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Sir Keir Starmer: The Corbyn slayer? – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    Little by little, the Handmaid’s Tale becomes a slightly less unbelievable piece of fiction.

    Conservative US lawmakers are pushing for an end to no-fault divorce
    Republicans in Louisiana, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas have discussed eliminating or restricting such cases
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/25/republicans-no-fault-divorce

    By your reasoning the USA of JFK must have been the Handmaiden's Tale in practice.
    Direction of travel.

    And you appear not to have noticed the phrases “little by little”, or “slightly less unbelievable”.
    That aside, good observation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited June 25
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still confused by the Assange developments. Why did the US suddenly change its mind about him?

    There is an election coming....or he had some information to trade for.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,241

    biggles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Putin's catamite is at it again.

    Ukraine should agree to a peace deal with Russia or run the risk that every young Ukrainian man will be killed, Nigel Farage has said in an escalation of his views on the war.

    The Reform UK leader said that in the interests of peace, President Zelensky should rethink his ambition to reclaim all territory lost to President Putin’s invasion. Farage also launched a fresh attack on Boris Johnson for rejecting the prospect of a peace deal, which had resulted in countless deaths.

    Johnson has championed Britain’s support for Ukraine and remains close friends with Zelensky.

    Farage said greater efforts were needed to broker negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and that Britain and other western allies were being unrealistic in their support of Zelensky’s goal to drive the invading forces back into Russia.

    He said reclaiming Crimean territory was going to be “incredibly difficult”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-zelensky-should-seek-peace-or-risk-losing-every-young-ukrainian-man-gg5bp93nt

    Surely, "Russia should withdraw from Ukraine or run the risk that every young Russian man will be killed".

    I mean the two are functionally identical, especially given that Russia is taking far worse casualties and their latest offensive has stalled.
    Farage is clearly just not bought in to the moral argument. And in that’s he’s at odds with the majority of Brits.
    The Ukrainians are making some progress in hitting Russian air defence systems and have the prospect of achieving some degree of air superiority when the F16s and Mirages arrive. No wonder Putin shills are pushing for "peace".
    Touched by Nige's concern for the welfare of the Ukrainians, though.
    Sadly its all about manpower and ukraine has less men.
    It really isn't. It's about technological innovation and industrial production.

    I am still optimistic that Ukraine's drone industry will defeat Russia on land as it has done in the sea.
    Maybe. Then we come to the question of tactical nukes.
    I do wonder if Ukraine still has some
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,666
    edited June 25

    biggles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Putin's catamite is at it again.

    Ukraine should agree to a peace deal with Russia or run the risk that every young Ukrainian man will be killed, Nigel Farage has said in an escalation of his views on the war.

    The Reform UK leader said that in the interests of peace, President Zelensky should rethink his ambition to reclaim all territory lost to President Putin’s invasion. Farage also launched a fresh attack on Boris Johnson for rejecting the prospect of a peace deal, which had resulted in countless deaths.

    Johnson has championed Britain’s support for Ukraine and remains close friends with Zelensky.

    Farage said greater efforts were needed to broker negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and that Britain and other western allies were being unrealistic in their support of Zelensky’s goal to drive the invading forces back into Russia.

    He said reclaiming Crimean territory was going to be “incredibly difficult”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-zelensky-should-seek-peace-or-risk-losing-every-young-ukrainian-man-gg5bp93nt

    Surely, "Russia should withdraw from Ukraine or run the risk that every young Russian man will be killed".

    I mean the two are functionally identical, especially given that Russia is taking far worse casualties and their latest offensive has stalled.
    Farage is clearly just not bought in to the moral argument. And in that’s he’s at odds with the majority of Brits.
    The Ukrainians are making some progress in hitting Russian air defence systems and have the prospect of achieving some degree of air superiority when the F16s and Mirages arrive. No wonder Putin shills are pushing for "peace".
    Touched by Nige's concern for the welfare of the Ukrainians, though.
    Sadly its all about manpower and ukraine has less men.
    It really isn't. It's about technological innovation and industrial production.

    I am still optimistic that Ukraine's drone industry will defeat Russia on land as it has done in the sea.
    Maybe. Then we come to the question of tactical nukes.
    Yeah. One should have been dropped on the Kremlin at the very start.

    Would anyone in Russia actually care? I think most of them would be pretty pleased. None of this is doing much for their living standards.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    edited June 25

    Southgate hasn’t got a clue has he.

    That's a new one on me. Southgate. Is it the scandal about "Levelling Up" - which never actually happened? Or something to do with HS2?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956

    No more polls tonight presusumably. Anyone know please which we can expect tomorrow?

    Good to see you PfP, hope you are keeping well!

    What bets do you have for UK 2024?
    Thanks Double C ... your kind words are absolutely reciprocated on my part.
    I'm mainly on the spreads, selling the Blue team down from 160 seats and buying the reds up from 430 seats. Also a variety of fixed odds bets favouring large Labour majorities, etc.
    We haven't yet booked the Caribbean holiday yet but something rather better than a long weekend in Clacton is definitely in prospect!
    Where is your betting focused?
    Ah thanks PfP great to hear from you :smiley:

    Going to start betting this week hopefully, looking at Con seats >100, also very safe Con seats (eg 60%+ in 2019 vote) where there's a decent return eg 30-40%.

    That's my starting point.

    For all the other almost 40 or so countries that I follow, the UK election night is probably still genuinely my favourite.

    Good luck with your bets!
    If the polls currently have it right, then the betting value has ebbed away during the campaign, an example being that Tory seats on the spreads are down from around 160+ to the present level of circa 117 seats mid-spread. Of course there's still time for the Blue Team to have a late surge which has actually been the case in just about every G.E. over the last 30 years.

    Good luck with your POTUS betting DC. I'll be looking out for your predictions ... the first presumably whether Biden and/or Trump will actually be their respective parties' candidates?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Slightly problem: are Conservative votes in Montgomeryshire / Bristol NW, Labour votes in Central Suffolk, and RefUK votes in Welwyn Hatfield and Bexhill&Battle going to count towards the overall vote totals and percentages? Because on the ballot papers they still appear as official candidates for those parties, and it could make a difference to the final share of votes used by, for example, betting companies to settle bets.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,989

    biggles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Putin's catamite is at it again.

    Ukraine should agree to a peace deal with Russia or run the risk that every young Ukrainian man will be killed, Nigel Farage has said in an escalation of his views on the war.

    The Reform UK leader said that in the interests of peace, President Zelensky should rethink his ambition to reclaim all territory lost to President Putin’s invasion. Farage also launched a fresh attack on Boris Johnson for rejecting the prospect of a peace deal, which had resulted in countless deaths.

    Johnson has championed Britain’s support for Ukraine and remains close friends with Zelensky.

    Farage said greater efforts were needed to broker negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and that Britain and other western allies were being unrealistic in their support of Zelensky’s goal to drive the invading forces back into Russia.

    He said reclaiming Crimean territory was going to be “incredibly difficult”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-zelensky-should-seek-peace-or-risk-losing-every-young-ukrainian-man-gg5bp93nt

    Surely, "Russia should withdraw from Ukraine or run the risk that every young Russian man will be killed".

    I mean the two are functionally identical, especially given that Russia is taking far worse casualties and their latest offensive has stalled.
    Farage is clearly just not bought in to the moral argument. And in that’s he’s at odds with the majority of Brits.
    The Ukrainians are making some progress in hitting Russian air defence systems and have the prospect of achieving some degree of air superiority when the F16s and Mirages arrive. No wonder Putin shills are pushing for "peace".
    Touched by Nige's concern for the welfare of the Ukrainians, though.
    Sadly its all about manpower and ukraine has less men.
    It really isn't. It's about technological innovation and industrial production.

    I am still optimistic that Ukraine's drone industry will defeat Russia on land as it has done in the sea.
    Maybe. Then we come to the question of tactical nukes.
    You’re still here then.

    You have had a reasonably long tenure because you haven’t gone straight for the antivax or WEF stuff. But you have still gone from posting zero only about 3 days ago to being prolific now, largely on one topic.

    So some honesty please. Are you based in the UK? Are you voting in next week’s election? Are you paid to write on here? If so, what’s the going rate? If not, what brought you to this forum?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still confused by the Assange developments. Why did the US suddenly change its mind about him?

    It didn't. It decided a guilty plea and time served was worth more than the cost and hassle of a conviction that though felt was overwhelmingly likely, would've had to go through a lot to get him to stand trial, and then would've presented a circus could do without.
  • Andy_JS said:

    I'm still confused by the Assange developments. Why did the US suddenly change its mind about him?

    "Suddenly" is an odd term in the context of a plea deal.

    You need to be absolutely gung-ho about it until the moment the deal is sealed. You cannot say, "well, we think he's guilty of all sorts but may change our mind". You're either all in or all out.

    None of this is very surprising. It's all very old news, very expensive, and with some risk of failing to obtain a convictions. This way, they have a conviction, albeit limited, and the costs stop.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,084
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Putin's catamite is at it again.

    Ukraine should agree to a peace deal with Russia or run the risk that every young Ukrainian man will be killed, Nigel Farage has said in an escalation of his views on the war.

    The Reform UK leader said that in the interests of peace, President Zelensky should rethink his ambition to reclaim all territory lost to President Putin’s invasion. Farage also launched a fresh attack on Boris Johnson for rejecting the prospect of a peace deal, which had resulted in countless deaths.

    Johnson has championed Britain’s support for Ukraine and remains close friends with Zelensky.

    Farage said greater efforts were needed to broker negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and that Britain and other western allies were being unrealistic in their support of Zelensky’s goal to drive the invading forces back into Russia.

    He said reclaiming Crimean territory was going to be “incredibly difficult”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-zelensky-should-seek-peace-or-risk-losing-every-young-ukrainian-man-gg5bp93nt

    Well hes shown hes a man of principle. Theres no electoral advantage to this but he keeps running with it. And hes right Russia has many more men than ukraine so can outlast them in a war of attrition.
    That's why the Soviets won in Afghanistan and the Americans won in Vietnam.
    It's the standard 'Russia is too strong, I care about Ukraine so they should give up' crap that has been parroted for years now. As if no lesser nation has ever won a war, or made opponents success too costly before.
    Ww1 was a war of attrition. Germany had double the population of ukraine and lasted 4 and a half years. So by my estimate ukraine at best lasts 3 years here. Then its all over.
    Germany's main problem was not population but supplies - food, munitions etc. As long as the West keep supplying Ukraine then they do at least have a chance. Bear in mind what you are claiming here is that Ukraine will collapse by next February. That is a bold prediction.
    Ok but Russia has knocked out much of Ukraines power grid now. They will have a very difficult miserable winter. I feel for them.
    Then why aren't you on the streets of St Petersburg campaigning for Russian withdrawal?
    I wish they could come up with some new lines, we did the 'I just feel bad for the poor Ukrainians' lie years ago.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,604
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Little by little, the Handmaid’s Tale becomes a slightly less unbelievable piece of fiction.

    Conservative US lawmakers are pushing for an end to no-fault divorce
    Republicans in Louisiana, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas have discussed eliminating or restricting such cases
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jun/25/republicans-no-fault-divorce

    By your reasoning the USA of JFK must have been the Handmaiden's Tale in practice.
    Direction of travel.

    And you appear not to have noticed the phrases “little by little”, or “slightly less unbelievable”.
    That aside, good observation.
    So you've gone from the 'scary suggestion' of Handmaiden's Tale to acknowledging its not going to happen

    Now can direction of travels go in something other than a straight line ?

    Yes they can and that's not just good but also necessary in a democracy.

    If a policy is believed to be having an overall negative effect its perfectly justifiable to change it.

    Its the responsibility and opportunity of those involved to argue for their beliefs.
  • GrandcanyonGrandcanyon Posts: 105

    biggles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Putin's catamite is at it again.

    Ukraine should agree to a peace deal with Russia or run the risk that every young Ukrainian man will be killed, Nigel Farage has said in an escalation of his views on the war.

    The Reform UK leader said that in the interests of peace, President Zelensky should rethink his ambition to reclaim all territory lost to President Putin’s invasion. Farage also launched a fresh attack on Boris Johnson for rejecting the prospect of a peace deal, which had resulted in countless deaths.

    Johnson has championed Britain’s support for Ukraine and remains close friends with Zelensky.

    Farage said greater efforts were needed to broker negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and that Britain and other western allies were being unrealistic in their support of Zelensky’s goal to drive the invading forces back into Russia.

    He said reclaiming Crimean territory was going to be “incredibly difficult”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-zelensky-should-seek-peace-or-risk-losing-every-young-ukrainian-man-gg5bp93nt

    Surely, "Russia should withdraw from Ukraine or run the risk that every young Russian man will be killed".

    I mean the two are functionally identical, especially given that Russia is taking far worse casualties and their latest offensive has stalled.
    Farage is clearly just not bought in to the moral argument. And in that’s he’s at odds with the majority of Brits.
    The Ukrainians are making some progress in hitting Russian air defence systems and have the prospect of achieving some degree of air superiority when the F16s and Mirages arrive. No wonder Putin shills are pushing for "peace".
    Touched by Nige's concern for the welfare of the Ukrainians, though.
    Sadly its all about manpower and ukraine has less men.
    It really isn't. It's about technological innovation and industrial production.

    I am still optimistic that Ukraine's drone industry will defeat Russia on land as it has done in the sea.
    Maybe. Then we come to the question of tactical nukes.
    Yeah. One should have been dropped on the Kremlin at the very start.

    Would anyone in Russia actually care? I think most of them would be pretty pleased. None of this is doing much for their living standards.
    I think the attraction to people like Farage for Russia is in some ways its sort of like 1960s britain before multiculturalism. Im sure this informs his views in some ways.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Yougov, Savanta, New Statesman, Electoral Calculus, IPSOS are there any more MRPs/seat models out there ?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861

    Has anyone alerted the Gambling Commission to what must be the very strong possibility Southgate's had "a flutter" that he'll be sacked in July?

    Southgate-gate.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    Andy_JS said:
    Jonathan Haidt work on effects of social media, particularly on the young, are interesting.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Pulpstar said:

    Yougov, Savanta, New Statesman, Electoral Calculus, IPSOS are there any more MRPs/seat models out there ?

    Focaldata, MoreInCommon, Survation.

    Getting the information from here.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#National_poll_results
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Would people put money on Truss in South West Norfolk?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    I apologise for being grumpy and ramping rubbish. My mum attacked Wilbur hard with a cushion he flew in the air, and there’s been a big bust up, and I hadn’t calmed down and wasn’t concentrating properly
    This should make up for how I really see it

    https://news.sky.com/story/scale-of-gambling-scandal-for-tories-is-different-magnitude-to-labours-issue-13158755

    I’m now literally going to sleep outside in a sty
  • Would people put money on Truss in South West Norfolk?

    In the present crazy environment, I'd only do so if I knew f*ck all about it, and my friends all knew even less.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @MattSingh_
    Because I'm feeling generous I've created a Google Sheet with the PA declaration times, tabulated and matched to ONS codes. (AI was involved for this, so please let me know if you spot any errors)

    https://x.com/MattSingh_/status/1805656746305683753

    Thanks, I might be able to use this in conjunction with my predictions spreadsheet.
    Those times presumably don't factor in recounts.
    No they don't.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Looking at the current odds Truss could be a goner.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 795
    edited June 25
    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    biggles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Putin's catamite is at it again.

    Ukraine should agree to a peace deal with Russia or run the risk that every young Ukrainian man will be killed, Nigel Farage has said in an escalation of his views on the war.

    The Reform UK leader said that in the interests of peace, President Zelensky should rethink his ambition to reclaim all territory lost to President Putin’s invasion. Farage also launched a fresh attack on Boris Johnson for rejecting the prospect of a peace deal, which had resulted in countless deaths.

    Johnson has championed Britain’s support for Ukraine and remains close friends with Zelensky.

    Farage said greater efforts were needed to broker negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and that Britain and other western allies were being unrealistic in their support of Zelensky’s goal to drive the invading forces back into Russia.

    He said reclaiming Crimean territory was going to be “incredibly difficult”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-zelensky-should-seek-peace-or-risk-losing-every-young-ukrainian-man-gg5bp93nt

    Surely, "Russia should withdraw from Ukraine or run the risk that every young Russian man will be killed".

    I mean the two are functionally identical, especially given that Russia is taking far worse casualties and their latest offensive has stalled.
    Farage is clearly just not bought in to the moral argument. And in that’s he’s at odds with the majority of Brits.
    To an extent NF leads opinion and does not follow it. His comments will be turning some Fukkers Ukro-skeptical just because it's him that's saying it. Whether his positioning is a net electoral negative remains to be seen. Do voters give a fuck about it compared to Cozzie Livs, Nashie Healths or Immy Grates? I don't recall it polling with high salience on topics that engaged voters.
    Dunno, even taking my own view out of it, I think this sort of thing matters to people.
    I always imagine my grandmother for this sort of thing. Damn right it'll matter to her. She'll say it's disgusting.

    And then she'll vote reform anyway.

    She's fantastic as a barometer for a few different types of voter.
  • Andy_JS said:
    Not being funny, but WTF does "stupid" even mean? As I was saying on X the other day, I reckon they use these long words to make us take the vaxes and agree that Biden won.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Savanta is really bad for the Greens. Has them losing Brighton and nowhere near in Bristol (40% behind). Not sure that passes the sniff test tbh.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited June 25
    BBC News - Cabinet minister admits three election date bets
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czkk0d19kgdo

    This is really stupid story. He bet absolute peanuts way before any decision. Surely nobody is wasting any time worrying about people betting £5-20, and losing.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    edited June 25

    England's path through the knockouts

    Spain, Germany, Portugal and France are all on the other side of the draw and England cannot play any of the quartet before the final.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/c0jjv93e8d3o

    England talent should be good enough to get all the way through that....but....

    That article is incorrect in so far as our game in Düsseldorf would be at 1700 (were we to reach the quarters) not 2000.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Savanta no seats for Reform either. Just a Labour monstering everywhere ! I'll be surprised if it's most accurate...
  • novanova Posts: 690
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still confused by the Assange developments. Why did the US suddenly change its mind about him?

    I think it was due to him winning the right to appeal against extradition last month. I wonder that made the US think it might just go on indefinitely, or could reflect badly if he won the appeal. After all this time, it's an embarrassment for everyone involved.

    At least this way they get it out of the way, and everyone can portray it as some kind of win.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    We were fortunate to win the group

    Sometimes you need a bit of luck to win a tournament

    👍👍👍

    We were not fortunate to win the group. How do you figure that?
    Indeed. We were the best team in the group by a mile and deserved to win it. Doesn’t mean we are anywhere near good enough to go far in the tournament, but we can improve. I thought we were much better today although clearly not great.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    Matt smashing the cartoon game as usual with their take on betting scandal.
  • Tim_in_RuislipTim_in_Ruislip Posts: 435
    edited June 25
    Pulpstar said:
    ...pick yer model...

    Get it right and there's serious moneys to be made.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited June 25

    Pulpstar said:
    ...pick yer model...

    Get it right and there's serious moneys to be made.
    Interesting to see that 4 out of 5 models have John Major's Huntingdon seat going to Labour. That would have been unthinkable until recently. Safest seat in the country back then.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075

    Well the Tories have lost the Whovian vote.

    Kemi Badenoch brands David Tennant ‘rich, lefty, white male celebrity’ in trans row

    Equalities minister says she will not be ‘silenced by a man’ after Doctor Who actor told her to ‘shut up’ and ‘not exist any more’


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/25/kemi-badenoch-brands-david-tennant-rich-lefty-white-male/

    "Don't you think she looks tired"
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075

    I apologise for being grumpy and ramping rubbish. My mum attacked Wilbur hard with a cushion he flew in the air, and there’s been a big bust up, and I hadn’t calmed down and wasn’t concentrating properly
    This should make up for how I really see it

    https://news.sky.com/story/scale-of-gambling-scandal-for-tories-is-different-magnitude-to-labours-issue-13158755

    I’m now literally going to sleep outside in a sty

    Who or what is Wilbur please?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Allison Pearson unmoved by Farage's recent controversial comments.

    "Reform puts British people first – how is that a wasted vote?
    It’s time to send a message to the Tories that their disregard for the British people is unacceptable

    ALLISON PEARSON"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2024/06/25/reform-britain-wasted-vote/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,628
    viewcode said:

    I apologise for being grumpy and ramping rubbish. My mum attacked Wilbur hard with a cushion he flew in the air, and there’s been a big bust up, and I hadn’t calmed down and wasn’t concentrating properly
    This should make up for how I really see it

    https://news.sky.com/story/scale-of-gambling-scandal-for-tories-is-different-magnitude-to-labours-issue-13158755

    I’m now literally going to sleep outside in a sty

    Who or what is Wilbur please?
    You need to read this:

    https://archive.org/details/CharlottesWeb
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    Andy_JS said:

    Allison Pearson unmoved by Farage's recent controversial comments.

    "Reform puts British people first – how is that a wasted vote?
    It’s time to send a message to the Tories that their disregard for the British people is unacceptable

    ALLISON PEARSON"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2024/06/25/reform-britain-wasted-vote/

    There is a bit of the Jezza type cult around Farage...no matter what he does or says, there are some who still say he is messiah.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,696
    viewcode said:

    I apologise for being grumpy and ramping rubbish. My mum attacked Wilbur hard with a cushion he flew in the air, and there’s been a big bust up, and I hadn’t calmed down and wasn’t concentrating properly
    This should make up for how I really see it

    https://news.sky.com/story/scale-of-gambling-scandal-for-tories-is-different-magnitude-to-labours-issue-13158755

    I’m now literally going to sleep outside in a sty

    Who or what is Wilbur please?
    bacon for the 5th july
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    "Trans women with penises can use female toilets, says shadow education secretary
    Remarks sows fresh confusion over Labour’s gender stance"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/25/bridget-phillipson-trans-women-female-toilets-labour-gender/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,258

    biggles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Putin's catamite is at it again.

    Ukraine should agree to a peace deal with Russia or run the risk that every young Ukrainian man will be killed, Nigel Farage has said in an escalation of his views on the war.

    The Reform UK leader said that in the interests of peace, President Zelensky should rethink his ambition to reclaim all territory lost to President Putin’s invasion. Farage also launched a fresh attack on Boris Johnson for rejecting the prospect of a peace deal, which had resulted in countless deaths.

    Johnson has championed Britain’s support for Ukraine and remains close friends with Zelensky.

    Farage said greater efforts were needed to broker negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and that Britain and other western allies were being unrealistic in their support of Zelensky’s goal to drive the invading forces back into Russia.

    He said reclaiming Crimean territory was going to be “incredibly difficult”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-zelensky-should-seek-peace-or-risk-losing-every-young-ukrainian-man-gg5bp93nt

    Surely, "Russia should withdraw from Ukraine or run the risk that every young Russian man will be killed".

    I mean the two are functionally identical, especially given that Russia is taking far worse casualties and their latest offensive has stalled.
    Farage is clearly just not bought in to the moral argument. And in that’s he’s at odds with the majority of Brits.
    The Ukrainians are making some progress in hitting Russian air defence systems and have the prospect of achieving some degree of air superiority when the F16s and Mirages arrive. No wonder Putin shills are pushing for "peace".
    Touched by Nige's concern for the welfare of the Ukrainians, though.
    Sadly its all about manpower and ukraine has less men.
    It really isn't. It's about technological innovation and industrial production.

    I am still optimistic that Ukraine's drone industry will defeat Russia on land as it has done in the sea.
    Maybe. Then we come to the question of tactical nukes.
    I do wonder if Ukraine still has some
    Why do you think the Russians were obsessed with capturing Ukrainian nuclear power stations.

    Each has huge cooling ponds full of spent fuel.

    High burn up - so lots of Pu-240. The longer that fuel remains in a reactor, the more undesirable 240 is created, vs the PU-239 you want for a bomb.

    Commercial reactors try and use fuel for longer - sometimes creating 20-25% Pu-240. This about getting more power out of the fuel.

    It is sometimes claimed that high burn up plutonium (aka commercial plutonium) can’t be used for a bomb. This is not true.

    The US detonated a bomb in 1962 using high burn up plutonium. Using plutonium from the U.K.

    The exact burn up ratio has not been released.

    https://npolicy.org/greg-jones-americas-1962-reactor-grade-plutonium-weapons-test-revisited/

    So the Ukrainians have metric tons of plutonium. Plutonium 240 is nasty - highly radioactive. So much so that a bomb core made from 20% 240 would generate a hundred watts (roughly) of heat, just sitting there. It would require active cooling to stop it damaging the weapon. But what was done in 1962 can be done again.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Focaldata added
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    New York Primary 2024 - polls close in one-half hour.

    South Carolina Republican 2024 Runoff for US House 3rd District
    with 65% reporting (source NYT)

    Sheri Biggs
    18,959 52.6%
    Mark Burns
    17,102 47.4%
    Total reported
    36,061

    SSI - Battle is for open US House seat in heavily-Republican CD3 in upland northwest SC. Biggs is nurse practitioner endorsed by GOP Gov Henry McMasters, while Burns is televagelist and serial past candidate endorsed by Trump.

    Currently Biggs is leading in 8 of 11 counties, and looking at county-by-county numbers am thinking that the she's going to win the nomination, and eventual election this fall.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    In addition to New York and South Carolina, also party primaries - but NOT for POTUS - in Colorado and Utah.

    In CO look for results from US House District 3 Republican primary, where one of the hopefuls is Lauren Boebert, an incumbent in Congress but NOT from this open-seat strongly GOP district on the OTHER side of the Rocky Mountains.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    South Carolina Republican runoff primary 3rd Congressional District
    95% reporting (source NYT) - AP calls race for Biggs

    Sheri Biggs
    27,649 51.1%
    Mark Burns
    26,474 48.9%
    Total reported
    54,123

    New York Democratic Primary 16th Congressional District
    with 27% reporting

    George Latimer - Westchester County Executive
    13,735 55.8%
    Jamaal Bowman - incumbent US Representative
    10,887 44.2%
    Total reported
    24,622
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Colorado Republican Primary 4th Congressional District
    61% reporting (source NYT) - AP has called race for Lauren Boebert

    Lauren Boebert
    37,455 43.8%
    Deborah Flora
    12,945 15.1%
    Mike Lynch
    10,159 11.9%
    Jerry Sonnenberg
    9,854 11.5%
    Richard Holtorf
    8,395 9.8%
    Peter Yu
    6,727 7.9%
    Total reported
    85,535
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited June 26
    Just outside Parca, we find Irena delivering parcels. She’s originally from Latvia and says she works up to 60 hours a week. I jokingly ask what she would do if she were the next prime minister. “I would close the borders!” she says. It’s not the answer we expected.

    Irena arrived here 15 years ago, when the UK was part of the EU, and she’s now a British citizen and planning to vote in the general election.

    It becomes clear her issue is illegal immigration. “I don't understand why France doesn't close the borders, why they let people risk their lives and cross the channel. If they say the first safe country is OK, why do you pass several safe countries and then England in the end. Why?”

    Does she see any conflict between her own journey and her views now? “I'm working. I'm all the time working,” she says, adding that she never asked the state for anything.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cw00yg9z0dgo

    Says something about BBC groupthink, all immigration is the same.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Tory gain at a Toronto by-election for the federal parliament.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Toronto—St._Paul%27s_federal_by-election
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited June 26
    Pulpstar said:
    Thanks for doing this job Pulpstar.

    The Economist has a seat by seat forecast, but not sure whether you can access the data other than by clicking on the map.
    https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/forecast

    Same with New Statesman. (I'm not a subscriber but I get the limited number of free articles by registering).
    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2024/05/britainpredicts

    ElectionMaps also has a forecast with map.
    https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862
    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    Of all the major sports, football is the most tedious.

    Except for cricket.
    You've obviously never watched a T20 then.
    Or indeed any other form of cricket.
    Even the ones that last FIVE fucking days??
    The whole point is if you like a game you want it to go on for as long as possible.
    The good thing about cricket is that you can go make a cup of tea, take a crap, wash the car, clear out the spare room, clean the entire house and mend that loose handle that’s been bothering you for months, and when you come back, absolutely nothing will have happened.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still confused by the Assange developments. Why did the US suddenly change its mind about him?

    Hopefully they were told, or realised, that they weren’t going to get him, and wanted to save face by getting him to plead guilty to something so that the whole sorry farce doesn’t just look pointless and vinidictive.

    And maybe Biden, or someone in his team, just wants to clear the deck of unhelpful loose ends, before the election?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,587
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still confused by the Assange developments. Why did the US suddenly change its mind about him?

    Hopefully they were told, or realised, that they weren’t going to get him, and wanted to save face by getting him to plead guilty to something so that the whole sorry farce doesn’t just look pointless and vinidictive.

    And maybe Biden, or someone in his team, just wants to clear the deck of unhelpful loose ends, before the election?
    Might an impending change of government in the UK have focussed their minds, especially with a prospective lawyerly PM who might be more sympathetic to Assange?

    (If SKS is sympathetic to Assange, then that's a black mark against SKS...)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still confused by the Assange developments. Why did the US suddenly change its mind about him?

    "Suddenly" is an odd term in the context of a plea deal.

    You need to be absolutely gung-ho about it until the moment the deal is sealed. You cannot say, "well, we think he's guilty of all sorts but may change our mind". You're either all in or all out.

    None of this is very surprising. It's all very old news, very expensive, and with some risk of failing to obtain a convictions. This way, they have a conviction, albeit limited, and the costs stop.
    Part of the deal was that Assange got Willian's to destroy the documents.

    Also five years 'time served' is not nothing.

    The deterrent effect is preserved fir all but the most determined leakers - who would be unlikely to be further deterred anyway, were Assange to have gone to trial.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    Of all the major sports, football is the most tedious.

    Except for cricket.
    You've obviously never watched a T20 then.
    Or indeed any other form of cricket.
    Even the ones that last FIVE fucking days??
    The whole point is if you like a game you want it to go on for as long as possible.
    The good thing about cricket is that you can go make a cup of tea, take a crap, wash the car, clear out the spare room, clean the entire house and mend that loose handle that’s been bothering you for months, and when you come back, absolutely nothing will have happened.
    Better still, you can listen to it on the radio at the same time.
    Cricket just works over radio; football doesn't.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    In addition to New York and South Carolina, also party primaries - but NOT for POTUS - in Colorado and Utah.

    In CO look for results from US House District 3 Republican primary, where one of the hopefuls is Lauren Boebert, an incumbent in Congress but NOT from this open-seat strongly GOP district on the OTHER side of the Rocky Mountains.

    A head full of rocks is on brand in a Rocky Mountain State.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Colorado Republican Primary 4th Congressional District
    61% reporting (source NYT) - AP has called race for Lauren Boebert

    Lauren Boebert
    37,455 43.8%
    Deborah Flora
    12,945 15.1%
    Mike Lynch
    10,159 11.9%
    Jerry Sonnenberg
    9,854 11.5%
    Richard Holtorf
    8,395 9.8%
    Peter Yu
    6,727 7.9%
    Total reported
    85,535

    Boebert won because opposition to her never coalesced around a single candidate.

    Sadly.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997

    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still confused by the Assange developments. Why did the US suddenly change its mind about him?

    Hopefully they were told, or realised, that they weren’t going to get him, and wanted to save face by getting him to plead guilty to something so that the whole sorry farce doesn’t just look pointless and vinidictive.

    And maybe Biden, or someone in his team, just wants to clear the deck of unhelpful loose ends, before the election?
    Might an impending change of government in the UK have focussed their minds, especially with a prospective lawyerly PM who might be more sympathetic to Assange?

    (If SKS is sympathetic to Assange, then that's a black mark against SKS...)
    Geoffrey Robertson KC, who mentored Sir Keir Starmer when he was a young barrister, told The Telegraph that American prosecutors knew they “couldn’t rely on” a Starmer administration to put Assange on a flight across the Atlantic.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/25/julian-assange-latest-wikileaks-uk-plea-deal/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    Former home secretary Suella Braverman has told the BBC she still has the 24-hour personal protection she was given while in government because of the threats and harassment she receives.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw00029vv9yo
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    It appears that Visegrád 24, a Polish-Based Account with over a Million Followers who posts about the War in Ukraine and Israel has been Suspended for an Unknown Reason.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1805791410018193414
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    It appears that Visegrád 24, a Polish-Based Account with over a Million Followers who posts about the War in Ukraine and Israel has been Suspended for an Unknown Reason.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1805791410018193414

    The account is restored, but has (temporarily ?) lost its followers.

    Possibly a false DMCA takedown.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Andy_JS said:

    Tory gain at a Toronto by-election for the federal parliament.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Toronto—St._Paul%27s_federal_by-election

    Do Canada not have a deposit requirement for candidates?

    That ballot paper is ludicrous.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still confused by the Assange developments. Why did the US suddenly change its mind about him?

    "Suddenly" is an odd term in the context of a plea deal.

    You need to be absolutely gung-ho about it until the moment the deal is sealed. You cannot say, "well, we think he's guilty of all sorts but may change our mind". You're either all in or all out.

    None of this is very surprising. It's all very old news, very expensive, and with some risk of failing to obtain a convictions. This way, they have a conviction, albeit limited, and the costs stop.
    Part of the deal was that Assange got Willian's to destroy the documents.

    Also five years 'time served' is not nothing.

    The deterrent effect is preserved fir all but the most determined leakers - who would be unlikely to be further deterred anyway, were Assange to have gone to trial.
    I hold no candle for Assange but I can't blame him for hiding away in that embassy.

    If he'd been extradited to a US court on all the charges he faced he'd have got something ludicrous like 300 years and spent the rest of his life in a very horrible US prison.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still confused by the Assange developments. Why did the US suddenly change its mind about him?

    "Suddenly" is an odd term in the context of a plea deal.

    You need to be absolutely gung-ho about it until the moment the deal is sealed. You cannot say, "well, we think he's guilty of all sorts but may change our mind". You're either all in or all out.

    None of this is very surprising. It's all very old news, very expensive, and with some risk of failing to obtain a convictions. This way, they have a conviction, albeit limited, and the costs stop.
    Part of the deal was that Assange got Willian's to destroy the documents.

    Also five years 'time served' is not nothing.

    The deterrent effect is preserved fir all but the most determined leakers - who would be unlikely to be further deterred anyway, were Assange to have gone to trial.
    I hold no candle for Assange but I can't blame him for hiding away in that embassy.

    If he'd been extradited to a US court on all the charges he faced he'd have got something ludicrous like 300 years and spent the rest of his life in a very horrible US prison.
    And had he been a U.S. citizen, it's fairly likely he'd have been able to assert 1st amendment rights as part of his defence, and possibly gig a similar plea deal.

    So it's not the worst all round compromise.

    I'm not an Assange fan either, but time to forget him and move on.
  • Wait. Jeremy is looking at retirement homes in Clacton. That's a strange choice. I wonder why?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    The judge said, “It appears your 62 months … was fair and reasonable and proportionate to [Chelsea] Manning’s actual prison time.”

    Also, as a convicted felon, he's barred from re-entering the US.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,657
    edited June 26
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still confused by the Assange developments. Why did the US suddenly change its mind about him?

    "Suddenly" is an odd term in the context of a plea deal.

    You need to be absolutely gung-ho about it until the moment the deal is sealed. You cannot say, "well, we think he's guilty of all sorts but may change our mind". You're either all in or all out.

    None of this is very surprising. It's all very old news, very expensive, and with some risk of failing to obtain a convictions. This way, they have a conviction, albeit limited, and the costs stop.
    Part of the deal was that Assange got Willian's to destroy the documents.

    Also five years 'time served' is not nothing.

    The deterrent effect is preserved fir all but the most determined leakers - who would be unlikely to be further deterred anyway, were Assange to have gone to trial.
    I hold no candle for Assange but I can't blame him for hiding away in that embassy.

    If he'd been extradited to a US court on all the charges he faced he'd have got something ludicrous like 300 years and spent the rest of his life in a very horrible US prison.
    And had he been a U.S. citizen, it's fairly likely he'd have been able to assert 1st amendment rights as part of his defence, and possibly gig a similar plea deal.

    So it's not the worst all round compromise.

    I'm not an Assange fan either, but time to forget him and move on.
    A typically grown up and sensible move from the Biden administration. Shame they won't get much credit for it come November..
  • Putin's catamite is at it again.

    Ukraine should agree to a peace deal with Russia or run the risk that every young Ukrainian man will be killed, Nigel Farage has said in an escalation of his views on the war.

    The Reform UK leader said that in the interests of peace, President Zelensky should rethink his ambition to reclaim all territory lost to President Putin’s invasion. Farage also launched a fresh attack on Boris Johnson for rejecting the prospect of a peace deal, which had resulted in countless deaths.

    Johnson has championed Britain’s support for Ukraine and remains close friends with Zelensky.

    Farage said greater efforts were needed to broker negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and that Britain and other western allies were being unrealistic in their support of Zelensky’s goal to drive the invading forces back into Russia.

    He said reclaiming Crimean territory was going to be “incredibly difficult”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-zelensky-should-seek-peace-or-risk-losing-every-young-ukrainian-man-gg5bp93nt

    Well hes shown hes a man of principle. Theres no electoral advantage to this but he keeps running with it. And hes right Russia has many more men than ukraine so can outlast them in a war of attrition.
    And if Trump wins he will cut the money and arms going to Ukraine. No doubt.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862
    Nigelb said:

    The judge said, “It appears your 62 months … was fair and reasonable and proportionate to [Chelsea] Manning’s actual prison time.”

    Also, as a convicted felon, he's barred from re-entering the US.

    Somehow I don’t think that will worry him greatly
  • The BBC will keep on about Gamblegate along with the rest of them till and after the election. It might do the reverse and bring out sympathetic Tory voters who will support their party. Anything is possible!
  • As I have said would this situation stop Labour voters voting for their party. I do not believe so.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078

    biggles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Putin's catamite is at it again.

    Ukraine should agree to a peace deal with Russia or run the risk that every young Ukrainian man will be killed, Nigel Farage has said in an escalation of his views on the war.

    The Reform UK leader said that in the interests of peace, President Zelensky should rethink his ambition to reclaim all territory lost to President Putin’s invasion. Farage also launched a fresh attack on Boris Johnson for rejecting the prospect of a peace deal, which had resulted in countless deaths.

    Johnson has championed Britain’s support for Ukraine and remains close friends with Zelensky.

    Farage said greater efforts were needed to broker negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and that Britain and other western allies were being unrealistic in their support of Zelensky’s goal to drive the invading forces back into Russia.

    He said reclaiming Crimean territory was going to be “incredibly difficult”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-zelensky-should-seek-peace-or-risk-losing-every-young-ukrainian-man-gg5bp93nt

    Surely, "Russia should withdraw from Ukraine or run the risk that every young Russian man will be killed".

    I mean the two are functionally identical, especially given that Russia is taking far worse casualties and their latest offensive has stalled.
    Farage is clearly just not bought in to the moral argument. And in that’s he’s at odds with the majority of Brits.
    The Ukrainians are making some progress in hitting Russian air defence systems and have the prospect of achieving some degree of air superiority when the F16s and Mirages arrive. No wonder Putin shills are pushing for "peace".
    Touched by Nige's concern for the welfare of the Ukrainians, though.
    Sadly its all about manpower and ukraine has less men.
    The Iraqi Army had more soldiers on the ground than the coalition forces. Its all about training and materiel, not to mention morale and leadership. On all those measures you have an explanation for the horrendous Russian casualties. The absolute contempt for their own soldiers and the general contempt for human life is why, ultimately, the Russians need to place their own high command and corrupt political leadership on trial.

    Only those bought and sold for Ruusian gold, and we know who they are, are prepared to throw Putin a bone. Your puny propaganda efforts cut no ice here.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078

    Putin's catamite is at it again.

    Ukraine should agree to a peace deal with Russia or run the risk that every young Ukrainian man will be killed, Nigel Farage has said in an escalation of his views on the war.

    The Reform UK leader said that in the interests of peace, President Zelensky should rethink his ambition to reclaim all territory lost to President Putin’s invasion. Farage also launched a fresh attack on Boris Johnson for rejecting the prospect of a peace deal, which had resulted in countless deaths.

    Johnson has championed Britain’s support for Ukraine and remains close friends with Zelensky.

    Farage said greater efforts were needed to broker negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and that Britain and other western allies were being unrealistic in their support of Zelensky’s goal to drive the invading forces back into Russia.

    He said reclaiming Crimean territory was going to be “incredibly difficult”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-zelensky-should-seek-peace-or-risk-losing-every-young-ukrainian-man-gg5bp93nt

    Well hes shown hes a man of principle. Theres no electoral advantage to this but he keeps running with it. And hes right Russia has many more men than ukraine so can outlast them in a war of attrition.
    Nigel Farage, the former presenter on Russia Today, is absolutely not a man of principle, Putinbot.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited June 26
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    Of all the major sports, football is the most tedious.

    Except for cricket.
    You've obviously never watched a T20 then.
    Or indeed any other form of cricket.
    Even the ones that last FIVE fucking days??
    The whole point is if you like a game you want it to go on for as long as possible.
    The good thing about cricket is that you can go make a cup of tea, take a crap, wash the car, clear out the spare room, clean the entire house and mend that loose handle that’s been bothering you for months, and when you come back, absolutely nothing will have happened.
    Like watching England men’s football team then

    p.s. Good morning all
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,587

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still confused by the Assange developments. Why did the US suddenly change its mind about him?

    "Suddenly" is an odd term in the context of a plea deal.

    You need to be absolutely gung-ho about it until the moment the deal is sealed. You cannot say, "well, we think he's guilty of all sorts but may change our mind". You're either all in or all out.

    None of this is very surprising. It's all very old news, very expensive, and with some risk of failing to obtain a convictions. This way, they have a conviction, albeit limited, and the costs stop.
    Part of the deal was that Assange got Willian's to destroy the documents.

    Also five years 'time served' is not nothing.

    The deterrent effect is preserved fir all but the most determined leakers - who would be unlikely to be further deterred anyway, were Assange to have gone to trial.
    I hold no candle for Assange but I can't blame him for hiding away in that embassy.

    If he'd been extradited to a US court on all the charges he faced he'd have got something ludicrous like 300 years and spent the rest of his life in a very horrible US prison.
    And he'd deserve it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still confused by the Assange developments. Why did the US suddenly change its mind about him?

    "Suddenly" is an odd term in the context of a plea deal.

    You need to be absolutely gung-ho about it until the moment the deal is sealed. You cannot say, "well, we think he's guilty of all sorts but may change our mind". You're either all in or all out.

    None of this is very surprising. It's all very old news, very expensive, and with some risk of failing to obtain a convictions. This way, they have a conviction, albeit limited, and the costs stop.
    Part of the deal was that Assange got Willian's to destroy the documents.

    Also five years 'time served' is not nothing.

    The deterrent effect is preserved fir all but the most determined leakers - who would be unlikely to be further deterred anyway, were Assange to have gone to trial.
    I hold no candle for Assange but I can't blame him for hiding away in that embassy.

    If he'd been extradited to a US court on all the charges he faced he'd have got something ludicrous like 300 years and spent the rest of his life in a very horrible US prison.
    A reminder that when he jumped bail, he was trying to avoid extradition to Sweden on rape charges. It wasn’t until some time after he’d fled that the US changed its mind and started pursuing him.

    Hilariously, had he been extradited to Sweden he would actually have been much safer from the US. Although he would almost certainly have been locked up for those rapes he committed, of course.
  • Farage is just working where he will get the best job offer from. If not in politics then Ukraine has over 10 Trillion of metals under the ground. He is a former metal trader. He may have contacts in that game. The world is your oyster.
  • I am sure many companies and wealthy individuals have their eyes on those minerals.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm still confused by the Assange developments. Why did the US suddenly change its mind about him?

    Because the Australian parliament and Prime Minister asked it to:
    https://apnews.com/article/australia-assange-motion-extradition-appeal-1b1d1a22501706f9df08cc8ed0da7c52

    The Biden administration generally tries to accommodate allies where they reasonably can.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,587

    Putin's catamite is at it again.

    Ukraine should agree to a peace deal with Russia or run the risk that every young Ukrainian man will be killed, Nigel Farage has said in an escalation of his views on the war.

    The Reform UK leader said that in the interests of peace, President Zelensky should rethink his ambition to reclaim all territory lost to President Putin’s invasion. Farage also launched a fresh attack on Boris Johnson for rejecting the prospect of a peace deal, which had resulted in countless deaths.

    Johnson has championed Britain’s support for Ukraine and remains close friends with Zelensky.

    Farage said greater efforts were needed to broker negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and that Britain and other western allies were being unrealistic in their support of Zelensky’s goal to drive the invading forces back into Russia.

    He said reclaiming Crimean territory was going to be “incredibly difficult”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/nigel-farage-zelensky-should-seek-peace-or-risk-losing-every-young-ukrainian-man-gg5bp93nt

    Well hes shown hes a man of principle. Theres no electoral advantage to this but he keeps running with it. And hes right Russia has many more men than ukraine so can outlast them in a war of attrition.
    That's not the way it works. A hundred years ago, the vast majority of Russia's workforce worked in agriculture; whilst this decreased to 50% in 1940, the sector still provided a vast supply of men for the war and factories. In addition, millions of eastern Europeans fought the nazis - including seven million Ukrainians.

    Russia now has a much more western-like economy. Just six percent of people work in agriculture, and all those high-tech stronky weapons Russia brags about need large numbers of highly-skilled people to produce. A T90=M is not a T-34.

    Russia may not run out of men; but it will critically damage its economy and further deepen its population crisis in the process. Especially as it only seems to advance by using human meat-wave attacks. And that's another point: if Russia loses six people for every one Ukraine loses, then Russia is shafted.
  • Ukraine is a money land grab. Simple. NATO expansion etc is not the main issue.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Morning all. I’m pretty sure that 5 points is the statistical minimum required to qualify top of a group of four teams.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited June 26
    BBC (Poorly) Verified on the case...

    The Conservatives are fighting a highly-defensive general election campaign, with Rishi Sunak visiting areas his party has won comfortably in the past, BBC analysis shows.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crggg30ngnyo

    Seems a surprising few visits to places from all leaders. I supposed D-Day, G7 etc has got in the way, but basically only 1 per day.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,153
    edited June 26
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    Of all the major sports, football is the most tedious.

    Except for cricket.
    You've obviously never watched a T20 then.
    Or indeed any other form of cricket.
    Even the ones that last FIVE fucking days??
    The whole point is if you like a game you want it to go on for as long as possible.
    The good thing about cricket is that you can go make a cup of tea, take a crap, wash the car, clear out the spare room, clean the entire house and mend that loose handle that’s been bothering you for months, and when you come back, absolutely nothing will have happened.
    You haven't seen my spare room or my house :smile: .

    The plan is clear out house and garden, but it'll take the year. Making progress, however.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited June 26
    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. I’m pretty sure that 5 points is the statistical minimum required to qualify top of a group of four teams.

    Surely 3 points. Everybody draws with everybody else in every match.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Starmer will be very annoyed that he can no longer use the betting issue as a stick to beat the Tories with . As soon as one Labour candidate was implicated admittedly for a different type of bet the public might view it as a plague on both houses .

    He will of course though highlight his swift action versus Sunaks obfuscation.

    I don’t see it making much difference to the polling.

  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806

    No more polls tonight presusumably. Anyone know please which we can expect tomorrow?

    Good to see you PfP, hope you are keeping well!

    What bets do you have for UK 2024?
    Thanks Double C ... your kind words are absolutely reciprocated on my part.
    I'm mainly on the spreads, selling the Blue team down from 160 seats and buying the reds up from 430 seats. Also a variety of fixed odds bets favouring large Labour majorities, etc.
    We haven't yet booked the Caribbean holiday yet but something rather better than a long weekend in Clacton is definitely in prospect!
    Where is your betting focused?
    Ah thanks PfP great to hear from you :smiley:

    Going to start betting this week hopefully, looking at Con seats >100, also very safe Con seats (eg 60%+ in 2019 vote) where there's a decent return eg 30-40%.

    That's my starting point.

    For all the other almost 40 or so countries that I follow, the UK election night is probably still genuinely my favourite.

    Good luck with your bets!
    If the polls currently have it right, then the betting value has ebbed away during the campaign, an example being that Tory seats on the spreads are down from around 160+ to the present level of circa 117 seats mid-spread. Of course there's still time for the Blue Team to have a late surge which has actually been the case in just about every G.E. over the last 30 years.

    Good luck with your POTUS betting DC. I'll be looking out for your predictions ... the first presumably whether Biden and/or Trump will actually be their respective parties' candidates?
    The idea that the Tories always have a late surge is one of politics enduring myths. Sure, they did in 1992, maybe 2029, Maybe also 2015, although that was more about the LibDem collapse. But not in 2017, or 2010, or 1997.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,153
    Good morning everyone.

    A Medias Touch video looking at the corrupt mess which the US Supreme Court judges have got themselves into, and its impact. A bit of a reprise of events some of which I have not followed all the time, with relatively little rhetoric. 20 minutes.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUxleQzmkMo
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    nico679 said:

    Starmer will be very annoyed that he can no longer use the betting issue as a stick to beat the Tories with . As soon as one Labour candidate was implicated admittedly for a different type of bet the public might view it as a plague on both houses .

    He will of course though highlight his swift action versus Sunaks obfuscation.

    I don’t see it making much difference to the polling.

    It didn't seem to have depressed the Tory vote any further in the latest polls. I suppose repeated scandals have a diminishing effect. Maybe they really are down to their core vote now. Though it has probably made a "late surge" even less likely.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Nigelb said:

    It appears that Visegrád 24, a Polish-Based Account with over a Million Followers who posts about the War in Ukraine and Israel has been Suspended for an Unknown Reason.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1805791410018193414

    The account is restored, but has (temporarily ?) lost its followers.

    Possibly a false DMCA takedown.
    There’s a big row going on in the US at the moment with regard to the CNN debate tomorrow night.

    CNN have pre-emptively written to Google asserting copyright on the broadcast, threatening to persue any Youtube commentators who are running comment or fact-check follow-along streams.

    Note that this isn’t just re-broadcasting the stream, which would be a DCMA violation, but adding commentary and criticism to it, which is considered fair use under the 1st Amendment.

    Fox News tried something similar a couple of years ago after the fact, getting commentary streams taken down afterwards, but backed down when the content producers threated to sue them.

    One such commentator has now gone to the considerable effort of intending to stream his show simultaneouly on YouTube, Rumble, and Twitter.

    The issue with Youtube is that their automated DCMA process will kill the stream first and ask questions later.

    Twitter have pre-emptively said this is definitely fair use, and they won’t be taking action against anyone running commentary on the debate.

    https://x.com/timcast/status/1805383637564616917?s=12
    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1805402421595648220?s=12
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited June 26
    Chris said:

    nico679 said:

    Starmer will be very annoyed that he can no longer use the betting issue as a stick to beat the Tories with . As soon as one Labour candidate was implicated admittedly for a different type of bet the public might view it as a plague on both houses .

    He will of course though highlight his swift action versus Sunaks obfuscation.

    I don’t see it making much difference to the polling.

    It didn't seem to have depressed the Tory vote any further in the latest polls. I suppose repeated scandals have a diminishing effect. Maybe they really are down to their core vote now. Though it has probably made a "late surge" even less likely.
    The Tories have already smashed through the bedrock of their core support ages ago. 30% is always considered the foundation of both Tory and Labour support, and of course we are now seeing polling with Tories sub 20%. They are down to the true blue of the true blue if the polling is to be believed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. I’m pretty sure that 5 points is the statistical minimum required to qualify top of a group of four teams.

    Surely 3 points. Everybody draws with everybody else in every match.
    Then no-one would be top, there would be lots drawn.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited June 26
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    It appears that Visegrád 24, a Polish-Based Account with over a Million Followers who posts about the War in Ukraine and Israel has been Suspended for an Unknown Reason.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1805791410018193414

    The account is restored, but has (temporarily ?) lost its followers.

    Possibly a false DMCA takedown.
    There’s a big row going on in the US at the moment with regard to the CNN debate tomorrow night.

    CNN have pre-emptively written to Google asserting copyright on the broadcast, threatening to persue any Youtube commentators who are running comment or fact-check follow-along streams.

    Note that this isn’t just re-broadcasting the stream, which would be a DCMA violation, but adding commentary and criticism to it, which is considered fair use under the 1st Amendment.

    Fox News tried something similar a couple of years ago after the fact, getting commentary streams taken down afterwards, but backed down when the content producers threated to sue them.

    One such commentator has now gone to the considerable effort of intending to stream his show simultaneouly on YouTube, Rumble, and Twitter.

    The issue with Youtube is that their automated DCMA process will kill the stream first and ask questions later.

    Twitter have pre-emptively said this is definitely fair use, and they won’t be taking action against anyone running commentary on the debate.

    https://x.com/timcast/status/1805383637564616917?s=12
    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1805402421595648220?s=12
    How can CNN claim that a load of talking heads debating the debate images isn't transformative?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    nico679 said:

    Starmer will be very annoyed that he can no longer use the betting issue as a stick to beat the Tories with . As soon as one Labour candidate was implicated admittedly for a different type of bet the public might view it as a plague on both houses .

    He will of course though highlight his swift action versus Sunaks obfuscation.

    I don’t see it making much difference to the polling.

    I still don’t understand why the Gambling Commission thought it to be in any way reasonable, to be giving a daily running commentary on this for a fortnight during the election campaign?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,523
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. I’m pretty sure that 5 points is the statistical minimum required to qualify top of a group of four teams.

    Surely 3 points. Everybody draws with everybody else in every match.
    Then no-one would be top, there would be lots drawn.
    No because after goal difference, they use goals scored as a further differentiator so teams that were part of a 1-1 draw would be placed higher than those from a 0-0 draw. And of course since that would not separate the top two teams they then use yellow and red cards as the final differentiator. The team with the fewer cards being placed higher.

    That is how Denmark have qualified above Slovenia.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited June 26

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    It appears that Visegrád 24, a Polish-Based Account with over a Million Followers who posts about the War in Ukraine and Israel has been Suspended for an Unknown Reason.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1805791410018193414

    The account is restored, but has (temporarily ?) lost its followers.

    Possibly a false DMCA takedown.
    There’s a big row going on in the US at the moment with regard to the CNN debate tomorrow night.

    CNN have pre-emptively written to Google asserting copyright on the broadcast, threatening to persue any Youtube commentators who are running comment or fact-check follow-along streams.

    Note that this isn’t just re-broadcasting the stream, which would be a DCMA violation, but adding commentary and criticism to it, which is considered fair use under the 1st Amendment.

    Fox News tried something similar a couple of years ago after the fact, getting commentary streams taken down afterwards, but backed down when the content producers threated to sue them.

    One such commentator has now gone to the considerable effort of intending to stream his show simultaneouly on YouTube, Rumble, and Twitter.

    The issue with Youtube is that their automated DCMA process will kill the stream first and ask questions later.

    Twitter have pre-emptively said this is definitely fair use, and they won’t be taking action against anyone running commentary on the debate.

    https://x.com/timcast/status/1805383637564616917?s=12
    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1805402421595648220?s=12
    How can CNN claim that a load of talking heads debating the debate images isn't transformative?
    Because they can, and because they thought they’d get away with it. If they file a load of automated DCMA requests to Youtube during the event, then all the streams will automatically get nixed and everyone can argue about it the next day.

    Timcast’s regular daily news commentary podcast gets around 40k live viewers and 300k replays on Youtube, and he’s expecting at least 100k following live tomorrow night, you can see why he’s kicking up a stink about it!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited June 26

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Morning all. I’m pretty sure that 5 points is the statistical minimum required to qualify top of a group of four teams.

    Surely 3 points. Everybody draws with everybody else in every match.
    Then no-one would be top, there would be lots drawn.
    No because after goal difference, they use goals scored as a further differentiator so teams that were part of a 1-1 draw would be placed higher than those from a 0-0 draw. And of course since that would not separate the top two teams they then use yellow and red cards as the final differentiator. The team with the fewer cards being placed higher.

    That is how Denmark have qualified above Slovenia.
    You can also have a situation where every team wins once and loses twice. So again everybody ends up with 3 points, but there will then be more likely distinct goal differences / total goal scored.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    It appears that Visegrád 24, a Polish-Based Account with over a Million Followers who posts about the War in Ukraine and Israel has been Suspended for an Unknown Reason.

    https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1805791410018193414

    The account is restored, but has (temporarily ?) lost its followers.

    Possibly a false DMCA takedown.
    There’s a big row going on in the US at the moment with regard to the CNN debate tomorrow night.

    CNN have pre-emptively written to Google asserting copyright on the broadcast, threatening to persue any Youtube commentators who are running comment or fact-check follow-along streams.

    Note that this isn’t just re-broadcasting the stream, which would be a DCMA violation, but adding commentary and criticism to it, which is considered fair use under the 1st Amendment.

    Fox News tried something similar a couple of years ago after the fact, getting commentary streams taken down afterwards, but backed down when the content producers threated to sue them.

    One such commentator has now gone to the considerable effort of intending to stream his show simultaneouly on YouTube, Rumble, and Twitter.

    The issue with Youtube is that their automated DCMA process will kill the stream first and ask questions later.

    Twitter have pre-emptively said this is definitely fair use, and they won’t be taking action against anyone running commentary on the debate.

    https://x.com/timcast/status/1805383637564616917?s=12
    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1805402421595648220?s=12
    How can CNN claim that a load of talking heads debating the debate images isn't transformative?
    Because they can, and because they thought they’d get away with it. If they file a load of automated DCMA requests to Youtube during the event, then all the streams will automatically get nixed and everyone can argue about it the next day.

    Timcast’s regular daily news commentary podcast gets around 40k live viewers and 300k replays, and he’s expecting at least 100k following live tomorrow night, you can see why he’s kicking up a stink about it!
    Its why legacy news media is dying.
This discussion has been closed.