People in Yardley are scared tonight. We have directed police to all locations of violence we are hearing about. Any acts of violence will not be tolerated.
Loads of videos springing up online taken from outside that pub. Feels rather like things are still at the escalation point rather than on the way down. Hopefully the pending Iranian attack is another wet blanket that does not lead to further counter strikes, not what is needed on British streets right now.
What's the likelihood of us finishing ahead of the French at these Olympics?
We should do well in the velodrome and there's still maybe one or two golds in the athletics for us plus the odd one here or there. I think we could end at or near 22 golds. I'm not sure the French have got much left in the tank for athletics and their track cycling team isn't as strong as ours, the men's pursuit team finished in 5th in qualifying so they won't even figure for the gold medal matches and it's a fairly good barometer of overall team strength for medals on the track.
What's annoying is that we've been on the wrong side of a bunch of 50/50 gold/silver medals losing golds for hundredths of seconds which is basically random chance at that point. If half of those had gone our way instead of the sort of fifth that we seem to have got we'd be another 3 or 4 gold medals up and we'd be looking at a properly banner games.
And Apple and Meta and Microsoft and X and Amazon? All the big tech companies have an effective or near monopoly in their main field so inevitably this could see more cases to come. Indeed there are already cases pending against Apple and Amazon
Evening pb. It still feels odd to be holidaying in the Netherlands. This is one of Europe's most densely populated corners. Every scrap of land is used. There is little in the way of natural beauty. Travel about by car, and it feels like you are on the fringes of an endless new town. The functional is everywhere. You arrive at your destination straight off a string of dual carriageways packed with commuters homing from Rotterdam and Den Haag. And yet where the land is designated for loveliness and leisure, it is indeed lovely, and the opportunity for fun is endless. We have spent the evening at Wassenaar beach (which I think glories under the Dutch name of Wassenaar slag, though I may be misunderstanding.) It is by some measures the finest beach in Europe. Clean - oh so very clean - almost entirely free of stone and seaweed, and improbably warm - far warmer than Cornwall. We arrived at 8pm and were able to swim for 40 minutes without getting cold. It is the Netherlands in miniature: it doesn't have the natural beauty of Cornwall or the Hebrides or the Greek Islands, but it makes improbably good use of what it has. Also happy to report that despite the stereotype, every single Dutch person we have met has been friendly and charming.
And Apple and Meta and Microsoft and X? All the big tech companies have an effective or near monopoly in their main field so inevitably this could see more cases to come
Is there any way we can turn off twitter for a day, calm things down a little
And Apple and Meta and Microsoft and X? All the big tech companies have an effective or near monopoly in their main field so inevitably this could see more cases to come
Funny thing about this judgement is that it might cost Apple $20 billion a year. I'm 90% sure Google could find a better use for the money. Much like Microsoft pivoting to online services after the judgements against them,
OK, I've just rewatched Skyfall: it's pretty good, with some superb acting, particularly from Bérénice Marlohe. Maybe I misjudged it.
Not sure how the BBC are going to treat the Huw Edwards cameo in it though.
For some reason the brocollis haven’t delivered two consecutive bangers in decades. I always loved Skyfall but thought it rather let down by the silly ret conning in Spectre, which was only ok. The last one by pattern should have been a banger and it had potential. But they dropped a bollock by editing out the killer virus to be killer nanobots, inexplicably underused the baddie and then delivered perhaps the worst movie ending in Hollywood history.
I’m hoping for a bond prequel movie set in the tail end of WW2, leading into a slickly produced period recreation of the original content. Mad Men fashion, the cars, the music, proper Russian baddies. The modern stuff doesn’t work, the villains should be Chinese communists but the money men refuse to allow it.
What's the likelihood of us finishing ahead of the French at these Olympics?
We should do well in the velodrome and there's still maybe one or two golds in the athletics for us plus the odd one here or there. I think we could end at or near 22 golds. I'm not sure the French have got much left in the tank for athletics and their track cycling team isn't as strong as ours, the men's pursuit team finished in 5th in qualifying so they won't even figure for the gold medal matches and it's a fairly good barometer of overall team strength for medals on the track.
What's annoying is that we've been on the wrong side of a bunch of 50/50 gold/silver medals losing golds for hundredths of seconds which is basically random chance at that point. If half of those had gone our way instead of the sort of fifth that we seem to have got we'd be another 3 or 4 gold medals up and we'd be looking at a properly banner games.
France have just lost a squeaker in the 3 man basketball
There really is something sulphurous about Matt Goodwin. Incendiary views. Suspect opinion polls. Massive self-obsession. British public life would be so much better without him.
This misses the mark. It may be too early to be pointing out that riots are the voice of the unheard, but there will, I suspect, be too many people who won't in this case find it convenient to remember the aphorism at any stage. First however there needs to be law and justice done on some terrible rioters. But Brixton (1981) ended up with Lord Scarman's report. Matt Goodwin will be one of the few making the point with a degree of rationality that law and justice (long prison for some) needs to be followed by consideration of why, as at Brixton, NI, Toxteth, Hackney etc, people rioted and in what sense it represents the unheard.
Unheard demand for free Crocs and cosmetics perhaps:
Hasn’t there been a lot of tourists rioting in many locations - this isn’t like the previous riots where the rioters were local people
Yes it looks like there is a rentacrowd aspect. I don't think that alters the long term need, after severe justice is done, to think about why it happens and what it says about our politics, relationships and civilisation.
It is hard for a liberal society to avoid scapegoating, but it is of the essence of a liberal society to try hard not to.
A quick Google suggests that Caracas has a higher murder rate than any US city.
You didn’t imagine Trump was actually telling the truth ?
Trump has flip flopped on all manner of stuff - but the one consistent opinion is his admiration for dictators.
He does it a lot, and there seems little upside to doing it (even if he also suffers no downsides for some reason). It's one thing to claim other world leaders love or fear him, or he gets on well with them because he's so great, but he often talks up how strong they are, how their people listen to them, it's really weird.
Seeing Keely Hodgkinson run, I definitely need to get some of that baking soda....no that isn't implying she is on the naughty juice, she is big advocate for the baking soda stuff.
A quick Google suggests that Caracas has a higher murder rate than any US city.
You didn’t imagine Trump was actually telling the truth ?
Trump has flip flopped on all manner of stuff - but the one consistent opinion is his admiration for dictators.
Obviously I didn't think he was right, but unlike Trump I do try to check things before I make a claim. I rarely make any similar type of statement without checking first.
The reports out of Capitol Hill are that the Biden admin expects Iranian & associated mates efforts to start tonight or tomorrow.
One of the more interesting elements is that the Iranians are definitely prepping for the Israeli response to reach their territory and by the looks of it be extensive in nature. Some comms in Iran appear to be disrupted but by who and why are unclear. Bear in mind too its well within the Israeli compass to preempt things and get their shot in first and they will if they can get some specifics.
Is there the kind of choreography that happened a number of months back were everyone somewhat understood Iran was going to launch the world's slowest moving attack? I am not sure there is, but you kind of hope so.
Evening pb. It still feels odd to be holidaying in the Netherlands. This is one of Europe's most densely populated corners. Every scrap of land is used. There is little in the way of natural beauty. Travel about by car, and it feels like you are on the fringes of an endless new town. The functional is everywhere. You arrive at your destination straight off a string of dual carriageways packed with commuters homing from Rotterdam and Den Haag. And yet where the land is designated for loveliness and leisure, it is indeed lovely, and the opportunity for fun is endless. We have spent the evening at Wassenaar beach (which I think glories under the Dutch name of Wassenaar slag, though I may be misunderstanding.) It is by some measures the finest beach in Europe. Clean - oh so very clean - almost entirely free of stone and seaweed, and improbably warm - far warmer than Cornwall. We arrived at 8pm and were able to swim for 40 minutes without getting cold. It is the Netherlands in miniature: it doesn't have the natural beauty of Cornwall or the Hebrides or the Greek Islands, but it makes improbably good use of what it has. Also happy to report that despite the stereotype, every single Dutch person we have met has been friendly and charming.
OK, I've just rewatched Skyfall: it's pretty good, with some superb acting, particularly from Bérénice Marlohe. Maybe I misjudged it.
Not sure how the BBC are going to treat the Huw Edwards cameo in it though.
For some reason the brocollis haven’t delivered two consecutive bangers in decades. I always loved Skyfall but thought it rather let down by the silly ret conning in Spectre, which was only ok. The last one by pattern should have been a banger and it had potential. But they dropped a bollock by editing out the killer virus to be killer nanobots, inexplicably underused the baddie and then delivered perhaps the worst movie ending in Hollywood history.
I’m hoping for a bond prequel movie set in the tail end of WW2, leading into a slickly produced period recreation of the original content. Mad Men fashion, the cars, the music, proper Russian baddies. The modern stuff doesn’t work, the villains should be Chinese communists but the money men refuse to allow it.
No Time To Die is the only Bond film I have never watched more than once.
It's like they spent 4 films fully rebooting the franchise, and then decided to burn the house down in the last.
What's the likelihood of us finishing ahead of the French at these Olympics?
We should do well in the velodrome and there's still maybe one or two golds in the athletics for us plus the odd one here or there. I think we could end at or near 22 golds. I'm not sure the French have got much left in the tank for athletics and their track cycling team isn't as strong as ours, the men's pursuit team finished in 5th in qualifying so they won't even figure for the gold medal matches and it's a fairly good barometer of overall team strength for medals on the track.
What's annoying is that we've been on the wrong side of a bunch of 50/50 gold/silver medals losing golds for hundredths of seconds which is basically random chance at that point. If half of those had gone our way instead of the sort of fifth that we seem to have got we'd be another 3 or 4 gold medals up and we'd be looking at a properly banner games.
France have just lost a squeaker in the 3 man basketball
Evening pb. It still feels odd to be holidaying in the Netherlands. This is one of Europe's most densely populated corners. Every scrap of land is used. There is little in the way of natural beauty. Travel about by car, and it feels like you are on the fringes of an endless new town. The functional is everywhere. You arrive at your destination straight off a string of dual carriageways packed with commuters homing from Rotterdam and Den Haag. And yet where the land is designated for loveliness and leisure, it is indeed lovely, and the opportunity for fun is endless. We have spent the evening at Wassenaar beach (which I think glories under the Dutch name of Wassenaar slag, though I may be misunderstanding.) It is by some measures the finest beach in Europe. Clean - oh so very clean - almost entirely free of stone and seaweed, and improbably warm - far warmer than Cornwall. We arrived at 8pm and were able to swim for 40 minutes without getting cold. It is the Netherlands in miniature: it doesn't have the natural beauty of Cornwall or the Hebrides or the Greek Islands, but it makes improbably good use of what it has. Also happy to report that despite the stereotype, every single Dutch person we have met has been friendly and charming.
See: lovely.
You need to race in to save Diana Rigg, to a Barry soundtrack.
Evening pb. It still feels odd to be holidaying in the Netherlands. This is one of Europe's most densely populated corners. Every scrap of land is used. There is little in the way of natural beauty. Travel about by car, and it feels like you are on the fringes of an endless new town. The functional is everywhere. You arrive at your destination straight off a string of dual carriageways packed with commuters homing from Rotterdam and Den Haag. And yet where the land is designated for loveliness and leisure, it is indeed lovely, and the opportunity for fun is endless. We have spent the evening at Wassenaar beach (which I think glories under the Dutch name of Wassenaar slag, though I may be misunderstanding.) It is by some measures the finest beach in Europe. Clean - oh so very clean - almost entirely free of stone and seaweed, and improbably warm - far warmer than Cornwall. We arrived at 8pm and were able to swim for 40 minutes without getting cold. It is the Netherlands in miniature: it doesn't have the natural beauty of Cornwall or the Hebrides or the Greek Islands, but it makes improbably good use of what it has. Also happy to report that despite the stereotype, every single Dutch person we have met has been friendly and charming.
See: lovely.
The dog for scale seems to have fallen headfirst from an aeroplane.
What's the likelihood of us finishing ahead of the French at these Olympics?
We should do well in the velodrome and there's still maybe one or two golds in the athletics for us plus the odd one here or there. I think we could end at or near 22 golds. I'm not sure the French have got much left in the tank for athletics and their track cycling team isn't as strong as ours, the men's pursuit team finished in 5th in qualifying so they won't even figure for the gold medal matches and it's a fairly good barometer of overall team strength for medals on the track.
What's annoying is that we've been on the wrong side of a bunch of 50/50 gold/silver medals losing golds for hundredths of seconds which is basically random chance at that point. If half of those had gone our way instead of the sort of fifth that we seem to have got we'd be another 3 or 4 gold medals up and we'd be looking at a properly banner games.
France have just lost a squeaker in the 3 man basketball
I think if we beat France at their home games it will be a bit embarrassing for them, in the run up to 2012 we almost doubled the budget for Olympic sports funding and we ramped up at Beijing pretty nicely (best European country except the Russians which was mostly due to doping) for a really great finish in London where we came 3rd and then that ran into Rio where we came 2nd ahead of China.
France should really be looking to get a 3rd place finish behind China and the US but I think it will be us or Japan.
Why is the United States so poor at the 3x3 Basketball? Bronze in the women's, 7th place in the men's. Surely they should be among the best?
Not really. EuroBasket is really improving. And there is simply too much money to be made in the US from regular balling. The US are minor College/amateur. Europeans are the three who didn't quite make the regular squad.
Why is the United States so poor at the 3x3 Basketball? Bronze in the women's, 7th place in the men's. Surely they should be among the best?
Not really. EuroBasket is really improving. And there is simply too much money to be made in the US from regular balling.
Also if I remember correctly NBA teams are very funny about releasing their players (they are under no obligation to do so), same for baseball and ice-hockey (they struggle at those sports at international events as well). Even the 5x5 team isn't the All-Star team, in fact in previous Olympics they took several players who weren't even pros to make up the numbers.
Why is the United States so poor at the 3x3 Basketball? Bronze in the women's, 7th place in the men's. Surely they should be among the best?
Not really. EuroBasket is really improving. And there is simply too much money to be made in the US from regular balling.
Also if I remember correctly NBA teams are very funny about releasing their players (they are under no obligation to do so), same for baseball and ice-hockey (they struggle at those sports at international events as well). Even the 5x5 team isn't the All-Stars, in fact in previous Olympics they took several players who weren't even pros to make up the numbers.
Yeah. See my edit above. Olympic baseball could be great. But they won't comply to WADA. 2 of the first three NBA draft picks were French. EuroBasket is arguably stronger than College. Elite not depth.
Jenna Ellis has given a proffer and has agreed to plead guilty and cooperate with the prosecution against her co-defendants in the AZ fake elector case, which is bad news for Rudy Giuliani & Mark Meadows. https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1820552961820639336
Why is the United States so poor at the 3x3 Basketball? Bronze in the women's, 7th place in the men's. Surely they should be among the best?
Not really. EuroBasket is really improving. And there is simply too much money to be made in the US from regular balling.
Also if I remember correctly NBA teams are very funny about releasing their players (they are under no obligation to do so), same for baseball and ice-hockey (they struggle at those sports at international events as well). Even the 5x5 team isn't the All-Stars, in fact in previous Olympics they took several players who weren't even pros to make up the numbers.
Yeah. See my edit above. Olympic baseball could be great. But they won't comply to WADA.
You aren't suggesting that US sports suffer from the partaking in excessive amount of the old baking sodas....those NFL players have never used a steroid in their lives.
There have been some disturbances within the past hour-and-a-half in Birmingham, after hundreds of people gathered in the Bordesley Green area of the city following false reports a march was planned in the area.
Several vehicles and a pub have been attacked by a group of youths, who broke away from the main demonstration and were wearing masks and carrying weapons.
West Midlands police have said there have been at least three cases of criminal damage, and one offence where someone was seen carrying an offensive weapon.
There have been some disturbances within the past hour-and-a-half in Birmingham, after hundreds of people gathered in the Bordesley Green area of the city following false reports a march was planned in the area.
Several vehicles and a pub have been attacked by a group of youths, who broke away from the main demonstration and were wearing masks and carrying weapons.
West Midlands police have said there have been at least three cases of criminal damage, and one offence where someone was seen carrying an offensive weapon.
Starmer needs to get on top of this as well. Its isn't about making false equivalences, but he needs to come out and say vigilante and revenge actions will also not be tolerated.
One of the problems with Israel - which I have visited, many times - is that you soon realise many of them really do have these quite Nazi/South African dispositions towards the Palestinians
They think the Arabs are a lowlier caste, poisoned with anti Semitism, inbred, violent and stupid
So then of course your liberal western sympathies shift to the Palestinians. And they are charming and hospitable people on the West Bank. And you reassure them of your sympathy
And then, once reassured; they say “well of course we want to drive all the Jews into the sea. Let them be gone. This is our land”
And then, PB, what exactly do you do? Who do you support? My atavistic sense is: let them fight it out
This is the problem when you get down to it: it is Alien v Predator.
The west should not get involved at all. Stop arming Isreal.
There have been a number of polls announced over and following the weekend. Harris is up with YouGov, TIPP and Morning Consult. With the latter she has gone from +1 (Jul 30-Aug 1) to +4 (Aug 2-4). 538 now has Harris leading by between 1 and 5 points in all the last ten published polls. On average, 538 gives her a 1.9% lead, on a steady upward climb.
And Real Clear Politics? They've managed to add the latest few... but still, somehow, the Harris +5 from RMG which was released on Friday hasn't made it in to their tables. Funny that. Even RCP can only find two polls with Trump ahead, from the comedy act that is Rasmussen Reports.
Lessons: 1. Harris is leading, and the lead is improving (figures can go down as well as up, of course) 2. It's all to play for. 3. Never ever use RCP figures.
On the subject of the US election, I just had a look at the Betfair markets for individual states to see what the electoral college would produce if the favourite won each state. Well the markets have Trump winning Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, all the others remaining as they were. That would have given Harris 273 to 265. But they have changed the votes each state gets to reflect th census so it becomes 270 to 268. And this assumes the Nebraska 2nd District (Omaha), which goes its own way, stays with Harris, which is very uncertain as it has been very marginal in recent elections. If it goes to Trump it is 269-269 and that means he wins I think. We need the Wizard to return home do his magic, I am sure the Sage will help him.
One of the problems with Israel - which I have visited, many times - is that you soon realise many of them really do have these quite Nazi/South African dispositions towards the Palestinians
They think the Arabs are a lowlier caste, poisoned with anti Semitism, inbred, violent and stupid
So then of course your liberal western sympathies shift to the Palestinians. And they are charming and hospitable people on the West Bank. And you reassure them of your sympathy
And then, once reassured; they say “well of course we want to drive all the Jews into the sea. Let them be gone. This is our land”
And then, PB, what exactly do you do? Who do you support? My atavistic sense is: let them fight it out
This is the problem when you get down to it: it is Alien v Predator.
The west should not get involved at all. Stop arming Isreal.
The thing is, there is so much anti-Israel/pro-Palestine 'noise' around that we probably have to arm Israel a little bit just to appear balanced overall on the international stage.
It's like that South Park episode where they observe that the great thing about the USA is being able to go to war and simultaneously protest the act of going to war.
Darshna Soni @darshnasoni · 34m “We’ve come to apologise to everyone drinking here, what’s happening doesn’t represent us” We’re at the Clumsy Swan in Birmingham, a group of young Asians heard the EDL were inside & came to confront them. Older guys in the community calmed things down and sent them home.
Jess Phillips @jessphillips · Aug 4 So much of the aggression on our streets these days is done in full glare of cameras on purpose entirely because it is content creation.
Jess Phillips @jessphillips · Aug 4 So much of the aggression on our streets these days is done in full glare of cameras on purpose entirely because it is content creation.
Clock stopped and all that....she is bang on here.
Jess Phillips @jessphillips · Aug 4 So much of the aggression on our streets these days is done in full glare of cameras on purpose entirely because it is content creation.
You couldn't link to the tweet (I assume it was a tweet), could you? For we non-users.
Jess Phillips @jessphillips · Aug 4 So much of the aggression on our streets these days is done in full glare of cameras on purpose entirely because it is content creation.
Clock stopped and all that....she is bang on here.
Yes the first protestors were mostly far-right EDL types, but over the weekend it has mainly seemed to be younger opportunist berks who think a bit of rioting and looting might be a laugh. A bit like with the London Riots in 2011 the initial issue soon faded away and people were mainly in it for the vandalism and looting.
Jess Phillips @jessphillips · Aug 4 So much of the aggression on our streets these days is done in full glare of cameras on purpose entirely because it is content creation.
I like the aggression being in full view of cameras, it makes it so much easier to nick them and keep them in prison for a long time.
Just stay off Twitter. Or X. Or whatever it calls itself. It's not compulsory.
It does seem compulsory, if you do use it, to quote-tweet it but not link to it. I always picture the 1950s monkey experiments where they made them batter little keys until a light went on and they got a food pellet.
Andrea Jenkyn on Newsnight. Worth a watch. She's dreadful!
She complains that people in north can't get housing.
Her party spent 14 years blocking any changes that would allow housebuilding.
She’s a loathsome far right apologist . And I’m sick of reading desperate attempts by some to try and excuse the behavior of the vermin causing all this destruction .
One of the problems with Israel - which I have visited, many times - is that you soon realise many of them really do have these quite Nazi/South African dispositions towards the Palestinians
They think the Arabs are a lowlier caste, poisoned with anti Semitism, inbred, violent and stupid
So then of course your liberal western sympathies shift to the Palestinians. And they are charming and hospitable people on the West Bank. And you reassure them of your sympathy
And then, once reassured; they say “well of course we want to drive all the Jews into the sea. Let them be gone. This is our land”
And then, PB, what exactly do you do? Who do you support? My atavistic sense is: let them fight it out
This is the problem when you get down to it: it is Alien v Predator.
The west should not get involved at all. Stop arming Isreal.
Trouble is that Israel is almost certainly more liberal and friendly to the West than any other state that might conceivably replace it.
An interesting aspect is Trump falling behind Harris in the polls means he may not be able to afford not to debate Harris like he could if he was safely in the lead.
And as Harris' lead grows, which I expect it will going into VP pick and convention, the more Trump needs to debate her to put her in her place..
Which I think will only help Harris further as we get a new contrast in the 'most senile old man in the Presidential debate' competition.
One of the problems with Israel - which I have visited, many times - is that you soon realise many of them really do have these quite Nazi/South African dispositions towards the Palestinians
They think the Arabs are a lowlier caste, poisoned with anti Semitism, inbred, violent and stupid
So then of course your liberal western sympathies shift to the Palestinians. And they are charming and hospitable people on the West Bank. And you reassure them of your sympathy
And then, once reassured; they say “well of course we want to drive all the Jews into the sea. Let them be gone. This is our land”
And then, PB, what exactly do you do? Who do you support? My atavistic sense is: let them fight it out
This is the problem when you get down to it: it is Alien v Predator.
The west should not get involved at all. Stop arming Isreal.
Trouble is that Israel is almost certainly more liberal and friendly to the West than any other state that might conceivably replace it.
There really is something sulphurous about Matt Goodwin. Incendiary views. Suspect opinion polls. Massive self-obsession. British public life would be so much better without him.
Starmer is going to undertake a total root and branch reform of Ofcom very shortly I predict.
Totally unfit for purpose in current crisis.
He's not a root and brand reform man, especially when it comes to his beloved public sector.
He's a technocrat. I've worked in the quangocracy, I know the type. They think a bit of tweaking with governmental structures, getting people of goodwill (defined as those who already agree with him obviously) around a table and a policy announcement or two can solve deep-rooted and complex problems.
He'll make some noises, set up a commission, issue a green paper or six and maybe shuffle some staff around, but it'll be basically the same organisation staffed by the same mediocrities in five years' time as it is now.
Starmer is going to undertake a total root and branch reform of Ofcom very shortly I predict.
Totally unfit for purpose in current crisis.
He's not a root and brand reform man, especially when it comes to his beloved public sector.
He's a technocrat. I've worked in the quangocracy, I know the type. They think a bit of tweaking with governmental structures, getting people of goodwill (defined as those who already agree with him obviously) around a table and a policy announcement or two can solve deep-rooted and complex problems.
He'll make some noises, set up a commission, issue a green paper or six and maybe shuffle some staff around, but it'll be basically the same organisation staffed by the same mediocrities in five years' time as it is now.
In which case Ofcom will be a beacon of stability. On current showing the rest of the world will have gone to hell in a handcart long before five years are up.
Does Donald Trump's most recent admiration for neo-Commie dictator AND fellow election denier Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, eliminate the slightest scintilla of doubt, that DJT has his fat head totally up the fundament of neo-Commie dictator Vladimir Putin?
There really is something sulphurous about Matt Goodwin. Incendiary views. Suspect opinion polls. Massive self-obsession. British public life would be so much better without him.
I heard him on the radio ....'Any Questions' I think and I thought he was dreadful. Admitedly i'm not a fan of right wing Faragists but his manner was grating. Arrogant without any discernable personality
Are the opinion pollsters suddenly reluctant to carry out a voting intention polls?
It's been over a month since the general election and we've had several polls charting the SKS's personal ratings but only one voting intention poll.
What's going on?
Its normal. No one is interested in voting intentions less than a month after a GE and probably 4 yars at least before the next one. As Francis points out it costs a substantial amount of money and really tells us nothing. The individual popularity polling is a lot more interesting and probably more informative.
Are the opinion pollsters suddenly reluctant to carry out a voting intention polls?
It's been over a month since the general election and we've had several polls charting the SKS's personal ratings but only one voting intention poll.
What's going on?
I'm no expert, but from my understanding of it;
The election came. The election went. Political polling doesn't make money. They do it as a mostly loss-leading marketing exercise in the run up to elections in the hope the exposure will help them flog their market intelligence, or whatever it is is their main business, to companies looking to enter new markets or whatever.
In short, nobody is paying for political opinion polls, right now, so they don't happen.
Starmer is going to undertake a total root and branch reform of Ofcom very shortly I predict.
Totally unfit for purpose in current crisis.
He's not a root and brand reform man, especially when it comes to his beloved public sector.
He's a technocrat. I've worked in the quangocracy, I know the type. They think a bit of tweaking with governmental structures, getting people of goodwill (defined as those who already agree with him obviously) around a table and a policy announcement or two can solve deep-rooted and complex problems.
He'll make some noises, set up a commission, issue a green paper or six and maybe shuffle some staff around, but it'll be basically the same organisation staffed by the same mediocrities in five years' time as it is now.
"Several police officers injured as 'sustained violence' breaks out in Plymouth"
Hang them from tower Bridge failing that a mug shots on the 10PM News like they did with the ones today from Sunderland. I wonder if any of them had a job? They won't now!
Are the opinion pollsters suddenly reluctant to carry out a voting intention polls?
It's been over a month since the general election and we've had several polls charting the SKS's personal ratings but only one voting intention poll.
What's going on?
Its normal. No one is interested in voting intentions less than a month after a GE and probably 4 yars at least before the next one. As Francis points out it costs a substantial amount of money and really tells us nothing. The individual popularity polling is a lot more interesting and probably more informative.
I mean if you're Opinium, and you're doing on leadership rating poll (which incidentally finds SKS personal approval rating has dropped from +18 to +3 in less than a fortnight) wouldn't you conduct a voting intention poll while you're at it?
Just seems a bit strange but maybe we'll get a VI soon?
Does Donald Trump's most recent admiration for neo-Commie dictator AND fellow election denier Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, eliminate the slightest scintilla of doubt, that DJT has his fat head totally up the fundament of neo-Commie dictator Vladimir Putin?
Are the opinion pollsters suddenly reluctant to carry out a voting intention polls?
It's been over a month since the general election and we've had several polls charting the SKS's personal ratings but only one voting intention poll.
What's going on?
Its normal. No one is interested in voting intentions less than a month after a GE and probably 4 yars at least before the next one. As Francis points out it costs a substantial amount of money and really tells us nothing. The individual popularity polling is a lot more interesting and probably more informative.
I mean if you're Opinium, and you're doing on leadership rating poll (which incidentally finds SKS personal approval rating has dropped from +18 to +3 in less than a fortnight) wouldn't you conduct a voting intention poll while you're at it?
Just seems a bit strange but maybe we'll get a VI soon>
Many of the pollsters are not doing that since they got the labour lead so wrong
Are the opinion pollsters suddenly reluctant to carry out a voting intention polls?
It's been over a month since the general election and we've had several polls charting the SKS's personal ratings but only one voting intention poll.
What's going on?
Its normal. No one is interested in voting intentions less than a month after a GE and probably 4 yars at least before the next one. As Francis points out it costs a substantial amount of money and really tells us nothing. The individual popularity polling is a lot more interesting and probably more informative.
I mean if you're Opinium, and you're doing on leadership rating poll (which incidentally finds SKS personal approval rating has dropped from +18 to +3 in less than a fortnight) wouldn't you conduct a voting intention poll while you're at it?
Just seems a bit strange but maybe we'll get a VI soon>
Many of the pollsters are not doing that since they got the labour lead so wrong
Election 2024 was a bit a polling shambles for sure (masked by Labour still getting a landslide regardless) but that's no excuse for just giving up lol!
It's the age old problem of opinion pollsters over-stating Labour within their sample but polls are still interesting snap shots anyway, right?
Minnesota has voted for every Democratic candidate since 1976. If Harris is stupid enough to pick Walz over Shapiro, governor of PA ie the key swing state this election, then Trump has just been given a massive get out of jail card after he picked Vance as his VP pick
Comments
What's annoying is that we've been on the wrong side of a bunch of 50/50 gold/silver medals losing golds for hundredths of seconds which is basically random chance at that point. If half of those had gone our way instead of the sort of fifth that we seem to have got we'd be another 3 or 4 gold medals up and we'd be looking at a properly banner games.
It still feels odd to be holidaying in the Netherlands. This is one of Europe's most densely populated corners. Every scrap of land is used. There is little in the way of natural beauty. Travel about by car, and it feels like you are on the fringes of an endless new town. The functional is everywhere. You arrive at your destination straight off a string of dual carriageways packed with commuters homing from Rotterdam and Den Haag.
And yet where the land is designated for loveliness and leisure, it is indeed lovely, and the opportunity for fun is endless.
We have spent the evening at Wassenaar beach (which I think glories under the Dutch name of Wassenaar slag, though I may be misunderstanding.) It is by some measures the finest beach in Europe. Clean - oh so very clean - almost entirely free of stone and seaweed, and improbably warm - far warmer than Cornwall. We arrived at 8pm and were able to swim for 40 minutes without getting cold. It is the Netherlands in miniature: it doesn't have the natural beauty of Cornwall or the Hebrides or the Greek Islands, but it makes improbably good use of what it has.
Also happy to report that despite the stereotype, every single Dutch person we have met has been friendly and charming.
Trump has flip flopped on all manner of stuff - but the one consistent opinion is his admiration for dictators.
I’m hoping for a bond prequel movie set in the tail end of WW2, leading into a slickly produced period recreation of the original content. Mad Men fashion, the cars, the music, proper Russian baddies. The modern stuff doesn’t work, the villains should be Chinese communists but the money men refuse to allow it.
It is hard for a liberal society to avoid scapegoating, but it is of the essence of a liberal society to try hard not to.
One of the more interesting elements is that the Iranians are definitely prepping for the Israeli response to reach their territory and by the looks of it be extensive in nature. Some comms in Iran appear to be disrupted but by who and why are unclear. Bear in mind too its well within the Israeli compass to preempt things and get their shot in first and they will if they can get some specifics.
Is there the kind of choreography that happened a number of months back were everyone somewhat understood Iran was going to launch the world's slowest moving attack? I am not sure there is, but you kind of hope so.
It's like they spent 4 films fully rebooting the franchise, and then decided to burn the house down in the last.
"Sky News reporter warned 'stop' as 'missiles' thrown close to cameras in Plymouth riot"
France should really be looking to get a 3rd place finish behind China and the US but I think it will be us or Japan.
The US are minor College/amateur. Europeans are the three who didn't quite make the regular squad.
https://x.com/viktorikolibri/status/1817507058343714890?t=Q6YqZuOt6LN-J6a18M0icQ&s=19
Looking at 3x3 US have, they are aren't pros.
Olympic baseball could be great. But they won't comply to WADA.
2 of the first three NBA draft picks were French. EuroBasket is arguably stronger than College. Elite not depth.
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1820552961820639336
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cw5yyynpwnzt
There have been some disturbances within the past hour-and-a-half in Birmingham, after hundreds of people gathered in the Bordesley Green area of the city following false reports a march was planned in the area.
Several vehicles and a pub have been attacked by a group of youths, who broke away from the main demonstration and were wearing masks and carrying weapons.
West Midlands police have said there have been at least three cases of criminal damage, and one offence where someone was seen carrying an offensive weapon.
Totally unfit for purpose in current crisis.
There have been a number of polls announced over and following the weekend. Harris is up with YouGov, TIPP and Morning Consult. With the latter she has gone from +1 (Jul 30-Aug 1) to +4 (Aug 2-4). 538 now has Harris leading by between 1 and 5 points in all the last ten published polls. On average, 538 gives her a 1.9% lead, on a steady upward climb.
And Real Clear Politics? They've managed to add the latest few... but still, somehow, the Harris +5 from RMG which was released on Friday hasn't made it in to their tables. Funny that. Even RCP can only find two polls with Trump ahead, from the comedy act that is Rasmussen Reports.
Lessons:
1. Harris is leading, and the lead is improving (figures can go down as well as up, of course)
2. It's all to play for.
3. Never ever use RCP figures.
Well the markets have Trump winning Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, all the others remaining as they were. That would have given Harris 273 to 265. But they have changed the votes each state gets to reflect th census so it becomes 270 to 268. And this assumes the Nebraska 2nd District (Omaha), which goes its own way, stays with Harris, which is very uncertain as it has been very marginal in recent elections. If it goes to Trump it is 269-269 and that means he wins I think.
We need the Wizard to return home do his magic, I am sure the Sage will help him.
The thing is, there is so much anti-Israel/pro-Palestine 'noise' around that we probably have to arm Israel a little bit just to appear balanced overall on the international stage.
It's like that South Park episode where they observe that the great thing about the USA is being able to go to war and simultaneously protest the act of going to war.
Darshna Soni
@darshnasoni
·
34m
“We’ve come to apologise to everyone drinking here, what’s happening doesn’t represent us”
We’re at the Clumsy Swan in Birmingham, a group of young Asians heard the EDL were inside & came to confront them. Older guys in the community calmed things down and sent them home.
She is expected to make her decision by Tuesday morning at the latest, as she plans to rally with her running mate in Philadelphia later that day.
NY Times
Jess Phillips
@jessphillips
·
Aug 4
So much of the aggression on our streets these days is done in full glare of cameras on purpose entirely because it is content creation.
It's not compulsory.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/plymouth-riots-southport-protesters-police-devon-cornwall-b1174872.html
"Several police officers injured as 'sustained violence' breaks out in Plymouth"
Her party spent 14 years blocking any changes that would allow housebuilding.
And as Harris' lead grows, which I expect it will going into VP pick and convention, the more Trump needs to debate her to put her in her place..
Which I think will only help Harris further as we get a new contrast in the 'most senile old man in the Presidential debate' competition.
He's a technocrat. I've worked in the quangocracy, I know the type. They think a bit of tweaking with governmental structures, getting people of goodwill (defined as those who already agree with him obviously) around a table and a policy announcement or two can solve deep-rooted and complex problems.
He'll make some noises, set up a commission, issue a green paper or six and maybe shuffle some staff around, but it'll be basically the same organisation staffed by the same mediocrities in five years' time as it is now.
https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-vp-nominee?tid=1722896910074
It's been over a month since the general election and we've had several polls charting the SKS's personal ratings but only one voting intention poll.
What's going on?
Hell YES!
Seems odd?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
The election came. The election went. Political polling doesn't make money. They do it as a mostly loss-leading marketing exercise in the run up to elections in the hope the exposure will help them flog their market intelligence, or whatever it is is their main business, to companies looking to enter new markets or whatever.
In short, nobody is paying for political opinion polls, right now, so they don't happen.
Just seems a bit strange but maybe we'll get a VI soon?
It looks like Walz?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0k44x6mge3o
Looking to beat up a white person.
Social media has caused a frenzy and I think we need drastic action over it in the next few days. Rumours are leading to violence and revenge violence
It's the age old problem of opinion pollsters over-stating Labour within their sample but polls are still interesting snap shots anyway, right?