Categories
Kemi Badenoch remains the favourite to succeed Sunak – politicalbetting.com
Kemi Badenoch remains the favourite to succeed Sunak – politicalbetting.com
I still think this is Robert Jenrick’s election to lose but James Cleverly remains a value bet in my view, I have found Tom Tugendhat’s campaign underwhelming and both Cleverly and Mel Stride could pick up the support that people thought would go to Tom Tugendhat.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Now I may not like the guy - and he's trying to all things to all people at the moment but the idea he didn't willingly leave the University of Kent is for the birds - he knows how screwed uni finances are...
So it will be
Cleverly versus
Jenrick or Badenoch
And I suspect the rightwing candidate will win with the members, but I am not sure. Cleverly might do OK
Cameron's career ended with the catastrophe (in his eyes) of Brexit, that is the only thing he will be remembered for; Osborne is only known for the now discredited economics of austerity
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/aug/12/elon-musk-should-face-arrest-if-he-incited-uk-rioters-says-ex-twitter-chief
But actually, it's a pretty cogent argument on how best to leverage what limited capability we have - ie, principally, to procure a lot more missiles for existing platforms.
Regenerating the UK’s Airpower Edge Within NATO
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/regenerating-uks-airpower-edge-within-nato
He adds: “Were Musk to continue stirring up unrest, an arrest warrant for him might produce fireworks from his fingertips, but as an international jet-setter it would have the effect of focusing his mind.”
“Musk’s actions should be a wake-up call for Starmer’s government to quietly legislate to take back control of what we collectively agree is permissible on social media,” he argues.
Daisley says: “The question we are presented with is whether we’re willing to allow a billionaire oligarch to camp off the UK coastline and take potshots at our society. The idea that a boycott – whether by high-profile users or advertisers – should be our only sanction is clearly not meaningful."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_2024_Conservative_Party_leadership_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Conservative_Party_leadership_election#Conservative_party_members
“Her moment” @TIME new cover
Whomever they choose, they're going to have to make some hard choices over the next few years, and any one of Badenoch, Tugendhat, Jenrick etc aren't going to change that.
The idea that they can swing right, pick up the supporters of Reform, and pivot back to the centre to grab votes there, all within an electoral cycle, just doesn't seem a realistic one.
Donny is going to lose his shit when he sees that
That has the potential to shift the dial.
Point is that, even by 1997, all four were hiding in plain sight as Future Top Conservatives.
Who are their equivalents today? Are they in the batch who just made it into the Commons last month, or in the lucky unlucky ones who didn't? Or has the last five years killed them all off?
https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/282737-historic-hillary-victory-a-where-were-you-moment/
47 years later, we have another day on the calendar that I have no doubt will take on similar historic significance – June 7, 2016, the date when Hillary Clinton became the first woman presumptive nominee of a major American political party.
And as far as their campaign is concerned, so far, they've done brilliantly. The first task is always to introduce/define the candidate; that they have succeeded in, beyond anyone's expectations.
They will pivot to policy quite soon, I think.
Cameron created a party that was fiscally sound but socially liberal, as we still see from the ethnicity of those in the current race. It's exactly where I am coming from and want the country to go. Unfortunately, I am not seeing any party which combines those ideas right now. The Lib Dems are probably the closest but they are a bit too NIMBY for my taste.
Could happen. In the same way as a meteor might hit Planet Earth and destroy all civilization.
As for all the other stuff, that was maybe true in 2010 but 2024 is vastly different
What they ought to learn is, don't be incompetent.
I note the authors are "Project 2025" fans. And rather glide over the role of the current Supreme Court in having already started an attempt to dismantle the administrative state.
All in all, a fairly uninformative bit of propaganda.
If they pivot to the right, they do risk losing some support to the LibDems.
"Elon Musk to interview Trump on X social media network"
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/elon-musk-interview-trump-x-social-media-network-2024-08-12/
I'm not saying the Tories should complacemently rely on this, quite the opposite, nonetheless it is plausible
But without the compulsory purchase there won't be the planning permission, and vice versa. The value created is not something they will be depriving current owners of, as without the compulsory purchase, that value will not exist.
You might think that somewhat casuistical, but if it significantly helps the economy, and ameliorates the housing crisis, then I think it a price worth paying.
But the reality is that, like most VPs, Harris has not made a huge impression on the US public over the last 3 years and she wasn't really known outside California before that. She took over from the sitting President in highly problematic circumstances and urgently needed to introduce herself to the public before a fairly imminent election. It is hardly surprising that the Democrats have focused on achieving that in the relatively few weeks since she was selected. They have succeeded beyond their wildest dreams but she also needs some policy substance to seal the deal.
That's a genuine cult; this is a magazine cover.
Edit: I wonder what would happen with optioned land?
Just not 20 - 100 times the current value.
Read the article.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/aug/12/english-councils-buy-green-belt-land
All of Harris and Walz's speeches (and they tend to give the same speech over and over, which I'm not sure is a great idea in the SM age but it's going over well at the moment) are about both their journey of self-actualisation (as you call it) and their policies for the country.
In particular, they have been going big on supporting ordinary people against big corporations. Which is clever positioning given one of the largest, greediest and most avowedly criminal big corp is owned by the Republican candidate.
Whether it will wash is another question given the Dems have their own questions to answer on links to big business. But so far it's playing well
Musk is awkward, he admits he's on the spectrum, he's socially unskilled, he's hesitant and a bit weird (personally, I also think he's a genius, but let's set that aside for now)
He'll be interviewing a raging narcissist with significant cognitive decline and a tendency to lose the plot, or lie absurdly
It might be compelling viewing, but not in the way they hope
What the government is essentially saying is that the green belt no longer exists - but only for them.
The financial model was for many years as follows: an area of countryside was designated as a new town under the act; land was bought from the owners at agricultural prices; the government borrowed to invest in housing, commercial premises, and supporting infrastructure such as sewers, schools, churches or open spaces; and in due course it sold off the commercial premises and part of the housing at developed prices, thus paying off the debt.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_towns_in_the_United_Kingdom
I should add it may not be the worst strategy for them. But that's only because all their potential strategies are dire.
..The government said it wanted to take a “more strategic approach to [greenbelt] land designation”.
The green belt was introduced nationwide in 1947 under the Town and Country Planning Act to prevent urban sprawl and protect areas on the edge of towns and cities from development. It covers 6,300 sq miles, about 13% of England’s area.
Much of the green belt is owned by farmers, with about 65% of all the country’s greenbelt used for agriculture. However, there are some investors who have been prospectively buying up greenbelt land in recent years in the hope that planning rules are loosened.
There are fears that landowners who were holding greenbelt land that had no development value before the changes could now attempt to cash in...
I dislike people saying "I'm on the spectrum!" as a way of self-excusing shitty behaviour. Plenty of people 'on the spectrum' manage to live normal, ordinary lives without being shitty. The chances are many such people would be shitty anyway.
Assuming not, why would the state ever pay other than a very small premium over the market rate?
You bought your Amazon shares at $1 because you thought they'd rise. If everyone else agrees they'll be $2 or more now but if the market price is still $1 that's what the a compulsory purchase price should be. Take your dollar and go and speculate on something else.
Which is the only way our semi-bankrupt local authorities will be able to afford development.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/12/uk-riots-starmer-court-sentencing-southport/
For land it is just the current market value.
In France the standard amount is 1.5x the market value with no cap.
(I'm cautious about optioned land; it can be a barrier to development by small players. At the very least, it needs to be more open, with the deals registered.)
The basic concept - the government is spending too much and taxing too little 1 was right but the execution was disastrous. At best it was a missed opportunity,
He bribed the pensioners, wasted money on pet projects and slashed everything that wasn’t politically protected. The outcome is what we have today.
He should have taken a much more systemic approach to figuring out what the government *should* do and the. *how* to do it. Money should be an output not an input.
I hope beyond all hope that Reeves isn’t a second Osborne
It doesn't matter anyway. I agree with your thesis. This interview has all the ingredients for a trainwreck
Maybe. Very, very maybe.