Torridge and Tavistock (scene of the rishi sheep feeding debacle last week) is knife edge. Oddschecker has con 1/3 lab 9/4 which looks too short/long. But big Geoff Cox (for it is he) has strong incumbency energy.
Yougov has the Tories clear there, with the LibDems in second and a strong showing by Reform, putting Labour fourth. Could be a Tory hold on a low-ish percentage?
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I know one of those seats that's been earmarked as savable. Does anyone know the other?
South Holland and the Deepings is probably the savable seat.
Cathedral (well OK, abbey): check Orchards, Vineyards or Cattle: check Rugby clubs: check Steep hills: sort of...in the distance Fuck off great big yellow diamond signboards: check
Great checklist - pretty much explains the liberal anomaly of NE Fife. Liberalism survives in those parts of the country left broadly unchanged by the industrial revolution.
And before that, perhaps equally importantly, untouched by the open field system and then enclosure. Regions, like Western France with its Macron-voting bocage, that never had lord-serf social relations.
Explains why unindustrialised areas of the East Midlands and Eastern England vote Reform rather than Lib Dem.
And dates back further still to the Danelaw vs the Anglo Saxon kingdoms.
And it's notable that the Lib Dem parts of London are where all the rugby clubs are.
My personal theory is that the South West London LD heartland is a metastasis of Wessex, bringing its political norms and sporting preferences with it - it's the bit of the capital closest to the M3 and M4 so it's where people from those regions choose to live when they move to London.
Cathedral (well OK, abbey): check Orchards, Vineyards or Cattle: check Rugby clubs: check Steep hills: sort of...in the distance Fuck off great big yellow diamond signboards: check
Great checklist - pretty much explains the liberal anomaly of NE Fife. Liberalism survives in those parts of the country left broadly unchanged by the industrial revolution.
The LDs were also second in Chelsea and Fulham in 2019 and Cities of London and Westminster and do well in spa towns, holding Bath and with Tunbridge Wells, Cheltenham and Harrogate and Knaresborough on their target list.
Basically along with having a Waitrose and Gales, having a LD MP or the LDs second to the Tories at the last general election is a good indicator of poshness
IF Reform do maintain their streak (I don't think they will, but let's speculate) and the conservatives are reduced to below 100 seats, we've all talked about what then likely happens with a Tory-Reform reverse takeover. Seems pretty likely. But what then happens with the never-Farage Tories?
Let's also say the Lib Dems do spectacularly well and have 45 to 50 seats.
We hit a fork in the road where party realignments potentially mean HM opposition is up for grabs. Do those one nation Tories (and there are still a few quiet remainers in there) look to join the Lib Dems, where they could depending on numbers make up a combined opposition? Would the Lib Dems take them? Or do they do what the GOP moderates did and reconcile themselves to denying the evidence of their eyes and ears and loving Nigel Farage?
We're seeing evidence for that already, with former Tories from Heseltine through Stewart voting LibDem and Soubry switching straight to Labour. The pro-Brexit moderate Tories will otherwise be homeless if things pan out as they currently look.
Meanwhile I begin to wonder about my own seat, which the MRPs have as a Labour gain but I was anticipating a Tory hold. The Tory candidate is able and relatively moderate whereas the Labour candidate is dire and was imposed on them by HQ. At the hustings the Tory is coming across well, but so is the Reform woman, despite some of her views, and the YouGov MRP, which builds on a local sample, gives Reform a shout. In an hour's time the relatively energetic primary campaign declares its 'people's champion' to defeat the Tories, likely to be the Labour candidate, and it will be interesting to see how that goes down.
Lib Dems would be happier displacing the moderate Conservatives on the centre-right than pretending they're centre/centre-left. Then if PR comes in they can form a "centre-right" coalition LD/Con/Reform as per rest of Europe.
LD forming any kind of coalition which includes Reform? I know one should never say never but... No. Not happening.
Hope they realise that’s a million or two in damage they’ve caused there, and a few weeks they won’t be able to use the plane. Can’t wait for the civil lawsuit.
Have there been any civil cases taken out in such circumstances?
I would like to see them, but I do not recall any examples.
Good question, but I don’t think we’ve seen this level of actual damage before. Most of the artworks attacked were behind glass. I think the usual assumption is that it’s not worth going after someone young and with no assets a court can order handed over, but I can well imagine an aviation operator being happy to throw quite a bit of cash at lawyers to make life hell for these people. Persuing them until bankruptcy would definitely screw up their lives for some time, and would send a signal to the others that you don’t mess with planes.
IF Reform do maintain their streak (I don't think they will, but let's speculate) and the conservatives are reduced to below 100 seats, we've all talked about what then likely happens with a Tory-Reform reverse takeover. Seems pretty likely. But what then happens with the never-Farage Tories?
Let's also say the Lib Dems do spectacularly well and have 45 to 50 seats.
We hit a fork in the road where party realignments potentially mean HM opposition is up for grabs. Do those one nation Tories (and there are still a few quiet remainers in there) look to join the Lib Dems, where they could depending on numbers make up a combined opposition? Would the Lib Dems take them? Or do they do what the GOP moderates did and reconcile themselves to denying the evidence of their eyes and ears and loving Nigel Farage?
We're seeing evidence for that already, with former Tories from Heseltine through Stewart voting LibDem and Soubry switching straight to Labour. The pro-Brexit moderate Tories will otherwise be homeless if things pan out as they currently look.
Meanwhile I begin to wonder about my own seat, which the MRPs have as a Labour gain but I was anticipating a Tory hold. The Tory candidate is able and relatively moderate whereas the Labour candidate is dire and was imposed on them by HQ. At the hustings the Tory is coming across well, but so is the Reform woman, despite some of her views, and the YouGov MRP, which builds on a local sample, gives Reform a shout. In an hour's time the relatively energetic primary campaign declares its 'people's champion' to defeat the Tories, likely to be the Labour candidate, and it will be interesting to see how that goes down.
Lib Dems would be happier displacing the moderate Conservatives on the centre-right than pretending they're centre/centre-left. Then if PR comes in they can form a "centre-right" coalition LD/Con/Reform as per rest of Europe.
The Lib Dems would never form a coalition with Reform. They are complete opposites on the political and social compass. It would be like Macron teaming up with Le Pen. Reform have more in common with Galloway, the Greens or the Corbynistas.
I can see them becoming orange book again though if there's an influx of never-Farage Tories.
Surely the health warning on betting based on Lib Dem leaflets is in even bigger than MRPs ? In my area the Lib Dems have been saying it's not a Labour target, but the Labour office was buzzing on a Saturday morning while their office was closed. May not be the same in Tewkesbury of course.
I would rely on the LD leaflet count more than the MRP. We don't waste leaflets on non targets. The most you will get is the Royal Mail delivery and possibly a national leaflet.
Cathedral (well OK, abbey): check Orchards, Vineyards or Cattle: check Rugby clubs: check Steep hills: sort of...in the distance Fuck off great big yellow diamond signboards: check
Great checklist - pretty much explains the liberal anomaly of NE Fife. Liberalism survives in those parts of the country left broadly unchanged by the industrial revolution.
And before that, perhaps equally importantly, untouched by the open field system and then enclosure. Regions, like Western France with its Macron-voting bocage, that never had lord-serf social relations.
Explains why unindustrialised areas of the East Midlands and Eastern England vote Reform rather than Lib Dem.
And dates back further still to the Danelaw vs the Anglo Saxon kingdoms.
And it's notable that the Lib Dem parts of London are where all the rugby clubs are.
My personal theory is that the South West London LD heartland is a metastasis of Wessex, bringing its political norms and sporting preferences with it - it's the bit of the capital closest to the M3 and M4 so it's where people from those regions choose to live when they move to London.
There are definitely a lot of emigres from south west London settled here in Dorset.
If Labour win a landslide and the Tories and ReformUK split the right of centre vote down the middle, Labour are actually better off with FPTP to keep their majority while the Tories would win more seats with PR
IF Reform do maintain their streak (I don't think they will, but let's speculate) and the conservatives are reduced to below 100 seats, we've all talked about what then likely happens with a Tory-Reform reverse takeover. Seems pretty likely. But what then happens with the never-Farage Tories?
Let's also say the Lib Dems do spectacularly well and have 45 to 50 seats.
We hit a fork in the road where party realignments potentially mean HM opposition is up for grabs. Do those one nation Tories (and there are still a few quiet remainers in there) look to join the Lib Dems, where they could depending on numbers make up a combined opposition? Would the Lib Dems take them? Or do they do what the GOP moderates did and reconcile themselves to denying the evidence of their eyes and ears and loving Nigel Farage?
If the Tories and Reform merged as their Canadian cousins did in 2003 most Tories would join with Farage.
However yes a few of the most moderate Canadian Tories joined the Canadian Liberals back then and some One Nation ex Remainer Tories and Cameroons would likely go LD
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
What this means is that the Tories have abandoned hope of winning any constituencies at all, and instead are focusing resources on “saving the seat” - a particularly valuable Georgian chair at CCHQ, which requires expert joinery so it can then be auctioned off as the party is finally dissolved
IF Reform do maintain their streak (I don't think they will, but let's speculate) and the conservatives are reduced to below 100 seats, we've all talked about what then likely happens with a Tory-Reform reverse takeover. Seems pretty likely. But what then happens with the never-Farage Tories?
Let's also say the Lib Dems do spectacularly well and have 45 to 50 seats.
We hit a fork in the road where party realignments potentially mean HM opposition is up for grabs. Do those one nation Tories (and there are still a few quiet remainers in there) look to join the Lib Dems, where they could depending on numbers make up a combined opposition? Would the Lib Dems take them? Or do they do what the GOP moderates did and reconcile themselves to denying the evidence of their eyes and ears and loving Nigel Farage?
If the Tories and Reform merged as their Canadian cousins did in 2003 most Tories would join with Farage.
However yes a few of the most moderate Canadian Tories joined the Canadian Liberals back then and some One Nation ex Remainer Tories and Cameroons would likely go LD
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
What this means is that the Tories have abandoned hope of winning any constituencies at all, and instead are focusing resources on “saving the seat” - a particularly valuable Georgian chair at CCHQ, which requires expert joinery so it can then be auctioned off as the party is finally dissolved
Cathedral (well OK, abbey): check Orchards, Vineyards or Cattle: check Rugby clubs: check Steep hills: sort of...in the distance Fuck off great big yellow diamond signboards: check
Great checklist - pretty much explains the liberal anomaly of NE Fife. Liberalism survives in those parts of the country left broadly unchanged by the industrial revolution.
The LDs were also second in Chelsea and Fulham in 2019 and Cities of London and Westminster and do well in spa towns, holding Bath and with Tunbridge Wells, Cheltenham and Harrogate and Knaresborough on their target list.
Basically along with having a Waitrose and Gales, having a LD MP or the LDs second to the Tories at the last general election is a good indicator of poshness
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
A managed retreat can turn into a rout if it is bungled, and this isn't going to do much good for the morale of Tory activists. But a lot depends on how the other side responds.
Tory candidate being looked into over election betting married to party's campaign director
The BBC can reveal this morning that the Conservative candidate being looked into by the Gambling Commission over a bet relating to the timing of the general election is married to the party’s Director of Campaigns.
Laura Saunders, the party’s candidate in Bristol North West, has worked for the Tories since 2015.
It is not known when the bet was placed or for how much money.
She is married to Tony Lee, who is the Conservative Party’s Director of Campaigns.
Saunders has been approached for comment by the BBC and has not replied.
A Conservative Party spokesman told the BBC: “We have been contacted by the Gambling Commission about a small number of individuals. As the Gambling Commission is an independent body, it wouldn’t be proper to comment further, until any process is concluded.”
Cathedral (well OK, abbey): check Orchards, Vineyards or Cattle: check Rugby clubs: check Steep hills: sort of...in the distance Fuck off great big yellow diamond signboards: check
Great checklist - pretty much explains the liberal anomaly of NE Fife. Liberalism survives in those parts of the country left broadly unchanged by the industrial revolution.
And before that, perhaps equally importantly, untouched by the open field system and then enclosure. Regions, like Western France with its Macron-voting bocage, that never had lord-serf social relations.
Explains why unindustrialised areas of the East Midlands and Eastern England vote Reform rather than Lib Dem.
And dates back further still to the Danelaw vs the Anglo Saxon kingdoms.
I guess the two are related as enclosure created a landless peasant class ripe for proletarianization as well as surplus capital to invest in factories. What I know of the history of St Andrews and its environs in NE Fife is that by the early 19th century the town was a complete backwater and by no means posh, it was run down and suffering from the fact that it was unplugged from the industrial wealth being created all around it. There were derelict buildings and rubbish uncollected in the crumbling medieval streets. Only later as the industrial areas suffered from increased global competition and knowledge industries became more important did St Andrews become posh and more prosperous than the surrounding areas. And it has maintained its links to pre-industrial traditions, from the various University rituals to the annual Lammas market and fair that still closes off the town's main streets every year.
Plane-painters, two women aged 22 and 28, have been arrested for criminal damage and “interference with the use of national infrastructure”. That second offence sounds like it might come with a substantial sentence on conviction.
Two planes were covered in orange paint, on the private aviation ramp at Stansted.
(And PtP moved to Gloucestershire ... well I never! Always had him down as Metropolitan Elite personified. Very interesting observations from him, as always.)
He has long maintained a country estate even while residing in the smoke...
That is closer to the truth than you might think, Scott, but I assure you I am mostly in the sticks these days.
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
What this means is that the Tories have abandoned hope of winning any constituencies at all, and instead are focusing resources on “saving the seat” - a particularly valuable Georgian chair at CCHQ, which requires expert joinery so it can then be auctioned off as the party is finally dissolved
That gives me a Proustian flashback to the first time as a small child I heard people talking about political parties and seats in an election. Probably 1983. I had similar visions to what you've just evoked.
IF Reform do maintain their streak (I don't think they will, but let's speculate) and the conservatives are reduced to below 100 seats, we've all talked about what then likely happens with a Tory-Reform reverse takeover. Seems pretty likely. But what then happens with the never-Farage Tories?
Let's also say the Lib Dems do spectacularly well and have 45 to 50 seats.
We hit a fork in the road where party realignments potentially mean HM opposition is up for grabs. Do those one nation Tories (and there are still a few quiet remainers in there) look to join the Lib Dems, where they could depending on numbers make up a combined opposition? Would the Lib Dems take them? Or do they do what the GOP moderates did and reconcile themselves to denying the evidence of their eyes and ears and loving Nigel Farage?
If the Tories and Reform merged as their Canadian cousins did in 2003 most Tories would join with Farage.
However yes a few of the most moderate Canadian Tories joined the Canadian Liberals back then and some One Nation ex Remainer Tories and Cameroons would likely go LD
What would Cameron himself do, I wonder?
Probably vote LD for his coalition partners but not campaign for them, Osborne's son is now LD I believe. John Major likely also goes Liberal.
Of other ex Tory leaders alive, IDS and Boris would all join up with Farage in such a scenario. If the Tories and ReformUK officially merged to form a new Conservative party Hague, Howard and May would also follow the Tory party with it as most likely would Sunak but be on the moderate wing of it
Plane-painters, two women aged 22 and 28, have been arrested for criminal damage and “interference with the use of national infrastructure”. That second offence sounds like it might come with a substantial sentence on conviction.
Two planes were covered in orange paint, on the private aviation ramp at Stansted.
Time for some extraordinary rendition to Diego Garcia, The Pitcairn Islands, or Glasgow.
On what issues does David Cameron differ from the Lib Dems in 2024?
Tax and spend. Lib Dem policies have always been more fiscally redistributive than the Tories and this time round they are significantly more so than Labour too. In 2010 the coalition austerity plan ended up with smaller cuts than either the Conservatives or the Labour manifesto.
IF Reform do maintain their streak (I don't think they will, but let's speculate) and the conservatives are reduced to below 100 seats, we've all talked about what then likely happens with a Tory-Reform reverse takeover. Seems pretty likely. But what then happens with the never-Farage Tories?
Let's also say the Lib Dems do spectacularly well and have 45 to 50 seats.
We hit a fork in the road where party realignments potentially mean HM opposition is up for grabs. Do those one nation Tories (and there are still a few quiet remainers in there) look to join the Lib Dems, where they could depending on numbers make up a combined opposition? Would the Lib Dems take them? Or do they do what the GOP moderates did and reconcile themselves to denying the evidence of their eyes and ears and loving Nigel Farage?
If the Tories and Reform merged as their Canadian cousins did in 2003 most Tories would join with Farage.
However yes a few of the most moderate Canadian Tories joined the Canadian Liberals back then and some One Nation ex Remainer Tories and Cameroons would likely go LD
Before discussing the death of the Tory Party, isn’t it necessary to consider the Councils, councillors, and mayoralties. They make it easier for even a tiny parliamentary rump to recover (and be seen to recover) than it would be otherwise.
On what issues does David Cameron differ from the Lib Dems in 2024?
He wants less public spending and is lower tax.
If there was a realignment centre right ex Remainer Tories like him joining the LDs would push it right and some of the social democracts in turn would likely leave the LDs for Labour or the Greens
IF Reform do maintain their streak (I don't think they will, but let's speculate) and the conservatives are reduced to below 100 seats, we've all talked about what then likely happens with a Tory-Reform reverse takeover. Seems pretty likely. But what then happens with the never-Farage Tories?
Let's also say the Lib Dems do spectacularly well and have 45 to 50 seats.
We hit a fork in the road where party realignments potentially mean HM opposition is up for grabs. Do those one nation Tories (and there are still a few quiet remainers in there) look to join the Lib Dems, where they could depending on numbers make up a combined opposition? Would the Lib Dems take them? Or do they do what the GOP moderates did and reconcile themselves to denying the evidence of their eyes and ears and loving Nigel Farage?
If the Tories and Reform merged as their Canadian cousins did in 2003 most Tories would join with Farage.
However yes a few of the most moderate Canadian Tories joined the Canadian Liberals back then and some One Nation ex Remainer Tories and Cameroons would likely go LD
What would Cameron himself do, I wonder?
Probably vote LD for his coalition partners but not campaign for them, Osborne's son is now LD I believe. John Major likely also goes Liberal.
Of other ex Tory leaders alive, IDS and Boris would all join up with Farage in such a scenario. If the Tories and ReformUK officially merged to form a new Conservative party Hague, Howard and May would also follow the Tory party with it as most likely would Sunak but be on the moderate wing of it
All for fun I know and I agree with all of that except I'm not sure about May. I think she may be a little homeless. Neither seem appropriate for her.
Betting post: If a serious wipeout occurs - Tories down to 60 or less, then the pool of MPs to be next Tory leader is tiny. Of those who may survive Tugendhat, Barclay and possibly Williamson are (relatively) noteworthy cheeses. Of those, Mr Hat (and Farage) are too short, but Barclay and Williamson are both long odds.
Barclay has no rivals in international boring competitions but could he also be leader of the post corn law rump, the valiant 50 or so?
These are just Throwaway remarks, suitable for Gold Cup day.
Hate to say it, but Williamson is the value there.
I've stopped betting on that market until after the election. I'm expecting a lot of non-runners.
Plane-painters, two women aged 22 and 28, have been arrested for criminal damage and “interference with the use of national infrastructure”. That second offence sounds like it might come with a substantial sentence on conviction.
Two planes were covered in orange paint, on the private aviation ramp at Stansted.
Time for some extraordinary rendition to Diego Garcia, The Pitcairn Islands, or Glasgow.
Glasgow? You shouldn't reward people for this kind of behaviour.
(And PtP moved to Gloucestershire ... well I never! Always had him down as Metropolitan Elite personified. Very interesting observations from him, as always.)
He has long maintained a country estate even while residing in the smoke...
That is closer to the truth than you might think, Scott, but I assure you I am mostly in the sticks these days.
I believe Cheltenham Racecourse sits in the Tewkesbury Constituency which might explain Lawrence Robertson's involvement in horse racing and related matters. There are also, I believe, a number of racing yards in his constituency though whether any are now in the new North Cotswolds I'm not sure.
As for PtP, with his known affinity for jump racing, I imagine being able to easily reach the likes of Cheltenham, Hereford, Worcester and even perhaps Ludlow and Wincanton wouldn't be the biggest drawback.
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest most English racecourses are currently in Conservative held constituencies. That may not be the case in 15 days time. Of the big tracks, we have Aintree, Ascot, Cheltenham, Epsom, Goodwood, Haydock, Newmarket, Sandown and York (there are others). Not sure about Aintree and Haydock but the others are, I'm pretty certain, in Conservative held seats.
Before discussing the death of the Tory Party, isn’t it necessary to consider the Councils, councillors, and mayoralties. They make it easier for even a tiny parliamentary rump to recover (and be seen to recover) than it would be otherwise.
That's why Farage's strategy is to do a reverse-takeover of the Tories, so that he can swallow up all the councillors, rather than have to campaign for the election of thousands of Reform councillors to replace them.
That's the political battle that makes a major difference for the future of British politics. Are there enough Reform fifth-columnists within the Conservative party to sell it to Farage?
Are the surviving leadership contenders on the right willing to run for the leadership on the basis of kowtowing to the Nigel?
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
What this means is that the Tories have abandoned hope of winning any constituencies at all, and instead are focusing resources on “saving the seat” - a particularly valuable Georgian chair at CCHQ, which requires expert joinery so it can then be auctioned off as the party is finally dissolved
For some reason it reminds me of the motion picture, Zulu. Labour hordes coming over the hill, slaughtering all in their way. They are primitive and vicious, even at one point threatening VAT on private schools. The odds are overwhelming but these marauders must be fought to the bitter end. Which is close now. The wagons are circled around the last hold-out, Maldon. There, a stiff lipped insouciant John Whittingdale embraces his fate, demonstrating the Best of British as he goes down.
Cathedral (well OK, abbey): check Orchards, Vineyards or Cattle: check Rugby clubs: check Steep hills: sort of...in the distance Fuck off great big yellow diamond signboards: check
Great checklist - pretty much explains the liberal anomaly of NE Fife. Liberalism survives in those parts of the country left broadly unchanged by the industrial revolution.
And before that, perhaps equally importantly, untouched by the open field system and then enclosure. Regions, like Western France with its Macron-voting bocage, that never had lord-serf social relations.
Explains why unindustrialised areas of the East Midlands and Eastern England vote Reform rather than Lib Dem.
And dates back further still to the Danelaw vs the Anglo Saxon kingdoms.
I guess the two are related as enclosure created a landless peasant class ripe for proletarianization as well as surplus capital to invest in factories. What I know of the history of St Andrews and its environs in NE Fife is that by the early 19th century the town was a complete backwater and by no means posh, it was run down and suffering from the fact that it was unplugged from the industrial wealth being created all around it. There were derelict buildings and rubbish uncollected in the crumbling medieval streets. Only later as the industrial areas suffered from increased global competition and knowledge industries became more important did St Andrews become posh and more prosperous than the surrounding areas. And it has maintained its links to pre-industrial traditions, from the various University rituals to the annual Lammas market and fair that still closes off the town's main streets every year.
Hmm, high farming in the Neuk, as in Lothian, *was* a massive and increasingly capitalised industry in itself with an increasingly deracinated rural proletariat. And there is a lot more to NEF than St Andrews. Guarsdbridge paper mill of late lamented memory, the corn milling at Cupar, and so on.
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest most English racecourses are currently in Conservative held constituencies. That may not be the case in 15 days time. Of the big tracks, we have Aintree, Ascot, Cheltenham, Epsom, Goodwood, Haydock, Newmarket, Sandown and York (there are others). Not sure about Aintree and Haydock but the others are, I'm pretty certain, in Conservative held seats.
I saw a post yesterday about Labour posters attached to paddock gates. If 'horsey' people have abandoned the Tories, it is indeed the end of days...
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
What this means is that the Tories have abandoned hope of winning any constituencies at all, and instead are focusing resources on “saving the seat” - a particularly valuable Georgian chair at CCHQ, which requires expert joinery so it can then be auctioned off as the party is finally dissolved
For some reason it reminds me of the motion picture, Zulu. Labour hordes coming over the hill, slaughtering all in their way. They are primitive and vicious, even at one point threatening VAT on private schools. The odds are overwhelming but these marauders must be fought to the bitter end. Which is close now. The wagons are circled around the last hold-out, Maldon. There, a stiff lipped insouciant John Whittingdale embraces his fate, demonstrating the Best of British as he goes down.
In Maldon they would have to watch out for the Farage hordes over the horizon even more
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
What this means is that the Tories have abandoned hope of winning any constituencies at all, and instead are focusing resources on “saving the seat” - a particularly valuable Georgian chair at CCHQ, which requires expert joinery so it can then be auctioned off as the party is finally dissolved
For some reason it reminds me of the motion picture, Zulu. Labour hordes coming over the hill, slaughtering all in their way. They are primitive and vicious, even at one point threatening VAT on private schools. The odds are overwhelming but these marauders must be fought to the bitter end. Which is close now. The wagons are circled around the last hold-out, Maldon. There, a stiff lipped insouciant John Whittingdale embraces his fate, demonstrating the Best of British as he goes down.
Er, don't you mean Zulu Dawn? Zulu is the one where the imperialists survive.
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
What this means is that the Tories have abandoned hope of winning any constituencies at all, and instead are focusing resources on “saving the seat” - a particularly valuable Georgian chair at CCHQ, which requires expert joinery so it can then be auctioned off as the party is finally dissolved
For some reason it reminds me of the motion picture, Zulu. Labour hordes coming over the hill, slaughtering all in their way. They are primitive and vicious, even at one point threatening VAT on private schools. The odds are overwhelming but these marauders must be fought to the bitter end. Which is close now. The wagons are circled around the last hold-out, Maldon. There, a stiff lipped insouciant John Whittingdale embraces his fate, demonstrating the Best of British as he goes down.
In Maldon they would have to watch out for the Farage hordes over the horizon even more
The LDs have certainly advanced since that post. Winchcombe, where I live, elected its first non-Tory councillor in eons at the locals last year, and yellow diamonds are plentiful now. Nearby Bishops Cleeve is the LD hotspot. Tewkesbury itself is very mixed, and it's where Labour support in the constituency is at its strongest. It is not sufficient howeber to muster a council seat, and you have to think the long-term trend is blue turning yellow...slowly.
Gun to head, I think Robertson holds on but it will be close.
Plane-painters, two women aged 22 and 28, have been arrested for criminal damage and “interference with the use of national infrastructure”. That second offence sounds like it might come with a substantial sentence on conviction.
Two planes were covered in orange paint, on the private aviation ramp at Stansted.
It makes more sense than throwing paint at Stonehenge.
Before discussing the death of the Tory Party, isn’t it necessary to consider the Councils, councillors, and mayoralties. They make it easier for even a tiny parliamentary rump to recover (and be seen to recover) than it would be otherwise.
That's why Farage's strategy is to do a reverse-takeover of the Tories, so that he can swallow up all the councillors, rather than have to campaign for the election of thousands of Reform councillors to replace them.
That's the political battle that makes a major difference for the future of British politics. Are there enough Reform fifth-columnists within the Conservative party to sell it to Farage?
Are the surviving leadership contenders on the right willing to run for the leadership on the basis of kowtowing to the Nigel?
If the Tories remain ahead of Reform on votes or probably even just seats on election night then probably not.
If Reform beat the Tories on seats as well as votes though the rump Tory party will merge with Farage's party ultimately, it then just becomes a matter of when under FPTP. Only PR might save it ironically as a One Nation centre right Tory party with even just 10% of the vote could win 65 seats with PR but 0 with FPTP
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
What this means is that the Tories have abandoned hope of winning any constituencies at all, and instead are focusing resources on “saving the seat” - a particularly valuable Georgian chair at CCHQ, which requires expert joinery so it can then be auctioned off as the party is finally dissolved
For some reason it reminds me of the motion picture, Zulu. Labour hordes coming over the hill, slaughtering all in their way. They are primitive and vicious, even at one point threatening VAT on private schools. The odds are overwhelming but these marauders must be fought to the bitter end. Which is close now. The wagons are circled around the last hold-out, Maldon. There, a stiff lipped insouciant John Whittingdale embraces his fate, demonstrating the Best of British as he goes down.
Er, don't you mean Zulu Dawn? Zulu is the one where the imperialists survive.
Betting post: If a serious wipeout occurs - Tories down to 60 or less, then the pool of MPs to be next Tory leader is tiny. Of those who may survive Tugendhat, Barclay and possibly Williamson are (relatively) noteworthy cheeses. Of those, Mr Hat (and Farage) are too short, but Barclay and Williamson are both long odds.
Barclay has no rivals in international boring competitions but could he also be leader of the post corn law rump, the valiant 50 or so?
These are just Throwaway remarks, suitable for Gold Cup day.
Hate to say it, but Williamson is the value there.
I've stopped betting on that market until after the election. I'm expecting a lot of non-runners.
No MPs would probably put Barclay and Tughendhat in the last 2 and Barclay likely wins
Cathedral (well OK, abbey): check Orchards, Vineyards or Cattle: check Rugby clubs: check Steep hills: sort of...in the distance Fuck off great big yellow diamond signboards: check
Great checklist - pretty much explains the liberal anomaly of NE Fife. Liberalism survives in those parts of the country left broadly unchanged by the industrial revolution.
And before that, perhaps equally importantly, untouched by the open field system and then enclosure. Regions, like Western France with its Macron-voting bocage, that never had lord-serf social relations.
Explains why unindustrialised areas of the East Midlands and Eastern England vote Reform rather than Lib Dem.
And dates back further still to the Danelaw vs the Anglo Saxon kingdoms.
I guess the two are related as enclosure created a landless peasant class ripe for proletarianization as well as surplus capital to invest in factories. What I know of the history of St Andrews and its environs in NE Fife is that by the early 19th century the town was a complete backwater and by no means posh, it was run down and suffering from the fact that it was unplugged from the industrial wealth being created all around it. There were derelict buildings and rubbish uncollected in the crumbling medieval streets. Only later as the industrial areas suffered from increased global competition and knowledge industries became more important did St Andrews become posh and more prosperous than the surrounding areas. And it has maintained its links to pre-industrial traditions, from the various University rituals to the annual Lammas market and fair that still closes off the town's main streets every year.
Hmm, high farming in the Neuk, as in Lothian, *was* a massive and increasingly capitalised industry in itself with an increasingly deracinated rural proletariat. And there is a lot more to NEF than St Andrews. Guarsdbridge paper mill of late lamented memory, the corn milling at Cupar, and so on.
Yes probably too St Andrews centric but as you know it is the centre of the known universe. Scottish high farming brings back memories of Standard Grade History! Now of course the Paper Mill is part of the University, a consumer not a producer of paper.
Just when you thought the betting scandal could not get any worse for the Conservatives:
"The BBC can reveal this morning that the Conservative candidate being looked into by the Gambling Commission over a bet relating to the timing of the general election is married to the party’s Director of Campaigns. Laura Saunders, the party’s candidate in Bristol North West, has worked for the Tories since 2015. It is not known when the bet was placed or for how much money. She is married to Tony Lee, who is the Conservative Party’s Director of Campaigns."
The best you can say about this is that the public are already so convinced that the Conservative Party is run by a bunch of corrupt no-goods just out for themselves that this won't shift already rock bottom perceptions on that front. They're all at it, but we knew that anyway.
Before discussing the death of the Tory Party, isn’t it necessary to consider the Councils, councillors, and mayoralties. They make it easier for even a tiny parliamentary rump to recover (and be seen to recover) than it would be otherwise.
The Conservative local base has taken a pounding in the last three rounds but 2021 was a decent year. Assuming you have a rump of 30-50 MPs you're then looking at the likes of Ben Houchen and Council leaders like Tim Oliver.
It will be fascinating to see if the Conservative Parliamentary Party is reduced that far whether the ties of allegiance at local level will continue. Could we see Conservative Councillors defecting en bloc to Reform or the LDs or simply going Independent? The 2025 local council round (which includes the County Council elections) could be the final nail in the Conservative coffin.
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
What this means is that the Tories have abandoned hope of winning any constituencies at all, and instead are focusing resources on “saving the seat” - a particularly valuable Georgian chair at CCHQ, which requires expert joinery so it can then be auctioned off as the party is finally dissolved
For some reason it reminds me of the motion picture, Zulu. Labour hordes coming over the hill, slaughtering all in their way. They are primitive and vicious, even at one point threatening VAT on private schools. The odds are overwhelming but these marauders must be fought to the bitter end. Which is close now. The wagons are circled around the last hold-out, Maldon. There, a stiff lipped insouciant John Whittingdale embraces his fate, demonstrating the Best of British as he goes down.
In Maldon they would have to watch out for the Farage hordes over the horizon even more
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
What this means is that the Tories have abandoned hope of winning any constituencies at all, and instead are focusing resources on “saving the seat” - a particularly valuable Georgian chair at CCHQ, which requires expert joinery so it can then be auctioned off as the party is finally dissolved
For some reason it reminds me of the motion picture, Zulu. Labour hordes coming over the hill, slaughtering all in their way. They are primitive and vicious, even at one point threatening VAT on private schools. The odds are overwhelming but these marauders must be fought to the bitter end. Which is close now. The wagons are circled around the last hold-out, Maldon. There, a stiff lipped insouciant John Whittingdale embraces his fate, demonstrating the Best of British as he goes down.
From 'The Battle of Maldon' one of the great Anglo Saxon poems. The battle was fought 991:
Byrhtwold (Whittingdale!) made a speech, raised his shield (he was an old retainer), shook his ash-spear. He exhorted the warriors very boldly: ‘Mind must be harder, heart keener, spirit must be greater as our strength diminishes. Here our leader lies all cut down, a good man in the dirt. He who thinks to turn away from this battle-play now will always be able to lament it.
Before discussing the death of the Tory Party, isn’t it necessary to consider the Councils, councillors, and mayoralties. They make it easier for even a tiny parliamentary rump to recover (and be seen to recover) than it would be otherwise.
That's why Farage's strategy is to do a reverse-takeover of the Tories, so that he can swallow up all the councillors, rather than have to campaign for the election of thousands of Reform councillors to replace them.
That's the political battle that makes a major difference for the future of British politics. Are there enough Reform fifth-columnists within the Conservative party to sell it to Farage?
Are the surviving leadership contenders on the right willing to run for the leadership on the basis of kowtowing to the Nigel?
Farage doesn't give a toss about councillors, and rightly so from his point of view. He will keep campaigning focused on national and international issues and the votes will follow. As it is, there's a very good chance that they'll finish second in terms of votes nationally with pretty much zero councillors. Having a local base simply doesn't matter very much.
And against the argument that 'but local bases do deliver MPs; widespread support doesn't', that's only true up to a point. The Lib Dems proved in 1983 or 2010 that you can poll well into the twenties and return only a few dozen MPs - and because your vote is concentrated, that also puts a ceiling on your maximum. By contrast, yes, Reform only return a handful up to the high teens but then start winning scores as they advance through the 20s, and that's what they're after.
Besides, if Reform consistently out-perform the Tories in the polls, there'll be a natural dynamic of right-of-centre support drifting to them anyway, as the Stop-Lab/LD/Grn vehicle, and plenty of councillors and activists (and they're by no means a concentric pair of rings on a Venn diagram) will just defect outright.
I'm sure Farage would be very happy to lead a merged party of the right, and swallow up the Tory infrastructure, data, activists and media backing, rather than have to compete against all that,
Betting post: If a serious wipeout occurs - Tories down to 60 or less, then the pool of MPs to be next Tory leader is tiny. Of those who may survive Tugendhat, Barclay and possibly Williamson are (relatively) noteworthy cheeses. Of those, Mr Hat (and Farage) are too short, but Barclay and Williamson are both long odds.
Barclay has no rivals in international boring competitions but could he also be leader of the post corn law rump, the valiant 50 or so?
These are just Throwaway remarks, suitable for Gold Cup day.
Hate to say it, but Williamson is the value there.
I've stopped betting on that market until after the election. I'm expecting a lot of non-runners.
But Farage's odds are likely to shorten then, are they not ? (I've had a small punt.)
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
IF Reform do maintain their streak (I don't think they will, but let's speculate) and the conservatives are reduced to below 100 seats, we've all talked about what then likely happens with a Tory-Reform reverse takeover. Seems pretty likely. But what then happens with the never-Farage Tories?
Let's also say the Lib Dems do spectacularly well and have 45 to 50 seats.
We hit a fork in the road where party realignments potentially mean HM opposition is up for grabs. Do those one nation Tories (and there are still a few quiet remainers in there) look to join the Lib Dems, where they could depending on numbers make up a combined opposition? Would the Lib Dems take them? Or do they do what the GOP moderates did and reconcile themselves to denying the evidence of their eyes and ears and loving Nigel Farage?
If the Tories and Reform merged as their Canadian cousins did in 2003 most Tories would join with Farage.
However yes a few of the most moderate Canadian Tories joined the Canadian Liberals back then and some One Nation ex Remainer Tories and Cameroons would likely go LD
What would Cameron himself do, I wonder?
Probably vote LD for his coalition partners but not campaign for them, Osborne's son is now LD I believe. John Major likely also goes Liberal.
Of other ex Tory leaders alive, IDS and Boris would all join up with Farage in such a scenario. If the Tories and ReformUK officially merged to form a new Conservative party Hague, Howard and May would also follow the Tory party with it as most likely would Sunak but be on the moderate wing of it
All for fun I know and I agree with all of that except I'm not sure about May. I think she may be a little homeless. Neither seem appropriate for her.
Agree. But then she's left the Commons and as an ex-PM has a peerage for the asking - so it'd be easy enough for her to sit as a crossbencher.
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
What this means is that the Tories have abandoned hope of winning any constituencies at all, and instead are focusing resources on “saving the seat” - a particularly valuable Georgian chair at CCHQ, which requires expert joinery so it can then be auctioned off as the party is finally dissolved
For some reason it reminds me of the motion picture, Zulu. Labour hordes coming over the hill, slaughtering all in their way. They are primitive and vicious, even at one point threatening VAT on private schools. The odds are overwhelming but these marauders must be fought to the bitter end. Which is close now. The wagons are circled around the last hold-out, Maldon. There, a stiff lipped insouciant John Whittingdale embraces his fate, demonstrating the Best of British as he goes down.
In Maldon they would have to watch out for the Farage hordes over the horizon even more
That's a good point. The 'hordes' are of different hue depending where you are (and sometimes there's a two pronged attack).
Massive test of your mettle, this is. I'm actually rooting for you. Last thing I want is a rampant Farage.
My area, which used to be Fareham (Suella) was reorganised into Fareham & Waterlooville (Suella is candidate) and Hamble Valley. In both the polling indicates that the Tory could be beaten if the electorate knew whether to vote Labour or LibDem. The tactical vote website https://stopthetories.vote/ can't make a recommendation for either yet, but in Hamble Valley the LibDems look best placed according to https://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2024/06/lib-dems-and-reform-uk-gain-ground-in-eastleigh-and-hamble-valley/ "In Hamble Valley, the Lib Dem candidate Prad Bains has taken another 1% away from Labour, bringing him within 5% of Conservative candidate Paul Holmes, Eastleigh’s former MP" I haven't looked at the odds for these two seats, but it could get interesting if a primary challenger emerges.
IF Reform do maintain their streak (I don't think they will, but let's speculate) and the conservatives are reduced to below 100 seats, we've all talked about what then likely happens with a Tory-Reform reverse takeover. Seems pretty likely. But what then happens with the never-Farage Tories?
Let's also say the Lib Dems do spectacularly well and have 45 to 50 seats.
We hit a fork in the road where party realignments potentially mean HM opposition is up for grabs. Do those one nation Tories (and there are still a few quiet remainers in there) look to join the Lib Dems, where they could depending on numbers make up a combined opposition? Would the Lib Dems take them? Or do they do what the GOP moderates did and reconcile themselves to denying the evidence of their eyes and ears and loving Nigel Farage?
If the Tories and Reform merged as their Canadian cousins did in 2003 most Tories would join with Farage.
However yes a few of the most moderate Canadian Tories joined the Canadian Liberals back then and some One Nation ex Remainer Tories and Cameroons would likely go LD
I agree. Local dynamics would also play a role in their choice, in the absence of PR.
IF Reform do maintain their streak (I don't think they will, but let's speculate) and the conservatives are reduced to below 100 seats, we've all talked about what then likely happens with a Tory-Reform reverse takeover. Seems pretty likely. But what then happens with the never-Farage Tories?
Let's also say the Lib Dems do spectacularly well and have 45 to 50 seats.
We hit a fork in the road where party realignments potentially mean HM opposition is up for grabs. Do those one nation Tories (and there are still a few quiet remainers in there) look to join the Lib Dems, where they could depending on numbers make up a combined opposition? Would the Lib Dems take them? Or do they do what the GOP moderates did and reconcile themselves to denying the evidence of their eyes and ears and loving Nigel Farage?
If the Tories and Reform merged as their Canadian cousins did in 2003 most Tories would join with Farage.
However yes a few of the most moderate Canadian Tories joined the Canadian Liberals back then and some One Nation ex Remainer Tories and Cameroons would likely go LD
I agree. Local dynamics would also play a role in their choice, in the absence of PR.
What are the odds on the Tories switching to support PR?
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
What this means is that the Tories have abandoned hope of winning any constituencies at all, and instead are focusing resources on “saving the seat” - a particularly valuable Georgian chair at CCHQ, which requires expert joinery so it can then be auctioned off as the party is finally dissolved
For some reason it reminds me of the motion picture, Zulu. Labour hordes coming over the hill, slaughtering all in their way. They are primitive and vicious, even at one point threatening VAT on private schools. The odds are overwhelming but these marauders must be fought to the bitter end. Which is close now. The wagons are circled around the last hold-out, Maldon. There, a stiff lipped insouciant John Whittingdale embraces his fate, demonstrating the Best of British as he goes down.
Er, don't you mean Zulu Dawn? Zulu is the one where the imperialists survive.
Ah ok. Zulu Dawn then. But fwiw I do actually think they'll survive. I'm long on the 100/199 seat range.
I have had a WhatsApp this morning claiming that conservative head office is planning to call candidates and tell them their seats are lost and resources are being pulled back to try and save ‘safe’ seats. Is anyone else hearing this? I guess given today’s news we should just look for betting patterns. Bets on seemingly unlikely Tory losses may be coming from HQ and may be a sign it is happening.
I guess it depends where your WhatsApp has come from. If, for example, it was coming from Reform HQ expecting it to be disseminated on discussion sites and social media then I expect other reform people are hearing this.
If the WhatsApp you received is from Tory HQ then it’s worth bearing in mind. So probably more enlightening if you old us the source of the WhatsApp no?
Not sure where it comes from will help, but the claim was it is being reported by Michael Crick. So just wondered if others had seen it. I cannot find an independent verification at this stage.
Alex Wickham has the same story;
* EXCLUSIVE: CCHQ yesterday told candidates it is redirecting campaign resources away from many Tory-held seats toward ultra-safe seats *
* This will be seen as a tacit admission the Tories are conceding the election and are now trying to avoid wipeout *
— CCHQ on Wednesday told Tory candidates in several seats *who are defending majorities of over 10,000* that their funds and favorable access to party activists was being withdrawn
— resources are being moved to other seats with larger majorities
This is literally the director of the entire Tory field operation standing aside 2 weeks from polling day. Total unprecedented meltdown. WhatsApp burning up with completely apoplectic Tories
Maybe this has already been noted here, but the Tories sending out an advert about how "betting on Labour" is always a loss may be a bit.... in poor taste?
IF Reform do maintain their streak (I don't think they will, but let's speculate) and the conservatives are reduced to below 100 seats, we've all talked about what then likely happens with a Tory-Reform reverse takeover. Seems pretty likely. But what then happens with the never-Farage Tories?
Let's also say the Lib Dems do spectacularly well and have 45 to 50 seats.
We hit a fork in the road where party realignments potentially mean HM opposition is up for grabs. Do those one nation Tories (and there are still a few quiet remainers in there) look to join the Lib Dems, where they could depending on numbers make up a combined opposition? Would the Lib Dems take them? Or do they do what the GOP moderates did and reconcile themselves to denying the evidence of their eyes and ears and loving Nigel Farage?
If the Tories and Reform merged as their Canadian cousins did in 2003 most Tories would join with Farage.
However yes a few of the most moderate Canadian Tories joined the Canadian Liberals back then and some One Nation ex Remainer Tories and Cameroons would likely go LD
What would Cameron himself do, I wonder?
Probably vote LD for his coalition partners but not campaign for them, Osborne's son is now LD I believe. John Major likely also goes Liberal.
Of other ex Tory leaders alive, IDS and Boris would all join up with Farage in such a scenario. If the Tories and ReformUK officially merged to form a new Conservative party Hague, Howard and May would also follow the Tory party with it as most likely would Sunak but be on the moderate wing of it
All for fun I know and I agree with all of that except I'm not sure about May. I think she may be a little homeless. Neither seem appropriate for her.
May can't stand Farage after his BXP toppled her effectively and nor can she stand the LDs as they pushed EUref2 and rejected her Brexit deal. Most likely she would stay in the Tories as long as they remained independent and otherwise retire to her Maidenhead garden with Philip
IF Reform do maintain their streak (I don't think they will, but let's speculate) and the conservatives are reduced to below 100 seats, we've all talked about what then likely happens with a Tory-Reform reverse takeover. Seems pretty likely. But what then happens with the never-Farage Tories?
Let's also say the Lib Dems do spectacularly well and have 45 to 50 seats.
We hit a fork in the road where party realignments potentially mean HM opposition is up for grabs. Do those one nation Tories (and there are still a few quiet remainers in there) look to join the Lib Dems, where they could depending on numbers make up a combined opposition? Would the Lib Dems take them? Or do they do what the GOP moderates did and reconcile themselves to denying the evidence of their eyes and ears and loving Nigel Farage?
If the Tories and Reform merged as their Canadian cousins did in 2003 most Tories would join with Farage.
However yes a few of the most moderate Canadian Tories joined the Canadian Liberals back then and some One Nation ex Remainer Tories and Cameroons would likely go LD
What would HYUFD do ?
Stay in the Tories, otherwise go with the majority
Interesting article PtP. I don't bet myself but in the same vein William Hill apparently have the LDs at 66/1 in North Dorset with Labour at 9/1, Tories 1/16 with Bet365.
Similar to Tewksbury, Labour aren't trying here - non-local candidate. Also Dorset Council fell to the LDs in the locals.
Tory incumbent Simon Hoare is clearly the favourite but Reform have a candidate likely to peel off a sizeable chunk of hard right Tory support.
I'd say it's an 80% Con, 20% LD chance. DYOR
Wow! That's the third safest seat in the country. Even so, if I'm going past a Will Hill any time soon I'll toss a fiver at it.
What is Hoare like as an MP? Here in Tewkes, Laurence Robertson is no star but he's a long way from being the worst MP in the House, so incumbency definitely helps him. On the plus side, he did speak out bravely about the shenanigans at No 10 during Covid. There were also stories of him imbibing heavily of the corporate hospitality at the Cheltenham Festival. Round this way, that too is a positive.
I think it's going to be close enough for small things like that to matter. Today's betting scandal story won't help him. It's meat and drink to the punters here who will be horrified that a) the silly sod got caught and b) he/she didn't put more on.
Off topic, can anyone yet explain why Doug Burgum is favourite by some distance to be the GOP's nominee for Vice President ?
Because there's been a huge administrative blunder and they think he's actually Dan Burgon, and they can't believe their luck getting someone of his intellectual pedigree.
Great header - I am sure there are a lot of blue wall seats mispriced because of an overestimate of Labour based on polling (and underestimating the yellow peril / Tory holds). There is no way that Labour would have planned a whole country campaign - and as @Peter_the_Punter points out some Labour candidates, as good as they may be, are alway going to be largely paper candidates selected some time out.
In Macclesfield related news - the Labour Party is posting stuff to our house almost daily (50/50 royal mail / Labour volunteers). I have had one Reform leaflet (not the party for me but did enjoy the slogan “Get Macc back on track.”), several from the independents independent and nothing from the incumbent Conservative candidate or LibDems.
Although I have seen a few videos from the Tories on Facebook. So someone is spending money for them there.
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest most English racecourses are currently in Conservative held constituencies. That may not be the case in 15 days time. Of the big tracks, we have Aintree, Ascot, Cheltenham, Epsom, Goodwood, Haydock, Newmarket, Sandown and York (there are others). Not sure about Aintree and Haydock but the others are, I'm pretty certain, in Conservative held seats.
I saw a post yesterday about Labour posters attached to paddock gates. If 'horsey' people have abandoned the Tories, it is indeed the end of days...
Re politics of race courses, all these are minor but round here, Carlisle and Hexham courses are about to go red from blue; Cartmel will remain a rare LD course.
Surely the health warning on betting based on Lib Dem leaflets is in even bigger than MRPs ? In my area the Lib Dems have been saying it's not a Labour target, but the Labour office was buzzing on a Saturday morning while their office was closed. May not be the same in Tewkesbury of course.
I would rely on the LD leaflet count more than the MRP. We don't waste leaflets on non targets. The most you will get is the Royal Mail delivery and possibly a national leaflet.
Nice article @Peter_the_Punter. I wrote the above before reading your article which I agree with completely. A better guide than MRP, which appears to struggle with such high national Lab polling and such low national LD polling for the seats where the LDs are potential challengers. If LDs are really working it and Lab aren't then an MRP that makes Lab the challenger is nonsense.
The real difficulty is where both are going for it, like we are hearing about Wantage and Didcot which has been argued about on here. Anecdotally, as I posted yesterday, from someone I know there, they have had loads of LD leaflets, yet no Lab ones, so it will be interesting to see who the challenger is/was there after the election. Worth a note that they have also not had any Tory leaflets.
One thing that was very little discussed in the cold civil war the country had from 2015-19 was what that leaving would exclude us from future EU legislation and it's implications.
It won't be too long before things like Low Voltage and EU directives get replaced with updated ones as they do periodically.
At the moment we are accepting CE marking indefinitely and have done with a slew of EU reguldtions what British Standards have done with hundreds of European Norms (standards), that is prefix EN with BS in the title and change nothing else.
That position might not last if the EU make radical and intrusive changes to said directives.
If the directives are sensible we copy them
If not, we don’t
Simples
Not as simple as that. They are all intertangled like a cats cradle. Diverging is quite a big decision with all sorts of real world implications.
It has a lot of potential to scratch off the scab and reopen the wound
My area, which used to be Fareham (Suella) was reorganised into Fareham & Waterlooville (Suella is candidate) and Hamble Valley. In both the polling indicates that the Tory could be beaten if the electorate knew whether to vote Labour or LibDem. The tactical vote website https://stopthetories.vote/ can't make a recommendation for either yet, but in Hamble Valley the LibDems look best placed according to https://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2024/06/lib-dems-and-reform-uk-gain-ground-in-eastleigh-and-hamble-valley/ "In Hamble Valley, the Lib Dem candidate Prad Bains has taken another 1% away from Labour, bringing him within 5% of Conservative candidate Paul Holmes, Eastleigh’s former MP" I haven't looked at the odds for these two seats, but it could get interesting if a primary challenger emerges.
Maybe this has already been noted here, but the Tories sending out an advert about how "betting on Labour" is always a loss may be a bit.... in poor taste?
Two more leaflets in my Conservative/Lib Dem marginal. Both Royal Mail deliveries - Green and Reform. Reform goes on the topic immigration near exclusively. Generic, but with the local candidate's name added to the top. Their message is simple but practically weak. They note: "Only Reform UK will turn the boats back to France..." Working in the field of maritime security research I know that this is (a) impractical and (b) very questionable legally, especially as 'pushed back boats' risks occupants throwing themselves in to the sea which then becomes a search and rescue operation under international law. This emphasis on getting the quick headline and highlighting approaches that simply will not work really frustrates me.
Comments
My personal theory is that the South West London LD heartland is a metastasis of Wessex, bringing its political norms and sporting preferences with it - it's the bit of the capital closest to the M3 and M4 so it's where people from those regions choose to live when they move to London.
Basically along with having a Waitrose and Gales, having a LD MP or the LDs second to the Tories at the last general election is a good indicator of poshness
Certainly people who have disrupted a commercial flight that caused a diversion have been sent a bill before, one woman got an £85k bill from Jet2 https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/jet-2-flight-passenger-bill-intl-scli/index.html
What’s the sentencing guidelines for criminal damage in such circumstances as well, surely there’s degrees of damage?
I can see them becoming orange book again though if there's an influx of never-Farage Tories.
However yes a few of the most moderate Canadian Tories joined the Canadian Liberals back then and some One Nation ex Remainer Tories and Cameroons would likely go LD
They’ve moved out to 4.9 on it and I think that is great value.
Two planes were covered in orange paint, on the private aviation ramp at Stansted.
15k majority = about a '97 result
20k majority = ca 100 seats.....
25k = 30?
Of other ex Tory leaders alive, IDS and Boris would all join up with Farage in such a scenario. If the Tories and ReformUK officially merged to form a new Conservative party Hague, Howard and May would also follow the Tory party with it as most likely would Sunak but be on the moderate wing of it
If there was a realignment centre right ex Remainer Tories like him joining the LDs would push it right and some of the social democracts in turn would likely leave the LDs for Labour or the Greens
I've stopped betting on that market until after the election. I'm expecting a lot of non-runners.
As for PtP, with his known affinity for jump racing, I imagine being able to easily reach the likes of Cheltenham, Hereford, Worcester and even perhaps Ludlow and Wincanton wouldn't be the biggest drawback.
I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest most English racecourses are currently in Conservative held constituencies. That may not be the case in 15 days time. Of the big tracks, we have Aintree, Ascot, Cheltenham, Epsom, Goodwood, Haydock, Newmarket, Sandown and York (there are others). Not sure about Aintree and Haydock but the others are, I'm pretty certain, in Conservative held seats.
Outrageous. I might have to take her out.
That's the political battle that makes a major difference for the future of British politics. Are there enough Reform fifth-columnists within the Conservative party to sell it to Farage?
Are the surviving leadership contenders on the right willing to run for the leadership on the basis of kowtowing to the Nigel?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslondon/just-stop-oil-break-into-stansted-vip-airfield-and-spray-jets-with-orange-paint-hours-after-taylor-swift-s-plane-lands/ar-BB1oyyYG?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=b1c6952d6a874ff488b6faaf9e0478fa&ei=18
The LDs have certainly advanced since that post. Winchcombe, where I live, elected its first non-Tory councillor in eons at the locals last year, and yellow diamonds are plentiful now. Nearby Bishops Cleeve is the LD hotspot. Tewkesbury itself is very mixed, and it's where Labour support in the constituency is at its strongest. It is not sufficient howeber to muster a council seat, and you have to think the long-term trend is blue turning yellow...slowly.
Gun to head, I think Robertson holds on but it will be close.
If Reform beat the Tories on seats as well as votes though the rump Tory party will merge with Farage's party ultimately, it then just becomes a matter of when under FPTP. Only PR might save it ironically as a One Nation centre right Tory party with even just 10% of the vote could win 65 seats with PR but 0 with FPTP
Part of it comes from a Lib Dem byelection win, so will have been worked hard there, both in the byelection and since then.
I do not have any insider information, but it would not come as a surprise.
"The BBC can reveal this morning that the Conservative candidate being looked into by the Gambling Commission over a bet relating to the timing of the general election is married to the party’s Director of Campaigns.
Laura Saunders, the party’s candidate in Bristol North West, has worked for the Tories since 2015.
It is not known when the bet was placed or for how much money.
She is married to Tony Lee, who is the Conservative Party’s Director of Campaigns."
The best you can say about this is that the public are already so convinced that the Conservative Party is run by a bunch of corrupt no-goods just out for themselves that this won't shift already rock bottom perceptions on that front. They're all at it, but we knew that anyway.
It will be fascinating to see if the Conservative Parliamentary Party is reduced that far whether the ties of allegiance at local level will continue. Could we see Conservative Councillors defecting en bloc to Reform or the LDs or simply going Independent? The 2025 local council round (which includes the County Council elections) could be the final nail in the Conservative coffin.
Byrhtwold (Whittingdale!) made a speech, raised his shield
(he was an old retainer), shook his ash-spear.
He exhorted the warriors very boldly:
‘Mind must be harder, heart keener,
spirit must be greater as our strength diminishes.
Here our leader lies all cut down,
a good man in the dirt. He who thinks to
turn away from this battle-play now will always be able to lament it.
And against the argument that 'but local bases do deliver MPs; widespread support doesn't', that's only true up to a point. The Lib Dems proved in 1983 or 2010 that you can poll well into the twenties and return only a few dozen MPs - and because your vote is concentrated, that also puts a ceiling on your maximum. By contrast, yes, Reform only return a handful up to the high teens but then start winning scores as they advance through the 20s, and that's what they're after.
Besides, if Reform consistently out-perform the Tories in the polls, there'll be a natural dynamic of right-of-centre support drifting to them anyway, as the Stop-Lab/LD/Grn vehicle, and plenty of councillors and activists (and they're by no means a concentric pair of rings on a Venn diagram) will just defect outright.
I'm sure Farage would be very happy to lead a merged party of the right, and swallow up the Tory infrastructure, data, activists and media backing, rather than have to compete against all that,
Tony Lee, Tory campaign director, took a leave of absence from Party HQ yesterday, a Conservative spokesperson has told us
(I've had a small punt.)
Massive test of your mettle, this is. I'm actually rooting for you. Last thing I want is a rampant Farage.
In both the polling indicates that the Tory could be beaten if the electorate knew whether to vote Labour or LibDem. The tactical vote website https://stopthetories.vote/ can't make a recommendation for either yet, but in Hamble Valley the LibDems look best placed according to https://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2024/06/lib-dems-and-reform-uk-gain-ground-in-eastleigh-and-hamble-valley/
"In Hamble Valley, the Lib Dem candidate Prad Bains has taken another 1% away from Labour, bringing him within 5% of Conservative candidate Paul Holmes, Eastleigh’s former MP"
I haven't looked at the odds for these two seats, but it could get interesting if a primary challenger emerges.
This is literally the director of the entire Tory field operation standing aside 2 weeks from polling day. Total unprecedented meltdown. WhatsApp burning up with completely apoplectic Tories
Trump does want anyone who might either compete with him or look more impressive than him.
He also seems to be rich.
https://x.com/conservatives/status/1803427399872233805
https://www.frontpages.com/scottish-daily-mail/
What is Hoare like as an MP? Here in Tewkes, Laurence Robertson is no star but he's a long way from being the worst MP in the House, so incumbency definitely helps him. On the plus side, he did speak out bravely about the shenanigans at No 10 during Covid. There were also stories of him imbibing heavily of the corporate hospitality at the Cheltenham Festival. Round this way, that too is a positive.
I think it's going to be close enough for small things like that to matter. Today's betting scandal story won't help him. It's meat and drink to the punters here who will be horrified that a) the silly sod got caught and b) he/she didn't put more on.
How can you elect people like that?
In Macclesfield related news - the Labour Party is posting stuff to our house almost daily (50/50 royal mail / Labour volunteers). I have had one Reform leaflet (not the party for me but did enjoy the slogan “Get Macc back on track.”), several from the independents independent and nothing from the incumbent Conservative candidate or LibDems.
Although I have seen a few videos from the Tories on Facebook. So someone is spending money for them there.
The real difficulty is where both are going for it, like we are hearing about Wantage and Didcot which has been argued about on here. Anecdotally, as I posted yesterday, from someone I know there, they have had loads of LD leaflets, yet no Lab ones, so it will be interesting to see who the challenger is/was there after the election. Worth a note that they have also not had any Tory leaflets.
It has a lot of potential to scratch off the scab and reopen the wound
Any more info ?
LDs are 9/1 on Betfair, which seems a tad long ?