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It’s not getting any better for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
It’s not getting any better for the Tories – politicalbetting.com
First off, it’s worth saying what an historic election this is. It seems likely that the Conservatives will have the fewest MPs of recent times and possibly ever. We may see the largest ever swing between two major parties.
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A quick look at the state of the LLG vs RefCon combined votes in the most recent I can see online, and it's remarkable how little has changed since before the campaign started. All the noise has been between Con and Ref, and between the 3 centre-left parties.
More in Common: 56:37
Norstat: 57:38
Ipsos: 60:34
WeThink: 59:36
JLP: 57:40 (JLP always the highest scoring for the right)
Survation: 58:32 (that's the lowest for the right)
R&W: 60:37
So a range of only 4 points between highest and lowest LLP, and 8 between highest and lowest RefCon
Hmmm...
A truly epic piece of science.
Analysis of Greek prehistoric combat in full body armour based on physiological principles: A series of studies using thematic analysis, human experiments, and numerical simulations
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0301494
One of the oldest complete suits of European armour was discovered in 1960 near the village of Dendra, in Southern Greece, but it remained unknown whether this armour was suitable for extended use in battle or was purely ceremonial. This had limited our understanding of the ancient Greek–Late Bronze Age–warfare and its consequences that have underpinned the social transformations of prehistoric Europe and Eastern Mediterranean. In a series of archeo-physiological studies, merging knowledge in archaeology, history, human physiology, and numerical simulation, we provide supporting evidence that the Mycenaean armour found at Dendra was entirely compatible with use in extended combat, and we provide a free software enabling simulation of Late Bronze Age warfare. A group of special armed-forces personnel wearing a replica of the Dendra armour were able to complete an 11-hour simulated Late Bronze Age combat protocol that we developed from a series of studies based on the available evidence. Numerical simulation of the thermal exchanges in Late Bronze Age warfare extended this conclusion across different environmental conditions and fighting intensities. Our results support the notion that the Mycenaeans had such a powerful impact in Eastern Mediterranean at least partly as a result of their armour technology…
… As no historical accounts or descriptions survive from the Greek Late Bronze Age regarding the scope and use of armour of the Dendra type, we turned to a key–and only–detailed early account of warfare, battle, and single combat: Homer’s epic account of 10 days in the Trojan War, the Iliad. …
Can't wait.
This includes one gain from Labour - Cambridge!
This has all been evident for weeks if not months. The by-elections and the Clacton constituency poll all showed the Conservatives losing most ground in their strongest seats.
We could easily see 25% or even a 30% swing in some seats next week if nothing changes.
Extraordinary.
Whoever replaces Putin will be far worse (if we are lucky he might be less skilled at the art of politics (unless less skilled in the Kaiser Bill sense).
One reason Putin went in in 2022 was becsause it was a domestic issue big enough that he might have been vulnerable to hardliners if he didn't.
Yeah, I think the methodology might need a bit more refinement on this one.
HOWEVER...
Weeks ago when we were talking about @RochdalePioneers' 66/1 odds, I said that it might be a decent strategy to just put £1 each on the Lib Dems and Reform, in a bunch of seats where they were currently 50/1 - 100/1 odds or thereabouts - because when you get to lopsided poll shares, under FPTP there could turn out to be parties coming through the middle galore.
I think for small stakes there might be value here or there on the above for unexpected wins.
"Richmond and Northallerton - Labour"
If that happens there will be no more 'Portillo moments'. From now until the end of time, it will be a 'Rishi moment' instead.
"BreConservatives, Radnor and Cwm Tawe - Lib Dems"
Still they are going to get a kicking the like of which we have never seen in British politics, or indeed in British history.
Irritatingly it dosent seem to list where these 19 are.
Police arrested a man in his mid-20s on suspicion of harassment and offences under the Online Safety Act in London on Wednesday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpvv3lq79dro
Seriously, that is straight from the textbook. And if you follow the history of deposed or naturally dying tyrants, most of the time it’s bogus.
I can’t see beyond 5-7, and that’s on a very good day. 2 is more likely. 3, 1 and 0 are plausible.
So let's switch their election over here. I don't see why not.
It's also one of the reasons I decided to not become an MP,
I suspect a lot of these Reform wins are places which used to be Con 60 Lab 15 Lib 15 Grn 5 Ref 5- lots of Conservative votes to reallocate, not much of a sign where to reallocate them.
Truss getting punted, on the other hand, that would bring the nation together.
No kidding. At this point extinction level event (eg around 50 seats) is more likely than 150 seats.
He's at denial and I am the acceptance stage.
While he is ruthless, he is not crazy. We might not be so lucky with who follows.
Whoever is the official opposition out of the Lib Dems or the newly combined Tory Reform force, would surely have the better chance in 2029…
And Theresa "Go Home" May was not much of a better alternative.
Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury’s answers at public event suggest party’s spending could go far beyond public declarations
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/26/labour-net-zero-plans-hundreds-billions-darren-jones-audio/
One strange thing about all of this, is it will be using PFI, which was absolutely toxic only a few years ago. The media used to run stories every week about how it cost £300 to change a light bulb or they couldn't mow their own sports field, because a moron from government didn't read the small print of PFI contracts.
It's outside our experience therefore we don't accept it.
IF it is wrong and the Conservatives come out the other side with 120 seats there will be a lot of egg on a lot of faces. If it's 50-80 seats, it'll be a different story.
What do you think will happen - we still have a week, a lifetime in politics as someone once said. Sunak may be brilliant tonight and rally the Conservative vote but it really is the last orders in the last chance saloon.
Except...
We know the Conservatives will play the social media card hard in the last 72 hours.
https://x.com/NicholasTyrone/status/1806000575135297617
Which means I voted Labour and was then presented with a Labour leaflet on small boat migrants that was so misdirected I would have voted Lib Dem if it had arrived 4 hours earlier...
Fantastic win by Emma Raducanu. She beats a top 10 opponent for the first time. That comes on top of some stunning form from Katie Boulter.
British ladies tennis is in good shape right now.
As of earlier this afternoon you could still get Raducanu at 30/1 for Wimbledon and Boulter at 70/1.
Will they do it? Probably not but those are attractive odds.
xx
I don't support the Tories' voter ID changes*, but not all changes 'making it easier to vote' are automatically a good thing.
To take it to an extreme, votes at 12 would be making it easier to vote, but most people would not support that, quite reasonably. Allowing any foreign nationals to vote in all elections would be making it easier to vote, but would that be fair and reasonable, when to my knowledge no country operates that widely?
On votes at 16 I am not in favour of it, but it is a simple change to enact and for whatever reason support for it has been growing among political circles, so I'm more or less resigned to it.
Electoral changes tend to be proposed because those doing it think they will benefit, and whether they do or not not if they are reasonable they stick around. So Labour believing they will gain an advantage is not intrinsically wrong if the principal is still sound, or at least arguable.
But it is also the case that just because something is proposed for a supposedly positive reason, does not mean it is a good idea. Some people support electronic voting as it would be faster and you coudl do it from your phone or something, but in fact it is a terrible idea.
Auto-enrollment I'd need to see more details about, as it sounds reasonable but what is the reason it is not already the case (evil Tories cannot always be the answer).
*Weirdly, Labour are not proposing reversing the Tory voter ID changes.
Genuine ROFL there
Ashfield.
Barnsley South
Boston & Skegness.
Broadland and Fakenham.
Burton and Uttoxeter.
Cannock Chase
Clacton.
Cotswold North.
Fareham and Waterlooville.
Gosport.
Great Yarmouth.
Huntington. (More Peas John. Oh Yes)
Louth and Horncastle.
Orpington.
Plymouth Moor View.
Skipton and Ripon.
Suffolk South.
Washington and Gateshead South.
The war is a catastrophe for Russia. The only thing keeping it going is the pride and political investment of the regime. Even if Putin is succeeded by an extremist it’s very likely one of the first things they do is bring the boys home.
For one thing the opposition parties are going to be so close-ish on seat count that the broadcasters are probably going to have to change the balance rules.
Then you have the fact that REFCON are cumulatively polling about 33% whereas the LDs are polling around 11-13%.
In all likelihood in makes Labours job much easier because it dilutes the opposition message, being split between LD, CON, REF.
Look at Canada for parallels. They’ve had parties relegated to third or worse before that then make comebacks.
Probably the latter, because unless the LDs became a lot more small c conservative, it seems there would be too big a chunk of the public who want a centre right option to support a government and main opposition both being centre to centre-left.
It went from a minor thing that was basically sold as a way for the government to get the private sector to take on some risk / upgrading infrastructure through a mortgage type deal, to under Brown basically how everything was done (and at the time off the books).
30/1 is a fun flutter nonetheless.
Its quite probable this war ends with Putin stepping too close to a window, then his successor ending this misadventure.
However, similar but not exact could still be enough for significant changes. Even a horrible dictator replacement might make different choices if only to preserve their own power and place.
The current main route (Tory and Labour) to massaging spending is by the bogus formula for borrowing: It's OK as long as there is a paper plan to get net debt to fall as a % of GDP in the fifth year of the five year plan.
the bogus bit is this:
In 2024 this applies to the paper plan in 2029
In 2025 it applies to 2030
In 2030 it applies to 2035 etc for ever. You never deliver. It's a fraud.
PFI restoration would be another possible bogus plan. The one after that is to raid the piggy bank of all children under 4. There isn't one after that.
Watch this one. It will be interesting.
That was the position of the War Office and the Foreign Office in the UK - when the generals opposed to Hitler reached out.
Now they can't shove it off the books, but lets see if any lessons have been learned about costing of these things.
Who leads Russia is their problem; we have to deal with whoever it might be.
And I think you mean supersede, not superseed…
As some speculate it might cost them a few Wets, but in terms of voter base it would probably be much larger.
Indeed it seems very unlikely they get a friendly pro-Westerner any time soon. We were talking about natural causes death anyway, not revolution. But that doesn’t matter.
But there is plenty of history of tyrants shuffling off the stage and their successors taking the opportunity to reboot when there are catastrophic wars or domestic policies, even when the successors are monsters themselves.
Ukraine
Estonia
Georgia
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
There's no guarantees it will happen, but plenty of precedence that it could.
Which was his point, if you didn’t get it.
Lab 40
Ref 17
Con 15
LD 14