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Sofa so good, Tim Walz is an inspired pick – politicalbetting.com

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  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782
    moonshine said:

    Jenrick is playing a dangerous game, accusing Starmer of double standards over policing.

    No-one's produced any concrete evidence of thst so far , and it potentialky plays into Musk's Trumpian narrative.

    Rather than taking shots at Musk, why don’t you head over to his platform and see the evidence for yourself? If you prefer, you can try Sky News instead, where you will find similar evidence.
    Coming from someone who didn't have the gumption to look at the account that he linked to as a credibility check. And this is not the first time. Sometimes ago you were pulled up on linking to an account that turned out to be a QAnon post. In both cases it took less than 30 seconds to drill down on the accounts to identify the facts.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    I’ve deleted my comment, in hindsight it wasn’t as funny as I thought.

    I suspect these rioters will target paediatricians next.

    That already happened, didn't it? Private Eye published a cartoon of someone running away from violence, whilst shouting "I'm a pediatrician!". Then a few months later, it happened for real.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick is playing a dangerous game, accusing Starmer of double standards over policing.

    No-one's produced any concrete evidence of thst so far , and it potentialky plays into Musk's Trumpian narrative.

    You’ve not seen the interview with West Midlands Police then
    Yes, of all the things to happen during these riots that is actually the most disturbing to me. The riots will come to an end but the pervasive attitude among police and politicians to deal with self appointed "community leaders" won't and that is fundamentally just wrong. Policing should be the same for everyone and "community leaders" should be ignored.
    Arguably it’s the natural evolution of our acceptance of things like sharia courts. If parallel communities can have parallel legal systems then why not parallel policing by and of themselves? Makes a kind of sense…

    Except that in a liberal democracy based on fair and equal treatment of everyone, by the sole accepted authorities, it is a disaster

    Hang on.

    How is a Sharia court different from a Beth Din one? And how is that different from people accepting binding arbitration from a non state court body?

    What power does a Sharia court to - say - imprison someone? Ultimately, any "punishments" they enforce exist only to the extent that someone chooses to part of that community.
    I don’t approve of Jewish courts either. I would abolish them all. Indeed I would go further and phase out faith schools

    Laicite!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick is playing a dangerous game, accusing Starmer of double standards over policing.

    No-one's produced any concrete evidence of thst so far , and it potentialky plays into Musk's Trumpian narrative.

    You’ve not seen the interview with West Midlands Police then
    Yes, of all the things to happen during these riots that is actually the most disturbing to me. The riots will come to an end but the pervasive attitude among police and politicians to deal with self appointed "community leaders" won't and that is fundamentally just wrong. Policing should be the same for everyone and "community leaders" should be ignored.
    Internal colonialism.

    But, that's entirely how they're trained.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    The MAGA were always going to depict Harris as far left (by US standards), so not sure there are many votes there.

    Key for the Dems is to enthuse the base and GOTV especially women, the young and minorities. We saw in our election how critical that is. The Ed Davey style is the way to go, positive and fun.
    I agree with the first point but that is why there were advantages in having someone more moderate (like Biden was) on the ticket for balance. She has left herself open and it remains to be seen whether this finds any traction or not.


    I am concerned that there is an assumption that this is over because we would want it to be so. Trump is still ahead and this election is still to be won or lost. Harris has had 3 very good weeks but that has got her back to near parity, it has not given her a decisive lead.
    Quite: Harris's accession, the Vance VP pick, and the general organization of the Democrats have turned this into a genuinely competitive Presidential election.

    But let us not forget that in the US - as in pretty much the entire developed world - prices have risen faster than wages over the last four years. Voters don't like getting poorer, and generally punish the party in power.

    The only reason that this election is competitive is because Trump is such a divisive candidate, and because Republicans (other than Trump) have engaged in a politically unpopular campaign to criminalize abortion.

    I would make Trump still the narrow favorite, but it could easily go either way - and a landslide victory for either candidate is not impossible.
    Some Leon level forecasting there.
    Literally anything can happen, and that prediction will be correct.
    I will revise the forecast as we get nearer the election.

    But here's my order of likelihood outcomes:

    1. Very narrow Republican victory, with the Sunbelt coming through for Trump, but the rust belt remaining blue.

    2. Very narrow Democrat victory, with at least one of the Sunbelt states holding solid.

    3. Solid Democrat victory, with the Sunbelt staying blue, and a couple of competitive states -like Iowa or Florida - flipping blue.

    4. Solid Republican victory, with all of Trump's 2016 wins, plus Virginia and Nevada.
    On (1) - doesn't Harris win if she holds the 3 rust belt marginals?
    You are correct: it's 270 to 268... So Trump needs to win Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, plus one of the rustbelt states.

    Maybe I need to make Harris the very slight favourite.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Leon said:

    So Orly is the French Gatwick, right down to the enormous numbers of screaming kids

    Easier to get to than Gatwick, tho

    Not from Crawley it isn't.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    edited August 7

    I’ve deleted my comment, in hindsight it wasn’t as funny as I thought.

    I suspect these rioters will target paediatricians next.

    That already happened, didn't it? Private Eye published a cartoon of someone running away from violence, whilst shouting "I'm a pediatrician!". Then a few months later, it happened for real.
    Oh, yes. But ...

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2000/aug/30/childprotection.society
    https://pressgazette.co.uk/news/a-tale-told-too-much-the-paediatrician-vigilantes/

    Edit: however there was a real problem with targeting, more generally:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/revealed-hated-targets-of-the-paulsgrove-mob-710953.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick is playing a dangerous game, accusing Starmer of double standards over policing.

    No-one's produced any concrete evidence of thst so far , and it potentialky plays into Musk's Trumpian narrative.

    You’ve not seen the interview with West Midlands Police then
    Yes, of all the things to happen during these riots that is actually the most disturbing to me. The riots will come to an end but the pervasive attitude among police and politicians to deal with self appointed "community leaders" won't and that is fundamentally just wrong. Policing should be the same for everyone and "community leaders" should be ignored.
    Arguably it’s the natural evolution of our acceptance of things like sharia courts. If parallel communities can have parallel legal systems then why not parallel policing by and of themselves? Makes a kind of sense…

    Except that in a liberal democracy based on fair and equal treatment of everyone, by the sole accepted authorities, it is a disaster

    Hang on.

    How is a Sharia court different from a Beth Din one? And how is that different from people accepting binding arbitration from a non state court body?

    What power does a Sharia court to - say - imprison someone? Ultimately, any "punishments" they enforce exist only to the extent that someone chooses to part of that community.
    I don’t approve of Jewish courts either. I would abolish them all. Indeed I would go further and phase out faith schools

    Laicite!
    The point is that there exist voluntary parallel legal systems everywhere, and for many reasons.

    The bar to banning anything anything needs to be high. I don't believe this exceeds it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,407
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick is playing a dangerous game, accusing Starmer of double standards over policing.

    No-one's produced any concrete evidence of thst so far , and it potentialky plays into Musk's Trumpian narrative.

    You’ve not seen the interview with West Midlands Police then
    Yes, of all the things to happen during these riots that is actually the most disturbing to me. The riots will come to an end but the pervasive attitude among police and politicians to deal with self appointed "community leaders" won't and that is fundamentally just wrong. Policing should be the same for everyone and "community leaders" should be ignored.
    Arguably it’s the natural evolution of our acceptance of things like sharia courts. If parallel communities can have parallel legal systems then why not parallel policing by and of themselves? Makes a kind of sense…

    Except that in a liberal democracy based on fair and equal treatment of everyone, by the sole accepted authorities, it is a disaster

    Hang on.

    How is a Sharia court different from a Beth Din one? And how is that different from people accepting binding arbitration from a non state court body?

    What power does a Sharia court to - say - imprison someone? Ultimately, any "punishments" they enforce exist only to the extent that someone chooses to part of that community.
    Does everyone get a choice, or are they threatened with violence or social ostracation if they do, with the British state turning a blind eye in the name of "community relations"?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620

    I’ve deleted my comment, in hindsight it wasn’t as funny as I thought.

    I suspect these rioters will target paediatricians next.

    That already happened, didn't it? Private Eye published a cartoon of someone running away from violence, whilst shouting "I'm a pediatrician!". Then a few months later, it happened for real.
    Back in the early 2000s when the News of the World whipped up hysteria.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick is playing a dangerous game, accusing Starmer of double standards over policing.

    No-one's produced any concrete evidence of thst so far , and it potentialky plays into Musk's Trumpian narrative.

    You’ve not seen the interview with West Midlands Police then
    Yes, of all the things to happen during these riots that is actually the most disturbing to me. The riots will come to an end but the pervasive attitude among police and politicians to deal with self appointed "community leaders" won't and that is fundamentally just wrong. Policing should be the same for everyone and "community leaders" should be ignored.
    Arguably it’s the natural evolution of our acceptance of things like sharia courts. If parallel communities can have parallel legal systems then why not parallel policing by and of themselves? Makes a kind of sense…

    Except that in a liberal democracy based on fair and equal treatment of everyone, by the sole accepted authorities, it is a disaster

    Hang on.

    How is a Sharia court different from a Beth Din one? And how is that different from people accepting binding arbitration from a non state court body?

    What power does a Sharia court to - say - imprison someone? Ultimately, any "punishments" they enforce exist only to the extent that someone chooses to part of that community.
    Nearly all the work they do is around divorces, in part because reductions in legal aid have meant more people turning to them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick is playing a dangerous game, accusing Starmer of double standards over policing.

    No-one's produced any concrete evidence of thst so far , and it potentialky plays into Musk's Trumpian narrative.

    You’ve not seen the interview with West Midlands Police then
    Yes, of all the things to happen during these riots that is actually the most disturbing to me. The riots will come to an end but the pervasive attitude among police and politicians to deal with self appointed "community leaders" won't and that is fundamentally just wrong. Policing should be the same for everyone and "community leaders" should be ignored.
    Arguably it’s the natural evolution of our acceptance of things like sharia courts. If parallel communities can have parallel legal systems then why not parallel policing by and of themselves? Makes a kind of sense…

    Except that in a liberal democracy based on fair and equal treatment of everyone, by the sole accepted authorities, it is a disaster

    Hang on.

    How is a Sharia court different from a Beth Din one? And how is that different from people accepting binding arbitration from a non state court body?

    What power does a Sharia court to - say - imprison someone? Ultimately, any "punishments" they enforce exist only to the extent that someone chooses to part of that community.
    I don’t approve of Jewish courts either. I would abolish them all. Indeed I would go further and phase out faith schools

    Laicite!
    Religious parents are entitled to choose good faith schools for their children in a free country
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-councillor-wife-far-right-hate-b2592271.html

    Wife of a Conservative councillor arrested for inciting hatred. Awks.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576
    MaxPB said:

    I think the Tories have got a real case against the ONS, from saying that the UK was the outlier in not having recovered from COVID setting a terrible narrative for them on the economy to now suggesting that not only did we recover very quickly but we were among the first to do so and saw growth faster than everywhere except the US. I also think with the correct GDP data upfront the BoE would have felt more confident in raising interest rates earlier heading off inflation much faster.

    Given the changes for 2022 and methodology update I also wouldn't be surprised if in September when the 2023 figures are updated there was no recession at the end of last year and in fact we saw growth all the way through the second half of 2023 which I think would have set a completely different narrative to the election and seen the Tories hold on to a lot more seats in the South East, East and South ending up on ~200 rather than ~130. If I was Rishi right now I'd be absolutely seething and Jeremy Hunt needs to call for an independent audit of ONS procedures because they keep getting it wrong, systematically there seems to be an approach that prefers to undershoot and revise upwards.

    Is it correct to say that the ONS figures get revised more heavily than those of other OECD or G7 countries, or is it that we pay more attention to the revision of the UK figures?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    Carnyx said:

    I’ve deleted my comment, in hindsight it wasn’t as funny as I thought.

    I suspect these rioters will target paediatricians next.

    That already happened, didn't it? Private Eye published a cartoon of someone running away from violence, whilst shouting "I'm a pediatrician!". Then a few months later, it happened for real.
    Oh, yes. But ...

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2000/aug/30/childprotection.society
    https://pressgazette.co.uk/news/a-tale-told-too-much-the-paediatrician-vigilantes/

    Edit: however there was a real problem with targeting, more generally:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/revealed-hated-targets-of-the-paulsgrove-mob-710953.html
    That both confirms and unconfirms the story. :)
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,362

    I’ve deleted my comment, in hindsight it wasn’t as funny as I thought.

    I suspect these rioters will target paediatricians next.

    That already happened, didn't it? Private Eye published a cartoon of someone running away from violence, whilst shouting "I'm a pediatrician!". Then a few months later, it happened for real.
    Many years ago when one of the redtops started posting pictures of "nonces" and naming and shaming them it resulted in a Paediatrician being attacked as well as people who were innocent who just happened to share the same name.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    Carnyx said:

    I’ve deleted my comment, in hindsight it wasn’t as funny as I thought.

    I suspect these rioters will target paediatricians next.

    That already happened, didn't it? Private Eye published a cartoon of someone running away from violence, whilst shouting "I'm a pediatrician!". Then a few months later, it happened for real.
    Oh, yes. But ...

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2000/aug/30/childprotection.society
    https://pressgazette.co.uk/news/a-tale-told-too-much-the-paediatrician-vigilantes/

    Edit: however there was a real problem with targeting, more generally:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/revealed-hated-targets-of-the-paulsgrove-mob-710953.html
    That both confirms and unconfirms the story. :)
    Yes, very helpful of me, isn't it!?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,700
    NY Times has the full details of the weekend's discussions over veep slot:


    "Polls had been conducted. Focus groups had been commissioned. Records reviewed. And the upshot, Ms. Harris was told, was this: She could win the White House with any of the three finalists [Shapiro, Kelly, Walz] by her side.

    It was the rarest of political advice for a political leader at the crossroads of such a consequential decision. And for Ms. Harris, a vice president who had spent much of her tenure trying to quietly establish herself without running afoul of President Biden, the advice was freeing rather than constricting.

    She could pick whomever she wanted."

    "her team’s polling did not suggest that either Mr. Shapiro or Mr. Kelly would bring a decisive advantage to their crucial home states."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/06/us/politics/harris-tim-walz-vp-pick.html
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    The MAGA were always going to depict Harris as far left (by US standards), so not sure there are many votes there.

    Key for the Dems is to enthuse the base and GOTV especially women, the young and minorities. We saw in our election how critical that is. The Ed Davey style is the way to go, positive and fun.
    I agree with the first point but that is why there were advantages in having someone more moderate (like Biden was) on the ticket for balance. She has left herself open and it remains to be seen whether this finds any traction or not.


    I am concerned that there is an assumption that this is over because we would want it to be so. Trump is still ahead and this election is still to be won or lost. Harris has had 3 very good weeks but that has got her back to near parity, it has not given her a decisive lead.
    Quite: Harris's accession, the Vance VP pick, and the general organization of the Democrats have turned this into a genuinely competitive Presidential election.

    But let us not forget that in the US - as in pretty much the entire developed world - prices have risen faster than wages over the last four years. Voters don't like getting poorer, and generally punish the party in power.

    The only reason that this election is competitive is because Trump is such a divisive candidate, and because Republicans (other than Trump) have engaged in a politically unpopular campaign to criminalize abortion.

    I would make Trump still the narrow favorite, but it could easily go either way - and a landslide victory for either candidate is not impossible.
    Some Leon level forecasting there.
    Literally anything can happen, and that prediction will be correct.
    I will revise the forecast as we get nearer the election.

    But here's my order of likelihood outcomes:

    1. Very narrow Republican victory, with the Sunbelt coming through for Trump, but the rust belt remaining blue.

    2. Very narrow Democrat victory, with at least one of the Sunbelt states holding solid.

    3. Solid Democrat victory, with the Sunbelt staying blue, and a couple of competitive states -like Iowa or Florida - flipping blue.

    4. Solid Republican victory, with all of Trump's 2016 wins, plus Virginia and Nevada.
    To summarise. It could be a small one. Or a different small one. Or a big one. Or a different big one 😃

    You are aware of Churchill's request for a one-handed economist?

    More seriously, there's a thing called a "cold read": a predictive statement that's usually true regardless of the situation. It derives from fairground fortune-tellers and an example is "you went thru a bit of a rough patch in your teens". At the moment we are just listing all the possible outcomes in probability order: that's fine, but it's not a prediction. This is the advantage of making a political bet: it instantiates what you thought at a specific moment in time about the future.


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576
    RCP betting average looks close to crossover, having closed markedly in the past week.

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

    Currently Trump 50.9 Harris 47.7.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    The MAGA were always going to depict Harris as far left (by US standards), so not sure there are many votes there.

    Key for the Dems is to enthuse the base and GOTV especially women, the young and minorities. We saw in our election how critical that is. The Ed Davey style is the way to go, positive and fun.
    I agree with the first point but that is why there were advantages in having someone more moderate (like Biden was) on the ticket for balance. She has left herself open and it remains to be seen whether this finds any traction or not.


    I am concerned that there is an assumption that this is over because we would want it to be so. Trump is still ahead and this election is still to be won or lost. Harris has had 3 very good weeks but that has got her back to near parity, it has not given her a decisive lead.
    Quite: Harris's accession, the Vance VP pick, and the general organization of the Democrats have turned this into a genuinely competitive Presidential election.

    But let us not forget that in the US - as in pretty much the entire developed world - prices have risen faster than wages over the last four years. Voters don't like getting poorer, and generally punish the party in power.

    The only reason that this election is competitive is because Trump is such a divisive candidate, and because Republicans (other than Trump) have engaged in a politically unpopular campaign to criminalize abortion.

    I would make Trump still the narrow favorite, but it could easily go either way - and a landslide victory for either candidate is not impossible.
    Some Leon level forecasting there.
    Literally anything can happen, and that prediction will be correct.
    I will revise the forecast as we get nearer the election.

    But here's my order of likelihood outcomes:

    1. Very narrow Republican victory, with the Sunbelt coming through for Trump, but the rust belt remaining blue.

    2. Very narrow Democrat victory, with at least one of the Sunbelt states holding solid.

    3. Solid Democrat victory, with the Sunbelt staying blue, and a couple of competitive states -like Iowa or Florida - flipping blue.

    4. Solid Republican victory, with all of Trump's 2016 wins, plus Virginia and Nevada.
    On (1) - doesn't Harris win if she holds the 3 rust belt marginals?
    Yup, assuming she holds Omaha, and defeats all shenanigans.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889

    Leon said:

    BETTING KLAXON

    Robert Jenrick is having quite a good rioting season. He’s everywhere making measured and conservative sounding noises. I’d make him slight favourite to win the leadership right now

    He has issues tho. How come he’s so rich and got all these houses? Wiki is quite opaque. I presume he has mega wealthy parents and didn’t make £30 million by the age of 29

    If it weren’t for a privileged backstory (the Tories have had enough of that) he’d be a clear favourite

    People pay good money for the time of Cambridge educated lawyers.

    His wife is also a lawyer at some very prestigious firms too and very wealthy.

    I know how you love the Macron stuff but Mrs Jenrick is nearly a decade older than Robert.
    Good luck to conservatives if they elect Jenrick.

    He'll be out within two years.
    Depends entirely on how the Labour government perform on the economy and immigration and stopping the boats, if poorly I would expect a Jenrick led Tories to be ahead in the polls within 2 years
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    "... coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away."
    Do you have evidence for the claim that this 'tactic' was agreed by the police?

    As for your last paragraph: it's quite simple. If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'. And if those white racist asshats went home and the vigilantes are still there, they get arrested for that.

    But you are looking at the tiny problem and ignoring the massive white racist elephants in the room.

    And BTW, many of the communities threatened by the white racists asshats are not Muslim. They might even threaten your community as well, as you're an 'immigrant' (even if you were born here, apparently...)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576
    A long read from a couple of weeks ago that we possibly missed.

    The race to get NATO ammunition production up and running, following decades of military planning failure.

    https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-artillery/
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    edited August 7

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    "... coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away."
    Do you have evidence for the claim that this 'tactic' was agreed by the police?

    As for your last paragraph: it's quite simple. If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'. And if those white racist asshats went home and the vigilantes are still there, they get arrested for that.

    But you are looking at the tiny problem and ignoring the massive white racist elephants in the room.

    And BTW, many of the communities threatened by the white racists asshats are not Muslim. They might even threaten your community as well, as you're an 'immigrant' (even if you were born here, apparently...)
    On your second paragraph nobody "needs" vigilantes, besides Gotham City.

    People carrying knives are doing so because they're criminals, often involved in illicit drugs or other trades, not because of the actions of others.

    There are no excuses. The Police need to tackle all criminals.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    edited August 7
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BETTING KLAXON

    Robert Jenrick is having quite a good rioting season. He’s everywhere making measured and conservative sounding noises. I’d make him slight favourite to win the leadership right now

    He has issues tho. How come he’s so rich and got all these houses? Wiki is quite opaque. I presume he has mega wealthy parents and didn’t make £30 million by the age of 29

    If it weren’t for a privileged backstory (the Tories have had enough of that) he’d be a clear favourite

    People pay good money for the time of Cambridge educated lawyers.

    His wife is also a lawyer at some very prestigious firms too and very wealthy.

    I know how you love the Macron stuff but Mrs Jenrick is nearly a decade older than Robert.
    Ah. Genuinely useful. So he made all that money himself and/or married well?

    Good for him

    He’s probably the best bet for the Tories - Badenoch is too lightweight and Patel too polarising. They need something of a blank slate and someone prepared to say conservative things

    Crucially, he can point to his resignation as immigration minister and say he was principled on this pivotal issue. I reckon, sadly, this issue is probably going to grow in salience
    Yes, Jenrick's father was a Wolverhampton gas fitter who set up a fireplace business, his mother a secretary. His upbringing is provincial white working class/lower middle class though he went to Cambridge from Wolverhampton Grammar School and then became a lawyer.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/20/robert-jenrick-interview-right-wing-views/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,700
    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    The MAGA were always going to depict Harris as far left (by US standards), so not sure there are many votes there.

    Key for the Dems is to enthuse the base and GOTV especially women, the young and minorities. We saw in our election how critical that is. The Ed Davey style is the way to go, positive and fun.
    I agree with the first point but that is why there were advantages in having someone more moderate (like Biden was) on the ticket for balance. She has left herself open and it remains to be seen whether this finds any traction or not.


    I am concerned that there is an assumption that this is over because we would want it to be so. Trump is still ahead and this election is still to be won or lost. Harris has had 3 very good weeks but that has got her back to near parity, it has not given her a decisive lead.
    Quite: Harris's accession, the Vance VP pick, and the general organization of the Democrats have turned this into a genuinely competitive Presidential election.

    But let us not forget that in the US - as in pretty much the entire developed world - prices have risen faster than wages over the last four years. Voters don't like getting poorer, and generally punish the party in power.

    The only reason that this election is competitive is because Trump is such a divisive candidate, and because Republicans (other than Trump) have engaged in a politically unpopular campaign to criminalize abortion.

    I would make Trump still the narrow favorite, but it could easily go either way - and a landslide victory for either candidate is not impossible.
    Some Leon level forecasting there.
    Literally anything can happen, and that prediction will be correct.
    I will revise the forecast as we get nearer the election.

    But here's my order of likelihood outcomes:

    1. Very narrow Republican victory, with the Sunbelt coming through for Trump, but the rust belt remaining blue.

    2. Very narrow Democrat victory, with at least one of the Sunbelt states holding solid.

    3. Solid Democrat victory, with the Sunbelt staying blue, and a couple of competitive states -like Iowa or Florida - flipping blue.

    4. Solid Republican victory, with all of Trump's 2016 wins, plus Virginia and Nevada.
    On (1) - doesn't Harris win if she holds the 3 rust belt marginals?
    You are correct: it's 270 to 268... So Trump needs to win Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, plus one of the rustbelt states.

    Maybe I need to make Harris the very slight favourite.
    Trump has been doing his best to lose Georgia in the last week.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BETTING KLAXON

    Robert Jenrick is having quite a good rioting season. He’s everywhere making measured and conservative sounding noises. I’d make him slight favourite to win the leadership right now

    He has issues tho. How come he’s so rich and got all these houses? Wiki is quite opaque. I presume he has mega wealthy parents and didn’t make £30 million by the age of 29

    If it weren’t for a privileged backstory (the Tories have had enough of that) he’d be a clear favourite

    People pay good money for the time of Cambridge educated lawyers.

    His wife is also a lawyer at some very prestigious firms too and very wealthy.

    I know how you love the Macron stuff but Mrs Jenrick is nearly a decade older than Robert.
    Ah. Genuinely useful. So he made all that money himself and/or married well?

    Good for him

    He’s probably the best bet for the Tories - Badenoch is too lightweight and Patel too polarising. They need something of a blank slate and someone prepared to say conservative things

    Crucially, he can point to his resignation as immigration minister and say he was principled on this pivotal issue. I reckon, sadly, this issue is probably going to grow in salience
    Yes, Jenrick's father was a Wolverhampton gas fitter who set up a fireplace business, his mother a secretary. His upbringing is provincial white working class/lower middle class though he went to Cambridge from Wolverhampton Grammar School and then became a lawyer.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/20/robert-jenrick-interview-right-wing-views/
    Presumably you will be happy with incessant gas fitter jokes in the vein of the PBTories and their toolmaker funmaking?

    (I wouldn't approve of either joke myself - too much respect for the skills and hard work involved.)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-councillor-wife-far-right-hate-b2592271.html

    Wife of a Conservative councillor arrested for inciting hatred. Awks.

    Longer version from the Express of all places.

    "Lucie Connolly, who is the wife of sitting Tory councillor Raymond Connolly has been arrested for inciting racial hatred after calling for rioters to 'set fire to all migrant hotels' on social media.

    In a tweet hours after the death of three girls in a knife attack in Southport, the childminder posted: "Mass deportation now, set fire to all the f****** hotels full of the b******* for all I care, while you're at it take the treacherous government and politicians with them.

    "I feel physically sick knowing what these families will now have to endure. If that makes me racist, so be it.""
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    They also chased that LBC reporter “for miles” - threatening him with weapons - and he said there was no sign of police anywhere

    There are also multiple contemporaneous tweets from average brummy citizens screaming: Where are the police???

    Seems to be an obvious police failure stemming in part from this two tier approach

    I have great sympathy for the coppers. They are attempting to keep extremists apart AND protect vulnerable minorities. But this was a screw up and the West Midland officer’s statement is disturbing and pathetic
  • rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    The MAGA were always going to depict Harris as far left (by US standards), so not sure there are many votes there.

    Key for the Dems is to enthuse the base and GOTV especially women, the young and minorities. We saw in our election how critical that is. The Ed Davey style is the way to go, positive and fun.
    I agree with the first point but that is why there were advantages in having someone more moderate (like Biden was) on the ticket for balance. She has left herself open and it remains to be seen whether this finds any traction or not.


    I am concerned that there is an assumption that this is over because we would want it to be so. Trump is still ahead and this election is still to be won or lost. Harris has had 3 very good weeks but that has got her back to near parity, it has not given her a decisive lead.
    Quite: Harris's accession, the Vance VP pick, and the general organization of the Democrats have turned this into a genuinely competitive Presidential election.

    But let us not forget that in the US - as in pretty much the entire developed world - prices have risen faster than wages over the last four years. Voters don't like getting poorer, and generally punish the party in power.

    The only reason that this election is competitive is because Trump is such a divisive candidate, and because Republicans (other than Trump) have engaged in a politically unpopular campaign to criminalize abortion.

    I would make Trump still the narrow favorite, but it could easily go either way - and a landslide victory for either candidate is not impossible.
    Some Leon level forecasting there.
    Literally anything can happen, and that prediction will be correct.
    I will revise the forecast as we get nearer the election.

    But here's my order of likelihood outcomes:

    1. Very narrow Republican victory, with the Sunbelt coming through for Trump, but the rust belt remaining blue.

    2. Very narrow Democrat victory, with at least one of the Sunbelt states holding solid.

    3. Solid Democrat victory, with the Sunbelt staying blue, and a couple of competitive states -like Iowa or Florida - flipping blue.

    4. Solid Republican victory, with all of Trump's 2016 wins, plus Virginia and Nevada.
    On (1) - doesn't Harris win if she holds the 3 rust belt marginals?
    You are correct: it's 270 to 268... So Trump needs to win Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, plus one of the rustbelt states.

    Maybe I need to make Harris the very slight favourite.
    Trump has been doing his best to lose Georgia in the last week.
    Trump has been doing his best to lose Georgia for the last four years.

    If Trumps wins I'll be disappointed in America, but if Trump wins Georgia I'd be especially disappointed in them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick is playing a dangerous game, accusing Starmer of double standards over policing.

    No-one's produced any concrete evidence of thst so far , and it potentialky plays into Musk's Trumpian narrative.

    You’ve not seen the interview with West Midlands Police then
    Yes, of all the things to happen during these riots that is actually the most disturbing to me. The riots will come to an end but the pervasive attitude among police and politicians to deal with self appointed "community leaders" won't and that is fundamentally just wrong. Policing should be the same for everyone and "community leaders" should be ignored.
    Arguably it’s the natural evolution of our acceptance of things like sharia courts. If parallel communities can have parallel legal systems then why not parallel policing by and of themselves? Makes a kind of sense…

    Except that in a liberal democracy based on fair and equal treatment of everyone, by the sole accepted authorities, it is a disaster

    Hang on.

    How is a Sharia court different from a Beth Din one? And how is that different from people accepting binding arbitration from a non state court body?

    What power does a Sharia court to - say - imprison someone? Ultimately, any "punishments" they enforce exist only to the extent that someone chooses to part of that community.
    It's not a clear line between the two things, though.
    In particular, there's an existing issue with what might come under the rubric of family law - along with the issue of whether there's genuine consent by all parties to arbitration.

    But you're right that there's room for a system of civil arbitration with genuine acceptance by the parties involved.

    The right wing religious movement in the US certainly goes well beyond that.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integralism
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick is playing a dangerous game, accusing Starmer of double standards over policing.

    No-one's produced any concrete evidence of thst so far , and it potentialky plays into Musk's Trumpian narrative.

    You’ve not seen the interview with West Midlands Police then
    Yes, of all the things to happen during these riots that is actually the most disturbing to me. The riots will come to an end but the pervasive attitude among police and politicians to deal with self appointed "community leaders" won't and that is fundamentally just wrong. Policing should be the same for everyone and "community leaders" should be ignored.
    Arguably it’s the natural evolution of our acceptance of things like sharia courts. If parallel communities can have parallel legal systems then why not parallel policing by and of themselves? Makes a kind of sense…

    Except that in a liberal democracy based on fair and equal treatment of everyone, by the sole accepted authorities, it is a disaster

    Hang on.

    How is a Sharia court different from a Beth Din one? And how is that different from people accepting binding arbitration from a non state court body?

    What power does a Sharia court to - say - imprison someone? Ultimately, any "punishments" they enforce exist only to the extent that someone chooses to part of that community.
    I don’t approve of Jewish courts either. I would abolish them all. Indeed I would go further and phase out faith schools

    Laicite!
    Religious parents are entitled to choose good faith schools for their children in a free country
    Now this is where my liberalism has a huge conflict and if I witnessed a discussion between @leon and @hyufd on the topic I am sure I would be going after each speech yes @leon's right, no @hyufd's right, etc.

    In a nutshell I don't like the idea of religious schools. I think it unhealthy. However who am I to tell people what schools they send their kids to. Similarly private schools. And I am a complete hypocrite having sent my children to a CofE primary school and my son to a private school. I had good reasons, but then doesn't everyone who does it have their own good reasons?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    BETTING KLAXON

    Robert Jenrick is having quite a good rioting season. He’s everywhere making measured and conservative sounding noises. I’d make him slight favourite to win the leadership right now

    He has issues tho. How come he’s so rich and got all these houses? Wiki is quite opaque. I presume he has mega wealthy parents and didn’t make £30 million by the age of 29

    If it weren’t for a privileged backstory (the Tories have had enough of that) he’d be a clear favourite

    People pay good money for the time of Cambridge educated lawyers.

    His wife is also a lawyer at some very prestigious firms too and very wealthy.

    I know how you love the Macron stuff but Mrs Jenrick is nearly a decade older than Robert.
    Good luck to conservatives if they elect Jenrick.

    He'll be out within two years.
    Depends entirely on how the Labour government perform on the economy and immigration and stopping the boats, if poorly I would expect a Jenrick led Tories to be ahead in the polls within 2 years
    Just mid term polling.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354
    What do people think about the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast?

    Suggestions from Russian military blogger channels that the Ukrainians are making continuing advances, destroying Russian equipment and taking prisoners.

    There's also a video of what purports to be the first helicopters downed by a FPV drone over Kursk.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    The MAGA were always going to depict Harris as far left (by US standards), so not sure there are many votes there.

    Key for the Dems is to enthuse the base and GOTV especially women, the young and minorities. We saw in our election how critical that is. The Ed Davey style is the way to go, positive and fun.
    I agree with the first point but that is why there were advantages in having someone more moderate (like Biden was) on the ticket for balance. She has left herself open and it remains to be seen whether this finds any traction or not.


    I am concerned that there is an assumption that this is over because we would want it to be so. Trump is still ahead and this election is still to be won or lost. Harris has had 3 very good weeks but that has got her back to near parity, it has not given her a decisive lead.
    Quite: Harris's accession, the Vance VP pick, and the general organization of the Democrats have turned this into a genuinely competitive Presidential election.

    But let us not forget that in the US - as in pretty much the entire developed world - prices have risen faster than wages over the last four years. Voters don't like getting poorer, and generally punish the party in power.

    The only reason that this election is competitive is because Trump is such a divisive candidate, and because Republicans (other than Trump) have engaged in a politically unpopular campaign to criminalize abortion.

    I would make Trump still the narrow favorite, but it could easily go either way - and a landslide victory for either candidate is not impossible.
    Some Leon level forecasting there.
    Literally anything can happen, and that prediction will be correct.
    I will revise the forecast as we get nearer the election.

    But here's my order of likelihood outcomes:

    1. Very narrow Republican victory, with the Sunbelt coming through for Trump, but the rust belt remaining blue.

    2. Very narrow Democrat victory, with at least one of the Sunbelt states holding solid.

    3. Solid Democrat victory, with the Sunbelt staying blue, and a couple of competitive states -like Iowa or Florida - flipping blue.

    4. Solid Republican victory, with all of Trump's 2016 wins, plus Virginia and Nevada.
    On (1) - doesn't Harris win if she holds the 3 rust belt marginals?
    You are correct: it's 270 to 268... So Trump needs to win Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, plus one of the rustbelt states.

    Maybe I need to make Harris the very slight favourite.
    That's where I am - except that I think she's perhaps marginally now the favourite in Georgia, too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BETTING KLAXON

    Robert Jenrick is having quite a good rioting season. He’s everywhere making measured and conservative sounding noises. I’d make him slight favourite to win the leadership right now

    He has issues tho. How come he’s so rich and got all these houses? Wiki is quite opaque. I presume he has mega wealthy parents and didn’t make £30 million by the age of 29

    If it weren’t for a privileged backstory (the Tories have had enough of that) he’d be a clear favourite

    People pay good money for the time of Cambridge educated lawyers.

    His wife is also a lawyer at some very prestigious firms too and very wealthy.

    I know how you love the Macron stuff but Mrs Jenrick is nearly a decade older than Robert.
    Ah. Genuinely useful. So he made all that money himself and/or married well?

    Good for him

    He’s probably the best bet for the Tories - Badenoch is too lightweight and Patel too polarising. They need something of a blank slate and someone prepared to say conservative things

    Crucially, he can point to his resignation as immigration minister and say he was principled on this pivotal issue. I reckon, sadly, this issue is probably going to grow in salience
    Yes, Jenrick's father was a Wolverhampton gas fitter who set up a fireplace business, his mother a secretary. His upbringing is provincial white working class/lower middle class though he went to Cambridge from Wolverhampton Grammar School and then became a lawyer.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/20/robert-jenrick-interview-right-wing-views/
    OK that’s sealed the deal for me. They should go for Jenrick
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    "... coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away."
    Do you have evidence for the claim that this 'tactic' was agreed by the police?

    As for your last paragraph: it's quite simple. If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'. And if those white racist asshats went home and the vigilantes are still there, they get arrested for that.

    But you are looking at the tiny problem and ignoring the massive white racist elephants in the room.

    And BTW, many of the communities threatened by the white racists asshats are not Muslim. They might even threaten your community as well, as you're an 'immigrant' (even if you were born here, apparently...)
    But it doesn't matter who started what at this point, you don't get it. I want all of the violent thugs off the streets, they are now perpetuating each other. Having Muslims with knives walking around the streets makes me feel no more safe than white fascists walking around the streets with knives. As a brown person I want the rioting to stop, the violence to stop and for anyone causing any violence to be arrested an dealt with.

    I don't have a side in this, I just don't want my wife to get stabbed by some Muslim thug who takes exception to her being white and Jewish and I don't want myself to get stabbed by some fascist who takes exception to me being Indian. Get them all off the streets regardless of their "motivation". There is simply no justification for anyone to be walking around the streets with weapons threatening people, regardless of their racial background or religion. Let the law enforcement get their job done.
    I do get it. I absolutely get it.

    But they are not perpetuating each other; that's just an excuse for the right-wing white asshats. And neither is the scale of it the same.

    The victims in this are the immigrant communities. Including yours.

    If you were in the UK, and the community of you and your family was being attacked by white right-wing asshats, what would you do? Would you like the police to come and tell you what they're doing, and so you can tell them your fears? Or would you do something more?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    "... coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away."
    Do you have evidence for the claim that this 'tactic' was agreed by the police?

    As for your last paragraph: it's quite simple. If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'. And if those white racist asshats went home and the vigilantes are still there, they get arrested for that.

    But you are looking at the tiny problem and ignoring the massive white racist elephants in the room.

    And BTW, many of the communities threatened by the white racists asshats are not Muslim. They might even threaten your community as well, as you're an 'immigrant' (even if you were born here, apparently...)
    But it doesn't matter who started what at this point, you don't get it. I want all of the violent thugs off the streets, they are now perpetuating each other. Having Muslims with knives walking around the streets makes me feel no more safe than white fascists walking around the streets with knives. As a brown person I want the rioting to stop, the violence to stop and for anyone causing any violence to be arrested an dealt with.

    I don't have a side in this, I just don't want my wife to get stabbed by some Muslim thug who takes exception to her being white and Jewish and I don't want myself to get stabbed by some fascist who takes exception to me being Indian. Get them all off the streets regardless of their "motivation". There is simply no justification for anyone to be walking around the streets with weapons threatening people, regardless of their racial background or religion. Let the law enforcement get their job done.
    Well said.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    Jenrick is playing a dangerous game, accusing Starmer of double standards over policing.

    No-one's produced any concrete evidence of thst so far , and it potentialky plays into Musk's Trumpian narrative.

    Rather than taking shots at Musk, why don’t you head over to his platform and see the evidence for yourself? If you prefer, you can try Sky News instead, where you will find similar evidence.
    Coming from someone who didn't have the gumption to look at the account that he linked to as a credibility check. And this is not the first time. Sometimes ago you were pulled up on linking to an account that turned out to be a QAnon post. In both cases it took less than 30 seconds to drill down on the accounts to identify the facts.
    This debate has gone to cuckoo land. You don’t have to go to Twitter if you don’t want to. Because the Birmingham police chief has confirmed with his own voice, on Sky News no less, that policing approaches are vastly different depending on background of the mob. His testimony is backed up by the lack of blue lights for hours at Yardley, but also for example the video of the copper kindly advising people to “leave their weapons at the mosque”.

    The appropriate conversation, which some have already cordially begun here, is not whether we have two tier policing, but whether that is sensible and appropriate in some cases. I am open to being persuaded that it is but my gut feel is that in the long run, it is grievously misadvised.

    You meanwhile are still at the childish tantrum stage of throwing QAnon slurs around.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    What do people think about the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast?

    Suggestions from Russian military blogger channels that the Ukrainians are making continuing advances, destroying Russian equipment and taking prisoners.

    There's also a video of what purports to be the first helicopters downed by a FPV drone over Kursk.

    They needed to do something to shake stuff up, because Russia's grinding attritional offensive this year seems to have been fairly successful and remarkably persistent. I thought it would have culminated long ago given the amounts of equipment being lost daily.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,789
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    They also chased that LBC reporter “for miles” - threatening him with weapons - and he said there was no sign of police anywhere

    There are also multiple contemporaneous tweets from average brummy citizens screaming: Where are the police???

    Seems to be an obvious police failure stemming in part from this two tier approach

    I have great sympathy for the coppers. They are attempting to keep extremists apart AND protect vulnerable minorities. But this was a screw up and the West Midland officer’s statement is disturbing and pathetic
    It's completely unacceptable and genuinely makes me want to leave the country. How have we got ourselves into this state where it's seen as racist to arrest people walking around with knives threatening others. It's fundamentally wrong.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    "... coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away."
    Do you have evidence for the claim that this 'tactic' was agreed by the police?

    As for your last paragraph: it's quite simple. If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'. And if those white racist asshats went home and the vigilantes are still there, they get arrested for that.

    But you are looking at the tiny problem and ignoring the massive white racist elephants in the room.

    And BTW, many of the communities threatened by the white racists asshats are not Muslim. They might even threaten your community as well, as you're an 'immigrant' (even if you were born here, apparently...)
    This is the UK version of Rooftop Koreans.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    "... coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away."
    Do you have evidence for the claim that this 'tactic' was agreed by the police?

    As for your last paragraph: it's quite simple. If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'. And if those white racist asshats went home and the vigilantes are still there, they get arrested for that.

    But you are looking at the tiny problem and ignoring the massive white racist elephants in the room.

    And BTW, many of the communities threatened by the white racists asshats are not Muslim. They might even threaten your community as well, as you're an 'immigrant' (even if you were born here, apparently...)
    But it doesn't matter who started what at this point, you don't get it. I want all of the violent thugs off the streets, they are now perpetuating each other. Having Muslims with knives walking around the streets makes me feel no more safe than white fascists walking around the streets with knives. As a brown person I want the rioting to stop, the violence to stop and for anyone causing any violence to be arrested an dealt with.

    I don't have a side in this, I just don't want my wife to get stabbed by some Muslim thug who takes exception to her being white and Jewish and I don't want myself to get stabbed by some fascist who takes exception to me being Indian. Get them all off the streets regardless of their "motivation". There is simply no justification for anyone to be walking around the streets with weapons threatening people, regardless of their racial background or religion. Let the law enforcement get their job done.
    I do get it. I absolutely get it.

    But they are not perpetuating each other; that's just an excuse for the right-wing white asshats. And neither is the scale of it the same.

    The victims in this are the immigrant communities. Including yours.

    If you were in the UK, and the community of you and your family was being attacked by white right-wing asshats, what would you do? Would you like the police to come and tell you what they're doing, and so you can tell them your fears? Or would you do something more?
    I imagine if @MaxPB saw friends and members of his community walking around with menacing swords trying to attack other ethnicities he would
    want the police there ASAFP to arrest them and get a grip on the situation
  • kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick is playing a dangerous game, accusing Starmer of double standards over policing.

    No-one's produced any concrete evidence of thst so far , and it potentialky plays into Musk's Trumpian narrative.

    You’ve not seen the interview with West Midlands Police then
    Yes, of all the things to happen during these riots that is actually the most disturbing to me. The riots will come to an end but the pervasive attitude among police and politicians to deal with self appointed "community leaders" won't and that is fundamentally just wrong. Policing should be the same for everyone and "community leaders" should be ignored.
    Arguably it’s the natural evolution of our acceptance of things like sharia courts. If parallel communities can have parallel legal systems then why not parallel policing by and of themselves? Makes a kind of sense…

    Except that in a liberal democracy based on fair and equal treatment of everyone, by the sole accepted authorities, it is a disaster

    Hang on.

    How is a Sharia court different from a Beth Din one? And how is that different from people accepting binding arbitration from a non state court body?

    What power does a Sharia court to - say - imprison someone? Ultimately, any "punishments" they enforce exist only to the extent that someone chooses to part of that community.
    I don’t approve of Jewish courts either. I would abolish them all. Indeed I would go further and phase out faith schools

    Laicite!
    Religious parents are entitled to choose good faith schools for their children in a free country
    Now this is where my liberalism has a huge conflict and if I witnessed a discussion between @leon and @hyufd on the topic I am sure I would be going after each speech yes @leon's right, no @hyufd's right, etc.

    In a nutshell I don't like the idea of religious schools. I think it unhealthy. However who am I to tell people what schools they send their kids to. Similarly private schools. And I am a complete hypocrite having sent my children to a CofE primary school and my son to a private school. I had good reasons, but then doesn't everyone who does it have their own good reasons?
    Liberalism is the ability to dislike something but accept others like it and have that choice.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    They also chased that LBC reporter “for miles” - threatening him with weapons - and he said there was no sign of police anywhere

    There are also multiple contemporaneous tweets from average brummy citizens screaming: Where are the police???

    Seems to be an obvious police failure stemming in part from this two tier approach

    I have great sympathy for the coppers. They are attempting to keep extremists apart AND protect vulnerable minorities. But this was a screw up and the West Midland officer’s statement is disturbing and pathetic
    It's completely unacceptable and genuinely makes me want to leave the country. How have we got ourselves into this state where it's seen as racist to arrest people walking around with knives threatening others. It's fundamentally wrong.
    He was arrested and has been charged.

    Stop believing the hype.
  • edited August 7
    Ditching Biden means Kamela has a free run for the votes of all rational people in the forthcoming elections. It is too late for the Republicans to win this election but the big risk for them now is how Trump depresses the Republican vote along the ticket. Will the Dems get the house and the senate as well ?

    Really this is how democracy is meant to work in the US but it has taken a long time. Presumably Trump was chosen in 2016 as a reaction against Bush Junior and that establishment - a man who did his best but who became disliked by his own side, rather like Sunak really.

    However, whilst there is every probability the New Tories will win in the UK in May 2028 it will be a hell of an achievement for Kamela to lose in 2028. If Walz is any good at all, and not just used as a place holder then realistically the Dems now could have the White House until 2036 - sorry, 2040
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    They also chased that LBC reporter “for miles” - threatening him with weapons - and he said there was no sign of police anywhere

    There are also multiple contemporaneous tweets from average brummy citizens screaming: Where are the police???

    Seems to be an obvious police failure stemming in part from this two tier approach

    I have great sympathy for the coppers. They are attempting to keep extremists apart AND protect vulnerable minorities. But this was a screw up and the West Midland officer’s statement is disturbing and pathetic
    It's completely unacceptable and genuinely makes me want to leave the country. How have we got ourselves into this state where it's seen as racist to arrest people walking around with knives threatening others. It's fundamentally wrong.
    I have the exact same melancholy feelings
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    o/t but impressive arsonist skills by Rover:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cg798rkylxxo

    Had no idea power banks were so lethal. Scooters, yes, but not those little things.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,174
    https://x.com/martynziegler/status/1821136551562092728

    Martyn Ziegler @martynziegler
    Rodri and Morata banned for one match each by UEFA for ‘Gibraltar is Spanish’ chants
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,789

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    "... coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away."
    Do you have evidence for the claim that this 'tactic' was agreed by the police?

    As for your last paragraph: it's quite simple. If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'. And if those white racist asshats went home and the vigilantes are still there, they get arrested for that.

    But you are looking at the tiny problem and ignoring the massive white racist elephants in the room.

    And BTW, many of the communities threatened by the white racists asshats are not Muslim. They might even threaten your community as well, as you're an 'immigrant' (even if you were born here, apparently...)
    But it doesn't matter who started what at this point, you don't get it. I want all of the violent thugs off the streets, they are now perpetuating each other. Having Muslims with knives walking around the streets makes me feel no more safe than white fascists walking around the streets with knives. As a brown person I want the rioting to stop, the violence to stop and for anyone causing any violence to be arrested an dealt with.

    I don't have a side in this, I just don't want my wife to get stabbed by some Muslim thug who takes exception to her being white and Jewish and I don't want myself to get stabbed by some fascist who takes exception to me being Indian. Get them all off the streets regardless of their "motivation". There is simply no justification for anyone to be walking around the streets with weapons threatening people, regardless of their racial background or religion. Let the law enforcement get their job done.
    I do get it. I absolutely get it.

    But they are not perpetuating each other; that's just an excuse for the right-wing white asshats. And neither is the scale of it the same.

    The victims in this are the immigrant communities. Including yours.

    If you were in the UK, and the community of you and your family was being attacked by white right-wing asshats, what would you do? Would you like the police to come and tell you what they're doing, and so you can tell them your fears? Or would you do something more?
    No you don't know because you know what my "community" are doing? Staying indoors and waiting for the police to arrest the thugs. Do you see any Hindus or Sikhs out there with knives threatening people? Of course not, we're waiting for the police to do their jobs and get the violent thugs off the streets.

    You seem to be condoning violent acts by vigilantes and I don't understand why?
  • What do people think about the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast?

    Suggestions from Russian military blogger channels that the Ukrainians are making continuing advances, destroying Russian equipment and taking prisoners.

    There's also a video of what purports to be the first helicopters downed by a FPV drone over Kursk.

    If its happening then well done Slava Ukraina and hopefully they continue to make advances.

    If Russia wants to defend its borders, perhaps they should pull their troops out of Ukraine, including Crimea, and move them to their own territory to defend it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    What do people think about the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast?

    Suggestions from Russian military blogger channels that the Ukrainians are making continuing advances, destroying Russian equipment and taking prisoners.

    There's also a video of what purports to be the first helicopters downed by a FPV drone over Kursk.

    People seem to think Ukraine are trying to claim this territory so it can be swapped for Ukrainian territory held by Russia.

    I just don't see that; Ukrainian-backed forces have made quick incursions into Russia several times, and retreated each time. A quick raid lasting a couple of days is very different from holding territory.

    So if not that, then what? I reckon it's simply opportunistic: Russia are so desperately short of troops that they a large area of their border relatively undefended, and Ukraine have decided to embarrass Russia at relatively cheap cost. Also, it may force Russia to move better troops to these border areas, reducing their capabilities in Ukraine. And the more material Ukraine manages to capture or destroy in the process, the better.

    There's actually video of the PFV helicopter takedown, so I think it happened. I just don't know if it was over Kursk.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,789
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    They also chased that LBC reporter “for miles” - threatening him with weapons - and he said there was no sign of police anywhere

    There are also multiple contemporaneous tweets from average brummy citizens screaming: Where are the police???

    Seems to be an obvious police failure stemming in part from this two tier approach

    I have great sympathy for the coppers. They are attempting to keep extremists apart AND protect vulnerable minorities. But this was a screw up and the West Midland officer’s statement is disturbing and pathetic
    It's completely unacceptable and genuinely makes me want to leave the country. How have we got ourselves into this state where it's seen as racist to arrest people walking around with knives threatening others. It's fundamentally wrong.
    He was arrested and has been charged.

    Stop believing the hype.
    But why was he even allowed out there obviously brandishing a weapon? Why did the coppers not see that and immediately arrest him before he was able to threaten other people?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950

    Punching up is good, punching down isn't.

    Vance is someone who came from socioeconomic deprivation and made a success of his life.

    Perhaps that's why he's resented by so many from more affluent backgrounds.

    From a bit of a distance I’m not sure that’s the reason.
    It’s more what he says and does.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    @YouGov
    47% of Britons now see right-wing extremists as a major threat, up 15pts since February

    % saying each are a "big" threat
    Islamic extremists: 52% (-1 since Feb)
    Right-wing extremists: 47% (+15)
    Left-wing extremists: 23% (+2)
    Irish Republican extremists: 13% (-2)
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1821111700126372182

    Only 18% of Reform UK voters see right-wing extremists as a 'big' threat - compared to 43% of Tories and 63-66% of Lab/LD voters

    Reform UK voters are more likely to see left-wing extremists as a major threat (46%) than right-wing ones
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1821111702764609968
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    "... coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away."
    Do you have evidence for the claim that this 'tactic' was agreed by the police?

    As for your last paragraph: it's quite simple. If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'. And if those white racist asshats went home and the vigilantes are still there, they get arrested for that.

    But you are looking at the tiny problem and ignoring the massive white racist elephants in the room.

    And BTW, many of the communities threatened by the white racists asshats are not Muslim. They might even threaten your community as well, as you're an 'immigrant' (even if you were born here, apparently...)
    But it doesn't matter who started what at this point, you don't get it. I want all of the violent thugs off the streets, they are now perpetuating each other. Having Muslims with knives walking around the streets makes me feel no more safe than white fascists walking around the streets with knives. As a brown person I want the rioting to stop, the violence to stop and for anyone causing any violence to be arrested an dealt with.

    I don't have a side in this, I just don't want my wife to get stabbed by some Muslim thug who takes exception to her being white and Jewish and I don't want myself to get stabbed by some fascist who takes exception to me being Indian. Get them all off the streets regardless of their "motivation". There is simply no justification for anyone to be walking around the streets with weapons threatening people, regardless of their racial background or religion. Let the law enforcement get their job done.
    I do get it. I absolutely get it.

    But they are not perpetuating each other; that's just an excuse for the right-wing white asshats. And neither is the scale of it the same.

    The victims in this are the immigrant communities. Including yours.

    If you were in the UK, and the community of you and your family was being attacked by white right-wing asshats, what would you do? Would you like the police to come and tell you what they're doing, and so you can tell them your fears? Or would you do something more?
    No you don't know because you know what my "community" are doing? Staying indoors and waiting for the police to arrest the thugs. Do you see any Hindus or Sikhs out there with knives threatening people? Of course not, we're waiting for the police to do their jobs and get the violent thugs off the streets.

    You seem to be condoning violent acts by vigilantes and I don't understand why?
    No, I;m not. You seem to be desperate to divert attention away from the right-wing asshates that have started, and continue to start, this mess, and I don't understand why?

    As for Hindus and violence:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Leicester_unrest
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,243
    Carnyx said:

    o/t but impressive arsonist skills by Rover:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cg798rkylxxo

    Had no idea power banks were so lethal. Scooters, yes, but not those little things.

    How on earth does the BBC know it was 'unintentional'?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BETTING KLAXON

    Robert Jenrick is having quite a good rioting season. He’s everywhere making measured and conservative sounding noises. I’d make him slight favourite to win the leadership right now

    He has issues tho. How come he’s so rich and got all these houses? Wiki is quite opaque. I presume he has mega wealthy parents and didn’t make £30 million by the age of 29

    If it weren’t for a privileged backstory (the Tories have had enough of that) he’d be a clear favourite

    People pay good money for the time of Cambridge educated lawyers.

    His wife is also a lawyer at some very prestigious firms too and very wealthy.

    I know how you love the Macron stuff but Mrs Jenrick is nearly a decade older than Robert.
    Ah. Genuinely useful. So he made all that money himself and/or married well?

    Good for him

    He’s probably the best bet for the Tories - Badenoch is too lightweight and Patel too polarising. They need something of a blank slate and someone prepared to say conservative things

    Crucially, he can point to his resignation as immigration minister and say he was principled on this pivotal issue. I reckon, sadly, this issue is probably going to grow in salience
    Yes, Jenrick's father was a Wolverhampton gas fitter who set up a fireplace business, his mother a secretary. His upbringing is provincial white working class/lower middle class though he went to Cambridge from Wolverhampton Grammar School and then became a lawyer.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/20/robert-jenrick-interview-right-wing-views/
    Presumably you will be happy with incessant gas fitter jokes in the vein of the PBTories and their toolmaker funmaking?

    (I wouldn't approve of either joke myself - too much respect for the skills and hard work involved.)
    Yes as it is positive advertising
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019
    Carnyx said:

    o/t but impressive arsonist skills by Rover:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cg798rkylxxo

    Had no idea power banks were so lethal. Scooters, yes, but not those little things.

    It's the same with mobile phone batteries. They burn well.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    "... coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away."
    Do you have evidence for the claim that this 'tactic' was agreed by the police?

    As for your last paragraph: it's quite simple. If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'. And if those white racist asshats went home and the vigilantes are still there, they get arrested for that.

    But you are looking at the tiny problem and ignoring the massive white racist elephants in the room.

    And BTW, many of the communities threatened by the white racists asshats are not Muslim. They might even threaten your community as well, as you're an 'immigrant' (even if you were born here, apparently...)
    But it doesn't matter who started what at this point, you don't get it. I want all of the violent thugs off the streets, they are now perpetuating each other. Having Muslims with knives walking around the streets makes me feel no more safe than white fascists walking around the streets with knives. As a brown person I want the rioting to stop, the violence to stop and for anyone causing any violence to be arrested an dealt with.

    I don't have a side in this, I just don't want my wife to get stabbed by some Muslim thug who takes exception to her being white and Jewish and I don't want myself to get stabbed by some fascist who takes exception to me being Indian. Get them all off the streets regardless of their "motivation". There is simply no justification for anyone to be walking around the streets with weapons threatening people, regardless of their racial background or religion. Let the law enforcement get their job done.
    I do get it. I absolutely get it.

    But they are not perpetuating each other; that's just an excuse for the right-wing white asshats. And neither is the scale of it the same.

    The victims in this are the immigrant communities. Including yours.

    If you were in the UK, and the community of you and your family was being attacked by white right-wing asshats, what would you do? Would you like the police to come and tell you what they're doing, and so you can tell them your fears? Or would you do something more?
    No you don't know because you know what my "community" are doing? Staying indoors and waiting for the police to arrest the thugs. Do you see any Hindus or Sikhs out there with knives threatening people? Of course not, we're waiting for the police to do their jobs and get the violent thugs off the streets.

    You seem to be condoning violent acts by vigilantes and I don't understand why?
    No, I;m not. You seem to be desperate to divert attention away from the right-wing asshates that have started, and continue to start, this mess, and I don't understand why?

    As for Hindus and violence:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Leicester_unrest
    Max seems desperate for asshats of all colours and creeds who break the law to be arrested.

    There's no excuses for any of them. The Police need to do their job.

    Criminals on the streets with knives are criminals on the streets with knives. There's been knife crime in this country for a lot longer than a week.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-31-july-3-august-2024/

    The swing state polling continues to be very tight. These numbers would have Trump winning by 282 to 256 in the Electoral College.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/martynziegler/status/1821136551562092728

    Martyn Ziegler @martynziegler
    Rodri and Morata banned for one match each by UEFA for ‘Gibraltar is Spanish’ chants

    Hmmm, UEFA have created an unfortunate precedent there, I suspect people in Serbia/Kosovo/Albania will take notice.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,694
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not that great a pick, since I lost money on it.

    Won't Kamala please think of my book?

    I did warn you the VP market was unpredictable. Although I missed the chance to short Shapiro, I was green on both of them.
    I missed too.

    I really do think that the Americans need to revise their over protracted Primary system, which seems to consume vast amounts of time and money, and create division within parties. Our parties might want to ponder this too.

    The last fortnight has come up with a better pairing through a much shorter process and unified the party.

    One of the Harris/Walz advantages is to be new and fresh, generating interest and attention at exactly the right time and 3 months to go.
    And most important, generating money.

    I suspect there will be another big uptick in donations after the addition of Walz to the ticket. perhaps even from some big corporate names. Wisconsin under Governor Walz has been very good at attracting inward investment. Corporate USA doesn't seem too worried by the "left wing" tag. Because it is nonsense.
    In that respect, Shapiro and Walz are pretty similar.
    And both have a pretty good record on cutting red tape - "permitting reform" in US parlance" - to enable development.

    If by 'left wing' they mean pro right to choose; public education; public healthcare, then sure. But those are all popular positions.

    As Waltz puts it: "I'm the monster who introduce free school meals".
    He’s also the monster who introduced 40-week abortions and porn in primary schools, in his own state.
    Citation required.
    NBC report about the abortion law, with no time limit mentioned.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/minnesota-governor-signs-broad-abortion-rights-bill-law-rcna68513

    Here’s the legislative sponsor of the bill about putting tampons in the boys rooms in schools, which is why TamponTim is trending
    https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1820886230332260548

    The porn is books such as “gender queer”, “this book is gay” and “let’s talk about it”, all of which are labelled 18+ on Amazon. There are pictures online about this content, I don’t need to link to it.
    You sound like one of those weird Trump ppl. Too much time living in a society afraid of homosexuality?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061

    Punching up is good, punching down isn't.

    Vance is someone who came from socioeconomic deprivation and made a success of his life.

    Perhaps that's why he's resented by so many from more affluent backgrounds.

    From a bit of a distance I’m not sure that’s the reason.
    It’s more what he says and does.
    Yes, it's since he became a religious nut who wants to police women's wombs.

    2014 Vance was fairly normal.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    Carnyx said:

    o/t but impressive arsonist skills by Rover:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cg798rkylxxo

    Had no idea power banks were so lethal. Scooters, yes, but not those little things.

    How on earth does the BBC know it was 'unintentional'?
    A mutt like that? Might be different for a Border Collie, mind. But in any case they had dog doors, so no need to burn the house down to get out for a crap.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Jenrick is playing a dangerous game, accusing Starmer of double standards over policing.

    No-one's produced any concrete evidence of thst so far , and it potentialky plays into Musk's Trumpian narrative.

    You’ve not seen the interview with West Midlands Police then
    Yes, of all the things to happen during these riots that is actually the most disturbing to me. The riots will come to an end but the pervasive attitude among police and politicians to deal with self appointed "community leaders" won't and that is fundamentally just wrong. Policing should be the same for everyone and "community leaders" should be ignored.
    Arguably it’s the natural evolution of our acceptance of things like sharia courts. If parallel communities can have parallel legal systems then why not parallel policing by and of themselves? Makes a kind of sense…

    Except that in a liberal democracy based on fair and equal treatment of everyone, by the sole accepted authorities, it is a disaster

    Hang on.

    How is a Sharia court different from a Beth Din one? And how is that different from people accepting binding arbitration from a non state court body?

    What power does a Sharia court to - say - imprison someone? Ultimately, any "punishments" they enforce exist only to the extent that someone chooses to part of that community.
    Does everyone get a choice, or are they threatened with violence or social ostracation if they do, with the British state turning a blind eye in the name of "community relations"?
    They get threatened with social ostracization. Which is very unpleasant.

    But membership of any religion is voluntary.

    One can always walk away. I realize that is incredibly hard, particularly for insular communities like Hasidic Judaism or Wahabi Islam. But the State maintains the monopoly on violence, imprisonment, etc.

    And (despite being an atheist) I am incredibly uncomfortable with the State banning something that is voluntarily entered into.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    They also chased that LBC reporter “for miles” - threatening him with weapons - and he said there was no sign of police anywhere

    There are also multiple contemporaneous tweets from average brummy citizens screaming: Where are the police???

    Seems to be an obvious police failure stemming in part from this two tier approach

    I have great sympathy for the coppers. They are attempting to keep extremists apart AND protect vulnerable minorities. But this was a screw up and the West Midland officer’s statement is disturbing and pathetic
    It's completely unacceptable and genuinely makes me want to leave the country. How have we got ourselves into this state where it's seen as racist to arrest people walking around with knives threatening others. It's fundamentally wrong.
    It is not seen as racist to arrest people walking around with knives threatening others. An arrest has been made.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576

    What do people think about the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast?

    Suggestions from Russian military blogger channels that the Ukrainians are making continuing advances, destroying Russian equipment and taking prisoners.

    There's also a video of what purports to be the first helicopters downed by a FPV drone over Kursk.

    People seem to think Ukraine are trying to claim this territory so it can be swapped for Ukrainian territory held by Russia.

    I just don't see that; Ukrainian-backed forces have made quick incursions into Russia several times, and retreated each time. A quick raid lasting a couple of days is very different from holding territory.

    So if not that, then what? I reckon it's simply opportunistic: Russia are so desperately short of troops that they a large area of their border relatively undefended, and Ukraine have decided to embarrass Russia at relatively cheap cost. Also, it may force Russia to move better troops to these border areas, reducing their capabilities in Ukraine. And the more material Ukraine manages to capture or destroy in the process, the better.

    There's actually video of the PFV helicopter takedown, so I think it happened. I just don't know if it was over Kursk.
    There was also an assault on the Russian airbase at Morozovsk, 250km from Ukraine, over the weekend, probably from Ukranian drones.

    At least one fighter plane destroyed, two damaged, and one very large missile storage facility going up like a firework factory. The missiles for the aircraft are rare and expensive.

    https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1821024336217538692
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    .

    What do people think about the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast?

    Suggestions from Russian military blogger channels that the Ukrainians are making continuing advances, destroying Russian equipment and taking prisoners.

    There's also a video of what purports to be the first helicopters downed by a FPV drone over Kursk.

    If its happening then well done Slava Ukraina and hopefully they continue to make advances.

    If Russia wants to defend its borders, perhaps they should pull their troops out of Ukraine, including Crimea, and move them to their own territory to defend it.
    This feels different to the prior incursions which were “Free Russian”. This is UAF. I think it’s a move with an eye on a forced settlement after Jan.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    "... coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away."
    Do you have evidence for the claim that this 'tactic' was agreed by the police?

    As for your last paragraph: it's quite simple. If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'. And if those white racist asshats went home and the vigilantes are still there, they get arrested for that.

    But you are looking at the tiny problem and ignoring the massive white racist elephants in the room.

    And BTW, many of the communities threatened by the white racists asshats are not Muslim. They might even threaten your community as well, as you're an 'immigrant' (even if you were born here, apparently...)
    But it doesn't matter who started what at this point, you don't get it. I want all of the violent thugs off the streets, they are now perpetuating each other. Having Muslims with knives walking around the streets makes me feel no more safe than white fascists walking around the streets with knives. As a brown person I want the rioting to stop, the violence to stop and for anyone causing any violence to be arrested an dealt with.

    I don't have a side in this, I just don't want my wife to get stabbed by some Muslim thug who takes exception to her being white and Jewish and I don't want myself to get stabbed by some fascist who takes exception to me being Indian. Get them all off the streets regardless of their "motivation". There is simply no justification for anyone to be walking around the streets with weapons threatening people, regardless of their racial background or religion. Let the law enforcement get their job done.
    I do get it. I absolutely get it.

    But they are not perpetuating each other; that's just an excuse for the right-wing white asshats. And neither is the scale of it the same.

    The victims in this are the immigrant communities. Including yours.

    If you were in the UK, and the community of you and your family was being attacked by white right-wing asshats, what would you do? Would you like the police to come and tell you what they're doing, and so you can tell them your fears? Or would you do something more?
    No you don't know because you know what my "community" are doing? Staying indoors and waiting for the police to arrest the thugs. Do you see any Hindus or Sikhs out there with knives threatening people? Of course not, we're waiting for the police to do their jobs and get the violent thugs off the streets.

    You seem to be condoning violent acts by vigilantes and I don't understand why?
    No, I;m not. You seem to be desperate to divert attention away from the right-wing asshates that have started, and continue to start, this mess, and I don't understand why?

    As for Hindus and violence:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Leicester_unrest
    Max seems desperate for asshats of all colours and creeds who break the law to be arrested.

    There's no excuses for any of them. The Police need to do their job.

    Criminals on the streets with knives are criminals on the streets with knives. There's been knife crime in this country for a lot longer than a week.
    And AIUI the person in question was arrested. In which case, job jobbed.

    But I do wonder why people are so keen to excuse, reduce and condone the right-wing (white) asshates?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    Afternoon. Just seen the absolute chaos in the first round of the men's 5000 metres.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,789

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    "... coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away."
    Do you have evidence for the claim that this 'tactic' was agreed by the police?

    As for your last paragraph: it's quite simple. If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'. And if those white racist asshats went home and the vigilantes are still there, they get arrested for that.

    But you are looking at the tiny problem and ignoring the massive white racist elephants in the room.

    And BTW, many of the communities threatened by the white racists asshats are not Muslim. They might even threaten your community as well, as you're an 'immigrant' (even if you were born here, apparently...)
    But it doesn't matter who started what at this point, you don't get it. I want all of the violent thugs off the streets, they are now perpetuating each other. Having Muslims with knives walking around the streets makes me feel no more safe than white fascists walking around the streets with knives. As a brown person I want the rioting to stop, the violence to stop and for anyone causing any violence to be arrested an dealt with.

    I don't have a side in this, I just don't want my wife to get stabbed by some Muslim thug who takes exception to her being white and Jewish and I don't want myself to get stabbed by some fascist who takes exception to me being Indian. Get them all off the streets regardless of their "motivation". There is simply no justification for anyone to be walking around the streets with weapons threatening people, regardless of their racial background or religion. Let the law enforcement get their job done.
    I do get it. I absolutely get it.

    But they are not perpetuating each other; that's just an excuse for the right-wing white asshats. And neither is the scale of it the same.

    The victims in this are the immigrant communities. Including yours.

    If you were in the UK, and the community of you and your family was being attacked by white right-wing asshats, what would you do? Would you like the police to come and tell you what they're doing, and so you can tell them your fears? Or would you do something more?
    No you don't know because you know what my "community" are doing? Staying indoors and waiting for the police to arrest the thugs. Do you see any Hindus or Sikhs out there with knives threatening people? Of course not, we're waiting for the police to do their jobs and get the violent thugs off the streets.

    You seem to be condoning violent acts by vigilantes and I don't understand why?
    No, I;m not. You seem to be desperate to divert attention away from the right-wing asshates that have started, and continue to start, this mess, and I don't understand why?

    As for Hindus and violence:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Leicester_unrest
    I'm not?! I want them off the streets, I have wanted them off the streets since day one, I've been hoping the police would start cracking heads every day and been disappointed they haven't done so.

    As for Leicester, anyone who was violent there deserves a huge prison sentence, regardless of their religion. Physical violence is not the answer and rarely is.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    BETTING KLAXON

    Robert Jenrick is having quite a good rioting season. He’s everywhere making measured and conservative sounding noises. I’d make him slight favourite to win the leadership right now

    He has issues tho. How come he’s so rich and got all these houses? Wiki is quite opaque. I presume he has mega wealthy parents and didn’t make £30 million by the age of 29

    If it weren’t for a privileged backstory (the Tories have had enough of that) he’d be a clear favourite

    People pay good money for the time of Cambridge educated lawyers.

    His wife is also a lawyer at some very prestigious firms too and very wealthy.

    I know how you love the Macron stuff but Mrs Jenrick is nearly a decade older than Robert.
    Ah. Genuinely useful. So he made all that money himself and/or married well?

    Good for him

    He’s probably the best bet for the Tories - Badenoch is too lightweight and Patel too polarising. They need something of a blank slate and someone prepared to say conservative things

    Crucially, he can point to his resignation as immigration minister and say he was principled on this pivotal issue. I reckon, sadly, this issue is probably going to grow in salience
    Yes, Jenrick's father was a Wolverhampton gas fitter who set up a fireplace business, his mother a secretary. His upbringing is provincial white working class/lower middle class though he went to Cambridge from Wolverhampton Grammar School and then became a lawyer.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/20/robert-jenrick-interview-right-wing-views/
    Presumably you will be happy with incessant gas fitter jokes in the vein of the PBTories and their toolmaker funmaking?

    (I wouldn't approve of either joke myself - too much respect for the skills and hard work involved.)
    Yes as it is positive advertising
    Ni problem with that *as far as Mr J is concerned* - it was the jokes about SKS's parents which were pretty repulsive, mind.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    "... coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away."
    Do you have evidence for the claim that this 'tactic' was agreed by the police?

    As for your last paragraph: it's quite simple. If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'. And if those white racist asshats went home and the vigilantes are still there, they get arrested for that.

    But you are looking at the tiny problem and ignoring the massive white racist elephants in the room.

    And BTW, many of the communities threatened by the white racists asshats are not Muslim. They might even threaten your community as well, as you're an 'immigrant' (even if you were born here, apparently...)
    But it doesn't matter who started what at this point, you don't get it. I want all of the violent thugs off the streets, they are now perpetuating each other. Having Muslims with knives walking around the streets makes me feel no more safe than white fascists walking around the streets with knives. As a brown person I want the rioting to stop, the violence to stop and for anyone causing any violence to be arrested an dealt with.

    I don't have a side in this, I just don't want my wife to get stabbed by some Muslim thug who takes exception to her being white and Jewish and I don't want myself to get stabbed by some fascist who takes exception to me being Indian. Get them all off the streets regardless of their "motivation". There is simply no justification for anyone to be walking around the streets with weapons threatening people, regardless of their racial background or religion. Let the law enforcement get their job done.
    I do get it. I absolutely get it.

    But they are not perpetuating each other; that's just an excuse for the right-wing white asshats. And neither is the scale of it the same.

    The victims in this are the immigrant communities. Including yours.

    If you were in the UK, and the community of you and your family was being attacked by white right-wing asshats, what would you do? Would you like the police to come and tell you what they're doing, and so you can tell them your fears? Or would you do something more?
    No you don't know because you know what my "community" are doing? Staying indoors and waiting for the police to arrest the thugs. Do you see any Hindus or Sikhs out there with knives threatening people? Of course not, we're waiting for the police to do their jobs and get the violent thugs off the streets.

    You seem to be condoning violent acts by vigilantes and I don't understand why?
    No, I;m not. You seem to be desperate to divert attention away from the right-wing asshates that have started, and continue to start, this mess, and I don't understand why?

    As for Hindus and violence:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Leicester_unrest
    Max seems desperate for asshats of all colours and creeds who break the law to be arrested.

    There's no excuses for any of them. The Police need to do their job.

    Criminals on the streets with knives are criminals on the streets with knives. There's been knife crime in this country for a lot longer than a week.
    And AIUI the person in question was arrested. In which case, job jobbed.

    But I do wonder why people are so keen to excuse, reduce and condone the right-wing (white) asshates?
    I'm not and neither is Max that I see. He's been calling on them to be arrested and quite rightly too.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,044
    MaxPB said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    They also chased that LBC reporter “for miles” - threatening him with weapons - and he said there was no sign of police anywhere

    There are also multiple contemporaneous tweets from average brummy citizens screaming: Where are the police???

    Seems to be an obvious police failure stemming in part from this two tier approach

    I have great sympathy for the coppers. They are attempting to keep extremists apart AND protect vulnerable minorities. But this was a screw up and the West Midland officer’s statement is disturbing and pathetic
    It's completely unacceptable and genuinely makes me want to leave the country. How have we got ourselves into this state where it's seen as racist to arrest people walking around with knives threatening others. It's fundamentally wrong.
    He was arrested and has been charged.

    Stop believing the hype.
    But why was he even allowed out there obviously brandishing a weapon? Why did the coppers not see that and immediately arrest him before he was able to threaten other people?
    Will nothing satisfy you?

    "He should be arrested!" you cry. He was arrested. "Well, he should have been arrested sooner!"

    Sure, in an ideal world, he should have been arrested sooner, but the police are quite stretched at the moment because of Islamophobic rioters.

    What is your solution to Islamophobic rioters? Oh, yes, I remember: it's to post about how Muslims are problematic.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    "... coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away."
    Do you have evidence for the claim that this 'tactic' was agreed by the police?

    As for your last paragraph: it's quite simple. If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'. And if those white racist asshats went home and the vigilantes are still there, they get arrested for that.

    But you are looking at the tiny problem and ignoring the massive white racist elephants in the room.

    And BTW, many of the communities threatened by the white racists asshats are not Muslim. They might even threaten your community as well, as you're an 'immigrant' (even if you were born here, apparently...)
    But it doesn't matter who started what at this point, you don't get it. I want all of the violent thugs off the streets, they are now perpetuating each other. Having Muslims with knives walking around the streets makes me feel no more safe than white fascists walking around the streets with knives. As a brown person I want the rioting to stop, the violence to stop and for anyone causing any violence to be arrested an dealt with.

    I don't have a side in this, I just don't want my wife to get stabbed by some Muslim thug who takes exception to her being white and Jewish and I don't want myself to get stabbed by some fascist who takes exception to me being Indian. Get them all off the streets regardless of their "motivation". There is simply no justification for anyone to be walking around the streets with weapons threatening people, regardless of their racial background or religion. Let the law enforcement get their job done.
    I do get it. I absolutely get it.

    But they are not perpetuating each other; that's just an excuse for the right-wing white asshats. And neither is the scale of it the same.

    The victims in this are the immigrant communities. Including yours.

    If you were in the UK, and the community of you and your family was being attacked by white right-wing asshats, what would you do? Would you like the police to come and tell you what they're doing, and so you can tell them your fears? Or would you do something more?
    No you don't know because you know what my "community" are doing? Staying indoors and waiting for the police to arrest the thugs. Do you see any Hindus or Sikhs out there with knives threatening people? Of course not, we're waiting for the police to do their jobs and get the violent thugs off the streets.

    You seem to be condoning violent acts by vigilantes and I don't understand why?
    No, I;m not. You seem to be desperate to divert attention away from the right-wing asshates that have started, and continue to start, this mess, and I don't understand why?

    As for Hindus and violence:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Leicester_unrest
    Max seems desperate for asshats of all colours and creeds who break the law to be arrested.

    There's no excuses for any of them. The Police need to do their job.

    Criminals on the streets with knives are criminals on the streets with knives. There's been knife crime in this country for a lot longer than a week.
    And AIUI the person in question was arrested. In which case, job jobbed.

    But I do wonder why people are so keen to excuse, reduce and condone the right-wing (white) asshates?
    No idea what you get out of spending your morning building an army of straw men. It’s tedious enough to read, yet alone write.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    Three years for first rioter in Southport.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950

    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/martynziegler/status/1821136551562092728

    Martyn Ziegler @martynziegler
    Rodri and Morata banned for one match each by UEFA for ‘Gibraltar is Spanish’ chants

    Hmmm, UEFA have created an unfortunate precedent there, I suspect people in Serbia/Kosovo/Albania will take notice.
    Yer carn’t even chant ‘you’ll find Calais lying in my heart’ at the football any more.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,344
    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    The MAGA were always going to depict Harris as far left (by US standards), so not sure there are many votes there.

    Key for the Dems is to enthuse the base and GOTV especially women, the young and minorities. We saw in our election how critical that is. The Ed Davey style is the way to go, positive and fun.
    I agree with the first point but that is why there were advantages in having someone more moderate (like Biden was) on the ticket for balance. She has left herself open and it remains to be seen whether this finds any traction or not.


    I am concerned that there is an assumption that this is over because we would want it to be so. Trump is still ahead and this election is still to be won or lost. Harris has had 3 very good weeks but that has got her back to near parity, it has not given her a decisive lead.
    Quite: Harris's accession, the Vance VP pick, and the general organization of the Democrats have turned this into a genuinely competitive Presidential election.

    But let us not forget that in the US - as in pretty much the entire developed world - prices have risen faster than wages over the last four years. Voters don't like getting poorer, and generally punish the party in power.

    The only reason that this election is competitive is because Trump is such a divisive candidate, and because Republicans (other than Trump) have engaged in a politically unpopular campaign to criminalize abortion.

    I would make Trump still the narrow favorite, but it could easily go either way - and a landslide victory for either candidate is not impossible.
    Some Leon level forecasting there.
    Literally anything can happen, and that prediction will be correct.
    I will revise the forecast as we get nearer the election.

    But here's my order of likelihood outcomes:

    1. Very narrow Republican victory, with the Sunbelt coming through for Trump, but the rust belt remaining blue.

    2. Very narrow Democrat victory, with at least one of the Sunbelt states holding solid.

    3. Solid Democrat victory, with the Sunbelt staying blue, and a couple of competitive states -like Iowa or Florida - flipping blue.

    4. Solid Republican victory, with all of Trump's 2016 wins, plus Virginia and Nevada.
    On (1) - doesn't Harris win if she holds the 3 rust belt marginals?
    You are correct: it's 270 to 268... So Trump needs to win Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, plus one of the rustbelt states.

    Maybe I need to make Harris the very slight favourite.
    If people are more concerned about abortion, Harris wins. If people are more concerned about the economy and immigration, Trump wins.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    "... coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away."
    Do you have evidence for the claim that this 'tactic' was agreed by the police?

    As for your last paragraph: it's quite simple. If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'. And if those white racist asshats went home and the vigilantes are still there, they get arrested for that.

    But you are looking at the tiny problem and ignoring the massive white racist elephants in the room.

    And BTW, many of the communities threatened by the white racists asshats are not Muslim. They might even threaten your community as well, as you're an 'immigrant' (even if you were born here, apparently...)
    But it doesn't matter who started what at this point, you don't get it. I want all of the violent thugs off the streets, they are now perpetuating each other. Having Muslims with knives walking around the streets makes me feel no more safe than white fascists walking around the streets with knives. As a brown person I want the rioting to stop, the violence to stop and for anyone causing any violence to be arrested an dealt with.

    I don't have a side in this, I just don't want my wife to get stabbed by some Muslim thug who takes exception to her being white and Jewish and I don't want myself to get stabbed by some fascist who takes exception to me being Indian. Get them all off the streets regardless of their "motivation". There is simply no justification for anyone to be walking around the streets with weapons threatening people, regardless of their racial background or religion. Let the law enforcement get their job done.
    I do get it. I absolutely get it.

    But they are not perpetuating each other; that's just an excuse for the right-wing white asshats. And neither is the scale of it the same.

    The victims in this are the immigrant communities. Including yours.

    If you were in the UK, and the community of you and your family was being attacked by white right-wing asshats, what would you do? Would you like the police to come and tell you what they're doing, and so you can tell them your fears? Or would you do something more?
    No you don't know because you know what my "community" are doing? Staying indoors and waiting for the police to arrest the thugs. Do you see any Hindus or Sikhs out there with knives threatening people? Of course not, we're waiting for the police to do their jobs and get the violent thugs off the streets.

    You seem to be condoning violent acts by vigilantes and I don't understand why?
    No, I;m not. You seem to be desperate to divert attention away from the right-wing asshates that have started, and continue to start, this mess, and I don't understand why?

    As for Hindus and violence:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Leicester_unrest
    Max seems desperate for asshats of all colours and creeds who break the law to be arrested.

    There's no excuses for any of them. The Police need to do their job.

    Criminals on the streets with knives are criminals on the streets with knives. There's been knife crime in this country for a lot longer than a week.
    And AIUI the person in question was arrested. In which case, job jobbed.

    But I do wonder why people are so keen to excuse, reduce and condone the right-wing (white) asshates?
    I'm not and neither is Max that I see. He's been calling on them to be arrested and quite rightly too.
    Yes, but all of his anger seems to be on the Muslim guy. This *one* guy is getting so much airtime, whilst the white right-wing asshates who tried to set fire to a hotel with immigrants in are quietly ignored. Despite their crimes being so much bigger in scale.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,938

    Leon said:

    BETTING KLAXON

    Robert Jenrick is having quite a good rioting season. He’s everywhere making measured and conservative sounding noises. I’d make him slight favourite to win the leadership right now

    He has issues tho. How come he’s so rich and got all these houses? Wiki is quite opaque. I presume he has mega wealthy parents and didn’t make £30 million by the age of 29

    If it weren’t for a privileged backstory (the Tories have had enough of that) he’d be a clear favourite

    People pay good money for the time of Cambridge educated lawyers.

    His wife is also a lawyer at some very prestigious firms too and very wealthy.

    I know how you love the Macron stuff but Mrs Jenrick is nearly a decade older than Robert.
    Good luck to conservatives if they elect Jenrick.

    He'll be out within two years.
    As the owner of a leasehold property in central London, I have been following Jenrick's career since he was was secretary of state for housing.

    And I can honestly state that out of all the current picks for the Conservative Leadership, he is the only one I can promise I will NEVER vote for the Conservatives as long as he is leader.

    The guy was hopeless at best, venal at worst, embroiled in planning scandals, and clearly favoured developers over homeowners. My flat is probably worth about 25% less than it should be, all thanks to the action (or inaction) of Robert Jenrick.

    And that's before we get onto his lockdown breaking, mural painting nastiness. If it's Jenrick, I'd sooner vote Green, SNP or Galloway than Conservative. Even if he promised to reduce my capital gains tax burden to zero and offered me a suitcase full of cash (possibly taken from his developer mates like Desmond), I would not vote for him. That is how great my hatred of him is.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    moonshine said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    "... coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away."
    Do you have evidence for the claim that this 'tactic' was agreed by the police?

    As for your last paragraph: it's quite simple. If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'. And if those white racist asshats went home and the vigilantes are still there, they get arrested for that.

    But you are looking at the tiny problem and ignoring the massive white racist elephants in the room.

    And BTW, many of the communities threatened by the white racists asshats are not Muslim. They might even threaten your community as well, as you're an 'immigrant' (even if you were born here, apparently...)
    But it doesn't matter who started what at this point, you don't get it. I want all of the violent thugs off the streets, they are now perpetuating each other. Having Muslims with knives walking around the streets makes me feel no more safe than white fascists walking around the streets with knives. As a brown person I want the rioting to stop, the violence to stop and for anyone causing any violence to be arrested an dealt with.

    I don't have a side in this, I just don't want my wife to get stabbed by some Muslim thug who takes exception to her being white and Jewish and I don't want myself to get stabbed by some fascist who takes exception to me being Indian. Get them all off the streets regardless of their "motivation". There is simply no justification for anyone to be walking around the streets with weapons threatening people, regardless of their racial background or religion. Let the law enforcement get their job done.
    I do get it. I absolutely get it.

    But they are not perpetuating each other; that's just an excuse for the right-wing white asshats. And neither is the scale of it the same.

    The victims in this are the immigrant communities. Including yours.

    If you were in the UK, and the community of you and your family was being attacked by white right-wing asshats, what would you do? Would you like the police to come and tell you what they're doing, and so you can tell them your fears? Or would you do something more?
    No you don't know because you know what my "community" are doing? Staying indoors and waiting for the police to arrest the thugs. Do you see any Hindus or Sikhs out there with knives threatening people? Of course not, we're waiting for the police to do their jobs and get the violent thugs off the streets.

    You seem to be condoning violent acts by vigilantes and I don't understand why?
    No, I;m not. You seem to be desperate to divert attention away from the right-wing asshates that have started, and continue to start, this mess, and I don't understand why?

    As for Hindus and violence:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Leicester_unrest
    Max seems desperate for asshats of all colours and creeds who break the law to be arrested.

    There's no excuses for any of them. The Police need to do their job.

    Criminals on the streets with knives are criminals on the streets with knives. There's been knife crime in this country for a lot longer than a week.
    And AIUI the person in question was arrested. In which case, job jobbed.

    But I do wonder why people are so keen to excuse, reduce and condone the right-wing (white) asshates?
    No idea what you get out of spending your morning building an army of straw men. It’s tedious enough to read, yet alone write.
    I'm spending a little time playing with my son, and doing some hobby coding. And I don't think they're strawmen.

    If you find what I write 'tedious', either put me on ignore or stop reading. I'm not fussed either way.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    edited August 7
    dixiedean said:

    Three years for first rioter in Southport.

    (Second rioter) Geiran receives 30 months.

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/updates-court-live-rioters-sentenced-29691508

    Edit - third Liam Riley gets 20 months as it's reduced by his guilty plea..

    Also worth saying that Derek Drummond was sentenced to 4.5 years reduced to 3 due to his guilty plea.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    Jenrick has made a big mistake suggesting people who say "Allahu Akbar" in public should be arrested.

    Far-right rioting and he comes out with that? I appreciate the Conservative membership is pretty right wing but surely the remaining MPs won't tolerate that kind of rabble rousing.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    dixiedean said:

    Three years for first rioter in Southport.

    And 2 and a half for the next one.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    edited August 7

    Tim Walz is apparently really into maps.

    Maps are one of my fetishes.

    Can he move over here so I can vote for him?

    https://minnesotareformer.com/2024/08/06/former-geography-teacher-tim-walz-is-really-into-maps/

    "In 1993, he asked his sophomores where they thought the next genocide might happen, based on the geographic data. They pinpointed Rwanda. The following year, the Rwandan Genocide occurred. The New York Times interviewed some of the students involved in the project in 2008, when Walz was a U.S. congressman."

    That sounds like a slightly odd thing to do tbh.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    You've got a load of racist asshats rioting. It just so happens that on this occasion, those asshats are majority-white. The targets are tending to be non-whites. I'd argue it makes sense to talk to the victims / targets of those asshats, and ensure that a) they will feel safer; b) get feedback from them on what would make them feel safe; and c) try to convince them not to take the law into their own hands in 'self-defence'.

    It Alex Harmstong wants to represent racist asshats, let him. But you know what that would make him.
    Just so we’re clear. You’re cool with the authorities letting one group in society “self police” by roaming the streets in hoods with machetes and clubs?
    No; but I don't think that is what he was saying.

    Just so we're clear: You're cool with racist asshats trying to kill immigrants?
    No of course I’m not. When have I ever given the impression that I am? But I am pretty uneasy that authorities seem to be selectively surrendering our streets to mob rule.

    It’s been such a failure of comms this whole thing. It’s easy. “The only division we recognise in our society is between the law abiding and criminality.”
    You seem *very* keen to divert the blame for this mess off the asshats who are doing it and onto 'others'.

    I'd argue the only 'failure in comms' is people making misrepresenting stuff up and making stuff up.
    Anyone who is using violence or the threat of violence to intimidate others, needs removing from society for a very long time. It’s not complicated JJ.
    Who, in your view, is instigating this violence?
    Does it matter? Taking to the streets with a weapon is not justifiable under any circumstance. Let law enforcement deal with it, vigilantes will just make things worse and innocent people will get hurt just like that guy who's now in hospital with a lacerated liver after being targeted by a Muslim gang for the heinous crime of going to the pub.
    People on this thread are shitting on a police officer for daring to talk to *victim* communities from this violence, in part to stop them from counter-protesting. Do you find that odd?

    And it needs to be clear: the victims of this violence are generally the immigrant communities, *not* the racist asshats who are 'protesting'. If those racist asshats went home and wanked heir little dicks, there would be none of this particular violence.
    They're talking to "community leaders" or "community elders" and coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away.

    So you're basically saying yes, it's fine that there's a bloke sitting in hospital with a lacerated liver because he went to the pub and a gang of Muslim youths took exception to it.

    I don't want the fascists on the street and I don't want vigilante Muslims on the street. It doesn't matter who started what at this point, anyone causing violence, walking around with knives or threatening people needs to be dealt with immediately and without sympathy. Get the violence off the streets and perpetrators in jail.
    "... coming up with accepted or agreed policing tactics, one of which was to allow young men armed with knives chase a TV camera crew away."
    Do you have evidence for the claim that this 'tactic' was agreed by the police?

    As for your last paragraph: it's quite simple. If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'. And if those white racist asshats went home and the vigilantes are still there, they get arrested for that.

    But you are looking at the tiny problem and ignoring the massive white racist elephants in the room.

    And BTW, many of the communities threatened by the white racists asshats are not Muslim. They might even threaten your community as well, as you're an 'immigrant' (even if you were born here, apparently...)
    But it doesn't matter who started what at this point, you don't get it. I want all of the violent thugs off the streets, they are now perpetuating each other. Having Muslims with knives walking around the streets makes me feel no more safe than white fascists walking around the streets with knives. As a brown person I want the rioting to stop, the violence to stop and for anyone causing any violence to be arrested an dealt with.

    I don't have a side in this, I just don't want my wife to get stabbed by some Muslim thug who takes exception to her being white and Jewish and I don't want myself to get stabbed by some fascist who takes exception to me being Indian. Get them all off the streets regardless of their "motivation". There is simply no justification for anyone to be walking around the streets with weapons threatening people, regardless of their racial background or religion. Let the law enforcement get their job done.
    I do get it. I absolutely get it.

    But they are not perpetuating each other; that's just an excuse for the right-wing white asshats. And neither is the scale of it the same.

    The victims in this are the immigrant communities. Including yours.

    If you were in the UK, and the community of you and your family was being attacked by white right-wing asshats, what would you do? Would you like the police to come and tell you what they're doing, and so you can tell them your fears? Or would you do something more?
    No you don't know because you know what my "community" are doing? Staying indoors and waiting for the police to arrest the thugs. Do you see any Hindus or Sikhs out there with knives threatening people? Of course not, we're waiting for the police to do their jobs and get the violent thugs off the streets.

    You seem to be condoning violent acts by vigilantes and I don't understand why?
    No, I;m not. You seem to be desperate to divert attention away from the right-wing asshates that have started, and continue to start, this mess, and I don't understand why?

    As for Hindus and violence:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Leicester_unrest
    Max seems desperate for asshats of all colours and creeds who break the law to be arrested.

    There's no excuses for any of them. The Police need to do their job.

    Criminals on the streets with knives are criminals on the streets with knives. There's been knife crime in this country for a lot longer than a week.
    And AIUI the person in question was arrested. In which case, job jobbed.

    But I do wonder why people are so keen to excuse, reduce and condone the right-wing (white) asshates?
    I'm not and neither is Max that I see. He's been calling on them to be arrested and quite rightly too.
    Yes, but all of his anger seems to be on the Muslim guy. This *one* guy is getting so much airtime, whilst the white right-wing asshates who tried to set fire to a hotel with immigrants in are quietly ignored. Despite their crimes being so much bigger in scale.
    Every single post of this conversation I can see Max has said that the Police need to target everyone.

    Its you, not Max, that seems obsessed with whataboutery or making excuses like "If the white racist asshats stopped rioting and threatening communities, then those communities wouldn't need 'vigilantes'"

    Nobody in the UK needs vigilantes. Anyone threatening people is breaking the law and should be arrested.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Three years for first rioter in Southport.

    And 2 and a half for the next one.
    And 20 months for the third.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    Nigelb said:

    Punching up is good, punching down isn't.

    Vance is someone who came from socioeconomic deprivation and made a success of his life.

    Perhaps that's why he's resented by so many from more affluent backgrounds.

    From a bit of a distance I’m not sure that’s the reason.
    It’s more what he says and does.
    Yes, it's since he became a religious nut who wants to police women's wombs.

    2014 Vance was fairly normal.
    Again from a distance (not sure I’ll ever get the nuances of ‘middle class’ for the US), Walz seems to have pretty impeccable humble beginnings credentials. Also great taste.

    https://x.com/panasonicdx4500/status/1820990938493136902?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,865
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    That Betfair graph shows that if a week is a long time in politics, the past month has been its own geological epoch.

    On 15th July, Trump was registering a 71% likelihood of being President again. Harris was on just 6%. Three weeks on, it's 50-47. Trump down 21%, Harris up 41%.

    In three weeks.

    And with the Democratic Convention wrapping up on the 22nd August, who can predict what those numbers be in another three weeks...?

    Big events can have big effects.

    Biden's replacement by Harris was a big event with a big effect.

    If we get more big events then there might be more big effects.

    Otherwise not.
    I suspect there will be quite a few big events in the coming months: some will be positive for Trump and others for Harris.

    It's likely to be a wild ride.
    So what you’re saying is just swing trade and lay the favourite?
    I think - if either candidate is showing more than a 55% probability - then you sell them.
    Wouldn't it be easier to back the outsider ?
    In theory, it's the same trade either way, but in practice it depends both on your existing position, and the relative odds.
    For quite a while, for instance, you could get significantly longer odds backing Harris than you could laying Trump, even after it was obvious she'd got the nomination.
    And for big players, there is generally more liquidity on the favourite, so they can deploy larger stakes.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    The MAGA were always going to depict Harris as far left (by US standards), so not sure there are many votes there.

    Key for the Dems is to enthuse the base and GOTV especially women, the young and minorities. We saw in our election how critical that is. The Ed Davey style is the way to go, positive and fun.
    I agree with the first point but that is why there were advantages in having someone more moderate (like Biden was) on the ticket for balance. She has left herself open and it remains to be seen whether this finds any traction or not.


    I am concerned that there is an assumption that this is over because we would want it to be so. Trump is still ahead and this election is still to be won or lost. Harris has had 3 very good weeks but that has got her back to near parity, it has not given her a decisive lead.
    Quite: Harris's accession, the Vance VP pick, and the general organization of the Democrats have turned this into a genuinely competitive Presidential election.

    But let us not forget that in the US - as in pretty much the entire developed world - prices have risen faster than wages over the last four years. Voters don't like getting poorer, and generally punish the party in power.

    The only reason that this election is competitive is because Trump is such a divisive candidate, and because Republicans (other than Trump) have engaged in a politically unpopular campaign to criminalize abortion.

    I would make Trump still the narrow favorite, but it could easily go either way - and a landslide victory for either candidate is not impossible.
    Some Leon level forecasting there.
    Literally anything can happen, and that prediction will be correct.
    I will revise the forecast as we get nearer the election.

    But here's my order of likelihood outcomes:

    1. Very narrow Republican victory, with the Sunbelt coming through for Trump, but the rust belt remaining blue.

    2. Very narrow Democrat victory, with at least one of the Sunbelt states holding solid.

    3. Solid Democrat victory, with the Sunbelt staying blue, and a couple of competitive states -like Iowa or Florida - flipping blue.

    4. Solid Republican victory, with all of Trump's 2016 wins, plus Virginia and Nevada.
    On (1) - doesn't Harris win if she holds the 3 rust belt marginals?
    You are correct: it's 270 to 268... So Trump needs to win Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, plus one of the rustbelt states.

    Maybe I need to make Harris the very slight favourite.
    If people are more concerned about abortion, Harris wins. If people are more concerned about the economy and immigration, Trump wins.
    You missed out those concerned about the cogency of the respective candidates too. That is going to be key. If voters think Trump is fine the EC goes to Trump. If they think Trump is as mad as a bag of frogs and shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the nuclear codes he loses.

    The Biden precedent is interesting.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    Eabhal said:

    Jenrick has made a big mistake suggesting people who say "Allahu Akbar" in public should be arrested.

    Far-right rioting and he comes out with that? I appreciate the Conservative membership is pretty right wing but surely the remaining MPs won't tolerate that kind of rabble rousing.

    It’d be such a shitty and unenforceable law.

    I’d be fine to chant in public ‘God is great’?

    Or

    ‘No officer, I was sneezing.’
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Three years for first rioter in Southport.

    And 2 and a half for the next one.
    And 20 months for the third.
    'The facts of that case are illuminating'

    Judge Menary says: “You have in the past received prison sentences, most recently receiving a community order on September 8 last year. The facts of that case are illuminating. They involved you sending messages to a woman, threatening to come and get her and her children and travelling to the south of England where she was.

    “That is the sort of brave and principled man you are.”
  • Eabhal said:

    Jenrick has made a big mistake suggesting people who say "Allahu Akbar" in public should be arrested.

    Far-right rioting and he comes out with that? I appreciate the Conservative membership is pretty right wing but surely the remaining MPs won't tolerate that kind of rabble rousing.

    It’d be such a shitty and unenforceable law.

    I’d be fine to chant in public ‘God is great’?

    Or

    ‘No officer, I was sneezing.’
    'No officer, I was sneezing' is a bit of a mouthful to chant.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782
    moonshine said:

    kjh said:

    moonshine said:

    Jenrick is playing a dangerous game, accusing Starmer of double standards over policing.

    No-one's produced any concrete evidence of thst so far , and it potentialky plays into Musk's Trumpian narrative.

    Rather than taking shots at Musk, why don’t you head over to his platform and see the evidence for yourself? If you prefer, you can try Sky News instead, where you will find similar evidence.
    Coming from someone who didn't have the gumption to look at the account that he linked to as a credibility check. And this is not the first time. Sometimes ago you were pulled up on linking to an account that turned out to be a QAnon post. In both cases it took less than 30 seconds to drill down on the accounts to identify the facts.
    This debate has gone to cuckoo land. You don’t have to go to Twitter if you don’t want to. Because the Birmingham police chief has confirmed with his own voice, on Sky News no less, that policing approaches are vastly different depending on background of the mob. His testimony is backed up by the lack of blue lights for hours at Yardley, but also for example the video of the copper kindly advising people to “leave their weapons at the mosque”.

    The appropriate conversation, which some have already cordially begun here, is not whether we have two tier policing, but whether that is sensible and appropriate in some cases. I am open to being persuaded that it is but my gut feel is that in the long run, it is grievously misadvised.

    You meanwhile are still at the childish tantrum stage of throwing QAnon slurs around.
    I'm not talking about that point. I'm talking about the fact that you suggested that someone should go to Musk's account to find out the facts. That is coming from someone who yesterday thought it reasonable for Musk to link to an account that was beyond appalling and would be a criminal offence in this country and thought it reasonable for him not to make a 30 second check on the credibility of the account he was linking to before making the link.

    I am also referring to you, who a year or two ago linked to a QAnon account and didn't spend 30 seconds checking it out before doing so and posted the contents as fact.

    That is not a slur that is a fact and if you think otherwise sue me.

    Why am I having the 'childish tantrum'? Well because I object to people posting QAnon stuff here or who justify the posting of links to appallingly racist and anti-semitic accounts that were beyond awful, they would be illegal here.

    I take it that you still haven't even looked at the account still, but twice now have been happy to take stuff on face value whereas a 30 second check would show you have gone down a very nasty rabbit hole.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited August 7
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Three years for first rioter in Southport.

    And 2 and a half for the next one.
    And 20 months for the third.
    A lot less than the JSO zoom call rioters.

    I am sure Musk will be complaining about two tier justice.
This discussion has been closed.