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Kemi Badenoch remains the favourite to succeed Sunak – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Stereodog said:

    HYUFD said:

    Updated Tory MP declarations of backing for next leader:

    Jenrick 9
    Tugendhat 5
    Stride 5
    Badenoch 5
    Cleverly 4
    Patel 4
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/08/12/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/

    Mel Stride is doing quite well for a complete non entity.
    There are positives to being an unknown blank slate.

    There's something so forgettable about him he could act like he had nothing to do with the last government, Starmer would point out he was a Cabinet Minister in it, and people would not believe it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    You have to admit, it makes total sense. It's probably being retweeted by the official GOP accounts.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Updated Tory MP declarations of backing for next leader:

    Jenrick 9
    Tugendhat 5
    Stride 5
    Badenoch 5
    Cleverly 4
    Patel 4
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/08/12/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/

    So few have declared that we can't really make any judgements from this data.
    Given there are now only 121 Tory MPs left, actually over a quarter of Tory MPs have now declared for a candidate
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 696
    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A depressingly accurate TwiX description of the Britain that awaits us

    "They're going to have China style censorship without any of the perks like fast trains, shiny skyscrapers, and a safe society relatively free of violent crime lol."

    No it isn't.

    Get a bloody grip.
    Feels EXACTLY like that, to me. That is where we are headed
    Thank God you're not a person predisposed to any kind of wild overreaction.
    The correct reaction to the last month in Britain is, unfortunately, deep gloom and bleak pessimism, verging on despair. If anything I is bein' a bit too cheery
    Characteristic bollocks from you, as normal.

    We have seen in the past month an horrific crime, to which the attacker was arrested and charged - and a once-a-decade riot that has seen rioters get arrested and go to jail. Just like in 2011.

    Nothing pessimistic about that, just part and parcel of living in a free society that sometimes crime happens and the criminal justice system has to do its job.

    Meanwhile for the rest of the population life goes on, the Olympics have been entertaining, Britain has won lots of medals - and oh yes, did I mention that life goes on?

    Enjoy the last of the summer weather, because before long it will be autumn and then we'll be heading towards Christmas, with life still going on and these summer riots behind us once more.
    A lot of people still don’t seem to have adjusted to the fact that we have a new government.
    They might think it’s crap, and ignoring the problems that they diagnose (which is an attitude not exactly alien to me too, on occasion), but they need to recognise their views are, for the time being, close to irrelevant.

    That will change in time, but for now Starmer, with his Parliamentary majority, gets to try what he thinks he needs to do. And Leon’s take on that, along with mine, isn’t going to make any difference.
    What is the point of this comment?

    Do I expect my pungent critique of Starmer to topple the government? No. Do I think Labour are already showing signs of utter incompetence mixed with Wokeness plus a total inability to address issues of migration/asylum which will probably wreck them in the end? Yes

    I’m stating that political opinion. That’s what we do on here
    The public are more sensible than we give them credit for. Most people rightly accept that at the moment any problems with migration and asylum are bugger all to do with the new administration. That will and should change as time goes on though.
    I reckon it’s changed already. Because, riots
    I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that people blame the Labour government for those though. I agree that they've heated up the immigration debate which will eventually come back to bite the government. It won't be long but it's not here yet
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A depressingly accurate TwiX description of the Britain that awaits us

    "They're going to have China style censorship without any of the perks like fast trains, shiny skyscrapers, and a safe society relatively free of violent crime lol."

    No it isn't.

    Get a bloody grip.
    Feels EXACTLY like that, to me. That is where we are headed
    Thank God you're not a person predisposed to any kind of wild overreaction.
    The correct reaction to the last month in Britain is, unfortunately, deep gloom and bleak pessimism, verging on despair. If anything I is bein' a bit too cheery
    Characteristic bollocks from you, as normal.

    We have seen in the past month an horrific crime, to which the attacker was arrested and charged - and a once-a-decade riot that has seen rioters get arrested and go to jail. Just like in 2011.

    Nothing pessimistic about that, just part and parcel of living in a free society that sometimes crime happens and the criminal justice system has to do its job.

    Meanwhile for the rest of the population life goes on, the Olympics have been entertaining, Britain has won lots of medals - and oh yes, did I mention that life goes on?

    Enjoy the last of the summer weather, because before long it will be autumn and then we'll be heading towards Christmas, with life still going on and these summer riots behind us once more.
    A lot of people still don’t seem to have adjusted to the fact that we have a new government.
    They might think it’s crap, and ignoring the problems that they diagnose (which is an attitude not exactly alien to me too, on occasion), but they need to recognise their views are, for the time being, close to irrelevant.

    That will change in time, but for now Starmer, with his Parliamentary majority, gets to try what he thinks he needs to do. And Leon’s take on that, along with mine, isn’t going to make any difference.
    What is the point of this comment?

    Do I expect my pungent critique of Starmer to topple the government? No. Do I think Labour are already showing signs of utter incompetence mixed with Wokeness plus a total inability to address issues of migration/asylum which will probably wreck them in the end? Yes

    I’m stating that political opinion. That’s what we do on here
    The public are more sensible than we give them credit for. Most people rightly accept that at the moment any problems with migration and asylum are bugger all to do with the new administration. That will and should change as time goes on though.
    I reckon it’s changed already. Because, riots
    I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that people blame the Labour government for those though. I agree that they've heated up the immigration debate which will eventually come back to bite the government. It won't be long but it's not here yet
    Starmer’s plunging popularity?

    I dunno. We need more polls

    You could be right and the British are in a forgiving and tolerant mood, willing to give Labour time. But it all feels more febrile than that

    However - this may come as a shock - I am the excitable type and could be overdoing it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Updated Tory MP declarations of backing for next leader:

    Jenrick 9
    Tugendhat 5
    Stride 5
    Badenoch 5
    Cleverly 4
    Patel 4
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/08/12/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/

    Anything to glean from the known backers?
    No major surprises, except maybe Nick Timothy for Tugendhat
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Stereodog said:

    HYUFD said:

    Updated Tory MP declarations of backing for next leader:

    Jenrick 9
    Tugendhat 5
    Stride 5
    Badenoch 5
    Cleverly 4
    Patel 4
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/08/12/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/

    Mel Stride is doing quite well for a complete non entity.
    Not the worst campaign slogan.
    They laughed at Jim Hacker….
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    I don’t have a problem with Vance donning drag in college, but this is pretty funny.
    https://x.com/cliffschecter/status/1823038405543907726
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Yup.

    Trump's desperation strategy is clear: get enough states to fail to certify, throw the election to the House. Rs may have a majority of states even if Ds recapture the House.
    https://nitter.poast.org/NormOrnstein/status/1823039747989594351#m
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Foxy said:

    Based on this graphic We Think also appear to be conflating refugees with immigrants.


    Yet the British people think a reduction in immigration in health and social care s a bad thing. Even Conservative and Reform voters.



    To say that Britons are conflicted over immigration is an understatement.
    On that chart about the same number, 2/3, oppose violence against refugees and think a decline in immigrants in health and social care is a bad thing
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Nigelb said:

    Stereodog said:

    HYUFD said:

    Updated Tory MP declarations of backing for next leader:

    Jenrick 9
    Tugendhat 5
    Stride 5
    Badenoch 5
    Cleverly 4
    Patel 4
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/08/12/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/

    Mel Stride is doing quite well for a complete non entity.
    Not the worst campaign slogan.
    They laughed at Jim Hacker….
    That drunk driver who used blackmail to force a career civil servant to lie for him and misused government funds for partisan politics? If only more had laughed at that rogue then supported his terrible leadership.
  • kle4 said:

    Yup.

    Trump's desperation strategy is clear: get enough states to fail to certify, throw the election to the House. Rs may have a majority of states even if Ds recapture the House.
    https://nitter.poast.org/NormOrnstein/status/1823039747989594351#m

    SCOTUS has given Biden immunity in his actions he takes as President.

    Will be interesting if that becomes relevant in November.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    edited August 12
    OT - I think might be some purple in the sky here so those of you in the north might be able to see the aurora tonight.

    Not overhead like a couple of months ago though unless we get another increase in the particle stream.

    Will probably need a long exposure to see the colours.

    See https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    kle4 said:

    Yup.

    Trump's desperation strategy is clear: get enough states to fail to certify, throw the election to the House. Rs may have a majority of states even if Ds recapture the House.
    https://nitter.poast.org/NormOrnstein/status/1823039747989594351#m

    The upside of this fear for the Democrats is that it will prevent any complacency about ‘we have this won’. They’re going to want every last vote.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 696
    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A depressingly accurate TwiX description of the Britain that awaits us

    "They're going to have China style censorship without any of the perks like fast trains, shiny skyscrapers, and a safe society relatively free of violent crime lol."

    No it isn't.

    Get a bloody grip.
    Feels EXACTLY like that, to me. That is where we are headed
    Thank God you're not a person predisposed to any kind of wild overreaction.
    The correct reaction to the last month in Britain is, unfortunately, deep gloom and bleak pessimism, verging on despair. If anything I is bein' a bit too cheery
    Characteristic bollocks from you, as normal.

    We have seen in the past month an horrific crime, to which the attacker was arrested and charged - and a once-a-decade riot that has seen rioters get arrested and go to jail. Just like in 2011.

    Nothing pessimistic about that, just part and parcel of living in a free society that sometimes crime happens and the criminal justice system has to do its job.

    Meanwhile for the rest of the population life goes on, the Olympics have been entertaining, Britain has won lots of medals - and oh yes, did I mention that life goes on?

    Enjoy the last of the summer weather, because before long it will be autumn and then we'll be heading towards Christmas, with life still going on and these summer riots behind us once more.
    A lot of people still don’t seem to have adjusted to the fact that we have a new government.
    They might think it’s crap, and ignoring the problems that they diagnose (which is an attitude not exactly alien to me too, on occasion), but they need to recognise their views are, for the time being, close to irrelevant.

    That will change in time, but for now Starmer, with his Parliamentary majority, gets to try what he thinks he needs to do. And Leon’s take on that, along with mine, isn’t going to make any difference.
    What is the point of this comment?

    Do I expect my pungent critique of Starmer to topple the government? No. Do I think Labour are already showing signs of utter incompetence mixed with Wokeness plus a total inability to address issues of migration/asylum which will probably wreck them in the end? Yes

    I’m stating that political opinion. That’s what we do on here
    The public are more sensible than we give them credit for. Most people rightly accept that at the moment any problems with migration and asylum are bugger all to do with the new administration. That will and should change as time goes on though.
    I reckon it’s changed already. Because, riots
    I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that people blame the Labour government for those though. I agree that they've heated up the immigration debate which will eventually come back to bite the government. It won't be long but it's not here yet
    Starmer’s plunging popularity?

    I dunno. We need more polls

    You could be right and the British are in a forgiving and tolerant mood, willing to give Labour time. But it all feels more febrile than that

    However - this may come as a shock - I am the excitable type and could be overdoing it
    You can be wonderfully disarming sometimes. I don't think the public are in a forgiving mood but they're not stupid and at the moment they're not turning their anger on the government as much as other groups and institutions. It's an ugly mood and bodes ill for the government in the long term unless they can miraculously get a grip on immigration and public services
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    edited August 12
    A few nights ago I posted that Iran had managed to create a lot of uncertainty around the when, what and how of a direct attack on Israel. Reports out the US and more recently from Israel have talked of 'imminent' for a week or more. The latest from US sources to the media is any time up to Thursday.

    And yet not a shot has flown across the air. The reason for the collective shrug is actually fairly simple. Iran has been prepping for a possible attack for months so its been doing little steps leaving less obvious signs. Its proven pretty successful.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    kle4 said:

    Yup.

    Trump's desperation strategy is clear: get enough states to fail to certify, throw the election to the House. Rs may have a majority of states even if Ds recapture the House.
    https://nitter.poast.org/NormOrnstein/status/1823039747989594351#m

    SCOTUS has given Biden immunity in his actions he takes as President.

    Will be interesting if that becomes relevant in November.
    One thing I assume he will do is pardon Hunter on his last day in office. Sure, he said he wouldn't and he may have even meant it at the time, but that was when he was intending to continue as President.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 696
    kle4 said:

    Stereodog said:

    HYUFD said:

    Updated Tory MP declarations of backing for next leader:

    Jenrick 9
    Tugendhat 5
    Stride 5
    Badenoch 5
    Cleverly 4
    Patel 4
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/08/12/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/

    Mel Stride is doing quite well for a complete non entity.
    There are positives to being an unknown blank slate.

    There's something so forgettable about him he could act like he had nothing to do with the last government, Starmer would point out he was a Cabinet Minister in it, and people would not believe it.
    I remember him from the loan charge controversy but yes you have a point. His stint at the Treasury Committee is probably the best point on his CV
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Leon said:

    A depressingly accurate TwiX description of the Britain that awaits us

    "They're going to have China style censorship without any of the perks like fast trains, shiny skyscrapers, and a safe society relatively free of violent crime lol."

    Although less concentration camps, so it's a bit swings and roundabouts
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Yup.

    Trump's desperation strategy is clear: get enough states to fail to certify, throw the election to the House. Rs may have a majority of states even if Ds recapture the House.
    https://nitter.poast.org/NormOrnstein/status/1823039747989594351#m

    The upside of this fear for the Democrats is that it will prevent any complacency about ‘we have this won’. They’re going to want every last vote.
    They need to win big. There are more people in place who might be willing to refuse to certify this time around, but if the results are not that close and lawsuits tossed out it will be tougher for some of those to hold firm to the plan (and that's not a conspiracy, there are elected people who have said they would not have certified results last time), than if it is on a knife edge and there are a few irregularities to hinge it on. Ignoring a 10 pt winning margin because maybe 10 votes went missing in a county in rural Pennsylvania would be hard to self justify.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 696
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    A depressingly accurate TwiX description of the Britain that awaits us

    "They're going to have China style censorship without any of the perks like fast trains, shiny skyscrapers, and a safe society relatively free of violent crime lol."

    Although less concentration camps, so it's a bit swings and roundabouts
    That would be one way of meeting housing targets I suppose.
  • vinovino Posts: 169
    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A depressingly accurate TwiX description of the Britain that awaits us

    "They're going to have China style censorship without any of the perks like fast trains, shiny skyscrapers, and a safe society relatively free of violent crime lol."

    No it isn't.

    Get a bloody grip.
    Feels EXACTLY like that, to me. That is where we are headed
    Thank God you're not a person predisposed to any kind of wild overreaction.
    The correct reaction to the last month in Britain is, unfortunately, deep gloom and bleak pessimism, verging on despair. If anything I is bein' a bit too cheery
    Characteristic bollocks from you, as normal.

    We have seen in the past month an horrific crime, to which the attacker was arrested and charged - and a once-a-decade riot that has seen rioters get arrested and go to jail. Just like in 2011.

    Nothing pessimistic about that, just part and parcel of living in a free society that sometimes crime happens and the criminal justice system has to do its job.

    Meanwhile for the rest of the population life goes on, the Olympics have been entertaining, Britain has won lots of medals - and oh yes, did I mention that life goes on?

    Enjoy the last of the summer weather, because before long it will be autumn and then we'll be heading towards Christmas, with life still going on and these summer riots behind us once more.
    A lot of people still don’t seem to have adjusted to the fact that we have a new government.
    They might think it’s crap, and ignoring the problems that they diagnose (which is an attitude not exactly alien to me too, on occasion), but they need to recognise their views are, for the time being, close to irrelevant.

    That will change in time, but for now Starmer, with his Parliamentary majority, gets to try what he thinks he needs to do. And Leon’s take on that, along with mine, isn’t going to make any difference.
    What is the point of this comment?

    Do I expect my pungent critique of Starmer to topple the government? No. Do I think Labour are already showing signs of utter incompetence mixed with Wokeness plus a total inability to address issues of migration/asylum which will probably wreck them in the end? Yes

    I’m stating that political opinion. That’s what we do on here
    The public are more sensible than we give them credit for. Most people rightly accept that at the moment any problems with migration and asylum are bugger all to do with the new administration. That will and should change as time goes on though.
    I reckon it’s changed already. Because, riots
    I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that people blame the Labour government for those though. I agree that they've heated up the immigration debate which will eventually come back to bite the government. It won't be long but it's not here yet
    Disagree - most people know SKS abandoned the Rwanda scheme on July 5th saying it was "dead and buried" so I think it's only fair to say that most voters assume SKS is responsible for immigration since that date.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    "Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt

    I don't see how anyone can find anything interesting to say about the American election. It's childlike in its simplicity: Goodies versus baddies, joy versus hate. It makes Star Wars look morally nuanced."

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1821913086921425213
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    HYUFD said:

    Updated Tory MP declarations of backing for next leader:

    Jenrick 9
    Tugendhat 5
    Stride 5
    Badenoch 5
    Cleverly 4
    Patel 4
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/08/12/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/

    Wiki says

    Jenrick 9
    Tugendhat 5
    Stride 6
    Badenoch 6
    Cleverly 4
    Patel 4

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_2024_Conservative_Party_leadership_election
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited August 12
    kle4 said:

    Yup.

    Trump's desperation strategy is clear: get enough states to fail to certify, throw the election to the House. Rs may have a majority of states even if Ds recapture the House.
    https://nitter.poast.org/NormOrnstein/status/1823039747989594351#m

    Won't work this time as the VP calls out the electoral college result as President of the Senate and Harris is VP
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Stride's beginning to look like a good trading bet. If he keeps this up his odds will narrow.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt

    I don't see how anyone can find anything interesting to say about the American election. It's childlike in its simplicity: Goodies versus baddies, joy versus hate. It makes Star Wars look morally nuanced."

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1821913086921425213

    An uncharacteristically calm and measured, accurate comment from Dunt rather the the sweary melodrama he usually goes for.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Yup.

    Trump's desperation strategy is clear: get enough states to fail to certify, throw the election to the House. Rs may have a majority of states even if Ds recapture the House.
    https://nitter.poast.org/NormOrnstein/status/1823039747989594351#m

    Won't work this time as the VP calls out the electoral college result and Harris is VP
    I think the idea is to work it a step earlier - have some states not even send votes to the House in the first place. So the VP wouldn't have them to count.

    Might have Democrats sending in their own 'electors' this time!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A depressingly accurate TwiX description of the Britain that awaits us

    "They're going to have China style censorship without any of the perks like fast trains, shiny skyscrapers, and a safe society relatively free of violent crime lol."

    No it isn't.

    Get a bloody grip.
    Feels EXACTLY like that, to me. That is where we are headed
    Thank God you're not a person predisposed to any kind of wild overreaction.
    The correct reaction to the last month in Britain is, unfortunately, deep gloom and bleak pessimism, verging on despair. If anything I is bein' a bit too cheery
    Characteristic bollocks from you, as normal.

    We have seen in the past month an horrific crime, to which the attacker was arrested and charged - and a once-a-decade riot that has seen rioters get arrested and go to jail. Just like in 2011.

    Nothing pessimistic about that, just part and parcel of living in a free society that sometimes crime happens and the criminal justice system has to do its job.

    Meanwhile for the rest of the population life goes on, the Olympics have been entertaining, Britain has won lots of medals - and oh yes, did I mention that life goes on?

    Enjoy the last of the summer weather, because before long it will be autumn and then we'll be heading towards Christmas, with life still going on and these summer riots behind us once more.
    A lot of people still don’t seem to have adjusted to the fact that we have a new government.
    They might think it’s crap, and ignoring the problems that they diagnose (which is an attitude not exactly alien to me too, on occasion), but they need to recognise their views are, for the time being, close to irrelevant.

    That will change in time, but for now Starmer, with his Parliamentary majority, gets to try what he thinks he needs to do. And Leon’s take on that, along with mine, isn’t going to make any difference.
    What is the point of this comment?

    Do I expect my pungent critique of Starmer to topple the government? No. Do I think Labour are already showing signs of utter incompetence mixed with Wokeness plus a total inability to address issues of migration/asylum which will probably wreck them in the end? Yes

    I’m stating that political opinion. That’s what we do on here
    The public are more sensible than we give them credit for. Most people rightly accept that at the moment any problems with migration and asylum are bugger all to do with the new administration. That will and should change as time goes on though.
    I reckon it’s changed already. Because, riots
    I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that people blame the Labour government for those though. I agree that they've heated up the immigration debate which will eventually come back to bite the government. It won't be long but it's not here yet
    Starmer’s plunging popularity?

    I dunno. We need more polls

    You could be right and the British are in a forgiving and tolerant mood, willing to give Labour time. But it all feels more febrile than that

    However - this may come as a shock - I am the excitable type and could be overdoing it
    You can be wonderfully disarming sometimes. I don't think the public are in a forgiving mood but they're not stupid and at the moment they're not turning their anger on the government as much as other groups and institutions. It's an ugly mood and bodes ill for the government in the long term unless they can miraculously get a grip on immigration and public services
    Apparently - Telegraph - Starmer is refusing to give a speech on immigration. As that would “legitimise concerns”. This feels like a howling error - polls already show immigration has shot to the number 1 issue and it might all get worse - and the PM simply ignores it? Deeply, deeply foolish

    He takes the knee for BLM riots but won’t legitimise concerns on the public’s number 1 issue with a speech

    I’m sure he didn’t want to spend his first 6 months addressing migration and the boats but I don’t think he now has much choice
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 696

    Stereodog said:

    HYUFD said:

    Updated Tory MP declarations of backing for next leader:

    Jenrick 9
    Tugendhat 5
    Stride 5
    Badenoch 5
    Cleverly 4
    Patel 4
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/08/12/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/

    Mel Stride is doing quite well for a complete non entity.
    Not the worst campaign slogan.
    Mel Stride "Not quite the worst"
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 696
    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A depressingly accurate TwiX description of the Britain that awaits us

    "They're going to have China style censorship without any of the perks like fast trains, shiny skyscrapers, and a safe society relatively free of violent crime lol."

    No it isn't.

    Get a bloody grip.
    Feels EXACTLY like that, to me. That is where we are headed
    Thank God you're not a person predisposed to any kind of wild overreaction.
    The correct reaction to the last month in Britain is, unfortunately, deep gloom and bleak pessimism, verging on despair. If anything I is bein' a bit too cheery
    Characteristic bollocks from you, as normal.

    We have seen in the past month an horrific crime, to which the attacker was arrested and charged - and a once-a-decade riot that has seen rioters get arrested and go to jail. Just like in 2011.

    Nothing pessimistic about that, just part and parcel of living in a free society that sometimes crime happens and the criminal justice system has to do its job.

    Meanwhile for the rest of the population life goes on, the Olympics have been entertaining, Britain has won lots of medals - and oh yes, did I mention that life goes on?

    Enjoy the last of the summer weather, because before long it will be autumn and then we'll be heading towards Christmas, with life still going on and these summer riots behind us once more.
    A lot of people still don’t seem to have adjusted to the fact that we have a new government.
    They might think it’s crap, and ignoring the problems that they diagnose (which is an attitude not exactly alien to me too, on occasion), but they need to recognise their views are, for the time being, close to irrelevant.

    That will change in time, but for now Starmer, with his Parliamentary majority, gets to try what he thinks he needs to do. And Leon’s take on that, along with mine, isn’t going to make any difference.
    What is the point of this comment?

    Do I expect my pungent critique of Starmer to topple the government? No. Do I think Labour are already showing signs of utter incompetence mixed with Wokeness plus a total inability to address issues of migration/asylum which will probably wreck them in the end? Yes

    I’m stating that political opinion. That’s what we do on here
    The public are more sensible than we give them credit for. Most people rightly accept that at the moment any problems with migration and asylum are bugger all to do with the new administration. That will and should change as time goes on though.
    I reckon it’s changed already. Because, riots
    I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that people blame the Labour government for those though. I agree that they've heated up the immigration debate which will eventually come back to bite the government. It won't be long but it's not here yet
    Starmer’s plunging popularity?

    I dunno. We need more polls

    You could be right and the British are in a forgiving and tolerant mood, willing to give Labour time. But it all feels more febrile than that

    However - this may come as a shock - I am the excitable type and could be overdoing it
    You can be wonderfully disarming sometimes. I don't think the public are in a forgiving mood but they're not stupid and at the moment they're not turning their anger on the government as much as other groups and institutions. It's an ugly mood and bodes ill for the government in the long term unless they can miraculously get a grip on immigration and public services
    Apparently - Telegraph - Starmer is refusing to give a speech on immigration. As that would “legitimise concerns”. This feels like a howling error - polls already show immigration has shot to the number 1 issue and it might all get worse - and the PM simply ignores it? Deeply, deeply foolish

    He takes the knee for BLM riots but won’t legitimise concerns on the public’s number 1 issue with a speech

    I’m sure he didn’t want to spend his first 6 months addressing migration and the boats but I don’t think he now has much choice
    I think that line worked in the immediate aftermath of the riots but I agree it won't wash for long.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    @benrileysmith
    ·
    2h
    Exclusive

    Keir Starmer and Italian PM Georgia Meloni are working together to make the EU’s police force focus on tackling illegal migration.

    They privately discussed reforms to Europol - including an entire mandate change - at Blenheim Palace on July 18.
    https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1823103041505271941
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Stereodog said:

    Stereodog said:

    HYUFD said:

    Updated Tory MP declarations of backing for next leader:

    Jenrick 9
    Tugendhat 5
    Stride 5
    Badenoch 5
    Cleverly 4
    Patel 4
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/08/12/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/

    Mel Stride is doing quite well for a complete non entity.
    Not the worst campaign slogan.
    Mel Stride "Not quite the worst"
    "Perfectly acceptable under the circumstances"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited August 12
    Damn, the ‘best’ Fringe jokes are awful.
    @ydoethur would be ashamed of these.
    https://www.theguardian.com/stage/article/2024/aug/12/10-funniest-jokes-edinburgh-fringe-2024

    (Though very last one is OK.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Yup.

    Trump's desperation strategy is clear: get enough states to fail to certify, throw the election to the House. Rs may have a majority of states even if Ds recapture the House.
    https://nitter.poast.org/NormOrnstein/status/1823039747989594351#m

    Won't work this time as the VP calls out the electoral college result and Harris is VP
    I think the idea is to work it a step earlier - have some states not even send votes to the House in the first place. So the VP wouldn't have them to count.

    Might have Democrats sending in their own 'electors' this time!
    The VP would just count the votes that have come in and declare herself the winner
  • Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A depressingly accurate TwiX description of the Britain that awaits us

    "They're going to have China style censorship without any of the perks like fast trains, shiny skyscrapers, and a safe society relatively free of violent crime lol."

    No it isn't.

    Get a bloody grip.
    Feels EXACTLY like that, to me. That is where we are headed
    Thank God you're not a person predisposed to any kind of wild overreaction.
    The correct reaction to the last month in Britain is, unfortunately, deep gloom and bleak pessimism, verging on despair. If anything I is bein' a bit too cheery
    Characteristic bollocks from you, as normal.

    We have seen in the past month an horrific crime, to which the attacker was arrested and charged - and a once-a-decade riot that has seen rioters get arrested and go to jail. Just like in 2011.

    Nothing pessimistic about that, just part and parcel of living in a free society that sometimes crime happens and the criminal justice system has to do its job.

    Meanwhile for the rest of the population life goes on, the Olympics have been entertaining, Britain has won lots of medals - and oh yes, did I mention that life goes on?

    Enjoy the last of the summer weather, because before long it will be autumn and then we'll be heading towards Christmas, with life still going on and these summer riots behind us once more.
    A lot of people still don’t seem to have adjusted to the fact that we have a new government.
    They might think it’s crap, and ignoring the problems that they diagnose (which is an attitude not exactly alien to me too, on occasion), but they need to recognise their views are, for the time being, close to irrelevant.

    That will change in time, but for now Starmer, with his Parliamentary majority, gets to try what he thinks he needs to do. And Leon’s take on that, along with mine, isn’t going to make any difference.
    What is the point of this comment?

    Do I expect my pungent critique of Starmer to topple the government? No. Do I think Labour are already showing signs of utter incompetence mixed with Wokeness plus a total inability to address issues of migration/asylum which will probably wreck them in the end? Yes

    I’m stating that political opinion. That’s what we do on here
    The public are more sensible than we give them credit for. Most people rightly accept that at the moment any problems with migration and asylum are bugger all to do with the new administration. That will and should change as time goes on though.
    I reckon it’s changed already. Because, riots
    I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that people blame the Labour government for those though. I agree that they've heated up the immigration debate which will eventually come back to bite the government. It won't be long but it's not here yet
    Starmer’s plunging popularity?

    I dunno. We need more polls

    You could be right and the British are in a forgiving and tolerant mood, willing to give Labour time. But it all feels more febrile than that

    However - this may come as a shock - I am the excitable type and could be overdoing it
    You can be wonderfully disarming sometimes. I don't think the public are in a forgiving mood but they're not stupid and at the moment they're not turning their anger on the government as much as other groups and institutions. It's an ugly mood and bodes ill for the government in the long term unless they can miraculously get a grip on immigration and public services
    Apparently - Telegraph - Starmer is refusing to give a speech on immigration. As that would “legitimise concerns”. This feels like a howling error - polls already show immigration has shot to the number 1 issue and it might all get worse - and the PM simply ignores it? Deeply, deeply foolish

    He takes the knee for BLM riots but won’t legitimise concerns on the public’s number 1 issue with a speech

    I’m sure he didn’t want to spend his first 6 months addressing migration and the boats but I don’t think he now has much choice
    Of course he has a choice.

    He can choose to let the criminal justice system do its job, jail the rioters, and then put this whole nonsense into the rear view mirror at which point it will blow away as fast as it blew up.

    Just because you're obsessed with this doesn't mean everyone else shares your obsession.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    On and on and on


    BREAKING: Boy rushed to hospital after getting stabbed in Manchester city centre

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1823103911261069569?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • Nigelb said:

    Damn, the ‘best’ Fringe jokes are awful.
    @ydoethur would be ashamed of these.
    https://www.theguardian.com/stage/article/2024/aug/12/10-funniest-jokes-edinburgh-fringe-2024

    (Though very last one is OK.)

    The first and third on the list both amused me.

    The rest, not so much.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A depressingly accurate TwiX description of the Britain that awaits us

    "They're going to have China style censorship without any of the perks like fast trains, shiny skyscrapers, and a safe society relatively free of violent crime lol."

    No it isn't.

    Get a bloody grip.
    Feels EXACTLY like that, to me. That is where we are headed
    Thank God you're not a person predisposed to any kind of wild overreaction.
    The correct reaction to the last month in Britain is, unfortunately, deep gloom and bleak pessimism, verging on despair. If anything I is bein' a bit too cheery
    Characteristic bollocks from you, as normal.

    We have seen in the past month an horrific crime, to which the attacker was arrested and charged - and a once-a-decade riot that has seen rioters get arrested and go to jail. Just like in 2011.

    Nothing pessimistic about that, just part and parcel of living in a free society that sometimes crime happens and the criminal justice system has to do its job.

    Meanwhile for the rest of the population life goes on, the Olympics have been entertaining, Britain has won lots of medals - and oh yes, did I mention that life goes on?

    Enjoy the last of the summer weather, because before long it will be autumn and then we'll be heading towards Christmas, with life still going on and these summer riots behind us once more.
    A lot of people still don’t seem to have adjusted to the fact that we have a new government.
    They might think it’s crap, and ignoring the problems that they diagnose (which is an attitude not exactly alien to me too, on occasion), but they need to recognise their views are, for the time being, close to irrelevant.

    That will change in time, but for now Starmer, with his Parliamentary majority, gets to try what he thinks he needs to do. And Leon’s take on that, along with mine, isn’t going to make any difference.
    What is the point of this comment?

    Do I expect my pungent critique of Starmer to topple the government? No. Do I think Labour are already showing signs of utter incompetence mixed with Wokeness plus a total inability to address issues of migration/asylum which will probably wreck them in the end? Yes

    I’m stating that political opinion. That’s what we do on here
    The public are more sensible than we give them credit for. Most people rightly accept that at the moment any problems with migration and asylum are bugger all to do with the new administration. That will and should change as time goes on though.
    I reckon it’s changed already. Because, riots
    I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that people blame the Labour government for those though. I agree that they've heated up the immigration debate which will eventually come back to bite the government. It won't be long but it's not here yet
    Starmer’s plunging popularity?

    I dunno. We need more polls

    You could be right and the British are in a forgiving and tolerant mood, willing to give Labour time. But it all feels more febrile than that

    However - this may come as a shock - I am the excitable type and could be overdoing it
    You can be wonderfully disarming sometimes. I don't think the public are in a forgiving mood but they're not stupid and at the moment they're not turning their anger on the government as much as other groups and institutions. It's an ugly mood and bodes ill for the government in the long term unless they can miraculously get a grip on immigration and public services
    Apparently - Telegraph - Starmer is refusing to give a speech on immigration. As that would “legitimise concerns”. This feels like a howling error - polls already show immigration has shot to the number 1 issue and it might all get worse - and the PM simply ignores it? Deeply, deeply foolish

    He takes the knee for BLM riots but won’t legitimise concerns on the public’s number 1 issue with a speech

    I’m sure he didn’t want to spend his first 6 months addressing migration and the boats but I don’t think he now has much choice
    Of course he has a choice.

    He can choose to let the criminal justice system do its job, jail the rioters, and then put this whole nonsense into the rear view mirror at which point it will blow away as fast as it blew up.

    Just because you're obsessed with this doesn't mean everyone else shares your obsession.
    Well, they literally do because polls show immigration has surged to being the number 1 issue

    “Immigration now tops the list of most important national issues for the first time since 2016”

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50266-top-national-issues-crime-and-immigration-shoot-up-since-mid-july
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Yup.

    Trump's desperation strategy is clear: get enough states to fail to certify, throw the election to the House. Rs may have a majority of states even if Ds recapture the House.
    https://nitter.poast.org/NormOrnstein/status/1823039747989594351#m

    Won't work this time as the VP calls out the electoral college result and Harris is VP
    I think the idea is to work it a step earlier - have some states not even send votes to the House in the first place. So the VP wouldn't have them to count.

    Might have Democrats sending in their own 'electors' this time!
    The VP would just count the votes that have come in and declare herself the winner
    There is no constitutional requirement to get 270 votes in the constitution, just a majority of the votes of those listed as having been voted for by Electors in each State and submitted to the VP as President of the Senate. 'The Electors shall meet in their respective States, and vote by Ballot for two Persons, of whom one at least shall not be an Inhabitant of the same State with themselves. And they shall make a List of all the Persons voted for, and of the Number of Votes for each; which List they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the Seat of the Government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate. The President of the Senate shall, in the Presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the Certificates, and the Votes shall then be counted. The Person having the greatest Number of Votes shall be the President'
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    edited August 12
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A depressingly accurate TwiX description of the Britain that awaits us

    "They're going to have China style censorship without any of the perks like fast trains, shiny skyscrapers, and a safe society relatively free of violent crime lol."

    No it isn't.

    Get a bloody grip.
    Feels EXACTLY like that, to me. That is where we are headed
    Thank God you're not a person predisposed to any kind of wild overreaction.
    The correct reaction to the last month in Britain is, unfortunately, deep gloom and bleak pessimism, verging on despair. If anything I is bein' a bit too cheery
    Characteristic bollocks from you, as normal.

    We have seen in the past month an horrific crime, to which the attacker was arrested and charged - and a once-a-decade riot that has seen rioters get arrested and go to jail. Just like in 2011.

    Nothing pessimistic about that, just part and parcel of living in a free society that sometimes crime happens and the criminal justice system has to do its job.

    Meanwhile for the rest of the population life goes on, the Olympics have been entertaining, Britain has won lots of medals - and oh yes, did I mention that life goes on?

    Enjoy the last of the summer weather, because before long it will be autumn and then we'll be heading towards Christmas, with life still going on and these summer riots behind us once more.
    A lot of people still don’t seem to have adjusted to the fact that we have a new government.
    They might think it’s crap, and ignoring the problems that they diagnose (which is an attitude not exactly alien to me too, on occasion), but they need to recognise their views are, for the time being, close to irrelevant.

    That will change in time, but for now Starmer, with his Parliamentary majority, gets to try what he thinks he needs to do. And Leon’s take on that, along with mine, isn’t going to make any difference.
    What is the point of this comment?

    Do I expect my pungent critique of Starmer to topple the government? No. Do I think Labour are already showing signs of utter incompetence mixed with Wokeness plus a total inability to address issues of migration/asylum which will probably wreck them in the end? Yes

    I’m stating that political opinion. That’s what we do on here
    The public are more sensible than we give them credit for. Most people rightly accept that at the moment any problems with migration and asylum are bugger all to do with the new administration. That will and should change as time goes on though.
    I reckon it’s changed already. Because, riots
    I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that people blame the Labour government for those though. I agree that they've heated up the immigration debate which will eventually come back to bite the government. It won't be long but it's not here yet
    Starmer’s plunging popularity?

    I dunno. We need more polls

    You could be right and the British are in a forgiving and tolerant mood, willing to give Labour time. But it all feels more febrile than that

    However - this may come as a shock - I am the excitable type and could be overdoing it
    You can be wonderfully disarming sometimes. I don't think the public are in a forgiving mood but they're not stupid and at the moment they're not turning their anger on the government as much as other groups and institutions. It's an ugly mood and bodes ill for the government in the long term unless they can miraculously get a grip on immigration and public services
    Apparently - Telegraph - Starmer is refusing to give a speech on immigration. As that would “legitimise concerns”. This feels like a howling error - polls already show immigration has shot to the number 1 issue and it might all get worse - and the PM simply ignores it? Deeply, deeply foolish

    He takes the knee for BLM riots but won’t legitimise concerns on the public’s number 1 issue with a speech

    I’m sure he didn’t want to spend his first 6 months addressing migration and the boats but I don’t think he now has much choice
    Of course he has a choice.

    He can choose to let the criminal justice system do its job, jail the rioters, and then put this whole nonsense into the rear view mirror at which point it will blow away as fast as it blew up.

    Just because you're obsessed with this doesn't mean everyone else shares your obsession.
    Well, they literally do because polls show immigration has surged to being the number 1 issue

    “Immigration now tops the list of most important national issues for the first time since 2016”

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50266-top-national-issues-crime-and-immigration-shoot-up-since-mid-july
    They literally do not, because no poll has ever registered 100% caring about one issue.

    A slender majority (51%) may consider it the issue this month. Big deal. Last month the economy was the biggest issue and who knows what next month brings?

    The PM has both the ability to react to the news and to set the agenda, moving the conversation back to the economy may be the rational thing to do.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148

    Andy_JS said:

    "Ian Dunt
    @IanDunt

    I don't see how anyone can find anything interesting to say about the American election. It's childlike in its simplicity: Goodies versus baddies, joy versus hate. It makes Star Wars look morally nuanced."

    https://x.com/IanDunt/status/1821913086921425213

    An uncharacteristically calm and measured, accurate comment from Dunt rather the the sweary melodrama he usually goes for.
    I like that Indians vs Cowboys is the other way round to the myth.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Leon said:

    On and on and on


    BREAKING: Boy rushed to hospital after getting stabbed in Manchester city centre

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1823103911261069569?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This is probably no different to what was happening in previous decades, we just know about it straight away now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,250
    Nigelb said:

    Damn, the ‘best’ Fringe jokes are awful.
    @ydoethur would be ashamed of these.
    https://www.theguardian.com/stage/article/2024/aug/12/10-funniest-jokes-edinburgh-fringe-2024

    (Though very last one is OK.)

    That's a collection of dad and christmas cracker jokes.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    edited August 12
    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A depressingly accurate TwiX description of the Britain that awaits us

    "They're going to have China style censorship without any of the perks like fast trains, shiny skyscrapers, and a safe society relatively free of violent crime lol."

    No it isn't.

    Get a bloody grip.
    Feels EXACTLY like that, to me. That is where we are headed
    Thank God you're not a person predisposed to any kind of wild overreaction.
    The correct reaction to the last month in Britain is, unfortunately, deep gloom and bleak pessimism, verging on despair. If anything I is bein' a bit too cheery
    Characteristic bollocks from you, as normal.

    We have seen in the past month an horrific crime, to which the attacker was arrested and charged - and a once-a-decade riot that has seen rioters get arrested and go to jail. Just like in 2011.

    Nothing pessimistic about that, just part and parcel of living in a free society that sometimes crime happens and the criminal justice system has to do its job.

    Meanwhile for the rest of the population life goes on, the Olympics have been entertaining, Britain has won lots of medals - and oh yes, did I mention that life goes on?

    Enjoy the last of the summer weather, because before long it will be autumn and then we'll be heading towards Christmas, with life still going on and these summer riots behind us once more.
    A lot of people still don’t seem to have adjusted to the fact that we have a new government.
    They might think it’s crap, and ignoring the problems that they diagnose (which is an attitude not exactly alien to me too, on occasion), but they need to recognise their views are, for the time being, close to irrelevant.

    That will change in time, but for now Starmer, with his Parliamentary majority, gets to try what he thinks he needs to do. And Leon’s take on that, along with mine, isn’t going to make any difference.
    What is the point of this comment?

    Do I expect my pungent critique of Starmer to topple the government? No. Do I think Labour are already showing signs of utter incompetence mixed with Wokeness plus a total inability to address issues of migration/asylum which will probably wreck them in the end? Yes

    I’m stating that political opinion. That’s what we do on here
    The public are more sensible than we give them credit for. Most people rightly accept that at the moment any problems with migration and asylum are bugger all to do with the new administration. That will and should change as time goes on though.
    I reckon it’s changed already. Because, riots
    I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that people blame the Labour government for those though. I agree that they've heated up the immigration debate which will eventually come back to bite the government. It won't be long but it's not here yet
    Starmer’s plunging popularity?

    I dunno. We need more polls

    You could be right and the British are in a forgiving and tolerant mood, willing to give Labour time. But it all feels more febrile than that

    However - this may come as a shock - I am the excitable type and could be overdoing it
    You can be wonderfully disarming sometimes. I don't think the public are in a forgiving mood but they're not stupid and at the moment they're not turning their anger on the government as much as other groups and institutions. It's an ugly mood and bodes ill for the government in the long term unless they can miraculously get a grip on immigration and public services
    Apparently - Telegraph - Starmer is refusing to give a speech on immigration. As that would “legitimise concerns”. This feels like a howling error - polls already show immigration has shot to the number 1 issue and it might all get worse - and the PM simply ignores it? Deeply, deeply foolish

    He takes the knee for BLM riots but won’t legitimise concerns on the public’s number 1 issue with a speech

    I’m sure he didn’t want to spend his first 6 months addressing migration and the boats but I don’t think he now has much choice
    It sounds TBH like the Telegrunt trying YET ANOTHER desperate attack line to excite blue rinse RefUKers in silly season, trying to pin yet another thing not of his creation on him before he gets a chance properly to address it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    On and on and on


    BREAKING: Boy rushed to hospital after getting stabbed in Manchester city centre

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1823103911261069569?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This is probably no different to what was happening in previous decades, we just know about it straight away now.
    Yes possibly

    Or possibly not
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    Foxy said:

    Based on this graphic We Think also appear to be conflating refugees with immigrants.


    Yet the British people think a reduction in immigration in health and social care s a bad thing. Even Conservative and Reform voters.



    To say that Britons are conflicted over immigration is an understatement.
    In my neck of the woods Lee Anderson put out dog whistles about a hotel full of (maybe temporary) NHS staff being occupied by asylum seekers.

    That doesn't help for one thing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,250
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    On and on and on


    BREAKING: Boy rushed to hospital after getting stabbed in Manchester city centre

    https://x.com/gbnews/status/1823103911261069569?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This is probably no different to what was happening in previous decades, we just know about it straight away now.
    Yes possibly

    Or possibly not
    You mean the Postcode Wars passed you by entirely?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    This is enough to make you want to ban social media completely.

    "Why did the public turn against Chloe Ayling? Sexism and class prejudice, the kidnapped model suggests
    Her story will feature in new six-part BBC drama Kidnapped
    Athena Stavrou"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/chloe-ayling-bbc-kidnapped-drama-model-b2594953.html
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    Andy_JS said:

    This is from a Telegraph journalist.

    "Sam Ashworth-Hayes
    @SAshworthHayes

    A friend visiting London has had their phone snatched. The phone is at a hotel six minutes walk from a police station, and the thief is using it to order delivery food, make trips on Uber, etc. He will absolutely be on CCTV.

    The police have decided its not worth following up."

    https://x.com/SAshworthHayes/status/1823003707174212081

    Perhaps they have something more important to deal with at present? Like - maybe - a possible riot?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    edited August 12
    I'm off PB for a few days.

    Too many people have turned - temporarily I hope - into "elephant of conclusions on a toadstool of evidence" merchants.

    Too much noise, not enough signal. Enjoy the week, all.
  • Andy_JS said:

    This is enough to make you want to ban social media completely.

    "Why did the public turn against Chloe Ayling? Sexism and class prejudice, the kidnapped model suggests
    Her story will feature in new six-part BBC drama Kidnapped
    Athena Stavrou"

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/chloe-ayling-bbc-kidnapped-drama-model-b2594953.html

    Only if we get to ban Piers Morgan completely too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,250
    MattW said:

    I'm off PB for a few days.

    Too many people have turned - temporarily I hope - into "elephant of conclusions on a toadstool of evidence" merchants.

    Too much noise, not enough signal. Enjoy the week, all.

    Poll prognosticators with too few polls to prognosticate.

    “…..Cartmell (had) no pianos to tune. And a piano-tuner suddenly deprived of pianos is like a tiger whose medical adviser has put it on a vegetarian diet. Cartmell used to talk to us of pianos he had tuned in the past, and sometimes he would speak easily and well of pianos he hoped to tune in the future, but it was not the same. You could see that what the man wanted was a piano now.”
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    OK cool so Trump did a Twitter space and the exact same thing happened as when De Santis did a Twitter space.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 795
    This interview is going well so far!
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 795
    edited August 13
    Right finally started. Elon being as awkward as @Leon says so far. I will not be keeping up a running commentary, I just feel some obligation to say something since I made the last post (which was sarcastic btw - they screwed stuff up bad).
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    edited August 13

    OT - I think might be some purple in the sky here so those of you in the north might be able to see the aurora tonight.

    Not overhead like a couple of months ago though unless we get another increase in the particle stream.

    Will probably need a long exposure to see the colours.

    See https://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/

    Went out to have a look but only caught a green glow low on the horizon with a bit of purple above. No streamers visible.

    Was probably better earlier in the night.

    Only one Perseid too.

    Oh well, if you don't try...
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 795
    edited August 13

    Right finally started. Elon being as awkward as @Leon says so far. I will not be keeping up a running commentary, I just feel some obligation to say something since I made the last post (which was sarcastic btw - they screwed stuff up bad).

    Right, that's enough for me. I stand by assessment of Elon. But as Trump continues, I can see this working for him potentially (not a "suddenly win election" kind of work, but in a "better off with than without" kinda way). He said some stuff very early on that could definitely be construed as narcissistic about one of the families whose husband died (can't remember exact quote, but to do with what the wife said about a million dollars not being as good). But basically he is coming off mostly normal and reasonable.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    "Elon Musk

    @elonmusk
    There appears to be a massive DDOS attack on 𝕏. Working on shutting it down.

    Worst case, we will proceed with a smaller number of live listeners and post the conversation later.
    1:18 AM · Aug 13, 2024
    22M Views"

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1823152153445404990
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Putting every single opinion poll into context - over a quarter of Brits reckon they could qualify fur the next Olympics if they started training today.
    https://x.com/PlanMaestro/status/1822954773848486210
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,649
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Updated Tory MP declarations of backing for next leader:

    Jenrick 9
    Tugendhat 5
    Stride 5
    Badenoch 5
    Cleverly 4
    Patel 4
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/08/12/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/

    So few have declared that we can't really make any judgements from this data.
    It's over a quarter, tbf. Easy to forget how few there are in total.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Nigelb said:

    Putting every single opinion poll into context - over a quarter of Brits reckon they could qualify fur the next Olympics if they started training today.
    https://x.com/PlanMaestro/status/1822954773848486210

    LOL, nope!

    Although the story of Georgia Bell, who was a schools and university runner who took several years’ sabbatical from competition, started running again during the pandemic, and came back aged 30 to win Bronze with a British record in the 1,500m, is pretty inspiring.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/olympics/2024/08/11/georgia-bell-1500m-record-work-trevor-painter-jenny-meadows/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk

    @elonmusk
    There appears to be a massive DDOS attack on 𝕏. Working on shutting it down.

    Worst case, we will proceed with a smaller number of live listeners and post the conversation later.
    1:18 AM · Aug 13, 2024
    22M Views"

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1823152153445404990

    They went live nearly an hour late but with a million listeners, which is a pretty good number, peak was around 1.3m.

    There was clearly something seriously wrong at the scheduled start time, as the feed kept dropping out with only 100k or so connected, it took about half an hour to stabilise. Seeing the feeds of all the watchalong commentators talk about nothing for nearly an hour was good fun!

    The more casual conversation style worked for both men, who can actually talk much better than they can write social media posts or do formal interviews. I don’t think Trump said anything massively controversial, but will watch again later when not half asleep.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk

    @elonmusk
    There appears to be a massive DDOS attack on 𝕏. Working on shutting it down.

    Worst case, we will proceed with a smaller number of live listeners and post the conversation later.
    1:18 AM · Aug 13, 2024
    22M Views"

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1823152153445404990

    They went live nearly an hour late but with a million listeners, which is a pretty good number, peak was around 1.3m.

    There was clearly something seriously wrong at the scheduled start time, as the feed kept dropping out with only 100k or so connected, it took about half an hour to stabilise. Seeing the feeds of all the watchalong commentators talk about nothing for nearly an hour was good fun!

    The more casual conversation style worked for both men, who can actually talk much better than they can write social media posts or do formal interviews. I don’t think Trump said anything massively controversial, but will watch again later when not half asleep.
    He’s offered to host Kamala Harris too. Hope she takes him up.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk

    @elonmusk
    There appears to be a massive DDOS attack on 𝕏. Working on shutting it down.

    Worst case, we will proceed with a smaller number of live listeners and post the conversation later.
    1:18 AM · Aug 13, 2024
    22M Views"

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1823152153445404990

    They went live nearly an hour late but with a million listeners, which is a pretty good number, peak was around 1.3m.

    There was clearly something seriously wrong at the scheduled start time, as the feed kept dropping out with only 100k or so connected, it took about half an hour to stabilise. Seeing the feeds of all the watchalong commentators talk about nothing for nearly an hour was good fun!

    The more casual conversation style worked for both men, who can actually talk much better than they can write social media posts or do formal interviews. I don’t think Trump said anything massively controversial, but will watch again later when not half asleep.
    I did not listen live or to a whole replay but there is a lot of reaction about Trump slurring his words, and scepticism about Musk's ddos claims.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk

    @elonmusk
    There appears to be a massive DDOS attack on 𝕏. Working on shutting it down.

    Worst case, we will proceed with a smaller number of live listeners and post the conversation later.
    1:18 AM · Aug 13, 2024
    22M Views"

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1823152153445404990

    They went live nearly an hour late but with a million listeners, which is a pretty good number, peak was around 1.3m.

    There was clearly something seriously wrong at the scheduled start time, as the feed kept dropping out with only 100k or so connected, it took about half an hour to stabilise. Seeing the feeds of all the watchalong commentators talk about nothing for nearly an hour was good fun!

    The more casual conversation style worked for both men, who can actually talk much better than they can write social media posts or do formal interviews. I don’t think Trump said anything massively controversial, but will watch again later when not half asleep.
    He’s offered to host Kamala Harris too. Hope she takes him up.
    I hope so too, but given that she’s had precisely zero sit-down interviews or conversations with anyone since Biden announced he was standing down…
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,578
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Putting every single opinion poll into context - over a quarter of Brits reckon they could qualify fur the next Olympics if they started training today.
    https://x.com/PlanMaestro/status/1822954773848486210

    LOL, nope!

    Although the story of Georgia Bell, who was a schools and university runner who took several years’ sabbatical from competition, started running again during the pandemic, and came back aged 30 to win Bronze with a British record in the 1,500m, is pretty inspiring.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/olympics/2024/08/11/georgia-bell-1500m-record-work-trevor-painter-jenny-meadows/
    Chrissie Wellington did her first super-sprint triathlon in 2004, aged 27, having done no professional sports. She won the Ironman World Championships at Kona in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrissie_Wellington

    There will be lots of people out there who could be worlds-best at a certain sport, who never get the chance for whatever reason - they don't have the finance; they never try that sport; they don't like the culture within the sport; whatever. ISTR that British sports/coaches talk closely to one another, and young people swap between (say) cycling and rowing, or swimming and running.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk

    @elonmusk
    There appears to be a massive DDOS attack on 𝕏. Working on shutting it down.

    Worst case, we will proceed with a smaller number of live listeners and post the conversation later.
    1:18 AM · Aug 13, 2024
    22M Views"

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1823152153445404990

    They went live nearly an hour late but with a million listeners, which is a pretty good number, peak was around 1.3m.

    There was clearly something seriously wrong at the scheduled start time, as the feed kept dropping out with only 100k or so connected, it took about half an hour to stabilise. Seeing the feeds of all the watchalong commentators talk about nothing for nearly an hour was good fun!

    The more casual conversation style worked for both men, who can actually talk much better than they can write social media posts or do formal interviews. I don’t think Trump said anything massively controversial, but will watch again later when not half asleep.
    I did not listen live or to a whole replay but there is a lot of reaction about Trump slurring his words, and scepticism about Musk's ddos claims.
    There were some audio compression issues early in the conversation. Even 1m audio streams doesn’t take a massive amount of bandwidth compared to video, so it’s difficult to understand what’s going on under the hood with Spaces. They say they tested with 8m listeners earlier in the day, so the DDOS story is plausible - or their infrastructure scaling didn’t work quickly enough for the real stream. I would have thought that, for something so high profile, there would have been half a dozen engineers looking at little else at the time.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,578
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk

    @elonmusk
    There appears to be a massive DDOS attack on 𝕏. Working on shutting it down.

    Worst case, we will proceed with a smaller number of live listeners and post the conversation later.
    1:18 AM · Aug 13, 2024
    22M Views"

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1823152153445404990

    They went live nearly an hour late but with a million listeners, which is a pretty good number, peak was around 1.3m.

    There was clearly something seriously wrong at the scheduled start time, as the feed kept dropping out with only 100k or so connected, it took about half an hour to stabilise. Seeing the feeds of all the watchalong commentators talk about nothing for nearly an hour was good fun!

    The more casual conversation style worked for both men, who can actually talk much better than they can write social media posts or do formal interviews. I don’t think Trump said anything massively controversial, but will watch again later when not half asleep.
    He’s offered to host Kamala Harris too. Hope she takes him up.
    I hope so too, but given that she’s had precisely zero sit-down interviews or conversations with anyone since Biden announced he was standing down…
    If I was her, I'd stay as far away from Musky Baby as I possibly could. He's made it perfectly clear that he's on team Trump, and there would only be downsides to appearing.

    As ana side, I don't for a minute believe Twix suffered a DDOS.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,816
    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    3 years for grabbing a police baton and running off with it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c990yn1xkxmo

    "At Plymouth Crown Court, a man who grabbed a police officer's baton and ran off with it was jailed for three years. Guy Sullivan, 43, of New George Street, Plymouth, admitted a charge of violent disorder relating to the violence in the city on 5 August. The court heard a lone officer had been using his baton to push back protesters around him, when Sullivan came behind the officer and grabbed the baton out of his hands."

    Not quite, Lord Copper. Another incomplete report without enough context on PB. I'm seeing this type of commentary again and again on PB, by people who are jumping to conclusions from wrong information. Please stop.

    The officer was then pulled to the ground and beaten up by those he had been protecting himself against with his batten. The perp materially assisted in the mob violence by preventing the policeman defending himself. The riot situation makes it far worse as a crime, and is treated far more seriously.

    He got 26 months for that, not 3 years, and I think it will be 50:50 prison:on license (my assumption).

    Sullivan had also broken into a supermarket in the riot situation and stolen alcohol, for which he got 16 months for that last week, which has been reduced to 10 months consecutive.

    Sullivan also had a record of 37 previous convictions for 108 offences. This is a local thug thinking he can take adavantage.

    The judicial system is getting this about right. And it will stop it, which is what we all want.

    https://www.tiktok.com/@criminalmindsuncovered_/video/7402370809517460769

    But please can we stop the frothing based on leaning towers of BS. Obviously Leon won't but that's his version of breathing. But most of us are better than this.
    I did say in my earlier comment that if removing the baton had put the police officer at risk then the sentence may well be justified. It seems it was not even risk, it was the facilitation of an assault. Tough.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Updated Tory MP declarations of backing for next leader:

    Jenrick 9
    Tugendhat 5
    Stride 5
    Badenoch 5
    Cleverly 4
    Patel 4
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/08/12/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/

    Wiki says

    Jenrick 9
    Tugendhat 5
    Stride 6
    Badenoch 6
    Cleverly 4
    Patel 4

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_2024_Conservative_Party_leadership_election
    So Jenrick leads on nine, yet in order to be in the race, each candidate needed 10 backers. Surely all we see here is MPs being afraid to commit publicly until it is clear which way the wind is blowing.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited August 13

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Putting every single opinion poll into context - over a quarter of Brits reckon they could qualify fur the next Olympics if they started training today.
    https://x.com/PlanMaestro/status/1822954773848486210

    LOL, nope!

    Although the story of Georgia Bell, who was a schools and university runner who took several years’ sabbatical from competition, started running again during the pandemic, and came back aged 30 to win Bronze with a British record in the 1,500m, is pretty inspiring.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/olympics/2024/08/11/georgia-bell-1500m-record-work-trevor-painter-jenny-meadows/
    Chrissie Wellington did her first super-sprint triathlon in 2004, aged 27, having done no professional sports. She won the Ironman World Championships at Kona in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrissie_Wellington

    There will be lots of people out there who could be worlds-best at a certain sport, who never get the chance for whatever reason - they don't have the finance; they never try that sport; they don't like the culture within the sport; whatever. ISTR that British sports/coaches talk closely to one another, and young people swap between (say) cycling and rowing, or swimming and running.
    That’s a cool story too, hadn’t heard of Chrissie.

    IIRC there is quite a bit of movement between sports within the Olympics, vaguely remember one lady won a medal in tobogganing at the winter games, having transferred from the 400m running team after falling narrowly short of selection.

    Edit: I was close. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lizzy_Yarnold Won Skeleton gold having initially been a heptathlete. There was a programme called Girls4Gold that tried to identify potential medals in some of the more obscure sports.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    3 years for grabbing a police baton and running off with it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c990yn1xkxmo

    "At Plymouth Crown Court, a man who grabbed a police officer's baton and ran off with it was jailed for three years. Guy Sullivan, 43, of New George Street, Plymouth, admitted a charge of violent disorder relating to the violence in the city on 5 August. The court heard a lone officer had been using his baton to push back protesters around him, when Sullivan came behind the officer and grabbed the baton out of his hands."

    Not quite, Lord Copper. Another incomplete report without enough context on PB. I'm seeing this type of commentary again and again on PB, by people who are jumping to conclusions from wrong information. Please stop.

    The officer was then pulled to the ground and beaten up by those he had been protecting himself against with his batten. The perp materially assisted in the mob violence by preventing the policeman defending himself. The riot situation makes it far worse as a crime, and is treated far more seriously.

    He got 26 months for that, not 3 years, and I think it will be 50:50 prison:on license (my assumption).

    Sullivan had also broken into a supermarket in the riot situation and stolen alcohol, for which he got 16 months for that last week, which has been reduced to 10 months consecutive.

    Sullivan also had a record of 37 previous convictions for 108 offences. This is a local thug thinking he can take adavantage.

    The judicial system is getting this about right. And it will stop it, which is what we all want.

    https://www.tiktok.com/@criminalmindsuncovered_/video/7402370809517460769

    But please can we stop the frothing based on leaning towers of BS. Obviously Leon won't but that's his version of breathing. But most of us are better than this.
    I did say in my earlier comment that if removing the baton had put the police officer at risk then the sentence may well be justified. It seems it was not even risk, it was the facilitation of an assault. Tough.
    Assaulting the policeman, and stealing the weapon that he was using to defend himself alone from a group of rioters, sounds pretty bad.

    Many of these rioters appear to have records as long as their arm, the context of wider disturbances being the excuse the judge needs to finally throw the book at them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,578
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Putting every single opinion poll into context - over a quarter of Brits reckon they could qualify fur the next Olympics if they started training today.
    https://x.com/PlanMaestro/status/1822954773848486210

    LOL, nope!

    Although the story of Georgia Bell, who was a schools and university runner who took several years’ sabbatical from competition, started running again during the pandemic, and came back aged 30 to win Bronze with a British record in the 1,500m, is pretty inspiring.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/olympics/2024/08/11/georgia-bell-1500m-record-work-trevor-painter-jenny-meadows/
    Chrissie Wellington did her first super-sprint triathlon in 2004, aged 27, having done no professional sports. She won the Ironman World Championships at Kona in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrissie_Wellington

    There will be lots of people out there who could be worlds-best at a certain sport, who never get the chance for whatever reason - they don't have the finance; they never try that sport; they don't like the culture within the sport; whatever. ISTR that British sports/coaches talk closely to one another, and young people swap between (say) cycling and rowing, or swimming and running.
    That’s a cool story too, hadn’t heard of Chrissie.

    IIRC there is quite a bit of movement between sports within the Olympics, vaguely remember one lady won a medal in tobogganing at the winter games, having transferred from the 400m running team after falling narrowly short of selection.

    Edit: I was close. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lizzy_Yarnold Won Skeleton gold having initially been a heptathlete. There was a programme called Girls4Gold that tried to identify potential medals in some of the more obscure sports.
    Chrissie Wellington was a bit of a heroine of mine back then. Her backstory was interesting, and I liked the fact she popped up out of nowhere to dominate the sport, then retired happily back into relative obscurity. She also appeared very personable and down-to-earth compared to many athletes.

    In 2008, she came second overall at the incredibly difficult Alpe d'Huez triathlon, only being beaten by one man, who finished a little over a minute ahead of her. She had a serious bike crash two weeks before Kona in 2011, and she still went on to win despite the injuries.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    NEW THREAD

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Meanwhile, the Ukranian invasion of Russia continues unabated, with more gains yesterday.
    https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1823168917550047675

    Even one Ukranian MP has turned up, having taken leave of absence from Parliament
    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1823128362480517580

    The Russians appear to be unable to defend the region at all, with reports of 1,000 sq km now captured, and 100,000 civilians evacuated. Presumably the latter have their phones confiscated and get sent on a long coach trip to Siberia, to stop them talking to anyone about what’s actually happening in Kursk Oblast.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Putting every single opinion poll into context - over a quarter of Brits reckon they could qualify fur the next Olympics if they started training today.
    https://x.com/PlanMaestro/status/1822954773848486210

    LOL, nope!

    Although the story of Georgia Bell, who was a schools and university runner who took several years’ sabbatical from competition, started running again during the pandemic, and came back aged 30 to win Bronze with a British record in the 1,500m, is pretty inspiring.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/olympics/2024/08/11/georgia-bell-1500m-record-work-trevor-painter-jenny-meadows/
    Chrissie Wellington did her first super-sprint triathlon in 2004, aged 27, having done no professional sports. She won the Ironman World Championships at Kona in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrissie_Wellington

    There will be lots of people out there who could be worlds-best at a certain sport, who never get the chance for whatever reason - they don't have the finance; they never try that sport; they don't like the culture within the sport; whatever. ISTR that British sports/coaches talk closely to one another, and young people swap between (say) cycling and rowing, or swimming and running.
    That’s a cool story too, hadn’t heard of Chrissie.

    IIRC there is quite a bit of movement between sports within the Olympics, vaguely remember one lady won a medal in tobogganing at the winter games, having transferred from the 400m running team after falling narrowly short of selection.

    Edit: I was close. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lizzy_Yarnold Won Skeleton gold having initially been a heptathlete. There was a programme called Girls4Gold that tried to identify potential medals in some of the more obscure sports.
    That sounds rather familiar to the plot of Cool Runnings.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    3 years for grabbing a police baton and running off with it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c990yn1xkxmo

    "At Plymouth Crown Court, a man who grabbed a police officer's baton and ran off with it was jailed for three years. Guy Sullivan, 43, of New George Street, Plymouth, admitted a charge of violent disorder relating to the violence in the city on 5 August. The court heard a lone officer had been using his baton to push back protesters around him, when Sullivan came behind the officer and grabbed the baton out of his hands."

    Not quite, Lord Copper. Another incomplete report without enough context on PB. I'm seeing this type of commentary again and again on PB, by people who are jumping to conclusions from wrong information. Please stop.

    The officer was then pulled to the ground and beaten up by those he had been protecting himself against with his batten. The perp materially assisted in the mob violence by preventing the policeman defending himself. The riot situation makes it far worse as a crime, and is treated far more seriously.

    He got 26 months for that, not 3 years, and I think it will be 50:50 prison:on license (my assumption).

    Sullivan had also broken into a supermarket in the riot situation and stolen alcohol, for which he got 16 months for that last week, which has been reduced to 10 months consecutive.

    Sullivan also had a record of 37 previous convictions for 108 offences. This is a local thug thinking he can take adavantage.

    The judicial system is getting this about right. And it will stop it, which is what we all want.

    https://www.tiktok.com/@criminalmindsuncovered_/video/7402370809517460769

    But please can we stop the frothing based on leaning towers of BS. Obviously Leon won't but that's his version of breathing. But most of us are better than this.
    I did say in my earlier comment that if removing the baton had put the police officer at risk then the sentence may well be justified. It seems it was not even risk, it was the facilitation of an assault. Tough.
    Assaulting the policeman, and stealing the weapon that he was using to defend himself alone from a group of rioters, sounds pretty bad.

    Many of these rioters appear to have records as long as their arm, the context of wider disturbances being the excuse the judge needs to finally throw the book at them.
    There's a certain consistency - if you are involved in rioting or looting you are likely to get a harsh sentence. I think we saw that in the last lot of riots. You might be able to find cases where that is tough on the individual, but there is some ugly misrepresentation going on here (no doubt far worse elsewhere) where the implication seems to be that people are being locked up just for being white or something. Or for being advocates of free speech.

  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Man charged over knife attack on 11 year old girl.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y3e6dl6wgo
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    DavidL said:

    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    3 years for grabbing a police baton and running off with it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c990yn1xkxmo

    "At Plymouth Crown Court, a man who grabbed a police officer's baton and ran off with it was jailed for three years. Guy Sullivan, 43, of New George Street, Plymouth, admitted a charge of violent disorder relating to the violence in the city on 5 August. The court heard a lone officer had been using his baton to push back protesters around him, when Sullivan came behind the officer and grabbed the baton out of his hands."

    Not quite, Lord Copper. Another incomplete report without enough context on PB. I'm seeing this type of commentary again and again on PB, by people who are jumping to conclusions from wrong information. Please stop.

    The officer was then pulled to the ground and beaten up by those he had been protecting himself against with his batten. The perp materially assisted in the mob violence by preventing the policeman defending himself. The riot situation makes it far worse as a crime, and is treated far more seriously.

    He got 26 months for that, not 3 years, and I think it will be 50:50 prison:on license (my assumption).

    Sullivan had also broken into a supermarket in the riot situation and stolen alcohol, for which he got 16 months for that last week, which has been reduced to 10 months consecutive.

    Sullivan also had a record of 37 previous convictions for 108 offences. This is a local thug thinking he can take adavantage.

    The judicial system is getting this about right. And it will stop it, which is what we all want.

    https://www.tiktok.com/@criminalmindsuncovered_/video/7402370809517460769

    But please can we stop the frothing based on leaning towers of BS. Obviously Leon won't but that's his version of breathing. But most of us are better than this.
    I did say in my earlier comment that if removing the baton had put the police officer at risk then the sentence may well be justified. It seems it was not even risk, it was the facilitation of an assault. Tough.
    Thanks for the reply,
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Updated Tory MP declarations of backing for next leader:

    Jenrick 9
    Tugendhat 5
    Stride 5
    Badenoch 5
    Cleverly 4
    Patel 4
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/08/12/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/

    So few have declared that we can't really make any judgements from this data.
    That's 32 declarations, plus the six candidates themselves, 38 out of 121, or 31%.

    It's easy to forget how few Tory MPs there are. You ought to be able to tell something from a third of the total.
  • ArchvaldorArchvaldor Posts: 18
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I predict this will rapidly become a sh*tshow:

    "Elon Musk to interview Trump on X social media network"

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/elon-musk-interview-trump-x-social-media-network-2024-08-12/

    100% agree

    Musk is awkward, he admits he's on the spectrum, he's socially unskilled, he's hesitant and a bit weird (personally, I also think he's a genius, but let's set that aside for now)

    He'll be interviewing a raging narcissist with significant cognitive decline and a tendency to lose the plot, or lie absurdly

    It might be compelling viewing, but not in the way they hope

    Musk *claims* to be on the spectrum. He also frequently lies.

    I dislike people saying "I'm on the spectrum!" as a way of self-excusing shitty behaviour. Plenty of people 'on the spectrum' manage to live normal, ordinary lives without being shitty. The chances are many such people would be shitty anyway.
    He certainly evinces plenty of spectrummy behaviourisms, his oddly meek voice, his inability to look eye to eye, the stiff body language, the halting sentences and quite odd sense of humour, and the fact he offends people quite easily, often without meaning to

    It doesn't matter anyway. I agree with your thesis. This interview has all the ingredients for a trainwreck
    He is I agree on the spectrum. The thing is, there are plenty of people with Asperger's or something close to it who aren't supportive of neo-nazis. Also they don't tend to pontificate about freedom of speech whilst deleting any criticism of themselves or their company.

    I think you should give such people the benefit of the doubt on things like social etiquette. It can actually be quite useful to have someone who can't lie to you convincingly and tells you the blunt horrible truth. But there's a limit to what you can give people a pass on.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,421
    edited August 13
    ...
    viewcode said:

    Stereodog said:

    Stereodog said:

    HYUFD said:

    Updated Tory MP declarations of backing for next leader:

    Jenrick 9
    Tugendhat 5
    Stride 5
    Badenoch 5
    Cleverly 4
    Patel 4
    https://conservativehome.com/2024/08/12/next-tory-leader-which-mp-is-backing-whom-cleverly-surges-ahead-to-two-supporters/

    Mel Stride is doing quite well for a complete non entity.
    Not the worst campaign slogan.
    Mel Stride "Not quite the worst"
    "Perfectly acceptable under the circumstances"
    If he's not the worst, he'll certainly do until the worst comes along. 'Continuity Sunak' is the answer to a question precisely nobody has ever asked.
This discussion has been closed.