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This would be the result of the night – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 4 in General
imageThis would be the result of the night – politicalbetting.com

I wonder if Sunak’s inner circle have placed bets on this after being told this news?‘Rishi Sunak has confided to members of his inner circle that he is fearful of losing his Yorkshire constituency at the general election, the Guardian has been told.’https://t.co/k1Uas58p7B

Read the full story here

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Comments

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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758
    edited July 3
    Not first.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    I guess the voters of Richmond and Northallerton aren't Ready4Rishi?
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    third ... I've lost my touch!
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    edited July 3
    The Sun backs Labour

    “By dragging his party back to the centre ground of British politics for the first time since Tony Blair was in NO10, Sir Keir has won the right to take charge"
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    I can well believe this

    The last poll on the prior thread has the Tories down to 77 seats. That means a vast swathe of apparently safe seats will fall, so it could easily include the PM

    I would actually feel a bit sorry for Sunak if that happens, even as I enjoy the drama. Going under 100 seats is bad enough, I'm not sure he deserves the extra humiliation. However he is also worth one billion pounds so my sympathy will be brief
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Result of the night will be Jeremy Corbyn winning Islington North and if our man on the spot is right about four official canvass visits, Labour is worried about it too.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately :)
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    UKIP came second in Richmond in 2015, which was the last time a Farage vehicle fought the seat.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000895
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    Survation only yesterday gave him a 99% chance of winning, so if the critics are correct, bet the farm on him losing. (This is not advice. Shares can go down as well as up. I think he will win. DYOR).
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Jezza projected to win in Islington North.

    Rejoice!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    edited July 3
    Absolutely massive variance in the Reform vote.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,217
    Et tu, The Sun?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (=)
    CON: 21% (+3)
    RFM: 18% (-3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via @WStoneInsight, 1-2 Jul.
    Changes w/ 26-27 Jun.

    Whitestone Insight final poll
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    ChristopherChristopher Posts: 91
    23% again for the Tories and this is one of their more favoured pollsters.
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    mickydroymickydroy Posts: 314

    The Sun backs Labour

    “By dragging his party back to the centre ground of British politics for the first time since Tony Blair was in NO10, Sir Keir has won the right to take charge"

    Dragged their feet with this, seems like Murdoch just wants to be on the winning side, I still think Starmer can claim he won without the help of the Murdoch press, in 97 Murdoch was all over Blair like a rash, this is nothing like the same endorsement
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,982
    🚨 Coming up at 5pm: the final YouGov MRP* of the campaign 🚨
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    FlannerFlanner Posts: 436
    How would YOU judge an exasperated Sunak saying, in private, "Of course I'm worried. Serious papers have been saying I might lose my Richmond seat, and there are bound to at least a few among my 25,000 majority indicating to reporters they wouldn't be surprised"

    An expression of concern at an ineffective campaign nationally? Or a serious expression of a deep-rooted belief he really, really, might lose his seat?"

    Few would be happier than me if Sunak were to lose Richmond. But if he'd denied the possibility, the same "member of his inner circle" would be leaking stories about his complacency.

    It's far likelier the LDs will become the Official Opposition. And that's as likely as the pig "call me Dave" reportedly bonked taking off to France from Brize Norton
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    Labour squeak Rishi's seat by 0.2% if the swing is the same as the nearby Selby and Ainsty, assuming the loss of Bedale and Tanfield to Thirsk and Malton has no effect on the result (No idea if it helps or hinders him)
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Leaders/PMs losing their seats is the sort of thing that happens in Canada quite often, with the massive swings they sometimes have there.
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085

    The Sun backs Labour

    “By dragging his party back to the centre ground of British politics for the first time since Tony Blair was in NO10, Sir Keir has won the right to take charge"

    A*se-lickers.

    Coming out for the likely winner less than 24 hours until the polls open.... I'm surprised they did not wait until tomorrow with a 5am edition just to be sure they did not back the wrong party.
    It’s not really any sort of ringing endorsement and is based on the Tories being worn out and splintered. It’s worth reading as it’s more nuanced than the Sun saying “vote Labour”.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/its-time-for-a-change/


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    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,211
    edited July 3
    Another one predicting that my constituency (Andrew Mitchell's) will go Labour. It and its predecessors have been Tory since 1885. Truly an epochal moment if it really happens.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,217
    Get over it. He’s not coming back. He lost two consecutive General Elections. How many tries were we supposed to give him? Three? Four? He should have been kicked out when humiliated by Theresa May FFS
    at the 2017 GE. But he wasn’t, so he got thumped harder by Johnson in 2019. Which is why Starmer is in charge. If he’d have won either of the two chances he got then he’d still be in charge and losing again now.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    First like Rishi

    @TheScreamingEagles you sneaky snake, deleting your prior post.

    Still, it's accurate. He'll win his seat. Being "worried" is natural. The PM losing his seat would be to deliciously hilarious to actually happen.
    There's a glitch with Vanilla, it won't let people post on a thread unless an Admin has posted to open the thread.

    So I delete my comment to give people a chance of being first.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    Norfolk has 3 dead heats with MiC - NW, Mid and Broadland/Fakenham, all fractionally Lab!
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (=)
    CON: 21% (+3)
    RFM: 18% (-3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via @WStoneInsight, 1-2 Jul.
    Changes w/ 26-27 Jun.

    Whitestone Insight final poll

    All the polls looking quite similar now

    Baxtered:

    LAB: 453
    CON: 79
    LDs: 67
    REF: 7
    SNP: 15


    Looks likely the Tories WILL dip below 100 seats. Astonishing
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,508

    I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately :)

    I will open a bottle of Californian Red.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Lab 430
    Con 126
    LD 52
    SNP 16
    Ref 2
    PC 2
    Grn 1

    Lab 39%
    Con 23%
    LD 14%
    Ref 13%
    Grn 6%
    SNP 2%
    PC 1%
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    edited July 3

    The Sun backs Labour

    “By dragging his party back to the centre ground of British politics for the first time since Tony Blair was in NO10, Sir Keir has won the right to take charge"

    Called it in January:

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/21/why-it-wont-be-the-sun-wot-won-it-in-2024/

    In any event, I do have a hunch that the Sun might end up backing ‘time for a change’ Labour, just to be on the winning side.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    edited July 3

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (=)
    CON: 21% (+3)
    RFM: 18% (-3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via @WStoneInsight, 1-2 Jul.
    Changes w/ 26-27 Jun.

    Whitestone Insight final poll

    Three takeaways:

    1. There's a late swing from Reform and Don't Know > Conservatives happening, IMO. But as Con are so far behind it's too little too late to save them from catastrophe.

    2. It looks like Labour will be winning their enormous majority with just under 40% of the vote which further hints at the Labour very quickly becoming unpopular. 1997 this ain't.

    3, SNP are possibly going to do a bit better than expected and might be close to Labour on seats in the end.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,131
    edited July 3
    EDIT: With thanks to @wooliedyed FPT

    BMG have confirmed one for later today > Out Delta - probably
    Focaldata - MRP this PM
    Ipsos - tomorrow am
    MiC - MRP 5.30, final poll 6 > Out
    Norstat - probably
    Opinium - confirmed for later today
    Savanta - no idea
    We Think - this pm I believe
    Whitestone - probably > Out
    YG- MRP 5pm

    Gosh, it's going to get crazy from 5pm
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Is Rishi saying this to lengthen the odds? If he gets £5 million on at 1/5 that's a nice return - it'll buy a bit of bubby to soften losing the GE.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    Sun backing Labour will surely lose them votes in Liverpool. Could the majority in Knowsley go sub 30,000 ?!?
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,866
    Andy_JS said:

    Leaders/PMs losing their seats is the sort of thing that happens in Canada quite often, with the massive swings they sometimes have there.

    It was asked over on AltHistory one time, to which there was no real answer because its so vanishingly unlikely.

    What happens if the sitting PM loses his seat, but his party somehow manage to retain a majority?
    Especially if its unexpected?

    (And a followup question - What would happen if the Leader of the Opposition lost his seat, but his party secured a majority?)
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246

    Andy_JS said:

    Leaders/PMs losing their seats is the sort of thing that happens in Canada quite often, with the massive swings they sometimes have there.

    It was asked over on AltHistory one time, to which there was no real answer because its so vanishingly unlikely.

    What happens if the sitting PM loses his seat, but his party somehow manage to retain a majority?
    Especially if its unexpected?

    (And a followup question - What would happen if the Leader of the Opposition lost his seat, but his party secured a majority?)
    You don't need to be an MP to be PM, so there wouldn't be an immediate problem, but they'd hand over pretty quickly to someone who was.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    edited July 3
    I was dethreaded.
    Leon said:

    What's everyone having for election night supper?

    I'm doing my favourite Singapore chicken laksa, with the full works including deep fried tofu puffs

    I sometimes make it so spicy it wakes me at night for emergency reasons, but I figure this night, of all nights, that won't matter

    For booze, I'm doing some crisp gin and tonics, oir maybe dry white wine, then Gran Reserva Riojas through the night

    Home made pizza.

    With pineapple.

    And Marks & Spencer Popping Corn, popped.

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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    The Sun backs Labour

    “By dragging his party back to the centre ground of British politics for the first time since Tony Blair was in NO10, Sir Keir has won the right to take charge"

    Called it in January"

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/11909/why-it-won-t-be-the-sun-wot-won-it-in-2024-politicalbetting-com#latest
    Just a bit of friendly advice.

    Be a bit more subtle and self effacing when you remind PBers you were right.
    You are hardly leading by example...
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    Changes on More in Common's final MRP compared to their previous iteration:

    Lab: 430 (+24)
    Con: 126 (-29)
    LD: 52 (+3)

    This brings MiC's MRP much more into alignment with other MRPs - still the highest Tory seat count of any MRP despite how low it is.


    Interesting that Cons are as low as 126 despite MiC's MRP having the widest distribution of the Labour/Tory vote (which generally reduces Labour seats and increases Tory ones in this context).

    Possibly suggests this might be viewed as the likely upper bound of Tory seats.

    https://x.com/beyond_topline/status/1808502688516395044?s=46
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,095
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leaders/PMs losing their seats is the sort of thing that happens in Canada quite often, with the massive swings they sometimes have there.

    It was asked over on AltHistory one time, to which there was no real answer because its so vanishingly unlikely.

    What happens if the sitting PM loses his seat, but his party somehow manage to retain a majority?
    Especially if its unexpected?

    (And a followup question - What would happen if the Leader of the Opposition lost his seat, but his party secured a majority?)
    You don't need to be an MP to be PM, so there wouldn't be an immediate problem, but they'd hand over pretty quickly to someone who was.
    They might try to get back into Parliament by promoting someone with a safe seat into the Lords. They can remain PM in the meantime
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    ChristopherChristopher Posts: 91
    Leon said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (=)
    CON: 21% (+3)
    RFM: 18% (-3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via @WStoneInsight, 1-2 Jul.
    Changes w/ 26-27 Jun.

    Whitestone Insight final poll

    All the polls looking quite similar now

    Baxtered:

    LAB: 453
    CON: 79
    LDs: 67
    REF: 7
    SNP: 15


    Looks likely the Tories WILL dip below 100 seats. Astonishing
    I think its only the "good local mp" factor that is preventing them from dipping well below 50 seats.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    Remember it's the DUP that will have the worst news tomorrow regarding Jeffrey Donaldson. Their voters are quite loyal though so it might not make any difference.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    boulay said:

    The Sun backs Labour

    “By dragging his party back to the centre ground of British politics for the first time since Tony Blair was in NO10, Sir Keir has won the right to take charge"

    A*se-lickers.

    Coming out for the likely winner less than 24 hours until the polls open.... I'm surprised they did not wait until tomorrow with a 5am edition just to be sure they did not back the wrong party.
    It’s not really any sort of ringing endorsement and is based on the Tories being worn out and splintered. It’s worth reading as it’s more nuanced than the Sun saying “vote Labour”.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/its-time-for-a-change/


    Nuanced???? It's The Sun!

    Go lie down in a dark room...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018

    Leon said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (=)
    CON: 21% (+3)
    RFM: 18% (-3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via @WStoneInsight, 1-2 Jul.
    Changes w/ 26-27 Jun.

    Whitestone Insight final poll

    All the polls looking quite similar now

    Baxtered:

    LAB: 453
    CON: 79
    LDs: 67
    REF: 7
    SNP: 15


    Looks likely the Tories WILL dip below 100 seats. Astonishing
    I think its only the "good local mp" factor that is preventing them from dipping well below 50 seats.
    Is Rishi Sunak a "good local MP" ? LOL
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,217
    Pulpstar said:

    Sun backing Labour will surely lose them votes in Liverpool. Could the majority in Knowsley go sub 30,000 ?!?

    I don’t think it will. They backed Blair and both the Knowsley predecessor constituencies (North and South) posted majorities of over 30,000 in 1997. Hillsborough was a fresher memory then too.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    GIN1138 said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (=)
    CON: 21% (+3)
    RFM: 18% (-3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via @WStoneInsight, 1-2 Jul.
    Changes w/ 26-27 Jun.

    Whitestone Insight final poll

    Three takeaways:

    1. There's a late swing from Reform and Don't Know > Conservatives happening, IMO. But as Con are so far behind it's too little too late to save them from catastrophe.
    Hi, you may well be right but that poll doesn’t show that. If you want to make a claim about the slight swing in that one it’s from Con to Reform:

    Lab n/c
    Con -3
    Reform +3
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    edited July 3
    A lot of talk on here about Reform under-performing on the day, and that might well happen

    But what if they out-perform? If a lot of young people (who seem Reform-minded) decide Feck it, I will vote.... that could be calamitous for the Tories (on top of their catastrophe, which is already baked in)
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,095

    Another one predicting that my constituency (Andrew Mitchell's) will go Labour. It and its predecessors have been Tory since 1885. Truly an epochal moment if it really happens.
    Aldershot, the home of the Army, is very likely to go Labour. It has been Tory ever since it was created.
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    ukelectukelect Posts: 140
    Andy_JS said:

    Lab 430
    Con 126
    LD 52
    SNP 16
    Ref 2
    PC 2
    Grn 1

    Lab 39%
    Con 23%
    LD 14%
    Ref 13%
    Grn 6%
    SNP 2%
    PC 1%
    Fairly similar to the latest UK-Elect prediction (Labour 420, Con 123, LD 57, SNP 16, Ref 8 (https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240703ForecastUK.html) except with Reform UK on a significantly lower vote percentage.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    23% again for the Tories and this is one of their more favoured pollsters.
    Every cloud.....

    SNP collapse in Scotland with Labour taking twice as many seats as the SNP

    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/general-election-2024/mrp-3-july/
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,131
    Pro_Rata said:

    EDIT: With thanks to @wooliedyed FPT

    BMG have confirmed one for later today > Out Delta - probably
    Focaldata - MRP this PM
    Ipsos - tomorrow am
    MiC - MRP 5.30, final poll 6 > Out
    Norstat - probably
    Opinium - confirmed for later today
    Savanta - no idea
    We Think - this pm I believe
    Whitestone - probably > Out
    YG- MRP 5pm

    Gosh, it's going to get crazy from 5pm

    Poll averages of all 18 companies, with 8 left to update:

    Lab 39.3
    Con 20.8
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,217
    Leon said:

    A lot of talk on here about Reform under-performing on the day, and that might well happen

    But what if they out-perform? If a lot of young people (who seem Reform-minded) decide F it, I will vote.... that could be calamitous for the Tories (on top of their catastrophe, which is already baked in)

    It’s a big “if”. I think the Tories will get between 100 and 130 seats. That will, incredibly, look like a decent result given the expectation management.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    EDIT: With thanks to @wooliedyed FPT

    BMG have confirmed one for later today > Out Delta - probably
    Focaldata - MRP this PM
    Ipsos - tomorrow am
    MiC - MRP 5.30, final poll 6 > Out
    Norstat - probably
    Opinium - confirmed for later today
    Savanta - no idea
    We Think - this pm I believe
    Whitestone - probably > Out
    YG- MRP 5pm

    Gosh, it's going to get crazy from 5pm

    Poll averages of all 18 companies, with 8 left to update:

    Lab 39.3
    Con 20.8
    Ta

    So the polls have to be MASSIVELY out for the Tories to avoid an apocalyptic performance, possibly coming third in seats
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,325

    Result of the night will be Jeremy Corbyn winning Islington North and if our man on the spot is right about four official canvass visits, Labour is worried about it too.

    I don't see how a MRP can predict an individual instead of a party, without doing a local poll
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    mickydroymickydroy Posts: 314
    DougSeal said:

    Get over it. He’s not coming back. He lost two consecutive General Elections. How many tries were we supposed to give him? Three? Four? He should have been kicked out when humiliated by Theresa May FFS
    at the 2017 GE. But he wasn’t, so he got thumped harder by Johnson in 2019. Which is why Starmer is in charge. If he’d have won either of the two chances he got then he’d still be in charge and losing again now.
    Corbyn was and always will be happier in opposition, and that's exactly where he left the Labour party, and almost bankrupt to boot, I still believe he shares some of the blame for the mess this country is in, with a half decent Labour leader, we wouldn't have ended up with Johnson and the clown show. The election in 2019 must have been the two worst leaders, the British people ever had to choose from
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    edited July 3
    Heathener said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (=)
    CON: 21% (+3)
    RFM: 18% (-3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via @WStoneInsight, 1-2 Jul.
    Changes w/ 26-27 Jun.

    Whitestone Insight final poll

    Three takeaways:

    1. There's a late swing from Reform and Don't Know > Conservatives happening, IMO. But as Con are so far behind it's too little too late to save them from catastrophe.
    Hi, you may well be right but that poll doesn’t show that. If you want to make a claim about the slight swing in that one it’s from Con to Reform:

    Lab n/c
    Con -3
    Reform +3
    No, Con are +3 and Ref -3 on last Whitestone Insight poll?
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    edited July 3
    I was thinking whilst out and about today of the claim that young men are voting for Reform, the extent of which is probably exaggerated by our resident Faragist.

    What struck me was how this isn’t really news. It’s as old as the hills.

    For a brilliant but deeply shocking example please see the 1998 film American History X

    A movie for all times, though it’s extremely violent

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120586/





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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    edited July 3
    Leon said:

    A lot of talk on here about Reform under-performing on the day, and that might well happen

    But what if they out-perform? If a lot of young people (who seem Reform-minded) decide Feck it, I will vote.... that could be calamitous for the Tories (on top of their catastrophe, which is already baked in)

    Pretty much all the MRPs are assuming a lower Reform vote than the actual polls indicate, plenty of which have been baked up to give the Tories a bit of a bump due to worries about another 1992 !
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 20,325
    Andy_JS said:

    Lab 430
    Con 126
    LD 52
    SNP 16
    Ref 2
    PC 2
    Grn 1

    Lab 39%
    Con 23%
    LD 14%
    Ref 13%
    Grn 6%
    SNP 2%
    PC 1%
    It has only one Green seat and is therefore wrong. Obviously. :)
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    edited July 3
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    A lot of talk on here about Reform under-performing on the day, and that might well happen

    But what if they out-perform? If a lot of young people (who seem Reform-minded) decide F it, I will vote.... that could be calamitous for the Tories (on top of their catastrophe, which is already baked in)

    It’s a big “if”. I think the Tories will get between 100 and 130 seats. That will, incredibly, look like a decent result given the expectation management.
    Right now I expect most Tories would be intensely relieved if they stay over 100 sets. Three figures kinda "looks" respectable, they got 158 in 1997 IIRC, so it's still in the ballpark of Well that's terrible, but we can return, as we did before

    Psychologically going under 100 will devastate them

    Coming 3rd - in seats or votes - will leave them in a traumatic coma



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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,873
    The last time a Tory leader lost was in 1906, when the Tories were reduced to 157 seats...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,734
    Leon said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (=)
    CON: 21% (+3)
    RFM: 18% (-3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via @WStoneInsight, 1-2 Jul.
    Changes w/ 26-27 Jun.

    Whitestone Insight final poll

    All the polls looking quite similar now

    Baxtered:

    LAB: 453
    CON: 79
    LDs: 67
    REF: 7
    SNP: 15


    Looks likely the Tories WILL dip below 100 seats. Astonishing
    One is enough.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    Leon said:

    A lot of talk on here about Reform under-performing on the day, and that might well happen

    But what if they out-perform? If a lot of young people (who seem Reform-minded) decide Feck it, I will vote.... that could be calamitous for the Tories (on top of their catastrophe, which is already baked in)

    Or the night could start with Reform taking seats in the North East causing Labour to enter a state of total panic.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    Leon said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    EDIT: With thanks to @wooliedyed FPT

    BMG have confirmed one for later today > Out Delta - probably
    Focaldata - MRP this PM
    Ipsos - tomorrow am
    MiC - MRP 5.30, final poll 6 > Out
    Norstat - probably
    Opinium - confirmed for later today
    Savanta - no idea
    We Think - this pm I believe
    Whitestone - probably > Out
    YG- MRP 5pm

    Gosh, it's going to get crazy from 5pm

    Poll averages of all 18 companies, with 8 left to update:

    Lab 39.3
    Con 20.8
    Ta

    So the polls have to be MASSIVELY out for the Tories to avoid an apocalyptic performance, possibly coming third in seats
    Something very big is going to happen, either the biggest polling failure in history or the biggest UK electoral defeat in history.
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367
    Leon said:

    I can well believe this

    The last poll on the prior thread has the Tories down to 77 seats. That means a vast swathe of apparently safe seats will fall, so it could easily include the PM

    I would actually feel a bit sorry for Sunak if that happens, even as I enjoy the drama. Going under 100 seats is bad enough, I'm not sure he deserves the extra humiliation. However he is also worth one billion pounds so my sympathy will be brief

    That 77 seats figure comes from the Baxter projection, though. There's no guarantee that it's correct - UNS suggests 160 seats from the same underlying poll.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    OK I'm going to have a bash at predicting the Worst Possible But Reasonable Tory outcome

    Sadly, my bet with @Sandpit is surely lost. They will win at least one seat. But what is a reasonable worst expectation?

    I reckon 30-60 seats, and they are behind Reform in votes, and behind the LDs in seats

    It doesn't take much movement, on the day, for that to happen
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Cicero said:

    The last time a Tory leader lost was in 1906, when the Tories were reduced to 157 seats...

    The Liberal landslide and the last time the Liberals won a majority.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639
    It looks like there has been a degree of swingback in the past few days.

    Perhaps more complex than that, with a Reform to Tory swingback, and a Labour to others being a combination of heart over head and tactical LibDem voting all going on.

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Dadge said:

    Is Rishi saying this to lengthen the odds? If he gets £5 million on at 1/5 that's a nice return - it'll buy a bit of bubby to soften losing the GE.

    Anyone here who’s defended a seat in an election should know that it’s a nerve wracking business. Even people who by every objective standard are entirely safe get the wobbles as the empty ballot boxes are driven towards their seat.
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578

    Leon said:

    A lot of talk on here about Reform under-performing on the day, and that might well happen

    But what if they out-perform? If a lot of young people (who seem Reform-minded) decide Feck it, I will vote.... that could be calamitous for the Tories (on top of their catastrophe, which is already baked in)

    Or the night could start with Reform taking seats in the North East causing Labour to enter a state of total panic.
    Yes I'm keeping some Reform trading bets ready because I expect the early North East results to spook some on the Exchange.
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    ChristopherChristopher Posts: 91
    Speaking of the sun heres the latest from Kelvin Mackenzie.

    The Guardian says Labour candidates and activists are reporting that in the North West and Midlands “shy” Reformers are doing well with some forecasting less than 2,000 votes between the parties.
    Reform is said to be making good progress in two Oldham seats and at Leigh, Makerfield and Atherton. Bolsover, Sherwood Forest and Barnsley are heading Reform’s way.
    Labour is saying privately they expect to lose some seats to Reform.
    Why this is a surprise is beyond me. The North , with both Brexit and the Red Wall polling, has always been ahead of the curve.
    Labour have always embraced the minorities but have taken for granted ( or in Thornberry’s case despised) the white working class so I expect Reform to have a few surprises up there sleeve.
    2:52 PM · Jul 3, 2024
    ·
    5,406
    Views

    https://x.com/kelvmackenzie/status/1808499072363368760
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    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085

    boulay said:

    The Sun backs Labour

    “By dragging his party back to the centre ground of British politics for the first time since Tony Blair was in NO10, Sir Keir has won the right to take charge"

    A*se-lickers.

    Coming out for the likely winner less than 24 hours until the polls open.... I'm surprised they did not wait until tomorrow with a 5am edition just to be sure they did not back the wrong party.
    It’s not really any sort of ringing endorsement and is based on the Tories being worn out and splintered. It’s worth reading as it’s more nuanced than the Sun saying “vote Labour”.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/its-time-for-a-change/


    Nuanced???? It's The Sun!

    Go lie down in a dark room...
    Ok, it’s not saying “in this close election we think that Labour have the answers to save the country so go vote for them”.

    It’s saying that the Tories have the right idea about a lot of things the Sun believe in but they are tired and split. Reform have some good ideas but they are a one man band. Labour have sorted themselves out thanks to Starmer but the Sun has concerns about them on immigration, tax etc etc and will be holding them accountable.

    So it’s a nuanced acceptance that Labour need to and will come to power but it’s more supportive of more of their opponents’ policy positions than of Labour’s.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    Result of the night will be Jeremy Corbyn winning Islington North and if our man on the spot is right about four official canvass visits, Labour is worried about it too.

    It would be the one bright spot for the Tories on the night.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,770
    No longer would we refer to the Portillo moment. Henceforth and in perpetuity it would be known as the Sunak moment.

    Were you up for Sunak? :)

    It would also be fitting if all those former Tory leaders who were responsible in one way or another for the destruction of their party - Sunak, Truss and of course IDS for bringing in the stupid membership voting rules - were themselves forced to share the pain of so many of their, sometimes decent, backbench MPs.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,223
    Big softy that I am I don't really want Rishi to lose his seat.
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    ChristopherChristopher Posts: 91
    Is there a case that reform voters arent being picked up by traditional pollsters given many dont usually vote and are likely more working class.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,072
    GIN1138 said:

    Heathener said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (=)
    CON: 21% (+3)
    RFM: 18% (-3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via @WStoneInsight, 1-2 Jul.
    Changes w/ 26-27 Jun.

    Whitestone Insight final poll

    Three takeaways:

    1. There's a late swing from Reform and Don't Know > Conservatives happening, IMO. But as Con are so far behind it's too little too late to save them from catastrophe.
    Hi, you may well be right but that poll doesn’t show that. If you want to make a claim about the slight swing in that one it’s from Con to Reform:

    Lab n/c
    Con -3
    Reform +3
    No, Con are +3 and Ref -3 on last Whitestone Insight poll?
    Lol forgive me. Right idea wrong + -

    In my defence I’ve just awoken from a heavy slumber as I’m trying to get my body clock into rhythm for tomorrow night :)
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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    If you KNOW the Tories are doomed, so voting for them is pointless, how does that effect voters psychologically?

    Let's say you're normally a Tory voter, in a seat the Tories probably cannot win. Why bother voting Tory? You may as well go for Reform to send a message

    Reform could stack up a vast number of votes in places where neither they or the Tories have a chance
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    The MIC figures look pretty much what I’m expecting right now.

    For all the sound and fury, I don’t think we’re going Tory sub-100. But we’re certainly going to a seismic and shocking result for the Tories.
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    eekeek Posts: 26,553

    Leon said:

    A lot of talk on here about Reform under-performing on the day, and that might well happen

    But what if they out-perform? If a lot of young people (who seem Reform-minded) decide Feck it, I will vote.... that could be calamitous for the Tories (on top of their catastrophe, which is already baked in)

    Or the night could start with Reform taking seats in the North East causing Labour to enter a state of total panic.
    Love to know what you are smoking - name one North East seat where Reform will do well?
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Andy_JS said:

    Lab 430
    Con 126
    LD 52
    SNP 16
    Ref 2
    PC 2
    Grn 1

    Lab 39%
    Con 23%
    LD 14%
    Ref 13%
    Grn 6%
    SNP 2%
    PC 1%
    More in Common appears the outlier so far today with only 13% for Reform. Other pollsters are going 16% - 18%. This disparity really moves the numbers.
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,367

    Result of the night will be Jeremy Corbyn winning Islington North and if our man on the spot is right about four official canvass visits, Labour is worried about it too.

    Neither side are acting like it's in the bag, that's for sure!

    As far as I can see, both sides are swarming the place today - Corbyn's crowd were busily leafleting outside the school round the corner half an hour ago.
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    Pro_Rata said:

    EDIT: With thanks to @wooliedyed FPT

    BMG have confirmed one for later today > Out Delta - probably
    Focaldata - MRP this PM
    Ipsos - tomorrow am
    MiC - MRP 5.30, final poll 6 > Out
    Norstat - probably
    Opinium - confirmed for later today
    Savanta - no idea
    We Think - this pm I believe
    Whitestone - probably > Out
    YG- MRP 5pm

    Gosh, it's going to get crazy from 5pm

    Survation also said they would update the MRP again after 9pm today if they can.
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 578
    edited July 3
    Leon said:

    If you KNOW the Tories are doomed, so voting for them is pointless, how does that effect voters psychologically?

    Let's say you're normally a Tory voter, in a seat the Tories probably cannot win. Why bother voting Tory? You may as well go for Reform to send a message

    Reform could stack up a vast number of votes in places where neither they or the Tories have a chance

    I've been thinking this all election. Former Tory voters can:

    A ) Vote Reform to send a message
    B ) Vote Lib Dem to send a message the other way
    C ) Vote Labour to be part of the 'winning team' / 'change'

    You could argue that any of the above are more attractive than voting Tory anyway to 'stop the supermajority'
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,904
    edited July 3
    Whom do we fancy for Democrat VP nominee, should the now seemingly inevitable fail to be evited ?
    (I have a sneaky £2 on Beshear at about 150/1.)
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399
    I've had a look at this latest More in Common MRP as they are kind enough to have a nice hovery map where you can easily see any seat.

    It is MUCH worse for the Tories than it looks. In seat after seat after seat you can see where only a bit of tactical voting pushes the Tory out. MRP is trying to catch this but I suspect is missing quite a lot of what is actually happening.

    In my own seat I note that I will retain my deposit (good start) and will finish last. MRP shows 20% of people voting for a Labour candidate who isn't on the ballot. I am reasonably confident of taking much of that and at least beating Reform and notlabour. DRoss? Sunk, and frankly that's been obvious from the start. Today's FB piece by David Duguid really won't have helped...
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,681
    edited July 3

    I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately :)

    I will open a bottle of Californian Red.
    I will not find out till next day so will be cup of tea
    PS Fairlie, I do hope Wishart , Nicholson and assorted other no users get rogered and confirm SNP is run by Duds, Swinney was useless 20 years ago and is worse now.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    A lot of talk on here about Reform under-performing on the day, and that might well happen

    But what if they out-perform? If a lot of young people (who seem Reform-minded) decide Feck it, I will vote.... that could be calamitous for the Tories (on top of their catastrophe, which is already baked in)

    Or the night could start with Reform taking seats in the North East causing Labour to enter a state of total panic.
    Love to know what you are smoking - name one North East seat where Reform will do well?
    Blyth & Ashington.

    Absolutely no basis in fact for this, just that it's expected to report first and it would be absolutely hilarious to see everyone lose their sh-t as Reform gain the first seat of the night.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    boulay said:

    The Sun backs Labour

    “By dragging his party back to the centre ground of British politics for the first time since Tony Blair was in NO10, Sir Keir has won the right to take charge"

    A*se-lickers.

    Coming out for the likely winner less than 24 hours until the polls open.... I'm surprised they did not wait until tomorrow with a 5am edition just to be sure they did not back the wrong party.
    It’s not really any sort of ringing endorsement and is based on the Tories being worn out and splintered. It’s worth reading as it’s more nuanced than the Sun saying “vote Labour”.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/28935096/its-time-for-a-change/


    Nuanced???? It's The Sun!

    Go lie down in a dark room...
    'Grudging' is the word I think Boulay was looking for.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    Leon said:

    OK I'm going to have a bash at predicting the Worst Possible But Reasonable Tory outcome

    Sadly, my bet with @Sandpit is surely lost. They will win at least one seat. But what is a reasonable worst expectation?

    I reckon 30-60 seats, and they are behind Reform in votes, and behind the LDs in seats

    It doesn't take much movement, on the day, for that to happen

    The current movement in the polls is towards the Tories, presumably as the don't knows finally bow to the inevitable and return to the Tory fold. I would be surprised if that ended up being a polling artefact.

    Tactical voting would have to be surprisingly effective to drive the Tories below the Liberal Democrats on seats, I think.

    I have that slightly outside my reasonable worst expectation for the Tories now, as a result of the polling movements since the weekend.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372
    The result I really really want is the Conservatives win just one seat, and it's Richmond and Northallerton.

    Sunak surely would have to stay on as leader of the Conservatives, just as he's packing his bags for California?
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,449
    GIN1138 said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 38% (=)
    CON: 21% (+3)
    RFM: 18% (-3)
    LDM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via @WStoneInsight, 1-2 Jul.
    Changes w/ 26-27 Jun.

    Whitestone Insight final poll

    Three takeaways:

    1. There's a late swing from Reform and Don't Know > Conservatives happening, IMO. But as Con are so far behind it's too little too late to save them from catastrophe.

    2. It looks like Labour will be winning their enormous majority with just under 40% of the vote which further hints at the Labour very quickly becoming unpopular. 1997 this ain't.

    3, SNP are possibly going to do a bit better than expected and might be close to Labour on seats in the end.
    Labour only got 43% in 1997. But IIRC pollsters found that many, many more people subsequently "remembered" voting Labour than actually did. The "retrospectively backing the winner" impulse is seemingly strong and should be factored into any assumed unpopularity post-election.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited July 3
    Gut feeling is the Reform thing is hype driven by the media and they will be lucky to get more than 2 seats. Let's not forget they are coming from a low base and this is first past the post and Labour are enjoying the shiny new alternative mantle, righty or wrongly.

    They may rack up a lot of votes but inefficiently, with quite a few second and third places.

    That's going on nothing but gut instinct from watching elections since 2005.

    The Brexit referendum was special. This feels like a typical GE with mass indifference and a typical turnout, i.e. in the 60s.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    A lot of talk on here about Reform under-performing on the day, and that might well happen

    But what if they out-perform? If a lot of young people (who seem Reform-minded) decide Feck it, I will vote.... that could be calamitous for the Tories (on top of their catastrophe, which is already baked in)

    Or the night could start with Reform taking seats in the North East causing Labour to enter a state of total panic.
    Love to know what you are smoking - name one North East seat where Reform will do well?
    Hartlepool, Easington, Blaydon and Consett, the Sunderland seats.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308

    Leon said:

    A lot of talk on here about Reform under-performing on the day, and that might well happen

    But what if they out-perform? If a lot of young people (who seem Reform-minded) decide Feck it, I will vote.... that could be calamitous for the Tories (on top of their catastrophe, which is already baked in)

    Or the night could start with Reform taking seats in the North East causing Labour to enter a state of total panic.
    It could: although that would also be good news for the Conservatives in the rest of the country, as it would suggest Reform was taking votes from Labour too.
This discussion has been closed.