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For Boris Johnson fans, in short BJ sucks – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    I see Macron's lot did not drop voteshare in the 3rd overseas district, which includes London. Still has some fans there
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    TimS said:

    Blimey, more from Davey today. Bungee jumping wasn't enough

    https://x.com/skynewsniall/status/1807749638390231226

    Saturday night by Whigfield has never looked so good/bad*

    *Delete as appropriate.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,399
    edited July 1
    IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I need an opinion poll. Getting grumpy.

    Why? Just relax a bit. Election results (you know, actual votes) will be trickling in by just past 11 pm Thursday night. The outcome is not in doubt. Starmer will be kissing the ring on Friday.
    I’m hugely relaxed. After a busy week I’m back in Surrey sitting with dogs watching Wimbledon.

    I just need an opinion poll. Or several.
    Why?
    Duh. Because I enjoy politics and political betting. And I love General Elections. This one in particular. It has been the most enjoyable campaign of my life.
    Elections are exciting when its a close result. This is just plain boring, the only thing of interest is what happens the Conservatives when they lose.
    Elections are exciting when one's own side is looking like winning, or the side one doesn't like is looking like losing. I can see that for Conservative (or SNP) supporters this election would be boring, or at best morbidly fascinating. But for Labour supporters, Reform supporters and - with the usual caveats - Lib Dem supporters this is an exciting election.
    My problem - and I do realise this is a genuine character flaw - is that, in spite of the fact that I am pretty sure the next Parliament is going to be very bad for me financially and possess a lot of risks to my livelihood and ability to support my family - in spite of all of that - there is still within me that anarchist disruptor that Heathener was ascribing to Leon.

    I have often said I am only a Libertarian because I am too frightened to be an anarchist. I view the old Chinese proverb about 'Living in Interesting times' as a blessing rather than the curse it is intended to be. And this is self destructive and stupid but I do recognise it in myself and it is something I can't completely supress.

    So a big bit of me wants to see the Tories get absolutely slaughtered even though it means a Labour Government that will be bad for me and my family.

    A bit of me wants to see Reform gain seats just for the laugh and the horror even though I would not myself vote for them in a million years.

    I am enjoying all the angst of the French election results because it maks life more interesting even though it could be bad for France and the rest of Europe including the UK.

    But all this is the detached observer and I would never actively want to help any of this happen (well except perhaps the destruction of the Tory party but that is for other reasons).

    This is why I am so looking forward to Thursday night and hoping it won't all be a boring damp squip.

    When did Leon hack your account? Except for the LACK of random words in capitals, I’d almost believe it.
    The difference is the lack of shrapnel when things don't go the way I want. :smile:

    Edit.. oh and the self awareness bit. ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    "My Lady Jane" on Prime is utterly barmy.

    And utterly wonderful.

    King Edward and Princess Elizabeth are black, but that sort-of becomes inconsequential when it is revealed that Lady Jane Grey marries a horse. ;)

    When a story is bonkers (or just light hearted) rather than trying for gritty realism that sort of approach works fine.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Interesting. 33yrs old you say? Sounds more like the set of beliefs that are prevalent at Uni.
    Don't forget that 148gers is a lecturer at a uni, and probably still young enough to believe that the cool undergrads they teach are their friends, and hanging out with them in the Uni bar is in no way a bir creepy...
    What's a cool undergrad?
    This argument is bizarre. If you can predict resource scarcity and you are ex hypothesi looking to make long term investments you should be rejoicing. Buy emerging markets and commodity ETFs and a bit of Nvidia. You're now future proof.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,569
    edited July 1
    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.

    Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
    You can't be certain about any of this. Even a relatively small and brief crisis could have global repercussions. If Vietnam's rice bowl continues to have droughts and salination issues...

    The big unknown is new diseases turning up. Bird flu is still bubbling away, under the radar.
    Yep true and if a meteor hits us we will all be wiped out but in the absence of many of your "ifs" then all will be well and in any case 148 was talking about BAU leading to this catastrophe, not some attack of highly trained killer bees.
    BAU is increasing chance of all these things happening as the climate changes.

    You might find agriculture keeps up and global food supply is secure throughout. Even if that is the case, there will be enormous localised disruption..
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    Why would water scarcity INCREASE in a warmer world, which as we all know gives increased moisture in the atmosphere, and more rain?
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,386

    TimS said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I need an opinion poll. Getting grumpy.

    Why? Just relax a bit. Election results (you know, actual votes) will be trickling in by just past 11 pm Thursday night. The outcome is not in doubt. Starmer will be kissing the ring on Friday.
    I’m hugely relaxed. After a busy week I’m back in Surrey sitting with dogs watching Wimbledon.

    I just need an opinion poll. Or several.
    Why?
    Duh. Because I enjoy politics and political betting. And I love General Elections. This one in particular. It has been the most enjoyable campaign of my life.
    Elections are exciting when its a close result. This is just plain boring, the only thing of interest is what happens the Conservatives when they lose.
    Elections are exciting when one's own side is looking like winning, or the side one doesn't like is looking like losing. I can see that for Conservative (or SNP) supporters this election would be boring, or at best morbidly fascinating. But for Labour supporters, Reform supporters and - with the usual caveats - Lib Dem supporters this is an exciting election.
    My problem - and I do realise this is a genuine character flaw - is that, in spite of the fact that I am pretty sure the next Parliament is going to be very bad for me financially and possess a lot of risks to my livelihood and ability to support my family - in spite of all of that - there is still within me that anarchist disruptor that Heathener was ascribing to Leon.

    I have often said I am only a Libertarian because I am too frightened to be an anarchist. I view the old Chinese proverb about 'Living in Interesting times' as a blessing rather than the curse it is intended to be. And this is self destructive and stupid but I do recognise it in myself and it is something I can't completely supress.

    So a big bit of me wants to see the Tories get absolutely slaughtered even though it means a Labour Government that will be bad for me and my family.

    A bit of me wants to see Reform gain seats just for the laugh and the horror even though I would not myself vote for them in a million years.

    I am enjoying all the angst of the French election results because it maks life more interesting even though it could be bad for France and the rest of Europe including the UK.

    But all this is the detached observer and I would never actively want to help any of this happen (well except perhaps the destruction of the Tory party but that is for other reasons).

    This is why I am so looking forward to Thursday night and hoping it won't all be a boring damp squip.

    I think that bit of anarchist exists in all, or most, of us. There was, for example, a bit of me that wanted to see a vote for Brexit, just for the fascination of what would happen. This, despite the fact that I was completely opposed to Brexit on an intellectual level and obviously voted against it.

    I guess it comes from the urge for disruption in one's younger years, when you are more likely than your elders to benefit from a change in the status quo and act accordingly. However, as we mature, most of us learn to behave more rationally, to accept these urges for what they are and not allow ourselves to be driven by them. For that way leads ultimately to disaster.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842

    TOPPING said:

    bobbob said:

    Heathener said:

    bobbob said:

    I’ve read so much about the election but so little is talked about the elephant in the room

    Rishi Sunak is not white

    Some voters will not vote or be v reluctant to vote for a minority PM even if most won’t admit it

    It is reflected in the CON polling and the final election result though

    It’s taboo to even mention it because it’s not PC to mention race and people in their bubbles like to deny racism exists

    Just so we can cut to the chase, what are your view on Gay Rights? And on Ukraine?
    Gay rights are an important civil liberty as people should be able to do they want but some people are obsessed with an issue that doesn’t matter to most people

    You do bring up a relevent point. I don’t think the UK would vote for a gay man as a leader either . They wouldn’t publicly admit that though !

    From what I saw Ukraine weren’t very good in the euros but thats to be expected given the invasion
    I genuinely think you are wrong - and pretty much for the reason you state in your first paragraph. The issue doesn't matter to most people. They would simply not think it mattered whether their potential PM was gay or not. At most after the event there might be a bit of self satisfaction from many that the UK was tolerent enough to have voted for a gay leader in spite of the impression some people try to portray that we are intolerent.

    I would not vote for Sunak now because he is incompetent and lightweight - but I also did not vote for Johnson for the same reason. I would not vote for Patel or Braverman because they are jackbooted authoritarians - but I also did not vote for May for the same reason.

    Some things matter. Others really don't.
    I'm not sure that this is the case, much as we all on here might like to think it is. Plenty of people out there and if we look at the 17-20% who say they might vote for Reform I can't believe that some would hold such views.
    Oh I am sure there is a small element obviously. We know the racists and homophobes exist. But, for example and not wanting to be nice about Reform, whilst there will be racists and homophobes amongst them, that won't account for most of their support. As such the number of votes that could be mustsred to oppose, for example, a gay PM, would be very small and unlikely to influence the outcome.
    I'm not sure I have as much faith as you do in this.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,485
    HYUFD said:

    My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.

    They don't register very much anywhere else.

    Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
    The LDs/Liberals have always been strongest in those types of seats, going back to the 1970s. Richmond was always their strongest seat in London for instance.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,472
    kle4 said:

    "My Lady Jane" on Prime is utterly barmy.

    And utterly wonderful.

    King Edward and Princess Elizabeth are black, but that sort-of becomes inconsequential when it is revealed that Lady Jane Grey marries a horse. ;)

    When a story is bonkers (or just light hearted) rather than trying for gritty realism that sort of approach works fine.
    Indeed. The production values were blooming high as well.

    It made no attempt to be historically accurate (how could it, when the plot involves shape-shifters?), and the narrator says so at the very beginning. I also detect more than a hint of the protestant-catholic Tudor troubles in the series' central conflict.

    It got the mood just right. It's unusual for me to say this, but there might have been a little too much sex in it - apparently it is based on a YA book, and I wouldn't show it to my son. Yet. Which is a shame, as it is very funny.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,955
    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005

    HYUFD said:

    My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.

    They don't register very much anywhere else.

    Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
    What is a Gail's?
    A Greggs with 4x the price and 4x less quantity. Tastes better though.
    Impossible! Greggs is the pinnacle of British street food.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    MattW said:

    FF43 said:

    Hmm double-entedres.

    The interesting takeaway from various vox-pops is that people's antagonism towards Johnson is he made promises he had no intention of meeting. Rather than because of Party gate.

    My contempt for Johnson is that in some things he was pointing in the right direction, but failed to engage slightly and deliver when he could have done so. And that for me is the problem of the current generation of Tory leaders, plus cynical populism and the things that go with that.

    Johnson could have delivered, had he been willing to have a competent chief of staff who could have done everything except the stunts.

    Boris needed a Willie. He thought a willy would do, but it was busily engaged elsewhere.
    Boris was short term gain, long term pain. As the likes of HY were told, very clearly, well in advance.

    That the Tories went for him encapsulates the wider problem with our politics, which offers no incentive to do the right things for the long term when set against a short-term imperative.

    The one good thing about Labour crushing the Tories, as we hope for, is that they realise they have ten years plus in power, and can afford to do some of the longer term stuff that is the right thing, but for which they won’t get thanked any time soon.
    Without Boris we would probably now have PM Corbyn leading a minority Labour government or at best PM Hunt leading a minority Tory government with Brexit still not having got done and Corbyn looking set to win in the polls next time
    Your problem is that too many people will be thinking, ‘how would that be any worse?’
    Not Tory people though
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    "My Lady Jane" on Prime is utterly barmy.

    And utterly wonderful.

    King Edward and Princess Elizabeth are black, but that sort-of becomes inconsequential when it is revealed that Lady Jane Grey marries a horse. ;)

    Sounds like a knock off of The Great

    Asking for a friend - how intimately is lady Jane's marriage portrayed?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,951
    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    Do you think that you personally are at risk of starving to death in a famine?
    No - but I live in the imperial core. What I do think is that there will be a lot more use of state violence, at home and abroad, to ensure that the "right" people still have access to things like food and water, and that those things will be much more expensive / valued more highly than they are now. It's possible that somewhere like the UK, where our ability to continue the average lifestyle based on locally grown products is very difficult, will have more instability than elsewhere - but it's hard to know exactly.
    “Imperial core”? Eh?
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274
    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.

    Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
    You can't be certain about any of this. Even a relatively small and brief crisis could have global repercussions. If Vietnam's rice bowl continues to have droughts and salination issues...

    The big unknown is new diseases turning up. Bird flu is still bubbling away, under the radar.
    Yep true and if a meteor hits us we will all be wiped out but in the absence of many of your "ifs" then all will be well and in any case 148 was talking about BAU leading to this catastrophe, not some attack of highly trained killer bees.
    The Dinosaurs were never wiped out. They are currently residing in Uranus. The Martians are producing a teleport system for them to be sent to earth and wipe us out. They will be unkillable. Not even weapons of mass destruction that are currently buried in the Iraqi desert will stop them. This will be our destiny.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,569

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    Why would water scarcity INCREASE in a warmer world, which as we all know gives increased moisture in the atmosphere, and more rain?
    Isn't the projection that the bits of the world that don't need more rain will get plenty more (the UK), and vice versa. Hence all the concern about massive migration, particularly from sub-saharan Africa.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842
    edited July 1
    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.

    Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
    You can't be certain about any of this. Even a relatively small and brief crisis could have global repercussions. If Vietnam's rice bowl continues to have droughts and salination issues...

    The big unknown is new diseases turning up. Bird flu is still bubbling away, under the radar.
    Yep true and if a meteor hits us we will all be wiped out but in the absence of many of your "ifs" then all will be well and in any case 148 was talking about BAU leading to this catastrophe, not some attack of highly trained killer bees.
    BAU is increasing chance of all these things happening as the climate changes.

    You might find agriculture keeps up and global food supply is secure throughout. Even if that is the case, there will be enormous localised disruption..
    Yeah maybe.

    But we have had a lot of wolf crying.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/26/climate/maldives-islands-climate-change.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    Blimey, more from Davey today. Bungee jumping wasn't enough

    https://x.com/skynewsniall/status/1807749638390231226

    It's going to be the Timewarp, isn't it?
    Very Lib Dem song that one.

    It’s just a jump to the left…
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited July 1
    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    It is such a dumb approach to combatting Farage. Stick to pointing out he doesn't actually have any workable policies for dealing with real concerns people have than labelling a load of voters Nazi sympathisers.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854

    I feel the Lib Dems may get more than 50 seats. Up to 60. Lots of boards in Surrey. Parts of Hampshire. West Sussex and Cheltenham. S. Wiltshire I saw some around Sailsbury area. Not definite on this. What do people on here think?

    When I was working a bellwhether constituency in the 80's, we used to reckon there needed to be 40 LibDem posters to every Tory before we were in trouble. It's virtue signalling to put up a LibDem sign. No risk of getting a brick through the window that you have to factor in by putting up a Conservative poster.

    Posters is what LibDems do.Try and suggest there is a huge groundswell. But as I reminded someone the other day when we were going round a new development with four LibDem signs, "Aye, but the other 63 haven't publically proclaimed who they are voting for..."
    I agree with that post and it and it makes Ed Davey's campaign even smarter than I'd thought. Play to your strengths . Say nothing just show yourself to be a decent bloke with a sense of humour. Absolutely the best idea when facing an opponent considered to be rather unpleasant and humourless
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.

    Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
    You can't be certain about any of this. Even a relatively small and brief crisis could have global repercussions. If Vietnam's rice bowl continues to have droughts and salination issues...

    The big unknown is new diseases turning up. Bird flu is still bubbling away, under the radar.
    Yep true and if a meteor hits us we will all be wiped out but in the absence of many of your "ifs" then all will be well and in any case 148 was talking about BAU leading to this catastrophe, not some attack of highly trained killer bees.
    BAU is increasing chance of all these things happening as the climate changes.

    You might find agriculture keeps up and global food supply is secure throughout. Even if that is the case, there will be enormous localised disruption..
    We’d all better sort out the mess in Ukraine then.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,569
    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.

    Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
    You can't be certain about any of this. Even a relatively small and brief crisis could have global repercussions. If Vietnam's rice bowl continues to have droughts and salination issues...

    The big unknown is new diseases turning up. Bird flu is still bubbling away, under the radar.
    Yep true and if a meteor hits us we will all be wiped out but in the absence of many of your "ifs" then all will be well and in any case 148 was talking about BAU leading to this catastrophe, not some attack of highly trained killer bees.
    BAU is increasing chance of all these things happening as the climate changes.

    You might find agriculture keeps up and global food supply is secure throughout. Even if that is the case, there will be enormous localised disruption..
    Yeah maybe.

    But we have had a lot of wolf crying.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/26/climate/maldives-islands-climate-change.html
    Nice one.

    I've got 60 years left on this planet and I'd like our politicians to make that as tolerable as possible. It would be great if they took stuff like global food crises seriously.
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274

    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    It is such a dumb approach to combatting Farage. Stick to pointing out he doesn't actually have any workable policies for dealing with real concerns people have than labelling a load of voters Nazi sympathisers.
    Sounds like the man is getting desperate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Judging by first round results and the colour map Brittany and nearby area is the South West England of France.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005

    HYUFD said:

    My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.

    They don't register very much anywhere else.

    Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
    I'm confused. How can the presence of a bakery chain in an area indicate its poshness?

    I would have thought that a posh area would have a bakery run either by the same family for eight generations, or some young baking wunderkind who'd studied patisserie at the top French school.

    Gail's ffs. There are more than a hundred of them now.
    And yet it definitely is a thing re Waitrose. Waitrose will build stores with the 'right kind of clientele' - i.e. those that can afford to splash the cash in the supermarket with cornershop prices. Take my area - Westbury, Trowbridge, Frome - no Waitrose. Warminster - Waitrose, and undeniably a more up market town than the others (although Frome is rather bohemian).
    Compare and contrast:

    Otley: Waitrose
    Ilkley: Booths, M&S
    Skipton: M&S
    Keighley: Sainsbury's, Morrisons & Asda
    Bingley: Co-op (and a small M&S at the BP garage)

    Not a complete list, just the highest-level supermarkets in each town
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    I understand that 9,000 of the 14,000 Postal votes in South Devon have been returned.

    Not sure if that tells you much. Other than in 2019, they skewed heavily to the Conservatives.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,569
    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.

    Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
    You can't be certain about any of this. Even a relatively small and brief crisis could have global repercussions. If Vietnam's rice bowl continues to have droughts and salination issues...

    The big unknown is new diseases turning up. Bird flu is still bubbling away, under the radar.
    Yep true and if a meteor hits us we will all be wiped out but in the absence of many of your "ifs" then all will be well and in any case 148 was talking about BAU leading to this catastrophe, not some attack of highly trained killer bees.
    BAU is increasing chance of all these things happening as the climate changes.

    You might find agriculture keeps up and global food supply is secure throughout. Even if that is the case, there will be enormous localised disruption..
    We’d all better sort out the mess in Ukraine then.
    Exactly!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,275

    HYUFD said:

    My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.

    They don't register very much anywhere else.

    Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
    I'm confused. How can the presence of a bakery chain in an area indicate its poshness?

    I would have thought that a posh area would have a bakery run either by the same family for eight generations, or some young baking wunderkind who'd studied patisserie at the top French school.

    Gail's ffs. There are more than a hundred of them now.
    And yet it definitely is a thing re Waitrose. Waitrose will build stores with the 'right kind of clientele' - i.e. those that can afford to splash the cash in the supermarket with cornershop prices. Take my area - Westbury, Trowbridge, Frome - no Waitrose. Warminster - Waitrose, and undeniably a more up market town than the others (although Frome is rather bohemian).
    I don't dispute that Waitrose signifies a level of prosperity, aspiration, and perhaps snobbishness in an area, but not posh. There just isn't enough posh to go around to sustain a large chain of anything.

    That's why there's only one Harrods.

    Gail's is a chain selling the idea of poshness to people with more money than time and interest to find the real bakery gems.

    I'm making a start on exploring the bakery options around here, and there's a lot better options than a huge bakery chain.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    biggles said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    Do you think that you personally are at risk of starving to death in a famine?
    No - but I live in the imperial core. What I do think is that there will be a lot more use of state violence, at home and abroad, to ensure that the "right" people still have access to things like food and water, and that those things will be much more expensive / valued more highly than they are now. It's possible that somewhere like the UK, where our ability to continue the average lifestyle based on locally grown products is very difficult, will have more instability than elsewhere - but it's hard to know exactly.
    “Imperial core”? Eh?
    The language of the revolutionary left (think Wolfie Smith). I cannot recall the exact figures but the UK went from importing around 60% of its food in 1939 to producing over 90% at home in 1945. We could do so again if needed. Maybe need to go back to more seasonal eating, but the opportunities for vertical growing in factories etc are huge.

    Or we could just eat the poor.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    edited July 1
    Eabhal said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    Why would water scarcity INCREASE in a warmer world, which as we all know gives increased moisture in the atmosphere, and more rain?
    Isn't the projection that the bits of the world that don't need more rain will get plenty more (the UK), and vice versa. Hence all the concern about massive migration, particularly from sub-saharan Africa.
    Anywhere that gets it's prevailing weather from an ocean will likely end up wetter - the E&W rainfall for the previous 12 months was almost 1.4 metres - the highest for any 12 month period since records began in the 18th century.
    For the UK climate change = more rain.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,336
    TimS said:

    Blimey, more from Davey today. Bungee jumping wasn't enough

    https://x.com/skynewsniall/status/1807749638390231226

    At last. I've seen somebody whose dad-dancing is worse than mine.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,386
    Eabhal said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    Why would water scarcity INCREASE in a warmer world, which as we all know gives increased moisture in the atmosphere, and more rain?
    Isn't the projection that the bits of the world that don't need more rain will get plenty more (the UK), and vice versa. Hence all the concern about massive migration, particularly from sub-saharan Africa.
    There are also changes such as a weakening jet steam which, as I understand it, is likely to lead to periods in which the weather becomes less changeable, giving us longer periods of very dry or very wet weather. Hence we could end up with flooding one year and drought the next, rather than a more continuous pattern of rainfall.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,269

    HYUFD said:

    My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.

    They don't register very much anywhere else.

    Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
    I'm confused. How can the presence of a bakery chain in an area indicate its poshness?

    I would have thought that a posh area would have a bakery run either by the same family for eight generations, or some young baking wunderkind who'd studied patisserie at the top French school.

    Gail's ffs. There are more than a hundred of them now.
    And yet it definitely is a thing re Waitrose. Waitrose will build stores with the 'right kind of clientele' - i.e. those that can afford to splash the cash in the supermarket with cornershop prices. Take my area - Westbury, Trowbridge, Frome - no Waitrose. Warminster - Waitrose, and undeniably a more up market town than the others (although Frome is rather bohemian).
    Compare and contrast:

    Otley: Waitrose
    Ilkley: Booths, M&S
    Skipton: M&S
    Keighley: Sainsbury's, Morrisons & Asda
    Bingley: Co-op (and a small M&S at the BP garage)

    Not a complete list, just the highest-level supermarkets in each town
    For some of those (Skipton) the reason for no Booths is that no site was available at a time Booths as expanding - hence they went to Ripon where a site was available...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    What swastikas and everything?

    Does Hitler get a big cheer?
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274

    HYUFD said:

    My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.

    They don't register very much anywhere else.

    Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
    What is a Gail's?
    A Greggs with 4x the price and 4x less quantity. Tastes better though.
    Impossible! Greggs is the pinnacle of British street food.
    I feel ill thinking about Greggs.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,020
    edited July 1
    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    Blimey, more from Davey today. Bungee jumping wasn't enough

    https://x.com/skynewsniall/status/1807749638390231226

    It's going to be the Timewarp, isn't it?
    Very Lib Dem song that one.

    It’s just a jump to the left…
    The alternatives may be Starlight Express (on roller skates), or Lettuce Liz if it escapes from the Glee Club. I can't see Davey on the tape.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4HWm8DpwOs
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365

    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    What swastikas and everything?

    Does Hitler get a big cheer?
    Just wait until the Leni Riefenstahl film !
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    Eabhal said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    Why would water scarcity INCREASE in a warmer world, which as we all know gives increased moisture in the atmosphere, and more rain?
    Isn't the projection that the bits of the world that don't need more rain will get plenty more (the UK), and vice versa. Hence all the concern about massive migration, particularly from sub-saharan Africa.
    There was a kerfuffle about this a few years back with Syria. Blaming the Syrian crisis on drought, but it was overblown. We have the ability to mitigate most of this if we are prepared to pay for it.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,742

    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    It is such a dumb approach to combatting Farage. Stick to pointing out he doesn't actually have any workable policies for dealing with real concerns people have than labelling a load of voters Nazi sympathisers.
    On the contrary, the Tories should have been clear all along that these people were neo-Nazis, rather than pandering to them in the hope of gaining a few miserable votes.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.

    Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
    You can't be certain about any of this. Even a relatively small and brief crisis could have global repercussions. If Vietnam's rice bowl continues to have droughts and salination issues...

    The big unknown is new diseases turning up. Bird flu is still bubbling away, under the radar.
    Yep true and if a meteor hits us we will all be wiped out but in the absence of many of your "ifs" then all will be well and in any case 148 was talking about BAU leading to this catastrophe, not some attack of highly trained killer bees.
    BAU is increasing chance of all these things happening as the climate changes.

    You might find agriculture keeps up and global food supply is secure throughout. Even if that is the case, there will be enormous localised disruption..
    Yeah maybe.

    But we have had a lot of wolf crying.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/26/climate/maldives-islands-climate-change.html
    It isn't "crying wolf" to look at the data at hand, make a prediction based on your understanding of that data, and have the prediction not happen. It's part and parcel of the scientific method. And on this issue it's not necessarily an argument for everything being hunky dory - sea level rises are happening but because the ice caps are also melting at greater rates then during other periods of higher temperature (because the temperature rises happening now are much faster than over the "natural cycle") it has impacted weather and other aspects of the climate cycle in atypical ways. So, for instance, the quick increase in more extreme weather may mean that deposits are keeping up with erosion in places like the Maldives because erosion is happening faster elsewhere and collecting at the Maldives at a similarly increased rate.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,934

    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    What swastikas and everything?

    Does Hitler get a big cheer?
    Indiana Jones turns up, gets caught in the crowd and suddenly finds himself face to face with Nigel Farage, holding a book containing top secret details of undercover actors in the pay of Channel 4. Farage takes the book and signs his autograph. Phew, that was close!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I understand that 9,000 of the 14,000 Postal votes in South Devon have been returned.

    Not sure if that tells you much. Other than in 2019, they skewed heavily to the Conservatives.

    64% turnout of postal with 2 days to go. Not bad
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    Well nobody can accuse PB of being boring. The other week we argued over the quality (or lack of) of pizza chains. Today its bakery chains.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842
    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.

    Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
    You can't be certain about any of this. Even a relatively small and brief crisis could have global repercussions. If Vietnam's rice bowl continues to have droughts and salination issues...

    The big unknown is new diseases turning up. Bird flu is still bubbling away, under the radar.
    Yep true and if a meteor hits us we will all be wiped out but in the absence of many of your "ifs" then all will be well and in any case 148 was talking about BAU leading to this catastrophe, not some attack of highly trained killer bees.
    BAU is increasing chance of all these things happening as the climate changes.

    You might find agriculture keeps up and global food supply is secure throughout. Even if that is the case, there will be enormous localised disruption..
    Yeah maybe.

    But we have had a lot of wolf crying.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/26/climate/maldives-islands-climate-change.html
    Nice one.

    I've got 60 years left on this planet and I'd like our politicians to make that as tolerable as possible. It would be great if they took stuff like global food crises seriously.
    Do we have a global food crisis right now?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365
    edited July 1
    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    It is such a dumb approach to combatting Farage. Stick to pointing out he doesn't actually have any workable policies for dealing with real concerns people have than labelling a load of voters Nazi sympathisers.
    On the contrary, the Tories should have been clear all along that these people were neo-Nazis, rather than pandering to them in the hope of gaining a few miserable votes.
    Tories ? A lot of Reform supporters are ex-Labour, the people Mandelson belittled by saying they had nowhere else to go.

    Until they did.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933
    edited July 1
    Here it is.
    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf
    ..Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature
    of Presidential power entitles a former President to absolute immunity
    from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclu-
    sive constitutional authority. And he is entitled to at least presump-
    tive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts. There is no
    immunity for unofficial acts...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Roger said:

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1807720494126227474?s=46

    Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.

    19th safest Tory seat.

    If you were running those ads your biggest problem would be having to mention the name 'Priti Patel'. I don't know the constituency but that name alone would surely be a call to action for every potential voter to hunt for her nearest challenger
    LOL if I posted that, you'd be calling me a racist.
    Bizarre post
    It's ok, politics is not your forte.
    Oooh Alan is rattled and lashing out at people.

    The idea that Sunak and Starmer are the same is bollocks.

    That aside, this is an incredibly exciting election. It’s a seachange and they are rarer’s than hen’s teeth. 1979 and 1997. That, alone, means it is extremely exciting.

    Add to that the potential meltdown for the tories, the battle for 2nd place, the apparent surge of Reform, the LibDems in the blue wall, the personalities including Nigel Farage in Clacton and JC in Islington North and it’s incredibly exciting.

    But not for you apparently. Now why might that be? Lolz.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,497
    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    Do you think that you personally are at risk of starving to death in a famine?
    No - but I live in the imperial core. What I do think is that there will be a lot more use of state violence, at home and abroad, to ensure that the "right" people still have access to things like food and water, and that those things will be much more expensive / valued more highly than they are now. It's possible that somewhere like the UK, where our ability to continue the average lifestyle based on locally grown products is very difficult, will have more instability than elsewhere - but it's hard to know exactly.
    So your concern is more that you will see more bad things on your feed and it will make you feel more existential guilt?
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274
    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.

    Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
    You can't be certain about any of this. Even a relatively small and brief crisis could have global repercussions. If Vietnam's rice bowl continues to have droughts and salination issues...

    The big unknown is new diseases turning up. Bird flu is still bubbling away, under the radar.
    Yep true and if a meteor hits us we will all be wiped out but in the absence of many of your "ifs" then all will be well and in any case 148 was talking about BAU leading to this catastrophe, not some attack of highly trained killer bees.
    BAU is increasing chance of all these things happening as the climate changes.

    You might find agriculture keeps up and global food supply is secure throughout. Even if that is the case, there will be enormous localised disruption..
    Yeah maybe.

    But we have had a lot of wolf crying.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/26/climate/maldives-islands-climate-change.html
    Nice one.

    I've got 60 years left on this planet and I'd like our politicians to make that as tolerable as possible. It would be great if they took stuff like global food crises seriously.
    Do we have a global food crisis right now?
    Yes. Big Macs are currently unavailable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.

    They don't register very much anywhere else.

    Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
    The LDs/Liberals have always been strongest in those types of seats, going back to the 1970s. Richmond was always their strongest seat in London for instance.
    Even more so in the West country though, now less so there and more the posher seats in the SE
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.

    Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
    You can't be certain about any of this. Even a relatively small and brief crisis could have global repercussions. If Vietnam's rice bowl continues to have droughts and salination issues...

    The big unknown is new diseases turning up. Bird flu is still bubbling away, under the radar.
    Yep true and if a meteor hits us we will all be wiped out but in the absence of many of your "ifs" then all will be well and in any case 148 was talking about BAU leading to this catastrophe, not some attack of highly trained killer bees.
    BAU is increasing chance of all these things happening as the climate changes.

    You might find agriculture keeps up and global food supply is secure throughout. Even if that is the case, there will be enormous localised disruption..
    Yeah maybe.

    But we have had a lot of wolf crying.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/26/climate/maldives-islands-climate-change.html
    I have no idea if the Maldive inhabitants genuinely believed that their lands would disappear, or if it was just a cynical way to extract money (president under the water etc).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365
    Heathener said:

    Roger said:

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1807720494126227474?s=46

    Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.

    19th safest Tory seat.

    If you were running those ads your biggest problem would be having to mention the name 'Priti Patel'. I don't know the constituency but that name alone would surely be a call to action for every potential voter to hunt for her nearest challenger
    LOL if I posted that, you'd be calling me a racist.
    Bizarre post
    It's ok, politics is not your forte.
    Oooh Alan is rattled and lashing out at people.

    The idea that Sunak and Starmer are the same is bollocks.

    That aside, this is an incredibly exciting election. It’s a seachange and they are rarer’s than hen’s teeth. 1979 and 1997. That, alone, means it is extremely exciting.

    Add to that the potential meltdown for the tories, the battle for 2nd place, the apparent surge of Reform, the LibDems in the blue wall, the personalities including Nigel Farage in Clacton and JC in Islington North and it’s incredibly exciting.

    But not for you apparently. Now why might that be? Lolz.

    Yawn
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited July 1
    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    It is such a dumb approach to combatting Farage. Stick to pointing out he doesn't actually have any workable policies for dealing with real concerns people have than labelling a load of voters Nazi sympathisers.
    On the contrary, the Tories should have been clear all along that these people were neo-Nazis, rather than pandering to them in the hope of gaining a few miserable votes.
    The 15-20% who might vote Reform aren't neo-nazis. The number of genuine far right people in the UK is very small, much smaller than say France or Germany. Labelling the voters as such doesn't help you get their vote back.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679
    edited July 1
    CNN just published SC judgement. 'The Supreme Court ruled Monday that former presidents are entitled to immunity from prosecution for official actions – but not his private conduct.'
    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-immunity-supreme-court-decision-07-01-24/index.html
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    It is such a dumb approach to combatting Farage. Stick to pointing out he doesn't actually have any workable policies for dealing with real concerns people have than labelling a load of voters Nazi sympathisers.
    On the contrary, the Tories should have been clear all along that these people were neo-Nazis, rather than pandering to them in the hope of gaining a few miserable votes.
    Tories ? A lot of Reform supporters are ex-Labour, the people Mandelson belittled by saying they had nowhere else to go.

    Until they did.
    Yes. Pete. Nostradamus part 2. All roads lead to Mandi.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,269
    Nigelb said:

    Here it is.
    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf
    ..Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature
    of Presidential power entitles a former President to absolute immunity
    from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclu-
    sive constitutional authority. And he is entitled to at least presump-
    tive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts. There is no
    immunity for unofficial acts...

    So basically Biden could order the Supreme court and Trump to be killed and there is no comeback..
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    It is such a dumb approach to combatting Farage. Stick to pointing out he doesn't actually have any workable policies for dealing with real concerns people have than labelling a load of voters Nazi sympathisers.
    On the contrary, the Tories should have been clear all along that these people were neo-Nazis, rather than pandering to them in the hope of gaining a few miserable votes.
    That's a problem when your youth wing and ascendant politicians are seeped in far right / fascistic talking points and memes. But on principle you are right - it's what we're seeing in France now. Macron upheld the economic status quo and legitimised all of Le Pen's talking points on immigration and such, and instead treat the talking points of the left as beyond the pale. Pandering to the far right doesn't placate them, whereas meeting peoples' material needs generally keeps most people happy.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,742

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    It is such a dumb approach to combatting Farage. Stick to pointing out he doesn't actually have any workable policies for dealing with real concerns people have than labelling a load of voters Nazi sympathisers.
    On the contrary, the Tories should have been clear all along that these people were neo-Nazis, rather than pandering to them in the hope of gaining a few miserable votes.
    Tories ? A lot of Reform supporters are ex-Labour, the people Mandelson belittled by saying they had nowhere else to go.

    Until they did.
    Do try to follow.

    I'm not talking about the voters - I'm talking about Tory politicians.

    They are the ones who have been pandering to the neo-Nazis and stirring up xenophobia for their own selfish ends.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089

    Eabhal said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    Why would water scarcity INCREASE in a warmer world, which as we all know gives increased moisture in the atmosphere, and more rain?
    Isn't the projection that the bits of the world that don't need more rain will get plenty more (the UK), and vice versa. Hence all the concern about massive migration, particularly from sub-saharan Africa.
    There are also changes such as a weakening jet steam which, as I understand it, is likely to lead to periods in which the weather becomes less changeable, giving us longer periods of very dry or very wet weather. Hence we could end up with flooding one year and drought the next, rather than a more continuous pattern of rainfall.
    We're not near any dry records, 1976 remains completely unmatched for dryness. That was achieved with a cool atlantic, not something we will see any time soon.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    It is such a dumb approach to combatting Farage. Stick to pointing out he doesn't actually have any workable policies for dealing with real concerns people have than labelling a load of voters Nazi sympathisers.
    On the contrary, the Tories should have been clear all along that these people were neo-Nazis, rather than pandering to them in the hope of gaining a few miserable votes.
    The 15-20% who might vote Reform aren't neo-nazis. The number of genuine far right people in the UK is very small, much smaller than say France or Germany.
    far right is as far right says and does....
  • eekeek Posts: 28,269
    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.

    Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
    You can't be certain about any of this. Even a relatively small and brief crisis could have global repercussions. If Vietnam's rice bowl continues to have droughts and salination issues...

    The big unknown is new diseases turning up. Bird flu is still bubbling away, under the radar.
    Yep true and if a meteor hits us we will all be wiped out but in the absence of many of your "ifs" then all will be well and in any case 148 was talking about BAU leading to this catastrophe, not some attack of highly trained killer bees.
    BAU is increasing chance of all these things happening as the climate changes.

    You might find agriculture keeps up and global food supply is secure throughout. Even if that is the case, there will be enormous localised disruption..
    Yeah maybe.

    But we have had a lot of wolf crying.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/26/climate/maldives-islands-climate-change.html
    Nice one.

    I've got 60 years left on this planet and I'd like our politicians to make that as tolerable as possible. It would be great if they took stuff like global food crises seriously.
    Do we have a global food crisis right now?
    Is that the best you can come up with - we don't have a problem now so we won't in the future regardless of what happens to the climate?

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,916

    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    What swastikas and everything?

    Does Hitler get a big cheer?
    I believe AH had a lot of young woman fainting and wetting their knickers at his rallies.

    Different age range for Nige, and unclear as to whether the fainting and knicker wetting is just all in a day's work for his groupies.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933
    Nigelb said:

    Here it is.
    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf
    ..Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature
    of Presidential power entitles a former President to absolute immunity
    from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclu-
    sive constitutional authority. And he is entitled to at least presump-
    tive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts. There is no
    immunity for unofficial acts...

    JUSTICE SOTOMAYOR, with whom JUSTICE KAGAN and
    JUSTICE JACKSON join, dissenting.
    Today’s decision to grant former Presidents criminal im-
    munity reshapes the institution of the Presidency. It makes
    a mockery of the principle, foundational to our Constitution
    and system of Government, that no man is above the law.
    Relying on little more than its own misguided wisdom about
    the need for “bold and unhesitating action” by the Presi-
    dent, ante, at 3, 13, the Court gives former President Trump
    all the immunity he asked for and more. Because our Con-
    stitution does not shield a former President from answering
    for criminal and treasonous acts, I dissent...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,007
    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    Do you think that you personally are at risk of starving to death in a famine?
    No - but I live in the imperial core...
    Thinks

    Thinks

    Coruscant????

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.

    They don't register very much anywhere else.

    Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
    The LDs/Liberals have always been strongest in those types of seats, going back to the 1970s. Richmond was always their strongest seat in London for instance.
    Even more so in the West country though, now less so there and more the posher seats in the SE
    their footprint in the NW has also shifted, not that long ago Rochdale and Liverpool Wavertree were LD seats, now they are more Cheadle and Lake District...
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274

    Well nobody can accuse PB of being boring. The other week we argued over the quality (or lack of) of pizza chains. Today its bakery chains.

    Pizza Express is no good. We need a quality Italian Pizza chain.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346
    Perhaps Boris's detractors on this board could explain the disparity between the two past headers. If Boris was a crap PM who was heading for a Sunak-level GE shellacking, why is there such a desparate need for him to return to the campaign trail from the holiday which Sunak so kindly ensured he could take more of? Surely he would just be cramping Sunak's style and he should stay away and leave the current cabinet to secure the ringing endorsement they so deserve?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    It is such a dumb approach to combatting Farage. Stick to pointing out he doesn't actually have any workable policies for dealing with real concerns people have than labelling a load of voters Nazi sympathisers.
    On the contrary, the Tories should have been clear all along that these people were neo-Nazis, rather than pandering to them in the hope of gaining a few miserable votes.
    Tories ? A lot of Reform supporters are ex-Labour, the people Mandelson belittled by saying they had nowhere else to go.

    Until they did.
    Do try to follow.

    I'm not talking about the voters - I'm talking about Tory politicians.

    They are the ones who have been pandering to the neo-Nazis and stirring up xenophobia for their own selfish ends.
    Well in a strange land where such people exist Im sure youre right but that is not the UK, We dont have Nazis, we have few Nazi politicians and consistently we are one of the least racist countries on the plant.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Here it is.
    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf
    ..Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature
    of Presidential power entitles a former President to absolute immunity
    from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclu-
    sive constitutional authority. And he is entitled to at least presump-
    tive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts. There is no
    immunity for unofficial acts...

    JUSTICE SOTOMAYOR, with whom JUSTICE KAGAN and
    JUSTICE JACKSON join, dissenting.
    Today’s decision to grant former Presidents criminal im-
    munity reshapes the institution of the Presidency. It makes
    a mockery of the principle, foundational to our Constitution
    and system of Government, that no man is above the law.
    Relying on little more than its own misguided wisdom about
    the need for “bold and unhesitating action” by the Presi-
    dent, ante, at 3, 13, the Court gives former President Trump
    all the immunity he asked for and more. Because our Con-
    stitution does not shield a former President from answering
    for criminal and treasonous acts, I dissent...
    ...The Court now confronts a question it has never had to
    answer in the Nation’s history: Whether a former President
    enjoys immunity from federal criminal prosecution. The
    majority thinks he should, and so it invents an atextual,
    ahistorical, and unjustifiable immunity that puts the Pres-
    ident above the law.
    The majority makes three moves that, in effect, com-
    pletely insulate Presidents from criminal liability. First,
    the majority creates absolute immunity for the President’s
    exercise of “core constitutional powers.” Ante, at 6. This
    holding is unnecessary on the facts of the indictment, and
    the majority’s attempt to apply it to the facts expands the
    concept of core powers beyond any recognizable bounds. In
    any event, it is quickly eclipsed by the second move, which
    is to create expansive immunity for all “official act[s].”
    Ante, at 14. Whether described as presumptive or absolute,
    under the majority’s rule, a President’s use of any official
    power for any purpose, even the most corrupt, is immune
    from prosecution. That is just as bad as it sounds, and it is
    baseless. Finally, the majority declares that evidence con-
    cerning acts for which the President is immune can play no
    role in any criminal prosecution against him. See ante, at
    30–32. That holding, which will prevent the Government
    from using a President’s official acts to prove knowledge or
    intent in prosecuting private offenses, is nonsensical...
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    SCOTUS are just trolling at this point…
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,493
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.

    They don't register very much anywhere else.

    Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
    The LDs/Liberals have always been strongest in those types of seats, going back to the 1970s. Richmond was always their strongest seat in London for instance.
    Tim Farron's seat has no Waitrose. But of course has a Booths. It may be that, like the two species of crows in Britain, you will get one but not both. My chavish bit of Cumbria has none of these, but no-one will want to know about our ultra local butchers, bakers, candlestick makers, etc.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    edited July 1
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Here it is.
    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf
    ..Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature
    of Presidential power entitles a former President to absolute immunity
    from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclu-
    sive constitutional authority. And he is entitled to at least presump-
    tive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts. There is no
    immunity for unofficial acts...

    So basically Biden could order the Supreme court and Trump to be killed and there is no comeback..
    ROBERTS, C. J., delivered the opinion of the Court, in which THOMAS,
    ALITO, GORSUCH, and KAVANAUGH, JJ., joined in full, and in which BARRETT, J., joined except as to Part III–C. THOMAS, J., filed a concurring
    opinion. BARRETT, J., filed an opinion concurring in part. SOTOMAYOR,
    J., filed a dissenting opinion, in which KAGAN and JACKSON, JJ., joined.
    JACKSON, J., filed a dissenting opinion

    5-3 as I almost predicted, only bit I got wrong was that Alito didn't join Thomas in his presumably more Trumpite than the remainder opinion. Oh and looking at it Barrett presumably more moderate.
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.

    They don't register very much anywhere else.

    Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
    The LDs/Liberals have always been strongest in those types of seats, going back to the 1970s. Richmond was always their strongest seat in London for instance.
    Even more so in the West country though, now less so there and more the posher seats in the SE
    their footprint in the NW has also shifted, not that long ago Rochdale and Liverpool Wavertree were LD seats, now they are more Cheadle and Lake District...
    Didsbury?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679
    HYUFD said:

    CNN just published SC judgement. 'The Supreme Court ruled Monday that former presidents are entitled to immunity from prosecution for official actions – but not his private conduct.'
    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-immunity-supreme-court-decision-07-01-24/index.html

    "Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of Presidential power entitles a former President to absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority. And he is entitled to at least presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts. There is no immunity for unofficial acts," the ruling says.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cw0y5228v1yt
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484

    HYUFD said:

    My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.

    They don't register very much anywhere else.

    Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
    I'm confused. How can the presence of a bakery chain in an area indicate its poshness?

    I would have thought that a posh area would have a bakery run either by the same family for eight generations, or some young baking wunderkind who'd studied patisserie at the top French school.

    Gail's ffs. There are more than a hundred of them now.
    And yet it definitely is a thing re Waitrose. Waitrose will build stores with the 'right kind of clientele' - i.e. those that can afford to splash the cash in the supermarket with cornershop prices. Take my area - Westbury, Trowbridge, Frome - no Waitrose. Warminster - Waitrose, and undeniably a more up market town than the others (although Frome is rather bohemian).
    I don't dispute that Waitrose signifies a level of prosperity, aspiration, and perhaps snobbishness in an area, but not posh. There just isn't enough posh to go around to sustain a large chain of anything.

    That's why there's only one Harrods.
    I remember seeing the one in Buenos Aires. Apparently it closed in 1998.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Here it is.
    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf
    ..Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature
    of Presidential power entitles a former President to absolute immunity
    from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclu-
    sive constitutional authority. And he is entitled to at least presump-
    tive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts. There is no
    immunity for unofficial acts...

    So basically Biden could order the Supreme court and Trump to be killed and there is no comeback..
    Yes.

    It is an abominable decision, which basically dares Presidents to abuse their powers for fear of their opponents doing so in turn.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    @Richard_Tyndall thanks for your interesting and thoughtful post.

    Funnily enough I think I’ve got an anarchist streak too, certainly a recalcitrant one when it comes to State interference of civil liberties.

    c.f. @Leon
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,742

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    It is such a dumb approach to combatting Farage. Stick to pointing out he doesn't actually have any workable policies for dealing with real concerns people have than labelling a load of voters Nazi sympathisers.
    On the contrary, the Tories should have been clear all along that these people were neo-Nazis, rather than pandering to them in the hope of gaining a few miserable votes.
    The 15-20% who might vote Reform aren't neo-nazis. The number of genuine far right people in the UK is very small, much smaller than say France or Germany. Labelling the voters as such doesn't help you get their vote back.
    We're talking about the Reform rallies. It's the politicians who are neo-Nazis.

    Their support would have been minimal if the Tories hadn't pandered to them, for their own self-serving reasons.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    Eabhal said:

    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    Most people I know my age, even those not on the left, believe some version of this.

    And I didn't say "end global capitalism" I said "unable to function as it currently does". And that's because resource scarcity is going to get much worse over the next few decades.
    Which resources in particular are you worried about?
    Food scarcity is going to increase in the next few decades; we are already seeing drought and flooding hit wheat production globally, and that looks set to get worse. Water scarcity will increase globally as the planet gets warmer. If the Gulf Stream weakens enough, our farming specifically will go haywire
    No it won't. Food production is going to continue going from strength to strength.

    Any diminution of food production will be when dimwitted governments decide to implement policies such as the Environmental Stewardship Scheme which takes arable or land out of production. But there is always Tescos other countries.
    You can't be certain about any of this. Even a relatively small and brief crisis could have global repercussions. If Vietnam's rice bowl continues to have droughts and salination issues...

    The big unknown is new diseases turning up. Bird flu is still bubbling away, under the radar.
    Yep true and if a meteor hits us we will all be wiped out but in the absence of many of your "ifs" then all will be well and in any case 148 was talking about BAU leading to this catastrophe, not some attack of highly trained killer bees.
    BAU is increasing chance of all these things happening as the climate changes.

    You might find agriculture keeps up and global food supply is secure throughout. Even if that is the case, there will be enormous localised disruption..
    Yeah maybe.

    But we have had a lot of wolf crying.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/26/climate/maldives-islands-climate-change.html
    Nice one.

    I've got 60 years left on this planet and I'd like our politicians to make that as tolerable as possible. It would be great if they took stuff like global food crises seriously.
    Do we have a global food crisis right now?
    Daddy couldn't get any good brie.

    Definitely a crisis.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,734
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    It is such a dumb approach to combatting Farage. Stick to pointing out he doesn't actually have any workable policies for dealing with real concerns people have than labelling a load of voters Nazi sympathisers.
    On the contrary, the Tories should have been clear all along that these people were neo-Nazis, rather than pandering to them in the hope of gaining a few miserable votes.
    Tories ? A lot of Reform supporters are ex-Labour, the people Mandelson belittled by saying they had nowhere else to go.

    Until they did.
    Do try to follow.

    I'm not talking about the voters - I'm talking about Tory politicians.

    They are the ones who have been pandering to the neo-Nazis and stirring up xenophobia for their own selfish ends.
    I think the argument that everyone would love immigrants were it not for Tory politicians is a very odd one, except in the narrow sense that the anger about immigration is to a large extent because under this government so much immigration has happened.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,772

    Roger said:

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1807720494126227474?s=46

    Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.

    19th safest Tory seat.

    If you were running those ads your biggest problem would be having to mention the name 'Priti Patel'. I don't know the constituency but that name alone would surely be a call to action for every potential voter to hunt for her nearest challenger
    LOL if I posted that, you'd be calling me a racist.
    ??? So we can't attack someone's politics now if they aren't white? Since when did the right go woke?

    I don't care what colour someone's skin is they get treated the same by me.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,269

    Well nobody can accuse PB of being boring. The other week we argued over the quality (or lack of) of pizza chains. Today its bakery chains.

    Pizza Express is no good. We need a quality Italian Pizza chain.
    Something like Rudy's you mean - the pizza ain't bad but Rudy's Pale Draught is very nice..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089

    SCOTUS are just trolling at this point…

    Judges and the rule of law are infallible according to plenty on here. It's complete tosh in the USA and it's an absurd position here.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    edited July 1
    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.

    They don't register very much anywhere else.

    Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
    The LDs/Liberals have always been strongest in those types of seats, going back to the 1970s. Richmond was always their strongest seat in London for instance.
    Tim Farron's seat has no Waitrose. But of course has a Booths. It may be that, like the two species of crows in Britain, you will get one but not both. My chavish bit of Cumbria has none of these, but no-one will want to know about our ultra local butchers, bakers, candlestick makers, etc.
    I miss not having a Waitrose near me...

    or is that "I miss having a Waitrose near me"...

    Pedants, please help...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365
    kjh said:

    Roger said:

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1807720494126227474?s=46

    Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.

    19th safest Tory seat.

    If you were running those ads your biggest problem would be having to mention the name 'Priti Patel'. I don't know the constituency but that name alone would surely be a call to action for every potential voter to hunt for her nearest challenger
    LOL if I posted that, you'd be calling me a racist.
    ??? So we can't attack someone's politics now if they aren't white? Since when did the right go woke?

    I don't care what colour someone's skin is they get treated the same by me.
    Even funnier
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,485
    Forecast Lab maj up to 290 with ElectoralCalculus.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679
    edited July 1
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Here it is.
    https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf
    ..Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature
    of Presidential power entitles a former President to absolute immunity
    from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclu-
    sive constitutional authority. And he is entitled to at least presump-
    tive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts. There is no
    immunity for unofficial acts...

    So basically Biden could order the Supreme court and Trump to be killed and there is no comeback..
    Yes.

    It is an abominable decision, which basically dares Presidents to abuse their powers for fear of their opponents doing so in turn.
    Only if an official act within the powers of the Presidency, the SC affirmed there is no immunity for private, unofficial acts outside the constitutional powers of the Presidency. So lots of room for lawyers to debate which of Trump's acts were official and which unofficial
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,734
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    CNN just published SC judgement. 'The Supreme Court ruled Monday that former presidents are entitled to immunity from prosecution for official actions – but not his private conduct.'
    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-immunity-supreme-court-decision-07-01-24/index.html

    "Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of Presidential power entitles a former President to absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority. And he is entitled to at least presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts. There is no immunity for unofficial acts," the ruling says.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cw0y5228v1yt
    That's so trouble-making.

    Trump was allowed to forment insurrection because he thought that there had been a threat to the constitution?
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 478
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    CNN just published SC judgement. 'The Supreme Court ruled Monday that former presidents are entitled to immunity from prosecution for official actions – but not his private conduct.'
    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-immunity-supreme-court-decision-07-01-24/index.html

    "Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of Presidential power entitles a former President to absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority. And he is entitled to at least presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts. There is no immunity for unofficial acts," the ruling says.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cw0y5228v1yt
    That is madness ...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,742

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    It is such a dumb approach to combatting Farage. Stick to pointing out he doesn't actually have any workable policies for dealing with real concerns people have than labelling a load of voters Nazi sympathisers.
    On the contrary, the Tories should have been clear all along that these people were neo-Nazis, rather than pandering to them in the hope of gaining a few miserable votes.
    Tories ? A lot of Reform supporters are ex-Labour, the people Mandelson belittled by saying they had nowhere else to go.

    Until they did.
    Do try to follow.

    I'm not talking about the voters - I'm talking about Tory politicians.

    They are the ones who have been pandering to the neo-Nazis and stirring up xenophobia for their own selfish ends.
    Well in a strange land where such people exist Im sure youre right but that is not the UK, We dont have Nazis, we have few Nazi politicians and consistently we are one of the least racist countries on the plant.
    "We don't have Nazis". Fool.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @elliottengage

    Tory Candidate In Clacton Says Reform Rallies Are "Reminiscent" Of "Nuremberg" Rallies

    https://x.com/elliottengage/status/1807780866107609564

    It is such a dumb approach to combatting Farage. Stick to pointing out he doesn't actually have any workable policies for dealing with real concerns people have than labelling a load of voters Nazi sympathisers.
    On the contrary, the Tories should have been clear all along that these people were neo-Nazis, rather than pandering to them in the hope of gaining a few miserable votes.
    The 15-20% who might vote Reform aren't neo-nazis. The number of genuine far right people in the UK is very small, much smaller than say France or Germany. Labelling the voters as such doesn't help you get their vote back.
    I can't see how they are remotely reminiscent of the Nuremburg rallies in any way except that they feature a speaker, speaking to lots of people. They are therefore reminiscent of 'rallies'. Suggesting otherwise sounds like extremely sour grapes from a party that couldn't fill a bus stop.
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.

    They don't register very much anywhere else.

    Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
    The LDs/Liberals have always been strongest in those types of seats, going back to the 1970s. Richmond was always their strongest seat in London for instance.
    Even more so in the West country though, now less so there and more the posher seats in the SE
    their footprint in the NW has also shifted, not that long ago Rochdale and Liverpool Wavertree were LD seats, now they are more Cheadle and Lake District...
    Didsbury?
    Near Cheadle. South Manchester.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,734
    Farooq said:

    Ok Biden. You can now legally have Trump killed. Supreme Court says so.

    You may be right!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,269
    algarkirk said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    My sense is the Lib Dems are becoming the party of the well-to-do English upper middle classes in the posh areas.

    They don't register very much anywhere else.

    Yes, generally the higher the LD voteshare in general and local elections now, the more likely the area is to have a Waitrose, a Gail's and a well above average house price
    The LDs/Liberals have always been strongest in those types of seats, going back to the 1970s. Richmond was always their strongest seat in London for instance.
    Tim Farron's seat has no Waitrose. But of course has a Booths. It may be that, like the two species of crows in Britain, you will get one but not both. My chavish bit of Cumbria has none of these, but no-one will want to know about our ultra local butchers, bakers, candlestick makers, etc.
    You can't get both - because if people were given a choice between Booths and Waitrose the Waitrose would be closing within a month.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,497
    Farooq said:

    Ok Biden. You can now legally have Trump killed. Supreme Court says so.

    As Kissinger said, "It is an act of insanity and national humiliation to have a law prohibiting the President from ordering assassination."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    edited July 1
    Farooq said:

    Ok Biden. You can now legally have Trump killed. Supreme Court says so.

    The conservative judges will find something to reverse the opinion for that particular case should that ever come to pass.

    Bank on it.
This discussion has been closed.