There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked. I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
It is beyond stupid.
The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.
The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.
Emerson: President Biden: 46% Trump 43% Biden, 11% undecided Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/
You keep quoting this stuff and it is utterly meaningless. It is based on a theoretical situation not reality. If someone takes over from Biden then those percentages will change dramatically.
Currently if Biden is the candidate in November then Trump will win. We all know that. Just some people are too set in their ways to admit it.
Yep.
And those aren't going to be Biden's numbers once we get to the autumn and voters have to focus seriously on the campaign and who will be in WH for next FOUR years. Those numbers will be in freefall imho.
There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked. I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
It is beyond stupid.
The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.
The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.
Emerson: President Biden: 46% Trump 43% Biden, 11% undecided Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/
You keep quoting this stuff and it is utterly meaningless. It is based on a theoretical situation not reality. If someone takes over from Biden then those percentages will change dramatically.
Currently if Biden is the candidate in November then Trump will win. We all know that. Just some people are too set in their ways to admit it.
Yep.
And those aren't going to be Biden's numbers once we get to the autumn and voters have to focus seriously on the campaign and who will be in WH for next FOUR years. Those numbers will be in freefall imho.
Yes. They just need to calculate the following:
Is there a good chance Biden’s polling v Trump will fall from now to November.
Is there a good chance we can boost Harris’ polling before November.
There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
Would a President Biden in a coma on a life support machine be better than a compis mentis President Trump? 50% of Americans probably think so
Trump isn't compis mentis either.
I think it leads to a general WTF election.
That's the other elephant in the room, of course.
Doesn't matter exactly what's wrong with Biden, he's getting old enough that he's doddery enough that he really shouldn't be a candidate. But he's a doddery old bloke with decent instincts.
Whereas his opponent is a doddery old bloke with terrible instincts and a felony record and there's no question that his behaviour in January 2021 should rule him out of public life.
This ought to be obvious, but it isn't to the Republican Party.
There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked. I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
It is beyond stupid.
The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.
The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.
Emerson: President Biden: 46% Trump 43% Biden, 11% undecided Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/
You keep quoting this stuff and it is utterly meaningless. It is based on a theoretical situation not reality. If someone takes over from Biden then those percentages will change dramatically.
Currently if Biden is the candidate in November then Trump will win. We all know that. Just some people are too set in their ways to admit it.
Kamala is far closer to a Hillary Clinton than a Barack Obama.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 10m Had been rumours of a “Dream Ticket” between Tom Tugendhat and Priti Patel. But am told Priti is now running in her own right. As I said earlier in the year, she’s significantly underpriced.
Ok Springsteen then. The Rust Belt will decide this in November and he just IS the Rust Belt. Solid DEM credentials, plus he's a natural. He was Born to Run.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
But who, and how?
One of the downsides of the Spectator-Guido-GBNews right wing media ecosystem is that it needs Drama as its business model.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
But who, and how?
One of the downsides of the Spectator-Guido-GBNews right wing media ecosystem is that it needs Drama as its business model.
Cleverly or Hunt would be my picks.
I don't think the Spectator would be unreasonable.
There's something about good old fashioned leadership here: someone has to go out there and argue their case, and the core case has to be the Conservatives restore their reputation as pragmatic patriotic realists who are a safe pair of hands and a natural party of government.
We don't want to repeat the three-leader hat trick of last time before we get there all over again.
Ok Springsteen then. The Rust Belt will decide this in November and he just IS the Rust Belt. Solid DEM credentials, plus he's a natural. He was Born to Run.
You’re just dancing in the dark. You’ve no idea what he thinks about anything or even what he has thought about.
Ok Springsteen then. The Rust Belt will decide this in November and he just IS the Rust Belt. Solid DEM credentials, plus he's a natural. He was Born to Run.
Eligibility won't be an issue for him as he was born in the USA.
There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked. I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
It is beyond stupid.
The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.
The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.
Emerson: President Biden: 46% Trump 43% Biden, 11% undecided Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/
You keep quoting this stuff and it is utterly meaningless. It is based on a theoretical situation not reality. If someone takes over from Biden then those percentages will change dramatically.
Currently if Biden is the candidate in November then Trump will win. We all know that. Just some people are too set in their ways to admit it.
Yep.
And those aren't going to be Biden's numbers once we get to the autumn and voters have to focus seriously on the campaign and who will be in WH for next FOUR years. Those numbers will be in freefall imho.
The reason Biden doesn't think it matters is because he's up against Trump.
Doddery safe old fart beats narcissistic reckless psychopath.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
But who, and how?
One of the downsides of the Spectator-Guido-GBNews right wing media ecosystem is that it needs Drama as its business model.
Cleverly or Hunt would be my picks.
I don't think the Spectator would be unreasonable.
There's something about good old fashioned leadership here: someone has to go out there and argue their case, and the core case has to be the Conservatives restore their reputation as pragmatic patriotic realists who are a safe pair of hands and a natural party of government.
We don't want to repeat the three-leader hat trick of last time before we get there all over again.
I wouldn’t mind Hunt as Chairman as he’s intelligent and sensible enough to rip things up and reorganise CCHQ behind the scenes and ensure that at the next election they have the best possible candidates and some party discipline. He’s also measured if put up on the Today programme.
Geoffrey Cox as Chief Whip with a Licence to Bellow at naughty MPs.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
Ok Springsteen then. The Rust Belt will decide this in November and he just IS the Rust Belt. Solid DEM credentials, plus he's a natural. He was Born to Run.
You’re just dancing in the dark. You’ve no idea what he thinks about anything or even what he has thought about.
I wonder if Cameron creating A lists based on anatomical characteristics and foisting them on the membership is wholly unconnected with the dearth of talent in the Parliamentary Tory Party?
Ok Springsteen then. The Rust Belt will decide this in November and he just IS the Rust Belt. Solid DEM credentials, plus he's a natural. He was Born to Run.
You’re just dancing in the dark. You’ve no idea what he thinks about anything or even what he has thought about.
Has to be Whitmer. Midwest, popular, young etc
Not got dementia. You know all things a president should be
Ok Springsteen then. The Rust Belt will decide this in November and he just IS the Rust Belt. Solid DEM credentials, plus he's a natural. He was Born to Run.
You’re just dancing in the dark. You’ve no idea what he thinks about anything or even what he has thought about.
But how will Biden go down on the streets of Philadelphia?
The shenanigans regarding Biden remind me of big multi contractor construction projects where everyone knows it is running two years late but everyone pretends it isn't and is determined that they won't be the one holding the ball when the inevitable happens as they will cop the blame and a slew of liquidated damages.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 10m Had been rumours of a “Dream Ticket” between Tom Tugendhat and Priti Patel. But am told Priti is now running in her own right. As I said earlier in the year, she’s significantly underpriced.
Underpriced or overpriced? And whatever Dan means, which other prices does he think is wrong? You can't look at one price in isolation. As heads becomes more likely, tails becomes less likely.
What a load of tosh. It would embarrass as a PB header.
To say it assumes facts not in evidence is to be generous. It’s just a splenetic recitation of what seems to be his own political grudges. If that’s one of our foremost public intellectuals, heaven help us.
John Gray is a man who is also suffering from mental decline.
There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked. I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
It is beyond stupid.
The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.
The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.
Emerson: President Biden: 46% Trump 43% Biden, 11% undecided Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/
You keep quoting this stuff and it is utterly meaningless. It is based on a theoretical situation not reality. If someone takes over from Biden then those percentages will change dramatically.
Currently if Biden is the candidate in November then Trump will win. We all know that. Just some people are too set in their ways to admit it.
Yep.
And those aren't going to be Biden's numbers once we get to the autumn and voters have to focus seriously on the campaign and who will be in WH for next FOUR years. Those numbers will be in freefall imho.
The reason Biden doesn't think it matters is because he's up against Trump.
Doddery safe old fart beats narcissistic reckless psychopath.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, I don't agree with that.
What members (and I believe voters want) is someone who dials down the rhetoric but actually delivers on their promises.
Twice as hard, but the opposite of what we've hitherto had.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
But who, and how?
One of the downsides of the Spectator-Guido-GBNews right wing media ecosystem is that it needs Drama as its business model.
Cleverly or Hunt would be my picks.
I don't think the Spectator would be unreasonable.
There's something about good old fashioned leadership here: someone has to go out there and argue their case, and the core case has to be the Conservatives restore their reputation as pragmatic patriotic realists who are a safe pair of hands and a natural party of government.
We don't want to repeat the three-leader hat trick of last time before we get there all over again.
Ok Springsteen then. The Rust Belt will decide this in November and he just IS the Rust Belt. Solid DEM credentials, plus he's a natural. He was Born to Run.
Eligibility won't be an issue for him as he was born in the USA.
Skeletons in closet though. Wife and kids in Baltimore didn't stop him getting Mary pregnant. Suburban women won't like that.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, I don't agree with that.
What members (and I believe voters want) is someone who dials down the rhetoric but actually delivers on their promises.
Twice as hard, but the opposite of what we've hitherto had.
I think sorting out the wider party will be every bit as vital as who is the leader though.
I don’t know if it’s legally possible but maybe a contract with MPs and candidates where if they break the law once elected they have to repay party funding might focus minds.
There must never be a fiasco like the Mayor of London selection again. Someone like hunt if chair should have a solid team vetting the crap out of and interviewing and testing any potential candidate for office.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
Starmer only got the job after the Labour party shifted consistently left after Blair left to Brown, Ed Miliband and finally Corbyn.
Sunak is at most only the Tory Brown equivalent Tory members haven't even had the chance to elect their Ed Miliband yet let alone their Corbyn
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
But who, and how?
One of the downsides of the Spectator-Guido-GBNews right wing media ecosystem is that it needs Drama as its business model.
The business model is unproven, though, particularly without the hope/perception/reality of government influence/contracts/kickbacks.
Like, last time I tuned in to the Spiked micro-verse, Brendan o'Neill appeared to have been purchased, presumably for not very much money, by some nutritional supplement people. It's beyond embarrassing. I can't believe he'd be doing it out of choice.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Was thinking about the idea of moving Biden to the West Wing set and telling him he’s still president and thought it would be quite a fun series for Ianucci and co to do.
A slightly senile leader who is shifted sideways and the shenanigans involved in carrying on the pretence to him and keeping the reality from the public.
There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked. I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
It is beyond stupid.
The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.
The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.
Emerson: President Biden: 46% Trump 43% Biden, 11% undecided Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/
You keep quoting this stuff and it is utterly meaningless. It is based on a theoretical situation not reality. If someone takes over from Biden then those percentages will change dramatically.
Currently if Biden is the candidate in November then Trump will win. We all know that. Just some people are too set in their ways to admit it.
Except they won't, Trump will get his 45-50% whoever the Democrat candidate is and it is perfectly possible a Democratic alternative to Biden could end up doing worse and turning off rustbelt swing voters he won last time
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
The problem is the media, the Tories have a gang of competing media groups pushing them to the right in a way that Starmer just didnt face. Owen Jones et al are far easier to ignore than the Mail, Express, Telegraph and GBeebies.
I wonder if Cameron creating A lists based on anatomical characteristics and foisting them on the membership is wholly unconnected with the dearth of talent in the Parliamentary Tory Party?
The A-list was a list of sycophants, celebrities and proto-Wokery. Because Osborne/Cameron, and mainly the former, were trying to emulate Blair.
Adam Rickitt was a near miss. I remember an awful lot of fuss being made about him at the time. He totally denounced the party by 2014.
Debbonaire and Jonathan Ashworth were two of the Labour MPs who annoyed me the most whenever they appeared on TV. Delighted they got voted out. Two rare bright spots from Thursday.
I wonder if Cameron creating A lists based on anatomical characteristics and foisting them on the membership is wholly unconnected with the dearth of talent in the Parliamentary Tory Party?
The A-list was a list of sycophants, celebrities and proto-Wokery. Because Osborne/Cameron, and mainly the former, were trying to emulate Blair.
Adam Rickitt was a near miss. I remember an awful lot of fuss being made about him at the time. He totally denounced the party by 2014.
Adam R could really have put the Tat back into Tatton, he now runs quite a good gin bar in Knutsford with his wife
There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked. I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
It is beyond stupid.
The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.
The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.
Emerson: President Biden: 46% Trump 43% Biden, 11% undecided Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/
You keep quoting this stuff and it is utterly meaningless. It is based on a theoretical situation not reality. If someone takes over from Biden then those percentages will change dramatically.
Currently if Biden is the candidate in November then Trump will win. We all know that. Just some people are too set in their ways to admit it.
Except they won't, Trump will get his 45-50% whoever the Democrat candidate is and it is perfectly possible a Democratic alternative to Biden could end up doing worse and turning off rustbelt swing voters he won last time
They might. They might not. But comparing trump to a person who isn't the candidate currently is meaningless. The percentages will change as soon as someone becomes a candidate.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
Is there a younger version of David Davis in the ranks?
Was thinking about the idea of moving Biden to the West Wing set and telling him he’s still president and thought it would be quite a fun series for Ianucci and co to do.
A slightly senile leader who is shifted sideways and the shenanigans involved in carrying on the pretence to him and keeping the reality from the public.
Whereas the Tories have given us the opposite. A ridiculous series of PMs and dramas such that the audience worry that we must be the next Truman Berbank in a sequel.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
But who, and how?
One of the downsides of the Spectator-Guido-GBNews right wing media ecosystem is that it needs Drama as its business model.
The business model is unproven, though, particularly without the hope/perception/reality of government influence/contracts/kickbacks.
Like, last time I tuned in to the Spiked micro-verse, Brendan o'Neill appeared to have been purchased, presumably for not very much money, by some nutritional supplement people. It's beyond embarrassing. I can't believe he'd be doing it out of choice.
I think we're at the end of an era.
Guido Fawkes was omnipresent in the late 2000s. Then something happened in May 2010 and Stain didn't care much about anti-government muckraking any more. "Muckraking" is charitable, often it was smears like Gordon Brown being too mentally ill to be PM.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Even Kinnock only got the Labour leadership after hard left Foot had been Leader of the Opposition and lost by a landslide in 1983
Was thinking about the idea of moving Biden to the West Wing set and telling him he’s still president and thought it would be quite a fun series for Ianucci and co to do.
A slightly senile leader who is shifted sideways and the shenanigans involved in carrying on the pretence to him and keeping the reality from the public.
Whereas the Tories have given us the opposite. A ridiculous series of PMs and dramas such that the audience worry that we must be the next Truman Berbank in a sequel.
Plenty of time for Labour psychodramas to arise. Not even a week in yet.
I wonder if Cameron creating A lists based on anatomical characteristics and foisting them on the membership is wholly unconnected with the dearth of talent in the Parliamentary Tory Party?
The A-list was a list of sycophants, celebrities and proto-Wokery. Because Osborne/Cameron, and mainly the former, were trying to emulate Blair.
Adam Rickitt was a near miss. I remember an awful lot of fuss being made about him at the time. He totally denounced the party by 2014.
Adam R could really have put the Tat back into Tatton, he now runs quite a good gin bar in Knutsford with his wife
He was picked because he was young, gay, blonde and from Coronation Street.
Debbonaire and Jonathan Ashworth were two of the Labour MPs who annoyed me the most whenever they appeared on TV. Delighted they got voted out. Two rare bright spots from Thursday.
A considerable number of others remain though....
Green Carla won by a majority of ≈ 10K. The census shows there were 5K people who declared as Muslim in Bristol Central.
Even if every one of them voted Green because of Gaza (which seems highly unlikely) there would still be another 5K to find.
What a load of tosh. It would embarrass as a PB header.
To say it assumes facts not in evidence is to be generous. It’s just a splenetic recitation of what seems to be his own political grudges. If that’s one of our foremost public intellectuals, heaven help us.
Yes. He risks turning into the thinking person's Theodore Dalrymple, which is sad, for he is much better then that.
It's a bit of curse of the post-Christian society among some western intellectuals that, like Gray they have enough Christianity - that cultural version which they are so fond of - to believe in the dire and fallen state of man but not enough to see a path to redemption.
Why? If it is what he believes in he would be a hypocrite to do otherwise. The SDLP leader did likewise. I'm sure there were others who did the same.
Because it's hugely twattish. Everyone swears an oath to the state or head of state. If you want to change the system you make the argument elsewhere. Man's a preening narcissist.
It'd be like Rishi Sunak saying, before he read at the King's coronation, that whilst he's about to read out something from the Bible he doesn't agree with it because he's a Hindu.
His colleague, Claire Hanna prefaced her oath with "In friendship and in hope of a reconciled new Ireland, my allegiance is to the people of Belfast South and Mid Down. I say these words in order to serve them." (in both Irish and English)
Vastly preferable to doing the crossing-your-fingers thing that some do, IMHO.
Debbonaire and Jonathan Ashworth were two of the Labour MPs who annoyed me the most whenever they appeared on TV. Delighted they got voted out. Two rare bright spots from Thursday.
A considerable number of others remain though....
Green Carla won by a majority of ≈ 10K. The census shows there were 5K people who declared as Muslim in Bristol Central.
Even if every one of them voted Green because of Gaza (which seems highly unlikely) there would still be another 5K to find.
It's much more likely to be an advance party of the kind of seat that went Lib Dem in 2005-10; a bit Muslim, but more so student, academic and associated jobless hangers on in the arts and drugs trades.
Why? If it is what he believes in he would be a hypocrite to do otherwise. The SDLP leader did likewise. I'm sure there were others who did the same.
Because it's hugely twattish. Everyone swears an oath to the state or head of state. If you want to change the system you make the argument elsewhere. Man's a preening narcissist.
It'd be like Rishi Sunak saying, before he read at the King's coronation, that whilst he's about to read out something from the Bible he doesn't agree with it because he's a Hindu.
Why? If it is what he believes in he would be a hypocrite to do otherwise. The SDLP leader did likewise. I'm sure there were others who did the same.
Because it's hugely twattish. Everyone swears an oath to the state or head of state. If you want to change the system you make the argument elsewhere. Man's a preening narcissist.
It'd be like Rishi Sunak saying, before he read at the King's coronation, that whilst he's about to read out something from the Bible he doesn't agree with it because he's a Hindu.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Even Kinnock only got the leadership after hard left Foot had been Leader of the Opposition and lost by a landslide in 1983
Post-Truss, I put the odds on the Conservatives disappearing as a meaningful electoral force within a decade at 4/1, and their chance of ever again achieving a majority at Evens.
20% & 50%
I think those odds are still about right.
Sunak & Co did enough to avoid wipeout. Farage did ok, but should/could have done a lot better.
Starmer has quite a lot of power in this parliament, to shape his opposition.
Arguably it's within his power whether or not to save the Conservative party.
There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked. I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
It is beyond stupid.
The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.
The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.
Emerson: President Biden: 46% Trump 43% Biden, 11% undecided Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/
You keep quoting this stuff and it is utterly meaningless. It is based on a theoretical situation not reality. If someone takes over from Biden then those percentages will change dramatically.
Currently if Biden is the candidate in November then Trump will win. We all know that. Just some people are too set in their ways to admit it.
Except they won't, Trump will get his 45-50% whoever the Democrat candidate is and it is perfectly possible a Democratic alternative to Biden could end up doing worse and turning off rustbelt swing voters he won last time
No, Trump beats Biden, no ifs no buts. If you don't want Trump to win and smash up America and the World, you try someone else. Anyone else.
Why? If it is what he believes in he would be a hypocrite to do otherwise. The SDLP leader did likewise. I'm sure there were others who did the same.
Because it's hugely twattish. Everyone swears an oath to the state or head of state. If you want to change the system you make the argument elsewhere. Man's a preening narcissist.
It'd be like Rishi Sunak saying, before he read at the King's coronation, that whilst he's about to read out something from the Bible he doesn't agree with it because he's a Hindu.
Nobody swears an oath to Ivanka Trump, though.
Why would they, she’s never even been First Lady.
Or run the government. Or, as may currently be happening, both. But the idea of pledging faithful service to Don Jr or Ivanka and their heirs and successors is about as dopey as swearing loyalty to Prince Andrew if the event arises.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Why? If it is what he believes in he would be a hypocrite to do otherwise. The SDLP leader did likewise. I'm sure there were others who did the same.
Because it's hugely twattish. Everyone swears an oath to the state or head of state. If you want to change the system you make the argument elsewhere. Man's a preening narcissist.
It'd be like Rishi Sunak saying, before he read at the King's coronation, that whilst he's about to read out something from the Bible he doesn't agree with it because he's a Hindu.
Difference surely being that Sunak could have declined to read at the King's coronation and still keep his job; Lewis had no such option.
I watched Suella's Nat Con speech. It was OK. There's an interesting parting of ways emerging with her and Truss's diagnosis of the issues plaguing British politics. Suella is very scornful of the blaming of 'the blob' for creeping wokism and the thwarting of right wing policies, and lays the blame squarely at the feet of centrist Tories (largely Sunk). Truss's version is very different - she says she believed as a Minister that it was all due to the lack of political will, but her experiences once inside Number 10 showed her that it wasn't that - that the administrative state operated just as effectively to thwart right wing policies at Prime Ministerial level as they did at Ministerial level.
Obviously it doesn't have to be either/or - both are true, but I give Truss's account of the blob more credence, because she experienced life as a frustrated right wing Minister and Prime Minister.
Was thinking about the idea of moving Biden to the West Wing set and telling him he’s still president and thought it would be quite a fun series for Ianucci and co to do.
A slightly senile leader who is shifted sideways and the shenanigans involved in carrying on the pretence to him and keeping the reality from the public.
Whereas the Tories have given us the opposite. A ridiculous series of PMs and dramas such that the audience worry that we must be the next Truman Berbank in a sequel.
Plenty of time for Labour psychodramas to arise. Not even a week in yet.
Angela and Rachel are worth watching... And the often overly-emotional Wes.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Even Kinnock only got the leadership after hard left Foot had been Leader of the Opposition and lost by a landslide in 1983
Post-Truss, I put the odds on the Conservatives disappearing as a meaningful electoral force within a decade at 4/1, and their chance of ever again achieving a majority at Evens.
20% & 50%
I think those odds are still about right.
Sunak & Co did enough to avoid wipeout. Farage did ok, but should/could have done a lot better.
Starmer has quite a lot of power in this parliament, to shape his opposition.
Arguably it's within his power whether or not to save the Conservative party.
Interesting times.
Given that things got worse every time the man opened his daft gob, I think you mean 'Sunak and Co. didn't do quite enough to acheive a total wipeout.' Sadly for the other parties the campaign had a finite length.
Nottingham’s tram network still hopes to expand but bosses believe any extension is now at least 14 years away. A route to Gedling is one of the most likely options – but at least a decade of planning and negotiation will be needed, a meeting was told on Tuesday
10 years for planning?!!! No wonder we have appalling productivity and can't seem to deliver infrastructure.
Jennifer Williams @JenWilliams_FT · 1h Only just clocked that Angela Rayner is going to be working out of a ministerial base in Manchester some of the time 👍
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Jennifer Williams @JenWilliams_FT · 1h Only just clocked that Angela Rayner is going to be working out of a ministerial base in Manchester some of the time 👍
At least she is used to juggling living in two places at once.
Jennifer Williams @JenWilliams_FT · 1h Only just clocked that Angela Rayner is going to be working out of a ministerial base in Manchester some of the time 👍
At least she is used to juggling living in two places at once.
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Clearly you haven’t studied Ashcroft’s exit poll. The Tories lost more 2019 voters to the opposition parties of the left than they did to Reform.
Yougov has 25% of 2019 Conservative voters voting Reform in 2024 to only 10% of 2019 Conservative voters switching to Labour and just 7% to the LDs and 2% to the Greens
Even on that poll, its 25% plays 22%, which is hardly decisive. And your friend Lord A has the balance tilted marginally the other way. The best we can say is that the number of former Tories splitting right and splitting left appear to have been pretty similar.
There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked. I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
It is beyond stupid.
The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.
The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.
Emerson: President Biden: 46% Trump 43% Biden, 11% undecided Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/
You keep quoting this stuff and it is utterly meaningless. It is based on a theoretical situation not reality. If someone takes over from Biden then those percentages will change dramatically.
Currently if Biden is the candidate in November then Trump will win. We all know that. Just some people are too set in their ways to admit it.
Kamala is far closer to a Hillary Clinton than a Barack Obama.
Swing states would hate her.
Far closer?
Well they are both women, there's that. But Kamala and Barack are both brown. All three are experienced and bright. Kamala isn't as articulate as Barak but she is more likeable than Hillary.
Hillary would have won the rust states is she wasn't so complacent. Kamala won't be complacent.
I don't see why swing states would hate her. Any evidence?
There’s some good money to be made day trading that market at the moment, following the ups and downs of a party and media elite tearing itself apart.
I think it's almost inevitable that Biden goes now. The only question is when it happens.
Unless another Democrat starts polling significantly better v Trump than Biden does and is willing to run and challenge Biden at the convention it certainly isn't
Every time Biden goes up on stage, he will perform a little bit worse, because that is the nature of mental decline. And Americans are not electing a President to take them through to Christmas, they are electing one who is expected to be compis mentis through to the end of 2028.
The comparison with even the video reel of him the White House released in February is quite marked. I’m fairly sure he’s capable of discharging the duties of his office for the next four months - but four years ? No.
It is beyond stupid.
The Dems are condemning the rest of the world to Trump 2.0 chaos and danger because they don't want to upset an old man and his stupidly ambitious wife.
The NY Times opinion writers and board all have it right.
Emerson: President Biden: 46% Trump 43% Biden, 11% undecided Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-national-poll-trump-46-biden-43/
You keep quoting this stuff and it is utterly meaningless. It is based on a theoretical situation not reality. If someone takes over from Biden then those percentages will change dramatically.
Currently if Biden is the candidate in November then Trump will win. We all know that. Just some people are too set in their ways to admit it.
Except they won't, Trump will get his 45-50% whoever the Democrat candidate is and it is perfectly possible a Democratic alternative to Biden could end up doing worse and turning off rustbelt swing voters he won last time
No, Trump beats Biden, no ifs no buts. If you don't want Trump to win and smash up America and the World, you try someone else. Anyone else.
Over 10% of voters in Trump v Biden polls are undecided, most of them voted Biden in 2020, where they go decides the election
"The problem the Tories have is that they are ridiculously addicted to Drama. I think because of all of the bonkersness that they foisted on the country since 2016. They just love this stuff. The squabbles, the leaking, the arguments, the recriminations. They can’t get enough of it.
They run the party like a soap opera. Until they realise that people are really not very impressed with this sh*t, to put it bluntly, then they are not going to recover.
The fact Badenoch has waded in to the latest Drama does not bode well if she becomes leader."
This. At present, I'm inclined to vote against both.
I want a grown-up who stamps this culture out.
You need a Keir Starmer. Con the members with some juicy right wing rhetoric, become leader, then execute The Project - of becoming serious, moderate and electable again.
No, they need a Kinnock.
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
The Tories haven't even got to the right yet, Sunak and Hunt were the centrist candidates against Truss and Boris remember!
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Even Kinnock only got the leadership after hard left Foot had been Leader of the Opposition and lost by a landslide in 1983
Post-Truss, I put the odds on the Conservatives disappearing as a meaningful electoral force within a decade at 4/1, and their chance of ever again achieving a majority at Evens.
20% & 50%
I think those odds are still about right.
Sunak & Co did enough to avoid wipeout. Farage did ok, but should/could have done a lot better.
Starmer has quite a lot of power in this parliament, to shape his opposition.
Arguably it's within his power whether or not to save the Conservative party.
Interesting times.
If he trashes the economy and increases taxes and immigration he will revive the Tories quicker than Lazarus, yes
I wonder if Cameron creating A lists based on anatomical characteristics and foisting them on the membership is wholly unconnected with the dearth of talent in the Parliamentary Tory Party?
The A-list was a list of sycophants, celebrities and proto-Wokery. Because Osborne/Cameron, and mainly the former, were trying to emulate Blair.
Adam Rickitt was a near miss. I remember an awful lot of fuss being made about him at the time. He totally denounced the party by 2014.
Adam R could really have put the Tat back into Tatton, he now runs quite a good gin bar in Knutsford with his wife
He was picked because he was young, gay, blonde and from Coronation Street.
That was basically it.
God, I remember on the old Dr Who forum Outpost Gallifry a guy who was obsessed with Madam Rickitt and used to write endless, poor,,fan fiction with him as the Drs companion.
Comments
And those aren't going to be Biden's numbers once we get to the autumn and voters have to focus seriously on the campaign and who will be in WH for next FOUR years. Those numbers will be in freefall imho.
He told him his Dad was a Toolmaker
Bidens eyes appeared to glaze over
Is there a good chance Biden’s polling v Trump will fall from now to November.
Is there a good chance we can boost Harris’ polling before November.
Yes and Yes so the answer is there really.
Doesn't matter exactly what's wrong with Biden, he's getting old enough that he's doddery enough that he really shouldn't be a candidate. But he's a doddery old bloke with decent instincts.
Whereas his opponent is a doddery old bloke with terrible instincts and a felony record and there's no question that his behaviour in January 2021 should rule him out of public life.
This ought to be obvious, but it isn't to the Republican Party.
Swing states would hate her.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
10m
Had been rumours of a “Dream Ticket” between Tom Tugendhat and Priti Patel. But am told Priti is now running in her own right. As I said earlier in the year, she’s significantly underpriced.
One of the downsides of the Spectator-Guido-GBNews right wing media ecosystem is that it needs Drama as its business model.
Speaker Pelosi tells me Biden can win
She says she won’t make comments in the hallway about “the fate of our nation”
When I asked if Biden should run she said
“Am I speaking English to you? I’m not going to be making any statements about any of that right now in the hallway..”
I don't think the Spectator would be unreasonable.
There's something about good old fashioned leadership here: someone has to go out there and argue their case, and the core case has to be the Conservatives restore their reputation as pragmatic patriotic realists who are a safe pair of hands and a natural party of government.
We don't want to repeat the three-leader hat trick of last time before we get there all over again.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/02/02/one-in-four-meps-are-implicated-in-judicial-cases-or-scandals_6486917_8.html
Up there with MP's expenses for scale.
Can't stand her.
Doddery safe old fart beats narcissistic reckless psychopath.
I think she will convince him to quit
Geoffrey Cox as Chief Whip with a Licence to Bellow at naughty MPs.
Thought they were good in 1996. Amazing.
Now, I'm like "meh" and realise they can't really sing.
What members (and I believe voters want) is someone who dials down the rhetoric but actually delivers on their promises.
Twice as hard, but the opposite of what we've hitherto had.
It's a pity he lost. I don't like him overmuch but I think he could the job. He's certainly the best of the people I've seen.
Clive Lewis MP
@labourlewis
To be sworn in as an MP, you have to make an oath to the King.
This is what I decided to say, in protest.
https://x.com/labourlewis/status/1811047794813149231
I don’t know if it’s legally possible but maybe a contract with MPs and candidates where if they break the law once elected they have to repay party funding might focus minds.
There must never be a fiasco like the Mayor of London selection again. Someone like hunt if chair should have a solid team vetting the crap out of and interviewing and testing any potential candidate for office.
Sunak is at most only the Tory Brown equivalent Tory members haven't even had the chance to elect their Ed Miliband yet let alone their Corbyn
Like, last time I tuned in to the Spiked micro-verse, Brendan o'Neill appeared to have been purchased, presumably for not very much money, by some nutritional supplement people. It's beyond embarrassing. I can't believe he'd be doing it out of choice.
I think we're at the end of an era.
Lots of undecideds still and even against Biden Trump polling no better than he did in 2020 just Independents are unsure who went Biden last time
Someone from the right, who is bold enough and bad enough to take the right on, tell them straight that they can’t continue living on Fantasy Island, and to be tough with those who won’t play ball.
Now that must narrow the field. Who’s left?
A slightly senile leader who is shifted sideways and the shenanigans involved in carrying on the pretence to him and keeping the reality from the public.
Adam Rickitt was a near miss. I remember an awful lot of fuss being made about him at the time. He totally denounced the party by 2014.
A considerable number of others remain though....
They also lost far more voters to Reform on July 4th than to Labour and the LDs. Most Conservative members and indeed many Tory MPs want some rightwing red meat now.
Even Kinnock only got the Labour leadership after hard left Foot had been Leader of the Opposition and lost by a landslide in 1983
That was basically it.
Even if every one of them voted Green because of Gaza (which seems highly unlikely) there would still be another 5K to find.
It's a bit of curse of the post-Christian society among some western intellectuals that, like Gray they have enough Christianity - that cultural version which they are so fond of - to believe in the dire and fallen state of man but not enough to see a path to redemption.
It'd be like Rishi Sunak saying, before he read at the King's coronation, that whilst he's about to read out something from the Bible he doesn't agree with it because he's a Hindu.
His colleague, Claire Hanna prefaced her oath with "In friendship and in hope of a reconciled new Ireland, my allegiance is to the people of Belfast South and Mid Down. I say these words in order to serve them." (in both Irish and English)
Vastly preferable to doing the crossing-your-fingers thing that some do, IMHO.
20% & 50%
I think those odds are still about right.
Sunak & Co did enough to avoid wipeout. Farage did ok, but should/could have done a lot better.
Starmer has quite a lot of power in this parliament, to shape his opposition.
Arguably it's within his power whether or not to save the Conservative party.
Interesting times.
Obviously it doesn't have to be either/or - both are true, but I give Truss's account of the blob more credence, because she experienced life as a frustrated right wing Minister and Prime Minister.
And a view on YT is someone deliberately clicking and then watching at least 30 seconds
Notts TV
@Notts_TV
Nottingham’s tram network still hopes to expand but bosses believe any extension is now at least 14 years away.
A route to Gedling is one of the most likely options – but at least a decade of planning and negotiation will be needed, a meeting was told on Tuesday
10 years for planning?!!! No wonder we have appalling productivity and can't seem to deliver infrastructure.
Jennifer Williams
@JenWilliams_FT
·
1h
Only just clocked that Angela Rayner is going to be working out of a ministerial base in Manchester some of the time 👍
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49978-how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-general-election
https://victoriancommons.wordpress.com/2023/10/23/quakers-in-the-commons-joseph-pease-and-the-right-to-affirm/
Well they are both women, there's that.
But Kamala and Barack are both brown.
All three are experienced and bright.
Kamala isn't as articulate as Barak but she is more likeable than Hillary.
Hillary would have won the rust states is she wasn't so complacent. Kamala won't be complacent.
I don't see why swing states would hate her. Any evidence?
I'm confident LAFC will be able to hold off New Mexico United, but it might be surprisingly tough.
Awful. Almost as bad as Rickitts pop career.