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What’s tonight’s debate going to this betting market? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,287
    eek said:

    God still 29 days to go of this nonsense....

    I'm on holiday next week for a week so thankfully I'm spared a week of it. But I've just discovered that the temperature is currently 40C so I'm not expecting to do much beyond sitting in the shade trying to keep cool.
    No reason to miss a single post on pb.com then...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,132

    ...

    Regardless who got to the microphones first, There’s not a doubt from the three Debate polls, Starmer won big?

    Anyone want to dispute that?

    If it was a bad debate for Starmer and Labour, it certainly doesn’t show up anywhere in the debate polling, does it? 2 comfortable overall wins to one wafer thin loss. And across all of them Starmer cleans up in sub questions, who all report much the same thing in questions like on NHS and public services 63% to 25%, on the economy 52% to 36%, and defence and security 43% to 41%, as most honest" 54% to 29% and that the Labour leader "remained the calmest" 51% to 36%.

    Who do you trust, is probably the only worthwhile indicator to the election picture you can get from a bit of head to head showbiz like this?

    Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives? It’s being spun as good Sunak won 2-1 on the voted Conservative 2019 group, 60% to 33. Is that actually good, seriously? Surely that’s Labour going from 0 to 33, Tory’s from 100% to 60% in just a Tory voting sub group excluding all other voters? If that’s not horrifically bad in the bigger picture of add that to overall polling, define horrifically bad.

    Correct me where wrong, from 1992-1997 Blair only managed a mere 14% of direct switchers. And how much of that 60% above comes out and votes for the Conservatives? That would be difference between respectable result and wipe out, not just direct switchers.

    There is a VI poll out at 5pm which should give us a better idea*. But yes, your analysis seems fair.

    *METHODOLOGY CHANGE KLAXON
    I don't think your PB Tory friends need to worry about a methodology change if Rishi closes the gap.
    Well the point is the methodology change might lead to a change in the gap.
    That was my point, but the change in counting need not worry your PB Tory loyalists. A win is a win. Shape up!
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,864
    ydoethur said:

    Faiza is standing as an independent

    https://x.com/faizashaheen/status/1798369070657782177

    That loud scream of joy emanated from Sir Iain Duncan Smith.
    I thought he was supposed to be "the quiet man"?

    Top lolz if he wins and stands for leader again, though. Can't be any worse than the current front runners who are in with a chance of retaining their seats.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.

    BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?

    Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.

    (Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
    There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
    Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.

    Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
    Why didn't he go and get one. He could have said to the waiter "I'll be back"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,802
    Yes, this is exactly what the Tory Brains trust were hoping for after last night...

    @PGMcNamara

    🚨Punchy from @Keir_Starmer on **that** £2,000 tax line.

    About the Prime Minister @RishiSunak
    :

    “He resorted to LIES and he knew they were lies”

    https://x.com/PGMcNamara/status/1798370211541987724



    That's the clip for the evening news tonight...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,287

    God still 29 days to go of this nonsense....

    On the plus side, we are at least a third of the way through the campaign.

    "If you're going through hell, keep going..." Winston Churchill
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,511
    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.

    BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?

    Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.

    (Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
    You might like to read about this roughly coeval incident if you don't know about it, SSI.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prescott_punch
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKM6nn8ie2A
    I recall the Two-Jabs incident quite well. Feeling among folks here in Seattle who were then active in politics was tooooo bad John Prescott didn't hit the cowardly creep a few more times.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,552

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.

    BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?

    Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.

    (Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
    There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
    Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.

    Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
    George MacDonald Fraser https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_MacDonald_Fraser - wrote a lot of screenplays and some of the best semi-demi-fictional historical books ever.

    IIRC the incident was when they were filming Red Sonja - one of those LA restaurants that thought it was posh to demand all the dinners wore a tie.

    Apparently the waiter didn't really look at who he was speaking to. Then realised. It wasn't that Schwartzenegger was offended - it was all in the mind of the waiter, as AS just stared at him.

    Then he put the offered tie on.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,401
    Scott_xP said:

    Yes, this is exactly what the Tory Brains trust were hoping for after last night...

    @PGMcNamara

    🚨Punchy from @Keir_Starmer on **that** £2,000 tax line.

    About the Prime Minister @RishiSunak
    :

    “He resorted to LIES and he knew they were lies”

    https://x.com/PGMcNamara/status/1798370211541987724



    That's the clip for the evening news tonight...

    Just Stormer in pugilistic mood on Sky too. Possible Labour could actually win the news cycle. We'll see.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited June 5
    Sandpit said:

    Faiza is standing as an independent

    https://x.com/faizashaheen/status/1798369070657782177

    My prediction is that there’s going to be one Tory gain in England that comes out of nowhere. Here’s an example of how it might happen.

    There might also be a handful of weird results in Scotland.
    I think this is quite likely as well and mentioned so yesterday.

    Because of the likely wild moves in voting intentions compared to 2019 and 2017, there could be some weird anomaly situations including, yes, a Tory gain here or there.

    There are also going to be some true 3-way marginals and would love to see a thread up about them.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,347

    ...

    If you thought the Tory dossier was dodgy….read on….

    🧵
    Here's my primer on that £2k "Labour tax bombshell" @rishisunak was going on abt.
    Warning: this is far more convoluted/bizarre/intriguing than u might have expected.
    & neither Lab nor Con come out of it v well.
    But let's begin with a proviso:
    WE DON'T HAVE THE MANIFESTOS YET!


    https://x.com/EdConwaySky/status/1798343959607193764

    The problem for Labour is the circle of ultra low, Tory taxation (since the autumn statement last year) cannot be squared with improved public services. Rishi on the other hand can explain away low taxes (since last year) because he is not obliged to improve public services. In reality he would be quite content to return to Osborne austerity.

    Labour are thus lying, the Conservatives are not. Mind you I quite like well funded public services so I won't be voting Conservative.
    Highest overall tax take since “the war” says hi.

    Whoever wins this election will be raking it in, they don’t need headline tax raising promises when the highest tax take since war is not built on that honesty, but already built on stealth and dishonesty.

    The stunt Julie pulled last night was just embarrassingly crass, the two party leaders could hardly believe their luck having an idiot standing before them, and your post is repeating the same daft mistake.

    Whoever wins this election gets to take the mood of the country from the relegation zone to the play offs, that’s what’s so frustrating for the Conservatives
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    Scott_xP said:

    Yes, this is exactly what the Tory Brains trust were hoping for after last night...

    @PGMcNamara

    🚨Punchy from @Keir_Starmer on **that** £2,000 tax line.

    About the Prime Minister @RishiSunak
    :

    “He resorted to LIES and he knew they were lies”

    https://x.com/PGMcNamara/status/1798370211541987724



    That's the clip for the evening news tonight...

    Punchy?? lol. My God you really are in love.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,412

    Scott_xP said:

    Yes, this is exactly what the Tory Brains trust were hoping for after last night...

    @PGMcNamara

    🚨Punchy from @Keir_Starmer on **that** £2,000 tax line.

    About the Prime Minister @RishiSunak
    :

    “He resorted to LIES and he knew they were lies”

    https://x.com/PGMcNamara/status/1798370211541987724



    That's the clip for the evening news tonight...

    Just Stormer in pugilistic mood on Sky too. Possible Labour could actually win the news cycle. We'll see.
    And these angry denials will be played on loop the moment he raises taxes, as he will have to.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,401
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour are still going to win Chingford easily, even if Faiza Shaheen has a good showing with around 10% of the vote.

    I have been trying to work out if the boundary changes there favour Labour. It's a remainish seat in northeast London but the boundaries have changed quite a but so hard to compare like with like...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,511

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.

    BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?

    Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.

    (Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
    There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
    Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.

    Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
    George MacDonald Fraser https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_MacDonald_Fraser - wrote a lot of screenplays and some of the best semi-demi-fictional historical books ever.

    IIRC the incident was when they were filming Red Sonja - one of those LA restaurants that thought it was posh to demand all the dinners wore a tie.

    Apparently the waiter didn't really look at who he was speaking to. Then realised. It wasn't that Schwartzenegger was offended - it was all in the mind of the waiter, as AS just stared at him.

    Then he put the offered tie on.
    Ah! Am a big fan of GMF's work. And re: the tie, that makes perfect sense.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,094
    Sandpit said:

    Faiza is standing as an independent

    https://x.com/faizashaheen/status/1798369070657782177

    My prediction is that there’s going to be one Tory gain in England that comes out of nowhere. Here’s an example of how it might happen.

    There might also be a handful of weird results in Scotland.
    Leicester East must be top of the list.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,552
    DM_Andy said:

    Even here in the US, we tend to forget Presdient William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.

    But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.

    Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."

    (I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)

    Wasn't there one with Harold Wilson, he got egged in the October 1974 campaign and said something like this "I remember in the 1970 election an egg was thrown at me, this March there wasn't a single egg thrown at me and now another egg has been thrown at me. This just goes to show... You can only afford to throw eggs under a Labour Government."

    I think the all time winner of "brushing off hecklers" has to be Teddy Roosevelt

    After being shot, he realised that it hadn't hit anything vital. So he gave a 50 minute speech. While leaking claret. Then went to the hospital.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.

    BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?

    Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.

    (Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
    There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
    Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.

    Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
    Why didn't he go and get one. He could have said to the waiter "I'll be back"
    Lewis Hamilton was refused entry into the Royal Box at Wimbledon a year or two back iirc. I believe in his case he was offered one and refused to wear it despite having been told beforehand about the rule.

    Tie = Penis extension, obvs.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,539
    edited June 5
    HYUFD said:

    @tomorrowsmps
    🔵 I hear that the urgency for the Conservatives to find a candidate in every Btitish seat is so great that they are now contacting people who recently resigned from the approved candidates' list to see if they might nonetheless stand in a hopeless seat somewhere.
    https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1798335719645335579

    Ironic if it is true that Rishi called a snap election to stop RefUK lining up a full slate.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283

    Scott_xP said:

    Yes, this is exactly what the Tory Brains trust were hoping for after last night...

    @PGMcNamara

    🚨Punchy from @Keir_Starmer on **that** £2,000 tax line.

    About the Prime Minister @RishiSunak
    :

    “He resorted to LIES and he knew they were lies”

    https://x.com/PGMcNamara/status/1798370211541987724



    That's the clip for the evening news tonight...

    Just Stormer in pugilistic mood on Sky too. Possible Labour could actually win the news cycle. We'll see.
    They probably ought to try and change the subject. They are very vulnerable on tax, because everyone who has half a brain knows Labour will put them up, if only to pay for all the public sector pay increases.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,094
    Mary Harrington's latest piece.

    "Enter Nigel Farage. My sense is that most of Farage’s supporters don’t want to wield power themselves, and that Farage himself doesn’t really want to be a constituency MP. Rather, Farage’s supporters seek representation, in something more like the medieval sense, as an “interest” or “estate” to be taken seriously. And not without reason: they’re a significant subset of the English polity."

    https://unherd.com/2024/06/nigel-farages-post-democratic-revolt/
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.

    BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?

    Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.

    (Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
    There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
    Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.

    Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
    Why didn't he go and get one. He could have said to the waiter "I'll be back"
    Lewis Hamilton was refused entry into the Royal Box at Wimbledon a year or two back iirc. I believe in his case he was offered one and refused to wear it despite having been told beforehand about the rule.

    Tie = Penis extension, obvs.
    I have heard it on good authority that Lewis is, sadly, a bit of an egotistical tw*t
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited June 5
    I was musing earlier about the only 3 truly and indisputably influential politicians in the UK of the last 50 years. It followed reflection on the journos’ luvvin over Michael Gove.

    The only three who have truly been influential are:

    Margaret Thatcher
    Tony Blair
    Boris Johnson


    Lights fuse paper and runs .. although I do believe this to be the case.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,799

    Regardless who got to the microphones first, There’s not a doubt from the three Debate polls, Starmer won big?

    Anyone want to dispute that?

    If it was a bad debate for Starmer and Labour, it certainly doesn’t show up anywhere in the debate polling, does it? 2 comfortable overall wins to one wafer thin loss. And across all of them Starmer cleans up in sub questions, who all report much the same thing in questions like on NHS and public services 63% to 25%, on the economy 52% to 36%, and defence and security 43% to 41%, as most honest" 54% to 29% and that the Labour leader "remained the calmest" 51% to 36%.

    Who do you trust, is probably the only worthwhile indicator to the election picture you can get from a bit of head to head showbiz like this?

    Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives? It’s being spun as good Sunak won 2-1 on the voted Conservative 2019 group, 60% to 33. Is that actually good, seriously? Surely that’s Labour going from 0 to 33, Tory’s from 100% to 60% in just a Tory voting sub group excluding all other voters? If that’s not horrifically bad in the bigger picture of add that to overall polling, define horrifically bad.

    Correct me where wrong, from 1992-1997 Blair only managed a mere 14% of direct switchers. And how much of that 60% above comes out and votes for the Conservatives? That would be difference between respectable result and wipe out, not just direct switchers.

    Interesting to look at the 2019 Conservative vote - the latest Deltapoll has it 55% Conservative, 22% Labour and 17% Reform once the DKs are taken out. R&W on Monday had 42% Conservative, 21% Labour, 19% Reform and 11% DK among likely voters and finally 48% Con, 24% Labour and 22% Reform with the DKs removed. That might explain 20% Conservative VI with R&W and 25% with Deltapoll and 14% Reform with R&W and 9% with Deltapoll.

    I haven't seen the data tables for JL Partners and Savanta but my presumption would be they would find a larger percentage of 2019 Conservative voters still in the Conservative camp.

    This is the key group - those who voted Conservative in 2019 - if Sunak is holding barely half of those who voted for Johnson (and he doesn't seem to be finding too many replacements), he's in big trouble.

    Once the coalition which voted you in falls apart you have to create another or you're toast.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,802
    @peterwalker99

    New: election gets (even) more personal as Keir Starmer says Rishi Sunak deliberately lied about Labour's alleged £2,000 tax plan being civil service costed, and potentially breached the ministerial code.

    https://x.com/peterwalker99/status/1798374188694356454
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,539
    edited June 5

    Particularly given the recent record of the source, Caveat Emptor....

    It is a story that hacks are gossiping about in private, the story has been going around in legal circles for years and Guido hears that more than one newspaper is only now trying to stand the story up. Labour’s senior campaign operatives are well aware of the story and are said to have prepared a counter-strategy if it breaks during the election campaign.

    https://order-order.com/2024/06/05/unreported-affair-hacks-are-gossiping-about-privately/

    When was the last time the public cared about politicians putting it about? Cecil Parkinson?

    ETA It did not do John Prescott any harm, or Boris. Guido's tumescence is all a bit 20th Century.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,553
    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    Faiza is standing as an independent

    https://x.com/faizashaheen/status/1798369070657782177

    My prediction is that there’s going to be one Tory gain in England that comes out of nowhere. Here’s an example of how it might happen.

    There might also be a handful of weird results in Scotland.
    I think this is quite likely as well and mentioned so yesterday.

    Because of the likely wild moves in voting intentions compared to 2019 and 2017, there could be some weird anomaly situations including, yes, a Tory gain here or there.

    There are also going to be some true 3-way marginals and would love to see a thread up about them.
    In any normal election, these sort of vagaries would be fascinating. However, my expectation is that the cratering of the Tory vote will be so great that there will be no gains anywhere, even where the vote is highly split.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,552
    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.

    BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?

    Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.

    (Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
    There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
    Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.

    Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
    Why didn't he go and get one. He could have said to the waiter "I'll be back"
    Lewis Hamilton was refused entry into the Royal Box at Wimbledon a year or two back iirc. I believe in his case he was offered one and refused to wear it despite having been told beforehand about the rule.

    Tie = Penis extension, obvs.
    No, they aren't
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,553
    Anyway, this is the sort of thing we want from our politicians - the Fijian PM has won a bronze medal in the shot:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/05/rabuka-oceania-75-prime-minister-bronze-medal-shot-put-age/
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,052

    God still 29 days to go of this nonsense....

    I think we're one-third done now. The rest of the campaign is going to fly by.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,133
    edited June 5
    Meanwhile, drama in the Bay. Vaughan Gething has done a Paula Vennells and Mark Drakeford appears to have decided to abstain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-69091623
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,280

    FWIW Tory majority has lengthened somewhat since the debate last night.

    Now out to 60 (was 55 last night).

    That's a tiny movement, less than half a percent.

    If a poll leaks, you are most likely to see significant movement first on the spreads. I don't think leaks are common though. Rumour and guesswork are far more influential.

    I refer you to The Day The Dam Broke, by James Thurber. :)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,695
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    Beating?

    I mean, seriously?

    Or is it a reference to the process for making shakes?
    Beating just means ABH, which could be say a bruise.

    Our local serial-criminal Deputy Council Leader started about a decade ago by poking a competitor in the forehead with his finger and leaving a mark.

    He was done by the beak for Assault by Beating.
    https://www.chad.co.uk/news/ashfield-councillors-street-assault-on-political-rival-2198539
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,347

    ydoethur said:

    Faiza is standing as an independent

    https://x.com/faizashaheen/status/1798369070657782177

    That loud scream of joy emanated from Sir Iain Duncan Smith.
    Wonder what the Chingford Skinhead would make of this....
    It’s a fascinating point I was talking to my Dad about. In the eighties Lady Thatchers seat and this one seemed like they should be Conservative for ever.

    Was Boris get Brexit off the ******* news majority a last hurrah in a changing country 🫣
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,094
    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, drama in the Bay. Vaughan Gething has done a Paula Vennells and Mark Drakeford appears to have decided to abstain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-69091623

    "The first minister wiped away tears as his Labour colleague Vikki Howells spoke up on his behalf and denounced the Conservative motion as a “travesty”."

    A vote of no confidence is a travesty? It sounds like democracy in action to me.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,636

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.

    BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?

    Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.

    (Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
    There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
    Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.

    Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
    Why didn't he go and get one. He could have said to the waiter "I'll be back"
    Lewis Hamilton was refused entry into the Royal Box at Wimbledon a year or two back iirc. I believe in his case he was offered one and refused to wear it despite having been told beforehand about the rule.

    Tie = Penis extension, obvs.
    No, they aren't
    Oh, you mean a substitute rather than extension?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,627
    Remember £350m per week for the NHS?

    Just saying "£2,000 tax rise under Labour" puts it in people's minds.

    Almost nobody has any way of evaluating whether it's true or indeed any idea at all re any of the figures.

    But the more the number is said, the more it seeps into people's minds.
  • I genuinely don't think Starmer did win the debate. The polling baffles me.

    My only conclusion is that the public decided long ago and so have just said who they'd vote for instead.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,617

    Leon said:

    Despite the horrors of war Odessa is enchanting on a soft warm summer evening. The woman are extraordinary. The cool breezes blow off the Black Sea, freshening the boulevards

    In a weird way I can see why the Russians want it back. They built it. They paid for it. It is entirely Russian in origin, it would not exist if it wasn’t for

    Jesus Christ I just heard a massive explosion

    Quit the melodrama, some of us know people in Odessa and it really isn't clever. Wouldn't surprise me if you were somewhere no more dangerous than Tunbridge Wells.
    I am in Odessa



    So, yeah, you do know someone in Odessa. It's me
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,511

    Even here in the US, we tend to forget Presdient William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.

    But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.

    Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."

    (I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)

    Certainly sounds in character for Taft, who was by all reports a pretty funny guy when he wanted to be.

    HOWEVER, must take issue with "we tend to forget" WHT. Seeing as how every schoolkid in USA knows (or at least used to) that he was the only POTUS ever known to have gotten stuck in his White House bathtub. (Could have happened to Bill Clinton during his second term; and might have happened to Chris Christie IF Big Boy ever resided at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.)

    BTW, I once met Taft's grandson. In Dublin, where he was a resident and member of the Irish Labour Party.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,133
    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, drama in the Bay. Vaughan Gething has done a Paula Vennells and Mark Drakeford appears to have decided to abstain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-69091623

    "The first minister wiped away tears as his Labour colleague Vikki Howells spoke up on his behalf and denounced the Conservative motion as a “travesty”."

    A vote of no confidence is a travesty? It sounds like democracy in action to me.
    This is Wales, dammit. Nothing shall interfere with the divine right of Labour to rule.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283

    Particularly given the recent record of the source, Caveat Emptor....

    It is a story that hacks are gossiping about in private, the story has been going around in legal circles for years and Guido hears that more than one newspaper is only now trying to stand the story up. Labour’s senior campaign operatives are well aware of the story and are said to have prepared a counter-strategy if it breaks during the election campaign.

    https://order-order.com/2024/06/05/unreported-affair-hacks-are-gossiping-about-privately/

    When was the last time the public cared about politicians putting it about? Cecil Parkinson?
    The only noticeable Labour male is Starmer. All the rest are such lightweights and non-entities it wouldn't matter a bit. If it was Starmer and it got announced in the campaign that would be a bit different, because he likes to come across as such a goody goody.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,412
    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, drama in the Bay. Vaughan Gething has done a Paula Vennells and Mark Drakeford appears to have decided to abstain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-69091623

    For some absolutely inexplicable reason I read that as Paula Radcliffe not Vennells. Which would have been funny.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,280

    YouGov out at 5, Sam Coates keen to tell us its under new methodology, but first post Farage poll

    If it's a new method, the results will have to be taken interpreted with considerable caution.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,133
    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, drama in the Bay. Vaughan Gething has done a Paula Vennells and Mark Drakeford appears to have decided to abstain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-69091623

    For some absolutely inexplicable reason I read that as Paula Radcliffe not Vennells. Which would have been funny.
    The shit is off campaigning for a seat somewhere in Essex.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,412
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Despite the horrors of war Odessa is enchanting on a soft warm summer evening. The woman are extraordinary. The cool breezes blow off the Black Sea, freshening the boulevards

    In a weird way I can see why the Russians want it back. They built it. They paid for it. It is entirely Russian in origin, it would not exist if it wasn’t for

    Jesus Christ I just heard a massive explosion

    Quit the melodrama, some of us know people in Odessa and it really isn't clever. Wouldn't surprise me if you were somewhere no more dangerous than Tunbridge Wells.
    I am in Odessa



    So, yeah, you do know someone in Odessa. It's me
    Bet the waiting staff are loving that picture on your screen.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    New poll, but I know nothing of this group......
    https://x.com/drjennings/status/1798354614305329165?s=19
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,769

    Belated New Thread (thanks @viewcode)

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,347

    Regardless who got to the microphones first, There’s not a doubt from the three Debate polls, Starmer won big?

    Anyone want to dispute that?

    If it was a bad debate for Starmer and Labour, it certainly doesn’t show up anywhere in the debate polling, does it? 2 comfortable overall wins to one wafer thin loss. And across all of them Starmer cleans up in sub questions, who all report much the same thing in questions like on NHS and public services 63% to 25%, on the economy 52% to 36%, and defence and security 43% to 41%, as most honest" 54% to 29% and that the Labour leader "remained the calmest" 51% to 36%.

    Who do you trust, is probably the only worthwhile indicator to the election picture you can get from a bit of head to head showbiz like this?

    Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives? It’s being spun as good Sunak won 2-1 on the voted Conservative 2019 group, 60% to 33. Is that actually good, seriously? Surely that’s Labour going from 0 to 33, Tory’s from 100% to 60% in just a Tory voting sub group excluding all other voters? If that’s not horrifically bad in the bigger picture of add that to overall polling, define horrifically bad.

    Correct me where wrong, from 1992-1997 Blair only managed a mere 14% of direct switchers. And how much of that 60% above comes out and votes for the Conservatives? That would be difference between respectable result and wipe out, not just direct switchers.

    There is a VI poll out at 5pm which should give us a better idea*. But yes, your analysis seems fair.

    *METHODOLOGY CHANGE KLAXON
    Herding is done for safety in numbers. Bird murmurs are the same.
    Or the predator will get one of us, but if I’m with 100 other possible victims my chances are better.

    The instinct of polling companies to herd exactly same thing?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,552
    Carnyx said:

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.

    BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?

    Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.

    (Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
    There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
    Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.

    Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
    Why didn't he go and get one. He could have said to the waiter "I'll be back"
    Lewis Hamilton was refused entry into the Royal Box at Wimbledon a year or two back iirc. I believe in his case he was offered one and refused to wear it despite having been told beforehand about the rule.

    Tie = Penis extension, obvs.
    No, they aren't
    Oh, you mean a substitute rather than extension?
    Neither - their origin is quite well documented.

    The only thing sillier than a tie is the people who make a terrible fuss about how "something or the other" they are.

    If the dress code says wear a tie, either wear it or don't go.

    There's no prisoners of conscience for ties.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,185

    Heathener said:

    Sandpit said:

    A woman has been charged with assault by beating and criminal damage after a milkshake was thrown at Nigel Farage.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/05/onlyfans-model-charged-nigel-farage/

    As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.

    BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?

    Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.

    (Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
    There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
    Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.

    Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
    Why didn't he go and get one. He could have said to the waiter "I'll be back"
    Lewis Hamilton was refused entry into the Royal Box at Wimbledon a year or two back iirc. I believe in his case he was offered one and refused to wear it despite having been told beforehand about the rule.

    Tie = Penis extension, obvs.
    I have heard it on good authority that Lewis is, sadly, a bit of an egotistical tw*t
    And confirmed batchelor, not that that matters
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,539
    Cookie said:

    Anyway, this is the sort of thing we want from our politicians - the Fijian PM has won a bronze medal in the shot:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/05/rabuka-oceania-75-prime-minister-bronze-medal-shot-put-age/

    The Tories missed a trick when electing Seb Coe's judo partner instead of the man himself.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,347
    edited June 5
    rcs1000 said:

    Belated New Thread (thanks @viewcode)

    Oh it’s a Viewcode header. It means I probably won’t understand a word of it. 🫢
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,636
    edited June 5

    rcs1000 said:

    Belated New Thread (thanks @viewcode)

    Oh it’s a Viewcode. It means I probably won’t understand a word of it. 🫢
    Oh, it's written in English all right, not Old High Enochian. Or something really ancient such as Fortran.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,026
    Vanilla backend isn't connected to Viewcode's thread

    Failed to find discussion for commenting.
    DiscussionID is required.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,052
    kyf_100 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Faiza is standing as an independent

    https://x.com/faizashaheen/status/1798369070657782177

    That loud scream of joy emanated from Sir Iain Duncan Smith.
    I thought he was supposed to be "the quiet man"?

    Top lolz if he wins and stands for leader again, though. Can't be any worse than the current front runners who are in with a chance of retaining their seats.
    Of course it would be different for IDS a second time round. In between times he became a [semi-demi-hemi] hero for resigning when Osborne salami sliced universal credit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,617
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Despite the horrors of war Odessa is enchanting on a soft warm summer evening. The woman are extraordinary. The cool breezes blow off the Black Sea, freshening the boulevards

    In a weird way I can see why the Russians want it back. They built it. They paid for it. It is entirely Russian in origin, it would not exist if it wasn’t for

    Jesus Christ I just heard a massive explosion

    Quit the melodrama, some of us know people in Odessa and it really isn't clever. Wouldn't surprise me if you were somewhere no more dangerous than Tunbridge Wells.
    I am in Odessa



    So, yeah, you do know someone in Odessa. It's me
    Bet the waiting staff are loving that picture on your screen.
    It's an old PB tradition, I thought I'd honour it
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Belated New Thread (thanks @viewcode)

    Oh it’s a Viewcode. It means I probably won’t understand a word of it. 🫢
    Oh, it's written in English all right, not Old High Enochian. Or something really ancient such as Fortran.
    Well at the moment it appears to be written in invisible ink ;)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,347

    YouGov out at 5, Sam Coates keen to tell us its under new methodology, but first post Farage poll

    If it's a new method, the results will have to be taken interpreted with considerable caution.
    I bet they won’t be, as the bigger lead outliers start herding 🤭
  • eekeek Posts: 28,026
    MikeL said:

    Remember £350m per week for the NHS?

    Just saying "£2,000 tax rise under Labour" puts it in people's minds.

    Almost nobody has any way of evaluating whether it's true or indeed any idea at all re any of the figures.

    But the more the number is said, the more it seeps into people's minds.

    And it's likely that people may be there thinking - that's not as bad as I feared...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Ah - it’s up :)
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,178
    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, drama in the Bay. Vaughan Gething has done a Paula Vennells and Mark Drakeford appears to have decided to abstain.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-69091623

    The quality of Labour defence arguments are risible. I particularly like the one that only the voters can decide who is in the Senedd which is confusing, as the voters didn’t get much of a say in Gething being FM.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,636
    Heathener said:

    Carnyx said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Belated New Thread (thanks @viewcode)

    Oh it’s a Viewcode. It means I probably won’t understand a word of it. 🫢
    Oh, it's written in English all right, not Old High Enochian. Or something really ancient such as Fortran.
    Well at the moment it appears to be written in invisible ink ;)
    Either I've got the contrast set OK on my screen, or you're using a mobey rather than a PC?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,511

    DM_Andy said:

    Even here in the US, we tend to forget Presdient William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.

    But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.

    Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."

    (I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)

    Wasn't there one with Harold Wilson, he got egged in the October 1974 campaign and said something like this "I remember in the 1970 election an egg was thrown at me, this March there wasn't a single egg thrown at me and now another egg has been thrown at me. This just goes to show... You can only afford to throw eggs under a Labour Government."

    I think the all time winner of "brushing off hecklers" has to be Teddy Roosevelt

    After being shot, he realised that it hadn't hit anything vital. So he gave a 50 minute speech. While leaking claret. Then went to the hospital.
    Indeed. And told the crowd NOT to harm his would-be assassin.

    Reason TR did it, was because he thought that demonstrating yet again his famed intestinal fortitude MIGHT change the trajectory of the election, which until then was clearly Woodrow Wilson's to win.

    For a few days it seemed as though that could happen, public response being overwhelming pro-Teddy. But then emotions subsided, reason (and partisanship) took hold, and he ended up in 2nd place, behind WW but ahead of his hand-picked successor WHT.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,347
    “ Almost nobody has any way of evaluating whether it's true or indeed any idea at all re any of the figures.”. 🤣. You’ve not ready any of the thread or watched any news today
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,094
    "Leading UK cyclist out of Tour of Britain after being struck at ‘high speed’ by 4x4
    Kate Richardson broke collarbone in ‘incredibly scary’ incident
    Driver ‘turned around and came back to verbally abuse’"

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/jun/05/leading-uk-cyclist-kate-richardson-out-of-tour-of-britain-after-driver-hit-her-at-high-speed-cycling
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,636

    DM_Andy said:

    Even here in the US, we tend to forget Presdient William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.

    But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.

    Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."

    (I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)

    Wasn't there one with Harold Wilson, he got egged in the October 1974 campaign and said something like this "I remember in the 1970 election an egg was thrown at me, this March there wasn't a single egg thrown at me and now another egg has been thrown at me. This just goes to show... You can only afford to throw eggs under a Labour Government."

    I think the all time winner of "brushing off hecklers" has to be Teddy Roosevelt

    After being shot, he realised that it hadn't hit anything vital. So he gave a 50 minute speech. While leaking claret. Then went to the hospital.
    Indeed. And told the crowd NOT to harm his would-be assassin.

    Reason TR did it, was because he thought that demonstrating yet again his famed intestinal fortitude MIGHT change the trajectory of the election, which until then was clearly Woodrow Wilson's to win.

    For a few days it seemed as though that could happen, public response being overwhelming pro-Teddy. But then emotions subsided, reason (and partisanship) took hold, and he ended up in 2nd place, behind WW but ahead of his hand-picked successor WHT.
    My immediate reaction was to think what a change it must have been for him, to be on the other end of a bullet!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,728
    edited June 5

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    eek said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Having not watched the debate only snippets, I thought one of the weirdest / face slipping thing was Starmer saying no he would never use private health.

    What never, you kids are dying, you can only get that treatment privately and your idealogical purity would override that? That isn't the same as doing a Diane Abbott and sending your kids private after railing against private education (that isn't life and death).

    Even lesser than that, your kid is in agony, lets say had an accident and smashed in face / teeth. You wouldn't pay for a private dentist to sort it tomorrow, rather than have to wait months (and may never get the full treatment via NHS dentist). Same with hips / knees, the pain from that for many old people is life limiting.

    Surely the easy answer is we need to make the NHS better, it fails too many people, so even normal people are being faced with these decisions, that they should never have to....

    What condition do you have in mind that would kill your children, but is treatable only privately?

    I can't think of one.

    Indeed paediatric services are generally very poor privately as few private hospitals can meet the CQC approval for children.
    We see it all the time, where there are treatments only available in say US. They aren't licensed here and there is some charity drive to raise the money to send them.

    But, even on the lesser note. Things like hips / knees, the wait list is years on NHS. And things like NHS dentistry doesn't over everything or won't get to you for a very very long time.

    As I said, the easy answer is

    "As PM I will improve the NHS, people shouldn't be having to make these decisions, but I understand that family is the most important thing and thus why people pay to go private. I support the NHS, I believe in the NHS, but there are very rare circumstances where if forced I am very fortunate to be able to make such a decision to help a family member. "

    That to me seems the normal human response.
    Treatments only available in the US are unusual. We hear about them because they are newsworthy precisely because they are rare.

    Many, probably most, of these aren't available in the UK because NICE and the NHS have looked at them and decided they don't really work. Hope is a very powerful motivator and people want to believe some obscure, expensive thing in the US will work... but 9 times out of 10, it won't.

    There are cases where something works and is so prohibitively expensive that the NHS won't do it. But they're very rare.
    That is all fair points, but it doesn't change that if we believe Starmer he wouldn't even entertain the possibility / look into it if it was a family member. Each to their own, but its not an ideology I can personally understand.
    I can understand why someone would take the principled stance not to use private health care, much as they might do for private education. What I don't understand is imposing your own viewpoint on your own family members, even when they are dying!
    Wasn't the question - would you pay for someone in your family to get private healthcare - I can see why the answer to that would be no especially when your don't have £xm in the bank...
    If one of my family members were in need of it I would like to think I would spend my last penny to get them the best healthcare. Pity Labour supporters families; they would rather the tax payer picked up the bill, even if they could afford it, and let their family member suffer longer so they can believe themselves pure while they book their next holiday in the Maldives.
    I don't think that's how people read it. The question was 'are you prepared to pay to queue jump?'
    People do it all the time - fast queues at airports, Ticketmaster, anything premium. You must do it all the time.
    I do. As I said earlier I'm in BUPA which is what it's for. I was obliged to for work but I would think better of someone who unlike me refused to on principle.
    That's like saying you'd take a pay cut because your boss would think better of you.

    PS he wouldn't
    - If you were on the council house waiting list but got offered a job which paid enough for you to rent privately, would you take it?
    - Oh no, Julie, it's a council house for me. I'd wait my turn with everyone else.
    "I was obliged to for work" - how "obliged"?

    1) Told to use it?
    2) Told using it was a condition of employment?
    3) Strapped to a stretcher and abducted to a BUPA hospital by heavily armed Unitarian Fundamentalists?
    I remember when I taught in the independent sector I had to be in BUPA. It was a condition of employment though they paid my yearly subscription. I never used it myself, only my wife. I had to pay tax on the subscription as a benefit in kind.
    Any sensible government would treat private healthcare expenditure (available to all employees) as deductible against employer NI, rather than try to tax it as a BIK for the employee.

    Government needs to get as many people as possible out of the NHS, and encourage private providers to expand overall provision, not to mention the amount of absence that could be saved by fast-tracking those off work for months waiting for treatment.
    The Government also needs the £60bn that employer NI generates - and I will note I suspect that will increase post the election because no-one is talking about Employer NI

    Which if you need growth is the absolutely wrong thing to do. Its a tax on jobs. Its why Sunak was such a moron to go down this road before the U-Turn, with his NI++ scheme.
    Of course, but it’s politically easy to tax employers becuase no-one outside of the business media cares what the CBI or “the boss class” has to say.
    Well also big business can absorb this a lot easier. They already constant revolving door of hires and fires which is cost of doing business that is factored in when you are large.

    Small employer that is much bigger deal. Do you want to expand and hire another 5-10 people, it makes things a lot harder decision.

    A big problem is because the mega companies have taken the piss over paying tax, government have moved more and more to taxes that are basically just for operating a business rather than making money. This is fine for an Amazon, as otherwise they have the size and flexibility to play the international shell company game. But your local businessman with a business that is 100% physically located in one place, its far worse.

    As I have said before, the UK now has (as a proportion) of the economy very few medium sized businesses. How do you get those, by small businesses growing. We don't have that, which is a big problem.
    Part of the issue is that at every stage of a business there's a new big cost in the UK. The three that spring to mind are the VAT threshold for single person businesses (should be lowered right down to £10k), the sliding corp tax rate and audit costs when you need to start getting audited.
    Cost and red tape.

    Again, no discussion of these problem by the major parties. Instead its a day of no you are liar, no you are liar, its £2k extra, no £3k. It will be more than that if the economy doesn't find any growth.
    It really is quite funny how the line from the Sunak loyalists has changed over the last 24 hours.

    Last night:
    "Ha ha! Sunak has really won the debate and nailed Starmer with the £2000 tax thing!"

    Today:
    "Oh really all this talk about whether Sunak was lying is a distraction from the real issues."
    Except, the Labour £2,000 extra tax thing is now out there as a real Thing.

    Is "a real Thing" nowadays what we used to call a "lie"?
    Labour's refusing-to-raise-taxes-but-are-going-to-improve-public-services-including-the-NHS is something Labour wanted kept in the dark, but has now had a light shone on it.

    Labour could always, you know, do the honesty thing and admit that taxes are going to rise, to ensure services will improve. But last night, Starmer confirmed no tax, NI or VAT rises (except for on private education).

    That is the lie at the heart of this election. Either taxes go up - or services don't improve.
    If what you say is true, then Sunak could have "you know, done the honesty thing" and simply pointed that contradiction out, however many dozen times it was.

    Instead, he told a barefaced lie about civil servants having calculated this specific figure. You must see that the danger of that is that the debate would move on very rapidly from "What is Labour hiding?" to "How does Sunak think he can get away with telling such barefaced lies?"

    Do you really think it was better to lie than tell the truth?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,539
    Heathener said:

    I was musing earlier about the only 3 truly and indisputably influential politicians in the UK of the last 50 years. It followed reflection on the journos’ luvvin over Michael Gove.

    The only three who have truly been influential are:

    Margaret Thatcher
    Tony Blair
    Boris Johnson


    Lights fuse paper and runs .. although I do believe this to be the case.

    Boris for permanently wrecking the Conservative Party (with help from the ghost of Mrs T) presumably because Nigel Farage is probably the politician most responsible for Brexit. I'm not sure about Tony Blair either.

    Alex Salmond and/or Nicola Sturgeon, whichever you credit with turning Scotland yellow.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,026
    rcs1000 said:

    Belated New Thread (thanks @viewcode)

    Now Active

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,347

    Scott_xP said:

    Yes, this is exactly what the Tory Brains trust were hoping for after last night...

    @PGMcNamara

    🚨Punchy from @Keir_Starmer on **that** £2,000 tax line.

    About the Prime Minister @RishiSunak
    :

    “He resorted to LIES and he knew they were lies”

    https://x.com/PGMcNamara/status/1798370211541987724



    That's the clip for the evening news tonight...

    Just Stormer in pugilistic mood on Sky too. Possible Labour could actually win the news cycle. We'll see.
    They probably ought to try and change the subject. They are very vulnerable on tax, because everyone who has half a brain knows Labour will put them up, if only to pay for all the public sector pay increases.
    Maybe in this election, unlike 1992, what you describe is exactly what voters want.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,052
    edited June 5
    Heathener said:

    I was musing earlier about the only 3 truly and indisputably influential politicians in the UK of the last 50 years. It followed reflection on the journos’ luvvin over Michael Gove.

    The only three who have truly been influential are:

    Margaret Thatcher
    Tony Blair
    Boris Johnson


    Lights fuse paper and runs .. although I do believe this to be the case.

    Blair ceded so much of the domestic agenda to Brown that you can make a strong case for Brown's consequentialism. And then he also blocked Blair from trying to join the Euro, and that certainly had consequences.

    You could also argue that Cameron was more consequential then Johnson over Brexit, if unintentionally.

    I think it would be more interesting to consider the politicians who were more consequential than their reputation would suggest, and have been overlooked.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,552
    Carnyx said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Even here in the US, we tend to forget Presdient William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.

    But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.

    Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."

    (I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)

    Wasn't there one with Harold Wilson, he got egged in the October 1974 campaign and said something like this "I remember in the 1970 election an egg was thrown at me, this March there wasn't a single egg thrown at me and now another egg has been thrown at me. This just goes to show... You can only afford to throw eggs under a Labour Government."

    I think the all time winner of "brushing off hecklers" has to be Teddy Roosevelt

    After being shot, he realised that it hadn't hit anything vital. So he gave a 50 minute speech. While leaking claret. Then went to the hospital.
    Indeed. And told the crowd NOT to harm his would-be assassin.

    Reason TR did it, was because he thought that demonstrating yet again his famed intestinal fortitude MIGHT change the trajectory of the election, which until then was clearly Woodrow Wilson's to win.

    For a few days it seemed as though that could happen, public response being overwhelming pro-Teddy. But then emotions subsided, reason (and partisanship) took hold, and he ended up in 2nd place, behind WW but ahead of his hand-picked successor WHT.
    My immediate reaction was to think what a change it must have been for him, to be on the other end of a bullet!
    Teddy had a fair amount of experience at being shot at - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rough_Riders
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,636

    Carnyx said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Even here in the US, we tend to forget Presdient William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.

    But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.

    Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."

    (I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)

    Wasn't there one with Harold Wilson, he got egged in the October 1974 campaign and said something like this "I remember in the 1970 election an egg was thrown at me, this March there wasn't a single egg thrown at me and now another egg has been thrown at me. This just goes to show... You can only afford to throw eggs under a Labour Government."

    I think the all time winner of "brushing off hecklers" has to be Teddy Roosevelt

    After being shot, he realised that it hadn't hit anything vital. So he gave a 50 minute speech. While leaking claret. Then went to the hospital.
    Indeed. And told the crowd NOT to harm his would-be assassin.

    Reason TR did it, was because he thought that demonstrating yet again his famed intestinal fortitude MIGHT change the trajectory of the election, which until then was clearly Woodrow Wilson's to win.

    For a few days it seemed as though that could happen, public response being overwhelming pro-Teddy. But then emotions subsided, reason (and partisanship) took hold, and he ended up in 2nd place, behind WW but ahead of his hand-picked successor WHT.
    My immediate reaction was to think what a change it must have been for him, to be on the other end of a bullet!
    Teddy had a fair amount of experience at being shot at - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rough_Riders
    I'd forgotten!

    But this was just a small part of his score:

    https://www.vox.com/2015/7/29/9067587/theodore-roosevelt-safari
  • eekeek Posts: 28,026

    Scott_xP said:

    Yes, this is exactly what the Tory Brains trust were hoping for after last night...

    @PGMcNamara

    🚨Punchy from @Keir_Starmer on **that** £2,000 tax line.

    About the Prime Minister @RishiSunak
    :

    “He resorted to LIES and he knew they were lies”

    https://x.com/PGMcNamara/status/1798370211541987724



    That's the clip for the evening news tonight...

    Just Stormer in pugilistic mood on Sky too. Possible Labour could actually win the news cycle. We'll see.
    They probably ought to try and change the subject. They are very vulnerable on tax, because everyone who has half a brain knows Labour will put them up, if only to pay for all the public sector pay increases.
    Maybe in this election, unlike 1992, what you describe is exactly what voters want.
    SKS is no Blair but equally he is no Kinnock - he's more like John Smith...

    Problem is Rishi isn't John Major he's Iain Duncan Smith...
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    I don't expect it but if there is a Tory gain in England my pick is Cramlington and Killingworth. This election will disguise it but there is a long-term trend towards Conservatives in the towns of Northern England, boundary changes have made a Tory gain in GE19 (Blyth Valley) into a notional Labour seat but only by less than 2% and that was despite a sizeable Brexit party vote (7.9%). The incumbent MP for much of the new constituency is standing again, the Labour candidate isn't a councillor or seems to have much of a profile. The polls would have to narrow and the Brexit/Reform vote will have to be squeezed but it doesn't seem completely impossible.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,264
    edited June 5
    Starliner launch eventually went off successfully. On its way to the ISS now, to rendezvous tomorrow.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,728
    MikeL said:

    Remember £350m per week for the NHS?

    Just saying "£2,000 tax rise under Labour" puts it in people's minds.

    Almost nobody has any way of evaluating whether it's true or indeed any idea at all re any of the figures.

    But the more the number is said, the more it seeps into people's minds.

    If he had just said "we calculate Labour's tax rise will be £2000", then that might be true.

    But for some unfathomable reason he felt compelled to preface the claim by saying it had been calculated by independent civil servants. With the result that Labour was able to expose it as a lie the very next day.

    This has turned into just one more example of the incompetence of the Tory campaign.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,094
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Despite the horrors of war Odessa is enchanting on a soft warm summer evening. The woman are extraordinary. The cool breezes blow off the Black Sea, freshening the boulevards

    In a weird way I can see why the Russians want it back. They built it. They paid for it. It is entirely Russian in origin, it would not exist if it wasn’t for

    Jesus Christ I just heard a massive explosion

    Quit the melodrama, some of us know people in Odessa and it really isn't clever. Wouldn't surprise me if you were somewhere no more dangerous than Tunbridge Wells.
    I am in Odessa



    So, yeah, you do know someone in Odessa. It's me
    Doesn't matter if there's no electricity, as long as they can still serve Aperol spritzes.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,412
    edited June 5
    Andy_JS said:

    "Leading UK cyclist out of Tour of Britain after being struck at ‘high speed’ by 4x4
    Kate Richardson broke collarbone in ‘incredibly scary’ incident
    Driver ‘turned around and came back to verbally abuse’"

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/jun/05/leading-uk-cyclist-kate-richardson-out-of-tour-of-britain-after-driver-hit-her-at-high-speed-cycling

    What an idiot. Dangerous driving, leaving the scene, coming back, verbal abuse.

    Anti-cycling rhetoric is leaving people seriously injured. It's not like normal road rage against another driver - even if you just clip a cyclist, it could land you in jail for death by dangerous.
This discussion has been closed.