One thing that looks a bit strange with the YouGov MRP is the vote shares in Scotland (and the resultant seat scores in Scotland, I assume).
The averages of the three polls in Scotland since the election announcement have been:
Con 17, Lab 36, LD 8.7, SNP 36
The average scores in the constituencies in Scotland in the YouGov has: Con 11.3, Lab 34.1, LD 5.3, SNP 32.7, Others 16.6 (7.1% Green, 4.1% Reform, 5.5% Other Others (Alba?))
Of course, as constituencies aren't identical sizes, the average of constituencies won't be the same as the average across Scotland, but it won't be far off at all.
This looks to boost Lab and SNP at the expense of Con and LD.
A very very quick and dirty UNS-applied thumb on the scales of each Scottish constituency adjusting the averages in Scotland to the Scottish polling averages (which is a bit dodgy, anyway, but gives at least an indication of the sort of thing in question) gives:
2 seats from SNP to LDs 3 seats from SNP to Cons 4 seats from Lab to SNP 1 seat from SNP-tossup with Lab to 3-way tossup (SNP/Lab/LD): Mid Dunbartonshire, with all three below 24% 1 seat from Labour-tossup with SNP to 3-way tossup (SNP/Lab/Con)
I said earlier this was great news for the LibDems:
Tories have been tacking hard right to see off RefUK. Thought they had caught the Nigel on the hop. Tory campaign heavily set in winning over Fukkers and wayward Tories. Forget your common or garden Tory, and especially forget your 2019 first time red wall Tory, this is hang em and flog em only. Various mad policy announcements have gone down like a bucke of warm sick - National Service a prime example. Despite this that Tory chasm remains gargantuan. It isn't working Now The Nigel (for it is He) comes back. On a mission to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Sunak in a mad panic will now try and tack even harder to the right to see him off. The madder the Tories get, the harder they lose. They can't out fUK RefUK, and in trying they lose even more of middle England.
And this is why the Nigel is manna from heaven for the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will unveil ever madder and more repugnant policies over the remaining month, and that just lets us pick up more seats.
"us"?
I take it you're back in the Lib Dems then? I thought you had left them. Sorry if you've already discussed this, not been on here much lately.
PS I agree with your logic entirely. Sunak is ensuring I'll vote for either the Lib Dems or Labour rather than the Tories.
The Lib Dems are going to get far more seats than the Fukkers.
Rochdale is the lib dem candidate in my seat
Wow I have missed news here then.
Good look @RochdalePioneers - we don't always agree on things, but I know you have your heart in the right place and think you'd be a good addition to Parliament.
I imagine he would. However, I'm not convinced he is anticipating victory.
As things stand, it's looking like 4th out of 4. No idea whether new candidates are incoming or not.
I've always said I'm voting against the Tories in the next election, which for the longest time looked like a nailed on SNP vote from me. But things are a little more exciting now. The FindOutNow MRP has it as SNP 31% Labour 24% Conservative 23% Green 8% Lib Dem 5% Other 9%
So Labour are very much in play again. But the Green and Other (Alba?) are interesting. Quite high numbers but no sign of any candidates yet. I still see the SNP as the best bet for unseating Duguid (and I hope he's recovering well from his health scare), but we've got weeks to go yet so no need to rush to a decision yet.
I mean Labour lost their deposit in Banff in 2019 and haven't got above 14% in B and B since 1983, they ain't getting second there even withany boundary changes
I'm amazed to see them riding so high in that poll, but it strikes me as within the realms of possibility. I suspect that their ground game is non-existent here, though, which makes getting out the vote a tough prospect. The SNP and Conservatives have a presence here and have been out campaigning, which is part of the reason I'm still reasonably sure it's between the two of them. But there's ages to go. Anything could happen. When nominations close, there'll at least be clarity on the who's on the table. I'm not quite sure which way "Green" VI will break. It won't all go SNP for sure.
Well as you say we will see but if Labour got 15% there I'd fancy them to be close to 450 seats nationally. It's just not Labour territory. Never has been in the last 50 years. It would be like them running Newbury close
Farage talking about Labour already having won the election is obviously an attempt to depress turnout with Labour voters. Might work.
Eh, it's possible a little. But they appear to be a long way ahead, and there's the possibility a lot of former Tory voters are just going to stay home, depressing turnout even more significantly than casual Labour voters not bothering because they are going to win. And might they do so more in super safe Labour seats, just making their vote more efficient?
If you were Farage would you want to win in Clacton?
South Thanet 2015 was a perfect result for him, close loss, he could argue that he would have won if the Tory machine hadn't cheated. But if he gets elected, then he'll be stuck at Westminster in the most depressing of positions, an opposition backbencher, he'll have to do constituency surgeries, actually handle people's problems. That doesn't sound like Farage stuff to me.
I don't know. He might rather like it. Giving his oath of allegiance to the monarch. Being allowed to bad-mouth all the other politicians from the green benches - he enjoyed doing that whenever he showed up to the EU Parliament. Having access by right to the bars, etc. The history and pomp and ceremony. The thought that so many people (and other MPs) hated him being there, and just being there was two fingers up to them all.
He doesn't have to show up all the time. He gets to employ staff to help with the constituency work.
I could easily see him loving it.
And if they won more than one seat, he'd qualify for a guaranteed question at PMQs every four or five weeks as leader of a minor party. It would smooth his path into the Lords at the end of the next parliament too, so he wouldn't have to bother running for re-election...
Is Lee Anderson perfectly positioned to broker a Farage Truss dream ticket after the election?
Surely a defeat of Sunak vindicates everything she stood for. 🤪
No
If Sunak goes down, he will take certain strands of Conservative thought with him. Expect Truss to claim that she was right. As an acolyte of Trump she and Farage are natural allies.
Truss can claim whatever she wants, but history will show that she handed Labour the biggest election gift ever in politics and should join Farage in Reform (though I expect him to lose and be on a plane to the US on the 5th July)
Sunak is worse than Truss.
Even Truss wasn't mad enough to talk about National Service.
Nobody in history has been worse for the conservative party than Truss and that includes Johnson
Rishi Sunak calling an early election and running on a platform of bringing back National Service nearly seventy years after it was rightly abolished is even worse than both Truss and Johnson.
A true right wing leader, Ronald Reagan, famously had a slogan that "the buck stops here" - well the buck stops here for Sunak too and this is his defeat when it happens.
I said earlier this was great news for the LibDems:
Tories have been tacking hard right to see off RefUK. Thought they had caught the Nigel on the hop. Tory campaign heavily set in winning over Fukkers and wayward Tories. Forget your common or garden Tory, and especially forget your 2019 first time red wall Tory, this is hang em and flog em only. Various mad policy announcements have gone down like a bucke of warm sick - National Service a prime example. Despite this that Tory chasm remains gargantuan. It isn't working Now The Nigel (for it is He) comes back. On a mission to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. Sunak in a mad panic will now try and tack even harder to the right to see him off. The madder the Tories get, the harder they lose. They can't out fUK RefUK, and in trying they lose even more of middle England.
And this is why the Nigel is manna from heaven for the Liberal Democrats. The Tories will unveil ever madder and more repugnant policies over the remaining month, and that just lets us pick up more seats.
"us"?
I take it you're back in the Lib Dems then? I thought you had left them. Sorry if you've already discussed this, not been on here much lately.
PS I agree with your logic entirely. Sunak is ensuring I'll vote for either the Lib Dems or Labour rather than the Tories.
The Lib Dems are going to get far more seats than the Fukkers.
Rochdale is the lib dem candidate in my seat
Wow I have missed news here then.
Good look @RochdalePioneers - we don't always agree on things, but I know you have your heart in the right place and think you'd be a good addition to Parliament.
I imagine he would. However, I'm not convinced he is anticipating victory.
As things stand, it's looking like 4th out of 4. No idea whether new candidates are incoming or not.
I've always said I'm voting against the Tories in the next election, which for the longest time looked like a nailed on SNP vote from me. But things are a little more exciting now. The FindOutNow MRP has it as SNP 31% Labour 24% Conservative 23% Green 8% Lib Dem 5% Other 9%
So Labour are very much in play again. But the Green and Other (Alba?) are interesting. Quite high numbers but no sign of any candidates yet. I still see the SNP as the best bet for unseating Duguid (and I hope he's recovering well from his health scare), but we've got weeks to go yet so no need to rush to a decision yet.
I mean Labour lost their deposit in Banff in 2019 and haven't got above 14% in B and B since 1983, they ain't getting second there even withany boundary changes
I'm amazed to see them riding so high in that poll, but it strikes me as within the realms of possibility. I suspect that their ground game is non-existent here, though, which makes getting out the vote a tough prospect. The SNP and Conservatives have a presence here and have been out campaigning, which is part of the reason I'm still reasonably sure it's between the two of them. But there's ages to go. Anything could happen. When nominations close, there'll at least be clarity on the who's on the table. I'm not quite sure which way "Green" VI will break. It won't all go SNP for sure.
Well as you say we will see but if Labour got 15% there I'd fancy them to be close to 450 seats nationally. It's just not Labour territory. Never has been in the last 50 years. It would be like them running Newbury close
I know, I agree. But I'm open minded and I'll keep monitoring it. I'd vote for almost anyone who has the best chance of beating the Tories. Even Alba 🤮
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Reform's polling has, I think, ticked up a bit since the election was called. This has been surprising, given Farage's earlier announcement he was busy in the US. So, either most Reform supporters still expected him to stand, or it made no difference to them. In both cases we might not expect to see any large change.
On the other hand, Reform will likely get a lot more attention now.
One point that others have made recently - people who tell opinion pollsters they will vote weird are quite different to other voters. This may explain why the squeeze in the early part of the campaign didn't happen, but it might also put a cap on how high they might go in the rest of the campaign.
Why doesn’t Matthew Goodwin run as an MP? He seems to know everything and just sits on Twitter all day. One wonders why he doesn’t do something useful with his life.
He's a professor of government at Essex university.
Precisely.
The late, great Professor Tony King held the same post as I recall.
@PippaCrerar Oh dear. The Conservatives’ first election broadcast shows the union flag flying the wrong way up, which is a distress signal… (h/t @Markwmw_02 )
Few people watching it would have noticed, but it is the kind of amusement that will circulate quickly.
Agreed it'll be deliberate to get attention when otherwise the PB would have been ignored
Talking of parties starting their descent towards the election landing strip, it looks like the Greens are well and truly past Canary Wharf and into the steep drop towards City Airport.
Not surprising, though I thought Gaza and the Starmer purges might keep them buoyant for a while. Main beneficiary probably Labour.
I am guessing there will be no Greens in parliament after the 4th. I’m a Green myself, so obvs not terrifically pleased by that prospect. Bristol is an interesting prospect, but I think focusing on locals and doing a good job as councillors and councils is the way forward. I don’t think this will be a great election for the Greens (albeit with a silver lining that it might focus minds away from disgruntled Momentumites, who presumably have a new home anyway in the George Galloway Vanity Vehicle Party).
Is Lee Anderson perfectly positioned to broker a Farage Truss dream ticket after the election?
Surely a defeat of Sunak vindicates everything she stood for. 🤪
No
If Sunak goes down, he will take certain strands of Conservative thought with him. Expect Truss to claim that she was right. As an acolyte of Trump she and Farage are natural allies.
Truss can claim whatever she wants, but history will show that she handed Labour the biggest election gift ever in politics and should join Farage in Reform (though I expect him to lose and be on a plane to the US on the 5th July)
Sunak is worse than Truss.
Even Truss wasn't mad enough to talk about National Service.
Nobody in history has been worse for the conservative party than Truss and that includes Johnson
This is correct.
"Truss" is the go to name for any opposition politician when their back is against the wall. Not "Johnson" nor "Sunak" but "Truss".
There is a reason for that. It makes it impossible for Sunak to sell the concept of competence, or fear of Labour. He's a useless salesman anyway but, whenever he even tries it, people yell "Truss".
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Reform's polling has, I think, ticked up a bit since the election was called. This has been surprising, given Farage's earlier announcement he was busy in the US. So, either most Reform supporters still expected him to stand, or it made no difference to them. In both cases we might not expect to see any large change.
On the other hand, Reform will likely get a lot more attention now.
One point that others have made recently - people who tell opinion pollsters they will vote weird are quite different to other voters. This may explain why the squeeze in the early part of the campaign didn't happen, but it might also put a cap on how high they might go in the rest of the campaign.
Will Reform be allowed to get more attention though? Election rules mean the media companies have to give proportionate coverage. I’m not sure what that means for how much airtime Farage can get but by rights it should be similar to the Greens and less than the Lib Dems.
Love The Way You Lie is the title to an Eminem track that best sums up Farage’s appeal to his knuckle-dragging, mouth-breathing, window-licking acolytes.
Eminem is a Woke Libtard. NOT a fan of Farage's heart-throb DJT.
Not sure of status under English (or Scottish) law, but this year Eminem sent a cease and desist letter to Vivek Ramaswamy for using his music without permission or consent.
He also sued a party in New Zealand for using a soundalike of one of his songs, I think he's just generally litigious.
Would YOU want a pack of politicos you would never vote, abusing YOUR artistic gifts (if any)?
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Reform's polling has, I think, ticked up a bit since the election was called. This has been surprising, given Farage's earlier announcement he was busy in the US. So, either most Reform supporters still expected him to stand, or it made no difference to them. In both cases we might not expect to see any large change.
On the other hand, Reform will likely get a lot more attention now.
One point that others have made recently - people who tell opinion pollsters they will vote weird are quite different to other voters. This may explain why the squeeze in the early part of the campaign didn't happen, but it might also put a cap on how high they might go in the rest of the campaign.
Will Reform be allowed to get more attention though? Election rules mean the media companies have to give proportionate coverage. I’m not sure what that means for how much airtime Farage can get but by rights it should be similar to the Greens and less than the Lib Dems.
If anything, we might be lucky and they'll be legally obliged to show less of him.
Is Lee Anderson perfectly positioned to broker a Farage Truss dream ticket after the election?
Surely a defeat of Sunak vindicates everything she stood for. 🤪
No
If Sunak goes down, he will take certain strands of Conservative thought with him. Expect Truss to claim that she was right. As an acolyte of Trump she and Farage are natural allies.
Truss can claim whatever she wants, but history will show that she handed Labour the biggest election gift ever in politics and should join Farage in Reform (though I expect him to lose and be on a plane to the US on the 5th July)
Sunak is worse than Truss.
Even Truss wasn't mad enough to talk about National Service.
Nobody in history has been worse for the conservative party than Truss and that includes Johnson
Rishi Sunak calling an early election and running on a platform of bringing back National Service nearly seventy years after it was rightly abolished is even worse than both Truss and Johnson.
A true right wing leader, Ronald Reagan, famously had a slogan that "the buck stops here" - well the buck stops here for Sunak too and this is his defeat when it happens.
Approximately 2-1/2" x 13" in size and mounted on walnut base, the painted glass sign has the words "I'm From Missouri" on the reverse side. It appeared at different times on his desk until late in his administration. . . .
On more than one occasion President Truman referred to the desk sign in public statements. For example, in an address at the National War College on December 19, 1952 Mr. Truman said,
"You know, it's easy for the Monday morning quarterback to say what the coach should have done, after the game is over. But when the decision is up before you -- and on my desk I have a motto which says The Buck Stops Here' -- the decision has to be made." In his farewell address to the American people given in January 1953, President Truman referred to this concept very specifically in asserting that, "The President--whoever he is--has to decide. He can't pass the buck to anybody. No one else can do the deciding for him. That's his job."
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Reform's polling has, I think, ticked up a bit since the election was called. This has been surprising, given Farage's earlier announcement he was busy in the US. So, either most Reform supporters still expected him to stand, or it made no difference to them. In both cases we might not expect to see any large change.
On the other hand, Reform will likely get a lot more attention now.
One point that others have made recently - people who tell opinion pollsters they will vote weird are quite different to other voters. This may explain why the squeeze in the early part of the campaign didn't happen, but it might also put a cap on how high they might go in the rest of the campaign.
Will Reform be allowed to get more attention though? Election rules mean the media companies have to give proportionate coverage. I’m not sure what that means for how much airtime Farage can get but by rights it should be similar to the Greens and less than the Lib Dems.
The coverage rules are all tedious clock counting. If Farage is creating news, and crossover is the story, it's the story.
The coverage rules are about giving airtime to interviewees giving different views, not about reporting stories - there is a lot of tolerance as to how minutes are distributed between "Our top story today is..." and "If you're still watching, this also took place..."
Hmm. Looking at the 2019 polling numbers pre-Boris, the Brexit Party peaked on 26% and the Tories bottomed out at 19%.
I wonder if that’s the most extreme possible scenario. Although to achieve that he’d presumably also have to eat into some Labour votes, taking them into the high thirties, which is far from impossible.
God only knows what that does to seats. I assume a lot of Reform high places but few seats, and a Tory apocalypse. Might be a fascinating election.
Grant Shapps seems furious with Sophy Ridge for telling Ed Conway to put his call through live on air. Calls Sky News “some sort of Michael McIntyre show” and starts chuntering about reporting her to Ofcom. Oh dear.
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Reform's polling has, I think, ticked up a bit since the election was called. This has been surprising, given Farage's earlier announcement he was busy in the US. So, either most Reform supporters still expected him to stand, or it made no difference to them. In both cases we might not expect to see any large change.
On the other hand, Reform will likely get a lot more attention now.
One point that others have made recently - people who tell opinion pollsters they will vote weird are quite different to other voters. This may explain why the squeeze in the early part of the campaign didn't happen, but it might also put a cap on how high they might go in the rest of the campaign.
Will Reform be allowed to get more attention though? Election rules mean the media companies have to give proportionate coverage. I’m not sure what that means for how much airtime Farage can get but by rights it should be similar to the Greens and less than the Lib Dems.
I don't know how the rules work precisely - are there people counting seconds? I think it's more art than science, and then you have the question of how much time is worth on different programmes, etc, with some being more watched than others.
I do know that the media will want to cover him, because not much else is happening to stop the election being a foregone conclusion, and he has the potential to shake things up a bit. Plus, of course, people by-and-large have very strong feelings about him, so he drives positive and negative engagement.
Grant Shapps seems furious with Sophy Ridge for telling Ed Conway to put his call through live on air. Calls Sky News “some sort of Michael McIntyre show” and starts chuntering about reporting her to Ofcom. Oh dear.
It was a very childish stunt unbecoming of a national news station tbf
Why doesn’t Matthew Goodwin run as an MP? He seems to know everything and just sits on Twitter all day. One wonders why he doesn’t do something useful with his life.
He's a professor of government at Essex university.
Precisely.
The late, great Professor Tony King held the same post as I recall.
Farage talking about Labour already having won the election is obviously an attempt to depress turnout with Labour voters. Might work.
I doubt it, Labour voters seem fired up. I think it’s more aimed at certain Tory voters; it’s saying ‘don’t waste your vote on something you don’t believe in thinking you have any chance of changing the outcome, vote for me because you think I believe what you do’.
It remains to be seen how many traumatised Tory voters are willing to fall into the arms of their serial abuser.
Sunak’s basic problem is that most people hate him. But, he’s really carrying the can for the incompetence of May, Johnson, and Truss.
Do most (real world) people hate him? Really? PB is not the real world.
According to polls, yes. But it's more kind of contempt and thinking he's crap and out of his depth rather than hate. He's a Tory Ed Miliband with the misfortune to arrive after his predecessors had trashed the Tory brand in a way that needed a really strong, imaginative leader to change perceptions. Unlike Ed M when he was disliked but Labour still had a reasonably strong brand in large parts of the country.
Problem for the Tories is their name is mud everywhere, and Sunak has allowed that to drag him down by continuing down the same path while looking awkward, out of touch, and out of his depth.
The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?
I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
Here I part company with you and Leon.
There is no appetite for a right-wing party in this country, certainly not any more. Socially the country is pretty liberal now. We’re also a thoroughly multi-cultural society and that ain’t changing.
These are things I know some of you older folk loathe and rage against in the dying of the light but I’m afraid, for you, it’s true.
Yeah, no, just look at France, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands and probably the USA. And maybe even Germany. And multiple other western nations
Britain is BEHIND the curve. Is all. The backlash against multiculturalism and mass migration is real and it is happening everywhere
It's also a backlash against tourism and tourists in many places. The same type of sentiment is behind it. People are turning inwards.
Hmm. Looking at the 2019 polling numbers pre-Boris, the Brexit Party peaked on 26% and the Tories bottomed out at 19%.
I wonder if that’s the most extreme possible scenario. Although to achieve that he’d presumably also have to eat into some Labour votes, taking them into the high thirties, which is far from impossible.
God only knows what that does to seats. I assume a lot of Reform high places but few seats, and a Tory apocalypse. Might be a fascinating election.
That was after Brexit looked like utterly collapsing. I mean Farage aint adding 14% to Reforms score. I doubt he adds more than a couple % if anything
Back from the Epping Forest Conservatives selection meeting where we selected former Penrith MP Dr Neil Hudson as our candidate to succeed Dame Eleanor. Neil was very articulate and answered all questions well and has some family links to the area where he grew up.
Good performances from Anita and Louise too who I am sure will get a seat in due course
Another thought. Farage could help get PR over the line in a referendum, even though everyone else on his side would hate him. Galloway would be on that side too, and effective.
But then a Labour landslide means no PR referendum I suppose.
So here’s an idea. Sunak offers to debate Farage 1:1 and defeats him. A good roll of the dice?
So, let's go against a debate opponent who is more experienced, more skilled and has been talking about this particular topic as his specialist subject. What's the chances of rolling a 15 on 2d6?
Hmm. Looking at the 2019 polling numbers pre-Boris, the Brexit Party peaked on 26% and the Tories bottomed out at 19%.
I wonder if that’s the most extreme possible scenario. Although to achieve that he’d presumably also have to eat into some Labour votes, taking them into the high thirties, which is far from impossible.
God only knows what that does to seats. I assume a lot of Reform high places but few seats, and a Tory apocalypse. Might be a fascinating election.
2019 was a single issue election; getting Brexit done (which was a strong solid concept to base an election around). So being the Brexit Party naturally increased their salience.
Cba to look too much into but am fairly sure that actual votes for UKIP/BXP/REFUK have always tended to underperform vs polling.
So here’s an idea. Sunak offers to debate Farage 1:1 and defeats him. A good roll of the dice?
So, let's go against a debate opponent who is more experienced, more skilled and has been talking about this particular topic as his specialist subject. What's the chances of rolling a 15 on 2d6?
Sunak could play his trump card and win easily: "If it wasn't for immigration, I wouldn't be able to be your Prime Minister today."
Back from the Epping Forest Conservatives selection meeting where we selected former Penrith MP Dr Neil Hudson as our candidate to succeed Dame Eleanor. Neil was very articulate and answered all questions well and has some family links to the area where he grew up.
Good performances from Anita and Louise too who I am sure will get a seat in due course
Were any of the trip actually currently living in the constituency?
Grant Shapps seems furious with Sophy Ridge for telling Ed Conway to put his call through live on air. Calls Sky News “some sort of Michael McIntyre show” and starts chuntering about reporting her to Ofcom. Oh dear.
It was a very childish stunt unbecoming of a national news station tbf
It was, although still funny. Shapps rang Conway not vice versa. But Sophy shouldn’t have told him to take the call.
Farage talking about Labour already having won the election is obviously an attempt to depress turnout with Labour voters. Might work.
I doubt it, Labour voters seem fired up. I think it’s more aimed at certain Tory voters; it’s saying ‘don’t waste your vote on something you don’t believe in thinking you have any chance of changing the outcome, vote for me because you think I believe what you do’.
It remains to be seen how many traumatised Tory voters are willing to fall into the arms of their serial abuser.
They love him really. That's why they keep going back.
Back from the Epping Forest Conservatives selection meeting where we selected former Penrith MP Dr Neil Hudson as our candidate to succeed Dame Eleanor. Neil was very articulate and answered all questions well and has some family links to the area where he grew up.
Good performances from Anita and Louise too who I am sure will get a seat in due course
Were any of the trip actually currently living in the constituency?
Neil commuted from Theydon where his parents live to Westminster though yes we wanted a local candidate to choose from as well and made that point to CCHQ officials there beforehand but we are where we are
Grant Shapps seems furious with Sophy Ridge for telling Ed Conway to put his call through live on air. Calls Sky News “some sort of Michael McIntyre show” and starts chuntering about reporting her to Ofcom. Oh dear.
It was a very childish stunt unbecoming of a national news station tbf
It was, although still funny. Shapps rang Conway not vice versa. But Sophy shouldn’t have told him to take the call.
But was a guilty pleasure.
Yeah, it was kinda amusing but Sky deserve a slapped wrist, its not really on, thats not how a serious news channel operates in a GE
I don't think Farage standing will cause any additional issues for the Tories.
The kind of individual who still intends to vote Conservative is most likely to be someone like BigG or DavidL - institutionalist, traditionalist. Indeed, I think this actually shores up the Conservative vote because Farage is not a blank slate onto which you can project those values.
This could change if Sunak panics and turns to the death penalty, human rights and so on. No one would switch from Reform to Tory, but even more Tories would stay at home or even consider Lib Dems or Labour.
So here’s an idea. Sunak offers to debate Farage 1:1 and defeats him. A good roll of the dice?
The problem for Sunak is that he would probably defeat Farage with all the voters who would never vote either Conservative or RefUK.
But that’s ok isn’t it, he then spend the last week of the campaign crowing that he had the guts to face down Farage.
If Sunak was clever, Farage represents an opportunity, but he has to go all in aggressively.
Sunak and Starmer have arranged head to head debates solely between them, thus excluding Farage, the Greens and SNP and Davey from any oxygen of publicity. Indeed both have declined the 7 way debate, sending Mordaunt and Rayner instead
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Reform's polling has, I think, ticked up a bit since the election was called. This has been surprising, given Farage's earlier announcement he was busy in the US. So, either most Reform supporters still expected him to stand, or it made no difference to them. In both cases we might not expect to see any large change.
On the other hand, Reform will likely get a lot more attention now.
One point that others have made recently - people who tell opinion pollsters they will vote weird are quite different to other voters. This may explain why the squeeze in the early part of the campaign didn't happen, but it might also put a cap on how high they might go in the rest of the campaign.
Will Reform be allowed to get more attention though? Election rules mean the media companies have to give proportionate coverage. I’m not sure what that means for how much airtime Farage can get but by rights it should be similar to the Greens and less than the Lib Dems.
I don't know how the rules work precisely - are there people counting seconds? I think it's more art than science, and then you have the question of how much time is worth on different programmes, etc, with some being more watched than others.
I do know that the media will want to cover him, because not much else is happening to stop the election being a foregone conclusion, and he has the potential to shake things up a bit. Plus, of course, people by-and-large have very strong feelings about him, so he drives positive and negative engagement.
I'm wondering about airtime too. Let's suppose that Reform draw level or overtake Cons in the polls. Could you then still justify a situation where Lab and Con get more airtime than everyone else? Ditto the debates
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Reform's polling has, I think, ticked up a bit since the election was called. This has been surprising, given Farage's earlier announcement he was busy in the US. So, either most Reform supporters still expected him to stand, or it made no difference to them. In both cases we might not expect to see any large change.
On the other hand, Reform will likely get a lot more attention now.
One point that others have made recently - people who tell opinion pollsters they will vote weird are quite different to other voters. This may explain why the squeeze in the early part of the campaign didn't happen, but it might also put a cap on how high they might go in the rest of the campaign.
Will Reform be allowed to get more attention though? Election rules mean the media companies have to give proportionate coverage. I’m not sure what that means for how much airtime Farage can get but by rights it should be similar to the Greens and less than the Lib Dems.
I don't know how the rules work precisely - are there people counting seconds? I think it's more art than science, and then you have the question of how much time is worth on different programmes, etc, with some being more watched than others.
I do know that the media will want to cover him, because not much else is happening to stop the election being a foregone conclusion, and he has the potential to shake things up a bit. Plus, of course, people by-and-large have very strong feelings about him, so he drives positive and negative engagement.
I'm wondering about airtime too. Let's suppose that Reform draw level or overtake Cons in the polls. Could you then still justify a situation where Lab and Con get more airtime than everyone else? Ditto the debates
I think Farage is capable of making as much news, and as many sound bites, by not being invited as he would if he was.
Sunak’s basic problem is that most people hate him. But, he’s really carrying the can for the incompetence of May, Johnson, and Truss.
Do most (real world) people hate him? Really? PB is not the real world.
When something went really badly wrong at work today someone quipped "that was a bit of a Sunak". It got a lot of knowing smiles.
Yes, people in the real world seem to genuinely dislike Sunak. To a much more universal extent that seemed to be the case with Boris or Truss. Of course, that might just be his misfortune to be a fag-end PM. Possibly anyone in his situation would be regarded the same. But I don't recall the same level of opprobrium towards Major. Possibly towards Brown. Like Brown, Sunak unfortunately just ooozes insincerity.
I’m wondering about the chances Farage’s reemergence as Reform leader and candidate could be a damp squib.
Most likely his announcement today sees Ref jump up a few points in the polls this week at the expense of both Tories and Labour, and possibly the Lib Dems. But is the chance of there being no bounce definitely zero?
Reform were in the early stages of their polling descent as the 4th July date came into view. If Farage slows the decline a bit but they still decline, then what?
Reform's polling has, I think, ticked up a bit since the election was called. This has been surprising, given Farage's earlier announcement he was busy in the US. So, either most Reform supporters still expected him to stand, or it made no difference to them. In both cases we might not expect to see any large change.
On the other hand, Reform will likely get a lot more attention now.
One point that others have made recently - people who tell opinion pollsters they will vote weird are quite different to other voters. This may explain why the squeeze in the early part of the campaign didn't happen, but it might also put a cap on how high they might go in the rest of the campaign.
Will Reform be allowed to get more attention though? Election rules mean the media companies have to give proportionate coverage. I’m not sure what that means for how much airtime Farage can get but by rights it should be similar to the Greens and less than the Lib Dems.
I don't know how the rules work precisely - are there people counting seconds? I think it's more art than science, and then you have the question of how much time is worth on different programmes, etc, with some being more watched than others.
I do know that the media will want to cover him, because not much else is happening to stop the election being a foregone conclusion, and he has the potential to shake things up a bit. Plus, of course, people by-and-large have very strong feelings about him, so he drives positive and negative engagement.
I'm wondering about airtime too. Let's suppose that Reform draw level or overtake Cons in the polls. Could you then still justify a situation where Lab and Con get more airtime than everyone else? Ditto the debates
In the past they've talked about track record in previous elections, numbers of MPs, etc - so even though Reform are polling higher than either Lib Dems or Greens, you could justify not simply following the opinion poll scores on the relative number of MPs and councillors.
But because there isn't a rigid mathematical rule, this means there is plenty of scope for it to be interpreted to fit an editorial agenda, at least to a certain extent.
Sunak’s basic problem is that most people hate him. But, he’s really carrying the can for the incompetence of May, Johnson, and Truss.
Do most (real world) people hate him? Really? PB is not the real world.
When something went really badly wrong at work today someone quipped "that was a bit of a Sunak". It got a lot of knowing smiles.
Yes, people in the real world seem to genuinely dislike Sunak. To a much more universal extent that seemed to be the case with Boris or Truss. Of course, that might just be his misfortune to be a fag-end PM. Possibly anyone in his situation would be regarded the same. But I don't recall the same level of opprobrium towards Major. Possibly towards Brown. Like Brown, Sunak unfortunately just ooozes insincerity.
I think it’s worse than disliking him. They have no respect for him, and think he’s a joke. That’s much worse.
Thatcher could be disliked. Blair was disliked after Iraq, and did his “masochism strategy”. But they were respected.
Sunak’s basic problem is that most people hate him. But, he’s really carrying the can for the incompetence of May, Johnson, and Truss.
Do most (real world) people hate him? Really? PB is not the real world.
When something went really badly wrong at work today someone quipped "that was a bit of a Sunak". It got a lot of knowing smiles.
Yes, people in the real world seem to genuinely dislike Sunak. To a much more universal extent that seemed to be the case with Boris or Truss. Of course, that might just be his misfortune to be a fag-end PM. Possibly anyone in his situation would be regarded the same. But I don't recall the same level of opprobrium towards Major. Possibly towards Brown. Like Brown, Sunak unfortunately just ooozes insincerity.
That isn't an example of people disliking him. It's derision and something akin to pity, which is worse.
I don't think Farage standing will cause any additional issues for the Tories.
The kind of individual who still intends to vote Conservative is most likely to be someone like BigG or DavidL - institutionalist, traditionalist. Indeed, I think this actually shores up the Conservative vote because Farage is not a blank slate onto which you can project those values.
This could change if Sunak panics and turns to the death penalty, human rights and so on. No one would switch from Reform to Tory, but even more Tories would stay at home or even consider Lib Dems or Labour.
Sunak’s basic problem is that most people hate him. But, he’s really carrying the can for the incompetence of May, Johnson, and Truss.
For me the Tories, main problem is not any single leader but the fact that they have had 5 PMs in 8 years, all of whom have been completely different. This has led to a complete ideological mess and meant that every group of Tory voters has reason to be peed off.
Tory Remainers are annoyed about Brexit Tory Brexiteers are annoyed that immigration hasn't been controlled. Red Wallers are annoyed that the promised investment hasn't materialised and that Public services are failing Thatcherites are annoyed that taxes are at a record high.
And they've even managed to annoy pensioners by freezing tax thresholds and then cutting NI.
You can then see how the complete collapse (Canada) scenario manifests as competing parties didn't need to all cover every segment. LDs can go for the Remainers, Reform for the Brexiteers and Thatcherites, and Labour for the Red Wallers
Sunak’s basic problem is that most people hate him. But, he’s really carrying the can for the incompetence of May, Johnson, and Truss.
Do most (real world) people hate him? Really? PB is not the real world.
When something went really badly wrong at work today someone quipped "that was a bit of a Sunak". It got a lot of knowing smiles.
Yes, people in the real world seem to genuinely dislike Sunak. To a much more universal extent that seemed to be the case with Boris or Truss. Of course, that might just be his misfortune to be a fag-end PM. Possibly anyone in his situation would be regarded the same. But I don't recall the same level of opprobrium towards Major. Possibly towards Brown. Like Brown, Sunak unfortunately just ooozes insincerity.
Few people wanted Major to carry on being PM in 1997, but there was still a sense of him being a decent guy doing his best. So I do think that there was an element of pity snog before dumping him. A bit different with Brown- he wasn't liked and had to go, but there was some respect for a man of substance.
(Doesn't matter how true either impression was, both Major and Brown were old pros who knew how to play the game, if not how to win it.)
Sunak isn't liked or respected, and I suspect that the public haven't fully taken on board how ghastly he presents as. Because he is rubbish at basic politics. Hence a worse result than 1997 is incoming.
So here’s an idea. Sunak offers to debate Farage 1:1 and defeats him. A good roll of the dice?
The problem for Sunak is that he would probably defeat Farage with all the voters who would never vote either Conservative or RefUK.
In Thanet South in 2015 it was Labour and LD voters tactically voting for Tory candidate Craig Mackinlay that beat UKIP and Farage
Do you have any evidence backing that up? Nationally there was a 0.5% swing from Con to Lab in GE15, in South Thanet it was 1.2% with Labour losing the Stephen Ladyman incumbency premium which might have added another 1%. Lib Dems did plummet from 15% to under 2% but they plummeted everywhere in GE15.
How about the next election, did any tactical vote unwind? Nationally there was a 2.0% swing from Con to Lab, In South Thanet it was 0.7% with Mackinley now getting the benefit of incumbency. It looks like Farage/UKIP took votes from Con, Lab and LD evenly with LD>Con and LD>Lab churn within that. I don't see any evidence of tactical voting within the data.
The Tories are seriously doing ANOTHER cap on migration?
Getting desperate now.
Unlike Starmer pledging to bring down immigration.
Starmer has never been in government.
Rubbish - his VAT change has already closed schools.
My point is that people are down on everything the Conservatives say, but if Labour do the same there seems to be no response. I get that people can say you’ve had 14 years, why should we believe you.
The Tories are seriously doing ANOTHER cap on migration?
Its what the politically disengaged want to hear. The fact they always do it is irrelevant to its aim. A headline to grab a few more angry pub bores votes
Sunak’s basic problem is that most people hate him. But, he’s really carrying the can for the incompetence of May, Johnson, and Truss.
Do most (real world) people hate him? Really? PB is not the real world.
When something went really badly wrong at work today someone quipped "that was a bit of a Sunak". It got a lot of knowing smiles.
Yes, people in the real world seem to genuinely dislike Sunak. To a much more universal extent that seemed to be the case with Boris or Truss. Of course, that might just be his misfortune to be a fag-end PM. Possibly anyone in his situation would be regarded the same. But I don't recall the same level of opprobrium towards Major. Possibly towards Brown. Like Brown, Sunak unfortunately just ooozes insincerity.
Few people wanted Major to carry on being PM in 1997, but there was still a sense of him being a decent guy doing his best. So I do think that there was an element of pity snog before dumping him. A bit different with Brown- he wasn't liked and had to go, but there was some respect for a man of substance.
(Doesn't matter how true either impression was, both Major and Brown were old pros who knew how to play the game, if not how to win it.)
Sunak isn't liked or respected, and I suspect that the public haven't fully taken on board how ghastly he presents as. Because he is rubbish at basic politics. Hence a worse result than 1997 is incoming.
and Major had of course won a difficult to win election before - sunak just became PM by default almost and had no gravitas
Sunak’s basic problem is that most people hate him. But, he’s really carrying the can for the incompetence of May, Johnson, and Truss.
Do most (real world) people hate him? Really? PB is not the real world.
When something went really badly wrong at work today someone quipped "that was a bit of a Sunak". It got a lot of knowing smiles.
Yes, people in the real world seem to genuinely dislike Sunak. To a much more universal extent that seemed to be the case with Boris or Truss. Of course, that might just be his misfortune to be a fag-end PM. Possibly anyone in his situation would be regarded the same. But I don't recall the same level of opprobrium towards Major. Possibly towards Brown. Like Brown, Sunak unfortunately just ooozes insincerity.
I think it’s worse than disliking him. They have no respect for him, and think he’s a joke. That’s much worse.
Thatcher could be disliked. Blair was disliked after Iraq, and did his “masochism strategy”. But they were respected.
The best PM figures dont support this 'joke' and no respect assertion. Hes well behind, but still retains high 20s to 30 in most best PM polls. His aporovals are not really poorer than other unpopular PMs. Hes just 'standard' unpopular, and change is on the table.
So here’s an idea. Sunak offers to debate Farage 1:1 and defeats him. A good roll of the dice?
The problem for Sunak is that he would probably defeat Farage with all the voters who would never vote either Conservative or RefUK.
In Thanet South in 2015 it was Labour and LD voters tactically voting for Tory candidate Craig Mackinlay that beat UKIP and Farage
Do you have any evidence backing that up? Nationally there was a 0.5% swing from Con to Lab in GE15, in South Thanet it was 1.2% with Labour losing the Stephen Ladyman incumbency premium which might have added another 1%. Lib Dems did plummet from 15% to under 2% but they plummeted everywhere in GE15.
How about the next election, did any tactical vote unwind? Nationally there was a 2.0% swing from Con to Lab, In South Thanet it was 0.7% with Mackinley now getting the benefit of incumbency. It looks like Farage/UKIP took votes from Con, Lab and LD evenly with LD>Con and LD>Lab churn within that. I don't see any evidence of tactical voting within the data.
Yes. In 2015 the Labour vote was down 7.6% in Thanet South compared to up 1% nationally. The LD vote was down 13% in Thanet South too.
The Tories beat Farage and UKIP by just 5.7% in the seat, so yes it was Labour and LD tactical votes for the Tories that beat Farage in Thanet in 2015
Ministers are refusing to put a figure on a target reduction in migration but would commission the Government’s migration advisers to set a cap that would ensure it was brought down to “sustainable” levels.
Its another non-policy from the Tories. Again they won't actually make a hard decision. They outsource the decision, then there is loads of lobbying and stories of no strawberrys for Wimbledon and you end up with same as now. Your Leon's of this world aren't going to vote for that.
Ultimately, Sunak’s level was Minister of State. He’s just not good enough for what came after and that’s been really clear.
Starmer, unfortunately, has the same issue. It’s going to be turbulent times for a decade I reckon.
There is a big difference between a manager and a leader. Sunak is definitely not a leader.
A leader sets the vision, gets out ahead of issues, comes up with approaches to move things forward and hires the right people to manage the implementation.
The Tories are seriously doing ANOTHER cap on migration?
Getting desperate now.
Newsnight have just replayed the Victoria Derbyshire interview where she quotes every previous cap back to Holden Dick. It’s almost too cringeworthy to watch.
The Tories are seriously doing ANOTHER cap on migration?
Getting desperate now.
Unlike Starmer pledging to bring down immigration.
Starmer has never been in government.
Rubbish - his VAT change has already closed schools.
My point is that people are down on everything the Conservatives say, but if Labour do the same there seems to be no response. I get that people can say you’ve had 14 years, why should we believe you.
Nope if you look at the 2 schools that are closing and claim that VAT is the issue, in both cases there were historic issues with declining numbers that are the real issue, VAT is just a useful distraction from the incompetency
Sunak’s basic problem is that most people hate him. But, he’s really carrying the can for the incompetence of May, Johnson, and Truss.
For me the Tories, main problem is not any single leader but the fact that they have had 5 PMs in 8 years, all of whom have been completely different. This has led to a complete ideological mess and meant that every group of Tory voters has reason to be peed off.
Tory Remainers are annoyed about Brexit Tory Brexiteers are annoyed that immigration hasn't been controlled. Red Wallers are annoyed that the promised investment hasn't materialised and that Public services are failing Thatcherites are annoyed that taxes are at a record high.
And they've even managed to annoy pensioners by freezing tax thresholds and then cutting NI.
You can then see how the complete collapse (Canada) scenario manifests as competing parties didn't need to all cover every segment. LDs can go for the Remainers, Reform for the Brexiteers and Thatcherites, and Labour for the Red Wallers
Part of the problem has been the breakdown in any sense of collective endeavour. At no point in the entire of the period of government have those less aligned with the strategic position of the leader been willing to go along with things and present a united front. It has always broken down into briefings and letters to Dame Graham. Sunak has basically been being threatened with a VONC for almost his entire time in office.
Sunak has to take responsibility for his errors but he can’t be blamed for the fact that the party has been consistently unwilling to be led. So whatever is coming in a month from now, it’s for the whole Parliamentary Party to own. They should not get away with dumping it all on Sunak, particularly when May and Johnson faced similar factionalism albeit from different parts of the party.
Ministers are refusing to put a figure on a target reduction in migration but would commission the Government’s migration advisers to set a cap that would ensure it was brought down to “sustainable” levels.
It’s another non-policy from the Tories. Again they won't actually make a hard decision. They outsource the decision, then there is loads of lobbying and stories of no strawberrys for Wimbledon and you end up with same as now. Your Leon's of this world aren't going to vote for that.
Post-Truss, they are terrified of standing for anything. I think having been in Government for 14 years also makes you cautious because you are more embedded in the detail and the constraints.
Out of interest who would you put as the most influential figures/protagonists in British politics in the 2010-25 era?
For me it's Farage, followed by Johnson. Cameron, Salmond, Corbyn, Sturgeon hon. mentions.
Without the first two the past decade and a half would have been very different - despite never being elected Farage has set the agenda that led to the (likely) almost elimination of the Tories. Meanwhile Johnson has been the posterboy from Cameroonite Conservatism, through to Brexit, then chaos.
The Tories are seriously doing ANOTHER cap on migration?
Getting desperate now.
Unlike Starmer pledging to bring down immigration.
Starmer has never been in government.
Rubbish - his VAT change has already closed schools.
My point is that people are down on everything the Conservatives say, but if Labour do the same there seems to be no response. I get that people can say you’ve had 14 years, why should we believe you.
Nope if you look at the 2 schools that are closing and claim that VAT is the issue, in both cases there were historic issues with declining numbers that are the real issue, VAT is just a useful distraction from the incompetency
I don't think Farage standing will cause any additional issues for the Tories.
The kind of individual who still intends to vote Conservative is most likely to be someone like BigG or DavidL - institutionalist, traditionalist. Indeed, I think this actually shores up the Conservative vote because Farage is not a blank slate onto which you can project those values.
This could change if Sunak panics and turns to the death penalty, human rights and so on. No one would switch from Reform to Tory, but even more Tories would stay at home or even consider Lib Dems or Labour.
why would nobody switch from Reform to Tory ?
Because most reform voters come from UKIP rather than the Tory party. The last survey I looked in detail at had only 20% of reform voters having voting Tory in 2019
Ultimately, Sunak’s level was Minister of State. He’s just not good enough for what came after and that’s been really clear.
Starmer, unfortunately, has the same issue. It’s going to be turbulent times for a decade I reckon.
There's really no way to know for sure in advance who might be good and who won't. People who on paper have the experience, the knowledge, to be good PMs can turn out to be terrible, whilst others can have no experience whatsoever (being LoTO is the best we can do if out of power, but it's hardly comparable to the job that it is an application for) can turn out to be great.
Most PMs lack imagination (or have too much of it!), sacrifice ideals for dull pragmatism (or place ideology before everything!), struggle with managing public perception and internal party politics, and don't know nearly as much as they think they do, whilst appointing a random assortment of friends and enemies to run departments and deliver policy with little coherent vision.
In other words they're usually a bit crappy, if we are lucky on the competent side of the scale with a few decent ideas. We don't expect a great deal, so really they should exceed our expectations more than they do.
Sunak’s basic problem is that most people hate him. But, he’s really carrying the can for the incompetence of May, Johnson, and Truss.
Do most (real world) people hate him? Really? PB is not the real world.
When something went really badly wrong at work today someone quipped "that was a bit of a Sunak". It got a lot of knowing smiles.
Yes, people in the real world seem to genuinely dislike Sunak. To a much more universal extent that seemed to be the case with Boris or Truss. Of course, that might just be his misfortune to be a fag-end PM. Possibly anyone in his situation would be regarded the same. But I don't recall the same level of opprobrium towards Major. Possibly towards Brown. Like Brown, Sunak unfortunately just ooozes insincerity.
Unfair but yes. Sunak is neither as dishonest as Johnson nor as deluded as Truss but isn't appreciated for it.
I think there is some substance to the public's dislike of Sunak. A billionaire with a very right wing ideology, thinks government should be "small" ie favour rich people liked himself, has clearly no interest in people and how they live. This doesn't sit well.
Sunak’s basic problem is that most people hate him. But, he’s really carrying the can for the incompetence of May, Johnson, and Truss.
For me the Tories, main problem is not any single leader but the fact that they have had 5 PMs in 8 years, all of whom have been completely different. This has led to a complete ideological mess and meant that every group of Tory voters has reason to be peed off.
Tory Remainers are annoyed about Brexit Tory Brexiteers are annoyed that immigration hasn't been controlled. Red Wallers are annoyed that the promised investment hasn't materialised and that Public services are failing Thatcherites are annoyed that taxes are at a record high.
And they've even managed to annoy pensioners by freezing tax thresholds and then cutting NI.
You can then see how the complete collapse (Canada) scenario manifests as competing parties didn't need to all cover every segment. LDs can go for the Remainers, Reform for the Brexiteers and Thatcherites, and Labour for the Red Wallers
Part of the problem has been the breakdown in any sense of collective endeavour. At no point in the entire of the period of government have those less aligned with the strategic position of the leader been willing to go along with things and present a united front. It has always broken down into briefings and letters to Dame Graham. Sunak has basically been being threatened with a VONC for almost his entire time in office.
Sunak has to take responsibility for his errors but he can’t be blamed for the fact that the party has been consistently unwilling to be led. So whatever is coming in a month from now, it’s for the whole Parliamentary Party to own. They should not get away with dumping it all on Sunak, particularly when May and Johnson faced similar factionalism albeit from different parts of the party.
Absolutely. I also think candidate selection must be partly to blame too e.g. with Con MPs defecting to Lab (I can understand Con to Reform or Lab to Lib, but Con-Lab or vice versa I find inexplicable). It points to people being selected who are careerists rather than because they have strong beliefs.
Sunak’s basic problem is that most people hate him. But, he’s really carrying the can for the incompetence of May, Johnson, and Truss.
Do most (real world) people hate him? Really? PB is not the real world.
When something went really badly wrong at work today someone quipped "that was a bit of a Sunak". It got a lot of knowing smiles.
Yes, people in the real world seem to genuinely dislike Sunak. To a much more universal extent that seemed to be the case with Boris or Truss. Of course, that might just be his misfortune to be a fag-end PM. Possibly anyone in his situation would be regarded the same. But I don't recall the same level of opprobrium towards Major. Possibly towards Brown. Like Brown, Sunak unfortunately just ooozes insincerity.
Few people wanted Major to carry on being PM in 1997, but there was still a sense of him being a decent guy doing his best. So I do think that there was an element of pity snog before dumping him. A bit different with Brown- he wasn't liked and had to go, but there was some respect for a man of substance.
(Doesn't matter how true either impression was, both Major and Brown were old pros who knew how to play the game, if not how to win it.)
Sunak isn't liked or respected, and I suspect that the public haven't fully taken on board how ghastly he presents as. Because he is rubbish at basic politics. Hence a worse result than 1997 is incoming.
and Major had of course won a difficult to win election before - sunak just became PM by default almost and had no gravitas
I fell like it wasn't that bad. Sunak had been the Chancellor for more than two years. He'd warned that Truss' plan wouldn't work during the leadership contest. That gave him some personal credibility to build on. I think he just ballsed it up.
The messaging for what's been a tough period after the pandemic has been really poor, and then he's been flailing around trying to find a coup de main that will transform the political calculus at a stroke.
Sunak’s basic problem is that most people hate him. But, he’s really carrying the can for the incompetence of May, Johnson, and Truss.
For me the Tories, main problem is not any single leader but the fact that they have had 5 PMs in 8 years, all of whom have been completely different. This has led to a complete ideological mess and meant that every group of Tory voters has reason to be peed off.
Tory Remainers are annoyed about Brexit Tory Brexiteers are annoyed that immigration hasn't been controlled. Red Wallers are annoyed that the promised investment hasn't materialised and that Public services are failing Thatcherites are annoyed that taxes are at a record high.
And they've even managed to annoy pensioners by freezing tax thresholds and then cutting NI.
You can then see how the complete collapse (Canada) scenario manifests as competing parties didn't need to all cover every segment. LDs can go for the Remainers, Reform for the Brexiteers and Thatcherites, and Labour for the Red Wallers
Part of the problem has been the breakdown in any sense of collective endeavour. At no point in the entire of the period of government have those less aligned with the strategic position of the leader been willing to go along with things and present a united front. It has always broken down into briefings and letters to Dame Graham. Sunak has basically been being threatened with a VONC for almost his entire time in office.
Sunak has to take responsibility for his errors but he can’t be blamed for the fact that the party has been consistently unwilling to be led. So whatever is coming in a month from now, it’s for the whole Parliamentary Party to own. They should not get away with dumping it all on Sunak, particularly when May and Johnson faced similar factionalism albeit from different parts of the party.
Absolutely. I also think candidate selection must be partly to blame too e.g. with Con MPs defecting to Lab (I can understand Con to Reform or Lab to Lib, but Con-Lab or vice versa I find inexplicable). It points to people being selected who are careerists rather than because they have strong beliefs.
In that case we should make all the LD MPs run things, on the basis they surely did not choose to be LDs because they wanted to advance a potential career in government?
So here’s an idea. Sunak offers to debate Farage 1:1 and defeats him. A good roll of the dice?
The problem for Sunak is that he would probably defeat Farage with all the voters who would never vote either Conservative or RefUK.
In Thanet South in 2015 it was Labour and LD voters tactically voting for Tory candidate Craig Mackinlay that beat UKIP and Farage
Do you have any evidence backing that up? Nationally there was a 0.5% swing from Con to Lab in GE15, in South Thanet it was 1.2% with Labour losing the Stephen Ladyman incumbency premium which might have added another 1%. Lib Dems did plummet from 15% to under 2% but they plummeted everywhere in GE15.
How about the next election, did any tactical vote unwind? Nationally there was a 2.0% swing from Con to Lab, In South Thanet it was 0.7% with Mackinley now getting the benefit of incumbency. It looks like Farage/UKIP took votes from Con, Lab and LD evenly with LD>Con and LD>Lab churn within that. I don't see any evidence of tactical voting within the data.
Yes. In 2015 the Labour vote was down 7.6% in Thanet South compared to up 1% nationally. The LD vote was down 13% in Thanet South too.
The Tories beat Farage and UKIP by just 5.7% in the seat, so yes it was Labour and LD tactical votes for the Tories that beat Farage in Thanet in 2015
I think you're making an unlikely conclusion out of the data available.
Yes the Labour vote was down because some GE10 Lab voters voted for Farage/UKIP. The Tory vote was also down because some GE10 Con voters voted for Farage.
If you assume that most Farage/UKIP voters were GE10 Tories and therefore the loss in support from GE10 Labour and LD voters must have switched to Con to compensate for that loss then we would see that unwind in GE17 with the absence of Farage and no need for tactical voting. Lib Dems were 15% in GE10, 2% in GE15 and 3% in GE17, where did those 13% go? It seems like it split, the LD voters that liked coalition with the Tories moved to become Tories (not a tactical vote, a genuine change of preference that was common throughout the South) and the LD voters who had voted LD as a left-wing alternative to Labour moved back to Labour.
Out of interest who would you put as the most influential figures/protagonists in British politics in the 2010-25 era?
For me it's Farage, followed by Johnson. Cameron, Salmond, Corbyn, Sturgeon hon. mentions.
Without the first two the past decade and a half would have been very different - despite never being elected Farage has set the agenda that led to the (likely) almost elimination of the Tories. Meanwhile Johnson has been the posterboy from Cameroonite Conservatism, through to Brexit, then chaos.
Boris and its not even close. And left a trail of division and chaos in his wake.
Comments
Except for Batman and Terry Jeffords.
2 seats from SNP to LDs
3 seats from SNP to Cons
4 seats from Lab to SNP
1 seat from SNP-tossup with Lab to 3-way tossup (SNP/Lab/LD): Mid Dunbartonshire, with all three below 24%
1 seat from Labour-tossup with SNP to 3-way tossup (SNP/Lab/Con)
On the other hand, Reform will likely get a lot more attention now.
One point that others have made recently - people who tell opinion pollsters they will vote weird are quite different to other voters. This may explain why the squeeze in the early part of the campaign didn't happen, but it might also put a cap on how high they might go in the rest of the campaign.
"Truss" is the go to name for any opposition politician when their back is against the wall. Not "Johnson" nor "Sunak" but "Truss".
There is a reason for that. It makes it impossible for Sunak to sell the concept of competence, or fear of Labour. He's a useless salesman anyway but, whenever he even tries it, people yell "Truss".
Without compensation adding injury to insult!
Approximately 2-1/2" x 13" in size and mounted on walnut base, the painted glass sign has the words "I'm From Missouri" on the reverse side. It appeared at different times on his desk until late in his administration. . . .
On more than one occasion President Truman referred to the desk sign in public statements. For example, in an address at the National War College on December 19, 1952 Mr. Truman said,
"You know, it's easy for the Monday morning quarterback to say what the coach should have done, after the game is over. But when the decision is up before you -- and on my desk I have a motto which says The Buck Stops Here' -- the decision has to be made." In his farewell address to the American people given in January 1953, President Truman referred to this concept very specifically in asserting that, "The President--whoever he is--has to decide. He can't pass the buck to anybody. No one else can do the deciding for him. That's his job."
The coverage rules are about giving airtime to interviewees giving different views, not about reporting stories - there is a lot of tolerance as to how minutes are distributed between "Our top story today is..." and "If you're still watching, this also took place..."
I wonder if that’s the most extreme possible scenario. Although to achieve that he’d presumably also have to eat into some Labour votes, taking them into the high thirties, which is far from impossible.
God only knows what that does to seats. I assume a lot of Reform high places but few seats, and a Tory apocalypse. Might be a fascinating election.
The MRP did not name the various indies, Galloway etc. They will once candidate lists out
I do know that the media will want to cover him, because not much else is happening to stop the election being a foregone conclusion, and he has the potential to shake things up a bit. Plus, of course, people by-and-large have very strong feelings about him, so he drives positive and negative engagement.
It remains to be seen how many traumatised Tory voters are willing to fall into the arms of their serial abuser.
Problem for the Tories is their name is mud everywhere, and Sunak has allowed that to drag him down by continuing down the same path while looking awkward, out of touch, and out of his depth.
If Sunak was clever, Farage represents an opportunity, but he has to go all in aggressively.
Good performances from Anita and Louise too who I am sure will get a seat in due course
But then a Labour landslide means no PR referendum I suppose.
Cba to look too much into but am fairly sure that actual votes for UKIP/BXP/REFUK have always tended to underperform vs polling.
But was a guilty pleasure.
That's why they keep going back.
The kind of individual who still intends to vote Conservative is most likely to be someone like BigG or DavidL - institutionalist, traditionalist. Indeed, I think this actually shores up the Conservative vote because Farage is not a blank slate onto which you can project those values.
This could change if Sunak panics and turns to the death penalty, human rights and so on. No one would switch from Reform to Tory, but even more Tories would stay at home or even consider Lib Dems or Labour.
When it comes to debating Farage, the old saying about mud wrestling a pig comes to mind.
Of course, that might just be his misfortune to be a fag-end PM. Possibly anyone in his situation would be regarded the same. But I don't recall the same level of opprobrium towards Major. Possibly towards Brown. Like Brown, Sunak unfortunately just ooozes insincerity.
But because there isn't a rigid mathematical rule, this means there is plenty of scope for it to be interpreted to fit an editorial agenda, at least to a certain extent.
Thatcher could be disliked. Blair was disliked after Iraq, and did his “masochism strategy”. But they were respected.
Tory Remainers are annoyed about Brexit
Tory Brexiteers are annoyed that immigration hasn't been controlled.
Red Wallers are annoyed that the promised investment hasn't materialised and that Public services are failing
Thatcherites are annoyed that taxes are at a record high.
And they've even managed to annoy pensioners by freezing tax thresholds and then cutting NI.
You can then see how the complete collapse (Canada) scenario manifests as competing parties didn't need to all cover every segment. LDs can go for the Remainers, Reform for the Brexiteers and Thatcherites, and Labour for the Red Wallers
(Doesn't matter how true either impression was, both Major and Brown were old pros who knew how to play the game, if not how to win it.)
Sunak isn't liked or respected, and I suspect that the public haven't fully taken on board how ghastly he presents as. Because he is rubbish at basic politics. Hence a worse result than 1997 is incoming.
How about the next election, did any tactical vote unwind? Nationally there was a 2.0% swing from Con to Lab, In South Thanet it was 0.7% with Mackinley now getting the benefit of incumbency. It looks like Farage/UKIP took votes from Con, Lab and LD evenly with LD>Con and LD>Lab churn within that. I don't see any evidence of tactical voting within the data.
My point is that people are down on everything the Conservatives say, but if Labour do the same there seems to be no response. I get that people can say you’ve had 14 years, why should we believe you.
Hes just 'standard' unpopular, and change is on the table.
The Tories beat Farage and UKIP by just 5.7% in the seat, so yes it was Labour and LD tactical votes for the Tories that beat Farage in Thanet in 2015
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Thanet_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Starmer, unfortunately, has the same issue. It’s going to be turbulent times for a decade I reckon.
Its another non-policy from the Tories. Again they won't actually make a hard decision. They outsource the decision, then there is loads of lobbying and stories of no strawberrys for Wimbledon and you end up with same as now. Your Leon's of this world aren't going to vote for that.
A leader sets the vision, gets out ahead of issues, comes up with approaches to move things forward and hires the right people to manage the implementation.
Sunak has to take responsibility for his errors but he can’t be blamed for the fact that the party has been consistently unwilling to be led. So whatever is coming in a month from now, it’s for the whole Parliamentary Party to own. They should not get away with dumping it all on Sunak, particularly when May and Johnson faced similar factionalism albeit from different parts of the party.
For me it's Farage, followed by Johnson. Cameron, Salmond, Corbyn, Sturgeon hon. mentions.
Without the first two the past decade and a half would have been very different - despite never being elected Farage has set the agenda that led to the (likely) almost elimination of the Tories. Meanwhile Johnson has been the posterboy from Cameroonite Conservatism, through to Brexit, then chaos.
Most PMs lack imagination (or have too much of it!), sacrifice ideals for dull pragmatism (or place ideology before everything!), struggle with managing public perception and internal party politics, and don't know nearly as much as they think they do, whilst appointing a random assortment of friends and enemies to run departments and deliver policy with little coherent vision.
In other words they're usually a bit crappy, if we are lucky on the competent side of the scale with a few decent ideas. We don't expect a great deal, so really they should exceed our expectations more than they do.
I think there is some substance to the public's dislike of Sunak. A billionaire with a very right wing ideology, thinks government should be "small" ie favour rich people liked himself, has clearly no interest in people and how they live. This doesn't sit well.
The messaging for what's been a tough period after the pandemic has been really poor, and then he's been flailing around trying to find a coup de main that will transform the political calculus at a stroke.
Which character from the Marvel Universe would Rishi Sunak beat in an arm-wrestling match?
Apart from Howard the Duck.
Yes the Labour vote was down because some GE10 Lab voters voted for Farage/UKIP. The Tory vote was also down because some GE10 Con voters voted for Farage.
If you assume that most Farage/UKIP voters were GE10 Tories and therefore the loss in support from GE10 Labour and LD voters must have switched to Con to compensate for that loss then we would see that unwind in GE17 with the absence of Farage and no need for tactical voting. Lib Dems were 15% in GE10, 2% in GE15 and 3% in GE17, where did those 13% go? It seems like it split, the LD voters that liked coalition with the Tories moved to become Tories (not a tactical vote, a genuine change of preference that was common throughout the South) and the LD voters who had voted LD as a left-wing alternative to Labour moved back to Labour.