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The Battle of Tewkesbury – politicalbetting.com
The Battle of Tewkesbury – politicalbetting.com
On the 4th May 1471 the Yorkist forces of Edward IV defeated the Lancastrian Army of Edward, Prince of Westminster in one of the most decisive battles of the Wars Of The Roses. Although slightly outnumbered, the success of the White Rose gang was no great surprise and it is likely winning punters got little better than evens on their wagers. Shrewd punters on the forthcoming election battle of Tewkesbury on July 4th 2024 may however do slightly better, and I shall explain why.
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The BBC can reveal this morning that the Conservative candidate being looked into by the Gambling Commission over a bet relating to the timing of the general election is married to the party’s Director of Campaigns.
Laura Saunders, the party’s candidate in Bristol North West, has worked for the Tories since 2015.
It is not known when the bet was placed or for how much money.
She is married to Tony Lee, who is the Conservative Party’s Director of Campaigns.
Saunders has been approached for comment by the BBC and has not replied.
A Conservative Party spokesman told the BBC: “We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals. As the Gambling Commission is an independent body, it wouldn’t be proper to comment further, until any process is concluded.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cd119p9een9t
Good morning everyone, and thanks for the header.
Now the morons are actually throwing paint on planes
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/20/just-stop-oil-targets-taylor-swift-airfield/
Hope they realise that’s a million or two in damage they’ve caused there, and a few weeks they won’t be able to use the plane. Can’t wait for the civil lawsuit.
The only thing I can think of is that they are a bit needy and wanted to show people they know the winning betting slip so they can demonstrate their amazing insight and knowledge as it cannot be the money.
Nick Robbo got quite shirty.
I was prepared to believe some Tory candidates would have randomly bet on this rather improbable date but this news if true stretches the long arm of coincidence way beyond the point of dislocation.
Bet placed on LibDems.
(And PtP moved to Gloucestershire ... well I never! Always had him down as Metropolitan Elite personified. Very interesting observations from him, as always.)
Together with an attitude that laws, regulations, ethics are for the 'little people'.
They really should have employed someone like Cyclefree to explain issues such as insider trading and fraud.
In addition to a H&S manager to maintain order in Downing Street and CCHQ during covid.
Now we’re dealing not with people who might have heard a nudge or a rumour, but who actually had a role in influencing the decision, which would be the criminal standard.
Looks like we might end up seeing CCHQ minutes read out at the magistrates’ court, and we’ll find out the timing of the decision for 4th July.
Barclay has no rivals in international boring competitions but could he also be leader of the post corn law rump, the valiant 50 or so?
These are just Throwaway remarks, suitable for Gold Cup day.
I am reminded that PtP and I had a conversation about whether Tewkesbury would be a LibDem target back in 2019:
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2159977#Comment_2159977
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Let's also say the Lib Dems do spectacularly well and have 45 to 50 seats.
We hit a fork in the road where party realignments potentially mean HM opposition is up for grabs. Do those one nation Tories (and there are still a few quiet remainers in there) look to join the Lib Dems, where they could depending on numbers make up a combined opposition? Would the Lib Dems take them? Or do they do what the GOP moderates did and reconcile themselves to denying the evidence of their eyes and ears and loving Nigel Farage?
New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Savanta 14-18 Jun (changes vs 24-28 May):
Lab ~ 38% (+1)
SNP ~ 33% (nc)
Con ~ 15% (-2)
LD ~ 7% (nc)
https://x.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1803691113330377038?s=19
He seems to have made the unlikely transition from Tory MP to decent bloke in the years since
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Best
Similar to Tewksbury, Labour aren't trying here - non-local candidate. Also Dorset Council fell to the LDs in the locals.
Tory incumbent Simon Hoare is clearly the favourite but Reform have a candidate likely to peel off a sizeable chunk of hard right Tory support.
I'd say it's an 80% Con, 20% LD chance. DYOR
Essentially the Tories will do relatively well in places with 1930s housing and large paved front drives.
If Labour win a big majority on July 4 the party could “rig the system” to create a “forever government”, Michael Gove has claimed. "
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/20/general-election-latest-news-sunak-starmer-farage/
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1803699718507123176
It seems safe to say it is going to be a Labour victory.
Meanwhile I begin to wonder about my own seat, which the MRPs have as a Labour gain but I was anticipating a Tory hold. The Tory candidate is able and relatively moderate whereas the Labour candidate is dire and was imposed on them by HQ. At the hustings the Tory is coming across well, but so is the Reform woman, despite some of her views, and the YouGov MRP, which builds on a local sample, gives Reform a shout. In an hour's time the relatively energetic primary campaign declares its 'people's champion' to defeat the Tories, likely to be the Labour candidate, and it will be interesting to see how that goes down.
Tartare for now.
Cathedral (well OK, abbey): check
Orchards, Vineyards or Cattle: check
Rugby clubs: check
Steep hills: sort of...in the distance
Fuck off great big yellow diamond signboards: check
Lab 43
Con 18
Ref 18
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/
Would repay the favour if there was any value in my local constituency but there’s not
It’s driving through into tactical voting guides too (understandably enough): South Shropshire had Lab and LibDems neck and neck in 2019, but had a two-term LD incumbent 1997-2005 who’s standing again now, and close seconds in 05 and 10. Instinctively, it *feels* more LibDemmy. But the tactical voting guides all say Lab or too close to call.
I suspect the same would be true in North Shropshire, if the LD by-election victory (by a locally-active, now frontbench MP) hadn’t trumped 2019
On the actual point though, it would be crazy if the Tories weren’t pulling all resources from hopeless seats.
But Conservative politicians seem to think it is only the 'little people' who have obligations and responsibilities.
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1803699718507123176
Too little, too late?
In my area the Lib Dems have been saying it's not a Labour target, but the Labour office was buzzing on a Saturday morning while their office was closed. May not be the same in Tewkesbury of course.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GwQW3KW3DCc
https://www.winchcombewelcomeswalkers.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Cotswolds-Map.jpg
I would like to see them, but I do not recall any examples.
It’s looking now as if Reform are moving into second place, in voting intentions.
I think the Reform surge in the polling indicates a rootless electorate, willing to be persuaded to vote for any one of a range of parties, but not yet particularly convinced by any.
I expect Labour to poll well north of 10% here, despite not trying, and for the Tory to be saved as a consequence.
The incumbent Tory, Laurence Robertson, has a part-time job on the Betting and Gaming Council, so, one never knows, he might be a lurker here.
Explains why unindustrialised areas of the East Midlands and Eastern England vote Reform rather than Lib Dem.
And dates back further still to the Danelaw vs the Anglo Saxon kingdoms.
On the political battle of Tewkesbury I expect a Tory hold. The opposition vote will be split between Labour and LD and Tewkesbury voted Leave unlikely Cheltenham and some other Cotswold seats that voted Remain and are better prospects for the yellows
Then if PR comes in they can form a "centre-right" coalition LD/Con/Reform as per rest of Europe.
My personal theory is that the South West London LD heartland is a metastasis of Wessex, bringing its political norms and sporting preferences with it - it's the bit of the capital closest to the M3 and M4 so it's where people from those regions choose to live when they move to London.
Basically along with having a Waitrose and Gales, having a LD MP or the LDs second to the Tories at the last general election is a good indicator of poshness