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Sofa so good, Tim Walz is an inspired pick – politicalbetting.com

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  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,238
    edited August 7
    .
    tlg86 said:

    Starmer needs to nip this in the bud:

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1820881508413899082

    Two-tier policing clear as day.

    At the risk of whataboutery of my own, less widely reported is that most of the group went into the pub to apologise for the damage by what they called a small group of trouble makers. They helped clear up and agreed to compensate the damage. The pub has now banned the man who was beaten up, for provoking the attack and issued a statement praising community leaders.

    This won't protect any of the group from prosecution but perhaps there's a difference in degree from the violent battle against the police happening at the same time in Plymouth or the man beaten up and in critical condition in Belfast, which people for some reason don't think was important enough to mention unlike the disturbance in Birmingham.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,935
    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    I think the Trump outriders are grubbing around for crumbs of comfort!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,269
    FF43 said:

    .

    tlg86 said:

    Starmer needs to nip this in the bud:

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1820881508413899082

    Two-tier policing clear as day.

    At the risk of whataboutery of my own, less widely reported is that most of the group went into the pub to apologise for the damage by what they called a small group of trouble makers. They helped clear up and agreed to compensate the damage. The pub has now banned the man who was beaten up for provoking the attack and issued a statement praising community leaders.
    Your interpretation of this is incredibly naive.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,500
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    The MAGA were always going to depict Harris as far left (by US standards), so not sure there are many votes there.

    Key for the Dems is to enthuse the base and GOTV especially women, the young and minorities. We saw in our election how critical that is. The Ed Davey style is the way to go, positive and fun.
    I agree with the first point but that is why there were advantages in having someone more moderate (like Biden was) on the ticket for balance. She has left herself open and it remains to be seen whether this finds any traction or not.


    I am concerned that there is an assumption that this is over because we would want it to be so. Trump is still ahead and this election is still to be won or lost. Harris has had 3 very good weeks but that has got her back to near parity, it has not given her a decisive lead.
    I don’t know enough about Walz or Dem politics to comment on his merits, but I agree on your essential point: all I can see is GOP people expressing relief she didn’t pick Shapiro

    I’d still have Harris as fave, but maybe a bit less fave, now
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,785
    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Punching up is good, punching down isn't.

    Vance is someone who came from socioeconomic deprivation and made a success of his life.

    Perhaps that's why he's resented by so many from more affluent backgrounds.

    Or perhaps people don’t like him because he’s made some awful comments about women . Coming from a poor background and making a success doesn’t give you a free pass to be an arsehole .
    Then attack Vance for his views.

    Instead of spouting crap about furniture.
    You clearly haven't noticed the huge number of Democratic ads attacking Vance for his views. You should get about more.

    As for the couch thing.

    GOP lies: Dems tried to kill Trump, crashed the economy, abort live babies, and are pedophiles.

    Dem lies: JD Vance may have fucked a couch.

    … and y’all WONDER why we’re have fun with the couch nonsense?

    https://x.com/ElieNYC/status/1820973662859882608
    I don't spend my time looking at political ads in a foreign country.

    In other worlds I DO GET ABOUT MORE. Literally.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976
    https://x.com/RLCotterill/status/1820859049803468978

    White Man who was attacked in Birmingham is barred
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,412

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    Shapiro not being picked revealed that the number of Jew haters among the Dems is at a level capable of affecting elections.
    Does it ?
    The vast majority of Jewish representation in Congress is Democratic, of course. And Shapiro himself is a very popular Democratic governor.
    The Dems have the support of both Jews and Jew haters.

    Its an interesting source of friction.

    What we have seen in the western world during recent generations has been Jews trending politically to the right and Jew hatred moving politically to the left.

    The USA has seen the second element but, not yet, much of the first.
    Because Jews in Golders Green never voted for Mrs Thatcher to be their MP? This is nuts.

    As for the Dems, Josh Shapiro was in the running until the day before the announcement. They probably already knew he is Jewish by that point. It's not as if he was hiding it. To conclude antisemitism cost Shapiro the VP nominee slot is bizarre.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    Shapiro not being picked revealed that the number of Jew haters among the Dems is at a level capable of affecting elections.
    Does it ?
    The vast majority of Jewish representation in Congress is Democratic, of course. And Shapiro himself is a very popular Democratic governor.
    The Dems have the support of both Jews and Jew haters.

    Its an interesting source of friction.

    What we have seen in the western world during recent generations has been Jews trending politically to the right and Jew hatred moving politically to the left.

    The USA has seen the second element but, not yet, much of the first.
    Because Jews in Golders Green never voted for Mrs Thatcher to be their MP? This is nuts.

    As for the Dems, Josh Shapiro was in the running until the day before the announcement. They probably already knew he is Jewish by that point. It's not as if he was hiding it. To conclude antisemitism cost Shapiro the VP nominee slot is bizarre.
    With a name like Shapiro, he was keeping that Jewish heritage closely under wraps...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,890

    FF43 said:

    .

    tlg86 said:

    Starmer needs to nip this in the bud:

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1820881508413899082

    Two-tier policing clear as day.

    At the risk of whataboutery of my own, less widely reported is that most of the group went into the pub to apologise for the damage by what they called a small group of trouble makers. They helped clear up and agreed to compensate the damage. The pub has now banned the man who was beaten up for provoking the attack and issued a statement praising community leaders.
    Your interpretation of this is incredibly naive.
    Probably a far, far, less naive interpretation than those taking Nigel Farage tweets and retweets at face value.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited August 7

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    Shapiro not being picked revealed that the number of Jew haters among the Dems is at a level capable of affecting elections.
    Does it ?
    The vast majority of Jewish representation in Congress is Democratic, of course. And Shapiro himself is a very popular Democratic governor.
    The Dems have the support of both Jews and Jew haters.

    Its an interesting source of friction.

    What we have seen in the western world during recent generations has been Jews trending politically to the right and Jew hatred moving politically to the left.

    The USA has seen the second element but, not yet, much of the first.
    Because Jews in Golders Green never voted for Mrs Thatcher to be their MP? This is nuts.

    As for the Dems, Josh Shapiro was in the running until the day before the announcement. They probably already knew he is Jewish by that point. It's not as if he was hiding it. To conclude antisemitism cost Shapiro the VP nominee slot is bizarre.
    With a name like Shapiro, he was keeping that Jewish heritage closely under wraps...
    Does anyone if he was related to Robert Shapiro, who was one of O.J. Simpson’s dream team of lawyers.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    https://x.com/SteveMiran/status/1815749286094582126

    Rounini et al…

    In short, the US Treasury has overridden the independence of the Fed and actively counteracted restrictive monetary policy by biasing debt issuance to short term bills rather than long term bonds. “ATI” - Activist Treasury Issuance.

    This has the same impact as stealth quantitative easing, worth a 100bps rate cut in their central estimate but as high as 160bps. Thus far worth $800bn of injected liquidity, forecast to hit $2tr in the coming quarters.

    This political intervention into monetary policy is on top of initiatives such as the 2023 Bank Term Funding Programme, which peaked at $165bn, socialising losses of the banking sector through inflation.

    As I’ve said many times, the Biden “jobs miracle” is a total charade and this White House has managed the economy in a grotesquely irresponsible way. Feels a lot like a powder keg ready to blow, things are only being kept going by expansionary monetary and fiscal policy - 7.5% deficit in 2023 at a time of “full employment”. 2025 might be very choppy indeed.

    Anyway, go back to talking about JD Vance and a sofa.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Ratters said:

    It is notable that the Harris-Walz attacks have been focussed squarely at Trump and Vance, and not their supporters (the Hillary mistake).

    I struggle to see how independents in America will choose Trump/Vance over them. Particularly as we have a motivated and unified left driving turnout.

    I'm going to go as far as predict it won't be close in electoral college votes on the day.

    Independents in the US are not left though, they are generally fiscally conservative and socially moderate.

    Even the UK left seem more enthusiastic about Harris and Walz on twitter than they are about Starmer. Yet it was Starmer who won a general election not their hero Corbyn even if he united the left behind him and increased turnout amongst the young
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,785

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    Shapiro not being picked revealed that the number of Jew haters among the Dems is at a level capable of affecting elections.
    Does it ?
    The vast majority of Jewish representation in Congress is Democratic, of course. And Shapiro himself is a very popular Democratic governor.
    The Dems have the support of both Jews and Jew haters.

    Its an interesting source of friction.

    What we have seen in the western world during recent generations has been Jews trending politically to the right and Jew hatred moving politically to the left.

    The USA has seen the second element but, not yet, much of the first.
    Because Jews in Golders Green never voted for Mrs Thatcher to be their MP? This is nuts.

    As for the Dems, Josh Shapiro was in the running until the day before the announcement. They probably already knew he is Jewish by that point. It's not as if he was hiding it. To conclude antisemitism cost Shapiro the VP nominee slot is bizarre.
    It was a factor - 'progressives' didn't like Shapiro:

    The strongest argument against picking Shapiro is rooted in his hardline stance against both the Gaza protests on Pennsylvania university campuses—some of which he compared to white supremacist encampments—and the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement seeking to reverse Israel’s brutal human-rights record in the Occupied Territories. In The New Republic, writer David Klion made the case that Shapiro’s elevation to the ticket would kill off much of the movement energy now marshaled behind Harris’s run.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/josh-shapiro-vp-kamala-harris-wrong/

    Harris is no political fool and capable of seeing the advantages and disadvantages each potential VP candidate brought.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not that great a pick, since I lost money on it.

    Won't Kamala please think of my book?

    I did warn you the VP market was unpredictable. Although I missed the chance to short Shapiro, I was green on both of them.
    I missed too.

    I really do think that the Americans need to revise their over protracted Primary system, which seems to consume vast amounts of time and money, and create division within parties. Our parties might want to ponder this too.

    The last fortnight has come up with a better pairing through a much shorter process and unified the party.

    One of the Harris/Walz advantages is to be new and fresh, generating interest and attention at exactly the right time and 3 months to go.
    And most important, generating money.

    I suspect there will be another big uptick in donations after the addition of Walz to the ticket. perhaps even from some big corporate names. Wisconsin under Governor Walz has been very good at attracting inward investment. Corporate USA doesn't seem too worried by the "left wing" tag. Because it is nonsense.
    In that respect, Shapiro and Walz are pretty similar.
    And both have a pretty good record on cutting red tape - "permitting reform" in US parlance" - to enable development.

    If by 'left wing' they mean pro right to choose; public education; public healthcare, then sure. But those are all popular positions.

    As Waltz puts it: "I'm the monster who introduce free school meals".
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,785
    I do wonder if Harris is more politically talented and ruthless than people have previously expected.

    Biden's removal happened in a timescale which has worked perfectly for her.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,500

    eek said:

    So yesterday I posted how Elon Musk is fine with virulent antisemitism on his platform but today he restricts criticism of the GOP.

    #TwoTierElon


    I think that makes X / Twitter a publisher which opens up a whole extra set of responsibilities.

    Elon really isn't very bright..
    Indeed, he’s fine with tweets telling a Jew that Dirty Jews are the next ones that should be targeted by the rioters but criticism of the GOP is a no no.
    He’s basically come out as a Trump supporter. And he’s slanting the site that way. Previously, it was slanted very much the other way

    As far as I know, in American law, he has no duty to offer balance or neutrality, so he can do what he likes. But maybe we have some American legal experts who can finesse this?

    The answer, surely, is for all the people that dislike this to head off to Threads or Bluesky or that Mastothingy
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    Punching up is good, punching down isn't.

    Vance is someone who came from socioeconomic deprivation and made a success of his life.

    Perhaps that's why he's resented by so many from more affluent backgrounds.

    Or perhaps people don’t like him because he’s made some awful comments about women . Coming from a poor background and making a success doesn’t give you a free pass to be an arsehole .
    Then attack Vance for his views.

    Instead of spouting crap about furniture.
    You clearly haven't noticed the huge number of Democratic ads attacking Vance for his views. You should get about more.

    As for the couch thing.

    GOP lies: Dems tried to kill Trump, crashed the economy, abort live babies, and are pedophiles.

    Dem lies: JD Vance may have fucked a couch.

    … and y’all WONDER why we’re have fun with the couch nonsense?

    https://x.com/ElieNYC/status/1820973662859882608
    I don't spend my time looking at political ads in a foreign country.

    In other worlds I DO GET ABOUT MORE. Literally.
    Fair enough.
    But don't then critique the Democrats for not doing something they're spending a lot of time doing. If you're going to comment on US politics, then you can't have it both ways.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not that great a pick, since I lost money on it.

    Won't Kamala please think of my book?

    I did warn you the VP market was unpredictable. Although I missed the chance to short Shapiro, I was green on both of them.
    I missed too.

    I really do think that the Americans need to revise their over protracted Primary system, which seems to consume vast amounts of time and money, and create division within parties. Our parties might want to ponder this too.

    The last fortnight has come up with a better pairing through a much shorter process and unified the party.

    One of the Harris/Walz advantages is to be new and fresh, generating interest and attention at exactly the right time and 3 months to go.
    And most important, generating money.

    I suspect there will be another big uptick in donations after the addition of Walz to the ticket. perhaps even from some big corporate names. Wisconsin under Governor Walz has been very good at attracting inward investment. Corporate USA doesn't seem too worried by the "left wing" tag. Because it is nonsense.
    In that respect, Shapiro and Walz are pretty similar.
    And both have a pretty good record on cutting red tape - "permitting reform" in US parlance" - to enable development.

    If by 'left wing' they mean pro right to choose; public education; public healthcare, then sure. But those are all popular positions.

    As Waltz puts it: "I'm the monster who introduce free school meals".
    He’s also the monster who introduced 40-week abortions and porn in primary schools, in his own state.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,588

    Tim Walz is apparently really into maps.

    Maps are one of my fetishes.

    Can he move over here so I can vote for him?

    https://minnesotareformer.com/2024/08/06/former-geography-teacher-tim-walz-is-really-into-maps/

    "In 1993, he asked his sophomores where they thought the next genocide might happen, based on the geographic data. They pinpointed Rwanda. The following year, the Rwandan Genocide occurred. The New York Times interviewed some of the students involved in the project in 2008, when Walz was a U.S. congressman."

    Where does he stand on the Peters Projection vs Mercator debate?

    All right thinking people are on Team Peters.
    The Mercator projection is at least useful for navigation. The Peters projection is one of the worst. There are far better equal-area projections that don't distort shape so much.
    We have satellites and GPS to handle the navigation, we don't need sextants now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,086
    FF43 said:

    Dopermean said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    'Two Tier Keir' is a devastating nickname. It's catchy, quite clever, and like all damaging nicknames, contains an element of truth. It is going to dog SKS in every hypocritical decision that he makes and special interest group that he favours for the remainder of his (hopefully brief) spell in Government.

    "Two Tier Keir" seems clever and to have an element of truth to those that support the riots to some extent and also think Keir Starmer responsible for them, which is about 30% of the population, including most Reform supporters and half of Tories.

    This is way too many people but even so the bulk of the population who want nothing to with any of it aren't going to go "what about?" They just want the perpetrators punished.

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50257-the-public-reaction-to-the-2024-riots
    It has nothing to do with 'supporting the riots' - most people (quite rightly) want to see disorder and crime punished harshly whichever community it emanates from. Hence why the two tier nickname is damaging.
    Given the far right inspired the riots, if you are hard right yourself you will think the riots have some basis and that the participants need some kind of understanding. That these people have this belief is in the survey I linked.

    Those are the people who think "Two tier Keir" is clever and has an element of truth. They are the ones going "what about?" No-one else does.
    If you get five years for planning a peaceful protest, what's the second tier for planning violent disorder including burning people out of their homes and businesses because of their religious beliefs or skin colour?
    It's a legitimate question and one that raised its head with judges and magistrates a year after the 2011 riots and they were still banging up participants on exemplary sentences.

    Not an issue bothering most people right now. They want the disorder stopped and the participants locked up.
    If you look up the sentencing guidelines for plain arson - https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/offences/magistrates-court/item/arson-criminal-damage-by-fire/ - it is clear that the building attacks in the riots are the most serious category. Multiple reasons to put them in 1A.

    So that’s 2-8 years.

    Plus - “In exceptional cases within category 1A, sentences of above 8 years may be appropriate”

    And this, remember, is just for arson. There plenty of other things they can be charged with.

    Something that is misunderstood about the sentencing in 2011. Very little was overturned on appeal. The courts took the “aggravating circumstance and actions” of the riots into account.

    To compare with this - an idiot teenager who sets fire to some rubbish on a derelict site won’t get 8 years+ , he/she might get a community order.

    What surprised some, in 2011, was that the courts didn’t ignore the aggravating factors and give out the usual sentences. So a bunch of people found out about box 1A.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 726
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    The MAGA were always going to depict Harris as far left (by US standards), so not sure there are many votes there.

    Key for the Dems is to enthuse the base and GOTV especially women, the young and minorities. We saw in our election how critical that is. The Ed Davey style is the way to go, positive and fun.
    I agree with the first point but that is why there were advantages in having someone more moderate (like Biden was) on the ticket for balance. She has left herself open and it remains to be seen whether this finds any traction or not.


    I am concerned that there is an assumption that this is over because we would want it to be so. Trump is still ahead and this election is still to be won or lost. Harris has had 3 very good weeks but that has got her back to near parity, it has not given her a decisive lead.
    I don’t know enough about Walz or Dem politics to comment on his merits, but I agree on your essential point: all I can see is GOP people expressing relief she didn’t pick Shapiro

    I’d still have Harris as fave, but maybe a bit less fave, now
    I think that's probably taking GOP spin too much at face value. The GOP were literally handing out leaflets with their attack lines on Shapiro before hastily recalling them. They would still have attacked the Harris ticket for being left wing whilst pumping out all of the stuff in Shapiro's background which would have alienated progressive voters. The only reason that the GOP would be relieved that Shapiro wasn't picked is if you truly believe in the home state advantage he would have. Personally I don't think there is any evidence at all that having a VP from a particular state makes much of a difference to the result there .
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    Shapiro not being picked revealed that the number of Jew haters among the Dems is at a level capable of affecting elections.
    Does it ?
    The vast majority of Jewish representation in Congress is Democratic, of course. And Shapiro himself is a very popular Democratic governor.
    The Dems have the support of both Jews and Jew haters.

    Its an interesting source of friction.

    What we have seen in the western world during recent generations has been Jews trending politically to the right and Jew hatred moving politically to the left.

    The USA has seen the second element but, not yet, much of the first.
    Because Jews in Golders Green never voted for Mrs Thatcher to be their MP? This is nuts.

    As for the Dems, Josh Shapiro was in the running until the day before the announcement. They probably already knew he is Jewish by that point. It's not as if he was hiding it. To conclude antisemitism cost Shapiro the VP nominee slot is bizarre.
    His whole post is pretty bizarre if you think about it! A lot of Dems support the plight of the Gazans and Shapiro is known to be more solidly behind Netanyahu than many others particularly the young.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    Shapiro not being picked revealed that the number of Jew haters among the Dems is at a level capable of affecting elections.
    Does it ?
    The vast majority of Jewish representation in Congress is Democratic, of course. And Shapiro himself is a very popular Democratic governor.
    The Dems have the support of both Jews and Jew haters.

    Its an interesting source of friction.

    What we have seen in the western world during recent generations has been Jews trending politically to the right and Jew hatred moving politically to the left.

    The USA has seen the second element but, not yet, much of the first.
    Because Jews in Golders Green never voted for Mrs Thatcher to be their MP? This is nuts.

    As for the Dems, Josh Shapiro was in the running until the day before the announcement. They probably already knew he is Jewish by that point. It's not as if he was hiding it. To conclude antisemitism cost Shapiro the VP nominee slot is bizarre.
    It was a factor - 'progressives' didn't like Shapiro:

    The strongest argument against picking Shapiro is rooted in his hardline stance against both the Gaza protests on Pennsylvania university campuses—some of which he compared to white supremacist encampments—and the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement seeking to reverse Israel’s brutal human-rights record in the Occupied Territories. In The New Republic, writer David Klion made the case that Shapiro’s elevation to the ticket would kill off much of the movement energy now marshaled behind Harris’s run.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/josh-shapiro-vp-kamala-harris-wrong/

    Harris is no political fool and capable of seeing the advantages and disadvantages each potential VP candidate brought.
    Sure, there's a debate over attitudes towards Israel.
    But you called it "Jew haters".
  • Leon said:

    eek said:

    So yesterday I posted how Elon Musk is fine with virulent antisemitism on his platform but today he restricts criticism of the GOP.

    #TwoTierElon


    I think that makes X / Twitter a publisher which opens up a whole extra set of responsibilities.

    Elon really isn't very bright..
    Indeed, he’s fine with tweets telling a Jew that Dirty Jews are the next ones that should be targeted by the rioters but criticism of the GOP is a no no.
    He’s basically come out as a Trump supporter. And he’s slanting the site that way. Previously, it was slanted very much the other way

    As far as I know, in American law, he has no duty to offer balance or neutrality, so he can do what he likes. But maybe we have some American legal experts who can finesse this?

    The answer, surely, is for all the people that dislike this to head off to Threads or Bluesky or that Mastothingy
    People who dislike it can also take their advertising spend elsewhere too, which as the Supreme Court has ruled is constitutionally protected under the First Amendment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn47798gxx4o
  • Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not that great a pick, since I lost money on it.

    Won't Kamala please think of my book?

    I did warn you the VP market was unpredictable. Although I missed the chance to short Shapiro, I was green on both of them.
    I missed too.

    I really do think that the Americans need to revise their over protracted Primary system, which seems to consume vast amounts of time and money, and create division within parties. Our parties might want to ponder this too.

    The last fortnight has come up with a better pairing through a much shorter process and unified the party.

    One of the Harris/Walz advantages is to be new and fresh, generating interest and attention at exactly the right time and 3 months to go.
    And most important, generating money.

    I suspect there will be another big uptick in donations after the addition of Walz to the ticket. perhaps even from some big corporate names. Wisconsin under Governor Walz has been very good at attracting inward investment. Corporate USA doesn't seem too worried by the "left wing" tag. Because it is nonsense.
    In that respect, Shapiro and Walz are pretty similar.
    And both have a pretty good record on cutting red tape - "permitting reform" in US parlance" - to enable development.

    If by 'left wing' they mean pro right to choose; public education; public healthcare, then sure. But those are all popular positions.

    As Waltz puts it: "I'm the monster who introduce free school meals".
    He’s also the monster who introduced 40-week abortions and porn in primary schools, in his own state.
    "porn in primary schools" - I doubt it. Some interesting spin no doubt.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,334

    I do wonder if Harris is more politically talented and ruthless than people have previously expected.

    Biden's removal happened in a timescale which has worked perfectly for her.

    SKS style?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,990

    FF43 said:

    .

    tlg86 said:

    Starmer needs to nip this in the bud:

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1820881508413899082

    Two-tier policing clear as day.

    At the risk of whataboutery of my own, less widely reported is that most of the group went into the pub to apologise for the damage by what they called a small group of trouble makers. They helped clear up and agreed to compensate the damage. The pub has now banned the man who was beaten up for provoking the attack and issued a statement praising community leaders.
    Your interpretation of this is incredibly naive.
    Erm exactly how does a man sitting in a pub having a drink provoke a mob to go down and attack him?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,944

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    So yesterday I posted how Elon Musk is fine with virulent antisemitism on his platform but today he restricts criticism of the GOP.

    #TwoTierElon


    I think that makes X / Twitter a publisher which opens up a whole extra set of responsibilities.

    Elon really isn't very bright..
    Indeed, he’s fine with tweets telling a Jew that Dirty Jews are the next ones that should be targeted by the rioters but criticism of the GOP is a no no.
    He’s basically come out as a Trump supporter. And he’s slanting the site that way. Previously, it was slanted very much the other way

    As far as I know, in American law, he has no duty to offer balance or neutrality, so he can do what he likes. But maybe we have some American legal experts who can finesse this?

    The answer, surely, is for all the people that dislike this to head off to Threads or Bluesky or that Mastothingy
    People who dislike it can also take their advertising spend elsewhere too, which as the Supreme Court has ruled is constitutionally protected under the First Amendment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn47798gxx4o
    How about pulling down X in the UK for a day.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,334

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    So yesterday I posted how Elon Musk is fine with virulent antisemitism on his platform but today he restricts criticism of the GOP.

    #TwoTierElon


    I think that makes X / Twitter a publisher which opens up a whole extra set of responsibilities.

    Elon really isn't very bright..
    Indeed, he’s fine with tweets telling a Jew that Dirty Jews are the next ones that should be targeted by the rioters but criticism of the GOP is a no no.
    He’s basically come out as a Trump supporter. And he’s slanting the site that way. Previously, it was slanted very much the other way

    As far as I know, in American law, he has no duty to offer balance or neutrality, so he can do what he likes. But maybe we have some American legal experts who can finesse this?

    The answer, surely, is for all the people that dislike this to head off to Threads or Bluesky or that Mastothingy
    People who dislike it can also take their advertising spend elsewhere too, which as the Supreme Court has ruled is constitutionally protected under the First Amendment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn47798gxx4o
    Not complaining about your sentiment, but the case has only just begun - no mention of the SC in the report?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,359
    edited August 7
    Pagan2 said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    tlg86 said:

    Starmer needs to nip this in the bud:

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1820881508413899082

    Two-tier policing clear as day.

    At the risk of whataboutery of my own, less widely reported is that most of the group went into the pub to apologise for the damage by what they called a small group of trouble makers. They helped clear up and agreed to compensate the damage. The pub has now banned the man who was beaten up for provoking the attack and issued a statement praising community leaders.
    Your interpretation of this is incredibly naive.
    Erm exactly how does a man sitting in a pub having a drink provoke a mob to go down and attack him?
    Shouting racist abuse at people who are walking past the pub.

    Far from the first time something like that has happened in a pub and the manager of the pub is well within their ights to bar someone engaging in such unpleasant behaviour from their premises.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,220
    Interesting:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/elizabeth-line-government-plan-renationalise-uk-railway-tfl-b1174924.html

    The money-spinning Elizabeth line will not be nationalised under Government’s plan to bring the UK’s railways back under public control, it has been confirmed.

    Both the “Lizzie line” and the London Overground will continue to operate as “concessions” run by private rail firms under contract to Transport for London, TfL and the Department for Transport told the Evening Standard.

    This means that TfL will press ahead with the re-tendering of a new £3bn seven-year contract to run the Elizabeth line. Four bidders have been shortlisted and the winner is due to be announced early next year.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,086
    edited August 7

    tlg86 said:

    Starmer needs to nip this in the bud:

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1820881508413899082

    Two-tier policing clear as day.

    No. The police officer is clear that, faced with a different context, they took a different approach. That’s what the police should do. The police are stretched by these protests. They can’t be everywhere at once.
    Partnering with armed self-policing communities?
    In every single riot I can remember, there have been complaints that the police didn’t arrest everyone, then and there.

    2011 in particular. But also some of the Snackbarist demos.

    If police start dragging people off in the middle of a riot, that reduces the number of police policing the riot. Also there is a risk of creating a fighting focal point.

    So they arrest the immediate most egregious examples to hand. The rest they identify through CCTV, the police photographers etc etc.

    They scoop the up scum when it’s all died down and the offenders are on their own and not surrounded by hyped up friends. This creates less further violence and massively reduces the risk of harm to people - police or otherwise.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 726
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    So yesterday I posted how Elon Musk is fine with virulent antisemitism on his platform but today he restricts criticism of the GOP.

    #TwoTierElon


    I think that makes X / Twitter a publisher which opens up a whole extra set of responsibilities.

    Elon really isn't very bright..
    Indeed, he’s fine with tweets telling a Jew that Dirty Jews are the next ones that should be targeted by the rioters but criticism of the GOP is a no no.
    He’s basically come out as a Trump supporter. And he’s slanting the site that way. Previously, it was slanted very much the other way

    As far as I know, in American law, he has no duty to offer balance or neutrality, so he can do what he likes. But maybe we have some American legal experts who can finesse this?

    The answer, surely, is for all the people that dislike this to head off to Threads or Bluesky or that Mastothingy
    I think that's fine but what I find objectionable is Musk's constant banging on about restoring free speech to X. If you want to run your site in a partisan way then go ahead but at least have the honesty to admit that's what your doing. No-one expects Truth Social to be even handed.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,785
    Carnyx said:

    I do wonder if Harris is more politically talented and ruthless than people have previously expected.

    Biden's removal happened in a timescale which has worked perfectly for her.

    SKS style?
    Maybe.

    Or perhaps more like Thatcher - her replacement of Heath was a masterclass of making use of opportunities.
  • Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    So yesterday I posted how Elon Musk is fine with virulent antisemitism on his platform but today he restricts criticism of the GOP.

    #TwoTierElon


    I think that makes X / Twitter a publisher which opens up a whole extra set of responsibilities.

    Elon really isn't very bright..
    Indeed, he’s fine with tweets telling a Jew that Dirty Jews are the next ones that should be targeted by the rioters but criticism of the GOP is a no no.
    He’s basically come out as a Trump supporter. And he’s slanting the site that way. Previously, it was slanted very much the other way

    As far as I know, in American law, he has no duty to offer balance or neutrality, so he can do what he likes. But maybe we have some American legal experts who can finesse this?

    The answer, surely, is for all the people that dislike this to head off to Threads or Bluesky or that Mastothingy
    People who dislike it can also take their advertising spend elsewhere too, which as the Supreme Court has ruled is constitutionally protected under the First Amendment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn47798gxx4o
    Not complaining about your sentiment, but the case has only just begun - no mention of the SC in the report?
    "As a general rule, a politically motivated boycott is not an antitrust violation. It is protected speech under our First Amendment," he said.

    Professor Rebecca Haw Allensworth, of Vanderbilt University, said the boycott "was really trying to make a statement about X's policies and about their brands".

    "That's protected by the First Amendment," she said.


    The Supreme Court has made multiple rulings about the First Amendment and political speech when it comes to money.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    So yesterday I posted how Elon Musk is fine with virulent antisemitism on his platform but today he restricts criticism of the GOP.

    #TwoTierElon


    I think that makes X / Twitter a publisher which opens up a whole extra set of responsibilities.

    Elon really isn't very bright..
    Indeed, he’s fine with tweets telling a Jew that Dirty Jews are the next ones that should be targeted by the rioters but criticism of the GOP is a no no.
    He’s basically come out as a Trump supporter. And he’s slanting the site that way. Previously, it was slanted very much the other way

    As far as I know, in American law, he has no duty to offer balance or neutrality, so he can do what he likes. But maybe we have some American legal experts who can finesse this?

    The answer, surely, is for all the people that dislike this to head off to Threads or Bluesky or that Mastothingy
    Perhaps not.
    But if he's controlling the political speech on his platform, it raises the question of whether he's a publisher under UK law. At which point he and/or the platform potentially becomes legally liable for hate speech published there - particularly if he uses his own account to amplify it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Malmesbury, 2011 was notable for the police standing off and doing sod all for days, then finally going in hard.

    It was entertaining observing the Lib Dems suddenly discovering an enthusiasm for rubber bullets.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,086
    Roger said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    Shapiro not being picked revealed that the number of Jew haters among the Dems is at a level capable of affecting elections.
    Does it ?
    The vast majority of Jewish representation in Congress is Democratic, of course. And Shapiro himself is a very popular Democratic governor.
    The Dems have the support of both Jews and Jew haters.

    Its an interesting source of friction.

    What we have seen in the western world during recent generations has been Jews trending politically to the right and Jew hatred moving politically to the left.

    The USA has seen the second element but, not yet, much of the first.
    Because Jews in Golders Green never voted for Mrs Thatcher to be their MP? This is nuts.

    As for the Dems, Josh Shapiro was in the running until the day before the announcement. They probably already knew he is Jewish by that point. It's not as if he was hiding it. To conclude antisemitism cost Shapiro the VP nominee slot is bizarre.
    His whole post is pretty bizarre if you think about it! A lot of Dems support the plight of the Gazans and Shapiro is known to be more solidly behind Netanyahu than many others particularly the young.
    Whereas Waltz had an even handed approach.

    It was noticeable that both pro-Palestinian and pro-Israel groups praised the pick.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,718

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    So yesterday I posted how Elon Musk is fine with virulent antisemitism on his platform but today he restricts criticism of the GOP.

    #TwoTierElon


    I think that makes X / Twitter a publisher which opens up a whole extra set of responsibilities.

    Elon really isn't very bright..
    Indeed, he’s fine with tweets telling a Jew that Dirty Jews are the next ones that should be targeted by the rioters but criticism of the GOP is a no no.
    He’s basically come out as a Trump supporter. And he’s slanting the site that way. Previously, it was slanted very much the other way

    As far as I know, in American law, he has no duty to offer balance or neutrality, so he can do what he likes. But maybe we have some American legal experts who can finesse this?

    The answer, surely, is for all the people that dislike this to head off to Threads or Bluesky or that Mastothingy
    People who dislike it can also take their advertising spend elsewhere too, which as the Supreme Court has ruled is constitutionally protected under the First Amendment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn47798gxx4o
    Not complaining about your sentiment, but the case has only just begun - no mention of the SC in the report?
    "As a general rule, a politically motivated boycott is not an antitrust violation. It is protected speech under our First Amendment," he said.

    Professor Rebecca Haw Allensworth, of Vanderbilt University, said the boycott "was really trying to make a statement about X's policies and about their brands".

    "That's protected by the First Amendment," she said.


    The Supreme Court has made multiple rulings about the First Amendment and political speech when it comes to money.
    So Musk's lawyers need to persuade them this is some kind of attack on Trump for it to succeed?
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 726
    edited August 7

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    So yesterday I posted how Elon Musk is fine with virulent antisemitism on his platform but today he restricts criticism of the GOP.

    #TwoTierElon


    I think that makes X / Twitter a publisher which opens up a whole extra set of responsibilities.

    Elon really isn't very bright..
    Indeed, he’s fine with tweets telling a Jew that Dirty Jews are the next ones that should be targeted by the rioters but criticism of the GOP is a no no.
    He’s basically come out as a Trump supporter. And he’s slanting the site that way. Previously, it was slanted very much the other way

    As far as I know, in American law, he has no duty to offer balance or neutrality, so he can do what he likes. But maybe we have some American legal experts who can finesse this?

    The answer, surely, is for all the people that dislike this to head off to Threads or Bluesky or that Mastothingy
    People who dislike it can also take their advertising spend elsewhere too, which as the Supreme Court has ruled is constitutionally protected under the First Amendment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn47798gxx4o
    Elon Musk doesn't seem to agree with that though.

  • eekeek Posts: 28,585

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    So yesterday I posted how Elon Musk is fine with virulent antisemitism on his platform but today he restricts criticism of the GOP.

    #TwoTierElon


    I think that makes X / Twitter a publisher which opens up a whole extra set of responsibilities.

    Elon really isn't very bright..
    Indeed, he’s fine with tweets telling a Jew that Dirty Jews are the next ones that should be targeted by the rioters but criticism of the GOP is a no no.
    He’s basically come out as a Trump supporter. And he’s slanting the site that way. Previously, it was slanted very much the other way

    As far as I know, in American law, he has no duty to offer balance or neutrality, so he can do what he likes. But maybe we have some American legal experts who can finesse this?

    The answer, surely, is for all the people that dislike this to head off to Threads or Bluesky or that Mastothingy
    People who dislike it can also take their advertising spend elsewhere too, which as the Supreme Court has ruled is constitutionally protected under the First Amendment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn47798gxx4o
    You know that yesterday X announced they were suing advertising companies who refused to advertise on it's platform...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    The MAGA were always going to depict Harris as far left (by US standards), so not sure there are many votes there.

    Key for the Dems is to enthuse the base and GOTV especially women, the young and minorities. We saw in our election how critical that is. The Ed Davey style is the way to go, positive and fun.
    I agree with the first point but that is why there were advantages in having someone more moderate (like Biden was) on the ticket for balance. She has left herself open and it remains to be seen whether this finds any traction or not.


    I am concerned that there is an assumption that this is over because we would want it to be so. Trump is still ahead and this election is still to be won or lost. Harris has had 3 very good weeks but that has got her back to near parity, it has not given her a decisive lead.
    Quite: Harris's accession, the Vance VP pick, and the general organization of the Democrats have turned this into a genuinely competitive Presidential election.

    But let us not forget that in the US - as in pretty much the entire developed world - prices have risen faster than wages over the last four years. Voters don't like getting poorer, and generally punish the party in power.

    The only reason that this election is competitive is because Trump is such a divisive candidate, and because Republicans (other than Trump) have engaged in a politically unpopular campaign to criminalize abortion.

    I would make Trump still the narrow favorite, but it could easily go either way - and a landslide victory for either candidate is not impossible.
  • Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    So yesterday I posted how Elon Musk is fine with virulent antisemitism on his platform but today he restricts criticism of the GOP.

    #TwoTierElon


    I think that makes X / Twitter a publisher which opens up a whole extra set of responsibilities.

    Elon really isn't very bright..
    Indeed, he’s fine with tweets telling a Jew that Dirty Jews are the next ones that should be targeted by the rioters but criticism of the GOP is a no no.
    He’s basically come out as a Trump supporter. And he’s slanting the site that way. Previously, it was slanted very much the other way

    As far as I know, in American law, he has no duty to offer balance or neutrality, so he can do what he likes. But maybe we have some American legal experts who can finesse this?

    The answer, surely, is for all the people that dislike this to head off to Threads or Bluesky or that Mastothingy
    People who dislike it can also take their advertising spend elsewhere too, which as the Supreme Court has ruled is constitutionally protected under the First Amendment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn47798gxx4o
    Elon Musk doesn't seem to agree with that though.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn47798gxx4o.amp
    That was the point.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    So yesterday I posted how Elon Musk is fine with virulent antisemitism on his platform but today he restricts criticism of the GOP.

    #TwoTierElon


    I think that makes X / Twitter a publisher which opens up a whole extra set of responsibilities.

    Elon really isn't very bright..
    Indeed, he’s fine with tweets telling a Jew that Dirty Jews are the next ones that should be targeted by the rioters but criticism of the GOP is a no no.
    He’s basically come out as a Trump supporter. And he’s slanting the site that way. Previously, it was slanted very much the other way

    As far as I know, in American law, he has no duty to offer balance or neutrality, so he can do what he likes. But maybe we have some American legal experts who can finesse this?

    The answer, surely, is for all the people that dislike this to head off to Threads or Bluesky or that Mastothingy
    The post in question would have been auto reviewed. It was manually reinstated by X yesterday.
  • eek said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    So yesterday I posted how Elon Musk is fine with virulent antisemitism on his platform but today he restricts criticism of the GOP.

    #TwoTierElon


    I think that makes X / Twitter a publisher which opens up a whole extra set of responsibilities.

    Elon really isn't very bright..
    Indeed, he’s fine with tweets telling a Jew that Dirty Jews are the next ones that should be targeted by the rioters but criticism of the GOP is a no no.
    He’s basically come out as a Trump supporter. And he’s slanting the site that way. Previously, it was slanted very much the other way

    As far as I know, in American law, he has no duty to offer balance or neutrality, so he can do what he likes. But maybe we have some American legal experts who can finesse this?

    The answer, surely, is for all the people that dislike this to head off to Threads or Bluesky or that Mastothingy
    People who dislike it can also take their advertising spend elsewhere too, which as the Supreme Court has ruled is constitutionally protected under the First Amendment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn47798gxx4o
    You know that yesterday X announced they were suing advertising companies who refused to advertise on it's platform...
    Did they really?

    When I just linked to that and that is precisely the point I was making?

    No, I wasn't aware, that was completely new information to me.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    The MAGA were always going to depict Harris as far left (by US standards), so not sure there are many votes there.

    Key for the Dems is to enthuse the base and GOTV especially women, the young and minorities. We saw in our election how critical that is. The Ed Davey style is the way to go, positive and fun.
    I agree with the first point but that is why there were advantages in having someone more moderate (like Biden was) on the ticket for balance. She has left herself open and it remains to be seen whether this finds any traction or not.


    I am concerned that there is an assumption that this is over because we would want it to be so. Trump is still ahead and this election is still to be won or lost. Harris has had 3 very good weeks but that has got her back to near parity, it has not given her a decisive lead.
    Quite: Harris's accession, the Vance VP pick, and the general organization of the Democrats have turned this into a genuinely competitive Presidential election.

    But let us not forget that in the US - as in pretty much the entire developed world - prices have risen faster than wages over the last four years. Voters don't like getting poorer, and generally punish the party in power.

    The only reason that this election is competitive is because Trump is such a divisive candidate, and because Republicans (other than Trump) have engaged in a politically unpopular campaign to criminalize abortion.

    I would make Trump still the narrow favorite, but it could easily go either way - and a landslide victory for either candidate is not impossible.
    Some Leon level forecasting there.
    Literally anything can happen, and that prediction will be correct.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 726

    Stereodog said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    So yesterday I posted how Elon Musk is fine with virulent antisemitism on his platform but today he restricts criticism of the GOP.

    #TwoTierElon


    I think that makes X / Twitter a publisher which opens up a whole extra set of responsibilities.

    Elon really isn't very bright..
    Indeed, he’s fine with tweets telling a Jew that Dirty Jews are the next ones that should be targeted by the rioters but criticism of the GOP is a no no.
    He’s basically come out as a Trump supporter. And he’s slanting the site that way. Previously, it was slanted very much the other way

    As far as I know, in American law, he has no duty to offer balance or neutrality, so he can do what he likes. But maybe we have some American legal experts who can finesse this?

    The answer, surely, is for all the people that dislike this to head off to Threads or Bluesky or that Mastothingy
    People who dislike it can also take their advertising spend elsewhere too, which as the Supreme Court has ruled is constitutionally protected under the First Amendment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn47798gxx4o
    Elon Musk doesn't seem to agree with that though.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn47798gxx4o.amp
    That was the point.
    Sorry missed the sarcasm 🤦
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,990

    Pagan2 said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    tlg86 said:

    Starmer needs to nip this in the bud:

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1820881508413899082

    Two-tier policing clear as day.

    At the risk of whataboutery of my own, less widely reported is that most of the group went into the pub to apologise for the damage by what they called a small group of trouble makers. They helped clear up and agreed to compensate the damage. The pub has now banned the man who was beaten up for provoking the attack and issued a statement praising community leaders.
    Your interpretation of this is incredibly naive.
    Erm exactly how does a man sitting in a pub having a drink provoke a mob to go down and attack him?
    Shouting racist abuse at people who are walking past the pub.

    Far from the first time something like that has happened in a pub and the manager of the pub is well within their ights to bar someone engaging in such unpleasant behaviour from their premises.
    Do you have a link for that or is that just your assumption? The story yesterday was someone tweeted there were edl supporters drinking there and a mob formed to go attack them. I have not seen any story contradicting that as yet though not saying there isn't one
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    Punching up is good, punching down isn't.

    Vance is someone who came from socioeconomic deprivation and made a success of his life.

    Perhaps that's why he's resented by so many from more affluent backgrounds.

    Most people - whether on the Left or the Right - liked the Hillbilly Elegy Vance. Many liked Vance when he was a never Trumper Republican.

    It was, in fact, only when Vance decided to stick his toungue up Trump's rectum, particularly as regards not certifying the 2020 election, that people decided that Vance might actually be an amoral chancer.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,471
    On domestic matters, I fear we have a very tense and potentially unpleasant night ahead. For the first time, it's likely that the far-right 'protests' planned will be met with opposition from anti-fascist groups who have got wind of potential locations and are organising counter-protests, rather than the ad hoc opposition we've seen so far. The police may struggle to keep the two sides apart. Where I live, totally unaffected so far, quite a lot of shops have chosen to close early.
    Let's all hope it comes to nothing and fizzles out as people choose to stay at home.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,144

    IanB2 said:

    Tim Walz is apparently really into maps.

    Maps are one of my fetishes.

    Can he move over here so I can vote for him?

    https://minnesotareformer.com/2024/08/06/former-geography-teacher-tim-walz-is-really-into-maps/

    "In 1993, he asked his sophomores where they thought the next genocide might happen, based on the geographic data. They pinpointed Rwanda. The following year, the Rwandan Genocide occurred. The New York Times interviewed some of the students involved in the project in 2008, when Walz was a U.S. congressman."

    Where does he stand on the Peters Projection vs Mercator debate?

    All right thinking people are on Team Peters.
    HERESY!!!!

    (IMO there is no one *good* map projection; they all have advantages and disadvantages.
    The globe one works quite well?
    Google Earth makes it sort of portable.
    Although looking at Google Earth depicting a globe on a flat screen is effectively a projection, of course!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,785
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    Shapiro not being picked revealed that the number of Jew haters among the Dems is at a level capable of affecting elections.
    Does it ?
    The vast majority of Jewish representation in Congress is Democratic, of course. And Shapiro himself is a very popular Democratic governor.
    The Dems have the support of both Jews and Jew haters.

    Its an interesting source of friction.

    What we have seen in the western world during recent generations has been Jews trending politically to the right and Jew hatred moving politically to the left.

    The USA has seen the second element but, not yet, much of the first.
    Because Jews in Golders Green never voted for Mrs Thatcher to be their MP? This is nuts.

    As for the Dems, Josh Shapiro was in the running until the day before the announcement. They probably already knew he is Jewish by that point. It's not as if he was hiding it. To conclude antisemitism cost Shapiro the VP nominee slot is bizarre.
    It was a factor - 'progressives' didn't like Shapiro:

    The strongest argument against picking Shapiro is rooted in his hardline stance against both the Gaza protests on Pennsylvania university campuses—some of which he compared to white supremacist encampments—and the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement seeking to reverse Israel’s brutal human-rights record in the Occupied Territories. In The New Republic, writer David Klion made the case that Shapiro’s elevation to the ticket would kill off much of the movement energy now marshaled behind Harris’s run.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/josh-shapiro-vp-kamala-harris-wrong/

    Harris is no political fool and capable of seeing the advantages and disadvantages each potential VP candidate brought.
    Sure, there's a debate over attitudes towards Israel.
    But you called it "Jew haters".
    Are you suggesting there aren't some people who hate Jews ?

    Or some people that don't like Jews enough that they wouldn't vote for a Jew ?

    Or that there aren't some people who believe in 'Jewish conspiracies' ?

    On the last see Boy Kennedy's comments about covid being 'ethnically targeted'.
  • Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    tlg86 said:

    Starmer needs to nip this in the bud:

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1820881508413899082

    Two-tier policing clear as day.

    At the risk of whataboutery of my own, less widely reported is that most of the group went into the pub to apologise for the damage by what they called a small group of trouble makers. They helped clear up and agreed to compensate the damage. The pub has now banned the man who was beaten up for provoking the attack and issued a statement praising community leaders.
    Your interpretation of this is incredibly naive.
    Erm exactly how does a man sitting in a pub having a drink provoke a mob to go down and attack him?
    Shouting racist abuse at people who are walking past the pub.

    Far from the first time something like that has happened in a pub and the manager of the pub is well within their ights to bar someone engaging in such unpleasant behaviour from their premises.
    Do you have a link for that or is that just your assumption? The story yesterday was someone tweeted there were edl supporters drinking there and a mob formed to go attack them. I have not seen any story contradicting that as yet though not saying there isn't one
    Nunu5 said:

    https://x.com/RLCotterill/status/1820859049803468978

    White Man who was attacked in Birmingham is barred

    Rather weird phrasing by nunu, but from the link the confrontation was started with offensive language from the man to people who were walking past.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    tlg86 said:

    Starmer needs to nip this in the bud:

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1820881508413899082

    Two-tier policing clear as day.

    At the risk of whataboutery of my own, less widely reported is that most of the group went into the pub to apologise for the damage by what they called a small group of trouble makers. They helped clear up and agreed to compensate the damage. The pub has now banned the man who was beaten up for provoking the attack and issued a statement praising community leaders.
    Your interpretation of this is incredibly naive.
    Erm exactly how does a man sitting in a pub having a drink provoke a mob to go down and attack him?
    Shouting racist abuse at people who are walking past the pub.

    Far from the first time something like that has happened in a pub and the manager of the pub is well within their ights to bar someone engaging in such unpleasant behaviour from their premises.
    Do you have a link for that or is that just your assumption? The story yesterday was someone tweeted there were edl supporters drinking there and a mob formed to go attack them. I have not seen any story contradicting that as yet though not saying there isn't one
    Nunu5 said:

    https://x.com/RLCotterill/status/1820859049803468978

    White Man who was attacked in Birmingham is barred

    Rather weird phrasing by nunu, but from the link the confrontation was started with offensive language from the man to people who were walking past.
    The local MP and police chief tell a different story to it being a spontaneous reaction by passers by.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,934
    edited August 7
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    So yesterday I posted how Elon Musk is fine with virulent antisemitism on his platform but today he restricts criticism of the GOP.

    #TwoTierElon


    I think that makes X / Twitter a publisher which opens up a whole extra set of responsibilities.

    Elon really isn't very bright..
    Indeed, he’s fine with tweets telling a Jew that Dirty Jews are the next ones that should be targeted by the rioters but criticism of the GOP is a no no.
    He’s basically come out as a Trump supporter. And he’s slanting the site that way. Previously, it was slanted very much the other way

    As far as I know, in American law, he has no duty to offer balance or neutrality, so he can do what he likes. But maybe we have some American legal experts who can finesse this?

    The answer, surely, is for all the people that dislike this to head off to Threads or Bluesky or that Mastothingy
    Perhaps not.
    But if he's controlling the political speech on his platform, it raises the question of whether he's a publisher under UK law. At which point he and/or the platform potentially becomes legally liable for hate speech published there - particularly if he uses his own account to amplify it.
    Which he did yesterday. The poster he linked to, if in the UK, would be banged up for the stuff he/she was posting (and @moonshine thinks is ok for him to link to such accounts).
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,120

    On domestic matters, I fear we have a very tense and potentially unpleasant night ahead. For the first time, it's likely that the far-right 'protests' planned will be met with opposition from anti-fascist groups who have got wind of potential locations and are organising counter-protests, rather than the ad hoc opposition we've seen so far. The police may struggle to keep the two sides apart. Where I live, totally unaffected so far, quite a lot of shops have chosen to close early.
    Let's all hope it comes to nothing and fizzles out as people choose to stay at home.

    Though the police anticipated it well in Leicester last Saturday, with the anti-EDL counter protesters occupying the meeting point before the EDL arrived. It was very well policed, and I felt perfectly safe wandering through. The Saturday afternoon shoppers looked more bemused than intimidated. It helped that the counter-protestors outnumbered the EDL by 10 to 1.



  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,785

    UK economy fared better in 2022 than previously thought, new figures show
    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/uk-economy-fared-better-in-2022-than-previously-thought-new-figures-show/ar-AA1on7D7

    Huzzah for PM Boris Liz Rishi.

    Details:

    The UK economy grew by more than expected during 2022, as revised official data showed the economy did better in the face of soaring inflation and post-pandemic recovery than previously thought.

    The estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) rose from 4.3% to 4.8% in 2022, a larger than usual upgrade, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

    This was primarily driven by stronger growth in the transport, professional and business support services industries during the year.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/business/uk-economy-fared-better-in-2022-than-previously-thought-new-figures-show-b2592433.html

    The irony is that the Truss project was never needed economically - things were going pretty well.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,120
    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    It is customary for peaceful protestors to have stewards at well organised protests, so good on you for volunteering to control your own side.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,269

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    FF43 said:

    .

    tlg86 said:

    Starmer needs to nip this in the bud:

    https://x.com/SkyNews/status/1820881508413899082

    Two-tier policing clear as day.

    At the risk of whataboutery of my own, less widely reported is that most of the group went into the pub to apologise for the damage by what they called a small group of trouble makers. They helped clear up and agreed to compensate the damage. The pub has now banned the man who was beaten up for provoking the attack and issued a statement praising community leaders.
    Your interpretation of this is incredibly naive.
    Erm exactly how does a man sitting in a pub having a drink provoke a mob to go down and attack him?
    Shouting racist abuse at people who are walking past the pub.

    Far from the first time something like that has happened in a pub and the manager of the pub is well within their ights to bar someone engaging in such unpleasant behaviour from their premises.
    Do you have a link for that or is that just your assumption? The story yesterday was someone tweeted there were edl supporters drinking there and a mob formed to go attack them. I have not seen any story contradicting that as yet though not saying there isn't one
    Nunu5 said:

    https://x.com/RLCotterill/status/1820859049803468978

    White Man who was attacked in Birmingham is barred

    Rather weird phrasing by nunu, but from the link the confrontation was started with offensive language from the man to people who were walking past.
    That’s like saying that the Russian invasion was started by Ukraine saying bad things about Putin’s army being positioned on the border.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,412

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    Shapiro not being picked revealed that the number of Jew haters among the Dems is at a level capable of affecting elections.
    Does it ?
    The vast majority of Jewish representation in Congress is Democratic, of course. And Shapiro himself is a very popular Democratic governor.
    The Dems have the support of both Jews and Jew haters.

    Its an interesting source of friction.

    What we have seen in the western world during recent generations has been Jews trending politically to the right and Jew hatred moving politically to the left.

    The USA has seen the second element but, not yet, much of the first.
    Because Jews in Golders Green never voted for Mrs Thatcher to be their MP? This is nuts.

    As for the Dems, Josh Shapiro was in the running until the day before the announcement. They probably already knew he is Jewish by that point. It's not as if he was hiding it. To conclude antisemitism cost Shapiro the VP nominee slot is bizarre.
    It was a factor - 'progressives' didn't like Shapiro:

    The strongest argument against picking Shapiro is rooted in his hardline stance against both the Gaza protests on Pennsylvania university campuses—some of which he compared to white supremacist encampments—and the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement seeking to reverse Israel’s brutal human-rights record in the Occupied Territories. In The New Republic, writer David Klion made the case that Shapiro’s elevation to the ticket would kill off much of the movement energy now marshaled behind Harris’s run.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/josh-shapiro-vp-kamala-harris-wrong/

    Harris is no political fool and capable of seeing the advantages and disadvantages each potential VP candidate brought.
    To accept this thesis demands Kamala and her team not notice Shapiro is Jewish until the last moment, literally the day before the announcement, else he'd have been ruled out weeks ago, or never ruled in.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    .
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    It is customary for peaceful protestors to have stewards at well organised protests, so good on you for volunteering to control your own side.
    Just for the record, I am not Alex Armstrong.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    Looking at that clip and his easy folksy manner with the crowd: perhaps it should be Walz/Harris?

    He has a touch of Ronnie Reagan.


  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,944
    edited August 7
    Foxy said:

    On domestic matters, I fear we have a very tense and potentially unpleasant night ahead. For the first time, it's likely that the far-right 'protests' planned will be met with opposition from anti-fascist groups who have got wind of potential locations and are organising counter-protests, rather than the ad hoc opposition we've seen so far. The police may struggle to keep the two sides apart. Where I live, totally unaffected so far, quite a lot of shops have chosen to close early.
    Let's all hope it comes to nothing and fizzles out as people choose to stay at home.

    Though the police anticipated it well in Leicester last Saturday, with the anti-EDL counter protesters occupying the meeting point before the EDL arrived. It was very well policed, and I felt perfectly safe wandering through. The Saturday afternoon shoppers looked more bemused than intimidated. It helped that the counter-protestors outnumbered the EDL by 10 to 1.



    Yeah - I was bit worried about the counter protests but the sheer scale of them has acted as an effective deterrent in some places.

    It's important that there are white people joining in so it isolates the far-right as the racist arseholes rather than the Musk perception of Muslims v England.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755

    UK economy fared better in 2022 than previously thought, new figures show
    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/uk-economy-fared-better-in-2022-than-previously-thought-new-figures-show/ar-AA1on7D7

    Huzzah for PM Boris Liz Rishi.

    Details:

    The UK economy grew by more than expected during 2022, as revised official data showed the economy did better in the face of soaring inflation and post-pandemic recovery than previously thought.

    The estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) rose from 4.3% to 4.8% in 2022, a larger than usual upgrade, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

    This was primarily driven by stronger growth in the transport, professional and business support services industries during the year.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/business/uk-economy-fared-better-in-2022-than-previously-thought-new-figures-show-b2592433.html

    The irony is that the Truss project was never needed economically - things were going pretty well.
    No idea what planet you are on if you think post lockdown catch-up growth means this country does not have a profound productivity problem
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,500
    I’ve got a suspicion these planned “30 attacks” on lawyers etc won’t actually materialise and we will see basically nothing. Maybe a few kids. Its probably the coppers (understandably) jumping at ghosts and bots on Telegram, who are deliberately trying to spook them

    Indeed I think the riots, for now, are largely done

    Pray that I’m right!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,412

    Looking at that clip and his easy folksy manner with the crowd: perhaps it should be Walz/Harris?

    He has a touch of Ronnie Reagan.


    Doddering old fool giving political cover to the hard men in his party taking all the decisions (cf GWB & DJT)?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    The MAGA were always going to depict Harris as far left (by US standards), so not sure there are many votes there.

    Key for the Dems is to enthuse the base and GOTV especially women, the young and minorities. We saw in our election how critical that is. The Ed Davey style is the way to go, positive and fun.
    I agree with the first point but that is why there were advantages in having someone more moderate (like Biden was) on the ticket for balance. She has left herself open and it remains to be seen whether this finds any traction or not.


    I am concerned that there is an assumption that this is over because we would want it to be so. Trump is still ahead and this election is still to be won or lost. Harris has had 3 very good weeks but that has got her back to near parity, it has not given her a decisive lead.
    Quite: Harris's accession, the Vance VP pick, and the general organization of the Democrats have turned this into a genuinely competitive Presidential election.

    But let us not forget that in the US - as in pretty much the entire developed world - prices have risen faster than wages over the last four years. Voters don't like getting poorer, and generally punish the party in power.

    The only reason that this election is competitive is because Trump is such a divisive candidate, and because Republicans (other than Trump) have engaged in a politically unpopular campaign to criminalize abortion.

    I would make Trump still the narrow favorite, but it could easily go either way - and a landslide victory for either candidate is not impossible.
    Some Leon level forecasting there.
    Literally anything can happen, and that prediction will be correct.
    I will revise the forecast as we get nearer the election.

    But here's my order of likelihood outcomes:

    1. Very narrow Republican victory, with the Sunbelt coming through for Trump, but the rust belt remaining blue.

    2. Very narrow Democrat victory, with at least one of the Sunbelt states holding solid.

    3. Solid Democrat victory, with the Sunbelt staying blue, and a couple of competitive states -like Iowa or Florida - flipping blue.

    4. Solid Republican victory, with all of Trump's 2016 wins, plus Virginia and Nevada.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755

    Looking at that clip and his easy folksy manner with the crowd: perhaps it should be Walz/Harris?

    He has a touch of Ronnie Reagan.


    All of the proposed veep candidates seemed like a better bet for the actual job than Kamala. In all the noise of election fun, many seem to have lost sight that when it’s over, she actually has to
    govern, in what is arguably the least stable geopol climate in generations and with an economy that might easily resemble the smoking wreck of early 2009.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,500
    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    I can’t believe this cop hasn’t resigned already this morning
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,120
    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    On domestic matters, I fear we have a very tense and potentially unpleasant night ahead. For the first time, it's likely that the far-right 'protests' planned will be met with opposition from anti-fascist groups who have got wind of potential locations and are organising counter-protests, rather than the ad hoc opposition we've seen so far. The police may struggle to keep the two sides apart. Where I live, totally unaffected so far, quite a lot of shops have chosen to close early.
    Let's all hope it comes to nothing and fizzles out as people choose to stay at home.

    Though the police anticipated it well in Leicester last Saturday, with the anti-EDL counter protesters occupying the meeting point before the EDL arrived. It was very well policed, and I felt perfectly safe wandering through. The Saturday afternoon shoppers looked more bemused than intimidated. It helped that the counter-protestors outnumbered the EDL by 10 to 1.



    Yeah - I was bit worried about the counter protests but the sheer scale of them has acted as an effective deterrent in some places.
    It was a completely peaceful and multi racial counter protest too. It's important to show solidarity with threatened communities, and be clear that the EDL do not speak for us all.

    I have supported several of my migrant colleagues at work too who felt threatened by the atmosphere nationally.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,785

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    Shapiro not being picked revealed that the number of Jew haters among the Dems is at a level capable of affecting elections.
    Does it ?
    The vast majority of Jewish representation in Congress is Democratic, of course. And Shapiro himself is a very popular Democratic governor.
    The Dems have the support of both Jews and Jew haters.

    Its an interesting source of friction.

    What we have seen in the western world during recent generations has been Jews trending politically to the right and Jew hatred moving politically to the left.

    The USA has seen the second element but, not yet, much of the first.
    Because Jews in Golders Green never voted for Mrs Thatcher to be their MP? This is nuts.

    As for the Dems, Josh Shapiro was in the running until the day before the announcement. They probably already knew he is Jewish by that point. It's not as if he was hiding it. To conclude antisemitism cost Shapiro the VP nominee slot is bizarre.
    It was a factor - 'progressives' didn't like Shapiro:

    The strongest argument against picking Shapiro is rooted in his hardline stance against both the Gaza protests on Pennsylvania university campuses—some of which he compared to white supremacist encampments—and the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement seeking to reverse Israel’s brutal human-rights record in the Occupied Territories. In The New Republic, writer David Klion made the case that Shapiro’s elevation to the ticket would kill off much of the movement energy now marshaled behind Harris’s run.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/josh-shapiro-vp-kamala-harris-wrong/

    Harris is no political fool and capable of seeing the advantages and disadvantages each potential VP candidate brought.
    To accept this thesis demands Kamala and her team not notice Shapiro is Jewish until the last moment, literally the day before the announcement, else he'd have been ruled out weeks ago, or never ruled in.
    No, it merely requires Harris to have considered the relative advantages and disadvantages of each candidate.

    Even with the hostility towards him from 'progressives' Shapiro was a strong candidate.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,935
    edited August 7
    That Betfair graph shows that if a week is a long time in politics, the past month has been its own geological epoch.

    On 15th July, Trump was registering a 71% likelihood of being President again. Harris was on just 6%. Three weeks on, it's 50-47. Trump down 21%, Harris up 41%.

    In three weeks.

    And with the Democratic Convention wrapping up on the 22nd August, who can predict what those numbers be in another three weeks...?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    I can’t believe this cop hasn’t resigned already this morning
    Why should he do that, when you see the weight of pb thinks this perfectly normal and acceptable, no doubt entirely representative of the view of his westminster paymasters (of all political colours).
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,430

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    Shapiro not being picked revealed that the number of Jew haters among the Dems is at a level capable of affecting elections.
    Does it ?
    The vast majority of Jewish representation in Congress is Democratic, of course. And Shapiro himself is a very popular Democratic governor.
    The Dems have the support of both Jews and Jew haters.

    Its an interesting source of friction.

    What we have seen in the western world during recent generations has been Jews trending politically to the right and Jew hatred moving politically to the left.

    The USA has seen the second element but, not yet, much of the first.
    Plenty of the far right remain steadfast in their hatred of Jews: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/aug/06/far-right-forums-used-to-plan-riots-now-encouraging-antisemitic-attacks , https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67446800 , https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-anti-semitism-problem-hungary-jews/ etc.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,086
    And now Space Comedy intrudes into politics

    https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/nasa-confirms-slip-of-crew-9-launch-to-late-september-for-flexibility/

    For those who don’t know - NASA contracted with SpaceX and Boeing to provide human access to the International Space Station under the Commercial Crew program.

    SpaceX’s Dragon, launched on Falcon 9 has been up and running for years.

    Boeing is running so late that some thought they might miss the end of the Space Station - due to be decommissioned at the end of this decade.

    Faults, mistakes, failed test flights. It’s been a mess.

    The final checkout flight, with two astronauts, has turned into another mess. The thrusters for the space craft are acting up (among other things). Without thrusters, in space you are dead.

    So the return of the astronauts on the Boeing Starliner has been delayed and now delayed again.

    Further - the reason that the NASA administrator is saying that he will make the final decision is a sign. Within NASA, there is a process, by which an engineer who isn’t happy with a decision can formally kick it upstairs. So there is division in NASA about what to do.

    One option is to return the astronauts on the next SpaceX Dragon. But it turns out that that Boeing deleted the option from Starliner to do an automated, unmanned return. If Starliner can’t leave ISS that’s another disaster - it bock one of the docking ports

    Why politics?

    1) The astronauts abandoning Starliner and going home in Dragon will nearly certainly end the Starliner program. A public humiliation for Boeing.
    2) Boeing has a vast army of political supporters - the decision is political
    3) if the astronauts return in Starliner and there is an accident. It will be a massive thing - hearings in Congress for a start. There would be accusations of political interference.
    4) the NASA admin - Bill Nelson - is a political appointee and former Dem politician.

    This is touching the White House and, potentially, November.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,785

    That Betfair graph shows that if a week is a long time in politics, the past month has been its own geological epoch.

    On 15th July, Trump was registering a 71% likelihood of being President again. Harris was on just 6%. Three weeks on, it's 50-47. Trump down 21%, Harris up 41%.

    In three weeks.

    And with the Democratic Convention wrapping up on the 22nd August, who can predict what those numbers be in another three weeks...?

    Big events can have big effects.

    Biden's replacement by Harris was a big event with a big effect.

    If we get more big events then there might be more big effects.

    Otherwise not.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    Shapiro not being picked revealed that the number of Jew haters among the Dems is at a level capable of affecting elections.
    Does it ?
    The vast majority of Jewish representation in Congress is Democratic, of course. And Shapiro himself is a very popular Democratic governor.
    The Dems have the support of both Jews and Jew haters.

    Its an interesting source of friction.

    What we have seen in the western world during recent generations has been Jews trending politically to the right and Jew hatred moving politically to the left.

    The USA has seen the second element but, not yet, much of the first.
    Because Jews in Golders Green never voted for Mrs Thatcher to be their MP? This is nuts.

    As for the Dems, Josh Shapiro was in the running until the day before the announcement. They probably already knew he is Jewish by that point. It's not as if he was hiding it. To conclude antisemitism cost Shapiro the VP nominee slot is bizarre.
    It was a factor - 'progressives' didn't like Shapiro:

    The strongest argument against picking Shapiro is rooted in his hardline stance against both the Gaza protests on Pennsylvania university campuses—some of which he compared to white supremacist encampments—and the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement seeking to reverse Israel’s brutal human-rights record in the Occupied Territories. In The New Republic, writer David Klion made the case that Shapiro’s elevation to the ticket would kill off much of the movement energy now marshaled behind Harris’s run.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/josh-shapiro-vp-kamala-harris-wrong/

    Harris is no political fool and capable of seeing the advantages and disadvantages each potential VP candidate brought.
    To accept this thesis demands Kamala and her team not notice Shapiro is Jewish until the last moment, literally the day before the announcement, else he'd have been ruled out weeks ago, or never ruled in.
    No, it merely requires Harris to have considered the relative advantages and disadvantages of each candidate.

    Even with the hostility towards him from 'progressives' Shapiro was a strong candidate.
    Harris is married to a conservative Jewish lawyer. If he's willing to stump for her (which I presume he is), that neutralizes the benefits of Shapiro somewhat.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,471
    Leon said:

    I’ve got a suspicion these planned “30 attacks” on lawyers etc won’t actually materialise and we will see basically nothing. Maybe a few kids. Its probably the coppers (understandably) jumping at ghosts and bots on Telegram, who are deliberately trying to spook them

    Indeed I think the riots, for now, are largely done

    Pray that I’m right!

    Hope you're right.
    If you are, no doubt you'll be singing Starmer's praises for dealing with it all so well.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,500
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    I can’t believe this cop hasn’t resigned already this morning
    Why should he do that, when you see the weight of pb thinks this perfectly normal and acceptable, no doubt entirely representative of the view of his westminster paymasters (of all political colours).
    Just as Twitter is not the world, neither is PB. In some ways that’s sad, we’d probably do a better job of governing than the last 8 or so UK governments

    Anyone normal can see this is a frankly outrageous remark by a senior policeman
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755

    That Betfair graph shows that if a week is a long time in politics, the past month has been its own geological epoch.

    On 15th July, Trump was registering a 71% likelihood of being President again. Harris was on just 6%. Three weeks on, it's 50-47. Trump down 21%, Harris up 41%.

    In three weeks.

    And with the Democratic Convention wrapping up on the 22nd August, who can predict what those numbers be in another three weeks...?

    US elections are like a good test match aren't they. Favourite swinging back and forth. Trump is currently bowling on a flat pitch to a ton partnership. The Yorker isn’t working. He’s getting hot and bothered. Does he have a Simon Jones evening session slow bowl inswinger in him?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,430
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not that great a pick, since I lost money on it.

    Won't Kamala please think of my book?

    I did warn you the VP market was unpredictable. Although I missed the chance to short Shapiro, I was green on both of them.
    I missed too.

    I really do think that the Americans need to revise their over protracted Primary system, which seems to consume vast amounts of time and money, and create division within parties. Our parties might want to ponder this too.

    The last fortnight has come up with a better pairing through a much shorter process and unified the party.

    One of the Harris/Walz advantages is to be new and fresh, generating interest and attention at exactly the right time and 3 months to go.
    And most important, generating money.

    I suspect there will be another big uptick in donations after the addition of Walz to the ticket. perhaps even from some big corporate names. Wisconsin under Governor Walz has been very good at attracting inward investment. Corporate USA doesn't seem too worried by the "left wing" tag. Because it is nonsense.
    In that respect, Shapiro and Walz are pretty similar.
    And both have a pretty good record on cutting red tape - "permitting reform" in US parlance" - to enable development.

    If by 'left wing' they mean pro right to choose; public education; public healthcare, then sure. But those are all popular positions.

    As Waltz puts it: "I'm the monster who introduce free school meals".
    He’s also the monster who introduced 40-week abortions and porn in primary schools, in his own state.
    Sandpit, stop repeating MAGA propaganda.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,500

    Leon said:

    I’ve got a suspicion these planned “30 attacks” on lawyers etc won’t actually materialise and we will see basically nothing. Maybe a few kids. Its probably the coppers (understandably) jumping at ghosts and bots on Telegram, who are deliberately trying to spook them

    Indeed I think the riots, for now, are largely done

    Pray that I’m right!

    Hope you're right.
    If you are, no doubt you'll be singing Starmer's praises for dealing with it all so well.
    Ah, nope

    I believe riots have a life cycle, a natural term of birth and flourishing and decline. About a week?

    It’s been about a week now
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,785
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    Shapiro not being picked revealed that the number of Jew haters among the Dems is at a level capable of affecting elections.
    Does it ?
    The vast majority of Jewish representation in Congress is Democratic, of course. And Shapiro himself is a very popular Democratic governor.
    The Dems have the support of both Jews and Jew haters.

    Its an interesting source of friction.

    What we have seen in the western world during recent generations has been Jews trending politically to the right and Jew hatred moving politically to the left.

    The USA has seen the second element but, not yet, much of the first.
    Because Jews in Golders Green never voted for Mrs Thatcher to be their MP? This is nuts.

    As for the Dems, Josh Shapiro was in the running until the day before the announcement. They probably already knew he is Jewish by that point. It's not as if he was hiding it. To conclude antisemitism cost Shapiro the VP nominee slot is bizarre.
    It was a factor - 'progressives' didn't like Shapiro:

    The strongest argument against picking Shapiro is rooted in his hardline stance against both the Gaza protests on Pennsylvania university campuses—some of which he compared to white supremacist encampments—and the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement seeking to reverse Israel’s brutal human-rights record in the Occupied Territories. In The New Republic, writer David Klion made the case that Shapiro’s elevation to the ticket would kill off much of the movement energy now marshaled behind Harris’s run.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/josh-shapiro-vp-kamala-harris-wrong/

    Harris is no political fool and capable of seeing the advantages and disadvantages each potential VP candidate brought.
    To accept this thesis demands Kamala and her team not notice Shapiro is Jewish until the last moment, literally the day before the announcement, else he'd have been ruled out weeks ago, or never ruled in.
    No, it merely requires Harris to have considered the relative advantages and disadvantages of each candidate.

    Even with the hostility towards him from 'progressives' Shapiro was a strong candidate.
    Harris is married to a conservative Jewish lawyer. If he's willing to stump for her (which I presume he is), that neutralizes the benefits of Shapiro somewhat.
    The main advantage Shapiro brought was a Pennsylvania boost - I don't see how Harris's husband helps there.

    I do wonder if Harris would have been more likely to pick Shapiro if her own husband had not been Jewish.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not that great a pick, since I lost money on it.

    Won't Kamala please think of my book?

    I did warn you the VP market was unpredictable. Although I missed the chance to short Shapiro, I was green on both of them.
    I missed too.

    I really do think that the Americans need to revise their over protracted Primary system, which seems to consume vast amounts of time and money, and create division within parties. Our parties might want to ponder this too.

    The last fortnight has come up with a better pairing through a much shorter process and unified the party.

    One of the Harris/Walz advantages is to be new and fresh, generating interest and attention at exactly the right time and 3 months to go.
    And most important, generating money.

    I suspect there will be another big uptick in donations after the addition of Walz to the ticket. perhaps even from some big corporate names. Wisconsin under Governor Walz has been very good at attracting inward investment. Corporate USA doesn't seem too worried by the "left wing" tag. Because it is nonsense.
    In that respect, Shapiro and Walz are pretty similar.
    And both have a pretty good record on cutting red tape - "permitting reform" in US parlance" - to enable development.

    If by 'left wing' they mean pro right to choose; public education; public healthcare, then sure. But those are all popular positions.

    As Waltz puts it: "I'm the monster who introduce free school meals".
    He’s also the monster who introduced 40-week abortions and porn in primary schools, in his own state.
    Citation required.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    What a mess that’s been created…

    https://x.com/alexharmstrong/status/1820973805755367458?s=46&t=Vp6NqNN4ktoNY0DO98xlGA

    “I am self-declaring as a “community leader” for white English people.

    From now on, if the police want to manage protests, I demand they speak to me and any other self identified community leaders.

    I will tell the police what style will be suitable for our protests.

    I’m guessing everyone is okay with this. I’m assuming I don’t need to be elected either?

    If it’s acceptable for Birmingham, then it’s acceptable for the rest of us. Equality means equality.”

    I can’t believe this cop hasn’t resigned already this morning
    Why should he do that, when you see the weight of pb thinks this perfectly normal and acceptable, no doubt entirely representative of the view of his westminster paymasters (of all political colours).
    Just as Twitter is not the world, neither is PB. In some ways that’s sad, we’d probably do a better job of governing than the last 8 or so UK governments

    Anyone normal can see this is a frankly outrageous remark by a senior policeman
    Oh I agree. But why do you think 2TK would expect his resignation? And given guidance has unlikely changed since 4th July, would would Sunak demand it either?

    Seems to me that policing of potentially combustible events in some of these combative Muslim groups is done quietly by Thames House secondees. And for all I know, that is the right course. But it would rather indicate that our country has a bigger problem with secretarianism than is being let on.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213
    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    On domestic matters, I fear we have a very tense and potentially unpleasant night ahead. For the first time, it's likely that the far-right 'protests' planned will be met with opposition from anti-fascist groups who have got wind of potential locations and are organising counter-protests, rather than the ad hoc opposition we've seen so far. The police may struggle to keep the two sides apart. Where I live, totally unaffected so far, quite a lot of shops have chosen to close early.
    Let's all hope it comes to nothing and fizzles out as people choose to stay at home.

    Though the police anticipated it well in Leicester last Saturday, with the anti-EDL counter protesters occupying the meeting point before the EDL arrived. It was very well policed, and I felt perfectly safe wandering through. The Saturday afternoon shoppers looked more bemused than intimidated. It helped that the counter-protestors outnumbered the EDL by 10 to 1.

    Yeah - I was bit worried about the counter protests but the sheer scale of them has acted as an effective deterrent in some places.
    It was a completely peaceful and multi racial counter protest too. It's important to show solidarity with threatened communities, and be clear that the EDL do not speak for us all.

    I have supported several of my migrant colleagues at work too who felt threatened by the atmosphere nationally.

    There's quite a lot of fear out there. It took me a bit by surprise as I'd been shrugging it off as mindless hooliganism in a few limited locations, but I was forgetting that the attacks aren't targeted at people who look like me. And of course social media has the effect both of galvanising the rioters themselves and making the country look much more scary than it is in reality. Here's an extract from an official message that went round our firm last night:

    "Good Evening,

    As you will all be aware, the UK has been gripped by civil unrest, demonstrations and violence against ethnic and religious minorities over the last week and there are plans for additional demonstrations over the next few days at least. We share the concerns many of you have expressed about the threats posed by some of these flashpoints across the country, and as such want to add our voices to those of firm leadership encouraging you to prioritise your safety and wellbeing at this time. If you are concerned about travelling to offices or client site, please discuss with your engagement leaders and performance leaders as soon as possible, and avail yourself of the resources here."

    This is the really challenging problem with on the one hand addressing the obviously widely held concerns of parts of the population, and on the other hand protecting a significant part of our population from, at minimum, the sense of being second class citizens. The target of the protests is not government policy, it's actual people and the places they live or worship.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213
    moonshine said:

    That Betfair graph shows that if a week is a long time in politics, the past month has been its own geological epoch.

    On 15th July, Trump was registering a 71% likelihood of being President again. Harris was on just 6%. Three weeks on, it's 50-47. Trump down 21%, Harris up 41%.

    In three weeks.

    And with the Democratic Convention wrapping up on the 22nd August, who can predict what those numbers be in another three weeks...?

    US elections are like a good test match aren't they. Favourite swinging back and forth. Trump is currently bowling on a flat pitch to a ton partnership. The Yorker isn’t working. He’s getting hot and bothered. Does he have a Simon Jones evening session slow bowl inswinger in him?
    Bring on the spinners.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,997

    And now Space Comedy intrudes into politics

    https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/nasa-confirms-slip-of-crew-9-launch-to-late-september-for-flexibility/

    For those who don’t know - NASA contracted with SpaceX and Boeing to provide human access to the International Space Station under the Commercial Crew program.

    SpaceX’s Dragon, launched on Falcon 9 has been up and running for years.

    Boeing is running so late that some thought they might miss the end of the Space Station - due to be decommissioned at the end of this decade.

    Faults, mistakes, failed test flights. It’s been a mess.

    The final checkout flight, with two astronauts, has turned into another mess. The thrusters for the space craft are acting up (among other things). Without thrusters, in space you are dead.

    So the return of the astronauts on the Boeing Starliner has been delayed and now delayed again.

    Further - the reason that the NASA administrator is saying that he will make the final decision is a sign. Within NASA, there is a process, by which an engineer who isn’t happy with a decision can formally kick it upstairs. So there is division in NASA about what to do.

    One option is to return the astronauts on the next SpaceX Dragon. But it turns out that that Boeing deleted the option from Starliner to do an automated, unmanned return. If Starliner can’t leave ISS that’s another disaster - it bock one of the docking ports

    Why politics?

    1) The astronauts abandoning Starliner and going home in Dragon will nearly certainly end the Starliner program. A public humiliation for Boeing.
    2) Boeing has a vast army of political supporters - the decision is political
    3) if the astronauts return in Starliner and there is an accident. It will be a massive thing - hearings in Congress for a start. There would be accusations of political interference.
    4) the NASA admin - Bill Nelson - is a political appointee and former Dem politician.

    This is touching the White House and, potentially, November.

    Not sure the astronauts want to come back on Starliner - would you, in their position?

    If they have what I’ll euphemistically call an adverse event on re-entry, that will sure as hell affect politics in the run up to the election.

    The sensible thing to do is send them back on Dragon, which has its own political implications, but is a lot less likely to end up with two dead explorers.

    Then they need to either work out how to get Starliner back uncrewed, or instead send it off into space somewhere. If it’s stuck attached to the ISS in an unserviceable state, then everyone has several years of looking at it parked there, as a constant reminder of just how badly Boeing screwed the pooch on this one.
  • Maybe the Democrats should run as Make America Smile Again (MASA).

    They're already helping Make America Laugh Again.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,944
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not that great a pick, since I lost money on it.

    Won't Kamala please think of my book?

    I did warn you the VP market was unpredictable. Although I missed the chance to short Shapiro, I was green on both of them.
    I missed too.

    I really do think that the Americans need to revise their over protracted Primary system, which seems to consume vast amounts of time and money, and create division within parties. Our parties might want to ponder this too.

    The last fortnight has come up with a better pairing through a much shorter process and unified the party.

    One of the Harris/Walz advantages is to be new and fresh, generating interest and attention at exactly the right time and 3 months to go.
    And most important, generating money.

    I suspect there will be another big uptick in donations after the addition of Walz to the ticket. perhaps even from some big corporate names. Wisconsin under Governor Walz has been very good at attracting inward investment. Corporate USA doesn't seem too worried by the "left wing" tag. Because it is nonsense.
    In that respect, Shapiro and Walz are pretty similar.
    And both have a pretty good record on cutting red tape - "permitting reform" in US parlance" - to enable development.

    If by 'left wing' they mean pro right to choose; public education; public healthcare, then sure. But those are all popular positions.

    As Waltz puts it: "I'm the monster who introduce free school meals".
    He’s also the monster who introduced 40-week abortions and porn in primary schools, in his own state.
    The Republicans are really worried about this guy, aren't they?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,785

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    Shapiro not being picked revealed that the number of Jew haters among the Dems is at a level capable of affecting elections.
    Does it ?
    The vast majority of Jewish representation in Congress is Democratic, of course. And Shapiro himself is a very popular Democratic governor.
    The Dems have the support of both Jews and Jew haters.

    Its an interesting source of friction.

    What we have seen in the western world during recent generations has been Jews trending politically to the right and Jew hatred moving politically to the left.

    The USA has seen the second element but, not yet, much of the first.
    Plenty of the far right remain steadfast in their hatred of Jews: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/aug/06/far-right-forums-used-to-plan-riots-now-encouraging-antisemitic-attacks , https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67446800 , https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-anti-semitism-problem-hungary-jews/ etc.
    There are fringe nutters in this country and perhaps more so in other European countries - AfD for example.

    And I suspect that the 'backstabber' rhetoric used against Miliband in 2015 had a tinge of antisemitism.

    But the prominent politicians who have been caught up in antisemitism allegations have been leftists - Corbyn, Livingstone, Abbott among them.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,379

    I hope you all spot the subtle pun in the headline.

    "A Balls to the Walz campaign". You can have that one for free for your next article. :)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,701
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I’ve got a suspicion these planned “30 attacks” on lawyers etc won’t actually materialise and we will see basically nothing. Maybe a few kids. Its probably the coppers (understandably) jumping at ghosts and bots on Telegram, who are deliberately trying to spook them

    Indeed I think the riots, for now, are largely done

    Pray that I’m right!

    Hope you're right.
    If you are, no doubt you'll be singing Starmer's praises for dealing with it all so well.
    Ah, nope

    I believe riots have a life cycle, a natural term of birth and flourishing and decline. About a week?

    It’s been about a week now
    It hasn’t rained, though. To stop rioting heavy rain is needed.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,944
    Looks like we are close to CROSSOVER.

    The far-right might overtake Islamic extremism as to what people think is a big threat to the UK.

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1821111700126372182

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,430
    edited August 7

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Watching Walz, I was reminded of how British politicians in their prime like William Hague and Boris Johnson could use humour to demolish opponents. Coach Walz has that in spades.

    Yes a bit of humour can be devastating. Walz seems like a nice guy but the attacks we are already seeing is that he is another progressive making this slate the most left wing in America's history. It has taken Trump an extraordinarily long time to refocus his guns that were set to attack Biden but that is the direction that they seem to be moving to.

    Will this work? Americans have a very different idea of what is left wing than we do. I think personality matters more these days and Walz seems to have plenty. Still concerned that she didn't go for Shapiro though. That would have broadened the ticket. Lots of Trump outriders expressing relief that she didn't.
    Shapiro not being picked revealed that the number of Jew haters among the Dems is at a level capable of affecting elections.
    Does it ?
    The vast majority of Jewish representation in Congress is Democratic, of course. And Shapiro himself is a very popular Democratic governor.
    The Dems have the support of both Jews and Jew haters.

    Its an interesting source of friction.

    What we have seen in the western world during recent generations has been Jews trending politically to the right and Jew hatred moving politically to the left.

    The USA has seen the second element but, not yet, much of the first.
    Plenty of the far right remain steadfast in their hatred of Jews: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/aug/06/far-right-forums-used-to-plan-riots-now-encouraging-antisemitic-attacks , https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67446800 , https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-anti-semitism-problem-hungary-jews/ etc.
    There are fringe nutters in this country and perhaps more so in other European countries - AfD for example.

    And I suspect that the 'backstabber' rhetoric used against Miliband in 2015 had a tinge of antisemitism.

    But the prominent politicians who have been caught up in antisemitism allegations have been leftists - Corbyn, Livingstone, Abbott among them.
    There has been a terrible problem with antisemitism on the left. But the right in the UK still has a problem too:

    * https://www.haaretz.com/jewish/2024-06-23/ty-article/.premium/u-k-reform-party-candidate-blames-powerful-jewish-groups-for-muslim-immigration/00000190-458e-d16c-a7b0-5f8fa62b0000
    * https://news.sky.com/story/reform-candidates-accused-of-antisemitic-posts-13160663
    * https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jun/28/jewish-groups-and-mps-condemn-nigel-farage-for-antisemitic-dog-whistles
    * https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/02/15/tory-mayor-salisbury-atiqul-hoque-expelled-antisemitism/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Not that great a pick, since I lost money on it.

    Won't Kamala please think of my book?

    I did warn you the VP market was unpredictable. Although I missed the chance to short Shapiro, I was green on both of them.
    I missed too.

    I really do think that the Americans need to revise their over protracted Primary system, which seems to consume vast amounts of time and money, and create division within parties. Our parties might want to ponder this too.

    The last fortnight has come up with a better pairing through a much shorter process and unified the party.

    One of the Harris/Walz advantages is to be new and fresh, generating interest and attention at exactly the right time and 3 months to go.
    And most important, generating money.

    I suspect there will be another big uptick in donations after the addition of Walz to the ticket. perhaps even from some big corporate names. Wisconsin under Governor Walz has been very good at attracting inward investment. Corporate USA doesn't seem too worried by the "left wing" tag. Because it is nonsense.
    In that respect, Shapiro and Walz are pretty similar.
    And both have a pretty good record on cutting red tape - "permitting reform" in US parlance" - to enable development.

    If by 'left wing' they mean pro right to choose; public education; public healthcare, then sure. But those are all popular positions.

    As Waltz puts it: "I'm the monster who introduce free school meals".
    He’s also the monster who introduced 40-week abortions and porn in primary schools, in his own state.
    If you've got primary school kids needing abortions I say give them the porn, hopefully it'll keep them occupied.

    That said, you may have fallen victim to an algorithm.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited August 7
    Carnage in the men’s 5000!
This discussion has been closed.