Result of the night will be Jeremy Corbyn winning Islington North and if our man on the spot is right about four official canvass visits, Labour is worried about it too.
I don't see how a MRP can predict an individual instead of a party, without doing a local poll
MRPs weight demographic and historical factors of the constituency but do not consider peculiar local factors, such as a beloved former leader standing.
Local factors are MRPs' universal get-out clause because, after the fact, it will always be possible to find some local quirk about the council or hospital or cycle lanes to explain away a failed prediction.
Tactical voting was in vogue when the election was called but all seems to have gone quiet on that front, presumably as the Mrs S has already been round to measure the curtains. A lack of tactical voting might save a few Conservatives in 3-way marginals.
(And it has been suggested Mrs Starmer would rather live in their current house than move into the Downing Street flat.)
1. There's a late swing from Reform and Don't Know > Conservatives happening, IMO. But as Con are so far behind it's too little too late to save them from catastrophe.
Hi, you may well be right but that poll doesn’t show that. If you want to make a claim about the slight swing in that one it’s from Con to Reform:
Lab n/c Con -3 Reform +3
No, Con are +3 and Ref -3 on last Whitestone Insight poll?
Lol forgive me. Right idea wrong + -
In my defence I’ve just awoken from a heavy slumber as I’m trying to get my body clock into rhythm for tomorrow night
Will the safest seat after the GE for the Tories still be South Holland and the Deepings ?
Here's the safest Tory seat from a few models
East Grinstead and Uckfield - EC Rutland and Stamford - YG East Surrey - NS North Dorset - IPSOS East Grinstead and Uckfield - Savanta Maldon - Focaldata Hinckley and Bosworth - MiC Beaconsfield - Focaldata
“By dragging his party back to the centre ground of British politics for the first time since Tony Blair was in NO10, Sir Keir has won the right to take charge"
Will the safest seat after the GE for the Tories still be South Holland and the Deepings ?
Here's the safest Tory seat from a few models
East Grinstead and Uckfield - EC Rutland and Stamford - YG East Surrey North Dorset East Grinstead and Uckfield Maldon Hinckley and Bosworth Beaconsfield
North Dorset looks flakey for the Tories to me, because... reasons. I think the LDs could pinch this one.
Will the safest seat after the GE for the Tories still be South Holland and the Deepings ?
Here's the safest Tory seat from a few models
East Grinstead and Uckfield - EC Rutland and Stamford - YG East Surrey - NS North Dorset - IPSOS East Grinstead and Uckfield - Savanta Maldon - Focaldata Hinckley and Bosworth - MiC Beaconsfield - Focaldata
Weird, because if you scan other MRPs a fair few of those are forecast to be lost, or at least at risk
scanning the More in Common seat projections, the most remarkable seat I can see is Frome and East Somerset, where the LDs are projected to win with 22% of the vote!
Conservative: 21% Labour: 22% Liberal Democrat: 22% Green Party: 15% Reform UK: 18% SNP: 0% Plaid Cymru: 0% Other: 2%
Lab 39% Con 23% LD 14% Ref 13% Grn 6% SNP 2% PC 1%
More in Common appears the outlier so far today with only 13% for Reform. Other pollsters are going 16% - 18%. This disparity really moves the numbers.
I think this the key MiC tweet is this one, 99 seats are a toss up:
If the Tories lose all of the seats that we project lean/too close to call they would be left with as few as 78 seats, if they win them all their total would sit at 177, barely above their 1997 result. In short we do not consider it so unlikely the Tories end up sub 100 seats.
If you KNOW the Tories are doomed, so voting for them is pointless, how does that effect voters psychologically?
Let's say you're normally a Tory voter, in a seat the Tories probably cannot win. Why bother voting Tory? You may as well go for Reform to send a message
Reform could stack up a vast number of votes in places where neither they or the Tories have a chance
One might ague that this is the case in virtually each and every election where there is a clear leader and an underdog - but in the main G.E.s don't work that way, the majority clearly vote based on their personal convictions. not out of spite, revenge or whatever.
Yes, it's absolutely hilarious - it doesn't even approach being a lukewarm endorsement of Labour. It screams: "We hate Labour but they're going to win, sadly".
My favourite bit: The Tories allowed a Work From Home civil service "blob", activist quangos and human rights lawyers and judges to run rings around them, thwarting sensible policies. Illegal and legal immigration have not been kept under control.
Average UKIP vote was around 20% across Blyth Valley and Ashington in 2015, on the national UKIP vote of 12.6%.
So, assuming that UKIP and Reform map similarly, a 16% Reform vote would map to around a 23-27% vote share in Blyth this time out.
Blyth might be the first seat to declare, so the first two hours will be talk about how RefUk is going to exceed expectations, and then they will fade as the votes elsewhere come in... Worth knowing from a betting perspective
If you KNOW the Tories are doomed, so voting for them is pointless, how does that effect voters psychologically?
Let's say you're normally a Tory voter, in a seat the Tories probably cannot win. Why bother voting Tory? You may as well go for Reform to send a message
Reform could stack up a vast number of votes in places where neither they or the Tories have a chance
Yup. The psychology of voting is absolutely a factor.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
If you KNOW the Tories are doomed, so voting for them is pointless, how does that effect voters psychologically?
Let's say you're normally a Tory voter, in a seat the Tories probably cannot win. Why bother voting Tory? You may as well go for Reform to send a message
Reform could stack up a vast number of votes in places where neither they or the Tories have a chance
People who might vote Reform: - Disgruntled ex-Tories - Those who never voted before voting No in the Referendum - Those who only ever voted Labour but are in fact quite right wing and only voted Labour through tribal antipathy to Tories
These three are the core vote, to which I would add:
- Contrarians (the none-of-the-aboves – who might previously have voted Lib Dem, or Green, or anything) - People who are at best ambivalent about Reform or its policies or Nigel Farage but who see a vote for Reform as a vote against immigration - People who are at best ambivalent about Reform or its policies or Nigel Farage but who see a vote for Reform as a vote against woke - Edgelords
None of whom are to be underestimated. Lastly, there are:
- Genuine racists i.e. BNP types - Enthusiasts for Putin
Neither of whom I think are statistically significant because I don’t believe either of them are statistically significant in the population at large.
But collectively, that’s quite a lot of people who COULD fall into the Reform camp, and probably the most unpredictable section of the electorate. No wonder the Reform polling is all over the place.
I've had a look at this latest More in Common MRP as they are kind enough to have a nice hovery map where you can easily see any seat.
It is MUCH worse for the Tories than it looks. In seat after seat after seat you can see where only a bit of tactical voting pushes the Tory out. MRP is trying to catch this but I suspect is missing quite a lot of what is actually happening.
In my own seat I note that I will retain my deposit (good start) and will finish last. MRP shows 20% of people voting for a Labour candidate who isn't on the ballot. I am reasonably confident of taking much of that and at least beating Reform and notlabour. DRoss? Sunk, and frankly that's been obvious from the start. Today's FB piece by David Duguid really won't have helped...
Point of order, I've got my ballot right in front of me and it says "BROWN, Andy, Scottish Labour". I doubt most voters know he's suspended so it's enough that some of the waves from way down south will lap even these shores.
What's far more important is that they've done nothing locally.
I don't think you're coming last, FWIW. I sincerely hope you finish above the Tories, then I'll be happy with the election result whether or not you win.
Now go get all those waverers off their sofas and down to the school before 10pm tomorrow!
I've had enough people talk to me about him to know that most people know he's gone. Local news, national news, Facebook - its out there as it was in Rochdale. As you say, they don't exist locally anyway.
Andy has had the best campaign of any of us! He's a keen walker, and was out posting about walking trips before the scandal, and even more so after the scandal.
A lot of talk on here about Reform under-performing on the day, and that might well happen
But what if they out-perform? If a lot of young people (who seem Reform-minded) decide Feck it, I will vote.... that could be calamitous for the Tories (on top of their catastrophe, which is already baked in)
Or the night could start with Reform taking seats in the North East causing Labour to enter a state of total panic.
I think you could be half right. Reform will stack up decent amounts of votes in safe Labour seats without actually winning any of them. Labour will flatline in some of the early declarations I expect.
However it will not be a cause for panic because the flip side is that the Labour votes will be piling up in the marginals that will decide the election.
The MIC figures look pretty much what I’m expecting right now.
For all the sound and fury, I don’t think we’re going Tory sub-100. But we’re certainly going to a seismic and shocking result for the Tories.
Actually ordinary people who arent tuned in to the campaign will be utterly shocked by the tories going below 150 seats.
“Ordinary people” won’t know the difference between the tories having 150 or 250 seats so won’t be “shocked”.
its a meaningless number that makes no difference to their lives. It doesn’t change who is pm. All they will hear is talking heads saying how each party did it broad strokes
Biden will quit before the end of July, possibly much sooner than that
It's gonna be Kamala Harris
I think she could win the election quite easily, I don't know why Democrats are so afraid of he losing to Trump.
Yes, very possible
She has major downsides, she's not that bright, and she annoys a lot of people. She's obviously over-promoted
Against that she has two enormous advantages: she is not Donald Trump, and she is not Joe Biden
She will also get a feelgood vote for being a black woman
I think she's got a pretty good chance of beating Trump, whereas Demented Joe has ~0% chance
You know I'm not sure about the negatives - I think she's just done a relatively quiet vice-presidential job, and that the role has at least somewhat constrained her in living up to what some may have expected. What I've seen of her in recent interviews has been very good.
Can I just take a moment to point out where the Reform leaflet that just dropped through my door was printed? Were there no Great British Printers available?
I've had a look at this latest More in Common MRP as they are kind enough to have a nice hovery map where you can easily see any seat.
It is MUCH worse for the Tories than it looks. In seat after seat after seat you can see where only a bit of tactical voting pushes the Tory out. MRP is trying to catch this but I suspect is missing quite a lot of what is actually happening.
In my own seat I note that I will retain my deposit (good start) and will finish last. MRP shows 20% of people voting for a Labour candidate who isn't on the ballot. I am reasonably confident of taking much of that and at least beating Reform and notlabour. DRoss? Sunk, and frankly that's been obvious from the start. Today's FB piece by David Duguid really won't have helped...
FB piece? Linky please pretty please?
Edit: found it OK. Had forgotten it's not twatter. Sorry.
I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately
I will open a bottle of Californian Red.
I will not find out till next day so will be cup of tea PS Fairlie, I do hope Wishart , Nicholson and assorted other no users get rogered and confirm SNP is run by Duds, Swinney was useless 20 years ago and is worse now.
Losing central belt seats but retaining more rural seats should help. I suppose the idiot Blackman will hang on in Aberdeen N, though. Of course, any defeated Sturgeonites will be promoted to the top of the Holyrood lists in 2026.
Speaking of the sun heres the latest from Kelvin Mackenzie.
The Guardian says Labour candidates and activists are reporting that in the North West and Midlands “shy” Reformers are doing well with some forecasting less than 2,000 votes between the parties. Reform is said to be making good progress in two Oldham seats and at Leigh, Makerfield and Atherton. Bolsover, Sherwood Forest and Barnsley are heading Reform’s way. Labour is saying privately they expect to lose some seats to Reform. Why this is a surprise is beyond me. The North , with both Brexit and the Red Wall polling, has always been ahead of the curve. Labour have always embraced the minorities but have taken for granted ( or in Thornberry’s case despised) the white working class so I expect Reform to have a few surprises up there sleeve. 2:52 PM · Jul 3, 2024 · 5,406 Views
Hmm I suspect there’s a bit of expectation management going on there. Given there is a bit of polling evidence that Reform have been fading at the final corner I doubt Labour will have too great a problem with them.
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
"The president, who the ally emphasized is still deeply in the fight for re-election, understands that his next few appearances heading into the holiday weekend — including an interview scheduled for Friday with George Stephanopoulos of ABC News and campaign stops in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — must go well."
Hate to say it but the ABC News interview is the most important upcoming political event this week. I hope George Stephanopoulos is a combative interviewer
Gut feeling is the Reform thing is hype driven by the media and they will be lucky to get more than 2 seats. Let's not forget they are coming from a low base and this is first past the post and Labour are enjoying the shiny new alternative mantle, righty or wrongly.
They may rack up a lot of votes but inefficiently, with quite a few second and third places.
That's going on nothing but gut instinct from watching elections since 2005.
The Brexit referendum was special. This feels like a typical GE with mass indifference and a typical turnout, i.e. in the 60s.
In More in Common's MRP - which is much more optimistic on the Tories than other ones - they have Reform winning 2 seats but projected to be second place in 67 seats.
That's the thing about FPTP - you don't need much vote share to start squeaking through randomly in 4 way marginals.
Will the safest seat after the GE for the Tories still be South Holland and the Deepings ?
Here's the safest Tory seat from a few models
East Grinstead and Uckfield - EC Rutland and Stamford - YG East Surrey - NS North Dorset - IPSOS East Grinstead and Uckfield - Savanta Maldon - Focaldata Hinckley and Bosworth - MiC Beaconsfield - Focaldata
SH&TD I would expect returns a decent Reform figure.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
More in common has Plaid coming 4th in Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen). I know Carmarthen (won by Plaid in 2019) has had bits of Tory Pembrokeshire tacked on, but I still find that idea unrealistic....
Conservative: 17% Labour: 40% Liberal Democrat: 5% Green Party: 3% Reform UK: 22% SNP: 0% Plaid Cymru: 13% Other: 0%
Dog’s in a cone due to an eye infection, so he’s a bit grumpy. Hearing about all the Tories due to lose their seats tomorrow night isn’t cheering him up, sadly.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Biden will quit before the end of July, possibly much sooner than that
It's gonna be Kamala Harris
I think she could win the election quite easily, I don't know why Democrats are so afraid of he losing to Trump.
Yes, very possible
She has major downsides, she's not that bright, and she annoys a lot of people. She's obviously over-promoted
Against that she has two enormous advantages: she is not Donald Trump, and she is not Joe Biden
She will also get a feelgood vote for being a black woman
I think she's got a pretty good chance of beating Trump, whereas Demented Joe has ~0% chance
If she wins then the Indian diaspora will have produced children who have become PM of UK and Pres of the US and PM of Ireland. Not sure it means anything but quite pleasing anyway.
The question is whether Harris will become President this year. Can Biden credibly continue until January?
Surely he has to retire this summer so she becomes president, thus giving her more stature in the eyes of voters
But is Harris competent enough to be President. yes I know Joe Biden etc but prior to his health problems you couldnt say realistically Biden wasnt competent enough to be President.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
The other thing that's overlooked is that Portillo was the heir apparent to Thatcher - and Sunak has no obvious heirs apparent - not least of all because there will be a significant cull of potential candidates and the Tories are out of office for two terms at least.
In some ways it might be kinder for Sunak "to go down with the ship" - his reputation is in tatters what ever happens, and that would let him get on with his life.....the perils of having a politically inexperienced technocrat as PM.......oh dear.....
Biden will quit before the end of July, possibly much sooner than that
It's gonna be Kamala Harris
Biden won’t resign as President IMO.
If Harris becomes President now, the Republican house won’t confirm a VP as replacement - because should anything happen to Harris, Republican Speaker Mike Johnson would then be acting President.
They will let Biden serve out the rest of his term.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Unexpected has to be in there I think. There are also the implications. Sunak is on his way out and probably won't even be an MP in five years, even if he wins his seat this time. Portillo was one of the main contenders to be next Con leader.
Still a big moment if Sunak loses, but not on the scale of Portillo. Ed Balls losing his seat in 2015 is closer, probably.
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
"The president, who the ally emphasized is still deeply in the fight for re-election, understands that his next few appearances heading into the holiday weekend — including an interview scheduled for Friday with George Stephanopoulos of ABC News and campaign stops in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — must go well."
Hate to say it but the ABC News interview is the most important upcoming political event this week. I hope George Stephanopoulos is a combative interviewer
The headline implies Biden has a much lower chance of running than the main article does.
Biden will quit before the end of July, possibly much sooner than that
It's gonna be Kamala Harris
I think she could win the election quite easily, I don't know why Democrats are so afraid of he losing to Trump.
Yes, very possible
She has major downsides, she's not that bright, and she annoys a lot of people. She's obviously over-promoted
Against that she has two enormous advantages: she is not Donald Trump, and she is not Joe Biden
She will also get a feelgood vote for being a black woman
I think she's got a pretty good chance of beating Trump, whereas Demented Joe has ~0% chance
Someone said recently about Kamala: They thought she would be a female Obama. But she turned out to be a black Hillary. I hope they're wrong.
She is however neither senile nor mad. So really we ought to be seizing that with both hands.
Yes indeed. She can get good advisors, she'll do OK, she won't casually sacrifice Ukraine and she won't accidentally bomb Indonesia because she's demented
Let it be noted that is, also, democracy belatedly doing it job. Biden was exposed in a public debate he could not quite control (tho his team tried) and he was found very very wanting. Now the public and media pressure is forcing an insane POTUS to quit, as he should
That's how it is meant to work, that's what makes democracies superior, in the end (for all their many grievous flaws)
Dog’s in a cone due to an eye infection, so he’s a bit grumpy. Hearing about all the Tories due to lose their seats tomorrow night isn’t cheering him up, sadly.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Unexpected has to be in there I think. There are also the implications. Sunak is on his way out and probably won't even be an MP in five years, even if he wins his seat this time. Portillo was one of the main contenders to be next Con leader.
Still a big moment if Sunak loses, but not on the scale of Portillo. Ed Balls losing his seat in 2015 is closer, probably.
Will the safest seat after the GE for the Tories still be South Holland and the Deepings ?
Here's the safest Tory seat from a few models
East Grinstead and Uckfield - EC Rutland and Stamford - YG East Surrey - NS North Dorset - IPSOS East Grinstead and Uckfield - Savanta Maldon - Focaldata Hinckley and Bosworth - MiC Beaconsfield - Focaldata
No RefUK candidate in East Grinstead probably helps them there.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
"Captain Sir Tom Moore's daughter Hannah Ingram-Moore and her husband Colin have been disqualified from being charity trustees by the Charity Commission."
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
"The president, who the ally emphasized is still deeply in the fight for re-election, understands that his next few appearances heading into the holiday weekend — including an interview scheduled for Friday with George Stephanopoulos of ABC News and campaign stops in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — must go well."
Hate to say it but the ABC News interview is the most important upcoming political event this week. I hope George Stephanopoulos is a combative interviewer
IIRC George S is quite aggressive, which is what Biden needs, as you say
The worst outcome now is a patball interview where Biden can somehow pretend to be just-about-OK and then the hideous farce continues, and even worsens
Lab 39% Con 23% LD 14% Ref 13% Grn 6% SNP 2% PC 1%
More in Common appears the outlier so far today with only 13% for Reform. Other pollsters are going 16% - 18%. This disparity really moves the numbers.
Most of the MRP results are within the same ballpark imo, even if they don't look like that at first glance.
For a long time, Opinium tended to have the smallest Labour leads because of its methodology. On 24 May, after the GE was called, they had Labour on a 14pp lead. So this lead of 20 looks pretty significant to me.
All this proves is that Blair didn't need to court Murdoch in 1997.
The dead tree press had far more power back then.
This election has been notable (to me) for the lack of impact the railings of the Mail has had. 2024 is the social media election.
The Tory press, led by the Telegraph, has been all over the shop this election, trying any and every attack line, often contradictory, so that it comes across as panic and hysteria.
Speaking of the sun heres the latest from Kelvin Mackenzie.
The Guardian says Labour candidates and activists are reporting that in the North West and Midlands “shy” Reformers are doing well with some forecasting less than 2,000 votes between the parties. Reform is said to be making good progress in two Oldham seats and at Leigh, Makerfield and Atherton. Bolsover, Sherwood Forest and Barnsley are heading Reform’s way. Labour is saying privately they expect to lose some seats to Reform. Why this is a surprise is beyond me. The North , with both Brexit and the Red Wall polling, has always been ahead of the curve. Labour have always embraced the minorities but have taken for granted ( or in Thornberry’s case despised) the white working class so I expect Reform to have a few surprises up there sleeve. 2:52 PM · Jul 3, 2024 · 5,406 Views
Hmm I suspect there’s a bit of expectation management going on there. Given there is a bit of polling evidence that Reform have been fading at the final corner I doubt Labour will have too great a problem with them.
Labour will be feeding out stories about how various places are ‘close’ for sure. Get the media to do some knocking up for them.
Comments
Local factors are MRPs' universal get-out clause because, after the fact, it will always be possible to find some local quirk about the council or hospital or cycle lanes to explain away a failed prediction.
Through gritted fucking teeth!
(And it has been suggested Mrs Starmer would rather live in their current house than move into the Downing Street flat.)
Here's the safest Tory seat from a few models
East Grinstead and Uckfield - EC
Rutland and Stamford - YG
East Surrey - NS
North Dorset - IPSOS
East Grinstead and Uckfield - Savanta
Maldon - Focaldata
Hinckley and Bosworth - MiC
Beaconsfield - Focaldata
My extended family is quite political, by normal standards. We talk politics a fair bit, and it is reasonably well-informed
Yet almost none of them really have a grasp of what is potentially about to happen
(I'm not insulting them, they have busy lives, kids, and normal jobs)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czd9g7yzn4jo
BREAKING
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/general-election-2024/mrp-3-july/
It's gonna be Kamala Harris
The chances of the Conservatives ending up with 167 seats are now just as likely as the party finishing with 17."
https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1808497924847866115
Conservative: 21%
Labour: 22%
Liberal Democrat: 22%
Green Party: 15%
Reform UK: 18%
SNP: 0%
Plaid Cymru: 0%
Other: 2%
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1808504648501755954?t=mtFpM-eKtc_K0ctC7xV2dA&s=19
If the Tories lose all of the seats that we project lean/too close to call they would be left with as few as 78 seats, if they win them all their total would sit at 177, barely above their 1997 result. In short we do not consider it so unlikely the Tories end up sub 100 seats.
Average UKIP vote was around 20% across Blyth Valley and Wansbeck in 2015, on the national UKIP vote of 12.6%.
So, assuming that UKIP and Reform map similarly, a 16% Reform vote would map to around a 23-27% vote share in Blyth & Ashington this time out.
My favourite bit:
The Tories allowed a Work From Home civil service "blob", activist quangos and human rights lawyers and judges to run rings around them, thwarting sensible policies. Illegal and legal immigration have not been kept under control.
The full thing is well worth a read if you want a good laugh:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/its-time-for-a-change/
Appreciate we've got other things to think about here but it's a big shift.
• Con 21% (+1)
• Lab 41% (+1)
• Reform 17% (n/c)
• LD 11% (-2)
• Green 7% (+1)
• SNP 2% (-1)
Fieldwork: 1st – 3rd July. Changes from 26 - 28 June.
https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1808514736985686041
SNP, oh dear, what a shame....
She has major downsides, she's not that bright, and she annoys a lot of people. She's obviously over-promoted
Against that she has two enormous advantages: she is not Donald Trump, and she is not Joe Biden
She will also get a feelgood vote for being a black woman
I think she's got a pretty good chance of beating Trump, whereas Demented Joe has ~0% chance
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or
b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
- Disgruntled ex-Tories
- Those who never voted before voting No in the Referendum
- Those who only ever voted Labour but are in fact quite right wing and only voted Labour through tribal antipathy to Tories
These three are the core vote, to which I would add:
- Contrarians (the none-of-the-aboves – who might previously have voted Lib Dem, or Green, or anything)
- People who are at best ambivalent about Reform or its policies or Nigel Farage but who see a vote for Reform as a vote against immigration
- People who are at best ambivalent about Reform or its policies or Nigel Farage but who see a vote for Reform as a vote against woke
- Edgelords
None of whom are to be underestimated. Lastly, there are:
- Genuine racists i.e. BNP types
- Enthusiasts for Putin
Neither of whom I think are statistically significant because I don’t believe either of them are statistically significant in the population at large.
But collectively, that’s quite a lot of people who COULD fall into the Reform camp, and probably the most unpredictable section of the electorate. No wonder the Reform polling is all over the place.
Diet coke to help counter migraines as I’ll be on keyboard and tv screen. I never drink diet coke.
Also some Comté cheese with pitta and Ryvitas, olives, peppermint tea, special k bars
No alcohol because I don’t touch the stuff
Andy has had the best campaign of any of us! He's a keen walker, and was out posting about walking trips before the scandal, and even more so after the scandal.
🚨 Our final poll of the campaign points to a 20-point Labour lead:
• Con 21% (+1)
• Lab 41% (+1)
• Reform 17% (n/c)
• LD 11% (-2)
• Green 7% (+1)
• SNP 2% (-1)
Fieldwork: 1st – 3rd July. Changes from 26 - 28 June.
https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1808514736985686041
However it will not be a cause for panic because the flip side is that the Labour votes will be piling up in the marginals that will decide the election.
Harris will see a brutal pile-on. I hope she has plenty of armour.
its a meaningless number that makes no difference to their lives. It doesn’t change who is pm. All they will hear is talking heads saying how each party did it broad strokes
Do you ever talk to normal people ?
Can I just take a moment to point out where the Reform leaflet that just dropped through my door was printed? Were there no Great British Printers available?
Do British voters think the Conservative Party made the right or wrong decision in asking Boris Johnson to resign? (26-27 June)
Right decision 51% (-2)
Wrong decision 31% (–)
Changes +/- 22 March 2023
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1808516790349103482
Edit: found it OK. Had forgotten it's not twatter. Sorry.
https://www.facebook.com/DavidDuguidMP/?locale=en_GB
Hate to say it but the ABC News interview is the most important upcoming political event this week. I hope George Stephanopoulos is a combative interviewer
That's the thing about FPTP - you don't need much vote share to start squeaking through randomly in 4 way marginals.
But, still a terrible result.
I hope they're wrong.
She is however neither senile nor mad. So really we ought to be seizing that with both hands.
I know Carmarthen (won by Plaid in 2019) has had bits of Tory Pembrokeshire tacked on, but I still find that idea unrealistic....
Conservative: 17%
Labour: 40%
Liberal Democrat: 5%
Green Party: 3%
Reform UK: 22%
SNP: 0%
Plaid Cymru: 13%
Other: 0%
This election has been notable (to me) for the lack of impact the railings of the Mail has had. 2024 is the social media election.
🌹 LAB: 444 (+244)
🌳 CON: 108 (-264)
🔶 LDM: 57 (+49)
🎗️ SNP: 15 (-33)
➡️ RFM: 2 (+2)
🌼 PC: 2 (=)
🌍 GRN: 1 (=)
Via @focaldataHQ, 10 Jun - 1 Jul.
Changes w/ GE2019 Notionals.
The prime minister is helping stuff envelopes with leaflets to be delivered tomorrow in Hampshire.
There is no mention of Rishi Sunak on any of the leaflets.
https://x.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1808517488914702344
In some ways it might be kinder for Sunak "to go down with the ship" - his reputation is in tatters what ever happens, and that would let him get on with his life.....the perils of having a politically inexperienced technocrat as PM.......oh dear.....
If Harris becomes President now, the Republican house won’t confirm a VP as replacement - because should anything happen to Harris, Republican Speaker Mike Johnson would then be acting President.
They will let Biden serve out the rest of his term.
Still a big moment if Sunak loses, but not on the scale of Portillo. Ed Balls losing his seat in 2015 is closer, probably.
Let it be noted that is, also, democracy belatedly doing it job. Biden was exposed in a public debate he could not quite control (tho his team tried) and he was found very very wanting. Now the public and media pressure is forcing an insane POTUS to quit, as he should
That's how it is meant to work, that's what makes democracies superior, in the end (for all their many grievous flaws)
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
Lol
Jon Ossoff you mean? Very good political operator. Would probably demolish Donald Trump.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy79q7ej49yo
"Captain Sir Tom Moore's daughter Hannah Ingram-Moore and her husband Colin have been disqualified from being charity trustees by the Charity Commission."
The worst outcome now is a patball interview where Biden can somehow pretend to be just-about-OK and then the hideous farce continues, and even worsens
Acceptable under the circumstances.