On the topic of safe(ish) Tory seats, can I present South West Wiltshire? Current incumbent Andrew Murrison (a decent enough chap). Labour is the closest challenger but for some reason have selected a Londoner who doesn't live anywhere near Wiltshire to be their candidate. And she is also a person of colour.
I'm not implying that the constituency is full of white power racists, far from it, but it certainly is a much less diverse part of the country than almost anywhere else.
FWIW This betting scandal is cutting through in my drug addled cycling/climbing community.
No one gives a shit but they basically think it's pathetic that a bunch of rich Tories were insider trading on the election date. The main issue is they know I place political bets and think I'm a mug for trying to outwit these people.
Cabinet ministers say that huge polls showing Tories are on course for wipeout are beyond their ‘wildest nightmares’
‘The country has made a fundamental decision overall. Anything that is said about tax or anything else is ignored.
‘There is no way of sorting this. You don’t give up locally. But there is no quick fix to this. I hope I can stick to the Nytol and not reach for the Valium’
Tory director of campaigning being looked into over election bet
The BBC can reveal that the Conservative Party’s Director of Campaigning Tony Lee is also being looked into by the Gambling Commission over an alleged bet relating to the timing of the general election.
The BBC reported earlier this morning that Mr Lee – who, we understand, took a leave of absence from his job yesterday afternoon – is married to the Conservative candidate who is also being looked into by the betting industry regulator. Laura Saunders, the party’s candidate in Bristol North West has worked for the Tories since 2015.
She is married to Lee. It is not known when the bet she placed was made or for how much money. Nor is it known when Lee placed a bet and for how much money. Laura Saunders and Tony Lee has been approached for comment by the BBC and have not replied. A Conservative Party spokesman told the BBC: “We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals. As the Gambling Commission is an independent body, it wouldn’t be proper to comment further, until any process is concluded.”
These are not the actions of a party that deserves to continue existing.
They couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.
Reminds me of one of the most gloriously offensive TTOI lines, from Jamie I think - "You're about as secure as a hymen in a South London comprehensive"
2nd bit of feedback from Wantage and Didcot ( @Andy_Cooke and @NickPalmer ). Again another member of the campaign I am involved in who are non political but very interested in who gets elected for obvious reasons. The current Tory MP has been a champion for our cause.
"I have had campaign leaflets from Labour and the SDP, plus several leaflets from the Liberal Democrats.
The Liberal Democrats are making quite in effort in Wantage, and seem to regard this as one of their target seats."
Thanks, kjh - always useful to get the feel of whether or not we're cutting through.
In the past fortnight we have driven into Chichester from three different routes. Along each route we saw dozens and dozens of Lib Dem posters. I think I might have spotted one Conservative one.
Today in a very upmarket part of Emsworth I saw two Labour Party posters.
The Lib Dems have flattered to deceive at every general election in my memory, but if they were to win Tewkesbury then this election would break that sequence.
I think the Reform surge in the polling indicates a rootless electorate, willing to be persuaded to vote for any one of a range of parties, but not yet particularly convinced by any.
I expect Labour to poll well north of 10% here, despite not trying, and for the Tory to be saved as a consequence.
The incumbent Tory, Laurence Robertson, has a part-time job on the Betting and Gaming Council, so, one never knows, he might be a lurker here.
They didn't flatter to deceive in 97 so I assume you are just a mere whippersnapper @LostPassword. As the winning results were coming in several of us seasoned campaigners were going 'Where the ..... is that?'
1997 was the first election where I watched the results, in 1992 I only observed the glum reactions of the adults the day after. So I suppose it forms the baseline against which I judge all subsequent elections, as I didn't have any expectations for 1997 itself.
Astonishing news that the CCHQ director of campaigns has now taken a leave of absence while his wife - a Con candidate - is being investigated for placing a bet on the date of the election.
It encapsulates both the incompetence and corruption at the heart of this sorry government (or indeed their contempt for democracy). This is the sort of thing that can cut through as well. They deserve the kicking that is hopefully coming to them.
I may be in the minority, but is it not possible that those who had a tip about the election genuinely thought there was nothing wrong in using said tip for a wager? I know ignorance of the law (is this is legal thing, or terms and conditions with the betting firm?) is not a defence.
There also seems to be a grey area. I placed bets on the day that things were leaking out, but before the official announcement. Was that illegal?
Cathedral (well OK, abbey): check Orchards, Vineyards or Cattle: check Rugby clubs: check Steep hills: sort of...in the distance Fuck off great big yellow diamond signboards: check
Great checklist - pretty much explains the liberal anomaly of NE Fife. Liberalism survives in those parts of the country left broadly unchanged by the industrial revolution.
The LDs were also second in Chelsea and Fulham in 2019 and Cities of London and Westminster and do well in spa towns, holding Bath and with Tunbridge Wells, Cheltenham and Harrogate and Knaresborough on their target list.
Basically along with having a Waitrose and Gales, having a LD MP or the LDs second to the Tories at the last general election is a good indicator of poshness
Yes, it's a peculiar thing that the LDs do well in Spa towns.
Something in the water?
Indeed, Barnes ... close to my neck, is probably the nearest the folk around here there could get to 'Baths'.
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
FWIW This betting scandal is cutting through in my drug addled cycling/climbing community.
No one gives a shit but they basically think it's pathetic that a bunch of rich Tories were insider trading on the election date. The main issue is they know I place political bets and think I'm a mug for trying to outwit these people.
They aren't wrong.
It's not "insider trading" (It would be if it was placed with SPIN mind) and there'll always be those with insider information regarding bets. I'd be amazed if the CPS prosecute and even more amazed if there's any convictions (The PO may well be reassigned though). That said it is I agree a terrible look.
Scoop: The US is set to halt all open orders for Patriot air defence systems & interceptor missiles until Ukraine has enough to defend itself from Russia’s air attacks. 3 people with knowledge of the decision said the move would be announced today. https://ft.com/content/89fe9d6b-3a0f-42a5-af50-cff7f457a126
Edited: so we'll just get it from Saudi Arabia instead. Obviously way better for the planet that way.
The Supreme Court in the UK have become very activist.
The Supreme Court judges did not rule that Surrey County Council should reject the proposal for new oil wells but that it should have considered the downstream emissions.
This is precisely the sort of ruling that means any sort of large infrastructure project costs at least £50 Billion more than it should.
We are fucked. The Superme Court was a terrible idea and the Judicial Appointments Commission means we have politicised judges whether we like it or not. And mostly leftwing judges: it's yet another hideous and deliberate legacy from New Labour, which the Tories failed to fix, and they had FOURTEEN YEARS to do it
The Tories must die, Reform or Whoever must take over, and when we get our next chance we basically need a revolution, to sweep the entire blob into the North Sea, judges as well
FWIW This betting scandal is cutting through in my drug addled cycling/climbing community.
No one gives a shit but they basically think it's pathetic that a bunch of rich Tories were insider trading on the election date. The main issue is they know I place political bets and think I'm a mug for trying to outwit these people.
They aren't wrong.
It's not "insider trading" (It would be if it was placed with SPIN mind) and there'll always be those with insider information regarding bets. I'd be amazed if the CPS prosecute and even more amazed if there's any convictions (The PO may well be reassigned though). That said it is I agree a terrible look.
I'm afraid it is to 98% of the population. These folks can't tell the difference between an ISA and an ice cream.
How is it possible for major reform of CCHQ? They aren’t exactly likely to sack themselves for being blindingly incompetent for a long time.
I don’t know how they are structured but is there a way a coup can happen and dump out the idiots who have been running things and appointing or selecting jokers who are haunting the party now?
Everything from staffing to candidate selection (Mayor of London mess) seems to be a terrible joke and for all Rishi’s deficiencies it’s not helped by a dysfunctional political operation behind him or whoever takes over.
Astonishing news that the CCHQ director of campaigns has now taken a leave of absence while his wife - a Con candidate - is being investigated for placing a bet on the date of the election.
It encapsulates both the incompetence and corruption at the heart of this sorry government (or indeed their contempt for democracy). This is the sort of thing that can cut through as well. They deserve the kicking that is hopefully coming to them.
I may be in the minority, but is it not possible that those who had a tip about the election genuinely thought there was nothing wrong in using said tip for a wager? I know ignorance of the law (is this is legal thing, or terms and conditions with the betting firm?) is not a defence.
There also seems to be a grey area. I placed bets on the day that things were leaking out, but before the official announcement. Was that illegal?
This is politics. Legally (betting law isn't my thing) it might not be a problem. To the untrained eye, including that of this lawyer, it is.
Right now it is a very confused picture as to whether the Tories are ahead of Reform or vice versa.
This comes at a point where millions of postal votes will be being cast by a section of the electorate that leans heavily towards elderly Tory/Reform voters. Most of these votes will have been cast before it becomes clear who is the stronger in many seats.
The worst situation for the right is a relatively even split between Tory and Reform and that appears to be where we are right now. The right needs one or the other to become clearly dominant in the next week or so if it is going to derail a Labour super majority.
My best case scenario is that the vote shares of both the Tories and Reform are just so inefficiently distributed across parliamentary seats that it fucks them both. Lets say both of them get between 15% - 20% nationally, under FPTP, we could actually see neither party winning any seats. Is that likely, of course not, but it would be hilarious.
Except of course it would mean Leon winning his bet and we would literally never hear the end of it.
Astonishing news that the CCHQ director of campaigns has now taken a leave of absence while his wife - a Con candidate - is being investigated for placing a bet on the date of the election.
It encapsulates both the incompetence and corruption at the heart of this sorry government (or indeed their contempt for democracy). This is the sort of thing that can cut through as well. They deserve the kicking that is hopefully coming to them.
I may be in the minority, but is it not possible that those who had a tip about the election genuinely thought there was nothing wrong in using said tip for a wager? I know ignorance of the law (is this is legal thing, or terms and conditions with the betting firm?) is not a defence.
There also seems to be a grey area. I placed bets on the day that things were leaking out, but before the official announcement. Was that illegal?
This is politics. Legally (betting law isn't my thing) it might not be a problem. To the untrained eye, including that of this lawyer, it is.
It's also probably not a great way to endear yourselves to the betting companies who, via the various MRPs being picked up by every barchart-toting leaflet from Aberdeenshire North & Moray East to St Ives, are having an outsize impact on this election.
Astonishing news that the CCHQ director of campaigns has now taken a leave of absence while his wife - a Con candidate - is being investigated for placing a bet on the date of the election.
It encapsulates both the incompetence and corruption at the heart of this sorry government (or indeed their contempt for democracy). This is the sort of thing that can cut through as well. They deserve the kicking that is hopefully coming to them.
I may be in the minority, but is it not possible that those who had a tip about the election genuinely thought there was nothing wrong in using said tip for a wager? I know ignorance of the law (is this is legal thing, or terms and conditions with the betting firm?) is not a defence.
There also seems to be a grey area. I placed bets on the day that things were leaking out, but before the official announcement. Was that illegal?
This is politics. Legally (betting law isn't my thing) it might not be a problem. To the untrained eye, including that of this lawyer, it is.
The BBC news push notification includes words like "investigation" and "commission". That's enough.
The swingback phenomenon is long standing and well documented. It seems particularly to benefit Conservatives, but we also saw some evidence of it when Labour were in power.
The idea is that ahead of an election people flirt with change and sending a message to the government. They’re fed up. But when the actual election day looms they consider their options and opt for the devil they know. So you get swingback to the incumbent.
This year lots of people are flirting with change. In fact the vast majority of the electorate, both in E&W and Scotland. But they are not just looking at Labour and the Lib Dems, the “established opposition parties”. They’re also looking at Reform and Green.
Over the next two weeks will people start to focus their minds and end up voting more conservatively? Yes, I think they will. It usually happens. But will the beneficiaries in England and Wales be the Tories? Perhaps not exclusively. Starmer and Labour are so much part of the furniture, and what they offer is so non-alarming and dull, that I wonder if they could be the main beneficiaries. A safe option, while still representing change.
Swingback, but to the main opposition party.
Just a thought.
Not a ridiculous idea, but on the whole I disagree.
Labour are still an unknown quantity. The small c conservative reflex will be to stick with the incumbent government.
And this is definitely a CHANGE election, but one where Labour aren't offering much in the way of change. That's why Reform are catching so much attention.
Labour are stuck between two stools. I think their campaign is in real trouble. They really need to come out and rally an anti-Farage vote, but they also need to offer a positive and optimistic vision for people to vote for. But it's too late for Starmer to pull that out of the hat. He doesn't do improv, I don't think he does optimism. It was seen as too risky when they drew up the campaign plan.
Polling day can't come quickly enough for Starmer, he's holding the ming vase on a tightrope right now.
I mean, yes. Labour would love an election tomorrow (as at any moment since Sept 2022) but Labour's campaign thus far has gone...pretty much according to plan.
In that they've largely been able to be unobtrusive and what scrutiny they have had over plans has been largely neutered by the Tories' errors. Starmer's personal ratings have modestly ticked up, so have avoided gaffes while introducing him to a wider public.
Polling has maybe ticked down a bit, but not more than might've been expected and still well past the winning post.
Reform and Farage has been a bit of a wildcard but one that's not really Labour's problem (at this election at least) and is maybe even helpful in splitting the right and sucking the oxygen away from everything else.
There were some rows with the left that were ugly, but have largely fizzled out rather than split the party.
It's not spectacular or pretty, but then winning election campaigns rarely are - as they're not aimed at those who have a strong interest in politics.
I know with my record I'm the last person who should be giving tips but I had a text from a good friend who lives in Islington who tells me she thinks Jeremy is going to lose. The reason I took note is because she was a fan and if she's now going mainstream Labour then I can't think who isn't
Edited: so we'll just get it from Saudi Arabia instead. Obviously way better for the planet that way.
The Supreme Court in the UK have become very activist.
The Supreme Court judges did not rule that Surrey County Council should reject the proposal for new oil wells but that it should have considered the downstream emissions.
This is precisely the sort of ruling that means any sort of large infrastructure project costs at least £50 Billion more than it should.
This is because governments of both sides have had an obsession with writing policy into law. It's not the fault of the courts when they then enforce this law.
I've always opposed this. I prefer to see practical policy to achieve the desired end - i.e. investment in zero carbon alternatives - rather than creating a law and calling it job done.
Right now it is a very confused picture as to whether the Tories are ahead of Reform or vice versa.
This comes at a point where millions of postal votes will be being cast by a section of the electorate that leans heavily towards elderly Tory/Reform voters. Most of these votes will have been cast before it becomes clear who is the stronger in many seats.
The worst situation for the right is a relatively even split between Tory and Reform and that appears to be where we are right now. The right needs one or the other to become clearly dominant in the next week or so if it is going to derail a Labour super majority.
My best case scenario is that the vote shares of both the Tories and Reform are just so inefficiently distributed across parliamentary seats that it fucks them both. Lets say both of them get between 15% - 20% nationally, under FPTP, we could actually see neither party winning any seats. Is that likely, of course not, but it would be hilarious.
Except of course it would mean Leon winning his bet and we would literally never hear the end of it.
No, if I win - as now seems likely - my 1000/1 bet with @Sandpit I hereby promise to stop talking about it daily by the summer of 2029
Edited: so we'll just get it from Saudi Arabia instead. Obviously way better for the planet that way.
The Supreme Court in the UK have become very activist.
The Supreme Court judges did not rule that Surrey County Council should reject the proposal for new oil wells but that it should have considered the downstream emissions.
This is precisely the sort of ruling that means any sort of large infrastructure project costs at least £50 Billion more than it should.
We are fucked. The Superme Court was a terrible idea and the Judicial Appointments Commission means we have politicised judges whether we like it or not. And mostly leftwing judges: it's yet another hideous and deliberate legacy from New Labour, which the Tories failed to fix, and they had FOURTEEN YEARS to do it
The Tories must die, Reform or Whoever must take over, and when we get our next chance we basically need a revolution, to sweep the entire blob into the North Sea, judges as well
They're certainly cut from a different cloth than Lord Denning or even more recently Sumption.
Astonishing news that the CCHQ director of campaigns has now taken a leave of absence while his wife - a Con candidate - is being investigated for placing a bet on the date of the election.
It encapsulates both the incompetence and corruption at the heart of this sorry government (or indeed their contempt for democracy). This is the sort of thing that can cut through as well. They deserve the kicking that is hopefully coming to them.
I may be in the minority, but is it not possible that those who had a tip about the election genuinely thought there was nothing wrong in using said tip for a wager? I know ignorance of the law (is this is legal thing, or terms and conditions with the betting firm?) is not a defence.
There also seems to be a grey area. I placed bets on the day that things were leaking out, but before the official announcement. Was that illegal?
This is politics. Legally (betting law isn't my thing) it might not be a problem. To the untrained eye, including that of this lawyer, it is.
I think it's a stupid thing to do for sure, but I'm curious to see where this goes legally. Personally, I think bookies lay odds on these things at their own risk.
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
I always have been loyal to David Cameron even when he said he liked Hawaiian pizzas.
In fact I have been more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife.
If Dave wasn’t in government I would be abstaining.
The swingback phenomenon is long standing and well documented. It seems particularly to benefit Conservatives, but we also saw some evidence of it when Labour were in power.
The idea is that ahead of an election people flirt with change and sending a message to the government. They’re fed up. But when the actual election day looms they consider their options and opt for the devil they know. So you get swingback to the incumbent.
This year lots of people are flirting with change. In fact the vast majority of the electorate, both in E&W and Scotland. But they are not just looking at Labour and the Lib Dems, the “established opposition parties”. They’re also looking at Reform and Green.
Over the next two weeks will people start to focus their minds and end up voting more conservatively? Yes, I think they will. It usually happens. But will the beneficiaries in England and Wales be the Tories? Perhaps not exclusively. Starmer and Labour are so much part of the furniture, and what they offer is so non-alarming and dull, that I wonder if they could be the main beneficiaries. A safe option, while still representing change.
Swingback, but to the main opposition party.
Just a thought.
Not a ridiculous idea, but on the whole I disagree.
Labour are still an unknown quantity. The small c conservative reflex will be to stick with the incumbent government.
And this is definitely a CHANGE election, but one where Labour aren't offering much in the way of change. That's why Reform are catching so much attention.
Labour are stuck between two stools. I think their campaign is in real trouble. They really need to come out and rally an anti-Farage vote, but they also need to offer a positive and optimistic vision for people to vote for. But it's too late for Starmer to pull that out of the hat. He doesn't do improv, I don't think he does optimism. It was seen as too risky when they drew up the campaign plan.
I don't know - I think I agree with @TimS - it seems clear that even many typically Tory voters are exasperated with the party and how it has governed, and I am worried about the polling day cold feet of many typically Labour voters who may be flirting with Greens (from my pov) worrying a "Vote for Greens is a Vote for Tories" and will get squeezed. I think there is a good argument being made here that Labour are so clearly going to get a majority and the Tories are in such trouble that in this election you don't have to necessarily vote tactically to kick out a Tory government - but with those numbers around how many voters want the Tories to get 0 seats, and how I'm sure some constituents with certain MPs have added desires to kick them out in a cross party manner, I do wonder if Labour could even exceed the polls. But we'll have to see!
The small c conservative swingback could see the Tories recover from 8% to 12% (although my prediction is for higher than that). The existence of a swingback doesn't preclude a wipeout for the Tories, depending on the point at which the swingback starts.
It would be more newsworthy if a politician wasn't.
Well yes, but she is meant to be the Head Haggis but one, a chieftain of finance, yet what she was saying had little to connect it to the world she lives in.
Alan, she could not have been any worse than tweedledee and tweedledum. How is it possible so many clowns get to these positions, I have yet to hear one that I would trust to run a bath.
Edited: so we'll just get it from Saudi Arabia instead. Obviously way better for the planet that way.
The Supreme Court in the UK have become very activist.
The Supreme Court judges did not rule that Surrey County Council should reject the proposal for new oil wells but that it should have considered the downstream emissions.
This is precisely the sort of ruling that means any sort of large infrastructure project costs at least £50 Billion more than it should.
We are fucked. The Superme Court was a terrible idea and the Judicial Appointments Commission means we have politicised judges whether we like it or not. And mostly leftwing judges: it's yet another hideous and deliberate legacy from New Labour, which the Tories failed to fix, and they had FOURTEEN YEARS to do it
The Tories must die, Reform or Whoever must take over, and when we get our next chance we basically need a revolution, to sweep the entire blob into the North Sea, judges as well
You really are quite dim aren't you? The HoL can and did make similar decisions before Labour rebadged it at the Supreme Court. Administrative law did not begin in 2009.
As for "judges as well" - how do you expect us to believe your protestations of "not fascist" when you decide that the judiciary is an inconvenience? The legislature next no doubt.
You really are beneath me. Reading you drops the average IQ 40 points. Being you must send it into negative territory. I don't know why I bother trying to educate you. Shut up and listen to your betters on here and you might learn something.
Right now it is a very confused picture as to whether the Tories are ahead of Reform or vice versa.
This comes at a point where millions of postal votes will be being cast by a section of the electorate that leans heavily towards elderly Tory/Reform voters. Most of these votes will have been cast before it becomes clear who is the stronger in many seats.
The worst situation for the right is a relatively even split between Tory and Reform and that appears to be where we are right now. The right needs one or the other to become clearly dominant in the next week or so if it is going to derail a Labour super majority.
My best case scenario is that the vote shares of both the Tories and Reform are just so inefficiently distributed across parliamentary seats that it fucks them both. Lets say both of them get between 15% - 20% nationally, under FPTP, we could actually see neither party winning any seats. Is that likely, of course not, but it would be hilarious.
Except of course it would mean Leon winning his bet and we would literally never hear the end of it.
Personally, that's a price I'm willing to pay. Because it's not coming out of my wallet and I can continue to ignore everything that Leon types.
Edited: so we'll just get it from Saudi Arabia instead. Obviously way better for the planet that way.
The Supreme Court in the UK have become very activist.
The Supreme Court judges did not rule that Surrey County Council should reject the proposal for new oil wells but that it should have considered the downstream emissions.
This is precisely the sort of ruling that means any sort of large infrastructure project costs at least £50 Billion more than it should.
We are fucked. The Superme Court was a terrible idea and the Judicial Appointments Commission means we have politicised judges whether we like it or not. And mostly leftwing judges: it's yet another hideous and deliberate legacy from New Labour, which the Tories failed to fix, and they had FOURTEEN YEARS to do it
The Tories must die, Reform or Whoever must take over, and when we get our next chance we basically need a revolution, to sweep the entire blob into the North Sea, judges as well
You really are quite dim aren't you? The HoL can and did make similar decisions before Labour rebadged it at the Supreme Court. Administrative law did not begin in 2009.
As for "judges as well" - how do you expect us to believe your protestations of "not fascist" when you decide that the judiciary is an inconvenience? The legislature next no doubt.
You really are beneath me. Reading you drops the average IQ 40 points. Being you must send it into negative territory. I don't know why I bother trying to educate you. Shut up and listen to your betters on here and you might learn something.
In the past fortnight we have driven into Chichester from three different routes. Along each route we saw dozens and dozens of Lib Dem posters. I think I might have spotted one Conservative one.
Today in a very upmarket part of Emsworth I saw two Labour Party posters.
The tide is turning...
Tories stopped putting posters up about 20 years ago because they became magnets for vandalism.
Edited: so we'll just get it from Saudi Arabia instead. Obviously way better for the planet that way.
The Supreme Court in the UK have become very activist.
The Supreme Court judges did not rule that Surrey County Council should reject the proposal for new oil wells but that it should have considered the downstream emissions.
This is precisely the sort of ruling that means any sort of large infrastructure project costs at least £50 Billion more than it should.
It means we will import 100% of our oil and gas
Another reason why the Tories deserve #zeroseats is because they didn't get rid of this Supreme Court
Edited: so we'll just get it from Saudi Arabia instead. Obviously way better for the planet that way.
The Supreme Court in the UK have become very activist.
The Supreme Court judges did not rule that Surrey County Council should reject the proposal for new oil wells but that it should have considered the downstream emissions.
This is precisely the sort of ruling that means any sort of large infrastructure project costs at least £50 Billion more than it should.
We are fucked. The Superme Court was a terrible idea and the Judicial Appointments Commission means we have politicised judges whether we like it or not. And mostly leftwing judges: it's yet another hideous and deliberate legacy from New Labour, which the Tories failed to fix, and they had FOURTEEN YEARS to do it
The Tories must die, Reform or Whoever must take over, and when we get our next chance we basically need a revolution, to sweep the entire blob into the North Sea, judges as well
You really are quite dim aren't you? The HoL can and did make similar decisions before Labour rebadged it at the Supreme Court. Administrative law did not begin in 2009.
As for "judges as well" - how do you expect us to believe your protestations of "not fascist" when you decide that the judiciary is an inconvenience? The legislature next no doubt.
You really are beneath me. Reading you drops the average IQ 40 points. Being you must send it into negative territory. I don't know why I bother trying to educate you. Shut up and listen to your betters on here and you might learn something.
The swingback phenomenon is long standing and well documented. It seems particularly to benefit Conservatives, but we also saw some evidence of it when Labour were in power.
The idea is that ahead of an election people flirt with change and sending a message to the government. They’re fed up. But when the actual election day looms they consider their options and opt for the devil they know. So you get swingback to the incumbent.
This year lots of people are flirting with change. In fact the vast majority of the electorate, both in E&W and Scotland. But they are not just looking at Labour and the Lib Dems, the “established opposition parties”. They’re also looking at Reform and Green.
Over the next two weeks will people start to focus their minds and end up voting more conservatively? Yes, I think they will. It usually happens. But will the beneficiaries in England and Wales be the Tories? Perhaps not exclusively. Starmer and Labour are so much part of the furniture, and what they offer is so non-alarming and dull, that I wonder if they could be the main beneficiaries. A safe option, while still representing change.
Swingback, but to the main opposition party.
Just a thought.
Not a ridiculous idea, but on the whole I disagree.
Labour are still an unknown quantity. The small c conservative reflex will be to stick with the incumbent government.
And this is definitely a CHANGE election, but one where Labour aren't offering much in the way of change. That's why Reform are catching so much attention.
Labour are stuck between two stools. I think their campaign is in real trouble. They really need to come out and rally an anti-Farage vote, but they also need to offer a positive and optimistic vision for people to vote for. But it's too late for Starmer to pull that out of the hat. He doesn't do improv, I don't think he does optimism. It was seen as too risky when they drew up the campaign plan.
I don't know - I think I agree with @TimS - it seems clear that even many typically Tory voters are exasperated with the party and how it has governed, and I am worried about the polling day cold feet of many typically Labour voters who may be flirting with Greens (from my pov) worrying a "Vote for Greens is a Vote for Tories" and will get squeezed. I think there is a good argument being made here that Labour are so clearly going to get a majority and the Tories are in such trouble that in this election you don't have to necessarily vote tactically to kick out a Tory government - but with those numbers around how many voters want the Tories to get 0 seats, and how I'm sure some constituents with certain MPs have added desires to kick them out in a cross party manner, I do wonder if Labour could even exceed the polls. But we'll have to see!
The small c conservative swingback could see the Tories recover from 8% to 12% (although my prediction is for higher than that). The existence of a swingback doesn't preclude a wipeout for the Tories, depending on the point at which the swingback starts.
It is a change election after all.
I just don't see where that swingback will come from.
Roughly a quarter of 2019 Con voters want the party to get 0 seats. Many Con voters prefer Farage to Sunak as PM. And those on the other end have nothing to obviously fear from a Starmer Labour party - and wouldn't trust the Tories to be the ones to stop them if they did. We saw under May at the EU elections a result of 19% - I think that is going to be the ceiling for the party rather than the floor this election; that is the core vote share that care enough about the Tory brand specifically. (Yes I know EU election turnout is different and people voted differently because it wasn't fptp and was seen more as an election where protest votes can be cast - but I think this GE is seeing voters equally willing to "protest" vote).
Edited: so we'll just get it from Saudi Arabia instead. Obviously way better for the planet that way.
The Supreme Court in the UK have become very activist.
The Supreme Court judges did not rule that Surrey County Council should reject the proposal for new oil wells but that it should have considered the downstream emissions.
This is precisely the sort of ruling that means any sort of large infrastructure project costs at least £50 Billion more than it should.
We are fucked. The Superme Court was a terrible idea and the Judicial Appointments Commission means we have politicised judges whether we like it or not. And mostly leftwing judges: it's yet another hideous and deliberate legacy from New Labour, which the Tories failed to fix, and they had FOURTEEN YEARS to do it
The Tories must die, Reform or Whoever must take over, and when we get our next chance we basically need a revolution, to sweep the entire blob into the North Sea, judges as well
They're certainly cut from a different cloth than Lord Denning or even more recently Sumption.
The plain idiocy of that ruling is off the scale. As MorrisDancer says (above) "… we'll just get it from Saudi Arabia instead. Obviously way better for the planet that way."
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
My view entirely. The idea that the Tories somehow deserve to retain the position of foreign secretary even after what looks likely to be a monumental going over from the electorate is symptomatic of the born to rule arrogance that has helped to propel them to this sorry state.
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
The number of people I know who are voting Tory is quite extraordinary. I think it's one of those habits that are hard to break. If it wasn't for PB and my belief in polls I would be putting my house on at least a hung parliament
The swingback phenomenon is long standing and well documented. It seems particularly to benefit Conservatives, but we also saw some evidence of it when Labour were in power.
The idea is that ahead of an election people flirt with change and sending a message to the government. They’re fed up. But when the actual election day looms they consider their options and opt for the devil they know. So you get swingback to the incumbent.
This year lots of people are flirting with change. In fact the vast majority of the electorate, both in E&W and Scotland. But they are not just looking at Labour and the Lib Dems, the “established opposition parties”. They’re also looking at Reform and Green.
Over the next two weeks will people start to focus their minds and end up voting more conservatively? Yes, I think they will. It usually happens. But will the beneficiaries in England and Wales be the Tories? Perhaps not exclusively. Starmer and Labour are so much part of the furniture, and what they offer is so non-alarming and dull, that I wonder if they could be the main beneficiaries. A safe option, while still representing change.
Swingback, but to the main opposition party.
Just a thought.
Not a ridiculous idea, but on the whole I disagree.
Labour are still an unknown quantity. The small c conservative reflex will be to stick with the incumbent government.
And this is definitely a CHANGE election, but one where Labour aren't offering much in the way of change. That's why Reform are catching so much attention.
Labour are stuck between two stools. I think their campaign is in real trouble. They really need to come out and rally an anti-Farage vote, but they also need to offer a positive and optimistic vision for people to vote for. But it's too late for Starmer to pull that out of the hat. He doesn't do improv, I don't think he does optimism. It was seen as too risky when they drew up the campaign plan.
I don't know - I think I agree with @TimS - it seems clear that even many typically Tory voters are exasperated with the party and how it has governed, and I am worried about the polling day cold feet of many typically Labour voters who may be flirting with Greens (from my pov) worrying a "Vote for Greens is a Vote for Tories" and will get squeezed. I think there is a good argument being made here that Labour are so clearly going to get a majority and the Tories are in such trouble that in this election you don't have to necessarily vote tactically to kick out a Tory government - but with those numbers around how many voters want the Tories to get 0 seats, and how I'm sure some constituents with certain MPs have added desires to kick them out in a cross party manner, I do wonder if Labour could even exceed the polls. But we'll have to see!
The small c conservative swingback could see the Tories recover from 8% to 12% (although my prediction is for higher than that). The existence of a swingback doesn't preclude a wipeout for the Tories, depending on the point at which the swingback starts.
It is a change election after all.
I just don't see where that swingback will come from.
Roughly a quarter of 2019 Con voters want the party to get 0 seats. Many Con voters prefer Farage to Sunak as PM. And those on the other end have nothing to obviously fear from a Starmer Labour party - and wouldn't trust the Tories to be the ones to stop them if they did. We saw under May at the EU elections a result of 19% - I think that is going to be the ceiling for the party rather than the floor this election; that is the core vote share that care enough about the Tory brand specifically. (Yes I know EU election turnout is different and people voted differently because it wasn't fptp and was seen more as an election where protest votes can be cast - but I think this GE is seeing voters equally willing to "protest" vote).
The Tories got 9% in the 2019 EU parliament elections, the Brexit Party 31%
The swingback phenomenon is long standing and well documented. It seems particularly to benefit Conservatives, but we also saw some evidence of it when Labour were in power.
The idea is that ahead of an election people flirt with change and sending a message to the government. They’re fed up. But when the actual election day looms they consider their options and opt for the devil they know. So you get swingback to the incumbent.
This year lots of people are flirting with change. In fact the vast majority of the electorate, both in E&W and Scotland. But they are not just looking at Labour and the Lib Dems, the “established opposition parties”. They’re also looking at Reform and Green.
Over the next two weeks will people start to focus their minds and end up voting more conservatively? Yes, I think they will. It usually happens. But will the beneficiaries in England and Wales be the Tories? Perhaps not exclusively. Starmer and Labour are so much part of the furniture, and what they offer is so non-alarming and dull, that I wonder if they could be the main beneficiaries. A safe option, while still representing change.
Swingback, but to the main opposition party.
Just a thought.
Not a ridiculous idea, but on the whole I disagree.
Labour are still an unknown quantity. The small c conservative reflex will be to stick with the incumbent government.
And this is definitely a CHANGE election, but one where Labour aren't offering much in the way of change. That's why Reform are catching so much attention.
Labour are stuck between two stools. I think their campaign is in real trouble. They really need to come out and rally an anti-Farage vote, but they also need to offer a positive and optimistic vision for people to vote for. But it's too late for Starmer to pull that out of the hat. He doesn't do improv, I don't think he does optimism. It was seen as too risky when they drew up the campaign plan.
I don't know - I think I agree with @TimS - it seems clear that even many typically Tory voters are exasperated with the party and how it has governed, and I am worried about the polling day cold feet of many typically Labour voters who may be flirting with Greens (from my pov) worrying a "Vote for Greens is a Vote for Tories" and will get squeezed. I think there is a good argument being made here that Labour are so clearly going to get a majority and the Tories are in such trouble that in this election you don't have to necessarily vote tactically to kick out a Tory government - but with those numbers around how many voters want the Tories to get 0 seats, and how I'm sure some constituents with certain MPs have added desires to kick them out in a cross party manner, I do wonder if Labour could even exceed the polls. But we'll have to see!
The small c conservative swingback could see the Tories recover from 8% to 12% (although my prediction is for higher than that). The existence of a swingback doesn't preclude a wipeout for the Tories, depending on the point at which the swingback starts.
It is a change election after all.
I just don't see where that swingback will come from.
Roughly a quarter of 2019 Con voters want the party to get 0 seats. Many Con voters prefer Farage to Sunak as PM. And those on the other end have nothing to obviously fear from a Starmer Labour party - and wouldn't trust the Tories to be the ones to stop them if they did. We saw under May at the EU elections a result of 19% - I think that is going to be the ceiling for the party rather than the floor this election; that is the core vote share that care enough about the Tory brand specifically. (Yes I know EU election turnout is different and people voted differently because it wasn't fptp and was seen more as an election where protest votes can be cast - but I think this GE is seeing voters equally willing to "protest" vote).
The Tories got 9% in the 2019 EU parliament elections, the Brexit Party 31%
Apologies, I misremembered, which does change my thinking - 9% is the floor then, not the ceiling. I hope it doesn't go that low, because that would mean Reform winning seats.
Their model is a nonsense for the Reform vote, it's predicted higher in Bassetlaw than Clacton. Now I think Reform may well do well in my constituency but the idea their share will be higher than Clacton is for the birds.
And just like that The Crow Road, bookshop of Arundel, is live.
Will you be featuring Iain Banks books?
And Iain M. Banks?
I was once on a whisky drinking panel with Iain Banks.
(A slightly weird claim to 'fame'...)
My Iain Banks story also involves whisky...
1987, the World Science Fiction Convention was held in Brighton. Somehow, at some point, after a panel discussion I ended up with a group of a dozen or fifteen fans drinking (whisky of course) in the hotel bar with the man himself. A lot of whisky was drunk. As the evening wore on, Iain announced he needed to go back to his room, and said good night. We all wandered out of the front door with him, whereon he paused, looked around, and said, 'We've just come out of my hotel. My room is back in there.' He looked up at the front of the hotel, counting storeys, and pointed at a balcony on the third or fourth floor. 'That's my room!' . Whereon, with much encouragement from us drunkards, he climbed up the facade, balcony to balcony, up to his room, and waved us goodnight.
If Starmer pushes through the legal framework in which government / councils need to always consider reducing inequality, we will be seeing loads of similar legal action. Even the Shit Law Project might win some cases.
At this point it's becoming downright irresponsible to put out dashed-off-in-five-minutes constituency projections like that. You just know some chasing-fourth-place muppet, of whatever party, is right now printing off a whole bunch of leaflets saying "The Economist says we're the only challengers here".
UNS and no tactical voting. Not what I would choose for this particular election.
Maybe it'll unexpectedly turn out to be the most accurate forecast.
Definitely wouldn't rule it out. This will be the hardest election to model for ages and all approaches have their weakenesses, but it still feels the wrong approach for me.
I think anti-Tory is a bigger bloc than pro-Labour let alone pro-LD or Reform so tactical voting in particular is hard to ignore.
That's got to be the shittest forecast of the day. Not a single poll predicts anything like this outcome, AFAIK
That's what I was predicting roughly before Rain man, DDay, Faragasm, betting tossers, almost all Tories being morons, National Arse Service, etc etc etc. Goobers.
The swingback phenomenon is long standing and well documented. It seems particularly to benefit Conservatives, but we also saw some evidence of it when Labour were in power.
The idea is that ahead of an election people flirt with change and sending a message to the government. They’re fed up. But when the actual election day looms they consider their options and opt for the devil they know. So you get swingback to the incumbent.
This year lots of people are flirting with change. In fact the vast majority of the electorate, both in E&W and Scotland. But they are not just looking at Labour and the Lib Dems, the “established opposition parties”. They’re also looking at Reform and Green.
Over the next two weeks will people start to focus their minds and end up voting more conservatively? Yes, I think they will. It usually happens. But will the beneficiaries in England and Wales be the Tories? Perhaps not exclusively. Starmer and Labour are so much part of the furniture, and what they offer is so non-alarming and dull, that I wonder if they could be the main beneficiaries. A safe option, while still representing change.
Swingback, but to the main opposition party.
Just a thought.
Not a ridiculous idea, but on the whole I disagree.
Labour are still an unknown quantity. The small c conservative reflex will be to stick with the incumbent government.
And this is definitely a CHANGE election, but one where Labour aren't offering much in the way of change. That's why Reform are catching so much attention.
Labour are stuck between two stools. I think their campaign is in real trouble. They really need to come out and rally an anti-Farage vote, but they also need to offer a positive and optimistic vision for people to vote for. But it's too late for Starmer to pull that out of the hat. He doesn't do improv, I don't think he does optimism. It was seen as too risky when they drew up the campaign plan.
I don't know - I think I agree with @TimS - it seems clear that even many typically Tory voters are exasperated with the party and how it has governed, and I am worried about the polling day cold feet of many typically Labour voters who may be flirting with Greens (from my pov) worrying a "Vote for Greens is a Vote for Tories" and will get squeezed. I think there is a good argument being made here that Labour are so clearly going to get a majority and the Tories are in such trouble that in this election you don't have to necessarily vote tactically to kick out a Tory government - but with those numbers around how many voters want the Tories to get 0 seats, and how I'm sure some constituents with certain MPs have added desires to kick them out in a cross party manner, I do wonder if Labour could even exceed the polls. But we'll have to see!
The small c conservative swingback could see the Tories recover from 8% to 12% (although my prediction is for higher than that). The existence of a swingback doesn't preclude a wipeout for the Tories, depending on the point at which the swingback starts.
It is a change election after all.
I just don't see where that swingback will come from.
Roughly a quarter of 2019 Con voters want the party to get 0 seats. Many Con voters prefer Farage to Sunak as PM. And those on the other end have nothing to obviously fear from a Starmer Labour party - and wouldn't trust the Tories to be the ones to stop them if they did. We saw under May at the EU elections a result of 19% - I think that is going to be the ceiling for the party rather than the floor this election; that is the core vote share that care enough about the Tory brand specifically. (Yes I know EU election turnout is different and people voted differently because it wasn't fptp and was seen more as an election where protest votes can be cast - but I think this GE is seeing voters equally willing to "protest" vote).
The Tories got 9% in the 2019 EU parliament elections, the Brexit Party 31%
Apologies, I misremembered, which does change my thinking - 9% is the floor then, not the ceiling. I hope it doesn't go that low, because that would mean Reform winning seats.
Yes, if Labour got 35% say as per the new Goodwin poll, Reform 31% as in the EU elections, the LDs 12%, the Tories 9% and Greens 5% then Labour would get 315 seats, Reform 246 seats, the LDs 36, the SNP 21, the Tories 6 and Greens 2.
It would be a hung parliament, Labour largest party and Starmer PM but with Farage Leader of the Opposition
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
The number of people I know who are voting Tory is quite extraordinary. I think it's one of those habits that are hard to break. If it wasn't for PB and my belief in polls I would be putting my house on at least a hung parliament
Roger, you're a wealthy retired tampon ad executive, educated at a minor public school, who mainly lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer
Your social circle is probably quite unusual, and may indeed be limited to 24/7 private nurses
I have a wide circle of friends and family, home and abroad, rich and poor, who are a real mix, arty and geeky, you name it. In the past they've been everything from SWP to BNP, but mainly Labour and Tory, with a couple of Libs, Nits and UKIPs
Not a single one is definitely voting Tory. One was edging that way but the Reform Manifesto has tempted her to Farage
I can therefore believe these stories of total wipe-out (sorry @Sandpit). Unless there is a shy Tory effect at work, but I don't believe it, people aren't embarrassed about voting Tory or not voting Tory, they just despise them, quietly or loudly. A shy Reform vote is more likely, because Farage
Edited: so we'll just get it from Saudi Arabia instead. Obviously way better for the planet that way.
The Supreme Court in the UK have become very activist.
The Supreme Court judges did not rule that Surrey County Council should reject the proposal for new oil wells but that it should have considered the downstream emissions.
This is precisely the sort of ruling that means any sort of large infrastructure project costs at least £50 Billion more than it should.
It means we will import 100% of our oil and gas
Another reason why the Tories deserve #zeroseats is because they didn't get rid of this Supreme Court
100% of zero* is zero. The important thing to focus on is to stop burning oil and gas by implementing better technologies.
*I know we have plenty of other uses for oil and gas besides combustion, but still.
Mind you UKOG was always a pretty iffy proposition. I believe lots of ukippers invested their life savings at 300p - it ticked both the climate hoax and patriot boxes - and learnt how 300 can become 001 overnight.
I wonder if there is a betting market on how long Lee Anderson will be a member of reform if he and Farage both end up as reform MPs on July 5th. I cannot see it lasting long as neither of them seems to have the ability to get on with anyone else. The idea of the two of them as the only two reform MPs would be wonderful to watch. The only question would be would he stomp off in a huff or would Farage fire him.
The swingback phenomenon is long standing and well documented. It seems particularly to benefit Conservatives, but we also saw some evidence of it when Labour were in power.
The idea is that ahead of an election people flirt with change and sending a message to the government. They’re fed up. But when the actual election day looms they consider their options and opt for the devil they know. So you get swingback to the incumbent.
This year lots of people are flirting with change. In fact the vast majority of the electorate, both in E&W and Scotland. But they are not just looking at Labour and the Lib Dems, the “established opposition parties”. They’re also looking at Reform and Green.
Over the next two weeks will people start to focus their minds and end up voting more conservatively? Yes, I think they will. It usually happens. But will the beneficiaries in England and Wales be the Tories? Perhaps not exclusively. Starmer and Labour are so much part of the furniture, and what they offer is so non-alarming and dull, that I wonder if they could be the main beneficiaries. A safe option, while still representing change.
Swingback, but to the main opposition party.
Just a thought.
Not a ridiculous idea, but on the whole I disagree.
Labour are still an unknown quantity. The small c conservative reflex will be to stick with the incumbent government.
And this is definitely a CHANGE election, but one where Labour aren't offering much in the way of change. That's why Reform are catching so much attention.
Labour are stuck between two stools. I think their campaign is in real trouble. They really need to come out and rally an anti-Farage vote, but they also need to offer a positive and optimistic vision for people to vote for. But it's too late for Starmer to pull that out of the hat. He doesn't do improv, I don't think he does optimism. It was seen as too risky when they drew up the campaign plan.
I don't know - I think I agree with @TimS - it seems clear that even many typically Tory voters are exasperated with the party and how it has governed, and I am worried about the polling day cold feet of many typically Labour voters who may be flirting with Greens (from my pov) worrying a "Vote for Greens is a Vote for Tories" and will get squeezed. I think there is a good argument being made here that Labour are so clearly going to get a majority and the Tories are in such trouble that in this election you don't have to necessarily vote tactically to kick out a Tory government - but with those numbers around how many voters want the Tories to get 0 seats, and how I'm sure some constituents with certain MPs have added desires to kick them out in a cross party manner, I do wonder if Labour could even exceed the polls. But we'll have to see!
The small c conservative swingback could see the Tories recover from 8% to 12% (although my prediction is for higher than that). The existence of a swingback doesn't preclude a wipeout for the Tories, depending on the point at which the swingback starts.
It is a change election after all.
I just don't see where that swingback will come from.
Roughly a quarter of 2019 Con voters want the party to get 0 seats. Many Con voters prefer Farage to Sunak as PM. And those on the other end have nothing to obviously fear from a Starmer Labour party - and wouldn't trust the Tories to be the ones to stop them if they did. We saw under May at the EU elections a result of 19% - I think that is going to be the ceiling for the party rather than the floor this election; that is the core vote share that care enough about the Tory brand specifically. (Yes I know EU election turnout is different and people voted differently because it wasn't fptp and was seen more as an election where protest votes can be cast - but I think this GE is seeing voters equally willing to "protest" vote).
We can see it in posters on PB.com, who have rationalised a way for them to vote Tory. Lots of others will do the same.
EDIT: 8.8% for the Tories in the 2019 EU election.
Surely the health warning on betting based on Lib Dem leaflets is in even bigger than MRPs ? In my area the Lib Dems have been saying it's not a Labour target, but the Labour office was buzzing on a Saturday morning while their office was closed. May not be the same in Tewkesbury of course.
I would rely on the LD leaflet count more than the MRP. We don't waste leaflets on non targets. The most you will get is the Royal Mail delivery and possibly a national leaflet.
Nice article @Peter_the_Punter. I wrote the above before reading your article which I agree with completely. A better guide than MRP, which appears to struggle with such high national Lab polling and such low national LD polling for the seats where the LDs are potential challengers. If LDs are really working it and Lab aren't then an MRP that makes Lab the challenger is nonsense.
The real difficulty is where both are going for it, like we are hearing about Wantage and Didcot which has been argued about on here. Anecdotally, as I posted yesterday, from someone I know there, they have had loads of LD leaflets, yet no Lab ones, so it will be interesting to see who the challenger is/was there after the election. Worth a note that they have also not had any Tory leaflets.
Thank Kjh.
Yes, it's easy to see where MRP struggles. They don't take make account of quality of candidate either. For example, they regard the LD as a shoo-in in my neighbouring constituency of Cheltenham but the incumbent Alex Chalk has such a good reputation I wouldn't want to be taking short odds on it.
Here in Winchcombe, I've had leaflets from the Tories, LDs and Greens. Nothing from Labour, although to my surprise I did see a Red poster in the High Street. The Greens, by the way, have a good candidate. The Reform guy is little more than token. Neither fact will help the LD's chances, but when I contacted the candidate, Cameron Thomas, a few days ago he reported the campaign to be 'going well'.
I am sure the LDs will get a good result here, but whether or not they win the cigar.....
2nd bit of feedback from Wantage and Didcot ( @Andy_Cooke and @NickPalmer ). Again another member of the campaign I am involved in who are non political but very interested in who gets elected for obvious reasons. The current Tory MP has been a champion for our cause.
"I have had campaign leaflets from Labour and the SDP, plus several leaflets from the Liberal Democrats.
The Liberal Democrats are making quite in effort in Wantage, and seem to regard this as one of their target seats."
Thanks, kjh - always useful to get the feel of whether or not we're cutting through.
There are countless LibDem leaflets, which mostly are generic (not referring to the candidate) - on a given day, residents may receive 2 different ones: they are slightly overdoing it IMO. There are fairly widespread Labour leaflets and some SDP leaflets, but none so far from the Tories, who seem to have given up. LibDem posters were up first and are moderately common, though less so than in previous seats where I've been aqctive. Labour posters are catching up. I've yet to see a single Tory poster. Constituency polling varies between a smalle Labour lead to a large LibDem lead; I've yet to see a Tory lead predicted by any of them. Labour is working hard and in with a reasonable shot - but there are masses of tactical anti-Tory voters still making up their minds.
The fact the CCHQ workers are keeping silent suggests that their bet on the GE date probably wasn't £50. If it was a very small amount you can probably excuse it away.
2nd bit of feedback from Wantage and Didcot ( @Andy_Cooke and @NickPalmer ). Again another member of the campaign I am involved in who are non political but very interested in who gets elected for obvious reasons. The current Tory MP has been a champion for our cause.
"I have had campaign leaflets from Labour and the SDP, plus several leaflets from the Liberal Democrats.
The Liberal Democrats are making quite in effort in Wantage, and seem to regard this as one of their target seats."
Thanks, kjh - always useful to get the feel of whether or not we're cutting through.
There are countless LibDem leaflets, which mostly are generic (not referring to the candidate) - on a given day, residents may receive 2 different ones: they are slightly overdoing it IMO. There are fairly widespread Labour leaflets and some SDP leaflets, but none so far from the Tories, who seem to have given up. LibDem posters were up first and are moderately common, though less so than in previous seats where I've been aqctive. Labour posters are catching up. I've yet to see a single Tory poster. Constituency polling varies between a smalle Labour lead to a large LibDem lead; I've yet to see a Tory lead predicted by any of them. Labour is working hard and in with a reasonable shot - but there are masses of tactical anti-Tory voters still making up their minds.
There is no "constituency polling" in Didcot & Wantage, at least not that has been made public.
There are MRPs. Projections. These are not the same thing.
That's got to be the shittest forecast of the day. Not a single poll predicts anything like this outcome, AFAIK
That's what I was predicting roughly before Rain man, DDay, Faragasm, betting tossers, almost all Tories being morons, National Arse Service, etc etc etc. Goobers.
Plus the surge of Reform
Speaking of which, we NEED A POLL to see if Goodwin's mad outlier was indeed a mad outlier
This election has to be the one where there has been the least discussion of policy I can remember. What policy has even garnered any attention, the stupid national service one.
I reckon most people would struggle to even name any other policies from any parties.
I wonder if there is a betting market on how long Lee Anderson will be a member of reform if he and Farage both end up as reform MPs on July 5th. I cannot see it lasting long as neither of them seems to have the ability to get on with anyone else. The idea of the two of them as the only two reform MPs would be wonderful to watch. The only question would be would he stomp off in a huff or would Farage fire him.
I just assume that if Farage gets into Parliament that Reform won't exist in the way it does now, anyway. I think Farage will become leader of what is left of the Tory party, or Reform and some of the right wing Tories will merge and create a Reform 2.0 party.
UNS and no tactical voting. Not what I would choose for this particular election.
Maybe it'll unexpectedly turn out to be the most accurate forecast.
“The model is trained on historic voting behaviour between 1959 and 2019. It does not take into account tactical voting or the effects of parties' campaigns in individual constituencies”.
Not really sure what that means. If trained on previous elections there’s some tactical voting baked in.
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
I always have been loyal to David Cameron even when he said he liked Hawaiian pizzas.
In fact I have been more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife.
If Dave wasn’t in government I would be abstaining.
So you are voting for a local candidate based on the random appointment of David Cameron as Foreign Secretary because the Government had run out of people of appropriate stature
If Starmer pushes through the legal framework in which government / councils need to always consider reducing inequality, we will be seeing loads of similar legal action. Even the Shit Law Project might win some cases.
From the depths of my memory, there was something dubbed "socialism in one clause" which Gordon Brown tried to introduce as PM, but which he backed off from in the end.
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
The number of people I know who are voting Tory is quite extraordinary. I think it's one of those habits that are hard to break. If it wasn't for PB and my belief in polls I would be putting my house on at least a hung parliament
Roger, you're a wealthy retired tampon ad executive, educated at a minor public school, who mainly lives in Villefranche-sur-Mer
Your social circle is probably quite unusual, and may indeed be limited to 24/7 private nurses
I have a wide circle of friends and family, home and abroad, rich and poor, who are a real mix, arty and geeky, you name it. In the past they've been everything from SWP to BNP, but mainly Labour and Tory, with a couple of Libs, Nits and UKIPs
Not a single one is definitely voting Tory. One was edging that way but the Reform Manifesto has tempted her to Farage
I can therefore believe these stories of total wipe-out (sorry @Sandpit). Unless there is a shy Tory effect at work, but I don't believe it, people aren't embarrassed about voting Tory or not voting Tory, they just despise them, quietly or loudly. A shy Reform vote is more likely, because Farage
Exactly what I was saying yesterday.
A lot of people don't want to come out for Farage as supporting Reform is like saying toilet or serviette. Not the done thing.
So a lot of people will be saying Conservative, even to the pollsters, and perhaps believing it themselves. But if enough people start openly supporting Reform, the love that dare not speak its name - may become a lot more open.
People will be hosting coming out parties. Oh, you're Reform? Me too! I just couldn't admit my secret yearnings in a Reformophobic country... but now everyone's doing it... they will be having Reform Pride marches. Jackboots and all.
Err, well maybe not, but you get my point. Once the dam breaks, it breaks. And I get the sense that we're very close to that happening.
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
Oh aye, like that’s gonna happen.
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
I always have been loyal to David Cameron even when he said he liked Hawaiian pizzas.
In fact I have been more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife.
If Dave wasn’t in government I would be abstaining.
So you are voting for a local candidate based on the random appointment of David Cameron as Foreign Secretary because the Government had run out of people of appropriate stature
Careful, I got called "demeaning" yesterday when referring to the Prime Minister's stature.
That's got to be the shittest forecast of the day. Not a single poll predicts anything like this outcome, AFAIK
That's what I was predicting roughly before Rain man, DDay, Faragasm, betting tossers, almost all Tories being morons, National Arse Service, etc etc etc. Goobers.
Plus the surge of Reform
Speaking of which, we NEED A POLL to see if Goodwin's mad outlier was indeed a mad outlier
YouGov tomorrow or tonight should be interesting! Along with Redfield if they do one today
This election has to be the one where there has been the least discussion of policy I can remember. What policy has even garnered any attention, the stupid national service one.
I reckon most people would struggle to even name any other policies from any parties.
Yep. Although I wonder whether we forgot how poor each GE on policy discussion was with each passing cycle?
The fact the CCHQ workers are keeping silent suggests that their bet on the GE date probably wasn't £50. If it was a very small amount you can probably excuse it away.
You really can’t - tricking £5 out of someone based on confidential inside information is no different from tricking £100,000 out of them.
I just can’t believe they were that f*88ing stupid
If Starmer pushes through the legal framework in which government / councils need to always consider reducing inequality, we will be seeing loads of similar legal action. Even the Shit Law Project might win some cases.
Not really. The UK is still self-reliant for petrol, and 70% ish for crude (with imports from friendly countries like Norway) so any additional drilling will simply slow the transition of economy to renewables and prolong our market exposure to global arseholes.
It's such uncharted territory, for a GE campaign at least, that I'm increasingly unconvinced we'll necessarily be that much the wiser when the Exit Poll comes out, that could easily be +/-40 on Lab, +/-60 on Con seats, +/-20 on LD and Reform seats, +/- 15 on left of Labour seats, +/-8 on SNP seats.
The fact the CCHQ workers are keeping silent suggests that their bet on the GE date probably wasn't £50. If it was a very small amount you can probably excuse it away.
You really can’t - tricking £5 out of someone based on confidential inside information is no different from tricking £100,000 out of them.
I just can’t believe they were that f*88ing stupid
I meant politically. The numpty bag carrier, if it had just been him, it wasn't really a big story. He was able to wave it away as a silly £100 bet and the media moved on.
As for stupidity, absolutely. Not only if there were any checks will you get picked up, but you can't even get life changing money on these novelty markets.
Astonishing news that the CCHQ director of campaigns has now taken a leave of absence while his wife - a Con candidate - is being investigated for placing a bet on the date of the election.
It encapsulates both the incompetence and corruption at the heart of this sorry government (or indeed their contempt for democracy). This is the sort of thing that can cut through as well. They deserve the kicking that is hopefully coming to them.
I may be in the minority, but is it not possible that those who had a tip about the election genuinely thought there was nothing wrong in using said tip for a wager? I know ignorance of the law (is this is legal thing, or terms and conditions with the betting firm?) is not a defence.
There also seems to be a grey area. I placed bets on the day that things were leaking out, but before the official announcement. Was that illegal?
This is politics. Legally (betting law isn't my thing) it might not be a problem. To the untrained eye, including that of this lawyer, it is.
A parallel which may be useful is the law of theft. To be theft, the action has to be 'dishonest' since appropriating property belonging to another (drinking a can of coke from my friend's mum's kitchen without asking anyone on a single occasion, picking up a single golf ball on a golf course with no players apparently around) will not be dishonest, even though it it otherwise theft.
English law wisely leaves this question to the magistrate/jury. I think it will do the same here. There is a grey area between 'DYOR' and 'inside information'.
On the assumption that the Supreme Court are trained judges who know how to interpret the law, surely the issue is the law (and the lawmakers), not the court.
The swingback phenomenon is long standing and well documented. It seems particularly to benefit Conservatives, but we also saw some evidence of it when Labour were in power.
The idea is that ahead of an election people flirt with change and sending a message to the government. They’re fed up. But when the actual election day looms they consider their options and opt for the devil they know. So you get swingback to the incumbent.
This year lots of people are flirting with change. In fact the vast majority of the electorate, both in E&W and Scotland. But they are not just looking at Labour and the Lib Dems, the “established opposition parties”. They’re also looking at Reform and Green.
Over the next two weeks will people start to focus their minds and end up voting more conservatively? Yes, I think they will. It usually happens. But will the beneficiaries in England and Wales be the Tories? Perhaps not exclusively. Starmer and Labour are so much part of the furniture, and what they offer is so non-alarming and dull, that I wonder if they could be the main beneficiaries. A safe option, while still representing change.
Swingback, but to the main opposition party.
Just a thought.
Not a ridiculous idea, but on the whole I disagree.
Labour are still an unknown quantity. The small c conservative reflex will be to stick with the incumbent government.
And this is definitely a CHANGE election, but one where Labour aren't offering much in the way of change. That's why Reform are catching so much attention.
Labour are stuck between two stools. I think their campaign is in real trouble. They really need to come out and rally an anti-Farage vote, but they also need to offer a positive and optimistic vision for people to vote for. But it's too late for Starmer to pull that out of the hat. He doesn't do improv, I don't think he does optimism. It was seen as too risky when they drew up the campaign plan.
I don't know - I think I agree with @TimS - it seems clear that even many typically Tory voters are exasperated with the party and how it has governed, and I am worried about the polling day cold feet of many typically Labour voters who may be flirting with Greens (from my pov) worrying a "Vote for Greens is a Vote for Tories" and will get squeezed. I think there is a good argument being made here that Labour are so clearly going to get a majority and the Tories are in such trouble that in this election you don't have to necessarily vote tactically to kick out a Tory government - but with those numbers around how many voters want the Tories to get 0 seats, and how I'm sure some constituents with certain MPs have added desires to kick them out in a cross party manner, I do wonder if Labour could even exceed the polls. But we'll have to see!
A vote for Green in the vast majority of seats is a wasted vote, pure and simple. So it's right that those votes are squeezed. There are exceptions – but not very many.
On the assumption that the Supreme Court are trained judges who know how to interpret the law, surely the issue is the law (and the lawmakers), not the court.
Probably something either May or Gordo wrote into the books wanting to look like the sun was shining out their arsehole. It is a plus point in favour of a reform vote in my book. Against that their mad economics would probably mean interest rates of 50%.
Serbia have threatened to pull out of Euro 2024 over chanting between fans at the match between Croatia and Albania on Wednesday.
Fans could be heard chanting about the killing of Serbians during the 2-2 draw in the Group B match.
The general secretary of the Football Association of Serbia, Jovan Surbatovic, has called for the strongest sanction to be taken.
He told the Serbian state-owned broadcaster RTS: "What happened is scandalous and we will ask [European governing body] Uefa for sanctions, even if it means not continuing the competition."
Serbia are in Group C and began the tournament with a 1-0 defeat by England on Sunday.
Surbatovic said that he was "sure they will be punished" following Uefa's decision on Wednesday to cancel the credentials of Kosovar journalist, Arlind Sadiku.
Sadiku made a nationalist double-handed eagle gesture towards Serbia fans during the game against England. The gesture mimics the eagle on Albania's national flag, which can inflame tensions between Serbian nationalists and ethnic Albanians, who make up the vast majority of Kosovo's population.
"We will demand from Uefa to punish the federations of both selections," Surbatovic added.
"We do not want to participate in that, but if Uefa does not punish them, we will think how will we proceed."
The BBC has contacted Serbia and Uefa for further comment.
Serbia were fined £12,250 after fans threw objects during the Englan
Greatest news for us savers as we have been persecuted since 2009.
Interest rates stay at 5.25%
UK interest rates have been left unchanged at 5.25% by the Bank of England.
The Bank has held rates at 5.25% for the seventh time, in an effort to combat inflation, leading to higher mortgage repayments but also higher savings rates.
Edited: so we'll just get it from Saudi Arabia instead. Obviously way better for the planet that way.
The Supreme Court in the UK have become very activist.
The Supreme Court judges did not rule that Surrey County Council should reject the proposal for new oil wells but that it should have considered the downstream emissions.
This is precisely the sort of ruling that means any sort of large infrastructure project costs at least £50 Billion more than it should.
It means we will import 100% of our oil and gas
Another reason why the Tories deserve #zeroseats is because they didn't get rid of this Supreme Court
100% of zero* is zero. The important thing to focus on is to stop burning oil and gas by implementing better technologies.
*I know we have plenty of other uses for oil and gas besides combustion, but still.
That is a really important point. Aside from the environmental damage caused by burning fossil fuels, it seems an utterly insane waste of a valuable resource that has other vital uses. If we keep it in the ground, it'll still be there for when we really need it. Those who advocate extracting and burning our reserves now risk leaving our children at the mercy of those countries with greater reserves than us. Idiots.
Comments
I'm not implying that the constituency is full of white power racists, far from it, but it certainly is a much less diverse part of the country than almost anywhere else.
Betfair odds: Murrison (Tory) 1.88, Akoto (Labour) 1.8 - so slight favourite.
DYOR but I think Murrison will be ok. (Perhaps @kle4 might have an opinion as its his constituency too?)
No one gives a shit but they basically think it's pathetic that a bunch of rich Tories were insider trading on the election date. The main issue is they know I place political bets and think I'm a mug for trying to outwit these people.
They aren't wrong.
Cabinet ministers say that huge polls showing Tories are on course for wipeout are beyond their ‘wildest nightmares’
‘The country has made a fundamental decision overall. Anything that is said about tax or anything else is ignored.
‘There is no way of sorting this. You don’t give up locally. But there is no quick fix to this. I hope I can stick to the Nytol and not reach for the Valium’
In the past fortnight we have driven into Chichester from three different routes. Along each route we saw dozens and dozens of Lib Dem posters. I think I might have spotted one Conservative one.
Today in a very upmarket part of Emsworth I saw two Labour Party posters.
The tide is turning...
There also seems to be a grey area. I placed bets on the day that things were leaking out, but before the official announcement. Was that illegal?
Didn’t you previously say you were minded not to vote Tory? Are you Big G-like in your flip floppery?!
I’m only joshing, I don’t blame you, or him, for returning to the fold. You both seem to have longstanding, heartfelt, tribal feelings for the party. It’s not something I understand personally, but it must be difficult to see an organisation you have such an affinity, a connection, with in such deep, deep shit.
I’ll never forgive the Tories for what they’ve done to this country for the last 14 years, for the damage austerity has brought to my part of the Red Wall, the closed libraries and sports centres, the crumbling public realm, the hard-pressed public services, the slow, wilful destruction of the NHS. And I’ll never forgive them for stripping me of my European citizenship and Freedom of Movement, for their weakness in standing up to their nutters.
I want them to get a good fucking hammering. I want their handling of the last 14 years to be clearly, unequivocally, decisively rejected by the public. I want them to be chastened, to have their time in the wilderness, to renew. But I don’t want them destroyed. Because as bad as they are - and I hate the party with a passion even though I have plenty of Tory friends -Farage is worse.
https://ft.com/content/89fe9d6b-3a0f-42a5-af50-cff7f457a126
This latest own goal just further trashes Sunaks speech when he came in as PM .
The Tories must die, Reform or Whoever must take over, and when we get our next chance we basically need a revolution, to sweep the entire blob into the North Sea, judges as well
I don’t know how they are structured but is there a way a coup can happen and dump out the idiots who have been running things and appointing or selecting jokers who are haunting the party now?
Everything from staffing to candidate selection (Mayor of London mess) seems to be a terrible joke and for all Rishi’s deficiencies it’s not helped by a dysfunctional political operation behind him or whoever takes over.
In that they've largely been able to be unobtrusive and what scrutiny they have had over plans has been largely neutered by the Tories' errors. Starmer's personal ratings have modestly ticked up, so have avoided gaffes while introducing him to a wider public.
Polling has maybe ticked down a bit, but not more than might've been expected and still well past the winning post.
Reform and Farage has been a bit of a wildcard but one that's not really Labour's problem (at this election at least) and is maybe even helpful in splitting the right and sucking the oxygen away from everything else.
There were some rows with the left that were ugly, but have largely fizzled out rather than split the party.
It's not spectacular or pretty, but then winning election campaigns rarely are - as they're not aimed at those who have a strong interest in politics.
I've always opposed this. I prefer to see practical policy to achieve the desired end - i.e. investment in zero carbon alternatives - rather than creating a law and calling it job done.
I have a 100% track record of winding you the fuck up. It enlivens my mornings, along with caffeine, so I thankyou
In fact I have been more loyal to Dave than I was to my wife.
If Dave wasn’t in government I would be abstaining.
It is a change election after all.
As for "judges as well" - how do you expect us to believe your protestations of "not fascist" when you decide that the judiciary is an inconvenience? The legislature next no doubt.
You really are beneath me. Reading you drops the average IQ 40 points. Being you must send it into negative territory. I don't know why I bother trying to educate you. Shut up and listen to your betters on here and you might learn something.
Another reason why the Tories deserve #zeroseats is because they didn't get rid of this Supreme Court
Roughly a quarter of 2019 Con voters want the party to get 0 seats. Many Con voters prefer Farage to Sunak as PM. And those on the other end have nothing to obviously fear from a Starmer Labour party - and wouldn't trust the Tories to be the ones to stop them if they did. We saw under May at the EU elections a result of 19% - I think that is going to be the ceiling for the party rather than the floor this election; that is the core vote share that care enough about the Tory brand specifically. (Yes I know EU election turnout is different and people voted differently because it wasn't fptp and was seen more as an election where protest votes can be cast - but I think this GE is seeing voters equally willing to "protest" vote).
Lab 383
Con 184
SNP 28
LD 23
Grn 1
Ref 0
https://www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/forecast
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
1987, the World Science Fiction Convention was held in Brighton. Somehow, at some point, after a panel discussion I ended up with a group of a dozen or fifteen fans drinking (whisky of course) in the hotel bar with the man himself.
A lot of whisky was drunk.
As the evening wore on, Iain announced he needed to go back to his room, and said good night. We all wandered out of the front door with him, whereon he paused, looked around, and said, 'We've just come out of my hotel. My room is back in there.'
He looked up at the front of the hotel, counting storeys, and pointed at a balcony on the third or fourth floor. 'That's my room!' .
Whereon, with much encouragement from us drunkards, he climbed up the facade, balcony to balcony, up to his room, and waved us goodnight.
Landmark ruling could threaten future UK oil drilling
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cxwwzmn12g9o
If Starmer pushes through the legal framework in which government / councils need to always consider reducing inequality, we will be seeing loads of similar legal action. Even the Shit Law Project might win some cases.
I think anti-Tory is a bigger bloc than pro-Labour let alone pro-LD or Reform so tactical voting in particular is hard to ignore.
Goobers.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/jan/14/kieran-trippier-may-never-serve-full-betting-ban-after-panel-deals-blow-to-fa
It would be a hung parliament, Labour largest party and Starmer PM but with Farage Leader of the Opposition
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=9&LAB=35&LIB=12&Reform=31&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.2&SCOTLAB=36.7&SCOTLIB=6.9&SCOTReform=3.2&SCOTGreen=2.5&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=33.1&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Your social circle is probably quite unusual, and may indeed be limited to 24/7 private nurses
I have a wide circle of friends and family, home and abroad, rich and poor, who are a real mix, arty and geeky, you name it. In the past they've been everything from SWP to BNP, but mainly Labour and Tory, with a couple of Libs, Nits and UKIPs
Not a single one is definitely voting Tory. One was edging that way but the Reform Manifesto has tempted her to Farage
I can therefore believe these stories of total wipe-out (sorry @Sandpit). Unless there is a shy Tory effect at work, but I don't believe it, people aren't embarrassed about voting Tory or not voting Tory, they just despise them, quietly or loudly. A shy Reform vote is more likely, because Farage
*I know we have plenty of other uses for oil and gas besides combustion, but still.
EDIT: 8.8% for the Tories in the 2019 EU election.
Yes, it's easy to see where MRP struggles. They don't take make account of quality of candidate either. For example, they regard the LD as a shoo-in in my neighbouring constituency of Cheltenham but the incumbent Alex Chalk has such a good reputation I wouldn't want to be taking short odds on it.
Here in Winchcombe, I've had leaflets from the Tories, LDs and Greens. Nothing from Labour, although to my surprise I did see a Red poster in the High Street. The Greens, by the way, have a good candidate. The Reform guy is little more than token. Neither fact will help the LD's chances, but when I contacted the candidate, Cameron Thomas, a few days ago he reported the campaign to be 'going well'.
I am sure the LDs will get a good result here, but whether or not they win the cigar.....
There are MRPs. Projections. These are not the same thing.
Speaking of which, we NEED A POLL to see if Goodwin's mad outlier was indeed a mad outlier
I reckon most people would struggle to even name any other policies from any parties.
Not really sure what that means. If trained on previous elections there’s some tactical voting baked in.
A lot of people don't want to come out for Farage as supporting Reform is like saying toilet or serviette. Not the done thing.
So a lot of people will be saying Conservative, even to the pollsters, and perhaps believing it themselves. But if enough people start openly supporting Reform, the love that dare not speak its name - may become a lot more open.
People will be hosting coming out parties. Oh, you're Reform? Me too! I just couldn't admit my secret yearnings in a Reformophobic country... but now everyone's doing it... they will be having Reform Pride marches. Jackboots and all.
Err, well maybe not, but you get my point. Once the dam breaks, it breaks. And I get the sense that we're very close to that happening.
The alternative, I suppose, is that I ACTUALLY DO SOME WORK
*sigh*
Work it is
Later
I just can’t believe they were that f*88ing stupid
Gas is much more contentious.
As for stupidity, absolutely. Not only if there were any checks will you get picked up, but you can't even get life changing money on these novelty markets.
English law wisely leaves this question to the magistrate/jury. I think it will do the same here. There is a grey area between 'DYOR' and 'inside information'.
Against that their mad economics would probably mean interest rates of 50%.
Fans could be heard chanting about the killing of Serbians during the 2-2 draw in the Group B match.
The general secretary of the Football Association of Serbia, Jovan Surbatovic, has called for the strongest sanction to be taken.
He told the Serbian state-owned broadcaster RTS: "What happened is scandalous and we will ask [European governing body] Uefa for sanctions, even if it means not continuing the competition."
Serbia are in Group C and began the tournament with a 1-0 defeat by England on Sunday.
Surbatovic said that he was "sure they will be punished" following Uefa's decision on Wednesday to cancel the credentials of Kosovar journalist, Arlind Sadiku.
Sadiku made a nationalist double-handed eagle gesture towards Serbia fans during the game against England. The gesture mimics the eagle on Albania's national flag, which can inflame tensions between Serbian nationalists and ethnic Albanians, who make up the vast majority of Kosovo's population.
"We will demand from Uefa to punish the federations of both selections," Surbatovic added.
"We do not want to participate in that, but if Uefa does not punish them, we will think how will we proceed."
The BBC has contacted Serbia and Uefa for further comment.
Serbia were fined £12,250 after fans threw objects during the Englan
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cd110nzxwvko
Official, Jones a much sharper political operator than the whole Tory party.
https://x.com/owenjones84/status/1803739959179849954?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Can't think where they'd get the inspiration to do any such thing.
The Labour ones are solid red backgrounds and stand out much better.
I can't comment on the Tory ones or the LD ones as there aren't any.
Interest rates stay at 5.25%
UK interest rates have been left unchanged at 5.25% by the Bank of England.
The Bank has held rates at 5.25% for the seventh time, in an effort to combat inflation, leading to higher mortgage repayments but also higher savings rates.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c033rlenvjet