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Kemi Badenoch remains the favourite to succeed Sunak – politicalbetting.com

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,400
    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,400

    I'm at a boutique family hotel and the number of hot yummy mummies is off the scale. They all have kids called Alfie and Oscar and call the evening meal "supper" - you get the picture.

    Yes, I'm happily married but boy oh boy are they hot. They take care of themselves and know how to dress - such that one can easily mentally undress.

    Not sure they're as hot as my wife though.

    Become a Mormon.
    I sometimes wonder if I have a problem.

    Either lots of men are the same, and just keep it quiet, or I need a lot of cold showers.
    Not just you.

    I met the love of my life and I still couldn't keep the snake inside the pet store.
    It's hard.

    (stop sniggering at the back)
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,361
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Some rather disturbing polling here on refugees and asylum seekers.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1823073108439228805?s=61

    Wow.
    Jesus Fucking Christ
    Im genuinely shocked.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,808

    ydoethur said:

    TITS

    You're just milking it for attention now.
    Are you suggesting we should nip all this sort of thing in the bud?
    Seems like udder nonsense to me!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    It's worse than that

    39% think "when it comes to refugees, violence is acceptable if it is the only way to get the government's attention"

    This is dreadful. And yet, all so predictable. And Labour will do nothing about it, except make it worse as they try and censor anyone with these opinions. Trouble is, you cannot censor 40% of a nation
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,507
    Taz said:

    Some rather disturbing polling here on refugees and asylum seekers.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1823073108439228805?s=61

    Shit. That is terrible. :(
  • The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Anyone who said yes to any of those questions is racist and quasi-fash and should be written off.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Taz said:

    Some rather disturbing polling here on refugees and asylum seekers.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1823073108439228805?s=61

    Fieldwork 7-8 August. Still terrifying, but those figures are surely the absolute peak.

    A repoll when everyone has calmed down would surely show very different results.

    Like, asking a victims family straight after sentencing for an awful crime, whether we should introduce the death penalty vs a few months later.
    lol. Coz of course it's all going to get better. The boats will stop. Migration will come down to zero. There won't be any more terror attacks or knife crimes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    So this seems to be the explanation/excuse for the reduction in gold medals:

    UK Sport chair Katherine Grainger says Great Britain's success in Paris is "extraordinary", but Team GB have moved past the era of "winning at all costs".

    The five-time Olympic medal winner says creating a positive environment for the athletes is just as important as finishing on the podium.

    "It is about winning well, not winning at any cost," Grainger, who leads the body responsible for allocating funding to sports for each Olympic cycle.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/articles/c15gzzx1q5zo

    Well, they delivered about the same total and anyone who got one must have had a decent shout at a gold, so really it seems more like just a bit of bad luck that the ratio of golds is down as much as it is, and the approach taken at worst relatively neutral.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    BREAKING: The European Union has issued a formal letter to Elon Musk, demanding that he censor Donald Trump in their upcoming interview.

    The EU warns of "legal obligations" if Musk does not take action to prevent the spread of "disinformation."


    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1823057692409409961

    That...seems both a counterproductive approach and a bit much in advance.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,400
    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    It's worse than that

    39% think "when it comes to refugees, violence is acceptable if it is the only way to get the government's attention"

    This is dreadful. And yet, all so predictable. And Labour will do nothing about it, except make it worse as they try and censor anyone with these opinions. Trouble is, you cannot censor 40% of a nation
    Utterly appalling.

    No doubt we will now be met with a cacophony of excuses as to why it's either not a problem, their problem or our problem for 'goading' it.

    Outside a very small minority at absolutely no point do I expect any sort of epiphany on this by most of our liberal establishment.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,400

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Anyone who said yes to any of those questions is racist and quasi-fash and should be written off.
    Aaaaaand.. there we have it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    Taz said:

    Some rather disturbing polling here on refugees and asylum seekers.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1823073108439228805?s=61

    That is so much beyond what I would have expected, even assuming a significant amount as a demonstrative choice more than literal.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    .

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    The most significant domestic news for today - which I think I'm the only one to mention so far - is Labour publishing plans to grant councils compulsory purchase powers for green belt land, without their being required to pay for excessive planning gain.

    That has the potential to shift the dial.

    So, legalised theft then? That is shifting the dial somewhat.
    Land without planning permission (current state) is worth X; with permission is worth multiples of X. Market value is actually X plus a bit - with the premium representing a possibility it will get permission later. I think it's that price they are going for.
    It can’t be that mathematically

    If they issue a CPO the probability approaches 100%. If they don’t it approaches zero.

    Exactly. It's probably not a huge premium on the agricultural value of the land but it does exist and the premium would continue to exist if the speculator sold the land on
    because there is always a possibility of
    development on green belt land.
    No you are taking the option value from the owner.

    Of course. It would be stupid, or possibly corrupt, for the government not to in this case.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,361
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Some rather disturbing polling here on refugees and asylum seekers.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1823073108439228805?s=61

    Fieldwork 7-8 August. Still terrifying, but those figures are surely the absolute peak.

    A repoll when everyone has calmed down would surely show very different results.

    Like, asking a victims family straight after sentencing for an awful crime, whether we should introduce the death penalty vs a few months later.
    lol. Coz of course it's all going to get better. The boats will stop. Migration will come down to zero. There won't be any more terror attacks or knife crimes
    I’d have expected with the swift police action and the court cases going through at the time of the polling I would have expected the numbers to be lower than what would normally be expected not higher.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411

    Graham Thorpe, the former England cricketer, died after being struck by a train in Surrey.

    An inquest is due to open into Thorpe’s death on Tuesday, after his family revealed he took his own life following a long battle with depression and anxiety.

    Telegraph Sport understands that Thorpe died last Sunday morning after being hit by a train in east Surrey.

    A spokesman for Surrey Coroner said: “We can confirm that the Coroner has received a referral for a Mr Graham Thorpe from the British Transport Police. A post mortem examination has been undertaken and Mr Thorpe’s body released to his family.”


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2024/08/12/graham-thorpe-took-own-life-after-battle-with-depression-fa/

    Oh my goodness. Poor man.
  • The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Good point.

    My first response to that poll was thinking I hope its dodgy, and the lack of any DK etc is an indicator of it being dodgy.

    Who exactly are "We think" - I've never heard of them before.
  • Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Some rather disturbing polling here on refugees and asylum seekers.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1823073108439228805?s=61

    Fieldwork 7-8 August. Still terrifying, but those figures are surely the absolute peak.

    A repoll when everyone has calmed down would surely show very different results.

    Like, asking a victims family straight after sentencing for an awful crime, whether we should introduce the death penalty vs a few months later.
    lol. Coz of course it's all going to get better. The boats will stop. Migration will come down to zero. There won't be any more terror attacks or knife crimes
    If it wasn’t such a grim subject, I’d suggest a charity bet.

    The same/similar question, polled now, or in the next week or so, will show far lower figures in support of violence. You recon those figures are the new normal?

    I think you’re wrong.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Anyone who said yes to any of those questions is racist and quasi-fash and should be written off.
    That's 40% of the country. About 25-30 million people

    "write them off"

    How about addressing migration and asylum and integration, with firmness and fairness and bringing both migration and asylum down dramatically, so the public feels at peace and secure, and we don't turn into Nazi Germany? How about doing that?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,400
    Britain is staring down the barrel of a very hard-right government unless the nettle of mass migration is grasped and the boats stopped.

    End of.
  • The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Anyone who said yes to any of those questions is racist and quasi-fash and should be written off.
    Aaaaaand.. there we have it.
    You disagree?

    You think that someone answering that it is acceptable to use violence is not racist?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411
    edited August 12

    So this seems to be the explanation/excuse for the reduction in gold medals:

    UK Sport chair Katherine Grainger says Great Britain's success in Paris is "extraordinary", but Team GB have moved past the era of "winning at all costs".

    The five-time Olympic medal winner says creating a positive environment for the athletes is just as important as finishing on the podium.

    "It is about winning well, not winning at any cost," Grainger, who leads the body responsible for allocating funding to sports for each Olympic cycle.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/articles/c15gzzx1q5zo

    Pretty atrocious attitude. It seems Team GB should move on from the era of Katherine Grainger - and fast.
  • Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Anyone who said yes to any of those questions is racist and quasi-fash and should be written off.
    That's 40% of the country. About 25-30 million people

    "write them off"

    How about addressing migration and asylum and integration, with firmness and fairness and bringing both migration and asylum down dramatically, so the public feels at peace and secure, and we don't turn into Nazi Germany? How about doing that?
    I call bullshit that it is 40% of the country.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Good point.

    My first response to that poll was thinking I hope its dodgy, and the lack of any DK etc is an indicator of it being dodgy.

    Who exactly are "We think" - I've never heard of them before.
    They are members of the BPC and @Benpointer has been quoting them all week as they had the first post-election VI polls
  • Britain is staring down the barrel of a very hard-right government unless the nettle of mass migration is grasped and the boats stopped.

    End of.

    Considering that the two parties incessantly banging on about immigration just got hammered at the General Election, it seems unlikely.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Britain is staring down the barrel of a very hard-right government unless the nettle of mass migration is grasped and the boats stopped.

    End of.

    Quite

    And this is why Labour could be utterly destroyed on this issue in one term, very easily
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,507

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,775

    I'm at a boutique family hotel and the number of hot yummy mummies is off the scale. They all have kids called Alfie and Oscar and call the evening meal "supper" - you get the picture.

    Yes, I'm happily married but boy oh boy are they hot. They take care of themselves and know how to dress - such that one can easily mentally undress.

    Not sure they're as hot as my wife though.

    Become a Mormon.
    I sometimes wonder if I have a problem.

    Either lots of men are the same, and just keep it quiet, or I need a lot of cold showers.
    Not just you.

    I met the love of my life and I still couldn't keep the snake inside the pet store.
    What do women and swimming pools have in common?

    They both cost a lot of money to maintain for the amount of time you spend inside them.
    Jeez-oh :-(
  • TresTres Posts: 2,694

    700 people a day equates to over a quarter of a million a year.

    Sorry, but that's an invasion.

    you do know there are these things called seasons right?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Anyone who said yes to any of those questions is racist and quasi-fash and should be written off.
    That's 40% of the country. About 25-30 million people

    "write them off"

    How about addressing migration and asylum and integration, with firmness and fairness and bringing both migration and asylum down dramatically, so the public feels at peace and secure, and we don't turn into Nazi Germany? How about doing that?
    I call bullshit that it is 40% of the country.
    Unfortunately not complete bullshit. Most Reform voters and and about half of Conservatives are racists who endorse violence. It's what it is.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,507

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    It's worse than that

    39% think "when it comes to refugees, violence is acceptable if it is the only way to get the government's attention"

    This is dreadful. And yet, all so predictable. And Labour will do nothing about it, except make it worse as they try and censor anyone with these opinions. Trouble is, you cannot censor 40% of a nation
    Utterly appalling.

    No doubt we will now be met with a cacophony of excuses as to why it's either not a problem, their problem or our problem for 'goading' it.

    Outside a very small minority at absolutely no point do I expect any sort of epiphany on this by most of our liberal establishment.
    What the fuck has this got to do with the 'liberal establishment'? These are the attitudes of the 1930s.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Some rather disturbing polling here on refugees and asylum seekers.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1823073108439228805?s=61

    Fieldwork 7-8 August. Still terrifying, but those figures are surely the absolute peak.

    A repoll when everyone has calmed down would surely show very different results.

    Like, asking a victims family straight after sentencing for an awful crime, whether we should introduce the death penalty vs a few months later.
    lol. Coz of course it's all going to get better. The boats will stop. Migration will come down to zero. There won't be any more terror attacks or knife crimes
    If it wasn’t such a grim subject, I’d suggest a charity bet.

    The same/similar question, polled now, or in the next week or so, will show far lower figures in support of violence. You recon those figures are the new normal?

    I think you’re wrong.
    My guess is they will be extremely volatile, as the national mood is so febrile. Could go down massively next week, then another atrocity, and they will go back up

    Does it matter? Getting this polling result just once is a huge alarm signal

    It's like one day when your blood pressure consistently reads 190/120. You need to see a doctor. You need to do something


  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    edited August 12
    Taz said:

    Some rather disturbing polling here on refugees and asylum seekers.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1823073108439228805?s=61

    I like this reply.

    "James
    @liljamesjohn
    For a country of 50m+, asking 1,278 people doesn't seem that reliable."
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,775
    Taz said:

    Some rather disturbing polling here on refugees and asylum seekers.

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1823073108439228805?s=61

    I can't really dig in as twitter doesn't let me - but is there any break-down of where the figures come from?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651

    Britain is staring down the barrel of a very hard-right government unless the nettle of mass migration is grasped and the boats stopped.

    End of.

    The nettle of mass migration is relatively easy to grasp. The boat migrations are much harder to deal but a small percentage of the total.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    edited August 12

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Well, if 30% of respondents didn't give an answer that would cut the number to a sixth*, as it is we just don't know. I also suspect the red-green was chosen for (melo)dramatic reasons.

    *number plucked from my arse
  • Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Good point.

    My first response to that poll was thinking I hope its dodgy, and the lack of any DK etc is an indicator of it being dodgy.

    Who exactly are "We think" - I've never heard of them before.
    They are members of the BPC and @Benpointer has been quoting them all week as they had the first post-election VI polls
    If they're members of the BPC then where are the data tables, because options never add up to 100% without excluding some data.

    I call bullshit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,579

    Leon said:

    On cross-channel migration:

    Look at this chart. Why did the numbers crossing the Channel suddenly jump from 2019? And it's not a small change.

    It's not a change in government policy here in the UK. There are push and pull factors, so what's changed with the push factors? Syria and the Arab Spring happened thirteen years ago. So why the sudden uptick?

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/people-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/

    One theory is that we successfully closed off the land crossing - ie the lorries in the Chunnel

    So then one bright spark thought: Hold on, why don't we simply cross in a boat, and they did, and it was easy, and no one could stop them as it risked drowning them. And, the French were probably quite happy to see them go. And then everyone copied those pioneers

    Literally that simple. No one had tried it before
    It's fucking BREXIT you stupid fool!
    Making the UK more attractive, you mean?
    Ahaha nice try. So by your logic, before Brexit it was:

    "I've risked my life to escape the Taliban, left my family behind, blown my life savings on getting to Europe, but OMG I'm not going to the UK where they are under the yoke of the EU. Oh no, I'd rather stay here in France, in the, er, EU"

    I can see why you struggle with a lot of this if that's your thought process.
    And what’s your logic for Brexit being to blame?
    My logic is simple. Total lack of incentive on the part of the French to help prevent any boats. Quite the opposite in fact. We told them we were leaving because we didn't like them; they said well fuck-you then. We'd have done the same if the roles were reversed.

    It's blindingly obvious and entirely predictable.
    And what incentive did they have before?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,198

    So this seems to be the explanation/excuse for the reduction in gold medals:

    UK Sport chair Katherine Grainger says Great Britain's success in Paris is "extraordinary", but Team GB have moved past the era of "winning at all costs".

    The five-time Olympic medal winner says creating a positive environment for the athletes is just as important as finishing on the podium.

    "It is about winning well, not winning at any cost," Grainger, who leads the body responsible for allocating funding to sports for each Olympic cycle.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/articles/c15gzzx1q5zo

    Pretty atrocious attitude. It seems Team GB should move on from the era of Katherine Grainger - and fast.
    British Rowing essentially told her (and her ilk) to do one. And brought back heavy end seat racing*. Hence the golds.

    *The practise of swapping people in and out of the boat and in different positions to see if it goes faster. Considered fairly brutal since you can be dropped from the boat at any time, if someone makes the boat go faster.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    It's worse than that

    39% think "when it comes to refugees, violence is acceptable if it is the only way to get the government's attention"

    This is dreadful. And yet, all so predictable. And Labour will do nothing about it, except make it worse as they try and censor anyone with these opinions. Trouble is, you cannot censor 40% of a nation
    Utterly appalling.

    No doubt we will now be met with a cacophony of excuses as to why it's either not a problem, their problem or our problem for 'goading' it.

    Outside a very small minority at absolutely no point do I expect any sort of epiphany on this by most of our liberal establishment.
    What the fuck has this got to do with the 'liberal establishment'? These are the attitudes of the 1930s.
    The liberals aren't the problem here.

    (And weren't in the 1930s either)
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,775
    kle4 said:

    BREAKING: The European Union has issued a formal letter to Elon Musk, demanding that he censor Donald Trump in their upcoming interview.

    The EU warns of "legal obligations" if Musk does not take action to prevent the spread of "disinformation."


    https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/1823057692409409961

    That...seems both a counterproductive approach and a bit much in advance.
    It's reminding me of the Thick Of It along the lines of "If you don't stop bullying me I'll wet myself!!!!".
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,866

    Britain is staring down the barrel of a very hard-right government unless the nettle of mass migration is grasped and the boats stopped.

    End of.

    What would this "hard right" (I don't even understand the term let alone what it means) Government actually do except talk tough?

    Are we talking a complete ban on all immigration (or a one-in, one-out policy which would be easy once tens of thousands of people who wouldn't want to live under such a Government have emigrated)?

    As for "stopping the boats" - let's say it out aloud - are we talking about the Royal Navy in the Channel or the Irish Sea forcibly sinking migrant dinghies and leaving the migrants to drown? Is this what this "hard right" Government would do with public support? The international community might have a view.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964

    Britain is staring down the barrel of a very hard-right government unless the nettle of mass migration is grasped and the boats stopped.

    End of.

    Considering that the two parties incessantly banging on about immigration just got hammered at the General Election, it seems unlikely.
    Ah yes. As we have seen voting will be the only way for the citizens to express themselves.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Can you not understand how it has happened? How we have reached this appalling state of affairs?

    Britons have consistently voted for much much lower migration for decades, and it has never happened. No government has delivered it. The brexit vote itself was a cry of pain, from many, on this issue. And AGAIN it was ignored, indeed the stupid Tories TRIPLED immigration

    All that plus the boats, and various integration problems, many of them horrendous

    You and I both revile these answers, I cannot wrap my head around them, but they tell us we need - finally - to actually do what the public wants. Get migration down under 100,000. Stop the boats. We cannot wish this polling away with fainting fits
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    FF43 said:

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    It's worse than that

    39% think "when it comes to refugees, violence is acceptable if it is the only way to get the government's attention"

    This is dreadful. And yet, all so predictable. And Labour will do nothing about it, except make it worse as they try and censor anyone with these opinions. Trouble is, you cannot censor 40% of a nation
    Utterly appalling.

    No doubt we will now be met with a cacophony of excuses as to why it's either not a problem, their problem or our problem for 'goading' it.

    Outside a very small minority at absolutely no point do I expect any sort of epiphany on this by most of our liberal establishment.
    What the fuck has this got to do with the 'liberal establishment'? These are the attitudes of the 1930s.
    The liberals aren't the problem here.

    (And weren't in the 1930s either)
    Well Lloyd George was a wee bit fash sympathetic..
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,579

    Britain is staring down the barrel of a very hard-right government unless the nettle of mass migration is grasped and the boats stopped.

    End of.

    Considering that the two parties incessantly banging on about immigration just got hammered at the General Election, it seems unlikely.
    We just elected a man who was promising to cut immigration and specifically said people should be deported to Bangladesh.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Good point.

    My first response to that poll was thinking I hope its dodgy, and the lack of any DK etc is an indicator of it being dodgy.

    Who exactly are "We think" - I've never heard of them before.
    They are members of the BPC and @Benpointer has been quoting them all week as they had the first post-election VI polls
    If they're members of the BPC then where are the data tables, because options never add up to 100% without excluding some data.

    I call bullshit.
    They are members of the BPC. Scroll down

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Well, if 30% of respondents didn't give an answer that would cut the number to a sixth*, as it is we just don't know. I also suspect the red-green was chosen for (melo)dramatic reasons.

    *number plucked from my arse
    We are missing the point.

    Which is where the **** is VI? There's all sorts of polling going - have we just forgotten to ask people how they plan to vote?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Good point.

    My first response to that poll was thinking I hope its dodgy, and the lack of any DK etc is an indicator of it being dodgy.

    Who exactly are "We think" - I've never heard of them before.
    They are members of the BPC and @Benpointer has been quoting them all week as they had the first post-election VI polls
    'All week' is doing a lot of work there. But yes, WeThink used to be Omnisis, so an established pollster.

    On the face of it those are terrible numbers. I would like to see the data tables though.

    (Also, I'm intrigued that WeThink deleted posts 5 and 6 from that thread.)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,507

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Well, if 30% of respondents didn't give an answer that would cut the number to a sixth*, as it is we just don't know. I also suspect the red-green was chosen for (melo)dramatic reasons.

    *number plucked from my arse
    But my point is that if someone is willing to answer 'don't know' to that sort of question then, unless they are terminally stupid, they are just as bad as those who say yes. How can you read a question asking if it is acceptable to use violence against asylum seekers and 'not know' the answer?
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Good point.

    My first response to that poll was thinking I hope its dodgy, and the lack of any DK etc is an indicator of it being dodgy.

    Who exactly are "We think" - I've never heard of them before.
    They are members of the BPC and @Benpointer has been quoting them all week as they had the first post-election VI polls
    If they're members of the BPC then where are the data tables, because options never add up to 100% without excluding some data.

    I call bullshit.
    They are members of the BPC. Scroll down

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    That isn't what I said.

    So where are the data tables?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Well, if 30% of respondents didn't give an answer that would cut the number to a sixth*, as it is we just don't know. I also suspect the red-green was chosen for (melo)dramatic reasons.

    *number plucked from my arse
    We are missing the point.

    Which is where the **** is VI? There's all sorts of polling going - have we just forgotten to ask people how they plan to vote?
    I suspect there's no funding for it this far away from any potential GE.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Good point.

    My first response to that poll was thinking I hope its dodgy, and the lack of any DK etc is an indicator of it being dodgy.

    Who exactly are "We think" - I've never heard of them before.
    They are members of the BPC and @Benpointer has been quoting them all week as they had the first post-election VI polls
    If they're members of the BPC then where are the data tables, because options never add up to 100% without excluding some data.

    I call bullshit.
    They are members of the BPC. Scroll down

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    That isn't what I said.

    So where are the data tables?
    WHERE IS VOTING INTENTION.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Good point.

    My first response to that poll was thinking I hope its dodgy, and the lack of any DK etc is an indicator of it being dodgy.

    Who exactly are "We think" - I've never heard of them before.
    They are members of the BPC and @Benpointer has been quoting them all week as they had the first post-election VI polls
    If they're members of the BPC then where are the data tables, because options never add up to 100% without excluding some data.

    I call bullshit.
    They are members of the BPC. Scroll down

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    That isn't what I said.

    So where are the data tables?
    There's lots more results on their own TwiX account (some equally disturbing), but it seems they haven't put the full tables up yet. Looks like they do that a couple of days later, judging by their website
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Good point.

    My first response to that poll was thinking I hope its dodgy, and the lack of any DK etc is an indicator of it being dodgy.

    Who exactly are "We think" - I've never heard of them before.
    They are members of the BPC and @Benpointer has been quoting them all week as they had the first post-election VI polls
    If they're members of the BPC then where are the data tables, because options never add up to 100% without excluding some data.

    I call bullshit.
    They are members of the BPC. Scroll down

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    That isn't what I said.

    So where are the data tables?
    I think the rule is that they have to be published within a few days or a week of publishing the poll.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,775
    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Can you not understand how it has happened? How we have reached this appalling state of affairs?

    Britons have consistently voted for much much lower migration for decades, and it has never happened. No government has delivered it. The brexit vote itself was a cry of pain, from many, on this issue. And AGAIN it was ignored, indeed the stupid Tories TRIPLED immigration

    All that plus the boats, and various integration problems, many of them horrendous

    You and I both revile these answers, I cannot wrap my head around them, but they tell us we need - finally - to actually do what the public wants. Get migration down under 100,000. Stop the boats. We cannot wish this polling away with fainting fits
    To be fair, Britons have also voted for higher yet lower taxes, more yet less public spending, more pro-eco policies and yet fewer eco-policies. Which various governments have chosen to accept or reject is more down to policy, internal factions and momentary convenience than anything else.

    Maybe another (or even this) government will get migration down to under 100k. Then howls of outrage as the gaps high migration was covering for are exposed to the salted air. Roll on in the next government promising all will be well if we increase migration by just a bit.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited August 12

    So this seems to be the explanation/excuse for the reduction in gold medals:

    UK Sport chair Katherine Grainger says Great Britain's success in Paris is "extraordinary", but Team GB have moved past the era of "winning at all costs".

    The five-time Olympic medal winner says creating a positive environment for the athletes is just as important as finishing on the podium.

    "It is about winning well, not winning at any cost," Grainger, who leads the body responsible for allocating funding to sports for each Olympic cycle.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/articles/c15gzzx1q5zo

    We can celebrate whatever we want to celebrate. Winning the most medals in the world after US and China seems a pretty big achievement to me. Happy to congratulate the whole GB team for it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Well, if 30% of respondents didn't give an answer that would cut the number to a sixth*, as it is we just don't know. I also suspect the red-green was chosen for (melo)dramatic reasons.

    *number plucked from my arse
    We are missing the point.

    Which is where the **** is VI? There's all sorts of polling going - have we just forgotten to ask people how they plan to vote?
    I suspect there's no funding for it this far away from any potential GE.
    Voting intention polls typically start days after the general election. And this poll (and others) clearly established previous voting, so what 'funding' is needed to add voting intention?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,507

    Leon said:

    On cross-channel migration:

    Look at this chart. Why did the numbers crossing the Channel suddenly jump from 2019? And it's not a small change.

    It's not a change in government policy here in the UK. There are push and pull factors, so what's changed with the push factors? Syria and the Arab Spring happened thirteen years ago. So why the sudden uptick?

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/people-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/

    One theory is that we successfully closed off the land crossing - ie the lorries in the Chunnel

    So then one bright spark thought: Hold on, why don't we simply cross in a boat, and they did, and it was easy, and no one could stop them as it risked drowning them. And, the French were probably quite happy to see them go. And then everyone copied those pioneers

    Literally that simple. No one had tried it before
    It's fucking BREXIT you stupid fool!
    Making the UK more attractive, you mean?
    Ahaha nice try. So by your logic, before Brexit it was:

    "I've risked my life to escape the Taliban, left my family behind, blown my life savings on getting to Europe, but OMG I'm not going to the UK where they are under the yoke of the EU. Oh no, I'd rather stay here in France, in the, er, EU"

    I can see why you struggle with a lot of this if that's your thought process.
    And what’s your logic for Brexit being to blame?
    My logic is simple. Total lack of incentive on the part of the French to help prevent any boats. Quite the opposite in fact. We told them we were leaving because we didn't like them; they said well fuck-you then. We'd have done the same if the roles were reversed.

    It's blindingly obvious and entirely predictable.
    So I will ask again. Why is the year with the highest number of asylum seekers reaching the UK in the last quarter century not any of the years since Brexit but 2002 - when, as I seem to recall, we were still firmly within the EU?

    You are so desperate to blame Brexit for everything that you have had a total logic failure.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,707
    Rather foolish of the new government to rule out Rwanda without any credible alternative policy. Or does anyone think that: 1. targeting criminal gangs; 2. establishing a Border Security Command; 3. creating a "Returns and Enforcement Unit" amounts to a credible policy?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,207
    stodge said:

    Britain is staring down the barrel of a very hard-right government unless the nettle of mass migration is grasped and the boats stopped.

    End of.

    What would this "hard right" (I don't even understand the term let alone what it means) Government actually do except talk tough?

    Are we talking a complete ban on all immigration (or a one-in, one-out policy which would be easy once tens of thousands of people who wouldn't want to live under such a Government have emigrated)?

    As for "stopping the boats" - let's say it out aloud - are we talking about the Royal Navy in the Channel or the Irish Sea forcibly sinking migrant dinghies and leaving the migrants to drown? Is this what this "hard right" Government would do with public support? The international community might have a view.
    Unfortunately, the debate hasn't got as far as "OK, you want a lot less immigration. How should the government deal with the consequences of making that happen?" There is still a fantasy that number can be made to go down and coastline can be cleared of small boats with no side effects whatsoever.

    As for the polling, yes it's bad but it is worth noting it was done at peak panic. And personally, I'd like to see what agreement with the inverse statements is like- we know that people have a bias to agreeing with X, however silly it is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    To be honest it could have been worse, he might have posted an erection.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Anyone who said yes to any of those questions is racist and quasi-fash and should be written off.
    That's 40% of the country. About 25-30 million people

    "write them off"

    How about addressing migration and asylum and integration, with firmness and fairness and bringing both migration and asylum down dramatically, so the public feels at peace and secure, and we don't turn into Nazi Germany? How about doing that?
    I call bullshit that it is 40% of the country.
    Yes, it doesn't match with the 7% approval of people who did actually attack and threaten migrants.

    I suspect it's people talking tough but horrified when they actually see it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Well, if 30% of respondents didn't give an answer that would cut the number to a sixth*, as it is we just don't know. I also suspect the red-green was chosen for (melo)dramatic reasons.

    *number plucked from my arse
    But my point is that if someone is willing to answer 'don't know' to that sort of question then, unless they are terminally stupid, they are just as bad as those who say yes. How can you read a question asking if it is acceptable to use violence against asylum seekers and 'not know' the answer?
    Yes, good point

    It's not really a question where you shrug and say "hmm, dunno". It doesn't need deep thinking, does it? It's not like it demands great knowledge of politics

    It asks you, do you approve of attacking migrants and refugees if it finally gets the attention of the government. And 40% said YEAH

    That's the biggest ever signal I have seen, in this country, of the entire place going Fash unless we get a grip on these problems

    Incidentally, in one of their later questions DKs are at 10%, FWIW
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,348
    edited August 12
    There's an establishment consensus to talk tough on immigration but not do enough about it to bring the numbers down. The voters aren't idiots, they can tell when they're being mugged off, and it pisses them right off.

    You have to be honest in your words and deeds. If you speak tough on immigration then you have to act tough, and get the numbers down whatever the collateral damage to the economy, to people falling in love across borders, etc.

    If you're not willing to incur those costs then you have to explain to the public why, and either win their support for higher immigration, or lose the election to someone who will act tough.

    What's really tragic about the current system is that the immigration system isn't particularly lax. It's randomly cruel still to the windrush generation, it leaves refugees in destitution and limbo for years, it creates huge bureaucratic hurdles for normal people trying to live normal lives, and yet, despite that, despite all the rhetoric, there's still massive amounts of immigration.

    I can't imagine anyone is happy with the status quo of the immigration system.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,638
    edited August 12
    I'm curious as to why there is such divergence between the different pollsters. For example, you only get 6% support for the current "unrest" with YouGov.

    Is it to do with hypotheticals? Lots of "sometimes" in the questions. Perhaps people kinda like the idea of a fight, but when one actually happens....nah.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,411
    geoffw said:

    Rather foolish of the new government to rule out Rwanda without any credible alternative policy. Or does anyone think that: 1. targeting criminal gangs; 2. establishing a Border Security Command; 3. creating a "Returns and Enforcement Unit" amounts to a credible policy?

    That's very unfair - you forgot 4. Give the French even more money.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    Wethink admit, in their own Twitterfeed, that these results are "harrowing"

    Indeed. And also an urgent call to action
  • Leon said:

    Wethink admit, in their own Twitterfeed, that these results are "harrowing"

    Indeed. And also an urgent call to action

    Without seeing the data tables it seems to me like a Yes, Minister style push poll that is designed to get attention.

    Other surveys have shown nothing like this.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    edited August 12
    Leon said:

    Wethink admit, in their own Twitterfeed, that these results are "harrowing"

    Indeed. And also an urgent call to action

    It's difficult to believe this is what people really think.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,775

    There's an establishment consensus to talk tough on immigration but not do enough about it to bring the numbers down. The voters aren't idiots, they can tell when they're being mugged off, and it pisses them right off.

    You have to be honest in your words and actions. If you speak tough on immigration then you have to act tough, and get the numbers down whatever the collateral damage to the economy, to people falling in love across borders, etc.

    If you're not willing to incur those costs then you have to explain to the public why, and either win their support for higher immigration, or lose the election to someone who will act tough.

    What's really tragic about the current system is that the immigration system isn't particularly lax. It's randomly cruel still to the windrush generation, it leaves refugees in destitution and limbo for years, it creates huge bureaucratic hurdles for normal people trying to live normal lives, and yet, despite that, despite all the rhetoric, there's still massive amounts of immigration.

    I can't imagine anyone is happy with the status quo of the immigration system.

    "Randomly cruel" is an apt description about how most of the systems work. Whether you're on benefits, seeking asylum, about to take a pay-rise, moving house, going part-time, bettering yourself through eduction or training, or... almost anything else really.

    Not sure anyone is aiming to fill that gap, politically.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,579

    Leon said:

    Wethink admit, in their own Twitterfeed, that these results are "harrowing"

    Indeed. And also an urgent call to action

    Without seeing the data tables it seems to me like a Yes, Minister style push poll that is designed to get attention.

    Other surveys have shown nothing like this.
    Push polling isn’t completely worthless because it shows how far people can be pushed.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,507
    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Can you not understand how it has happened? How we have reached this appalling state of affairs?

    Britons have consistently voted for much much lower migration for decades, and it has never happened. No government has delivered it. The brexit vote itself was a cry of pain, from many, on this issue. And AGAIN it was ignored, indeed the stupid Tories TRIPLED immigration

    All that plus the boats, and various integration problems, many of them horrendous

    You and I both revile these answers, I cannot wrap my head around them, but they tell us we need - finally - to actually do what the public wants. Get migration down under 100,000. Stop the boats. We cannot wish this polling away with fainting fits
    If you get migration down to under 100,000 then this country collapses. Do you not get this? The asylum seeker numbers are tiny compared to legal migration and the legal migration numbers are where they are because we NEED those people.

    Whether they come from India or Poland, it doesn't matter. We NEED the immigration just to keep the country, and particularly our NHS and social care, running. If you want someone to wipe your arse in a decade when you are drooling in a bath chair then you, personally, NEED those immigrants. If you want someone to try and fix that alcohol raddled liver and deal with your terminal flatulance then you NEED those immigrants.

    There are many things we and the politicians can do to improve integration - as I have said before, look at Norway - but we won't do them as long as we see immigration as a curse rather than a necessity and a benefit.



  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    edited August 12

    Leon said:

    On cross-channel migration:

    Look at this chart. Why did the numbers crossing the Channel suddenly jump from 2019? And it's not a small change.

    It's not a change in government policy here in the UK. There are push and pull factors, so what's changed with the push factors? Syria and the Arab Spring happened thirteen years ago. So why the sudden uptick?

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/people-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/

    One theory is that we successfully closed off the land crossing - ie the lorries in the Chunnel

    So then one bright spark thought: Hold on, why don't we simply cross in a boat, and they did, and it was easy, and no one could stop them as it risked drowning them. And, the French were probably quite happy to see them go. And then everyone copied those pioneers

    Literally that simple. No one had tried it before
    It's fucking BREXIT you stupid fool!
    Making the UK more attractive, you mean?
    Ahaha nice try. So by your logic, before Brexit it was:

    "I've risked my life to escape the Taliban, left my family behind, blown my life savings on getting to Europe, but OMG I'm not going to the UK where they are under the yoke of the EU. Oh no, I'd rather stay here in France, in the, er, EU"

    I can see why you struggle with a lot of this if that's your thought process.
    And what’s your logic for Brexit being to blame?
    My logic is simple. Total lack of incentive on the part of the French to help prevent any boats. Quite the opposite in fact. We told them we were leaving because we didn't like them; they said well fuck-you then. We'd have done the same if the roles were reversed.

    It's blindingly obvious and entirely predictable.
    So I will ask again. Why is the year with the highest number of asylum seekers reaching the UK in the last quarter century not any of the years since Brexit but 2002 - when, as I seem to recall, we were still firmly within the EU?

    You are so desperate to blame Brexit for everything that you have had a total logic failure.
    It's not hard to understand why 2002 was such a bad year for asylum seeker numbers: as the Migration Observatory website points out there were conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia and the Balkans.

    What's your explanation for asylum numbers remaining consistently below 40k throughout the period 2005 to 2018?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,707
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Anyone who said yes to any of those questions is racist and quasi-fash and should be written off.
    That's 40% of the country. About 25-30 million people

    "write them off"

    How about addressing migration and asylum and integration, with firmness and fairness and bringing both migration and asylum down dramatically, so the public feels at peace and secure, and we don't turn into Nazi Germany? How about doing that?
    I call bullshit that it is 40% of the country.
    Yes, it doesn't match with the 7% approval of people who did actually attack and threaten migrants.

    I suspect it's people talking tough but horrified when they actually see it.
    When people respond to this kind of poll they may be trying to send a message rather than telling the honest truth. They know politicians read the polling. It's like the observer effect in physics (where the act of observation alters the behaviour of the system).

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,009
    edited August 12
    Good evening

    Seems tonight's poll has come as a shock to many with some so incredulous they are questioning the validity of the poll

    I would like to see further polling on this, but it is undeniable that a considerable number of our fellow citizens are extremely worried about immigration and the boat crossings and it would be an error to label them all as far right

    When the furore calms down over the recent events, a conversation on immigration and the boats will be unavoidable and I notice Dame Margaret Hodge has come out in the open saying so

    It is likely to worsen across Europe in the coming years and will raise real problems for all governments

    https://www.theguardian.com/global/article/2024/aug/11/were-too-frightened-to-talk-about-immigration-warns-top-labour-party-veteran?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Good point.

    My first response to that poll was thinking I hope its dodgy, and the lack of any DK etc is an indicator of it being dodgy.

    Who exactly are "We think" - I've never heard of them before.
    They are members of the BPC and @Benpointer has been quoting them all week as they had the first post-election VI polls
    If they're members of the BPC then where are the data tables, because options never add up to 100% without excluding some data.

    I call bullshit.
    They are members of the BPC. Scroll down

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    That isn't what I said.

    So where are the data tables?
    I think the rule is that they have to be published within a few days or a week of publishing the poll.
    The last tweet in the thread says:

    This week’s poll was conducted on 7-8 August '24, to 1,278 people & weighted to a nat rep population. Search “WeThink polling” on all your social media channels & you’ll find us. Tabs to follow.

    (My bold)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Leon said:

    On cross-channel migration:

    Look at this chart. Why did the numbers crossing the Channel suddenly jump from 2019? And it's not a small change.

    It's not a change in government policy here in the UK. There are push and pull factors, so what's changed with the push factors? Syria and the Arab Spring happened thirteen years ago. So why the sudden uptick?

    https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/people-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/

    One theory is that we successfully closed off the land crossing - ie the lorries in the Chunnel

    So then one bright spark thought: Hold on, why don't we simply cross in a boat, and they did, and it was easy, and no one could stop them as it risked drowning them. And, the French were probably quite happy to see them go. And then everyone copied those pioneers

    Literally that simple. No one had tried it before
    It's fucking BREXIT you stupid fool!
    Making the UK more attractive, you mean?
    Ahaha nice try. So by your logic, before Brexit it was:

    "I've risked my life to escape the Taliban, left my family behind, blown my life savings on getting to Europe, but OMG I'm not going to the UK where they are under the yoke of the EU. Oh no, I'd rather stay here in France, in the, er, EU"

    I can see why you struggle with a lot of this if that's your thought process.
    And what’s your logic for Brexit being to blame?
    My logic is simple. Total lack of incentive on the part of the French to help prevent any boats. Quite the opposite in fact. We told them we were leaving because we didn't like them; they said well fuck-you then. We'd have done the same if the roles were reversed.

    It's blindingly obvious and entirely predictable.
    So I will ask again. Why is the year with the highest number of asylum seekers reaching the UK in the last quarter century not any of the years since Brexit but 2002 - when, as I seem to recall, we were still firmly within the EU?

    You are so desperate to blame Brexit for everything that you have had a total logic failure.
    Also, who fucking cares about Brexit? The entire continent is going hard right, it's not like we are some crazy evil outlier

    The hard right WON the Italian and Dutch elections. They were the biggest party in the French elex. They are in coalition in Sweden. They are rising in Germany. The Danes have a leftwing government that literally bulldozes ethnic ghettoes, because they were so scared of polling like this, if they didn't do it

  • Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Can you not understand how it has happened? How we have reached this appalling state of affairs?

    Britons have consistently voted for much much lower migration for decades, and it has never happened. No government has delivered it. The brexit vote itself was a cry of pain, from many, on this issue. And AGAIN it was ignored, indeed the stupid Tories TRIPLED immigration

    All that plus the boats, and various integration problems, many of them horrendous

    You and I both revile these answers, I cannot wrap my head around them, but they tell us we need - finally - to actually do what the public wants. Get migration down under 100,000. Stop the boats. We cannot wish this polling away with fainting fits
    If you get migration down to under 100,000 then this country collapses. Do you not get this? The asylum seeker numbers are tiny compared to legal migration and the legal migration numbers are where they are because we NEED those people.

    Whether they come from India or Poland, it doesn't matter. We NEED the immigration just to keep the country, and particularly our NHS and social care, running. If you want someone to wipe your arse in a decade when you are drooling in a bath chair then you, personally, NEED those immigrants. If you want someone to try and fix that alcohol raddled liver and deal with your terminal flatulance then you NEED those immigrants.

    There are many things we and the politicians can do to improve integration - as I have said before, look at Norway - but we won't do them as long as we see immigration as a curse rather than a necessity and a benefit.



    I welcome migrants, but we don't NEED anyone, its a choice to have people or not. I'm in favour of the choice of welcoming people, but its not a problem if we don't.

    We don't NEED migrants to wipe people's arses, that's a myth, 81% of people working in care are British citizens, the idea they're all migrants is a complete myth.

    If we're going to welcome people to this country, and I think we should, we should be preferably welcoming more who are highly skilled over low skilled - but either way we need to build considerably more houses and other infrastructure too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Can you not understand how it has happened? How we have reached this appalling state of affairs?

    Britons have consistently voted for much much lower migration for decades, and it has never happened. No government has delivered it. The brexit vote itself was a cry of pain, from many, on this issue. And AGAIN it was ignored, indeed the stupid Tories TRIPLED immigration

    All that plus the boats, and various integration problems, many of them horrendous

    You and I both revile these answers, I cannot wrap my head around them, but they tell us we need - finally - to actually do what the public wants. Get migration down under 100,000. Stop the boats. We cannot wish this polling away with fainting fits
    If you get migration down to under 100,000 then this country collapses. Do you not get this? The asylum seeker numbers are tiny compared to legal migration and the legal migration numbers are where they are because we NEED those people.

    Whether they come from India or Poland, it doesn't matter. We NEED the immigration just to keep the country, and particularly our NHS and social care, running. If you want someone to wipe your arse in a decade when you are drooling in a bath chair then you, personally, NEED those immigrants. If you want someone to try and fix that alcohol raddled liver and deal with your terminal flatulance then you NEED those immigrants.

    There are many things we and the politicians can do to improve integration - as I have said before, look at Norway - but we won't do them as long as we see immigration as a curse rather than a necessity and a benefit.



    I disagree, but at least you are willing to have the argument, tho you could drop the pointless ad hominem

    I think the costs in cohesion and crime etc are now too great. We have to accept the economic pain that comes with severely limited migration, and the government needs to be honest with the public. "OK we will bring it down, but it will be painful"

    Mass migration was always a ponzi scheme in the end, bound to collapse, especially in a crowded country like the UK
  • TresTres Posts: 2,694

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Good point.

    My first response to that poll was thinking I hope its dodgy, and the lack of any DK etc is an indicator of it being dodgy.

    Who exactly are "We think" - I've never heard of them before.
    They are members of the BPC and @Benpointer has been quoting them all week as they had the first post-election VI polls
    If they're members of the BPC then where are the data tables, because options never add up to 100% without excluding some data.

    I call bullshit.
    They are members of the BPC. Scroll down

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    That isn't what I said.

    So where are the data tables?
    WHERE IS VOTING INTENTION.
    we just had a general election, pollsters are off doing more interesting things
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Can you not understand how it has happened? How we have reached this appalling state of affairs?

    Britons have consistently voted for much much lower migration for decades, and it has never happened. No government has delivered it. The brexit vote itself was a cry of pain, from many, on this issue. And AGAIN it was ignored, indeed the stupid Tories TRIPLED immigration

    All that plus the boats, and various integration problems, many of them horrendous

    You and I both revile these answers, I cannot wrap my head around them, but they tell us we need - finally - to actually do what the public wants. Get migration down under 100,000. Stop the boats. We cannot wish this polling away with fainting fits
    If you get migration down to under 100,000 then this country collapses. Do you not get this? The asylum seeker numbers are tiny compared to legal migration and the legal migration numbers are where they are because we NEED those people.

    Whether they come from India or Poland, it doesn't matter. We NEED the immigration just to keep the country, and particularly our NHS and social care, running. If you want someone to wipe your arse in a decade when you are drooling in a bath chair then you, personally, NEED those immigrants. If you want someone to try and fix that alcohol raddled liver and deal with your terminal flatulance then you NEED those immigrants.

    There are many things we and the politicians can do to improve integration - as I have said before, look at Norway - but we won't do them as long as we see immigration as a curse rather than a necessity and a benefit.



    Why didn't the country collapse before 1997 when we had very low levels of immigration?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,809
    viewcode said:

    Carnyx said:

    I'm at a boutique family hotel and the number of hot yummy mummies is off the scale. They all have kids called Alfie and Oscar and call the evening meal "supper" - you get the picture.

    Yes, I'm happily married but boy oh boy are they hot. They take care of themselves and know how to dress - such that one can easily mentally undress.

    Not sure they're as hot as my wife though.

    Become a Mormon.
    Just rereading O'Brian's HMS Surprise. Reminded that Dr Maturin recommended the radical ablation of the peccant member and its accessories. Also worked wonders for the temperament.
    ‘Do you follow me, Dr Maturin?’

    ‘I do indeed, sir, and am much obliged to you for your candor in telling me this: it confirms what was in my mind and I shall do all I can to make him conscious of the delicacy of his position. Though upon my word,’ he added with a sigh, ‘there are times when it seems to me that nothing short of a radical ablation of the membrum virile would answer, in this case.’

    ‘That is very generally the peccant part,’ said Mr Florey.
    That is indeed the bit in HMS Surprise.

    I think there was also another episode in a later book where he lauded the effects of castration specifically. Made folk much easier to live with, and so on.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,575
    geoffw said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Anyone who said yes to any of those questions is racist and quasi-fash and should be written off.
    That's 40% of the country. About 25-30 million people

    "write them off"

    How about addressing migration and asylum and integration, with firmness and fairness and bringing both migration and asylum down dramatically, so the public feels at peace and secure, and we don't turn into Nazi Germany? How about doing that?
    I call bullshit that it is 40% of the country.
    Yes, it doesn't match with the 7% approval of people who did actually attack and threaten migrants.

    I suspect it's people talking tough but horrified when they actually see it.
    When people respond to this kind of poll they may be trying to send a message rather than telling the honest truth. They know politicians read the polling. It's like the observer effect in physics (where the act of observation alters the behaviour of the system).

    So now we’re back to talking about cats again.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,809

    Carnyx said:

    I'm at a boutique family hotel and the number of hot yummy mummies is off the scale. They all have kids called Alfie and Oscar and call the evening meal "supper" - you get the picture.

    Yes, I'm happily married but boy oh boy are they hot. They take care of themselves and know how to dress - such that one can easily mentally undress.

    Not sure they're as hot as my wife though.

    Become a Mormon.
    Just rereading O'Brian's HMS Surprise. Reminded that Dr Maturin recommended the radical ablation of the peccant member and its accessories. Also worked wonders for the temperament.
    I can't remember, was that before or after he met and fell in love with Diana Villiers? It would certainly have saved him a deal of pain and trouble, but deprived readers of a lot of engagement with the books.
    Before, or at least the quote brought up by Viewcode is. Not sure about the testicles bit (one does worry about one's memory but is it because one frets more as one gets older?).
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,775
    Sandpit said:

    geoffw said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Anyone who said yes to any of those questions is racist and quasi-fash and should be written off.
    That's 40% of the country. About 25-30 million people

    "write them off"

    How about addressing migration and asylum and integration, with firmness and fairness and bringing both migration and asylum down dramatically, so the public feels at peace and secure, and we don't turn into Nazi Germany? How about doing that?
    I call bullshit that it is 40% of the country.
    Yes, it doesn't match with the 7% approval of people who did actually attack and threaten migrants.

    I suspect it's people talking tough but horrified when they actually see it.
    When people respond to this kind of poll they may be trying to send a message rather than telling the honest truth. They know politicians read the polling. It's like the observer effect in physics (where the act of observation alters the behaviour of the system).

    So now we’re back to talking about cats again.
    I blame you...

    https://x.com/AMAZlNGNATURE/status/1822950394571456906

    But this is like me and my cat. Only in my version I surrender, pet her, then give her a bowl full of tuna.
  • Sandpit said:

    geoffw said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Anyone who said yes to any of those questions is racist and quasi-fash and should be written off.
    That's 40% of the country. About 25-30 million people

    "write them off"

    How about addressing migration and asylum and integration, with firmness and fairness and bringing both migration and asylum down dramatically, so the public feels at peace and secure, and we don't turn into Nazi Germany? How about doing that?
    I call bullshit that it is 40% of the country.
    Yes, it doesn't match with the 7% approval of people who did actually attack and threaten migrants.

    I suspect it's people talking tough but horrified when they actually see it.
    When people respond to this kind of poll they may be trying to send a message rather than telling the honest truth. They know politicians read the polling. It's like the observer effect in physics (where the act of observation alters the behaviour of the system).

    So now we’re back to talking about cats again.
    Leon would approve though as its talking about poisoning cats.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,348

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Can you not understand how it has happened? How we have reached this appalling state of affairs?

    Britons have consistently voted for much much lower migration for decades, and it has never happened. No government has delivered it. The brexit vote itself was a cry of pain, from many, on this issue. And AGAIN it was ignored, indeed the stupid Tories TRIPLED immigration

    All that plus the boats, and various integration problems, many of them horrendous

    You and I both revile these answers, I cannot wrap my head around them, but they tell us we need - finally - to actually do what the public wants. Get migration down under 100,000. Stop the boats. We cannot wish this polling away with fainting fits
    If you get migration down to under 100,000 then this country collapses. Do you not get this? The asylum seeker numbers are tiny compared to legal migration and the legal migration numbers are where they are because we NEED those people.

    Whether they come from India or Poland, it doesn't matter. We NEED the immigration just to keep the country, and particularly our NHS and social care, running. If you want someone to wipe your arse in a decade when you are drooling in a bath chair then you, personally, NEED those immigrants. If you want someone to try and fix that alcohol raddled liver and deal with your terminal flatulance then you NEED those immigrants.

    There are many things we and the politicians can do to improve integration - as I have said before, look at Norway - but we won't do them as long as we see immigration as a curse rather than a necessity and a benefit.



    I welcome migrants, but we don't NEED anyone, its a choice to have people or not. I'm in favour of the choice of welcoming people, but its not a problem if we don't.

    We don't NEED migrants to wipe people's arses, that's a myth, 81% of people working in care are British citizens, the idea they're all migrants is a complete myth.

    If we're going to welcome people to this country, and I think we should, we should be preferably welcoming more who are highly skilled over low skilled - but either way we need to build considerably more houses and other infrastructure too.
    Just as a random question, but why is it better to have highly-skilled immigrants take high-paying jobs in the British economy while British-born people take the low-paid menial jobs to serve them coffee and pick their supermarket orders?

    I don't see why that is preferable in particular.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Tres said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Good point.

    My first response to that poll was thinking I hope its dodgy, and the lack of any DK etc is an indicator of it being dodgy.

    Who exactly are "We think" - I've never heard of them before.
    They are members of the BPC and @Benpointer has been quoting them all week as they had the first post-election VI polls
    If they're members of the BPC then where are the data tables, because options never add up to 100% without excluding some data.

    I call bullshit.
    They are members of the BPC. Scroll down

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    That isn't what I said.

    So where are the data tables?
    WHERE IS VOTING INTENTION.
    we just had a general election, pollsters are off doing more interesting things
    Like trying to figure out why their voting intention polling was so shite?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,809
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Can you not understand how it has happened? How we have reached this appalling state of affairs?

    Britons have consistently voted for much much lower migration for decades, and it has never happened. No government has delivered it. The brexit vote itself was a cry of pain, from many, on this issue. And AGAIN it was ignored, indeed the stupid Tories TRIPLED immigration

    All that plus the boats, and various integration problems, many of them horrendous

    You and I both revile these answers, I cannot wrap my head around them, but they tell us we need - finally - to actually do what the public wants. Get migration down under 100,000. Stop the boats. We cannot wish this polling away with fainting fits
    If you get migration down to under 100,000 then this country collapses. Do you not get this? The asylum seeker numbers are tiny compared to legal migration and the legal migration numbers are where they are because we NEED those people.

    Whether they come from India or Poland, it doesn't matter. We NEED the immigration just to keep the country, and particularly our NHS and social care, running. If you want someone to wipe your arse in a decade when you are drooling in a bath chair then you, personally, NEED those immigrants. If you want someone to try and fix that alcohol raddled liver and deal with your terminal flatulance then you NEED those immigrants.

    There are many things we and the politicians can do to improve integration - as I have said before, look at Norway - but we won't do them as long as we see immigration as a curse rather than a necessity and a benefit.



    Why didn't the country collapse before 1997 when we had very low levels of immigration?
    Because they were defined as British at the time? Windrush and all that (that is exactly what it says on the passenger manifest/immigration document, which I looked up for a friend to find his dad in it).

    Also different age structure; people dying earlier ...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Can you not understand how it has happened? How we have reached this appalling state of affairs?

    Britons have consistently voted for much much lower migration for decades, and it has never happened. No government has delivered it. The brexit vote itself was a cry of pain, from many, on this issue. And AGAIN it was ignored, indeed the stupid Tories TRIPLED immigration

    All that plus the boats, and various integration problems, many of them horrendous

    You and I both revile these answers, I cannot wrap my head around them, but they tell us we need - finally - to actually do what the public wants. Get migration down under 100,000. Stop the boats. We cannot wish this polling away with fainting fits
    If you get migration down to under 100,000 then this country collapses. Do you not get this? The asylum seeker numbers are tiny compared to legal migration and the legal migration numbers are where they are because we NEED those people.

    Whether they come from India or Poland, it doesn't matter. We NEED the immigration just to keep the country, and particularly our NHS and social care, running. If you want someone to wipe your arse in a decade when you are drooling in a bath chair then you, personally, NEED those immigrants. If you want someone to try and fix that alcohol raddled liver and deal with your terminal flatulance then you NEED those immigrants.

    There are many things we and the politicians can do to improve integration - as I have said before, look at Norway - but we won't do them as long as we see immigration as a curse rather than a necessity and a benefit.



    I welcome migrants, but we don't NEED anyone, its a choice to have people or not. I'm in favour of the choice of welcoming people, but its not a problem if we don't.

    We don't NEED migrants to wipe people's arses, that's a myth, 81% of people working in care are British citizens, the idea they're all migrants is a complete myth.

    If we're going to welcome people to this country, and I think we should, we should be preferably welcoming more who are highly skilled over low skilled - but either way we need to build considerably more houses and other infrastructure too.
    Just as a random question, but why is it better to have highly-skilled immigrants take high-paying jobs in the British economy while British-born people take the low-paid menial jobs to serve them coffee and pick their supermarket orders?

    I don't see why that is preferable in particular.
    Who was claiming it was preferable?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Well, if 30% of respondents didn't give an answer that would cut the number to a sixth*, as it is we just don't know. I also suspect the red-green was chosen for (melo)dramatic reasons.

    *number plucked from my arse
    We are missing the point.

    Which is where the **** is VI? There's all sorts of polling going - have we just forgotten to ask people how they plan to vote?
    I suspect there's no funding for it this far away from any potential GE.
    Voting intention polls typically start days after the general election. And this poll (and others) clearly established previous voting, so what 'funding' is needed to add voting intention?
    Not necessarily; there were no polls in the four weeks after the 2019 GE. I think it depends on how close the election was. There were quite a few polls after the 2017 and 2010 GEs but both of those left open the possibility of another GE in quick succession.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    A respected pollster has messaged me to say Matt Goodwin would be embarrassed to ask those questions that We Think have asked.

    Here's an example.

    'When it comes to the REFUGEE PROBLEM violence is sometimes the only means that citizens have to get the attention of British politicians.'

    The pollster is telling the respondent that there is a problem. A good polling question should be neutral.

    Some of the other questions are similarly loaded.

    You will get a much different answer to the question 'Is it acceptable to commit violence against refugees?'

    I concur that looks like a dodgy question, but some of the others do not

    eg

    "Hostility against refugees is sometimes justified, even if it ends up in violence"

    If anything I'd say that is loaded somewhat against Agreement, as it sounds so awful. And yet 32% of people Agreed. I would have expected 3-5%

    Also

    "Xenophobic acts of violence are defensible, if they result in fewer refugees being settled in your town"

    36% Agree
  • Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Can you not understand how it has happened? How we have reached this appalling state of affairs?

    Britons have consistently voted for much much lower migration for decades, and it has never happened. No government has delivered it. The brexit vote itself was a cry of pain, from many, on this issue. And AGAIN it was ignored, indeed the stupid Tories TRIPLED immigration

    All that plus the boats, and various integration problems, many of them horrendous

    You and I both revile these answers, I cannot wrap my head around them, but they tell us we need - finally - to actually do what the public wants. Get migration down under 100,000. Stop the boats. We cannot wish this polling away with fainting fits
    If you get migration down to under 100,000 then this country collapses. Do you not get this? The asylum seeker numbers are tiny compared to legal migration and the legal migration numbers are where they are because we NEED those people.

    Whether they come from India or Poland, it doesn't matter. We NEED the immigration just to keep the country, and particularly our NHS and social care, running. If you want someone to wipe your arse in a decade when you are drooling in a bath chair then you, personally, NEED those immigrants. If you want someone to try and fix that alcohol raddled liver and deal with your terminal flatulance then you NEED those immigrants.

    There are many things we and the politicians can do to improve integration - as I have said before, look at Norway - but we won't do them as long as we see immigration as a curse rather than a necessity and a benefit.



    I welcome migrants, but we don't NEED anyone, its a choice to have people or not. I'm in favour of the choice of welcoming people, but its not a problem if we don't.

    We don't NEED migrants to wipe people's arses, that's a myth, 81% of people working in care are British citizens, the idea they're all migrants is a complete myth.

    If we're going to welcome people to this country, and I think we should, we should be preferably welcoming more who are highly skilled over low skilled - but either way we need to build considerably more houses and other infrastructure too.
    Just as a random question, but why is it better to have highly-skilled immigrants take high-paying jobs in the British economy while British-born people take the low-paid menial jobs to serve them coffee and pick their supermarket orders?

    I don't see why that is preferable in particular.
    Because there isn't a finite supply of skilled or unskilled jobs. That's why we have universal education.

    Extra skills is a good thing and leads to economic growth and unlocking new potential. Boosting our pool of unskilled workers does not.

    We already have people leaving school in this country without skills, that's not a good thing, but we don't need to go out of our way to add more - nor should we be deciding that unskilled workers is a good thing and cutting our education budget either.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,809
    edited August 12
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    The natural resonance of views like that should be between 8-15% of the population, max.

    The fact it's now between 30-35% should be of grave concern to all, and an indication something is seriously wrong.

    The most likely response is simply that a bigger proportion of the population simply gets written off as racist and quasi-fash, and everything continues precisely as before.

    Before we make generalisations about the general population, what are the number for DKs/did not say?
    Surely those are questions for which even 'don't know' should be an unacceptable response. I see no way to emiliorate or mitigate those numbers. The idea that a third of our citizens think it is acceptable to attack refugees to get the attention of polticians is mind blowing.

    Can you not understand how it has happened? How we have reached this appalling state of affairs?

    Britons have consistently voted for much much lower migration for decades, and it has never happened. No government has delivered it. The brexit vote itself was a cry of pain, from many, on this issue. And AGAIN it was ignored, indeed the stupid Tories TRIPLED immigration

    All that plus the boats, and various integration problems, many of them horrendous

    You and I both revile these answers, I cannot wrap my head around them, but they tell us we need - finally - to actually do what the public wants. Get migration down under 100,000. Stop the boats. We cannot wish this polling away with fainting fits
    If you get migration down to under 100,000 then this country collapses. Do you not get this? The asylum seeker numbers are tiny compared to legal migration and the legal migration numbers are where they are because we NEED those people.

    Whether they come from India or Poland, it doesn't matter. We NEED the immigration just to keep the country, and particularly our NHS and social care, running. If you want someone to wipe your arse in a decade when you are drooling in a bath chair then you, personally, NEED those immigrants. If you want someone to try and fix that alcohol raddled liver and deal with your terminal flatulance then you NEED those immigrants.

    There are many things we and the politicians can do to improve integration - as I have said before, look at Norway - but we won't do them as long as we see immigration as a curse rather than a necessity and a benefit.



    I welcome migrants, but we don't NEED anyone, its a choice to have people or not. I'm in favour of the choice of welcoming people, but its not a problem if we don't.

    We don't NEED migrants to wipe people's arses, that's a myth, 81% of people working in care are British citizens, the idea they're all migrants is a complete myth.

    If we're going to welcome people to this country, and I think we should, we should be preferably welcoming more who are highly skilled over low skilled - but either way we need to build considerably more houses and other infrastructure too.
    Just as a random question, but why is it better to have highly-skilled immigrants take high-paying jobs in the British economy while British-born people take the low-paid menial jobs to serve them coffee and pick their supermarket orders?

    I don't see why that is preferable in particular.
    Who was claiming it was preferable?
    HM Government (last incarnation), certainly by the implication of their actions and fiscal policies. (Purely a factual observation; I'm only looking in briefly.)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,638
    Mars would be a proper deterrent.
This discussion has been closed.