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There is no happy ending for Bobby J – politicalbetting.com

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  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    ...

    HYUFD said:
    Kaplan had Harris 5 points ahead in August - Harris 49% - Trump 44%. Trump has had a good campaign to turn it around.

    https://kaplanstrategies.com/2024/08/25/national-poll/
    He may well win, and win the College comfortably. However his campaign has been anything but good. Any other GOP candidate perhaps in the vein of Reagan would have won with a landslide.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,275
    NEW: Keir Starmer will declare the small boats crisis a 'national security' threat next week and will launch a new Organised Immigration Crime Intelligence Unit

    [
    @kateferguson4
    ]
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1852813065714049042
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Jonathan said:

    Driver said:

    Jonathan said:

    Driver said:

    Jonathan said:

    Driver said:

    Jonathan said:

    Driver said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories need to enter the next election as the clear challengers, which means defeating Reform first.

    In what world do the Tories not enter the next election as clear challengers?

    I fear that in your hurry to give the Tories what you think of as bad advice you have strayed into an absurdity.
    Reform want to surpass the Tories. In 2024 they were only a few percentage points behind. It would take much if Badenoch tanks. And even if she doesn’t with only 120 seats in FPTP it is folly to ignored Reform.
    23.7 vs 14.3 is "only a few percentage points"?

    And can you remind me of the current makeup of Reform's target seats?
    So complacent. The SDP had zero % of the vote in 79 and nearly came second in 83. The Tories are more vulnerable than they have ever been. They lost Horsham and Chichester last time. Yet that is ignored. Weird.
    You could try responding to the points you're quoting rather than deflecting. You might find it fun.
    Eh? The gap is less than 10%, which is mind blowing. The Reform seats are irrelevant, it’s the seats they denied the Tories (and might continue to deny the Tories) that matter. I would say that the Tories only won 120 seats might bother them strategically.
    Was.

    At the Tories' lowest ebb.
    Sometimes parties lose seats or make no progress in the first election after defeats. 1983, 2015, 2001. Don’t assume that 2024 was the lowest ebb.
    It probably will be.

    However awful the Tories are Labour are doing their work for them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824
    HYUFD said:

    NEW: Keir Starmer will declare the small boats crisis a 'national security' threat next week and will launch a new Organised Immigration Crime Intelligence Unit

    [
    @kateferguson4
    ]
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1852813065714049042

    A bit late?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    RobD said:

    I don't understand the idea the Royal Family should live like the rest of us. That would mean they weren't Royal.

    I can understand (although on a pragmatic basis disagree with) republicanism. But not that.

    Yes, it really is hard to get worked up about the fact that the King is a landowner and charges rent.
    It's the kind of focus that can distract and undermine from the good arguments for Republicanism. It's not a super hard case to make after all.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    ...

    HYUFD said:
    Kaplan had Harris 5 points ahead in August - Harris 49% - Trump 44%. Trump has had a good campaign to turn it around.

    https://kaplanstrategies.com/2024/08/25/national-poll/
    He may well win, and win the College comfortably. However his campaign has been anything but good. Any other GOP candidate perhaps in the vein of Reagan would have won with a landslide.
    If the GOP candidate wasn't Trump they would be winning by a landslide, you don't need a Reagan - Dan Quayle would have won this time round...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Andy_JS said:

    Amusing how many Labour supporters on Twitter are saying Starmer is going to be happier with Kemi as leader. Most of them must know this isn't true. A few may genuinely believe it.

    It's standard practice: you picked the worst choice, laugh out loud etc.

    They would have said it with any of the candidates, just with different spins on it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Labour’s support in Scotland has plunged in the wake of Rachel Reeves’s budget, which voters believe will hit them in their pockets and damage the country, a new poll has found.

    Backing for Anas Sarwar’s party has dropped to such an extent that it would be virtually impossible for him to form a Scottish government if the results were replicated at the Holyrood 2026 election.

    The poll by Norstat, the first conducted in Scotland since the chancellor unveiled her tax and spending plans, suggested that while voters felt warmly about the budget’s main policies, they felt that they would lose out overall.

    The research put support for Labour in Scottish parliamentary constituencies at 23 per cent, a drop of seven points since the last survey in August and the lowest since Nicola Sturgeon quit as first minister last March. Backing for Scottish Labour on the more proportional regional list fell by six points to 22 per cent.

    Analysis by Sir John Curtice, the polling expert and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, found this would leave Labour with 29 MSPs, an increase of seven on its current level.

    The SNP has failed to capitalise on Labour’s woes — remaining unchanged on 33 per cent for constituency votes and increasing backing by only one point to 29 per cent on the regional list — but its projected return of 51 MSPs would almost certainly see John Swinney remain first minister despite losing 13 seats compared with the 2021 election.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-labour-popularity-poll-rachel-reeves-budget-2024-5jmhqwjkr

    It's Scotland, so a real longshot,but one wonders what the upper limits of how well the SCons might do up there are.
    When was the last time we had a party leader with a name as ostentatiously Scottish as Badenoch?
    2016?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    Barnesian said:

    Just received a personal plea to join Reform.


    It almost makes one want to sign up to the Conservative Party, just to piss TeamTice off!
    You'd be very welcome.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798

    MikeL said:

    The point is almost none of these duties are actually needed.

    Suppose Harry hadn't gone off to the US. He would have been performing all kinds of duties - but as he's not here he hasn't - and what effect has it had on the country? None.

    Suppose Andrew hadn't been banished. Ditto as above - again none of these duties have happened - again no impact on anyone.

    Kate has done almost no duties this year (for entirely understandable reasons) - but again there's been no impact on anyone - other than tabloid editors who've had to find something else to go on their front pages.

    The reality is that the whole thing could be scaled back by at least 90% - back to core things like Opening Parliament, Remembrance Day etc. All the rest could be dumped and huge savings made.

    I thought Charles was supposed to be slimming it all down? Whatever happened to that?
    He’s at least trying to slim it down by losing a big fat friend of Epstein.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Does MAGA die with Trump (like Corbyn) or do they try and keep it going?

    Corbyn has not died yet, and I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t want to die with Trump.
    Corbyn's supporters will be using his name for decades I suspect.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824

    Barnesian said:

    Just received a personal plea to join Reform.


    It almost makes one want to sign up to the Conservative Party, just to piss TeamTice off!
    You'd be very welcome.
    In the tent, pissing in?
  • TresTres Posts: 2,686

    Labour’s support in Scotland has plunged in the wake of Rachel Reeves’s budget, which voters believe will hit them in their pockets and damage the country, a new poll has found.

    Backing for Anas Sarwar’s party has dropped to such an extent that it would be virtually impossible for him to form a Scottish government if the results were replicated at the Holyrood 2026 election.

    The poll by Norstat, the first conducted in Scotland since the chancellor unveiled her tax and spending plans, suggested that while voters felt warmly about the budget’s main policies, they felt that they would lose out overall.

    The research put support for Labour in Scottish parliamentary constituencies at 23 per cent, a drop of seven points since the last survey in August and the lowest since Nicola Sturgeon quit as first minister last March. Backing for Scottish Labour on the more proportional regional list fell by six points to 22 per cent.

    Analysis by Sir John Curtice, the polling expert and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, found this would leave Labour with 29 MSPs, an increase of seven on its current level.

    The SNP has failed to capitalise on Labour’s woes — remaining unchanged on 33 per cent for constituency votes and increasing backing by only one point to 29 per cent on the regional list — but its projected return of 51 MSPs would almost certainly see John Swinney remain first minister despite losing 13 seats compared with the 2021 election.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-labour-popularity-poll-rachel-reeves-budget-2024-5jmhqwjkr

    It's Scotland, so a real longshot,but one wonders what the upper limits of how well the SCons might do up there are.
    When was the last time we had a party leader with a name as ostentatiously Scottish as Badenoch?
    Cameron?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    RobD said:

    I don't understand the idea the Royal Family should live like the rest of us. That would mean they weren't Royal.

    I can understand (although on a pragmatic basis disagree with) republicanism. But not that.

    Yes, it really is hard to get worked up about the fact that the King is a landowner and charges rent.
    More to the point, he has to. The only income he now gets is the commercial income he is allowed to retain from his estates. It’s instead of a public sector payment. George Osborne’s political choice. (Yes I know this the Duchy and not the Crown Estate, but the same principle).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    HYUFD said:

    NEW: Keir Starmer will declare the small boats crisis a 'national security' threat next week and will launch a new Organised Immigration Crime Intelligence Unit

    [
    @kateferguson4
    ]
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1852813065714049042

    Excellent. That will have the people smugglers quaking in their boots.

    After the Budget I'm sure he can stretch to giving each member of staff a free wet lettuce, and a feather duster.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Does MAGA die with Trump (like Corbyn) or do they try and keep it going?

    Corbyn has not died yet, and I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t want to die with Trump.
    Corbyn's supporters will be using his name for decades I suspect.
    You missed out 'dwindling band of'
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824

    HYUFD said:

    NEW: Keir Starmer will declare the small boats crisis a 'national security' threat next week and will launch a new Organised Immigration Crime Intelligence Unit

    [
    @kateferguson4
    ]
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1852813065714049042

    Excellent. That will have the people smugglers quaking in their boots.

    After the Budget I'm sure he can stretch to giving each member of staff a free wet lettuce, and a feather duster.
    It’s so disingenuous. He was constantly talking about the Tories’ failure to deal with the boats during the election campaign. And only now, after more than a hundred days in office, has he decided it’s actually worth doing something about.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    HYUFD said:

    NEW: Keir Starmer will declare the small boats crisis a 'national security' threat next week and will launch a new Organised Immigration Crime Intelligence Unit

    [
    @kateferguson4
    ]
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1852813065714049042

    He needs a verb that isn't "stop". I expect he will be using the word "grip" a lot.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    viewcode said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Barnesian said:

    She really has curdled into a petty, old boot.

    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1852715478461890626

    May be, like Tennant, you “just wish [her] to shut up”?

    Or dream of a world where you wake up and she “ doesn’t exist”?

    (Snip)
    The problem is that many anti-trans people don't want trans people to exist, deny they exist, and/or want to make it impossible for them to transition at any age.

    Hence calling transmen "confused lesbians", or transwomen "men in skirts", and the attempts to stop trans people from using womens toilets.
    That is definitely not Rowling's position.
    On her blog:
    "Again and again I’ve been told to ‘just meet some trans people.’ I have: in addition to a few younger people, who were all adorable, I happen to know a self-described transsexual woman who’s older than I am and wonderful. Although she’s open about her past as a gay man, I’ve always found it hard to think of her as anything other than a woman, and I believe (and certainly hope) she’s completely happy to have transitioned. Being older, though, she went through a long and rigorous process of evaluation, psychotherapy and staged transformation. The current explosion of trans activism is urging a removal of almost all the robust systems through which candidates for sex reassignment were once required to pass. A man who intends to have no surgery and take no hormones may now secure himself a Gender Recognition Certificate and be a woman in the sight of the law."
    That's the issue. The vast majority of people are not anti-trans. They are supportive or just not interested. The problem lies with the very small minority of trans activists who are trying to coerce the rest of us to not only accept self identification (fair enough) but use the law to enforce the right of Self ID trans to have access to women's spaces.

    I'm supportive of animal rights but not animal rights activists.
    I'm supportive of protection of the environment and action on climate change, but not of the extreme activists.
    The activists do more harm than good to their cause. Including trans activists.
    And yes I know about the suffragettes. I don't think the extremists helped their cause.
    She also routinely misgenders people. If she meant what she said above, she wouldn't. It strikes me as being like a racist who knows and likes one black person, and therefore thinks it excuses racism towards others. "Of course I'm not racist; an old friend of mine is black."

    I'm unsure that "The vast majority of people are not anti-trans." It'd be interesting to see figures on that.
    Even the tweet mocking David Tennant today is a low blow.

    One of Tennant's children is, IIRC, trans / gender non-conforming.

    To use an analogy people on here might understand, Leon didn't just get the banhammer for casual racism, it was because he offended to the core people whose partners and children are non-white, by implying their loved ones had less value than 'white babies'. And that felt like a visceral, personal attack.

    To some of us, trans people aren't just strange concepts that only exist in theory, they are our friends, family and loved ones. And when people make comments that seek to erase their existence, as Rowling frequently does, e.g. with the casual misgendering, it wounds to the very core.

    Rowling's transphobia is out there in the open for all to see.

    I don't want to get involved in a long, drawn out debate on the trans issue. But I do want to stand up for, and speak up for, the people I love.

    David Tennant wasn't some rich lefty
    engaging in virtue signalling. He was a father standing up for his child's right to exist.

    Nobody should be made to feel less valid as a human being because of the colour of their skin, their sexuality, or their gender identity. Rowling, sadly, has a great deal of form with the latter.
    Tennant’s attack was on Badenoch and he wished for a world where she didn’t exist and that she would shut up.
    If wishing for a world where Badenoch doesn't exist and that she would shut up is a sin, then there are a lot of sinners, including half of PB.
    I don't think that true. I haven't heard a PB poster restate David Tennant's statement, just express understanding of why he made the statement. As a matter of principle I don't call for people to be banned, shunned or sacked*.

    @kyf_100 is right that many of us have Trans friends and relations, including my sons flatmate. Sure there are issues of how to resolve the conflicting rights and aspirations, but for most of us it is a matter of freedom and "live and let live".

    *my only deviation from this rule is Leicester City football managers.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Barnesian said:

    She really has curdled into a petty, old boot.

    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1852715478461890626

    May be, like Tennant, you “just wish [her] to shut up”?

    Or dream of a world where you wake up and she “ doesn’t exist”?

    (Snip)
    The problem is that many anti-trans people don't want trans people to exist, deny they exist, and/or want to make it impossible for them to transition at any age.

    Hence calling transmen "confused lesbians", or transwomen "men in skirts", and the attempts to stop trans people from using womens toilets.
    That is definitely not Rowling's position.
    On her blog:
    "Again and again I’ve been told to ‘just meet some trans people.’ I have: in addition to a few younger people, who were all adorable, I happen to know a self-described transsexual woman who’s older than I am and wonderful. Although she’s open about her past as a gay man, I’ve always found it hard to think of her as anything other than a woman, and I believe (and certainly hope) she’s completely happy to have transitioned. Being older, though, she went through a long and rigorous process of evaluation, psychotherapy and staged transformation. The current explosion of trans activism is urging a removal of almost all the robust systems through which candidates for sex reassignment were once required to pass. A man who intends to have no surgery and take no hormones may now secure himself a Gender Recognition Certificate and be a woman in the sight of the law."
    That's the issue. The vast majority of people are not anti-trans. They are supportive or just not interested. The problem lies with the very small minority of trans activists who are trying to coerce the rest of us to not only accept self identification (fair enough) but use the law to enforce the right of Self ID trans to have access to women's spaces.

    I'm supportive of animal rights but not animal rights activists.
    I'm supportive of protection of the environment and action on climate change, but not of the extreme activists.
    The activists do more harm than good to their cause. Including trans activists.
    And yes I know about the suffragettes. I don't think the extremists helped their cause.
    She also routinely misgenders people. If she meant what she said above, she wouldn't. It strikes me as being like a racist who knows and likes one black person, and therefore thinks it excuses racism towards others. "Of course I'm not racist; an old friend of mine is black."

    I'm unsure that "The vast majority of people are not anti-trans." It'd be interesting to see figures on that.
    Even the tweet mocking David Tennant today is a low blow.

    One of Tennant's children is, IIRC, trans / gender non-conforming.

    To use an analogy people on here might understand, Leon didn't just get the banhammer for casual racism, it was because he offended to the core people whose partners and children are non-white, by implying their loved ones had less value than 'white babies'. And that felt like a visceral, personal attack.

    To some of us, trans people aren't just strange concepts that only exist in theory, they are our friends, family and loved ones. And when people make comments that seek to erase their existence, as Rowling frequently does, e.g. with the casual misgendering, it wounds to the very core.

    Rowling's transphobia is out there in the open for all to see.

    I don't want to get involved in a long, drawn out debate on the trans issue. But I do want to stand up for, and speak up for, the people I love.

    David Tennant wasn't some rich lefty engaging in virtue signalling. He was a father standing up for his child's right to exist.

    Nobody should be made to feel less valid as a human being because of the colour of their skin, their sexuality, or their gender identity. Rowling, sadly, has a great deal of form with the latter.
    But, his remark about Kemi Badenoch was disgraceful. He doesn’t get a pass.
    I don't think his quote that his "...life would be easier if she didn't exist" is disgraceful. Although my life is £74 better than it was this morning thanks to her existence, so there's that.
    There is a propensity for celebrities to have a trans child. Of course, no such thing as a trans child, just a parent proxying their transhaussen.
    So you mean like Elon Musk's sprog?
    Exactly like that. Coming as trans should be celebrated like coming out as anorexic.
    Oh fuck off, then fuck off some more, until you disappear into the horizon.

    I have mentioned a friend of mine and her kid is trans.

    I've known them since they were 9 and now 32 and they've never been happier than in the last 7 years since they felt comfortable in as identifying as trans.
    If they were anorexic, would you collude with them and encourage them in them identifying as fat ?
    A man thinking he is a woman and a thin person thinking they are fat are clearly both delusions. They are similar in that respect.

    But the former is harmless and the latter can kill you and needs intervention.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,947
    HYUFD said:

    NEW: Keir Starmer will declare the small boats crisis a 'national security' threat next week and will launch a new Organised Immigration Crime Intelligence Unit

    [
    @kateferguson4
    ]
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1852813065714049042

    Typical solution of a flailing technocrat - establish a new "unit" - that'll solve everything. He'll be setting up a Royal Commission next I imagine.

    He's totally out of his depth. Unlike the migrants as they stream onto our beaches.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Barnesian said:

    She really has curdled into a petty, old boot.

    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1852715478461890626

    May be, like Tennant, you “just wish [her] to shut up”?

    Or dream of a world where you wake up and she “ doesn’t exist”?

    (Snip)
    The problem is that many anti-trans people don't want trans people to exist, deny they exist, and/or want to make it impossible for them to transition at any age.

    Hence calling transmen "confused lesbians", or transwomen "men in skirts", and the attempts to stop trans people from using womens toilets.
    That is definitely not Rowling's position.
    On her blog:
    "Again and again I’ve been told to ‘just meet some trans people.’ I have: in addition to a few younger people, who were all adorable, I happen to know a self-described transsexual woman who’s older than I am and wonderful. Although she’s open about her past as a gay man, I’ve always found it hard to think of her as anything other than a woman, and I believe (and certainly hope) she’s completely happy to have transitioned. Being older, though, she went through a long and rigorous process of evaluation, psychotherapy and staged transformation. The current explosion of trans activism is urging a removal of almost all the robust systems through which candidates for sex reassignment were once required to pass. A man who intends to have no surgery and take no hormones may now secure himself a Gender Recognition Certificate and be a woman in the sight of the law."
    That's the issue. The vast majority of people are not anti-trans. They are supportive or just not interested. The problem lies with the very small minority of trans activists who are trying to coerce the rest of us to not only accept self identification (fair enough) but use the law to enforce the right of Self ID trans to have access to women's spaces.

    I'm supportive of animal rights but not animal rights activists.
    I'm supportive of protection of the environment and action on climate change, but not of the extreme activists.
    The activists do more harm than good to their cause. Including trans activists.
    And yes I know about the suffragettes. I don't think the extremists helped their cause.
    She also routinely misgenders people. If she meant what she said above, she wouldn't. It strikes me as being like a racist who knows and likes one black person, and therefore thinks it excuses racism towards others. "Of course I'm not racist; an old friend of mine is black."

    I'm unsure that "The vast majority of people are not anti-trans." It'd be interesting to see figures on that.
    Even the tweet mocking David Tennant today is a low blow.

    One of Tennant's children is, IIRC, trans / gender non-conforming.

    To use an analogy people on here might understand, Leon didn't just get the banhammer for casual racism, it was because he offended to the core people whose partners and children are non-white, by implying their loved ones had less value than 'white babies'. And that felt like a visceral, personal attack.

    To some of us, trans people aren't just strange concepts that only exist in theory, they are our friends, family and loved ones. And when people make comments that seek to erase their existence, as Rowling frequently does, e.g. with the casual misgendering, it wounds to the very core.

    Rowling's transphobia is out there in the open for all to see.

    I don't want to get involved in a long, drawn out debate on the trans issue. But I do want to stand up for, and speak up for, the people I love.

    David Tennant wasn't some rich lefty
    engaging in virtue signalling. He was a father standing up for his child's right to exist.

    Nobody should be made to feel less valid as a human being because of the colour of their skin, their sexuality, or their gender identity. Rowling, sadly, has a great deal of form with the latter.
    Tennant’s attack was on Badenoch and he wished for a world where she didn’t exist and that she would shut up.
    If wishing for a world where Badenoch doesn't exist and that she would shut up is a sin, then there are a lot of sinners, including half of PB.
    I don't think that true. I haven't heard a PB poster restate David Tennant's statement, just express understanding of why he made the statement. As a matter of principle I don't call for people to be banned, shunned or sacked*.

    @kyf_100 is right that many of us have Trans friends and relations, including my sons flatmate. Sure there are issues of how to resolve the conflicting rights and aspirations, but for most of us it is a matter of freedom and "live and let live".

    *my only deviation from this rule is Leicester City football managers.
    As a Coventry fan, permit me some schadenfreude.

    And then remind me of the average league position for the last 20 years…
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Barnesian said:

    She really has curdled into a petty, old boot.

    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1852715478461890626

    May be, like Tennant, you “just wish [her] to shut up”?

    Or dream of a world where you wake up and she “ doesn’t exist”?

    (Snip)
    The problem is that many anti-trans people don't want trans people to exist, deny they exist, and/or want to make it impossible for them to transition at any age.

    Hence calling transmen "confused lesbians", or transwomen "men in skirts", and the attempts to stop trans people from using womens toilets.
    That is definitely not Rowling's position.
    On her blog:
    "Again and again I’ve been told to ‘just meet some trans people.’ I have: in addition to a few younger people, who were all adorable, I happen to know a self-described transsexual woman who’s older than I am and wonderful. Although she’s open about her past as a gay man, I’ve always found it hard to think of her as anything other than a woman, and I believe (and certainly hope) she’s completely happy to have transitioned. Being older, though, she went through a long and rigorous process of evaluation, psychotherapy and staged transformation. The current explosion of trans activism is urging a removal of almost all the robust systems through which candidates for sex reassignment were once required to pass. A man who intends to have no surgery and take no hormones may now secure himself a Gender Recognition Certificate and be a woman in the sight of the law."
    That's the issue. The vast majority of people are not anti-trans. They are supportive or just not interested. The problem lies with the very small minority of trans activists who are trying to coerce the rest of us to not only accept self identification (fair enough) but use the law to enforce the right of Self ID trans to have access to women's spaces.

    I'm supportive of animal rights but not animal rights activists.
    I'm supportive of protection of the environment and action on climate change, but not of the extreme activists.
    The activists do more harm than good to their cause. Including trans activists.
    And yes I know about the suffragettes. I don't think the extremists helped their cause.
    She also routinely misgenders people. If she meant what she said above, she wouldn't. It strikes me as being like a racist who knows and likes one black person, and therefore thinks it excuses racism towards others. "Of course I'm not racist; an old friend of mine is black."

    I'm unsure that "The vast majority of people are not anti-trans." It'd be interesting to see figures on that.
    Even the tweet mocking David Tennant today is a low blow.

    One of Tennant's children is, IIRC, trans / gender non-conforming.

    To use an analogy people on here might understand, Leon didn't just get the banhammer for casual racism, it was because he offended to the core people whose partners and children are non-white, by implying their loved ones had less value than 'white babies'. And that felt like a visceral, personal attack.

    To some of us, trans people aren't just strange concepts that only exist in theory, they are our friends, family and loved ones. And when people make comments that seek to erase their existence, as Rowling frequently does, e.g. with the casual misgendering, it wounds to the very core.

    Rowling's transphobia is out there in the open for all to see.

    I don't want to get involved in a long, drawn out debate on the trans issue. But I do want to stand up for, and speak up for, the people I love.

    David Tennant wasn't some rich lefty engaging in virtue signalling. He was a father standing up for his child's right to exist.

    Nobody should be made to feel less valid as a human being because of the colour of their skin, their sexuality, or their gender identity. Rowling, sadly, has a great deal of form with the latter.
    But, his remark about Kemi Badenoch was disgraceful. He doesn’t get a pass.
    I don't think his quote that his "...life would be easier if she didn't exist" is disgraceful. Although my life is £74 better than it was this morning thanks to her existence, so there's that.
    There is a propensity for celebrities to have a trans child. Of course, no such thing as a trans child, just a parent proxying their transhaussen.
    So you mean like Elon Musk's sprog?
    Exactly like that. Coming as trans should be celebrated like coming out as anorexic.
    Oh fuck off, then fuck off some more, until you disappear into the horizon.

    I have mentioned a friend of mine and her kid is trans.

    I've known them since they were 9 and now 32 and they've never been happier than in the last 7 years since they felt comfortable in as identifying as trans.
    If they were anorexic, would you collude with them and encourage them in them identifying as fat ?
    A man thinking he is a woman and a thin person thinking they are fat are clearly both delusions. They are similar in that respect.

    But the former is harmless and the latter can kill you and needs intervention.
    I think that a very simplistic (and wrong) description of both anorexia and gender dysphoria.
  • Labour’s support in Scotland has plunged in the wake of Rachel Reeves’s budget, which voters believe will hit them in their pockets and damage the country, a new poll has found.

    Backing for Anas Sarwar’s party has dropped to such an extent that it would be virtually impossible for him to form a Scottish government if the results were replicated at the Holyrood 2026 election.

    The poll by Norstat, the first conducted in Scotland since the chancellor unveiled her tax and spending plans, suggested that while voters felt warmly about the budget’s main policies, they felt that they would lose out overall.

    The research put support for Labour in Scottish parliamentary constituencies at 23 per cent, a drop of seven points since the last survey in August and the lowest since Nicola Sturgeon quit as first minister last March. Backing for Scottish Labour on the more proportional regional list fell by six points to 22 per cent.

    Analysis by Sir John Curtice, the polling expert and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, found this would leave Labour with 29 MSPs, an increase of seven on its current level.

    The SNP has failed to capitalise on Labour’s woes — remaining unchanged on 33 per cent for constituency votes and increasing backing by only one point to 29 per cent on the regional list — but its projected return of 51 MSPs would almost certainly see John Swinney remain first minister despite losing 13 seats compared with the 2021 election.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-labour-popularity-poll-rachel-reeves-budget-2024-5jmhqwjkr

    It's Scotland, so a real longshot,but one wonders what the upper limits of how well the SCons might do up there are.
    I think the lower limits are the ones more likely to be tested. Without the bogey man of independence there is no point in voting SCon. Reform are going to take a massive chunk out of them.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    edited November 2
    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Barnesian said:

    She really has curdled into a petty, old boot.

    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1852715478461890626

    May be, like Tennant, you “just wish [her] to shut up”?

    Or dream of a world where you wake up and she “ doesn’t exist”?

    (Snip)
    The problem is that many anti-trans people don't want trans people to exist, deny they exist, and/or want to make it impossible for them to transition at any age.

    Hence calling transmen "confused lesbians", or transwomen "men in skirts", and the attempts to stop trans people from using womens toilets.
    That is definitely not Rowling's position.
    On her blog:
    "Again and again I’ve been told to ‘just meet some trans people.’ I have: in addition to a few younger people, who were all adorable, I happen to know a self-described transsexual woman who’s older than I am and wonderful. Although she’s open about her past as a gay man, I’ve always found it hard to think of her as anything other than a woman, and I believe (and certainly hope) she’s completely happy to have transitioned. Being older, though, she went through a long and rigorous process of evaluation, psychotherapy and staged transformation. The current explosion of trans activism is urging a removal of almost all the robust systems through which candidates for sex reassignment were once required to pass. A man who intends to have no surgery and take no hormones may now secure himself a Gender Recognition Certificate and be a woman in the sight of the law."
    That's the issue. The vast majority of people are not anti-trans. They are supportive or just not interested. The problem lies with the very small minority of trans activists who are trying to coerce the rest of us to not only accept self identification (fair enough) but use the law to enforce the right of Self ID trans to have access to women's spaces.

    I'm supportive of animal rights but not animal rights activists.
    I'm supportive of protection of the environment and action on climate change, but not of the extreme activists.
    The activists do more harm than good to their cause. Including trans activists.
    And yes I know about the suffragettes. I don't think the extremists helped their cause.
    She also routinely misgenders people. If she meant what she said above, she wouldn't. It strikes me as being like a racist who knows and likes one black person, and therefore thinks it excuses racism towards others. "Of course I'm not racist; an old friend of mine is black."

    I'm unsure that "The vast majority of people are not anti-trans." It'd be interesting to see figures on that.
    Even the tweet mocking David Tennant today is a low blow.

    One of Tennant's children is, IIRC, trans / gender non-conforming.

    To use an analogy people on here might understand, Leon didn't just get the banhammer for casual racism, it was because he offended to the core people whose partners and children are non-white, by implying their loved ones had less value than 'white babies'. And that felt like a visceral, personal attack.

    To some of us, trans people aren't just strange concepts that only exist in theory, they are our friends, family and loved ones. And when people make comments that seek to erase their existence, as Rowling frequently does, e.g. with the casual misgendering, it wounds to the very core.

    Rowling's transphobia is out there in the open for all to see.

    I don't want to get involved in a long, drawn out debate on the trans issue. But I do want to stand up for, and speak up for, the people I love.

    David Tennant wasn't some rich lefty engaging in virtue signalling. He was a father standing up for his child's right to exist.

    Nobody should be made to feel less valid as a human being because of the colour of their skin, their sexuality, or their gender identity. Rowling, sadly, has a great deal of form with the latter.
    But, his remark about Kemi Badenoch was disgraceful. He doesn’t get a pass.
    I don't think his quote that his "...life would be easier if she didn't exist" is disgraceful. Although my life is £74 better than it was this morning thanks to her existence, so there's that.
    There is a propensity for celebrities to have a trans child. Of course, no such thing as a trans child, just a parent proxying their transhaussen.
    So you mean like Elon Musk's sprog?
    Exactly like that. Coming as trans should be celebrated like coming out as anorexic.
    Oh fuck off, then fuck off some more, until you disappear into the horizon.

    I have mentioned a friend of mine and her kid is trans.

    I've known them since they were 9 and now 32 and they've never been happier than in the last 7 years since they felt comfortable in as identifying as trans.
    If they were anorexic, would you collude with them and encourage them in them identifying as fat ?
    A man thinking he is a woman and a thin person thinking they are fat are clearly both delusions. They are similar in that respect.

    But the former is harmless and the latter can kill you and needs intervention.
    I think that a very simplistic (and wrong) description of both anorexia and gender dysphoria.
    Why? A delusion is a false belief about an external reality.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    NEW: Keir Starmer will declare the small boats crisis a 'national security' threat next week and will launch a new Organised Immigration Crime Intelligence Unit

    [
    @kateferguson4
    ]
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1852813065714049042

    Excellent. That will have the people smugglers quaking in their boots.

    After the Budget I'm sure he can stretch to giving each member of staff a free wet lettuce, and a feather duster.
    It’s so disingenuous. He was constantly talking about the Tories’ failure to deal with the boats during the election campaign. And only now, after more than a hundred days in office, has he decided it’s actually worth doing something about.
    I believe you could have a fair number of valid criticisms to make of the current Government. However beating them up over failing to get a grip after four months of the small boats is a bit rich when your boys and girls dropped the ball several years ago, and their response was a stupid and very expensive stunt.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,824

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    NEW: Keir Starmer will declare the small boats crisis a 'national security' threat next week and will launch a new Organised Immigration Crime Intelligence Unit

    [
    @kateferguson4
    ]
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1852813065714049042

    Excellent. That will have the people smugglers quaking in their boots.

    After the Budget I'm sure he can stretch to giving each member of staff a free wet lettuce, and a feather duster.
    It’s so disingenuous. He was constantly talking about the Tories’ failure to deal with the boats during the election campaign. And only now, after more than a hundred days in office, has he decided it’s actually worth doing something about.
    I believe you could have a fair number of valid criticisms to make of the current Government. However beating them up over failing to get a grip after four months of the small boats is a bit rich when your boys and girls dropped the ball several years ago, and their response was a stupid and very expensive stunt.
    I’m not beating them up for failing to get a grip. I’m beating them up for failing to even start the process of getting a grip.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794

    Labour’s support in Scotland has plunged in the wake of Rachel Reeves’s budget, which voters believe will hit them in their pockets and damage the country, a new poll has found.

    Backing for Anas Sarwar’s party has dropped to such an extent that it would be virtually impossible for him to form a Scottish government if the results were replicated at the Holyrood 2026 election.

    The poll by Norstat, the first conducted in Scotland since the chancellor unveiled her tax and spending plans, suggested that while voters felt warmly about the budget’s main policies, they felt that they would lose out overall.

    The research put support for Labour in Scottish parliamentary constituencies at 23 per cent, a drop of seven points since the last survey in August and the lowest since Nicola Sturgeon quit as first minister last March. Backing for Scottish Labour on the more proportional regional list fell by six points to 22 per cent.

    Analysis by Sir John Curtice, the polling expert and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, found this would leave Labour with 29 MSPs, an increase of seven on its current level.

    The SNP has failed to capitalise on Labour’s woes — remaining unchanged on 33 per cent for constituency votes and increasing backing by only one point to 29 per cent on the regional list — but its projected return of 51 MSPs would almost certainly see John Swinney remain first minister despite losing 13 seats compared with the 2021 election.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-labour-popularity-poll-rachel-reeves-budget-2024-5jmhqwjkr

    It's Scotland, so a real longshot,but one wonders what the upper limits of how well the SCons might do up there are.
    When was the last time we had a party leader with a name as ostentatiously Scottish as Badenoch?
    David CAMERON
    Gordon BROWN
    Tony BLAIR
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Barnesian said:

    She really has curdled into a petty, old boot.

    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1852715478461890626

    May be, like Tennant, you “just wish [her] to shut up”?

    Or dream of a world where you wake up and she “ doesn’t exist”?

    (Snip)
    The problem is that many anti-trans people don't want trans people to exist, deny they exist, and/or want to make it impossible for them to transition at any age.

    Hence calling transmen "confused lesbians", or transwomen "men in skirts", and the attempts to stop trans people from using womens toilets.
    That is definitely not Rowling's position.
    On her blog:
    "Again and again I’ve been told to ‘just meet some trans people.’ I have: in addition to a few younger people, who were all adorable, I happen to know a self-described transsexual woman who’s older than I am and wonderful. Although she’s open about her past as a gay man, I’ve always found it hard to think of her as anything other than a woman, and I believe (and certainly hope) she’s completely happy to have transitioned. Being older, though, she went through a long and rigorous process of evaluation, psychotherapy and staged transformation. The current explosion of trans activism is urging a removal of almost all the robust systems through which candidates for sex reassignment were once required to pass. A man who intends to have no surgery and take no hormones may now secure himself a Gender Recognition Certificate and be a woman in the sight of the law."
    That's the issue. The vast majority of people are not anti-trans. They are supportive or just not interested. The problem lies with the very small minority of trans activists who are trying to coerce the rest of us to not only accept self identification (fair enough) but use the law to enforce the right of Self ID trans to have access to women's spaces.

    I'm supportive of animal rights but not animal rights activists.
    I'm supportive of protection of the environment and action on climate change, but not of the extreme activists.
    The activists do more harm than good to their cause. Including trans activists.
    And yes I know about the suffragettes. I don't think the extremists helped their cause.
    She also routinely misgenders people. If she meant what she said above, she wouldn't. It strikes me as being like a racist who knows and likes one black person, and therefore thinks it excuses racism towards others. "Of course I'm not racist; an old friend of mine is black."

    I'm unsure that "The vast majority of people are not anti-trans." It'd be interesting to see figures on that.
    Even the tweet mocking David Tennant today is a low blow.

    One of Tennant's children is, IIRC, trans / gender non-conforming.

    To use an analogy people on here might understand, Leon didn't just get the banhammer for casual racism, it was because he offended to the core people whose partners and children are non-white, by implying their loved ones had less value than 'white babies'. And that felt like a visceral, personal attack.

    To some of us, trans people aren't just strange concepts that only exist in theory, they are our friends, family and loved ones. And when people make comments that seek to erase their existence, as Rowling frequently does, e.g. with the casual misgendering, it wounds to the very core.

    Rowling's transphobia is out there in the open for all to see.

    I don't want to get involved in a long, drawn out debate on the trans issue. But I do want to stand up for, and speak up for, the people I love.

    David Tennant wasn't some rich lefty engaging in virtue signalling. He was a father standing up for his child's right to exist.

    Nobody should be made to feel less valid as a human being because of the colour of their skin, their sexuality, or their gender identity. Rowling, sadly, has a great deal of form with the latter.
    But, his remark about Kemi Badenoch was disgraceful. He doesn’t get a pass.
    I don't think his quote that his "...life would be easier if she didn't exist" is disgraceful. Although my life is £74 better than it was this morning thanks to her existence, so there's that.
    There is a propensity for celebrities to have a trans child. Of course, no such thing as a trans child, just a parent proxying their transhaussen.
    So you mean like Elon Musk's sprog?
    Exactly like that. Coming as trans should be celebrated like coming out as anorexic.
    Oh fuck off, then fuck off some more, until you disappear into the horizon.

    I have mentioned a friend of mine and her kid is trans.

    I've known them since they were 9 and now 32 and they've never been happier than in the last 7 years since they felt comfortable in as identifying as trans.
    If they were anorexic, would you collude with them and encourage them in them identifying as fat ?
    A man thinking he is a woman and a thin person thinking they are fat are clearly both delusions. They are similar in that respect.

    But the former is harmless and the latter can kill you and needs intervention.
    I think that a very simplistic (and wrong) description of both anorexia and gender dysphoria.
    Why? A delusion is a false belief about an external reality.
    There is more than that to the definition of delusion too. Beliefs that are in keeping with a culture or sub culture (eg religious belief) fall outside the definition of delusion according to DSM IV.

    Gender dysphoria or incongruence is caused by the difference between inward gender identification and external body type. Trans people recognise their body is a different gender, indeed that is the source of their discomfort, so by definition they are not delusional.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Barnesian said:

    She really has curdled into a petty, old boot.

    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1852715478461890626

    May be, like Tennant, you “just wish [her] to shut up”?

    Or dream of a world where you wake up and she “ doesn’t exist”?

    (Snip)
    The problem is that many anti-trans people don't want trans people to exist, deny they exist, and/or want to make it impossible for them to transition at any age.

    Hence calling transmen "confused lesbians", or transwomen "men in skirts", and the attempts to stop trans people from using womens toilets.
    That is definitely not Rowling's position.
    On her blog:
    "Again and again I’ve been told to ‘just meet some trans people.’ I have: in addition to a few younger people, who were all adorable, I happen to know a self-described transsexual woman who’s older than I am and wonderful. Although she’s open about her past as a gay man, I’ve always found it hard to think of her as anything other than a woman, and I believe (and certainly hope) she’s completely happy to have transitioned. Being older, though, she went through a long and rigorous process of evaluation, psychotherapy and staged transformation. The current explosion of trans activism is urging a removal of almost all the robust systems through which candidates for sex reassignment were once required to pass. A man who intends to have no surgery and take no hormones may now secure himself a Gender Recognition Certificate and be a woman in the sight of the law."
    That's the issue. The vast majority of people are not anti-trans. They are supportive or just not interested. The problem lies with the very small minority of trans activists who are trying to coerce the rest of us to not only accept self identification (fair enough) but use the law to enforce the right of Self ID trans to have access to women's spaces.

    I'm supportive of animal rights but not animal rights activists.
    I'm supportive of protection of the environment and action on climate change, but not of the extreme activists.
    The activists do more harm than good to their cause. Including trans activists.
    And yes I know about the suffragettes. I don't think the extremists helped their cause.
    She also routinely misgenders people. If she meant what she said above, she wouldn't. It strikes me as being like a racist who knows and likes one black person, and therefore thinks it excuses racism towards others. "Of course I'm not racist; an old friend of mine is black."

    I'm unsure that "The vast majority of people are not anti-trans." It'd be interesting to see figures on that.
    Even the tweet mocking David Tennant today is a low blow.

    One of Tennant's children is, IIRC, trans / gender non-conforming.

    To use an analogy people on here might understand, Leon didn't just get the banhammer for casual racism, it was because he offended to the core people whose partners and children are non-white, by implying their loved ones had less value than 'white babies'. And that felt like a visceral, personal attack.

    To some of us, trans people aren't just strange concepts that only exist in theory, they are our friends, family and loved ones. And when people make comments that seek to erase their existence, as Rowling frequently does, e.g. with the casual misgendering, it wounds to the very core.

    Rowling's transphobia is out there in the open for all to see.

    I don't want to get involved in a long, drawn out debate on the trans issue. But I do want to stand up for, and speak up for, the people I love.

    David Tennant wasn't some rich lefty engaging in virtue signalling. He was a father standing up for his child's right to exist.

    Nobody should be made to feel less valid as a human being because of the colour of their skin, their sexuality, or their gender identity. Rowling, sadly, has a great deal of form with the latter.
    But, his remark about Kemi Badenoch was disgraceful. He doesn’t get a pass.
    I don't think his quote that his "...life would be easier if she didn't exist" is disgraceful. Although my life is £74 better than it was this morning thanks to her existence, so there's that.
    There is a propensity for celebrities to have a trans child. Of course, no such thing as a trans child, just a parent proxying their transhaussen.
    So you mean like Elon Musk's sprog?
    Exactly like that. Coming as trans should be celebrated like coming out as anorexic.
    Oh fuck off, then fuck off some more, until you disappear into the horizon.

    I have mentioned a friend of mine and her kid is trans.

    I've known them since they were 9 and now 32 and they've never been happier than in the last 7 years since they felt comfortable in as identifying as trans.
    If they were anorexic, would you collude with them and encourage them in them identifying as fat ?
    A man thinking he is a woman and a thin person thinking they are fat are clearly both delusions. They are similar in that respect.

    But the former is harmless and the latter can kill you and needs intervention.
    The former is harmless???? - I'm sorry but didn't you read my post earlier that I know people that killed themselves because of the impact it had on their life...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited November 2
    Andy_JS said:

    Amusing how many Labour supporters on Twitter are saying Starmer is going to be happier with Kemi as leader. Most of them must know this isn't true. A few may genuinely believe it.

    I think Labour would be happier with a traditional Tory rather than a populist Reform clone. It makes governing easier over the next few years. Even more so if Trump wins. It's not entirely zero sum. Badenoch isn't wholly that but more than Jenrick.
  • viewcode said:

    Labour’s support in Scotland has plunged in the wake of Rachel Reeves’s budget, which voters believe will hit them in their pockets and damage the country, a new poll has found.

    Backing for Anas Sarwar’s party has dropped to such an extent that it would be virtually impossible for him to form a Scottish government if the results were replicated at the Holyrood 2026 election.

    The poll by Norstat, the first conducted in Scotland since the chancellor unveiled her tax and spending plans, suggested that while voters felt warmly about the budget’s main policies, they felt that they would lose out overall.

    The research put support for Labour in Scottish parliamentary constituencies at 23 per cent, a drop of seven points since the last survey in August and the lowest since Nicola Sturgeon quit as first minister last March. Backing for Scottish Labour on the more proportional regional list fell by six points to 22 per cent.

    Analysis by Sir John Curtice, the polling expert and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, found this would leave Labour with 29 MSPs, an increase of seven on its current level.

    The SNP has failed to capitalise on Labour’s woes — remaining unchanged on 33 per cent for constituency votes and increasing backing by only one point to 29 per cent on the regional list — but its projected return of 51 MSPs would almost certainly see John Swinney remain first minister despite losing 13 seats compared with the 2021 election.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-labour-popularity-poll-rachel-reeves-budget-2024-5jmhqwjkr

    It's Scotland, so a real longshot,but one wonders what the upper limits of how well the SCons might do up there are.
    When was the last time we had a party leader with a name as ostentatiously Scottish as Badenoch?
    David CAMERON
    Gordon BROWN
    Tony BLAIR
    Menzies Campbell.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    72,181,302 mail-in and early in-person votes cast nationally

    NBC news
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,789
    eek said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:
    Kaplan had Harris 5 points ahead in August - Harris 49% - Trump 44%. Trump has had a good campaign to turn it around.

    https://kaplanstrategies.com/2024/08/25/national-poll/
    He may well win, and win the College comfortably. However his campaign has been anything but good. Any other GOP candidate perhaps in the vein of Reagan would have won with a landslide.
    If the GOP candidate wasn't Trump they would be winning by a landslide, you don't need a Reagan - Dan Quayle would have won this time round...
    If the GOP candidate wasn't Trump, the Dems wouldn't have so cavalierly stitched the nomination up for Harris...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Barnesian said:

    She really has curdled into a petty, old boot.

    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1852715478461890626

    May be, like Tennant, you “just wish [her] to shut up”?

    Or dream of a world where you wake up and she “ doesn’t exist”?

    (Snip)
    The problem is that many anti-trans people don't want trans people to exist, deny they exist, and/or want to make it impossible for them to transition at any age.

    Hence calling transmen "confused lesbians", or transwomen "men in skirts", and the attempts to stop trans people from using womens toilets.
    That is definitely not Rowling's position.
    On her blog:
    "Again and again I’ve been told to ‘just meet some trans people.’ I have: in addition to a few younger people, who were all adorable, I happen to know a self-described transsexual woman who’s older than I am and wonderful. Although she’s open about her past as a gay man, I’ve always found it hard to think of her as anything other than a woman, and I believe (and certainly hope) she’s completely happy to have transitioned. Being older, though, she went through a long and rigorous process of evaluation, psychotherapy and staged transformation. The current explosion of trans activism is urging a removal of almost all the robust systems through which candidates for sex reassignment were once required to pass. A man who intends to have no surgery and take no hormones may now secure himself a Gender Recognition Certificate and be a woman in the sight of the law."
    That's the issue. The vast majority of people are not anti-trans. They are supportive or just not interested. The problem lies with the very small minority of trans activists who are trying to coerce the rest of us to not only accept self identification (fair enough) but use the law to enforce the right of Self ID trans to have access to women's spaces.

    I'm supportive of animal rights but not animal rights activists.
    I'm supportive of protection of the environment and action on climate change, but not of the extreme activists.
    The activists do more harm than good to their cause. Including trans activists.
    And yes I know about the suffragettes. I don't think the extremists helped their cause.
    She also routinely misgenders people. If she meant what she said above, she wouldn't. It strikes me as being like a racist who knows and likes one black person, and therefore thinks it excuses racism towards others. "Of course I'm not racist; an old friend of mine is black."

    I'm unsure that "The vast majority of people are not anti-trans." It'd be interesting to see figures on that.
    Even the tweet mocking David Tennant today is a low blow.

    One of Tennant's children is, IIRC, trans / gender non-conforming.

    To use an analogy people on here might understand, Leon didn't just get the banhammer for casual racism, it was because he offended to the core people whose partners and children are non-white, by implying their loved ones had less value than 'white babies'. And that felt like a visceral, personal attack.

    To some of us, trans people aren't just strange concepts that only exist in theory, they are our friends, family and loved ones. And when people make comments that seek to erase their existence, as Rowling frequently does, e.g. with the casual misgendering, it wounds to the very core.

    Rowling's transphobia is out there in the open for all to see.

    I don't want to get involved in a long, drawn out debate on the trans issue. But I do want to stand up for, and speak up for, the people I love.

    David Tennant wasn't some rich lefty engaging in virtue signalling. He was a father standing up for his child's right to exist.

    Nobody should be made to feel less valid as a human being because of the colour of their skin, their sexuality, or their gender identity. Rowling, sadly, has a great deal of form with the latter.
    But, his remark about Kemi Badenoch was disgraceful. He doesn’t get a pass.
    I don't think his quote that his "...life would be easier if she didn't exist" is disgraceful. Although my life is £74 better than it was this morning thanks to her existence, so there's that.
    There is a propensity for celebrities to have a trans child. Of course, no such thing as a trans child, just a parent proxying their transhaussen.
    So you mean like Elon Musk's sprog?
    Exactly like that. Coming as trans should be celebrated like coming out as anorexic.
    Oh fuck off, then fuck off some more, until you disappear into the horizon.

    I have mentioned a friend of mine and her kid is trans.

    I've known them since they were 9 and now 32 and they've never been happier than in the last 7 years since they felt comfortable in as identifying as trans.
    If they were anorexic, would you collude with them and encourage them in them identifying as fat ?
    A man thinking he is a woman and a thin person thinking they are fat are clearly both delusions. They are similar in that respect.

    But the former is harmless and the latter can kill you and needs intervention.
    I think that a very simplistic (and wrong) description of both anorexia and gender dysphoria.
    Why? A delusion is a false belief about an external reality.
    There is more than that to the definition of delusion too. Beliefs that are in keeping with a culture or sub culture (eg religious belief) fall outside the definition of delusion according to DSM IV.

    Gender dysphoria or incongruence is caused by the difference between inward gender identification and external body type. Trans people recognise their body is a different gender, indeed that is the source of their discomfort, so by definition they are not delusional.
    Sounds delusional to me.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    eek said:

    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Barnesian said:

    She really has curdled into a petty, old boot.

    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1852715478461890626

    May be, like Tennant, you “just wish [her] to shut up”?

    Or dream of a world where you wake up and she “ doesn’t exist”?

    (Snip)
    The problem is that many anti-trans people don't want trans people to exist, deny they exist, and/or want to make it impossible for them to transition at any age.

    Hence calling transmen "confused lesbians", or transwomen "men in skirts", and the attempts to stop trans people from using womens toilets.
    That is definitely not Rowling's position.
    On her blog:
    "Again and again I’ve been told to ‘just meet some trans people.’ I have: in addition to a few younger people, who were all adorable, I happen to know a self-described transsexual woman who’s older than I am and wonderful. Although she’s open about her past as a gay man, I’ve always found it hard to think of her as anything other than a woman, and I believe (and certainly hope) she’s completely happy to have transitioned. Being older, though, she went through a long and rigorous process of evaluation, psychotherapy and staged transformation. The current explosion of trans activism is urging a removal of almost all the robust systems through which candidates for sex reassignment were once required to pass. A man who intends to have no surgery and take no hormones may now secure himself a Gender Recognition Certificate and be a woman in the sight of the law."
    That's the issue. The vast majority of people are not anti-trans. They are supportive or just not interested. The problem lies with the very small minority of trans activists who are trying to coerce the rest of us to not only accept self identification (fair enough) but use the law to enforce the right of Self ID trans to have access to women's spaces.

    I'm supportive of animal rights but not animal rights activists.
    I'm supportive of protection of the environment and action on climate change, but not of the extreme activists.
    The activists do more harm than good to their cause. Including trans activists.
    And yes I know about the suffragettes. I don't think the extremists helped their cause.
    She also routinely misgenders people. If she meant what she said above, she wouldn't. It strikes me as being like a racist who knows and likes one black person, and therefore thinks it excuses racism towards others. "Of course I'm not racist; an old friend of mine is black."

    I'm unsure that "The vast majority of people are not anti-trans." It'd be interesting to see figures on that.
    Even the tweet mocking David Tennant today is a low blow.

    One of Tennant's children is, IIRC, trans / gender non-conforming.

    To use an analogy people on here might understand, Leon didn't just get the banhammer for casual racism, it was because he offended to the core people whose partners and children are non-white, by implying their loved ones had less value than 'white babies'. And that felt like a visceral, personal attack.

    To some of us, trans people aren't just strange concepts that only exist in theory, they are our friends, family and loved ones. And when people make comments that seek to erase their existence, as Rowling frequently does, e.g. with the casual misgendering, it wounds to the very core.

    Rowling's transphobia is out there in the open for all to see.

    I don't want to get involved in a long, drawn out debate on the trans issue. But I do want to stand up for, and speak up for, the people I love.

    David Tennant wasn't some rich lefty engaging in virtue signalling. He was a father standing up for his child's right to exist.

    Nobody should be made to feel less valid as a human being because of the colour of their skin, their sexuality, or their gender identity. Rowling, sadly, has a great deal of form with the latter.
    But, his remark about Kemi Badenoch was disgraceful. He doesn’t get a pass.
    I don't think his quote that his "...life would be easier if she didn't exist" is disgraceful. Although my life is £74 better than it was this morning thanks to her existence, so there's that.
    There is a propensity for celebrities to have a trans child. Of course, no such thing as a trans child, just a parent proxying their transhaussen.
    So you mean like Elon Musk's sprog?
    Exactly like that. Coming as trans should be celebrated like coming out as anorexic.
    Oh fuck off, then fuck off some more, until you disappear into the horizon.

    I have mentioned a friend of mine and her kid is trans.

    I've known them since they were 9 and now 32 and they've never been happier than in the last 7 years since they felt comfortable in as identifying as trans.
    If they were anorexic, would you collude with them and encourage them in them identifying as fat ?
    A man thinking he is a woman and a thin person thinking they are fat are clearly both delusions. They are similar in that respect.

    But the former is harmless and the latter can kill you and needs intervention.
    The former is harmless???? - I'm sorry but didn't you read my post earlier that I know people that killed themselves because of the impact it had on their life...
    OK Both delusions are potentially harmful and need support and intervention.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548
    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Barnesian said:

    She really has curdled into a petty, old boot.

    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1852715478461890626

    May be, like Tennant, you “just wish [her] to shut up”?

    Or dream of a world where you wake up and she “ doesn’t exist”?

    (Snip)
    The problem is that many anti-trans people don't want trans people to exist, deny they exist, and/or want to make it impossible for them to transition at any age.

    Hence calling transmen "confused lesbians", or transwomen "men in skirts", and the attempts to stop trans people from using womens toilets.
    That is definitely not Rowling's position.
    On her blog:
    "Again and again I’ve been told to ‘just meet some trans people.’ I have: in addition to a few younger people, who were all adorable, I happen to know a self-described transsexual woman who’s older than I am and wonderful. Although she’s open about her past as a gay man, I’ve always found it hard to think of her as anything other than a woman, and I believe (and certainly hope) she’s completely happy to have transitioned. Being older, though, she went through a long and rigorous process of evaluation, psychotherapy and staged transformation. The current explosion of trans activism is urging a removal of almost all the robust systems through which candidates for sex reassignment were once required to pass. A man who intends to have no surgery and take no hormones may now secure himself a Gender Recognition Certificate and be a woman in the sight of the law."
    That's the issue. The vast majority of people are not anti-trans. They are supportive or just not interested. The problem lies with the very small minority of trans activists who are trying to coerce the rest of us to not only accept self identification (fair enough) but use the law to enforce the right of Self ID trans to have access to women's spaces.

    I'm supportive of animal rights but not animal rights activists.
    I'm supportive of protection of the environment and action on climate change, but not of the extreme activists.
    The activists do more harm than good to their cause. Including trans activists.
    And yes I know about the suffragettes. I don't think the extremists helped their cause.
    She also routinely misgenders people. If she meant what she said above, she wouldn't. It strikes me as being like a racist who knows and likes one black person, and therefore thinks it excuses racism towards others. "Of course I'm not racist; an old friend of mine is black."

    I'm unsure that "The vast majority of people are not anti-trans." It'd be interesting to see figures on that.
    Even the tweet mocking David Tennant today is a low blow.

    One of Tennant's children is, IIRC, trans / gender non-conforming.

    To use an analogy people on here might understand, Leon didn't just get the banhammer for casual racism, it was because he offended to the core people whose partners and children are non-white, by implying their loved ones had less value than 'white babies'. And that felt like a visceral, personal attack.

    To some of us, trans people aren't just strange concepts that only exist in theory, they are our friends, family and loved ones. And when people make comments that seek to erase their existence, as Rowling frequently does, e.g. with the casual misgendering, it wounds to the very core.

    Rowling's transphobia is out there in the open for all to see.

    I don't want to get involved in a long, drawn out debate on the trans issue. But I do want to stand up for, and speak up for, the people I love.

    David Tennant wasn't some rich lefty engaging in virtue signalling. He was a father standing up for his child's right to exist.

    Nobody should be made to feel less valid as a human being because of the colour of their skin, their sexuality, or their gender identity. Rowling, sadly, has a great deal of form with the latter.
    But, his remark about Kemi Badenoch was disgraceful. He doesn’t get a pass.
    I don't think his quote that his "...life would be easier if she didn't exist" is disgraceful. Although my life is £74 better than it was this morning thanks to her existence, so there's that.
    There is a propensity for celebrities to have a trans child. Of course, no such thing as a trans child, just a parent proxying their transhaussen.
    So you mean like Elon Musk's sprog?
    Exactly like that. Coming as trans should be celebrated like coming out as anorexic.
    Oh fuck off, then fuck off some more, until you disappear into the horizon.

    I have mentioned a friend of mine and her kid is trans.

    I've known them since they were 9 and now 32 and they've never been happier than in the last 7 years since they felt comfortable in as identifying as trans.
    If they were anorexic, would you collude with them and encourage them in them identifying as fat ?
    A man thinking he is a woman and a thin person thinking they are fat are clearly both delusions. They are similar in that respect.

    But the former is harmless and the latter can kill you and needs intervention.
    I think that a very simplistic (and wrong) description of both anorexia and gender dysphoria.
    Why? A delusion is a false belief about an external reality.
    There is more than that to the definition of delusion too. Beliefs that are in keeping with a culture or sub culture (eg religious belief) fall outside the definition of delusion according to DSM IV.

    Gender dysphoria or incongruence is caused by the difference between inward gender identification and external body type. Trans people recognise their body is a different gender, indeed that is the source of their discomfort, so by definition they are not delusional.
    Sounds delusional to me.
    In your expert opinion?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Barnesian said:

    She really has curdled into a petty, old boot.

    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1852715478461890626

    May be, like Tennant, you “just wish [her] to shut up”?

    Or dream of a world where you wake up and she “ doesn’t exist”?

    (Snip)
    The problem is that many anti-trans people don't want trans people to exist, deny they exist, and/or want to make it impossible for them to transition at any age.

    Hence calling transmen "confused lesbians", or transwomen "men in skirts", and the attempts to stop trans people from using womens toilets.
    That is definitely not Rowling's position.
    On her blog:
    "Again and again I’ve been told to ‘just meet some trans people.’ I have: in addition to a few younger people, who were all adorable, I happen to know a self-described transsexual woman who’s older than I am and wonderful. Although she’s open about her past as a gay man, I’ve always found it hard to think of her as anything other than a woman, and I believe (and certainly hope) she’s completely happy to have transitioned. Being older, though, she went through a long and rigorous process of evaluation, psychotherapy and staged transformation. The current explosion of trans activism is urging a removal of almost all the robust systems through which candidates for sex reassignment were once required to pass. A man who intends to have no surgery and take no hormones may now secure himself a Gender Recognition Certificate and be a woman in the sight of the law."
    That's the issue. The vast majority of people are not anti-trans. They are supportive or just not interested. The problem lies with the very small minority of trans activists who are trying to coerce the rest of us to not only accept self identification (fair enough) but use the law to enforce the right of Self ID trans to have access to women's spaces.

    I'm supportive of animal rights but not animal rights activists.
    I'm supportive of protection of the environment and action on climate change, but not of the extreme activists.
    The activists do more harm than good to their cause. Including trans activists.
    And yes I know about the suffragettes. I don't think the extremists helped their cause.
    She also routinely misgenders people. If she meant what she said above, she wouldn't. It strikes me as being like a racist who knows and likes one black person, and therefore thinks it excuses racism towards others. "Of course I'm not racist; an old friend of mine is black."

    I'm unsure that "The vast majority of people are not anti-trans." It'd be interesting to see figures on that.
    Even the tweet mocking David Tennant today is a low blow.

    One of Tennant's children is, IIRC, trans / gender non-conforming.

    To use an analogy people on here might understand, Leon didn't just get the banhammer for casual racism, it was because he offended to the core people whose partners and children are non-white, by implying their loved ones had less value than 'white babies'. And that felt like a visceral, personal attack.

    To some of us, trans people aren't just strange concepts that only exist in theory, they are our friends, family and loved ones. And when people make comments that seek to erase their existence, as Rowling frequently does, e.g. with the casual misgendering, it wounds to the very core.

    Rowling's transphobia is out there in the open for all to see.

    I don't want to get involved in a long, drawn out debate on the trans issue. But I do want to stand up for, and speak up for, the people I love.

    David Tennant wasn't some rich lefty engaging in virtue signalling. He was a father standing up for his child's right to exist.

    Nobody should be made to feel less valid as a human being because of the colour of their skin, their sexuality, or their gender identity. Rowling, sadly, has a great deal of form with the latter.
    But, his remark about Kemi Badenoch was disgraceful. He doesn’t get a pass.
    I don't think his quote that his "...life would be easier if she didn't exist" is disgraceful. Although my life is £74 better than it was this morning thanks to her existence, so there's that.
    There is a propensity for celebrities to have a trans child. Of course, no such thing as a trans child, just a parent proxying their transhaussen.
    So you mean like Elon Musk's sprog?
    Exactly like that. Coming as trans should be celebrated like coming out as anorexic.
    Oh fuck off, then fuck off some more, until you disappear into the horizon.

    I have mentioned a friend of mine and her kid is trans.

    I've known them since they were 9 and now 32 and they've never been happier than in the last 7 years since they felt comfortable in as identifying as trans.
    If they were anorexic, would you collude with them and encourage them in them identifying as fat ?
    A man thinking he is a woman and a thin person thinking they are fat are clearly both delusions. They are similar in that respect.

    But the former is harmless and the latter can kill you and needs intervention.
    I think that a very simplistic (and wrong) description of both anorexia and gender dysphoria.
    Why? A delusion is a false belief about an external reality.
    There is more than that to the definition of delusion too. Beliefs that are in keeping with a culture or sub culture (eg religious belief) fall outside the definition of delusion according to DSM IV.

    Gender dysphoria or incongruence is caused by the difference between inward gender identification and external body type. Trans people recognise their body is a different gender, indeed that is the source of their discomfort, so by definition they are not delusional.
    Sounds delusional to me.
    In your expert opinion?
    I'm no expert!! In my humble opinion. That's how it appears to me. Both conditions are potentially sad and need support. Does anyone disagree with that?
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    NEW: Keir Starmer will declare the small boats crisis a 'national security' threat next week and will launch a new Organised Immigration Crime Intelligence Unit

    [
    @kateferguson4
    ]
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1852813065714049042

    Excellent. That will have the people smugglers quaking in their boots.

    After the Budget I'm sure he can stretch to giving each member of staff a free wet lettuce, and a feather duster.
    It’s so disingenuous. He was constantly talking about the Tories’ failure to deal with the boats during the election campaign. And only now, after more than a hundred days in office, has he decided it’s actually worth doing something about.
    I believe you could have a fair number of valid criticisms to make of the current Government. However beating them up over failing to get a grip after four months of the small boats is a bit rich when your boys and girls dropped the ball several years ago, and their response was a stupid and very expensive stunt.
    I’m not beating them up for failing to get a grip. I’m beating them up for failing to even start the process of getting a grip.
    No sign of any new thinking about how to solve this problem either.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Trump: "Nothing is more dangerous than to give immense power to someone incompetent with a low IQ."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEyfrrAEFfU
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    Number of registered party members for each state

    2024
    https://archive.is/wl3zb

    2020
    https://web.archive.org/web/20201108011733/https://independentvoterproject.org/map

    Example: Nevada

    2020
    Population: 3,080,156
    Registered Voters: 1,827,386 (59.33% of pop.)
    Democratic Party: 698,044 (38.20%)
    Republican Party: 587,198 (32.13%)
    Third Party/Other: 118,233 (6.47%)
    Unaffiliated: 423,911 (23.20%)

    2024
    Total Registered Voters: 2,338,582
    Democrats: 737,184 (31.51%)
    Republicans: 678,328 (29.00%)
    Third Party/Other: 59,712 (2.55%)
    Unaffiliated: 863,358 (36.94%)

    Note that since 2020, over 500,000 people have registered but the number of unaffiliated has increased dramatically.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,707
    viewcode said:

    Labour’s support in Scotland has plunged in the wake of Rachel Reeves’s budget, which voters believe will hit them in their pockets and damage the country, a new poll has found.

    Backing for Anas Sarwar’s party has dropped to such an extent that it would be virtually impossible for him to form a Scottish government if the results were replicated at the Holyrood 2026 election.

    The poll by Norstat, the first conducted in Scotland since the chancellor unveiled her tax and spending plans, suggested that while voters felt warmly about the budget’s main policies, they felt that they would lose out overall.

    The research put support for Labour in Scottish parliamentary constituencies at 23 per cent, a drop of seven points since the last survey in August and the lowest since Nicola Sturgeon quit as first minister last March. Backing for Scottish Labour on the more proportional regional list fell by six points to 22 per cent.

    Analysis by Sir John Curtice, the polling expert and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, found this would leave Labour with 29 MSPs, an increase of seven on its current level.

    The SNP has failed to capitalise on Labour’s woes — remaining unchanged on 33 per cent for constituency votes and increasing backing by only one point to 29 per cent on the regional list — but its projected return of 51 MSPs would almost certainly see John Swinney remain first minister despite losing 13 seats compared with the 2021 election.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-labour-popularity-poll-rachel-reeves-budget-2024-5jmhqwjkr

    It's Scotland, so a real longshot,but one wonders what the upper limits of how well the SCons might do up there are.
    When was the last time we had a party leader with a name as ostentatiously Scottish as Badenoch?
    David CAMERON
    Gordon BROWN
    Tony BLAIR
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ND-SVKrvCxs

    McGlashan explains Scotland's true place in world history.

    I wish modern Scottish TV was still brave enough to do this kind of thing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    viewcode said:

    Number of registered party members for each state

    2024
    https://archive.is/wl3zb

    2020
    https://web.archive.org/web/20201108011733/https://independentvoterproject.org/map

    Example: Nevada

    2020
    Population: 3,080,156
    Registered Voters: 1,827,386 (59.33% of pop.)
    Democratic Party: 698,044 (38.20%)
    Republican Party: 587,198 (32.13%)
    Third Party/Other: 118,233 (6.47%)
    Unaffiliated: 423,911 (23.20%)

    2024
    Total Registered Voters: 2,338,582
    Democrats: 737,184 (31.51%)
    Republicans: 678,328 (29.00%)
    Third Party/Other: 59,712 (2.55%)
    Unaffiliated: 863,358 (36.94%)

    Note that since 2020, over 500,000 people have registered but the number of unaffiliated has increased dramatically.

    That's due to automatic voter registration with driving licence renewal isn't it?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Barnesian said:

    She really has curdled into a petty, old boot.

    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1852715478461890626

    May be, like Tennant, you “just wish [her] to shut up”?

    Or dream of a world where you wake up and she “ doesn’t exist”?

    (Snip)
    The problem is that many anti-trans people don't want trans people to exist, deny they exist, and/or want to make it impossible for them to transition at any age.

    Hence calling transmen "confused lesbians", or transwomen "men in skirts", and the attempts to stop trans people from using womens toilets.
    That is definitely not Rowling's position.
    On her blog:
    "Again and again I’ve been told to ‘just meet some trans people.’ I have: in addition to a few younger people, who were all adorable, I happen to know a self-described transsexual woman who’s older than I am and wonderful. Although she’s open about her past as a gay man, I’ve always found it hard to think of her as anything other than a woman, and I believe (and certainly hope) she’s completely happy to have transitioned. Being older, though, she went through a long and rigorous process of evaluation, psychotherapy and staged transformation. The current explosion of trans activism is urging a removal of almost all the robust systems through which candidates for sex reassignment were once required to pass. A man who intends to have no surgery and take no hormones may now secure himself a Gender Recognition Certificate and be a woman in the sight of the law."
    That's the issue. The vast majority of people are not anti-trans. They are supportive or just not interested. The problem lies with the very small minority of trans activists who are trying to coerce the rest of us to not only accept self identification (fair enough) but use the law to enforce the right of Self ID trans to have access to women's spaces.

    I'm supportive of animal rights but not animal rights activists.
    I'm supportive of protection of the environment and action on climate change, but not of the extreme activists.
    The activists do more harm than good to their cause. Including trans activists.
    And yes I know about the suffragettes. I don't think the extremists helped their cause.
    She also routinely misgenders people. If she meant what she said above, she wouldn't. It strikes me as being like a racist who knows and likes one black person, and therefore thinks it excuses racism towards others. "Of course I'm not racist; an old friend of mine is black."

    I'm unsure that "The vast majority of people are not anti-trans." It'd be interesting to see figures on that.
    Even the tweet mocking David Tennant today is a low blow.

    One of Tennant's children is, IIRC, trans / gender non-conforming.

    To use an analogy people on here might understand, Leon didn't just get the banhammer for casual racism, it was because he offended to the core people whose partners and children are non-white, by implying their loved ones had less value than 'white babies'. And that felt like a visceral, personal attack.

    To some of us, trans people aren't just strange concepts that only exist in theory, they are our friends, family and loved ones. And when people make comments that seek to erase their existence, as Rowling frequently does, e.g. with the casual misgendering, it wounds to the very core.

    Rowling's transphobia is out there in the open for all to see.

    I don't want to get involved in a long, drawn out debate on the trans issue. But I do want to stand up for, and speak up for, the people I love.

    David Tennant wasn't some rich lefty engaging in virtue signalling. He was a father standing up for his child's right to exist.

    Nobody should be made to feel less valid as a human being because of the colour of their skin, their sexuality, or their gender identity. Rowling, sadly, has a great deal of form with the latter.
    But, his remark about Kemi Badenoch was disgraceful. He doesn’t get a pass.
    I don't think his quote that his "...life would be easier if she didn't exist" is disgraceful. Although my life is £74 better than it was this morning thanks to her existence, so there's that.
    There is a propensity for celebrities to have a trans child. Of course, no such thing as a trans child, just a parent proxying their transhaussen.
    So you mean like Elon Musk's sprog?
    Exactly like that. Coming as trans should be celebrated like coming out as anorexic.
    Oh fuck off, then fuck off some more, until you disappear into the horizon.

    I have mentioned a friend of mine and her kid is trans.

    I've known them since they were 9 and now 32 and they've never been happier than in the last 7 years since they felt comfortable in as identifying as trans.
    If they were anorexic, would you collude with them and encourage them in them identifying as fat ?
    A man thinking he is a woman and a thin person thinking they are fat are clearly both delusions. They are similar in that respect.

    But the former is harmless and the latter can kill you and needs intervention.
    I think that a very simplistic (and wrong) description of both anorexia and gender dysphoria.
    Why? A delusion is a false belief about an external reality.
    There is more than that to the definition of delusion too. Beliefs that are in keeping with a culture or sub culture (eg religious belief) fall outside the definition of delusion according to DSM IV.

    Gender dysphoria or incongruence is caused by the difference between inward gender identification and external body type. Trans people recognise their body is a different gender, indeed that is the source of their discomfort, so by definition they are not delusional.
    Sounds delusional to me.
    In your expert opinion?
    I'm no expert!! In my humble opinion. That's how it appears to me. Both conditions are potentially sad and need support. Does anyone disagree with that?
    Depends what you mean by "support".
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Reeves/Starmer's budget has now 'crashed the economy' more than Kwarteng/Truss's minibudget.

    https://order-order.com/2024/10/31/reeves-trashes-the-gilt-market-rates-spike-higher-today-than-after-the-truss-budget/
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,707

    Trump: "Nothing is more dangerous than to give immense power to someone incompetent with a low IQ."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEyfrrAEFfU

    This just links me to what seems like a live stream?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548
    viewcode said:

    Labour’s support in Scotland has plunged in the wake of Rachel Reeves’s budget, which voters believe will hit them in their pockets and damage the country, a new poll has found.

    Backing for Anas Sarwar’s party has dropped to such an extent that it would be virtually impossible for him to form a Scottish government if the results were replicated at the Holyrood 2026 election.

    The poll by Norstat, the first conducted in Scotland since the chancellor unveiled her tax and spending plans, suggested that while voters felt warmly about the budget’s main policies, they felt that they would lose out overall.

    The research put support for Labour in Scottish parliamentary constituencies at 23 per cent, a drop of seven points since the last survey in August and the lowest since Nicola Sturgeon quit as first minister last March. Backing for Scottish Labour on the more proportional regional list fell by six points to 22 per cent.

    Analysis by Sir John Curtice, the polling expert and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, found this would leave Labour with 29 MSPs, an increase of seven on its current level.

    The SNP has failed to capitalise on Labour’s woes — remaining unchanged on 33 per cent for constituency votes and increasing backing by only one point to 29 per cent on the regional list — but its projected return of 51 MSPs would almost certainly see John Swinney remain first minister despite losing 13 seats compared with the 2021 election.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scottish-labour-popularity-poll-rachel-reeves-budget-2024-5jmhqwjkr

    It's Scotland, so a real longshot,but one wonders what the upper limits of how well the SCons might do up there are.
    When was the last time we had a party leader with a name as ostentatiously Scottish as Badenoch?
    David CAMERON
    Gordon BROWN
    Tony BLAIR
    KEIR Starmer
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,707

    Reeves/Starmer's budget has now 'crashed the economy' more than Kwarteng/Truss's minibudget.

    https://order-order.com/2024/10/31/reeves-trashes-the-gilt-market-rates-spike-higher-today-than-after-the-truss-budget/

    Not nearly as comedic though. Liz had the comic timing down pat.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    ohnotnow said:

    Trump: "Nothing is more dangerous than to give immense power to someone incompetent with a low IQ."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEyfrrAEFfU

    This just links me to what seems like a live stream?
    Yes, he said it in the moment before I posted. You can hear it if you rewind a few minutes.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 220
    Kyle Kondik

    @kkondik

    ·

    5m

    holy smokes --- Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 220
    Nunu3 said:

    Kyle Kondik

    @kkondik

    ·

    5m

    holy smokes --- Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

    Nunu3 said:

    Kyle Kondik

    @kkondik

    ·

    5m

    holy smokes --- Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

    this poll has been very right last few cycles
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    NEW: Keir Starmer will declare the small boats crisis a 'national security' threat next week and will launch a new Organised Immigration Crime Intelligence Unit

    [
    @kateferguson4
    ]
    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1852813065714049042

    Typical solution of a flailing technocrat - establish a new "unit" - that'll solve everything. He'll be setting up a Royal Commission next I imagine.

    He's totally out of his depth. Unlike the migrants as they stream onto our beaches.
    I'm sure he already launched a new task force. Silly twunt.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Nunu3 said:

    Kyle Kondik

    @kkondik

    ·

    5m

    holy smokes --- Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1852849358351257861

    General election poll - Iowa

    🔴 Trump 54% (+8)
    🔵 Harris 45%

    Emerson #B - 800 LV - 11/2
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Dramatic polling news out of the USA .

    The Gold Standard in Iowa polling

    Selzer has just released this !

    Harris 47
    Trump 44
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    .

    Trump: "Nothing is more dangerous than to give immense power to someone incompetent with a low IQ."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEyfrrAEFfU

    A possible unique confession from the incompetent dumbass.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    Barnesian said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Barnesian said:

    She really has curdled into a petty, old boot.

    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1852715478461890626

    May be, like Tennant, you “just wish [her] to shut up”?

    Or dream of a world where you wake up and she “ doesn’t exist”?

    (Snip)
    The problem is that many anti-trans people don't want trans people to exist, deny they exist, and/or want to make it impossible for them to transition at any age.

    Hence calling transmen "confused lesbians", or transwomen "men in skirts", and the attempts to stop trans people from using womens toilets.
    That is definitely not Rowling's position.
    On her blog:
    "Again and again I’ve been told to ‘just meet some trans people.’ I have: in addition to a few younger people, who were all adorable, I happen to know a self-described transsexual woman who’s older than I am and wonderful. Although she’s open about her past as a gay man, I’ve always found it hard to think of her as anything other than a woman, and I believe (and certainly hope) she’s completely happy to have transitioned. Being older, though, she went through a long and rigorous process of evaluation, psychotherapy and staged transformation. The current explosion of trans activism is urging a removal of almost all the robust systems through which candidates for sex reassignment were once required to pass. A man who intends to have no surgery and take no hormones may now secure himself a Gender Recognition Certificate and be a woman in the sight of the law."
    That's the issue. The vast majority of people are not anti-trans. They are supportive or just not interested. The problem lies with the very small minority of trans activists who are trying to coerce the rest of us to not only accept self identification (fair enough) but use the law to enforce the right of Self ID trans to have access to women's spaces.

    I'm supportive of animal rights but not animal rights activists.
    I'm supportive of protection of the environment and action on climate change, but not of the extreme activists.
    The activists do more harm than good to their cause. Including trans activists.
    And yes I know about the suffragettes. I don't think the extremists helped their cause.
    She also routinely misgenders people. If she meant what she said above, she wouldn't. It strikes me as being like a racist who knows and likes one black person, and therefore thinks it excuses racism towards others. "Of course I'm not racist; an old friend of mine is black."

    I'm unsure that "The vast majority of people are not anti-trans." It'd be interesting to see figures on that.
    Even the tweet mocking David Tennant today is a low blow.

    One of Tennant's children is, IIRC, trans / gender non-conforming.

    To use an analogy people on here might understand, Leon didn't just get the banhammer for casual racism, it was because he offended to the core people whose partners and children are non-white, by implying their loved ones had less value than 'white babies'. And that felt like a visceral, personal attack.

    To some of us, trans people aren't just strange concepts that only exist in theory, they are our friends, family and loved ones. And when people make comments that seek to erase their existence, as Rowling frequently does, e.g. with the casual misgendering, it wounds to the very core.

    Rowling's transphobia is out there in the open for all to see.

    I don't want to get involved in a long, drawn out debate on the trans issue. But I do want to stand up for, and speak up for, the people I love.

    David Tennant wasn't some rich lefty engaging in virtue signalling. He was a father standing up for his child's right to exist.

    Nobody should be made to feel less valid as a human being because of the colour of their skin, their sexuality, or their gender identity. Rowling, sadly, has a great deal of form with the latter.
    But, his remark about Kemi Badenoch was disgraceful. He doesn’t get a pass.
    I don't think his quote that his "...life would be easier if she didn't exist" is disgraceful. Although my life is £74 better than it was this morning thanks to her existence, so there's that.
    There is a propensity for celebrities to have a trans child. Of course, no such thing as a trans child, just a parent proxying their transhaussen.
    So you mean like Elon Musk's sprog?
    Exactly like that. Coming as trans should be celebrated like coming out as anorexic.
    Oh fuck off, then fuck off some more, until you disappear into the horizon.

    I have mentioned a friend of mine and her kid is trans.

    I've known them since they were 9 and now 32 and they've never been happier than in the last 7 years since they felt comfortable in as identifying as trans.
    If they were anorexic, would you collude with them and encourage them in them identifying as fat ?
    A man thinking he is a woman and a thin person thinking they are fat are clearly both delusions. They are similar in that respect.

    But the former is harmless and the latter can kill you and needs intervention.
    I think that a very simplistic (and wrong) description of both anorexia and gender dysphoria.
    Why? A delusion is a false belief about an external reality.
    There is more than that to the definition of delusion too. Beliefs that are in keeping with a culture or sub culture (eg religious belief) fall outside the definition of delusion according to DSM IV.

    Gender dysphoria or incongruence is caused by the difference between inward gender identification and external body type. Trans people recognise their body is a different gender, indeed that is the source of their discomfort, so by definition they are not delusional.
    Sounds delusional to me.
    In your expert opinion?
    I'm no expert!! In my humble opinion. That's how it appears to me. Both conditions are potentially sad and need support. Does anyone disagree with that?
    Depends what you mean by "support".
    Listen to them. Offer empathy. Respect them. Don't challenge them.
    But I'm not an expert in this area. Others will be more experienced.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    OM fucking God


    Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    edited November 2
    ohnotnow said:

    Reeves/Starmer's budget has now 'crashed the economy' more than Kwarteng/Truss's minibudget.

    https://order-order.com/2024/10/31/reeves-trashes-the-gilt-market-rates-spike-higher-today-than-after-the-truss-budget/

    Not nearly as comedic though. Liz had the comic timing down pat.
    Starmer and Reeves prefer dishing out their misery unlevened by amusement.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.

    https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/
  • EconewEconew Posts: 4
    That Selzer poll for the Des Moines Register is genuinely jaw dropping stuff. Wow.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Even if Harris doesn’t win Iowa but gets close this can act as a marker towards Wisconsin etc .

    The poll is still a massive shock but the history of Selzer reaches mythical proportions in that area .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Kaboom!!!!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.

    https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

    Selzar had Trump at +7 in both 2016 and 2020. Harris is +3 this time round.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,925

    OM fucking God


    Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

    I don't believe Harris will win Iowa - although the Des Moines Register has a pretty good polling record. But I do believe the poll is evidence that Harris is outperforming with white voters in the Midwest, and inversely, is doing worse with black and Hispanic voters.

  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,707

    Kaboom!!!!

    Is this the new 'Brace!'?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Calm down everyone. The Emerson Iowa poll out today has Trump 10% ahead.

    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-iowa-poll-trump-53-harris-43/
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    ohnotnow said:

    Reeves/Starmer's budget has now 'crashed the economy' more than Kwarteng/Truss's minibudget.

    https://order-order.com/2024/10/31/reeves-trashes-the-gilt-market-rates-spike-higher-today-than-after-the-truss-budget/

    Not nearly as comedic though. Liz had the comic timing down pat.
    Starmer and Reeves prefer dishing out their misery unlevened by amusement.
    You’ve got them sussed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Oh God I can't take this. The hope...


    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    6m
    Selzer is one of the most accurate pollsters in the country. Trump is TOAST.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 654

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Barnesian said:

    She really has curdled into a petty, old boot.

    https://x.com/jk_rowling/status/1852715478461890626

    May be, like Tennant, you “just wish [her] to shut up”?

    Or dream of a world where you wake up and she “ doesn’t exist”?

    (Snip)
    The problem is that many anti-trans people don't want trans people to exist, deny they exist, and/or want to make it impossible for them to transition at any age.

    Hence calling transmen "confused lesbians", or transwomen "men in skirts", and the attempts to stop trans people from using womens toilets.
    That is definitely not Rowling's position.
    On her blog:
    "Again and again I’ve been told to ‘just meet some trans people.’ I have: in addition to a few younger people, who were all adorable, I happen to know a self-described transsexual woman who’s older than I am and wonderful. Although she’s open about her past as a gay man, I’ve always found it hard to think of her as anything other than a woman, and I believe (and certainly hope) she’s completely happy to have transitioned. Being older, though, she went through a long and rigorous process of evaluation, psychotherapy and staged transformation. The current explosion of trans activism is urging a removal of almost all the robust systems through which candidates for sex reassignment were once required to pass. A man who intends to have no surgery and take no hormones may now secure himself a Gender Recognition Certificate and be a woman in the sight of the law."
    That's the issue. The vast majority of people are not anti-trans. They are supportive or just not interested. The problem lies with the very small minority of trans activists who are trying to coerce the rest of us to not only accept self identification (fair enough) but use the law to enforce the right of Self ID trans to have access to women's spaces.

    I'm supportive of animal rights but not animal rights activists.
    I'm supportive of protection of the environment and action on climate change, but not of the extreme activists.
    The activists do more harm than good to their cause. Including trans activists.
    And yes I know about the suffragettes. I don't think the extremists helped their cause.
    She also routinely misgenders people. If she meant what she said above, she wouldn't. It strikes me as being like a racist who knows and likes one black person, and therefore thinks it excuses racism towards others. "Of course I'm not racist; an old friend of mine is black."

    I'm unsure that "The vast majority of people are not anti-trans." It'd be interesting to see figures on that.
    Even the tweet mocking David Tennant today is a low blow.

    One of Tennant's children is, IIRC, trans / gender non-conforming.

    To use an analogy people on here might understand, Leon didn't just get the banhammer for casual racism, it was because he offended to the core people whose partners and children are non-white, by implying their loved ones had less value than 'white babies'. And that felt like a visceral, personal attack.

    To some of us, trans people aren't just strange concepts that only exist in theory, they are our friends, family and loved ones. And when people make comments that seek to erase their existence, as Rowling frequently does, e.g. with the casual misgendering, it wounds to the very core.

    Rowling's transphobia is out there in the open for all to see.

    I don't want to get involved in a long, drawn out debate on the trans issue. But I do want to stand up for, and speak up for, the people I love.

    David Tennant wasn't some rich lefty engaging in virtue signalling. He was a father standing up for his child's right to exist.

    Nobody should be made to feel less valid as a human being because of the colour of their skin, their sexuality, or their gender identity. Rowling, sadly, has a great deal of form with the latter.
    But, his remark about Kemi Badenoch was disgraceful. He doesn’t get a pass.
    I don't think his quote that his "...life would be easier if she didn't exist" is disgraceful. Although my life is £74 better than it was this morning thanks to her existence, so there's that.
    There is a propensity for celebrities to have a trans child. Of course, no such thing as a trans child, just a parent proxying their transhaussen.
    So you mean like Elon Musk's sprog?
    Exactly like that. Coming as trans should be celebrated like coming out as anorexic.
    Oh fuck off, then fuck off some more, until you disappear into the horizon.

    I have mentioned a friend of mine and her kid is trans.

    I've known them since they were 9 and now 32 and they've never been happier than in the last 7 years since they felt comfortable in as identifying as trans.
    If they were anorexic, would you collude with them and encourage them in them identifying as fat ?
    If you genuinely think being trans is analogous to being anorexic then there's no point in having a discussion with you.
    There are many different types of people who go under the umbrella category of 'trans'. I suspect you are talking at cross purposes because you have a different types in mind.
    There is an umbrella although there are plenty of people who seem to hate the entire spectrum. They complain on the one hand about people 'mutilating' themselves with surgery or pills and also complain about people identifying as Trans when they have no intention of changing their bodies to look like the other sex.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,797
    I’ve backed Harris in Iowa, back in August - a whole £3 mind. But Selzer is the gold standard of Iowa polling.

    Iowa was never Alabama.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    rcs1000 said:

    OM fucking God


    Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

    I don't believe Harris will win Iowa - although the Des Moines Register has a pretty good polling record. But I do believe the poll is evidence that Harris is outperforming with white voters in the Midwest, and inversely, is doing worse with black and Hispanic voters.

    12/1 for Harris in Iowa with Ladbrokes. I've had a nibble.

    It's the Coach Walz effect perhaps.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Oh God I can't take this. The hope...


    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    6m
    Selzer is one of the most accurate pollsters in the country. Trump is TOAST.

    A make or break moment for Ann Selzer's reputation.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,707

    ohnotnow said:

    Trump: "Nothing is more dangerous than to give immense power to someone incompetent with a low IQ."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEyfrrAEFfU

    This just links me to what seems like a live stream?
    Yes, he said it in the moment before I posted. You can hear it if you rewind a few minutes.
    A few minutes from now, or when you posted it? Relative to the current stream or the start of it? I feel like this is an IQ test future generations and myself are doomed to fail.
  • EconewEconew Posts: 4

    Calm down everyone. The Emerson Iowa poll out today has Trump 10% ahead.

    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-iowa-poll-trump-53-harris-43/

    Final Iowa polls 2020:

    Emerson: Trump +1
    Selzer/Des Moines Register: Trump +7

    Final result: Trump +8.2
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    ohnotnow said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Trump: "Nothing is more dangerous than to give immense power to someone incompetent with a low IQ."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEyfrrAEFfU

    This just links me to what seems like a live stream?
    Yes, he said it in the moment before I posted. You can hear it if you rewind a few minutes.
    A few minutes from now, or when you posted it? Relative to the current stream or the start of it? I feel like this is an IQ test future generations and myself are doomed to fail.
    The safest thing is to rewind to the beginning so you don't miss a moment's entertainment.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    This is going to have the Trump campaign in total panic .

    Harris should invest in Iowa and get some ads out in the final days of the campaign .
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.

    https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

    LOL.

    Someone’s going to look pretty bloody stupid next week.
    We just don’t know who yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,275
    edited November 2
    rcs1000 said:

    OM fucking God


    Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

    I don't believe Harris will win Iowa - although the Des Moines Register has a pretty good polling record. But I do believe the poll is evidence that Harris is outperforming with white voters in the Midwest, and inversely, is doing worse with black and Hispanic voters.

    Indeed, the election looks more like 2000 or 2004 now.

    Then Gore won Iowa and Gore and Kerry won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and won more white Midwestern voters than Hillary in particular but Bush made inroads with Blacks and Hispanics especially and twice won Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina.

    Though Bush also won Virginia and Colorado twice and New Mexico and New Hampshire once and if Trump lost Iowa and the bluewall states he would need to win almost all the states Bush won including at least one or two of the former 4 which are states that rejected him in 2016 and 2020
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    edited November 2
    Nigelb said:

    Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.

    https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

    LOL.

    Someone’s going to look pretty bloody stupid next week.
    We just don’t know who yet.
    J. Ann Selzer is gold level pollster.

    It's worth its weight just to think of Trump's panic and fear. The orange jump suit and thin gruel just got a lot closer...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Nigelb said:

    Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.

    https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

    LOL.

    Someone’s going to look pretty bloody stupid next week.
    We just don’t know who yet.
    There's not herding, and there's this.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,707

    ohnotnow said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Trump: "Nothing is more dangerous than to give immense power to someone incompetent with a low IQ."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEyfrrAEFfU

    This just links me to what seems like a live stream?
    Yes, he said it in the moment before I posted. You can hear it if you rewind a few minutes.
    A few minutes from now, or when you posted it? Relative to the current stream or the start of it? I feel like this is an IQ test future generations and myself are doomed to fail.
    The safest thing is to rewind to the beginning so you don't miss a moment's entertainment.
    I have some hot coal-dust and vinegar to rub in my eyes beforehand.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    rcs1000 said:

    OM fucking God


    Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

    I don't believe Harris will win Iowa - although the Des Moines Register has a pretty good polling record. But I do believe the poll is evidence that Harris is outperforming with white voters in the Midwest, and inversely, is doing worse with black and Hispanic voters.

    The Sun Belt is going to be bloodbath for Kam - Trump will sweep the lot for 269, so even with Penn and Mich and whisky, Kam is short.

    The moment Trump snicks a Rusty, game over.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Nigelb said:

    Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.

    https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

    LOL.

    Someone’s going to look pretty bloody stupid next week.
    We just don’t know who yet.
    I still think Trump is likely to win there but if it’s close that suggests Harris is doing better with white voters than Biden did .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    nico679 said:

    This is going to have the Trump campaign in total panic .

    Harris should invest in Iowa and get some ads out in the final days of the campaign .

    She should fly out now and do a rally first thing tomorrow.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    nico679 said:

    This is going to have the Trump campaign in total panic .

    Harris should invest in Iowa and get some ads out in the final days of the campaign .

    I think her closing ad, going out this weekend strikes the right note.

    https://youtu.be/U6bv6jYEVAs?feature=shared
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,797
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OM fucking God


    Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

    I don't believe Harris will win Iowa - although the Des Moines Register has a pretty good polling record. But I do believe the poll is evidence that Harris is outperforming with white voters in the Midwest, and inversely, is doing worse with black and Hispanic voters.

    Indeed, the election looks more like 2000 or 2004 now.

    Then Gore won Iowa and Gore and Kerry won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but Bush made inroads with Blacks and Hispanics especially and twice won Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina.

    Though Bush also won Virginia and Colorado twice and New Mexico and New Hampshire once and if Trump lost Iowa and the bluewall states he would need to win almost all the states Bush won including at least one of the former 3 which are states that rejected him in 2016 and 2020
    Nah, this election is 2008 redux
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    nico679 said:

    This is going to have the Trump campaign in total panic .

    Harris should invest in Iowa and get some ads out in the final days of the campaign .

    She should fly out now and do a rally first thing tomorrow.
    No, if she is winning Iowa then she has the Midwest, but WI, MI and PA are where it will be decided. Stick to the plan.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Nigelb said:

    Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.

    https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

    LOL.

    Someone’s going to look pretty bloody stupid next week.
    We just don’t know who yet.
    J. Ann Selzer is gold level pollster.

    It's worth its weight just to think of Trump's panic and fear. The orange jump suit and thin gruel just got a lot closer...
    I tend to believe her rather than Emerson, obvs.
    But this is a weird election to poll.

    It’s either a Harris landslide… or not.
    I’m not going to think about crowing until the results are in.

    But yes, in the meantime, watching GOP panic will be fun.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    This is going to have the Trump campaign in total panic .

    Harris should invest in Iowa and get some ads out in the final days of the campaign .

    I think her closing ad, going out this weekend strikes the right note.

    https://youtu.be/U6bv6jYEVAs?feature=shared
    Interestingly she never mentions Trump in that ad . It’s a very positive ad overall which will be a world away from the likely hateful divisive Trump one .
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548
    viewcode said:

    Number of registered party members for each state

    2024
    https://archive.is/wl3zb

    2020
    https://web.archive.org/web/20201108011733/https://independentvoterproject.org/map

    Example: Nevada

    2020
    Population: 3,080,156
    Registered Voters: 1,827,386 (59.33% of pop.)
    Democratic Party: 698,044 (38.20%)
    Republican Party: 587,198 (32.13%)
    Third Party/Other: 118,233 (6.47%)
    Unaffiliated: 423,911 (23.20%)

    2024
    Total Registered Voters: 2,338,582
    Democrats: 737,184 (31.51%)
    Republicans: 678,328 (29.00%)
    Third Party/Other: 59,712 (2.55%)
    Unaffiliated: 863,358 (36.94%)

    Note that since 2020, over 500,000 people have registered but the number of unaffiliated has increased dramatically.

    Nevada Sec of State voter reg statistics making pretty much same point:

    https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/voter-registration-statistics

    Note that in addition to rise in share of (officially) Nonpartisan voters in the great Silver State, the number of 3rd-party voters has been cut in half since 2020.

    Further note that rapid, massive changes in population demographics AND party affiliation have been the norm for Nevada since WWI. Thus making forecasts based on previous POTUS is at best a crapshoot . . . at worst prospecting for fools gold.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)

    2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
    2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
    2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
    2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
    2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
    2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
    2012 President: D+5 (D+6)

    https://x.com/MattKleinOnline/status/1852849716788084910
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    This is going to have the Trump campaign in total panic .

    Harris should invest in Iowa and get some ads out in the final days of the campaign .

    She should fly out now and do a rally first thing tomorrow.
    No, if she is winning Iowa then she has the Midwest, but WI, MI and PA are where it will be decided. Stick to the plan.
    I meant it as a way of winding up Trump even more. Quick in and out job.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,275
    edited November 2

    HYUFD said:

    If Trump loses, who will go next? Will Trump have another go?

    DeSantis and Haley would be frontrunners if he loses, Vance if he wins as incumbent VP
    Haley is the Tugendhat of the Republicans.
    Indeed, DeSantis the Badenoch and Vance the Jenrick and Trump a hybrid of Boris and Farage and Harris a hybrid of Diane Abbott and Rayner and Starmer a less senile Biden
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,797
    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    This is going to have the Trump campaign in total panic .

    Harris should invest in Iowa and get some ads out in the final days of the campaign .

    I think her closing ad, going out this weekend strikes the right note.

    https://youtu.be/U6bv6jYEVAs?feature=shared
    Interestingly she never mentions Trump in that ad . It’s a very positive ad overall which will be a world away from the likely hateful divisive Trump one .
    Her campaign is for the ages. Pitch perfect throughout.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    rcs1000 said:

    OM fucking God


    Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

    I don't believe Harris will win Iowa - although the Des Moines Register has a pretty good polling record. But I do believe the poll is evidence that Harris is outperforming with white voters in the Midwest, and inversely, is doing worse with black and Hispanic voters.

    The Sun Belt is going to be bloodbath for Kam - Trump will sweep the lot for 269, so even with Penn and Mich and whisky, Kam is short.

    The moment Trump snicks a Rusty, game over.
    You can’t count.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Trump loses, who will go next? Will Trump have another go?

    DeSantis and Haley would be frontrunners if he loses, Vance if he wins as incumbent VP
    Haley is the Tugendhat of the Republicans.
    Indeed, DeSantis the Badenoch and Vance the Jenrick and Trump a hybrid of Boris and Farage and Harris a hybrid of Diane Abbott and Rayner and Starmer a less senile Biden
    So you’re saying they’re all shit ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    I don't understand the idea the Royal Family should live like the rest of us. That would mean they weren't Royal.

    I can understand (although on a pragmatic basis disagree with) republicanism. But not that.

    Cancer can affect anyone, Royal or not.
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