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For Boris Johnson fans, in short BJ sucks – politicalbetting.com
For Boris Johnson fans, in short BJ sucks – politicalbetting.com
Indeed, almost all of the precipitous decline in the British public’s opinion of the Conservative party came under Johnson.To believe everything was salvageable until Truss came in is to completely ignore what the evidence actually shows. pic.twitter.com/UDIO7TGGv7
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And equally if Rishi had directly replaced Boris would the situation be much different?
Now we will never 100% know but I suspect that even without Liz Truss in the middle the current Tory party situation would have been little different even if history was slightly different.
Same for Truss.
The revelations that it was he that consciously and deliberately opened the migration floodgates - to the insane extent that 1 in 30 people in Britain came in the last 3 years - has finished him forever. The Tories will likely never be forgiven for this. I hope they die on Thursday
They don't register very much anywhere else.
Yes it’s pleasant. But I can get all this in England with better food and England is more interesting
The Tories over-estimated Hartlepool, and they over-estimated him.
Those who called that by-election win peak Bozo had it bang-on.
*Or two. Or four.
Is that value?
Mainly because he’s a disgusting liar, contemptible, turd … but people seem to believe him
Joint-largest lead EVER for Keir Starmer on this question (Tied with 18 February).
Between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, who do British voters believe can build a strong economy? (21-24 June)
Keir Starmer 44% (+1)
Rishi Sunak 29% (–)
Changes +/- 14-17 June
https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1807748573766778974
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/04/25/trump-attorney-john-sauer-doubles-down-on-argument-that-presidents-are-immune-from-assassinating-political-rivals-at-supreme-court/
I also think that if Sunak had replaced Boris directly and the markets hadn’t blown up Sunak would have been in a much stronger position to deal with the wings of the party rather than fighting a giant economic crisis being the only real consideration. It’s possible he could have been able to keep Suella and co at a safe distance if everything hadn’t been such chaos.
These are just my own hypotheticals from a position of bias in that I believe that Sunak, whilst far from a good politician, is a small tax, small gov person (and would have been good for the country long term)but also realised this couldn’t be so in some short term circumstances but if he had been given a less bonkers starting position then he likely wouldn’t have been under so much political pressure and therefore maybe not made so many political gaffes.
Other opinions are available.
Now I'm sure the real split is less good than that as people answering the door to visibly orange sticker-wearing canvassers are going to be self-selecting, but I didn't come across a single well to do upper middle class member.
Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.
19th safest Tory seat.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hTatDgSpL1zGu9FUKqHw4x5kbkkqHuE2VINI3Ig75CE/edit?usp=sharing
Democracy club 3 is the currently updating sheet.
3110 now ^^; Will copy the values to a new sheet once it's all uploaded..
Facebook almost definitely know my profile and everything about me, so they are targeting core Conservative voters and have the money to do it too. Even Reform.
Had a little nibble with one of my 10 £4 fun money pots on Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland.
Now we'll see.
Then resigns;
And Harris pardons everyone involved;
The corpses of all four should be cool with that.
Boris had supporters (95% of the Tory rump) in spite of his weaknesses, and because of his strengths (a good % of previous Labour voters)
Sunak loses more traditional Tories (like me) because the technocratic state keeps growing, and more swing voters because he is perceived as being 'too right wing' by many waverers.
It's SW London and it probably bleeds out like pebbles in a millpond once people realise you're the main challenger.
And nor do electoral calculus support it. But if I’m wrong I’m wrong.
So far the place hasnt burnt down that will probably be on Sunday
76 seats have already been filled where the candidate got over 50% of the vote
RN 39
Left Alliance 30
Macronites 1
Others 6
He's in a real pickle.
I think if the Greens can breakthrough and get 3-4 MPs at this election and come second in multiple other seats, we'll see them being as popular as the LDs quite quickly; I know that hypothetical polling isn't always worth the words used to conduct them, but those I've seen asking how people would vote if they had PR / didn't feel the need to vote tactically had the Greens polling above the LDs.
The snag is, not only has that already happened but Biden would see it as a reason to keep going himself.
It was an act of base fraudulence and outrageous irresponsibility. It was worse than Blair’s stupidity over the EU accession countries
We will be dealing with the fall out for decades. We could go the way of Sweden. Who the fuck have we let in, 2.4m people in 3 years??
You probably couldn’t get higher net migration figures if you literally abandoned all controls
For this, and this alone, every patriotic Briton must vote to exterminate the Tories on Thursday
The interesting takeaway from various vox-pops is that people's antagonism towards Johnson is he made promises he had no intention of meeting. Rather than because of Party gate.
Expect this argument when they are dragging JR Biden through the courts after Trump returns to the White House.
I trust they can rely on your vote.
However you were quite right about Dinan - it’s gorgeous - so I remain grateful!
Also I just made €5,000 selling a flint to design to Poland so I am still in love with the European mainland. Just not Dinard
The leafy backdrop for stop two on Keir Starmer’s home counties tour. Thatched roof, church tower. A tractor just drove by. Traditional Tory country.
https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1807749045101674750
A one Captain Beany, standing in Aberafon Maestag !
Thatched roof reminds me more of a LD/Con battleground area tbh.
Unfortunately we can only do this by replacing them with a party which is even more pro-immigration.
Democracy doesn't give us perfect levers, and we kid ourselves if we think our vote will give us everything that we want. There are millions of voters, and some of them have the temerity to want different things to us. But still - a tiny and erratic lever on the mechanisms of government is infinitely better than no lever at all.
In the end voters will vote for Nazis if that is the only way of delivering what they want. And they will do that
Do we know any other pollsters doing last minute adjustments like this?
In our desperation to meet our hopeless so-called targets, we push away brilliant students from Commonwealth countries, who want to pay to come to our universities; we find ourselves hard pressed to recruit people who might work in our NHS, as opposed to make use of its services – because we have absolutely no power to control the numbers who are coming with no job offers and no qualifications from the 28 EU countries. I am in favour of immigration; but I am also in favour of control, and of politicians taking responsibility for what is happening; and I think it bewilders people to be told that this most basic power of a state – to decide who has the right to live and work in your country – has been taken away and now resides in Brussels.
https://conservativehome.com/2016/05/09/boris-johnsons-speech-on-the-eu-referendum-full-text/
But none of us were listening. Not really listening.
Worth noting (saying this as someone who does digital advertising for a living) that targeting on FB etc. is generally not as good or as granular as you might think* (nor is it usually effective to hyper-target) - plus I understand that additional targeting restrictions are placed on political advertising.
*Meta is still streets ahead of others though, excepting Google, which demonstrates why so many advertisers were able to bin of Twitter with ease.
At what point does he say “I want control over who comes here! But this does not mean we can control people who simply get on a boat and cross the channel - we can’t control them at all. So we will have no controls really. Also we will allow students to bring their grandmothers from Lagos. Thanks”
And as for “taking responsibility” oh my holy Jesus. Fuck them. Kill them on Thursday
So it is not just that Boris made the party unpopular, he barred any hope of its recovery.
And his point about control is also bolleaux. We always had the control to reduce immigration just that we choose not to. For any number of valid and/or lazy reasons.
The reality is, though, that Trump's GOP is far more likely to abuse presidential power than are the Democrats.
Which is why we are where we are.
Its hard to really feel too sorry for them.
Rather like Farage, there's a bunch of people for whom Boris can do no wrong, however heinous his misdemeanours. And Boris's bunch is much larger than Farage's.
I am one of their biggest critics but I do not believe any true patriotic Briton would wish for the extermination of the Conservative Party. They have been the most successful democratically elected party in the western world. At their best they stand for the aspirations of many Britons. Unfortunately they are currently at their worst. But the answer is NOT for them to be exterminated but for them to come back.
Shame on you.
As happened here a couple of years back
"How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/