I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately
At thet time of night/morning, I'll probably have a sandwich...
For some inexplicable reason I’ve bought some scotch eggs. I never eat scotch eggs! Just fancy them on election night.
Diet coke to help counter migraines as I’ll be on keyboard and tv screen. I never drink diet coke.
Also some Comté cheese with pitta and Ryvitas, olives, peppermint tea, special k bars
No alcohol because I don’t touch the stuff
You have the cheek to complain about Leon posts when you post absolute crap constantly, WTF and quel surprise you don't drink, would not go with the quinoa and pea shoots.
Due you have a bottle of malt set aside for the most enjoyable results, Malc? I have a good bottle of Glen Garioch ready for DRoss’s defeat.
Fairlie, I hav ea few nice drams , though I will not be staying up , giving this one a miss, no skin in the game as it will just be cheeks of the same arse that get in and apart from Ross and a few other Tories it will do nothing good for Scotland, England will still rule us with the iron fist. We will remain second class citizens.
Yes, I remember Sturgeon's triumphalism. This is why I am so looking forward to the day she is arrested and charged for her antics in the SNP.
What an arse, no whining about the billions stolen by your Tory chums or the mass of crimes they have commited down south. Hopefully you choke on your hubris.
I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately
At thet time of night/morning, I'll probably have a sandwich...
For some inexplicable reason I’ve bought some scotch eggs. I never eat scotch eggs! Just fancy them on election night.
Diet coke to help counter migraines as I’ll be on keyboard and tv screen. I never drink diet coke.
Also some Comté cheese with pitta and Ryvitas, olives, peppermint tea, special k bars
No alcohol because I don’t touch the stuff
You have the cheek to complain about Leon posts when you post absolute crap constantly, WTF and quel surprise you don't drink, would not go with the quinoa and pea shoots.
The Aldi Cuckoo Clock (the one you said looked like a demented pigeon clock in 2016) is all set too Cockoo the exit poll in at 10PM tomorrow
I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately
At thet time of night/morning, I'll probably have a sandwich...
For some inexplicable reason I’ve bought some scotch eggs. I never eat scotch eggs! Just fancy them on election night.
Diet coke to help counter migraines as I’ll be on keyboard and tv screen. I never drink diet coke.
Also some Comté cheese with pitta and Ryvitas, olives, peppermint tea, special k bars
No alcohol because I don’t touch the stuff
You have the cheek to complain about Leon posts when you post absolute crap constantly, WTF and quel surprise you don't drink, would not go with the quinoa and pea shoots.
I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately
At thet time of night/morning, I'll probably have a sandwich...
For some inexplicable reason I’ve bought some scotch eggs. I never eat scotch eggs! Just fancy them on election night.
Diet coke to help counter migraines as I’ll be on keyboard and tv screen. I never drink diet coke.
Also some Comté cheese with pitta and Ryvitas, olives, peppermint tea, special k bars
No alcohol because I don’t touch the stuff
You have the cheek to complain about Leon posts when you post absolute crap constantly, WTF and quel surprise you don't drink, would not go with the quinoa and pea shoots.
Have you laid in cask strength turnip juice for The Big Night?
Early to bed for me as usual Malmesbury, nothing of interest for Scotland and I could not suffer the insane witterings that some halfwits post on here for a whole night.
Has anyone mentioned The Times focus group broadcast yesterday - I only heard replay overnight.
Consisted of undecided voters in safe Con seats (from 50th to 150th safest).
Throughout the focus group, everyone essentially criticised all parties. Then at the end the moderator (from JL Partners) asked each person who they thought they would most likely vote for. Every single person said Con. Moderator said you could not have told this from earlier comments.
Moderator conclusion is that Con vote will hold up better than polls suggest in safe Con seats. Still a landslide but not a wipeout.
There won't be that many genuinely undecided voters at this point, so I doubt it would make a big difference. That every single one said they would vote the same way is the smell of a rat for me however.
I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately
At thet time of night/morning, I'll probably have a sandwich...
For some inexplicable reason I’ve bought some scotch eggs. I never eat scotch eggs! Just fancy them on election night.
Diet coke to help counter migraines as I’ll be on keyboard and tv screen. I never drink diet coke.
Also some Comté cheese with pitta and Ryvitas, olives, peppermint tea, special k bars
No alcohol because I don’t touch the stuff
You have the cheek to complain about Leon posts when you post absolute crap constantly, WTF and quel surprise you don't drink, would not go with the quinoa and pea shoots.
Due you have a bottle of malt set aside for the most enjoyable results, Malc? I have a good bottle of Glen Garioch ready for DRoss’s defeat.
Fairlie, I hav ea few nice drams , though I will not be staying up , giving this one a miss, no skin in the game as it will just be cheeks of the same arse that get in and apart from Ross and a few other Tories it will do nothing good for Scotland, England will still rule us with the iron fist. We will remain second class citizens.
So by my reckoning, polling wise we may have the following left Norstat Deltapoll Savanta Survation final call More in Common last regular VI Ipsos tomorrow morning
(Incidentally, Brighton Pavilion and Bristol Central are next to each other alphabetically. The Greens are going thru the phonebook! Terminator 2: Ecology Day! )
Yes, I remember Sturgeon's triumphalism. This is why I am so looking forward to the day she is arrested and charged for her antics in the SNP.
What an arse, no whining about the billions stolen by your Tory chums or the mass of crimes they have commited down south. Hopefully you choke on your hubris.
Are you back in the Nicola fold now Malc?
NO Gin, I would like to see her doing a long stretch
You have to ask the question, Labour wtf is wrong with you.
It's ok you will win Guildford and possibly quite comfortably
That's the sort of leaflet that just pisses people off and makes them more tenacious. It's the kind of finger wagging sanctimony that dominated the Corbyn years.
* Partygate * Boris Johnson lying to Parliament * Mishandling of the pandemic * Matt Hancock and his aide * PPE failures * VIP lanes * Gavin Williamson * Nadine Dorries as Culture Secretary * Suella Braverman’s “invasion” * Braverman’s TWO stints as Home Secretary * Culture wars * Wooing the hard right * Lee Anderson as deputy chairman * Dominic Raab’s holiday during the withdrawal from Afghanistan * Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Brexit benefits * Sunak’s Rwanda shambles * Enshrining in law Rwanda as a ‘safe country’ * Sunak’s five pledges * Sunak’s D-Day fiasco * Sunak calling the election in the rain * NHS waiting lists at record high * GP appointments in disarray * Sewage crisis exposed * Liz Truss imperilling the economy * Rampant inflation * Cost of living crisis * Millions struggling to pays the bills * Foodbanks * Recession * High taxes with breaking public services * Creaking defence * 3 Prime Ministers * 4 Chancellors * 5 Home Secretaries
Looks like you'll still have to go through passport controls when you jet in and out of the Cote d'Azur on your multiple trips to your million pound mansion.
I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately
At thet time of night/morning, I'll probably have a sandwich...
For some inexplicable reason I’ve bought some scotch eggs. I never eat scotch eggs! Just fancy them on election night.
Diet coke to help counter migraines as I’ll be on keyboard and tv screen. I never drink diet coke.
Also some Comté cheese with pitta and Ryvitas, olives, peppermint tea, special k bars
No alcohol because I don’t touch the stuff
You have the cheek to complain about Leon posts when you post absolute crap constantly, WTF and quel surprise you don't drink, would not go with the quinoa and pea shoots.
The Aldi Cuckoo Clock (the one you said looked like a demented pigeon clock in 2016) is all set too Cockoo the exit poll in at 10PM tomorrow
You deranged,, why would I be in Aldi ever
You have pride and dignity and that's a good thing. You choose a better class of supermarket to steal from.
* Partygate * Boris Johnson lying to Parliament * Mishandling of the pandemic * Matt Hancock and his aide * PPE failures * VIP lanes * Gavin Williamson * Nadine Dorries as Culture Secretary * Suella Braverman’s “invasion” * Braverman’s TWO stints as Home Secretary * Culture wars * Wooing the hard right * Lee Anderson as deputy chairman * Dominic Raab’s holiday during the withdrawal from Afghanistan * Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Brexit benefits * Sunak’s Rwanda shambles * Enshrining in law Rwanda as a ‘safe country’ * Sunak’s five pledges * Sunak’s D-Day fiasco * Sunak calling the election in the rain * NHS waiting lists at record high * GP appointments in disarray * Sewage crisis exposed * Liz Truss imperilling the economy * Rampant inflation * Cost of living crisis * Millions struggling to pays the bills * Foodbanks * Recession * High taxes with breaking public services * Creaking defence * 3 Prime Ministers * 4 Chancellors * 5 Home Secretaries
One current spread price which really surprises me is Spreadex's Coservative/LibDems Seat Supremacy offered at 52 seats to sell and 57 seats to buy.
In view of the fact that a number of PBers believe that the total of LibDems seats won will actually outnumber those won by the Tories, an outcome which is supported by some pollsters' Baxterised findings, this looks to me like a very promising SELL.
But as ever, particularly as regards spread betting, DYOR and be ever mindful of the financial exposure involved!
I saw that; I’m still voting Labour tomorrow as there’s a small, but discernible chance that Priti Patel could lose. However it may well be the last time.
The big forecasting question for this election is not the polls - which seem to be herding towards L 39, C 21, LD 11, Ref 16, Green 7 - but the EC seat predictor, which on those figures gives:
L 462 (274 maj) C 70 L 70 (!) Ref 7 Green 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Others 20
I mean, I'd love it if they were right but put me down as a sceptic.
(Then again, the MPRs...)
It's hard to see how the Lib Dems finish ahead of the Conservatives on half the vote share.
Averaging 12 eve of polls (and excluding the MRP's) we get
Labour 38.8% Conservative 21.0%, Reform 16.5% Lib Dem 10.8%.
The LibDems have spent decades learning to optimise their vote. The Conservatives haven't.
I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately
At thet time of night/morning, I'll probably have a sandwich...
For some inexplicable reason I’ve bought some scotch eggs. I never eat scotch eggs! Just fancy them on election night.
Diet coke to help counter migraines as I’ll be on keyboard and tv screen. I never drink diet coke.
Also some Comté cheese with pitta and Ryvitas, olives, peppermint tea, special k bars
No alcohol because I don’t touch the stuff
You have the cheek to complain about Leon posts when you post absolute crap constantly, WTF and quel surprise you don't drink, would not go with the quinoa and pea shoots.
The Aldi Cuckoo Clock (the one you said looked like a demented pigeon clock in 2016) is all set too Cockoo the exit poll in at 10PM tomorrow
You deranged,, why would I be in Aldi ever
It was my Aldi Cuckoo Clock that you said lookedl like a demented pigeon when I posted it up here.
(Long time ago but I think it was in response to you reslonding "Cuckoo" once too often...)
* Partygate * Boris Johnson lying to Parliament * Mishandling of the pandemic * Matt Hancock and his aide * PPE failures * VIP lanes * Gavin Williamson * Nadine Dorries as Culture Secretary * Suella Braverman’s “invasion” * Braverman’s TWO stints as Home Secretary * Culture wars * Wooing the hard right * Lee Anderson as deputy chairman * Dominic Raab’s holiday during the withdrawal from Afghanistan * Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Brexit benefits * Sunak’s Rwanda shambles * Enshrining in law Rwanda as a ‘safe country’ * Sunak’s five pledges * Sunak’s D-Day fiasco * Sunak calling the election in the rain * NHS waiting lists at record high * GP appointments in disarray * Sewage crisis exposed * Liz Truss imperilling the economy * Rampant inflation * Cost of living crisis * Millions struggling to pays the bills * Foodbanks * Recession * High taxes with breaking public services * Creaking defence * 3 Prime Ministers * 4 Chancellors * 5 Home Secretaries
Jenrick painting over Disney characters in a children's reception centre?
Didn’t Thatcher famously predict that there wouldn’t be a female PM in her lifetime. I’m not sure opening the stitches on the Brexit wound would be wise. We may end up rejoining at some stage but I don’t think it is in our best interests to have that debate now. The only way to rejoin would be via a referendum, as it would be mental to rejoin and sow seeds of more EU grievance.
* Partygate * Boris Johnson lying to Parliament * Mishandling of the pandemic * Matt Hancock and his aide * PPE failures * VIP lanes * Gavin Williamson * Nadine Dorries as Culture Secretary * Suella Braverman’s “invasion” * Braverman’s TWO stints as Home Secretary * Culture wars * Wooing the hard right * Lee Anderson as deputy chairman * Dominic Raab’s holiday during the withdrawal from Afghanistan * Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Brexit benefits * Sunak’s Rwanda shambles * Enshrining in law Rwanda as a ‘safe country’ * Sunak’s five pledges * Sunak’s D-Day fiasco * Sunak calling the election in the rain * NHS waiting lists at record high * GP appointments in disarray * Sewage crisis exposed * Liz Truss imperilling the economy * Rampant inflation * Cost of living crisis * Millions struggling to pays the bills * Foodbanks * Recession * High taxes with breaking public services * Creaking defence * 3 Prime Ministers * 4 Chancellors * 5 Home Secretaries
We can argue the toss over some of those, but generally, you read that list and then you realise why we are on for the result we are tomorrow.
It will, save a big polling error, be an utter catastrophe for the Tories (the exact degree TBC, but in any event catastrophic) and while most results point to something unseen in the modern era it is easy, on reflection, to understand why.
The Tory Party didn’t just conspire to lose this election. It conspired to be demolished.
@Farooq, if it's not too late here is my woeful entry:
In how many seats will: 1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 32 2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 78 3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 12 4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 202 5. Reform lose their deposit? 60 6. Labour lose their deposit? 0
How big: 7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 33001 8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 25001
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 23 10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 654 11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 8
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 10 13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 68 14. Seats will Labour win? 462 15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 72 16. Seats will the SNP win? 15 17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7 18. Seats will DUP win? 6 19. Seats will Reform come second in? 62
What percentage vote: 20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 21.3% 21. Will Reform get across the UK? 13.8% 22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 32.1% 23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 28.3% 24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 42.1% 25. Will Speaker get? 72.1%
* Partygate * Boris Johnson lying to Parliament * Mishandling of the pandemic * Matt Hancock and his aide * PPE failures * VIP lanes * Gavin Williamson * Nadine Dorries as Culture Secretary * Suella Braverman’s “invasion” * Braverman’s TWO stints as Home Secretary * Culture wars * Wooing the hard right * Lee Anderson as deputy chairman * Dominic Raab’s holiday during the withdrawal from Afghanistan * Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Brexit benefits * Sunak’s Rwanda shambles * Enshrining in law Rwanda as a ‘safe country’ * Sunak’s five pledges * Sunak’s D-Day fiasco * Sunak calling the election in the rain * NHS waiting lists at record high * GP appointments in disarray * Sewage crisis exposed * Liz Truss imperilling the economy * Rampant inflation * Cost of living crisis * Millions struggling to pays the bills * Foodbanks * Recession * High taxes with breaking public services * Creaking defence * 3 Prime Ministers * 4 Chancellors * 5 Home Secretaries
Missing Pinchergate, Paterson, tractor wanking man, Kabul doggies, Dom's eye test
(Incidentally, Brighton Pavilion and Bristol Central are next to each other alphabetically. The Greens are going thru the phonebook! Terminator 2: Ecology Day! )
Saw the YouGov reported on Sky News just before leaving for town. What was particularly noteworthy was the suggestion that, relative to the first MRP in early June, the Tories had gone another three dozen seats backwards, splintering to several parties but primarily the Lib Dems. Ed Davey's stunts may be about to reap handsome rewards.
It's also a measure of how low expectations for the Conservatives have sunk that some of us who would like to see them properly trashed will be slightly disappointed if they manage to scrape together as many as 103 seats. Still, not too long to go until the truth is revealed...
Saw the YouGov reported on Sky News just before leaving for town. What was particularly noteworthy was the suggestion that, relative to the first MRP in early June, the Tories had gone another three dozen seats backwards, splintering to several parties but primarily the Lib Dems. Ed Davey's stunts may be about to reap handsome rewards.
It's also a measure of how low expectations for the Conservatives have sunk that some of us who would like to see them properly trashed will be slightly disappointed if they manage to scrape together as many as 103 seats. Still, not too long to go until the truth is revealed...
The Conservative campaign has been useless. No ideas at all.
@Savanta_UK 💻Three in five (61%) UK adults say senior politicians should be able to 'switch off' from their work
🌳This rises to seven in ten (69%) of Conservative voters
2-3 July 2024 2,101 UK adults
🌹UK adults are twice as likely (38%) to say Keir Starmer stopping work at 6pm on a Friday makes them feel more favourably towards him than less (17%)
🤷Four in ten (42%) say it makes no difference to how they feel.
Lol. Another utterly moronic unforced error by the Tories. But @Mexicanpete thought it would be a game changer for Rishi. It is, indeed, is it not, a funny old world.
It's also a measure of how low expectations for the Conservatives have sunk that some of us who would like to see them properly trashed will be slightly disappointed if they manage to scrape together as many as 103 seats.
I will be opening the Chablis if Sunak loses... One must celebrate appropriately
At thet time of night/morning, I'll probably have a sandwich...
For some inexplicable reason I’ve bought some scotch eggs. I never eat scotch eggs! Just fancy them on election night.
Diet coke to help counter migraines as I’ll be on keyboard and tv screen. I never drink diet coke.
Also some Comté cheese with pitta and Ryvitas, olives, peppermint tea, special k bars
No alcohol because I don’t touch the stuff
You have the cheek to complain about Leon posts when you post absolute crap constantly, WTF and quel surprise you don't drink, would not go with the quinoa and pea shoots.
The Aldi Cuckoo Clock (the one you said looked like a demented pigeon clock in 2016) is all set too Cockoo the exit poll in at 10PM tomorrow
You deranged,, why would I be in Aldi ever
You have pride and dignity and that's a good thing. You choose a better class of supermarket to steal from.
Don't give up the day job
No, somebody's got to pay for your pension
All paid up by 50 years contributions and it is only for fripperies , given I lose half of it in tax right away in any case it is a mere bagatelle.
My prediction, after YouGov: Lab 460 40% Tory 70 23%
The rest: No idea. Lots of tactical voting, none of which will help the Tories. The toss up seats will generally go against them.
One of the remaining questions is how efficient the tactical vote will be in very safe Tory seats, where people won't be used to making these decisions. That might be enough to save meaningful numbers for Con.
* Partygate * Boris Johnson lying to Parliament * Mishandling of the pandemic * Matt Hancock and his aide * PPE failures * VIP lanes * Gavin Williamson * Nadine Dorries as Culture Secretary * Suella Braverman’s “invasion” * Braverman’s TWO stints as Home Secretary * Culture wars * Wooing the hard right * Lee Anderson as deputy chairman * Dominic Raab’s holiday during the withdrawal from Afghanistan * Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Brexit benefits * Sunak’s Rwanda shambles * Enshrining in law Rwanda as a ‘safe country’ * Sunak’s five pledges * Sunak’s D-Day fiasco * Sunak calling the election in the rain * NHS waiting lists at record high * GP appointments in disarray * Sewage crisis exposed * Liz Truss imperilling the economy * Rampant inflation * Cost of living crisis * Millions struggling to pays the bills * Foodbanks * Recession * High taxes with breaking public services * Creaking defence * 3 Prime Ministers * 4 Chancellors * 5 Home Secretaries
@Savanta_UK 💻Three in five (61%) UK adults say senior politicians should be able to 'switch off' from their work
🌳This rises to seven in ten (69%) of Conservative voters
2-3 July 2024 2,101 UK adults
🌹UK adults are twice as likely (38%) to say Keir Starmer stopping work at 6pm on a Friday makes them feel more favourably towards him than less (17%)
🤷Four in ten (42%) say it makes no difference to how they feel.
Lol. Another utterly moronic unforced error by the Tories. But @Mexicanpete thought it would be a game changer for Rishi. It is, indeed, is it not, a funny old world.
My prediction, after YouGov: Lab 460 40% Tory 70 23%
The rest: No idea. Lots of tactical voting, none of which will help the Tories. The toss up seats will generally go against them.
The sub 100 Tory seats stuff really does hinge on whether Reform turn up and scythe their vote, and gift some to the LDs and a smaller number to Labour.
There's a good number of safe Tory seats where even very big swings to Labour would still see them through otherwise.
@Savanta_UK 💻Three in five (61%) UK adults say senior politicians should be able to 'switch off' from their work
🌳This rises to seven in ten (69%) of Conservative voters
2-3 July 2024 2,101 UK adults
🌹UK adults are twice as likely (38%) to say Keir Starmer stopping work at 6pm on a Friday makes them feel more favourably towards him than less (17%)
🤷Four in ten (42%) say it makes no difference to how they feel.
Lol. Another utterly moronic unforced error by the Tories. But @Mexicanpete thought it would be a game changer for Rishi. It is, indeed, is it not, a funny old world.
I was quoting Ferrari and Caulfield. Don't shoot the messenger. TSE hinted at lunchtime yesterday there was some cut through. OK it had unravelled by teatime.
Finalising my election predictions while watching Raducanu play at Wimbledon. This is the life. 😊
She is channeling The Labour Party...
I hope this election evisceration for the Conservatives will be cathartic for you Scott and you will go back to being the happy Scott we all remember before 2016. 🙏
Has anyone on here got a strong opinion on how many seats Reform will win, Farage will win Clacton, much to my dismay. Bet 365 are offering 4/7 Reform over 3.5, I must admit I'm tempted, but haven't a clue where those 4 seats might be
@Farooq, if it's not too late here is my woeful entry:
In how many seats will: 1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 32 2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 78 3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 12 4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 202 5. Reform lose their deposit? 60 6. Labour lose their deposit? 0
How big: 7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 33001 8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 25001
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 23 10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 654 11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 8
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 10 13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 68 14. Seats will Labour win? 462 15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 72 16. Seats will the SNP win? 15 17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7 18. Seats will DUP win? 6 19. Seats will Reform come second in? 62
What percentage vote: 20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 21.3% 21. Will Reform get across the UK? 13.8% 22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 32.1% 23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 28.3% 24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 42.1% 25. Will Speaker get? 72.1%
Are you sure about your answer to Q12? You might want to think about Speaker. Unless you think one of the NI parties who won last time or maybe Plaid Cymru will fail to win a seat, it looks low.
Er.. don't know what I did there, meant to put 11. But that was assuming the Speaker didn't count. So I'll go for 12 please.
Also, apols, I copied the questions from someone else's entry and forgot to change Qs 7. and 8. corrected below:
General Election Competition
In how many seats will: 1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 32 2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 78 3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 12 4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 202 5. Reform lose their deposit? 60 6. Labour lose their deposit? 0
How big: 7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 31,023 8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 27,023
How small: 9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 23 10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 654 11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 8
How many: 12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 12 13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 68 14. Seats will Labour win? 462 15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 72 16. Seats will the SNP win? 15 17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7 18. Seats will DUP win? 6 19. Seats will Reform come second in? 62
What percentage vote: 20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 21.3% 21. Will Reform get across the UK? 13.8% 22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 32.1% 23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 28.3% 24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 42.1% 25. Will Speaker get? 72.1%
My prediction, after YouGov: Lab 460 40% Tory 70 23%
The rest: No idea. Lots of tactical voting, none of which will help the Tories. The toss up seats will generally go against them.
One of the remaining questions is how efficient the tactical vote will be in very safe Tory seats, where people won't be used to making these decisions. That might be enough to save meaningful numbers for Con.
I know someone who is advising all his young friends….. he’s one of those people who young people seem to regard as a guru ….. NOT to vote Green, as they’re inclined, but Labour. It could happen in Witham.
Has anyone on here got a strong opinion on how many seats Reform will win, Farage will win Clacton, much to my dismay. Bet 365 are offering 4/7 Reform over 3.5, I must admit I'm tempted, but haven't a clue where those 4 seats might be
Has anyone on here got a strong opinion on how many seats Reform will win, Farage will win Clacton, much to my dismay. Bet 365 are offering 4/7 Reform over 3.5, I must admit I'm tempted, but haven't a clue where those 4 seats might be
You have to ask the question, Labour wtf is wrong with you.
It's ok you will win Guildford and possibly quite comfortably
Yes probably, and Labour have done bugger.all, but that still doesn't answer the question wtf is wrong with them. What the hell are they doing?
Never forget who Labour's real enemies are. Not the Tories.
Yes sadly but their campaign here has been nonsense. OK I accept there will be some locals who can't be arsed to drive the 15 min to Aldershot to help Labour there and want to deliver or canvas in Guildford and basically that is all they have done, doing a little bit in their only ward. They couldn't even be bothered to do an addressed Royal Mail delivery. Now you may say that is due to the cost of the extra leaflets but no because they have paid for the local buses to be covered in a Labour ad with their candidates name on it which must have cost a fortune and is entirely pointless.
And wtf has the candidate been doing going out delivering and canvassing and not going to Aldershot. It is not as if she knows the first thing about Guildford having been parachuted in at the last moment from elsewhere.
None of this makes any sense whatsoever. Now I agree with @londonpubman I think we are going to win Guildford easily and if we don't we are going to crash and burn practically everywhere, because this has been the best local campaign I have been involved in and I have run a couple.
Their activity here is moronic and causes bad blood. I would love to know what @NickPalmer thinks of this.
One current spread price which really surprises me is Spreadex's Coservative/LibDems Seat Supremacy offered at 52 seats to sell and 57 seats to buy.
In view of the fact that a number of PBers believe that the total of LibDems seats won will actually outnumber those won by the Tories, an outcome which is supported by some pollsters' Baxterised findings, this looks to me like a very promising SELL.
But as ever, particularly as regards spread betting, DYOR and be ever mindful of the financial exposure involved!
I have seen too many General Elections with results not as good as expected for the Liberals. So I have decided the target is 30 seats - double the current number (including by-election wins)
I started with a mental target of 25 but have upped that to 30 (plus overtaking SNP in the commons) as a reasonable aspiration.
You can both look forward to at least meeting those two targets
I think LD will get 30 to 50 but there will be some disappointments in there
30 will be enough to beat SNP
That’s the consolation for the LibDems - even an underperformance against some of the more frothy MRPs will still deliver them third party status given that the SNP forecasts range from bad to worse.
The most remarkable stat from all the polls is that recent YouGov suggesting that, given a free choice of preferred party, only 28% would choose Labour. When you think about the untrammelled power they are about to get over our lives, that is truly remarkable.
Has anyone mentioned The Times focus group broadcast yesterday - I only heard replay overnight.
Consisted of undecided voters in safe Con seats (from 50th to 150th safest).
Throughout the focus group, everyone essentially criticised all parties. Then at the end the moderator (from JL Partners) asked each person who they thought they would most likely vote for. Every single person said Con. Moderator said you could not have told this from earlier comments.
Moderator conclusion is that Con vote will hold up better than polls suggest in safe Con seats. Still a landslide but not a wipeout.
I think if you’re undecided at this point you’re basically a Conservative. Small C and Big C.
If you're undecided at this point you're basically not going to vote.
Bloomberg News (via Seattle Times) - Zelenskyy challenges Trump to reveal plans for quick end to war
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Donald Trump should come forward with his plan to quickly end the war with Russia, warning that any proposal must avoid violating the nation’s sovereignty.
“If Trump knows how to finish this war, he should tell us today,” Zelenskyy said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Kyiv on Wednesday. “If there are risks to Ukrainian independence, if we lose statehood — we want to be ready for this, we want to know.”
The former U.S. president, who leads in polls over President Joe Biden ahead of the November election, has boasted that he’ll end the war by the time he’s inaugurated in January. In the televised debate last week, Trump decried the billions of dollars spent on Ukraine’s defense, saying that Kyiv is “not winning the war.” . . .
SSI - Perhaps PB Trump lovers & Putin puppets can fill in the blank? Or perhaps NOT.
You have to ask the question, Labour wtf is wrong with you.
The cosy crooked two-party system is their most treasured possession. Despite the Tories getting to wear the crown for well over half of the time. Way more.
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
Just got a new phone - and in porting over seemingly arbitrary bits and bobs from my old phone, I came across a singularly arresting image. Took me a moment to realise what it was. I'm using my one image of the day to share it. Any guesses what or where this is?
Comments
You have to ask the question, Labour wtf is wrong with you.
Geoff Aberdein (former chief of staff for Alex Salmond): Lab - 29, SNP - 17, Con - 6, Lib - 5
Andy Maciver (former comms director for Scottish Tories): Lab - 28, SNP - 20, Con - 4, Lib- 5
Looks plausible. Neither looking at a meltdown for SNP.
The scramble for SNP Holyrood seats, especially on the list, is going to be brutal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/03/britain-will-not-rejoin-eu-in-my-lifetime-says-starmer
Even had pink champagne on ice to toast the new socialist dawn. Exit poll - NOC was a surprise, and I went to bed with "Tory minority govt".
When we eventually got a Labour government mercifully it wasn't socialist.
We haven't even got a nougat fist
Norstat
Deltapoll
Savanta
Survation final call
More in Common last regular VI
Ipsos tomorrow morning
Maidenhead goes LibDem. Theresa May's old seat.
(Incidentally, Brighton Pavilion and Bristol Central are next to each other alphabetically. The Greens are going thru the phonebook! Terminator 2: Ecology Day! )
Even if she becomes nominee, it may be a while before we see her below 3.0 on Election winner.
I might take the money and run at these odds. See if we can get below 5.0 first.
Since Britain last went to the polls
* Partygate
* Boris Johnson lying to Parliament
* Mishandling of the pandemic
* Matt Hancock and his aide
* PPE failures
* VIP lanes
* Gavin Williamson
* Nadine Dorries as Culture Secretary
* Suella Braverman’s “invasion”
* Braverman’s TWO stints as Home Secretary
* Culture wars
* Wooing the hard right
* Lee Anderson as deputy chairman
* Dominic Raab’s holiday during the withdrawal from Afghanistan
* Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Brexit benefits
* Sunak’s Rwanda shambles
* Enshrining in law Rwanda as a ‘safe country’
* Sunak’s five pledges
* Sunak’s D-Day fiasco
* Sunak calling the election in the rain
* NHS waiting lists at record high
* GP appointments in disarray
* Sewage crisis exposed
* Liz Truss imperilling the economy
* Rampant inflation
* Cost of living crisis
* Millions struggling to pays the bills
* Foodbanks
* Recession
* High taxes with breaking public services
* Creaking defence
* 3 Prime Ministers
* 4 Chancellors
* 5 Home Secretaries
Looks like you'll still have to go through passport controls when you jet in and out of the Cote d'Azur on your multiple trips to your million pound mansion.
Bloke is an oily rag.
However it may well be the last time.
(Long time ago but I think it was in response to you reslonding "Cuckoo" once too often...)
Jenrick...oh I can't be arsed.
It will, save a big polling error, be an utter catastrophe for the Tories (the exact degree TBC, but in any event catastrophic) and while most results point to something unseen in the modern era it is easy, on reflection, to understand why.
The Tory Party didn’t just conspire to lose this election. It conspired to be demolished.
Bad TV Impressions: UK General Election 2024[VIDEO]
https://x.com/KieranCHodgson/status/1808536912111587413
@Farooq, if it's not too late here is my woeful entry:
In how many seats will:
1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 32
2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 78
3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 12
4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 202
5. Reform lose their deposit? 60
6. Labour lose their deposit? 0
How big:
7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 33001
8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 25001
How small:
9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 23
10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 654
11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 8
How many:
12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 10
13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 68
14. Seats will Labour win? 462
15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 72
16. Seats will the SNP win? 15
17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7
18. Seats will DUP win? 6
19. Seats will Reform come second in? 62
What percentage vote:
20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 21.3%
21. Will Reform get across the UK? 13.8%
22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 32.1%
23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 28.3%
24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 42.1%
25. Will Speaker get? 72.1%
💻Three in five (61%) UK adults say senior politicians should be able to 'switch off' from their work
🌳This rises to seven in ten (69%) of Conservative voters
2-3 July 2024
2,101 UK adults
🌹UK adults are twice as likely (38%) to say Keir Starmer stopping work at 6pm on a Friday makes them feel more favourably towards him than less (17%)
🤷Four in ten (42%) say it makes no difference to how they feel.
It's the day before polling day, so time to stick my neck on the line & make some polling and perhaps non-polling predictions.
There's going to be lots of noise and hot takes that age badly, but there are a few we can already see ahead of time that are worth challenging now.
🧵
https://x.com/ChrisHopkins92/status/1808456073906368585
(BTW..I am joking, I thought Cameron and his bit of chillaxing wasn't a bad thing)
Lab 35-37%
Con 22-24%
LD 14-16%
Reform 12-13%
Green 8-9%
SNP 2-3%
PC 1%
Lab 460 40%
Tory 70 23%
The rest: No idea. Lots of tactical voting, none of which will help the Tories. The toss up seats will generally go against them.
It's also a measure of how low expectations for the Conservatives have sunk that some of us who would like to see them properly trashed will be slightly disappointed if they manage to scrape together as many as 103 seats. Still, not too long to go until the truth is revealed...
I have 32 x constituency bets with Scrutinise the challenger
There's a good number of safe Tory seats where even very big swings to Labour would still see them through otherwise.
North Durham:
Labour: 37%
Reform: 28%
Hartlepool:
Labour: 47%
Reform: 30%
Easington:
Labour: 51%
Reform: 28%
NEW THREAD
Also, apols, I copied the questions from someone else's entry and forgot to change Qs 7. and 8. corrected below:
General Election Competition
In how many seats will:
1. Reform beat Conservative (don't count draws)? 32
2. Labour finish 3rd or lower (don't count where they didn't stand)? 78
3. Conservatives lose their deposit? 12
4. Lib Dems lose their deposit? 202
5. Reform lose their deposit? 60
6. Labour lose their deposit? 0
How big:
7. Will the largest winning vote margin be? 31,023
8. Will the biggest notional majority defeated be (only count where the incumbent party stands)? 27,023
How small:
9. Will the smallest winning vote margin be (1st - 2nd)? 23
10. Will the smallest gap between 1st and 3rd be? 654
11. Will the lowest number of votes for any candidate? 8
How many:
12. Parties will be elected (whether or not they take their seats. All true independents are grouped as a single party)? 12
13. Seats will the Conservatives win? 68
14. Seats will Labour win? 462
15. Seats will Lib Dems win? 72
16. Seats will the SNP win? 15
17. Seats will Sinn Fein win? 7
18. Seats will DUP win? 6
19. Seats will Reform come second in? 62
What percentage vote:
20. Will Conservatives get across the UK? 21.3%
21. Will Reform get across the UK? 13.8%
22. Will SNP get in Scotland? 32.1%
23. Will be lowest of any winning candidate? 28.3%
24. Will be highest of any 2nd place candidate? 42.1%
25. Will Speaker get? 72.1%
It could happen in Witham.
This thread has lost its deposit
its!
Standards must be maintained even during impending Starmergeddon.And wtf has the candidate been doing going out delivering and canvassing and not going to Aldershot. It is not as if she knows the first thing about Guildford having been parachuted in at the last moment from elsewhere.
None of this makes any sense whatsoever. Now I agree with @londonpubman I think we are going to win Guildford easily and if we don't we are going to crash and burn practically everywhere, because this has been the best local campaign I have been involved in and I have run a couple.
Their activity here is moronic and causes bad blood. I would love to know what @NickPalmer thinks of this.
The most remarkable stat from all the polls is that recent YouGov suggesting that, given a free choice of preferred party, only 28% would choose Labour. When you think about the untrammelled power they are about to get over our lives, that is truly remarkable.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Donald Trump should come forward with his plan to quickly end the war with Russia, warning that any proposal must avoid violating the nation’s sovereignty.
“If Trump knows how to finish this war, he should tell us today,” Zelenskyy said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Kyiv on Wednesday. “If there are risks to Ukrainian independence, if we lose statehood — we want to be ready for this, we want to know.”
The former U.S. president, who leads in polls over President Joe Biden ahead of the November election, has boasted that he’ll end the war by the time he’s inaugurated in January. In the televised debate last week, Trump decried the billions of dollars spent on Ukraine’s defense, saying that Kyiv is “not winning the war.” . . .
SSI - Perhaps PB Trump lovers & Putin puppets can fill in the blank? Or perhaps NOT.
This thread cannot wait for Brexit Payback Day
Dark Peak.
22 American airmen I think.
Quite sobering if you go and eat your butties with them.
New thread?
Today Mark Cavendish broke the record for number of stages won in the Tour de France.
He has now won 35, which beats the lifetime total of Eddie Merckx which record has stood since 1975.
BBC Report:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/articles/c2q05e2e920o
Finish vid:
https://x.com/LeTour/status/1808532801748127749