Starmer smashing him into bits: "if the plan is working why are you calling an election" "If the plan is working why is everyone broke?" "How can you say I am putting up taxes when you've put taxes up 26 times to the highest level in 70 years"
Sunak already - as I said he would be - angry, snappy, aggressive. And we're all of 10 minutes in.
I’m expecting Rishi to throw the zinger I have given him: Starmer’s planned tax raid on struggling private schools, so beloved in their community and so vital to that aspiration of families that made UK so great in the first place, shows the real cheeks of Starmer’s arse. It will make Starmer stumble. He will have no answer. The media can then hammer it home over the next 4 weeks and reshape the polling.
Watch for it - MoonRabbit’s Hay Maker!
Or Starmer just adopts the Streeting resposnse and feints before landing a crushing blow on Mr Sunak's chin.
I suspect our debate would be a lot more exciting than the real one!
The first UK-Elect forecast of this campaign has been published on the UK-Elect website ( www.ukelect.co.uk ). It is based on the national and regional opinion poll averages and shows a Labour majority of "only" 154. (Lab 401, Con 178, LD 31, SNP 16). https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240604ForecastUK.html
Is this done on UNS? I note your Independent in Devon. Not a criticism - just asking for clarification
It's using the current default UK-Elect forecast settings, which blend UNS with other forecasting techniques, and is using a mix of GB and Scottish and Welsh poll percentages. What it currently doesn't do is use the final candidates list, which will add various incumbency and tactical voting considerations to the mix.
Opening statements Sunak – A plan and bold action is needed. No one knows what Labour will do, but you know me. I’ll cut taxes and reduce immigration. Clear plan for a secure future for your family. Starmer – Election all about choice, turn the page on chaos and rebuild with Labour. I have a practical plan, and have changed Labour. Will make the country work for your family.
Rishi stiff, but clear. Starmer workmanlike.
Been watching Only Fans, has he?
I bet milkshake girl is chuffed to bits given the free advertising her Onlyfans page is getting.
Indeed. One of the world’s most popular websites has splashed her entire showreel on its front page. You simply cannot buy that sort of publicity,
Why is Starmer not refuting the tax rise point. Foolish.
Because taxes are going to go up?
The only lie is that it will be due to Labour. If, by some lamentation of black swans, Rishi is still PM on July 5, his chancellor will have to put them up as well.
I honestly don't think a question about how to connect with people who are suffering is that useful, but moderator bringing it back to question of empathy.
Sunak says he understands and speaks to people about it. Starmer says his dad was a toolmaker and his mum a nurse, he knows what it is like to not be able to pay bills.
Delivery is decent enough so far, but Rishi needs to mix up saying his plan and Labour will raise taxes, he keeps talking over the moderator.
Opening statements Sunak – A plan and bold action is needed. No one knows what Labour will do, but you know me. I’ll cut taxes and reduce immigration. Clear plan for a secure future for your family. Starmer – Election all about choice, turn the page on chaos and rebuild with Labour. I have a practical plan, and have changed Labour. Will make the country work for your family.
Rishi stiff, but clear. Starmer workmanlike.
Been watching Only Fans, has he?
I bet milkshake girl is chuffed to bits given the free advertising her Onlyfans page is getting.
Why is Starmer not refuting the tax rise point. Foolish.
Because taxes are going to go up?
The only lie is that it will be due to Labour. If, by some lamentation of black swans, Rishi is still PM on July 5, his chancellor will have to put them up as well.
Starmer already listed Sunak's 26 tax rises and highest for 70 years. People know their taxes have gone up so much. Sunak can keep saying "Starmer will raise your taxes" and talk over everyone. But people know Sunak *has already* put up their taxes because they can count.
If the Tories did face an extinction level event taking them below 100 significantly (I think they'll avoid this...just) I wonder if the survivors will become famous figures of legend in years to come. It is not always the case that places which survive such an event represent the true strongholds which will never be lost after all.
One of the facts that always astounds me is that of the 8 seats the LDs retained in 2015, they only hold 2 of them today, both with the same MP
Orkney and Shetland Westmoreland and Lonsdale
In some of the others they are still in contention and will probably win them back (as they have already won back several lost in 2015), but in others despite holding on in 2015 they are falling back and and are not even close for second anymore like Leeds North West.
Tim Farron has fought W and L 6 times and won 5. 3 times he has had only a wafer thin majority. His current majority is under 2000. Even with very pro Tory boundary changes he will walk it by miles this time.
There is compelling evidence that to win this seat you have to be called Tim. This election will make 8 Tims in a row. (Sheep are very traditional and hate changing their voting habits. They outnumber the people about 100-1.)
Opening statements Sunak – A plan and bold action is needed. No one knows what Labour will do, but you know me. I’ll cut taxes and reduce immigration. Clear plan for a secure future for your family. Starmer – Election all about choice, turn the page on chaos and rebuild with Labour. I have a practical plan, and have changed Labour. Will make the country work for your family.
Rishi stiff, but clear. Starmer workmanlike.
Been watching Only Fans, has he?
I bet milkshake girl is chuffed to bits given the free advertising her Onlyfans page is getting.
Indeed. One of the world’s most popular websites has splashed her entire showreel on its front page. You simply cannot buy that sort of publicity,
Moderator isn't doing a great job. Don't know how Starmer counteracts this without following Sunak into a shouting match. Maybe the idea is to look statesman-like, but Sunak keeps getting this £2000 tax hit in unopposed.
In all seriousness, if Putin bombing the fuck out of Uke infra means no aircon and no electric fans then JEEZZ
Odessa is HOT and humid in the summer
"In all seriousness..." Unspoofable.
I’m saying that being here in Odessa brings home what a life without reliable mains power is like. Everywhere has portable generators. Aircon is an unrealistic luxury. The internet can go off any moment. Mobile signal itself can end. All electric transactions can become unfeasible at any moment. No lights after 9pm. And so on
Apply that to your own daily life
Had a similar experience with water recently. Eight days ago the water came out of the tap discoloured. Had it tested - it's full of e coli because slurry washed off the cattle field has found it's easy into the borehole. This isn't that uncommon because all the cattle farmers break the rules on slurry spreading (but mostly I forgive them because the cheese is so good). So, anyway, we've been using bottled water for drinking and cooking, and trying not to think too much about what's going through the dishwasher, shower, etc, while decisions are made about fitting a filter and other remedial steps.
But on Saturday night the well water stopped completely. Not even any water for flushing the khazi. Complete disaster. Desperate situation. Had it run dry? Would we need to drill a new well? How long would it take to get connected to the mains? (Probably never, because they're at capacity locally)
Luckily, we managed to pull the pump up, and it had merely been a bit clogged with silt. After cleaning it up a bit we could drop it back down (with the rope shortened by a foot) and we had our (still polluted) water supply restored within 14 hours.
It did make me realise how much we take it for granted and come to rely on it unthinkingly.
The baffling thing about this is that we're two questions in, with direct detailed examples of how things are broken, and both answered by Sunak as to why everything is brilliant because the plan is working.
Now we have groans from the audience because Starmer just called out that Sunak is openly lying and Sunak insists that 7.5m is a lower number than 7.2m
Opening statements Sunak – A plan and bold action is needed. No one knows what Labour will do, but you know me. I’ll cut taxes and reduce immigration. Clear plan for a secure future for your family. Starmer – Election all about choice, turn the page on chaos and rebuild with Labour. I have a practical plan, and have changed Labour. Will make the country work for your family.
Rishi stiff, but clear. Starmer workmanlike.
Been watching Only Fans, has he?
I bet milkshake girl is chuffed to bits given the free advertising her Onlyfans page is getting.
Indeed. One of the world’s most popular websites has splashed her entire showreel on its front page. You simply cannot buy that sort of publicity,
Aberdeenshire North Dumfries Dumfriesshire Berwickshire Richmond & Northallerton (Rishi wins by 3.3%) Skipton Thisk Gainsborough Sleaford Boston Rutland Lichfield (Micky Fab holds on by 0.1%) Kingswinford & South Staffs North Shropshire (despite LD win in by-election) South Shropshire North Herefordshire Stratford Banbury Hitchin NW Essex (Kemi Badenoch wins by 2.3%) Maldon Brentwood Hornchurch Castle Point (by 1.1%) North Devon Tiverton Mid Dorset (despite being a LD seat between 2001 and 2015) North Dorset Salisbury Christchurch New Forest E New Forest W NE Hampshire NW Hampshire East Hampshire Hamble Valley Fareham Chippenham (despite being a LD seat recently) Melksham Aldershot Farnham Arundel Sussex Weald Tonbridge Sevenoaks East Surrey Surrey Heath (despite LDs hoping to win Gove's former seat) Maidenhead Beaconsfield Mid Bucks Ruislip (by 1%) Orpington
South Holland and Deepings is missing. Surely not.....
Question – health and social care (England only) I’ve interacted with the NHS more than most, I’m a cancer survivor, son is a nurse, no one is brave enough to tell us the truth and admit NHS is broken. How long to fix it?
Starmer – very sorry to hear your situation, NHS is in my DNA, it is broken. 14 years in government to leave it in a worse state is unforgivable. Sunak promised waiting lists would be down, they are up.
Sunak – thanks for sharing story. Dad GP, mum pharmacist, I was surrounded by it. We have to be honest to the damage Covid has done. Put record funding in, doing more checks and scans. The NHS is safe in my hands.
Sunak saying progress is being made, Starmer interjects to a laugh by saying Rishi is supposed to be good at maths but has missed his targets. Crowd reacts strongly incredulously to Rishi's attempt to dodge the point.
Rishi rebounds by saying it is worse in Wales. Starmer back on the promise Rishi made, scoring points there.
Moderator asks what Starmer would do re strikes. He says he would resolve them, get in the room with them. Back onto thepoint of waiting lists, says he has a plan.
Sunak - says he is grateful to NHS and wants a fair agreement with doctors, gets some applause about not raising taxes to pay for it.
Starmer - cannot afford what doctors asking for, Moderator lets Rishi interrupt several times about what his plan is, he brings up Truss.
Rishi definitely trying to look strong and aggressive, scored a few points but Starmer unruffled so far.
Question – fixing NHS requires fixing social care, Boris Johnson said there was a plan ready to go, we’re still way Can you commit to a fully costed solution
Sunak – yes, pilot reforms to be rolled out. Starmer – We will have a plan for social care, fully funded, Starts with workforce, poor conditions.
Moderator still leetting Rishi come back with additional points, she needs to be firmer.
Why is Starmer not refuting the tax rise point. Foolish.
Because taxes are going to go up?
The only lie is that it will be due to Labour. If, by some lamentation of black swans, Rishi is still PM on July 5, his chancellor will have to put them up as well.
Starmer already listed Sunak's 26 tax rises and highest for 70 years. People know their taxes have gone up so much. Sunak can keep saying "Starmer will raise your taxes" and talk over everyone. But people know Sunak *has already* put up their taxes because they can count.
We're continually told that people support higher taxes.
But when they experience one their tune immediately changes.
And for every tax rise there's a spending rise.
But nobody acknowledges that they're benefiting from spending rises or pay rises.
We just get an endless whine about tax rises and prices rises with exaggerations as to how much they've increased.
Followed by demands for more handouts.
I'd be tempted to feel sympathy for politicians but then they bring some of it upon themselves.
Starmer probably connecting better emotionally but lacking detail for what we would do better. Rishi quite aggressive but also comes across as being in denial.
Comments
"if the plan is working why are you calling an election"
"If the plan is working why is everyone broke?"
"How can you say I am putting up taxes when you've put taxes up 26 times to the highest level in 70 years"
Sunak already - as I said he would be - angry, snappy, aggressive. And we're all of 10 minutes in.
I suspect our debate would be a lot more exciting than the real one!
It’s not great. Neither convince and seem a little tetchy with each other.
It is great how these politicians meet people who share their worldview that they can then use in anecdotes.
The only lie is that it will be due to Labour. If, by some lamentation of black swans, Rishi is still PM on July 5, his chancellor will have to put them up as well.
2nd like Arsenal.
Sunak says he understands and speaks to people about it. Starmer says his dad was a toolmaker and his mum a nurse, he knows what it is like to not be able to pay bills.
Delivery is decent enough so far, but Rishi needs to mix up saying his plan and Labour will raise taxes, he keeps talking over the moderator.
There is compelling evidence that to win this seat you have to be called Tim. This election will make 8 Tims in a row. (Sheep are very traditional and hate changing their voting habits. They outnumber the people about 100-1.)
Mr Sunak is being represented by his Madame Tussaud's waxworks. Which has been stood on a box.
Starmer - 'Tonight Matthew I'm going to be appearing as John Shuttlewort'h'
But on Saturday night the well water stopped completely. Not even any water for flushing the khazi. Complete disaster. Desperate situation. Had it run dry? Would we need to drill a new well? How long would it take to get connected to the mains? (Probably never, because they're at capacity locally)
Luckily, we managed to pull the pump up, and it had merely been a bit clogged with silt. After cleaning it up a bit we could drop it back down (with the rope shortened by a foot) and we had our (still polluted) water supply restored within 14 hours.
It did make me realise how much we take it for granted and come to rely on it unthinkingly.
Now we have groans from the audience because Starmer just called out that Sunak is openly lying and Sunak insists that 7.5m is a lower number than 7.2m
Big clap for Rishi’s slap down on Starmer’s faulty maths for the waiting list falling,
He’s screwering Starmer on the strikes.
Seriously pisspoor.
Lab 33.2%
Con 32.6%
Ref 24.3%
LD 5.3%
Grn 3.1%
Oth 1.5%
https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-labour-set-for-record-breaking-majority/
I’ve interacted with the NHS more than most, I’m a cancer survivor, son is a nurse, no one is brave enough to tell us the truth and admit NHS is broken. How long to fix it?
Starmer – very sorry to hear your situation, NHS is in my DNA, it is broken. 14 years in government to leave it in a worse state is unforgivable. Sunak promised waiting lists would be down, they are up.
Sunak – thanks for sharing story. Dad GP, mum pharmacist, I was surrounded by it. We have to be honest to the damage Covid has done. Put record funding in, doing more checks and scans. The NHS is safe in my hands.
Sunak saying progress is being made, Starmer interjects to a laugh by saying Rishi is supposed to be good at maths but has missed his targets. Crowd reacts strongly incredulously to Rishi's attempt to dodge the point.
Rishi rebounds by saying it is worse in Wales. Starmer back on the promise Rishi made, scoring points there.
Moderator asks what Starmer would do re strikes. He says he would resolve them, get in the room with them. Back onto thepoint of waiting lists, says he has a plan.
Sunak - says he is grateful to NHS and wants a fair agreement with doctors, gets some applause about not raising taxes to pay for it.
Starmer - cannot afford what doctors asking for, Moderator lets Rishi interrupt several times about what his plan is, he brings up Truss.
Rishi definitely trying to look strong and aggressive, scored a few points but Starmer unruffled so far.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeQOXMeSt8M
EDIT she has. Finally
Can you commit to a fully costed solution
Sunak – yes, pilot reforms to be rolled out.
Starmer – We will have a plan for social care, fully funded, Starts with workforce, poor conditions.
Moderator still leetting Rishi come back with additional points, she needs to be firmer.
But when they experience one their tune immediately changes.
And for every tax rise there's a spending rise.
But nobody acknowledges that they're benefiting from spending rises or pay rises.
We just get an endless whine about tax rises and prices rises with exaggerations as to how much they've increased.
Followed by demands for more handouts.
I'd be tempted to feel sympathy for politicians but then they bring some of it upon themselves.