I wonder if Cameron creating A lists based on anatomical characteristics and foisting them on the membership is wholly unconnected with the dearth of talent in the Parliamentary Tory Party?
The A-list was a list of sycophants, celebrities and proto-Wokery. Because Osborne/Cameron, and mainly the former, were trying to emulate Blair.
Adam Rickitt was a near miss. I remember an awful lot of fuss being made about him at the time. He totally denounced the party by 2014.
Adam R could really have put the Tat back into Tatton, he now runs quite a good gin bar in Knutsford with his wife
He was picked because he was young, gay, blonde and from Coronation Street.
That was basically it.
He isn't gay, he is married. For Tatton he would probably have been a good fit
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
That's a very interesting poll. I was surprised that only 3% of 2019 Labour voters switched to Reform. I thought Reform were supposed to be taking significant numbers of voters from both main parties.
I wonder if Cameron creating A lists based on anatomical characteristics and foisting them on the membership is wholly unconnected with the dearth of talent in the Parliamentary Tory Party?
The A-list was a list of sycophants, celebrities and proto-Wokery. Because Osborne/Cameron, and mainly the former, were trying to emulate Blair.
Adam Rickitt was a near miss. I remember an awful lot of fuss being made about him at the time. He totally denounced the party by 2014.
Adam R could really have put the Tat back into Tatton, he now runs quite a good gin bar in Knutsford with his wife
He was picked because he was young, gay, blonde and from Coronation Street.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
That's a very interesting poll. I was surprised that only 3% of 2019 Labour voters switched to Reform. I thought Reform were supposed to be taking significant numbers of voters from both main parties.
I wonder if Cameron creating A lists based on anatomical characteristics and foisting them on the membership is wholly unconnected with the dearth of talent in the Parliamentary Tory Party?
The A-list was a list of sycophants, celebrities and proto-Wokery. Because Osborne/Cameron, and mainly the former, were trying to emulate Blair.
Adam Rickitt was a near miss. I remember an awful lot of fuss being made about him at the time. He totally denounced the party by 2014.
Adam R could really have put the Tat back into Tatton, he now runs quite a good gin bar in Knutsford with his wife
He was picked because he was young, gay, blonde and from Coronation Street.
That was basically it.
He isn't gay, he is married
Are you really that much behind the times?
I think HYUFD is just countering that someone said AR was gay when he’s actually married to a woman (yes it doesn’t always mean someone isn’t, Barrymore for example) and so being factually correct on a public forum is probably the way to go than throwing out a claim that isn’t true.
I wonder if Cameron creating A lists based on anatomical characteristics and foisting them on the membership is wholly unconnected with the dearth of talent in the Parliamentary Tory Party?
The A-list was a list of sycophants, celebrities and proto-Wokery. Because Osborne/Cameron, and mainly the former, were trying to emulate Blair.
Adam Rickitt was a near miss. I remember an awful lot of fuss being made about him at the time. He totally denounced the party by 2014.
Adam R could really have put the Tat back into Tatton, he now runs quite a good gin bar in Knutsford with his wife
He was picked because he was young, gay, blonde and from Coronation Street.
That was basically it.
He isn't gay, he is married
Are you really that much behind the times?
They're in opposition now, they can say wot they really think.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
That's a very interesting poll. I was surprised that only 3% of 2019 Labour voters switched to Reform. I thought Reform were supposed to be taking significant numbers of voters from both main parties.
More 2019 Labour voters went Green, 10%
Yes and that makes sense - the Green party has become the Green Socialist Party now so they have siphoned off Labour voters who think Starmer is too centrist. Many of those will have felt able to do so because the Tories were clearly toast.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Even on that poll, its 25% plays 22%, which is hardly decisive. And your friend Lord A has the balance tilted marginally the other way. The best we can say is that the number of former Tories splitting right and splitting left appear to have been pretty similar.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Even on that poll, its 25% plays 22%, which is hardly decisive. And your friend Lord A has the balance tilted marginally the other way. The best we can say is that the number of former Tories splitting right and splitting left appear to have been pretty similar.
That was the extraordinary achievement of the 2019 Conservative government: they managed to lose both their Left and Right wings.
It will, I suspect, be easier to win back the Right, and to stage some sort of recovery. But that will probably not be sufficient in itself to return the party to government. And, of course, it also has the issue of ensuring tactical voting continues.
Why? If it is what he believes in he would be a hypocrite to do otherwise. The SDLP leader did likewise. I'm sure there were others who did the same.
Nobody is holding a gun to their head. Either take the oath or don't. Either mean it or don't. No "I do this under protest" fuckwittery.
Taking the oath to the Crown isn't a piece of flummery, it's a vital part of the system of Government. If he doesn't want to do it he should walk out the door and give his job to somebody else. It means something, the House of Commons isn't just a nice place to sit when it rains.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Even on that poll, its 25% plays 22%, which is hardly decisive. And your friend Lord A has the balance tilted marginally the other way. The best we can say is that the number of former Tories splitting right and splitting left appear to have been pretty similar.
Plus the other 2%, who will mostly be Scottish and Welsh nationalists (please don’t tell me a Tory would never have the nationalists as next preference!), and after that various left-leaning indies.
As I said, stand back and broadly the same number of former Tories defected left and right.
There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked. I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
It is beyond stupid.
The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.
The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.
Emerson: President Biden: 46% Trump 43% Biden, 11% undecided Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/
You keep quoting this stuff and it is utterly meaningless. It is based on a theoretical situation not reality. If someone takes over from Biden then those percentages will change dramatically.
Currently if Biden is the candidate in November then Trump will win. We all know that. Just some people are too set in their ways to admit it.
Kamala is far closer to a Hillary Clinton than a Barack Obama.
Swing states would hate her.
Far closer?
Well they are both women, there's that. But Kamala and Barack are both brown. All three are experienced and bright. Kamala isn't as articulate as Barak but she is more likeable than Hillary.
Hillary would have won the rust states is she wasn't so complacent. Kamala won't be complacent.
I don't see why swing states would hate her. Any evidence?
I don't particularly get the Kamala hate, apart from the obvious, but she is next in line.
I wonder if Cameron creating A lists based on anatomical characteristics and foisting them on the membership is wholly unconnected with the dearth of talent in the Parliamentary Tory Party?
The A-list was a list of sycophants, celebrities and proto-Wokery. Because Osborne/Cameron, and mainly the former, were trying to emulate Blair.
Adam Rickitt was a near miss. I remember an awful lot of fuss being made about him at the time. He totally denounced the party by 2014.
Adam R could really have put the Tat back into Tatton, he now runs quite a good gin bar in Knutsford with his wife
He was picked because he was young, gay, blonde and from Coronation Street.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Even on that poll, its 25% plays 22%, which is hardly decisive. And your friend Lord A has the balance tilted marginally the other way. The best we can say is that the number of former Tories splitting right and splitting left appear to have been pretty similar.
Plus the other 2%, who will mostly be Scottish and Welsh nationalists (please don’t tell me a Tory would never have the nationalists as next preference!), and after that various left-leaning indies.
As I said, stand back and broadly the same number of former Tories defected left and right.
The Tories first task is to get back their rightwing from defectors to Reform. If they do they get to 30-35%, then they can pick up any defectors to Labour and the LDs and other minor parties if Labour increases taxes and economic growth declines and immigration continues to rise.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Even on that poll, its 25% plays 22%, which is hardly decisive. And your friend Lord A has the balance tilted marginally the other way. The best we can say is that the number of former Tories splitting right and splitting left appear to have been pretty similar.
That was the extraordinary achievement of the 2019 Conservative government: they managed to lose both their Left and Right wings.
It will, I suspect, be easier to win back the Right, and to stage some sort of recovery. But that will probably not be sufficient in itself to return the party to government. And, of course, it also has the issue of ensuring tactical voting continues.
And in most seats, with stable boundaries and after the big swings last week, the tactical position is much clearer now.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Even on that poll, its 25% plays 22%, which is hardly decisive. And your friend Lord A has the balance tilted marginally the other way. The best we can say is that the number of former Tories splitting right and splitting left appear to have been pretty similar.
Plus the other 2%, who will mostly be Scottish and Welsh nationalists (please don’t tell me a Tory would never have the nationalists as next preference!), and after that various left-leaning indies.
As I said, stand back and broadly the same number of former Tories defected left and right.
The Tories first task is to get back their rightwing from defectors to Reform. If they do they get to 30-35%, then they can pick up any defectors to Labour and the LDs and other minor parties if Labour increases taxes and economic growth declines and immigration continues to rise.
Why? If it is what he believes in he would be a hypocrite to do otherwise. The SDLP leader did likewise. I'm sure there were others who did the same.
Because it's hugely twattish. Everyone swears an oath to the state or head of state. If you want to change the system you make the argument elsewhere. Man's a preening narcissist.
It'd be like Rishi Sunak saying, before he read at the King's coronation, that whilst he's about to read out something from the Bible he doesn't agree with it because he's a Hindu.
Difference surely being that Sunak could have declined to read at the King's coronation and still keep his job; Lewis had no such option.
You'd always have to swear allegiance to the State. And you could object on the ground there shouldn't be states, or not that state.
All the debate about whether the Tories should go right to get reform votes or centre-leftish to get lablibgreen votes are moot.
Tories lost because on every policy they failed. From immigration to NHS to public debt and tax and spend. So they lost votes in all directions. Unless the public are convinced they are competent once again then they will not be in a position to gain enough votes back from anyone. They public have to trust they will do better on immigration and other policies not just promise "lower immigration and better services".
Why? If it is what he believes in he would be a hypocrite to do otherwise. The SDLP leader did likewise. I'm sure there were others who did the same.
Nobody is holding a gun to their head. Either take the oath or don't. Either mean it or don't. No "I do this under protest" fuckwittery.
Taking the oath to the Crown isn't a piece of flummery, it's a vital part of the system of Government. If he doesn't want to do it he should walk out the door and give his job to somebody else. It means something, the House of Commons isn't just a nice place to sit when it rains.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Even on that poll, its 25% plays 22%, which is hardly decisive. And your friend Lord A has the balance tilted marginally the other way. The best we can say is that the number of former Tories splitting right and splitting left appear to have been pretty similar.
Plus the other 2%, who will mostly be Scottish and Welsh nationalists (please don’t tell me a Tory would never have the nationalists as next preference!), and after that various left-leaning indies.
As I said, stand back and broadly the same number of former Tories defected left and right.
The Tories first task is to get back their rightwing from defectors to Reform. If they do they get to 30-35%, then they can pick up any defectors to Labour and the LDs and other minor parties if Labour increases taxes and economic growth declines and immigration continues to rise.
You make it sound so easy.
Moving to the centre ground is not what ultimately gets opposition parties into government, it is the state of the economy largely plus issues of sleaze in government. It helps a fraction with swing voters but that is it.
It was Black Wednesday which lost the Tories the 1997 GE, Labour were well ahead in the polls even when Blair took over.
It was the 2008 crash and the IHT cut promise that won the Tories most seats in 2010, Brown Labour actually were ahead of 'centrist' Cameron's Tories for most of summer 2007 in the polls.
Equally it was partygate and the Truss budget and surging interest rates and mortgage costs that gave Starmer his big poll lead over the Tories and landslide win, despite Starmer being the 'centrist' Labour candidate in 2020 Boris still led Starmer Labour comfortably in 2021 polls
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Even on that poll, its 25% plays 22%, which is hardly decisive. And your friend Lord A has the balance tilted marginally the other way. The best we can say is that the number of former Tories splitting right and splitting left appear to have been pretty similar.
Plus the other 2%, who will mostly be Scottish and Welsh nationalists (please don’t tell me a Tory would never have the nationalists as next preference!), and after that various left-leaning indies.
As I said, stand back and broadly the same number of former Tories defected left and right.
The Tories first task is to get back their rightwing from defectors to Reform. If they do they get to 30-35%, then they can pick up any defectors to Labour and the LDs and other minor parties if Labour increases taxes and economic growth declines and immigration continues to rise.
I don't think you're wrong. The Conservatives need to get Reform voters before they do anything else. Far too early to move to the centre just yet, perhaps for the 2030s election or some such. If they go to the centre now they'll make next to no progress.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Why don't we look at how the "classes" matched up between 2024 and 2019:
AB: Labour 36% (+6), Conservatives 25% (-20), Liberal Democrats 14% (-2) C1: Labour 36% (+4), Conservatives 23% (-22). Liberal Democrats 13% (+1) C2: Labour 32% (nc), Conservatives 24% (-23), Liberal Democrats 11% (+2) DE: Labour 34% (-7), Conservatives 23% (-18), Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
That pretty much tells you all you need to know especially around where the Labour gains were and possibly why the Conservatives managed to hold 30-40 seats which looked as though they could fall to either Labour or the LDs.
As an aside, Redfield & Wilton picked up higher levels of uncertainty among women voting than men and it looks as though the DK women broke disproportionately back to the Conservatives.
There's increasing evidence the "supermajority" meme had some impact in the final days but I'm very much of the view a lot of Labour supporters just didn't bother to vote as the result seemed a foregone conclusion. I hope someone is tracking turnout numbers by constituency - my suspicion is the biggest falls in turnout will be in those areas which were nominally "safe" for Labour.
There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked. I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
It is beyond stupid.
The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.
The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.
Emerson: President Biden: 46% Trump 43% Biden, 11% undecided Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/
You keep quoting this stuff and it is utterly meaningless. It is based on a theoretical situation not reality. If someone takes over from Biden then those percentages will change dramatically.
Currently if Biden is the candidate in November then Trump will win. We all know that. Just some people are too set in their ways to admit it.
Kamala is far closer to a Hillary Clinton than a Barack Obama.
Swing states would hate her.
Far closer?
Well they are both women, there's that. But Kamala and Barack are both brown. All three are experienced and bright. Kamala isn't as articulate as Barak but she is more likeable than Hillary.
Hillary would have won the rust states is she wasn't so complacent. Kamala won't be complacent.
I don't see why swing states would hate her. Any evidence?
I don't particularly get the Kamala hate, apart from the obvious, but she is next in line.
It's time to pass the baton Joe.
Which he won't without clear poll evidence Kamala holds the swing states he won in 2020 and Hillary lost to Trump in 2016
Why? If it is what he believes in he would be a hypocrite to do otherwise. The SDLP leader did likewise. I'm sure there were others who did the same.
Nobody is holding a gun to their head. Either take the oath or don't. Either mean it or don't. No "I do this under protest" fuckwittery.
Taking the oath to the Crown isn't a piece of flummery, it's a vital part of the system of Government. If he doesn't want to do it he should walk out the door and give his job to somebody else. It means something, the House of Commons isn't just a nice place to sit when it rains.
Exactly: we have the House of Lords for that
The oath is to the King, his heirs and successors which could easily be construed to include an elected president according to taste.
All the debate about whether the Tories should go right to get reform votes or centre-leftish to get lablibgreen votes are moot.
Tories lost because on every policy they failed. From immigration to NHS to public debt and tax and spend. So they lost votes in all directions. Unless the public are convinced they are competent once again then they will not be in a position to gain enough votes back from anyone. They public have to trust they will do better on immigration and other policies not just promise "lower immigration and better services".
They should listen to Ben Houchen
It isn't really moot, because the lack of parliamentary unity meant they didn't have an effective majority. That made really significant reform very difficult. We have really big vested interests in this country against low taxes, against reform of public services, against creating the conditions for economic growth and social mobility, against reducing immigration, against any divergence from the EU. Without a united party, the Tories never stood a chance of implementing successful reforms.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Why don't we look at how the "classes" matched up between 2024 and 2019:
AB: Labour 36% (+6), Conservatives 25% (-20), Liberal Democrats 14% (-2) C1: Labour 36% (+4), Conservatives 23% (-22). Liberal Democrats 13% (+1) C2: Labour 32% (nc), Conservatives 24% (-23), Liberal Democrats 11% (+2) DE: Labour 34% (-7), Conservatives 23% (-18), Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
That pretty much tells you all you need to know especially around where the Labour gains were and possibly why the Conservatives managed to hold 30-40 seats which looked as though they could fall to either Labour or the LDs.
As an aside, Redfield & Wilton picked up higher levels of uncertainty among women voting than men and it looks as though the DK women broke disproportionately back to the Conservatives.
There's increasing evidence the "supermajority" meme had some impact in the final days but I'm very much of the view a lot of Labour supporters just didn't bother to vote as the result seemed a foregone conclusion. I hope someone is tracking turnout numbers by constituency - my suspicion is the biggest falls in turnout will be in those areas which were nominally "safe" for Labour.
Yes Reform are now the most working class party, not Labour. The LDs the most middle class party, not the Tories.
Age and home ownership status is the biggest difference between Tories and Labour now not social class and income
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Why don't we look at how the "classes" matched up between 2024 and 2019:
AB: Labour 36% (+6), Conservatives 25% (-20), Liberal Democrats 14% (-2) C1: Labour 36% (+4), Conservatives 23% (-22). Liberal Democrats 13% (+1) C2: Labour 32% (nc), Conservatives 24% (-23), Liberal Democrats 11% (+2) DE: Labour 34% (-7), Conservatives 23% (-18), Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
That pretty much tells you all you need to know especially around where the Labour gains were and possibly why the Conservatives managed to hold 30-40 seats which looked as though they could fall to either Labour or the LDs.
As an aside, Redfield & Wilton picked up higher levels of uncertainty among women voting than men and it looks as though the DK women broke disproportionately back to the Conservatives.
There's increasing evidence the "supermajority" meme had some impact in the final days but I'm very much of the view a lot of Labour supporters just didn't bother to vote as the result seemed a foregone conclusion. I hope someone is tracking turnout numbers by constituency - my suspicion is the biggest falls in turnout will be in those areas which were nominally "safe" for Labour.
It worked.
I think a week before the election the Conservatives were more or less on course for a wipeout.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Even on that poll, its 25% plays 22%, which is hardly decisive. And your friend Lord A has the balance tilted marginally the other way. The best we can say is that the number of former Tories splitting right and splitting left appear to have been pretty similar.
Plus the other 2%, who will mostly be Scottish and Welsh nationalists (please don’t tell me a Tory would never have the nationalists as next preference!), and after that various left-leaning indies.
As I said, stand back and broadly the same number of former Tories defected left and right.
The Tories first task is to get back their rightwing from defectors to Reform. If they do they get to 30-35%, then they can pick up any defectors to Labour and the LDs and other minor parties if Labour increases taxes and economic growth declines and immigration continues to rise.
I don't think you're wrong. The Conservatives need to get Reform voters before they do anything else. Far too early to move to the centre just yet, perhaps for the 2030s election or some such. If they go to the centre now they'll make next to no progress.
It's not about simple Right v. Centre, this is a very old debate, but about both - the broadest church possible - and showing you'll deliver.
Conservatives lost votes in both directions, and therefore they must address both to return.
I am against the monarchy in principle but not in actuality so I would take the oath on that basis.
Indeed and while we are less religious now in the UK and MPs can issue an oath of affirmation which does not mention God we are still majority monarchist by a clear margin in the UK and the King remains head of state.
Essentially more Brits believe in the King than believe in Christ or Muhammad
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Why don't we look at how the "classes" matched up between 2024 and 2019:
AB: Labour 36% (+6), Conservatives 25% (-20), Liberal Democrats 14% (-2) C1: Labour 36% (+4), Conservatives 23% (-22). Liberal Democrats 13% (+1) C2: Labour 32% (nc), Conservatives 24% (-23), Liberal Democrats 11% (+2) DE: Labour 34% (-7), Conservatives 23% (-18), Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
That pretty much tells you all you need to know especially around where the Labour gains were and possibly why the Conservatives managed to hold 30-40 seats which looked as though they could fall to either Labour or the LDs.
As an aside, Redfield & Wilton picked up higher levels of uncertainty among women voting than men and it looks as though the DK women broke disproportionately back to the Conservatives.
There's increasing evidence the "supermajority" meme had some impact in the final days but I'm very much of the view a lot of Labour supporters just didn't bother to vote as the result seemed a foregone conclusion. I hope someone is tracking turnout numbers by constituency - my suspicion is the biggest falls in turnout will be in those areas which were nominally "safe" for Labour.
The LDs the most middle class party, not the Tories.
Needless to say, everyone was horrified and stunned and it cast a shadow over the afternoon.
My thoughts very much with John who was calling at Lingfield yesterday and whose voice is so familiar to regular racegoers.
It's absolutely awful isn't it? It's hard to imagine what sort of rage could lead to someone murdering three people and no doubt if John has been home he's have been a fourth victim.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Why don't we look at how the "classes" matched up between 2024 and 2019:
AB: Labour 36% (+6), Conservatives 25% (-20), Liberal Democrats 14% (-2) C1: Labour 36% (+4), Conservatives 23% (-22). Liberal Democrats 13% (+1) C2: Labour 32% (nc), Conservatives 24% (-23), Liberal Democrats 11% (+2) DE: Labour 34% (-7), Conservatives 23% (-18), Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
That pretty much tells you all you need to know especially around where the Labour gains were and possibly why the Conservatives managed to hold 30-40 seats which looked as though they could fall to either Labour or the LDs.
As an aside, Redfield & Wilton picked up higher levels of uncertainty among women voting than men and it looks as though the DK women broke disproportionately back to the Conservatives.
There's increasing evidence the "supermajority" meme had some impact in the final days but I'm very much of the view a lot of Labour supporters just didn't bother to vote as the result seemed a foregone conclusion. I hope someone is tracking turnout numbers by constituency - my suspicion is the biggest falls in turnout will be in those areas which were nominally "safe" for Labour.
The LDs the most middle class party, not the Tories.
There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked. I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
It is beyond stupid.
The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.
The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.
I'm fucking
Most of PB told me I was "ranting on" when I started mentioning Biden's obvious senility about a year ago
There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked. I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
It is beyond stupid.
The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.
The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.
I'm fucking
Most of PB told me I was "ranting on" when I started mentioning Biden's obvious senility about a year ago
You’re always ranting on, the subject matter is immaterial.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Why don't we look at how the "classes" matched up between 2024 and 2019:
AB: Labour 36% (+6), Conservatives 25% (-20), Liberal Democrats 14% (-2) C1: Labour 36% (+4), Conservatives 23% (-22). Liberal Democrats 13% (+1) C2: Labour 32% (nc), Conservatives 24% (-23), Liberal Democrats 11% (+2) DE: Labour 34% (-7), Conservatives 23% (-18), Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
That pretty much tells you all you need to know especially around where the Labour gains were and possibly why the Conservatives managed to hold 30-40 seats which looked as though they could fall to either Labour or the LDs.
As an aside, Redfield & Wilton picked up higher levels of uncertainty among women voting than men and it looks as though the DK women broke disproportionately back to the Conservatives.
There's increasing evidence the "supermajority" meme had some impact in the final days but I'm very much of the view a lot of Labour supporters just didn't bother to vote as the result seemed a foregone conclusion. I hope someone is tracking turnout numbers by constituency - my suspicion is the biggest falls in turnout will be in those areas which were nominally "safe" for Labour.
The LDs the most middle class party, not the Tories.
There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked. I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
It is beyond stupid.
The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.
The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.
I'm fucking
Most of PB told me I was "ranting on" when I started mentioning Biden's obvious senility about a year ago
They are obviously trying to organise an exit. There’s a wafer thin line between him leaving (or appearing to leave) on his own volition and him staying. But pressuring him publicly to leave against his will is a sure fire way to get him to dig in.
I think he will leave, but the path is not straightforward.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Why don't we look at how the "classes" matched up between 2024 and 2019:
AB: Labour 36% (+6), Conservatives 25% (-20), Liberal Democrats 14% (-2) C1: Labour 36% (+4), Conservatives 23% (-22). Liberal Democrats 13% (+1) C2: Labour 32% (nc), Conservatives 24% (-23), Liberal Democrats 11% (+2) DE: Labour 34% (-7), Conservatives 23% (-18), Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
That pretty much tells you all you need to know especially around where the Labour gains were and possibly why the Conservatives managed to hold 30-40 seats which looked as though they could fall to either Labour or the LDs.
As an aside, Redfield & Wilton picked up higher levels of uncertainty among women voting than men and it looks as though the DK women broke disproportionately back to the Conservatives.
There's increasing evidence the "supermajority" meme had some impact in the final days but I'm very much of the view a lot of Labour supporters just didn't bother to vote as the result seemed a foregone conclusion. I hope someone is tracking turnout numbers by constituency - my suspicion is the biggest falls in turnout will be in those areas which were nominally "safe" for Labour.
It worked.
I think a week before the election the Conservatives were more or less on course for a wipeout.
More research is needed. I suspect there will be evidence Labour voters disproportionately stayed at home (no doubt some Conservatives did as well but until we see turnout evidence I remain to be convinced).
Let me offer three examples from suburban London:
Bromley & Biggin Hill: - Conservative vote down 20 points, Labour up 8 - swing "only" 14% and the Conservative survived by 302 votes.
Croydon South: - Conservative down 14.5, Labour up seven - the swing "only" 10.75%. Chris Philp survives with a majority of 2,313.
Orpington: - Conservative down 24, Labour up seven - the swing 15.5%. Gareth saved his Bacon by 5,118.
Had we seen the kind of swings we saw further north such as the 24.5% Conservative to Labour swing we saw in Amber Valley, both Bromley & Biggin Hill and Croydon South would have fallen.
There's evidence (YouGov backes this) the Conservatives managed to prevent a similar collapse in the AB vote to that seen in C1 and C2 classes. The three seats I mention would be overwhelmingly AB (Orpington has more C1 in the Crays).
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Why don't we look at how the "classes" matched up between 2024 and 2019:
AB: Labour 36% (+6), Conservatives 25% (-20), Liberal Democrats 14% (-2) C1: Labour 36% (+4), Conservatives 23% (-22). Liberal Democrats 13% (+1) C2: Labour 32% (nc), Conservatives 24% (-23), Liberal Democrats 11% (+2) DE: Labour 34% (-7), Conservatives 23% (-18), Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
That pretty much tells you all you need to know especially around where the Labour gains were and possibly why the Conservatives managed to hold 30-40 seats which looked as though they could fall to either Labour or the LDs.
As an aside, Redfield & Wilton picked up higher levels of uncertainty among women voting than men and it looks as though the DK women broke disproportionately back to the Conservatives.
There's increasing evidence the "supermajority" meme had some impact in the final days but I'm very much of the view a lot of Labour supporters just didn't bother to vote as the result seemed a foregone conclusion. I hope someone is tracking turnout numbers by constituency - my suspicion is the biggest falls in turnout will be in those areas which were nominally "safe" for Labour.
Yes Reform are now the most working class party, not Labour. The LDs the most middle class party, not the Tories.
Age and home ownership status is the biggest difference between Tories and Labour now not social class and income
Here's the chart you want.
All the constituencies, deprived on left, undeprived on right. Colours as you'd expect.
There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked. I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
It is beyond stupid.
The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.
The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.
I'm fucking
Most of PB told me I was "ranting on" when I started mentioning Biden's obvious senility about a year ago
You’re always ranting on, the subject matter is immaterial.
I'm nearly always RIGHT
More notably, I'm usually right against the PB consensus, because you are all a bit intellectually mediocre, and you all herd like some pathetic sheepfold of bleating centrist dads. Soz
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Why don't we look at how the "classes" matched up between 2024 and 2019:
AB: Labour 36% (+6), Conservatives 25% (-20), Liberal Democrats 14% (-2) C1: Labour 36% (+4), Conservatives 23% (-22). Liberal Democrats 13% (+1) C2: Labour 32% (nc), Conservatives 24% (-23), Liberal Democrats 11% (+2) DE: Labour 34% (-7), Conservatives 23% (-18), Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
That pretty much tells you all you need to know especially around where the Labour gains were and possibly why the Conservatives managed to hold 30-40 seats which looked as though they could fall to either Labour or the LDs.
As an aside, Redfield & Wilton picked up higher levels of uncertainty among women voting than men and it looks as though the DK women broke disproportionately back to the Conservatives.
There's increasing evidence the "supermajority" meme had some impact in the final days but I'm very much of the view a lot of Labour supporters just didn't bother to vote as the result seemed a foregone conclusion. I hope someone is tracking turnout numbers by constituency - my suspicion is the biggest falls in turnout will be in those areas which were nominally "safe" for Labour.
Yes Reform are now the most working class party, not Labour. The LDs the most middle class party, not the Tories.
Age and home ownership status is the biggest difference between Tories and Labour now not social class and income
Here's the chart you want.
All the constituencies, deprived on left, undeprived on right. Colours as you'd expect.
Comments
I'm sure it's been mentioned elsewhere but I was at Lingfield this afternoon (Simon Holt on the commentary) as news filtered out about poor John Hunt.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/three-women-murdered-in-crossbow-attack-are-family-of-bbc-commentator-john-hunt-aydF93J6Aa0Q/
Needless to say, everyone was horrified and stunned and it cast a shadow over the afternoon.
My thoughts very much with John who was calling at Lingfield yesterday and whose voice is so familiar to regular racegoers.
Ashcroft has 23% of 2019 Conservatives voting Reform in 2024 to just 21% voting Labour, LD or Green
https://conservativehome.com/2024/07/10/lord-ashcroft-my-election-day-poll-how-britain-voted-last-thursday-and-why/#:~:text=Just under one in five (19 per cent) voted Labour,voted Remain backed the Tories.
It will, I suspect, be easier to win back the Right, and to stage some sort of recovery. But that will probably not be sufficient in itself to return the party to government. And, of course, it also has the issue of ensuring tactical voting continues.
Taking the oath to the Crown isn't a piece of flummery, it's a vital part of the system of Government. If he doesn't want to do it he should walk out the door and give his job to somebody else. It means something, the House of Commons isn't just a nice place to sit when it rains.
As I said, stand back and broadly the same number of former Tories defected left and right.
It's time to pass the baton Joe.
He's being a twat.
Tories lost because on every policy they failed. From immigration to NHS to public debt and tax and spend. So they lost votes in all directions. Unless the public are convinced they are competent once again then they will not be in a position to gain enough votes back from anyone. They public have to trust they will do better on immigration and other policies not just promise "lower immigration and better services".
They should listen to Ben Houchen
It was Black Wednesday which lost the Tories the 1997 GE, Labour were well ahead in the polls even when Blair took over.
It was the 2008 crash and the IHT cut promise that won the Tories most seats in 2010, Brown Labour actually were ahead of 'centrist' Cameron's Tories for most of summer 2007 in the polls.
Equally it was partygate and the Truss budget and surging interest rates and mortgage costs that gave Starmer his big poll lead over the Tories and landslide win, despite Starmer being the 'centrist' Labour candidate in 2020 Boris still led Starmer Labour comfortably in 2021 polls
AB: Labour 36% (+6), Conservatives 25% (-20), Liberal Democrats 14% (-2)
C1: Labour 36% (+4), Conservatives 23% (-22). Liberal Democrats 13% (+1)
C2: Labour 32% (nc), Conservatives 24% (-23), Liberal Democrats 11% (+2)
DE: Labour 34% (-7), Conservatives 23% (-18), Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
That pretty much tells you all you need to know especially around where the Labour gains were and possibly why the Conservatives managed to hold 30-40 seats which looked as though they could fall to either Labour or the LDs.
As an aside, Redfield & Wilton picked up higher levels of uncertainty among women voting than men and it looks as though the DK women broke disproportionately back to the Conservatives.
There's increasing evidence the "supermajority" meme had some impact in the final days but I'm very much of the view a lot of Labour supporters just didn't bother to vote as the result seemed a foregone conclusion. I hope someone is tracking turnout numbers by constituency - my suspicion is the biggest falls in turnout will be in those areas which were nominally "safe" for Labour.
The friendly between Peterhead and Aberdeen has been called off due to heavy rain.
Age and home ownership status is the biggest difference between Tories and Labour now not social class and income
I think a week before the election the Conservatives were more or less on course for a wipeout.
Conservatives lost votes in both directions, and therefore they must address both to return.
Essentially more Brits believe in the King than believe in Christ or Muhammad
Actually looking at it, it isn't so bad. He's being honest about it and not avoiding it.
RIP to all of them.
If Clive Lewis can find something to get attention over he will, including championing independence of the Peoples Republic of Norwich....
Good start by Engerland
Edit. 0-1. I'll just stfu
I think he will leave, but the path is not straightforward.
This is when you earn your reputation.
First it was Harry Kane, now it is Declan Rice.
Let me offer three examples from suburban London:
Bromley & Biggin Hill: - Conservative vote down 20 points, Labour up 8 - swing "only" 14% and the Conservative survived by 302 votes.
Croydon South: - Conservative down 14.5, Labour up seven - the swing "only" 10.75%. Chris Philp survives with a majority of 2,313.
Orpington: - Conservative down 24, Labour up seven - the swing 15.5%. Gareth saved his Bacon by 5,118.
Had we seen the kind of swings we saw further north such as the 24.5% Conservative to Labour swing we saw in Amber Valley, both Bromley & Biggin Hill and Croydon South would have fallen.
There's evidence (YouGov backes this) the Conservatives managed to prevent a similar collapse in the AB vote to that seen in C1 and C2 classes. The three seats I mention would be overwhelmingly AB (Orpington has more C1 in the Crays).
All the constituencies, deprived on left, undeprived on right. Colours as you'd expect.
https://twitter.com/undertheraedar/status/1810214903971459216
Suspect Reform are the party of people and places that don't see themselves as doing well, but are doing better than they realise.
More notably, I'm usually right against the PB consensus, because you are all a bit intellectually mediocre, and you all herd like some pathetic sheepfold of bleating centrist dads. Soz
Anyway, 1-1.
But I'll take it.
They are doing relatively badly, not absolutely.
1-1