s and soon will be older than any previous Prime Minister since Jim Callaghan. He is not a natural politician but at heart a lawyer. He has no great project he wants to see enacted. And (shades of Wilson?) he is starting to misspeak. For these reasons, I expect him to retire.
    Starmer is 15 years younger than the current President and the President elect of the US.

    Now he may do a Hollande and step down and hope Labour finds a Macron like figure like Streeting to replace him but age wise he is still certainly young enough to do the job
    PB is weird on age. No reason sixtysomethings can't be effective leaders.
    Thatcher was PM half in her sixties for starters yes, Attlee and Macmillan were PM entirely in their sixties
    Mentally, the sixties were fine. As were the seventies. It's the eighties where things, primarily physically but, I fear, a little mentally, are going astray.

    A personal viewpoint.


    And welcome back Dura Ace!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,826

    fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Badenoch is a lay for next PM.

    3 reasons:

    1) she may well not be LOTO by 2029
    2) if she survives that long it is quite likely that she won't be in charge of the largest party after the GE.
    3) it's increasingly likely that Labour will change PM before the next election.

    I think Farage is far too short too.

    I know its me being a hostage to fortune, but I have to ask why you think that Labour will change its rules and make it any easier to change Leaders when in Government when it was literally impossible while in Opposition under their current rules. And even if they did, who in the current line up of possible successors will be able to turn around Labour's current political and economic woes through any drastic policy/political spin on the main issues ?

    I also think that while Badenoch has an incredible tough job ahead of her as the Leader of the Opposition because of that incredble Labour result at the last GE, it is in some ways what will make her position more safe especially as because she is already turning out to be a far more formidable opponent for Farage and Reform than Starmer and the Labour party right now are and already the local by-elections and polling are reflecting that.

    Lets see how Farage manages being a constitueny MP and Leader in charge of Reform with five MPs for the next five years, will he like he did with UKIP see a never ending revolving door of key players who joined his party and then left disillusioned with the set up under his leadership?....

    imo Starmer will step down around the time of the next election, and probably before. If he does follow Harold Wilson by resigning, then the question of how hard it is for Labour to oust a leader is moot.

    Starmer is in his 60s and soon will be older than any previous Prime Minister since Jim Callaghan. He is not a natural politician but at heart a lawyer. He has no great project he wants to see enacted. And (shades of Wilson?) he is starting to misspeak. For these reasons, I expect him to retire.
    Misspeaking occurs when the truth is not forthcoming
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,668
    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    mwadams said:

    Sandpit said:

    "Trains delayed across Britain due to 'nationwide fault' on communication system"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cv2g2rrjywqt

    Hmm.

    Not much further info, oddly.
    I’m more of a planes guy than a trains guy, but “Nationwide Fault” is always a worrying phrase.

    Take your pick from:
    1. Cyberattack.
    2. Messed-up software upgrade.
    3. Bug in a system, or an overflow similar to Y2K.
    4. Something stupid like a power cut somewhere critical, which no-one realised was critical until it failed.
    The fact that is apparently a connection issue and that it is fine once they've managed to establish a connection makes it look like (1 [they are being DDOSed in some way) or (2-and-therefore-the-first-part-of-3) to me.

    It would be a classic if it's 4.

    We used to have low-rise, wooden framed offices outside Cambridge that were built up on Madingley Hill - one of the laughably-low "high points" in the area. Two of us were working a weekend to get something done before an event, and, of course, there was a massive power-cut that hit the whole of West Cambridge and the villages, including our office.

    After a couple of hours, an electricity company van pulled up outside and the chaps got out. Turned out they were scanning the landscape with binoculars to see if they could see where the lines came down.

    They did this for an hour or so, sending people out if they spotted anything suspicious looking. But nope, there was nothing.

    Then one looked up at the electricity pole next to our building. It had one of those big distributor junction box things at the top of it, relaying power to the little complex of buildings we were in.

    It also had a massive, very dead, slightly toasted crow jammed in it.

    Turns out that was the cause of the outage.
    Shame it wasn't a raven. Would have proved the old adage 'one raven for sorrow' big time.
    Well, ravens are a type of crow, as a synonym for Corvus. Though I suspect mwadams may have been referring to a carrion crow.

    There was an entertaining back-and-forth on this on a BBC news article comments section after the journalist correctly referred to a rook as a crow.

    #PBpedantry.
    I've always commemorated that Crow in some way. I feel like it should be remembered. For example, my current business runs an open-source org on github called "Corvus".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172

    Nigelb said:

    The thing that is killing the German automakers, they are crap at software. Brilliant at ICE engineering, rubbish at writing software that the consumer will interact with. Also not exactly smashing the AI / ML stuff either. Particularly with move to EVs, its all about the software.

    No, it's not.
    Battery production is probably more important - and is currently where most of the profit is for mass manufacturers.

    CATL - nearly 20% profit margin; BYD a bit over 5%.
    It's all of it. Reducing the mass of electronics in many cars to a simpler system can increase reliability, if done right. It definitely can reduce cost - miles of wiring in some cars, which equals fiddly fitting, quality control....
    Profit margins don't lie.
    Battery production is, for now, the big differentiator in EV manufacturing.

    True that Germany is pretty crap at consumer software, though.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,330
    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.

    You'll enjoy the 1950s stringback gloves vibe. Your insights were particularly missed.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,826

    Nigelb said:

    The thing that is killing the German automakers, they are crap at software. Brilliant at ICE engineering, rubbish at writing software that the consumer will interact with. Also not exactly smashing the AI / ML stuff either. Particularly with move to EVs, its all about the software.

    No, it's not.
    Battery production is probably more important - and is currently where most of the profit is for mass manufacturers.

    CATL - nearly 20% profit margin; BYD a bit over 5%.
    It's all of it. Reducing the mass of electronics in many cars to a simpler system can increase reliability, if done right. It definitely can reduce cost - miles of wiring in some cars, which equals fiddly fitting, quality control....
    My Mazda is ultra reliable.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Badenoch is a lay for next PM.

    3 reasons:

    1) she may well not be LOTO by 2029
    2) if she survives that long it is quite likely that she won't be in charge of the largest party after the GE.
    3) it's increasingly likely that Labour will change PM before the next election.

    I think Farage is far too short too.

    I know its me being a hostage to fortune, but I have to ask why you think that Labour will change its rules and make it any easier to change Leaders when in Government when it was literally impossible while in Opposition under their current rules. And even if they did, who in the current line up of possible successors will be able to turn around Labour's current political and economic woes through any drastic policy/political spin on the main issues ?

    I also think that while Badenoch has an incredible tough job ahead of her as the Leader of the Opposition because of that incredble Labour result at the last GE, it is in some ways what will make her position more safe especially as because she is already turning out to be a far more formidable opponent for Farage and Reform than Starmer and the Labour party right now are and already the local by-elections and polling are reflecting that.

    Lets see how Farage manages being a constitueny MP and Leader in charge of Reform with five MPs for the next five years, will he like he did with UKIP see a never ending revolving door of key players who joined his party and then left disillusioned with the set up under his leadership?....

    imo Starmer will step down around the time of the next election, and probably before. If he does follow Harold Wilson by resigning, then the question of how hard it is for Labour to oust a leader is moot.

    Starmer is in his 60s and soon will be older than any previous Prime Minister since Jim Callaghan. He is not a natural politician but at heart a lawyer. He has no great project he wants to see enacted. And (shades of Wilson?) he is starting to misspeak. For these reasons, I expect him to retire.
    Starmer is 15 years younger than the current President and the President elect of the US.

    Now he may do a Hollande and step down and hope Labour finds a Macron like figure like Streeting to replace him but age wise he is still certainly young enough to do the job
    PB is weird on age. No reason sixtysomethings can't be effective leaders.
    Thatcher was PM half in her sixties for starters yes, Attlee and Macmillan were PM entirely in their sixties
    Mentally, the sixties were fine. As were the seventies. It's the eighties where things, primarily physically but, I fear, a little mentally, are going astray.

    A personal viewpoint.


    And welcome back Dura Ace!
    And my view
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,495

    "could" doing some heavy lifting in the header there.

    My aunt COULD grow a pair of balls and become my uncle.

    More likely than Farage as PM for sure
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,895
    Reportedly Russia has started selling off its gold reserves to finance its budget. I know people have been predicting the imminent collapse of Russia every month since February 2022, but I wonder whether they might actually be on the verge of collapse this time, just when the West is poised to give up.

    In Syria the HTS advance continues and is now near Homs. There are also uprisings in southern Syria, and the SDF is advancing south of the Euphrates. How much is Russia able and willing to help Assad?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.

    The majority hated it, I think. (Though a lot of that was just the anti-woke mob.)

    The concept does look pretty ridiculous.
    Why does an EV need a massive bonnet; why is the visibility designed to be crap; why is there so little interior space in something so big; what is the point of it ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112

    Reportedly Russia has started selling off its gold reserves to finance its budget. I know people have been predicting the imminent collapse of Russia every month since February 2022, but I wonder whether they might actually be on the verge of collapse this time, just when the West is poised to give up.

    In Syria the HTS advance continues and is now near Homs. There are also uprisings in southern Syria, and the SDF is advancing south of the Euphrates. How much is Russia able and willing to help Assad?

    Sacrifice Assad to concentrate on Ukraine?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561

    Haven't seen this posted yet:

    Cholsey (South Oxfordshire) Council By-Election Result:

    🔶 LDM: 62.2% (+16.1)
    🌳 CON: 23.7% (+0.9)
    🔴 SDP: 7.6% (+2.3)
    🌹 LAB: 4.7% (New)
    🙋 IND: 1.8% (New)

    No IND (-25.7) as previous.

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1864824896640922004

    By-election was marked by heavy rain and only the LDs making an effort, with the (new) Labour candidate having severe family health problems and understandably doing nothing and the Conservatives putting out one leaflet weeks ago. The SDP are a bit of a mystery (to me anyway) - they doggedly stand at every opportunity with a meh but expensive leaflet and never win anything.

    County elections in Oxfordshire next year - currently roughly a third each for LibDems, Labour and Tories. Each party concentrating on a limited number of seats.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.

    The picture of the new Jaguar had me thinking of the DeKhotinsky Sixteen Special.

    The future as imagined in 1950. The Gernsback Continuum.....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,394

    fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Badenoch is a lay for next PM.

    3 reasons:

    1) she may well not be LOTO by 2029
    2) if she survives that long it is quite likely that she won't be in charge of the largest party after the GE.
    3) it's increasingly likely that Labour will change PM before the next election.

    I think Farage is far too short too.

    I know its me being a hostage to fortune, but I have to ask why you think that Labour will change its rules and make it any easier to change Leaders when in Government when it was literally impossible while in Opposition under their current rules. And even if they did, who in the current line up of possible successors will be able to turn around Labour's current political and economic woes through any drastic policy/political spin on the main issues ?

    I also think that while Badenoch has an incredible tough job ahead of her as the Leader of the Opposition because of that incredble Labour result at the last GE, it is in some ways what will make her position more safe especially as because she is already turning out to be a far more formidable opponent for Farage and Reform than Starmer and the Labour party right now are and already the local by-elections and polling are reflecting that.

    Lets see how Farage manages being a constitueny MP and Leader in charge of Reform with five MPs for the next five years, will he like he did with UKIP see a never ending revolving door of key players who joined his party and then left disillusioned with the set up under his leadership?....

    imo Starmer will step down around the time of the next election, and probably before. If he does follow Harold Wilson by resigning, then the question of how hard it is for Labour to oust a leader is moot.

    Starmer is in his 60s and soon will be older than any previous Prime Minister since Jim Callaghan. He is not a natural politician but at heart a lawyer. He has no great project he wants to see enacted. And (shades of Wilson?) he is starting to misspeak. For these reasons, I expect him to retire.
    Misspeaking occurs when the truth is not forthcoming
    You think Starmer was lying when he called Louise Haigh the Justice Secretary the other day? Wilson resigned at 60 after his memory started to fail him. Starmer is already older.
  • Haven't seen this posted yet:

    Cholsey (South Oxfordshire) Council By-Election Result:

    🔶 LDM: 62.2% (+16.1)
    🌳 CON: 23.7% (+0.9)
    🔴 SDP: 7.6% (+2.3)
    🌹 LAB: 4.7% (New)
    🙋 IND: 1.8% (New)

    No IND (-25.7) as previous.

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1864824896640922004

    By-election was marked by heavy rain and only the LDs making an effort, with the (new) Labour candidate having severe family health problems and understandably doing nothing and the Conservatives putting out one leaflet weeks ago. The SDP are a bit of a mystery (to me anyway) - they doggedly stand at every opportunity with a meh but expensive leaflet and never win anything.

    County elections in Oxfordshire next year - currently roughly a third each for LibDems, Labour and Tories. Each party concentrating on a limited number of seats.
    Good morning Nick

    The conservatives gained two more seats last night, but Labour's share in Cardiff dropped 31.1% and whilst they still held the seat that must be a real worry for Welsh labour
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,394
    Lord Sir Sadiq is raising money for his ermine by selling the old railway signs after the great woke renaming. So if you've drawn @Sunil_Prasannan in pb's Secret Santa...
    https://www.ltmuseumshop.co.uk/vintage-shop/original-overground-signs
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.

    The majority hated it, I think. (Though a lot of that was just the anti-woke mob.)

    The concept does look pretty ridiculous.
    Why does an EV need a massive bonnet; why is the visibility designed to be crap; why is there so little interior space in something so big; what is the point of it ?
    It’s a car of a different era when you needed space for a large engine and people were smaller.

    Nowadays the reason for the height of the grill is pedestrian safety and the rest of the design is crumple zones
  • fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Badenoch is a lay for next PM.

    3 reasons:

    1) she may well not be LOTO by 2029
    2) if she survives that long it is quite likely that she won't be in charge of the largest party after the GE.
    3) it's increasingly likely that Labour will change PM before the next election.

    I think Farage is far too short too.

    I know its me being a hostage to fortune, but I have to ask why you think that Labour will change its rules and make it any easier to change Leaders when in Government when it was literally impossible while in Opposition under their current rules. And even if they did, who in the current line up of possible successors will be able to turn around Labour's current political and economic woes through any drastic policy/political spin on the main issues ?

    I also think that while Badenoch has an incredible tough job ahead of her as the Leader of the Opposition because of that incredble Labour result at the last GE, it is in some ways what will make her position more safe especially as because she is already turning out to be a far more formidable opponent for Farage and Reform than Starmer and the Labour party right now are and already the local by-elections and polling are reflecting that.

    Lets see how Farage manages being a constitueny MP and Leader in charge of Reform with five MPs for the next five years, will he like he did with UKIP see a never ending revolving door of key players who joined his party and then left disillusioned with the set up under his leadership?....

    imo Starmer will step down around the time of the next election, and probably before. If he does follow Harold Wilson by resigning, then the question of how hard it is for Labour to oust a leader is moot.

    Starmer is in his 60s and soon will be older than any previous Prime Minister since Jim Callaghan. He is not a natural politician but at heart a lawyer. He has no great project he wants to see enacted. And (shades of Wilson?) he is starting to misspeak. For these reasons, I expect him to retire.
    Misspeaking occurs when the truth is not forthcoming
    You think Starmer was lying when he called Louise Haigh the Justice Secretary the other day? Wilson resigned at 60 after his memory started to fail him. Starmer is already older.
    I would say it is remarkable we are even discussing this when he won a landslide a few months ago

    To be honest I think Starmer will last the full term barring unexpected health issues
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,668
    edited December 6

    Reportedly Russia has started selling off its gold reserves to finance its budget. I know people have been predicting the imminent collapse of Russia every month since February 2022, but I wonder whether they might actually be on the verge of collapse this time, just when the West is poised to give up.

    In Syria the HTS advance continues and is now near Homs. There are also uprisings in southern Syria, and the SDF is advancing south of the Euphrates. How much is Russia able and willing to help Assad?

    Sacrifice Assad to concentrate on Ukraine?
    That's the "emotional" (and most likely) response. But strategically, Russia probably benefits more from influence in that region that it does bleeding its army and economy out in Ukraine.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,857
    Foxy said:

    I think Badenoch is a lay for next PM.

    3 reasons:

    1) she may well not be LOTO by 2029
    2) if she survives that long it is quite likely that she won't be in charge of the largest party after the GE.
    3) it's increasingly likely that Labour will change PM before the next election.

    I think Farage is far too short too.

    The only candidates to back for next PM at the moment are long odds unlikely ones who could emerge out of the fog. Starmer is probably good for the next nearly 3 years, and by then the situation will have coped with a couple more black swans.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,495
    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Bismillahir Rahmanir Raheem, I have returned.

    My Arabic immersion semester at the University of Jeddah was excellent. I was going to go to Cairo University for the foreign semester during my Masters but I think I will come back to the Bride of the Red Sea instead.

    I can really see the appeal of just surrendering to the mysticism of the Moyen-Orient and disappearing into it like Burton, Philby Snr, Richard Keys and Andy Grey. If I didn't have commitments, I'd like to have a house in Al Balad and do nothing but read the Glorious Quran all day. After I had claimed hafiz status I would learn Persian and immerse myself in the complete works of Rumi. Finally, on my 60th birthday, like the most noted miniaturists of the Sublime Porte, I would blind myself with long iron needle tipped with a peacock feather as my eyes would no longer be capable of perceiving the world as Allah (Subhanahu wa Ta'ala) made it.


    I met a lot of young Saudi undergraduates and noted that the radical pan-Arab socialism of Nasser, Afleq and al-Bitar is now moribund. To the extent that they had an ideology it was varying shades of consumerist nihilism and Salafist fundamentalism. Thank Allah (Subhanahu wa Ta'ala) who made the skies and the earth, they have zero interest in and no small contempt for pluralist liberal democracy.

    I did radio interview in MSA on life as a mature foreign student in Jeddah and was sweating like Therese Coffey on a Parkrun but got through it. As a result, I was asked to write a newspaper article on the same theme. Sensing a payday, I penned a few anodyne lines on student life followed by a polemic demanding an immediate and violent end to the State of Israel. This I submitted, with a frankly outrageous invoice that was paid promptly and without quibble. Journalism is fucking bollocks and anyone can do it.

    I hope you all lumped on Jorge Martin to win the MotoGP WC at 1.8 when I told you back in June he would win it. I won a substantial four figure sum then the c*nts at .com closed my account.

    Here is everything you missed.

    Gregg Wallace has shot his career in both feet. You should support Chiara, the English-accented Italian chef who lived as a child in Marrakesh, Morocco, somewhere near Saudi, at least language-wise, in the finals of Masterchef: the Professionals next week.

    ETA Chiara's chocolate, pig's blood and bacon dessert might be problematic for some religions and anyone who can read a menu.
    Chiara is a bit of a dark horse, she has come on on leaps and bounds. Certainly our favourite too.

    The idea of pigs blood in that pastry as well as the desert. Genius.

    Popbitch this week is a Gregg special. The man seems to have no filter and just seems to love talking about his sex life.
    Strong competition from the wee bald guy and the Inspector Closeau frenchie though. Should be a cracking final. If either went out last night don't tell me as I have not watched last knockout episode.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,495
    Dura_Ace said:

    On topic... the tories' dumpy diversity hire is on a tough wicket. She's just not quite committed enough to the right wing populist toss that is needed to see off the Fukkers. See how she reverted to the woke phraseology of 'mansplaining' when shit didn't go her way. She just can't fully commit to the kayfabe. Which is understandable as, at heart, she is a WEF adjacant globalist.

    The tories would have been better off with Jenners who, while being an amoral psychopath, is a lot better at faking enthusiasm for the sort of empirically incorrect opinions to which Carlsberg swillers hew.

    Welcome back Dura
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    edited December 6
    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.

    Well they’ve alienated their existing customers nearly as much as Bud Light did, although the concept car that’s never close to making production looks okay for something that will never make production.

    But who’s in the market for a $100k Jaguar EV, against Tesla and Porsche who have a massive head start in that market. The American 1/4 mile market is all in on the former, and the European lap time market all in on the latter. The CEO market is probably with Porsche too, or the Rolls Royce option.

    IIRC @rcs1000 has a Rivian, can they really spend more time at the dealer than a Range Rover?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,972
    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.

    When I worked at JLR, over a decade ago, they were saying the same thing about trying to get away from the perception of the brand being middle aged, middle class, men in flat caps and string backed gloves driving their cars around rural Britain on a Sunday.

    The X760 and X761 were supposed to move them away from that.

    However they brand it they are turd polishing and stuck with the legacy of when they were basically rebadged Fords.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.

    The majority hated it, I think. (Though a lot of that was just the anti-woke mob.)

    The concept does look pretty ridiculous.
    Why does an EV need a massive bonnet; why is the visibility designed to be crap; why is there so little interior space in something so big; what is the point of it ?
    It’s a car of a different era when you needed space for a large engine and people were smaller.

    Nowadays the reason for the height of the grill is pedestrian safety and the rest of the design is crumple zones
    Unless they're planning for 200mph collisions, it'a a bit much for a crumple zone.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,668
    edited December 6

    fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Badenoch is a lay for next PM.

    3 reasons:

    1) she may well not be LOTO by 2029
    2) if she survives that long it is quite likely that she won't be in charge of the largest party after the GE.
    3) it's increasingly likely that Labour will change PM before the next election.

    I think Farage is far too short too.

    I know its me being a hostage to fortune, but I have to ask why you think that Labour will change its rules and make it any easier to change Leaders when in Government when it was literally impossible while in Opposition under their current rules. And even if they did, who in the current line up of possible successors will be able to turn around Labour's current political and economic woes through any drastic policy/political spin on the main issues ?

    I also think that while Badenoch has an incredible tough job ahead of her as the Leader of the Opposition because of that incredble Labour result at the last GE, it is in some ways what will make her position more safe especially as because she is already turning out to be a far more formidable opponent for Farage and Reform than Starmer and the Labour party right now are and already the local by-elections and polling are reflecting that.

    Lets see how Farage manages being a constitueny MP and Leader in charge of Reform with five MPs for the next five years, will he like he did with UKIP see a never ending revolving door of key players who joined his party and then left disillusioned with the set up under his leadership?....

    imo Starmer will step down around the time of the next election, and probably before. If he does follow Harold Wilson by resigning, then the question of how hard it is for Labour to oust a leader is moot.

    Starmer is in his 60s and soon will be older than any previous Prime Minister since Jim Callaghan. He is not a natural politician but at heart a lawyer. He has no great project he wants to see enacted. And (shades of Wilson?) he is starting to misspeak. For these reasons, I expect him to retire.
    Misspeaking occurs when the truth is not forthcoming
    You think Starmer was lying when he called Louise Haigh the Justice Secretary the other day? Wilson resigned at 60 after his memory started to fail him. Starmer is already older.
    I would say it is remarkable we are even discussing this when he won a landslide a few months ago

    To be honest I think Starmer will last the full term barring unexpected health issues
    We're discussing it because there's nothing else domestically to talk about. The opposition is irrelevant whether it is polling high or low, and even the Labour numbers aren't really about Labour. It's all a barometer for how people feel right now - and the answer is "terrible".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    Even at current prices...

    Electric cars make up one in four sold in November
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz7j1yz1po
  • Met Office just issued a Red weather warning for us for tomorrow'

    Warning to keep away from the coast and sea

    I cannot remember a Red warning for us before
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,895
    Red warning of wind for the West and South Wales coasts, plus HPC I think. 03:00-11:00 overnight and tomorrow morning.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    Nigelb said:

    Even at current prices...

    Electric cars make up one in four sold in November
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz7j1yz1po

    Fleet cars. Will the market will be flooded with cheap second hand ones in the near future?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954

    That hasn't led to brain drain, it led to a multi-billion pound HQ in the centre of London and hiring 100s of the best PhDs. Now has it met that yet again the US reap the ultimate benefits of any potential ground breaking AI, that's a different story.

    The real question is that without Google's money / compute, DeepMind probably would have never have been able to scale. If it had been a US company it probably would e.g. Anthropic. I have heard several UK tech entrepreneurs saying you just can't get the VC money in the UK to scale fast and vast, everybody is very risk averse. And there is also a problem with mentality of the best and the brightest wanting to take risks themselves and set up a DeepMind.

    Its come back to a wider problem in the UK, not enough medium sized companies and ones that don't just sell out ASAP. The yanks are much more willing to go big or go home.

    There probably isn't a UK investor willing to spend enough to support a UK-only AI giant. Who is going to write a cheque for £1 billion just to buy enough servers? And that's at the low-end now for ~30k GPUs and infrastructure. Some companies are spending way more than that now, and some of the ambitious plans are properly bonkers.

    It takes a Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, or Google to fund this sort of thing. So you need to start with a £100 billion a year business to even get going.

    So the real issue isn't DeepMind being bought by Google. The issue is why isn't there a UK/EU Google, Microsoft, etc.
  • Nigelb said:

    Even at current prices...

    Electric cars make up one in four sold in November
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz7j1yz1po

    Huge subsidies though
  • Observer sale to Tortoise approved
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405

    Red warning of wind for the West and South Wales coasts, plus HPC I think. 03:00-11:00 overnight and tomorrow morning.

    St David's looks like its' going to get absolutely hammered judging by windy.com
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,877
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Germany really is becoming the sick man of Europe.

    VW workers are going on strike for 4 hours in 9 factories over the threat of closures.

    However if people are not buying their cars then what will they have to build ?


    German industrial production unexpectedly fell in October, owing mainly to declines in energy production and in the automotive industry, the federal statistics office said on Friday.

    Production was down by 1.0% in October from the previous month, the office said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/german-industrial-output-unexpectedly-falls-in-october/ar-AA1vnnuq?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=379165fe21944381d3f9eed745c9af24&ei=20

    Next year’s single biggest story in Germany is going to be the EU electric car mandates.

    There’s already ICE vehicle rationing going on in the UK, with the manufacturers and dealers refusing to sell cheap ICE cars to avoid potentially massive fines.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/04/petrol-car-numbers-uk-to-nearly-halve-in-a-decade/
    The Telegrunt has a new definition of "nearly halve" :smiley:

    On Wednesday, online marketplace Auto Trader said there were 18.7m petrol cars in use today but predicted this would now steadily fall to 11.1m by 2034.

    It's closer to a third than a half down. My internet is slow today like 1999 - I could read the piece before the paywall woke up.

    Whole piece: https://archive.is/6jHe4
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    Nigelb said:

    Even at current prices...

    Electric cars make up one in four sold in November
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz7j1yz1po

    Because that sales mix is now mandated by law, so the manufacturers and dealers are restricting sales of cars with engines to avoid massive fines.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/04/petrol-car-numbers-uk-to-nearly-halve-in-a-decade/
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,895

    Met Office just issued a Red weather warning for us for tomorrow'

    Warning to keep away from the coast and sea

    I cannot remember a Red warning for us before

    There was a red wind warning for Anglesey and parts of Gwynedd about 8-10 years ago. I remember kids being sent home early from my daughter's school so they could cross the Menai Strait before the bridges were closed.

    Met Office red warnings don't normally cover such a wide area. Met Éireann have also issued red wind warnings for the Atlantic coast from Clare to Donegal.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,857

    So if people don't mind me talking even more sh*t than usual:

    The water companies get a lot of (justifiable) bad press about sewage releases, often done at times of heavy rain. But the scale of the problem they have to tackle is quite amazing.

    In late November, London suffered 24 hours of heavy rain. Fortunately, the new Tideway tunnel, though incomplete, has started operation. In those 24 hours, it intercepted 850,000 tonnes of rain/sewage.

    850,000 tonnes.

    And even then, it was only half full.

    That figure is mind-bogglingly massive.

    https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/850000t-of-sewage-captured-by-thames-tideway-network-during-24-hour-storm-event-04-12-2024/

    This is interesting, but more interesting if we knew, for example, how often that sort of rain happened 20, 40, 60, 100 years ago. Water outfits probably notice that it rains in the UK; they have three big jobs: coping with it, coping with sewage and providing drinking water. These three tasks are right at the top of critical infrastructure of the nation. So it doesn't matter how massive it is, and it doesn't matter who owns its debts, it still has to be done.

    Multiply this by a few (defence, local government, health care etc) and there is no problem seeing that we are perhaps £100 billion pa short in current tax and spending plans. Good luck Labour.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    Mr. NorthWales, hope it's not too bad.

    I remember when we had red wind warning here. It was alarming, but luckily the house was almost entirely undamaged.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,141

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Badenoch is a lay for next PM.

    3 reasons:

    1) she may well not be LOTO by 2029
    2) if she survives that long it is quite likely that she won't be in charge of the largest party after the GE.
    3) it's increasingly likely that Labour will change PM before the next election.

    I think Farage is far too short too.

    I know its me being a hostage to fortune, but I have to ask why you think that Labour will change its rules and make it any easier to change Leaders when in Government when it was literally impossible while in Opposition under their current rules. And even if they did, who in the current line up of possible successors will be able to turn around Labour's current political and economic woes through any drastic policy/political spin on the main issues ?

    I also think that while Badenoch has an incredible tough job ahead of her as the Leader of the Opposition because of that incredble Labour result at the last GE, it is in some ways what will make her position more safe especially as because she is already turning out to be a far more formidable opponent for Farage and Reform than Starmer and the Labour party right now are and already the local by-elections and polling are reflecting that.

    Lets see how Farage manages being a constitueny MP and Leader in charge of Reform with five MPs for the next five years, will he like he did with UKIP see a never ending revolving door of key players who joined his party and then left disillusioned with the set up under his leadership?....

    imo Starmer will step down around the time of the next election, and probably before. If he does follow Harold Wilson by resigning, then the question of how hard it is for Labour to oust a leader is moot.

    Starmer is in his 60s and soon will be older than any previous Prime Minister since Jim Callaghan. He is not a natural politician but at heart a lawyer. He has no great project he wants to see enacted. And (shades of Wilson?) he is starting to misspeak. For these reasons, I expect him to retire.
    Starmer is 15 years younger than the current President and the President elect of the US.

    Now he may do a Hollande and step down and hope Labour finds a Macron like figure like Streeting to replace him but age wise he is still certainly young enough to do the job
    PB is weird on age. No reason sixtysomethings can't be effective leaders.
    Thatcher was PM half in her sixties for starters yes, Attlee and Macmillan were PM entirely in their sixties
    Mentally, the sixties were fine. As were the seventies. It's the eighties where things, primarily physically but, I fear, a little mentally, are going astray.

    A personal viewpoint.


    And welcome back Dura Ace!
    Thought initially you were talking about the decades in the last century.
    Still works..
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,807
    ...
    Dura_Ace said:

    On topic... the tories' dumpy diversity hire is on a tough wicket. She's just not quite committed enough to the right wing populist toss that is needed to see off the Fukkers. See how she reverted to the woke phraseology of 'mansplaining' when shit didn't go her way. She just can't fully commit to the kayfabe. Which is understandable as, at heart, she is a WEF adjacant globalist.

    The tories would have been better off with Jenners who, while being an amoral psychopath, is a lot better at faking enthusiasm for the sort of empirically incorrect opinions to which Carlsberg swillers hew.

    Whilst we won't agree on the efficacy or otherwise of populist toss - which is frankly just the centre-right politics of 15-30 years ago when Britain generally worked a lot better than it does now, politically this is correct. I said as much at the time, and I have been proven right in the event so far.

    She is also largely absent. Nobody has seen hide nor hair of her. Under circumstances where Labour being spectacularly shit means automatic victory for the Tories, that might be considered wise. When Nige is on the march, it is extremely foolish.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,760
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.

    Well they’ve alienated their existing customers nearly as much as Bud Light did, although the concept car that’s never close to making production looks okay for something that will never make production.
    There are almost no 'existing customers', that's the problem!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320

    fitalass said:

    F1: half a dozen rookies in first practice. Notable ones are Jack Doohan, taking Ocon's place at Alpine for the final race, and Arthur Leclerc, who joins his brother for Ferrari for the session.

    I am more interested in the current bust up between Verstappen and Russell, I predicted it two year ago, Verstappen is another Schumacher, a very talented but flawed driver who makes unnecessary stupid mistakes under pressure where the equally talented Lewis Hamilton does not in the right car.
    Ha, it's very handbags. A title battle between the pair would be nice and spicy. Not impossible, but perhaps unlikely given how close the top teams are. That said, both men are likely to benefit from being clear team leaders in 2025, unlike Ferrari and McLaren which don't have real de facto number 1 drivers.
    Its defintely very much dancing around handbags between the two right now, but what is quite clear is that while Verstappen has been very lucky over the last two years at Red Bull and he is now clearly very aware that he now faces some really tough opposition from Russell and Norris while he has Hamilton going over to Ferrari looking for that elusive eighth Championship win that will see him finally over taking his record of equalling Schumacher's record breaking seven wins before he retires.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,433
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.

    Well they’ve alienated their existing customers nearly as much as Bud Light did, although the concept car that’s never close to making production looks okay for something that will never make production.

    But who’s in the market for a $100k Jaguar EV, against Tesla and Porsche who have a massive head start in that market. The American 1/4 mile market is all in on the former, and the European lap time market all in on the latter. The CEO market is probably with Porsche too, or the Rolls Royce option.

    IIRC @rcs1000 has a Rivian, can they really spend more time at the dealer than a Range Rover?
    Which is why I thought those complaining about the rebrand utterly missed the point. Jaguar are a dying company. They need to fix that.

    This campaign has got people talking about them again. The concept car (which I think looked hideous in pink, okayish in blue, but will obviously never be produced in that form) has been shown a heck of a lot more than would have been the case except for that campaign.

    The way to stop them from dying is to try something different. It may not work, but neither will continuing to do the same old thing.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,141
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.

    Well they’ve alienated their existing customers nearly as much as Bud Light did, although the concept car that’s never close to making production looks okay for something that will never make production.
    There are almost no 'existing customers', that's the problem!
    I believe there are at least two current owners on PB.
    Whether that counts as existing I'll leave to others.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even at current prices...

    Electric cars make up one in four sold in November
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz7j1yz1po

    Because that sales mix is now mandated by law, so the manufacturers and dealers are restricting sales of cars with engines to avoid massive fines.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/04/petrol-car-numbers-uk-to-nearly-halve-in-a-decade/
    We're going to just end up with a shitload of old ICE cars being dragged out forever on the roads I think. Combined with the potholes and getting booked into a decent garage might be like finding a dentist free soon !
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114

    Observer sale to Tortoise approved

    The strike was well worth it then?

    I read Observer and I have to say it has been slowly falling away over the recent years. Seems to me worth a shot to give another media owner a chance with it. Guardian aren't taking it anywhere.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682

    fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Badenoch is a lay for next PM.

    3 reasons:

    1) she may well not be LOTO by 2029
    2) if she survives that long it is quite likely that she won't be in charge of the largest party after the GE.
    3) it's increasingly likely that Labour will change PM before the next election.

    I think Farage is far too short too.

    I know its me being a hostage to fortune, but I have to ask why you think that Labour will change its rules and make it any easier to change Leaders when in Government when it was literally impossible while in Opposition under their current rules. And even if they did, who in the current line up of possible successors will be able to turn around Labour's current political and economic woes through any drastic policy/political spin on the main issues ?

    I also think that while Badenoch has an incredible tough job ahead of her as the Leader of the Opposition because of that incredble Labour result at the last GE, it is in some ways what will make her position more safe especially as because she is already turning out to be a far more formidable opponent for Farage and Reform than Starmer and the Labour party right now are and already the local by-elections and polling are reflecting that.

    Lets see how Farage manages being a constitueny MP and Leader in charge of Reform with five MPs for the next five years, will he like he did with UKIP see a never ending revolving door of key players who joined his party and then left disillusioned with the set up under his leadership?....

    imo Starmer will step down around the time of the next election, and probably before. If he does follow Harold Wilson by resigning, then the question of how hard it is for Labour to oust a leader is moot.

    Starmer is in his 60s and soon will be older than any previous Prime Minister since Jim Callaghan. He is not a natural politician but at heart a lawyer. He has no great project he wants to see enacted. And (shades of Wilson?) he is starting to misspeak. For these reasons, I expect him to retire.
    Misspeaking occurs when the truth is not forthcoming
    You think Starmer was lying when he called Louise Haigh the Justice Secretary the other day? Wilson resigned at 60 after his memory started to fail him. Starmer is already older.
    I'm 52. I was the internal for a PhD viva on Tuesday and on Wednesday I realised that I have made a 'miss-speak' about something during the viva. Neither the candidate nor the external picked up on it (for differing reasons - the candidate didn't know and the external was probably too polite).

    We all make mistakes from time to time. When it happens too frequently it can be an issue - see Biden.

    Starmer is certainly prone to the odd gaffe, but he seems pretty much mentally on top of his game.*

    *Sadly I am not sure that he has much of a plan for the next 4.5 years, rather in the style of Gordon Brown. Brown strived all through Blairs PMship to get himself to No 10. When he got there the was nothing left. No ideas, not strategy, nothing.

    Starmer seems to have fixated on simply getting Labour into government. Big tick, job done. But what is the point of power if you don't know what to do with it?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    FYI - the UK set another wind generation record last night, with 21.9GW between 9.30pm and 10pm.

    I'm still interested in why there is a floor of 3GW for gas, even though we were exporting power and using it to refill pumped hydro. Is it a market or technical reason?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.

    Well they’ve alienated their existing customers nearly as much as Bud Light did, although the concept car that’s never close to making production looks okay for something that will never make production.
    There are almost no 'existing customers', that's the problem!
    You can look forward to the moment when one PBer sends an email of complaint to their local Jaguar dealership.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,857

    All this why I'm still staggered that Starner's government postponed the EV green investment plsn.

    That was an absolute key part of their campaigning promises, until the Tories started politicking about it.

    This is a very good article on EVs and a salutary warning to all car makers apart from Chinese

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-electric-shock-behind-europes-stuttering-ev-future-and-how-china-has-leapfrogged-major-car-exporting-nations-13267440
    Europe, including the UK, will either give up or become massively protectionist in response to this. I wonder whether a time buying possibility might be (perish the thought! surely not!) a few more years of life for the ICE industry in Europe?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.

    Well they’ve alienated their existing customers nearly as much as Bud Light did, although the concept car that’s never close to making production looks okay for something that will never make production.
    There are almost no 'existing customers', that's the problem!
    Well then sell the brand to someone like Eagle, who can keep the old name (and the old cars) running.

    Who is going for the electric “New Jag”, rather than the Porsche or the Tesla?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    Pulpstar said:

    Red warning of wind for the West and South Wales coasts, plus HPC I think. 03:00-11:00 overnight and tomorrow morning.

    St David's looks like its' going to get absolutely hammered judging by windy.com
    Wow. 70mph+
  • Any Italian EV's, on the hiruzonn?
    Stereoypical I know, but I'm imagining some absolutely beautifully designed lines and curves, that only get you to the nearest Trattoria, in range or longevity of batteries.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,877
    edited December 6
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.

    The majority hated it, I think. (Though a lot of that was just the anti-woke mob.)

    The concept does look pretty ridiculous.
    Why does an EV need a massive bonnet; why is the visibility designed to be crap; why is there so little interior space in something so big; what is the point of it ?
    It’s a car of a different era when you needed space for a large engine and people were smaller.

    Nowadays the reason for the height of the grill is pedestrian safety and the rest of the design is crumple zones
    My take on the Jag. It's not quota because I posted it before :wink:


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405
    edited December 6
    Eabhal said:

    FYI - the UK set another wind generation record last night, with 21.9GW between 9.30pm and 10pm.

    I'm still interested in why there is a floor of 3GW for gas, even though we were exporting power and using it to refill pumped hydro. Is it a market or technical reason?

    The wholesale price hit a low of £1.56/MwH at 1 AM which is surely below the gas input cost though ?

    If 3 GW of gas was being supplied at that time I'd have thought the price would be higher if it's based on gas (Most expensive input at that time)

    There might well be some further granularity in the price/mix which isn't picked up by Kate Morley. I'd like to know where she gets her figures from tbh - my webskills aren't good enough to deduce it from for instance viewing her page source.
  • "Horizon", that should say below, ofcourse.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,760
    edited December 6


    Starmer seems to have fixated on simply getting Labour into government. Big tick, job done. But what is the point of power if you don't know what to do with it?

    Starmer has performed pretty much to my low expectations. There is not a fantastic amount of policy difference between his administration and the tories that preceded it. A WFA there, an IHT here. Who gives a fuck? It's not exactly Father Lenin's "State and Revolution".

    However, one thing he undeniably is, is a grinder. Since the "Peak Boris" of the Hartlepool by-election (I can't remember who called it as Peak Boris on here, but chapeau) he relentlessly dragged the Labour, who are not always the most biddable congregation, into power with a handsome majority. Maybe he'll apply the same industrious obduracy to the business of government.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    algarkirk said:

    All this why I'm still staggered that Starner's government postponed the EV green investment plsn.

    That was an absolute key part of their campaigning promises, until the Tories started politicking about it.

    This is a very good article on EVs and a salutary warning to all car makers apart from Chinese

    https://news.sky.com/story/the-electric-shock-behind-europes-stuttering-ev-future-and-how-china-has-leapfrogged-major-car-exporting-nations-13267440
    Europe, including the UK, will either give up or become massively protectionist in response to this. I wonder whether a time buying possibility might be (perish the thought! surely not!) a few more years of life for the ICE industry in Europe?
    Europe is trying tariffs

    https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/eu-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles-impact.html
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 211
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even at current prices...

    Electric cars make up one in four sold in November
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz7j1yz1po

    Because that sales mix is now mandated by law, so the manufacturers and dealers are restricting sales of cars with engines to avoid massive fines.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/04/petrol-car-numbers-uk-to-nearly-halve-in-a-decade/
    There will be more new cars sold in the UK in 2024 than any of the preceding 4 years, so odd that "restricting sales of cars with engines" has had much (if any) effect.

    Vauxhalls EV sales are 36% of their total sales - miles more than the mandated target.

    The regime for 'fining' companies is however stupid (benefitting chinese makers).

    You just have to fact facts that EV car prices will continue to fall as volumes ramp up & the game is up for combustion engines in mass market.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942
    Pulpstar said:

    Eabhal said:

    FYI - the UK set another wind generation record last night, with 21.9GW between 9.30pm and 10pm.

    I'm still interested in why there is a floor of 3GW for gas, even though we were exporting power and using it to refill pumped hydro. Is it a market or technical reason?

    The wholesale price hit a low of £1.56/MwH at 1 AM which is surely below the gas input cost though ?

    If 3 GW of gas was being supplied at that time I'd have thought the price would be higher if it's based on gas (Most expensive input at that time)

    There might well be some further granularity in the price/mix which isn't picked up by Kate Morley.
    Yeah, that's why I thought it must be a technical thing with the power stations unable to fully close down. Over the past week prices have gone negative a few times, which is some fun economics. You'd have been paid to smelt aluminium, use an electric arc furnace, or charge your car.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,330
    Eabhal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.

    Well they’ve alienated their existing customers nearly as much as Bud Light did, although the concept car that’s never close to making production looks okay for something that will never make production.
    There are almost no 'existing customers', that's the problem!
    You can look forward to the moment when one PBer sends an email of complaint to their local Jaguar dealership.
    Back, surely. Not to mention worse. Given the number of complaints on here.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,694

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    fitalass said:

    Foxy said:

    I think Badenoch is a lay for next PM.

    3 reasons:

    1) she may well not be LOTO by 2029
    2) if she survives that long it is quite likely that she won't be in charge of the largest party after the GE.
    3) it's increasingly likely that Labour will change PM before the next election.

    I think Farage is far too short too.

    I know its me being a hostage to fortune, but I have to ask why you think that Labour will change its rules and make it any easier to change Leaders when in Government when it was literally impossible while in Opposition under their current rules. And even if they did, who in the current line up of possible successors will be able to turn around Labour's current political and economic woes through any drastic policy/political spin on the main issues ?

    I also think that while Badenoch has an incredible tough job ahead of her as the Leader of the Opposition because of that incredble Labour result at the last GE, it is in some ways what will make her position more safe especially as because she is already turning out to be a far more formidable opponent for Farage and Reform than Starmer and the Labour party right now are and already the local by-elections and polling are reflecting that.

    Lets see how Farage manages being a constitueny MP and Leader in charge of Reform with five MPs for the next five years, will he like he did with UKIP see a never ending revolving door of key players who joined his party and then left disillusioned with the set up under his leadership?....

    imo Starmer will step down around the time of the next election, and probably before. If he does follow Harold Wilson by resigning, then the question of how hard it is for Labour to oust a leader is moot.

    Starmer is in his 60s and soon will be older than any previous Prime Minister since Jim Callaghan. He is not a natural politician but at heart a lawyer. He has no great project he wants to see enacted. And (shades of Wilson?) he is starting to misspeak. For these reasons, I expect him to retire.
    Starmer is 15 years younger than the current President and the President elect of the US.

    Now he may do a Hollande and step down and hope Labour finds a Macron like figure like Streeting to replace him but age wise he is still certainly young enough to do the job
    PB is weird on age. No reason sixtysomethings can't be effective leaders.
    Thatcher was PM half in her sixties for starters yes, Attlee and Macmillan were PM entirely in their sixties
    Mentally, the sixties were fine. As were the seventies. It's the eighties where things, primarily physically but, I fear, a little mentally, are going astray.

    A personal viewpoint.


    And welcome back Dura Ace!
    Thought initially you were talking about the decades in the last century.
    Still works..
    Yes; looking back on my life the 1960's improved to be, personally, probably as good as it got. The end of the 70's weren't as good. However the first ten years of this century were pretty good..
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,488
    edited December 6
    Eabhal said:

    FYI - the UK set another wind generation record last night, with 21.9GW between 9.30pm and 10pm.

    I'm still interested in why there is a floor of 3GW for gas, even though we were exporting power and using it to refill pumped hydro. Is it a market or technical reason?

    Maybe power dsitribution issues?

    Perhaps there isn't sufficient electricity transport capacity to get all that wind power to UK population centres and it gets exported instead?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,330
    MattW said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.

    The majority hated it, I think. (Though a lot of that was just the anti-woke mob.)

    The concept does look pretty ridiculous.
    Why does an EV need a massive bonnet; why is the visibility designed to be crap; why is there so little interior space in something so big; what is the point of it ?
    It’s a car of a different era when you needed space for a large engine and people were smaller.

    Nowadays the reason for the height of the grill is pedestrian safety and the rest of the design is crumple zones
    My take on the Jag. It's not quota because I posted it before :wink:


    "... people were smaller." That again. Carrying arouind their own crumple zones?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,668
    Eabhal said:

    FYI - the UK set another wind generation record last night, with 21.9GW between 9.30pm and 10pm.

    I'm still interested in why there is a floor of 3GW for gas, even though we were exporting power and using it to refill pumped hydro. Is it a market or technical reason?

    I'm always surprised that our generation is up on "notably windy days". Wind farms are designed to operate optimally around a knee in their power curve - and notably windy days are in the "we just have to turn it off" part of that curve, rather than the knee. Maybe it is because there are longer periods at the top end of the knee, so when you integrate that it more than offsets the "shutting it down because it is too windy" bits.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    edited December 6
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Even at current prices...

    Electric cars make up one in four sold in November
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz7j1yz1po

    Because that sales mix is now mandated by law, so the manufacturers and dealers are restricting sales of cars with engines to avoid massive fines.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/04/petrol-car-numbers-uk-to-nearly-halve-in-a-decade/
    We're going to just end up with a shitload of old ICE cars being dragged out forever on the roads I think. Combined with the potholes and getting booked into a decent garage might be like finding a dentist free soon !
    Yes I’ve been saying this for years.

    Peak car was between about 2007 and 2012, when engines were naturally aspirated and mostly understressed, and will pretty much run forever so long as service parts are available. Good examples of these cars will appreciate and be maintained for a long time.

    From the politics side, I’d expect governments to try and make driving old ICE cars a lot more expensive, but the political capital required is massive.

    Discaimer: my current car is a 20-year-old Mercedes E500 with a V8 in it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,394
    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Rivian have finally knocked Jeep off their throne of the least reliable new car you can buy.

    https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

    I haven't had time to read the pb.com gammonerati's reaction to the Jaguar shit yet but I am expecting some spectacularly hot and wrong takes.

    When I worked at JLR, over a decade ago, they were saying the same thing about trying to get away from the perception of the brand being middle aged, middle class, men in flat caps and string backed gloves driving their cars around rural Britain on a Sunday.

    The X760 and X761 were supposed to move them away from that.

    However they brand it they are turd polishing and stuck with the legacy of when they were basically rebadged Fords.
    String-backed driving gloves? Time to enjoy this 1963 film of the Institute of Advanced Motoring showing how to overtake in a Jaguar. Flash, flash, beep, beep, V-signs, and a politics joke for relevance.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lq1caGu0Hs&t=467s
This discussion has been closed.