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Ladbrokes think the Tory contest winner will not lead the party at the GE – politicalbetting.com
Ladbrokes think the Tory contest winner will not lead the party at the GE – politicalbetting.com
Will the winner of this Tory leadership contest lead the party into the next General Election?No – 8/13Yes – 6/5https://t.co/HMNPFn40Uw
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My immediate reaction to the result yesterday was that it made it more likely Cleverly would lead the Tories into the next election. But then I had another think about it. In contriving to lose from a winning position of such strength he exhibited a level of political skill so low that he has surely disqualified himself from ever competing for the top job again. I always thought he was the best of the bad bunch. But maybe there really wasn't ever a best choice at all.
The Tories are clearly exhausted. I doubt they have the energy or the cohesion to go through yet another leadership selection.
Hope you get better soon.
Key will be who Kemi/Bobby J puts in their Shadow Cabinet and who gets excluded. It's hard to mount a 1922 committee challenge without at least some front bench experience.
Or a bit of both.
Hypothetical question, thinking, in particular, about Badenoch. If Liz Truss were the winning candidate to become Tory leader for the first time in this current election, how long would she serve as LOTO?
It becomes a real issue when only 15% is needed to trigger a vote of confidence.
We get lots and lots of Trump positive polls on here from a particular poster so I thought is there an alternative view to a comfortable Trump College win?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/michael-moore-prediction-president-trump-2024-b2625420.html
The Tories are not just exhausted, they are bereft of leadership: a choice of a loose cannon or a sleaze merchant. They are bereft of policies: still failing to understand the need for massive upgrades of UK infrastructure and a major change in economic direction. They are bereft of principles: still believing that withdrawal from the ECHR solves "immigration".
Many previously Conservative supporters, the "normal" wing, must be in confusion and even despair this morning.
It could be an easy gig or an extremely tough one. In the latter case, I doubt either of the two are really up to the challenge.
Is Badenoch, are any of them, ready to grovel for attention? I'm not entirely convinced.
IDS lasted 2 years
Michael Howard 2 years
David Cameron 11 years
Theresa May 3 years
Boris Johnson 3 years
Liz Truss 7 weeks
Rishi Sunak 2 years
The one caveat I’d make to that is how well they work with others. Badenoch for instance has often been accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room, if she p*sses enough people off that could see her go.
Not least because the measure would have benefitted their voters equally, perhaps even more than Democrats.
@CalebRudow, Democratic Rep. from Buncombe County, filed a bill to extend the voter registration deadline to 10/16 & allow absentee ballots 3 more days to arrive to accommodate the survivors of #Helene & protect their right to vote.
The entire House Republican Caucus voted no.
https://x.com/juliefornc/status/1844086227592675637
5465 MPH winds!
But only 3508 MPH in London:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
F1: not a surprise, but some info on Alpine being dysfunctional with half the team it seems not reporting to the team principal.
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article/former-alpine-chief-szafnauer-claims-he-had-absolutely-nothing-to-do-with.7ahHe9BAUOS8IyMBMCbwgh
On-topic: I was astonished by the Cleverly result.
If Trump loses - and loses narrowly - then its a severe risk of major political agitation at best, violence as the mid case scenario, and another attempted coup at worse.
Trump voters - fed by the sycophants inside the GOP -and client media - are being told this could be the last election. We saw what happened last time, and that was just a warm-up for what they can unleash this time.
The major difference? Trump isn't president, and the sitting president is on his way out. Which means a likely strong reaction from the federal authorities to Trump shenanigans. Which makes it even more likely that it kicks off.
We need Harris to win big.
Even though Labour has just won a huge landslide, the Tories don't take them seriously as a competitor in British politics. Nor do they take Reform seriously, except as a repository for protest votes, and as an argument in the political struggle that really matters - the one inside the Conservative party.
This is why they now remind me of Trotskyists. The internal factional struggle is the most important. If the Tories do badly at the locals next year, this is going to come as a bit if a shock given the dismissive attitude towards non-Tories (it shouldn't, because 2021 was a Tory high point). It could easily set off another period of internal struggle within the Tories.
And all the while there's Farage and the refrain:
Don't cha wish your leader was fun like me?
Don't cha?
I have now traded to a position that leaves me pretty much where I started.
I shall ask my mum who she is voting for and lump on that. She has picked the winner in all the previous contests that went to the members.
Which is one reason why it's so hilarious when Labour (in the current case) supporting posters say after (but never before) a candidate is eliminated "he's the one I was scared of".
There seems to be no recognition by the Party that they threw away an 80 seat majority and are now down to 121 MPs.
But oh no! Edinburgh is getting 17247 MPH winds!
In fact, it's worse than I thought. The figure's so large that it won't fit on their icons. If I inspect the html, I see my little town's getting 13508 MPH winds! Ten times Concorde's speed!
And this in a week when both the Chemistry and Physics Nobel prizes have been dished out to AI computer geeks.
If it was clear what modern Toryism was, we could find a way for a leader to lead it. But they seem to have long abandoned things like capitalism and conservatism, and instead march to the tune of Farage's pipe. That Farage is an agitator with zero policies or a plan to govern and yet they still want him demonstrates how far from safety they are.
The final 2 both represent the bonkers wing of the party, and with so few MPs the new leader will be sat on a hair-trigger before the letters trip the 22 into another entertaining blue on blue festival. If LOTO tries to keep MPs on board they lose the membership and get ousted by another further out in bonkers space. If they try to outmanoeuvre other insaniacs they get ousted by the Hunt caucus of MPs.
In short, the party looks unleadable. Hence the likelihood of another contest(s) before the election.
Marist have Trump ahead by only 4 points 51 to 47 .
Do either of the Magnificent Two have the gumption to keep going when it's so obviously futile?
In the if-it's-true-I'm-dead-anyway-and-if-not-it's-hilarious way.
I'd think 13,000 MPH winds would demolish pretty much anything above ground level; and might well suffocate those underground not in specialist bunkers.
https://x.com/dachshundcolin/status/1844038584694935937?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Well it didn't take long for all of us to lose interest in the Conservative leadership bunfight.
But they have, from a politics watcher’s perspective, delivered the tantalising prospect of a Kemi leadership which should be anything but dull.
If it becomes quasi-stable they can persist for a while, though normally that only happens somewhere like the edge of Antarctica. Meteogroup really should have had a filter in their downscaling for something like this though.
That’s going to be BUMPY
On the upside with the prevailing wind behind you your flight will only take a couple of minutes.
The many Americans on the ship are much more willing to discuss the election now they are free of home soil. There aren’t any Trump supporters on board that I have encountered - indeed I remember Jon Sopel asking a packed theatre on the ship whether anyone supported Trump some years ago, and found one couple.
But despite all having early-voted for Harris, they all expect Trump to win, unlike me. One said that Americans would never elect a black woman. They mostly expect the resolution of the election to drag out over days afterwards with lots of legal shenanigans, and many expect some serious urban disorder in the aftermath. For a perennially optimistic people, there’s a deep gloom about their political future. The best you get is the thought that the US has been through violence and disruption before but always pulled through. In the end.
Who wins the resulting by-elections?
There is no point in the Tories trying to out LibDem the LibDems. They won't be any good at it, and the LibDem voters will still vote LibDem. There's much more hope of recovering votes which went to Reform, and making Nigel leader would be the easiest way to do that.
If they can manage to put together a plausible anti-immigration, socially conservative, pro-business, low tax coalition, they almost certainly have the next election in the bag, especially given how venal and incompetent Labour is turning out to be.
I suppose we've had one or two who are brain dead, but a pulse does appear to be a minimum qualification, even in these woke times.
Kemi's views aren't extreme. She just makes little attempt to sugar coat them.
I don't really know what Jenrick thinks.
I think Kemi at least has a good opportunity to define what modern Conservatism does mean. Well, both of them do - but Kemi seems more of the thinker. Have you seen the TED talk she did that WilliamGlenn posted the link to last night?
She is, though, going to get painted as a mad extremist, because that's what happens to unapologetic Tories. It will be interesting to see how she responds.
I use the Met Office website which boringly matches the calm sea visible from here, so I'd have known nothing of the hurricane engulfing the UK.
Good morning, everyone.
Then get in Reform's face on detail and take them on head on as the bunch of chancers they are.
It is clear from Europe that hard right politics gets you somewhere, and if the Tories need to occupy that position, Reform must be squashed.
Lovely to see it and well done Joe
703 - 4
To do it by rail the journey is approx 1hr vs 2hrs, and the cost ~£30 vs ~£200 once the car has been in the long-stay car park for a week.
The difference would get him a Thai massage in Geneva.
Meanwhile, the October ‘74 election - the first I remember, and the start of my interest and involvement in politics - was fifty years ago today. And it’s Thursday again.