Categories
What’s tonight’s debate going to this betting market? – politicalbetting.com
What’s tonight’s debate going to this betting market? – politicalbetting.com
Unless Starmer or Sunak soil themselves on stage I expect very little change to the market.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Hannah Rose Woods
@hannahrosewoods
Tfw you really enjoy flint knapping
https://x.com/hannahrosewoods/status/1797937407259816171
Hinting at Survation’s MRP at 8. What do we reckon this ‘worth waiting for’ and ‘recommend you reserve judgment’ phrasing means then? Post-Farage Reform surge accounted for in Survation methodology? Or just much better numbers for Labour?
https://x.com/KieranMullanUK/status/1798002557031428333
"Dr Kieran Mullan 🇬🇧 🇺🇦
@KieranMullanUK
Incredible honour to be selected as the MP candidate for Bexhill & Battle. I want to take what I learnt as an NHS doctor, volunteer policeman and MP to deliver for residents."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13494115/I-just-felt-like-Woman-25-arrested-throwing-milkshake-Nigel-Farage-doesnt-represent-believe-Reform-UK-leader-incident-frightening.html
I am going to guess she thought great idea to pull a stunt like this to increase her OF following.
@Sandpit , Sinner is a brilliant young men’s player. He won the Grand Slam Australian Open.
@AndyJS there are actually quite a few 3-way marginals. It would make for a great thread if someone felt like writing it up.
I’m in one. Newton Abbot. A case can be made for any of Con-LibDem-Lab to win it. Indeed the most reputable tactical voting sites have decided to defer advising for two more weeks.
The way the polls are, there could be a number of these and some quite strange-looking anomalies because of the wild shifts in public opinion.
Corbyn's campaign launch last Wednesday received quite a lot of attention in the national press - the friendlier outlets stressing that it was "well-attended by people of all ages", but as far as I could see the crowd consisted of community activists and union reps in their late 50s or older. The millennials who were inspired by the 2017 campaign were conspicuous by their absence, and there seemed to be very little comment on social media from anyone within the constituency itself.
The next day, Labour's Praful Nargund launched his campaign to a closed audience of 50 placard-waving members of the CLP. This was a much more artificial event, and received little attention from everyone apart from OnLondon's Dave Hill, who lives locally.
Corbyn's campaign have begun canvassing. They've not yet reached me, but a friend who lives a few streets away reports that they turned up at her place on Friday, "behaving like TV licence inspectors". Searching online reveals other reports of aggressive canvassing, such as:
"Someone knocked on our door, canvassing for Jeremy Corbyn, and I asked them to not darken my doorstep. He said, I will come back every day until you vote Corbyn. Marvellous PR for Labour."
https://x.com/lucyinglis/status/1796055597823021507
Whether this matters or not is open to question - it could just be a single inexperienced activist to blame, but if it's a more widespread issue it could easily start turning people off.
There's been no other visible activity from either side as yet - which is in itself notable, as I had been expecting Corbyn to run this like a by-election campaign. It could be that his 'building a network' style of campaigning will take a while longer to get moving, and there's still time for him to kick things up a notch. If that doesn't happen, though, I would expect Labour to win this by default on the back of their national profile.
Corbyn Street
Let's take a closer look at the activity in one residential street - chosen because of its name, but with a good mix of housing types and tenures, it's not untypical of the constituency as a whole.
Labour: 3 window posters (2 for Praful Nargund, 1 generic Labour)
Corbyn: 1 small flyer in the window
SDP: ~200 (a box of leaflets from the recent GLA elections, dumped in the garden of a house being renovated)
Access denied! Rapidly updating one might assume.
I'm currently in hospital with an abscess that is going to require surgery so I’m likely to be hors de combat for a few days.
RCS will be running the site for a few days.
If only there was some way to test this. Some way of seeing how the locals feel.
Throw away the key.
I mean the Viz headlines write themselves
That's..... that's 14 more votes for Reform!
England require 109 from ten overs.
Going to be interesting.
C’mon England.
And then Schulz said to me[Biden], "What would you say Mr President, if tomorrow you pick up The London Times and found out that thousands of people stormed the British Parliament, broke down the doors, killed two Bobbies to prevent the implement - the swearing in of a, of a preime minister, a choice of prime minister?"
https://nitter.poast.org/pic/orig/media/GPOiavxWYAA_TDR.jpg
Sandpit said:
» show previous quotes
Well yesterday’s revelation was that they couldn’t find 34,000 people in New York who wanted to pay to watch a cricket match staged 30 miles out of town.
SSI - Not surprising.
However, your analysis as to reasons why is a tad flawed, seeing that:
> more people live in Queen (part of NYC) than in Manhattan ("town"); and
> Queens is also more ethically diverse, with greater numbers & percentages of South and West Indians.
In a flimsy attempt at humour, we might note that in politics we also have painful collections of pus in our body politic.
Though perhaps the odds on someone soiling themselves on stage tonight have just shortened.
(It's going to be Rishi, isn't it?)
https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1798006758750966187
Come on Scotland!
My constituency Bermondsey and Old Southwark is forecast 59% Labour 22% LD by Yougov, which would feel about right. But, the sitting MP has been found guilty of sexual harrassment, racism and bullying and harrassment and barred from Westminster bars. Quite a rap sheet, blames it on alcohol addiction, drinking 200 units a week. Says not drinking for last couple of years.
The anti-Tory vote should be fairly fungible here, LDs got 48% in 2010.
LDs 12/1 but I assume the gap is too wide.
🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for @Telegraph
📈14pt Labour lead - lowest since Feb
🌹Lab 42 (-2)
🌳Con 28 (+1)
🔶LD 9 (-1)
➡️Reform 9 (+1)
🌍Green 4 (=)
🎗️SNP 3 (=)
⬜️Other 5 (+1)
2,209 UK adults, 31 May - 2 June
(chg 24-26 May)
Obviously caused by too much modesty and cheap shoes.
However I suspect that was your sly intent, so fair enough! It is also very stimulating
Although perhaps this is like Mike going on holiday?
Will something major happen? Starmer bursts into tears on TV debate and says he doesn't really want to be PM after all - it was all for a stupid bet with his Arsenal mates?
If you hear Starmer speak, you know he lying. He will do or say anything just like Blair did. Get your Isa sorted now. Get as much as you can afford into a pension. Get your dividend income into an isa.
There is a tax storm coming.
You heard it on here.
I say again... be careful of your vote. What seems attractive now isn't going to be.. 2 yrs hence. .
Always has been, and likely always will.
Though it does NOT say good things about SDP, that (at least) one of their "activists" chose to litter rather than recycle the bumpf.
NEW: The woman who chucked a banana milkshake over Nigel Farage is a Labour-supporting OnlyFans model, @TheSun can reveal.
Even by folks (such as myself) who are NOT fluent in English.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/live/cd1152zl7w8t#player
Now we have far more young women willing to show / do a lot more for a few quid on Only Fans. Its far worse on the other side too, as it sets up this weird para-social relationship, where horny lonely guys pay a load of money often to talk to some bloke in a messaging centre (when they think they are paying the hot girl).
Beyond the shore of Britain, "Peeler" is less known & used than "Bobby". Though both terms reference the same person: Sir Robert Peel.
Note that Irish of his epoch enjoyed referring to his as "Orange Peel" for some reason . . .
I prefer a good magazine with features
Labour is currently estimated to be the largest party in the next parliament with 487 seats, the Conservatives second with 71 seats, followed by the Liberal Democrats with 43 seats and the SNP with 26 seats. This model currently finds Plaid on two to three seats, while there is a possibility that Reform could win three.
Whoever gets in is either going to have to cut services or increase taxes, or both.
https://order-order.com/2024/06/04/tanner-selected-for-brexit-backing-bury-st-edmunds-despite-anti-brexit-tweets/
(Which would have been odd, but I've seen odder on PB.)
https://www.norfolkislandreef.com.au/out-on-a-swim/casting-your-offspring-to-the-currents-sea-star-reproduction
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2023/dec/24/carol-vorderman-perfect-10-quiz-book-countdown-interview
I think her win when voted for by the members has coloured memories of exactly what happened during the leadership election.
The MRP analysis is based on online and telephone collected interviews of 30,044 people undertaken by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain with fieldwork carried out between 22nd May- 2nd June 2024. Survation moved to a full ballot-prompted methodology on May 30th and this approach is reflected in the most recent waves of sample, with the model taking into account time - giving more weight to recently collected data.
Our probabilistic approach estimates the probability of each party winning each seat and aggregates them to give us an idea of how the election would play out. For example, if a party has a 50% chance of winning in 4 seats, we allocate 2 seats to them. This approach indicates that Labour is currently estimated to be the largest party in the next parliament with 487 seats, the Conservatives second with 71 seats, followed by the Liberal Democrats with 43 seats and the SNP with 26 seats. This model currently finds Plaid on two to three seats, while there is a possibility that Reform could win three.
Many of these seats are direct contests between Labour and the Conservatives. While Labour is currently leading in 505 seats in terms of our average estimated vote share, the Conservatives fall close second within 5% of the Labour vote in 50 of those, while they come second within 10% of Labour’s vote share in a further 55 of those. Many seats remain in play, and we estimate that 126 seats would be decided by a margin of 5% or less if the election tomorrow.
The implied national vote share from the MRP model placed Labour on 43.2%, Conservatives on 24.3%, Lib Dems on 10.4%, Reform on 11.4% and the Green Party on 4.2%. The SNP would receive 3.3% of the vote, and Plaid 0.6% while other parties would receive a combined vote share of 2.6%.
While Reform does not currently lead any other parties in terms of any single constituency vote share, the model estimates that they have a one in four chance of winning Gainsborough and North West Norfolk, and a one in five chance of winning Clacton. While these estimates do not take into account Farage’s candidacy in Clacton, our constituency poll conducted in January showed that if he stood in the election, he would lead the Conservative candidate Giles Watling by 10%.
this from Dr Aseem Malhotra.
BREAKING FRONT PAGE TELEGRAPH
‘Covid jab may have led to rise in excess deaths’
FINALLY mainstream media acknowledgement in U.K.
We did it 🔥🔥🔥
https://x.com/DrAseemMalhotra/status/1797922073798717524
Partly, but not only, because abscess makes the heart grow fonder.