A harbinger or an outlier? – politicalbetting.com
A harbinger or an outlier? – politicalbetting.com
Oooh.More Americans trust Kamala Harris to handle the US economy than Donald Trump, according to a new poll that marks a sharp change in voter sentiment following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the White House race https://t.co/GvkgKjkt02
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The best leaders tend to be the most positive ones, the ambition to be a "shining city on a hill".
Kamala has been relentlessly and infectiously positive since she replaced Biden.
Trump has been miserable, dour and sulking.
Made me smile anyway.
But I think Trump holds Ohio and Florida
As our Sunil demonstrated a while back, there is more than one plausible way to compile a medal table.
The classic way is to list by golds first, and use silver and bronze as tie-breakers. The US tends however to do it by total medals. That usually enhances their position (and ours too).
Another way is to award points per medal - e.g. Gold 5, Silver 3, Bronze 1. Sunil did this and again it flattered us and the US. You can sod about with the ratios too, in which case you might well want to allocate relatively more for golds, because they really are a lot more valuable than silver and bronze.
A more controversial method would be to allocate more weight to the high status events. Most people accept that Track and Field is the centrepiece of the games, so medals there could be scored higher, with maybe a bonus for blue riband events like the 100m sprint, 1500m and marathon. Swimming, cycling and rowing would be in the mid-range. You could deduct points for winning the breakdancing.
How do like it so far?
Personally I think it was a highly successful games - for Paris, for France, and for the GB team.
"Polling for The Times by YouGov shows that 93 per cent of the public — including 87 per cent of Labour voters — believe the government should do more to deal with current levels of migration to the UK.
"And while only 8 per cent of the public had sympathy with the unrest, 58 per cent (including over half of all Labour voters) said they had sympathy with those who protested peacefully. More than a third (42 per cent) said that the demonstrations had been justified, while most worryingly for the government more than half (51 per cent) said that immigration is the top issue facing the country. This is a rise of 19 per cent since the election and the first time that immigration has topped YouGov’s issue tracker since 2016."
What have I missed ?
He expected to win in 2016 and in 2020 - how does he behave if he thinks he is going to lose.
Why would you cling to Trump if he starts to look like a loser? It's not as if anyone actually likes the guy.
Would you trust him with your money ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_accidents_and_incidents
and
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/09/science/boeing-starliner-nasa-astronauts-life-in-space/index.html
and
Boeing's general record recently.
https://x.com/ArchRose90/status/1822634978779287853
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1822547842172371115
It’s absurdly close given Trump is a convicted felon, a convicted fraudster, a convicted sex pest and a convicted liar.
It's 19 months in prison and 19 months on license. He only got a 20% not 33% reduction on the basic 4 year sentence due to guilty plea since it was not at the first opportunity.
I'm not sure what that sentence would be relating to an individual or several people rather than a riot situation.
I was correct, his housing is Council Housing, so of course he will lose it if just him - they won't keep it empty for a crim for 19 months. Not sure about whether he lived with his family, in which case it may be different depending who holds the tenancy.
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/R-v-Tyler-Kay-Sentencing-remarks.pdf
Gold 4
Silver 2
Bronze 1
There's also expectations versus reality.
The silver in synchronised swimming seems to be better than yet another silver in the velodrome or athletics relays.
And then there are comparisons with other countries - the relative performance is much worse this year.
Can someone check to see if Max Verstappen was working for the Netherlands Olympic Team?
There are lots of single cat ladies in Columbus, Ohio.
Shady Vance is catfood.
Using my much fairer system — three points for gold, two for silver, one for bronze, per capita but requiring a minimum of 50 medals and penalising the host country by 12 per cent for home advantage — it is clear that Britain won the Olympics. Again.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/society/article/top-10-moments-highlights-paris-olympics-2024-pz29600sw
But there's no political ideology with Trump, it all about what benefits Trump - which in turn suggests that the people around him are in it only for themselves.
But 97% of Chinese manufacturers’ installations were in China. Only 1% of Europe’s new wind capacity was Chinese.
https://x.com/kyleichan/status/1822624727506051412
Half of all new car sales in China are now EVs.
They've stolen a march on the west.
Never mind, I'll do my bit on it, anyway:
- If rents are low and/or growing slowly, there's no need for rent controls. Only if rents are high and/or shooting up does anyone have any reason to want them
- If rents are high/spiralling, it means there's not enough supply to go around, or there's a price-fixing cartel in operation (and the cartel has control of a supermajority of the housing stock)
- If there's not enough supply to go around, it's going to be rationed. Pretty much by definition. You have three options, other than increasing supply (the actual solution):
- - Ration by price (rents go high/spiralling)
- - Ration by waiting list (you have to wait your turn, which may be lengthy if the supply deficit is significant (and the worse the prices under the first option, the longer is the wait)
- - Ration by perceived need (someone with the authority to make it stick steps in and says who is more worthy of getting a house/who needs it least)
Price controls reduce the monies available to increase or improve supply, so you end up in a vicious circle. You may say "But landlords won't improve properties" - but properties do get improved by landlords and, at least, usually upkept safely. Rent controls hit there, so not only do you not increase stock, your existing stock deteriorates. (A Swedish economist - not usually famous for being hostile to left-wing solutions - famously remarked that rent control appears to be the most efficient technique presently known to destroy housing, except for aerial bombing)
If you're in when rent controls come in, you're usually far better off than someone entering the market to rent somewhere afterwards. Landlords will be VERY picky, will put the rent up as much as possible, and the amount of availability will be decreased (so you end up with a waiting list scenario, anyway).
It's as effective a way of combating rental shortages as forcing on far-too-small clothes are as a way of combating ever-increasing weight (whilst still overeating and underexercising). Not only doesn't it achieve anything, you end up much more uncomfortable, and with your clothes splitting in an embarrassing fashion
It will a stream of foam flecked rants and deranged accusations about the Dem team even more bonkers than the ones he's tried so far.
But of course they may not panic because they know they have so many state officials ready to not certify the result if Trump loses.
If only because it will encourage more take up of sport among the general populace.
The West Indian sprinting and East African distance running always feels like an economy too narrowly focused on one particular industry.
Struggling to know who to support.
There were two sudden descent failures with "max" aircraft piloted by Americans. In both cases, the pilots were able to recover. Boeing should have taken strong actions immediately after the first, and even more so, after the second. (The Ethiopian loss was at a higher altitude, which might have made it harder for any pilot to recover.)
But we shouldn't imply that the long term term safety trend in US commercial aviation is still very good. And that hasn't changed -- in spite of Boeing's failures.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LA-WeacusP4
It doesn't look likely with these people:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_of_state_(U.S._state_government)
From the YouGov website. My capitals
“Sympathies with the views of those taking part in the protests are somewhat broader – six in ten Britons (58%) say they have a great deal or fair amount of sympathy for the views of those peacefully taking part in demonstrations that were ostensibly TRIGGERED BY THE SOUTHPORT MURDERS. This includes majorities of Labour and Lib Dem voters (53-56%), as well as two-thirds of Conservatives (64%), with Reform voters are most sympathetic at 83%.
THAT would be entertaining. Musk is continuously goading him
(President Obama had two permanent energy secretaries; both favor the increased use of nuclear power. You can decide for yourself whether the two are credible:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Chu
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernest_Moniz )
As a general point, I have said about these riots, it is just the way the state will deal with this type of issue to stop them, otherwise they will go on and on forever.
I would agree with Leon that generally the jail sentences are too long. Amongst many other things it will radicalise people who will leave prison in a couple of years time with nothing to lose.
Previous incidents (there have been several) were either down to icing or pilot error.
What made sense then, doesn't necessarily make sense any more.
https://x.com/Lis_Smith/status/1822640058500857889
Genuinely brave by Yousaf if he tries
General aviation (and particularly rotary wing general aviation) does not have such a good safety record.
Then Harris is performing much better than Biden on the economy simply because people 'know' or 'believe' she willl change Biden's policies.
If you are Trump you have reason to be a little miffed at these shiftings of the political reality. However, they are happening and he has real problems unless he can counter them.
On your question about nuclear power and benefits vs harms, a great resource (albeit now a few years old) is David MacKay's "Sustainable Energy - Without the Hot Air"
It's available for free online, and the stuff on nuclear power starts here:
https://www.withouthotair.com/c24/page_161.shtml
(David MacKay was a Fellow of the Royal Society, and Regius Professor of Engineering at Cambridge)
I do, which is a big reason I favor small modular reactors. I think that the build costs of such reactors would decline as the number increased, assuming competent management -- and, more important -- some control over the lawfare directed at nuclear power in the US.
(I learned much from Shellenberger's "Apocalypse Never", especially about California politics, and would recommend it to you.)
the weights above her head.
In the US these more extreme views became mainstream, because the moderates on the right mostly capitulated. The next year or two will determine so much about the future of British politics.
I wonder whether a long leadership contest will come to be seen as a mistake? A long period of pandering to the electorate of Tory members - currently more extreme than Tory voters - has the potential to set the Tories on a course to unite the right by converting moderate Tory voters into supporters of a Tory party imitating Reform.
In the Trump trials I've been interested in the tradeoffs in Jury selection processes between restricting public commentary for 'sub judice' reasons (more in UK) and the extensive (USA) or brief (UK) resulting nature of jury selection to filter out bias in jury members which results. There's also an interesting variation in whether a 'majority' or others aspects of reaching a verdict (which may vary I guess by State or State vs Federal, or English vs Scottish here).
It would be like the Al Fayed-Hamilton court case. You’d want neither side to win.
Is Musk even obliged to defend himself? Can’t he just ignore it?
Suing foreigners happens all the time in London.
Edit: would make a good ski-jump in East London.
Certainly that was how I read the question when I was polled!
I’m on the left and voted labour in 2024 and have voted labour at every Election since I first voted.
😂😂😂😂👍