Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Team Harris will take this right now – politicalbetting.com

123468

Comments

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755

    https://x.com/jessphillips/status/1820557465001570462

    People in Yardley are scared tonight. We have directed police to all locations of violence we are hearing about. Any acts of violence will not be tolerated.

    Loads of videos springing up online taken from outside that pub. Feels rather like things are still at the escalation point rather than on the way down. Hopefully the pending Iranian attack is another wet blanket that does not lead to further counter strikes, not what is needed on British streets right now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,683
    KnightOut said:

    Sandpit said:

    Picture of the day.

    No-one went home early, did they?


    Much better than staying up for Portillo. Nowhere near as late either.
    What event is Portillo competing in?
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    tlg86 said:

    That’s one brave Ref not giving that penalty.

    Probably less scared of 70k French than 11 Egyptians.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,040

    What's the likelihood of us finishing ahead of the French at these Olympics?

    We should do well in the velodrome and there's still maybe one or two golds in the athletics for us plus the odd one here or there. I think we could end at or near 22 golds. I'm not sure the French have got much left in the tank for athletics and their track cycling team isn't as strong as ours, the men's pursuit team finished in 5th in qualifying so they won't even figure for the gold medal matches and it's a fairly good barometer of overall team strength for medals on the track.

    What's annoying is that we've been on the wrong side of a bunch of 50/50 gold/silver medals losing golds for hundredths of seconds which is basically random chance at that point. If half of those had gone our way instead of the sort of fifth that we seem to have got we'd be another 3 or 4 gold medals up and we'd be looking at a properly banner games.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Congratulations to KH btw. On SPOTY, doesn’t always seem to matter, but I’d note she does actually seem to have a personality.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,873
    edited August 5

    Well Google have had their arses handed to them.

    🚨 DOJ v. Google 🚨

    - Court finds that Google has monopoly power in two relevant markets

    - Distribution agreements found to be anticompetitive and in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act

    - Remedies to come


    https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205.1033.0_1.pdf

    And Apple and Meta and Microsoft and X and Amazon? All the big tech companies have an effective or near monopoly in their main field so inevitably this could see more cases to come. Indeed there are already cases pending against Apple and Amazon
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,944
    HYUFD said:

    Well Google have had their arses handed to them.

    🚨 DOJ v. Google 🚨

    - Court finds that Google has monopoly power in two relevant markets

    - Distribution agreements found to be anticompetitive and in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act

    - Remedies to come


    https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205.1033.0_1.pdf

    And Apple and Meta and Microsoft and X? All the big tech companies have an effective or near monopoly in their main field so inevitably this could see more cases to come
    Is there any way we can turn off twitter for a day, calm things down a little
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    HYUFD said:

    Well Google have had their arses handed to them.

    🚨 DOJ v. Google 🚨

    - Court finds that Google has monopoly power in two relevant markets

    - Distribution agreements found to be anticompetitive and in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act

    - Remedies to come


    https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205.1033.0_1.pdf

    And Apple and Meta and Microsoft and X? All the big tech companies have an effective or near monopoly in their main field so inevitably this could see more cases to come
    Funny thing about this judgement is that it might cost Apple $20 billion a year. I'm 90% sure Google could find a better use for the money. Much like Microsoft pivoting to online services after the judgements against them,
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175
    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Q: What do you think about what’s going on in Venezuela?

    Trump: It’s being run by a dictator. And it’s very safe. It’s safer than many of our cities

    https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1820512030681370703

    A quick Google suggests that Caracas has a higher murder rate than any US city.
    You didn’t imagine Trump was actually telling the truth ?

    Trump has flip flopped on all manner of stuff - but the one consistent opinion is his admiration for dictators.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Q: What do you think about what’s going on in Venezuela?

    Trump: It’s being run by a dictator. And it’s very safe. It’s safer than many of our cities

    https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1820512030681370703

    A quick Google suggests that Caracas has a higher murder rate than any US city.
    I am shocked that Donald Trump would make such a mistake in order to claim the USA is in a much worse position than it is so he can benefit.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755

    OK, I've just rewatched Skyfall: it's pretty good, with some superb acting, particularly from Bérénice Marlohe. Maybe I misjudged it.

    Not sure how the BBC are going to treat the Huw Edwards cameo in it though.

    For some reason the brocollis haven’t delivered two consecutive bangers in decades. I always loved Skyfall but thought it rather let down by the silly ret conning in Spectre, which was only ok. The last one by pattern should have been a banger and it had potential. But they dropped a bollock by editing out the killer virus to be killer nanobots, inexplicably underused the baddie and then delivered perhaps the worst movie ending in Hollywood history.

    I’m hoping for a bond prequel movie set in the tail end of WW2, leading into a slickly produced period recreation of the original content. Mad Men fashion, the cars, the music, proper Russian baddies. The modern stuff doesn’t work, the villains should be Chinese communists but the money men refuse to allow it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    MaxPB said:

    What's the likelihood of us finishing ahead of the French at these Olympics?

    We should do well in the velodrome and there's still maybe one or two golds in the athletics for us plus the odd one here or there. I think we could end at or near 22 golds. I'm not sure the French have got much left in the tank for athletics and their track cycling team isn't as strong as ours, the men's pursuit team finished in 5th in qualifying so they won't even figure for the gold medal matches and it's a fairly good barometer of overall team strength for medals on the track.

    What's annoying is that we've been on the wrong side of a bunch of 50/50 gold/silver medals losing golds for hundredths of seconds which is basically random chance at that point. If half of those had gone our way instead of the sort of fifth that we seem to have got we'd be another 3 or 4 gold medals up and we'd be looking at a properly banner games.
    France have just lost a squeaker in the 3 man basketball
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,858
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    There really is something sulphurous about Matt Goodwin.
    Incendiary views.
    Suspect opinion polls.
    Massive self-obsession.
    British public life would be so much better without him.


    https://x.com/montie/status/1820201530256990453

    This misses the mark. It may be too early to be pointing out that riots are the voice of the unheard, but there will, I suspect, be too many people who won't in this case find it convenient to remember the aphorism at any stage. First however there needs to be law and justice done on some terrible rioters. But Brixton (1981) ended up with Lord Scarman's report. Matt Goodwin will be one of the few making the point with a degree of rationality that law and justice (long prison for some) needs to be followed by consideration of why, as at Brixton, NI, Toxteth, Hackney etc, people rioted and in what sense it represents the unheard.
    Unheard demand for free Crocs and cosmetics perhaps:

    https://x.com/Hasselschmuck/status/1820465000449741233?t=QdnKXR_aHzws6OS-BsLJ5Q&s=19

    Hasn’t there been a lot of tourists rioting in many locations - this isn’t like the previous riots where the rioters were local people
    Yes it looks like there is a rentacrowd aspect. I don't think that alters the long term need, after severe justice is done, to think about why it happens and what it says about our politics, relationships and civilisation.

    It is hard for a liberal society to avoid scapegoating, but it is of the essence of a liberal society to try hard not to.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Q: What do you think about what’s going on in Venezuela?

    Trump: It’s being run by a dictator. And it’s very safe. It’s safer than many of our cities

    https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1820512030681370703

    A quick Google suggests that Caracas has a higher murder rate than any US city.
    You didn’t imagine Trump was actually telling the truth ?

    Trump has flip flopped on all manner of stuff - but the one consistent opinion is his admiration for dictators.
    He does it a lot, and there seems little upside to doing it (even if he also suffers no downsides for some reason). It's one thing to claim other world leaders love or fear him, or he gets on well with them because he's so great, but he often talks up how strong they are, how their people listen to them, it's really weird.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    Seeing Keely Hodgkinson run, I definitely need to get some of that baking soda....no that isn't implying she is on the naughty juice, she is big advocate for the baking soda stuff.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,443
    A lot of claims being made that immigrants aren't integrating. Hopefully this YouTube channel can help: https://youtu.be/LEugruqLje8
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Q: What do you think about what’s going on in Venezuela?

    Trump: It’s being run by a dictator. And it’s very safe. It’s safer than many of our cities

    https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1820512030681370703

    A quick Google suggests that Caracas has a higher murder rate than any US city.
    You didn’t imagine Trump was actually telling the truth ?

    Trump has flip flopped on all manner of stuff - but the one consistent opinion is his admiration for dictators.
    Obviously I didn't think he was right, but unlike Trump I do try to check things before I make a claim. I rarely make any similar type of statement without checking first.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,345
    edited August 5
    The reports out of Capitol Hill are that the Biden admin expects Iranian & associated mates efforts to start tonight or tomorrow.

    One of the more interesting elements is that the Iranians are definitely prepping for the Israeli response to reach their territory and by the looks of it be extensive in nature. Some comms in Iran appear to be disrupted but by who and why are unclear. Bear in mind too its well within the Israeli compass to preempt things and get their shot in first and they will if they can get some specifics.

    Is there the kind of choreography that happened a number of months back were everyone somewhat understood Iran was going to launch the world's slowest moving attack? I am not sure there is, but you kind of hope so.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,890
    ...

    OK, I've just rewatched Skyfall: it's pretty good, with some superb acting, particularly from Bérénice Marlohe. Maybe I misjudged it.

    Not sure how the BBC are going to treat the Huw Edwards cameo in it though.

    It's OK. ITV own the broadcast rights
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069
    Cookie said:

    Evening pb.
    It still feels odd to be holidaying in the Netherlands. This is one of Europe's most densely populated corners. Every scrap of land is used. There is little in the way of natural beauty. Travel about by car, and it feels like you are on the fringes of an endless new town. The functional is everywhere. You arrive at your destination straight off a string of dual carriageways packed with commuters homing from Rotterdam and Den Haag.
    And yet where the land is designated for loveliness and leisure, it is indeed lovely, and the opportunity for fun is endless.
    We have spent the evening at Wassenaar beach (which I think glories under the Dutch name of Wassenaar slag, though I may be misunderstanding.) It is by some measures the finest beach in Europe. Clean - oh so very clean - almost entirely free of stone and seaweed, and improbably warm - far warmer than Cornwall. We arrived at 8pm and were able to swim for 40 minutes without getting cold. It is the Netherlands in miniature: it doesn't have the natural beauty of Cornwall or the Hebrides or the Greek Islands, but it makes improbably good use of what it has.
    Also happy to report that despite the stereotype, every single Dutch person we have met has been friendly and charming.

    See: lovely.


  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    That stadium only looks to be 80% full for the France-Egypt semi-final, which seems a tad disappointing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,683
    moonshine said:

    OK, I've just rewatched Skyfall: it's pretty good, with some superb acting, particularly from Bérénice Marlohe. Maybe I misjudged it.

    Not sure how the BBC are going to treat the Huw Edwards cameo in it though.

    For some reason the brocollis haven’t delivered two consecutive bangers in decades. I always loved Skyfall but thought it rather let down by the silly ret conning in Spectre, which was only ok. The last one by pattern should have been a banger and it had potential. But they dropped a bollock by editing out the killer virus to be killer nanobots, inexplicably underused the baddie and then delivered perhaps the worst movie ending in Hollywood history.

    I’m hoping for a bond prequel movie set in the tail end of WW2, leading into a slickly produced period recreation of the original content. Mad Men fashion, the cars, the music, proper Russian baddies. The modern stuff doesn’t work, the villains should be Chinese communists but the money men refuse to allow it.
    No Time To Die is the only Bond film I have never watched more than once.

    It's like they spent 4 films fully rebooting the franchise, and then decided to burn the house down in the last.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,683
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the likelihood of us finishing ahead of the French at these Olympics?

    We should do well in the velodrome and there's still maybe one or two golds in the athletics for us plus the odd one here or there. I think we could end at or near 22 golds. I'm not sure the French have got much left in the tank for athletics and their track cycling team isn't as strong as ours, the men's pursuit team finished in 5th in qualifying so they won't even figure for the gold medal matches and it's a fairly good barometer of overall team strength for medals on the track.

    What's annoying is that we've been on the wrong side of a bunch of 50/50 gold/silver medals losing golds for hundredths of seconds which is basically random chance at that point. If half of those had gone our way instead of the sort of fifth that we seem to have got we'd be another 3 or 4 gold medals up and we'd be looking at a properly banner games.
    France have just lost a squeaker in the 3 man basketball
    Bercow has pulled out?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,114

    KnightOut said:

    Sandpit said:

    Picture of the day.

    No-one went home early, did they?


    Much better than staying up for Portillo. Nowhere near as late either.
    What event is Portillo competing in?
    Synchronised trainspotting!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,683
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Evening pb.
    It still feels odd to be holidaying in the Netherlands. This is one of Europe's most densely populated corners. Every scrap of land is used. There is little in the way of natural beauty. Travel about by car, and it feels like you are on the fringes of an endless new town. The functional is everywhere. You arrive at your destination straight off a string of dual carriageways packed with commuters homing from Rotterdam and Den Haag.
    And yet where the land is designated for loveliness and leisure, it is indeed lovely, and the opportunity for fun is endless.
    We have spent the evening at Wassenaar beach (which I think glories under the Dutch name of Wassenaar slag, though I may be misunderstanding.) It is by some measures the finest beach in Europe. Clean - oh so very clean - almost entirely free of stone and seaweed, and improbably warm - far warmer than Cornwall. We arrived at 8pm and were able to swim for 40 minutes without getting cold. It is the Netherlands in miniature: it doesn't have the natural beauty of Cornwall or the Hebrides or the Greek Islands, but it makes improbably good use of what it has.
    Also happy to report that despite the stereotype, every single Dutch person we have met has been friendly and charming.

    See: lovely.


    You need to race in to save Diana Rigg, to a Barry soundtrack.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,721
    edited August 5

    ...

    OK, I've just rewatched Skyfall: it's pretty good, with some superb acting, particularly from Bérénice Marlohe. Maybe I misjudged it.

    Not sure how the BBC are going to treat the Huw Edwards cameo in it though.

    It's OK. ITV own the broadcast rights
    Shame about it trashing Glen Etive. Used to be a lovely quiet place.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,114
    https://www.express.co.uk/showbiz/tv-radio/1932457/Sky-News-reporter-warned-stop-missiles-thrown-riots

    "Sky News reporter warned 'stop' as 'missiles' thrown close to cameras in Plymouth riot"
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,352
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Evening pb.
    It still feels odd to be holidaying in the Netherlands. This is one of Europe's most densely populated corners. Every scrap of land is used. There is little in the way of natural beauty. Travel about by car, and it feels like you are on the fringes of an endless new town. The functional is everywhere. You arrive at your destination straight off a string of dual carriageways packed with commuters homing from Rotterdam and Den Haag.
    And yet where the land is designated for loveliness and leisure, it is indeed lovely, and the opportunity for fun is endless.
    We have spent the evening at Wassenaar beach (which I think glories under the Dutch name of Wassenaar slag, though I may be misunderstanding.) It is by some measures the finest beach in Europe. Clean - oh so very clean - almost entirely free of stone and seaweed, and improbably warm - far warmer than Cornwall. We arrived at 8pm and were able to swim for 40 minutes without getting cold. It is the Netherlands in miniature: it doesn't have the natural beauty of Cornwall or the Hebrides or the Greek Islands, but it makes improbably good use of what it has.
    Also happy to report that despite the stereotype, every single Dutch person we have met has been friendly and charming.

    See: lovely.


    The dog for scale seems to have fallen headfirst from an aeroplane.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Why is the United States so poor at the 3x3 Basketball? Bronze in the women's, 7th place in the men's. Surely they should be among the best?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,040
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the likelihood of us finishing ahead of the French at these Olympics?

    We should do well in the velodrome and there's still maybe one or two golds in the athletics for us plus the odd one here or there. I think we could end at or near 22 golds. I'm not sure the French have got much left in the tank for athletics and their track cycling team isn't as strong as ours, the men's pursuit team finished in 5th in qualifying so they won't even figure for the gold medal matches and it's a fairly good barometer of overall team strength for medals on the track.

    What's annoying is that we've been on the wrong side of a bunch of 50/50 gold/silver medals losing golds for hundredths of seconds which is basically random chance at that point. If half of those had gone our way instead of the sort of fifth that we seem to have got we'd be another 3 or 4 gold medals up and we'd be looking at a properly banner games.
    France have just lost a squeaker in the 3 man basketball
    I think if we beat France at their home games it will be a bit embarrassing for them, in the run up to 2012 we almost doubled the budget for Olympic sports funding and we ramped up at Beijing pretty nicely (best European country except the Russians which was mostly due to doping) for a really great finish in London where we came 3rd and then that ran into Rio where we came 2nd ahead of China.

    France should really be looking to get a 3rd place finish behind China and the US but I think it will be us or Japan.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,472
    edited August 5
    Week on from Southport.
    DM_Andy said:

    Why is the United States so poor at the 3x3 Basketball? Bronze in the women's, 7th place in the men's. Surely they should be among the best?

    Not really. EuroBasket is really improving. And there is simply too much money to be made in the US from regular balling.
    The US are minor College/amateur. Europeans are the three who didn't quite make the regular squad.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507

    https://www.express.co.uk/showbiz/tv-radio/1932457/Sky-News-reporter-warned-stop-missiles-thrown-riots

    "Sky News reporter warned 'stop' as 'missiles' thrown close to cameras in Plymouth riot"

    Some bad scenes coming out of Birmingham this evening.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122
    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    Q: What do you think about what’s going on in Venezuela?

    Trump: It’s being run by a dictator. And it’s very safe. It’s safer than many of our cities

    https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1820512030681370703

    A quick Google suggests that Caracas has a higher murder rate than any US city.
    You didn’t imagine Trump was actually telling the truth ?

    Trump has flip flopped on all manner of stuff - but the one consistent opinion is his admiration for dictators.
    Trump has promised voters that once he is voted back, they won't have to vote ever again...

    https://x.com/viktorikolibri/status/1817507058343714890?t=Q6YqZuOt6LN-J6a18M0icQ&s=19
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited August 5
    dixiedean said:

    Week on from Southport.

    DM_Andy said:

    Why is the United States so poor at the 3x3 Basketball? Bronze in the women's, 7th place in the men's. Surely they should be among the best?

    Not really. EuroBasket is really improving. And there is simply too much money to be made in the US from regular balling.
    Also if I remember correctly NBA teams are very funny about releasing their players (they are under no obligation to do so), same for baseball and ice-hockey (they struggle at those sports at international events as well). Even the 5x5 team isn't the All-Star team, in fact in previous Olympics they took several players who weren't even pros to make up the numbers.

    Looking at 3x3 US have, they are aren't pros.
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    DM_Andy said:

    Why is the United States so poor at the 3x3 Basketball? Bronze in the women's, 7th place in the men's. Surely they should be among the best?

    No smack talking in the Olympics. Your Momma.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,472
    edited August 5

    dixiedean said:

    Week on from Southport.

    DM_Andy said:

    Why is the United States so poor at the 3x3 Basketball? Bronze in the women's, 7th place in the men's. Surely they should be among the best?

    Not really. EuroBasket is really improving. And there is simply too much money to be made in the US from regular balling.
    Also if I remember correctly NBA teams are very funny about releasing their players (they are under no obligation to do so), same for baseball and ice-hockey (they struggle at those sports at international events as well). Even the 5x5 team isn't the All-Stars, in fact in previous Olympics they took several players who weren't even pros to make up the numbers.
    Yeah. See my edit above.
    Olympic baseball could be great. But they won't comply to WADA.
    2 of the first three NBA draft picks were French. EuroBasket is arguably stronger than College. Elite not depth.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,175
    Jenna Ellis has given a proffer and has agreed to plead guilty and cooperate with the prosecution against her co-defendants in the AZ fake elector case, which is bad news for Rudy Giuliani & Mark Meadows.
    https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1820552961820639336
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited August 5
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Week on from Southport.

    DM_Andy said:

    Why is the United States so poor at the 3x3 Basketball? Bronze in the women's, 7th place in the men's. Surely they should be among the best?

    Not really. EuroBasket is really improving. And there is simply too much money to be made in the US from regular balling.
    Also if I remember correctly NBA teams are very funny about releasing their players (they are under no obligation to do so), same for baseball and ice-hockey (they struggle at those sports at international events as well). Even the 5x5 team isn't the All-Stars, in fact in previous Olympics they took several players who weren't even pros to make up the numbers.
    Yeah. See my edit above.
    Olympic baseball could be great. But they won't comply to WADA.
    You aren't suggesting that US sports suffer from the partaking in excessive amount of the old baking sodas....those NFL players have never used a steroid in their lives.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,271

    https://www.express.co.uk/showbiz/tv-radio/1932457/Sky-News-reporter-warned-stop-missiles-thrown-riots

    "Sky News reporter warned 'stop' as 'missiles' thrown close to cameras in Plymouth riot"

    Some bad scenes coming out of Birmingham this evening.
    The BBC report was quite opaque about it:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cw5yyynpwnzt

    There have been some disturbances within the past hour-and-a-half in Birmingham, after hundreds of people gathered in the Bordesley Green area of the city following false reports a march was planned in the area.

    Several vehicles and a pub have been attacked by a group of youths, who broke away from the main demonstration and were wearing masks and carrying weapons.

    West Midlands police have said there have been at least three cases of criminal damage, and one offence where someone was seen carrying an offensive weapon.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,755

    https://www.express.co.uk/showbiz/tv-radio/1932457/Sky-News-reporter-warned-stop-missiles-thrown-riots

    "Sky News reporter warned 'stop' as 'missiles' thrown close to cameras in Plymouth riot"

    Some bad scenes coming out of Birmingham this evening.
    Indeed. But I assume it is verboten to discuss it, or Starmer’s thought police will be knocking on your door by morning.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,723

    OK, I've just rewatched Skyfall: it's pretty good, with some superb acting, particularly from Bérénice Marlohe. Maybe I misjudged it.

    Not sure how the BBC are going to treat the Huw Edwards cameo in it though.

    The Bonds are always on ITV aren't they?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,117
    edited August 5
    Starmer is going to undertake a total root and branch reform of Ofcom very shortly I predict.

    Totally unfit for purpose in current crisis.

  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976

    Leon said:

    One of the problems with Israel - which I have visited, many times - is that you soon realise many of them really do have these quite Nazi/South African dispositions towards the Palestinians

    They think the Arabs are a lowlier caste, poisoned with anti Semitism, inbred, violent and stupid

    So then of course your liberal western sympathies shift to the Palestinians. And they are charming and hospitable people on the West Bank. And you reassure them of your sympathy

    And then, once reassured; they say “well of course we want to drive all the Jews into the sea. Let them be gone. This is our land”

    And then, PB, what exactly do you do? Who do you support? My atavistic sense is: let them fight it out

    This is the problem when you get down to it: it is Alien v Predator.
    The west should not get involved at all. Stop arming Isreal.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 790
    US polling update.

    There have been a number of polls announced over and following the weekend. Harris is up with YouGov, TIPP and Morning Consult. With the latter she has gone from +1 (Jul 30-Aug 1) to +4 (Aug 2-4). 538 now has Harris leading by between 1 and 5 points in all the last ten published polls. On average, 538 gives her a 1.9% lead, on a steady upward climb.

    And Real Clear Politics? They've managed to add the latest few... but still, somehow, the Harris +5 from RMG which was released on Friday hasn't made it in to their tables. Funny that. Even RCP can only find two polls with Trump ahead, from the comedy act that is Rasmussen Reports.

    Lessons:
    1. Harris is leading, and the lead is improving (figures can go down as well as up, of course)
    2. It's all to play for.
    3. Never ever use RCP figures.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited August 5
    On topic here's Harris's problem and opportunity:


  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 561
    On the subject of the US election, I just had a look at the Betfair markets for individual states to see what the electoral college would produce if the favourite won each state.
    Well the markets have Trump winning Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, all the others remaining as they were. That would have given Harris 273 to 265. But they have changed the votes each state gets to reflect th census so it becomes 270 to 268. And this assumes the Nebraska 2nd District (Omaha), which goes its own way, stays with Harris, which is very uncertain as it has been very marginal in recent elections. If it goes to Trump it is 269-269 and that means he wins I think.
    We need the Wizard to return home do his magic, I am sure the Sage will help him.
  • KnightOutKnightOut Posts: 145
    Nunu5 said:

    Leon said:

    One of the problems with Israel - which I have visited, many times - is that you soon realise many of them really do have these quite Nazi/South African dispositions towards the Palestinians

    They think the Arabs are a lowlier caste, poisoned with anti Semitism, inbred, violent and stupid

    So then of course your liberal western sympathies shift to the Palestinians. And they are charming and hospitable people on the West Bank. And you reassure them of your sympathy

    And then, once reassured; they say “well of course we want to drive all the Jews into the sea. Let them be gone. This is our land”

    And then, PB, what exactly do you do? Who do you support? My atavistic sense is: let them fight it out

    This is the problem when you get down to it: it is Alien v Predator.
    The west should not get involved at all. Stop arming Isreal.

    The thing is, there is so much anti-Israel/pro-Palestine 'noise' around that we probably have to arm Israel a little bit just to appear balanced overall on the international stage.

    It's like that South Park episode where they observe that the great thing about the USA is being able to go to war and simultaneously protest the act of going to war.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,117

    Darshna Soni
    @darshnasoni
    ·
    34m
    “We’ve come to apologise to everyone drinking here, what’s happening doesn’t represent us”
    We’re at the Clumsy Swan in Birmingham, a group of young Asians heard the EDL were inside & came to confront them. Older guys in the community calmed things down and sent them home.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,117
    The campaign to be Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate is reaching its final hours.

    She is expected to make her decision by Tuesday morning at the latest, as she plans to rally with her running mate in Philadelphia later that day.

    NY Times
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507

    This. 100x this.

    Jess Phillips
    @jessphillips
    ·
    Aug 4
    So much of the aggression on our streets these days is done in full glare of cameras on purpose entirely because it is content creation.

    Clock stopped and all that....she is bang on here.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,918
    edited August 5

    Congratulations to KH btw. On SPOTY, doesn’t always seem to matter, but I’d note she does actually seem to have a personality.

    I read that as Kamala Harris at first and was very confused!
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,987

    This. 100x this.

    Jess Phillips
    @jessphillips
    ·
    Aug 4
    So much of the aggression on our streets these days is done in full glare of cameras on purpose entirely because it is content creation.

    You couldn't link to the tweet (I assume it was a tweet), could you? For we non-users.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,987

    Starmer is going to undertake a total root and branch reform of Ofcom very shortly I predict.

    Totally unfit for purpose in current crisis.

    Lucky for him the other regulators are all tip-top.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    Andrea Jenkyn on Newsnight. Worth a watch. She's dreadful!
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    edited August 5

    This. 100x this.

    Jess Phillips
    @jessphillips
    ·
    Aug 4
    So much of the aggression on our streets these days is done in full glare of cameras on purpose entirely because it is content creation.

    Clock stopped and all that....she is bang on here.
    Yes the first protestors were mostly far-right EDL types, but over the weekend it has mainly seemed to be younger opportunist berks who think a bit of rioting and looting might be a laugh. A bit like with the London Riots in 2011 the initial issue soon faded away and people were mainly in it for the vandalism and looting.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,472
    Just stay off Twitter. Or X. Or whatever it calls itself.
    It's not compulsory.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    This. 100x this.

    Jess Phillips
    @jessphillips
    ·
    Aug 4
    So much of the aggression on our streets these days is done in full glare of cameras on purpose entirely because it is content creation.

    I like the aggression being in full view of cameras, it makes it so much easier to nick them and keep them in prison for a long time.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,114
    More in Plymouth:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/plymouth-riots-southport-protesters-police-devon-cornwall-b1174872.html

    "Several police officers injured as 'sustained violence' breaks out in Plymouth"
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,987
    moonshine said:

    https://www.express.co.uk/showbiz/tv-radio/1932457/Sky-News-reporter-warned-stop-missiles-thrown-riots

    "Sky News reporter warned 'stop' as 'missiles' thrown close to cameras in Plymouth riot"

    Some bad scenes coming out of Birmingham this evening.
    Indeed. But I assume it is verboten to discuss it, or Starmer’s thought police will be knocking on your door by morning.
    Say what you like about this new government, but they've set up the thought police pretty damn sharpish. A bit of efficiency at last!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,117
    Roger said:

    Andrea Jenkyn on Newsnight. Worth a watch. She's dreadful!

    She complains that people in north can't get housing.

    Her party spent 14 years blocking any changes that would allow housebuilding.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,987
    dixiedean said:

    Just stay off Twitter. Or X. Or whatever it calls itself.
    It's not compulsory.

    It does seem compulsory, if you do use it, to quote-tweet it but not link to it. I always picture the 1950s monkey experiments where they made them batter little keys until a light went on and they got a food pellet.


  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    Roger said:

    Andrea Jenkyn on Newsnight. Worth a watch. She's dreadful!

    She complains that people in north can't get housing.

    Her party spent 14 years blocking any changes that would allow housebuilding.
    She’s a loathsome far right apologist . And I’m sick of reading desperate attempts by some to try and excuse the behavior of the vermin causing all this destruction .
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,040

    Roger said:

    Andrea Jenkyn on Newsnight. Worth a watch. She's dreadful!

    She complains that people in north can't get housing.

    Her party spent 14 years blocking any changes that would allow housebuilding.
    It was also the Tories that oversaw 1.5m net migration in 2022-2023, just two years. If there's anything that's behind the sentiment it's this.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,683
    Nunu5 said:

    Leon said:

    One of the problems with Israel - which I have visited, many times - is that you soon realise many of them really do have these quite Nazi/South African dispositions towards the Palestinians

    They think the Arabs are a lowlier caste, poisoned with anti Semitism, inbred, violent and stupid

    So then of course your liberal western sympathies shift to the Palestinians. And they are charming and hospitable people on the West Bank. And you reassure them of your sympathy

    And then, once reassured; they say “well of course we want to drive all the Jews into the sea. Let them be gone. This is our land”

    And then, PB, what exactly do you do? Who do you support? My atavistic sense is: let them fight it out

    This is the problem when you get down to it: it is Alien v Predator.
    The west should not get involved at all. Stop arming Isreal.
    Trouble is that Israel is almost certainly more liberal and friendly to the West than any other state that might conceivably replace it.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,318
    Sandpit said:

    Picture of the day.

    No-one went home early, did they?


    Just noticed the pole. For one awful moment I thought it was the high jump.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,111
    An interesting aspect is Trump falling behind Harris in the polls means he may not be able to afford not to debate Harris like he could if he was safely in the lead.

    And as Harris' lead grows, which I expect it will going into VP pick and convention, the more Trump needs to debate her to put her in her place..

    Which I think will only help Harris further as we get a new contrast in the 'most senile old man in the Presidential debate' competition.
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976

    Nunu5 said:

    Leon said:

    One of the problems with Israel - which I have visited, many times - is that you soon realise many of them really do have these quite Nazi/South African dispositions towards the Palestinians

    They think the Arabs are a lowlier caste, poisoned with anti Semitism, inbred, violent and stupid

    So then of course your liberal western sympathies shift to the Palestinians. And they are charming and hospitable people on the West Bank. And you reassure them of your sympathy

    And then, once reassured; they say “well of course we want to drive all the Jews into the sea. Let them be gone. This is our land”

    And then, PB, what exactly do you do? Who do you support? My atavistic sense is: let them fight it out

    This is the problem when you get down to it: it is Alien v Predator.
    The west should not get involved at all. Stop arming Isreal.
    Trouble is that Israel is almost certainly more liberal and friendly to the West than any other state that might conceivably replace it.
    They can take care of themselves
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945

    There really is something sulphurous about Matt Goodwin.
    Incendiary views.
    Suspect opinion polls.
    Massive self-obsession.
    British public life would be so much better without him.


    https://x.com/montie/status/1820201530256990453

    I think Tim Montgomerie is wrong about Goodwin.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,129
    edited August 5

    Starmer is going to undertake a total root and branch reform of Ofcom very shortly I predict.

    Totally unfit for purpose in current crisis.

    He's not a root and brand reform man, especially when it comes to his beloved public sector.

    He's a technocrat. I've worked in the quangocracy, I know the type. They think a bit of tweaking with governmental structures, getting people of goodwill (defined as those who already agree with him obviously) around a table and a policy announcement or two can solve deep-rooted and complex problems.

    He'll make some noises, set up a commission, issue a green paper or six and maybe shuffle some staff around, but it'll be basically the same organisation staffed by the same mediocrities in five years' time as it is now.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Walz and Shapiro nearly equal odds, everybody else has vanished.
    https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-vp-nominee?tid=1722896910074
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited August 5
    Are the opinion pollsters suddenly reluctant to carry out a voting intention polls?

    It's been over a month since the general election and we've had several polls charting the SKS's personal ratings but only one voting intention poll.

    What's going on?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    GIN1138 said:

    Are the opinion pollsters suddenly reluctant to carry out a voting intention polls?

    It's been over a month since the general election and we've had several polls charting the SKS's personal ratings but only one voting intention poll.

    What's going on?

    Costs money.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,318
    Fishing said:

    Starmer is going to undertake a total root and branch reform of Ofcom very shortly I predict.

    Totally unfit for purpose in current crisis.

    He's not a root and brand reform man, especially when it comes to his beloved public sector.

    He's a technocrat. I've worked in the quangocracy, I know the type. They think a bit of tweaking with governmental structures, getting people of goodwill (defined as those who already agree with him obviously) around a table and a policy announcement or two can solve deep-rooted and complex problems.

    He'll make some noises, set up a commission, issue a green paper or six and maybe shuffle some staff around, but it'll be basically the same organisation staffed by the same mediocrities in five years' time as it is now.
    In which case Ofcom will be a beacon of stability. On current showing the rest of the world will have gone to hell in a handcart long before five years are up.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Does Donald Trump's most recent admiration for neo-Commie dictator AND fellow election denier Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, eliminate the slightest scintilla of doubt, that DJT has his fat head totally up the fundament of neo-Commie dictator Vladimir Putin?

    Hell YES!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    Andy_JS said:

    There really is something sulphurous about Matt Goodwin.
    Incendiary views.
    Suspect opinion polls.
    Massive self-obsession.
    British public life would be so much better without him.


    https://x.com/montie/status/1820201530256990453

    I think Tim Montgomerie is wrong about Goodwin.
    I heard him on the radio ....'Any Questions' I think and I thought he was dreadful. Admitedly i'm not a fan of right wing Faragists but his manner was grating. Arrogant without any discernable personality
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    GIN1138 said:

    Are the opinion pollsters suddenly reluctant to carry out a voting intention polls?

    It's been over a month since the general election and we've had several polls charting the SKS's personal ratings but only one voting intention poll.

    What's going on?

    Maybe Goodwin will commission one.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    GIN1138 said:

    Are the opinion pollsters suddenly reluctant to carry out a voting intention polls?

    It's been over a month since the general election and we've had several polls charting the SKS's personal ratings but only one voting intention poll.

    What's going on?

    Its normal. No one is interested in voting intentions less than a month after a GE and probably 4 yars at least before the next one. As Francis points out it costs a substantial amount of money and really tells us nothing. The individual popularity polling is a lot more interesting and probably more informative.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376

    GIN1138 said:

    Are the opinion pollsters suddenly reluctant to carry out a voting intention polls?

    It's been over a month since the general election and we've had several polls charting the SKS's personal ratings but only one voting intention poll.

    What's going on?

    Costs money.
    But since the election we've had seven polls for leadership ratings but only one for voting intention?

    Seems odd?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Crossover, Walz 62%
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    edited August 5
    GIN1138 said:

    Are the opinion pollsters suddenly reluctant to carry out a voting intention polls?

    It's been over a month since the general election and we've had several polls charting the SKS's personal ratings but only one voting intention poll.

    What's going on?

    I'm no expert, but from my understanding of it;

    The election came. The election went. Political polling doesn't make money. They do it as a mostly loss-leading marketing exercise in the run up to elections in the hope the exposure will help them flog their market intelligence, or whatever it is is their main business, to companies looking to enter new markets or whatever.

    In short, nobody is paying for political opinion polls, right now, so they don't happen.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,837
    Fishing said:

    Starmer is going to undertake a total root and branch reform of Ofcom very shortly I predict.

    Totally unfit for purpose in current crisis.

    He's not a root and brand reform man, especially when it comes to his beloved public sector.

    He's a technocrat. I've worked in the quangocracy, I know the type. They think a bit of tweaking with governmental structures, getting people of goodwill (defined as those who already agree with him obviously) around a table and a policy announcement or two can solve deep-rooted and complex problems.

    He'll make some noises, set up a commission, issue a green paper or six and maybe shuffle some staff around, but it'll be basically the same organisation staffed by the same mediocrities in five years' time as it is now.
    Keir Merkel?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    edited August 5

    More in Plymouth:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/plymouth-riots-southport-protesters-police-devon-cornwall-b1174872.html

    "Several police officers injured as 'sustained violence' breaks out in Plymouth"

    Hang them from tower Bridge failing that a mug shots on the 10PM News like they did with the ones today from Sunderland. I wonder if any of them had a job? They won't now!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,837
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Are the opinion pollsters suddenly reluctant to carry out a voting intention polls?

    It's been over a month since the general election and we've had several polls charting the SKS's personal ratings but only one voting intention poll.

    What's going on?

    Costs money.
    But since the election we've had seven polls for leadership ratings but only one for voting intention?

    Seems odd?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
    One of them acknowedged they are still revising their model - a tweet posted here earlier which I cannot now find.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited August 5

    GIN1138 said:

    Are the opinion pollsters suddenly reluctant to carry out a voting intention polls?

    It's been over a month since the general election and we've had several polls charting the SKS's personal ratings but only one voting intention poll.

    What's going on?

    Its normal. No one is interested in voting intentions less than a month after a GE and probably 4 yars at least before the next one. As Francis points out it costs a substantial amount of money and really tells us nothing. The individual popularity polling is a lot more interesting and probably more informative.
    I mean if you're Opinium, and you're doing on leadership rating poll (which incidentally finds SKS personal approval rating has dropped from +18 to +3 in less than a fortnight) wouldn't you conduct a voting intention poll while you're at it?

    Just seems a bit strange but maybe we'll get a VI soon?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,271

    Does Donald Trump's most recent admiration for neo-Commie dictator AND fellow election denier Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, eliminate the slightest scintilla of doubt, that DJT has his fat head totally up the fundament of neo-Commie dictator Vladimir Putin?

    Hell YES!

    What a strange comment. Putin a neo-Commie?
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Are the opinion pollsters suddenly reluctant to carry out a voting intention polls?

    It's been over a month since the general election and we've had several polls charting the SKS's personal ratings but only one voting intention poll.

    What's going on?

    Its normal. No one is interested in voting intentions less than a month after a GE and probably 4 yars at least before the next one. As Francis points out it costs a substantial amount of money and really tells us nothing. The individual popularity polling is a lot more interesting and probably more informative.
    I mean if you're Opinium, and you're doing on leadership rating poll (which incidentally finds SKS personal approval rating has dropped from +18 to +3 in less than a fortnight) wouldn't you conduct a voting intention poll while you're at it?

    Just seems a bit strange but maybe we'll get a VI soon>
    Many of the pollsters are not doing that since they got the labour lead so wrong
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Nunu5 said:
    "I have now left to go to Chipotle and I have no other updates"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    "Google's online search monopoly is illegal, US judge rules"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0k44x6mge3o
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 976
    Very sad to see Muslims in Birmingham purposely going to a pub and attacking a lone white man.
    Looking to beat up a white person.

    Social media has caused a frenzy and I think we need drastic action over it in the next few days. Rumours are leading to violence and revenge violence
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited August 5
    Nunu5 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Are the opinion pollsters suddenly reluctant to carry out a voting intention polls?

    It's been over a month since the general election and we've had several polls charting the SKS's personal ratings but only one voting intention poll.

    What's going on?

    Its normal. No one is interested in voting intentions less than a month after a GE and probably 4 yars at least before the next one. As Francis points out it costs a substantial amount of money and really tells us nothing. The individual popularity polling is a lot more interesting and probably more informative.
    I mean if you're Opinium, and you're doing on leadership rating poll (which incidentally finds SKS personal approval rating has dropped from +18 to +3 in less than a fortnight) wouldn't you conduct a voting intention poll while you're at it?

    Just seems a bit strange but maybe we'll get a VI soon>
    Many of the pollsters are not doing that since they got the labour lead so wrong
    Election 2024 was a bit a polling shambles for sure (masked by Labour still getting a landslide regardless) but that's no excuse for just giving up lol!

    It's the age old problem of opinion pollsters over-stating Labour within their sample but polls are still interesting snap shots anyway, right?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,873
    edited August 5

    Crossover, Walz 62%

    Minnesota has voted for every Democratic candidate since 1976. If Harris is stupid enough to pick Walz over Shapiro, governor of PA ie the key swing state this election, then Trump has just been given a massive get out of jail card after he picked Vance as his VP pick
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Reflippened, Shapiro leading now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,873

    On topic here's Harris's problem and opportunity:


    So even more US voters think Harris is very liberal than think Trump very conservative
This discussion has been closed.