Survation's first MRP of the 2024 general election shows that if the election were to take place today, Labour are on course to win a historic majority of 324 seats which would be the largest ever majority in modern British politics.
Lets hope for their sake, they haven't used the Indian polling methodology....
I find it interesting that what 10 years ago we had all the "outrage" over 3-page, lad mags, grid girls, ring girls, dart walk-on girls. The Guardian etc, it was all absolute terrible stuff demeaning stuff, it had to be banned.
Now we have far more young women willing to show / do a lot more for a few quid on Only Fans. Its far worse on the other side too, as it sets up this weird para-social relationship, where horny lonely guys pay a load of money often to talk to some bloke in a messaging centre (when they think they are paying the hot girl).
A hazard of what I call feminism for posh women. Yes, smashing the glass ceiling in commerce and politics (and aiui Mexico and Finland have just joined the lady president club) was of vital importance but most women will never have those options and their lives matter too.
Talking of inconveniences I’ve just realised that no mains power in Odessa = no aircon
first world problems, eh?
Given the frequent missile, drone and clusterbomb attacks on Odessa, evidenced by the damage all around me, I’m gonna say this is a bit worse than a “first world problem”
However I suspect that was your sly intent, so fair enough! It is also very stimulating
The ultimate first world problem I have encountered was in the hotel at Montrachet. Due to the chefs tasters between courses in the 11 course menu, you lose track of whether you are on course 7 or 8.
They messed up the order of courses of the 10 course menu when I eat at Le Manoir aux Quat' Saisons. Complaints were made, freebies were given.
I was ill the last time I was there. Absolutely nothing to do with the bit at 2am the night before when someone said “I need a drink” and started ordering. After 8 hours of cocktails.
On the debate if Sunak manages to get on stage without his oddly fitting trousers falling down and doesn't faint he will have exceeded expectations which are abysmal for a man who regularly got thumped by Liz Truss in debates. It will take something truly remarkable for people not to be saying Sunak wasn't as bad as expected.
You are rather optimistic there. Sunak is truly terrible at this stuff. I am sure Starmer will come with his lawyer background, and basically prosecute the Tories for their time in government.
Starmer might well win however he is not the prosecutor here. As I’ve written before, he’s being questioned by a prosecutor as a defendant and will be having his co-accused (Sunak) arguing with him during his evidence.
It’s not quite the same as when he was prosecuting having the questions lined up he wants answered and being able to demand answers from someone who has previous for not giving specific answers in order to avoid getting into trouble.
Schulz is presumably fluent in English, but 'Bobbies'? Surprising.
And then Schulz said to me[Biden], "What would you say Mr President, if tomorrow you pick up The London Times and found out that thousands of people stormed the British Parliament, broke down the doors, killed two Bobbies to prevent the implement - the swearing in of a, of a preime minister, a choice of prime minister?" https://nitter.poast.org/pic/orig/media/GPOiavxWYAA_TDR.jpg
It's 'Peelers', 'the United Kingdom Parliament' and 'The Times'. And we don't swear in Prime Ministers, we just ...
Labour is currently estimated to be the largest party in the next parliament with 487 seats, the Conservatives second with 71 seats, followed by the Liberal Democrats with 43 seats and the SNP with 26 seats. This model currently finds Plaid on two to three seats, while there is a possibility that Reform could win three.
Well, well, well. If someone could pass the ketchup, I'll tuck into my words. (However, I'll withhold further comment until I've dug into the constituency numbers)
I find it interesting that what 10 years ago we had all the "outrage" over 3-page, lad mags, grid girls, ring girls, dart walk-on girls. The Guardian etc, it was all absolute terrible stuff demeaning stuff, it had to be banned.
Now we have far more young women willing to show / do a lot more for a few quid on Only Fans. Its far worse on the other side too, as it sets up this weird para-social relationship, where horny lonely guys pay a load of money often to talk to some bloke in a messaging centre (when they think they are paying the hot girl).
A hazard of what I call feminism for posh women. Yes, smashing the glass ceiling in commerce and politics (and aiui Mexico and Finland have just joined the lady president club) was of vital importance but most women will never have those options and their lives matter too.
There's another side to that. Whilst there have always been female (and male...) porn artists who enjoy their work, there are also many others who are forced into it, either by need for money or by coercion. In this, it is like, and allied to, prostitution.
I have no idea about what, if any, safeguarding OF put on their artists, and this lady probably does it out of choice, but I would not be surprised if there were some larger businesses behind some of the artists.
Survation's first MRP of the 2024 general election shows that if the election were to take place today, Labour are on course to win a historic majority of 324 seats which would be the largest ever majority in modern British politics.
Lets hope for their sake, they haven't used the Indian polling methodology....
And on mean votes in seats the Tories highest % would be 37% in Castle Point on a 23.5% national share. Yeah, thanks Survation, good analysis
Talking of inconveniences I’ve just realised that no mains power in Odessa = no aircon
first world problems, eh?
Given the frequent missile, drone and clusterbomb attacks on Odessa, evidenced by the damage all around me, I’m gonna say this is a bit worse than a “first world problem”
However I suspect that was your sly intent, so fair enough! It is also very stimulating
The ultimate first world problem I have encountered was in the hotel at Montrachet. Due to the chefs tasters between courses in the 11 course menu, you lose track of whether you are on course 7 or 8.
That's one of the things that annoy me most about tasting menus - amuse-bouches between every other course, some of which are as substantial as the main dishes. It's so easy to get out of sync, especially if you're looking after your own wine...
Survation's first MRP of the 2024 general election shows that if the election were to take place today, Labour are on course to win a historic majority of 324 seats which would be the largest ever majority in modern British politics.
Lets hope for their sake, they haven't used the Indian polling methodology....
The Conservatives won 469 seats in the 1931 General Election when there were only 615 MPs That was an overall majority of 323 so we are in effect looking at a reverse 1931. The opposition Labour Party won 52 so the Conservatives are doing better than that and of course it was only 14 years and a World War before Labour won their own big majority.
"The underlying data doesn't match the seat numbers. If you look at who's leading in each seat, they go:
Lab 505 C 54 L Dem 44 SNP 24 PC 2 Ref UK 0"
Yes they’ve used a probabilistic approach as outlined in their methodology, so e.g. if Reform have a 50% chance in 4 seats, they get 2 seats on the total.
"The underlying data doesn't match the seat numbers. If you look at who's leading in each seat, they go:
Lab 505 C 54 L Dem 44 SNP 24 PC 2 Ref UK 0"
Doubt is creeping under the door of my NoM prediction in a Hitchcock like manner. I don't mind, except that my only surviving prediction is that Trump wins in November, and, the horror of it, surely I'll get one right.
Survation's first MRP of the 2024 general election shows that if the election were to take place today, Labour are on course to win a historic majority of 324 seats which would be the largest ever majority in modern British politics.
Lets hope for their sake, they haven't used the Indian polling methodology....
And on mean votes in seats the Tories highest % would be 37% in Castle Point on a 23.5% national share. Yeah, thanks Survation, good analysis
Schulz is presumably fluent in English, but 'Bobbies'? Surprising.
And then Schulz said to me[Biden], "What would you say Mr President, if tomorrow you pick up The London Times and found out that thousands of people stormed the British Parliament, broke down the doors, killed two Bobbies to prevent the implement - the swearing in of a, of a preime minister, a choice of prime minister?" https://nitter.poast.org/pic/orig/media/GPOiavxWYAA_TDR.jpg
It's 'Peelers', 'the United Kingdom Parliament' and 'The Times'. And we don't swear in Prime Ministers, we just ...
swear at them.
I always say that we missed a trick with Phil the Greek. We should have given him the job of the exit interviews with departing PMs.
“All those things you wanted say, but couldn’t… go for it”
"The underlying data doesn't match the seat numbers. If you look at who's leading in each seat, they go:
Lab 505 C 54 L Dem 44 SNP 24 PC 2 Ref UK 0"
Yes they’ve used a probabilistic approach as outlined in their methodology, so e.g. if Reform have a 50% chance in 4 seats, they get 2 seats on the total.
The one thing it shows to me is that even now there are some quick wins for the Lib Dems / Labour if they work tactically
Currently it shows the tories winning both Maidenhead and Windsor but a little bit more tactical voting and Maidenhead goes Lib Dem and Windsor Labour...
It's very possible that the Tories end up with very few seats...
I'm currently in hospital with an abscess that is going to require surgery so I’m likely to be hors de combat for a few days.
RCS will be running the site for a few days.
Take your time - if it's where my wife's abscess was operated on last Friday you won't be sitting down, standing up or lying down anywhere for very long...
I find it interesting that what 10 years ago we had all the "outrage" over 3-page, lad mags, grid girls, ring girls, dart walk-on girls. The Guardian etc, it was all absolute terrible stuff demeaning stuff, it had to be banned.
Now we have far more young women willing to show / do a lot more for a few quid on Only Fans. Its far worse on the other side too, as it sets up this weird para-social relationship, where horny lonely guys pay a load of money often to talk to some bloke in a messaging centre (when they think they are paying the hot girl).
A hazard of what I call feminism for posh women. Yes, smashing the glass ceiling in commerce and politics (and aiui Mexico and Finland have just joined the lady president club) was of vital importance but most women will never have those options and their lives matter too.
There's another side to that. Whilst there have always been female (and male...) porn artists who enjoy their work, there are also many others who are forced into it, either by need for money or by coercion. In this, it is like, and allied to, prostitution.
I have no idea about what, if any, safeguarding OF put on their artists, and this lady probably does it out of choice, but I would not be surprised if there were some larger businesses behind some of the artists.
Indeed, although again we need to be careful about conflating OF models and indeed sex workers who need the money, with those who are trafficked and coerced. In the rest of the economy, we differentiate between wage slavery and actual slavery. There's not many people who would still turn up to work each morning if they stopped paying us.
I think we can safely file the Survation MRP in the bin. Not a single Labour supporter in the country thinks the election will play out like that. It is the stuff of sheer fantasy.
Whatever you think about the source, this article has some very interesting info re: state & local results.
For example:
"In Modi’s constituency, Varanasi, Congress candidate Ajay Rai appears to have significantly eaten into the prime minister’s 2019 victory margin. Modi won the seat by 500,000 votes five years ago. This time, his margin of victory was 152,000 votes.
By contrast, [Rahul] Gandhi won Rae Bareli, his constituency, by 390,000 votes."
And this:
"Most stunningly, the BJP was trailing in Faizabad constituency, which is home to the Ram temple in Ayodhya, which Modi consecrated in January. The temple – built on the ruins of the Babri Mosque, which was demolished by a Hindu mob in 1992 – was a centrepiece of the BJP’s campaign."
I think we can safely file the Survation MRP in the bin. Not a single Labour supporter in the country thinks the election will play out like that. It is the stuff of sheer fantasy.
It shows the consequences of the Tories going for a corest of core vote strategy - there isn't that many right wing core votes...
I'm currently in hospital with an abscess that is going to require surgery so I’m likely to be hors de combat for a few days.
RCS will be running the site for a few days.
Take your time - if it's where my wife's abscess was operated on last Friday you won't be sitting down, standing up or lying down anywhere for very long...
I had one of them five years ago, wouldn't wish it on Farage, can take a while to recover for sure
On the debate if Sunak manages to get on stage without his oddly fitting trousers falling down and doesn't faint he will have exceeded expectations which are abysmal for a man who regularly got thumped by Liz Truss in debates. It will take something truly remarkable for people not to be saying Sunak wasn't as bad as expected.
You are rather optimistic there. Sunak is truly terrible at this stuff. I am sure Starmer will come with his lawyer background, and basically prosecute the Tories for their time in government.
Starmer might well win however he is not the prosecutor here. As I’ve written before, he’s being questioned by a prosecutor as a defendant and will be having his co-accused (Sunak) arguing with him during his evidence.
It’s not quite the same as when he was prosecuting having the questions lined up he wants answered and being able to demand answers from someone who has previous for not giving specific answers in order to avoid getting into trouble.
Rishi will win. He will simply say "I have a plan and that plan is working, you ( Starmer) have no plan and will take us back to square one". He will repeat this over and over again. He will pepper this with nuggets like Labour's plans don't add up, they have a $38b black hole. He will say the World is a dangerous place and Sleepy Keir is not up to the job because he supports Jeremy Corbyn and defended Hamas and Hezbollah in court His trump card is Labour don't support the Rwanda plan which means that Labour will let immigration run out of control.
Starmer will be so shocked by the sauce of Sunak's front that he will lose the faculty of speech
I think we can safely file the Survation MRP in the bin. Not a single Labour supporter in the country thinks the election will play out like that. It is the stuff of sheer fantasy.
If Labour/LibDems win every seat in Norfolk I'll be amazed.
"The underlying data doesn't match the seat numbers. If you look at who's leading in each seat, they go:
Lab 505 C 54 L Dem 44 SNP 24 PC 2 Ref UK 0"
Yes they’ve used a probabilistic approach as outlined in their methodology, so e.g. if Reform have a 50% chance in 4 seats, they get 2 seats on the total.
The one thing it shows to me is that even now there are some quick wins for the Lib Dems / Labour if they work tactically
Currently it shows the tories winning both Maidenhead and Windsor but a little bit more tactical voting and Maidenhead goes Lib Dem and Windsor Labour...
It's very possible that the Tories end up with very few seats...
And by definition, MRP can't pick up that constituency-level effect; nothing going into it measures how much campaigning is going on where.
Though if that is the electoral front line, it's a nice question what activists are available to promote a tactical message.
"The underlying data doesn't match the seat numbers. If you look at who's leading in each seat, they go:
Lab 505 C 54 L Dem 44 SNP 24 PC 2 Ref UK 0"
Doubt is creeping under the door of my NoM prediction in a Hitchcock like manner. I don't mind, except that my only surviving prediction is that Trump wins in November, and, the horror of it, surely I'll get one right.
I’m sticking with my prediction of NOM and the Tory/Labour 2010 totals reversed right up until the Exit Poll. I shall then claim the result is what I expected all along.
Talking of inconveniences I’ve just realised that no mains power in Odessa = no aircon
first world problems, eh?
Given the frequent missile, drone and clusterbomb attacks on Odessa, evidenced by the damage all around me, I’m gonna say this is a bit worse than a “first world problem”
However I suspect that was your sly intent, so fair enough! It is also very stimulating
The ultimate first world problem I have encountered was in the hotel at Montrachet. Due to the chefs tasters between courses in the 11 course menu, you lose track of whether you are on course 7 or 8.
That's one of the things that annoy me most about tasting menus - amuse-bouches between every other course, some of which are as substantial as the main dishes. It's so easy to get out of sync, especially if you're looking after your own wine...
There are two simple solutions.
1) Go with the recommended glass of wine per course. The waiters can sort it out. 2) Drink Premier Cru* Chablis all the way through.
Tried both. Not sure which is better.
*quite often the Grand Cru is actually less good than the best Premier Cru from the same vineyard.
I don’t think I’ve ever been so confused by polling in a GE before lol.
One of the many reasons why those who think this election is dull are wrong. It's fascinating and absorbing; and while they are keeping this very secret, in the very long run it's even about issues, policies and ideological direction. Psephologically it is an all time classic; politically it is the most interesting election since 1945/1979 (take your pick).
Survation's numbers look a bit dodgy - zero TV weighting applied by the looks of it. I do not believe all three major parties are going to end up in a 2.5% spread in Maidenhead.
I think we can safely file the Survation MRP in the bin. Not a single Labour supporter in the country thinks the election will play out like that. It is the stuff of sheer fantasy.
It shows the consequences of the Tories going for a corest of core vote strategy - there isn't that many right wing core votes...
Open-door immigration is hardly a core right-wing strategy. They have pissed off every single part of their voting coalition at the same time. Impressive stuff.
"The underlying data doesn't match the seat numbers. If you look at who's leading in each seat, they go:
Lab 505 C 54 L Dem 44 SNP 24 PC 2 Ref UK 0"
Doubt is creeping under the door of my NoM prediction in a Hitchcock like manner. I don't mind, except that my only surviving prediction is that Trump wins in November, and, the horror of it, surely I'll get one right.
I’m sticking with my prediction of NOM and the Tory/Labour 2010 totals reversed right up until the Exit Poll. I shall then claim the result is what I expected all along.
Survation's first MRP of the 2024 general election shows that if the election were to take place today, Labour are on course to win a historic majority of 324 seats which would be the largest ever majority in modern British politics.
Lets hope for their sake, they haven't used the Indian polling methodology....
And on mean votes in seats the Tories highest % would be 37% in Castle Point on a 23.5% national share. Yeah, thanks Survation, good analysis
I'm wrong! They get 38% in Orpington
New Orpington Man? (Of whatever preferred pronoun!)
Aberdeenshire North Dumfries Dumfriesshire Berwickshire Richmond & Northallerton (Rishi wins by 3.3%) Skipton Thisk Gainsborough Sleaford Boston Rutland Lichfield (Micky Fab holds on by 0.1%) Kingswinford & South Staffs North Shropshire (despite LD win in by-election) South Shropshire North Herefordshire Stratford Banbury Hitchin NW Essex (Kemi Badenoch wins by 2.3%) Maldon Brentwood Hornchurch Castle Point (by 1.1%) North Devon Tiverton Mid Dorset (despite being a LD seat between 2001 and 2015) North Dorset Salisbury Christchurch New Forest E New Forest W NE Hampshire NW Hampshire East Hampshire Hamble Valley Fareham Chippenham (despite being a LD seat recently) Melksham Aldershot Farnham Arundel Sussex Weald Tonbridge Sevenoaks East Surrey Surrey Heath (despite LDs hoping to win Gove's former seat) Maidenhead Beaconsfield Mid Bucks Ruislip (by 1%) Orpington
I think we can safely file the Survation MRP in the bin. Not a single Labour supporter in the country thinks the election will play out like that. It is the stuff of sheer fantasy.
It's based on the biggest survey of the campaign so far.
I mean, yes, it goes against our expectations from previous elections - but unless you can point to a flaw in their methodology, it would be unwise to dismiss it altogether.
I think we can safely file the Survation MRP in the bin. Not a single Labour supporter in the country thinks the election will play out like that. It is the stuff of sheer fantasy.
Just because you don't believe something can happen doesn't mean it can't. With leads of 17-25 points, we are in uncharted territory in modern times in terms of an election.
The Conservatives won by 15 in 1983 and got a majority of 144 but Labour have always had a stronger number of core seats which they would retain under almost all circumstances so 209 in 1983, 202 in 2019.
The Conservative low point of 165 was reached on a poll score of nearly 31% - currently they are polling at 25% so lower than 165 looks a good call but how much lower? That's where tactical voting comes in - nearly a third of Labour voters would vote tactically as would more than a third of LDs - the first number is significant as that will boost the LDs from 25-30 to 40-50.
The numbers currently suggest a result more akin to 1931 and as most of us weren't around for that it's outside our experience.
I don’t think I’ve ever been so confused by polling in a GE before lol.
1. The polling is pretty consistent, really: 30 polls since the GE called, Labour's lead ranges from 12 (lowest) to 27 (highest), with an average of around 21.
2. So any confusion is limited to whether Labour get nearer to 400 or 500 seats.
I think we can safely file the Survation MRP in the bin. Not a single Labour supporter in the country thinks the election will play out like that. It is the stuff of sheer fantasy.
If I were a Tory candidate/member/worker/agent etc I would be thinking that this really could happen. There is a solid evidence base for a chance of a major wipe out.
There is a decent argument for the number of Tory seats being anything from about 35 (over 90% lost) to about 270. This is bizarre.
I think we can safely file the Survation MRP in the bin. Not a single Labour supporter in the country thinks the election will play out like that. It is the stuff of sheer fantasy.
It's based on the biggest survey of the campaign so far.
I mean, yes, it goes against our expectations from previous elections - but unless you can point to a flaw in their methodology, it would be unwise to dismiss it altogether.
The obvious flaw is that there's no tactical voting squeeze - hence lots of Tory & SNP holds on low 30s. However this would make the results more extreme, not less.
Talking of inconveniences I’ve just realised that no mains power in Odessa = no aircon
first world problems, eh?
Given the frequent missile, drone and clusterbomb attacks on Odessa, evidenced by the damage all around me, I’m gonna say this is a bit worse than a “first world problem”
However I suspect that was your sly intent, so fair enough! It is also very stimulating
The ultimate first world problem I have encountered was in the hotel at Montrachet. Due to the chefs tasters between courses in the 11 course menu, you lose track of whether you are on course 7 or 8.
I can report that the seaplanes between Maldivian 5 star hotels can get a bit hot. I once flew in 6 in 10 days and got mildly peeved by the end
“Of FFS ANOTHER seaplane?? Where’s this one going? The Four Seasons? Bollocks to that”
B careful who you vote 4. Labour are going to tax the bollocks off everyone. If you hear Starmer speak, you know he lying. He will do or say anything just like Blair did. Get your Isa sorted now. Get as much as you can afford into a pension. Get your dividend income into an isa. There is a tax storm coming. You heard it on here.
I say again... be careful of your vote. What seems attractive now isn't going to be.. 2 yrs hence. .
I hope you're right. The country needs more spent on public services, defence, health... and it would be pretty useful to pay down some of the government debt to reduce interest payments (currently 3.2% GDP). Tax increases are the only answer, and they are coming whether you like it or not, whichever party is in government.
"The underlying data doesn't match the seat numbers. If you look at who's leading in each seat, they go:
Lab 505 C 54 L Dem 44 SNP 24 PC 2 Ref UK 0"
That's because they calculate the seat numbers with probabilities, which is a superior approach. If their model predicted ten seats with Labour on 40 and the Tories on 35, the chances are that the Tories will win one or two of them, because the estimate of support for each party is uncertain, and so random chance within the error range will probably put the Tories ahead once or twice out of the ten.
Just looking at the central estimate, and assigning seats that way, is a comparatively crude approach.
I think we can safely file the Survation MRP in the bin. Not a single Labour supporter in the country thinks the election will play out like that. It is the stuff of sheer fantasy.
If I were a Tory candidate/member/worker/agent etc I would be thinking that this really could happen. There is a solid evidence base for a chance of a major wipe out.
There is a decent argument for the number of Tory seats being anything from about 35 (over 90% lost) to about 270. This is bizarre.
I don’t think I’ve ever been so confused by polling in a GE before lol.
One of the many reasons why those who think this election is dull are wrong. It's fascinating and absorbing; and while they are keeping this very secret, in the very long run it's even about issues, policies and ideological direction. Psephologically it is an all time classic; politically it is the most interesting election since 1945/1979 (take your pick).
I know what you mean, but there is something unsatisfyingly nebulous about it.
Partly because the headline outcome is in so little doubt. Labour are set to win, so nothing the Conservatives say actually matters and there's little reason for Labour to say much at all.
The size of the Conservative defeat is interesting (and even if they fall to 300, let alone 250, that's still a terrible come-down). But the polls imply something so big that it doesn't feel real. Not yet, anyway.
Still, one month and eighty minutes until we find out.
I think we can safely file the Survation MRP in the bin. Not a single Labour supporter in the country thinks the election will play out like that. It is the stuff of sheer fantasy.
I think we can safely file the Survation MRP in the bin. Not a single Labour supporter in the country thinks the election will play out like that. It is the stuff of sheer fantasy.
If Labour/LibDems win every seat in Norfolk I'll be amazed.
You and me both. They win none outside Norwich with MiC and its only a 5% difference in vote lead.
Looking at it I am a little confused by many of the results and just how they got there. Also Reform win 3 despite not being the largest party in any single constituency. Now I may be being a dullard here but...
The first UK-Elect forecast of this campaign has been published on the UK-Elect website ( www.ukelect.co.uk ). It is based on the national and regional opinion poll averages and shows a Labour majority of "only" 154. (Lab 401, Con 178, LD 31, SNP 16). https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240604ForecastUK.html
. . . meanwhile back at the ranch . . . primaries today in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota and District of Columbia.
In the great Garden State, NJ voters will be nominating party nominees for US Senate. Where traditional ballot advantage of candidates endorsed by party machines has been eliminated due to recent court ruling.
My guess is that current Congressman Andy Kim will win the US Senate nomination.
NOTE that disgraced and likely soon-to-be convicted felon, once-Democratic US Sen. Bob Menendez, has announced (during his trial) that he will run as an Independent to retain his seat this fall.
No idea IF this may be derailed - or not - IF he's convicted. My guess is that he probably can, as long as his case is under appeal.
The implied national vote share from the MRP model placed Labour on 43.2%, Conservatives on 24.3%, Lib Dems on 10.4%, Reform on 11.4% and the Green Party on 4.2%. The SNP would receive 3.3% of the vote, and Plaid 0.6% while other parties would receive a combined vote share of 2.6%.
Note that the Savanta MRP poll has very different vote shares to the "normal" Savanta poll out tonight which is:
I think we can safely file the Survation MRP in the bin. Not a single Labour supporter in the country thinks the election will play out like that. It is the stuff of sheer fantasy.
It's based on the biggest survey of the campaign so far.
I mean, yes, it goes against our expectations from previous elections - but unless you can point to a flaw in their methodology, it would be unwise to dismiss it altogether.
The implied national vote share from the MRP model placed Labour on 43.2%, Conservatives on 24.3%, Lib Dems on 10.4%, Reform on 11.4% and the Green Party on 4.2%. The SNP would receive 3.3% of the vote, and Plaid 0.6% while other parties would receive a combined vote share of 2.6%.
Note that the Savanta MRP poll has very different vote shares to the "normal" Savanta poll out tonight which is:
Whilst Survaton and yougov are on the same lines - they are in some ways very different. Taking one example yougov predict the Greens will win in Brighton and Bristol Central. Survaton predicts Labour will hammer them in both constituencies. They must use very different methods to have such different results
Whilst Survaton and yougov are on the same lines - they are in some ways very different. Taking one example yougov predict the Greens will win in Brighton and Bristol Central. Survaton predicts Labour will hammer them in both constituencies. They must use very different methods to have such different results
I'm sticking with YouGov for betting purposes as they have a good track record.
Evening everyone. Certain poll companies are coming out with polls that have the intention of scaring Tory voters to come out and vote for their party. In reality the Tories will end up with 150 to 200 seats. From now to election night we will have to endure being told the party will get 60 to 80 seats etc. This is pure fantasy. No matter how unpopluar they are it will not happen.There may be people on here who believe this is the case or they say on their posts that they agree with these polls. However I doubt anyone is prepared to put their money where their mouth is and lay a bet down on this outcome even if they argue in favour of it on here. Most of us know this is not going to happen. Time will tell and we will soon have the election results thank goddness!
The first UK-Elect forecast of this campaign has been published on the UK-Elect website ( www.ukelect.co.uk ). It is based on the national and regional opinion poll averages and shows a Labour majority of "only" 154. (Lab 401, Con 178, LD 31, SNP 16). https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240604ForecastUK.html
Plausible, and the Tories would breathe a sigh of relief.
Aberdeenshire North Dumfries Dumfriesshire Berwickshire Richmond & Northallerton (Rishi wins by 3.3%) Skipton Thisk Gainsborough Sleaford Boston Rutland Lichfield (Micky Fab holds on by 0.1%) Kingswinford & South Staffs North Shropshire (despite LD win in by-election) South Shropshire North Herefordshire Stratford Banbury Hitchin NW Essex (Kemi Badenoch wins by 2.3%) Maldon Brentwood Hornchurch Castle Point (by 1.1%) North Devon Tiverton Mid Dorset (despite being a LD seat between 2001 and 2015) North Dorset Salisbury Christchurch New Forest E New Forest W NE Hampshire NW Hampshire East Hampshire Hamble Valley Fareham Chippenham (despite being a LD seat recently) Melksham Aldershot Farnham Arundel Sussex Weald Tonbridge Sevenoaks East Surrey Surrey Heath (despite LDs hoping to win Gove's former seat) Maidenhead Beaconsfield Mid Bucks Ruislip (by 1%) Orpington
Chippenham was a LD seat 9 years ago so not that recently, and the new Chippenham Constituency is made up of only around 50% of the old Chippenham constituency.
The new seat loses the areas to the south around Bradford-on-Avon and Melksham, where the LDs are quite strong historically, in favour of rural areas that were in the old North Wiltshire seat.
Evening everyone. Certain poll companies are coming out with polls that have the intention of scaring Tory voters to come out and vote for their party. In reality the Tories will end up with 150 to 200 seats. From now to election night we will have to endure being told the party will get 60 to 80 seats etc. This is pure fantasy. No matter how unpopluar they are it will not happen.There may be people on here who believe this is the case or they say on their posts that they agree with these polls. However I doubt anyone is prepared to put their money where their mouth is and lay a bet down on this outcome even if they argue in favour of it on here. Most of us know this is not going to happen. Time will tell and we will soon have the election results thank goddness!
No. The poll companies are not 'coming out with polls that have the intention of scaring Tory voters to come out and vote for their party'.
The polls may prove to be right or they may prove to be wrong but there is no intent to influence voting among any of the polling companies quoted on here.
I think we can safely file the Survation MRP in the bin. Not a single Labour supporter in the country thinks the election will play out like that. It is the stuff of sheer fantasy.
The current most favourable poll for the Tories, the Savanta, which has them 14pp behind, when Baxtered gives them only 171 seats.
The most favourable MRP for the Tories, More In Common, gives them 180 seats.
In both cases it's a loss of nearly 200 seats. Even the most favourable polls are fantastical, so why should the Tories not lose another 100 seats?
Such a fantastical result would be a fitting end to a Parliament that saw the Tories inflict the dark fantasy of Truss as PM on the country.
Evening everyone. Certain poll companies are coming out with polls that have the intention of scaring Tory voters to come out and vote for their party. In reality the Tories will end up with 150 to 200 seats. From now to election night we will have to endure being told the party will get 60 to 80 seats etc. This is pure fantasy. No matter how unpopluar they are it will not happen.There may be people on here who believe this is the case or they say on their posts that they agree with these polls. However I doubt anyone is prepared to put their money where their mouth is and lay a bet down on this outcome even if they argue in favour of it on here. Most of us know this is not going to happen. Time will tell and we will soon have the election results thank goddness!
No. The poll companies are not 'coming out with polls that have the intention of scaring Tory voters to come out and vote for their party'.
The polls may prove to be right or they may prove to be wrong but there is no intent to influence voting among any of the polling companies quoted on here.
Talking of inconveniences I’ve just realised that no mains power in Odessa = no aircon
first world problems, eh?
Given the frequent missile, drone and clusterbomb attacks on Odessa, evidenced by the damage all around me, I’m gonna say this is a bit worse than a “first world problem”
However I suspect that was your sly intent, so fair enough! It is also very stimulating
The ultimate first world problem I have encountered was in the hotel at Montrachet. Due to the chefs tasters between courses in the 11 course menu, you lose track of whether you are on course 7 or 8.
That's one of the things that annoy me most about tasting menus - amuse-bouches between every other course, some of which are as substantial as the main dishes. It's so easy to get out of sync, especially if you're looking after your own wine...
There are two simple solutions.
1) Go with the recommended glass of wine per course. The waiters can sort it out. 2) Drink Premier Cru* Chablis all the way through.
Tried both. Not sure which is better.
*quite often the Grand Cru is actually less good than the best Premier Cru from the same vineyard.
Better still, have a proper plate of scran and a pint of good ale.
Evening everyone. Certain poll companies are coming out with polls that have the intention of scaring Tory voters to come out and vote for their party. In reality the Tories will end up with 150 to 200 seats. From now to election night we will have to endure being told the party will get 60 to 80 seats etc. This is pure fantasy. No matter how unpopluar they are it will not happen.There may be people on here who believe this is the case or they say on their posts that they agree with these polls. However I doubt anyone is prepared to put their money where their mouth is and lay a bet down on this outcome even if they argue in favour of it on here. Most of us know this is not going to happen. Time will tell and we will soon have the election results thank goddness!
If the idea is to motivate Con voters then this could have been planned at No 10 it is so stupid! Polls like this basically motivate Con voters to sit the election out or flirt with that handsome chap Nigel. Now if they were planned to demotivate Lab voters then that would make a lot more sense.
I'm with you on 150-200 though 200 would be a disaster for them in normal circumstances and I think it will be much nearer to 150 That is all-time historically bad but might after some of these polls be sold as 'creditable'. Maybe that might be the thinking if you want to believe in a polling conspiracy
Evening everyone. Certain poll companies are coming out with polls that have the intention of scaring Tory voters to come out and vote for their party. In reality the Tories will end up with 150 to 200 seats. From now to election night we will have to endure being told the party will get 60 to 80 seats etc. This is pure fantasy. No matter how unpopluar they are it will not happen.There may be people on here who believe this is the case or they say on their posts that they agree with these polls. However I doubt anyone is prepared to put their money where their mouth is and lay a bet down on this outcome even if they argue in favour of it on here. Most of us know this is not going to happen. Time will tell and we will soon have the election results thank goddness!
Well, it's good to be told by an expert. Now I know that the Tories will definitely get 150-200 seats, I can stake my house on it.
The implied national vote share from the MRP model placed Labour on 43.2%, Conservatives on 24.3%, Lib Dems on 10.4%, Reform on 11.4% and the Green Party on 4.2%. The SNP would receive 3.3% of the vote, and Plaid 0.6% while other parties would receive a combined vote share of 2.6%.
Note that the Savanta MRP poll has very different vote shares to the "normal" Savanta poll out tonight which is:
The first UK-Elect forecast of this campaign has been published on the UK-Elect website ( www.ukelect.co.uk ). It is based on the national and regional opinion poll averages and shows a Labour majority of "only" 154. (Lab 401, Con 178, LD 31, SNP 16). https://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts/20240604ForecastUK.html
Plausible, and the Tories would breathe a sigh of relief.
There are a lot of very close seats, however, and it is very easy to slightly adjust the algorithm, (or to perhaps use summed win probabilities rather than first place in each constituency) and "achieve" a Labour majority 20+ greater.
Evening everyone. Certain poll companies are coming out with polls that have the intention of scaring Tory voters to come out and vote for their party. In reality the Tories will end up with 150 to 200 seats. From now to election night we will have to endure being told the party will get 60 to 80 seats etc. This is pure fantasy. No matter how unpopluar they are it will not happen.There may be people on here who believe this is the case or they say on their posts that they agree with these polls. However I doubt anyone is prepared to put their money where their mouth is and lay a bet down on this outcome even if they argue in favour of it on here. Most of us know this is not going to happen. Time will tell and we will soon have the election results thank goddness!
I don't think any of the polling companies are deliberately acting for the Tories - that would kill their reputation much more surely than any number of duff polls!
(I'm on the 50-99 Tory seats band on Betfair, currently available at 2/1. I still intend to lay off at some stage, but on the basis of this poll perhaps not quite yet...)
The implied national vote share from the MRP model placed Labour on 43.2%, Conservatives on 24.3%, Lib Dems on 10.4%, Reform on 11.4% and the Green Party on 4.2%. The SNP would receive 3.3% of the vote, and Plaid 0.6% while other parties would receive a combined vote share of 2.6%.
Note that the Savanta MRP poll has very different vote shares to the "normal" Savanta poll out tonight which is:
"The underlying data doesn't match the seat numbers. If you look at who's leading in each seat, they go:
Lab 505 C 54 L Dem 44 SNP 24 PC 2 Ref UK 0"
Yes they’ve used a probabilistic approach as outlined in their methodology, so e.g. if Reform have a 50% chance in 4 seats, they get 2 seats on the total.
Hmmm... But the probabilities are linked, so if they have enough votes to win one of the four, then they probably have enough to win others.
I don’t get the kind of thinking that is saying “The Tories will get 150+ seats minimum simply because that is what always happens”
Everything is ‘as it always was’…until it isn’t.
The underlying circumstances are very different this time compared with previous elections.
That doesn’t mean Labour will win 450+ seats by any means, but you can’t simply look at results that ‘feel’ more realistic and claim that they are simply because they are closer to previous seat totals.
Comments
but - if only!
A plane crashes on the border of Ukraine and the Republic of China. Which side do you bury the survivors?
Lets hope for their sake, they haven't used the Indian polling methodology....
No sir.
It’s not quite the same as when he was prosecuting having the questions lined up he wants answered and being able to demand answers from someone who has previous for not giving specific answers in order to avoid getting into trouble.
If someone could pass the ketchup, I'll tuck into my words.
(However, I'll withhold further comment until I've dug into the constituency numbers)
I have no idea about what, if any, safeguarding OF put on their artists, and this lady probably does it out of choice, but I would not be surprised if there were some larger businesses behind some of the artists.
Yeah, thanks Survation, good analysis
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/1244/survation?page=85
"The underlying data doesn't match the seat numbers. If you look at who's leading in each seat, they go:
Lab 505
C 54
L Dem 44
SNP 24
PC 2
Ref UK 0"
Robert is a tech early adopter. He'll be one of the first to implement the Vanilla Pre-crime module.
No historical parallels there hopefully.
“All those things you wanted say, but couldn’t… go for it”
Really bad news for the Tories, either way.
Edited to add: oh, no, it's the probabilistic thing as explained in other posts. Still bad news for the Tories, though!
Currently it shows the tories winning both Maidenhead and Windsor but a little bit more tactical voting and Maidenhead goes Lib Dem and Windsor Labour...
It's very possible that the Tories end up with very few seats...
Take your time - if it's where my wife's abscess was operated on last Friday you won't be sitting down, standing up or lying down anywhere for very long...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/4/india-election-results-big-wins-losses-and-surprises
Whatever you think about the source, this article has some very interesting info re: state & local results.
For example:
"In Modi’s constituency, Varanasi, Congress candidate Ajay Rai appears to have significantly eaten into the prime minister’s 2019 victory margin. Modi won the seat by 500,000 votes five years ago. This time, his margin of victory was 152,000 votes.
By contrast, [Rahul] Gandhi won Rae Bareli, his constituency, by 390,000 votes."
And this:
"Most stunningly, the BJP was trailing in Faizabad constituency, which is home to the Ram temple in Ayodhya, which Modi consecrated in January. The temple – built on the ruins of the Babri Mosque, which was demolished by a Hindu mob in 1992 – was a centrepiece of the BJP’s campaign."
Starmer will be so shocked by the sauce of Sunak's front that he will lose the faculty of speech
Though if that is the electoral front line, it's a nice question what activists are available to promote a tactical message.
1) Go with the recommended glass of wine per course. The waiters can sort it out.
2) Drink Premier Cru* Chablis all the way through.
Tried both. Not sure which is better.
*quite often the Grand Cru is actually less good than the best Premier Cru from the same vineyard.
Aberdeenshire North
Dumfries
Dumfriesshire
Berwickshire
Richmond & Northallerton (Rishi wins by 3.3%)
Skipton
Thisk
Gainsborough
Sleaford
Boston
Rutland
Lichfield (Micky Fab holds on by 0.1%)
Kingswinford & South Staffs
North Shropshire (despite LD win in by-election)
South Shropshire
North Herefordshire
Stratford
Banbury
Hitchin
NW Essex (Kemi Badenoch wins by 2.3%)
Maldon
Brentwood
Hornchurch
Castle Point (by 1.1%)
North Devon
Tiverton
Mid Dorset (despite being a LD seat between 2001 and 2015)
North Dorset
Salisbury
Christchurch
New Forest E
New Forest W
NE Hampshire
NW Hampshire
East Hampshire
Hamble Valley
Fareham
Chippenham (despite being a LD seat recently)
Melksham
Aldershot
Farnham
Arundel
Sussex Weald
Tonbridge
Sevenoaks
East Surrey
Surrey Heath (despite LDs hoping to win Gove's former seat)
Maidenhead
Beaconsfield
Mid Bucks
Ruislip (by 1%)
Orpington
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/04/politics/video/john-rose-tennessee-speech-son-ldn-digvid
I mean, yes, it goes against our expectations from previous elections - but unless you can point to a flaw in their methodology, it would be unwise to dismiss it altogether.
The Conservatives won by 15 in 1983 and got a majority of 144 but Labour have always had a stronger number of core seats which they would retain under almost all circumstances so 209 in 1983, 202 in 2019.
The Conservative low point of 165 was reached on a poll score of nearly 31% - currently they are polling at 25% so lower than 165 looks a good call but how much lower? That's where tactical voting comes in - nearly a third of Labour voters would vote tactically as would more than a third of LDs - the first number is significant as that will boost the LDs from 25-30 to 40-50.
The numbers currently suggest a result more akin to 1931 and as most of us weren't around for that it's outside our experience.
2. So any confusion is limited to whether Labour get nearer to 400 or 500 seats.
There is a decent argument for the number of Tory seats being anything from about 35 (over 90% lost) to about 270. This is bizarre.
“Of FFS ANOTHER seaplane?? Where’s this one going? The Four Seasons? Bollocks to that”
Etc
Just looking at the central estimate, and assigning seats that way, is a comparatively crude approach.
OK, FPTP is bizarre.
Best wishes!
Partly because the headline outcome is in so little doubt. Labour are set to win, so nothing the Conservatives say actually matters and there's little reason for Labour to say much at all.
The size of the Conservative defeat is interesting (and even if they fall to 300, let alone 250, that's still a terrible come-down). But the polls imply something so big that it doesn't feel real. Not yet, anyway.
Still, one month and eighty minutes until we find out.
It's good to see a figure of such great scientific stature coming out against vaccines.
Looking at it I am a little confused by many of the results and just how they got there. Also Reform win 3 despite not being the largest party in any single constituency. Now I may be being a dullard here but...
Odessa is HOT and humid in the summer
In the great Garden State, NJ voters will be nominating party nominees for US Senate. Where traditional ballot advantage of candidates endorsed by party machines has been eliminated due to recent court ruling.
My guess is that current Congressman Andy Kim will win the US Senate nomination.
NOTE that disgraced and likely soon-to-be convicted felon, once-Democratic US Sen. Bob Menendez, has announced (during his trial) that he will run as an Independent to retain his seat this fall.
No idea IF this may be derailed - or not - IF he's convicted. My guess is that he probably can, as long as his case is under appeal.
Lab 42, Con 28, LD 9, Ref 9, Green 4, SNP 3
https://x.com/ThebestFigen/status/1793865759833067883
The new seat loses the areas to the south around Bradford-on-Avon and Melksham, where the LDs are quite strong historically, in favour of rural areas that were in the old North Wiltshire seat.
The polls may prove to be right or they may prove to be wrong but there is no intent to influence voting among any of the polling companies quoted on here.
The most favourable MRP for the Tories, More In Common, gives them 180 seats.
In both cases it's a loss of nearly 200 seats. Even the most favourable polls are fantastical, so why should the Tories not lose another 100 seats?
Such a fantastical result would be a fitting end to a Parliament that saw the Tories inflict the dark fantasy of Truss as PM on the country.
I'm with you on 150-200 though 200 would be a disaster for them in normal circumstances and I think it will be much nearer to 150 That is all-time historically bad but might after some of these polls be sold as 'creditable'. Maybe that might be the thinking if you want to believe in a polling conspiracy
(I'm on the 50-99 Tory seats band on Betfair, currently available at 2/1. I still intend to lay off at some stage, but on the basis of this poll perhaps not quite yet...)
Get well soon Mr Eagles.
Everything is ‘as it always was’…until it isn’t.
The underlying circumstances are very different this time compared with previous elections.
That doesn’t mean Labour will win 450+ seats by any means, but you can’t simply look at results that ‘feel’ more realistic and claim that they are simply because they are closer to previous seat totals.