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Ladbrokes think the Tory contest winner will not lead the party at the GE – politicalbetting.com

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934
    kinabalu said:

    Unpleasant behaviour from betfair this morning. Trump has shortened to 1.87. Does anyone know why? I can't see any new polls to justify it.

    Probably Musk having fun. What's the point of being a quadrillionaire if you can't mess with markets?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934

    People are focussing on the 4000mph winds set to batter the UK, causing total destruction of all life and property.

    But the really worrying thing is they are meant to be north easterly winds, so there's a real risk of some sleet as well.

    On the plus side,we can finally see WIthernsea slip into the North Sea...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379

    Nigelb said:

    If the BBC's weather forecast for my town today is accurate, I might not have a house left later...



    5465 MPH winds!

    But only 3508 MPH in London:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

    Pathetic. In Worthing it's 11528 mph
    Are we expecting an asteroid impact, then ?
    The model watched Threads last night and got the jitters.

    [I watched it, and the thing that shocked Mrs Flatlander most was the picture of a jammed road (the A1?) with Elm trees. Big Elm trees. Lost forever.]
    "The model"???
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    I would just say on your last sentence, I have not been a Jenrick supporter at anytime and it is fairly obvious that I would support Badenoch just because she is not Jenrick

    I really do not know much about Badenoch, but it does seem conservative opponents are out celebrating but who knows what will happen over the next few years with such a volatile and disillusioned electorate

    I will wait and watch with interest but will not rejoin the party as I would have if Cleverly had won
    The electorate are volatile. But that is a function of consistent failure. The reason for the consistent failure is consistent as well.

    "It's all nonsense. It was only 63K pages of document that were relevant."
    I'm sure that we've passed the tipping point where it is now far more profitable to be a consultant or lawyer involved in 'process' than to be the producer of the end product.

    Especially so when there is no end product to produce.

    Not to mention a lot lower risk - the producer can be liable to legal action if things go wrong.
    Indeed. Without productivity metrics, just keep charging by the hour to *produce* documents - But they are mostly machine generated! they whine.....

    Even if you have to buy some land, you are not actually paying for it. That's the government. You are just collecting fees for buying it. And when the projects collapses, selling it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    kinabalu said:

    Unpleasant behaviour from betfair this morning. Trump has shortened to 1.87. Does anyone know why? I can't see any new polls to justify it.

    The American election involve a large quantity of partisan thinking. In it's most extreme form.

    We have seen, many times in the past, people believing that odds mean something beyond how much money has been put on the *belief* that something will happen. That betting on Their Candidate somehow effects the real world.

    Suckers in a market are a valuable resource.
    Ok so nothing in particular then. Good.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,807

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    I dislike Jenrick for the corruption on planning applications, and the performative heartlessness of painting over cartoon characters to be tough on asylum-seeking children. But put words into my mouth to create a strawman if it makes you feel better.
    Thanks, I will.

    I think you'd have fallen over yourself to forget any past indescretions on Jenrick's part if his politics was aligned with yours, and he was campaigning to integrate more closely with Europe rather than leaving the ECHR. Just like everyone forgot that Cleverly was a gaffe machine with no Ministerial achievements and a dangerous attitude to China that culminated in gaily signing over British sovereign territory to a China-aligned state, then idiotically trying to hammer Labour over it.

    Just like people who claim to have been disgusted by Boris' venal approach to Government, but don't give a crap when SKS's bunch are up to the same thing.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited October 10

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    I would just say on your last sentence, I have not been a Jenrick supporter at anytime and it is fairly obvious that I would support Badenoch just because she is not Jenrick

    I really do not know much about Badenoch, but it does seem conservative opponents are out celebrating but who knows what will happen over the next few years with such a volatile and disillusioned electorate

    I will wait and watch with interest but will not rejoin the party as I would have if Cleverly had won
    The electorate are volatile. But that is a function of consistent failure. The reason for the consistent failure is consistent as well.

    "It's all nonsense. It was only 63K pages of document that were relevant."
    I'm sure that we've passed the tipping point where it is now far more profitable to be a consultant or lawyer involved in 'process' than to be the producer of the end product.

    Especially so when there is no end product to produce.

    Not to mention a lot lower risk - the producer can be liable to legal action if things go wrong.
    Indeed. Without productivity metrics, just keep charging by the hour to *produce* documents - But they are mostly machine generated! they whine.....

    Even if you have to buy some land, you are not actually paying for it. That's the government. You are just collecting fees for buying it. And when the projects collapses, selling it.
    The people who were betting on Trump as next president in 2020 after he had lost the election. There were quite a few of them iirc. Probably bought shares in Truth Social too.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited October 10

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    I would just say on your last sentence, I have not been a Jenrick supporter at anytime and it is fairly obvious that I would support Badenoch just because she is not Jenrick

    I really do not know much about Badenoch, but it does seem conservative opponents are out celebrating but who knows what will happen over the next few years with such a volatile and disillusioned electorate

    I will wait and watch with interest but will not rejoin the party as I would have if Cleverly had won
    The electorate are volatile. But that is a function of consistent failure. The reason for the consistent failure is consistent as well.

    "It's all nonsense. It was only 63K pages of document that were relevant."
    I'm sure that we've passed the tipping point where it is now far more profitable to be a consultant or lawyer involved in 'process' than to be the producer of the end product.

    Especially so when there is no end product to produce.

    Not to mention a lot lower risk - the producer can be liable to legal action if things go wrong.
    Indeed. Without productivity metrics, just keep charging by the hour to *produce* documents - But they are mostly machine generated! they whine.....

    Even if you have to buy some land, you are not actually paying for it. That's the government. You are just collecting fees for buying it. And when the projects collapses, selling it.
    The people who were betting on Trump as next president in 2020 after he had lost the election. There were quite a few of them iirc. Probably bought shares in Truth Social too.
    There is a serious point to all this. It helps establish a narrative that all the polling was very close/ showing Trump narrowly ahead - so the only explanation for Harris winning big (as I think she will) will be massive electoral fraud - i.e. Stop the Steal redux.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    edited October 10
    moonshine said:

    Israel say their response will be lethal and surprising. I wonder if they’ve got something up their sleeve like a mass hack attack that permanently disables loads of economic or military hardware. Or perhaps a special forces snatch squad taking their own hostages from the ranks of Iranian military command, to setup an exchange.

    The genius of the Israeli pager-and-toaster attack is that it’s conjured the idea the Israelis are so clever they can do anything. And will

    Already Iranian clerics have gone on TV saying the Jews are “magic demons” with “special juju” - literally - so anyone remotely prone to superstition or paranoia - eg the entire Iranian theocracy - is now pooing themselves about EVERYTHING
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Unpleasant behaviour from betfair this morning. Trump has shortened to 1.87. Does anyone know why? I can't see any new polls to justify it.

    The American election involve a large quantity of partisan thinking. In it's most extreme form.

    We have seen, many times in the past, people believing that odds mean something beyond how much money has been put on the *belief* that something will happen. That betting on Their Candidate somehow effects the real world.

    Suckers in a market are a valuable resource.
    Ok so nothing in particular then. Good.
    A single whale is distorting the Pennsylvania position on Polymarket. Rumour is it's Musk

    https://nitter.poast.org/Domahhhh/status/1843320398735106155#m
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Unpleasant behaviour from betfair this morning. Trump has shortened to 1.87. Does anyone know why? I can't see any new polls to justify it.

    The American election involve a large quantity of partisan thinking. In it's most extreme form.

    We have seen, many times in the past, people believing that odds mean something beyond how much money has been put on the *belief* that something will happen. That betting on Their Candidate somehow effects the real world.

    Suckers in a market are a valuable resource.
    Ok so nothing in particular then. Good.
    A single whale is distorting the Pennsylvania position on Polymarket. Rumour is it's Musk

    https://nitter.poast.org/Domahhhh/status/1843320398735106155#m
    I love Elon
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    FPT:

    It's worth rewatching Kemi's TED talk when she was still Kemi Adegoke and before she was an MP to get a sense of where she's coming from:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1ulBcFCt-E

    Cookie said:

    This is quite revealing. My opinion of her has improved. Worth a wider audience than the midnight slot here gets!

    Hang on, her experience of UK education was attending an FE college from the age of 16, before going on to university.

    Applying that, as she seems to do, to generalise about the UK education system, is doing (from a very different perspective) what Gove did at Education based on his own childhood prejudices.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Unpleasant behaviour from betfair this morning. Trump has shortened to 1.87. Does anyone know why? I can't see any new polls to justify it.

    The American election involve a large quantity of partisan thinking. In it's most extreme form.

    We have seen, many times in the past, people believing that odds mean something beyond how much money has been put on the *belief* that something will happen. That betting on Their Candidate somehow effects the real world.

    Suckers in a market are a valuable resource.
    Ok so nothing in particular then. Good.
    A single whale is distorting the Pennsylvania position on Polymarket. Rumour is it's Musk

    https://nitter.poast.org/Domahhhh/status/1843320398735106155#m
    I love Elon
    That's a new category on Pornhub
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,122

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    Ed Davey in particular will be delighted. I can’t see how either of these two help bring back the blue wall - and given the number of seats, reversing their losses there is the only road back to power for the Tories.
    This is overplayed IMHO. The reason the Tories lost in 2024 was because of a lack of competence. I am not convinced by the argument that their positioning, per se, was the cause - more the fact that their delivery was atrocious.
    It wasn´t just competence. The alienation of the strivers and achievers from the Tory Party was also because of the poisonous and unpleasant rhetoric spewing out from the wreckage. The C2s went for Reform despite it, the ABs broke for the Lib Dems in precisely the places that hurt the Tories the most, because of it.

    The Conservative Party really is on notice. They look increasingly like losers and weirdos and that is the way they have been acting for quite some time. No party has a right to immortality and taking your core vote for granted is a surefire way to keep losing.

    The wealthy and educated will not support a party that, at best, has ignored them, at worst has attacked them.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,720

    People are focussing on the 4000mph winds set to batter the UK, causing total destruction of all life and property.

    But the really worrying thing is they are meant to be north easterly winds, so there's a real risk of some sleet as well.

    On the plus side,we can finally see WIthernsea slip into the North Sea...
    Its been shored up with some Norwegian boulders at great expense. Not entirely sure why.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,807
    kinabalu said:

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    Jenrick is surely the more radical candidate? Eg he's said he's had enough of European human rights whereas Badenoch is more ambivalent and it's possible she'll tolerate at least some of them.
    I wouldn't put it that way, but yes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    edited October 10
    Literally the best thing about Geneva is its public transport system. Impeccable synchronising of bus, tram, train, ferry. Predictable down to the second

    It’s so reliable google maps can tell me “your tram is arriving in 1 minute” and it invariably does

    We need a tram system in 20 UK cities
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,220
    The Guardian doing what it does:

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2024/oct/09/one-day-in-october-review-hamas-terror-attack-survivors-channel-4

    If you want to understand why Hamas murdered civilians, though, One Day in October won’t help. Indeed, it does a good job of demonising Gazans, first as testosterone-crazed Hamas killers, later as shameless civilian looters, asset-stripping the kibbutz while bodies lay in the street and the terrified living hid...

    Despite such evident evil, I am reminded of Cy Endfield’s film Zulu, with its nameless hordes of African warriors pitted against British protagonists with whom we were encouraged to identify. TV and cinematic narratives often work as othering machines in this way. At its worst, One Day in October, if unwittingly, follows the same pattern.


    David Baddiel has it right:

    https://x.com/Baddiel/status/1844310153878729045

    It's revealing. Because the obvious thing to say is not that the documentary demonises Hamas - it simply shows Hamas, through their own audio and footage - but that the documentary makes uncomfortable viewing for those who wish to believe that Hamas represents the Palestinians, both their suffering and their political purpose, rather than being inspired by Jew-hatred and violcence. So the conclusion you have to come to is that the One Day In October was uncomfortable for the reviewer, perhaps for The Guardian, and rather than own that, the review chose to blame the film for that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Unpleasant behaviour from betfair this morning. Trump has shortened to 1.87. Does anyone know why? I can't see any new polls to justify it.

    The American election involve a large quantity of partisan thinking. In it's most extreme form.

    We have seen, many times in the past, people believing that odds mean something beyond how much money has been put on the *belief* that something will happen. That betting on Their Candidate somehow effects the real world.

    Suckers in a market are a valuable resource.
    Ok so nothing in particular then. Good.
    A single whale is distorting the Pennsylvania position on Polymarket. Rumour is it's Musk

    https://nitter.poast.org/Domahhhh/status/1843320398735106155#m
    I love Elon
    That's a new category on Pornhub
    Anagram action ?
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 812
    kinabalu said:

    Unpleasant behaviour from betfair this morning. Trump has shortened to 1.87. Does anyone know why? I can't see any new polls to justify it.

    My theory is anticipation of poor (or poorly received) fed response to hurricaines
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399

    kinabalu said:

    Unpleasant behaviour from betfair this morning. Trump has shortened to 1.87. Does anyone know why? I can't see any new polls to justify it.

    Probably Musk having fun. What's the point of being a quadrillionaire if you can't mess with markets?
    There are rumours of a GOP partisan plunging in US prediction markets. I doubt Elon has a Betfair account but probably someone is arbing between Betfair and the land of the free.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Just saw an old lady openly smoking crystal meth on the street in Geneva. 20 minutes from CERN by a handy tram
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    BBC Question Time comes from Pennsylvania at 9 o'clock tonight.

    US Election Special
    Question Time2024
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  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    Leon said:

    Just saw an old lady openly smoking crystal meth on the street in Geneva. 20 minutes from CERN by a handy tram

    Probably one of the CERN senior researchers. You need to be off your head to (believe you can) make sense of the Standard Model.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,896

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    I dislike Jenrick for the corruption on planning applications, and the performative heartlessness of painting over cartoon characters to be tough on asylum-seeking children. But put words into my mouth to create a strawman if it makes you feel better.
    Thanks, I will.

    I think you'd have fallen over yourself to forget any past indescretions on Jenrick's part if his politics was aligned with yours, and he was campaigning to integrate more closely with Europe rather than leaving the ECHR. Just like everyone forgot that Cleverly was a gaffe machine with no Ministerial achievements and a dangerous attitude to China that culminated in gaily signing over British sovereign territory to a China-aligned state, then idiotically trying to hammer Labour over it.

    Just like people who claim to have been disgusted by Boris' venal approach to Government, but don't give a crap when SKS's bunch are up to the same thing.
    Why bother to read anyone's comments when you're going to argue against made-up opinions in your head?

    I've been honest in the past about saying that Jenrick is probably the most likely to turn less extreme Tory voters into more extreme Reform voters - healing the split on the right.

    Generally I try to make it clear when I'm talking about my personal preferences and when I'm talking about something objectively, but just respond to something made-up about what I've said instead.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    edited October 10
    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Just saw an old lady openly smoking crystal meth on the street in Geneva. 20 minutes from CERN by a handy tram

    Probably one of the CERN senior researchers. You need to be off your head to (believe you can) make sense of the Standard Model.
    lol. She probably does great work on string theory

    Geneva is really weird. The overwhelming sense is of a pressingly dull drabness, but with money. Like a kind of opulent Novosibirsk

    And I’ve been to Novosibirsk
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405

    kinabalu said:

    Unpleasant behaviour from betfair this morning. Trump has shortened to 1.87. Does anyone know why? I can't see any new polls to justify it.

    Probably Musk having fun. What's the point of being a quadrillionaire if you can't mess with markets?
    There are rumours of a GOP partisan plunging in US prediction markets. I doubt Elon has a Betfair account but probably someone is arbing between Betfair and the land of the free.
    You'd expect broad correlation between Betfair and Polymarket.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    edited October 10
    Been out in meetings all morning and just seen the cricket score. Wow, well done England!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 812

    kinabalu said:

    Unpleasant behaviour from betfair this morning. Trump has shortened to 1.87. Does anyone know why? I can't see any new polls to justify it.

    Probably Musk having fun. What's the point of being a quadrillionaire if you can't mess with markets?
    There are rumours of a GOP partisan plunging in US prediction markets. I doubt Elon has a Betfair account but probably someone is arbing between Betfair and the land of the free.
    It's not "rumours". It's a fact. Well at least that there is a user piling in. Who they might be otoh...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,422
    kyf_100 said:

    kinabalu said:

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    Jenrick is surely the more radical candidate? Eg he's said he's had enough of European human rights whereas Badenoch is more ambivalent and it's possible she'll tolerate at least some of them.
    My post from yesterday got a bit lost as it was ten minutes before Cleverley got knocked out, but for those who want more background on Jenrick other than the obvious (mural-painting, Desmond-loving) this takedown of Jenrick's time as Housing Secretary by journalist Peter Apps is worth a read -

    https://peteapps.substack.com/p/robert-jenrick-was-the-worst-housing

    In it he describes Jenrick as both callous and uncaring, as well as ineffective, delivering catastrophe after catastrophe during his tenure, delivering plans described as 'unworkable as well as politically unpalatable'. Later, after losing his job, he sought to blame the Treasury for his failures, avoiding any sort of accountability.

    Apps goes on to note that no other housing minister attracted such a personal level of ire, with Brokenshire and Javid there was 'anger with the whole system' but with Jenrick 'it was personal'.

    As someone put it the other day, if you could turn this guy into an aerosol (no snickering at the back, please), you could put him in a can and market him as a literal voter-repellent.

    The Tories elect him at their peril.
    But he's now up against Badenoch, and many of the same things can be said about her: ineffective as a minister, blamed others, sought to blame civil servants all the time.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    kyf_100 said:

    kinabalu said:

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    Jenrick is surely the more radical candidate? Eg he's said he's had enough of European human rights whereas Badenoch is more ambivalent and it's possible she'll tolerate at least some of them.
    My post from yesterday got a bit lost as it was ten minutes before Cleverley got knocked out, but for those who want more background on Jenrick other than the obvious (mural-painting, Desmond-loving) this takedown of Jenrick's time as Housing Secretary by journalist Peter Apps is worth a read -

    https://peteapps.substack.com/p/robert-jenrick-was-the-worst-housing

    In it he describes Jenrick as both callous and uncaring, as well as ineffective, delivering catastrophe after catastrophe during his tenure, delivering plans described as 'unworkable as well as politically unpalatable'. Later, after losing his job, he sought to blame the Treasury for his failures, avoiding any sort of accountability.

    Apps goes on to note that no other housing minister attracted such a personal level of ire, with Brokenshire and Javid there was 'anger with the whole system' but with Jenrick 'it was personal'.

    As someone put it the other day, if you could turn this guy into an aerosol (no snickering at the back, please), you could put him in a can and market him as a literal voter-repellent.

    The Tories elect him at their peril.
    We need a word for the Cleverly event, but might first need to know whether it was conspiracy (some of Cleverly's previous round votes were from other candidate's supporters, in a deliberate ploy) or simple cock-up (Cleverly supporters believed he was safe and they could pick the opponent).

    If the latter, we could say they Trussed up, I guess. If the former, maybe the term is he got royally Jenricked. Or, possibly, Bade-knocked?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,807

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    I dislike Jenrick for the corruption on planning applications, and the performative heartlessness of painting over cartoon characters to be tough on asylum-seeking children. But put words into my mouth to create a strawman if it makes you feel better.
    Thanks, I will.

    I think you'd have fallen over yourself to forget any past indescretions on Jenrick's part if his politics was aligned with yours, and he was campaigning to integrate more closely with Europe rather than leaving the ECHR. Just like everyone forgot that Cleverly was a gaffe machine with no Ministerial achievements and a dangerous attitude to China that culminated in gaily signing over British sovereign territory to a China-aligned state, then idiotically trying to hammer Labour over it.

    Just like people who claim to have been disgusted by Boris' venal approach to Government, but don't give a crap when SKS's bunch are up to the same thing.
    Why bother to read anyone's comments when you're going to argue against made-up opinions in your head?

    I've been honest in the past about saying that Jenrick is probably the most likely to turn less extreme Tory voters into more extreme Reform voters - healing the split on the right.

    Generally I try to make it clear when I'm talking about my personal preferences and when I'm talking about something objectively, but just respond to something made-up about what I've said instead.
    I am struggling to see exactly how I have traduced you given your acknowledged views on the matter, but I do apologise - it was not my intention to upset.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496

    kyf_100 said:

    kinabalu said:

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    Jenrick is surely the more radical candidate? Eg he's said he's had enough of European human rights whereas Badenoch is more ambivalent and it's possible she'll tolerate at least some of them.
    My post from yesterday got a bit lost as it was ten minutes before Cleverley got knocked out, but for those who want more background on Jenrick other than the obvious (mural-painting, Desmond-loving) this takedown of Jenrick's time as Housing Secretary by journalist Peter Apps is worth a read -

    https://peteapps.substack.com/p/robert-jenrick-was-the-worst-housing

    In it he describes Jenrick as both callous and uncaring, as well as ineffective, delivering catastrophe after catastrophe during his tenure, delivering plans described as 'unworkable as well as politically unpalatable'. Later, after losing his job, he sought to blame the Treasury for his failures, avoiding any sort of accountability.

    Apps goes on to note that no other housing minister attracted such a personal level of ire, with Brokenshire and Javid there was 'anger with the whole system' but with Jenrick 'it was personal'.

    As someone put it the other day, if you could turn this guy into an aerosol (no snickering at the back, please), you could put him in a can and market him as a literal voter-repellent.

    The Tories elect him at their peril.
    But he's now up against Badenoch, and many of the same things can be said about her: ineffective as a minister, blamed others, sought to blame civil servants all the time.
    Yes. The rumours about Badenoch say she is disliked within Whitehall

    However this may be true of any right wing minister who has a genuinely right wing agenda
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832

    kyf_100 said:

    kinabalu said:

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    Jenrick is surely the more radical candidate? Eg he's said he's had enough of European human rights whereas Badenoch is more ambivalent and it's possible she'll tolerate at least some of them.
    My post from yesterday got a bit lost as it was ten minutes before Cleverley got knocked out, but for those who want more background on Jenrick other than the obvious (mural-painting, Desmond-loving) this takedown of Jenrick's time as Housing Secretary by journalist Peter Apps is worth a read -

    https://peteapps.substack.com/p/robert-jenrick-was-the-worst-housing

    In it he describes Jenrick as both callous and uncaring, as well as ineffective, delivering catastrophe after catastrophe during his tenure, delivering plans described as 'unworkable as well as politically unpalatable'. Later, after losing his job, he sought to blame the Treasury for his failures, avoiding any sort of accountability.

    Apps goes on to note that no other housing minister attracted such a personal level of ire, with Brokenshire and Javid there was 'anger with the whole system' but with Jenrick 'it was personal'.

    As someone put it the other day, if you could turn this guy into an aerosol (no snickering at the back, please), you could put him in a can and market him as a literal voter-repellent.

    The Tories elect him at their peril.
    But he's now up against Badenoch, and many of the same things can be said about her: ineffective as a minister, blamed others, sought to blame civil servants all the time.
    Yes - on actually being effective at the job, it's hard to pick. Badenoch has perhaps more potential to completely implode in interesting ways, but maybe a bit more upside potential too (although she's been hiding her talents well, if so).

    I'd not vote for either, but in a forced choice, I'd probably keep the "vote for the crook not the facsist" idea from the 2002 French presidential election in mind, but - noting that there is no fascist on offer - vote against the crook.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kinabalu said:

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    Jenrick is surely the more radical candidate? Eg he's said he's had enough of European human rights whereas Badenoch is more ambivalent and it's possible she'll tolerate at least some of them.
    My post from yesterday got a bit lost as it was ten minutes before Cleverley got knocked out, but for those who want more background on Jenrick other than the obvious (mural-painting, Desmond-loving) this takedown of Jenrick's time as Housing Secretary by journalist Peter Apps is worth a read -

    https://peteapps.substack.com/p/robert-jenrick-was-the-worst-housing

    In it he describes Jenrick as both callous and uncaring, as well as ineffective, delivering catastrophe after catastrophe during his tenure, delivering plans described as 'unworkable as well as politically unpalatable'. Later, after losing his job, he sought to blame the Treasury for his failures, avoiding any sort of accountability.

    Apps goes on to note that no other housing minister attracted such a personal level of ire, with Brokenshire and Javid there was 'anger with the whole system' but with Jenrick 'it was personal'.

    As someone put it the other day, if you could turn this guy into an aerosol (no snickering at the back, please), you could put him in a can and market him as a literal voter-repellent.

    The Tories elect him at their peril.
    But he's now up against Badenoch, and many of the same things can be said about her: ineffective as a minister, blamed others, sought to blame civil servants all the time.
    Yes. The rumours about Badenoch say she is disliked within Whitehall

    However this may be true of any right wing minister who has a genuinely right wing agenda
    That’s probably the best reason to vote for her!

    Civil servants are supposed to enact the minister’s agenda and what Parliament passes, not constantly say no and push back because they don’t like the agenda.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Leon said:

    Literally the best thing about Geneva is its public transport system. Impeccable synchronising of bus, tram, train, ferry. Predictable down to the second

    It’s so reliable google maps can tell me “your tram is arriving in 1 minute” and it invariably does

    We need a tram system in 20 UK cities

    Most major UK cities already have trams/undergrounds:

    • London (underground)
    • Newcastle (underground)
    • Glasgow (underground)
    • Nottingham (tram)
    • Sheffield (tram)
    • Manchester (tram)
    • Birmingham (tram)
    • Edinburgh (tram)

    (• Liverpool (metro, sort of – although it's really just a local railway))

    Is there any reason why Bristol and Leeds don't have anything? They are the only two of the eight 'core cities' of England without rapid transit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    tlg86 said:

    The Guardian doing what it does:

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2024/oct/09/one-day-in-october-review-hamas-terror-attack-survivors-channel-4

    If you want to understand why Hamas murdered civilians, though, One Day in October won’t help. Indeed, it does a good job of demonising Gazans, first as testosterone-crazed Hamas killers, later as shameless civilian looters, asset-stripping the kibbutz while bodies lay in the street and the terrified living hid...

    Despite such evident evil, I am reminded of Cy Endfield’s film Zulu, with its nameless hordes of African warriors pitted against British protagonists with whom we were encouraged to identify. TV and cinematic narratives often work as othering machines in this way. At its worst, One Day in October, if unwittingly, follows the same pattern.


    David Baddiel has it right:

    https://x.com/Baddiel/status/1844310153878729045

    It's revealing. Because the obvious thing to say is not that the documentary demonises Hamas - it simply shows Hamas, through their own audio and footage - but that the documentary makes uncomfortable viewing for those who wish to believe that Hamas represents the Palestinians, both their suffering and their political purpose, rather than being inspired by Jew-hatred and violcence. So the conclusion you have to come to is that the One Day In October was uncomfortable for the reviewer, perhaps for The Guardian, and rather than own that, the review chose to blame the film for that.

    I recall as similar sounding review about an American film shot on Okinawa, during WWII.

    Apparently, showing the actual behaviour of Japanese soldiers, without enough "context", was demonising them.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Sandpit said:

    Been out in meetings all morning and just seen the cricket score. Wow, well done England!

    Insane scenes. We could probably have made 1,000...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,437
    The right-wing media are making a bit of an ass of themselves over Starmer and his uncle.

    Yes, some of the resultant memes are funny. But saying 'torpedoed' rather than 'bombed' is an easy misspeak to make. It's hardly major in the context, and I wouldn't classify it as a lie. His uncle served, and was on a ship that suffered damage in battle.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    kinabalu said:

    Unpleasant behaviour from betfair this morning. Trump has shortened to 1.87. Does anyone know why? I can't see any new polls to justify it.

    Probably Musk having fun. What's the point of being a quadrillionaire if you can't mess with markets?
    There are rumours of a GOP partisan plunging in US prediction markets. I doubt Elon has a Betfair account but probably someone is arbing between Betfair and the land of the free.
    William Glenn?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,585
    edited October 10

    Leon said:

    Literally the best thing about Geneva is its public transport system. Impeccable synchronising of bus, tram, train, ferry. Predictable down to the second

    It’s so reliable google maps can tell me “your tram is arriving in 1 minute” and it invariably does

    We need a tram system in 20 UK cities

    Most major UK cities already have trams/undergrounds:

    • London (underground)
    • Newcastle (underground)
    • Glasgow (underground)
    • Nottingham (tram)
    • Sheffield (tram)
    • Manchester (tram)
    • Birmingham (tram)
    • Edinburgh (tram)

    (• Liverpool (metro, sort of – although it's really just a local railway))

    Is there any reason why Bristol and Leeds don't have anything? They are the only two of the eight 'core cities' of England without rapid transit.
    Outside of London those systems are token at best.

    I’m currently in Antalya and that has a better tram system than anywheee on the list outside of London
  • Andy_JS said:
    My understanding is that this might hurt "grassroots" tennis, in that people will be less keen to volunteer as officials in local tennis clubs because of this removal of a "perk".
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    ....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kinabalu said:

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    Jenrick is surely the more radical candidate? Eg he's said he's had enough of European human rights whereas Badenoch is more ambivalent and it's possible she'll tolerate at least some of them.
    My post from yesterday got a bit lost as it was ten minutes before Cleverley got knocked out, but for those who want more background on Jenrick other than the obvious (mural-painting, Desmond-loving) this takedown of Jenrick's time as Housing Secretary by journalist Peter Apps is worth a read -

    https://peteapps.substack.com/p/robert-jenrick-was-the-worst-housing

    In it he describes Jenrick as both callous and uncaring, as well as ineffective, delivering catastrophe after catastrophe during his tenure, delivering plans described as 'unworkable as well as politically unpalatable'. Later, after losing his job, he sought to blame the Treasury for his failures, avoiding any sort of accountability.

    Apps goes on to note that no other housing minister attracted such a personal level of ire, with Brokenshire and Javid there was 'anger with the whole system' but with Jenrick 'it was personal'.

    As someone put it the other day, if you could turn this guy into an aerosol (no snickering at the back, please), you could put him in a can and market him as a literal voter-repellent.

    The Tories elect him at their peril.
    But he's now up against Badenoch, and many of the same things can be said about her: ineffective as a minister, blamed others, sought to blame civil servants all the time.
    Yes. The rumours about Badenoch say she is disliked within Whitehall

    However this may be true of any right wing minister who has a genuinely right wing agenda
    That’s probably the best reason to vote for her!

    Civil servants are supposed to enact the minister’s agenda and what Parliament passes, not constantly say no and push back because they don’t like the agenda.
    Except she doesn't have a policy agenda.

    She had none as a minister, and still doesn't have anything substantive. What did you have in mind that the Civil Service were pushing back on ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405

    Sandpit said:

    Been out in meetings all morning and just seen the cricket score. Wow, well done England!

    Insane scenes. We could probably have made 1,000...
    Think 1000 would have been a big ask 7 down. 950 tops.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632
    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Unpleasant behaviour from betfair this morning. Trump has shortened to 1.87. Does anyone know why? I can't see any new polls to justify it.

    The American election involve a large quantity of partisan thinking. In it's most extreme form.

    We have seen, many times in the past, people believing that odds mean something beyond how much money has been put on the *belief* that something will happen. That betting on Their Candidate somehow effects the real world.

    Suckers in a market are a valuable resource.
    Ok so nothing in particular then. Good.
    A single whale is distorting the Pennsylvania position on Polymarket. Rumour is it's Musk

    https://nitter.poast.org/Domahhhh/status/1843320398735106155#m
    However PA is still a 50/50 on betfair.
  • The elephant is in the room.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,399
    Selebian said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kinabalu said:

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    Jenrick is surely the more radical candidate? Eg he's said he's had enough of European human rights whereas Badenoch is more ambivalent and it's possible she'll tolerate at least some of them.
    My post from yesterday got a bit lost as it was ten minutes before Cleverley got knocked out, but for those who want more background on Jenrick other than the obvious (mural-painting, Desmond-loving) this takedown of Jenrick's time as Housing Secretary by journalist Peter Apps is worth a read -

    https://peteapps.substack.com/p/robert-jenrick-was-the-worst-housing

    In it he describes Jenrick as both callous and uncaring, as well as ineffective, delivering catastrophe after catastrophe during his tenure, delivering plans described as 'unworkable as well as politically unpalatable'. Later, after losing his job, he sought to blame the Treasury for his failures, avoiding any sort of accountability.

    Apps goes on to note that no other housing minister attracted such a personal level of ire, with Brokenshire and Javid there was 'anger with the whole system' but with Jenrick 'it was personal'.

    As someone put it the other day, if you could turn this guy into an aerosol (no snickering at the back, please), you could put him in a can and market him as a literal voter-repellent.

    The Tories elect him at their peril.
    We need a word for the Cleverly event, but might first need to know whether it was conspiracy (some of Cleverly's previous round votes were from other candidate's supporters, in a deliberate ploy) or simple cock-up (Cleverly supporters believed he was safe and they could pick the opponent).

    If the latter, we could say they Trussed up, I guess. If the former, maybe the term is he got royally Jenricked. Or, possibly, Bade-knocked?
    Fingers are being pointed everywhere, including at Baron Shapps of Spreadsheetshire, who is said to have form for vote-lending and who ran Team Cleverly. It might be relevant that Shapps lost his own seat last July so may have been out of touch with developments on the ground.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505

    The right-wing media are making a bit of an ass of themselves over Starmer and his uncle.

    Yes, some of the resultant memes are funny. But saying 'torpedoed' rather than 'bombed' is an easy misspeak to make. It's hardly major in the context, and I wouldn't classify it as a lie. His uncle served, and was on a ship that suffered damage in battle.

    Starmer is having a bit of an unfortunate run of misspeaking, calling Sunak PM repeatedly, releasing the sausages...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972

    kinabalu said:

    Unpleasant behaviour from betfair this morning. Trump has shortened to 1.87. Does anyone know why? I can't see any new polls to justify it.

    Probably Musk having fun. What's the point of being a quadrillionaire if you can't mess with markets?
    There are rumours of a GOP partisan plunging in US prediction markets. I doubt Elon has a Betfair account but probably someone is arbing between Betfair and the land of the free.
    I can think of at least two members of this forum who have both UK and US addresses and credit cards. There’s usually loads of arb opportunities between Betfair and PredictIt for most of the last month of the US election cycle. Need to check rules carefully though, and follow exchange rates to avoid losing out.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    The right-wing media are making a bit of an ass of themselves over Starmer and his uncle.

    Yes, some of the resultant memes are funny. But saying 'torpedoed' rather than 'bombed' is an easy misspeak to make. It's hardly major in the context, and I wouldn't classify it as a lie. His uncle served, and was on a ship that suffered damage in battle.

    They hate Labour being in power. It's not how things are meant to be.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505

    Selebian said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kinabalu said:

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    Jenrick is surely the more radical candidate? Eg he's said he's had enough of European human rights whereas Badenoch is more ambivalent and it's possible she'll tolerate at least some of them.
    My post from yesterday got a bit lost as it was ten minutes before Cleverley got knocked out, but for those who want more background on Jenrick other than the obvious (mural-painting, Desmond-loving) this takedown of Jenrick's time as Housing Secretary by journalist Peter Apps is worth a read -

    https://peteapps.substack.com/p/robert-jenrick-was-the-worst-housing

    In it he describes Jenrick as both callous and uncaring, as well as ineffective, delivering catastrophe after catastrophe during his tenure, delivering plans described as 'unworkable as well as politically unpalatable'. Later, after losing his job, he sought to blame the Treasury for his failures, avoiding any sort of accountability.

    Apps goes on to note that no other housing minister attracted such a personal level of ire, with Brokenshire and Javid there was 'anger with the whole system' but with Jenrick 'it was personal'.

    As someone put it the other day, if you could turn this guy into an aerosol (no snickering at the back, please), you could put him in a can and market him as a literal voter-repellent.

    The Tories elect him at their peril.
    We need a word for the Cleverly event, but might first need to know whether it was conspiracy (some of Cleverly's previous round votes were from other candidate's supporters, in a deliberate ploy) or simple cock-up (Cleverly supporters believed he was safe and they could pick the opponent).

    If the latter, we could say they Trussed up, I guess. If the former, maybe the term is he got royally Jenricked. Or, possibly, Bade-knocked?
    Fingers are being pointed everywhere, including at Baron Shapps of Spreadsheetshire, who is said to have form for vote-lending and who ran Team Cleverly. It might be relevant that Shapps lost his own seat last July so may have been out of touch with developments on the ground.
    I certainly wouldn't be putting Shapps in charge of anything....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,437
    I just did the yearly check of my radiators (*) and found a patch of rust on one that I don't like the look of. I've had one leak in the past, so my friendly local plumber's now booked in to replace it.

    Preventative maintenance. :)

    (*) Am I the only person to do this?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    I thought this was an absolutely certain draw, but now looking like England will win.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Unpleasant behaviour from betfair this morning. Trump has shortened to 1.87. Does anyone know why? I can't see any new polls to justify it.

    Probably Musk having fun. What's the point of being a quadrillionaire if you can't mess with markets?
    There are rumours of a GOP partisan plunging in US prediction markets. I doubt Elon has a Betfair account but probably someone is arbing between Betfair and the land of the free.
    William Glenn?
    :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505

    I thought this was an absolutely certain draw, but now looking like England will win.

    Steady on....
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kinabalu said:

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    Jenrick is surely the more radical candidate? Eg he's said he's had enough of European human rights whereas Badenoch is more ambivalent and it's possible she'll tolerate at least some of them.
    My post from yesterday got a bit lost as it was ten minutes before Cleverley got knocked out, but for those who want more background on Jenrick other than the obvious (mural-painting, Desmond-loving) this takedown of Jenrick's time as Housing Secretary by journalist Peter Apps is worth a read -

    https://peteapps.substack.com/p/robert-jenrick-was-the-worst-housing

    In it he describes Jenrick as both callous and uncaring, as well as ineffective, delivering catastrophe after catastrophe during his tenure, delivering plans described as 'unworkable as well as politically unpalatable'. Later, after losing his job, he sought to blame the Treasury for his failures, avoiding any sort of accountability.

    Apps goes on to note that no other housing minister attracted such a personal level of ire, with Brokenshire and Javid there was 'anger with the whole system' but with Jenrick 'it was personal'.

    As someone put it the other day, if you could turn this guy into an aerosol (no snickering at the back, please), you could put him in a can and market him as a literal voter-repellent.

    The Tories elect him at their peril.
    But he's now up against Badenoch, and many of the same things can be said about her: ineffective as a minister, blamed others, sought to blame civil servants all the time.
    Yes. The rumours about Badenoch say she is disliked within Whitehall

    However this may be true of any right wing minister who has a genuinely right wing agenda
    As we are seeing with Starmer, it is not so much a x-wing agenda (ha) that is the problem. But having an agenda of change.

    The Blob exists. It is not a conspiracy (much like the NU10K) just a combination of

    1) All large organisations have a Way Things Are Done Here.
    2) People within the organisation have built their careers, promotions, friendships, even beliefs around The Way Things Are Done Here.
    3) This means that any attempt to change The Way Things Are Done Here meets immediate resistance on many fronts.
    Tangential, but on organisations and change...

    When I moved to my present job, I was surprised to discover they still had a paper leave system - everyone was given an annual leave card at the start of the year and, notionally, leave was entered and signed off by the line manager (reality - we 'booked' leave by popping it in a calendar shared with line manage, the paper bit was filled in at year end).

    Anyway, we got a new shiny online system this year - leave booked and approved online and it keeps an automatic tally of remaining days. We're also permitted to carry over up to 5 days of leave between years - obviously that could easily be automated in such a system - new leave entitlement = standard entitlement + carried days unless carried days > 5 in which case set carried days = 5. Had a department-wide email a few days back from some poor administrator asking us all (several hundred people) to reply with how many days of leave we were carrying over as the admin has to manually adjust everyone's leave entitlement for the next leave year in the system based on this.

    The Uni actually paid for this system too, presumably, which has done nothing except pretty much replicate the paper system, with all it's limitations, online.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,220
    I bet no one has ever won a test in four days having scored 800.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,437
    kinabalu said:

    The right-wing media are making a bit of an ass of themselves over Starmer and his uncle.

    Yes, some of the resultant memes are funny. But saying 'torpedoed' rather than 'bombed' is an easy misspeak to make. It's hardly major in the context, and I wouldn't classify it as a lie. His uncle served, and was on a ship that suffered damage in battle.

    They hate Labour being in power. It's not how things are meant to be.
    It's not as though left-wing rags went easy on Tory governments or MPs, is it?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    kinabalu said:

    The right-wing media are making a bit of an ass of themselves over Starmer and his uncle.

    Yes, some of the resultant memes are funny. But saying 'torpedoed' rather than 'bombed' is an easy misspeak to make. It's hardly major in the context, and I wouldn't classify it as a lie. His uncle served, and was on a ship that suffered damage in battle.

    They hate Labour being in power. It's not how things are meant to be.
    They have been fapping themselves silly over trivial nonsense since the end of the summer recess. Many will be looking forward to the budget and serious politics again. There was an embarrassing, cringeworthy interlude whereby Sam Coates interrupted Sophie's otherwise excellent show last night –– to reveal that... wait for it... Ed Balls had got some free Swiftie tickets.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited October 10
    tlg86 said:

    I bet no one has ever won a test in four days having scored 800.

    Maybe the Indian bookmarkers need the lines to have a bit of a shift around to get some more interest in action being put on....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Pakistan losing the plot here.
    Awful shot.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379
    AI summary of LOTO Badenoch's TED talk when 30

    "...The speaker's political journey was driven by anger over educational inequities and the portrayal of Africa in international development. Growing up in Nigeria, they faced high academic expectations, but upon moving to the UK, encountered low expectations from teachers for minority students, which hindered their aspirations to attend Oxford. This led them to focus on engineering while remaining committed to addressing educational disparities.

    The speaker criticized the patronizing attitudes in international development, particularly Western celebrities speaking for Africans without genuine engagement. This frustration motivated their entry into politics to influence Sub-Saharan Africa policy after joining the Conservative Party. Despite initial doubts about the party's elitism, they found opportunities to contribute meaningfully to policy discussions.

    Throughout their journey, the speaker faced skepticism about their political involvement, reflecting broader societal grievances. A personal experience in a Dulwich West campaign highlighted the challenges Conservative candidates face in Labour-dominated areas.

    Key insights include the need to critically evaluate advice, recognizing that well-meaning guidance can hinder progress. The speaker reevaluated personal relationships, identifying true allies as those who prioritize individual goals over political beliefs. They emphasize the importance of engaging with diverse political perspectives and avoiding assumptions about support.

    Ultimately, the speaker advocates for individuals to voice their own experiences, especially in discussions affecting marginalized communities, promoting empowerment and active participation in societal change..."


    Input: YouTube transcript from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1ulBcFCt-E
    Summarizer; https://ahrefs.com/writing-tools/summarizer
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    What in Zeus's arsehole is going on in Multan?

    This could be a Test victory for the ages.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405
    edited October 10

    I just did the yearly check of my radiators (*) and found a patch of rust on one that I don't like the look of. I've had one leak in the past, so my friendly local plumber's now booked in to replace it.

    Preventative maintenance. :)

    (*) Am I the only person to do this?

    We had one that was cold at the bottom and got a plumber out to desludge it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    The right-wing media are making a bit of an ass of themselves over Starmer and his uncle.

    Yes, some of the resultant memes are funny. But saying 'torpedoed' rather than 'bombed' is an easy misspeak to make. It's hardly major in the context, and I wouldn't classify it as a lie. His uncle served, and was on a ship that suffered damage in battle.

    Starmer is having a bit of an unfortunate run of misspeaking, calling Sunak PM repeatedly, releasing the sausages...
    So what?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Been out in meetings all morning and just seen the cricket score. Wow, well done England!

    Insane scenes. We could probably have made 1,000...
    Think 1000 would have been a big ask 7 down. 950 tops.
    :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited October 10

    The right-wing media are making a bit of an ass of themselves over Starmer and his uncle.

    Yes, some of the resultant memes are funny. But saying 'torpedoed' rather than 'bombed' is an easy misspeak to make. It's hardly major in the context, and I wouldn't classify it as a lie. His uncle served, and was on a ship that suffered damage in battle.

    Starmer is having a bit of an unfortunate run of misspeaking, calling Sunak PM repeatedly, releasing the sausages...
    So what?
    Just saying he has is an unfortunate run where he has a number of gaffes in short succession. You are very defensive.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Literally the best thing about Geneva is its public transport system. Impeccable synchronising of bus, tram, train, ferry. Predictable down to the second

    It’s so reliable google maps can tell me “your tram is arriving in 1 minute” and it invariably does

    We need a tram system in 20 UK cities

    Most major UK cities already have trams/undergrounds:

    • London (underground)
    • Newcastle (underground)
    • Glasgow (underground)
    • Nottingham (tram)
    • Sheffield (tram)
    • Manchester (tram)
    • Birmingham (tram)
    • Edinburgh (tram)

    (• Liverpool (metro, sort of – although it's really just a local railway))

    Is there any reason why Bristol and Leeds don't have anything? They are the only two of the eight 'core cities' of England without rapid transit.
    Outside of London those systems are token at best.

    I’m currently in Antalya and that has a better tram system than anywheee on the list outside of London
    The Manchester and Nottingham networks are not 'token'. They are not as extensive (yet) as other cities but token is stretching a point.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972

    Andy_JS said:
    My understanding is that this might hurt "grassroots" tennis, in that people will be less keen to volunteer as officials in local tennis clubs because of this removal of a "perk".
    That’s an interesting take.

    Many sports rely on huge armies of volunteers to run events on a regular basis, and one of the attractions is indeed to attend the large international meetings in a minor role.

    One can quite imagine that people are less likely to train to be umpires at local tennis clubs, if they no longer have as much of an opportunity to get a staff pass to Wimbledon.

    For an example of a sport in which I have more knowledge, imagine if the British Grand Prix decided to have robot marshals and doctors, how much more difficult it would be to staff local motorsports venues with volunteers for the other 51 weeks of the year.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835

    I just did the yearly check of my radiators (*) and found a patch of rust on one that I don't like the look of. I've had one leak in the past, so my friendly local plumber's now booked in to replace it.

    Preventative maintenance. :)

    (*) Am I the only person to do this?

    The boiler in my rental is 22 years old. It loses pressure slowly, and I have to top it up. Can't locate a leak though...

    Passes its safety check with flying colours, though. Perhaps we replace them too soon?

    https://www.theheatinghub.co.uk/articles/boiler-lifespans
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972
    41/4 LOL.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,882
    edited October 10

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Pity me! - I’m landing at Gatwick later today and the forecast winds are 13,322mph

    That’s going to be BUMPY

    That'll be the least of your worries flying into Gatwick . The flight is the easy bit. The longest part of the journey is the service bus from the terminal to the long stay car park.

    On the upside with the prevailing wind behind you your flight will only take a couple of minutes.
    Serious question. This is @Leon - why would he drive from Camden to Gatwick and leave the vehicle for a week?

    To do it by rail the journey is approx 1hr vs 2hrs, and the cost ~£30 vs ~£200 once the car has been in the long-stay car park for a week.

    The difference would get him a Thai massage in Geneva.
    I haven't found a flight from a London airport, where driving from London (and paying for a long stay) beats even getting a cab.
    I recently flew to Belfast from Gatwick for the day and the parking was £52, which I thought was OK - I could have parked further from the terminal for less. The train would have been cheaper but driving was quicker and more reliable with an early departure and late arrival.
    Are there many trains from Belfast to London?
    You can get a sailrail ticket. Euston to Holyhead and then Dublin to Belfast after the ferry.
    It's good value.

    Dover to Dublin is <£60 off peak, and approximately £90 peak.

    TBF that off peak journey has difficult timing - it may be better to break the journey overnight somewhere London and the ferry, or you get an overnight ferry. Or not live somewhere where you have to go via London.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    The right-wing media are making a bit of an ass of themselves over Starmer and his uncle.

    Yes, some of the resultant memes are funny. But saying 'torpedoed' rather than 'bombed' is an easy misspeak to make. It's hardly major in the context, and I wouldn't classify it as a lie. His uncle served, and was on a ship that suffered damage in battle.

    Starmer is having a bit of an unfortunate run of misspeaking, calling Sunak PM repeatedly, releasing the sausages...
    So what?
    Just saying he has is an unfortunate run where he has a number of gaffes in short succession. You are very defensive.
    Who cares?
  • The right-wing media are making a bit of an ass of themselves over Starmer and his uncle.

    Yes, some of the resultant memes are funny. But saying 'torpedoed' rather than 'bombed' is an easy misspeak to make. It's hardly major in the context, and I wouldn't classify it as a lie. His uncle served, and was on a ship that suffered damage in battle.

    Starmer is having a bit of an unfortunate run of misspeaking, calling Sunak PM repeatedly, releasing the sausages...
    So what?
    Misspeaks by the First Lord of the Treasury can cause diplomatic incidents, cause the stock market to crash, Sterling to crater, and start wars.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379
    viewcode said:

    AI summary of LOTO Badenoch's TED talk when 30

    "...The speaker's political journey was driven by anger over educational inequities and the portrayal of Africa in international development. Growing up in Nigeria, they faced high academic expectations, but upon moving to the UK, encountered low expectations from teachers for minority students, which hindered their aspirations to attend Oxford. This led them to focus on engineering while remaining committed to addressing educational disparities.

    The speaker criticized the patronizing attitudes in international development, particularly Western celebrities speaking for Africans without genuine engagement. This frustration motivated their entry into politics to influence Sub-Saharan Africa policy after joining the Conservative Party. Despite initial doubts about the party's elitism, they found opportunities to contribute meaningfully to policy discussions.

    Throughout their journey, the speaker faced skepticism about their political involvement, reflecting broader societal grievances. A personal experience in a Dulwich West campaign highlighted the challenges Conservative candidates face in Labour-dominated areas.

    Key insights include the need to critically evaluate advice, recognizing that well-meaning guidance can hinder progress. The speaker reevaluated personal relationships, identifying true allies as those who prioritize individual goals over political beliefs. They emphasize the importance of engaging with diverse political perspectives and avoiding assumptions about support.

    Ultimately, the speaker advocates for individuals to voice their own experiences, especially in discussions affecting marginalized communities, promoting empowerment and active participation in societal change..."


    Input: YouTube transcript from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1ulBcFCt-E
    Summarizer; https://ahrefs.com/writing-tools/summarizer

    As for me, I was impressed by her as an individual, but her approach betrays her computer science background; tactical, methodical, problem solving, dealing with individual people, but no strategic sense, no big idea or even a collection of small ideas. I'd put her as a good manager but not a CEO, and she badly needs a theoretician, like Keith Joseph for Thatcherism or Daniel Hannan for Euroscepticism.

    However she now has a chance to perform at the highest level: let's see what she does.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,437
    carnforth said:

    I just did the yearly check of my radiators (*) and found a patch of rust on one that I don't like the look of. I've had one leak in the past, so my friendly local plumber's now booked in to replace it.

    Preventative maintenance. :)

    (*) Am I the only person to do this?

    The boiler in my rental is 22 years old. It loses pressure slowly, and I have to top it up. Can't locate a leak though...

    Passes its safety check with flying colours, though. Perhaps we replace them too soon?

    https://www.theheatinghub.co.uk/articles/boiler-lifespans
    The boiler losing pressure was the first sign that a previous radiator was going. Followed by finding a damp patch (*) underneath the radiator. I then poked my finger around in the darkness (*) and made the hole and leak much bigger.

    Having dealt with the hassle of one going before, I'd just rather get radiators replaced. It's not just rust; it's when the paint starts bubbling up slightly.

    The radiators are well over twenty years old, so they've had a good innings.

    (*) No, TSE, just no.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    edited October 10
    carnforth said:

    I just did the yearly check of my radiators (*) and found a patch of rust on one that I don't like the look of. I've had one leak in the past, so my friendly local plumber's now booked in to replace it.

    Preventative maintenance. :)

    (*) Am I the only person to do this?

    The boiler in my rental is 22 years old. It loses pressure slowly, and I have to top it up. Can't locate a leak though...

    Passes its safety check with flying colours, though. Perhaps we replace them too soon?

    https://www.theheatinghub.co.uk/articles/boiler-lifespans
    Depending on system type, the expansion vessel is likely shot - with no expansion capacity it will instead be losing water through the pressure relief valve (should be via a copper pipe to the outside of the building, near the boiler) causing you to need to top it up. Expansion vessel replacement or, likely easier, adding an extra, external one will fix if so. On the other hand, your landlord could stop being so tight, buy a new boiler and split the heating bills savings with you to pay for it.

    PlumbingBanter.com :smiley:

    ETA: Or alternatively a subtle leak as JJ mentioned. That could cause a lot of damage depending where it is, but - assuming you've mentioned to landlord - not so much your problem, I guess.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934
    Sandpit said:

    41/4 LOL.

    We appear to have broken their will to live....
  • carnforth said:

    I just did the yearly check of my radiators (*) and found a patch of rust on one that I don't like the look of. I've had one leak in the past, so my friendly local plumber's now booked in to replace it.

    Preventative maintenance. :)

    (*) Am I the only person to do this?

    The boiler in my rental is 22 years old. It loses pressure slowly, and I have to top it up. Can't locate a leak though...

    Passes its safety check with flying colours, though. Perhaps we replace them too soon?

    https://www.theheatinghub.co.uk/articles/boiler-lifespans
    I replaced our 18 year old combi boiler this March with another gas combi boiler for £2,600 and the difference in the heating, both radiators and hot water, is amazing and certainly confirmed our previous boiler had run its time
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,896
    Wowsers. Test cricket really is a sport played in the mind.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Time to give Bashir a bash ?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379
    Eabhal said:

    In some respects, it's a healthy thing that the PM isn't a military nerd. Middle aged men who obsess over this kind of stuff are really weird.

    *Chucks grenade and logs out of PB*

    :D:D:D
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,422
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kinabalu said:

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    Jenrick is surely the more radical candidate? Eg he's said he's had enough of European human rights whereas Badenoch is more ambivalent and it's possible she'll tolerate at least some of them.
    My post from yesterday got a bit lost as it was ten minutes before Cleverley got knocked out, but for those who want more background on Jenrick other than the obvious (mural-painting, Desmond-loving) this takedown of Jenrick's time as Housing Secretary by journalist Peter Apps is worth a read -

    https://peteapps.substack.com/p/robert-jenrick-was-the-worst-housing

    In it he describes Jenrick as both callous and uncaring, as well as ineffective, delivering catastrophe after catastrophe during his tenure, delivering plans described as 'unworkable as well as politically unpalatable'. Later, after losing his job, he sought to blame the Treasury for his failures, avoiding any sort of accountability.

    Apps goes on to note that no other housing minister attracted such a personal level of ire, with Brokenshire and Javid there was 'anger with the whole system' but with Jenrick 'it was personal'.

    As someone put it the other day, if you could turn this guy into an aerosol (no snickering at the back, please), you could put him in a can and market him as a literal voter-repellent.

    The Tories elect him at their peril.
    But he's now up against Badenoch, and many of the same things can be said about her: ineffective as a minister, blamed others, sought to blame civil servants all the time.
    Yes. The rumours about Badenoch say she is disliked within Whitehall

    However this may be true of any right wing minister who has a genuinely right wing agenda
    That’s probably the best reason to vote for her!

    Civil servants are supposed to enact the minister’s agenda and what Parliament passes, not constantly say no and push back because they don’t like the agenda.
    You’re taking Badenoch’s claims at face value. What if the civil servants are doing their best to enact their minister’s agenda, but Badenoch (or Jenrick) is a crap leader who is now just scapegoating them?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Eabhal said:

    The right-wing media are making a bit of an ass of themselves over Starmer and his uncle.

    Yes, some of the resultant memes are funny. But saying 'torpedoed' rather than 'bombed' is an easy misspeak to make. It's hardly major in the context, and I wouldn't classify it as a lie. His uncle served, and was on a ship that suffered damage in battle.

    In some respects, it's a healthy thing that the PM isn't a military nerd. Middle aged men who obsess over this kind of stuff are really weird.

    *Chucks grenade and logs out of PB*
    You left the pin in.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    kinabalu said:

    The right-wing media are making a bit of an ass of themselves over Starmer and his uncle.

    Yes, some of the resultant memes are funny. But saying 'torpedoed' rather than 'bombed' is an easy misspeak to make. It's hardly major in the context, and I wouldn't classify it as a lie. His uncle served, and was on a ship that suffered damage in battle.

    They hate Labour being in power. It's not how things are meant to be.
    It's not as though left-wing rags went easy on Tory governments or MPs, is it?
    But there isn't really a left wing equivalent to the MailExTeleSun monster.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,888

    The right-wing media are making a bit of an ass of themselves over Starmer and his uncle.

    Yes, some of the resultant memes are funny. But saying 'torpedoed' rather than 'bombed' is an easy misspeak to make. It's hardly major in the context, and I wouldn't classify it as a lie. His uncle served, and was on a ship that suffered damage in battle.

    Starmer is having a bit of an unfortunate run of misspeaking, calling Sunak PM repeatedly, releasing the sausages...
    So what?
    It makes for a confusing shopping list. Can I have a pound of hostages please?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,972

    Sandpit said:

    41/4 LOL.

    We appear to have broken their will to live....
    I need to look back through yesterday’s thread where I was wondering what the strategy from the captains might be, would one of them dare to make a declaration to try and force a result.

    I think it was @Pulpstar who suggested that the England plan should be to bat once by going full Bazball, and give them a day and a half to make the deficit. If that’s right then well done Pulpstar.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    The right-wing media are making a bit of an ass of themselves over Starmer and his uncle.

    Yes, some of the resultant memes are funny. But saying 'torpedoed' rather than 'bombed' is an easy misspeak to make. It's hardly major in the context, and I wouldn't classify it as a lie. His uncle served, and was on a ship that suffered damage in battle.

    Starmer is having a bit of an unfortunate run of misspeaking, calling Sunak PM repeatedly, releasing the sausages...
    So what?
    Misspeaks by the First Lord of the Treasury can cause diplomatic incidents, cause the stock market to crash, Sterling to crater, and start wars.
    Indeed. But mistaking a torpedo for a bomb in a war that took place when you were 20 years of age is hardly likely to do so.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405
    tlg86 said:

    I bet no one has ever won a test in four days having scored 800.

    They have, well in four days of playing cricket...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    edited October 10

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kinabalu said:

    ...

    Cookie said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think whoever wins will make it to the election.

    I’m minded to agree, it feels to me overpriced due to the musical chairs we all endured from them in the last 8 years. If they’re polling within a few points of Labour either way, I’m not convinced there’ll be any desire to change.

    The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
    The challenge for the Tories is simple - who are they?

    If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.

    The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.

    In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
    I don't agree Rochdale.
    Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
    I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.

    I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?

    She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
    We see this completely differently. Kemi is sounding off making right wing noises - showing some leg. Her actual record of delivery is poor. Jenrick has real policies - he has explained why he feels they need to be put in place, and he's now persuading people of the need for them. That puts him in an entirely league to her. That's also why all the centrists and left wingers on this board have instantly switched allegiance to Kemi after Jimmy Dimmly was knocked out.
    Jenrick is surely the more radical candidate? Eg he's said he's had enough of European human rights whereas Badenoch is more ambivalent and it's possible she'll tolerate at least some of them.
    My post from yesterday got a bit lost as it was ten minutes before Cleverley got knocked out, but for those who want more background on Jenrick other than the obvious (mural-painting, Desmond-loving) this takedown of Jenrick's time as Housing Secretary by journalist Peter Apps is worth a read -

    https://peteapps.substack.com/p/robert-jenrick-was-the-worst-housing

    In it he describes Jenrick as both callous and uncaring, as well as ineffective, delivering catastrophe after catastrophe during his tenure, delivering plans described as 'unworkable as well as politically unpalatable'. Later, after losing his job, he sought to blame the Treasury for his failures, avoiding any sort of accountability.

    Apps goes on to note that no other housing minister attracted such a personal level of ire, with Brokenshire and Javid there was 'anger with the whole system' but with Jenrick 'it was personal'.

    As someone put it the other day, if you could turn this guy into an aerosol (no snickering at the back, please), you could put him in a can and market him as a literal voter-repellent.

    The Tories elect him at their peril.
    But he's now up against Badenoch, and many of the same things can be said about her: ineffective as a minister, blamed others, sought to blame civil servants all the time.
    Yes. The rumours about Badenoch say she is disliked within Whitehall

    However this may be true of any right wing minister who has a genuinely right wing agenda
    That’s probably the best reason to vote for her!

    Civil servants are supposed to enact the minister’s agenda and what Parliament passes, not constantly say no and push back because they don’t like the agenda.
    You’re taking Badenoch’s claims at face value. What if the civil servants are doing their best to enact their minister’s agenda, but Badenoch (or Jenrick) is a crap leader who is now just scapegoating them?
    There's very little evidence of a Badenoch policy agenda that anyone could have thwarted or delayed. Can anyone step up to provide some ?

    Thus far, it's all vibes.

    As far as her TED talk goes, the two things she expounded on - her experiences of FE colleges, and overseas aid - are both things to which the Conservative administration made substantial funding cuts.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,091

    What in Zeus's arsehole is going on in Multan?

    This could be a Test victory for the ages.

    Isn't it simply that the bowlers & fielders are fresh and the batsmen are exhausted?
This discussion has been closed.