This is literally the director of the entire Tory field operation standing aside 2 weeks from polling day. Total unprecedented meltdown. WhatsApp burning up with completely apoplectic Tories
This election is absolutely hilarious, most entertaining in years.
IF Reform do maintain their streak (I don't think they will, but let's speculate) and the conservatives are reduced to below 100 seats, we've all talked about what then likely happens with a Tory-Reform reverse takeover. Seems pretty likely. But what then happens with the never-Farage Tories?
Let's also say the Lib Dems do spectacularly well and have 45 to 50 seats.
We hit a fork in the road where party realignments potentially mean HM opposition is up for grabs. Do those one nation Tories (and there are still a few quiet remainers in there) look to join the Lib Dems, where they could depending on numbers make up a combined opposition? Would the Lib Dems take them? Or do they do what the GOP moderates did and reconcile themselves to denying the evidence of their eyes and ears and loving Nigel Farage?
If the Tories and Reform merged as their Canadian cousins did in 2003 most Tories would join with Farage.
However yes a few of the most moderate Canadian Tories joined the Canadian Liberals back then and some One Nation ex Remainer Tories and Cameroons would likely go LD
I agree. Local dynamics would also play a role in their choice, in the absence of PR.
What are the odds on the Tories switching to support PR?
Well, the Liberals switched to supporting it just after they were in a position to do something about it, so it would fit in with history.
Notionally, Reform back PR too. We'll see how long that lasts if they become the official opposition (or the leading right-of-centre party).
Breaking - the IOW East Primary Campaign has, contrary to expectations and the MRPs, chosen the Green Party candidate as it's recommended 'People's Champion'. I expect this reflects some combination of her active engagement in the process - whereas both Labour and LibDem were warned off by their HQs - and her better performance in the hustings.
The Primary Campaign will now try and energise non-Tory support behind the Green. Given that polls suggest Labour is the challenger, and the Primary Campaign managed to engage 1,000 voters of whom about 850 took part in the selection - suggests that it will struggle to make the Green Party the challenger to the Tories, and increases the chance of either a Tory hold or a surprise Reform win, depending on how the last two weeks of the campaign go.
On what issues does David Cameron differ from the Lib Dems in 2024?
He wants less public spending and is lower tax.
If there was a realignment centre right ex Remainer Tories like him joining the LDs would push it right and some of the social democracts in turn would likely leave the LDs for Labour or the Greens
If only there was an electoral system where politicians could join a party they believed in and people could vote positively rather than to keep people out.
This is literally the director of the entire Tory field operation standing aside 2 weeks from polling day. Total unprecedented meltdown. WhatsApp burning up with completely apoplectic Tories
Thinking about it. this is actually bad for the anti-Tory candidates. A strong Reform showing here will hurt the Tories. The SDM is trying to shore up the Tory vote, I would guess.
Two more leaflets in my Conservative/Lib Dem marginal. Both Royal Mail deliveries - Green and Reform. Reform goes on the topic immigration near exclusively. Generic, but with the local candidate's name added to the top. Their message is simple but practically weak. They note: "Only Reform UK will turn the boats back to France..." Working in the field of maritime security research I know that this is (a) impractical and (b) very questionable legally, especially as 'pushed back boats' risks occupants throwing themselves in to the sea which then becomes a search and rescue operation under international law. This emphasis on getting the quick headline and highlighting approaches that simply will not work really frustrates me.
The purpose of Reform policies isn't to provide practical or even plausible solutions; it's to get the country's morons to vote Reform.
Maybe this has already been noted here, but the Tories sending out an advert about how "betting on Labour" is always a loss may be a bit.... in poor taste?
Sums up their campaign. Which must be the worst in living memory. Indeed, since modern campaigning began frankly.
Betting metaphors always fail when people think they are doing badly and to carry on as-is means going broke. Which is why you will often see poker players do all in shoves particularly if behind in tourney games and getting eaten alive by the blinds. Which is a pretty good metaphor for how people are feeling with respects to the cost of living crisis. I'm going to go broke with the Tories anyway, might as well take a punt on something different.
Of course, many of them will be putting their chips on Reform...
Off topic, can anyone yet explain why Doug Burgum is favourite by some distance to be the GOP's nominee for Vice President ?
Because he's a nobody.
Trump does want anyone who might either compete with him or look more impressive than him.
He also seems to be rich.
Yes - he's a very successful businessman. Which ought to make him less likely a pick ?
IMO, Vance probably ought to be favourite, as he's a pretty good huckster, and has been determinedly abasing himself towards Trump. He'd actually bring some extra pizazz to the ticket without being too threatening to the great leader, or his ego.
Off topic, can anyone yet explain why Doug Burgum is favourite by some distance to be the GOP's nominee for Vice President ?
Because there's been a huge administrative blunder and they think he's actually Dan Burgon, and they can't believe their luck getting someone of his intellectual pedigree.
Trump likes him. There's some theory floating around that Trump wants someone who can help govern - so needs some experience. Burgum has been a governor iirc. Also I think someone in NY Times was saying he has the "right look" which in tv-obsessed trump's mind is super important.
And of course one of the other leading veep candidates shot a dog.
Plane-painters, two women aged 22 and 28, have been arrested for criminal damage and “interference with the use of national infrastructure”. That second offence sounds like it might come with a substantial sentence on conviction.
Two planes were covered in orange paint, on the private aviation ramp at Stansted.
Yep, breaking into airfield is going to get a severe punishment.
Off topic, can anyone yet explain why Doug Burgum is favourite by some distance to be the GOP's nominee for Vice President ?
Because there's been a huge administrative blunder and they think he's actually Dan Burgon, and they can't believe their luck getting someone of his intellectual pedigree.
Trump likes him. There's some theory floating around that Trump wants someone who can help govern - so needs some experience. Burgum has been a governor iirc. Also I think someone in NY Times was saying he has the "right look" which in tv-obsessed trump's mind is super important.
And of course one of the other leading veep candidates shot a dog.
If she doesn't get VP, then Surrey police might have a vacancy for her.
Nothing that Mr Eagles hasn’t said on here before! Perhaps that’s why he’s not standing?
I realised over twenty years ago that me becoming an MP would be a bad idea because I couldn't afford my shoes on an MP's salary of my sense of humour which is a mixture of Jimmy Carr and a fourteen year old schoolboy.
Nothing that Mr Eagles hasn’t said on here before! Perhaps that’s why he’s not standing?
I realised over twenty years ago that me becoming an MP would be a bad idea because I couldn't afford my shoes on a MP's salary of my sense of humour which is a mixture of Jimmy Carr and a fourteen year old schoolboy.
Ha ha. Did you see the Tom Brady roast on Netflix? Jimmy Carr was writing for that, some utterly vicious jokes.
Off topic, can anyone yet explain why Doug Burgum is favourite by some distance to be the GOP's nominee for Vice President ?
Because he's a nobody.
Trump does want anyone who might either compete with him or look more impressive than him.
He also seems to be rich.
Yes - he's a very successful businessman. Which ought to make him less likely a pick ?
IMO, Vance probably ought to be favourite, as he's a pretty good huckster, and has been determinedly abasing himself towards Trump. He'd actually bring some extra pizazz to the ticket without being too threatening to the great leader, or his ego.
Vance on Trump a few years ago:
“Fellow Christians, everyone is watching us. When we apologize for this man, lord help us.”
“I go back and forth between thinking Trump might be a cynical asshole like Nixon who wouldn’t be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he might be America’s Hitler,”
Good job Trump doesnt have a wafer thin ego or bear grudges.
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
I know the line was at least back at Rugby in the west midlands. If the troops pull back to Kenilworth you'll know there's real panic !
Rugby is normally marginal, Kenilworth and Stratford on Avon the last lines of defence in Warwickshire
Rugby certainly isn't now "normally marginal". In the previous three elections it was an average of 14.5% safer than the national gap between Labour and Conservatives.
Plane-painters, two women aged 22 and 28, have been arrested for criminal damage and “interference with the use of national infrastructure”. That second offence sounds like it might come with a substantial sentence on conviction.
Two planes were covered in orange paint, on the private aviation ramp at Stansted.
Time for some extraordinary rendition to Diego Garcia, The Pitcairn Islands, or Glasgow.
Not Glasgow, please. We have enough trouble with orangemen without importing orange women.
The Daily Mail attacking Reform? Now I don't know what to think!
Scottish Daily Mail. No love for Reform.
This is a full-blown bar fight. The Tories are throwing red meat at their client newspaper in a desperate attempt to not have Ross embarrassed by being defeated
Cathedral (well OK, abbey): check Orchards, Vineyards or Cattle: check Rugby clubs: check Steep hills: sort of...in the distance Fuck off great big yellow diamond signboards: check
The town of Tewkesbury itself is not really in the Cotswolds. It's at the southern end of the Vale of Evesham. It's flat, low, and the rivers Severn and Avon meet there. The consequent flooding problems mean you have to be careful when talking about 'the boat people'.
The rest of the constituency is mostly classic Cotswolds and Tory strength resides in the many small villages tucked away off the main drags. It's Leave territory on the whole, but not extremely so, and not really ideal for Reform. Their Candidate didn't get his nomination papers in until the last minute which may explain why he didn't run his sumary statement through the spelling and grammar checker.
Nothing that Mr Eagles hasn’t said on here before! Perhaps that’s why he’s not standing?
I realised over twenty years ago that me becoming an MP would be a bad idea because I couldn't afford my shoes on a MP's salary of my sense of humour which is a mixture of Jimmy Carr and a fourteen year old schoolboy.
Ha ha. Did you see the Tom Brady roast on Netflix? Jimmy Carr was writing for that, some utterly vicious jokes.
Two more leaflets in my Conservative/Lib Dem marginal. Both Royal Mail deliveries - Green and Reform. Reform goes on the topic immigration near exclusively. Generic, but with the local candidate's name added to the top. Their message is simple but practically weak. They note: "Only Reform UK will turn the boats back to France..." Working in the field of maritime security research I know that this is (a) impractical and (b) very questionable legally, especially as 'pushed back boats' risks occupants throwing themselves in to the sea which then becomes a search and rescue operation under international law. This emphasis on getting the quick headline and highlighting approaches that simply will not work really frustrates me.
The purpose of Reform policies isn't to provide practical or even plausible solutions; it's to get the country's morons to vote Reform.
Off topic, can anyone yet explain why Doug Burgum is favourite by some distance to be the GOP's nominee for Vice President ?
Because he's a nobody.
Trump does want anyone who might either compete with him or look more impressive than him.
He also seems to be rich.
Yes - he's a very successful businessman. Which ought to make him less likely a pick ?
IMO, Vance probably ought to be favourite, as he's a pretty good huckster, and has been determinedly abasing himself towards Trump. He'd actually bring some extra pizazz to the ticket without being too threatening to the great leader, or his ego.
Vance on Trump a few years ago:
“Fellow Christians, everyone is watching us. When we apologize for this man, lord help us.”
“I go back and forth between thinking Trump might be a cynical asshole like Nixon who wouldn’t be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he might be America’s Hitler,”
Good job Trump doesnt have a wafer thin ego or bear grudges.
Trump loves previous opponents who go on to abase themselves before him. Boosts his ego.
And the demonstration of infinitely flexible principles is also a positive.
And just like that The Crow Road, bookshop of Arundel, is live.
These days that's a photo of a street in a typical rock solid Labour seat. Tempora mutantur nos et mutamur in illis. Is the Duke of Norfolk flying the hammer and sickle?
Off topic, can anyone yet explain why Doug Burgum is favourite by some distance to be the GOP's nominee for Vice President ?
Because he's a nobody.
Trump does want anyone who might either compete with him or look more impressive than him.
He also seems to be rich.
Yes - he's a very successful businessman. Which ought to make him less likely a pick ?
IMO, Vance probably ought to be favourite, as he's a pretty good huckster, and has been determinedly abasing himself towards Trump. He'd actually bring some extra pizazz to the ticket without being too threatening to the great leader, or his ego.
Vance on Trump a few years ago:
“Fellow Christians, everyone is watching us. When we apologize for this man, lord help us.”
“I go back and forth between thinking Trump might be a cynical asshole like Nixon who wouldn’t be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he might be America’s Hitler,”
Good job Trump doesnt have a wafer thin ego or bear grudges.
Trump loves previous opponents who go on to abase themselves before him. Boosts his ego.
Thinking about it. this is actually bad for the anti-Tory candidates. A strong Reform showing here will hurt the Tories. The SDM is trying to shore up the Tory vote, I would guess.
"Lizzie's in a box" is apparently the favourite chant of the euroscots, don't know enough about Scotland to understand the implications for this constituency.
On topic: I guess the probable Labour overstatement in the MRPs etc is down to how well they scored in 2019. They picked up the anti-Tory vote almost everywhere, with a relatively close vote to the Tories nationally. Of course, the extra was thinly-spread and of no electoral use, but as a starting point for this year, it puts them ahead of the LibDems in many “Tory” areas.
It’s driving through into tactical voting guides too (understandably enough): South Shropshire had Lab and LibDems neck and neck in 2019, but had a two-term LD incumbent 1997-2005 who’s standing again now, and close seconds in 05 and 10. Instinctively, it *feels* more LibDemmy. But the tactical voting guides all say Lab or too close to call.
I suspect the same would be true in North Shropshire, if the LD by-election victory (by a locally-active, now frontbench MP) hadn’t trumped 2019
Thanks Harris.
That's a good point you make about voting guides generally, but i note tactical.vote has got Tewkesbury right.
Shame on Scottish fans, if you think insulting people with disabilities is fun then give your head a fucking wobble.
Scotland fans have been filmed chanting a song celebrating the death of the late Queen ahead of the Prince of Wales’ visit to Germany.
Fans staying in Düsseldorf during the European Championship sang “Lizzie’s in a box” while others in Frankfurt chanted Harry Kane “licks windows on the bus” when they met English fans in the city.
My area, which used to be Fareham (Suella) was reorganised into Fareham & Waterlooville (Suella is candidate) and Hamble Valley. In both the polling indicates that the Tory could be beaten if the electorate knew whether to vote Labour or LibDem. The tactical vote website https://stopthetories.vote/ can't make a recommendation for either yet, but in Hamble Valley the LibDems look best placed according to https://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2024/06/lib-dems-and-reform-uk-gain-ground-in-eastleigh-and-hamble-valley/ "In Hamble Valley, the Lib Dem candidate Prad Bains has taken another 1% away from Labour, bringing him within 5% of Conservative candidate Paul Holmes, Eastleigh’s former MP" I haven't looked at the odds for these two seats, but it could get interesting if a primary challenger emerges.
Hamble Valley looks interesting. Any more info ?
LDs are 9/1 on Betfair, which seems a tad long ?
I've just retrieved the election literature from the er recycling and I see The Lib Dems claim they have 17 councillors to the Tories 10 and that 'Labour has publicly admitted they can't win Hamble Valley at this election. Our area is on their list of seats where they won't campaign to win and they are telling their activists to go to Southampton.' The Tory is Paul Holmes ex MP for Eastleigh who has decided he has a better chance in Hamble Valley.
My area, which used to be Fareham (Suella) was reorganised into Fareham & Waterlooville (Suella is candidate) and Hamble Valley. In both the polling indicates that the Tory could be beaten if the electorate knew whether to vote Labour or LibDem. The tactical vote website https://stopthetories.vote/ can't make a recommendation for either yet, but in Hamble Valley the LibDems look best placed according to https://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2024/06/lib-dems-and-reform-uk-gain-ground-in-eastleigh-and-hamble-valley/ "In Hamble Valley, the Lib Dem candidate Prad Bains has taken another 1% away from Labour, bringing him within 5% of Conservative candidate Paul Holmes, Eastleigh’s former MP" I haven't looked at the odds for these two seats, but it could get interesting if a primary challenger emerges.
Hamble Valley looks interesting. Any more info ?
LDs are 9/1 on Betfair, which seems a tad long ?
I've just retrieved the election literature from the er recycling and I see The Lib Dems claim they have 17 councillors to the Tories 10 and that 'Labour has publicly admitted they can't win Hamble Valley at this election. Our area is on their list of seats where they won't campaign to win and they are telling their activists to go to Southampton.' The Tory is Paul Holmes ex MP for Eastleigh who has decided he has a better chance in Hamble Valley.
Oh, just noticed another Tory leaflet saying 'The Choice is Labour or Conservative' and 'The only way to stop Keir Starmer is to vote Conservative in Hamble Valley' Yes, that should stop him ;-)
Lots of hypotheticals and I am still of the view that despite lots of excitement in the campaign the Conservatives will remain second on votes and seats, over 100 MPs.
As a self-declared moderate Conservative who also voted Brexit I think there is a chance I would be homeless with a Farage-led combined right-wing party. I don't particularly like labels, but I guess I am closer to the Nick Timothy perspective on conservativism, that was in part captured by May. I am thus not pro-EU for the Lib Dems and strongly dislike the crude language and over-simplification of individual's like Farage. Moreover, economically Farage is more Thatcherite than me. In short, I don't know what I'd do!!
The swingback phenomenon is long standing and well documented. It seems particularly to benefit Conservatives, but we also saw some evidence of it when Labour were in power.
The idea is that ahead of an election people flirt with change and sending a message to the government. They’re fed up. But when the actual election day looms they consider their options and opt for the devil they know. So you get swingback to the incumbent.
This year lots of people are flirting with change. In fact the vast majority of the electorate, both in E&W and Scotland. But they are not just looking at Labour and the Lib Dems, the “established opposition parties”. They’re also looking at Reform and Green.
Over the next two weeks will people start to focus their minds and end up voting more conservatively? Yes, I think they will. It usually happens. But will the beneficiaries in England and Wales be the Tories? Perhaps not exclusively. Starmer and Labour are so much part of the furniture, and what they offer is so non-alarming and dull, that I wonder if they could be the main beneficiaries. A safe option, while still representing change.
This is my photo quota for today, the outfit worn by 22 year old professional cyclist Kate Richardson of the "Lifeplus Wahoo" Tour of Britain team, when she was knocked off her cycle whilst training on June 4th by a man who forced his SUV past her at speed on a blind bend on a single track road near Holmfirth.
The collision fractured her shoulder, which is borderline ABH / GBH - charging standard for "causing serious injury by ... cycling/driving" is equivalent to GBH. GBH starts with 'broken bones'.
The man then drove away, but later returned, stopped his vehicle, got out, verbally abused her, then got back in his vehicle and drove off *. This one may get tracked down and prosecuted, but widespread non (or minimal) enforcement imo contributes to a culture.
A longer comment than usual; I've been reflecting on @Cyclefree 's piece from a few days ago about threats of, or actual, violence against women, and how in some circumstances it is deemed either acceptable or tolerable. Others' language / behaviour can create a culture making threats or violence by perpetrators seem acceptable.
Lunging with a vehicle at a woman (ignoring the accompanying man) riding a cycle when in a couple is not unknown. I've even seen one report where a man started beating up someone he had pushed off their cycle, then stopped and apologised because he thought she was a man.
There's some weird mental gymnastics going on. There are other categories - targeting women riding cycles is one of them.
Here's another one from April 2024 where the 'offence' by the 20 year old female victim was to wave a tailgating Land Rover driver to not be so close. Again the pattern is stops vehicle, gets out, assaults woman. **
Breaking - the mystery second Tory better is the wife of the Tory campaigns director!
What the f is wrong with these people - they can’t be winning a life changing amount of money so why risk the hassle which anyone with a brain cell would understand would come if found out.
The only thing I can think of is that they are a bit needy and wanted to show people they know the winning betting slip so they can demonstrate their amazing insight and knowledge as it cannot be the money.
Be fair, maybe the Tory MP wasn't kooking forward to claiming Jobseekers Allowance in a couple of weeks time? 😉
Clearly not very bright, a cash bet on the high street and at worse they'd have been looking at CCTV, a bit more care and they'd have spread it over a few shops.
People do it all the time. People on big salaries get caught doing minor scams - because they think they can get away with it.
It’s looking now as if Reform are moving into second place, in voting intentions.
Too bloody true.
It's one of the enduring themes of the Post Office Scandal that they just thought they wouldn't get caught.
If Reform get to go, the Greens should too - Reform might be outpolling us but we do have a large number of cllrs and an MP. And then I guess you have to invite Plaid. And then it's no longer QT, is it? So, whilst it is annoying from my point of view as well, I can understand why they'd just go "four biggest parties in Parliament"
My area, which used to be Fareham (Suella) was reorganised into Fareham & Waterlooville (Suella is candidate) and Hamble Valley. In both the polling indicates that the Tory could be beaten if the electorate knew whether to vote Labour or LibDem. The tactical vote website https://stopthetories.vote/ can't make a recommendation for either yet, but in Hamble Valley the LibDems look best placed according to https://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2024/06/lib-dems-and-reform-uk-gain-ground-in-eastleigh-and-hamble-valley/ "In Hamble Valley, the Lib Dem candidate Prad Bains has taken another 1% away from Labour, bringing him within 5% of Conservative candidate Paul Holmes, Eastleigh’s former MP" I haven't looked at the odds for these two seats, but it could get interesting if a primary challenger emerges.
Hamble Valley looks interesting. Any more info ?
LDs are 9/1 on Betfair, which seems a tad long ?
I've just retrieved the election literature from the er recycling and I see The Lib Dems claim they have 17 councillors to the Tories 10 and that 'Labour has publicly admitted they can't win Hamble Valley at this election. Our area is on their list of seats where they won't campaign to win and they are telling their activists to go to Southampton.' The Tory is Paul Holmes ex MP for Eastleigh who has decided he has a better chance in Hamble Valley.
Oh, just noticed another Tory leaflet saying 'The Choice is Labour or Conservative' and 'The only way to stop Keir Starmer is to vote Conservative in Hamble Valley' Yes, that should stop him ;-)
Off topic, can anyone yet explain why Doug Burgum is favourite by some distance to be the GOP's nominee for Vice President ?
Because he's a nobody.
Trump does want anyone who might either compete with him or look more impressive than him.
He also seems to be rich.
Yes - he's a very successful businessman. Which ought to make him less likely a pick ?
IMO, Vance probably ought to be favourite, as he's a pretty good huckster, and has been determinedly abasing himself towards Trump. He'd actually bring some extra pizazz to the ticket without being too threatening to the great leader, or his ego.
Vance on Trump a few years ago:
“Fellow Christians, everyone is watching us. When we apologize for this man, lord help us.”
“I go back and forth between thinking Trump might be a cynical asshole like Nixon who wouldn’t be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he might be America’s Hitler,”
Good job Trump doesnt have a wafer thin ego or bear grudges.
Trump loves previous opponents who go on to abase themselves before him. Boosts his ego.
And the demonstration of infinitely flexible principles is also a positive.
Vance has abased himself to unprecedented levels frankly.
But as I said before one day he will be president imho.
The Lib Dems have flattered to deceive at every general election in my memory, but if they were to win Tewkesbury then this election would break that sequence.
I think the Reform surge in the polling indicates a rootless electorate, willing to be persuaded to vote for any one of a range of parties, but not yet particularly convinced by any.
I expect Labour to poll well north of 10% here, despite not trying, and for the Tory to be saved as a consequence.
The incumbent Tory, Laurence Robertson, has a part-time job on the Betting and Gaming Council, so, one never knows, he might be a lurker here.
He's be very welcome, LP, especially if he told us he's bet on himself!
Right now it is a very confused picture as to whether the Tories are ahead of Reform or vice versa.
This comes at a point where millions of postal votes will be being cast by a section of the electorate that leans heavily towards elderly Tory/Reform voters. Most of these votes will have been cast before it becomes clear who is the stronger in many seats.
The worst situation for the right is a relatively even split between Tory and Reform and that appears to be where we are right now. The right needs one or the other to become clearly dominant in the next week or so if it is going to derail a Labour super majority.
There is an excellent re enactment of the battle of Tewkesbury every July I used to go to when I lived in Herefordshire which re enactors from around the world took part in.
On the political battle of Tewkesbury I expect a Tory hold. The opposition vote will be split between Labour and LD and Tewkesbury voted Leave unlikely Cheltenham and some other Cotswold seats that voted Remain and are better prospects for the yellows
I've been to it, Hyufd, and in fact the picture above is from the re-enactment.
I believe that is the punters to the left, and bookies to the right.
If Reform get to go, the Greens should too - Reform might be outpolling us but we do have a large number of cllrs and an MP. And then I guess you have to invite Plaid. And then it's no longer QT, is it? So, whilst it is annoying from my point of view as well, I can understand why they'd just go "four biggest parties in Parliament"
Worth counting up the number of QT appearances by Farage over the last few years vs those accorded to Plaid or the Greens.
Right now it is a very confused picture as to whether the Tories are ahead of Reform or vice versa.
This comes at a point where millions of postal votes will be being cast by a section of the electorate that leans heavily towards elderly Tory/Reform voters. Most of these votes will have been cast before it becomes clear who is the stronger in many seats.
The worst situation for the right is a relatively even split between Tory and Reform and that appears to be where we are right now. The right needs one or the other to become clearly dominant in the next week or so if it is going to derail a Labour super majority.
My best case scenario is that the vote shares of both the Tories and Reform are just so inefficiently distributed across parliamentary seats that it fucks them both. Lets say both of them get between 15% - 20% nationally, under FPTP, we could actually see neither party winning any seats. Is that likely, of course not, but it would be hilarious.
Cathedral (well OK, abbey): check Orchards, Vineyards or Cattle: check Rugby clubs: check Steep hills: sort of...in the distance Fuck off great big yellow diamond signboards: check
Great checklist - pretty much explains the liberal anomaly of NE Fife. Liberalism survives in those parts of the country left broadly unchanged by the industrial revolution.
The LDs were also second in Chelsea and Fulham in 2019 and Cities of London and Westminster and do well in spa towns, holding Bath and with Tunbridge Wells, Cheltenham and Harrogate and Knaresborough on their target list.
Basically along with having a Waitrose and Gales, having a LD MP or the LDs second to the Tories at the last general election is a good indicator of poshness
Yes, it's a peculiar thing that the LDs do well in Spa towns.
Ferrari to launch first electric car – with a premium price
Luxury automaker pushes into EV market despite doubts about demand
Ferrari is preparing to launch its first electric car with a price tag of more than €500,000 (£422,000).
The luxury Italian brand, best known for making petrol sports cars with roaring engines, is preparing to launch the new model next year.
It will be one of the most expensive in the marque’s line-up, with the headline price tag not including extras that can add up to 20pc to the final cost, according to Reuters.
That would easily put it towards the top end of the carmaker’s current offering, reflecting the higher costs of making battery-powered EVs.
The average sale price of a new Ferrari is currently around €350,000.
2nd bit of feedback from Wantage and Didcot ( @Andy_Cooke and @NickPalmer ). Again another member of the campaign I am involved in who are non political but very interested in who gets elected for obvious reasons. The current Tory MP has been a champion for our cause.
"I have had campaign leaflets from Labour and the SDP, plus several leaflets from the Liberal Democrats.
The Liberal Democrats are making quite in effort in Wantage, and seem to regard this as one of their target seats."
When the Tory obituary for this GE gets written, A fair deal will be how "unnecessary" the Tory behaviour has been. The Tories were supposed to be the party from the top draw, even if you disagreed with them, they had a certain style. What we seem to be getting now, particularly since Johnson, is a party consisting of Flashman or even Dick Dastardly.
Tewkesbury is interesting. Bishops Cleeve is the largest single settlement in the constituency and is solid Lib Dem, The area around Winchcombe is leaning Lib Dem from Tory, but the Town of Tewkesbury and the suburbs of Gloucester are much more mixed, and as PtP knows, that is where the Labour vote might be that stops the Lib Dem juggernaut. I think it is down to a few hundred votes. With the Lib Dems still only at 12-14% in the national polls though, the difference between taking seats like Tewkesbury and getting 70 seats and failing in Tewkesbury and getting 35 seats is really in the hands of maybe only 50,000-60,000 voters in those seats. Its going to be close.
I have fought the Tories in elections in the Liberal interest since I was a boy, and the lesson I have learned is that they are very hard to kill. Unless they are in a coffin with a stake through the heart, they can still come back at you. The question now though, is has the Flashman Tory Party finally blown it? Sure, they deserve defeat, but I have been in so many elections where we lose or only scrape home narrowly to feel anything but tentative about these Tory wipe.out predictions.
As I keep saying, elections have to be fought, which is why I think Farage will be yet another flash in the pan for populism (not to mention how unpopular Brexit now is). The Tories still know more about their voters than Farage does, can still get campaigners and still have millions of voters.
So, the obituary may yet end up as "to be continued". Mind you they really will need to have the Dick Dastardly faction thoroughly purged.
This is my photo quota for today, the outfit worn by 22 year old professional cyclist Kate Richardson of the "Lifeplus Wahoo" Tour of Britain team, when she was knocked off her cycle whilst training on June 4th by a man who forced his SUV past her at speed on a blind bend on a single track road near Holmfirth.
The collision fractured her shoulder, which is borderline ABH / GBH - charging standard for "causing serious injury by ... cycling/driving" is equivalent to GBH. GBH starts with 'broken bones'.
The man then drove away, but later returned, stopped his vehicle, got out, verbally abused her, then got back in his vehicle and drove off *. This one may get tracked down and prosecuted, but widespread non (or minimal) enforcement imo contributes to a culture.
A longer comment than usual; I've been reflecting on @Cyclefree 's piece from a few days ago about threats of, or actual, violence against women, and how in some circumstances it is deemed either acceptable or tolerable. Others' language / behaviour can create a culture making threats or violence by perpetrators seem acceptable.
Lunging with a vehicle at a woman (ignoring the accompanying man) riding a cycle when in a couple is not unknown. I've even seen one report where a man started beating up someone he had pushed off their cycle, then stopped and apologised because he thought she was a man.
There's some weird mental gymnastics going on. There are other categories - targeting women riding cycles is one of them.
Here's another one from April 2024 where the 'offence' by the 20 year old female victim was to wave a tailgating Land Rover driver to not be so close. Again the pattern is stops vehicle, gets out, assaults woman. **
Interesting. My only anecdotal evidence of this is that my partner gets more close passes than I do, but then she has the irritating and dangerous habit of always cycling in the door zone. My very rough assessment is that women are more inclined to do this than men, and so there is a gender aspect to collisions from behind.
If you ever visit somewhere like the Farne islands it's useful putting some big eyes on the back of your hat to deter the Terns. I have a theory that the same could work with drivers.
The Lib Dems have flattered to deceive at every general election in my memory, but if they were to win Tewkesbury then this election would break that sequence.
I think the Reform surge in the polling indicates a rootless electorate, willing to be persuaded to vote for any one of a range of parties, but not yet particularly convinced by any.
I expect Labour to poll well north of 10% here, despite not trying, and for the Tory to be saved as a consequence.
The incumbent Tory, Laurence Robertson, has a part-time job on the Betting and Gaming Council, so, one never knows, he might be a lurker here.
They didn't flatter to deceive in 97 so I assume you are just a mere whippersnapper @LostPassword. As the winning results were coming in several of us seasoned campaigners were going 'Where the ..... is that?'
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
I know the line was at least back at Rugby in the west midlands. If the troops pull back to Kenilworth you'll know there's real panic !
Rugby is normally marginal, Kenilworth and Stratford on Avon the last lines of defence in Warwickshire
Rugby certainly isn't now "normally marginal". In the previous three elections it was an average of 14.5% safer than the national gap between Labour and Conservatives.
Rugby was Labour from 1966 to 1979 and 1950 to 1959 and Rugby and Kenilworth was Labour in 1997 and 2001.
It is a classic bellweather seat, only reason it was a bit safer for the Tories in 2019 and 2017 was its strong pro Brexit support. However much of that support is now going Reform giving Labour a chance again
Ferrari to launch first electric car – with a premium price
Luxury automaker pushes into EV market despite doubts about demand
Ferrari is preparing to launch its first electric car with a price tag of more than €500,000 (£422,000).
The luxury Italian brand, best known for making petrol sports cars with roaring engines, is preparing to launch the new model next year.
It will be one of the most expensive in the marque’s line-up, with the headline price tag not including extras that can add up to 20pc to the final cost, according to Reuters.
That would easily put it towards the top end of the carmaker’s current offering, reflecting the higher costs of making battery-powered EVs.
The average sale price of a new Ferrari is currently around €350,000.
Campaign update from my constitutional around the ward. Couple of Labour placards out now (recycled from the locals) nothing more from Greens, nobody else bothering. First bit of literature arrived from Clive Lewis telling me those naughty Tories are second and i mustn't waste my vote on no hoper Greens. *strokes chin thoughtfully*
Since the election was called the LDs have delivered in excess of 100,000 leaflets, knocked on over 10,000 doors and put up over 150 posterboards.
Angela Richardson, the Tory MP has a Facebook page (worth a read) giving a daily update on her campaign. There appears to be about 10 of them doing a cafe/pub crawl.
Ferrari to launch first electric car – with a premium price
Luxury automaker pushes into EV market despite doubts about demand
Ferrari is preparing to launch its first electric car with a price tag of more than €500,000 (£422,000).
The luxury Italian brand, best known for making petrol sports cars with roaring engines, is preparing to launch the new model next year.
It will be one of the most expensive in the marque’s line-up, with the headline price tag not including extras that can add up to 20pc to the final cost, according to Reuters.
That would easily put it towards the top end of the carmaker’s current offering, reflecting the higher costs of making battery-powered EVs.
The average sale price of a new Ferrari is currently around €350,000.
"Post Office betrays postmasters yet again: bungling Post Office publishes names and addresses of more than 550 people wrongfully convicted in the Horizon scandal on its website in 'horrific' potential data breach"
Ferrari to launch first electric car – with a premium price
Luxury automaker pushes into EV market despite doubts about demand
Ferrari is preparing to launch its first electric car with a price tag of more than €500,000 (£422,000).
The luxury Italian brand, best known for making petrol sports cars with roaring engines, is preparing to launch the new model next year.
It will be one of the most expensive in the marque’s line-up, with the headline price tag not including extras that can add up to 20pc to the final cost, according to Reuters.
That would easily put it towards the top end of the carmaker’s current offering, reflecting the higher costs of making battery-powered EVs.
The average sale price of a new Ferrari is currently around €350,000.
Tory director of campaigning being looked into over election bet
The BBC can reveal that the Conservative Party’s Director of Campaigning Tony Lee is also being looked into by the Gambling Commission over an alleged bet relating to the timing of the general election.
The BBC reported earlier this morning that Mr Lee – who, we understand, took a leave of absence from his job yesterday afternoon – is married to the Conservative candidate who is also being looked into by the betting industry regulator. Laura Saunders, the party’s candidate in Bristol North West has worked for the Tories since 2015.
She is married to Lee. It is not known when the bet she placed was made or for how much money. Nor is it known when Lee placed a bet and for how much money. Laura Saunders and Tony Lee has been approached for comment by the BBC and have not replied. A Conservative Party spokesman told the BBC: “We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals. As the Gambling Commission is an independent body, it wouldn’t be proper to comment further, until any process is concluded.”
Yeah, I'm starting to believe. I think it's over for the Tories. I'm getting on LDs most seats without Labour. The polling this week, imo, has seen the Tory decline accelerate. It's falling apart very quickly now.
Since the election was called the LDs have delivered in excess of 100,000 leaflets, knocked on over 10,000 doors and put up over 150 posterboards.
Angela Richardson, the Tory MP has a Facebook page (worth a read) giving a daily update on her campaign. There appears to be about 10 of them doing a cafe/pub crawl.
Fair play. Guildford's a great place for a pub crawl.
When the Tory obituary for this GE gets written, A fair deal will be how "unnecessary" the Tory behaviour has been. The Tories were supposed to be the party from the top draw, even if you disagreed with them, they had a certain style. What we seem to be getting now, particularly since Johnson, is a party consisting of Flashman or even Dick Dastardly.
Tewkesbury is interesting. Bishops Cleeve is the largest single settlement in the constituency and is solid Lib Dem, The area around Winchcombe is leaning Lib Dem from Tory, but the Town of Tewkesbury and the suburbs of Gloucester are much more mixed, and as PtP knows, that is where the Labour vote might be that stops the Lib Dem juggernaut. I think it is down to a few hundred votes. With the Lib Dems still only at 12-14% in the national polls though, the difference between taking seats like Tewkesbury and getting 70 seats and failing in Tewkesbury and getting 35 seats is really in the hands of maybe only 50,000-60,000 voters in those seats. Its going to be close.
I have fought the Tories in elections in the Liberal interest since I was a boy, and the lesson I have learned is that they are very hard to kill. Unless they are in a coffin with a stake through the heart, they can still come back at you. The question now though, is has the Flashman Tory Party finally blown it? Sure, they deserve defeat, but I have been in so many elections where we lose or only scrape home narrowly to feel anything but tentative about these Tory wipe.out predictions.
As I keep saying, elections have to be fought, which is why I think Farage will be yet another flash in the pan for populism (not to mention how unpopular Brexit now is). The Tories still know more about their voters than Farage does, can still get campaigners and still have millions of voters.
So, the obituary may yet end up as "to be continued". Mind you they really will need to have the Dick Dastardly faction thoroughly purged.
The Tories must wish they'd never clapped eyes on Boris. Literally every problem they now face - up to and including their possible extinction - is due to something done by that man.
The swingback phenomenon is long standing and well documented. It seems particularly to benefit Conservatives, but we also saw some evidence of it when Labour were in power.
The idea is that ahead of an election people flirt with change and sending a message to the government. They’re fed up. But when the actual election day looms they consider their options and opt for the devil they know. So you get swingback to the incumbent.
This year lots of people are flirting with change. In fact the vast majority of the electorate, both in E&W and Scotland. But they are not just looking at Labour and the Lib Dems, the “established opposition parties”. They’re also looking at Reform and Green.
Over the next two weeks will people start to focus their minds and end up voting more conservatively? Yes, I think they will. It usually happens. But will the beneficiaries in England and Wales be the Tories? Perhaps not exclusively. Starmer and Labour are so much part of the furniture, and what they offer is so non-alarming and dull, that I wonder if they could be the main beneficiaries. A safe option, while still representing change.
Swingback, but to the main opposition party.
Just a thought.
Not a ridiculous idea, but on the whole I disagree.
Labour are still an unknown quantity. The small c conservative reflex will be to stick with the incumbent government.
And this is definitely a CHANGE election, but one where Labour aren't offering much in the way of change. That's why Reform are catching so much attention.
Labour are stuck between two stools. I think their campaign is in real trouble. They really need to come out and rally an anti-Farage vote, but they also need to offer a positive and optimistic vision for people to vote for. But it's too late for Starmer to pull that out of the hat. He doesn't do improv, I don't think he does optimism. It was seen as too risky when they drew up the campaign plan.
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
I know the line was at least back at Rugby in the west midlands. If the troops pull back to Kenilworth you'll know there's real panic !
Rugby is normally marginal, Kenilworth and Stratford on Avon the last lines of defence in Warwickshire
Rugby certainly isn't now "normally marginal". In the previous three elections it was an average of 14.5% safer than the national gap between Labour and Conservatives.
Rugby was Labour from 1966 to 1979 and 1950 to 1959 and Rugby and Kenilworth was Labour in 1997 and 2001.
It is a classic bellweather seat, only reason it was a bit safer for the Tories in 2019 and 2017 was its strong pro Brexit support. However much of that support is now going Reform giving Labour a chance again
The Lib Dems have flattered to deceive at every general election in my memory, but if they were to win Tewkesbury then this election would break that sequence.
I think the Reform surge in the polling indicates a rootless electorate, willing to be persuaded to vote for any one of a range of parties, but not yet particularly convinced by any.
I expect Labour to poll well north of 10% here, despite not trying, and for the Tory to be saved as a consequence.
The incumbent Tory, Laurence Robertson, has a part-time job on the Betting and Gaming Council, so, one never knows, he might be a lurker here.
They didn't flatter to deceive in 97 so I assume you are just a mere whippersnapper @LostPassword. As the winning results were coming in several of us seasoned campaigners were going 'Where the ..... is that?'
I am always sceptical about the LDs - their wave always seems to crest and break before polling day - however, they are running the bast campaign by far in my opinion (taking ground game and national activities into account). This time the role of flattering to deceive looks likely to be taken by Reform UK though even I am factoring in victories for Farage and Anderson.
Tory director of campaigning being looked into over election bet
The BBC can reveal that the Conservative Party’s Director of Campaigning Tony Lee is also being looked into by the Gambling Commission over an alleged bet relating to the timing of the general election.
The BBC reported earlier this morning that Mr Lee – who, we understand, took a leave of absence from his job yesterday afternoon – is married to the Conservative candidate who is also being looked into by the betting industry regulator. Laura Saunders, the party’s candidate in Bristol North West has worked for the Tories since 2015.
She is married to Lee. It is not known when the bet she placed was made or for how much money. Nor is it known when Lee placed a bet and for how much money. Laura Saunders and Tony Lee has been approached for comment by the BBC and have not replied. A Conservative Party spokesman told the BBC: “We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals. As the Gambling Commission is an independent body, it wouldn’t be proper to comment further, until any process is concluded.”
The swingback phenomenon is long standing and well documented. It seems particularly to benefit Conservatives, but we also saw some evidence of it when Labour were in power.
The idea is that ahead of an election people flirt with change and sending a message to the government. They’re fed up. But when the actual election day looms they consider their options and opt for the devil they know. So you get swingback to the incumbent.
This year lots of people are flirting with change. In fact the vast majority of the electorate, both in E&W and Scotland. But they are not just looking at Labour and the Lib Dems, the “established opposition parties”. They’re also looking at Reform and Green.
Over the next two weeks will people start to focus their minds and end up voting more conservatively? Yes, I think they will. It usually happens. But will the beneficiaries in England and Wales be the Tories? Perhaps not exclusively. Starmer and Labour are so much part of the furniture, and what they offer is so non-alarming and dull, that I wonder if they could be the main beneficiaries. A safe option, while still representing change.
Swingback, but to the main opposition party.
Just a thought.
Not a ridiculous idea, but on the whole I disagree.
Labour are still an unknown quantity. The small c conservative reflex will be to stick with the incumbent government.
And this is definitely a CHANGE election, but one where Labour aren't offering much in the way of change. That's why Reform are catching so much attention.
Labour are stuck between two stools. I think their campaign is in real trouble. They really need to come out and rally an anti-Farage vote, but they also need to offer a positive and optimistic vision for people to vote for. But it's too late for Starmer to pull that out of the hat. He doesn't do improv, I don't think he does optimism. It was seen as too risky when they drew up the campaign plan.
Polling day can't come quickly enough for Starmer, he's holding the ming vase on a tightrope right now.
Astonishing news that the CCHQ director of campaigns has now taken a leave of absence while his wife - a Con candidate - is being investigated for placing a bet on the date of the election.
It encapsulates both the incompetence and corruption at the heart of this sorry government (or indeed their contempt for democracy). This is the sort of thing that can cut through as well. They deserve the kicking that is hopefully coming to them.
If Reform get to go, the Greens should too - Reform might be outpolling us but we do have a large number of cllrs and an MP. And then I guess you have to invite Plaid. And then it's no longer QT, is it? So, whilst it is annoying from my point of view as well, I can understand why they'd just go "four biggest parties in Parliament"
Worth counting up the number of QT appearances by Farage over the last few years vs those accorded to Plaid or the Greens.
Oh, I completely agree - he is a creation of the media and BBC (similarly to how Johnson was via HIGNFY), but I think in this instance it is at least a reasonable position.
Edited: so we'll just get it from Saudi Arabia instead. Obviously way better for the planet that way.
The Supreme Court in the UK have become very activist.
The Supreme Court judges did not rule that Surrey County Council should reject the proposal for new oil wells but that it should have considered the downstream emissions.
This is precisely the sort of ruling that means any sort of large infrastructure project costs at least £50 Billion more than it should.
Ferrari to launch first electric car – with a premium price
Luxury automaker pushes into EV market despite doubts about demand
Ferrari is preparing to launch its first electric car with a price tag of more than €500,000 (£422,000).
The luxury Italian brand, best known for making petrol sports cars with roaring engines, is preparing to launch the new model next year.
It will be one of the most expensive in the marque’s line-up, with the headline price tag not including extras that can add up to 20pc to the final cost, according to Reuters.
That would easily put it towards the top end of the carmaker’s current offering, reflecting the higher costs of making battery-powered EVs.
The average sale price of a new Ferrari is currently around €350,000.
Tory director of campaigning being looked into over election bet
The BBC can reveal that the Conservative Party’s Director of Campaigning Tony Lee is also being looked into by the Gambling Commission over an alleged bet relating to the timing of the general election.
The BBC reported earlier this morning that Mr Lee – who, we understand, took a leave of absence from his job yesterday afternoon – is married to the Conservative candidate who is also being looked into by the betting industry regulator. Laura Saunders, the party’s candidate in Bristol North West has worked for the Tories since 2015.
She is married to Lee. It is not known when the bet she placed was made or for how much money. Nor is it known when Lee placed a bet and for how much money. Laura Saunders and Tony Lee has been approached for comment by the BBC and have not replied. A Conservative Party spokesman told the BBC: “We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals. As the Gambling Commission is an independent body, it wouldn’t be proper to comment further, until any process is concluded.”
Tory director of campaigning being looked into over election bet
The BBC can reveal that the Conservative Party’s Director of Campaigning Tony Lee is also being looked into by the Gambling Commission over an alleged bet relating to the timing of the general election.
The BBC reported earlier this morning that Mr Lee – who, we understand, took a leave of absence from his job yesterday afternoon – is married to the Conservative candidate who is also being looked into by the betting industry regulator. Laura Saunders, the party’s candidate in Bristol North West has worked for the Tories since 2015.
She is married to Lee. It is not known when the bet she placed was made or for how much money. Nor is it known when Lee placed a bet and for how much money. Laura Saunders and Tony Lee has been approached for comment by the BBC and have not replied. A Conservative Party spokesman told the BBC: “We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals. As the Gambling Commission is an independent body, it wouldn’t be proper to comment further, until any process is concluded.”
The swingback phenomenon is long standing and well documented. It seems particularly to benefit Conservatives, but we also saw some evidence of it when Labour were in power.
The idea is that ahead of an election people flirt with change and sending a message to the government. They’re fed up. But when the actual election day looms they consider their options and opt for the devil they know. So you get swingback to the incumbent.
This year lots of people are flirting with change. In fact the vast majority of the electorate, both in E&W and Scotland. But they are not just looking at Labour and the Lib Dems, the “established opposition parties”. They’re also looking at Reform and Green.
Over the next two weeks will people start to focus their minds and end up voting more conservatively? Yes, I think they will. It usually happens. But will the beneficiaries in England and Wales be the Tories? Perhaps not exclusively. Starmer and Labour are so much part of the furniture, and what they offer is so non-alarming and dull, that I wonder if they could be the main beneficiaries. A safe option, while still representing change.
Swingback, but to the main opposition party.
Just a thought.
Not a ridiculous idea, but on the whole I disagree.
Labour are still an unknown quantity. The small c conservative reflex will be to stick with the incumbent government.
And this is definitely a CHANGE election, but one where Labour aren't offering much in the way of change. That's why Reform are catching so much attention.
Labour are stuck between two stools. I think their campaign is in real trouble. They really need to come out and rally an anti-Farage vote, but they also need to offer a positive and optimistic vision for people to vote for. But it's too late for Starmer to pull that out of the hat. He doesn't do improv, I don't think he does optimism. It was seen as too risky when they drew up the campaign plan.
I don't know - I think I agree with @TimS - it seems clear that even many typically Tory voters are exasperated with the party and how it has governed, and I am worried about the polling day cold feet of many typically Labour voters who may be flirting with Greens (from my pov) worrying a "Vote for Greens is a Vote for Tories" and will get squeezed. I think there is a good argument being made here that Labour are so clearly going to get a majority and the Tories are in such trouble that in this election you don't have to necessarily vote tactically to kick out a Tory government - but with those numbers around how many voters want the Tories to get 0 seats, and how I'm sure some constituents with certain MPs have added desires to kick them out in a cross party manner, I do wonder if Labour could even exceed the polls. But we'll have to see!
Comments
Notionally, Reform back PR too. We'll see how long that lasts if they become the official opposition (or the leading right-of-centre party).
The Primary Campaign will now try and energise non-Tory support behind the Green. Given that polls suggest Labour is the challenger, and the Primary Campaign managed to engage 1,000 voters of whom about 850 took part in the selection - suggests that it will struggle to make the Green Party the challenger to the Tories, and increases the chance of either a Tory hold or a surprise Reform win, depending on how the last two weeks of the campaign go.
@michaelgove reacts to news that three people with links to the prime minister allegedly used inside information to bet on the election date
https://x.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1803717436593619212
And just like that The Crow Road, bookshop of Arundel, is live.
Of course, many of them will be putting their chips on Reform...
Which ought to make him less likely a pick ?
IMO, Vance probably ought to be favourite, as he's a pretty good huckster, and has been determinedly abasing himself towards Trump.
He'd actually bring some extra pizazz to the ticket without being too threatening to the great leader, or his ego.
And of course one of the other leading veep candidates shot a dog.
Edited: so we'll just get it from Saudi Arabia instead. Obviously way better for the planet that way.
I couldn't afford my shoes on an MP's salaryof my sense of humour which is a mixture of Jimmy Carr and a fourteen year old schoolboy.“Fellow Christians, everyone is watching us. When we apologize for this man, lord help us.”
“I go back and forth between thinking Trump might be a cynical asshole like Nixon who wouldn’t be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he might be America’s Hitler,”
Good job Trump doesnt have a wafer thin ego or bear grudges.
This is a full-blown bar fight. The Tories are throwing red meat at their client newspaper in a desperate attempt to not have Ross embarrassed by being defeated
The rest of the constituency is mostly classic Cotswolds and Tory strength resides in the many small villages tucked away off the main drags. It's Leave territory on the whole, but not extremely so, and not really ideal for Reform. Their Candidate didn't get his nomination papers in until the last minute which may explain why he didn't run his sumary statement through the spelling and grammar checker.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXZPblYs-Bc
Boosts his ego.
And the demonstration of infinitely flexible principles is also a positive.
Best wishes to Crow Road books.
That's a good point you make about voting guides generally, but i note tactical.vote has got Tewkesbury right.
Scotland fans have been filmed chanting a song celebrating the death of the late Queen ahead of the Prince of Wales’ visit to Germany.
Fans staying in Düsseldorf during the European Championship sang “Lizzie’s in a box” while others in Frankfurt chanted Harry Kane “licks windows on the bus” when they met English fans in the city.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2024/06/20/scotland-fans-mock-death-late-queen-elizabeth-euro-2024/
The Lib Dems claim they have 17 councillors to the Tories 10 and that 'Labour has publicly admitted they can't win Hamble Valley at this election. Our area is on their list of seats where they won't campaign to win and they are telling their activists to go to Southampton.'
The Tory is Paul Holmes ex MP for Eastleigh who has decided he has a better chance in Hamble Valley.
https://x.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1803693974583923158
Yes, that should stop him ;-)
That's one vote for the Tories in Sheffield Hallam.
My vote is 100% influenced by wanting to keep His Excellency The Right Honourable The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton as Foreign Secretary.
As a self-declared moderate Conservative who also voted Brexit I think there is a chance I would be homeless with a Farage-led combined right-wing party. I don't particularly like labels, but I guess I am closer to the Nick Timothy perspective on conservativism, that was in part captured by May. I am thus not pro-EU for the Lib Dems and strongly dislike the crude language and over-simplification of individual's like Farage. Moreover, economically Farage is more Thatcherite than me. In short, I don't know what I'd do!!
Labour swingback.
The swingback phenomenon is long standing and well documented. It seems particularly to benefit Conservatives, but we also saw some evidence of it when Labour were in power.
The idea is that ahead of an election people flirt with change and sending a message to the government. They’re fed up. But when the actual election day looms they consider their options and opt for the devil they know. So you get swingback to the incumbent.
This year lots of people are flirting with change. In fact the vast majority of the electorate, both in E&W and Scotland. But they are not just looking at Labour and the Lib Dems, the “established opposition parties”. They’re also looking at Reform and Green.
Over the next two weeks will people start to focus their minds and end up voting more conservatively? Yes, I think they will. It usually happens. But will the beneficiaries in England and Wales be the Tories? Perhaps not exclusively. Starmer and Labour are so much part of the furniture, and what they offer is so non-alarming and dull, that I wonder if they could be the main beneficiaries. A safe option, while still representing change.
Swingback, but to the main opposition party.
Just a thought.
The collision fractured her shoulder, which is borderline ABH / GBH - charging standard for "causing serious injury by ... cycling/driving" is equivalent to GBH. GBH starts with 'broken bones'.
The man then drove away, but later returned, stopped his vehicle, got out, verbally abused her, then got back in his vehicle and drove off *. This one may get tracked down and prosecuted, but widespread non (or minimal) enforcement imo contributes to a culture.
A longer comment than usual; I've been reflecting on @Cyclefree 's piece from a few days ago about threats of, or actual, violence against women, and how in some circumstances it is deemed either acceptable or tolerable. Others' language / behaviour can create a culture making threats or violence by perpetrators seem acceptable.
Lunging with a vehicle at a woman (ignoring the accompanying man) riding a cycle when in a couple is not unknown. I've even seen one report where a man started beating up someone he had pushed off their cycle, then stopped and apologised because he thought she was a man.
There's some weird mental gymnastics going on. There are other categories - targeting women riding cycles is one of them.
Here's another one from April 2024 where the 'offence' by the 20 year old female victim was to wave a tailgating Land Rover driver to not be so close. Again the pattern is stops vehicle, gets out, assaults woman. **
* https://road.cc/content/news/british-pro-cyclist-hit-driver-country-lane-308683
** https://road.cc/content/news/female-cyclist-followed-and-assaulted-road-rage-driver-308883
It's one of the enduring themes of the Post Office Scandal that they just thought they wouldn't get caught.
But as I said before one day he will be president imho.
This comes at a point where millions of postal votes will be being cast by a section of the electorate that leans heavily towards elderly Tory/Reform voters. Most of these votes will have been cast before it becomes clear who is the stronger in many seats.
The worst situation for the right is a relatively even split between Tory and Reform and that appears to be where we are right now. The right needs one or the other to become clearly dominant in the next week or so if it is going to derail a Labour super majority.
I believe that is the punters to the left, and bookies to the right.
Something in the water?
Ferrari to launch first electric car – with a premium price
Luxury automaker pushes into EV market despite doubts about demand
Ferrari is preparing to launch its first electric car with a price tag of more than €500,000 (£422,000).
The luxury Italian brand, best known for making petrol sports cars with roaring engines, is preparing to launch the new model next year.
It will be one of the most expensive in the marque’s line-up, with the headline price tag not including extras that can add up to 20pc to the final cost, according to Reuters.
That would easily put it towards the top end of the carmaker’s current offering, reflecting the higher costs of making battery-powered EVs.
The average sale price of a new Ferrari is currently around €350,000.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/19/ferraris-first-electric-car-cost-more-than-500000/
I mean an electric Ferrari, what next, a prostitute without any orifices?
2nd bit of feedback from Wantage and Didcot ( @Andy_Cooke and @NickPalmer ). Again another member of the campaign I am involved in who are non political but very interested in who gets elected for obvious reasons. The current Tory MP has been a champion for our cause.
"I have had campaign leaflets from Labour and the SDP, plus several leaflets from the Liberal Democrats.
The Liberal Democrats are making quite in effort in Wantage, and seem to regard this as one of their target seats."
(A slightly weird claim to 'fame'...)
Tewkesbury is interesting. Bishops Cleeve is the largest single settlement in the constituency and is solid Lib Dem, The area around Winchcombe is leaning Lib Dem from Tory, but the Town of Tewkesbury and the suburbs of Gloucester are much more mixed, and as PtP knows, that is where the Labour vote might be that stops the Lib Dem juggernaut. I think it is down to a few hundred votes. With the Lib Dems still only at 12-14% in the national polls though, the difference between taking seats like Tewkesbury and getting 70 seats and failing in Tewkesbury and getting 35 seats is really in the hands of maybe only 50,000-60,000 voters in those seats. Its going to be close.
I have fought the Tories in elections in the Liberal interest since I was a boy, and the lesson I have learned is that they are very hard to kill. Unless they are in a coffin with a stake through the heart, they can still come back at you. The question now though, is has the Flashman Tory Party finally blown it? Sure, they deserve defeat, but I have been in so many elections where we lose or only scrape home narrowly to feel anything but tentative about these Tory wipe.out predictions.
As I keep saying, elections have to be fought, which is why I think Farage will be yet another flash in the pan for populism (not to mention how unpopular Brexit now is). The Tories still know more about their voters than Farage does, can still get campaigners and still have millions of voters.
So, the obituary may yet end up as "to be continued". Mind you they really will need to have the Dick Dastardly faction thoroughly purged.
Interesting. My only anecdotal evidence of this is that my partner gets more close passes than I do, but then she has the irritating and dangerous habit of always cycling in the door zone. My very rough assessment is that women are more inclined to do this than men, and so there is a gender aspect to collisions from behind.
If you ever visit somewhere like the Farne islands it's useful putting some big eyes on the back of your hat to deter the Terns. I have a theory that the same could work with drivers.
You'll be selling Crow maps, then
CROW Act 2000 - Countryside and Rights of Way.
It is a classic bellweather seat, only reason it was a bit safer for the Tories in 2019 and 2017 was its strong pro Brexit support. However much of that support is now going Reform giving Labour a chance again
EVs are just faster.
Of course environmental regs probably play a part.
*strokes chin thoughtfully*
Since the election was called the LDs have delivered in excess of 100,000 leaflets, knocked on over 10,000 doors and put up over 150 posterboards.
Angela Richardson, the Tory MP has a Facebook page (worth a read) giving a daily update on her campaign. There appears to be about 10 of them doing a cafe/pub crawl.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13547517/Post-Office-betrays-postmasters-Fury-bungling-Post-Office-publishes-names-addresses-nearly-600-people-wrongfully-convicted-Horizon-scandal-website-horrific-potential-data-breach.html
The BBC can reveal that the Conservative Party’s Director of Campaigning Tony Lee is also being looked into by the Gambling Commission over an alleged bet relating to the timing of the general election.
The BBC reported earlier this morning that Mr Lee – who, we understand, took a leave of absence from his job yesterday afternoon – is married to the Conservative candidate who is also being looked into by the betting industry regulator. Laura Saunders, the party’s candidate in Bristol North West has worked for the Tories since 2015.
She is married to Lee. It is not known when the bet she placed was made or for how much money. Nor is it known when Lee placed a bet and for how much money. Laura Saunders and Tony Lee has been approached for comment by the BBC and have not replied. A Conservative Party spokesman told the BBC: “We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals. As the Gambling Commission is an independent body, it wouldn’t be proper to comment further, until any process is concluded.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cd119p9een9t
The polling this week, imo, has seen the Tory decline accelerate.
It's falling apart very quickly now.
Labour are still an unknown quantity. The small c conservative reflex will be to stick with the incumbent government.
And this is definitely a CHANGE election, but one where Labour aren't offering much in the way of change. That's why Reform are catching so much attention.
Labour are stuck between two stools. I think their campaign is in real trouble. They really need to come out and rally an anti-Farage vote, but they also need to offer a positive and optimistic vision for people to vote for. But it's too late for Starmer to pull that out of the hat. He doesn't do improv, I don't think he does optimism. It was seen as too risky when they drew up the campaign plan.
It encapsulates both the incompetence and corruption at the heart of this sorry government (or indeed their contempt for democracy). This is the sort of thing that can cut through as well. They deserve the kicking that is hopefully coming to them.
This is precisely the sort of ruling that means any sort of large infrastructure project costs at least £50 Billion more than it should.
But even Ferrari can't fight the inevitable.
They're already slower than a Ford pickup...
https://www.motor1.com/news/723624/ford-lightning-supertruck-pikes-peak-powertrain/