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PB Predictions Competition 2024 – July update – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,607
edited July 2024 in General
imagePB Predictions Competition 2024 – July update – politicalbetting.com

A quick update on the 2024 PB Predictions Competition.

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,098
    Thanks Ben.

    Obviously I would have won this competition had I have entered.

    #EatYourHeartOutAftertimingAnsell
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,098
    Also apologies for the earlier screw up with this thread.

    The fault is all mine.

    Ben has done an excellent job with this.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also apologies for the earlier screw up with this thread.

    The fault is all mine.

    Still bereft at Dave's resignation? :(
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also apologies for the earlier screw up with this thread.

    The fault is all mine.

    Still bereft at Dave's resignation? :(
    It's hard posting threads through salt tears.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    edited July 2024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also apologies for the earlier screw up with this thread.

    The fault is all mine.

    Ben has done an excellent job with this.

    Fake news but appreciated ;-)

    Mea culpa
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,725
    FPT
    williamglenn said:

    George Clooney calls on Biden to drop out.

    https://x.com/yashar/status/1811055389879992828

    That should do it, lol.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also apologies for the earlier screw up with this thread.

    The fault is all mine.

    Still bereft at Dave's resignation? :(
    Like Queen Victoria after Albert died.
    Got the Hots for Billy Connolly?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    FPT - Note that the deadline for qualifying candidates for the Ohio statewide ballot is August 7.

    Which would appear in turn to be deadline for Democrats (or anybody else) to nominate their nominees for POTUS and VP.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also apologies for the earlier screw up with this thread.

    The fault is all mine.

    Ben has done an excellent job with this.

    I hope Alan doesn't take offence at being relegated to joint leader.

    Seems I missed this competition. I would, of course, have been awesome. I mean, obviously Swinney was nailed on to be SNP leader come a 4 July election :hushed:
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Thanks Ben.

    Obviously I would have won this competition had I have entered.

    #EatYourHeartOutAftertimingAnsell

    Equally obviously TSE is NOT Mike Pence.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    Wow the tripe lord actually admits to being wrong. Photograph it from space.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Starmer's a top bloke.

    NEW: Keir Starmer signals Ukraine can use British Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets inside Russia

    First time he has committed to that position, answering @Bloomberg UK question on way to Washington

    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1811059811988955639

    Jezza will be displeased...
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,759
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    williamglenn said:

    George Clooney calls on Biden to drop out.

    https://x.com/yashar/status/1811055389879992828

    That should do it, lol.
    He should run.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,136
    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,759
    I may have spoken too soon about Musetti-Fritz. Competitive now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,893
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Thanks Ben.

    Obviously I would have won this competition had I have entered.

    #EatYourHeartOutAftertimingAnsell

    Equally obviously TSE is NOT Mike Pence.
    Are you sure?

    Both are always impeccably well attired. And let's not even talk about their effect on the opposite sex.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,893
    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,098
    edited July 2024
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Wow the tripe lord actually admits to being wrong. Photograph it from space.

    Because I am hardly ever wrong, I don't mind admitting when I am wrong, I think I am wrong maybe once a year, maybe every three years

    I apologised to Doug Seal in a thread header for taking the piss out of him.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/02/04/the-liz-truss-comeback-is-on/
  • eekeek Posts: 30,854
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    As I said yesterday - it makes sense to wait until you discover who is foolish enough to be Trump's VP nomination...
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,910
    edited July 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Biden can be laid for the Democrat nomination at 1.92. FREE MONEY ??
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,467
    Thanks Ben. I'm confident of coming through for at least a podium. Feeling especially good about my Number 5: Ron De Santis vs Michelle Obama.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,759
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    A call to quit from Obama would get it over and done with quickly.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,845
    edited July 2024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also apologies for the earlier screw up with this thread.

    The fault is all mine.

    Still bereft at Dave's resignation? :(
    Like Queen Victoria after Albert died.
    Was Albert not prominent on the Morecambe and Wise show?

    With a .. er .. Mouth Organ.

    It's notable that the phrase used was borrowed from Queen Victoria: "Not now, Albert !"

    (Stop giggling at the back; we are doing the serious business of consoling @TSE )
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://x.com/suellabraverman/status/1811060446494925107

    I’d be interested in knowing whether Kemi thinks I’m having a “very public nervous breakdown”.

    #honesty #unity #wedontleak
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,467
    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    Some good money to be lost doing that too.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,718
    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    A call to quit from Obama would get it over and done with quickly.
    Couldn’t they just move him to the set of the West Wing with a load of actors and pretend he’s still the president and tell the rest of the world he’s stepped down and wishes for privacy to write his memoirs.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    boulay said:

    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    A call to quit from Obama would get it over and done with quickly.
    Couldn’t they just move him to the set of the West Wing with a load of actors and pretend he’s still the president and tell the rest of the world he’s stepped down and wishes for privacy to write his memoirs.
    "They" (as in those dependent on his patronage) are in hot water as soon as that happens. Thats why
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited July 2024
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/suellabraverman/status/1811060446494925107

    I’d be interested in knowing whether Kemi thinks I’m having a “very public nervous breakdown”.

    #honesty #unity #wedontleak

    I DON'T think Sue-Ellen is having a very public nervous breakdown. I think she's always been slightly loopy... I'd even go so far as to say she gives "bunny boiler" vibes, potentially...
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    As I said yesterday - it makes sense to wait until you discover who is foolish enough to be Trump's VP nomination...
    Boris Johnson. You heard it here first.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,910
    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    A call to quit from Obama would get it over and done with quickly.
    Or if Obama tells Biden that he thinks he should quit and if he doesn't do so Obama says he will go public with his view. That would surely do it? And it would allow Biden to give the impression of making the decision himself.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    rcs1000 said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Thanks Ben.

    Obviously I would have won this competition had I have entered.

    #EatYourHeartOutAftertimingAnsell

    Equally obviously TSE is NOT Mike Pence.
    Are you sure?

    Both are always impeccably well attired. And let's not even talk about their effect on the opposite sex.
    You make some good points.

    PLUS fits my own theory, that Mike Pence is really an exceptionally progressive Muslim (theologically speaking).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,893
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    As I said yesterday - it makes sense to wait until you discover who is foolish enough to be Trump's VP nomination...
    Boris Johnson. You heard it here first.
    I'm happy to offer you decent odds if you want to put a few quid on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,673
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/suellabraverman/status/1811060446494925107

    I’d be interested in knowing whether Kemi thinks I’m having a “very public nervous breakdown”.

    #honesty #unity #wedontleak

    Well, if Badenoch does that would be the first time most of the country would wholeheartedly agree with her.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,718
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/suellabraverman/status/1811060446494925107

    I’d be interested in knowing whether Kemi thinks I’m having a “very public nervous breakdown”.

    #honesty #unity #wedontleak

    It’s all about to go Godzilla v Kong.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,845
    MattW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also apologies for the earlier screw up with this thread.

    The fault is all mine.

    Still bereft at Dave's resignation? :(
    Like Queen Victoria after Albert died.
    Was Albert not prominent on the Morecambe and Wise show?

    With a .. er .. Mouth Organ.

    It's notable that the phrase used was borrowed from Queen Victoria: "Not now, Albert !"

    (Stop giggling at the back; we are doing the serious business of consoling @TSE )
    ------------

    Bugger. He was called Arthur.

    http://www.morecambeandwise.com/viewpage.aspx?pageid=266

    Why is history so inconveniently wrong?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,262
    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    A call to quit from Obama would get it over and done with quickly.
    Obama has already confirmed he is behind his former VP
    '@BarackObama
    Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November. http://joebiden.com'
    https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,725
    O/T

    Wimbledon making excuses for why there have been empty seats, including for Raducanu's match. (I applied for tickets this year and was unsuccessful which makes it all the more annoying).

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tennis/2024/07/08/wimbledon-empty-seats-court-no1-alex-de-minaur-arthur-fils/
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    MattW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also apologies for the earlier screw up with this thread.

    The fault is all mine.

    Still bereft at Dave's resignation? :(
    Like Queen Victoria after Albert died.
    Was Albert not prominent on the Morecambe and Wise show?

    With a .. er .. Mouth Organ.

    It's notable that the phrase used was borrowed from Queen Victoria: "Not now, Albert !"

    (Stop giggling at the back; we are doing the serious business of consoling @TSE )
    Think the CORRECTED quote (based on V+A birthrate & her "warm" nature) should be: "Please now, Albert!"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,725
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/suellabraverman/status/1811060446494925107

    I’d be interested in knowing whether Kemi thinks I’m having a “very public nervous breakdown”.

    #honesty #unity #wedontleak

    Those who wanted an entertaining contest aren't going to be disappointed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,262
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    As I said yesterday - it makes sense to wait until you discover who is foolish enough to be Trump's VP nomination...
    Likely Senator JD Vance of Ohio who is also MAGA
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,673
    edited July 2024
    HYUFD said:

    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    A call to quit from Obama would get it over and done with quickly.
    Obama has already confirmed he is behind his former VP
    '@BarackObama
    Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November. http://joebiden.com'
    https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
    I mean, I don't think Biden's dropping out, and I still think he's likely to win.*

    But - all these people supporting him would say that, wouldn't they, until the moment they don't?

    Just as Thatcher didn't come out and resign straight away after the first ballot, but said she'd contest the next round, even though she was clearly fatally damaged.

    *My track record suggests everyone should bet the house on Trump, to enjoy the brief spell before he absent-mindedly nukes the world to try and make sharks extinct a prosperous one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,262
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,262
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    A call to quit from Obama would get it over and done with quickly.
    Obama has already confirmed he is behind his former VP
    '@BarackObama
    Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November. http://joebiden.com'
    https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
    I mean, I don't think Biden's dropping out, and I still think he's likely to win.*

    But - all these people supporting him would say that, wouldn't they, until the moment they don't?

    Just as Thatcher didn't come out and resign straight away after the first ballot, but said she'd contest the next round, even though she was clearly fatally damaged.

    *My track record suggests everyone should bet the house on Trump, to enjoy the brief spell before he absent-mindedly nukes the world to try and make sharks extinct a prosperous one.
    Thatcher was done because Major and Heseltine beat Kinnock in hypothetical polls while the Tories under her trailed Kinnock Labour.

    Biden is saved at the moment as no Dem candidate interested does any better v Trump than him
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,759
    HYUFD said:

    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    A call to quit from Obama would get it over and done with quickly.
    Obama has already confirmed he is behind his former VP
    '@BarackObama
    Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself. Between someone who tells the truth; who knows right from wrong and will give it to the American people straight — and someone who lies through his teeth for his own benefit. Last night didn’t change that, and it’s why so much is at stake in November. http://joebiden.com'
    https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017
    That was then; this is now.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,559
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also apologies for the earlier screw up with this thread.

    The fault is all mine.

    Still bereft at Dave's resignation? :(
    Like Queen Victoria after Albert died.
    Comforted by a big hairy Scotsman?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,910
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    HYUFD. Presumably you are putting shed loads of money on Biden being the nominee? And Robert presumably you are the one laying HYUFD's bets?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,262
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/suellabraverman/status/1811060446494925107

    I’d be interested in knowing whether Kemi thinks I’m having a “very public nervous breakdown”.

    #honesty #unity #wedontleak

    In a Badenoch v Braverman fight Kemi would be the moderate, though I suspect MPs put Tugendhat against one of those 2 to the members, unless Cleverly or Barclay or Coutinho really pick up steam
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,434
    boulay said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/suellabraverman/status/1811060446494925107

    I’d be interested in knowing whether Kemi thinks I’m having a “very public nervous breakdown”.

    #honesty #unity #wedontleak

    It’s all about to go Godzilla v Kong.
    More Alien vs Predator, tho' that dates me.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited July 2024
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/suellabraverman/status/1811060446494925107

    I’d be interested in knowing whether Kemi thinks I’m having a “very public nervous breakdown”.

    #honesty #unity #wedontleak

    In a Badenoch v Braverman fight Kemi would be the moderate, though I suspect MPs put Tugendhat against one of those 2 to the members, unless Cleverly or Barclay or Coutinho really pick up steam
    The MPs won't risk putting Suella to the membership?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also apologies for the earlier screw up with this thread.

    The fault is all mine.

    Still bereft at Dave's resignation? :(
    Like Queen Victoria after Albert died.
    Comforted by a big hairy Scotsman?
    John Brown was Alex Salmond's great-great-granddaddy?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,893
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,759
    stjohn said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    HYUFD. Presumably you are putting shed loads of money on Biden being the nominee? And Robert presumably you are the one laying HYUFD's bets?
    Disclaimer: I have a large (for me) bet on Biden being the nominee, placed two years ago.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,673
    edited July 2024
    I wonder if Graeme Hick ever looks at Ollie Pope's stats and feels hard done by?

    Hick after 44 Tests averaged 37 with 6 hundreds.

    Pope after 44 Tests averages 34 with 5 hundreds.

    And Hick scored those runs against some very tough attacks - the equivalent of Pope facing mostly Australia.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,432
    rcs1000 said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Thanks Ben.

    Obviously I would have won this competition had I have entered.

    #EatYourHeartOutAftertimingAnsell

    Equally obviously TSE is NOT Mike Pence.
    Are you sure?

    Both are always impeccably well attired. And let's not even talk about their effect on the opposite sex.
    Nausea? ;)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,839
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

    The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked.
    I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 202
    GIN1138 said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Wow the tripe lord actually admits to being wrong. Photograph it from space.

    What's with all these digs you're posting at TSE? Is there some feud going on that I've missed?

    I tease TSE all the time but it's all lighthearted. Your posts seem somewhat personal?
    BatteredCodorHaddock might be having a very public* nervous breakdown.

    (*If BTL comments threads populated by a couple of dozen politics nerds count as very public. Narrator: They don’t.)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,759
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/suellabraverman/status/1811060446494925107

    I’d be interested in knowing whether Kemi thinks I’m having a “very public nervous breakdown”.

    #honesty #unity #wedontleak

    In a Badenoch v Braverman fight Kemi would be the moderate, though I suspect MPs put Tugendhat against one of those 2 to the members, unless Cleverly or Barclay or Coutinho really pick up steam
    This is the story of ever shifting Tory Overton window, the same one that had Brexiteer Thatcherite Rishi Sunak branded a woke lefty, styled lukewarm Eurosceptic and EPP refusenik David Cameron as a modernising liberal compassionate Conservative.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,839
    Just read the Gray article posted on the last thread.
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/conservatives/2024/07/tory-centre-will-not-hold-john-gray

    What a load of tosh.
    It would embarrass as a PB header.

    To say it assumes facts not in evidence is to be generous. It’s just a splenetic recitation of what seems to be his own political grudges. If that’s one of our foremost public intellectuals, heaven help us.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,718
    …
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/suellabraverman/status/1811060446494925107

    I’d be interested in knowing whether Kemi thinks I’m having a “very public nervous breakdown”.

    #honesty #unity #wedontleak

    In a Badenoch v Braverman fight Kemi would be the moderate, though I suspect MPs put Tugendhat against one of those 2 to the members, unless Cleverly or Barclay or Coutinho really pick up steam
    Have you done any analysis of the remaining MPs to get a gist of the numbers of groups in the Tory party now? So for example if there are only maybe 30 on the right-right where it might be possible for the other 90 or so to organise and tactically vote to ensure two more moderates go to the members? Or if there are 60 odd right-right or right-right curious so we are guaranteed to have at least one from that wing of the party.

    You seem to have a steer on things, more so than most so it would be interesting if you could see any pattern.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    OFF TOPIC - Not toooooo many blank spaces left in the list for new HMG:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starmer_ministry

    Note that (officially anyway) parliamentary private secretaries to ministers (the unpaid peanut gallery of the "payroll vote") have NOT been chosen.

    PLUS the vital post of Second Church Estates Commissioner is STILL unfilled?!?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,042
    England take the lead with 9 wickets in hand. Nice of the Windies to give Jimmy a final game but this is not very competitive
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,759
    ydoethur said:

    I wonder if Graeme Hick ever looks at Ollie Pope's stats and feels hard done by?

    Hick after 44 Tests averaged 37 with 6 hundreds.

    Pope after 44 Tests averages 34 with 5 hundreds.

    And Hick scored those runs against some very tough attacks - the equivalent of Pope facing mostly Australia.

    The issue with Hick was the sky high expectations. Like Ramprakash. Both supremely gifted players who were head and shoulders above their peer group in county cricket and looked set to dominate test attacks, yet never did.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,166
    edited July 2024
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

    The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked.
    I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
    It is beyond stupid.

    The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.

    The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.

    I'm fucking :rage:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,963
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Well, yes, he'd definitely go by January 2029, and it could be sooner.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,098
    MisterBedfordshire said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Also apologies for the earlier screw up with this thread.

    The fault is all mine.

    Still bereft at Dave's resignation? :(
    Like Queen Victoria after Albert died.
    Got the Hots for Billy Connolly?
    Please!

    I do have some standards, okay they are lower than everybody else’s but I do have them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,166
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    As I said yesterday - it makes sense to wait until you discover who is foolish enough to be Trump's VP nomination...
    Likely Senator JD Vance of Ohio who is also MAGA
    I really hope so. Or at least my wallet does. I am on at 65/1.

  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,967
    The Tories are a joke.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,166
    Andy_JS said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/suellabraverman/status/1811060446494925107

    I’d be interested in knowing whether Kemi thinks I’m having a “very public nervous breakdown”.

    #honesty #unity #wedontleak

    Those who wanted an entertaining contest aren't going to be disappointed.
    I love blue on blue warfare.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,963
    Andy_JS said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/suellabraverman/status/1811060446494925107

    I’d be interested in knowing whether Kemi thinks I’m having a “very public nervous breakdown”.

    #honesty #unity #wedontleak

    Those who wanted an entertaining contest aren't going to be disappointed.
    Well, that's just it. It's WWE politics.

    I haven't a clue what Suella is going. She used to have a reputation for being lovely when she first entered politics, and I fear she's playing up to a caricature- possibly accentuated by social media.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,718
    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

    The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked.
    I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
    It is beyond stupid.

    The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.

    The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.

    I'm fucking :rage:
    I remember our family, as my father’s dementia got noticeable, fighting to stop him driving. He was so insulted, so angry, thought we were awful and stopping him for no good reason (he couldn’t obviously recall the actual issues) and it was very hard work and a very painful chapter.

    Now that’s just telling a man in his late 70’s he can’t drive. Imagine telling the most powerful man on the planet that he’s not mentally capable to carry on being the most powerful man on the planet.

    If you have any dissenters who take his side it will make it a million times harder with their enabling. There is pride, incomprehension, a loss of reason anyway and frankly the whole emotional acceptance that you are on effectively a death spiral and the end of being “you”. Let’s hope he can be persuaded without being humiliated.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

    The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked.
    I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
    I'd be fine with him only being able to do it for four months, and in reality Harris being expected to take over at some point, but it has become a bit too obvious that Biden is very much not up to 4 years, so the necessary pretence is not there, which makes his winning unlikely.

    And it distracts from how barmy Trump also is, and how much more dangerous he is.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,963
    boulay said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/suellabraverman/status/1811060446494925107

    I’d be interested in knowing whether Kemi thinks I’m having a “very public nervous breakdown”.

    #honesty #unity #wedontleak

    It’s all about to go Godzilla v Kong.
    She's probably trash talking to get attention and a response from Kemi so she pumps up into the race as the obvious main "opponent".

    Kemi should just ignore it and not rise to it.
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 142
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Wimbledon making excuses for why there have been empty seats, including for Raducanu's match. (I applied for tickets this year and was unsuccessful which makes it all the more annoying).

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tennis/2024/07/08/wimbledon-empty-seats-court-no1-alex-de-minaur-arthur-fils/

    Like the expensive Wembley seats just after half time in any game.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,098
    Casino_Royale said:

    Andy_JS said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/suellabraverman/status/1811060446494925107

    I’d be interested in knowing whether Kemi thinks I’m having a “very public nervous breakdown”.

    #honesty #unity #wedontleak

    Those who wanted an entertaining contest aren't going to be disappointed.
    Well, that's just it. It's WWE politics.

    I haven't a clue what Suella is going. She used to have a reputation for being lovely when she first entered politics, and I fear she's playing up to a caricature- possibly accentuated by social media.
    I heard from someone who has known her since university that she’s now got that messianic belief/zeal about herself that she cannot countenance she could be wrong.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,963
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

    My guess is he makes it through the convention (it's only next month) and for want of a clear challenger with clear support it's too difficult to eject him given he has all the delegates, and he makes it.

    He then loses in November.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,262
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

    Would a President Biden in a coma on a life support machine be better than a compis mentis President Trump? 50% of Americans probably think so
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    In latest Emerson College polling, Biden does far better vs Trump than any other Democrat.

    Biden tied with Trump in two way head to head.

    The next best Democrat is Gore - Trump +5 vs Gore.

    Trump +6 vs Harris.

    Trump +7 vs Clinton.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Thangam Debbonaire says she was “collateral damage” because of Gaza

    https://x.com/channel4news/status/1811069277086097878
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,963
    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

    The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked.
    I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
    It is beyond stupid.

    The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.

    The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.

    I'm fucking :rage:
    Should you be typing on here if you're fucking?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,098
    Casino_Royale said:

    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

    The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked.
    I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
    It is beyond stupid.

    The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.

    The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.

    I'm fucking :rage:
    Should you be typing on here if you're fucking?
    You can’t multi-task?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,042
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

    Would a President Biden in a coma on a life support machine be better than a compis mentis President Trump? 50% of Americans probably think so
    Indeed. But I am worried about the 50% that don’t.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,963
    boulay said:

    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

    The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked.
    I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
    It is beyond stupid.

    The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.

    The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.

    I'm fucking :rage:
    I remember our family, as my father’s dementia got noticeable, fighting to stop him driving. He was so insulted, so angry, thought we were awful and stopping him for no good reason (he couldn’t obviously recall the actual issues) and it was very hard work and a very painful chapter.

    Now that’s just telling a man in his late 70’s he can’t drive. Imagine telling the most powerful man on the planet that he’s not mentally capable to carry on being the most powerful man on the planet.

    If you have any dissenters who take his side it will make it a million times harder with their enabling. There is pride, incomprehension, a loss of reason anyway and frankly the whole emotional acceptance that you are on effectively a death spiral and the end of being “you”. Let’s hope he can be persuaded without being humiliated.
    The trouble is there's no-one who'd obviously do better. I don't believe Kamala Harris would for a second, despite the hypothetical polls.

    A bright young thing like Buttigieg or a unifier like Michelle Obama might, but we're getting into fantasy here - like Richard Branson leading the Tories or David Attenborough being speaker.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    MikeL said:

    In latest Emerson College polling, Biden does far better vs Trump than any other Democrat.

    Biden tied with Trump in two way head to head.

    The next best Democrat is Gore - Trump +5 vs Gore.

    Trump +6 vs Harris.

    Trump +7 vs Clinton.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    A landslide for Trump would be the unifying moment the US needs.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,262
    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

    The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked.
    I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
    It is beyond stupid.

    The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.

    The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.

    I'm fucking :rage:
    Except the polls show you are not correct.

    Redfield:
    Biden 42% Trump 43%
    Harris 37% Trump 44%

    Yougov:
    Biden 40% Trump 43%
    Harris 38% Trump 42%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Emerson:
    President Biden: 46% Trump 43% Biden, 11% undecided
    Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided
    Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided
    California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided
    Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided
    Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided
    Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided
    Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided
    Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided
    Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided
    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,042
    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

    My guess is he makes it through the convention (it's only next month) and for want of a clear challenger with clear support it's too difficult to eject him given he has all the delegates, and he makes it.

    He then loses in November.
    If he’s going to quit it really has to be soon. The party’s going to have to unite behind someone else and do a lot to boost their profile. I find it hard to see that happening for anyone other than Harris. If Biden hadn’t stood I don’t think she would have won but now she’s in pole position.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,262
    boulay said:

    …

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/suellabraverman/status/1811060446494925107

    I’d be interested in knowing whether Kemi thinks I’m having a “very public nervous breakdown”.

    #honesty #unity #wedontleak

    In a Badenoch v Braverman fight Kemi would be the moderate, though I suspect MPs put Tugendhat against one of those 2 to the members, unless Cleverly or Barclay or Coutinho really pick up steam
    Have you done any analysis of the remaining MPs to get a gist of the numbers of groups in the Tory party now? So for example if there are only maybe 30 on the right-right where it might be possible for the other 90 or so to organise and tactically vote to ensure two more moderates go to the members? Or if there are 60 odd right-right or right-right curious so we are guaranteed to have at least one from that wing of the party.

    You seem to have a steer on things, more so than most so it would be interesting if you could see any pattern.
    I would say the ERG is weaker than before, several prominent figures lost their seats as did most redwall MPs.

    However many bluewall MPs and candidates were defeated too so whether the ERG and their wing have enough to get to 60 is debateable but not impossible
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,262
    williamglenn said:

    MikeL said:

    In latest Emerson College polling, Biden does far better vs Trump than any other Democrat.

    Biden tied with Trump in two way head to head.

    The next best Democrat is Gore - Trump +5 vs Gore.

    Trump +6 vs Harris.

    Trump +7 vs Clinton.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    A landslide for Trump would be the unifying moment the US needs.
    Not happening, even now barely any poll has Trump over 50%.

    Haley might have got a landslide against Biden or Harris and been a unifying President, Trump won't even if he wins again
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,963
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

    Would a President Biden in a coma on a life support machine be better than a compis mentis President Trump? 50% of Americans probably think so
    Trump isn't compis mentis either.

    I think it leads to a general WTF election.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,495
    HYUFD said:

    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

    The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked.
    I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
    It is beyond stupid.

    The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.

    The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.

    I'm fucking :rage:
    Except the polls show you are not correct.

    Redfield:
    Biden 42% Trump 43%
    Harris 37% Trump 44%

    Yougov:
    Biden 40% Trump 43%
    Harris 38% Trump 42%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Emerson:
    President Biden: 46% Trump 43% Biden, 11% undecided
    Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided
    Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided
    California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided
    Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided
    Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided
    Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided
    Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided
    Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided
    Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided
    https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/
    You keep quoting this stuff and it is utterly meaningless. It is based on a theoretical situation not reality. If someone takes over from Biden then those percentages will change dramatically.

    Currently if Biden is the candidate in November then Trump will win. We all know that. Just some people are too set in their ways to admit it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,434
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/suellabraverman/status/1811060446494925107

    I’d be interested in knowing whether Kemi thinks I’m having a “very public nervous breakdown”.

    #honesty #unity #wedontleak

    • "Electorate, tell your Aunty Kemi she smells of poo"
    • "Aunty Kemi, Aunty Suella says you smell of poo"
    • "Tell her she does it with the dustman"
    • "Aunty Suella, Aunty Kemi says you do it with the dustman!"
    Worst. Divorce. Evah.


  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Casino_Royale said:

    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

    The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked.
    I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
    It is beyond stupid.

    The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.

    The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.

    I'm fucking :rage:
    Should you be typing on here if you're fucking?
    👀...
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,718
    Casino_Royale said:

    boulay said:

    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    MPartridge said:

    Odds on Biden being the Democrat nominee on betfair shifting quite a bit today.

    1.54 @1pm

    To

    1.92 @5pm

    There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
    I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
    Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
    Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.

    The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked.
    I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
    It is beyond stupid.

    The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.

    The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.

    I'm fucking :rage:
    I remember our family, as my father’s dementia got noticeable, fighting to stop him driving. He was so insulted, so angry, thought we were awful and stopping him for no good reason (he couldn’t obviously recall the actual issues) and it was very hard work and a very painful chapter.

    Now that’s just telling a man in his late 70’s he can’t drive. Imagine telling the most powerful man on the planet that he’s not mentally capable to carry on being the most powerful man on the planet.

    If you have any dissenters who take his side it will make it a million times harder with their enabling. There is pride, incomprehension, a loss of reason anyway and frankly the whole emotional acceptance that you are on effectively a death spiral and the end of being “you”. Let’s hope he can be persuaded without being humiliated.
    The trouble is there's no-one who'd obviously do better. I don't believe Kamala Harris would for a second, despite the hypothetical polls.

    A bright young thing like Buttigieg or a unifier like Michelle Obama might, but we're getting into fantasy here - like Richard Branson leading the Tories or David Attenborough being speaker.
    It feels though that it’s the last few minutes of the Super Bowl and the Quarter back is having a shocker. You can leave him on because he’s got you to the Super Bowl. He was the one who won it for you last year but his shoulder has gone.

    Do you keep him on and hope somehow the other team screw up or you just get lucky with one of your plays or do you bring on the second string QB. Nobody knows if he’s any good because he hasn’t been seen out of training but there’s a chance that if you allow the, on the big stage, with the A team in support then they make that Hail Mary pass and win.

    My incredibly tortured point is that we haven’t seen Harris. If she is thrown on now she will have the absolute weight of the White a house press machine, the US media, even if Fox goes for her the Lib US media will boost her to avoid Trump.

    If she’s given a microphone and says what she wants to do it might be that a lot of people say, “that sounds good” and others just want anyone but Trump because finally she doesn’t have to toe the Biden line with his policies.

    What’s the old thing, never come off the pitch with regrets that you didn’t try everything.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,495
    williamglenn said:

    MikeL said:

    In latest Emerson College polling, Biden does far better vs Trump than any other Democrat.

    Biden tied with Trump in two way head to head.

    The next best Democrat is Gore - Trump +5 vs Gore.

    Trump +6 vs Harris.

    Trump +7 vs Clinton.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    A landslide for Trump would be the unifying moment the US needs.
    If you believe that then you really are deluded. Trump will not unify the country, not only because he can't but because he is not interested. He will be out for revenge and that is it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,467
    Clooney?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,262
    MikeL said:

    In latest Emerson College polling, Biden does far better vs Trump than any other Democrat.

    Biden tied with Trump in two way head to head.

    The next best Democrat is Gore - Trump +5 vs Gore.

    Trump +6 vs Harris.

    Trump +7 vs Clinton.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

    Gore to be fair to him did win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2000 whereas Hillary didn't in 2016 and won most other Biden states and added Iowa too which even Biden failed to win.

    If Biden did drop out they could do worse than Gore, he has already proved he can win at least the popular vote and get within a Florida recount of winning the EC. He was also a Senator from Tennessee and was a centrist with President Bill Clinton in the White House so can't be tarred with the coastal liberal tag.

    Gore is also 2 years younger than Trump and 5 years younger than Biden
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,718
    kinabalu said:

    Clooney?

    I think Rosemary Clooney is dead. She was good in White Christmas but not president material.
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