I'm on holiday next week for a week - just discovered that the temperature is currently 40C so I'm not expecting to do much beyond sitting in the shade trying to keep cool.
Where are you going? With those temperatures Skegness.....
Do we all remember the great heat scare of 2022....must all stay inside or die from 40c.
Throw a milkshake at someone, get locked up, and it will all be over by the time you're out.
Oh, hold on, I forgot the courts have collapsed because of underfunding, so you won't get sentenced until 2026...
Reminds me of the fact I was robbed/mugged in Rome in March this year. Tried to report it to a police station, but they closed at 5pm, and since I was going back the next day, didn't have time to go back again. So that crime doesn't officially exist.
Even here in the US, we tend to forget Presdient William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.
But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.
Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."
(I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)
Throw a milkshake at someone, get locked up, and it will all be over by the time you're out.
Oh, hold on, I forgot the courts have collapsed because of underfunding, so you won't get sentenced until 2026...
Reminds me of the fact I was robbed/mugged in Rome in March this year. Tried to report it to a police station, but they closed at 5pm, and since I was going back the next day, didn't have time to go back again. So that crime doesn't officially exist.
It being Italy, i presume they only take reports of mugging betweem 3-4pm every other Tues anyway.
I'm on holiday next week for a week - just discovered that the temperature is currently 40C so I'm not expecting to do much beyond sitting in the shade trying to keep cool.
Where are you going? With those temperatures Skegness.....
Do we all remember the great heat scare of 2022....must all stay inside or die from 40c.
Antalya - I was expecting temperatures to be high 20s, early 30s not anything like they will be.
Despite the horrors of war Odessa is enchanting on a soft warm summer evening. The woman are extraordinary. The cool breezes blow off the Black Sea, freshening the boulevards
In a weird way I can see why the Russians want it back. They built it. They paid for it. It is entirely Russian in origin, it would not exist if it wasn’t for
Jesus Christ I just heard a massive explosion
Olivia Manning is pure shite compared to this.
Weren’t you meant to be in Kharkiv? What happened? Bottled it?
Despite the horrors of war Odessa is enchanting on a soft warm summer evening. The woman are extraordinary. The cool breezes blow off the Black Sea, freshening the boulevards
In a weird way I can see why the Russians want it back. They built it. They paid for it. It is entirely Russian in origin, it would not exist if it wasn’t for
Jesus Christ I just heard a massive explosion
Quit the melodrama, some of us know people in Odessa and it really isn't clever. Wouldn't surprise me if you were somewhere no more dangerous than Tunbridge Wells.
Regardless who got to the microphones first, There’s not a doubt from the three Debate polls, Starmer won big?
Anyone want to dispute that?
If it was a bad debate for Starmer and Labour, it certainly doesn’t show up anywhere in the debate polling, does it? 2 comfortable overall wins to one wafer thin loss. And across all of them Starmer cleans up in sub questions, who all report much the same thing in questions like on NHS and public services 63% to 25%, on the economy 52% to 36%, and defence and security 43% to 41%, as most honest" 54% to 29% and that the Labour leader "remained the calmest" 51% to 36%.
Who do you trust, is probably the only worthwhile indicator to the election picture you can get from a bit of head to head showbiz like this?
Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives? It’s being spun as good Sunak won 2-1 on the voted Conservative 2019 group, 60% to 33. Is that actually good, seriously? Surely that’s Labour going from 0 to 33, Tory’s from 100% to 60% in just a Tory voting sub group excluding all other voters? If that’s not horrifically bad in the bigger picture of add that to overall polling, define horrifically bad.
Correct me where wrong, from 1992-1997 Blair only managed a mere 14% of direct switchers. And how much of that 60% above comes out and votes for the Conservatives? That would be difference between respectable result and wipe out, not just direct switchers.
There is a VI poll out at 5pm which should give us a better idea*. But yes, your analysis seems fair.
*METHODOLOGY CHANGE KLAXON
I don't think your PB Tory friends need to worry about a methodology change if Rishi closes the gap.
My prediction is that there’s going to be one Tory gain in England that comes out of nowhere. Here’s an example of how it might happen.
There might also be a handful of weird results in Scotland.
This one is already Tory. On a similar vein, Ilford North........ If you believe Leanne Mohammed is damaging Streeting, the Tories through the middle becomes possible, but very heavily DYOR
As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.
BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?
Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.
(Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.
Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
Regardless who got to the microphones first, There’s not a doubt from the three Debate polls, Starmer won big?
Anyone want to dispute that?
If it was a bad debate for Starmer and Labour, it certainly doesn’t show up anywhere in the debate polling, does it? 2 comfortable overall wins to one wafer thin loss. And across all of them Starmer cleans up in sub questions, who all report much the same thing in questions like on NHS and public services 63% to 25%, on the economy 52% to 36%, and defence and security 43% to 41%, as most honest" 54% to 29% and that the Labour leader "remained the calmest" 51% to 36%.
Who do you trust, is probably the only worthwhile indicator to the election picture you can get from a bit of head to head showbiz like this?
Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives? It’s being spun as good Sunak won 2-1 on the voted Conservative 2019 group, 60% to 33. Is that actually good, seriously? Surely that’s Labour going from 0 to 33, Tory’s from 100% to 60% in just a Tory voting sub group excluding all other voters? If that’s not horrifically bad in the bigger picture of add that to overall polling, define horrifically bad.
Correct me where wrong, from 1992-1997 Blair only managed a mere 14% of direct switchers. And how much of that 60% above comes out and votes for the Conservatives? That would be difference between respectable result and wipe out, not just direct switchers.
There is a VI poll out at 5pm which should give us a better idea*. But yes, your analysis seems fair.
*METHODOLOGY CHANGE KLAXON
I don't think your PB Tory friends need to worry about a methodology change if Rishi closes the gap.
Well the point is the methodology change might lead to a change in the gap.
My prediction is that there’s going to be one Tory gain in England that comes out of nowhere. Here’s an example of how it might happen.
There might also be a handful of weird results in Scotland.
This one is already Tory. On a similar vein, Ilford North........ If you believe Leanne Mohammed is damaging Streeting, the Tories through the middle becomes possible, but very heavily DYOR
Tory candidate is the excellent Kaz Rizvi, Chigwell councillor who grew up in Ilford North seat and is campaigning hard. I doubt he wins but should get a much lower than average swing against him
Even here in the US, we tend to forget Presdient William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.
But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.
Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."
(I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)
Wasn't there one with Harold Wilson, he got egged in the October 1974 campaign and said something like this "I remember in the 1970 election an egg was thrown at me, this March there wasn't a single egg thrown at me and now another egg has been thrown at me. This just goes to show... You can only afford to throw eggs under a Labour Government."
I'm on holiday next week for a week so thankfully I'm spared a week of it. But I've just discovered that the temperature is currently 40C so I'm not expecting to do much beyond sitting in the shade trying to keep cool.
Regardless who got to the microphones first, There’s not a doubt from the three Debate polls, Starmer won big?
Anyone want to dispute that?
If it was a bad debate for Starmer and Labour, it certainly doesn’t show up anywhere in the debate polling, does it? 2 comfortable overall wins to one wafer thin loss. And across all of them Starmer cleans up in sub questions, who all report much the same thing in questions like on NHS and public services 63% to 25%, on the economy 52% to 36%, and defence and security 43% to 41%, as most honest" 54% to 29% and that the Labour leader "remained the calmest" 51% to 36%.
Who do you trust, is probably the only worthwhile indicator to the election picture you can get from a bit of head to head showbiz like this?
Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives? It’s being spun as good Sunak won 2-1 on the voted Conservative 2019 group, 60% to 33. Is that actually good, seriously? Surely that’s Labour going from 0 to 33, Tory’s from 100% to 60% in just a Tory voting sub group excluding all other voters? If that’s not horrifically bad in the bigger picture of add that to overall polling, define horrifically bad.
Correct me where wrong, from 1992-1997 Blair only managed a mere 14% of direct switchers. And how much of that 60% above comes out and votes for the Conservatives? That would be difference between respectable result and wipe out, not just direct switchers.
There is a VI poll out at 5pm which should give us a better idea*. But yes, your analysis seems fair.
*METHODOLOGY CHANGE KLAXON
I don't think your PB Tory friends need to worry about a methodology change if Rishi closes the gap.
Well the point is the methodology change might lead to a change in the gap.
That was my point, but the change in counting need not worry your PB Tory loyalists. A win is a win. Shape up!
That loud scream of joy emanated from Sir Iain Duncan Smith.
I thought he was supposed to be "the quiet man"?
Top lolz if he wins and stands for leader again, though. Can't be any worse than the current front runners who are in with a chance of retaining their seats.
As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.
BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?
Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.
(Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.
Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
Why didn't he go and get one. He could have said to the waiter "I'll be back"
As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.
BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?
Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.
(Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
You might like to read about this roughly coeval incident if you don't know about it, SSI.
I recall the Two-Jabs incident quite well. Feeling among folks here in Seattle who were then active in politics was tooooo bad John Prescott didn't hit the cowardly creep a few more times.
As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.
BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?
Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.
(Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.
Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
IIRC the incident was when they were filming Red Sonja - one of those LA restaurants that thought it was posh to demand all the dinners wore a tie.
Apparently the waiter didn't really look at who he was speaking to. Then realised. It wasn't that Schwartzenegger was offended - it was all in the mind of the waiter, as AS just stared at him.
My prediction is that there’s going to be one Tory gain in England that comes out of nowhere. Here’s an example of how it might happen.
There might also be a handful of weird results in Scotland.
I think this is quite likely as well and mentioned so yesterday.
Because of the likely wild moves in voting intentions compared to 2019 and 2017, there could be some weird anomaly situations including, yes, a Tory gain here or there.
There are also going to be some true 3-way marginals and would love to see a thread up about them.
If you thought the Tory dossier was dodgy….read on….
🧵 Here's my primer on that £2k "Labour tax bombshell" @rishisunak was going on abt. Warning: this is far more convoluted/bizarre/intriguing than u might have expected. & neither Lab nor Con come out of it v well. But let's begin with a proviso: WE DON'T HAVE THE MANIFESTOS YET!
The problem for Labour is the circle of ultra low, Tory taxation (since the autumn statement last year) cannot be squared with improved public services. Rishi on the other hand can explain away low taxes (since last year) because he is not obliged to improve public services. In reality he would be quite content to return to Osborne austerity.
Labour are thus lying, the Conservatives are not. Mind you I quite like well funded public services so I won't be voting Conservative.
Highest overall tax take since “the war” says hi.
Whoever wins this election will be raking it in, they don’t need headline tax raising promises when the highest tax take since war is not built on that honesty, but already built on stealth and dishonesty.
The stunt Julie pulled last night was just embarrassingly crass, the two party leaders could hardly believe their luck having an idiot standing before them, and your post is repeating the same daft mistake.
Whoever wins this election gets to take the mood of the country from the relegation zone to the play offs, that’s what’s so frustrating for the Conservatives
Labour are still going to win Chingford easily, even if Faiza Shaheen has a good showing with around 10% of the vote.
I have been trying to work out if the boundary changes there favour Labour. It's a remainish seat in northeast London but the boundaries have changed quite a but so hard to compare like with like...
As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.
BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?
Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.
(Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.
Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
IIRC the incident was when they were filming Red Sonja - one of those LA restaurants that thought it was posh to demand all the dinners wore a tie.
Apparently the waiter didn't really look at who he was speaking to. Then realised. It wasn't that Schwartzenegger was offended - it was all in the mind of the waiter, as AS just stared at him.
Then he put the offered tie on.
Ah! Am a big fan of GMF's work. And re: the tie, that makes perfect sense.
Even here in the US, we tend to forget Presdient William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.
But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.
Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."
(I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)
Wasn't there one with Harold Wilson, he got egged in the October 1974 campaign and said something like this "I remember in the 1970 election an egg was thrown at me, this March there wasn't a single egg thrown at me and now another egg has been thrown at me. This just goes to show... You can only afford to throw eggs under a Labour Government."
I think the all time winner of "brushing off hecklers" has to be Teddy Roosevelt
After being shot, he realised that it hadn't hit anything vital. So he gave a 50 minute speech. While leaking claret. Then went to the hospital.
As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.
BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?
Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.
(Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.
Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
Why didn't he go and get one. He could have said to the waiter "I'll be back"
Lewis Hamilton was refused entry into the Royal Box at Wimbledon a year or two back iirc. I believe in his case he was offered one and refused to wear it despite having been told beforehand about the rule.
@tomorrowsmps 🔵 I hear that the urgency for the Conservatives to find a candidate in every Btitish seat is so great that they are now contacting people who recently resigned from the approved candidates' list to see if they might nonetheless stand in a hopeless seat somewhere. https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1798335719645335579
Ironic if it is true that Rishi called a snap election to stop RefUK lining up a full slate.
Just Stormer in pugilistic mood on Sky too. Possible Labour could actually win the news cycle. We'll see.
They probably ought to try and change the subject. They are very vulnerable on tax, because everyone who has half a brain knows Labour will put them up, if only to pay for all the public sector pay increases.
"Enter Nigel Farage. My sense is that most of Farage’s supporters don’t want to wield power themselves, and that Farage himself doesn’t really want to be a constituency MP. Rather, Farage’s supporters seek representation, in something more like the medieval sense, as an “interest” or “estate” to be taken seriously. And not without reason: they’re a significant subset of the English polity."
As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.
BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?
Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.
(Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.
Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
Why didn't he go and get one. He could have said to the waiter "I'll be back"
Lewis Hamilton was refused entry into the Royal Box at Wimbledon a year or two back iirc. I believe in his case he was offered one and refused to wear it despite having been told beforehand about the rule.
Tie = Penis extension, obvs.
I have heard it on good authority that Lewis is, sadly, a bit of an egotistical tw*t
I was musing earlier about the only 3 truly and indisputably influential politicians in the UK of the last 50 years. It followed reflection on the journos’ luvvin over Michael Gove.
The only three who have truly been influential are:
Margaret Thatcher Tony Blair Boris Johnson
Lights fuse paper and runs .. although I do believe this to be the case.
As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.
BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?
Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.
(Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.
Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
Why didn't he go and get one. He could have said to the waiter "I'll be back"
Lewis Hamilton was refused entry into the Royal Box at Wimbledon a year or two back iirc. I believe in his case he was offered one and refused to wear it despite having been told beforehand about the rule.
Tie = Penis extension, obvs.
TBH, I find it weird that people complain about dress codes, and impolite if they try to break them. The venues/events make their dress codes clear. You might not like them, fair enough. But if you don't want to adhere to them, you are not obliged to attend. It really is that simple.
Regardless who got to the microphones first, There’s not a doubt from the three Debate polls, Starmer won big?
Anyone want to dispute that?
If it was a bad debate for Starmer and Labour, it certainly doesn’t show up anywhere in the debate polling, does it? 2 comfortable overall wins to one wafer thin loss. And across all of them Starmer cleans up in sub questions, who all report much the same thing in questions like on NHS and public services 63% to 25%, on the economy 52% to 36%, and defence and security 43% to 41%, as most honest" 54% to 29% and that the Labour leader "remained the calmest" 51% to 36%.
Who do you trust, is probably the only worthwhile indicator to the election picture you can get from a bit of head to head showbiz like this?
Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives? It’s being spun as good Sunak won 2-1 on the voted Conservative 2019 group, 60% to 33. Is that actually good, seriously? Surely that’s Labour going from 0 to 33, Tory’s from 100% to 60% in just a Tory voting sub group excluding all other voters? If that’s not horrifically bad in the bigger picture of add that to overall polling, define horrifically bad.
Correct me where wrong, from 1992-1997 Blair only managed a mere 14% of direct switchers. And how much of that 60% above comes out and votes for the Conservatives? That would be difference between respectable result and wipe out, not just direct switchers.
Interesting to look at the 2019 Conservative vote - the latest Deltapoll has it 55% Conservative, 22% Labour and 17% Reform once the DKs are taken out. R&W on Monday had 42% Conservative, 21% Labour, 19% Reform and 11% DK among likely voters and finally 48% Con, 24% Labour and 22% Reform with the DKs removed. That might explain 20% Conservative VI with R&W and 25% with Deltapoll and 14% Reform with R&W and 9% with Deltapoll.
I haven't seen the data tables for JL Partners and Savanta but my presumption would be they would find a larger percentage of 2019 Conservative voters still in the Conservative camp.
This is the key group - those who voted Conservative in 2019 - if Sunak is holding barely half of those who voted for Johnson (and he doesn't seem to be finding too many replacements), he's in big trouble.
Once the coalition which voted you in falls apart you have to create another or you're toast.
New: election gets (even) more personal as Keir Starmer says Rishi Sunak deliberately lied about Labour's alleged £2,000 tax plan being civil service costed, and potentially breached the ministerial code.
Particularly given the recent record of the source, Caveat Emptor....
It is a story that hacks are gossiping about in private, the story has been going around in legal circles for years and Guido hears that more than one newspaper is only now trying to stand the story up. Labour’s senior campaign operatives are well aware of the story and are said to have prepared a counter-strategy if it breaks during the election campaign.
My prediction is that there’s going to be one Tory gain in England that comes out of nowhere. Here’s an example of how it might happen.
There might also be a handful of weird results in Scotland.
I think this is quite likely as well and mentioned so yesterday.
Because of the likely wild moves in voting intentions compared to 2019 and 2017, there could be some weird anomaly situations including, yes, a Tory gain here or there.
There are also going to be some true 3-way marginals and would love to see a thread up about them.
In any normal election, these sort of vagaries would be fascinating. However, my expectation is that the cratering of the Tory vote will be so great that there will be no gains anywhere, even where the vote is highly split.
As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.
BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?
Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.
(Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.
Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
Why didn't he go and get one. He could have said to the waiter "I'll be back"
Lewis Hamilton was refused entry into the Royal Box at Wimbledon a year or two back iirc. I believe in his case he was offered one and refused to wear it despite having been told beforehand about the rule.
FWIW Tory majority has lengthened somewhat since the debate last night.
Now out to 60 (was 55 last night).
That's a tiny movement, less than half a percent.
If a poll leaks, you are most likely to see significant movement first on the spreads. I don't think leaks are common though. Rumour and guesswork are far more influential.
I refer you to The Day The Dam Broke, by James Thurber.
That loud scream of joy emanated from Sir Iain Duncan Smith.
Wonder what the Chingford Skinhead would make of this....
It’s a fascinating point I was talking to my Dad about. In the eighties Lady Thatchers seat and this one seemed like they should be Conservative for ever.
Was Boris get Brexit off the ******* news majority a last hurrah in a changing country 🫣
"The first minister wiped away tears as his Labour colleague Vikki Howells spoke up on his behalf and denounced the Conservative motion as a “travesty”."
A vote of no confidence is a travesty? It sounds like democracy in action to me.
As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.
BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?
Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.
(Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.
Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
Why didn't he go and get one. He could have said to the waiter "I'll be back"
Lewis Hamilton was refused entry into the Royal Box at Wimbledon a year or two back iirc. I believe in his case he was offered one and refused to wear it despite having been told beforehand about the rule.
Despite the horrors of war Odessa is enchanting on a soft warm summer evening. The woman are extraordinary. The cool breezes blow off the Black Sea, freshening the boulevards
In a weird way I can see why the Russians want it back. They built it. They paid for it. It is entirely Russian in origin, it would not exist if it wasn’t for
Jesus Christ I just heard a massive explosion
Quit the melodrama, some of us know people in Odessa and it really isn't clever. Wouldn't surprise me if you were somewhere no more dangerous than Tunbridge Wells.
Even here in the US, we tend to forget Presdient William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.
But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.
Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."
(I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)
Certainly sounds in character for Taft, who was by all reports a pretty funny guy when he wanted to be.
HOWEVER, must take issue with "we tend to forget" WHT. Seeing as how every schoolkid in USA knows (or at least used to) that he was the only POTUS ever known to have gotten stuck in his White House bathtub. (Could have happened to Bill Clinton during his second term; and might have happened to Chris Christie IF Big Boy ever resided at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.)
BTW, I once met Taft's grandson. In Dublin, where he was a resident and member of the Irish Labour Party.
"The first minister wiped away tears as his Labour colleague Vikki Howells spoke up on his behalf and denounced the Conservative motion as a “travesty”."
A vote of no confidence is a travesty? It sounds like democracy in action to me.
This is Wales, dammit. Nothing shall interfere with the divine right of Labour to rule.
Particularly given the recent record of the source, Caveat Emptor....
It is a story that hacks are gossiping about in private, the story has been going around in legal circles for years and Guido hears that more than one newspaper is only now trying to stand the story up. Labour’s senior campaign operatives are well aware of the story and are said to have prepared a counter-strategy if it breaks during the election campaign.
When was the last time the public cared about politicians putting it about? Cecil Parkinson?
The only noticeable Labour male is Starmer. All the rest are such lightweights and non-entities it wouldn't matter a bit. If it was Starmer and it got announced in the campaign that would be a bit different, because he likes to come across as such a goody goody.
Despite the horrors of war Odessa is enchanting on a soft warm summer evening. The woman are extraordinary. The cool breezes blow off the Black Sea, freshening the boulevards
In a weird way I can see why the Russians want it back. They built it. They paid for it. It is entirely Russian in origin, it would not exist if it wasn’t for
Jesus Christ I just heard a massive explosion
Quit the melodrama, some of us know people in Odessa and it really isn't clever. Wouldn't surprise me if you were somewhere no more dangerous than Tunbridge Wells.
I am in Odessa
So, yeah, you do know someone in Odessa. It's me
Bet the waiting staff are loving that picture on your screen.
Regardless who got to the microphones first, There’s not a doubt from the three Debate polls, Starmer won big?
Anyone want to dispute that?
If it was a bad debate for Starmer and Labour, it certainly doesn’t show up anywhere in the debate polling, does it? 2 comfortable overall wins to one wafer thin loss. And across all of them Starmer cleans up in sub questions, who all report much the same thing in questions like on NHS and public services 63% to 25%, on the economy 52% to 36%, and defence and security 43% to 41%, as most honest" 54% to 29% and that the Labour leader "remained the calmest" 51% to 36%.
Who do you trust, is probably the only worthwhile indicator to the election picture you can get from a bit of head to head showbiz like this?
Crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives? It’s being spun as good Sunak won 2-1 on the voted Conservative 2019 group, 60% to 33. Is that actually good, seriously? Surely that’s Labour going from 0 to 33, Tory’s from 100% to 60% in just a Tory voting sub group excluding all other voters? If that’s not horrifically bad in the bigger picture of add that to overall polling, define horrifically bad.
Correct me where wrong, from 1992-1997 Blair only managed a mere 14% of direct switchers. And how much of that 60% above comes out and votes for the Conservatives? That would be difference between respectable result and wipe out, not just direct switchers.
There is a VI poll out at 5pm which should give us a better idea*. But yes, your analysis seems fair.
*METHODOLOGY CHANGE KLAXON
Herding is done for safety in numbers. Bird murmurs are the same. Or the predator will get one of us, but if I’m with 100 other possible victims my chances are better.
The instinct of polling companies to herd exactly same thing?
As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.
BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?
Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.
(Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.
Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
Why didn't he go and get one. He could have said to the waiter "I'll be back"
Lewis Hamilton was refused entry into the Royal Box at Wimbledon a year or two back iirc. I believe in his case he was offered one and refused to wear it despite having been told beforehand about the rule.
Tie = Penis extension, obvs.
No, they aren't
Oh, you mean a substitute rather than extension?
Neither - their origin is quite well documented.
The only thing sillier than a tie is the people who make a terrible fuss about how "something or the other" they are.
If the dress code says wear a tie, either wear it or don't go.
As indeed she should be, assuming that's the appropriate charge under EngLaw.
BTW, how did NF react to being splashed?
Reason I ask, is that back at the dawn of our current millennium, when he ran first time for Gov of Cali, Arnold Schwartzenegger had similar experience. Which he literally brushed off with a smile, which was captured in a great photo. Which was a small but not insignificant boost to his campaign.
(Can't locate the pix but it's out there somewhere in the worldwide web.)
There was a great quote from GMF about going to a restaurant with Schwartzenegger, who was told by a waiter to put on a tie. Something about watching a very small person realise he had upset an Easter Island statute.
Who or what is "GMF"? And WHY would AS be offended by a waiter asking him to wear a tie at a restaurant that (stupidly) requires diners to wear a tie? Seeing as he could have hardly been unaware of the custom.
Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
Why didn't he go and get one. He could have said to the waiter "I'll be back"
Lewis Hamilton was refused entry into the Royal Box at Wimbledon a year or two back iirc. I believe in his case he was offered one and refused to wear it despite having been told beforehand about the rule.
Tie = Penis extension, obvs.
I have heard it on good authority that Lewis is, sadly, a bit of an egotistical tw*t
That loud scream of joy emanated from Sir Iain Duncan Smith.
I thought he was supposed to be "the quiet man"?
Top lolz if he wins and stands for leader again, though. Can't be any worse than the current front runners who are in with a chance of retaining their seats.
Of course it would be different for IDS a second time round. In between times he became a [semi-demi-hemi] hero for resigning when Osborne salami sliced universal credit.
Despite the horrors of war Odessa is enchanting on a soft warm summer evening. The woman are extraordinary. The cool breezes blow off the Black Sea, freshening the boulevards
In a weird way I can see why the Russians want it back. They built it. They paid for it. It is entirely Russian in origin, it would not exist if it wasn’t for
Jesus Christ I just heard a massive explosion
Quit the melodrama, some of us know people in Odessa and it really isn't clever. Wouldn't surprise me if you were somewhere no more dangerous than Tunbridge Wells.
I am in Odessa
So, yeah, you do know someone in Odessa. It's me
Bet the waiting staff are loving that picture on your screen.
The quality of Labour defence arguments are risible. I particularly like the one that only the voters can decide who is in the Senedd which is confusing, as the voters didn’t get much of a say in Gething being FM.
Even here in the US, we tend to forget Presdient William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.
But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.
Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."
(I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)
Wasn't there one with Harold Wilson, he got egged in the October 1974 campaign and said something like this "I remember in the 1970 election an egg was thrown at me, this March there wasn't a single egg thrown at me and now another egg has been thrown at me. This just goes to show... You can only afford to throw eggs under a Labour Government."
I think the all time winner of "brushing off hecklers" has to be Teddy Roosevelt
After being shot, he realised that it hadn't hit anything vital. So he gave a 50 minute speech. While leaking claret. Then went to the hospital.
Indeed. And told the crowd NOT to harm his would-be assassin.
Reason TR did it, was because he thought that demonstrating yet again his famed intestinal fortitude MIGHT change the trajectory of the election, which until then was clearly Woodrow Wilson's to win.
For a few days it seemed as though that could happen, public response being overwhelming pro-Teddy. But then emotions subsided, reason (and partisanship) took hold, and he ended up in 2nd place, behind WW but ahead of his hand-picked successor WHT.
“ Almost nobody has any way of evaluating whether it's true or indeed any idea at all re any of the figures.”. 🤣. You’ve not ready any of the thread or watched any news today
"Leading UK cyclist out of Tour of Britain after being struck at ‘high speed’ by 4x4 Kate Richardson broke collarbone in ‘incredibly scary’ incident Driver ‘turned around and came back to verbally abuse’"
Even here in the US, we tend to forget Presdient William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.
But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.
Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."
(I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)
Wasn't there one with Harold Wilson, he got egged in the October 1974 campaign and said something like this "I remember in the 1970 election an egg was thrown at me, this March there wasn't a single egg thrown at me and now another egg has been thrown at me. This just goes to show... You can only afford to throw eggs under a Labour Government."
I think the all time winner of "brushing off hecklers" has to be Teddy Roosevelt
After being shot, he realised that it hadn't hit anything vital. So he gave a 50 minute speech. While leaking claret. Then went to the hospital.
Indeed. And told the crowd NOT to harm his would-be assassin.
Reason TR did it, was because he thought that demonstrating yet again his famed intestinal fortitude MIGHT change the trajectory of the election, which until then was clearly Woodrow Wilson's to win.
For a few days it seemed as though that could happen, public response being overwhelming pro-Teddy. But then emotions subsided, reason (and partisanship) took hold, and he ended up in 2nd place, behind WW but ahead of his hand-picked successor WHT.
My immediate reaction was to think what a change it must have been for him, to be on the other end of a bullet!
Having not watched the debate only snippets, I thought one of the weirdest / face slipping thing was Starmer saying no he would never use private health.
What never, you kids are dying, you can only get that treatment privately and your idealogical purity would override that? That isn't the same as doing a Diane Abbott and sending your kids private after railing against private education (that isn't life and death).
Even lesser than that, your kid is in agony, lets say had an accident and smashed in face / teeth. You wouldn't pay for a private dentist to sort it tomorrow, rather than have to wait months (and may never get the full treatment via NHS dentist). Same with hips / knees, the pain from that for many old people is life limiting.
Surely the easy answer is we need to make the NHS better, it fails too many people, so even normal people are being faced with these decisions, that they should never have to....
What condition do you have in mind that would kill your children, but is treatable only privately?
I can't think of one.
Indeed paediatric services are generally very poor privately as few private hospitals can meet the CQC approval for children.
We see it all the time, where there are treatments only available in say US. They aren't licensed here and there is some charity drive to raise the money to send them.
But, even on the lesser note. Things like hips / knees, the wait list is years on NHS. And things like NHS dentistry doesn't over everything or won't get to you for a very very long time.
As I said, the easy answer is
"As PM I will improve the NHS, people shouldn't be having to make these decisions, but I understand that family is the most important thing and thus why people pay to go private. I support the NHS, I believe in the NHS, but there are very rare circumstances where if forced I am very fortunate to be able to make such a decision to help a family member. "
That to me seems the normal human response.
Treatments only available in the US are unusual. We hear about them because they are newsworthy precisely because they are rare.
Many, probably most, of these aren't available in the UK because NICE and the NHS have looked at them and decided they don't really work. Hope is a very powerful motivator and people want to believe some obscure, expensive thing in the US will work... but 9 times out of 10, it won't.
There are cases where something works and is so prohibitively expensive that the NHS won't do it. But they're very rare.
That is all fair points, but it doesn't change that if we believe Starmer he wouldn't even entertain the possibility / look into it if it was a family member. Each to their own, but its not an ideology I can personally understand.
I can understand why someone would take the principled stance not to use private health care, much as they might do for private education. What I don't understand is imposing your own viewpoint on your own family members, even when they are dying!
Wasn't the question - would you pay for someone in your family to get private healthcare - I can see why the answer to that would be no especially when your don't have £xm in the bank...
If one of my family members were in need of it I would like to think I would spend my last penny to get them the best healthcare. Pity Labour supporters families; they would rather the tax payer picked up the bill, even if they could afford it, and let their family member suffer longer so they can believe themselves pure while they book their next holiday in the Maldives.
I don't think that's how people read it. The question was 'are you prepared to pay to queue jump?'
People do it all the time - fast queues at airports, Ticketmaster, anything premium. You must do it all the time.
I do. As I said earlier I'm in BUPA which is what it's for. I was obliged to for work but I would think better of someone who unlike me refused to on principle.
That's like saying you'd take a pay cut because your boss would think better of you.
PS he wouldn't
- If you were on the council house waiting list but got offered a job which paid enough for you to rent privately, would you take it? - Oh no, Julie, it's a council house for me. I'd wait my turn with everyone else.
"I was obliged to for work" - how "obliged"?
1) Told to use it? 2) Told using it was a condition of employment? 3) Strapped to a stretcher and abducted to a BUPA hospital by heavily armed Unitarian Fundamentalists?
I remember when I taught in the independent sector I had to be in BUPA. It was a condition of employment though they paid my yearly subscription. I never used it myself, only my wife. I had to pay tax on the subscription as a benefit in kind.
Any sensible government would treat private healthcare expenditure (available to all employees) as deductible against employer NI, rather than try to tax it as a BIK for the employee.
Government needs to get as many people as possible out of the NHS, and encourage private providers to expand overall provision, not to mention the amount of absence that could be saved by fast-tracking those off work for months waiting for treatment.
The Government also needs the £60bn that employer NI generates - and I will note I suspect that will increase post the election because no-one is talking about Employer NI
Which if you need growth is the absolutely wrong thing to do. Its a tax on jobs. Its why Sunak was such a moron to go down this road before the U-Turn, with his NI++ scheme.
Of course, but it’s politically easy to tax employers becuase no-one outside of the business media cares what the CBI or “the boss class” has to say.
Well also big business can absorb this a lot easier. They already constant revolving door of hires and fires which is cost of doing business that is factored in when you are large.
Small employer that is much bigger deal. Do you want to expand and hire another 5-10 people, it makes things a lot harder decision.
A big problem is because the mega companies have taken the piss over paying tax, government have moved more and more to taxes that are basically just for operating a business rather than making money. This is fine for an Amazon, as otherwise they have the size and flexibility to play the international shell company game. But your local businessman with a business that is 100% physically located in one place, its far worse.
As I have said before, the UK now has (as a proportion) of the economy very few medium sized businesses. How do you get those, by small businesses growing. We don't have that, which is a big problem.
Part of the issue is that at every stage of a business there's a new big cost in the UK. The three that spring to mind are the VAT threshold for single person businesses (should be lowered right down to £10k), the sliding corp tax rate and audit costs when you need to start getting audited.
Cost and red tape.
Again, no discussion of these problem by the major parties. Instead its a day of no you are liar, no you are liar, its £2k extra, no £3k. It will be more than that if the economy doesn't find any growth.
It really is quite funny how the line from the Sunak loyalists has changed over the last 24 hours.
Last night: "Ha ha! Sunak has really won the debate and nailed Starmer with the £2000 tax thing!"
Today: "Oh really all this talk about whether Sunak was lying is a distraction from the real issues."
Except, the Labour £2,000 extra tax thing is now out there as a real Thing.
Is "a real Thing" nowadays what we used to call a "lie"?
Labour's refusing-to-raise-taxes-but-are-going-to-improve-public-services-including-the-NHS is something Labour wanted kept in the dark, but has now had a light shone on it.
Labour could always, you know, do the honesty thing and admit that taxes are going to rise, to ensure services will improve. But last night, Starmer confirmed no tax, NI or VAT rises (except for on private education).
That is the lie at the heart of this election. Either taxes go up - or services don't improve.
If what you say is true, then Sunak could have "you know, done the honesty thing" and simply pointed that contradiction out, however many dozen times it was.
Instead, he told a barefaced lie about civil servants having calculated this specific figure. You must see that the danger of that is that the debate would move on very rapidly from "What is Labour hiding?" to "How does Sunak think he can get away with telling such barefaced lies?"
Do you really think it was better to lie than tell the truth?
I was musing earlier about the only 3 truly and indisputably influential politicians in the UK of the last 50 years. It followed reflection on the journos’ luvvin over Michael Gove.
The only three who have truly been influential are:
Margaret Thatcher Tony Blair Boris Johnson
Lights fuse paper and runs .. although I do believe this to be the case.
Boris for permanently wrecking the Conservative Party (with help from the ghost of Mrs T) presumably because Nigel Farage is probably the politician most responsible for Brexit. I'm not sure about Tony Blair either.
Alex Salmond and/or Nicola Sturgeon, whichever you credit with turning Scotland yellow.
Just Stormer in pugilistic mood on Sky too. Possible Labour could actually win the news cycle. We'll see.
They probably ought to try and change the subject. They are very vulnerable on tax, because everyone who has half a brain knows Labour will put them up, if only to pay for all the public sector pay increases.
Maybe in this election, unlike 1992, what you describe is exactly what voters want.
I was musing earlier about the only 3 truly and indisputably influential politicians in the UK of the last 50 years. It followed reflection on the journos’ luvvin over Michael Gove.
The only three who have truly been influential are:
Margaret Thatcher Tony Blair Boris Johnson
Lights fuse paper and runs .. although I do believe this to be the case.
Blair ceded so much of the domestic agenda to Brown that you can make a strong case for Brown's consequentialism. And then he also blocked Blair from trying to join the Euro, and that certainly had consequences.
You could also argue that Cameron was more consequential then Johnson over Brexit, if unintentionally.
I think it would be more interesting to consider the politicians who were more consequential than their reputation would suggest, and have been overlooked.
Even here in the US, we tend to forget Presdient William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.
But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.
Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."
(I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)
Wasn't there one with Harold Wilson, he got egged in the October 1974 campaign and said something like this "I remember in the 1970 election an egg was thrown at me, this March there wasn't a single egg thrown at me and now another egg has been thrown at me. This just goes to show... You can only afford to throw eggs under a Labour Government."
I think the all time winner of "brushing off hecklers" has to be Teddy Roosevelt
After being shot, he realised that it hadn't hit anything vital. So he gave a 50 minute speech. While leaking claret. Then went to the hospital.
Indeed. And told the crowd NOT to harm his would-be assassin.
Reason TR did it, was because he thought that demonstrating yet again his famed intestinal fortitude MIGHT change the trajectory of the election, which until then was clearly Woodrow Wilson's to win.
For a few days it seemed as though that could happen, public response being overwhelming pro-Teddy. But then emotions subsided, reason (and partisanship) took hold, and he ended up in 2nd place, behind WW but ahead of his hand-picked successor WHT.
My immediate reaction was to think what a change it must have been for him, to be on the other end of a bullet!
Even here in the US, we tend to forget Presdient William Howard Taft, because he came between two much more famous presidents, Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.
But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.
Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."
(I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)
Wasn't there one with Harold Wilson, he got egged in the October 1974 campaign and said something like this "I remember in the 1970 election an egg was thrown at me, this March there wasn't a single egg thrown at me and now another egg has been thrown at me. This just goes to show... You can only afford to throw eggs under a Labour Government."
I think the all time winner of "brushing off hecklers" has to be Teddy Roosevelt
After being shot, he realised that it hadn't hit anything vital. So he gave a 50 minute speech. While leaking claret. Then went to the hospital.
Indeed. And told the crowd NOT to harm his would-be assassin.
Reason TR did it, was because he thought that demonstrating yet again his famed intestinal fortitude MIGHT change the trajectory of the election, which until then was clearly Woodrow Wilson's to win.
For a few days it seemed as though that could happen, public response being overwhelming pro-Teddy. But then emotions subsided, reason (and partisanship) took hold, and he ended up in 2nd place, behind WW but ahead of his hand-picked successor WHT.
My immediate reaction was to think what a change it must have been for him, to be on the other end of a bullet!
Just Stormer in pugilistic mood on Sky too. Possible Labour could actually win the news cycle. We'll see.
They probably ought to try and change the subject. They are very vulnerable on tax, because everyone who has half a brain knows Labour will put them up, if only to pay for all the public sector pay increases.
Maybe in this election, unlike 1992, what you describe is exactly what voters want.
SKS is no Blair but equally he is no Kinnock - he's more like John Smith...
Problem is Rishi isn't John Major he's Iain Duncan Smith...
I don't expect it but if there is a Tory gain in England my pick is Cramlington and Killingworth. This election will disguise it but there is a long-term trend towards Conservatives in the towns of Northern England, boundary changes have made a Tory gain in GE19 (Blyth Valley) into a notional Labour seat but only by less than 2% and that was despite a sizeable Brexit party vote (7.9%). The incumbent MP for much of the new constituency is standing again, the Labour candidate isn't a councillor or seems to have much of a profile. The polls would have to narrow and the Brexit/Reform vote will have to be squeezed but it doesn't seem completely impossible.
Just saying "£2,000 tax rise under Labour" puts it in people's minds.
Almost nobody has any way of evaluating whether it's true or indeed any idea at all re any of the figures.
But the more the number is said, the more it seeps into people's minds.
If he had just said "we calculate Labour's tax rise will be £2000", then that might be true.
But for some unfathomable reason he felt compelled to preface the claim by saying it had been calculated by independent civil servants. With the result that Labour was able to expose it as a lie the very next day.
This has turned into just one more example of the incompetence of the Tory campaign.
Despite the horrors of war Odessa is enchanting on a soft warm summer evening. The woman are extraordinary. The cool breezes blow off the Black Sea, freshening the boulevards
In a weird way I can see why the Russians want it back. They built it. They paid for it. It is entirely Russian in origin, it would not exist if it wasn’t for
Jesus Christ I just heard a massive explosion
Quit the melodrama, some of us know people in Odessa and it really isn't clever. Wouldn't surprise me if you were somewhere no more dangerous than Tunbridge Wells.
I am in Odessa
So, yeah, you do know someone in Odessa. It's me
Doesn't matter if there's no electricity, as long as they can still serve Aperol spritzes.
Comments
Do we all remember the great heat scare of 2022....must all stay inside or die from 40c.
But he once got off a pretty good line. He was giving a speech, and a man in the crowd protested by throwing a head of cabbage at Taft. He missed, which wasn't easy because Taft was a big man.
Taft looked at the head of cabbage briefly, turned to the crowd and said: "Ladies and gentlemen, I see one of my opponents has lost his head."
(I have long thought that, by saying that, Taft changed the situation from let's fight to let's laugh -- which is the right thing to do at elast 90 percent of the time.)
There might also be a handful of weird results in Scotland.
Now out to 60 (was 55 last night).
Of course the manner in which he was asked MIGHT be a factor. Or AS's (pun NOT intended) demeanor at that moment.
Top lolz if he wins and stands for leader again, though. Can't be any worse than the current front runners who are in with a chance of retaining their seats.
@PGMcNamara
🚨Punchy from @Keir_Starmer on **that** £2,000 tax line.
About the Prime Minister @RishiSunak
:
“He resorted to LIES and he knew they were lies”
https://x.com/PGMcNamara/status/1798370211541987724
That's the clip for the evening news tonight...
"If you're going through hell, keep going..." Winston Churchill
IIRC the incident was when they were filming Red Sonja - one of those LA restaurants that thought it was posh to demand all the dinners wore a tie.
Apparently the waiter didn't really look at who he was speaking to. Then realised. It wasn't that Schwartzenegger was offended - it was all in the mind of the waiter, as AS just stared at him.
Then he put the offered tie on.
Because of the likely wild moves in voting intentions compared to 2019 and 2017, there could be some weird anomaly situations including, yes, a Tory gain here or there.
There are also going to be some true 3-way marginals and would love to see a thread up about them.
Whoever wins this election will be raking it in, they don’t need headline tax raising promises when the highest tax take since war is not built on that honesty, but already built on stealth and dishonesty.
The stunt Julie pulled last night was just embarrassingly crass, the two party leaders could hardly believe their luck having an idiot standing before them, and your post is repeating the same daft mistake.
Whoever wins this election gets to take the mood of the country from the relegation zone to the play offs, that’s what’s so frustrating for the Conservatives
After being shot, he realised that it hadn't hit anything vital. So he gave a 50 minute speech. While leaking claret. Then went to the hospital.
Tie = Penis extension, obvs.
"Enter Nigel Farage. My sense is that most of Farage’s supporters don’t want to wield power themselves, and that Farage himself doesn’t really want to be a constituency MP. Rather, Farage’s supporters seek representation, in something more like the medieval sense, as an “interest” or “estate” to be taken seriously. And not without reason: they’re a significant subset of the English polity."
https://unherd.com/2024/06/nigel-farages-post-democratic-revolt/
The only three who have truly been influential are:
Margaret Thatcher
Tony Blair
Boris Johnson
Lights fuse paper and runs .. although I do believe this to be the case.
I haven't seen the data tables for JL Partners and Savanta but my presumption would be they would find a larger percentage of 2019 Conservative voters still in the Conservative camp.
This is the key group - those who voted Conservative in 2019 - if Sunak is holding barely half of those who voted for Johnson (and he doesn't seem to be finding too many replacements), he's in big trouble.
Once the coalition which voted you in falls apart you have to create another or you're toast.
New: election gets (even) more personal as Keir Starmer says Rishi Sunak deliberately lied about Labour's alleged £2,000 tax plan being civil service costed, and potentially breached the ministerial code.
https://x.com/peterwalker99/status/1798374188694356454
ETA It did not do John Prescott any harm, or Boris. Guido's tumescence is all a bit 20th Century.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/05/rabuka-oceania-75-prime-minister-bronze-medal-shot-put-age/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-69091623
If a poll leaks, you are most likely to see significant movement first on the spreads. I don't think leaks are common though. Rumour and guesswork are far more influential.
I refer you to The Day The Dam Broke, by James Thurber.
Our local serial-criminal Deputy Council Leader started about a decade ago by poking a competitor in the forehead with his finger and leaving a mark.
He was done by the beak for Assault by Beating.
https://www.chad.co.uk/news/ashfield-councillors-street-assault-on-political-rival-2198539
Was Boris get Brexit off the ******* news majority a last hurrah in a changing country 🫣
A vote of no confidence is a travesty? It sounds like democracy in action to me.
Just saying "£2,000 tax rise under Labour" puts it in people's minds.
Almost nobody has any way of evaluating whether it's true or indeed any idea at all re any of the figures.
But the more the number is said, the more it seeps into people's minds.
My only conclusion is that the public decided long ago and so have just said who they'd vote for instead.
So, yeah, you do know someone in Odessa. It's me
HOWEVER, must take issue with "we tend to forget" WHT. Seeing as how every schoolkid in USA knows (or at least used to) that he was the only POTUS ever known to have gotten stuck in his White House bathtub. (Could have happened to Bill Clinton during his second term; and might have happened to Chris Christie IF Big Boy ever resided at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.)
BTW, I once met Taft's grandson. In Dublin, where he was a resident and member of the Irish Labour Party.
https://x.com/drjennings/status/1798354614305329165?s=19
Belated New Thread (thanks @viewcode)
Or the predator will get one of us, but if I’m with 100 other possible victims my chances are better.
The instinct of polling companies to herd exactly same thing?
The only thing sillier than a tie is the people who make a terrible fuss about how "something or the other" they are.
If the dress code says wear a tie, either wear it or don't go.
There's no prisoners of conscience for ties.
Failed to find discussion for commenting.
DiscussionID is required.
Reason TR did it, was because he thought that demonstrating yet again his famed intestinal fortitude MIGHT change the trajectory of the election, which until then was clearly Woodrow Wilson's to win.
For a few days it seemed as though that could happen, public response being overwhelming pro-Teddy. But then emotions subsided, reason (and partisanship) took hold, and he ended up in 2nd place, behind WW but ahead of his hand-picked successor WHT.
Kate Richardson broke collarbone in ‘incredibly scary’ incident
Driver ‘turned around and came back to verbally abuse’"
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/jun/05/leading-uk-cyclist-kate-richardson-out-of-tour-of-britain-after-driver-hit-her-at-high-speed-cycling
Instead, he told a barefaced lie about civil servants having calculated this specific figure. You must see that the danger of that is that the debate would move on very rapidly from "What is Labour hiding?" to "How does Sunak think he can get away with telling such barefaced lies?"
Do you really think it was better to lie than tell the truth?
Alex Salmond and/or Nicola Sturgeon, whichever you credit with turning Scotland yellow.
Now Active
You could also argue that Cameron was more consequential then Johnson over Brexit, if unintentionally.
I think it would be more interesting to consider the politicians who were more consequential than their reputation would suggest, and have been overlooked.
But this was just a small part of his score:
https://www.vox.com/2015/7/29/9067587/theodore-roosevelt-safari
Problem is Rishi isn't John Major he's Iain Duncan Smith...
But for some unfathomable reason he felt compelled to preface the claim by saying it had been calculated by independent civil servants. With the result that Labour was able to expose it as a lie the very next day.
This has turned into just one more example of the incompetence of the Tory campaign.