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For Boris Johnson fans, in short BJ sucks – politicalbetting.com

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  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365
    Nigelb said:

    148grss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity should be out around 10am Eastern time.

    6 - 3 ruling with opinions by Alito and Thomas arguing the 6 should have gone further
    I mean, obviously the following is a joke and the Dems wouldn't do it: but if the ruling does accept the Trump teams legal theory then Biden could do the funniest thing and have Trump whacked. The Trump team did argue it would be legal for the President to assassinate a political rival or to do a coup, so they can't complain if Biden then does it...

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/04/25/trump-attorney-john-sauer-doubles-down-on-argument-that-presidents-are-immune-from-assassinating-political-rivals-at-supreme-court/
    Well, they can complain - just not to the courts.

    The reality is, though, that Trump's GOP is far more likely to abuse presidential power than are the Democrats.
    Which is why we are where we are.
    oh give over, you stick with this line the Dems never do anything wrong.

    For months youve been denying theres anything wrong with Biden when there clearly is.

    The man running the US is not capable of doing so.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Nigelb said:

    148grss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity should be out around 10am Eastern time.

    6 - 3 ruling with opinions by Alito and Thomas arguing the 6 should have gone further
    I mean, obviously the following is a joke and the Dems wouldn't do it: but if the ruling does accept the Trump teams legal theory then Biden could do the funniest thing and have Trump whacked. The Trump team did argue it would be legal for the President to assassinate a political rival or to do a coup, so they can't complain if Biden then does it...

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/04/25/trump-attorney-john-sauer-doubles-down-on-argument-that-presidents-are-immune-from-assassinating-political-rivals-at-supreme-court/
    Well, they can complain - just not to the courts.

    The reality is, though, that Trump's GOP is far more likely to abuse presidential power than are the Democrats.
    Which is why we are where we are.
    Indeed, the GOP are willing to break whatever political norms exist to win and have clearly been willing to do so for a while. I would argue that Bush v Gore was the real "beginning of the end".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    As a onetime admirer of Boris I have to admit this is true

    The revelations that it was he that consciously and deliberately opened the migration floodgates - to the insane extent that 1 in 30 people in Britain came in the last 3 years - has finished him forever. The Tories will likely never be forgiven for this. I hope they die on Thursday

    The irony is that it's one of the few times in his life that he told the truth- he's always been upfront about being relaxed about immigration numbers. But in a sort of reverse Boy Who Cried Wolf, we were so used to disbelieving anything he said, that we all ignored it.
    I do not recall the Tories ever saying “yeah, after Brexit, net migration will double or triple” - because they never did

    It was an act of base fraudulence and outrageous irresponsibility. It was worse than Blair’s stupidity over the EU accession countries

    We will be dealing with the fall out for decades. We could go the way of Sweden. Who the fuck have we let in, 2.4m people in 3 years??

    You probably couldn’t get higher net migration figures if you literally abandoned all controls

    For this, and this alone, every patriotic Briton must vote to exterminate the Tories on Thursday
    You're not listening to the PB Brexiters. They all line up to say that Brexit wasn't about immigration and they should know. It was about sovereignty, they say, and increasing immigration by kazillions since 2016 was the sovereign act of a sovereign nation so job done by the Cons.

    I trust they can rely on your vote.
    From the man himself in May 2016;

    In our desperation to meet our hopeless so-called targets, we push away brilliant students from Commonwealth countries, who want to pay to come to our universities; we find ourselves hard pressed to recruit people who might work in our NHS, as opposed to make use of its services – because we have absolutely no power to control the numbers who are coming with no job offers and no qualifications from the 28 EU countries. I am in favour of immigration; but I am also in favour of control, and of politicians taking responsibility for what is happening; and I think it bewilders people to be told that this most basic power of a state – to decide who has the right to live and work in your country – has been taken away and now resides in Brussels.

    https://conservativehome.com/2016/05/09/boris-johnsons-speech-on-the-eu-referendum-full-text/

    But none of us were listening. Not really listening.
    I vaguely recall someone reminiscent of Leon applauding that speech.

    I could be misremembering, of course.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    Pulpstar said:

    So Survation MRP due Tuesday with ‘Final Call’ adjustments on Wednesday, where they will rectify things like North Shropshire on their MRP.

    Do we know any other pollsters doing last minute adjustments like this?

    It's a bit of a nonsense to create an MRP then stick an oar into individual constituencies when you realise it looks obviously wrong. Just negates the whole point of the exercise to some degree. I'm sticking with their original work in my spreadsheet.
    I agree. I go into these MRPs with one eyebrow raised generally (aside from YouGov, who I am inclined to trust a little more given their track record).

    Too many entrants into this space this time. But maybe we’ll hit upon a new gold standard on Thursday.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,485
    edited July 1
    Interesting fact about the election: it's not impossible the Tories could get their highest share of the vote in the country in Harrow East and still lose it to Labour. (Although Epping Forest is perhaps more likely, since there isn't a Reform candidate there).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,280
    148grss said:

    In the French elections, I saw that the NFP have said in run offs that they can't win they'd drop out to help defeat RN; last I saw the ENS hadn't said either way if they were going to do the same. Has there been any update on this that anyone here has noticed?

    I think it's being left up to individual candidates.

    Some will drop out in favour of PS, or Greens, but none will drop out in favour of LFI (Melenchon's party). It's not clear however, that dropping out would benefit left wing candidates, especially. A lot of Macron's supporters would vote Republican or even RN, rather than for the Left.
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274

    On the subject of fantasy politics. Can anyone on here propose a different scenario to a labour majority. The more humorous the better! Such as the coalition being made up of Reform with 3 seat. The Greens with 5 and the SNP with 20 being part of the Rainbow coalition l.

    Jeremy wins Islington North and half the Labour Party falls in behind him over the issue of house-building on green field allotments. 200 seats for Labour, 200 for Corbynite Labour, and Rishi Sunak returns as Prime Minister leading an unstable minority government.
    I like that one! And what about Diane?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274

    Lib Dem canvassing anecdote.

    The Lib Dems came to our house to ask my father if he's still planning on voting Lib Dem, said he was, I questioned them on how things are going and they said Rishi's supermajority talk is working.

    They have definitely picked up voters of all strands who are voting Lib Dem to stop Starmer having a supermajority and this is a prime target for it to work.

    Good news.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933

    Nigelb said:

    148grss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity should be out around 10am Eastern time.

    6 - 3 ruling with opinions by Alito and Thomas arguing the 6 should have gone further
    I mean, obviously the following is a joke and the Dems wouldn't do it: but if the ruling does accept the Trump teams legal theory then Biden could do the funniest thing and have Trump whacked. The Trump team did argue it would be legal for the President to assassinate a political rival or to do a coup, so they can't complain if Biden then does it...

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/04/25/trump-attorney-john-sauer-doubles-down-on-argument-that-presidents-are-immune-from-assassinating-political-rivals-at-supreme-court/
    Well, they can complain - just not to the courts.

    The reality is, though, that Trump's GOP is far more likely to abuse presidential power than are the Democrats.
    Which is why we are where we are.
    oh give over, you stick with this line the Dems never do anything wrong.

    For months youve been denying theres anything wrong with Biden when there clearly is.

    The man running the US is not capable of doing so.
    I have defended his ability to run a competent administration, and have been proved right in that.
    I am very clear that I don't think he should seek a second term.

    And you clearly don't understand what "more likely" means.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,191
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    As a onetime admirer of Boris I have to admit this is true

    The revelations that it was he that consciously and deliberately opened the migration floodgates - to the insane extent that 1 in 30 people in Britain came in the last 3 years - has finished him forever. The Tories will likely never be forgiven for this. I hope they die on Thursday

    The irony is that it's one of the few times in his life that he told the truth- he's always been upfront about being relaxed about immigration numbers. But in a sort of reverse Boy Who Cried Wolf, we were so used to disbelieving anything he said, that we all ignored it.
    I do not recall the Tories ever saying “yeah, after Brexit, net migration will double or triple” - because they never did

    It was an act of base fraudulence and outrageous irresponsibility. It was worse than Blair’s stupidity over the EU accession countries

    We will be dealing with the fall out for decades. We could go the way of Sweden. Who the fuck have we let in, 2.4m people in 3 years??

    You probably couldn’t get higher net migration figures if you literally abandoned all controls

    For this, and this alone, every patriotic Briton must vote to exterminate the Tories on Thursday
    You're not listening to the PB Brexiters. They all line up to say that Brexit wasn't about immigration and they should know. It was about sovereignty, they say, and increasing immigration by kazillions since 2016 was the sovereign act of a sovereign nation so job done by the Cons.

    I trust they can rely on your vote.
    From the man himself in May 2016;

    In our desperation to meet our hopeless so-called targets, we push away brilliant students from Commonwealth countries, who want to pay to come to our universities; we find ourselves hard pressed to recruit people who might work in our NHS, as opposed to make use of its services – because we have absolutely no power to control the numbers who are coming with no job offers and no qualifications from the 28 EU countries. I am in favour of immigration; but I am also in favour of control, and of politicians taking responsibility for what is happening; and I think it bewilders people to be told that this most basic power of a state – to decide who has the right to live and work in your country – has been taken away and now resides in Brussels.

    https://conservativehome.com/2016/05/09/boris-johnsons-speech-on-the-eu-referendum-full-text/

    But none of us were listening. Not really listening.
    At what point does he say “this means migration will triple”

    At what point does he say “I want control over who comes here! But this does not mean we can control people who simply get on a boat and cross the channel - we can’t control them at all. So we will have no controls really. Also we will allow students to bring their grandmothers from Lagos. Thanks”


    And as for “taking responsibility” oh my holy Jesus. Fuck them. Kill them on Thursday
    Of course he doesn't say immigration is going to increase. But if you plan to fund universities with foreign student fees and get immigrants in to do the healthcare jobs that we want done without doing them ourselves, it's pretty much inevitable.

    For once in his life, Boris told the truth. And he is such a brilliant and established liar, he got away with it.

    Until he didn't.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365
    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    Establishment = people who run your pension fund

    they can always be replaced.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    As a onetime admirer of Boris I have to admit this is true

    The revelations that it was he that consciously and deliberately opened the migration floodgates - to the insane extent that 1 in 30 people in Britain came in the last 3 years - has finished him forever. The Tories will likely never be forgiven for this. I hope they die on Thursday

    The irony is that it's one of the few times in his life that he told the truth- he's always been upfront about being relaxed about immigration numbers. But in a sort of reverse Boy Who Cried Wolf, we were so used to disbelieving anything he said, that we all ignored it.
    I do not recall the Tories ever saying “yeah, after Brexit, net migration will double or triple” - because they never did

    It was an act of base fraudulence and outrageous irresponsibility. It was worse than Blair’s stupidity over the EU accession countries

    We will be dealing with the fall out for decades. We could go the way of Sweden. Who the fuck have we let in, 2.4m people in 3 years??

    You probably couldn’t get higher net migration figures if you literally abandoned all controls

    For this, and this alone, every patriotic Briton must vote to exterminate the Tories on Thursday
    You're not listening to the PB Brexiters. They all line up to say that Brexit wasn't about immigration and they should know. It was about sovereignty, they say, and increasing immigration by kazillions since 2016 was the sovereign act of a sovereign nation so job done by the Cons.

    I trust they can rely on your vote.
    From the man himself in May 2016;

    In our desperation to meet our hopeless so-called targets, we push away brilliant students from Commonwealth countries, who want to pay to come to our universities; we find ourselves hard pressed to recruit people who might work in our NHS, as opposed to make use of its services – because we have absolutely no power to control the numbers who are coming with no job offers and no qualifications from the 28 EU countries. I am in favour of immigration; but I am also in favour of control, and of politicians taking responsibility for what is happening; and I think it bewilders people to be told that this most basic power of a state – to decide who has the right to live and work in your country – has been taken away and now resides in Brussels.

    https://conservativehome.com/2016/05/09/boris-johnsons-speech-on-the-eu-referendum-full-text/

    But none of us were listening. Not really listening.
    At what point does he say “this means migration will triple”

    At what point does he say “I want control over who comes here! But this does not mean we can control people who simply get on a boat and cross the channel - we can’t control them at all. So we will have no controls really. Also we will allow students to bring their grandmothers from Lagos. Thanks”


    And as for “taking responsibility” oh my holy Jesus. Fuck them. Kill them on Thursday
    Of course he doesn't say immigration is going to increase. But if you plan to fund universities with foreign student fees and get immigrants in to do the healthcare jobs that we want done without doing them ourselves, it's pretty much inevitable.

    For once in his life, Boris told the truth. And he is such a brilliant and established liar, he got away with it.

    Until he didn't.
    Oh yes he did - what do we think Lab's immigration is going to be. Not particularly Leon-friendly I would hazard.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,772

    Lib Dem canvassing anecdote.

    The Lib Dems came to our house to ask my father if he's still planning on voting Lib Dem, said he was, I questioned them on how things are going and they said Rishi's supermajority talk is working.

    They have definitely picked up voters of all strands who are voting Lib Dem to stop Starmer having a supermajority and this is a prime target for it to work.

    I hope that is true and not a smart arse, quick thinking LD canvasser.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Sean_F said:

    148grss said:

    In the French elections, I saw that the NFP have said in run offs that they can't win they'd drop out to help defeat RN; last I saw the ENS hadn't said either way if they were going to do the same. Has there been any update on this that anyone here has noticed?

    I think it's being left up to individual candidates.

    Some will drop out in favour of PS, or Greens, but none will drop out in favour of LFI (Melenchon's party). It's not clear however, that dropping out would benefit left wing candidates, especially. A lot of Macron's supporters would vote Republican or even RN, rather than for the Left.
    Great, the long tradition of the "centrists" preferring the far right to a slight lean leftwards continues...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    As a onetime admirer of Boris I have to admit this is true

    The revelations that it was he that consciously and deliberately opened the migration floodgates - to the insane extent that 1 in 30 people in Britain came in the last 3 years - has finished him forever. The Tories will likely never be forgiven for this. I hope they die on Thursday

    The irony is that it's one of the few times in his life that he told the truth- he's always been upfront about being relaxed about immigration numbers. But in a sort of reverse Boy Who Cried Wolf, we were so used to disbelieving anything he said, that we all ignored it.

    For this, and this alone, every patriotic Briton must vote to exterminate the Tories on Thursday
    You are a disruptor and an anarchist. You are not a patriot. Your contempt for Britain seethes through almost every post.

    I am one of their biggest critics but I do not believe any true patriotic Briton would wish for the extermination of the Conservative Party. They have been the most successful democratically elected party in the western world. At their best they stand for the aspirations of many Britons. Unfortunately they are currently at their worst. But the answer is NOT for them to be exterminated but for them to come back.

    Shame on you.
    It’s also worth pointing out the insidious racist undercurrent behind @Leon ’s definition of patriotism. It certainly doesn’t entail the rich kaleidoscope of cultures which make up modern Britain. It could have come straight from Nigel Farage or, for that matter, Martin Webster.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    148grss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity should be out around 10am Eastern time.

    6 - 3 ruling with opinions by Alito and Thomas arguing the 6 should have gone further
    I mean, obviously the following is a joke and the Dems wouldn't do it: but if the ruling does accept the Trump teams legal theory then Biden could do the funniest thing and have Trump whacked. The Trump team did argue it would be legal for the President to assassinate a political rival or to do a coup, so they can't complain if Biden then does it...

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/04/25/trump-attorney-john-sauer-doubles-down-on-argument-that-presidents-are-immune-from-assassinating-political-rivals-at-supreme-court/
    Well, they can complain - just not to the courts.

    The reality is, though, that Trump's GOP is far more likely to abuse presidential power than are the Democrats.
    Which is why we are where we are.
    oh give over, you stick with this line the Dems never do anything wrong.

    For months youve been denying theres anything wrong with Biden when there clearly is.

    The man running the US is not capable of doing so.
    I have defended his ability to run a competent administration, and have been proved right in that.
    I am very clear that I don't think he should seek a second term.

    And you clearly don't understand what "more likely" means.
    The administration is running him.

    And he should not - despite your ramping - be running for another term
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    Establishment = people who run your pension fund

    they can always be replaced.
    Of course they can but they will still have a duty to maximise returns for their investors (witness the ESG pushback in the US) and hence whoever runs them if they think this policy or that is going to be bad for returns they will vote with their feet. cf Liz Truss.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    kjh said:

    Lib Dem canvassing anecdote.

    The Lib Dems came to our house to ask my father if he's still planning on voting Lib Dem, said he was, I questioned them on how things are going and they said Rishi's supermajority talk is working.

    They have definitely picked up voters of all strands who are voting Lib Dem to stop Starmer having a supermajority and this is a prime target for it to work.

    I hope that is true and not a smart arse, quick thinking LD canvasser.
    Seemed genuine.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,485
    edited July 1
    Tory voters in Sheffield Hallam undoubtedly have the opportunity to defeat the Lab candidate if a large number of them vote LibDem.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679
    @YouGov
    Implied voting intention if tactical voting were not necessary

    Labour: 29% (-8 compared to actual voting intention)
    Conservative: 18% (-2)
    Reform UK: 16% (=)
    Green: 13% (+6)
    Lib Dem: 12% (-2)
    Other: 9% (+3)
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1807686038191567270
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    Establishment = people who run your pension fund

    they can always be replaced.
    Of course they can but they will still have a duty to maximise returns for their investors (witness the ESG pushback in the US) and hence whoever runs them if they think this policy or that is going to be bad for returns they will vote with their feet. cf Liz Truss.
    looking at the returns on my fund you have an uphill task convincing me of that
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842
    .
    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Excellent so you can live for the moment. None of that fuddy duddy old future to worry about.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    I don't think you understand the point of markets, and how they work.

    Which is understandable.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346
    TimS said:

    boulay said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak would be delighted if he got 211 seats on Thursday though as Boris was projected to get when he was ousted

    The great unknown is would Boris have ended up in the situation that Rishi is currently in?

    And equally if Rishi had directly replaced Boris would the situation be much different?

    Now we will never 100% know but I suspect that even without Liz Truss in the middle the current Tory party situation would have been little different even if history was slightly different.
    I think if Sunak had replaced Boris without the Truss interregnum then it’s a good chance the cost of living crisis would not have been as bad as it was as the market shocks would have been gentler. There would also be less of a stench of incompetence around the party in terms of the public seeing a bit of crazy in action.

    I also think that if Sunak had replaced Boris directly and the markets hadn’t blown up Sunak would have been in a much stronger position to deal with the wings of the party rather than fighting a giant economic crisis being the only real consideration. It’s possible he could have been able to keep Suella and co at a safe distance if everything hadn’t been such chaos.

    These are just my own hypotheticals from a position of bias in that I believe that Sunak, whilst far from a good politician, is a small tax, small gov person (and would have been good for the country long term)but also realised this couldn’t be so in some short term circumstances but if he had been given a less bonkers starting position then he likely wouldn’t have been under so much political pressure and therefore maybe not made so many political gaffes.

    Other opinions are available.
    If Sunak had replaced Boris directly I reckon the Trussite wing would have successfully mounted a leadership challenge early this year. It was only the ludicrous idea of yet another PM that held this back in 2024.
    Yet in the event, it wasn't ludicrous, it was (as some wise people said at the time) the only thing that could have saved them from this.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,934
    148grss said:

    Sean_F said:

    148grss said:

    In the French elections, I saw that the NFP have said in run offs that they can't win they'd drop out to help defeat RN; last I saw the ENS hadn't said either way if they were going to do the same. Has there been any update on this that anyone here has noticed?

    I think it's being left up to individual candidates.

    Some will drop out in favour of PS, or Greens, but none will drop out in favour of LFI (Melenchon's party). It's not clear however, that dropping out would benefit left wing candidates, especially. A lot of Macron's supporters would vote Republican or even RN, rather than for the Left.
    Great, the long tradition of the "centrists" preferring the far right to a slight lean leftwards continues...
    Except you're all just speculating. I don't know anyone who voted Ens in the first round who would countenance voting RN in the second. I know several who voted left who would abstain rather than support the globalist zionist WEF puppet Macron.

    It's a modern social media phenomenon typical of the culture wars in particular. Speculate that "I bet people I don't like would do something really bad", and then get righteously angry that "people I don't like might be doing something really bad."
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,955
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @benrileysmith

    The leafy backdrop for stop two on Keir Starmer’s home counties tour. Thatched roof, church tower. A tractor just drove by. Traditional Tory country.

    https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1807749045101674750

    Where is he exactly ?

    Thatched roof reminds me more of a LD/Con battleground area tbh.
    Bletchley
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    148grss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity should be out around 10am Eastern time.

    6 - 3 ruling with opinions by Alito and Thomas arguing the 6 should have gone further
    I mean, obviously the following is a joke and the Dems wouldn't do it: but if the ruling does accept the Trump teams legal theory then Biden could do the funniest thing and have Trump whacked. The Trump team did argue it would be legal for the President to assassinate a political rival or to do a coup, so they can't complain if Biden then does it...

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/04/25/trump-attorney-john-sauer-doubles-down-on-argument-that-presidents-are-immune-from-assassinating-political-rivals-at-supreme-court/
    Well, they can complain - just not to the courts.

    The reality is, though, that Trump's GOP is far more likely to abuse presidential power than are the Democrats.
    Which is why we are where we are.
    oh give over, you stick with this line the Dems never do anything wrong.

    For months youve been denying theres anything wrong with Biden when there clearly is.

    The man running the US is not capable of doing so.
    I have defended his ability to run a competent administration, and have been proved right in that.
    I am very clear that I don't think he should seek a second term.

    And you clearly don't understand what "more likely" means.
    The administration is running him.

    And he should not - despite your ramping - be running for another term
    White House insider Alanbrooke.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    Establishment = people who run your pension fund

    they can always be replaced.
    Of course they can but they will still have a duty to maximise returns for their investors (witness the ESG pushback in the US) and hence whoever runs them if they think this policy or that is going to be bad for returns they will vote with their feet. cf Liz Truss.
    looking at the returns on my fund you have an uphill task convincing me of that
    LOL I'm sure - but over what time frame. MSCI has been going up in a straight line YTD.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679
    'Could the UK soon have the most working-class cabinet of all time?
    More than three-quarters of the shadow cabinet attended state schools'
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/could-the-uk-soon-have-the-most-working-class-cabinet-of-all-time?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719763506
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,346
    This thread header isn't PB's finest hour.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    Establishment = people who run your pension fund

    they can always be replaced.
    Of course they can but they will still have a duty to maximise returns for their investors (witness the ESG pushback in the US) and hence whoever runs them if they think this policy or that is going to be bad for returns they will vote with their feet. cf Liz Truss.
    Might be a tad harder with someone who has just won a general election.

    I doubt Le Pen will be daft enough to let her "commons" leader accept an offer to form a government unless they have an absolute majority though.

    At least this side of the next presidential elections though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679
    @benrileysmith
    The leafy backdrop for stop two on Keir Starmer’s home counties tour. Thatched roof, church tower. A tractor just drove by. Traditional Tory country.
    https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1807749045101674750
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    I need an opinion poll. Getting grumpy.
  • bobbobbobbob Posts: 100
    I’ve read so much about the election but so little is talked about the elephant in the room

    Rishi Sunak is not white

    Some voters will not vote or be v reluctant to vote for a minority PM even if most won’t admit it

    It is reflected in the CON polling and the final election result though

    It’s taboo to even mention it because it’s not PC to mention race and people in their bubbles like to deny racism exists
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,485
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    As a onetime admirer of Boris I have to admit this is true

    The revelations that it was he that consciously and deliberately opened the migration floodgates - to the insane extent that 1 in 30 people in Britain came in the last 3 years - has finished him forever. The Tories will likely never be forgiven for this. I hope they die on Thursday

    The irony is that it's one of the few times in his life that he told the truth- he's always been upfront about being relaxed about immigration numbers. But in a sort of reverse Boy Who Cried Wolf, we were so used to disbelieving anything he said, that we all ignored it.

    For this, and this alone, every patriotic Briton must vote to exterminate the Tories on Thursday
    You are a disruptor and an anarchist. You are not a patriot. Your contempt for Britain seethes through almost every post.

    I am one of their biggest critics but I do not believe any true patriotic Briton would wish for the extermination of the Conservative Party. They have been the most successful democratically elected party in the western world. At their best they stand for the aspirations of many Britons. Unfortunately they are currently at their worst. But the answer is NOT for them to be exterminated but for them to come back.

    Shame on you.
    lol
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Presumably we've now seen the last of the opinion polls until quite late on Wednesday, following which reputations stand to be made or possibly somewhat destroyed.
    My pick to become the new Gold Standard bearer is YouGov, based largely on of its size and therefore very considerable resource, coupled with its recently updated and highly developed methodology.
    If anything, based on its recent results, it has had a slight leaning towards the Tories compared with some of the other pollsters. As such, a week or so ago, it seemed to be a little out of line, since when others have been moving in its direction.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,498
    HYUFD said:

    'Could the UK soon have the most working-class cabinet of all time?
    More than three-quarters of the shadow cabinet attended state schools'
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/could-the-uk-soon-have-the-most-working-class-cabinet-of-all-time?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719763506

    Ugh, fucking plebs in charge, the country’s going to go to the dogs.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 1
    Nigelb said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    I don't think you understand the point of markets, and how they work.

    Which is understandable.
    The bond markets are quite happy to accept unfettered spending and money printing when the "right" people are in charge. As Sunak in 2020 & 2021 and Darling/Osborne in circa 2010 demonstrated.

    Thats one of the things that got us into this mess.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842
    bobbob said:

    I’ve read so much about the election but so little is talked about the elephant in the room

    Rishi Sunak is not white

    Some voters will not vote or be v reluctant to vote for a minority PM even if most won’t admit it

    It is reflected in the CON polling and the final election result though

    It’s taboo to even mention it because it’s not PC to mention race and people in their bubbles like to deny racism exists

    That might carry some weight but aren't several of the favourites to succeed him as Cons leader also not white?

    Not to say that there isn't substance in what you say.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    bobbob said:

    I’ve read so much about the election but so little is talked about the elephant in the room

    Rishi Sunak is not white

    Some voters will not vote or be v reluctant to vote for a minority PM even if most won’t admit it

    It is reflected in the CON polling and the final election result though

    It’s taboo to even mention it because it’s not PC to mention race and people in their bubbles like to deny racism exists

    Just so we can cut to the chase, what are your view on Gay Rights? And on Ukraine?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    Heathener said:

    I need an opinion poll. Getting grumpy.

    Why? Just relax a bit. Election results (you know, actual votes) will be trickling in by just past 11 pm Thursday night. The outcome is not in doubt. Starmer will be kissing the ring on Friday.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,955

    Boris was, I think, worse than the header implies. It is not just that he screwed the electoral pooch but that, aiui, he got rid of half the Tories' ministerial talent and, worse, replaced an experienced and competent Number 10 team with his Vote Leave chums, and then sacked the only one of them who had any sort of vision. Liz Truss doubled down on this so by the time Rishi came in, there was no-one in Downing Street who could look out the window to see if it was raining, let alone work an umbrella.

    So it is not just that Boris made the party unpopular, he barred any hope of its recovery.

    I think the Tories electing Boris was a kind of Faustian pact. Yes they got Brexit - the dream of the Tory right for decades- but at the cost of hollowing the party of talent, importing Boris’ loose standards into government, and setting themselves up for an epochal fall from power.

    Its hard to really feel too sorry for them.
    This is why Conservatives campaigned against Brexit

    The swivel eyed loons and closet racists got their wish, and destroyed the party
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    edited July 1

    Nigelb said:

    148grss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity should be out around 10am Eastern time.

    6 - 3 ruling with opinions by Alito and Thomas arguing the 6 should have gone further
    I mean, obviously the following is a joke and the Dems wouldn't do it: but if the ruling does accept the Trump teams legal theory then Biden could do the funniest thing and have Trump whacked. The Trump team did argue it would be legal for the President to assassinate a political rival or to do a coup, so they can't complain if Biden then does it...

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/04/25/trump-attorney-john-sauer-doubles-down-on-argument-that-presidents-are-immune-from-assassinating-political-rivals-at-supreme-court/
    Well, they can complain - just not to the courts.

    The reality is, though, that Trump's GOP is far more likely to abuse presidential power than are the Democrats.
    Which is why we are where we are.
    oh give over, you stick with this line the Dems never do anything wrong.

    For months youve been denying theres anything wrong with Biden when there clearly is.

    The man running the US is not capable of doing so.
    Indeed. @Nigelb has been perhaps the most ludicrous and fatuous denier that there is “anything wrong with Biden”. He is a silly person
  • eekeek Posts: 28,269

    kjh said:

    Lib Dem canvassing anecdote.

    The Lib Dems came to our house to ask my father if he's still planning on voting Lib Dem, said he was, I questioned them on how things are going and they said Rishi's supermajority talk is working.

    They have definitely picked up voters of all strands who are voting Lib Dem to stop Starmer having a supermajority and this is a prime target for it to work.

    I hope that is true and not a smart arse, quick thinking LD canvasser.
    Seemed genuine.
    The people who are going to react to a Labour supermajority are not really going to be Tory voters - the people who will listen are going to be Green / Lib Dems leaning voters who may have otherwise voted Labour and no longer see / feel that they need to do so.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933
    Here's one for our resident conspiracy theorists.

    Here is the very strange flight path the Russian plane that ended up parked beside Trump’s plane at Dulles airport flew to avoid flight restrictions due to sanctions over the war in Ukraine. Apparently the plane was allowed to land in New York and D.C in order to fly diplomats and maybe spies out of the U.S.
    I have flown to both airports many times. There are a lot of spaces to park planes at both JFK and Dulles. Parking the Russian plane in such close proximity to a presidential candidates plane could be considered a security breach if the candidate was not an associate of Russia and possibly a Russian asset.
    Trump’s Secret Service detail had to approve of Putin’s plane parking so close to Trump and his plane. As well as approve a UAE plane lining up beside Trump and the Russian plane. Very suspicious...

    https://x.com/RealMartyT7/status/1807218142889783298
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    He is probabiy right. But not because of climate change. Because of 50 years of the west spending beyond its means since Nixon decoupled the Dollar from Gold in 1971.

    See Argentina for a suitable prophecy.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,485
    "United States | Operation Rescue Biden

    Why Joe Biden won’t go
    There is something Trumpian about the Democratic Party’s denial of reality"

    https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/06/30/why-joe-biden-wont-go
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    148grss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity should be out around 10am Eastern time.

    6 - 3 ruling with opinions by Alito and Thomas arguing the 6 should have gone further
    I mean, obviously the following is a joke and the Dems wouldn't do it: but if the ruling does accept the Trump teams legal theory then Biden could do the funniest thing and have Trump whacked. The Trump team did argue it would be legal for the President to assassinate a political rival or to do a coup, so they can't complain if Biden then does it...

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/04/25/trump-attorney-john-sauer-doubles-down-on-argument-that-presidents-are-immune-from-assassinating-political-rivals-at-supreme-court/
    Well, they can complain - just not to the courts.

    The reality is, though, that Trump's GOP is far more likely to abuse presidential power than are the Democrats.
    Which is why we are where we are.
    oh give over, you stick with this line the Dems never do anything wrong.

    For months youve been denying theres anything wrong with Biden when there clearly is.

    The man running the US is not capable of doing so.
    Indeed. @Nigelb has been perhaps the most ludicrous and fatuous denier that there is “anything wrong with Biden”. He is a tit
    Badge of honour from you.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited July 1

    Heathener said:

    I need an opinion poll. Getting grumpy.

    Why? Just relax a bit. Election results (you know, actual votes) will be trickling in by just past 11 pm Thursday night. The outcome is not in doubt. Starmer will be kissing the ring on Friday.
    I’m hugely relaxed. After a busy week I’m back in Surrey sitting with dogs watching Wimbledon.

    I just need an opinion poll. Or several. I want to see if things shifted since the last data aeonstwo days ago
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,485
    HYUFD said:

    @YouGov
    Implied voting intention if tactical voting were not necessary

    Labour: 29% (-8 compared to actual voting intention)
    Conservative: 18% (-2)
    Reform UK: 16% (=)
    Green: 13% (+6)
    Lib Dem: 12% (-2)
    Other: 9% (+3)
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1807686038191567270

    As suspected, it's mainly Green -> Lab.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I need an opinion poll. Getting grumpy.

    Why? Just relax a bit. Election results (you know, actual votes) will be trickling in by just past 11 pm Thursday night. The outcome is not in doubt. Starmer will be kissing the ring on Friday.
    I’m hugely relaxed. After a busy week I’m back in Surrey sitting with dogs watching Wimbledon.

    I just need an opinion poll. Or several.
    Why?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    I'm 33 - my pension fund is never going to be realised because in 40 years time either no one will be allowed to retire, or the climate is going to be in such a state that global capitalism will be unable to function as it currently does that the "value" of my pension won't really matter...
    Do you genuinely believe that? What is it about potential climate change that you think will end global capitalism? And 'no-one will be allowed to retire"? Really? If you are so fearful for the future why pay into a pension at all?
    He is probabiy right. But not because of climate change. Because of 50 years of the west spending beyond its means since Nixon decoupled the Dollar from Gold in 1971.

    See Argentina for a suitable prophecy.
    Argentina was borrowing in USD.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    bobbob said:

    I’ve read so much about the election but so little is talked about the elephant in the room

    Rishi Sunak is not white

    Some voters will not vote or be v reluctant to vote for a minority PM even if most won’t admit it

    It is reflected in the CON polling and the final election result though

    It’s taboo to even mention it because it’s not PC to mention race and people in their bubbles like to deny racism exists

    The bots even bother us on Mondays now
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Heathener said:

    bobbob said:

    I’ve read so much about the election but so little is talked about the elephant in the room

    Rishi Sunak is not white

    Some voters will not vote or be v reluctant to vote for a minority PM even if most won’t admit it

    It is reflected in the CON polling and the final election result though

    It’s taboo to even mention it because it’s not PC to mention race and people in their bubbles like to deny racism exists

    Just so we can cut to the chase, what are your view on Gay Rights? And on Ukraine?
    Why are you seemingly unable to distinguish between someone discussing a point of view objectively and them holding that point of view?


  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    HYUFD said:

    'Could the UK soon have the most working-class cabinet of all time?
    More than three-quarters of the shadow cabinet attended state schools'
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/could-the-uk-soon-have-the-most-working-class-cabinet-of-all-time?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719763506

    Given what the etonians and wykehamites have delivered, this will surely be a positive for 92% of voters
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,753

    kjh said:

    Lib Dem canvassing anecdote.

    The Lib Dems came to our house to ask my father if he's still planning on voting Lib Dem, said he was, I questioned them on how things are going and they said Rishi's supermajority talk is working.

    They have definitely picked up voters of all strands who are voting Lib Dem to stop Starmer having a supermajority and this is a prime target for it to work.

    I hope that is true and not a smart arse, quick thinking LD canvasser.
    Seemed genuine.
    Tbh I'm not 100 per cent sure that more LibDem MPs was the outcome Rishi's supermajority warnings were intended to achieve.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Heathener said:

    I need an opinion poll. Getting grumpy.

    Presumably we will have the usual Monday missive from Messrs Redfield and Wilton?
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274

    kjh said:

    Lib Dem canvassing anecdote.

    The Lib Dems came to our house to ask my father if he's still planning on voting Lib Dem, said he was, I questioned them on how things are going and they said Rishi's supermajority talk is working.

    They have definitely picked up voters of all strands who are voting Lib Dem to stop Starmer having a supermajority and this is a prime target for it to work.

    I hope that is true and not a smart arse, quick thinking LD canvasser.
    Seemed genuine.
    Tbh I'm not 100 per cent sure that more LibDem MPs was the outcome Rishi's supermajority warnings were intended to achieve.
    No!
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274

    kjh said:

    Lib Dem canvassing anecdote.

    The Lib Dems came to our house to ask my father if he's still planning on voting Lib Dem, said he was, I questioned them on how things are going and they said Rishi's supermajority talk is working.

    They have definitely picked up voters of all strands who are voting Lib Dem to stop Starmer having a supermajority and this is a prime target for it to work.

    I hope that is true and not a smart arse, quick thinking LD canvasser.
    Seemed genuine.
    Tbh I'm not 100 per cent sure that more LibDem MPs was the outcome Rishi's supermajority warnings were intended to achieve.
    No!
    I mean you are right.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I need an opinion poll. Getting grumpy.

    Why? Just relax a bit. Election results (you know, actual votes) will be trickling in by just past 11 pm Thursday night. The outcome is not in doubt. Starmer will be kissing the ring on Friday.
    I’m hugely relaxed. After a busy week I’m back in Surrey sitting with dogs watching Wimbledon.

    I just need an opinion poll. Or several.
    Why?
    Duh. Because I enjoy politics and political betting. And I love General Elections. This one in particular. It has been the most enjoyable campaign of my life.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,934

    Presumably we've now seen the last of the opinion polls until quite late on Wednesday, following which reputations stand to be made or possibly somewhat destroyed.
    My pick to become the new Gold Standard bearer is YouGov, based largely on of its size and therefore very considerable resource, coupled with its recently updated and highly developed methodology.
    If anything, based on its recent results, it has had a slight leaning towards the Tories compared with some of the other pollsters. As such, a week or so ago, it seemed to be a little out of line, since when others have been moving in its direction.

    We've bizarrely not had a red wall or blue wall poll for ages, unless I've missed it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679

    HYUFD said:

    'Could the UK soon have the most working-class cabinet of all time?
    More than three-quarters of the shadow cabinet attended state schools'
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/could-the-uk-soon-have-the-most-working-class-cabinet-of-all-time?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719763506

    Ugh, fucking plebs in charge, the country’s going to go to the dogs.
    Well there are still a few days of a Wykehamist PM and Justice Secretary, Carthusian Chancellor, Etonian Foreign Secretary and minor public school Home Secretary for you to savour
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Andy_JS said:

    "United States | Operation Rescue Biden

    Why Joe Biden won’t go
    There is something Trumpian about the Democratic Party’s denial of reality"

    https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/06/30/why-joe-biden-wont-go

    Can't read it due to paywall, but I disagree with the premise. The support for Trump is a cult of personality - policy wise any other popular Republican would do the same or more of what the voters want. For the Dems the issue is policy based - primaries are increasingly left versus centrist fights and most of the older politicians in positions of power are centrists who want to keep centrists in power. If Biden didn't rerun it would mean another fight about policies, and could mean someone like Bernie or AOC could show how popular they are with the base, even if they only succeed at pushing the final candidate to the left.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,493

    Lib Dem canvassing anecdote.

    The Lib Dems came to our house to ask my father if he's still planning on voting Lib Dem, said he was, I questioned them on how things are going and they said Rishi's supermajority talk is working.

    They have definitely picked up voters of all strands who are voting Lib Dem to stop Starmer having a supermajority and this is a prime target for it to work.

    And the number of seats in England where you can help stop a Labour MP being elected without thereby electing a Tory, by voting LD would be in low single figures.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723
    HYUFD said:

    @benrileysmith
    The leafy backdrop for stop two on Keir Starmer’s home counties tour. Thatched roof, church tower. A tractor just drove by. Traditional Tory country.
    https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1807749045101674750

    Not nice, alluding to fellow Tories' tastes in porn.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,934

    kjh said:

    Lib Dem canvassing anecdote.

    The Lib Dems came to our house to ask my father if he's still planning on voting Lib Dem, said he was, I questioned them on how things are going and they said Rishi's supermajority talk is working.

    They have definitely picked up voters of all strands who are voting Lib Dem to stop Starmer having a supermajority and this is a prime target for it to work.

    I hope that is true and not a smart arse, quick thinking LD canvasser.
    Seemed genuine.
    Tbh I'm not 100 per cent sure that more LibDem MPs was the outcome Rishi's supermajority warnings were intended to achieve.
    One non-Lib Dem area I can also see it working is Bristol Central.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I need an opinion poll. Getting grumpy.

    Why? Just relax a bit. Election results (you know, actual votes) will be trickling in by just past 11 pm Thursday night. The outcome is not in doubt. Starmer will be kissing the ring on Friday.
    I’m hugely relaxed. After a busy week I’m back in Surrey sitting with dogs watching Wimbledon.

    I just need an opinion poll. Or several.
    Why?
    Duh. Because I enjoy politics and political betting. And I love General Elections. This one in particular. It has been the most enjoyable campaign of my life.
    Duh yourself. What will yet another poll saying exactly the same thing do for you?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,916
    Nigelb said:

    Boris still has fans ?

    Nadine only fan, which I believe gets a certain type of gent excited.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,453
    HYUFD said:

    'Could the UK soon have the most working-class cabinet of all time?
    More than three-quarters of the shadow cabinet attended state schools'
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/could-the-uk-soon-have-the-most-working-class-cabinet-of-all-time?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719763506

    Hooray, it’s the age of the sons of toolmakers.

    If there is one thing we surely have learnt now is that thinking that more of one group and less of another is the cure for a better country or better politics is balls.

    “We need women in charge” - I give you May, Truss, Braverman, etc.

    “We need more minorities in positions of power” - thank you Rishi, Cleverly, Braverman, etc

    So more state educated politicians and fewer public/private schoolers might make a difference, it might be the same, might be worse but ultimately all that matters are the character and the abilities of the individuals not their backgrounds or skin colour of whether they have a cock or not.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Could the UK soon have the most working-class cabinet of all time?
    More than three-quarters of the shadow cabinet attended state schools'
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/could-the-uk-soon-have-the-most-working-class-cabinet-of-all-time?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719763506

    Given what the etonians and wykehamites have delivered, this will surely be a positive for 92% of voters
    Wykehamists surely. Unless this is an allusion to some specialised perversion?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I need an opinion poll. Getting grumpy.

    Why? Just relax a bit. Election results (you know, actual votes) will be trickling in by just past 11 pm Thursday night. The outcome is not in doubt. Starmer will be kissing the ring on Friday.
    I’m hugely relaxed. After a busy week I’m back in Surrey sitting with dogs watching Wimbledon.

    I just need an opinion poll. Or several.
    Why?
    Duh. Because I enjoy politics and political betting. And I love General Elections. This one in particular. It has been the most enjoyable campaign of my life.
    Elections are exciting when its a close result. This is just plain boring, the only thing of interest is what happens the Conservatives when they lose.
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274
    Andy_JS said:

    "United States | Operation Rescue Biden

    Why Joe Biden won’t go
    There is something Trumpian about the Democratic Party’s denial of reality"

    https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/06/30/why-joe-biden-wont-go

    I wonder if Trump wants him to stay or go?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,912
    Scott_xP said:

    If the Supreme Court rules this afternoon that Trump is NOT immune (yeah, I know, but go with it) does that give Biden the cover to withdraw?

    Surely it HAS to rule that Trump is not immune, otherwise it gives the president (Biden) carte blanche to do anything.
    The USA doesn't want a king.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1807720494126227474?s=46

    Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.

    19th safest Tory seat.

    If you were running those ads your biggest problem would be having to mention the name 'Priti Patel'. I don't know the constituency but that name alone would surely be a call to action for every potential voter to hunt for her nearest challenger
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,193

    Nigelb said:

    148grss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity should be out around 10am Eastern time.

    6 - 3 ruling with opinions by Alito and Thomas arguing the 6 should have gone further
    I mean, obviously the following is a joke and the Dems wouldn't do it: but if the ruling does accept the Trump teams legal theory then Biden could do the funniest thing and have Trump whacked. The Trump team did argue it would be legal for the President to assassinate a political rival or to do a coup, so they can't complain if Biden then does it...

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/04/25/trump-attorney-john-sauer-doubles-down-on-argument-that-presidents-are-immune-from-assassinating-political-rivals-at-supreme-court/
    Well, they can complain - just not to the courts.

    The reality is, though, that Trump's GOP is far more likely to abuse presidential power than are the Democrats.
    Which is why we are where we are.
    oh give over, you stick with this line the Dems never do anything wrong.

    For months youve been denying theres anything wrong with Biden when there clearly is.

    The man running the US is not capable of doing so.
    Is there anyone on here who actually thinks that Biden IS capable of being US president?

    If there is, would that person argue the same if it wasn't Trump that he was up against?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Farooq said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I need an opinion poll. Getting grumpy.

    Why? Just relax a bit. Election results (you know, actual votes) will be trickling in by just past 11 pm Thursday night. The outcome is not in doubt. Starmer will be kissing the ring on Friday.
    I’m hugely relaxed. After a busy week I’m back in Surrey sitting with dogs watching Wimbledon.

    I just need an opinion poll. Or several. I want to see if things shifted since the last data aeonstwo days ago
    Are the dogs enjoying the tennis, and are you also watching?
    They are and I am. Good opening on Centre so far.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    Establishment = people who run your pension fund

    they can always be replaced.
    Of course they can but they will still have a duty to maximise returns for their investors (witness the ESG pushback in the US) and hence whoever runs them if they think this policy or that is going to be bad for returns they will vote with their feet. cf Liz Truss.
    Might be a tad harder with someone who has just won a general election.

    I doubt Le Pen will be daft enough to let her "commons" leader accept an offer to form a government unless they have an absolute majority though.

    At least this side of the next presidential elections though.
    She may have no choice, the centre right could be Kingmakers and refuse to support a leftwing PM either and Macron's block plus the centre right would also have no majority
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,401
    HYUFD said:

    'Could the UK soon have the most working-class cabinet of all time?
    More than three-quarters of the shadow cabinet attended state schools'
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/could-the-uk-soon-have-the-most-working-class-cabinet-of-all-time?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719763506

    Properly educated people; sat alongside people who would do 'ordinary' jobs, have friends likewise.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    HYUFD said:

    @YouGov
    Implied voting intention if tactical voting were not necessary

    Labour: 29% (-8 compared to actual voting intention)
    Conservative: 18% (-2)
    Reform UK: 16% (=)
    Green: 13% (+6)
    Lib Dem: 12% (-2)
    Other: 9% (+3)
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1807686038191567270

    Traffic light coalition government. I could live with that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    'Could the UK soon have the most working-class cabinet of all time?
    More than three-quarters of the shadow cabinet attended state schools'
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/could-the-uk-soon-have-the-most-working-class-cabinet-of-all-time?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1719763506

    Given what the etonians and wykehamites have delivered, this will surely be a positive for 92% of voters
    Wykehamists surely. Unless this is an allusion to some specialised perversion?
    Ahem
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,934

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I need an opinion poll. Getting grumpy.

    Why? Just relax a bit. Election results (you know, actual votes) will be trickling in by just past 11 pm Thursday night. The outcome is not in doubt. Starmer will be kissing the ring on Friday.
    I’m hugely relaxed. After a busy week I’m back in Surrey sitting with dogs watching Wimbledon.

    I just need an opinion poll. Or several.
    Why?
    Duh. Because I enjoy politics and political betting. And I love General Elections. This one in particular. It has been the most enjoyable campaign of my life.
    Elections are exciting when its a close result. This is just plain boring, the only thing of interest is what happens the Conservatives when they lose.
    Elections are exciting when one's own side is looking like winning, or the side one doesn't like is looking like losing. I can see that for Conservative (or SNP) supporters this election would be boring, or at best morbidly fascinating. But for Labour supporters, Reform supporters and - with the usual caveats - Lib Dem supporters this is an exciting election.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    So, basically an open acknowledgement that financial institutions are being used as economic paramilitaries by the establishment to depose governments they don't like.

    As happened here a couple of years back

    "How markets are ready to ‘do the dirty job’ of fighting Le Pen
    Bond traders are already reacting to the risk of unfettered spending under National Rally."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/01/how-markets-are-ready-to-do-dirty-job-fighting-le-pen/

    Establishment = your pension fund.
    Establishment = people who run your pension fund

    they can always be replaced.
    Of course they can but they will still have a duty to maximise returns for their investors (witness the ESG pushback in the US) and hence whoever runs them if they think this policy or that is going to be bad for returns they will vote with their feet. cf Liz Truss.
    Might be a tad harder with someone who has just won a general election.

    I doubt Le Pen will be daft enough to let her "commons" leader accept an offer to form a government unless they have an absolute majority though.

    At least this side of the next presidential elections though.
    She may have no choice, the centre right could be Kingmakers and refuse to support a leftwing PM either and Macron's block plus the centre right would also have no majority
    Arguably it might be better for Le Pen if RN don’t get a majority. Allows her to campaign in 2027 with a “we would have done X, Y, Z but the other parties have stopped us” message.

  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Stocky said:

    Nigelb said:

    148grss said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Supreme Court decision on presidential immunity should be out around 10am Eastern time.

    6 - 3 ruling with opinions by Alito and Thomas arguing the 6 should have gone further
    I mean, obviously the following is a joke and the Dems wouldn't do it: but if the ruling does accept the Trump teams legal theory then Biden could do the funniest thing and have Trump whacked. The Trump team did argue it would be legal for the President to assassinate a political rival or to do a coup, so they can't complain if Biden then does it...

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/04/25/trump-attorney-john-sauer-doubles-down-on-argument-that-presidents-are-immune-from-assassinating-political-rivals-at-supreme-court/
    Well, they can complain - just not to the courts.

    The reality is, though, that Trump's GOP is far more likely to abuse presidential power than are the Democrats.
    Which is why we are where we are.
    oh give over, you stick with this line the Dems never do anything wrong.

    For months youve been denying theres anything wrong with Biden when there clearly is.

    The man running the US is not capable of doing so.
    Is there anyone on here who actually thinks that Biden IS capable of being US president?

    If there is, would that person argue the same if it wasn't Trump that he was up against?
    I think if I had a vote, I would vote Biden over Trump as a lesser of two evils because even if Biden is incapable / did die - the Democratic party operation behind him is less evil than Trump and the GOP. I just think that the Dems are being reckless by taking an unnecessary risk by putting out a weak candidate against Trump. Sure, no other Dem is outperforming Biden, but they are all hovering at the same figures - Biden isn't clearly doing better than "generic Dem". And failing to have a primary didn't give anyone a chance to get more name recognition or show they were a good campaigner to get the skills needed to run for POTUS.
  • highwayparadise306highwayparadise306 Posts: 1,274
    I feel the Lib Dems may get more than 50 seats. Up to 60. Lots of boards in Surrey. Parts of Hampshire. West Sussex and Cheltenham. S. Wiltshire I saw some around Sailsbury area. Not definite on this. What do people on here think?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,679
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @benrileysmith

    The leafy backdrop for stop two on Keir Starmer’s home counties tour. Thatched roof, church tower. A tractor just drove by. Traditional Tory country.

    https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1807749045101674750

    Where is he exactly ?

    Thatched roof reminds me more of a LD/Con battleground area tbh.
    Buckingham and Bletchly, 146th on Labour target list. Robert Maxwell was of course briefly Labour MP for Buckingham from 1964-1970
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    HYUFD said:

    @YouGov
    Implied voting intention if tactical voting were not necessary

    Labour: 29% (-8 compared to actual voting intention)
    Conservative: 18% (-2)
    Reform UK: 16% (=)
    Green: 13% (+6)
    Lib Dem: 12% (-2)
    Other: 9% (+3)
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1807686038191567270

    Traffic light coalition government. I could live with that.
    54% for Lab/Lib/Green with PR does challenge the sort of mainstream wisdom that the country is, at the end of the day, small c conservative.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,275
    edited July 1

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I need an opinion poll. Getting grumpy.

    Why? Just relax a bit. Election results (you know, actual votes) will be trickling in by just past 11 pm Thursday night. The outcome is not in doubt. Starmer will be kissing the ring on Friday.
    I’m hugely relaxed. After a busy week I’m back in Surrey sitting with dogs watching Wimbledon.

    I just need an opinion poll. Or several.
    Why?
    Duh. Because I enjoy politics and political betting. And I love General Elections. This one in particular. It has been the most enjoyable campaign of my life.
    Elections are exciting when its a close result. This is just plain boring, the only thing of interest is what happens the Conservatives when they lose.
    If some of the polls are to be believed it could be very close between the Tories and the Lib Dems to determine which party will be His Majesty's Loyal Opposition. That would be exciting.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    Andy_JS said:
    Life expectancy in days?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365
    TimS said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    I need an opinion poll. Getting grumpy.

    Why? Just relax a bit. Election results (you know, actual votes) will be trickling in by just past 11 pm Thursday night. The outcome is not in doubt. Starmer will be kissing the ring on Friday.
    I’m hugely relaxed. After a busy week I’m back in Surrey sitting with dogs watching Wimbledon.

    I just need an opinion poll. Or several.
    Why?
    Duh. Because I enjoy politics and political betting. And I love General Elections. This one in particular. It has been the most enjoyable campaign of my life.
    Elections are exciting when its a close result. This is just plain boring, the only thing of interest is what happens the Conservatives when they lose.
    Elections are exciting when one's own side is looking like winning, or the side one doesn't like is looking like losing. I can see that for Conservative (or SNP) supporters this election would be boring, or at best morbidly fascinating. But for Labour supporters, Reform supporters and - with the usual caveats - Lib Dem supporters this is an exciting election.
    I agree, but the problem this time round is there is bugger all policy difference between Sunak and Starmer. no marked regime change or excitement of a fresh leader. Its just plus ca change.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,401
    edited July 1
    Roger said:

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1807720494126227474?s=46

    Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.

    19th safest Tory seat.

    If you were running those ads your biggest problem would be having to mention the name 'Priti Patel'. I don't know the constituency but that name alone would surely be a call to action for every potential voter to hunt for her nearest challenger
    I posted earlier today that Electoral Calculus shows her margin over Labour decreasing. Now she's only 0.4% ahead, and those Facebook posts attract quite a few Reform 'critics'!
  • bobbobbobbob Posts: 100
    edited July 1
    Heathener said:

    bobbob said:

    I’ve read so much about the election but so little is talked about the elephant in the room

    Rishi Sunak is not white

    Some voters will not vote or be v reluctant to vote for a minority PM even if most won’t admit it

    It is reflected in the CON polling and the final election result though

    It’s taboo to even mention it because it’s not PC to mention race and people in their bubbles like to deny racism exists

    Just so we can cut to the chase, what are your view on Gay Rights? And on Ukraine?
    Gay rights are an important civil liberty as people should be able to do they want but some people are obsessed with an issue that doesn’t matter to most people

    You do bring up a relevent point. I don’t think the UK would vote for a gay man as a leader either . They wouldn’t publicly admit that though !

    From what I saw Ukraine weren’t very good in the euros but thats to be expected given the invasion
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,933
    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Here's one for our resident conspiracy theorists.

    Here is the very strange flight path the Russian plane that ended up parked beside Trump’s plane at Dulles airport flew to avoid flight restrictions due to sanctions over the war in Ukraine. Apparently the plane was allowed to land in New York and D.C in order to fly diplomats and maybe spies out of the U.S.
    I have flown to both airports many times. There are a lot of spaces to park planes at both JFK and Dulles. Parking the Russian plane in such close proximity to a presidential candidates plane could be considered a security breach if the candidate was not an associate of Russia and possibly a Russian asset.
    Trump’s Secret Service detail had to approve of Putin’s plane parking so close to Trump and his plane. As well as approve a UAE plane lining up beside Trump and the Russian plane. Very suspicious...

    https://x.com/RealMartyT7/status/1807218142889783298

    Is there a thread? I can only see that first tweet and there's nothing of any substance in there.
    There is, but only worth pursuing for the devoted conspiracy theorists.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    edited July 1
    Roger said:

    https://x.com/whotargetsme/status/1807720494126227474?s=46

    Priti Patel (Witham, majority 25,669, 353rd safest Tory seat), has started running Facebook ads in the last couple of days. Very unlikely the seat will change hands.

    19th safest Tory seat.

    If you were running those ads your biggest problem would be having to mention the name 'Priti Patel'. I don't know the constituency but that name alone would surely be a call to action for every potential voter to hunt for her nearest challenger
    In the ad she helpfully tells you which party is the challenger:

    "Priti Patel Witham's strong local voice v. Starmers Labour candidate from Luton"

    That's: Priti Patel [former CCHQ A-lister parachuted in by Cameron] Witham's strong 'local' voice, btw.
This discussion has been closed.