Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico There's an interplay btwn immigration debates & the birth-rate issue that is only rarely acknowledged. World birth rates are below replacement levels in every continent except Africa. China's popn is already decreasing & almost every country's popn will be shrinking by 2040.+
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h +None of this means we shld hv no immigration controls or that immigration does not present problems of its own. But I think history will look back on the past 25 years & pronounce our high immigration an act of geopolitical genius, massively enhancing the UK's long-term status.
The keys with immigrations are to build the housing and infrastructure in advance or at least in parallel, and ensure by the second generation that immigrant communities are fully integrated in terms of language and education and mostly integrated into culture.
I think also that if the people of a country are content to see their country gently decline in geopolitical terms, and would rather deal with the demographic challenges of a declining population, rather than the infrastructure challenges of a growing population, then in a democracy they should be able to make that choice.
We've recently had 14 years of a Conservative government promising to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, which would imply a total level of net migration of 1.4 million during their term of office. Net migration in 2022 and 2023 was above 1.4 million in those two years alone.
I am generally in favour of increasing people's freedom to move around the world and live where they want, but the democratic deficit is pretty clear.
Voters want lots of things.
The voters wanted immediate help with their huge rise in electricity bills. Rishi provided this. Helped many, many families over a cash crisis that was not remotely of the Conservative Government's making.
Not a single voter mentioned any gratitude on the doorstep. Not one.
Politically, he should have put it into the NHS.
I thought it was Gordon Brown who started the Winter Fuel Allowance.
How quickly people forget. This is not about the WFA. In 2022/23 Sunak did a series of refunds knocking hundreds of pounds of people's fuel bills for several months. Now I don't like Sunak and would debate if this was the right thing to do - or at least the right way to do it - but it is interesting that it seeems to have been completely wiped from people's minds to the extent that someone like yourself who pays a great deal of interest in politics etc has forgotten it - as I must admit had I to a large extent.
The voters are electing Nazis to deal with mass immigration and Olaf Scholz’s reaction is to import, en masse, a quarter of a million Kenyans
That’s not just pouring fuel on the fire, that’s buying the entire global reserves of Exxon and dropping it in the erupting volcano
This surging crisis could easily lead to the end of the EU. The underlying illogic of the EU, the crucial flaw, is that each country purports to have its own migration policy but, perforce, you must accept the migration policy of your EU neighbour, because Free Movement
Once those Kenyans get residency in Germany they are free to move anywhere in the EU, even though other EU countries might not want them. In the end that cannot be sustained
Today's big issue - Asda workers up in arms at the shitness of the music they are forced to listen to while they work.
I'm with them here. I like music as much as the next man - but I like the music which is to my taste. I'd rather have no music than music I don't like. I wouldn't expect other shoppers to be gleeful about having my playlists full of The Fall and Half Man Half Biscuit, and I don't understand the arrogance of people who think we all want to listen to their taste in terrible MOR in supermarkets.
No music at Lidl (at least as far as my experience goes), one of its many merits.
A minority of people (I am one) would prefer M6 traffic noise in a wet rush hour to unwanted music, but like silence better still.
I remember talking to the waiter at a restaurant at Christmas time about the music: they would get a CD of songs that they had payed for the rights to use and then put it on repeat. It was long enough that most customers wouldn’t hear all of it, but the staff would grow to loath even “Fairytale of New York” after a couple of weeks.
The current exhibition at The Baltic which runs until march includes a 'sound installation'.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico There's an interplay btwn immigration debates & the birth-rate issue that is only rarely acknowledged. World birth rates are below replacement levels in every continent except Africa. China's popn is already decreasing & almost every country's popn will be shrinking by 2040.+
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h +None of this means we shld hv no immigration controls or that immigration does not present problems of its own. But I think history will look back on the past 25 years & pronounce our high immigration an act of geopolitical genius, massively enhancing the UK's long-term status.
The keys with immigrations are to build the housing and infrastructure in advance or at least in parallel, and ensure by the second generation that immigrant communities are fully integrated in terms of language and education and mostly integrated into culture.
I think also that if the people of a country are content to see their country gently decline in geopolitical terms, and would rather deal with the demographic challenges of a declining population, rather than the infrastructure challenges of a growing population, then in a democracy they should be able to make that choice.
We've recently had 14 years of a Conservative government promising to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, which would imply a total level of net migration of 1.4 million during their term of office. Net migration in 2022 and 2023 was above 1.4 million in those two years alone.
I am generally in favour of increasing people's freedom to move around the world and live where they want, but the democratic deficit is pretty clear.
Voters want lots of things.
The voters wanted immediate help with their huge rise in electricity bills. Rishi provided this. Helped many, many families over a cash crisis that was not remotely of the Conservative Government's making.
Not a single voter mentioned any gratitude on the doorstep. Not one.
Politically, he should have put it into the NHS.
It was the right thing to do, but the govt didn't really have a choice - also a Truss policy rather than one initiated by Sunak. A large section of the public were simply not able to pay the higher bills without government intervention, and the newspapers were angling for a payment strike from those who could. So with no action the courts would have been overrun with energy debts, and more and more of the energy companies would go bankrupt.
They would have got (a bit) more credit had they championed the policy from when it was inevitable. I could be wrong but think the LDs came up with it first, Labour copied about a month later, and Tories derided it for another couple of months before the inevitable u-turn.
No sooner has Parliament sat down after a long summer break and it all stops again for a month for Conference season. Why?
It really gives the impression of a political system that exists for itself, not the people.
I take the line that the less time MPs are in parliament the better…
Parliament should only sit when it has something useful to do. The default position should be that it isn't sitting. MPs should be volunteers, paid expenses only, with the salary going to unglamorous constituency case workers. Nearly all real accountability from government and ministers is achieved in detailed discussions and exchanges well away from the chamber.
I agree: the idea that being an MP is a full time job and that they shouldn’t do anything else is contradicted by the fact that almost all members of the government are also MPs. If SKS can be prime minister while being an MP then back benchers should be able to do anything that doesn’t produce an obvious conflict of interest.
And how would you describe the quality of legislation we get or the level of scrutiny of government ministers and policies?
If its not working, and we keep doing the same thing, it ain't gonna get any better.
I’m not sure how those are linked. A lot of MPs do treat it as a full time job at the moment, but by that they seem to mean dealing with problems from their constituents rather than the legislative scrutiny you rightly point out is missing. There is also the problem of blindly voting on party lines of course. But that is not new; WS Gilbert had some choice comments on that in both “HMS Pinafore” and “Iolanthe”. I particularly remember the lines
“but then the prospect of a lot of dull MPs in close proximity All thinking for themselves is what No man can face with equinimity”
How would you improve it?
I think MPs should spend less time dealing with constituents’ problems. That really should be the job of a strengthened local government layer. I can’t think of another developed country where the national parliament reps have that kind of level of local activity. Other politicians meet that need: mayors, state governors and senators, regional assemblies and so on.
Perhaps if we got MPs focused more on national issues and bolstered local democracy and - importantly - tax raising powers, we’d see less NIMBYism creeping into national party politics.
We have gutted local government over the last 50 years. Plenty of people will be able to tell you who their local MP is but have no clue about who their local councillors are.
Absolutely stunning early autumn day in Devon. Mists first off, now bright blue skies.
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
A few degrees warmer would be nice. But regardless, it’s a beautiful day.
Heading down to the vineyard later with my daughter to check on the grapes and have a country walk. We narrowly escaped frost last night. 2.1C. One vineyard down in Sussex got down to 0.3C.
In Devon it drops to 10 degrees tonight, but then nothing lower than 14 for the rest of the week.* Should calm your nerves!
Might even get to see some moths.
*cavest: that is the BBC. Expect a new Ice Age....
How well does an earlier version of that glibness look now:
The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back – A portion of a statement that Obama made in an October 2012 debate. In the debate, Obama was deriding an earlier Romney statement in the campaign that Russia is "without question, our No. 1 geopolitical foe."
I think it's fairly widely acknowledged that Obama was less than brilliant on foreign policy. Quite a lot of PBers criticised him during his presidency for that. Are you saying Vance's bigotry is justified ?
I CANNOT BELIEVE I MISSED THE CASH THREAD YESTERDAY
Working too hard. But yes @TheScreamingEagles is right - cash is absolutely pointless. The arguments of the very few PBers who contested his view were incredibly weak.
Today's big issue - Asda workers up in arms at the shitness of the music they are forced to listen to while they work.
I'm with them here. I like music as much as the next man - but I like the music which is to my taste. I'd rather have no music than music I don't like. I wouldn't expect other shoppers to be gleeful about having my playlists full of The Fall and Half Man Half Biscuit, and I don't understand the arrogance of people who think we all want to listen to their taste in terrible MOR in supermarkets.
If I ever have to go into a supermarket (or, horror of horrors, a DIY store) that is playing any kind of musak I leave as fast as possible.
Soon after I wonder if this is a deliberate policy to make people grab at things and run before they have a chance to think too hard about what they actually need.
Retail during Christmas can be terrible. I had a no Christmas music policy and got lots of positive feedback from customers, and was the only way people could sustain those long busy shifts.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico There's an interplay btwn immigration debates & the birth-rate issue that is only rarely acknowledged. World birth rates are below replacement levels in every continent except Africa. China's popn is already decreasing & almost every country's popn will be shrinking by 2040.+
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h +None of this means we shld hv no immigration controls or that immigration does not present problems of its own. But I think history will look back on the past 25 years & pronounce our high immigration an act of geopolitical genius, massively enhancing the UK's long-term status.
The keys with immigrations are to build the housing and infrastructure in advance or at least in parallel, and ensure by the second generation that immigrant communities are fully integrated in terms of language and education and mostly integrated into culture.
I think also that if the people of a country are content to see their country gently decline in geopolitical terms, and would rather deal with the demographic challenges of a declining population, rather than the infrastructure challenges of a growing population, then in a democracy they should be able to make that choice.
We've recently had 14 years of a Conservative government promising to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, which would imply a total level of net migration of 1.4 million during their term of office. Net migration in 2022 and 2023 was above 1.4 million in those two years alone.
I am generally in favour of increasing people's freedom to move around the world and live where they want, but the democratic deficit is pretty clear.
Voters want lots of things.
The voters wanted immediate help with their huge rise in electricity bills. Rishi provided this. Helped many, many families over a cash crisis that was not remotely of the Conservative Government's making.
Not a single voter mentioned any gratitude on the doorstep. Not one.
Politically, he should have put it into the NHS.
I thought it was Gordon Brown who started the Winter Fuel Allowance.
Mark is talking about the additional payments we got during the Russia gas crisis.
No sooner has Parliament sat down after a long summer break and it all stops again for a month for Conference season. Why?
It really gives the impression of a political system that exists for itself, not the people.
I take the line that the less time MPs are in parliament the better…
Parliament should only sit when it has something useful to do. The default position should be that it isn't sitting. MPs should be volunteers, paid expenses only, with the salary going to unglamorous constituency case workers. Nearly all real accountability from government and ministers is achieved in detailed discussions and exchanges well away from the chamber.
I agree: the idea that being an MP is a full time job and that they shouldn’t do anything else is contradicted by the fact that almost all members of the government are also MPs. If SKS can be prime minister while being an MP then back benchers should be able to do anything that doesn’t produce an obvious conflict of interest.
And how would you describe the quality of legislation we get or the level of scrutiny of government ministers and policies?
If its not working, and we keep doing the same thing, it ain't gonna get any better.
I’m not sure how those are linked. A lot of MPs do treat it as a full time job at the moment, but by that they seem to mean dealing with problems from their constituents rather than the legislative scrutiny you rightly point out is missing. There is also the problem of blindly voting on party lines of course. But that is not new; WS Gilbert had some choice comments on that in both “HMS Pinafore” and “Iolanthe”. I particularly remember the lines
“but then the prospect of a lot of dull MPs in close proximity All thinking for themselves is what No man can face with equinimity”
How would you improve it?
One thing I would suggest MPs is specialise in one or two areas of interest and consistently stay within those areas for ministerial, shadow and select committee appointments to ensure they can build up and share subject matter expertise.
Defence Minister Pistorius (SPD) continues to be by some distance the most popular political leader in Germany (and AfD leader Weidel the most unpopular)
In the assessment of politicians according to likeability and performance (“What do you think of?”), Defense Minister Boris Pistorius remains unchallenged in first place. He is rated on a scale of +5 to -5 with an average score of 1.8 (August: 1.7). Markus Söder is a distant second with 0.2 (0.0). After that, the negative range begins: Friedrich Merz with minus 0.1 (minus 0.2), Karl Lauterbach with minus 0.8 (minus 0.5), Robert Habeck with minus 0.8 (minus 0.4), Annalena Baerbock with her personal negative record of minus 0.9 (minus 0.5), Olaf Scholz, also with minus 0.9 (minus 0.7), Christian Lindner with minus 1.1 (minus 0.9) and Sahra Wagenknecht with minus 1.1 (minus 1.1). Alice Weidel remains clearly in negative territory with minus 2.7 (minus 2.7).
It would surely make sense for the SPD to have Pistorius as Chancellor-candidate at the next election rather than the useless Scholz.
I CANNOT BELIEVE I MISSED THE CASH THREAD YESTERDAY
Working too hard. But yes @TheScreamingEagles is right - cash is absolutely pointless. The arguments of the very few PBers who contested his view were incredibly weak.
A statement that could only be made by someone who has never done any work in poorer communities where families use cash as a means of controlling their budgets.
And that is before you even start on the question of the digital divide.
I have no idea if TSE is right or wrong but the whole of the previous thread was a classically middle class argument with a wonderful lack of awareness.
The voters are electing Nazis to deal with mass immigration and Olaf Scholz’s reaction is to import, en masse, a quarter of a million Kenyans
That’s not just pouring fuel on the fire, that’s buying the entire global reserves of Exxon and dropping it in the erupting volcano
This surging crisis could easily lead to the end of the EU. The underlying illogic of the EU, the crucial flaw, is that each country purports to have its own migration policy but, perforce, you must accept the migration policy of your EU neighbour, because Free Movement
Once those Kenyans get residency in Germany they are free to move anywhere in the EU, even though other EU countries might not want them. In the end that cannot be sustained
"Once those Kenyans get residency in Germany they are free to move anywhere in the EU" well that is flat out wrong for a start. But congrats on maintaining your record of 100% of your posts that mention Germany containing ignorant bullshit.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico There's an interplay btwn immigration debates & the birth-rate issue that is only rarely acknowledged. World birth rates are below replacement levels in every continent except Africa. China's popn is already decreasing & almost every country's popn will be shrinking by 2040.+
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h +None of this means we shld hv no immigration controls or that immigration does not present problems of its own. But I think history will look back on the past 25 years & pronounce our high immigration an act of geopolitical genius, massively enhancing the UK's long-term status.
The keys with immigrations are to build the housing and infrastructure in advance or at least in parallel, and ensure by the second generation that immigrant communities are fully integrated in terms of language and education and mostly integrated into culture.
I think also that if the people of a country are content to see their country gently decline in geopolitical terms, and would rather deal with the demographic challenges of a declining population, rather than the infrastructure challenges of a growing population, then in a democracy they should be able to make that choice.
We've recently had 14 years of a Conservative government promising to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, which would imply a total level of net migration of 1.4 million during their term of office. Net migration in 2022 and 2023 was above 1.4 million in those two years alone.
I am generally in favour of increasing people's freedom to move around the world and live where they want, but the democratic deficit is pretty clear.
Voters want lots of things.
The voters wanted immediate help with their huge rise in electricity bills. Rishi provided this. Helped many, many families over a cash crisis that was not remotely of the Conservative Government's making.
Not a single voter mentioned any gratitude on the doorstep. Not one.
Politically, he should have put it into the NHS.
I thought it was Gordon Brown who started the Winter Fuel Allowance.
Surely a reference to the Fuel Price Cap brought in under Truss (albeit as proposed by Miliband)?
There's the £2,500 fuel price cap, the £400 per house during winter 2022/23, the £900 extra for low income and oldies during 2023 and 2024, the month's council tax rebate during 2022.
The government did balance it quite well between giving some help to everyone, extra help to the most vulnerable and still encouraging people to be more energy efficient.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico There's an interplay btwn immigration debates & the birth-rate issue that is only rarely acknowledged. World birth rates are below replacement levels in every continent except Africa. China's popn is already decreasing & almost every country's popn will be shrinking by 2040.+
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h +None of this means we shld hv no immigration controls or that immigration does not present problems of its own. But I think history will look back on the past 25 years & pronounce our high immigration an act of geopolitical genius, massively enhancing the UK's long-term status.
The keys with immigrations are to build the housing and infrastructure in advance or at least in parallel, and ensure by the second generation that immigrant communities are fully integrated in terms of language and education and mostly integrated into culture.
I think also that if the people of a country are content to see their country gently decline in geopolitical terms, and would rather deal with the demographic challenges of a declining population, rather than the infrastructure challenges of a growing population, then in a democracy they should be able to make that choice.
We've recently had 14 years of a Conservative government promising to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, which would imply a total level of net migration of 1.4 million during their term of office. Net migration in 2022 and 2023 was above 1.4 million in those two years alone.
I am generally in favour of increasing people's freedom to move around the world and live where they want, but the democratic deficit is pretty clear.
Voters want lots of things.
The voters wanted immediate help with their huge rise in electricity bills. Rishi provided this. Helped many, many families over a cash crisis that was not remotely of the Conservative Government's making.
Not a single voter mentioned any gratitude on the doorstep. Not one.
Politically, he should have put it into the NHS.
I thought it was Gordon Brown who started the Winter Fuel Allowance.
How quickly people forget. This is not about the WFA. In 2022/23 Sunak did a series of refunds knocking hundreds of pounds of people's fuel bills for several months. Now I don't like Sunak and would debate if this was the right thing to do - or at least the right way to do it - but it is interesting that it seeems to have been completely wiped from people's minds to the extent that someone like yourself who pays a great deal of interest in politics etc has forgotten it - as I must admit had I to a large extent.
Nobody is grateful if you solve a problem in advance. In part that's because there's no emotional hook to hang the memory of the solved problem on.
The evil, but politically astute, thing to do would have been let the enormous bills land, then give people a pile of money.
Absolutely stunning early autumn day in Devon. Mists first off, now bright blue skies.
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
Canada isn’t ALL bad
Yebbut...I get this from the house every day....
That is lovely. Indeed lovelier
I continue to have mixed feelings about the Okanagan. Sometimes it can look strikingly beautiful, but my god the tourist tat, the kitsch resort architecture, the strip malls and the overdevelopment
Yuk. North Americans really know how to fuck up a place, unless it is protected by National Park status
The wine is excellent. I was talking to a winemaker today and I told her I presumed it was global warming that made wine growing ever easier in this northerly latitude. She scoffed and said the first wine was made in 1860 - a Catholic priest needing communion wine for his settler congregation
They just needed to apply science. The terroir is amazingly fertile with all kinds of slopes and elevations and soils (volcanic, sandy, old lakebed)
They can make almost any wine they want
But is it beautiful? Not really. Not for a European. Especially a European who has just come from ravishingly pretty Montenegro. Or indeed south Devon
Defence Minister Pistorius (SPD) continues to be by some distance the most popular political leader in Germany (and AfD leader Weidel the most unpopular)
In the assessment of politicians according to likeability and performance (“What do you think of?”), Defense Minister Boris Pistorius remains unchallenged in first place. He is rated on a scale of +5 to -5 with an average score of 1.8 (August: 1.7). Markus Söder is a distant second with 0.2 (0.0). After that, the negative range begins: Friedrich Merz with minus 0.1 (minus 0.2), Karl Lauterbach with minus 0.8 (minus 0.5), Robert Habeck with minus 0.8 (minus 0.4), Annalena Baerbock with her personal negative record of minus 0.9 (minus 0.5), Olaf Scholz, also with minus 0.9 (minus 0.7), Christian Lindner with minus 1.1 (minus 0.9) and Sahra Wagenknecht with minus 1.1 (minus 1.1). Alice Weidel remains clearly in negative territory with minus 2.7 (minus 2.7).
It would surely make sense for the SPD to have Pistorius as Chancellor-candidate at the next election rather than the useless Scholz.
Didn't Pistorius only get the job because the box ticking predecessor was even weaker than Scholz ?
The voters are electing Nazis to deal with mass immigration and Olaf Scholz’s reaction is to import, en masse, a quarter of a million Kenyans
That’s not just pouring fuel on the fire, that’s buying the entire global reserves of Exxon and dropping it in the erupting volcano
This surging crisis could easily lead to the end of the EU. The underlying illogic of the EU, the crucial flaw, is that each country purports to have its own migration policy but, perforce, you must accept the migration policy of your EU neighbour, because Free Movement
Once those Kenyans get residency in Germany they are free to move anywhere in the EU, even though other EU countries might not want them. In the end that cannot be sustained
That is not exactly true.
They would need to be permanently resident in Germany for 5 years. Then they apply for an EU long term residency permit. Then they can move around and work/settle in other EU countries. But if they live outside Germany for more than 6 years after that they lose their long term residency permit and so will lose their right to stay in the EU.
A number of significant questions will be answered, at least in part, by the Conservative Party’s latest leadership contest. Chief among them is this: do the Tories wish to be the party of weird?
At present, the signs are not altogether encouraging. Robert Jenrick, still largely unknown as far as the general public is concerned but at present topping the ballot among his peers in the House of Commons, has embraced the weird.
If Jenrick were the only significant Tory to do so this might be of little concern but he is not. For, like Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, Jenrick has cheerfully endorsed Donald Trump’s campaign for the presidency of the United States. Perhaps he thinks this will help him with the pet owners’ vote but, regardless of any other considerations, Jenrick’s enthusiasm for Trump is a grim indication of how the wind is blowing in Tory circles.
One of the big questions for British politics is whether the next leader of the Conservative Party will succeed in reuniting the right of centre vote by convincing Tory voters to believe the things that Reform voters believe in.
Reform is anti-immigration and got 4,117,221 votes. The Conservatives are pro-growth and allow/encourage large-scale migration to fuel it, and got 6,827,311. If the next leader of the Conservatives does culture war and ignores migration, then Meeks will be right: they will fall further
The voters are electing Nazis to deal with mass immigration and Olaf Scholz’s reaction is to import, en masse, a quarter of a million Kenyans
That’s not just pouring fuel on the fire, that’s buying the entire global reserves of Exxon and dropping it in the erupting volcano
This surging crisis could easily lead to the end of the EU. The underlying illogic of the EU, the crucial flaw, is that each country purports to have its own migration policy but, perforce, you must accept the migration policy of your EU neighbour, because Free Movement
Once those Kenyans get residency in Germany they are free to move anywhere in the EU, even though other EU countries might not want them. In the end that cannot be sustained
"Once those Kenyans get residency in Germany they are free to move anywhere in the EU" well that is flat out wrong for a start. But congrats on maintaining your record of 100% of your posts that mention Germany containing ignorant bullshit.
They are free to move because there are no internal borders in Schenghen. lol. Are you disputing this?!
The voters are electing Nazis to deal with mass immigration and Olaf Scholz’s reaction is to import, en masse, a quarter of a million Kenyans
That’s not just pouring fuel on the fire, that’s buying the entire global reserves of Exxon and dropping it in the erupting volcano
This surging crisis could easily lead to the end of the EU. The underlying illogic of the EU, the crucial flaw, is that each country purports to have its own migration policy but, perforce, you must accept the migration policy of your EU neighbour, because Free Movement
Once those Kenyans get residency in Germany they are free to move anywhere in the EU, even though other EU countries might not want them. In the end that cannot be sustained
That is not exactly true.
They would need to be permanently resident in Germany for 5 years. Then they apply for an EU long term residency permit. Then they can move around and work/settle in other EU countries. But if they live outside Germany for more than 6 years after that they lose their long term residency permit and so will lose their right to stay in the EU.
I mean they can move freely because of Schenghen. Other pan-EU rights accrue later
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico There's an interplay btwn immigration debates & the birth-rate issue that is only rarely acknowledged. World birth rates are below replacement levels in every continent except Africa. China's popn is already decreasing & almost every country's popn will be shrinking by 2040.+
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h +None of this means we shld hv no immigration controls or that immigration does not present problems of its own. But I think history will look back on the past 25 years & pronounce our high immigration an act of geopolitical genius, massively enhancing the UK's long-term status.
The keys with immigrations are to build the housing and infrastructure in advance or at least in parallel, and ensure by the second generation that immigrant communities are fully integrated in terms of language and education and mostly integrated into culture.
I think also that if the people of a country are content to see their country gently decline in geopolitical terms, and would rather deal with the demographic challenges of a declining population, rather than the infrastructure challenges of a growing population, then in a democracy they should be able to make that choice.
We've recently had 14 years of a Conservative government promising to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, which would imply a total level of net migration of 1.4 million during their term of office. Net migration in 2022 and 2023 was above 1.4 million in those two years alone.
I am generally in favour of increasing people's freedom to move around the world and live where they want, but the democratic deficit is pretty clear.
Voters want lots of things.
The voters wanted immediate help with their huge rise in electricity bills. Rishi provided this. Helped many, many families over a cash crisis that was not remotely of the Conservative Government's making.
Not a single voter mentioned any gratitude on the doorstep. Not one....
If it helps, I sympathise. Covid was a big thing and although I would argue they did not do a big thing too well, the Conservatives did not do a big thing badly. Many countries did a lot worse.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico There's an interplay btwn immigration debates & the birth-rate issue that is only rarely acknowledged. World birth rates are below replacement levels in every continent except Africa. China's popn is already decreasing & almost every country's popn will be shrinking by 2040.+
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h +None of this means we shld hv no immigration controls or that immigration does not present problems of its own. But I think history will look back on the past 25 years & pronounce our high immigration an act of geopolitical genius, massively enhancing the UK's long-term status.
The keys with immigrations are to build the housing and infrastructure in advance or at least in parallel, and ensure by the second generation that immigrant communities are fully integrated in terms of language and education and mostly integrated into culture.
I think also that if the people of a country are content to see their country gently decline in geopolitical terms, and would rather deal with the demographic challenges of a declining population, rather than the infrastructure challenges of a growing population, then in a democracy they should be able to make that choice.
We've recently had 14 years of a Conservative government promising to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, which would imply a total level of net migration of 1.4 million during their term of office. Net migration in 2022 and 2023 was above 1.4 million in those two years alone.
I am generally in favour of increasing people's freedom to move around the world and live where they want, but the democratic deficit is pretty clear.
Voters want lots of things.
The voters wanted immediate help with their huge rise in electricity bills. Rishi provided this. Helped many, many families over a cash crisis that was not remotely of the Conservative Government's making.
Not a single voter mentioned any gratitude on the doorstep. Not one.
Politically, he should have put it into the NHS.
I thought it was Gordon Brown who started the Winter Fuel Allowance.
How quickly people forget. This is not about the WFA. In 2022/23 Sunak did a series of refunds knocking hundreds of pounds of people's fuel bills for several months. Now I don't like Sunak and would debate if this was the right thing to do - or at least the right way to do it - but it is interesting that it seeems to have been completely wiped from people's minds to the extent that someone like yourself who pays a great deal of interest in politics etc has forgotten it - as I must admit had I to a large extent.
Absolutely stunning early autumn day in Devon. Mists first off, now bright blue skies.
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
Canada isn’t ALL bad
Yebbut...I get this from the house every day....
That is lovely. Indeed lovelier
I continue to have mixed feelings about the Okanagan. Sometimes it can look strikingly beautiful, but my god the tourist tat, the kitsch resort architecture, the strip malls and the overdevelopment
Yuk. North Americans really know how to fuck up a place, unless it is protected by National Park status
The wine is excellent. I was talking to a winemaker today and I told her I presumed it was global warming that made wine growing ever easier in this northerly latitude. She scoffed and said the first wine was made in 1860 - a Catholic priest needing communion wine for his settler congregation
They just needed to apply science. The terroir is amazingly fertile with all kinds of slopes and elevations and soils (volcanic, sandy, old lakebed)
They can make almost any wine they want
But is it beautiful? Not really. Not for a European. Especially a European who has just come from ravishingly pretty Montenegro. Or indeed south Devon
They called it Paradise I don't know why Call some place Paradise Kiss it Goodbye
Birmingham Council: Cons have 22 Councillors Lib Dems 13
Shabina Bano has quit the Labour Party and joined the Liberal Democrats after a two year dispute over claims of misogyny and bullying. In a damning resignation statement, she accused the city council’s ruling Labour leadership of failing to properly address her concerns, first raised soon after her election in 2022…
She added: “This is not an attack on any individual, but rather a reflection of the toxic dynamics at play within Birmingham Labour. My goal in politics has always been to empower people, fight for equality, and ensure every voice is heard. I am confident the Birmingham Liberal Democrats will allow me to continue this important work, free from the infighting that has plagued my time in Labour.”
Absolutely stunning early autumn day in Devon. Mists first off, now bright blue skies.
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
Canada isn’t ALL bad
Yebbut...I get this from the house every day....
That is lovely. Indeed lovelier
I continue to have mixed feelings about the Okanagan. Sometimes it can look strikingly beautiful, but my god the tourist tat, the kitsch resort architecture, the strip malls and the overdevelopment
Yuk. North Americans really know how to fuck up a place, unless it is protected by National Park status
The wine is excellent. I was talking to a winemaker today and I told her I presumed it was global warming that made wine growing ever easier in this northerly latitude. She scoffed and said the first wine was made in 1860 - a Catholic priest needing communion wine for his settler congregation
They just needed to apply science. The terroir is amazingly fertile with all kinds of slopes and elevations and soils (volcanic, sandy, old lakebed)
They can make almost any wine they want
But is it beautiful? Not really. Not for a European. Especially a European who has just come from ravishingly pretty Montenegro. Or indeed south Devon
With the possible exception of some bits of coastal California or New England, I’d say North America is beautiful only when it’s empty. The deserts, the more national parky mountains, the Canadian lakes and forests. They just don’t do pretty villages, that’s the problem.
The voters are electing Nazis to deal with mass immigration and Olaf Scholz’s reaction is to import, en masse, a quarter of a million Kenyans
That’s not just pouring fuel on the fire, that’s buying the entire global reserves of Exxon and dropping it in the erupting volcano
This surging crisis could easily lead to the end of the EU. The underlying illogic of the EU, the crucial flaw, is that each country purports to have its own migration policy but, perforce, you must accept the migration policy of your EU neighbour, because Free Movement
Once those Kenyans get residency in Germany they are free to move anywhere in the EU, even though other EU countries might not want them. In the end that cannot be sustained
That is not exactly true.
They would need to be permanently resident in Germany for 5 years. Then they apply for an EU long term residency permit. Then they can move around and work/settle in other EU countries. But if they live outside Germany for more than 6 years after that they lose their long term residency permit and so will lose their right to stay in the EU.
I mean they can move freely because of Schenghen. Other pan-EU rights accrue later
I CANNOT BELIEVE I MISSED THE CASH THREAD YESTERDAY
Working too hard. But yes @TheScreamingEagles is right - cash is absolutely pointless. The arguments of the very few PBers who contested his view were incredibly weak.
I assumed that you drugged TSE with an anterograde amnesia-inducer, then stole his password, logged-in, wrote the article, logged-out, induced a post-hypnotic belief that he wrote it, then left the apartment cleaning your fingerprints off the doorknobs as you went.
Then came here saying things like "I CANNOT BELIEVE I MISSED THE CASH THREAD YESTERDAY" to provide an alibi. like Clark Kent saying "Superman was just here? Gee I always miss him"
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico There's an interplay btwn immigration debates & the birth-rate issue that is only rarely acknowledged. World birth rates are below replacement levels in every continent except Africa. China's popn is already decreasing & almost every country's popn will be shrinking by 2040.+
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 1h +None of this means we shld hv no immigration controls or that immigration does not present problems of its own. But I think history will look back on the past 25 years & pronounce our high immigration an act of geopolitical genius, massively enhancing the UK's long-term status.
The keys with immigrations are to build the housing and infrastructure in advance or at least in parallel, and ensure by the second generation that immigrant communities are fully integrated in terms of language and education and mostly integrated into culture.
I think also that if the people of a country are content to see their country gently decline in geopolitical terms, and would rather deal with the demographic challenges of a declining population, rather than the infrastructure challenges of a growing population, then in a democracy they should be able to make that choice.
We've recently had 14 years of a Conservative government promising to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, which would imply a total level of net migration of 1.4 million during their term of office. Net migration in 2022 and 2023 was above 1.4 million in those two years alone.
I am generally in favour of increasing people's freedom to move around the world and live where they want, but the democratic deficit is pretty clear.
Voters want lots of things.
The voters wanted immediate help with their huge rise in electricity bills. Rishi provided this. Helped many, many families over a cash crisis that was not remotely of the Conservative Government's making.
Not a single voter mentioned any gratitude on the doorstep. Not one.
Politically, he should have put it into the NHS.
I thought it was Gordon Brown who started the Winter Fuel Allowance.
Surely a reference to the Fuel Price Cap brought in under Truss (albeit as proposed by Miliband)?
Ironic that small state queen Liz Truss should make one of the biggest state interventions.
Absolutely stunning early autumn day in Devon. Mists first off, now bright blue skies.
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
Canada isn’t ALL bad
Yebbut...I get this from the house every day....
That is lovely. Indeed lovelier
I continue to have mixed feelings about the Okanagan. Sometimes it can look strikingly beautiful, but my god the tourist tat, the kitsch resort architecture, the strip malls and the overdevelopment
Yuk. North Americans really know how to fuck up a place, unless it is protected by National Park status
The wine is excellent. I was talking to a winemaker today and I told her I presumed it was global warming that made wine growing ever easier in this northerly latitude. She scoffed and said the first wine was made in 1860 - a Catholic priest needing communion wine for his settler congregation
They just needed to apply science. The terroir is amazingly fertile with all kinds of slopes and elevations and soils (volcanic, sandy, old lakebed)
They can make almost any wine they want
But is it beautiful? Not really. Not for a European. Especially a European who has just come from ravishingly pretty Montenegro. Or indeed south Devon
With the possible exception of some bits of coastal California or New England, I’d say North America is beautiful only when it’s empty. The deserts, the more national parky mountains, the Canadian lakes and forests. They just don’t do pretty villages, that’s the problem.
Quite so. Some of the ribbon development around here seems WILFULLY ugly. Not just accidentally tatty, but consciously striving to make the view worse. Garish colours and cheap materials and a total refusal to consider context
The comparison with the sublime empty beauty of Manning Park that I visited en route - just pine forests and whispering lakes - is stark
Weirdly, they can do beautiful cities that are entirely American. New York. Chicago
Defence Minister Pistorius (SPD) continues to be by some distance the most popular political leader in Germany (and AfD leader Weidel the most unpopular)
In the assessment of politicians according to likeability and performance (“What do you think of?”), Defense Minister Boris Pistorius remains unchallenged in first place. He is rated on a scale of +5 to -5 with an average score of 1.8 (August: 1.7). Markus Söder is a distant second with 0.2 (0.0). After that, the negative range begins: Friedrich Merz with minus 0.1 (minus 0.2), Karl Lauterbach with minus 0.8 (minus 0.5), Robert Habeck with minus 0.8 (minus 0.4), Annalena Baerbock with her personal negative record of minus 0.9 (minus 0.5), Olaf Scholz, also with minus 0.9 (minus 0.7), Christian Lindner with minus 1.1 (minus 0.9) and Sahra Wagenknecht with minus 1.1 (minus 1.1). Alice Weidel remains clearly in negative territory with minus 2.7 (minus 2.7).
It would surely make sense for the SPD to have Pistorius as Chancellor-candidate at the next election rather than the useless Scholz.
Didn't Pistorius only get the job because the box ticking predecessor was even weaker than Scholz ?
Perhaps time to change the Chancellor, then ?
‘Germany will not send Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine,’ said Scholz
‘We have made a clear decision about what we will and will not do. This decision will not change,’ he added.
The voters are electing Nazis to deal with mass immigration and Olaf Scholz’s reaction is to import, en masse, a quarter of a million Kenyans
That’s not just pouring fuel on the fire, that’s buying the entire global reserves of Exxon and dropping it in the erupting volcano
This surging crisis could easily lead to the end of the EU. The underlying illogic of the EU, the crucial flaw, is that each country purports to have its own migration policy but, perforce, you must accept the migration policy of your EU neighbour, because Free Movement
Once those Kenyans get residency in Germany they are free to move anywhere in the EU, even though other EU countries might not want them. In the end that cannot be sustained
Still, the ‘EU are rayzist against non-white non-European’ lads will be feeling a bit shamefaced.
A number of significant questions will be answered, at least in part, by the Conservative Party’s latest leadership contest. Chief among them is this: do the Tories wish to be the party of weird?
At present, the signs are not altogether encouraging. Robert Jenrick, still largely unknown as far as the general public is concerned but at present topping the ballot among his peers in the House of Commons, has embraced the weird.
If Jenrick were the only significant Tory to do so this might be of little concern but he is not. For, like Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, Jenrick has cheerfully endorsed Donald Trump’s campaign for the presidency of the United States. Perhaps he thinks this will help him with the pet owners’ vote but, regardless of any other considerations, Jenrick’s enthusiasm for Trump is a grim indication of how the wind is blowing in Tory circles.
Absolutely stunning early autumn day in Devon. Mists first off, now bright blue skies.
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
Canada isn’t ALL bad
Yebbut...I get this from the house every day....
Just this week someone was praising the views of rural Essex. Yes, abroad has great natural views but so does everywhere. Not much is unique. There's no Niagra Falls in London or Paris, admittedly, but most countries offer fields and forests, and hills and coasts.
No sooner has Parliament sat down after a long summer break and it all stops again for a month for Conference season. Why?
It really gives the impression of a political system that exists for itself, not the people.
I take the line that the less time MPs are in parliament the better…
Parliament should only sit when it has something useful to do. The default position should be that it isn't sitting. MPs should be volunteers, paid expenses only, with the salary going to unglamorous constituency case workers. Nearly all real accountability from government and ministers is achieved in detailed discussions and exchanges well away from the chamber.
I agree: the idea that being an MP is a full time job and that they shouldn’t do anything else is contradicted by the fact that almost all members of the government are also MPs. If SKS can be prime minister while being an MP then back benchers should be able to do anything that doesn’t produce an obvious conflict of interest.
And how would you describe the quality of legislation we get or the level of scrutiny of government ministers and policies?
If its not working, and we keep doing the same thing, it ain't gonna get any better.
I’m not sure how those are linked. A lot of MPs do treat it as a full time job at the moment, but by that they seem to mean dealing with problems from their constituents rather than the legislative scrutiny you rightly point out is missing. There is also the problem of blindly voting on party lines of course. But that is not new; WS Gilbert had some choice comments on that in both “HMS Pinafore” and “Iolanthe”. I particularly remember the lines
“but then the prospect of a lot of dull MPs in close proximity All thinking for themselves is what No man can face with equinimity”
How would you improve it?
I think MPs should spend less time dealing with constituents’ problems. That really should be the job of a strengthened local government layer. I can’t think of another developed country where the national parliament reps have that kind of level of local activity. Other politicians meet that need: mayors, state governors and senators, regional assemblies and so on.
Perhaps if we got MPs focused more on national issues and bolstered local democracy and - importantly - tax raising powers, we’d see less NIMBYism creeping into national party politics.
Some might say that the constituency work is the only thing that keeps *some* MPs attached to the reality of the lives of their constituents.
To irritate everyone even further, I'll offer my thoughts on today's big races at Doncaster and Leopardstown.
On Town Moor, I've backed YOU GOT TO ME to become the first filly to win the Leger since Simple Verse - ILLINOIS is the percentage call on form but I think he may be a bit one paced.
The better card is at Leopardstown. In the Matron, PORTA FORTUNA is the unoriginal choice - my each way play, ROGUE MILLENNIUM, was withdrawn this morning so I'm not playing in the race.
The Irish Champion is a superb race - the clash between ECONOMICS and AUGUSTE RODIN is one to savour, I've backed GHOSTWRITER each way as there are eight runners and they will pay three places. I got on at 7s earlier in the week.
Absolutely stunning early autumn day in Devon. Mists first off, now bright blue skies.
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
Canada isn’t ALL bad
Yebbut...I get this from the house every day....
That is lovely. Indeed lovelier
I continue to have mixed feelings about the Okanagan. Sometimes it can look strikingly beautiful, but my god the tourist tat, the kitsch resort architecture, the strip malls and the overdevelopment
Yuk. North Americans really know how to fuck up a place, unless it is protected by National Park status
The wine is excellent. I was talking to a winemaker today and I told her I presumed it was global warming that made wine growing ever easier in this northerly latitude. She scoffed and said the first wine was made in 1860 - a Catholic priest needing communion wine for his settler congregation
They just needed to apply science. The terroir is amazingly fertile with all kinds of slopes and elevations and soils (volcanic, sandy, old lakebed)
They can make almost any wine they want
But is it beautiful? Not really. Not for a European. Especially a European who has just come from ravishingly pretty Montenegro. Or indeed south Devon
With the possible exception of some bits of coastal California or New England, I’d say North America is beautiful only when it’s empty. The deserts, the more national parky mountains, the Canadian lakes and forests. They just don’t do pretty villages, that’s the problem.
Quite so. Some of the ribbon development around here seems WILFULLY ugly. Not just accidentally tatty, but consciously striving to make the view worse. Garish colours and cheap materials and a total refusal to consider context
The comparison with the sublime empty beauty of Manning Park that I visited en route - just pine forests and whispering lakes - is stark
Weirdly, they can do beautiful cities that are entirely American. New York. Chicago
There are beautiful small towns in the US. But most were developed before the automobile.
The car, of course, is why the majority of development there is so hideous. It's not a mystery.
No sooner has Parliament sat down after a long summer break and it all stops again for a month for Conference season. Why?
It really gives the impression of a political system that exists for itself, not the people.
I take the line that the less time MPs are in parliament the better…
Parliament should only sit when it has something useful to do. The default position should be that it isn't sitting. MPs should be volunteers, paid expenses only, with the salary going to unglamorous constituency case workers. Nearly all real accountability from government and ministers is achieved in detailed discussions and exchanges well away from the chamber.
I agree: the idea that being an MP is a full time job and that they shouldn’t do anything else is contradicted by the fact that almost all members of the government are also MPs. If SKS can be prime minister while being an MP then back benchers should be able to do anything that doesn’t produce an obvious conflict of interest.
And how would you describe the quality of legislation we get or the level of scrutiny of government ministers and policies?
If its not working, and we keep doing the same thing, it ain't gonna get any better.
I’m not sure how those are linked. A lot of MPs do treat it as a full time job at the moment, but by that they seem to mean dealing with problems from their constituents rather than the legislative scrutiny you rightly point out is missing. There is also the problem of blindly voting on party lines of course. But that is not new; WS Gilbert had some choice comments on that in both “HMS Pinafore” and “Iolanthe”. I particularly remember the lines
“but then the prospect of a lot of dull MPs in close proximity All thinking for themselves is what No man can face with equinimity”
How would you improve it?
I think MPs should spend less time dealing with constituents’ problems. That really should be the job of a strengthened local government layer. I can’t think of another developed country where the national parliament reps have that kind of level of local activity. Other politicians meet that need: mayors, state governors and senators, regional assemblies and so on.
Perhaps if we got MPs focused more on national issues and bolstered local democracy and - importantly - tax raising powers, we’d see less NIMBYism creeping into national party politics.
Ireland's national representatives are more locally-oriented than Britain's. Fintan O'Toole has written about this extensively over many years in the Irish Times. Probably a couple of books too.
It's one of the reasons that there are so many Independent TDs in the Dáil - one in eight if you count the 3 former Independents who grouped together to form a party for Independents as Independents.
Absolutely stunning early autumn day in Devon. Mists first off, now bright blue skies.
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
Canada isn’t ALL bad
Yebbut...I get this from the house every day....
Just this week someone was praising the views of rural Essex. Yes, abroad has great natural views but so does everywhere. Not much is unique. There's no Niagra Falls in London or Paris, admittedly, but most countries offer fields and forests, and hills and coasts.
That’s bollocks, with all due respect
Italy is way more beautiful than Finland. France is much more beautiful than Poland
Europe as a whole is by far the most beautiful continent on earth - with its incredible variety of natural splendour and magnificent old cities, towns, villages
The voters are electing Nazis to deal with mass immigration and Olaf Scholz’s reaction is to import, en masse, a quarter of a million Kenyans
That’s not just pouring fuel on the fire, that’s buying the entire global reserves of Exxon and dropping it in the erupting volcano
This surging crisis could easily lead to the end of the EU. The underlying illogic of the EU, the crucial flaw, is that each country purports to have its own migration policy but, perforce, you must accept the migration policy of your EU neighbour, because Free Movement
Once those Kenyans get residency in Germany they are free to move anywhere in the EU, even though other EU countries might not want them. In the end that cannot be sustained
Still, the ‘EU are rayzist against non-white non-European’ lads will be feeling a bit shamefaced.
Bit of a difference between Germany and the EU as a whole on that score.
Absolutely stunning early autumn day in Devon. Mists first off, now bright blue skies.
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
Canada isn’t ALL bad
Yebbut...I get this from the house every day....
That is lovely. Indeed lovelier
I continue to have mixed feelings about the Okanagan. Sometimes it can look strikingly beautiful, but my god the tourist tat, the kitsch resort architecture, the strip malls and the overdevelopment
Yuk. North Americans really know how to fuck up a place, unless it is protected by National Park status
The wine is excellent. I was talking to a winemaker today and I told her I presumed it was global warming that made wine growing ever easier in this northerly latitude. She scoffed and said the first wine was made in 1860 - a Catholic priest needing communion wine for his settler congregation
They just needed to apply science. The terroir is amazingly fertile with all kinds of slopes and elevations and soils (volcanic, sandy, old lakebed)
They can make almost any wine they want
But is it beautiful? Not really. Not for a European. Especially a European who has just come from ravishingly pretty Montenegro. Or indeed south Devon
With the possible exception of some bits of coastal California or New England, I’d say North America is beautiful only when it’s empty. The deserts, the more national parky mountains, the Canadian lakes and forests. They just don’t do pretty villages, that’s the problem.
Quite so. Some of the ribbon development around here seems WILFULLY ugly. Not just accidentally tatty, but consciously striving to make the view worse. Garish colours and cheap materials and a total refusal to consider context
The comparison with the sublime empty beauty of Manning Park that I visited en route - just pine forests and whispering lakes - is stark
Weirdly, they can do beautiful cities that are entirely American. New York. Chicago
There are beautiful small towns in the US. But most were developed before the automobile.
The car, of course, is why the majority of development there is so hideous. It's not a mystery.
Yep. The car
Today I watched some people having a croissant in a European style pavement cafe in Osoyoos
Only problem, it was right next to a four lane urban motorway. Like pretending you’re in cobbled Covent Garden right by the M4
It was poignant and a little sad, from my Eurocentric perspective
A number of significant questions will be answered, at least in part, by the Conservative Party’s latest leadership contest. Chief among them is this: do the Tories wish to be the party of weird?
At present, the signs are not altogether encouraging. Robert Jenrick, still largely unknown as far as the general public is concerned but at present topping the ballot among his peers in the House of Commons, has embraced the weird.
If Jenrick were the only significant Tory to do so this might be of little concern but he is not. For, like Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, Jenrick has cheerfully endorsed Donald Trump’s campaign for the presidency of the United States. Perhaps he thinks this will help him with the pet owners’ vote but, regardless of any other considerations, Jenrick’s enthusiasm for Trump is a grim indication of how the wind is blowing in Tory circles.
One of the big questions for British politics is whether the next leader of the Conservative Party will succeed in reuniting the right of centre vote by convincing Tory voters to believe the things that Reform voters believe in.
Reform is anti-immigration and got 4,117,221 votes. The Conservatives are pro-growth and allow/encourage large-scale migration to fuel it, and got 6,827,311. If the next leader of the Conservatives does culture war and ignores migration, then Meeks will be right: they will fall further
Not if they can do what Trump has achieved, and spread the ideas of the radical fringe to the party mainstream.
Why do so many people on here assume that the opinions held by the voters are fixed?
The consequential politicians are those who are able to change minds. It's not easy, but it does happen, and I think this is one of those moments when it might, with what would be huge consequences for the future of British politics.
There will be a huge struggle to stop Trumpist politics from going mainstream in Britain - unless people are complacent about the possibility and so just let it happen.
On topic, the first Party Conference after a General Election is or can be a non event. For the victors, it becomes a celebration, for the losers, a wake.
The LD Conference kicks off in Brighton today - it's good to see much more outside interest now the party has 72 MPs and is clear third largest in terms of seats. Yet the Party faces some tough questions and challenges and needs to set out the next stage of the journey. As is so often the case, its fate is not in its own hands - yesterday's More In Common suggests the Labour fragmentation is going to the LDs, Greens and Reform rather than the Conservatives as you might expect.
The LDs will, I suspect, focus on the next 50 targets and 38 of them are Conservative-held but of Reform's next 50 targets, 23 are also Conservative held so the potential pincer movement on the Tories is evident but how do the Conservatives simultaenously recapture votes lost to both the LDs and Reform as well as those who stayed at home in July?
As an aside, of the first 150 Conservative targets, only 27 are LD seats
In 2019, the Conservatives won 12,710,845 votes in England (47.2%) - in July they won 6,279.411 (25.9%). Basically, nearly 6.5 million people who voted Conservative in 2019 didn't in July.
Absolutely stunning early autumn day in Devon. Mists first off, now bright blue skies.
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
Canada isn’t ALL bad
Yebbut...I get this from the house every day....
That is lovely. Indeed lovelier
I continue to have mixed feelings about the Okanagan. Sometimes it can look strikingly beautiful, but my god the tourist tat, the kitsch resort architecture, the strip malls and the overdevelopment
Yuk. North Americans really know how to fuck up a place, unless it is protected by National Park status
The wine is excellent. I was talking to a winemaker today and I told her I presumed it was global warming that made wine growing ever easier in this northerly latitude. She scoffed and said the first wine was made in 1860 - a Catholic priest needing communion wine for his settler congregation
They just needed to apply science. The terroir is amazingly fertile with all kinds of slopes and elevations and soils (volcanic, sandy, old lakebed)
They can make almost any wine they want
But is it beautiful? Not really. Not for a European. Especially a European who has just come from ravishingly pretty Montenegro. Or indeed south Devon
One of my favourite places in the world, Delphi, is also a mass of hotels, cafes, ice cream shops, souvenir shops etc, but that felt entirely appropriate because if you had visited two and a half millennia ago to consult the oracle it would have been just the same.
Absolutely stunning early autumn day in Devon. Mists first off, now bright blue skies.
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
Canada isn’t ALL bad
Yebbut...I get this from the house every day....
That is lovely. Indeed lovelier
I continue to have mixed feelings about the Okanagan. Sometimes it can look strikingly beautiful, but my god the tourist tat, the kitsch resort architecture, the strip malls and the overdevelopment
Yuk. North Americans really know how to fuck up a place, unless it is protected by National Park status
The wine is excellent. I was talking to a winemaker today and I told her I presumed it was global warming that made wine growing ever easier in this northerly latitude. She scoffed and said the first wine was made in 1860 - a Catholic priest needing communion wine for his settler congregation
They just needed to apply science. The terroir is amazingly fertile with all kinds of slopes and elevations and soils (volcanic, sandy, old lakebed)
They can make almost any wine they want
But is it beautiful? Not really. Not for a European. Especially a European who has just come from ravishingly pretty Montenegro. Or indeed south Devon
One of my favourite places in the world, Delphi, is also a mass of hotels, cafes, ice cream shops, souvenir shops etc, but that felt entirely appropriate because if you had visited two and a half millennia ago to consult the oracle it would have been just the same.
Some years ago I was in Bologona. A mobile phone shop was in a building that had a small plaque, explaining that it had been built in the 1318 (or something similar). Someone remarked that was a shame - I thought that the chap who built the building, with a shop at the bottom, would have been rather happy that it was still useful for the original purpose, nearly 700 years later
The voters are electing Nazis to deal with mass immigration and Olaf Scholz’s reaction is to import, en masse, a quarter of a million Kenyans
That’s not just pouring fuel on the fire, that’s buying the entire global reserves of Exxon and dropping it in the erupting volcano
This surging crisis could easily lead to the end of the EU. The underlying illogic of the EU, the crucial flaw, is that each country purports to have its own migration policy but, perforce, you must accept the migration policy of your EU neighbour, because Free Movement
Once those Kenyans get residency in Germany they are free to move anywhere in the EU, even though other EU countries might not want them. In the end that cannot be sustained
Still, the ‘EU are rayzist against non-white non-European’ lads will be feeling a bit shamefaced.
Bit of a difference between Germany and the EU as a whole on that score.
You mean countries can develop their own immigration policies within the EU? Heavens to Betsy!
Just had my new MP knock on my door, which was nice
Mine posted prolifically about the constituency on social media prior to the election. Posted very little about it since.
Our ex-MP, Marcus "Billy the" Fysh is still posting on his socials about how brilliant brexit is. The stupid c--t. He doesn't seem to realise he's not an MP any more. Maybe his Mrs never told him he lost.
Mrs DA has met the new LibDem, said he was "nice" and that I would like him because he's "interested in chainsaws". No, me neither.
Absolutely stunning early autumn day in Devon. Mists first off, now bright blue skies.
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
Canada isn’t ALL bad
Yebbut...I get this from the house every day....
That is lovely. Indeed lovelier
I continue to have mixed feelings about the Okanagan. Sometimes it can look strikingly beautiful, but my god the tourist tat, the kitsch resort architecture, the strip malls and the overdevelopment
Yuk. North Americans really know how to fuck up a place, unless it is protected by National Park status
The wine is excellent. I was talking to a winemaker today and I told her I presumed it was global warming that made wine growing ever easier in this northerly latitude. She scoffed and said the first wine was made in 1860 - a Catholic priest needing communion wine for his settler congregation
They just needed to apply science. The terroir is amazingly fertile with all kinds of slopes and elevations and soils (volcanic, sandy, old lakebed)
They can make almost any wine they want
But is it beautiful? Not really. Not for a European. Especially a European who has just come from ravishingly pretty Montenegro. Or indeed south Devon
One of my favourite places in the world, Delphi, is also a mass of hotels, cafes, ice cream shops, souvenir shops etc, but that felt entirely appropriate because if you had visited two and a half millennia ago to consult the oracle it would have been just the same.
Greek tat is helped by endless Greek sun. When the sun goes away it looks almost as dreadful as anywhere
Cf Los Angeles. Essentially an ugly city but that is disguised by Socal sun
Absolutely stunning early autumn day in Devon. Mists first off, now bright blue skies.
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
Canada isn’t ALL bad
Yebbut...I get this from the house every day....
That is lovely. Indeed lovelier
I continue to have mixed feelings about the Okanagan. Sometimes it can look strikingly beautiful, but my god the tourist tat, the kitsch resort architecture, the strip malls and the overdevelopment
Yuk. North Americans really know how to fuck up a place, unless it is protected by National Park status
The wine is excellent. I was talking to a winemaker today and I told her I presumed it was global warming that made wine growing ever easier in this northerly latitude. She scoffed and said the first wine was made in 1860 - a Catholic priest needing communion wine for his settler congregation
They just needed to apply science. The terroir is amazingly fertile with all kinds of slopes and elevations and soils (volcanic, sandy, old lakebed)
They can make almost any wine they want
But is it beautiful? Not really. Not for a European. Especially a European who has just come from ravishingly pretty Montenegro. Or indeed south Devon
With the possible exception of some bits of coastal California or New England, I’d say North America is beautiful only when it’s empty. The deserts, the more national parky mountains, the Canadian lakes and forests. They just don’t do pretty villages, that’s the problem.
Quite so. Some of the ribbon development around here seems WILFULLY ugly. Not just accidentally tatty, but consciously striving to make the view worse. Garish colours and cheap materials and a total refusal to consider context
The comparison with the sublime empty beauty of Manning Park that I visited en route - just pine forests and whispering lakes - is stark
Weirdly, they can do beautiful cities that are entirely American. New York. Chicago
There are beautiful small towns in the US. But most were developed before the automobile.
The car, of course, is why the majority of development there is so hideous. It's not a mystery.
Yep. The car
Today I watched some people having a croissant in a European style pavement cafe in Osoyoos
Only problem, it was right next to a four lane urban motorway. Like pretending you’re in cobbled Covent Garden right by the M4
It was poignant and a little sad, from my Eurocentric perspective
There’s something of a new urbanist thing going on in the US. Here and there. They know how to build beautiful towns and cities; it’s just that a lot of stuff militates against that.
I hadn’t realised that JENRICK had endorsed Trump. Dear me, what an absolute tool.
Indeed. And should rule him out of high office in this country for the rest of his career.
He is siding with this country's enemies.
The Conservative base and voter bloc is anti-Trump at the moment, unlike Reform. It’s also strongly pro-Ukraine and hawkish on Russia. But a Trump-positive Jenrick as leader, and especially a new Trump presidency, could well shift that particular Overton side-window. I really don’t want to see the party dragged into MAGA land. It’ll have us pining for the good old days of honourable, honest leaders like Boris Johnson.
It is quite possible to be a Ukrainian Ultra and want to fuck Trump's 'Neck Pussy' as bro living in the Ballardesque nightmare of the Trucial States vividly demonstrates on the reg.
I haven't a clue what any of that means but I am nonetheless convinced it deserves a "like". Absurd you may believe, but not as absurd as the man who expects to be our next Prime Minister endorsing Trump.
Jenrick's rise to the top of the greasy pole is almost entirely due to @Anabobazina posting JENRICK! every hour each evening on PB.
I CANNOT BELIEVE I MISSED THE CASH THREAD YESTERDAY
Working too hard. But yes @TheScreamingEagles is right - cash is absolutely pointless. The arguments of the very few PBers who contested his view were incredibly weak.
A statement that could only be made by someone who has never done any work in poorer communities where families use cash as a means of controlling their budgets.
And that is before you even start on the question of the digital divide.
I have no idea if TSE is right or wrong but the whole of the previous thread was a classically middle class argument with a wonderful lack of awareness.
Nope. That is simply patronising. If there is a digital divide then we should address it through policy, not by patronising people and asking them to use a stupid, obsolete and pointless system of barter. But these arguments have been done to death now, and indeed many PBers made them very well on the earlier thread.
Just had my new MP knock on my door, which was nice
Mine posted prolifically about the constituency on social media prior to the election. Posted very little about it since.
Our ex-MP, Marcus "Billy the" Fysh is still posting on his socials about how brilliant brexit is. The stupid c--t. He doesn't seem to realise he's not an MP any more. Maybe his Mrs never told him he lost.
Mrs DA has met the new LibDem, said he was "nice" and that I would like him because he's "interested in chainsaws". No, me neither.
Perhaps he thinks the good denizens of Yeovil will welcome him back with open arms in 2029 after 5 years of labour so he’s setting the scene 🤔
Absolutely stunning early autumn day in Devon. Mists first off, now bright blue skies.
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
Canada isn’t ALL bad
Yebbut...I get this from the house every day....
That is lovely. Indeed lovelier
I continue to have mixed feelings about the Okanagan. Sometimes it can look strikingly beautiful, but my god the tourist tat, the kitsch resort architecture, the strip malls and the overdevelopment
Yuk. North Americans really know how to fuck up a place, unless it is protected by National Park status
The wine is excellent. I was talking to a winemaker today and I told her I presumed it was global warming that made wine growing ever easier in this northerly latitude. She scoffed and said the first wine was made in 1860 - a Catholic priest needing communion wine for his settler congregation
They just needed to apply science. The terroir is amazingly fertile with all kinds of slopes and elevations and soils (volcanic, sandy, old lakebed)
They can make almost any wine they want
But is it beautiful? Not really. Not for a European. Especially a European who has just come from ravishingly pretty Montenegro. Or indeed south Devon
With the possible exception of some bits of coastal California or New England, I’d say North America is beautiful only when it’s empty. The deserts, the more national parky mountains, the Canadian lakes and forests. They just don’t do pretty villages, that’s the problem.
Quite so. Some of the ribbon development around here seems WILFULLY ugly. Not just accidentally tatty, but consciously striving to make the view worse. Garish colours and cheap materials and a total refusal to consider context
The comparison with the sublime empty beauty of Manning Park that I visited en route - just pine forests and whispering lakes - is stark
Weirdly, they can do beautiful cities that are entirely American. New York. Chicago
There are beautiful small towns in the US. But most were developed before the automobile.
The car, of course, is why the majority of development there is so hideous. It's not a mystery.
Yep. The car
Today I watched some people having a croissant in a European style pavement cafe in Osoyoos
Only problem, it was right next to a four lane urban motorway. Like pretending you’re in cobbled Covent Garden right by the M4
It was poignant and a little sad, from my Eurocentric perspective
There’s something of a new urbanist thing going on in the US. Here and there. They know how to build beautiful towns and cities; it’s just that a lot of stuff militates against that.
We all know how to build beautiful cities. You just gotta beat the architects, the planners, the developers, the car drivers, and The Man
A number of significant questions will be answered, at least in part, by the Conservative Party’s latest leadership contest. Chief among them is this: do the Tories wish to be the party of weird?
At present, the signs are not altogether encouraging. Robert Jenrick, still largely unknown as far as the general public is concerned but at present topping the ballot among his peers in the House of Commons, has embraced the weird.
If Jenrick were the only significant Tory to do so this might be of little concern but he is not. For, like Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, Jenrick has cheerfully endorsed Donald Trump’s campaign for the presidency of the United States. Perhaps he thinks this will help him with the pet owners’ vote but, regardless of any other considerations, Jenrick’s enthusiasm for Trump is a grim indication of how the wind is blowing in Tory circles.
What, oh what, do these people see in Donald Trump? It can't possibly be the man himself or anything he says or does. Something else must be in play.
For some at least they think he’s better than the alternative. They are worried about what they see as an erosion of their values, the pace of immigration, the idea that shoplifting has apparently been all but decriminalised in some places, and so on. I don’t know how valid these ideas are due to the highly partisan nature of news sources in the states, but this is what people who subscribe to Fox and its ilk will see. Think back to the 2019 election: very few people were voting for Boris or Jeremy; most who seemed to were actually voting against the other one.
One of the hardest but most important things in politics is to make sure you understand the valid reasons someone may have to oppose your point of view and not to just assume they are evil (if right wing) or deluded (if left).
Today's big issue - Asda workers up in arms at the shitness of the music they are forced to listen to while they work.
I'm with them here. I like music as much as the next man - but I like the music which is to my taste. I'd rather have no music than music I don't like. I wouldn't expect other shoppers to be gleeful about having my playlists full of The Fall and Half Man Half Biscuit, and I don't understand the arrogance of people who think we all want to listen to their taste in terrible MOR in supermarkets.
Other way round. Asda used to play proper songs but changed to unlicensed rubbish (similar to what we used to call muzak) and that is what has upset the workforce.
Yes, but the point is no music at all is bettet than music not to your taste. And any music will be not to the taste of at least 70% of people. Granted unlicensed music is not to thr taste of slightly more people.
On topic, the first Party Conference after a General Election is or can be a non event. For the victors, it becomes a celebration, for the losers, a wake.
The LD Conference kicks off in Brighton today - it's good to see much more outside interest now the party has 72 MPs and is clear third largest in terms of seats. Yet the Party faces some tough questions and challenges and needs to set out the next stage of the journey. As is so often the case, its fate is not in its own hands - yesterday's More In Common suggests the Labour fragmentation is going to the LDs, Greens and Reform rather than the Conservatives as you might expect.
The LDs will, I suspect, focus on the next 50 targets and 38 of them are Conservative-held but of Reform's next 50 targets, 23 are also Conservative held so the potential pincer movement on the Tories is evident but how do the Conservatives simultaenously recapture votes lost to both the LDs and Reform as well as those who stayed at home in July?
As an aside, of the first 150 Conservative targets, only 27 are LD seats
In 2019, the Conservatives won 12,710,845 votes in England (47.2%) - in July they won 6,279.411 (25.9%). Basically, nearly 6.5 million people who voted Conservative in 2019 didn't in July.
Absolutely stunning early autumn day in Devon. Mists first off, now bright blue skies.
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
Canada isn’t ALL bad
Yebbut...I get this from the house every day....
Just this week someone was praising the views of rural Essex. Yes, abroad has great natural views but so does everywhere. Not much is unique. There's no Niagra Falls in London or Paris, admittedly, but most countries offer fields and forests, and hills and coasts.
That’s bollocks, with all due respect
Italy is way more beautiful than Finland. France is much more beautiful than Poland
Europe as a whole is by far the most beautiful continent on earth - with its incredible variety of natural splendour and magnificent old cities, towns, villages
Just had my new MP knock on my door, which was nice
Mine posted prolifically about the constituency on social media prior to the election. Posted very little about it since.
Our ex-MP, Marcus "Billy the" Fysh is still posting on his socials about how brilliant brexit is. The stupid c--t. He doesn't seem to realise he's not an MP any more. Maybe his Mrs never told him he lost.
Mrs DA has met the new LibDem, said he was "nice" and that I would like him because he's "interested in chainsaws". No, me neither.
Perhaps he thinks the good denizens of Yeovil will welcome him back with open arms in 2029 after 5 years of labour so he’s setting the scene 🤔
I am not entirely convinced the Conservatives in Lib Dem seats will be the net beneficiaries should Labour fail. Recent polling suggests the Conservatives remain where they were two months ago. The Lib Dems and whatever the latest Farage vehicle is called, on the other hand, are bangin'. Squeezing the slimeball Jenrick into the LOTO's boots will not improve their opportunities.
I hadn’t realised that JENRICK had endorsed Trump. Dear me, what an absolute tool.
Indeed. And should rule him out of high office in this country for the rest of his career.
He is siding with this country's enemies.
The Conservative base and voter bloc is anti-Trump at the moment, unlike Reform. It’s also strongly pro-Ukraine and hawkish on Russia. But a Trump-positive Jenrick as leader, and especially a new Trump presidency, could well shift that particular Overton side-window. I really don’t want to see the party dragged into MAGA land. It’ll have us pining for the good old days of honourable, honest leaders like Boris Johnson.
It is quite possible to be a Ukrainian Ultra and want to fuck Trump's 'Neck Pussy' as bro living in the Ballardesque nightmare of the Trucial States vividly demonstrates on the reg.
I haven't a clue what any of that means but I am nonetheless convinced it deserves a "like". Absurd you may believe, but not as absurd as the man who expects to be our next Prime Minister endorsing Trump.
@viewcode will put a few florins in his lecky meter and be along to decode presently.
Absolutely stunning early autumn day in Devon. Mists first off, now bright blue skies.
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
Canada isn’t ALL bad
Yebbut...I get this from the house every day....
That is lovely. Indeed lovelier
I continue to have mixed feelings about the Okanagan. Sometimes it can look strikingly beautiful, but my god the tourist tat, the kitsch resort architecture, the strip malls and the overdevelopment
Yuk. North Americans really know how to fuck up a place, unless it is protected by National Park status
The wine is excellent. I was talking to a winemaker today and I told her I presumed it was global warming that made wine growing ever easier in this northerly latitude. She scoffed and said the first wine was made in 1860 - a Catholic priest needing communion wine for his settler congregation
They just needed to apply science. The terroir is amazingly fertile with all kinds of slopes and elevations and soils (volcanic, sandy, old lakebed)
They can make almost any wine they want
But is it beautiful? Not really. Not for a European. Especially a European who has just come from ravishingly pretty Montenegro. Or indeed south Devon
One of my favourite places in the world, Delphi, is also a mass of hotels, cafes, ice cream shops, souvenir shops etc, but that felt entirely appropriate because if you had visited two and a half millennia ago to consult the oracle it would have been just the same.
Greek tat is helped by endless Greek sun. When the sun goes away it looks almost as dreadful as anywhere
Cf Los Angeles. Essentially an ugly city but that is disguised by Socal sun
Delphi is also perched half-way up a mountain and has what may be the most impressive collection of standing ancient Greek ruins in the whole country. If you haven't been I would whole-heartedly recommend it.
Just had my new MP knock on my door, which was nice
Mine posted prolifically about the constituency on social media prior to the election. Posted very little about it since.
Our ex-MP, Marcus "Billy the" Fysh is still posting on his socials about how brilliant brexit is. The stupid c--t. He doesn't seem to realise he's not an MP any more. Maybe his Mrs never told him he lost.
Mrs DA has met the new LibDem, said he was "nice" and that I would like him because he's "interested in chainsaws". No, me neither.
Perhaps he thinks the good denizens of Yeovil will welcome him back with open arms in 2029 after 5 years of labour so he’s setting the scene 🤔
I am not entirely convinced the Conservatives in Lib Dem seats will be the net beneficiaries should Labour fail. Recent polling suggests the Conservatives remain where they were two months ago. The Lib Dems and whatever the latest Farage vehicle is called, on the other hand, are bangin'. Squeezing the slimeball Jenrick into the LOTO's boots will not improve their opportunities.
I think if displaced Tory MPs just think all they need to do is fluff the seat they lost online and turn up in 2029 and will win they are sorely mistaken.
How well does an earlier version of that glibness look now:
The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back – A portion of a statement that Obama made in an October 2012 debate. In the debate, Obama was deriding an earlier Romney statement in the campaign that Russia is "without question, our No. 1 geopolitical foe."
How is that in any way relevant to Vance’s revolting bigotry, other than it using the same stock phrase?
If you want every comment to be precisely relevant to those proceeding then you're on the wrong site.
But if you want some relevance I would suggest:
1) The particulars of what Haitian immigrants get up to matter less than highlighting that they are there. Haiti is a failed state, Haitians are failed state people, who wants failed state people when you have enough problems of your own ? The Dems poll badly on immigration so the more the focus is on immigration then the more it benefits Trump.
2) Other people might not agree with hostile references to the 1980s. Remember Labour's 'Fire up the Quattro' fiasco:
The Milibands' attempt to portray Tory leader as a throwback to the Eighties backfires spectacularly
“failed state people”? What bullshit is this? Are you blaming the general population of Haiti for its problems, as if they are somehow inferior people?
When a state fails, I’d rather live in a world where the neighbouring countries help the people of the failed state.
How well does an earlier version of that glibness look now:
The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back – A portion of a statement that Obama made in an October 2012 debate. In the debate, Obama was deriding an earlier Romney statement in the campaign that Russia is "without question, our No. 1 geopolitical foe."
How is that in any way relevant to Vance’s revolting bigotry, other than it using the same stock phrase?
If you want every comment to be precisely relevant to those proceeding then you're on the wrong site.
But if you want some relevance I would suggest:
1) The particulars of what Haitian immigrants get up to matter less than highlighting that they are there. Haiti is a failed state, Haitians are failed state people, who wants failed state people when you have enough problems of your own ? The Dems poll badly on immigration so the more the focus is on immigration then the more it benefits Trump.
2) Other people might not agree with hostile references to the 1980s. Remember Labour's 'Fire up the Quattro' fiasco:
The Milibands' attempt to portray Tory leader as a throwback to the Eighties backfires spectacularly
“failed state people”? What bullshit is this? Are you blaming the general population of Haiti for its problems, as if they are somehow inferior people?
When a state fails, I’d rather live in a world where the neighbouring countries help the people of the failed state.
The White House press secretary is Haitian.
US Haitians appear to be more or less the opposite of the way shitheads like Vance portray them.
Hello from the LD conference fringe! About to start: how the LDs can provide a positive alternative to Labour. Not being quite as miserly as Keith Donkey would be a good start. He’s starting to remind me of Harry Seacombe in Oliver.
How well does an earlier version of that glibness look now:
The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back – A portion of a statement that Obama made in an October 2012 debate. In the debate, Obama was deriding an earlier Romney statement in the campaign that Russia is "without question, our No. 1 geopolitical foe."
How is that in any way relevant to Vance’s revolting bigotry, other than it using the same stock phrase?
If you want every comment to be precisely relevant to those proceeding then you're on the wrong site.
But if you want some relevance I would suggest:
1) The particulars of what Haitian immigrants get up to matter less than highlighting that they are there. Haiti is a failed state, Haitians are failed state people, who wants failed state people when you have enough problems of your own ? The Dems poll badly on immigration so the more the focus is on immigration then the more it benefits Trump.
2) Other people might not agree with hostile references to the 1980s. Remember Labour's 'Fire up the Quattro' fiasco:
The Milibands' attempt to portray Tory leader as a throwback to the Eighties backfires spectacularly
“failed state people”? What bullshit is this? Are you blaming the general population of Haiti for its problems, as if they are somehow inferior people?
When a state fails, I’d rather live in a world where the neighbouring countries help the people of the failed state.
Yes it was a particularly unpleasant and ugly post by a PB Trump Arse Licker.
Hello from the LD conference fringe! About to start: how the LDs can provide a positive alternative to Labour. Not being quite as miserly as Keith Donkey would be a good start. He’s starting to remind me of Harry Seacombe in Oliver.
I used to enjoy Liberal Assemblies and LD Conferences in my politically active days. Have fun.
I CANNOT BELIEVE I MISSED THE CASH THREAD YESTERDAY
Working too hard. But yes @TheScreamingEagles is right - cash is absolutely pointless. The arguments of the very few PBers who contested his view were incredibly weak.
C.A.S.H.
Bad news for cash fans at LD Conference - all of the food outlets in the Brighton Centre are card only. Though I did have a comedy moment buying a copy of the Liberator songbook for Monday night’s Glee Club and got an “ooh, paying with your watch?” response which felt. Bit 1995…
No sooner has Parliament sat down after a long summer break and it all stops again for a month for Conference season. Why?
It really gives the impression of a political system that exists for itself, not the people.
I think Cammo reduced the summer recess so it no longer included the September fortnight. Not only did this prevent MPs having cheap holidays, it caused a ludicrous system whereby they returned for a fortnight then rose again. They’d be better finding the two weeks elsewhere in the year.
Or they could move the dates of the party conference season?
Or could they? Presumably the parties need to fit in between the summer season and panto, not least for hotel accommodation.
I CANNOT BELIEVE I MISSED THE CASH THREAD YESTERDAY
Working too hard. But yes @TheScreamingEagles is right - cash is absolutely pointless. The arguments of the very few PBers who contested his view were incredibly weak.
C.A.S.H.
Bad news for cash fans at LD Conference - all of the food outlets in the Brighton Centre are card only. Though I did have a comedy moment buying a copy of the Liberator songbook for Monday night’s Glee Club and got an “ooh, paying with your watch?” response which felt. Bit 1995…
I had one of those recently. It’s hard to know what to say when you get one of those. I just smiled sweetly.
Does anyone know what happens if in the next round of the Tory leadership contest the two bottom candidates get the same number of votes? Would they both be eliminated at the same time for instance.
Does anyone know what happens if in the next round of the Tory leadership contest the two bottom candidates get the same number of votes? Would they both be eliminated at the same time for instance.
Some admirable working-showing from More In Common;
Starting as we mean to go on: Here's how our adjustments are changing VI in this poll.
As a reminder, we reallocate 'don't knows' using a follow-up question and statistical model, and we are fairly strict about who counts as a likely voter.
Does anyone know what happens if in the next round of the Tory leadership contest the two bottom candidates get the same number of votes? Would they both be eliminated at the same time for instance.
Re-run I think
Interesting. I assume it the re-run also ends in a tie for bottom place they would be both eliminated that time.
Does anyone know what happens if in the next round of the Tory leadership contest the two bottom candidates get the same number of votes? Would they both be eliminated at the same time for instance.
Re-run I think
If their total is less than the second-placed candidate’s votes, then you should eliminate both at once. But that seems unlikely to occur.
Does anyone know what happens if in the next round of the Tory leadership contest the two bottom candidates get the same number of votes? Would they both be eliminated at the same time for instance.
Re-run I think
Interesting. I assume it the re-run also ends in a tie for bottom place they would be both eliminated that time.
I remember reading that they keep re-running it until they get a difference- but can’t find the source
Hello from the LD conference fringe! About to start: how the LDs can provide a positive alternative to Labour. Not being quite as miserly as Keith Donkey would be a good start. He’s starting to remind me of Harry Seacombe in Oliver.
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government!
How well does an earlier version of that glibness look now:
The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back – A portion of a statement that Obama made in an October 2012 debate. In the debate, Obama was deriding an earlier Romney statement in the campaign that Russia is "without question, our No. 1 geopolitical foe."
How is that in any way relevant to Vance’s revolting bigotry, other than it using the same stock phrase?
If you want every comment to be precisely relevant to those proceeding then you're on the wrong site.
But if you want some relevance I would suggest:
1) The particulars of what Haitian immigrants get up to matter less than highlighting that they are there. Haiti is a failed state, Haitians are failed state people, who wants failed state people when you have enough problems of your own ? The Dems poll badly on immigration so the more the focus is on immigration then the more it benefits Trump.
2) Other people might not agree with hostile references to the 1980s. Remember Labour's 'Fire up the Quattro' fiasco:
The Milibands' attempt to portray Tory leader as a throwback to the Eighties backfires spectacularly
“failed state people”? What bullshit is this? Are you blaming the general population of Haiti for its problems, as if they are somehow inferior people?
When a state fails, I’d rather live in a world where the neighbouring countries help the people of the failed state.
Are you saying that the people of Haiti have had no influence on the state of their country ?
If so you are denying them any ability to affect their own lives and the outside world.
You also seem to be in denial that differing immigrant groups have varying levels of success in their new countries. With those from failed states tending towards the lower end of success.
But its irrelevant what you and I think, safe in our affluence across the Atlantic.
Instead consider what an American voter might think - perhaps those struggling themselves with price rises or housing costs or health problems or student debt. Are they going to welcome thousands of people from a failed state to their own town ? Or would they want their own problems given priority ?
That is the voting demographic that the GOP is aiming for when they discuss immigration.
The voters are electing Nazis to deal with mass immigration and Olaf Scholz’s reaction is to import, en masse, a quarter of a million Kenyans
That’s not just pouring fuel on the fire, that’s buying the entire global reserves of Exxon and dropping it in the erupting volcano
This surging crisis could easily lead to the end of the EU. The underlying illogic of the EU, the crucial flaw, is that each country purports to have its own migration policy but, perforce, you must accept the migration policy of your EU neighbour, because Free Movement
Once those Kenyans get residency in Germany they are free to move anywhere in the EU, even though other EU countries might not want them. In the end that cannot be sustained
On the plus side the price of dinghies will be going up....
Comments
The voters are electing Nazis to deal with mass immigration and Olaf Scholz’s reaction is to import, en masse, a quarter of a million Kenyans
That’s not just pouring fuel on the fire, that’s buying the entire global reserves of Exxon and dropping it in the erupting volcano
This surging crisis could easily lead to the end of the EU. The underlying illogic of the EU, the crucial flaw, is that each country purports to have its own migration policy but, perforce, you must accept the migration policy of your EU neighbour, because Free Movement
Once those Kenyans get residency in Germany they are free to move anywhere in the EU, even though other EU countries might not want them. In the end that cannot be sustained
The staff are provided with ear defenders...
They would have got (a bit) more credit had they championed the policy from when it was inevitable. I could be wrong but think the LDs came up with it first, Labour copied about a month later, and Tories derided it for another couple of months before the inevitable u-turn.
Might even get to see some moths.
*cavest: that is the BBC. Expect a new Ice Age....
Quite a lot of PBers criticised him during his presidency for that.
Are you saying Vance's bigotry is justified ?
https://presseportal.zdf.de/pressemitteilung/zdf-politbarometer-september-i-2024
Translation:
In the assessment of politicians according to likeability and performance (“What do you think of?”), Defense Minister Boris Pistorius remains unchallenged in first place. He is rated on a scale of +5 to -5 with an average score of 1.8 (August: 1.7). Markus Söder is a distant second with 0.2 (0.0). After that, the negative range begins: Friedrich Merz with minus 0.1 (minus 0.2), Karl Lauterbach with minus 0.8 (minus 0.5), Robert Habeck with minus 0.8 (minus 0.4), Annalena Baerbock with her personal negative record of minus 0.9 (minus 0.5), Olaf Scholz, also with minus 0.9 (minus 0.7), Christian Lindner with minus 1.1 (minus 0.9) and Sahra Wagenknecht with minus 1.1 (minus 1.1). Alice Weidel remains clearly in negative territory with minus 2.7 (minus 2.7).
It would surely make sense for the SPD to have Pistorius as Chancellor-candidate at the next election rather than the useless Scholz.
And that is before you even start on the question of the digital divide.
I have no idea if TSE is right or wrong but the whole of the previous thread was a classically middle class argument with a wonderful lack of awareness.
The government did balance it quite well between giving some help to everyone, extra help to the most vulnerable and still encouraging people to be more energy efficient.
The evil, but politically astute, thing to do would have been let the enormous bills land, then give people a pile of money.
(See also: the Y2K bug.)
I continue to have mixed feelings about the Okanagan. Sometimes it can look strikingly beautiful, but my god the tourist tat, the kitsch resort architecture, the strip malls and the overdevelopment
Yuk. North Americans really know how to fuck up a place, unless it is protected by National Park status
The wine is excellent. I was talking to a winemaker today and I told her I presumed it was global warming that made wine growing ever easier in this northerly latitude. She scoffed and said the first wine was made in 1860 - a Catholic priest needing communion wine for his settler congregation
They just needed to apply science. The terroir is amazingly fertile with all kinds of slopes and elevations and soils (volcanic, sandy, old lakebed)
They can make almost any wine they want
But is it beautiful? Not really. Not for a European. Especially a European who has just come from ravishingly pretty Montenegro. Or indeed south Devon
https://x.com/ItsDeanBlundell/status/1834648138293903654
They would need to be permanently resident in Germany for 5 years. Then they apply for an EU long term residency permit. Then they can move around and work/settle in other EU countries. But if they live outside Germany for more than 6 years after that they lose their long term residency permit and so will lose their right to stay in the EU.
I don't know why
Call some place Paradise
Kiss it Goodbye
Shabina Bano has quit the Labour Party and joined the Liberal Democrats after a two year dispute over claims of misogyny and bullying. In a damning resignation statement, she accused the city council’s ruling Labour leadership of failing to properly address her concerns, first raised soon after her election in 2022…
She added: “This is not an attack on any individual, but rather a reflection of the toxic dynamics at play within Birmingham Labour. My goal in politics has always been to empower people, fight for equality, and ensure every voice is heard. I am confident the Birmingham Liberal Democrats will allow me to continue this important work, free from the infighting that has plagued my time in Labour.”
Then came here saying things like "I CANNOT BELIEVE I MISSED THE CASH THREAD YESTERDAY" to provide an alibi. like Clark Kent saying "Superman was just here? Gee I always miss him"
The comparison with the sublime empty beauty of Manning Park that I visited en route - just pine forests and whispering lakes - is stark
Weirdly, they can do beautiful cities that are entirely American. New York. Chicago
‘Germany will not send Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine,’ said Scholz
‘We have made a clear decision about what we will and will not do. This decision will not change,’ he added.
How much longer do we have to put up with this chancellor?
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1834844119971058145
https://winstonchurchill.hillsdale.edu/winston-churchills-dream-1947/
Glorious start here in East London.
To irritate everyone even further, I'll offer my thoughts on today's big races at Doncaster and Leopardstown.
On Town Moor, I've backed YOU GOT TO ME to become the first filly to win the Leger since Simple Verse - ILLINOIS is the percentage call on form but I think he may be a bit one paced.
The better card is at Leopardstown. In the Matron, PORTA FORTUNA is the unoriginal choice - my each way play, ROGUE MILLENNIUM, was withdrawn this morning so I'm not playing in the race.
The Irish Champion is a superb race - the clash between ECONOMICS and AUGUSTE RODIN is one to savour, I've backed GHOSTWRITER each way as there are eight runners and they will pay three places. I got on at 7s earlier in the week.
The car, of course, is why the majority of development there is so hideous. It's not a mystery.
It's one of the reasons that there are so many Independent TDs in the Dáil - one in eight if you count the 3 former Independents who grouped together to form a party for Independents as Independents.
Italy is way more beautiful than Finland. France is much more beautiful than Poland
Europe as a whole is by far the most beautiful continent on earth - with its incredible variety of natural splendour and magnificent old cities, towns, villages
We're recapitalising largely foreign owned ventures, so they can get back to draining money from the UK.
Billpayers in England and Wales tricked into ‘stealth bailout’ of water companies
Campaign group challenges industry regulator over price rises for customers that will pay to upgrade infrastructure
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/sep/14/billpayers-in-england-and-wales-tricked-into-stealth-bailout-of-water-companies
Today I watched some people having a croissant in a European style pavement cafe in Osoyoos
Only problem, it was right next to a four lane urban motorway. Like pretending you’re in cobbled Covent Garden right by the M4
It was poignant and a little sad, from my Eurocentric perspective
Why do so many people on here assume that the opinions held by the voters are fixed?
The consequential politicians are those who are able to change minds. It's not easy, but it does happen, and I think this is one of those moments when it might, with what would be huge consequences for the future of British politics.
There will be a huge struggle to stop Trumpist politics from going mainstream in Britain - unless people are complacent about the possibility and so just let it happen.
The LD Conference kicks off in Brighton today - it's good to see much more outside interest now the party has 72 MPs and is clear third largest in terms of seats. Yet the Party faces some tough questions and challenges and needs to set out the next stage of the journey. As is so often the case, its fate is not in its own hands - yesterday's More In Common suggests the Labour fragmentation is going to the LDs, Greens and Reform rather than the Conservatives as you might expect.
The LDs will, I suspect, focus on the next 50 targets and 38 of them are Conservative-held but of Reform's next 50 targets, 23 are also Conservative held so the potential pincer movement on the Tories is evident but how do the Conservatives simultaenously recapture votes lost to both the LDs and Reform as well as those who stayed at home in July?
As an aside, of the first 150 Conservative targets, only 27 are LD seats
In 2019, the Conservatives won 12,710,845 votes in England (47.2%) - in July they won 6,279.411 (25.9%). Basically, nearly 6.5 million people who voted Conservative in 2019 didn't in July.
Where did all the Tories go?
Mrs DA has met the new LibDem, said he was "nice" and that I would like him because he's "interested in chainsaws". No, me neither.
Cf Los Angeles. Essentially an ugly city but that is disguised by Socal sun
They know how to build beautiful towns and cities; it’s just that a lot of stuff militates against that.
Jenrick's rise to the top of the greasy pole is almost entirely due to @Anabobazina posting JENRICK! every hour each evening on PB.
Think back to the 2019 election: very few people were voting for Boris or Jeremy; most who seemed to were actually voting against the other one.
One of the hardest but most important things in politics is to make sure you understand the valid reasons someone may have to oppose your point of view and not to just assume they are evil (if right wing) or deluded (if left).
Granted unlicensed music is not to thr taste of slightly more people.
https://x.com/TheKevinDalton/status/1834727297959837815?t=Wlt76xQlHtIYTlM-Z7zeQg&s=09
That is quite brutal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89-rsk1oTQA
When a state fails, I’d rather live in a world where the neighbouring countries help the people of the failed state.
US Haitians appear to be more or less the opposite of the way shitheads like Vance portray them.
If you run a typical 3 hour speech of his through a special tool which extracts the truthy bits you'll get, what, maybe 5 minutes?
Carol Vorderman
@carolvorders
😡
Scrapping winter fuel allowance for all but those on Pension Credit is wrong wrong wrong
They have to remember that millions of all ages loaned their vote to Labour to get rid of the corrupted Tory party
Now look after those voters
Starting as we mean to go on: Here's how our adjustments are changing VI in this poll.
As a reminder, we reallocate 'don't knows' using a follow-up question and statistical model, and we are fairly strict about who counts as a likely voter.
https://bsky.app/profile/edhodgsoned.bsky.social/post/3l3zib6ted62a
Junior says the average IQ in countries where migrants come from is much lower than ours so we shouldn’t let them in.
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1834619443776754059
If so you are denying them any ability to affect their own lives and the outside world.
You also seem to be in denial that differing immigrant groups have varying levels of success in their new countries. With those from failed states tending towards the lower end of success.
But its irrelevant what you and I think, safe in our affluence across the Atlantic.
Instead consider what an American voter might think - perhaps those struggling themselves with price rises or housing costs or health problems or student debt. Are they going to welcome thousands of people from a failed state to their own town ? Or would they want their own problems given priority ?
That is the voting demographic that the GOP is aiming for when they discuss immigration.
When did you join MAGA?