Categories
This would be the result of the night – politicalbetting.com
This would be the result of the night – politicalbetting.com
I wonder if Sunak’s inner circle have placed bets on this after being told this news?‘Rishi Sunak has confided to members of his inner circle that he is fearful of losing his Yorkshire constituency at the general election, the Guardian has been told.’https://t.co/k1Uas58p7B
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
“By dragging his party back to the centre ground of British politics for the first time since Tony Blair was in NO10, Sir Keir has won the right to take charge"
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1808502868028059762?s=19
He could then get a flight to Silicon Valley on Friday morning, skipping the resigning as PM and from his seat part. Save himself at least a few hours.
Everyone's a winner!
The last poll on the prior thread has the Tories down to 77 seats. That means a vast swathe of apparently safe seats will fall, so it could easily include the PM
I would actually feel a bit sorry for Sunak if that happens, even as I enjoy the drama. Going under 100 seats is bad enough, I'm not sure he deserves the extra humiliation. However he is also worth one billion pounds so my sympathy will be brief
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000895
Rejoice!
Coming out for the likely winner less than 24 hours until the polls open.... I'm surprised they did not wait until tomorrow with a 5am edition just to be sure they did not back the wrong party.
LAB: 38% (=)
CON: 21% (+3)
RFM: 18% (-3)
LDM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 7% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Via @WStoneInsight, 1-2 Jul.
Changes w/ 26-27 Jun.
Whitestone Insight final poll
An expression of concern at an ineffective campaign nationally? Or a serious expression of a deep-rooted belief he really, really, might lose his seat?"
Few would be happier than me if Sunak were to lose Richmond. But if he'd denied the possibility, the same "member of his inner circle" would be leaking stories about his complacency.
It's far likelier the LDs will become the Official Opposition. And that's as likely as the pig "call me Dave" reportedly bonked taking off to France from Brize Norton
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/its-time-for-a-change/
at the 2017 GE. But he wasn’t, so he got thumped harder by Johnson in 2019. Which is why Starmer is in charge. If he’d have won either of the two chances he got then he’d still be in charge and losing again now.
So I delete my comment to give people a chance of being first.
Baxtered:
LAB: 453
CON: 79
LDs: 67
REF: 7
SNP: 15
Looks likely the Tories WILL dip below 100 seats. Astonishing
Con 126
LD 52
SNP 16
Ref 2
PC 2
Grn 1
Lab 39%
Con 23%
LD 14%
Ref 13%
Grn 6%
SNP 2%
PC 1%
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/21/why-it-wont-be-the-sun-wot-won-it-in-2024/
In any event, I do have a hunch that the Sun might end up backing ‘time for a change’ Labour, just to be on the winning side.
1. There's a late swing from Reform and Don't Know > Conservatives happening, IMO. But as Con are so far behind it's too little too late to save them from catastrophe.
2. It looks like Labour will be winning their enormous majority with just under 40% of the vote which further hints at the Labour very quickly becoming unpopular. 1997 this ain't.
3, SNP are possibly going to do a bit better than expected and might be close to Labour on seats in the end.
BMG have confirmed one for later today > Out Delta - probably
Focaldata - MRP this PM
Ipsos - tomorrow am
MiC - MRP 5.30, final poll 6 > Out
Norstat - probably
Opinium - confirmed for later today
Savanta - no idea
We Think - this pm I believe
Whitestone - probably > Out
YG- MRP 5pm
Gosh, it's going to get crazy from 5pm
What happens if the sitting PM loses his seat, but his party somehow manage to retain a majority?
Especially if its unexpected?
(And a followup question - What would happen if the Leader of the Opposition lost his seat, but his party secured a majority?)
Be a bit more subtle and self effacing when you remind PBers you were right.
Home made pizza.
With pineapple.
And Marks & Spencer Popping Corn, popped.
Lab: 430 (+24)
Con: 126 (-29)
LD: 52 (+3)
This brings MiC's MRP much more into alignment with other MRPs - still the highest Tory seat count of any MRP despite how low it is.
Interesting that Cons are as low as 126 despite MiC's MRP having the widest distribution of the Labour/Tory vote (which generally reduces Labour seats and increases Tory ones in this context).
Possibly suggests this might be viewed as the likely upper bound of Tory seats.
https://x.com/beyond_topline/status/1808502688516395044?s=46
Go lie down in a dark room...
Lab n/c
Con -3
Reform +3
But what if they out-perform? If a lot of young people (who seem Reform-minded) decide Feck it, I will vote.... that could be calamitous for the Tories (on top of their catastrophe, which is already baked in)
SNP collapse in Scotland with Labour taking twice as many seats as the SNP
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/general-election-2024/mrp-3-july/
Lab 39.3
Con 20.8
So the polls have to be MASSIVELY out for the Tories to avoid an apocalyptic performance, possibly coming third in seats
What struck me was how this isn’t really news. It’s as old as the hills.
For a brilliant but deeply shocking example please see the 1998 film American History X
A movie for all times, though it’s extremely violent
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120586/
Psychologically going under 100 will devastate them
Coming 3rd - in seats or votes - will leave them in a traumatic coma
Sadly, my bet with @Sandpit is surely lost. They will win at least one seat. But what is a reasonable worst expectation?
I reckon 30-60 seats, and they are behind Reform in votes, and behind the LDs in seats
It doesn't take much movement, on the day, for that to happen
Perhaps more complex than that, with a Reform to Tory swingback, and a Labour to others being a combination of heart over head and tactical LibDem voting all going on.
The Guardian says Labour candidates and activists are reporting that in the North West and Midlands “shy” Reformers are doing well with some forecasting less than 2,000 votes between the parties.
Reform is said to be making good progress in two Oldham seats and at Leigh, Makerfield and Atherton. Bolsover, Sherwood Forest and Barnsley are heading Reform’s way.
Labour is saying privately they expect to lose some seats to Reform.
Why this is a surprise is beyond me. The North , with both Brexit and the Red Wall polling, has always been ahead of the curve.
Labour have always embraced the minorities but have taken for granted ( or in Thornberry’s case despised) the white working class so I expect Reform to have a few surprises up there sleeve.
2:52 PM · Jul 3, 2024
·
5,406
Views
https://x.com/kelvmackenzie/status/1808499072363368760
It’s saying that the Tories have the right idea about a lot of things the Sun believe in but they are tired and split. Reform have some good ideas but they are a one man band. Labour have sorted themselves out thanks to Starmer but the Sun has concerns about them on immigration, tax etc etc and will be holding them accountable.
So it’s a nuanced acceptance that Labour need to and will come to power but it’s more supportive of more of their opponents’ policy positions than of Labour’s.
Were you up for Sunak?
It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
In my defence I’ve just awoken from a heavy slumber as I’m trying to get my body clock into rhythm for tomorrow night
Let's say you're normally a Tory voter, in a seat the Tories probably cannot win. Why bother voting Tory? You may as well go for Reform to send a message
Reform could stack up a vast number of votes in places where neither they or the Tories have a chance
For all the sound and fury, I don’t think we’re going Tory sub-100. But we’re certainly going to a seismic and shocking result for the Tories.
As far as I can see, both sides are swarming the place today - Corbyn's crowd were busily leafleting outside the school round the corner half an hour ago.
https://x.com/robertshrimsley/status/1808506290970206560
A ) Vote Reform to send a message
B ) Vote Lib Dem to send a message the other way
C ) Vote Labour to be part of the 'winning team' / 'change'
You could argue that any of the above are more attractive than voting Tory anyway to 'stop the supermajority'
(I have a sneaky £2 on Beshear at about 150/1.)
It is MUCH worse for the Tories than it looks. In seat after seat after seat you can see where only a bit of tactical voting pushes the Tory out. MRP is trying to catch this but I suspect is missing quite a lot of what is actually happening.
In my own seat I note that I will retain my deposit (good start) and will finish last. MRP shows 20% of people voting for a Labour candidate who isn't on the ballot. I am reasonably confident of taking much of that and at least beating Reform and notlabour. DRoss? Sunk, and frankly that's been obvious from the start. Today's FB piece by David Duguid really won't have helped...
PS Fairlie, I do hope Wishart , Nicholson and assorted other no users get rogered and confirm SNP is run by Duds, Swinney was useless 20 years ago and is worse now.
Absolutely no basis in fact for this, just that it's expected to report first and it would be absolutely hilarious to see everyone lose their sh-t as Reform gain the first seat of the night.
Tactical voting would have to be surprisingly effective to drive the Tories below the Liberal Democrats on seats, I think.
I have that slightly outside my reasonable worst expectation for the Tories now, as a result of the polling movements since the weekend.
Sunak surely would have to stay on as leader of the Conservatives, just as he's packing his bags for California?
They may rack up a lot of votes but inefficiently, with quite a few second and third places.
That's going on nothing but gut instinct from watching elections since 2005.
The Brexit referendum was special. This feels like a typical GE with mass indifference and a typical turnout, i.e. in the 60s.
Just need @Roger to come on and predict the death of the Tory Party and I might have a bet on Con 150-200 seats