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As conference season begins – politicalbetting.com
As conference season begins – politicalbetting.com
Party conference season is upon us, but only one in five Britons are likely to be paying attentionA lot: 2%A fair amount: 18%Not much: 42%None at all: 36%https://t.co/tl9AJ2ehZl pic.twitter.com/lM3SxGW0jS
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We've been starved of decent horror movies since Hammer went belly up.
And the small group of people saying they pay attention to party conferences are just being polite.
At present, the signs are not altogether encouraging. Robert Jenrick, still largely unknown as far as the general public is concerned but at present topping the ballot among his peers in the House of Commons, has embraced the weird.
If Jenrick were the only significant Tory to do so this might be of little concern but he is not. For, like Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, Jenrick has cheerfully endorsed Donald Trump’s campaign for the presidency of the United States. Perhaps he thinks this will help him with the pet owners’ vote but, regardless of any other considerations, Jenrick’s enthusiasm for Trump is a grim indication of how the wind is blowing in Tory circles.
https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/tories-picking-trump-are-taking-wrong-path-zxn2f5q7v
I am surprised it is as high as 20%
Anyway, so, in important news:
Hit and giggle finals today.
All the finalists are from the South group, so have played each other in the competition before.
Surrey and Somerset in the first semi-final, their two matches both went with home advantage.
Sussex beat Gloucestershire both times in their group matches, although the one at Hove was tight and Gloucestershire could and should have won if they'd kept their heads.
Sussex only played Somerset once, losing at Taunton. Oddly, when at Hove Sussex lost to Surrey but absolutely thrashed them in the return fixture at the Oval.
Sussex, Somerset and Surrey are strong all-round sides having excellent seasons. Somerset beat Surrey earlier this week, so Surrey will be anxious to get their own back. None of them have any obvious weakness, although Sussex have dropped a few catches they shouldn't have.
Gloucestershire are capable on their day of beating absolutely anyone, having beaten Somerset handily in both matches they had, and played out a sensational tie with Surrey. Bowling is their stronger suit but Hammond is one of the best white ball batsmen in England (and would probably do a much better job for England than Will Jacks). If he gets going they could do well. But they are mercurial and prone to sudden collapses.
I wouldn't like to pick a favourite, although I suppose the sheer quality of Surrey justifies the 10/11 joint favourites with defending champions Somerset. They also have the advantage of playing first giving them a little more time to recover.
The value is probably in one of Sussex or Gloucestershire given that there's no one side that's been clearly dominant. Gloucestershire will be considered the outsiders and have I think the narrowest path to victory. But this could be an excellent day of cricket.
None.
A lot are in (slow) process. It works on suspension, investigation, hearing, action ... eventually (very eventually).
One of Trump's problems is that he has been using out of state lawyers eg in New York on a temporary basis who know little about the strange NY system, then they get something wrong (such as forgetting to ask for a jury trial or complaining on a non-valid basis), and he throws another tantrum.
I'm not sure how the Federal system regulates lawyer accreditation.
G piece about John Eastman:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/27/former-trump-lawyer-john-eastman-lose-law-license
Even non-racing fans will know of the race from such aphorisms as Winter comes in on the tail of the last horse in the St Leger, or the stock market's Sell in May and go away; come back on St Leger day.
The St Leger is also the world's oldest Classic race. It was first run in 1776, an otherwise unremarkable year.
Looks like everything that could have gone wrong did. But, as always, it’s about overhead and padding. The grant from CA state was $1.7m
The actual cost (after donations) is $300k
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/24/us/san-francisco-toilet.html
Jenrick means no lunch or dinner that day.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/28/norfolk-marsh-bridge-national-trust
Note the price tag for a “bridge” across a ditch
JD Vance now says Haitian immigrants are spreading HIV after bizarre pet-eating claim flops
https://x.com/TheAdvocateMag/status/1834668688886157471
Today's big issue - Asda workers up in arms at the shitness of the music they are forced to listen to while they work.
I'm with them here. I like music as much as the next man - but I like the music which is to my taste. I'd rather have no music than music I don't like. I wouldn't expect other shoppers to be gleeful about having my playlists full of The Fall and Half Man Half Biscuit, and I don't understand the arrogance of people who think we all want to listen to their taste in terrible MOR in supermarkets.
That combination of “Remote Arrogance and Fuck You” is classic officialdom.
See also the RSPCA.
I'm not sure whether Starmer and Co feel like the cavalry or whether they're just a chink of light but they couldn't have arrived at a more opportune moment.
With Jenrick or Badenoch and possiby Trump and without the stability of the EU we'd have been well on our way up shit creek.
I think we should all say a bunch of Hail Marys for Sir Keir and an extra one for Kamala
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/13/graham-brady-reveals-secrets-how-five-tory-pms-ousted/ (£££)
No sooner has Parliament sat down after a long summer break and it all stops again for a month for Conference season. Why?
It really gives the impression of a political system that exists for itself, not the people.
Johnson has embraced Trump because he knows it is the way into mega-money gigs in the US. He's probably correct.
Truss has embraced Trump because she is unhinged.
The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back – A portion of a statement that Obama made in an October 2012 debate. In the debate, Obama was deriding an earlier Romney statement in the campaign that Russia is "without question, our No. 1 geopolitical foe."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_United_States_presidential_election#Presidential_debates
Edit : bit like other big land owners not wanting anyone walking across their land, eh?
He is siding with this country's enemies.
Trump dies and goes to see St Peter. Because he is a president, he gets the honour of seeing St Peter in his office, next to the pearly gates.
Trump looks at the room, and thinks the room is rather plain - except for the rear wall, which was covered in 45 clocks, each ticking at a different speed.
"Saint Peter," Trump asks, "What are those clocks?"
"Ah," Saint Peter says in a calm voice. "Each of those clocks belongs to a president of the United States, and each ticks at a different rate. The more lies you told in life, the quicker it ticks." He points at one that was scarcely moving. "That belonged to Lincoln." He points at another that was moving quite fast. "And that is Nixon's."
Intrigued, Trump asks: "So where is mine?"
"It is not here," Saint Peter replies.
"Oh," Trump says. "I guess I am too important for it to be amongst these lesser presidents."
"No," Saint Peter replies. "Jesus uses it as a ceiling fan."
There are some fine tools out there who do not deserve to be compared to Jenrick.
A minority of people (I am one) would prefer M6 traffic noise in a wet rush hour to unwanted music, but like silence better still.
Just imagine what their Christmas season music will be like when it starts on November 1st.
I think we should understand that the Tory party’s Trump problem is related to and in some ways a proxy for its Nigel Farage problem. Farage, who would dearly love to be Trump’s British mini-me, is the spectre haunting the Conservative leadership contest. Lacking the courage to shoot this fox, Tories such as Jenrick prefer to appease it.
There is, to be sure, an audience for revanchist conservatism in this country just as there is an audience for the kind of America-brained populism increasingly espoused by outlets such as GB News. The station is a portent of one possible Tory future and it is worth noting that some of its shows outperform their notional rivals on more established channels such as Sky News. In this respect, the future direction of The Daily Telegraph under its new owners, whenever they are revealed, will be a significant litmus test for the Tories’ future too.
But, influential or not, this kind of politics remains a minority enthusiasm. A Conservative Party which concludes it lost the general election because voters thought it was insufficiently right-wing is a party which will deserve everything it gets. Which will be precisely nothing.
Jenkyns and Jacob Rees Mogg.
They share a robust attitude to ethics and moral behaviour as well as their love for Donald Trump.
Lidl is brilliant. Much prefer it to Aldi.
But if you want some relevance I would suggest:
1) The particulars of what Haitian immigrants get up to matter less than highlighting that they are there. Haiti is a failed state, Haitians are failed state people, who wants failed state people when you have enough problems of your own ? The Dems poll badly on immigration so the more the focus is on immigration then the more it benefits Trump.
2) Other people might not agree with hostile references to the 1980s. Remember Labour's 'Fire up the Quattro' fiasco:
The Milibands' attempt to portray Tory leader as a throwback to the Eighties backfires spectacularly
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-poster-turns-cameron-into-a-cult-hero-1935428.html
https://x.com/AzeemRafiq30/status/1834157564537221267
Azeem Rafiq
@AzeemRafiq30
Marieha Hussain, a nine-months pregnant woman is on trial today for this placard
2024 Britain
But his side - and it is all about sides with c***s like him - won.
Last thing this country needs.
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
There's an interplay btwn immigration debates & the birth-rate issue that is only rarely acknowledged. World birth rates are below replacement levels in every continent except Africa. China's popn is already decreasing & almost every country's popn will be shrinking by 2040.+
Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
1h
+None of this means we shld hv no immigration controls or that immigration does not present problems of its own. But I think history will look back on the past 25 years & pronounce our high immigration an act of geopolitical genius, massively enhancing the UK's long-term status.
https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/1834868657106608423
madness. just utter madness. None of these people will return home on reality.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gegkkg14ko
We've recently had 14 years of a Conservative government promising to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, which would imply a total level of net migration of 1.4 million during their term of office. Net migration in 2022 and 2023 was above 1.4 million in those two years alone.
I am generally in favour of increasing people's freedom to move around the world and live where they want, but the democratic deficit is pretty clear.
If its not working, and we keep doing the same thing, it ain't gonna get any better.
Working too hard. But yes @TheScreamingEagles is right - cash is absolutely pointless. The arguments of the very few PBers who contested his view were incredibly weak.
If the voters really want lower immigration then they should vote for a party that promises higher tax and worse public services in exchange. I don't think they would vote for that in numbers higher than Reform poll.
Soon after I wonder if this is a deliberate policy to make people grab at things and run before they have a chance to think too hard about what they actually need.
Not a single voter mentioned any gratitude on the doorstep. Not one.
Politically, he should have put it into the NHS.
I particularly remember the lines
“but then the prospect of a lot
of dull MPs in close proximity
All thinking for themselves is what
No man can face with equinimity”
How would you improve it?
Why would anyone want to go anywhere else? (Remind me of this when I'm in the UAE in a fortnight...)
That's LOL considering the way we do things in this country.
Heading down to the vineyard later with my daughter to check on the grapes and have a country walk. We narrowly escaped frost last night. 2.1C. One vineyard down in Sussex got down to 0.3C.
Perhaps if we got MPs focused more on national issues and bolstered local democracy and - importantly - tax raising powers, we’d see less NIMBYism creeping into national party politics.