All this proves is that Blair didn't need to court Murdoch in 1997.
The dead tree press had far more power back then.
This election has been notable (to me) for the lack of impact the railings of the Mail has had. 2024 is the social media election.
I've been more surprised by how half-hearted the Mail have been. And to a lesser extent what feels like cautious not-quite-endorsement of the Tories by The Times.
I guess also confirming too that the Telegraph is now irretrievably batshit; a very sad decline for that venerable organ.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
I was 23 and a bit of a leftie but…yes, he was pretty disliked. That SAS speech really took the piss.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
I seem to recall that my admittedly inebriated response was "go on ya bastard"
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
The other thing that's overlooked is that Portillo was the heir apparent to Thatcher - and Sunak has no obvious heirs apparent - not least of all because there will be a significant cull of potential candidates and the Tories are out of office for two terms at least.
In some ways it might be kinder for Sunak "to go down with the ship" - his reputation is in tatters what ever happens, and that would let him get on with his life.....the perils of having a politically inexperienced technocrat as PM.......oh dear.....
I think Rishi is probably massively looking forward to this weekend and secretly hopes he loses. He can go and relax with his family and not have a care in the world. Unlike some other past PMs he is set for life and he can probably blame the defeat on his predecessors. He’ll get some tech job some day and not have a care in the world - it must be lovely to imagine it for him.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Unexpected has to be in there I think. There are also the implications. Sunak is on his way out and probably won't even be an MP in five years, even if he wins his seat this time. Portillo was one of the main contenders to be next Con leader.
Still a big moment if Sunak loses, but not on the scale of Portillo. Ed Balls losing his seat in 2015 is closer, probably.
Laura Pidcock.
I'd forgotten about her.
But was she a realistic shot for leader? Maybe - or would she have done no better than Long-Bailey? My own view is coloured by 1997 being the first election I was really interested in and watched some of the results (I was too young to vote). Plus I was a young Mail or Telegraph reader (forget when my parents switched) and believed Portillo would be the future of Britain. It was a big shock to me.
Biden will quit before the end of July, possibly much sooner than that
It's gonna be Kamala Harris
Biden won’t resign as President IMO.
If Harris becomes President now, the Republican house won’t confirm a VP as replacement - because should anything happen to Harris, Republican Speaker Mike Johnson would then be acting President.
They will let Biden serve out the rest of his term.
If he resigns then the case for Harris becomes airtight as she will be the incumbent. If he doesn’t resign but just withdraws and endorses her, I don’t see how they avoid a contested convention. There are several other better candidates than Harris, she needs to be President now to lock it up and have a better chance against Trump, even without a sitting VP. They have to take the gamble.
"Captain Sir Tom Moore's daughter Hannah Ingram-Moore and her husband Colin have been disqualified from being charity trustees by the Charity Commission."
Glad their particularly brazen grift is all but over.
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
You've just copy/pasted Biden's name into an old Liz Truss headline.
Do American lettuces last longer? I assume they’re genetically modified.
Biden vs a lettuce would be in very bad taste.
As ABC interviews Biden they should get Fox to interview a lettuce at the same time, for the bantz, but also as a serious test to see who performs worse
The UKs climate being more unpredictable is precisely why our food security is better relying upon imports than trying to be self-sufficient in food.
If our farmers have a bad harvest and we're relying upon them, we have a major problem. If we import we can switch from one nation to another quite easily.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
The UKs climate being more unpredictable is precisely why our food security is better relying upon imports than trying to be self-sufficient in food.
If our farmers have a bad harvest and we're relying upon them, we have a major problem. If we import we can switch from one nation to another quite easily.
That's rich coming from an Australian. Or someome who has lived there for a decent while. (Sorry, I forget which.)
For a long time, Opinium tended to have the smallest Labour leads because of its methodology. On 24 May, after the GE was called, they had Labour on a 14pp lead. So this lead of 20 looks pretty significant to me.
If Reform get anywhere neat the 17% in that poll, and Green get anything like 7%, it really will be a major shock to the system as well as the beginning of the end of FPTP.
Interesting to see a poll with Labour up and SNP down after a string of them showing the opposite. And now a couple that don't have big Ref-Con swings. Which potentially means there isn't some really major late swing that polls are picking up close to the line.
Lib Dems have generally been down a tad in the last 2 days.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
Will the safest seat after the GE for the Tories still be South Holland and the Deepings ?
Here's the safest Tory seat from a few models
East Grinstead and Uckfield - EC Rutland and Stamford - YG East Surrey - NS North Dorset - IPSOS East Grinstead and Uckfield - Savanta Maldon - Focaldata Hinckley and Bosworth - MiC Beaconsfield - Focaldata
Weird, because if you scan other MRPs a fair few of those are forecast to be lost, or at least at risk
Everybody makes different-but-plausible forecasting assumptions even when the underlying sample data is similar - which it often isn't. Probably somebody will be right, but it might well be by accident (data errors and invalid forecasting model assumptions cancel each other out. It's happened before.)
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
The betting markets have moved decisively against him.
Now's the time to top up - the article is far less dramatic than the headline. Looks like the New York Times trying to force him out more than anything.
The question is whether Harris will become President this year. Can Biden credibly continue until January?
Surely he has to retire this summer so she becomes president, thus giving her more stature in the eyes of voters
I agree, this was the logic of backing Kamala last week.
Market is acting like this is a done deal mind. Not sure it it is.
Also, how can he credibly resign as demented, but not just yet? If he goes he has to go asap.
That's why I suggested they should come up with some OTHER medical rationale for his resignation. Saving face and sparing blushes all round. Everyone will quietly know why he's going, but he can retire proudly, having - oops - discovered that he's got diabetes or whatever. He is 81, it is probable there is something else wrong with him
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
The betting markets have moved decisively against him.
I wonder if there is VALUE in beting on Kamala to win in 2028?
If she becomes the Dem Nom, then wins in 2024, all she has to do is perform reasonably well and she's surely odds-on for a second term?
I reckon there's value betting on Trump to win in 2028. Or possibly on one of his children. If he wins this year it seems likely he'll remove term limits and ensure the 2028 election is a foregone conclusion. He's not going to make the same mistakes twice.
Biden will quit before the end of July, possibly much sooner than that
It's gonna be Kamala Harris
Biden won’t resign as President IMO.
If Harris becomes President now, the Republican house won’t confirm a VP as replacement - because should anything happen to Harris, Republican Speaker Mike Johnson would then be acting President.
They will let Biden serve out the rest of his term.
If he resigns then the case for Harris becomes airtight as she will be the incumbent. If he doesn’t resign but just withdraws and endorses her, I don’t see how they avoid a contested convention. There are several other better candidates than Harris, she needs to be President now to lock it up and have a better chance against Trump, even without a sitting VP. They have to take the gamble.
If the party rallies around Harris they might be fine without her being President. There’s no particular reason that President Harris significantly sews up the convention compared to VP Harris.
I think the risk of having no VP is massive for the party and indeed the country. If something happens to Harris you have a Republican speaker acting President.
And even if nothing happens to Harris - you need a VP to certify election results - as happened with Mike Pence last time. So with no Democrat there to guarantee it, how can you be sure the 2024 election will be certified correctly?
The UKs climate being more unpredictable is precisely why our food security is better relying upon imports than trying to be self-sufficient in food.
If our farmers have a bad harvest and we're relying upon them, we have a major problem. If we import we can switch from one nation to another quite easily.
That's rich coming from an Australian. Or someome who has lived there for a decent while. (Sorry, I forget which.)
Not sure what point you're trying to make with that dig?
And I'm a proud "POME bastard" who wore an England Cricket Shirt to school (which I got away with until final period of the day when a teacher finally clocked it was against school uniform) during the Ashes in the 1990s.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Unexpected has to be in there I think. There are also the implications. Sunak is on his way out and probably won't even be an MP in five years, even if he wins his seat this time. Portillo was one of the main contenders to be next Con leader.
Still a big moment if Sunak loses, but not on the scale of Portillo. Ed Balls losing his seat in 2015 is closer, probably.
The defeat of Liz Truss is the cathartic moment that the nation craves.
She won't be able to say that she was defeated by the unelected blob then. The voters would have kicked her out to make sure she couldn't come back.
Biden will quit before the end of July, possibly much sooner than that
It's gonna be Kamala Harris
Biden won’t resign as President IMO.
If Harris becomes President now, the Republican house won’t confirm a VP as replacement - because should anything happen to Harris, Republican Speaker Mike Johnson would then be acting President.
They will let Biden serve out the rest of his term.
Yes, it’s the VP that needs confirmation but I think that the risk of Harris being able to serve 5 months is one they’ll take. (The extract below I reproduce because I was going to make a completely different point which was wrong but I’ve spent so much time on it I’ll keep it)
Amendment XXV Section 1. In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President. Section 2. Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.
The UKs climate being more unpredictable is precisely why our food security is better relying upon imports than trying to be self-sufficient in food.
If our farmers have a bad harvest and we're relying upon them, we have a major problem. If we import we can switch from one nation to another quite easily.
That's rich coming from an Australian. Or someome who has lived there for a decent while. (Sorry, I forget which.)
Not sure what point you're trying to make with that dig?
And I'm a proud "POME bastard" who wore an England Cricket Shirt to school (which I got away with until final period of the day when a teacher finally clocked it was against school uniform) during the Ashes in the 1990s.
The instability of the Australian climate, not you personally (sorry if there was any misunderstanding there). And the droughts.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Unexpected has to be in there I think. There are also the implications. Sunak is on his way out and probably won't even be an MP in five years, even if he wins his seat this time. Portillo was one of the main contenders to be next Con leader.
Still a big moment if Sunak loses, but not on the scale of Portillo. Ed Balls losing his seat in 2015 is closer, probably.
The defeat of Liz Truss is the cathartic moment that the nation craves.
She won't be able to say that she was defeated by the unelected blob then. The voters would have kicked her out to make sure she couldn't come back.
For a long time, Opinium tended to have the smallest Labour leads because of its methodology. On 24 May, after the GE was called, they had Labour on a 14pp lead. So this lead of 20 looks pretty significant to me.
We've had endless months of left-leaning posters explaining why the Opinium methodology is suspect. It's kinda hilarious to now see them as the most Labour-favourable pollster.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
Interesting how he and Balls have both gone on to what I assume are much happier careers in media. I remember Portillo doing a 'life swap' programme with a single mum on benefits in Liverpool and giving a genuine impression of a person who learned an awful lot about how people actually live.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Unexpected has to be in there I think. There are also the implications. Sunak is on his way out and probably won't even be an MP in five years, even if he wins his seat this time. Portillo was one of the main contenders to be next Con leader.
Still a big moment if Sunak loses, but not on the scale of Portillo. Ed Balls losing his seat in 2015 is closer, probably.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
If Sunak is defeated, he could reinvent himself as a television presenter. Great High Speed Railway Journeys ….. Oh wait ……
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
Yes, Portillo was intensely disliked by most non-Tories. At that time he was on the right of the party, favoured by people like Tebbit, and had quite an unpleasant streak.
It was later that he mellowed and became the urbane sophisticate that we all know and love now.
Speaking of eras ending, The Guardian writer and headline writers managed to resist crowbarring even one reference to Brexit into that article. Sad times.
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
The betting markets have moved decisively against him.
I wonder if there is VALUE in beting on Kamala to win in 2028?
If she becomes the Dem Nom, then wins in 2024, all she has to do is perform reasonably well and she's surely odds-on for a second term?
I reckon there's value betting on Trump to win in 2028. Or possibly on one of his children. If he wins this year it seems likely he'll remove term limits and ensure the 2028 election is a foregone conclusion. He's not going to make the same mistakes twice.
How will he change the constitution? He needs two thirds of the states. I’m not saying he can’t do it but I’m fascinated by the “how”.
For a long time, Opinium tended to have the smallest Labour leads because of its methodology. On 24 May, after the GE was called, they had Labour on a 14pp lead. So this lead of 20 looks pretty significant to me.
We've had endless months of left-leaning posters explaining why the Opinium methodology is suspect. It's kinda hilarious to now see them as the most Labour-favourable pollster.
Reminds me of all moaning minnies saying YouGov were a 'Tory pollster'.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
Will the safest seat after the GE for the Tories still be South Holland and the Deepings ?
Here's the safest Tory seat from a few models
East Grinstead and Uckfield - EC Rutland and Stamford - YG East Surrey - NS North Dorset - IPSOS East Grinstead and Uckfield - Savanta Maldon - Focaldata Hinckley and Bosworth - MiC Beaconsfield - Focaldata
Weird, because if you scan other MRPs a fair few of those are forecast to be lost, or at least at risk
Everybody makes different-but-plausible forecasting assumptions even when the underlying sample data is similar - which it often isn't. Probably somebody will be right, but it might well be by accident (data errors and invalid forecasting model assumptions cancel each other out. It's happened before.)
I wonder whether any off the pollsters or MRPs will be accurate, given the unprecedented likely result. Not long to find out!
Who will be the closest? I’m guessing YouGov, without any conviction.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
To be fair to Truss she is nowhere near as much of a sneering culture warrior as some others. I would put JRM on the top of the pile, with several others - Jenrick, Gullis, Braverman, Mercer - next to him on the podium. The latter for his individual behaviour rather than his policies.
One current spread price which really surprises me is Spreadex's Coservative/LibDems Seat Supremacy offered at 52 seats to sell and 57 seats to buy.
In view of the fact that a number of PBers believe that the total of LibDems seats won will actually outnumber those won by the Tories, an outcome which is supported by some pollsters' Baxterised findings, this looks to me like a very promising SELL.
But as ever, particularly as regards spread betting, DYOR and be ever mindful of the financial exposure involved!
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
The betting markets have moved decisively against him.
I wonder if there is VALUE in beting on Kamala to win in 2028?
If she becomes the Dem Nom, then wins in 2024, all she has to do is perform reasonably well and she's surely odds-on for a second term?
I reckon there's value betting on Trump to win in 2028. Or possibly on one of his children. If he wins this year it seems likely he'll remove term limits and ensure the 2028 election is a foregone conclusion. He's not going to make the same mistakes twice.
Trumps too old now, if he loses this year he is done.
It requires a constitutional ammendment to be rid of the 2 term limit. That's just not going to happen.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
In 2010, we had Ed Balls. And also (much less remembered) Shahid Malik. Both unexpected. I disliked both intensely, right up until about 90 seconds after the result of the announcement, when they both delivered unexpectedly generous-spirited, amusing and human concession speeches. Why don't politicians allow people to see this non-tribal side of themselves while they're still politicians? Kind of spoiled the pleasure of it - though I'd much rather end up rather liking an individual than enjoying hating them. (Though ISTR Sadiq Khan, whose result was announced between the two, gave an utterly charmless and hectoring victory speech.)
I thoroughly enjoyed Laura Pidcock losing Durham NW in 2019, however, and she gave no reason not to enjoy her loss.
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
The betting markets have moved decisively against him.
I wonder if there is VALUE in beting on Kamala to win in 2028?
If she becomes the Dem Nom, then wins in 2024, all she has to do is perform reasonably well and she's surely odds-on for a second term?
I reckon there's value betting on Trump to win in 2028. Or possibly on one of his children. If he wins this year it seems likely he'll remove term limits and ensure the 2028 election is a foregone conclusion. He's not going to make the same mistakes twice.
Trumps too old now, if he loses this year he is done.
It requires a constitutional ammendment to be rid of the 2 term limit. That's just not going to happen.
What if there is a gap between the two terms? Does the two term limit still apply?
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
The betting markets have moved decisively against him.
I wonder if there is VALUE in beting on Kamala to win in 2028?
If she becomes the Dem Nom, then wins in 2024, all she has to do is perform reasonably well and she's surely odds-on for a second term?
I reckon there's value betting on Trump to win in 2028. Or possibly on one of his children. If he wins this year it seems likely he'll remove term limits and ensure the 2028 election is a foregone conclusion. He's not going to make the same mistakes twice.
How will he change the constitution? He needs two thirds of the states. I’m not saying he can’t do it but I’m fascinated by the “how”.
I would guess he will engineer some sort of constitutional crisis and then get the supreme court to rule on it. He's already managed to get himself presidential immunity for official acts in office. One has to hope he's not being well advised (or falls out with his more competent advisers as he is wont to do).
For a long time, Opinium tended to have the smallest Labour leads because of its methodology. On 24 May, after the GE was called, they had Labour on a 14pp lead. So this lead of 20 looks pretty significant to me.
We've had endless months of left-leaning posters explaining why the Opinium methodology is suspect. It's kinda hilarious to now see them as the most Labour-favourable pollster.
Reminds me of all moaning minnies saying YouGov were a 'Tory pollster'.
Oh yeah, we used to get that all the time in 2008 when YouGov showed a 10% Con lead and OGH would put up 10 smiling Dave's in the thread header.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Unexpected has to be in there I think. There are also the implications. Sunak is on his way out and probably won't even be an MP in five years, even if he wins his seat this time. Portillo was one of the main contenders to be next Con leader.
Still a big moment if Sunak loses, but not on the scale of Portillo. Ed Balls losing his seat in 2015 is closer, probably.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
If Sunak is defeated, he could reinvent himself as a television presenter. Great High Speed Railway Journeys ….. Oh wait ……
Great helicopter journeys would be a new twist on an old formula.
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
The betting markets have moved decisively against him.
I wonder if there is VALUE in beting on Kamala to win in 2028?
If she becomes the Dem Nom, then wins in 2024, all she has to do is perform reasonably well and she's surely odds-on for a second term?
I reckon there's value betting on Trump to win in 2028. Or possibly on one of his children. If he wins this year it seems likely he'll remove term limits and ensure the 2028 election is a foregone conclusion. He's not going to make the same mistakes twice.
Trumps too old now, if he loses this year he is done.
It requires a constitutional ammendment to be rid of the 2 term limit. That's just not going to happen.
What if there is a gap between the two terms? Does the two term limit still apply?
The other option is the Putin-Medvedev approach. Respect the term limit this time, install a puppet or a family member, then come back later when things have moved on more to his advantage.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
He did apologise nicely at the count, didn't he?
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of their victory celebrations.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
The betting markets have moved decisively against him.
I wonder if there is VALUE in beting on Kamala to win in 2028?
If she becomes the Dem Nom, then wins in 2024, all she has to do is perform reasonably well and she's surely odds-on for a second term?
I reckon there's value betting on Trump to win in 2028. Or possibly on one of his children. If he wins this year it seems likely he'll remove term limits and ensure the 2028 election is a foregone conclusion. He's not going to make the same mistakes twice.
Trump should nominate Ivanka as his running mate. That is the only way the next generation can enter the White House.
One current spread price which really surprises me is Spreadex's Coservative/LibDems Seat Supremacy offered at 52 seats to sell and 57 seats to buy.
In view of the fact that a number of PBers believe that the total of LibDems seats won will actually outnumber those won by the Tories, an outcome which is supported by some pollsters' Baxterised findings, this looks to me like a very promising SELL.
But as ever, particularly as regards spread betting, DYOR and be ever mindful of the financial exposure involved!
I have seen too many General Elections with results not as good as expected for the Liberals. So I have decided the target is 30 seats - double the current number (including by-election wins)
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
I quite liked his double act with Dianne Abbott as well.
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
The betting markets have moved decisively against him.
I wonder if there is VALUE in beting on Kamala to win in 2028?
If she becomes the Dem Nom, then wins in 2024, all she has to do is perform reasonably well and she's surely odds-on for a second term?
I reckon there's value betting on Trump to win in 2028. Or possibly on one of his children. If he wins this year it seems likely he'll remove term limits and ensure the 2028 election is a foregone conclusion. He's not going to make the same mistakes twice.
Trumps too old now, if he loses this year he is done.
It requires a constitutional ammendment to be rid of the 2 term limit. That's just not going to happen.
What if there is a gap between the two terms? Does the two term limit still apply?
Yes.
It is possible to be elected for 2 terms if you take office from being VP and do less than 2 years as POTUS so 2.49 terms is possible.
President Biden told a key ally that his campaign may be unsalvageable if he can’t convince the public he’s up for the job.
NYT
The betting markets have moved decisively against him.
I wonder if there is VALUE in beting on Kamala to win in 2028?
If she becomes the Dem Nom, then wins in 2024, all she has to do is perform reasonably well and she's surely odds-on for a second term?
I reckon there's value betting on Trump to win in 2028. Or possibly on one of his children. If he wins this year it seems likely he'll remove term limits and ensure the 2028 election is a foregone conclusion. He's not going to make the same mistakes twice.
Trumps too old now, if he loses this year he is done.
It requires a constitutional ammendment to be rid of the 2 term limit. That's just not going to happen.
This Supreme Court wouldn't stop Trump from serving a third term. I thought that was already obvious from their response to the Colorado case on the 14th amendment.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I’m a similar age to @Ghedebrav but can remember Portillo being hated.
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of the defeat.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
He did apologise nicely at the count, didn't he?
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of their victory celebrations.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
Johnny Mercer is the one for me as well, horrible man
Dog’s in a cone due to an eye infection, so he’s a bit grumpy. Hearing about all the Tories due to lose their seats tomorrow night isn’t cheering him up, sadly.
Have you tried the inflatable rings instead? Worked way better for our dog - she used it as a comfy pillow.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I’m a similar age to @Ghedebrav but can remember Portillo being hated.
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of the defeat.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
He did apologise nicely at the count, didn't he?
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of their victory celebrations.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
I quite liked his double act with Dianne Abbott as well.
Oh yeah, Diane did quite a lot to "rehabilitate" his reputation, as next to her (and whatever loopy guests they had on) Portillo was usually the voice of reason on that show...
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
I quite liked his double act with Dianne Abbott as well.
I see the U/O 59.5 market with bf is now 1.8 Under (was 1.9 earlier today). Slightly better odds to Lay 60 or more at 2.24.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Unexpected has to be in there I think. There are also the implications. Sunak is on his way out and probably won't even be an MP in five years, even if he wins his seat this time. Portillo was one of the main contenders to be next Con leader.
Still a big moment if Sunak loses, but not on the scale of Portillo. Ed Balls losing his seat in 2015 is closer, probably.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
If Sunak is defeated, he could reinvent himself as a television presenter. Great High Speed Railway Journeys ….. Oh wait ……
Great helicopter journeys would be a new twist on an old formula.
Davey's already bagged the "great thrill rides of the world" series and Braverman might be doing a travelogue on undiscovered Rwanda, visiting the gorillas, trolling around the pristine backstreets of Kigali etc. Boris is being signed up for great bus journeys. IDS will be travelling Europe in his vintage Morgan with Steve Baker. So helicopters are pretty much all that's left.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
On a personal level, losing his seat did him a favour. He'd become obnoxious, bumptious, preening - and that was only how he came over on TV. With his bubble burst, he managed to salvage the real person - at least as far as TV could show.
I've changed my mind. Originally my hope for the greatest defenestration was either JRM or Truss. But no.
I'd forgotten Robert Jenrick. The most corrupt and unpleasant slimeball of the lot. I shall be saving a large slug of whisky for the moment, hopefully, that he goes.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I’m a similar age to @Ghedebrav but can remember Portillo being hated.
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of the defeat.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
He did apologise nicely at the count, didn't he?
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of their victory celebrations.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
Did he apologise?
That was probably my mental lapse! 'Concede' would be much better.
I've changed my mind. Originally my hope for the greatest defenestration was either JRM or Truss. But no.
I'd forgotten Robert Jenrick. The most corrupt and unpleasant slimeball of the lot. I shall be saving a large slug of whisky for the moment, hopefully, that he goes.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
He did apologise nicely at the count, didn't he?
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of their victory celebrations.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
The hatred for Portillo was a bit confected by the media.
One current spread price which really surprises me is Spreadex's Coservative/LibDems Seat Supremacy offered at 52 seats to sell and 57 seats to buy.
In view of the fact that a number of PBers believe that the total of LibDems seats won will actually outnumber those won by the Tories, an outcome which is supported by some pollsters' Baxterised findings, this looks to me like a very promising SELL.
But as ever, particularly as regards spread betting, DYOR and be ever mindful of the financial exposure involved!
I have seen too many General Elections with results not as good as expected for the Liberals. So I have decided the target is 30 seats - double the current number (including by-election wins)
I started with a mental target of 25 but have upped that to 30 (plus overtaking SNP in the commons) as a reasonable aspiration.
I've changed my mind. Originally my hope for the greatest defenestration was either JRM or Truss. But no.
I'd forgotten Robert Jenrick. The most corrupt and unpleasant slimeball of the lot. I shall be saving a large slug of whisky for the moment, hopefully, that he goes.
The average voter would not know Jenrick, however deserved his loss might be.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
He did apologise nicely at the count, didn't he?
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of their victory celebrations.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
The hatred for Portillo was a bit confected by the media.
I think the thing about the Portillo moment was more the momentum shift. He was the coming man, the heir apparent of the Tory right, on the rise in the ranks, phone lines set up. Cruelly cut off in his ascendancy.
To my mind that makes the closest equivalents to Portillo this time probably Badenoch or Braverman. Both of whom I think are pretty safe.
I've changed my mind. Originally my hope for the greatest defenestration was either JRM or Truss. But no.
I'd forgotten Robert Jenrick. The most corrupt and unpleasant slimeball of the lot. I shall be saving a large slug of whisky for the moment, hopefully, that he goes.
For a long time, Opinium tended to have the smallest Labour leads because of its methodology. On 24 May, after the GE was called, they had Labour on a 14pp lead. So this lead of 20 looks pretty significant to me.
We've had endless months of left-leaning posters explaining why the Opinium methodology is suspect. It's kinda hilarious to now see them as the most Labour-favourable pollster.
The concern was the assumptions that Opinium were making when reallocating a copious amount of "don't knows". Perhaps that concern had some substance, because now that they are reporting that their DKs are no longer copious (and hence they can no longer reallocate that many) Opinium are also no longer reporting smaller Labour leads than other pollsters. Just 8% of 2019 Tories and 4% of 2019 Labour are DK now.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Or the unexpected defeat of a disliked, prominent politician, and I'm not sure Hunt or Sunak are really disliked. Gove was but is not standing, Suella would qualify, and maybe JRM if he counts as an unexpected defeat.
Was Portillo *that* disliked? Genuine question; I was 16 at the time, relatively politically aware but not in the weeds like we are here.
Suella would 100% qualify. As would Truss and I think JRM too.
He was a bete noir at the time. Viscerally disliked by many. Easy to forget in the light of his subsequent career. Rishi doesn't come close.
I think Truss or JRM would be closer to a Portillo moment than Sunak. It was the seeming arrogance and entitlement of Portillo that made him so disliked.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
It wasn't just the trains. First he had to show some understanding of why he had lost, and he then took part in that reality show where he lived the life of a single parent on benefits and came to understand what a hard existence it was. Then he started doing the trains.
He did apologise nicely at the count, didn't he?
He did make a very good concession speech on the night in 1997. I had friends who said he drew the sting out of their victory celebrations.
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
The hatred for Portillo was a bit confected by the media.
One current spread price which really surprises me is Spreadex's Coservative/LibDems Seat Supremacy offered at 52 seats to sell and 57 seats to buy.
In view of the fact that a number of PBers believe that the total of LibDems seats won will actually outnumber those won by the Tories, an outcome which is supported by some pollsters' Baxterised findings, this looks to me like a very promising SELL.
But as ever, particularly as regards spread betting, DYOR and be ever mindful of the financial exposure involved!
I have seen too many General Elections with results not as good as expected for the Liberals. So I have decided the target is 30 seats - double the current number (including by-election wins)
I started with a mental target of 25 but have upped that to 30 (plus overtaking SNP in the commons) as a reasonable aspiration.
You can both look forward to at least meeting those two targets
I think LD will get 30 to 50 but there will be some disappointments in there
I've changed my mind. Originally my hope for the greatest defenestration was either JRM or Truss. But no.
I'd forgotten Robert Jenrick. The most corrupt and unpleasant slimeball of the lot. I shall be saving a large slug of whisky for the moment, hopefully, that he goes.
How is it everyone forgets Fabricant?
I changed my mind on him after the stunning revelation that he's Andy Street's life partner.
No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
I think we need to decide if a 'Portillo moment' is:
a ) the defeat of a prominent politician, or b ) the *unexpected* defeat of a prominent politician.
So in the case of (b) e.g. Jeremy Hunt losing is not a Portillo Moment. Sunak losing would be.
Unexpected has to be in there I think. There are also the implications. Sunak is on his way out and probably won't even be an MP in five years, even if he wins his seat this time. Portillo was one of the main contenders to be next Con leader.
Still a big moment if Sunak loses, but not on the scale of Portillo. Ed Balls losing his seat in 2015 is closer, probably.
The defeat of Liz Truss is the cathartic moment that the nation craves.
She won't be able to say that she was defeated by the unelected blob then. The voters would have kicked her out to make sure she couldn't come back.
Truss out, Hunt still there would be good. Sadly I think Hunt is certainly out. But Tugendhat (who should survive) and Hunt would be a good start to constructing a proper Tory party.
Comments
I wonder if this is one reason Mr S went for 4 July?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/03/disastrous-fruit-and-vegetable-crops-must-be-wake-up-call-for-uk-say-farmers
I guess also confirming too that the Telegraph is now irretrievably batshit; a very sad decline for that venerable organ.
But was she a realistic shot for leader? Maybe - or would she have done no better than Long-Bailey? My own view is coloured by 1997 being the first election I was really interested in and watched some of the results (I was too young to vote). Plus I was a young Mail or Telegraph reader (forget when my parents switched) and believed Portillo would be the future of Britain. It was a big shock to me.
If our farmers have a bad harvest and we're relying upon them, we have a major problem. If we import we can switch from one nation to another quite easily.
Market is acting like this is a done deal mind. Not sure it it is.
Also, how can he credibly resign as demented, but not just yet? If he goes he has to go asap.
If she becomes the Dem Nom, then wins in 2024, all she has to do is perform reasonably well and she's surely odds-on for a second term?
Link to focaldata data
Interesting to see a poll with Labour up and SNP down after a string of them showing the opposite. And now a couple that don't have big Ref-Con swings. Which potentially means there isn't some really major late swing that polls are picking up close to the line.
Lib Dems have generally been down a tad in the last 2 days.
It's quite amazing the way he's turned public perception of himself around by taking a few train rides lol...
But yes it needs to be done pronto
OK I need to do real life stuff, later
I think the risk of having no VP is massive for the party and indeed the country. If something happens to Harris you have a Republican speaker acting President.
And even if nothing happens to Harris - you need a VP to certify election results - as happened with Mike Pence last time. So with no Democrat there to guarantee it, how can you be sure the 2024 election will be certified correctly?
And I'm a proud "POME bastard" who wore an England Cricket Shirt to school (which I got away with until final period of the day when a teacher finally clocked it was against school uniform) during the Ashes in the 1990s.
I'd suggest taking the 2.56 if Harris is nominee.
She won't be able to say that she was defeated by the unelected blob then. The voters would have kicked her out to make sure she couldn't come back.
Amendment XXV
Section 1. In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President.
Section 2. Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.
It was later that he mellowed and became the urbane sophisticate that we all know and love now.
Who will be the closest? I’m guessing YouGov, without any conviction.
In view of the fact that a number of PBers believe that the total of LibDems seats won will actually outnumber those won by the Tories, an outcome which is supported by some pollsters' Baxterised findings, this looks to me like a very promising SELL.
But as ever, particularly as regards spread betting, DYOR and be ever mindful of the financial exposure involved!
It requires a constitutional ammendment to be rid of the 2 term limit. That's just not going to happen.
I thoroughly enjoyed Laura Pidcock losing Durham NW in 2019, however, and she gave no reason not to enjoy her loss.
Chutzpah doesn't cut it.
https://x.com/BrianSpanner1/status/1808416752247689345
Those were the days. Hope OGH is doing OK?
Jeremy Hunt is widely disliked but I think slightly unfairly. He’s quite popular in his constituency.
Rishi Sunak is for many tories, including my Surrey friend, the one who stabbed her beloved Boris in the back. She strongly dislikes him. He has also come out with some disgusting dog-whistle gutter politics recently so I hope he gets politically crushed, even though he’s not to blame for this tory mess.
Liz Truss losing would be delicious.
Hopefully everyone can agree though that the one defeat which would be worth cheering across the political spectrum is Johnny Mercer. What a shit.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/vp-harris-top-choice-replace-biden-election-race-if-he-steps-aside-sources-say-2024-07-03/
It is possible to be elected for 2 terms if you take office from being VP and do less than 2 years as POTUS so 2.49 terms is possible.
See this (but NSFW, and it's not Wings' fault):
https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-tweets-you-wont-read/
It's absurd he's now 13/1 for next President!
I've topped up a bit. He's not a <10% chance as the incumbent FFS
Go girl!
Conservatives have gone relentlessly negative
They are hiding rishi sunak away
It’s sad they feel they have to hide the first ethnic minority pm away to appeal to racist voters but it’s 100% the right electoral strategy
Seems to be working looking at the polls
I'd forgotten Robert Jenrick. The most corrupt and unpleasant slimeball of the lot. I shall be saving a large slug of whisky for the moment, hopefully, that he goes.
I'm also £70 in the green if Biden doesn't make full term.
Ouch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AS4kaxRJYqU
Trump +276.95
Harris +304.66
Biden +1315.51
Whitmer +163.61
Newsom, Obama -936.47
The field +163.61
Dem Nominee (Smarkets)
Harris (& the field) +14.71
Biden +538.66
Smarkets POTUS
Harris +730.79
Biden, Trump & the field -53.12
https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1808412853847687221?s=46
To my mind that makes the closest equivalents to Portillo this time probably Badenoch or Braverman. Both of whom I think are pretty safe.
I guess he became the fall guy for Thatcherism.
I think LD will get 30 to 50 but there will be some disappointments in there
30 will be enough to beat SNP