Tomorrow will almost certainly see 700,000 claimed dead or maimed Russian* combatants for the 3 day Special Military operation into Ukraine.
Also, over 9,000 tanks, over 18,500 armoured fighting vehicles, over 20,000 artillery systems, over 1,200 MLRS and nearly 1,000 anti-aircraft systems.
Not to mention the Black Sea Fleet gone as an effective fighting force.
Putin's strategy has clearly been to throw all he could into Ukraine until his army was dead on its feet. In the expectation that he only had to stay in the game until another Trump victory. When Trump would declare him the winner (he has form on declaring dodgy wins) and take US support off the table.
If Harris wins, it is hard to see how Putin continues. He doesn't have the manpower or the kit to grind on until some unspecified future point.
* OK, maybe padded out by a few North Koreans in Russian uniforms.
Mr. Mark, not sure you're right to assume Harris will provide support for Ukraine in sufficient or speedy enough a manner. She's certainly better for the country than Trump, though.
A poll in Iowa that has unexpectedly put Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in what was previously expected to be a safe state for the Republicans has sent shockwaves through America’s poll-watchers......
The Selzer poll has Harris over Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. A September poll showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris and a June survey showed him with an 18-point lead over then-candidate Joe Biden.
Before people dismiss this as an outlier, I believe Selzer polls only in Iowa and is known for its excellent record of accuracy, particularly in estimating Trump's previous performances. In the last three presidential elections, it has got the winning margin in Iowa correct to within one or twp points.
A poll in Iowa that has unexpectedly put Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in what was previously expected to be a safe state for the Republicans has sent shockwaves through America’s poll-watchers......
The Selzer poll has Harris over Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. A September poll showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris and a June survey showed him with an 18-point lead over then-candidate Joe Biden.
A 21% switch pretty much puts the nail in the coffin of anyone thinking keeping Sleepy Joe as the candidate was wise.
Trump would have been winning some crazy unlikely states.
I might well be wrong, but I don't think the September and June polls mentioned were also by Selzer, so the methodologies will be different, and direct comparisons harder?
I think June was still an Iowa poll for the Des Moines Register.
Tomorrow will almost certainly see 700,000 claimed dead or maimed Russian* combatants for the 3 day Special Military operation into Ukraine.
Also, over 9,000 tanks, over 18,500 armoured fighting vehicles, over 20,000 artillery systems, over 1,200 MLRS and nearly 1,000 anti-aircraft systems.
Not to mention the Black Sea Fleet gone as an effective fighting force.
Putin's strategy has clearly been to throw all he could into Ukraine until his army was dead on its feet. In the expectation that he only had to stay in the game until another Trump victory. When Trump would declare him the winner (he has form on declaring dodgy wins) and take US support off the table.
If Harris wins, it is hard to see how Putin continues. He doesn't have the manpower or the kit to grind on until some unspecified future point.
* OK, maybe padded out by a few North Koreans in Russian uniforms.
The war is an epic tragedy for Russia as well as Ukraine.
What a waste of lives, treasure and the environment. Putin will go down in history as the worst Russian leader since Stalin.
A poll in Iowa that has unexpectedly put Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in what was previously expected to be a safe state for the Republicans has sent shockwaves through America’s poll-watchers......
The Selzer poll has Harris over Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. A September poll showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris and a June survey showed him with an 18-point lead over then-candidate Joe Biden.
Mr. Mark, not sure you're right to assume Harris will provide support for Ukraine in sufficient or speedy enough a manner. She's certainly better for the country than Trump, though.
She has made much more positive noises about supporting Ukraine during the campaign.
There are also suggestions that no longer giving a shit, Biden will let Ukraine off the leash until the inauguration - allowing them to do what they want by way of using US munitions within Russia.
Dr. Foxy, also worth considering the broader implications. Russia and North Korea have a defence pact. While munitions, and men, have flowed one way, Russian military tech has flowed the other. There are now more serious fears that at some point in the next few years Kim Jong-Un might attack South Korea.
A poll in Iowa that has unexpectedly put Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in what was previously expected to be a safe state for the Republicans has sent shockwaves through America’s poll-watchers......
The Selzer poll has Harris over Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. A September poll showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris and a June survey showed him with an 18-point lead over then-candidate Joe Biden.
Tomorrow will almost certainly see 700,000 claimed dead or maimed Russian* combatants for the 3 day Special Military operation into Ukraine.
Also, over 9,000 tanks, over 18,500 armoured fighting vehicles, over 20,000 artillery systems, over 1,200 MLRS and nearly 1,000 anti-aircraft systems.
Not to mention the Black Sea Fleet gone as an effective fighting force.
Putin's strategy has clearly been to throw all he could into Ukraine until his army was dead on its feet. In the expectation that he only had to stay in the game until another Trump victory. When Trump would declare him the winner (he has form on declaring dodgy wins) and take US support off the table.
If Harris wins, it is hard to see how Putin continues. He doesn't have the manpower or the kit to grind on until some unspecified future point.
* OK, maybe padded out by a few North Koreans in Russian uniforms.
The war is an epic tragedy for Russia as well as Ukraine.
What a waste of lives, treasure and the environment. Putin will go down in history as the worst Russian leader since Stalin.
Which is a bad sign IMO. Many Russians still worship Stalin.
The Russian people need to see Putin as far lower than Stalin; beneath contempt.
Companies finally realising that bringing explicit racism to the office doesn’t engender a nicer working environment, in fact quite the opposite.
American conservative commentator Matt Walsh has just released a documentary, called “Am I Racist?”, in which he goes undercover to look at the whole DEI industry and how they operate. It’s basically one large grift for selling expensive training courses that serves only to increase divisiveness. https://www.dailywire.com/videos/am-i-racist#
I think the turning point was the Bud Light backlash, which finally showed companies that this stuff can upset their customers and affect the bottom line.
Interestingly she never mentions Trump in that ad . It’s a very positive ad overall which will be a world away from the likely hateful divisive Trump one .
There is method in Trump's madness, in addition to the madness (and badness).
Purpose is to DEPRESS voter turnout, in particular by women (but NOT just) which is one of the well-known affects of negative campaigning. Of course DJT is also trying to BOOST turnout among infrequently-voting wackjobs of his ilk - but that a separate strategy, and Trump/Vance rhetoric is designed to appeal to them.
In contrast, Harris needs HIGHER turnout in general, and her positivity is also strategic.
And shows the lie her campaign is nothing but negative anti Trump stuff.
There is lots of that, but it's not just that, anyone claiming so hasn't followed things.
That Selzer poll for the Des Moines Register is genuinely jaw dropping stuff. Wow.
I'm too pessimistic to believe it, but at least one org isn't herding!
If it is correct - and that's a massive 'if,' but let's consider this - you wonder if there might be a major surprise in Missouri.
That's one I'd thought of as a possible target early on - Obama nearly took it in 2008 - but assumed from the belief the race was very close would be out of reach for Harris.
It's also got an abortion ballot...and the Republican Senate candidate has been leading the drive to enforce Dobbs v Jackson.
Beeb keep referring to Kemi as the "early favourite" in the Tory leadership race
I know they're journalists so don't need to understand what they're talking about, but is it actually true?
Wasn't Kemi always considered favourite iff she made it to the membership, so nobody thought she'd make it past the MPs?
IIRC she only became the betting favourite when it got to the final two
Badenoch was fav before the contest started.
Then, when the six candidates declared and Jenrick got off to a flying start he took over as favourite when punters doubted Badenoch would make it through the MP round
Then she went to third favourite after Conference due to Cleverly's speech
Then she became favourite again when she went through to the members vote following Cleverly's surprise exit (due, it seems, to 4 or 5 MPs lending votes to Jenrick in an attempt to knock her out).
A poll in Iowa that has unexpectedly put Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in what was previously expected to be a safe state for the Republicans has sent shockwaves through America’s poll-watchers......
The Selzer poll has Harris over Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. A September poll showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris and a June survey showed him with an 18-point lead over then-candidate Joe Biden.
A 21% switch pretty much puts the nail in the coffin of anyone thinking keeping Sleepy Joe as the candidate was wise.
Trump would have been winning some crazy unlikely states.
I might well be wrong, but I don't think the September and June polls mentioned were also by Selzer, so the methodologies will be different, and direct comparisons harder?
I think June was still an Iowa poll for the Des Moines Register.
The September poll was also by Selzer according to fivethirtyeight.
A couple of points from a very short BBC interview with Ann Selzer. This poll found a large lead for Harris among women, particularly older women. Kennedy is on the ballot in Iowa, and was therefore included in the poll, getting 3%. So implications for the rest of the country would need to take that into account.
But given that fivethirtyeight's polling average currently shows an 8-point lead, if this poll is anything like accurate it suggests a big error in the average in Trump's favour.
Tomorrow will almost certainly see 700,000 claimed dead or maimed Russian* combatants for the 3 day Special Military operation into Ukraine.
Also, over 9,000 tanks, over 18,500 armoured fighting vehicles, over 20,000 artillery systems, over 1,200 MLRS and nearly 1,000 anti-aircraft systems.
Not to mention the Black Sea Fleet gone as an effective fighting force.
Putin's strategy has clearly been to throw all he could into Ukraine until his army was dead on its feet. In the expectation that he only had to stay in the game until another Trump victory. When Trump would declare him the winner (he has form on declaring dodgy wins) and take US support off the table.
If Harris wins, it is hard to see how Putin continues. He doesn't have the manpower or the kit to grind on until some unspecified future point.
* OK, maybe padded out by a few North Koreans in Russian uniforms.
The war is an epic tragedy for Russia as well as Ukraine.
What a waste of lives, treasure and the environment. Putin will go down in history as the worst Russian leader since Stalin.
Which is a bad sign IMO. Many Russians still worship Stalin.
The Russian people need to see Putin as far lower than Stalin; beneath contempt.
In 2018 I was in Moscow for the World Cup, and one day we were sightseeing in Red Square. The crowds parted as a parade of mostly elderly and shabbily dressed Stalinists marched through carrying portraits of Stalin and Communist banners to lay flowers on Stalin's grave located behind Lenin's mausoleum. It was a weird glimpse of of a different world view.
The Russian obsession with WW2 seems to have grown over recent years and is deeply embedded in how they see themselves as a people, even amongst those treated very badly by Stalin.
Trying to be objective - which, on Trump, I admit I find difficult - it is hard to see how his campaign has added voters, but easy to imagine it has turned off significant portions of his soft vote.
Trump has a problem with women. Not just young voters, but across all age ranges. His comment "whether the women like it or not, I'm going to protect them" may prove to have crystallized Harris voters even more than the comments on Puerto Rico. Having an adjudicated sex offender who grabs women by the pussy controlling women's bodies? Nah.
Abortion is a huge vote driver in this election. It seems doubtless that Republicans are on the wrong side of this line to the tune of 70:30 nationally. It will be fascinating to see how the abortion propositions in various states ties in with a surprisingly high Harris vote.
Especially Florida.
The other driver is the risk to democracy. 6th January will influence votes on Tuesday.
Harris will have shown she is the no risk candidate.
Jan 6th should have had way more impact than it has. It's low single digits it feels like among GOP who care about it.
Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
I don't believe Harris will win Iowa - although the Des Moines Register has a pretty good polling record. But I do believe the poll is evidence that Harris is outperforming with white voters in the Midwest, and inversely, is doing worse with black and Hispanic voters.
The Sun Belt is going to be bloodbath for Kam - Trump will sweep the lot for 269, so even with Penn and Mich and whisky, Kam is short.
The moment Trump snicks a Rusty, game over.
You can’t count.
Okay. This is my second attempt at counting. Sunbelt give Trump 268. Penn and Mich and whisky Gives Kam 281. Is that better?
What is your definition of "Sun Belt"?
Somewhere which leaves rust feeling warm.
The place brits and Germans compete for a sun bed on holiday.
If Trump loses, who will go next? Will Trump have another go?
DeSantis and Haley would be frontrunners if he loses, Vance if he wins as incumbent VP
Haley is the Tugendhat of the Republicans.
Indeed, DeSantis the Badenoch and Vance the Jenrick and Trump a hybrid of Boris and Farage and Harris a hybrid of Diane Abbott and Rayner and Starmer a less senile Biden
OK, Nevada. Let's predict the votes based on the change in a thing since 2020.
2020 Results * 2020 results were DEM 50.06%, REP 47.67%, which are rebased to DEM 51.22% REP 48.78% to total to 100% * DEMVOTE2024 = DEMVOTE2020*(thing now)/(thing then) * REPVOTE2024 = REPVOTE2020*(thing now)/(thing then)
Uniform State Swing: (based on state poll then vs state poll now) * DEM 48.22%, REP 51.95%, REP WINS
Registration: (based on registration numbers then vs registration numbers now) * DEM 48.98%, REP 51.02%, REP WINS
Guys, I'm sorry, but I don't see her winning this. Uniform swing, early votes and registration changes all indicate that Trump will win Nevada. Happy to hear counterargument but if it's "there will be a late swing" I will say bad words.
How are you accounting for those registered independent ?
I'm not.
I need a brutal sieve. I don't have the time nor the tech to do anything but something brutal. I don't need to know the exact numbers, just which of DEM and REP are bigger. So it becomes as simple as:
Too brutal. There are more voters registered independent that either Rep or Dem, in Nevada. You can’t really ignore how they might break - and that’s at least fairly likely to decade the outcome.
Fair enough. So, in your judgement who is going to win Nevada: Dem or Rep?
No strong conviction - it’s a coin flip, IMO. I’m pretty confident the independents will break for Harris, thoigh.
I'm on the ground in Nevada. I've been reading Ralston's blog all week (as has anyone who is considering betting).
The numbers are not good for the Democrats. However, and it's a big however, there are two changes that have happened since 2020.
First, voter registration is now automatic with Drivers License renewal. No-one knows what this means in terms of the predictive nature of early votes in prior elections.
Secondly, there has continued to be a large influx from California. Reno and Vegas property prices are still much cheaper than the Bay Area or LA. Remote work has been a thing that has enabled younger college-educated tech workers to move to Nevada. No one knows what this means.
To favour Trump, the Republicans did win the state governor race in 2022. But they didn't make any headway in the state house and lost the other statewide offices, the senate race and the house districts.
To favour Harris, there is an abortion referendum on the ballot (question 6). Democrats are running hard on this. I could see this juicing the women vote, even those that are registered Republican.
In short, as Ralston says, nobody knows and anybody who thinks they know doesn't. I certainly don't. I could easily see a women-led Harris win by 5. Or a Latino swing to a Trump win by 5.
So I'll finish with the only thing I can personally add, which is in my neighbourhood I see no Trump signs this year. In 2020 they were in about 5 gardens in my street. There are no Harris signs, but there were no Biden signs either.
Along the roads I see more Trump signs than Harris signs, but again less than in 2020. There are still people driving around with Trump flags, but less than in 2020.
Finally, the Trump signs show all the signs of leaning heavily into crazy. One official one says "Trump was right about EVERYTHING". As a friend remarked to me, "Inject bleach if you agree". Another says "TRUMP VANCE MUSK KENNEDY" which is not the positive message they think it is. I'd say these signs, if anything, are more motivating for people to vote Harris because like everything Trump, they go too far.
I guess we'll find out in 72 hours!
On the intrastate moves I’ve spent a lot of time in Orange County over the years.
Many people I know - mainly Republicans - have talked about moving out of California because of the cost of living. But they talk about Texas and occasionally Tennessee. (Although I know one democrat who moved to Austin).
It’s purely anecdotal but that might suggest a tendency for liberals to move to more liberal states (the Texan democrats I know have moved to Colorado)
A poll in Iowa that has unexpectedly put Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in what was previously expected to be a safe state for the Republicans has sent shockwaves through America’s poll-watchers......
The Selzer poll has Harris over Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. A September poll showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris and a June survey showed him with an 18-point lead over then-candidate Joe Biden.
A 21% switch pretty much puts the nail in the coffin of anyone thinking keeping Sleepy Joe as the candidate was wise.
Trump would have been winning some crazy unlikely states.
I might well be wrong, but I don't think the September and June polls mentioned were also by Selzer, so the methodologies will be different, and direct comparisons harder?
I think June was still an Iowa poll for the Des Moines Register.
The September poll was also by Selzer according to fivethirtyeight.
A couple of points from a very short BBC interview with Ann Selzer. This poll found a large lead for Harris among women, particularly older women. Kennedy is on the ballot in Iowa, and was therefore included in the poll, getting 3%. So implications for the rest of the country would need to take that into account.
But given that fivethirtyeight's polling average currently shows an 8-point lead, if this poll is anything like accurate it suggests a big error in the average in Trump's favour.
Kennedy being on the ballot is a potential banana skin for both pollsters and voters. He withdrew too late, and Democrats sued in several States, including marginals Michigan and Wisconsin, to keep his name on the ballot. If he gets anything like 3% that could swing the election.
Comments
https://x.com/drmatthewsweet/status/1852962293518110750?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Also, over 9,000 tanks, over 18,500 armoured fighting vehicles, over 20,000 artillery systems, over 1,200 MLRS and nearly 1,000 anti-aircraft systems.
Not to mention the Black Sea Fleet gone as an effective fighting force.
Putin's strategy has clearly been to throw all he could into Ukraine until his army was dead on its feet. In the expectation that he only had to stay in the game until another Trump victory. When Trump would declare him the winner (he has form on declaring dodgy wins) and take US support off the table.
If Harris wins, it is hard to see how Putin continues. He doesn't have the manpower or the kit to grind on until some unspecified future point.
* OK, maybe padded out by a few North Koreans in Russian uniforms.
On Twix there are reports of a man's decapitated head found on Cowgate in Edinburgh. Disturbing enough.
What is mor disturbing are the people picking it up, perhaps thinking it was a Halloween prank...
He and Ashwin are sensibly going for it in singles.
Edit - well, they were until I put the mockers on Ashwin, but my original point stands!
What a waste of lives, treasure and the environment. Putin will go down in history as the worst Russian leader since Stalin.
There are also suggestions that no longer giving a shit, Biden will let Ukraine off the leash until the inauguration - allowing them to do what they want by way of using US munitions within Russia.
Ditto Israel with Iran.
The Russian people need to see Putin as far lower than Stalin; beneath contempt.
I know they're journalists so don't need to understand what they're talking about, but is it actually true?
Wasn't Kemi always considered favourite iff she made it to the membership, so nobody thought she'd make it past the MPs?
IIRC she only became the betting favourite when it got to the final two
New Zealand 3-0.
What an achievement. Especially for a new captain playing without their best batsman.
Her poll is seeing something with a certain demographic which others haven’t to that degree .
There’s a host of new polls coming out today .
Morning Consult dropped overnight.
National
Harris 49
Trump 47
The swing state polling was all within the MOE but was better news for Trump overall .
The real market mover today from the polls we know are coming out .
NYT/Siena drops at 10.00 am our time . They have all the 7 swing states .
There’s also national polls from ABC and NBC . It’s not been confirmed yet if they will also have swing state polling .
American conservative commentator Matt Walsh has just released a documentary, called “Am I Racist?”, in which he goes undercover to look at the whole DEI industry and how they operate. It’s basically one large grift for selling expensive training courses that serves only to increase divisiveness. https://www.dailywire.com/videos/am-i-racist#
I think the turning point was the Bud Light backlash, which finally showed companies that this stuff can upset their customers and affect the bottom line.
NEW THREAD
There is lots of that, but it's not just that, anyone claiming so hasn't followed things.
That's one I'd thought of as a possible target early on - Obama nearly took it in 2008 - but assumed from the belief the race was very close would be out of reach for Harris.
It's also got an abortion ballot...and the Republican Senate candidate has been leading the drive to enforce Dobbs v Jackson.
Badenoch was fav before the contest started.
Then, when the six candidates declared and Jenrick got off to a flying start he took over as favourite when punters doubted Badenoch would make it through the MP round
Then she went to third favourite after Conference due to Cleverly's speech
Then she became favourite again when she went through to the members vote following Cleverly's surprise exit (due, it seems, to 4 or 5 MPs lending votes to Jenrick in an attempt to knock her out).
A couple of points from a very short BBC interview with Ann Selzer. This poll found a large lead for Harris among women, particularly older women. Kennedy is on the ballot in Iowa, and was therefore included in the poll, getting 3%. So implications for the rest of the country would need to take that into account.
But given that fivethirtyeight's polling average currently shows an 8-point lead, if this poll is anything like accurate it suggests a big error in the average in Trump's favour.
Hopefully people are prepared.
The Russian obsession with WW2 seems to have grown over recent years and is deeply embedded in how they see themselves as a people, even amongst those treated very badly by Stalin.
Many people I know - mainly Republicans - have talked about moving out of California because of the cost of living. But they talk about Texas and occasionally Tennessee. (Although I know one democrat who moved to Austin).
It’s purely anecdotal but that might suggest a tendency for liberals to move to more liberal states (the Texan democrats I know have moved to Colorado)
Kennedy himself is now telling people not to vote for him! https://x.com/robertkennedyjr/status/1851406360140759316
Just because someone opposes the ideology and political agenda of DEI does not mean someone is opposed to being fair, and accommodating of others.
I rest my case.