Looking at YouGovs comments, methodology accounts for 2 points lab drop and the associated LD gain and therefore, as predicted by some pollsters, the reform rise has come fairly equally from Con and Lab
Intuitively and based on nothing more than a feeling in my bones I'd say the results from the new methodology are the more credible.
I would certainly expect lower Labour and higher LD scores than under the old method.
And the £2000 per household question is...
Where are those extra Lib Dem voters?
Scattered uniformly, quite good news for the Conservatives and bad for Labour.
In the right places, very very bad indeed.
See 1997.
I suspect the Labour vote is very efficient and the Lib Dem one is slightly less so but may become more efficient if Labour are clueful...
I gave one example yesterday - a bit of careful planning and Windsor / Maidenhead (both currently Tory holds) could easily be won provided Labour concentrates in Windsor and lets the Lib Dems focus on Maidenhead...
We could be on for a freak election result with Reform winning a load of Red Wall seats and the Tories finishing behind the Lib Dems.
Reform likely won't win any seats. 1 or 2 at the most, in the South not the Red Wall most probable.
Tories finishing behind the Lib Dems is of course extremely unlikely but far more likely than Reform winning loads of seats.
There's a certain threshold above which the Reform vote starts to become very efficient in terms of FPTP seats. In other words the difference between 1 or 2 seats and 100 seats isn't very much.
Focaldata have a post farage in the field, not sure when reporting. MiC will have their tracker probably in the morning? Techne and WeThink Friday, ipsos tomorrow I believe
Intuitively and based on nothing more than a feeling in my bones I'd say the results from the new methodology are the more credible.
I would certainly expect lower Labour and higher LD scores than under the old method.
And the £2000 per household question is...
Where are those extra Lib Dem voters?
Scattered uniformly, quite good news for the Conservatives and bad for Labour.
In the right places, very very bad indeed.
See 1997.
Well, some of those LD voters are here in Winchcombe and Bishops Cleeve.
The LDs have had a poor campaign so far by most of the usual metrics. They have hardly registered on the National stage apart from a couple of Harry Worth performances and a more nimble one by the Henley Boat Crew. Yet drive around here and all you see is yellow diamonds - and this is in a seat where they start a distant third.
When sporting Index put their initial spreads up RCS, Casino Royale and me all thought they were a sell on 36,but they are now up to 40 and show no sign of dipping. I'm refraining from a bet, but if I am tempted, I think I'd be a buyer now, if only for the God-given gift to them of Mr Farage.
Leaving aside your 50/50 reallocation of RefUK votes, a lot depends where the minor parties actually stand candidates. They talk a good game but by all accounts, even the Conservative Party was caught on the hop by Rishi's early election and is struggling to get candidates in place by Friday's deadline.
It's not a simple 50/50 reallocation but yes I expect it to round roughly that way.
Reallocating Reform to will not vote inflates all other parties at the scale of how they're currently polling. So this is +4 Lab, +2 Tory, +1 LD in the calculation. Then the remaining switching to main parties is disproportionately to the Tories, +1 Lab, +3 Tory, +1 LD in the calculation, but this disproportionate change doesn't overcome the scaling effect.
Leading to net changes of +5, +5, +2 respectively.
Previous methodology has Tories and Reform tied on 18%!
What would Labour be on with the old methodology?
45.
That yougov is not the current state of play in this election, where Labour are 43% Con 24% and Reform 12% at most. My prediction is no other polls out in next few days will show a Ref surge or anything over 12%, nor will they show Labour close to 40% (though in mitigation Labour to get a bounce in later fieldwork after Starmer clearly won the debate).
Remember these figures include a methodology change and Nigel returning to reform but if we compare to the MRP figures from Monday
Lab 46% Con 21% Ref 15% Lib Dems 8% Grn 6%
So Labour massively down, LDems up and Tories have traded 2% with Reform.
Baxtered gives you 56 Con seats, in third place behind LDs on 63.
Hmmm...plausible rather than likely.
Baxter has Labour winning Epping Forest on today's Yougov but UNS still has the Tories holding it with an 11% majority over Labour.
So not sure about Baxter. Also we need post debate polls too to get a clearer picture rather than just one that caught all Farage's publicity from his return as Reform leader
I don't expect it but if there is a Tory gain in England my pick is Cramlington and Killingworth. This election will disguise it but there is a long-term trend towards Conservatives in the towns of Northern England, boundary changes have made a Tory gain in GE19 (Blyth Valley) into a notional Labour seat but only by less than 2% and that was despite a sizeable Brexit party vote (7.9%). The incumbent MP for much of the new constituency is standing again, the Labour candidate isn't a councillor or seems to have much of a profile. The polls would have to narrow and the Brexit/Reform vote will have to be squeezed but it doesn't seem completely impossible.
It isn't. But the seat isn't the successor to Blyth Valley at all. It's about half of it (Cramlington), although the more Tory half. The rest of it (more than half) isn't even town. It's from strongly Labour N Tyneside, and Newcastle.
Completely agree with everything you said - but I can't spot anything more likely in England. Probably missed something obvious.
A lot of people thinking “Reform *surely* can’t get around 20%” are ignoring 3 things for me.
1) A few weeks of Farage on the TV, and more potential polls showing the Tories very far behind Labour, might make a lot of voters think “Sod it, I’m voting Reform”. Farage’s stated strategy is to reverse takeover the Tory Party - on Friday he might explicitly say “Rishi Sunak won’t be PM, but in a few years, I could be”
2) The 2019 European elections are of course not the same type or election nor political climate as now, but we saw 30% of votes go to the BXP in that. Another election where people thought “Well, the Tories can’t win anyway, and what’s the point”.
3) A lot of current Tory voters may warm to the LDs once Ed Davey gets a chance to be on TV a bit more in the campaign, and if the Tories look more defeated. This could swing a lot of Tory/LD marginals.
This is not to say it *will* happen but it certainly *can*.
Previous methodology has Tories and Reform tied on 18%!
What would Labour be on with the old methodology?
45.
That yougov is not the current state of play in this election, where Labour are 43% Con 24% and Reform 12% at most. My prediction is no other polls out in next few days will show a Ref surge or anything over 12%, nor will they show Labour close to 40% (though in mitigation Labour to get a bounce in later fieldwork after Starmer clearly won the debate).
Thanks. When Reform support goes up, a certain percentage of it will be from Labour supporters of course. Not much, but maybe enough to knock them down a point or two.
Focaldata have a post farage in the field, not sure when reporting. MiC will have their tracker probably in the morning? Techne and WeThink Friday, ipsos tomorrow I believe
It will probably be another week or so before we can properly assess the impact of the Farageasm.
Previous methodology has Tories and Reform tied on 18%!
What would Labour be on with the old methodology?
45.
That yougov is not the current state of play in this election, where Labour are 43% Con 24% and Reform 12% at most. My prediction is no other polls out in next few days will show a Ref surge or anything over 12%, nor will they show Labour close to 40% (though in mitigation Labour to get a bounce in later fieldwork after Starmer clearly won the debate).
Thanks. When Reform support goes up, a certain percentage of it will be from Labour supporters of course. Not much, but maybe enough to knock them down a point or two.
Impact of yougov methodology change https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49614-using-mrp-for-our-voting-intention-polling 1 Constituency question: We drive the MRP off a question asking people how they will vote in their specific constituency, which better picks up tactical voting considerations. At the present time, this tends to increase Liberal Democrat support by around 2 points and decrease Labour support by a similar amount. 2 Don’t knows: The MRP model effectively reallocates don't knows. Rather than historical approaches that have done this by assuming those people will vote the way they did in the past, it does so by modelling their vote based on those of similar political background and demographics. 3 Turnout: The MRP approach addresses the question of turnout by basing it upon demographics, rather than self-reported turnout, where people tend to consistently overestimate their own likelihood to turnout, leading to problems of understating the turnout gap between old and young voters.
A lot of people thinking “Reform *surely* can’t get around 20%” are ignoring 3 things for me.
1) A few weeks of Farage on the TV, and more potential polls showing the Tories very far behind Labour, might make a lot of voters think “Sod it, I’m voting Reform”. Farage’s stated strategy is to reverse takeover the Tory Party - on Friday he might explicitly say “Rishi Sunak won’t be PM, but in a few years, I could be”
2) The 2019 European elections are of course not the same type or election nor political climate as now, but we saw 30% of votes go to the BXP in that. Another election where people thought “Well, the Tories can’t win anyway, and what’s the point”.
3) A lot of current Tory voters may warm to the LDs once Ed Davey gets a chance to be on TV a bit more in the campaign, and if the Tories look more defeated. This could swing a lot of Tory/LD marginals.
This is not to say it *will* happen but it certainly *can*.
Agree with all point except your number 2. Despite being a Europhile I fully accept a lot of the criticism that the EU Parliament is a toothless wonder. People take UK Parliament elections far more seriously as a result.
*I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.
Yeah something is going on. I just can’t see Reform doing that well. I suspect that some level of systemic poll error is occurring but who knows. I could get them to 7-9% but 17 is a stretch and outpolling the Tories I can’t see at all. Unfortunately from here on in it’s going to be impossible for the issues to get a look in as all the journalists orgasm over a potentially dodgy narrative.
The other possibility is that right wing voters worried about immigration and other ReFUK staples a) know Labour's won this election already and b) know the Conservatives have been in power 14 years and brought about most of the current situation.
In that circumstance, do you vote Conservative, for more of the last 14 years, or go, well, at least if I vote for Nige and his lot, I've expressed my views that the Conservative party have stuffed up royally on immigration etc, and the rump Con party that remains post GE will lurch rightwards?
TL;DR, what's the point in voting Conservative if you're vaguely right wing? Might as well cast a protest vote with ReFUK to cause the remaining Cons to lurch to the right post GE.
See also Leon's posts for a glimpse into this kind of voter.
I apologise in advance for the inherent boringness of what is effectively me giving a lecture in an article but I do have my reasons. Let me explain...
This article was written because of the European Parliament elections, due to start tomorrow. Ladbrokes priced it up using the political groups of the European Parliament, which is stupid because they often change their name after the election. I think they should have used the political parties at the European level instead.
That spark of irritation coincided with the YouTube discussion in the header and the discussion on PB about Mussolini's beginning, in which he used a list, and - bang - the article appeared.
I want political betting to expand beyond its Anglosphere/European limits, but to do that we must familiarise ourselves with things like the party list and the one-party state. Hence this lecture.
Sorry for being an arse, I'm sure there are multiple mistakes and I look forard to you pointing them out...
You couldn't be boring if you tried, Viewpoint, and I'm sure I'm typical of many here who are grateful for the thoughtful contributions from you and our various thread header writers.
You must however excuse me for boringly drawing attention to an extraordinary day at the PO Inquiry. Alice Perkins always promised to be an intriguing witness but I would never have guessed it would be her evidence that pulled so many strands together.
She's on again tomorrow, so if you can drag yourself away from the GE I strongly recommend that you catch up on today at the Inquiry and tune in tomorrow for more revelations (mostly unwitting ones) from Mrs Jack Straw.
I'm delighted by the result - there should be no place in politics for donations from dodgy people and I look forward to the Tories giving back the £15m they've got from Frank Hester.
*I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.
Shy Reformers?
They aren’t much given to shyness.
No, I think there's something to be said here. People are conflict averse. It could just be people answering the door, seeing a blue rosette with the greeting "hi, my name's Mark, and I'm with the local Conservative party..." and them just saying "ah, well, I voted for Boris so I'll vote for you again" to be polite.
Or maybe he's right and they are rarer than the polling is claiming.
Both deserve consideration. What would be really interesting would be if we heard from a Lib Dem activist in the same area. If they were getting loads of "fuck you I'm voting for Reform" when they see the orange ribbon, then we'd know.
In my experience canvassing in bad times as good people either say who they are voting for or say they’re undecided. When people are voting for a non-standard party they are exceptionally keen to tell you. When your party is not so popular they are definitely keen on being rude to you or making you feel terrible. I’m out of the loop on this election but if Tory canvassers are genuinely not finding Reform voters on the doorstep it’s probably because they are not there to be found.
A lot of people thinking “Reform *surely* can’t get around 20%” are ignoring 3 things for me.
1) A few weeks of Farage on the TV, and more potential polls showing the Tories very far behind Labour, might make a lot of voters think “Sod it, I’m voting Reform”. Farage’s stated strategy is to reverse takeover the Tory Party - on Friday he might explicitly say “Rishi Sunak won’t be PM, but in a few years, I could be”
2) The 2019 European elections are of course not the same type or election nor political climate as now, but we saw 30% of votes go to the BXP in that. Another election where people thought “Well, the Tories can’t win anyway, and what’s the point”.
3) A lot of current Tory voters may warm to the LDs once Ed Davey gets a chance to be on TV a bit more in the campaign, and if the Tories look more defeated. This could swing a lot of Tory/LD marginals.
This is not to say it *will* happen but it certainly *can*.
In the run up to the 2015 election, we got plenty of Farage... and the polling for UKIP declined. Similarly, why do you think people seeing more of Ed Davey will help the Lib Dems? It's not obvious to me he moves the dial one way or the other.
On 2015 that is a fair point, but I think the initial effect at least will be positive.
I think Davey has come across well so far, and even being able to remind wavering Tory voters of the existence of the LDs will likely do him well.
Poor old Rishi, YouGov really was the worst possible pollster to be first out the block post farage, consistently their best pollster by some distance. First phone poll of the campaign due tomorrow (probably, definitely this week ) - ipsos
*I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.
Whereabouts in the country have you been doorstepping?
Mark is down in Devon, and I can tell you from long experience that he has a sound reputation for accurate and honest reporting from the doorstep.
We know Reform votes aren't spread evenly and 2019 is dire becaose in Tory seats Brexit didn't stand so I don't have much data to work from but in Exeter Brexit got 2.5% so I would expect Reform to be between 2.5% to 5% in Devon (where 2.5% gives you a 9% national polling and 5% something closer to 15% nationally.
Those figures are personal ones so could also be a pile of crap....
A lot of people thinking “Reform *surely* can’t get around 20%” are ignoring 3 things for me.
1) A few weeks of Farage on the TV, and more potential polls showing the Tories very far behind Labour, might make a lot of voters think “Sod it, I’m voting Reform”. Farage’s stated strategy is to reverse takeover the Tory Party - on Friday he might explicitly say “Rishi Sunak won’t be PM, but in a few years, I could be”
2) The 2019 European elections are of course not the same type or election nor political climate as now, but we saw 30% of votes go to the BXP in that. Another election where people thought “Well, the Tories can’t win anyway, and what’s the point”.
3) A lot of current Tory voters may warm to the LDs once Ed Davey gets a chance to be on TV a bit more in the campaign, and if the Tories look more defeated. This could swing a lot of Tory/LD marginals.
This is not to say it *will* happen but it certainly *can*.
Agree with all point except your number 2. Despite being a Europhile I fully accept a lot of the criticism that the EU Parliament is a toothless wonder. People take UK Parliament elections far more seriously as a result.
That is fair yes, I meant it mainly as a point that 30% of voters were sufficiently motivated to vote for Farage’s party under specific circumstances. Polling crossover with the Tories and the headlines this generates may lend itself to more of that.
Imagine the Mail and Express front pages tomorrow: “Reform just behind the Tories in the polls!” it will certainly attract attention
*I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.
Yeah something is going on. I just can’t see Reform doing that well. I suspect that some level of systemic poll error is occurring but who knows. I could get them to 7-9% but 17 is a stretch and outpolling the Tories I can’t see at all. Unfortunately from here on in it’s going to be impossible for the issues to get a look in as all the journalists orgasm over a potentially dodgy narrative.
The other possibility is that right wing voters worried about immigration and other ReFUK staples a) know Labour's won this election already and b) know the Conservatives have been in power 14 years and brought about most of the current situation.
In that circumstance, do you vote Conservative, for more of the last 14 years, or go, well, at least if I vote for Nige and his lot, I've expressed my views that the Conservative party have stuffed up royally on immigration etc, and the rump Con party that remains post GE will lurch rightwards?
TL;DR, what's the point in voting Conservative if you're vaguely right wing? Might as well cast a protest vote with ReFUK to cause the remaining Cons to lurch to the right post GE.
See also Leon's posts for a glimpse into this kind of voter.
Also, if you’re just REALLY angry at the Tories and you want to punish them and horrify them - you don’t vote Starmer, you vote for Farage. That’s much scarier for Tories
I apologise in advance for the inherent boringness of what is effectively me giving a lecture in an article but I do have my reasons. Let me explain...
This article was written because of the European Parliament elections, due to start tomorrow. Ladbrokes priced it up using the political groups of the European Parliament, which is stupid because they often change their name after the election. I think they should have used the political parties at the European level instead.
That spark of irritation coincided with the YouTube discussion in the header and the discussion on PB about Mussolini's beginning, in which he used a list, and - bang - the article appeared.
I want political betting to expand beyond its Anglosphere/European limits, but to do that we must familiarise ourselves with things like the party list and the one-party state. Hence this lecture.
Sorry for being an arse, I'm sure there are multiple mistakes and I look forard to you pointing them out...
You couldn't be boring if you tried, Viewpoint, and I'm sure I'm typical of many here who are grateful for the thoughtful contributions from you and our various thread header writers.
You must however excuse me for boringly drawing attention to an extraordinary day at the PO Inquiry. Alice Perkins always promised to be an intriguing witness but I would never have guessed it would be her evidence that pulled so many strands together.
She's on again tomorrow, so if you can drag yourself away from the GE I strongly recommend that you catch up on today at the Inquiry and tune in tomorrow for more revelations (mostly unwitting ones) from Mrs Jack Straw.
What the Gazette cannot say but which I can is that she and her Board were not informed because they did not wish to be informed. You can connect the rest of the dots yourself.
*I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.
Whereabouts in the country have you been doorstepping?
Mark is down in Devon, and I can tell you from long experience that he has a sound reputation for accurate and honest reporting from the doorstep.
Devon is one of the least likely places to find reform voters, surely?
Its going to be red wallers and brexiteers in the cities and eastern England
The SW was pretty kippery when they were a thing.
I don’t believe this is Brexit related at all. This is all about the Tories and their failures (esp immigration and tax) and Farage just being a very good opportunist and populist
I apologise in advance for the inherent boringness of what is effectively me giving a lecture in an article but I do have my reasons. Let me explain...
This article was written because of the European Parliament elections, due to start tomorrow. Ladbrokes priced it up using the political groups of the European Parliament, which is stupid because they often change their name after the election. I think they should have used the political parties at the European level instead.
That spark of irritation coincided with the YouTube discussion in the header and the discussion on PB about Mussolini's beginning, in which he used a list, and - bang - the article appeared.
I want political betting to expand beyond its Anglosphere/European limits, but to do that we must familiarise ourselves with things like the party list and the one-party state. Hence this lecture.
Sorry for being an arse, I'm sure there are multiple mistakes and I look forard to you pointing them out...
You couldn't be boring if you tried, Viewpoint, and I'm sure I'm typical of many here who are grateful for the thoughtful contributions from you and our various thread header writers.
You must however excuse me for boringly drawing attention to an extraordinary day at the PO Inquiry. Alice Perkins always promised to be an intriguing witness but I would never have guessed it would be her evidence that pulled so many strands together.
She's on again tomorrow, so if you can drag yourself away from the GE I strongly recommend that you catch up on today at the Inquiry and tune in tomorrow for more revelations (mostly unwitting ones) from Mrs Jack Straw.
What the Gazette cannot say but which I can is that she and her Board were not informed because they did not wish to be informed. You can connect the rest of the dots yourself.
You can see the head in the sand / carefully not allowing 2+2 to be put together in the BBC reporting.
A lot of people thinking “Reform *surely* can’t get around 20%” are ignoring 3 things for me.
1) A few weeks of Farage on the TV, and more potential polls showing the Tories very far behind Labour, might make a lot of voters think “Sod it, I’m voting Reform”. Farage’s stated strategy is to reverse takeover the Tory Party - on Friday he might explicitly say “Rishi Sunak won’t be PM, but in a few years, I could be”
2) The 2019 European elections are of course not the same type or election nor political climate as now, but we saw 30% of votes go to the BXP in that. Another election where people thought “Well, the Tories can’t win anyway, and what’s the point”.
3) A lot of current Tory voters may warm to the LDs once Ed Davey gets a chance to be on TV a bit more in the campaign, and if the Tories look more defeated. This could swing a lot of Tory/LD marginals.
This is not to say it *will* happen but it certainly *can*.
Agree with all point except your number 2. Despite being a Europhile I fully accept a lot of the criticism that the EU Parliament is a toothless wonder. People take UK Parliament elections far more seriously as a result.
That is fair yes, I meant it mainly as a point that 30% of voters were sufficiently motivated to vote for Farage’s party under specific circumstances. Polling crossover with the Tories and the headlines this generates may lend itself to more of that.
Imagine the Mail and Express front pages tomorrow: “Reform just behind the Tories in the polls!” it will certainly attract attention
I would point out that the Euro Elections here were often half of a GE turnout, and dominated by those who loved or loathed Europe. Allow for that and the BXP vote in 2019 may well have been half of what it would have been in a GE.
And of course those elections were at peak Brexit paralysis. This GE is not.
A lot of people thinking “Reform *surely* can’t get around 20%” are ignoring 3 things for me.
1) A few weeks of Farage on the TV, and more potential polls showing the Tories very far behind Labour, might make a lot of voters think “Sod it, I’m voting Reform”. Farage’s stated strategy is to reverse takeover the Tory Party - on Friday he might explicitly say “Rishi Sunak won’t be PM, but in a few years, I could be”
2) The 2019 European elections are of course not the same type or election nor political climate as now, but we saw 30% of votes go to the BXP in that. Another election where people thought “Well, the Tories can’t win anyway, and what’s the point”.
3) A lot of current Tory voters may warm to the LDs once Ed Davey gets a chance to be on TV a bit more in the campaign, and if the Tories look more defeated. This could swing a lot of Tory/LD marginals.
This is not to say it *will* happen but it certainly *can*.
In the run up to the 2015 election, we got plenty of Farage... and the polling for UKIP declined. Similarly, why do you think people seeing more of Ed Davey will help the Lib Dems? It's not obvious to me he moves the dial one way or the other.
2015 was a very different kind of election. Back then the Tories benefitted from the SNP riding high and the Lib Dems collapsing, and they had a credible incumbent Prime Minister.
On the YouGov, we should see what everyone else comes up with, but one thing i would argue is that the fact that Corbyn was so marmite, pushed up both main parties in 2017 and 2019.
I predict that with Starmer and Sunak both being fairly dull, that we will see the Con/Lab combined share drop back this time. I would bet on it being <70% if there was a market.
Will be interesting to see what the viewing figures are for the 7-way debate vs.the 2-way debate
Have I missed a new PB rule where @BartholomewRoberts allowed to “reallocate” polls he personally doesn’t like?
Can we all do this? I’d like to “reallocate” the last Opinium so the SNP are on minus 5. Thanks
Have I missed a new PB rule that we can't make our own predictions?
It's a betting site, to bet you need to be making predictions.
I gave my prediction to my own username and never implied it was anyone else's work, it's just my best guess with the date and evidence and logic I have. For reasons others have subsequently acknowledged are reasonable. If you don't, that's entirely fair, but I'm explaining my thinking.
*I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.
Yeah something is going on. I just can’t see Reform doing that well. I suspect that some level of systemic poll error is occurring but who knows. I could get them to 7-9% but 17 is a stretch and outpolling the Tories I can’t see at all. Unfortunately from here on in it’s going to be impossible for the issues to get a look in as all the journalists orgasm over a potentially dodgy narrative.
The other possibility is that right wing voters worried about immigration and other ReFUK staples a) know Labour's won this election already and b) know the Conservatives have been in power 14 years and brought about most of the current situation.
In that circumstance, do you vote Conservative, for more of the last 14 years, or go, well, at least if I vote for Nige and his lot, I've expressed my views that the Conservative party have stuffed up royally on immigration etc, and the rump Con party that remains post GE will lurch rightwards?
TL;DR, what's the point in voting Conservative if you're vaguely right wing? Might as well cast a protest vote with ReFUK to cause the remaining Cons to lurch to the right post GE.
See also Leon's posts for a glimpse into this kind of voter.
Also, if you’re just REALLY angry at the Tories and you want to punish them and horrify them - you don’t vote Starmer, you vote for Farage. That’s much scarier for Tories
There would be joy throughout the nation right now were it not for the fact we are getting that utter bunch of turds in labour to strut about for 5 years. The real party will be when they are exterminated in 2029
*I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.
Whereabouts in the country have you been doorstepping?
Mark is down in Devon, and I can tell you from long experience that he has a sound reputation for accurate and honest reporting from the doorstep.
We know Reform votes aren't spread evenly and 2019 is dire becaose in Tory seats Brexit didn't stand so I don't have much data to work from but in Exeter Brexit got 2.5% so I would expect Reform to be between 2.5% to 5% in Devon (where 2.5% gives you a 9% national polling and 5% something closer to 15% nationally.
Those figures are personal ones so could also be a pile of crap....
Have I missed a new PB rule where @BartholomewRoberts allowed to “reallocate” polls he personally doesn’t like?
Can we all do this? I’d like to “reallocate” the last Opinium so the SNP are on minus 5. Thanks
Have I missed a new PB rule that we can't make our own predictions?
It's a betting site, to bet you need to be making predictions.
I gave my prediction to my own username and never implied it was anyone else's work, it's just my best guess with the date and evidence and logic I have. For reasons others have subsequently acknowledged are reasonable. If you don't, that's entirely fair, but I'm explaining my thinking.
Leon was being Leon.
I see no problem with you taking the figures and showing how you were changing them to reflect the fact Reform / Green figures are implausibly high - it's what I've done for a while albeit I operate on the basis that most reform voters won't actually go out and vote...
*I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.
Yeah something is going on. I just can’t see Reform doing that well. I suspect that some level of systemic poll error is occurring but who knows. I could get them to 7-9% but 17 is a stretch and outpolling the Tories I can’t see at all. Unfortunately from here on in it’s going to be impossible for the issues to get a look in as all the journalists orgasm over a potentially dodgy narrative.
The other possibility is that right wing voters worried about immigration and other ReFUK staples a) know Labour's won this election already and b) know the Conservatives have been in power 14 years and brought about most of the current situation.
In that circumstance, do you vote Conservative, for more of the last 14 years, or go, well, at least if I vote for Nige and his lot, I've expressed my views that the Conservative party have stuffed up royally on immigration etc, and the rump Con party that remains post GE will lurch rightwards?
TL;DR, what's the point in voting Conservative if you're vaguely right wing? Might as well cast a protest vote with ReFUK to cause the remaining Cons to lurch to the right post GE.
See also Leon's posts for a glimpse into this kind of voter.
Also, if you’re just REALLY angry at the Tories and you want to punish them and horrify them - you don’t vote Starmer, you vote for Farage. That’s much scarier for Tories
There would be joy throughout the nation right now were it not for the fact we are getting that utter bunch of turds in labour to strut about for 5 years. The real party will be when they are exterminated in 2029
The Tory party finally destroyed in 2028/9. Feels about the correct time scale...
Have I missed a new PB rule where @BartholomewRoberts allowed to “reallocate” polls he personally doesn’t like?
Can we all do this? I’d like to “reallocate” the last Opinium so the SNP are on minus 5. Thanks
Have I missed a new PB rule that we can't make our own predictions?
It's a betting site, to bet you need to be making predictions.
I gave my prediction to my own username and never implied it was anyone else's work, it's just my best guess with the date and evidence and logic I have. For reasons others have subsequently acknowledged are reasonable. If you don't, that's entirely fair, but I'm explaining my thinking.
Leon was being Leon.
I see no problem with you taking the figures and showing how you were changing them to reflect the fact Reform / Green figures are implausibly high - it's what I've done for a while albeit I operate on the basis that most reform voters won't actually go out and vote...
No, you’re both proving OGH’s golden rule: a rogue poll is a poll whose numbers you do not like
*I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.
Yeah something is going on. I just can’t see Reform doing that well. I suspect that some level of systemic poll error is occurring but who knows. I could get them to 7-9% but 17 is a stretch and outpolling the Tories I can’t see at all. Unfortunately from here on in it’s going to be impossible for the issues to get a look in as all the journalists orgasm over a potentially dodgy narrative.
The other possibility is that right wing voters worried about immigration and other ReFUK staples a) know Labour's won this election already and b) know the Conservatives have been in power 14 years and brought about most of the current situation.
In that circumstance, do you vote Conservative, for more of the last 14 years, or go, well, at least if I vote for Nige and his lot, I've expressed my views that the Conservative party have stuffed up royally on immigration etc, and the rump Con party that remains post GE will lurch rightwards?
TL;DR, what's the point in voting Conservative if you're vaguely right wing? Might as well cast a protest vote with ReFUK to cause the remaining Cons to lurch to the right post GE.
See also Leon's posts for a glimpse into this kind of voter.
Also, if you’re just REALLY angry at the Tories and you want to punish them and horrify them - you don’t vote Starmer, you vote for Farage. That’s much scarier for Tories
There would be joy throughout the nation right now were it not for the fact we are getting that utter bunch of turds in labour to strut about for 5 years. The real party will be when they are exterminated in 2029
The Tory party finally destroyed in 2028/9. Feels about the correct time scale...
Of course you know I was referring to Labour. But that's OK, I can wait for satisfaction 24 - Tories done in 29 - Labour follow
Poor old Rishi, YouGov really was the worst possible pollster to be first out the block post farage, consistently their best pollster by some distance. First phone poll of the campaign due tomorrow (probably, definitely this week ) - ipsos
Got to ask how does phone polling work now most people don't have landlines...
Imagine the scenes inside Number 10 right now. Remember Sunak absolutely didn’t have to call this vote, and he totally didn’t have to call it a week before the horrendous migration stats came out. But he did
Imagine the scenes inside Number 10 right now. Remember Sunak absolutely didn’t have to call this vote, and he totally didn’t have to call it a week before the horrendous migration stats came out. But he did
Hunker in the bunker with the future of the party spunker
Poor old Rishi, YouGov really was the worst possible pollster to be first out the block post farage, consistently their best pollster by some distance. First phone poll of the campaign due tomorrow (probably, definitely this week ) - ipsos
Got to ask how does phone polling work now most people don't have landlines...
IPSOS do get good samples though, and need less adjusting than most.
Imagine the scenes inside Number 10 right now. Remember Sunak absolutely didn’t have to call this vote, and he totally didn’t have to call it a week before the horrendous migration stats came out. But he did
So ask the question why did he call it now - what is going to hit us from September onwards which meant dealing the election was even worse than calling it now...
Wow, just caught up with that poll with just 2 percentage points between Tories and Reform.
I’m sure they’ll be taking VI from Labour as well, but I am pretty sure they won’t poll 17% on the day itself - but that said, RefUK vote siphoning is broadly going to hurt the Tories much more than Labour.
*I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.
Yeah something is going on. I just can’t see Reform doing that well. I suspect that some level of systemic poll error is occurring but who knows. I could get them to 7-9% but 17 is a stretch and outpolling the Tories I can’t see at all. Unfortunately from here on in it’s going to be impossible for the issues to get a look in as all the journalists orgasm over a potentially dodgy narrative.
The other possibility is that right wing voters worried about immigration and other ReFUK staples a) know Labour's won this election already and b) know the Conservatives have been in power 14 years and brought about most of the current situation.
In that circumstance, do you vote Conservative, for more of the last 14 years, or go, well, at least if I vote for Nige and his lot, I've expressed my views that the Conservative party have stuffed up royally on immigration etc, and the rump Con party that remains post GE will lurch rightwards?
TL;DR, what's the point in voting Conservative if you're vaguely right wing? Might as well cast a protest vote with ReFUK to cause the remaining Cons to lurch to the right post GE.
See also Leon's posts for a glimpse into this kind of voter.
Also, if you’re just REALLY angry at the Tories and you want to punish them and horrify them - you don’t vote Starmer, you vote for Farage. That’s much scarier for Tories
No - it is much scarier for the country to support a Trump supporting, anti vax and net zero, right wing party
Poor old Rishi, YouGov really was the worst possible pollster to be first out the block post farage, consistently their best pollster by some distance. First phone poll of the campaign due tomorrow (probably, definitely this week ) - ipsos
Got to ask how does phone polling work now most people don't have landlines...
No idea! Survation are doing 4, starting next Weds
Imagine the scenes inside Number 10 right now. Remember Sunak absolutely didn’t have to call this vote, and he totally didn’t have to call it a week before the horrendous migration stats came out. But he did
Migration was down on those stats and he won last night's debate with Yougov which no main voteshare poll has yet caught
Imagine the scenes inside Number 10 right now. Remember Sunak absolutely didn’t have to call this vote, and he totally didn’t have to call it a week before the horrendous migration stats came out. But he did
So ask the question why did he call it now - what is going to hit us from September onwards which meant dealing the election was even worse than calling it now...
It’s a very good question. And I have no answer. Does anyone?
Poor old Rishi, YouGov really was the worst possible pollster to be first out the block post farage, consistently their best pollster by some distance. First phone poll of the campaign due tomorrow (probably, definitely this week ) - ipsos
Got to ask how does phone polling work now most people don't have landlines...
*I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.
Yeah something is going on. I just can’t see Reform doing that well. I suspect that some level of systemic poll error is occurring but who knows. I could get them to 7-9% but 17 is a stretch and outpolling the Tories I can’t see at all. Unfortunately from here on in it’s going to be impossible for the issues to get a look in as all the journalists orgasm over a potentially dodgy narrative.
The other possibility is that right wing voters worried about immigration and other ReFUK staples a) know Labour's won this election already and b) know the Conservatives have been in power 14 years and brought about most of the current situation.
In that circumstance, do you vote Conservative, for more of the last 14 years, or go, well, at least if I vote for Nige and his lot, I've expressed my views that the Conservative party have stuffed up royally on immigration etc, and the rump Con party that remains post GE will lurch rightwards?
TL;DR, what's the point in voting Conservative if you're vaguely right wing? Might as well cast a protest vote with ReFUK to cause the remaining Cons to lurch to the right post GE.
See also Leon's posts for a glimpse into this kind of voter.
Also, if you’re just REALLY angry at the Tories and you want to punish them and horrify them - you don’t vote Starmer, you vote for Farage. That’s much scarier for Tories
And best news of all for Starmer as a divided right makes it easier for him to get a bigger majority under FPTP so he can be as Woke as he likes as PM
Is the Yougov fieldwork all from before the debate ?
Presumably a one or two perc cent bounce since then, perhaps the Tories are in the 20-22% zone. Another two weeks of clawing on about tax, and they may get another four per cent, or so, perhaps, too..
Poor old Rishi, YouGov really was the worst possible pollster to be first out the block post farage, consistently their best pollster by some distance. First phone poll of the campaign due tomorrow (probably, definitely this week ) - ipsos
Got to ask how does phone polling work now most people don't have landlines...
Wow, just caught up with that poll with just 2 percentage points between Tories and Reform.
I’m sure they’ll be taking VI from Labour as well, but I am pretty sure they won’t poll 17% on the day itself - but that said, RefUK vote siphoning is broadly going to hurt the Tories much more than Labour.
Yep, I mean it could drag Labour to 38 or so but if refcon are then splitting 40 between them it's still a slaughter if it goes evenly(ish)
I don't expect it but if there is a Tory gain in England my pick is Cramlington and Killingworth. This election will disguise it but there is a long-term trend towards Conservatives in the towns of Northern England, boundary changes have made a Tory gain in GE19 (Blyth Valley) into a notional Labour seat but only by less than 2% and that was despite a sizeable Brexit party vote (7.9%). The incumbent MP for much of the new constituency is standing again, the Labour candidate isn't a councillor or seems to have much of a profile. The polls would have to narrow and the Brexit/Reform vote will have to be squeezed but it doesn't seem completely impossible.
It isn't. But the seat isn't the successor to Blyth Valley at all. It's about half of it (Cramlington), although the more Tory half. The rest of it (more than half) isn't even town. It's from strongly Labour N Tyneside, and Newcastle.
Completely agree with everything you said - but I can't spot anything more likely in England. Probably missed something obvious.
Lib Dem seats behave weirdly, and if the Tories were just down by 10 points or so, you couldn't rule out a Tory gain from someone like Tim Farron. If the Tories are really polling near the teens, though, that seems implausible.
*I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.
Yeah something is going on. I just can’t see Reform doing that well. I suspect that some level of systemic poll error is occurring but who knows. I could get them to 7-9% but 17 is a stretch and outpolling the Tories I can’t see at all. Unfortunately from here on in it’s going to be impossible for the issues to get a look in as all the journalists orgasm over a potentially dodgy narrative.
The other possibility is that right wing voters worried about immigration and other ReFUK staples a) know Labour's won this election already and b) know the Conservatives have been in power 14 years and brought about most of the current situation.
In that circumstance, do you vote Conservative, for more of the last 14 years, or go, well, at least if I vote for Nige and his lot, I've expressed my views that the Conservative party have stuffed up royally on immigration etc, and the rump Con party that remains post GE will lurch rightwards?
TL;DR, what's the point in voting Conservative if you're vaguely right wing? Might as well cast a protest vote with ReFUK to cause the remaining Cons to lurch to the right post GE.
See also Leon's posts for a glimpse into this kind of voter.
Also, if you’re just REALLY angry at the Tories and you want to punish them and horrify them - you don’t vote Starmer, you vote for Farage. That’s much scarier for Tories
No - it is much scarier for the country to support a Trump supporting, anti vax and net zero, right wing party
Well, if Trump wins and Farage is PM at least that’s good for the spesh relaysh
Poor old Rishi, YouGov really was the worst possible pollster to be first out the block post farage, consistently their best pollster by some distance. First phone poll of the campaign due tomorrow (probably, definitely this week ) - ipsos
Got to ask how does phone polling work now most people don't have landlines...
Semaphore.
Was more previously you would randomly pick a phone code (say 0191) and randomly dial numbers until you got 20-30 answers, then move on to the next town / city.
You can't do that now so regional gaps is going to be harder to identify..
*I haven't even found evidence for the 9% on the doorsteps. Not close.
Whereabouts in the country have you been doorstepping?
Mark is down in Devon, and I can tell you from long experience that he has a sound reputation for accurate and honest reporting from the doorstep.
Devon is one of the least likely places to find reform voters, surely?
Its going to be red wallers and brexiteers in the cities and eastern England
The SW was pretty kippery when they were a thing.
I don’t believe this is Brexit related at all. This is all about the Tories and their failures (esp immigration and tax) and Farage just being a very good opportunist and populist
On my travels in the last election, previous UKIP VI was a pretty good map onto Brexit Party. I don’t think Farage is suddenly fishing in a different pond, an that pond has a limit lower than 20%
The Acolyte drops on Disney today, I think. Someone should remind TSE, as it will give him something to watch while convalescing.
I presume it will be another pile of shit from Disney Star Wars. The only half decent one was Andor, and Disey themselves thought it was rubbish so didn't put it out for ages.
The main information from the change in yougov methodology is that nationally the LibDems gain 2% from Labour due to tactical voting in particular seats.
If broadly this impacts 65 seats the LibDems are targeting with no impact in the remaining 90% of seats, this would require a 20% vote shift from Labour to the LibDems in their target seats.
Poor old Rishi, YouGov really was the worst possible pollster to be first out the block post farage, consistently their best pollster by some distance. First phone poll of the campaign due tomorrow (probably, definitely this week ) - ipsos
Got to ask how does phone polling work now most people don't have landlines...
Imagine the scenes inside Number 10 right now. Remember Sunak absolutely didn’t have to call this vote, and he totally didn’t have to call it a week before the horrendous migration stats came out. But he did
Migration was down on those stats and he won last night's debate with Yougov which no main voteshare poll has yet caught
It was down from seventy twelve billion to just ninety thousand gazillion
Thing is, somehow the Tories had gotten away with their tremendous betrayal on migration. The issue was only slowing rising up the polls - but that was because, as the polls showed, people had no idea of the stats. They underestimated them by a factor of ten
Then along comes big nigel and says “2.4 million in 3 years” and everyone goes wtf that cannot be true, yet it is true. Kaboom
I don't expect it but if there is a Tory gain in England my pick is Cramlington and Killingworth. This election will disguise it but there is a long-term trend towards Conservatives in the towns of Northern England, boundary changes have made a Tory gain in GE19 (Blyth Valley) into a notional Labour seat but only by less than 2% and that was despite a sizeable Brexit party vote (7.9%). The incumbent MP for much of the new constituency is standing again, the Labour candidate isn't a councillor or seems to have much of a profile. The polls would have to narrow and the Brexit/Reform vote will have to be squeezed but it doesn't seem completely impossible.
It isn't. But the seat isn't the successor to Blyth Valley at all. It's about half of it (Cramlington), although the more Tory half. The rest of it (more than half) isn't even town. It's from strongly Labour N Tyneside, and Newcastle.
Completely agree with everything you said - but I can't spot anything more likely in England. Probably missed something obvious.
Lib Dem seats behave weirdly, and if the Tories were just down by 10 points or so, you couldn't rule out a Tory gain from someone like Tim Farron. If the Tories are really polling near the teens, though, that seems implausible.
Yep, but even then Tim Farron's seat is notionally Tory so that can only be a Tory hold.
There's your housing crisis right there, together with your infrastructure investment crisis and your selling England by the pound crisis.
The build to rent market is buoyant and in theory should allow a lot of houses to be built - however there are major supply side issues, firstly in land availability (and the price of the land) then in the amount of labour available to build the houses..
Comments
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE let us have just one poll with Crossover. Just one. Scenes
I gave one example yesterday - a bit of careful planning and Windsor / Maidenhead (both currently Tory holds) could easily be won provided Labour concentrates in Windsor and lets the Lib Dems focus on Maidenhead...
The LDs have had a poor campaign so far by most of the usual metrics. They have hardly registered on the National stage apart from a couple of Harry Worth performances and a more nimble one by the Henley Boat Crew. Yet drive around here and all you see is yellow diamonds - and this is in a seat where they start a distant third.
When sporting Index put their initial spreads up RCS, Casino Royale and me all thought they were a sell on 36,but they are now up to 40 and show no sign of dipping. I'm refraining from a bet, but if I am tempted, I think I'd be a buyer now, if only for the God-given gift to them of Mr Farage.
Reallocating Reform to will not vote inflates all other parties at the scale of how they're currently polling. So this is +4 Lab, +2 Tory, +1 LD in the calculation. Then the remaining switching to main parties is disproportionately to the Tories, +1 Lab, +3 Tory, +1 LD in the calculation, but this disproportionate change doesn't overcome the scaling effect.
Leading to net changes of +5, +5, +2 respectively.
That yougov is not the current state of play in this election, where Labour are 43% Con 24% and Reform 12% at most. My prediction is no other polls out in next few days will show a Ref surge or anything over 12%, nor will they show Labour close to 40% (though in mitigation Labour to get a bounce in later fieldwork after Starmer clearly won the debate).
Not sure if a formal deselection motion is possible, to reverse the initial election?
So not sure about Baxter. Also we need post debate polls too to get a clearer picture rather than just one that caught all Farage's publicity from his return as Reform leader
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49626-general-election-2024-how-have-our-methodology-changes-affected-voting-intention
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/1516
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=19&LAB=40&LIB=10&Reform=17&Green=2&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=37.1&SCOTLIB=8.3&SCOTReform=2.4&SCOTGreen=2.8&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=31&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
1) A few weeks of Farage on the TV, and more potential polls showing the Tories very far behind Labour, might make a lot of voters think “Sod it, I’m voting Reform”. Farage’s stated strategy is to reverse takeover the Tory Party - on Friday he might explicitly say “Rishi Sunak won’t be PM, but in a few years, I could be”
2) The 2019 European elections are of course not the same type or election nor political climate as now, but we saw 30% of votes go to the BXP in that. Another election where people thought “Well, the Tories can’t win anyway, and what’s the point”.
3) A lot of current Tory voters may warm to the LDs once Ed Davey gets a chance to be on TV a bit more in the campaign, and if the Tories look more defeated. This could swing a lot of Tory/LD marginals.
This is not to say it *will* happen but it certainly *can*.
He lost.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-69091623
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49614-using-mrp-for-our-voting-intention-polling
1 Constituency question: We drive the MRP off a question asking people how they will vote in their specific constituency, which better picks up tactical voting considerations. At the present time, this tends to increase Liberal Democrat support by around 2 points and decrease Labour support by a similar amount.
2 Don’t knows: The MRP model effectively reallocates don't knows. Rather than historical approaches that have done this by assuming those people will vote the way they did in the past, it does so by modelling their vote based on those of similar political background and demographics.
3 Turnout: The MRP approach addresses the question of turnout by basing it upon demographics, rather than self-reported turnout, where people tend to consistently overestimate their own likelihood to turnout, leading to problems of understating the turnout gap between old and young voters.
And Drakeford kicks off against his own government as they shelve his school holiday proposals
What a mess
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy99jy1p3kpo
In that circumstance, do you vote Conservative, for more of the last 14 years, or go, well, at least if I vote for Nige and his lot, I've expressed my views that the Conservative party have stuffed up royally on immigration etc, and the rump Con party that remains post GE will lurch rightwards?
TL;DR, what's the point in voting Conservative if you're vaguely right wing? Might as well cast a protest vote with ReFUK to cause the remaining Cons to lurch to the right post GE.
See also Leon's posts for a glimpse into this kind of voter.
Can we all do this? I’d like to “reallocate” the last Opinium so the SNP are on minus 5. Thanks
https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/news/post-office-live-former-chair-feels-badly-let-down-by-general-counsel/5119900.article
https://x.com/damocrat/status/1798376409209131033
I think Davey has come across well so far, and even being able to remind wavering Tory voters of the existence of the LDs will likely do him well.
First phone poll of the campaign due tomorrow (probably, definitely this week ) - ipsos
Its going to be red wallers and brexiteers in the cities and eastern England
Those figures are personal ones so could also be a pile of crap....
Imagine the Mail and Express front pages tomorrow: “Reform just behind the Tories in the polls!” it will certainly attract attention
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c88847v14e3o
The inquiry was shown a handwritten note from Ms Perkins about a meeting on 27 September 2011 with Angus Grant, an auditor at Ernst & Young (EY).
'A risk for us'
According to the note, Mr Grant had flagged concerns about Horizon, describing the program as "a real risk for us".
He also warned that if Horizon was not accurate, then EY would not be able to sign off Post Office company accounts.
And of course those elections were at peak Brexit paralysis. This GE is not.
If we look at the combined Con/Lab share:
2019 - 76%
2017 - 82%
2015 - 67%
2010 - 65%
2005 - 68%
2001 - 73%
1997 - 74%
1992 - 76%
1987 - 73%
1983 - 70%
I predict that with Starmer and Sunak both being fairly dull, that we will see the Con/Lab combined share drop back this time. I would bet on it being <70% if there was a market.
Will be interesting to see what the viewing figures are for the 7-way debate vs.the 2-way debate
It's a betting site, to bet you need to be making predictions.
I gave my prediction to my own username and never implied it was anyone else's work, it's just my best guess with the date and evidence and logic I have. For reasons others have subsequently acknowledged are reasonable. If you don't, that's entirely fair, but I'm explaining my thinking.
I see no problem with you taking the figures and showing how you were changing them to reflect the fact Reform / Green figures are implausibly high - it's what I've done for a while albeit I operate on the basis that most reform voters won't actually go out and vote...
24 - Tories done in
29 - Labour follow
Labour 0%
Tories 0%
Lib Dems 100%
Reform 0%
I see the game changing debate had much impact.
I’m sure they’ll be taking VI from Labour as well, but I am pretty sure they won’t poll 17% on the day itself - but that said, RefUK vote siphoning is broadly going to hurt the Tories much more than Labour.
Presumably a one or two perc cent bounce since then, perhaps the Tories are in the 20-22% zone. Another two weeks of clawing on about tax, and they may get another four per cent, or so, perhaps, too..
https://news.gallup.com/poll/110383/does-gallup-call-cell-phones.aspx
The difference is it the Tories are also at around 20%, with Labour far ahead, that they start to be at risk of a crushing defeat.
It depends whether Farage can build momentum. And if Davey can cut through at all with his more human approach to politics.
You can't do that now so regional gaps is going to be harder to identify..
Someone should remind TSE, as it will give him something to watch while convalescing.
If broadly this impacts 65 seats the LibDems are targeting with no impact in the remaining 90% of seats, this would require a 20% vote shift from Labour to the LibDems in their target seats.
Blackstone the latest to seek to cash in on rental sector as demand for homes soars
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/04/thousands-uk-rentals-blackstone-uk-housing-shortage/ (£££)
There's your housing crisis right there, together with your infrastructure investment crisis and your selling England by the pound crisis.
Thing is, somehow the Tories had gotten away with their tremendous betrayal on migration. The issue was only slowing rising up the polls - but that was because, as the polls showed, people had no idea of the stats. They underestimated them by a factor of ten
Then along comes big nigel and says “2.4 million in 3 years” and everyone goes wtf that cannot be true, yet it is true. Kaboom