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I think the Tories would be happy with these MRPs all things considered – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,801
edited June 16 in General
I think the Tories would be happy with these MRPs all things considered – politicalbetting.com

?? MEGA POLL!10K sample.Labour leads by 26%.Tied-lowest Conservative % with Sunak as PM.Westminster VI (31/5 – 2/6):Labour 46% (–)Conservative 20% (-3)Reform 14% (+1)Lib Dem 10% (+1)Green 5% (–)SNP 2% (-1)Other 2% (-1)Changes +/- 25-27/5https://t.co/OXNaqzyEgw pic.twitter.com/GTTqeNWwuJ

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  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472
    edited June 3
    First like the Lib Dems in Godalming.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    edited June 3
    First! Like SKS.... Second, like CON....
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    eekeek Posts: 25,863
    edited June 3
    Third....
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 290
    Before the Farage announcement I managed to get a small stake on Reform UK 'most seats without Labour' at over 400. That's now trading around 20-30.

    Is there any chance that, if Farage does really well on Friday's debate + Sunak continues to do poorly, we see a small number of Tories advocating a flipped 2019 pact - endorsing Reform? Basically a 'if we throw our lot in with Nigel, we might have a chance of avoiding calamity' ?.

    Much more likely to come after the election of course, but desperate times and all that...
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    First Like Richi!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,037
    Tories would certainly take 140-180 seats at present and still main Opposition.

    However, yes the question is if Sunak can hold off Farage and stop further Tory leakage to Reform
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    Meanwhile, in Scotland:

    There are two important things to note when comparing Scottish data from this MRP to our previous, non-election campaign, models. Firstly, this is the largest Scottish sample that YouGov have used for an MRP since the 2019 general election. This gives us much more detail in terms of what is happening seat to seat. As well, we have been able to update some of the MRP target data with newly released 2022 Scottish census data.

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49606-first-yougov-mrp-of-2024-general-election-shows-labour-on-track-to-beat-1997-landslide
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 32,967
    Three firsts on the same thread - must be a record shirley?
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884
    Absolutely. Gives them a rump to rebuild

    But this was all before Farage. If he moves the polls in the coming days we may have to wait for new MRPs to assess the impact.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,332
    I’d be really happy with a 1997.

    Blimey and some.

    And I remain nervous. I don’t think we should get ahead of ourselves. Perhaps the polls will narrow, although today’s Emergency Announcement (oh the hubris) doesn’t exactly help Sunak’s cause.

    Rishi Sunak decided to make this election Presidential. Now he has a right-wing candidate who is 100x more politically capable than him.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    @helenlewis

    It’s wild that Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority on “get Brexit done” in 2019 and five years later, the Conservatives have undoubtedly Got Brexit Done … and literally no voter cares.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DON'T PANIC!

    @montie

    THIS IS THE WORST POSSIBLE NIGHTMARE FOR THE CONSERVATIVES.
    The party should have dumped Sunak.

    And if that didn’t work do they dump them. No way that approach would have made things anything but worse. Also the idea voters are flocking to the centre left because the Tories weren’t right wing enough, which is the underlying inference, is so monumentally stupid it defies belief anyone can suggest it.
    Starmer is only able to say "read my lips: I will cut immigration" because the Tories have done the opposite.

    As @Sean_F put it, they talk right while governing left, and there is no longer a constituency for that. It's not 2010 anymore
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    YokesYokes Posts: 1,225
    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472
    Was that actually Grant Shapps calling Sky News?!
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118
    Anyone know the VI for the YouGov??
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    Absolutely. Gives them a rump to rebuild

    But this was all before Farage. If he moves the polls in the coming days we may have to wait for new MRPs to assess the impact.

    True, but there’s no guarantee that the assumption that Reform goes up is correct. There’s a reason that’s the assumption but these things don’t always play out how we expect.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,216
    Lol! Grant Shapps calls Sky newsman live on telly then hangs up when he realises he is live on air! This campaign is utterly shambolic.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,332
    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    What is that based on?

    I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124

    Before the Farage announcement I managed to get a small stake on Reform UK 'most seats without Labour' at over 400. That's now trading around 20-30.

    Is there any chance that, if Farage does really well on Friday's debate + Sunak continues to do poorly, we see a small number of Tories advocating a flipped 2019 pact - endorsing Reform? Basically a 'if we throw our lot in with Nigel, we might have a chance of avoiding calamity' ?.

    Much more likely to come after the election of course, but desperate times and all that...

    No.
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 290
    edited June 3
    I also am not sure about everyone looking at the more 'normal' results of Labour 375-400 and thinking "Well, of course it will be something like that, rather than 400+"

    We really are in the territory where conventional wisdom is going out of the window. As other posters have said, the intricacies of FPTP mean that small percentage shifts from here on out could have massive effects on seat totals.

    I have thought for 2+ years that most people who say Reform on polls will inevitably 'come home' to the Tories - but with an upbeat, visible Farage on TVs, and a lot of Tories thinking "Well, we've lost anyway..." IMO we have the conditions for their vote to actually stick.

    I put a sizeable lay on 'Reform 0 Seats' this morning and can already get a sizeable profit on it but I may stick with it now. Even though I think it's still quite likely they win 0 seats, I would guess that Friday's debate will lead to a big surge of people betting on Reform winning seats - I can trade out of the bet after that.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118
    Based on the MRPs the value on betfair is the 150 to 200 Tory seats bracket
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472
    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    Who are these people that think they will do well? Farage claiming he'll take votes from Labour is interesting, but I doubt many on here would expect it to happen.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,977
    Is there a window for anyone with their names on the ballot, before or after being lodged as a Conservative candidate to (a) collect signatures as a Reform candidate or (b) defect after the papers are in saying they're a Tory?
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,418
    Sky MRP has two LAB gains in Isle of Wight. It's not happening
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,286

    Sky MRP has two LAB gains in Isle of Wight. It's not happening

    It will do if Greens and LDs vote Labour.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,634
    Farage already gets inordinate levels of attention from the lobby. This will make things even more out of kilter. Interesting to see how the broadcasters manage to calibrate their obsession with Nigel against the general election rules. In theory they’re not going to be able to give him as much airtime as they would in normal times.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118
    tlg86 said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    Who are these people that think they will do well? Farage claiming he'll take votes from Labour is interesting, but I doubt many on here would expect it to happen.
    I would
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    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,007
    The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884
    ToryJim said:

    Absolutely. Gives them a rump to rebuild

    But this was all before Farage. If he moves the polls in the coming days we may have to wait for new MRPs to assess the impact.

    True, but there’s no guarantee that the assumption that Reform goes up is correct. There’s a reason that’s the assumption but these things don’t always play out how we expect.
    I agree. And actually the most likely scenario is nothing much changes.

    But this is the first event this campaign, I think, which has felt it does have the possibility - however small - of upending things.

    You have a Tory vote who are absolutely demoralised.

    You have a figure on the right who polls better with Tories than their own leader.

    You have two parties on the right within 6 points of each other (if some polling is to be believed).

    It’s easy to see how the dial could shift, though I agree the chances are that the Tory vote is probably stickier than all that.

    The next few days will be very interesting.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,317
    tlg86 said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    Who are these people that think they will do well? Farage claiming he'll take votes from Labour is interesting, but I doubt many on here would expect it to happen.
    Survation's poll for Clacton, suggested that he would take votes off Labour and Conservatives.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,472

    tlg86 said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    Who are these people that think they will do well? Farage claiming he'll take votes from Labour is interesting, but I doubt many on here would expect it to happen.
    I would
    It would certainly put the cat among the pigeons.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,216

    Any remaining diehard NOM backers on Site will be pleased to see that they can now get on at 15/1.

    Don't all rush at once.

    I covered it at shorter odds. I won’t be munching up the better price.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,387
    Scott_xP said:

    @helenlewis

    It’s wild that Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority on “get Brexit done” in 2019 and five years later, the Conservatives have undoubtedly Got Brexit Done … and literally no voter cares.

    Nigel coming out and saying that Brexit was a load of rubbish was a masterstroke - it always was going to be, of course, but Nigel ensured that the Tories took the political battering over the thing he made them do, while he was completely absolved. Talk about 5D chess!
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,634
    Damn, just missed my stop.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,037

    The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.

    Ignore Reform and the Tories would be near extinction. 2019 Conservative voters currently voting Starmer Labour aren't coming back unless Labour mucks up the economy in government, the battle is now between Sunak and Farage to maintain leadership of the right in opposition
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118
    Pro_Rata said:

    Is there a window for anyone with their names on the ballot, before or after being lodged as a Conservative candidate to (a) collect signatures as a Reform candidate or (b) defect after the papers are in saying they're a Tory?

    No, they stay as Tory on ballot and lose the whip if elected. And possibly face an electoral fraud investigation?
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    YokesYokes Posts: 1,225
    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    What is that based on?

    I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
    Every other GE where there is someone trying to outflank the Conservatives on the right. The old Euros arent relevant to this and its not as if Reform romped home in the locals recently either. Its possible damage to the Consertvatives but it wont be anything akin to a breakthrough vote figure wherever they stand.

    Farage is doing a publicity run, the man couldnt giove a fiddlers for the country or in fact whether it is Clacton or somewhere in Cornwall its pure ego, again. Him and Galloway are two sides of the same coin in that regard.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,463

    Any remaining diehard NOM backers on Site will be pleased to see that they can now get on at 15/1.

    Don't all rush at once.

    Stick another zero on the end of that and I still wouldn't be tempted.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,431

    I also am not sure about everyone looking at the more 'normal' results of Labour 375-400 and thinking "Well, of course it will be something like that, rather than 400+"

    We really are in the territory where conventional wisdom is going out of the window. As other posters have said, the intricacies of FPTP mean that small percentage shifts from here on out could have massive effects on seat totals.

    I have thought for 2+ years that most people who say Reform on polls will inevitably 'come home' to the Tories - but with an upbeat, visible Farage on TVs, and a lot of Tories thinking "Well, we've lost anyway..." IMO we have the conditions for their vote to actually stick.

    There are some very interesting implications.

    It's extremely funny, and far too late for panicking Tory ex-MPs to roll the dice on a leadership change, of course.

    Imagine what would happen if RefUK, which lacks the necessary concentration of support to win a seat almost everywhere, overtook the Conservative Party in VI? The entire political right could end up forming a massive circular firing squad, and be defeated in almost every single constituency.

    Ed Davey as LOTO, who'd-a-thunk it?
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,853
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    Who are these people that think they will do well? Farage claiming he'll take votes from Labour is interesting, but I doubt many on here would expect it to happen.
    I would
    It would certainly put the cat among the pigeons.
    He'll take some from Labour, but not in sufficient quantities and places to do them much harm.

    It's a disaster for the Conservatives.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124

    I also am not sure about everyone looking at the more 'normal' results of Labour 375-400 and thinking "Well, of course it will be something like that, rather than 400+"

    We really are in the territory where conventional wisdom is going out of the window. As other posters have said, the intricacies of FPTP mean that small percentage shifts from here on out could have massive effects on seat totals.

    I have thought for 2+ years that most people who say Reform on polls will inevitably 'come home' to the Tories - but with an upbeat, visible Farage on TVs, and a lot of Tories thinking "Well, we've lost anyway..." IMO we have the conditions for their vote to actually stick.

    There are some very interesting implications.

    Yes. There is a huge difference between getting 150-180 seats and getting (as you get if Baxtering the less good Tory polling, even before Farage's intervention) 50-80 seats. The second is, in modern times, uncharted. The first is known to be a state Tories recover from.

    FWIW I think the Tories would settle for 160 seats; and SKS would settle for 340 and a clear if tiny majority.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,072
    YouGov MRP has Edinburgh West going from LD to SNP, which seems unlikely.

    Their England projection looks plausible though.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136
    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    What is that based on?

    I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
    it’s called “hope casting”. A lot of panicked Tories out there, right now

    It’s hilarious
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DON'T PANIC!

    @montie

    THIS IS THE WORST POSSIBLE NIGHTMARE FOR THE CONSERVATIVES.
    The party should have dumped Sunak.

    And if that didn’t work do they dump them. No way that approach would have made things anything but worse. Also the idea voters are flocking to the centre left because the Tories weren’t right wing enough, which is the underlying inference, is so monumentally stupid it defies belief anyone can suggest it.
    Starmer is only able to say "read my lips: I will cut immigration" because the Tories have done the opposite.

    As @Sean_F put it, they talk right while governing left, and there is no longer a constituency for that. It's not 2010 anymore
    I don’t entirely disagree but marching off to the right wing fringe and abandoning the centre ground doesn’t solve their electoral problems. It makes them worse. They don’t want to get into a situation of trying to be own brand coke when the real deal is available especially when everyone is buying Fanta.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084
    Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 290

    ToryJim said:

    Absolutely. Gives them a rump to rebuild

    But this was all before Farage. If he moves the polls in the coming days we may have to wait for new MRPs to assess the impact.

    True, but there’s no guarantee that the assumption that Reform goes up is correct. There’s a reason that’s the assumption but these things don’t always play out how we expect.
    I agree. And actually the most likely scenario is nothing much changes.

    But this is the first event this campaign, I think, which has felt it does have the possibility - however small - of upending things.

    You have a Tory vote who are absolutely demoralised.

    You have a figure on the right who polls better with Tories than their own leader.

    You have two parties on the right within 6 points of each other (if some polling is to be believed).

    It’s easy to see how the dial could shift, though I agree the chances are that the Tory vote is probably stickier than all that.

    The next few days will be very interesting.
    I fully agree. I think the value trading bet is to get positions on Reform and then look to trade out of them after the Friday Debate, where Farage will likely go on the offensive vs the Conservatives.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118
    pigeon said:

    I also am not sure about everyone looking at the more 'normal' results of Labour 375-400 and thinking "Well, of course it will be something like that, rather than 400+"

    We really are in the territory where conventional wisdom is going out of the window. As other posters have said, the intricacies of FPTP mean that small percentage shifts from here on out could have massive effects on seat totals.

    I have thought for 2+ years that most people who say Reform on polls will inevitably 'come home' to the Tories - but with an upbeat, visible Farage on TVs, and a lot of Tories thinking "Well, we've lost anyway..." IMO we have the conditions for their vote to actually stick.

    There are some very interesting implications.

    It's extremely funny, and far too late for panicking Tory ex-MPs to roll the dice on a leadership change, of course.

    Imagine what would happen if RefUK, which lacks the necessary concentration of support to win a seat almost everywhere, overtook the Conservative Party in VI? The entire political right could end up forming a massive circular firing squad, and be defeated in almost every single constituency.

    Ed Davey as LOTO, who'd-a-thunk it?
    Re your first point, there is no mechanism for forcing a leadership change until the new 1922 Committee chair is elected. Even if they wanted to.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,408
    As much as I want to see the Tories lose I certainly want them to poll well ahead of Reform .

    Hopefully there are enough sane Tories not duped by Farage who has zero answers for the problems the country faces .

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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124

    Pro_Rata said:

    Is there a window for anyone with their names on the ballot, before or after being lodged as a Conservative candidate to (a) collect signatures as a Reform candidate or (b) defect after the papers are in saying they're a Tory?

    No, they stay as Tory on ballot and lose the whip if elected. And possibly face an electoral fraud investigation?
    i don't believe there is any criminal (election law) aspect to this conduct. Which is not a recommendation.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,069
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    What is that based on?

    I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
    it’s called “hope casting”. A lot of panicked Tories out there, right now

    It’s hilarious
    Yokes is our resident military authority; perhaps the SBS will be sent to Clacton to do a pre-emptive strike on some ballot boxes.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DON'T PANIC!

    @montie

    THIS IS THE WORST POSSIBLE NIGHTMARE FOR THE CONSERVATIVES.
    The party should have dumped Sunak.

    And if that didn’t work do they dump them. No way that approach would have made things anything but worse. Also the idea voters are flocking to the centre left because the Tories weren’t right wing enough, which is the underlying inference, is so monumentally stupid it defies belief anyone can suggest it.
    Starmer is only able to say "read my lips: I will cut immigration" because the Tories have done the opposite.

    As @Sean_F put it, they talk right while governing left, and there is no longer a constituency for that. It's not 2010 anymore
    I don’t entirely disagree but marching off to the right wing fringe and abandoning the centre ground doesn’t solve their electoral problems. It makes them worse. They don’t want to get into a situation of trying to be own brand coke when the real deal is available especially when everyone is buying Fanta.
    In practice they have been radically liberal. They do need to move back to the centre, but the problem is that this is perceived as marching off to the right wing fringe because of their own rhetoric.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,136

    The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.

    What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?

    I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,105
    Just to clarify as someone mentioned Woking. The prediction there is LD 45, Con 24
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,249
    Jonathan said:

    Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?

    I'm not sure that is now a fight for control of the Tory party plays out in the event of a wipeout.

    There are lots of One Nation Tories in the wild who currently have no home.

    But I agree it *could* go that way, and no, it is not what I would want.

    Even a Tory Party with 150 MPs is going to face this problem, though.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,332
    edited June 3
    Yokes said:

    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    What is that based on?

    I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
    Every other GE where there is someone trying to outflank the Conservatives on the right. The old Euros arent relevant to this and its not as if Reform romped home in the locals recently either. Its possible damage to the Consertvatives but it wont be anything akin to a breakthrough vote figure wherever they stand.

    Farage is doing a publicity run, the man couldnt giove a fiddlers for the country or in fact whether it is Clacton or somewhere in Cornwall its pure ego, again. Him and Galloway are two sides of the same coin in that regard.
    I mean, politically I agree with you but not psephologically? You may be correct but I’m not at all sure about the claim that 'Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.'

    With Farage at the helm, standing as an MP, and the Conservatives at rock bottom with a weak leader I’d say that Reform could do a bit better than they are currently polling.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,906
    How can a lead of 26 points give only three hundred and eighty odd MPs?
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    What is that based on?

    I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
    TBH it probably increases their polling ceiling, but consider also that 2015, probably peak Farage in genny lec terms UKIP got 12.6%; they had regularly been nudging 15% in the polls. While his grift will always have an audience, I expect his appeal has faced a gradual attrition over the last decade or so.

    That being said - the Tories are right to be worried. They will always be vulnerable on the right flank, but much more so now they've forsaken their traditional brand of reliable economic custodians and friend of the striver. It's one thing trying to be all things to all people, but nothing to no-one is certainly a novel approach. Rishi truly is the Nando's broccoli on the plate of politics.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,124
    Jonathan said:

    Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?

    There is still plenty of centre right opinion around. At the moment Labour is their nearest (not very near) representative and lots will vote for them or LD where relevant.

    There is no prospect of a Tory/ Reform convergence.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,886
    Difficult to know the challenger in St.Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire

    Con 34%
    LD 27%
    Lab 26%
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,037
    edited June 3
    Jonathan said:

    In the craziness of a Farage campaign where do sensible middle of the road, conservative people turn for safety? In the past it has been the Tories, my hunch is that Starmer is probably now the safer bet for them. Sunak is currently not offering a safe haven.

    Starmer is going to win big anyway. They now need to consider whether they want Farage as Leader of the Opposition (if Reform overtake the Tories in the polls) or one of Sunak's Cabinet
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,906
    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    What is that based on?

    I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
    Every other GE where there is someone trying to outflank the Conservatives on the right. The old Euros arent relevant to this and its not as if Reform romped home in the locals recently either. Its possible damage to the Consertvatives but it wont be anything akin to a breakthrough vote figure wherever they stand.

    Farage is doing a publicity run, the man couldnt giove a fiddlers for the country or in fact whether it is Clacton or somewhere in Cornwall its pure ego, again. Him and Galloway are two sides of the same coin in that regard.
    I mean, politically I agree with you but not psephologically? You may be correct but I’m not at all sure about the claim that 'Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.'

    With Farage at the helm, standing as an MP, and the Conservatives at rock bottom with a weak leader I’d say that Reform could do a bit better than they are currently polling.
    Bear in mind also that back in 2019 the Conservatives had the message of vote BXP, get Corbyn. Vote Reform get Starmer isn't anything like so potent.
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,249
    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    What is that based on?

    I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
    TBH it probably increases their polling ceiling, but consider also that 2015, probably peak Farage in genny lec terms UKIP got 12.6%; they had regularly been nudging 15% in the polls. While his grift will always have an audience, I expect his appeal has faced a gradual attrition over the last decade or so.

    That being said - the Tories are right to be worried. They will always be vulnerable on the right flank, but much more so now they've forsaken their traditional brand of reliable economic custodians and friend of the striver. It's one thing trying to be all things to all people, but nothing to no-one is certainly a novel approach. Rishi truly is the Nando's broccoli on the plate of politics.
    The right flank is where crumbling happens, and the Tories always have to keep an eye on it.

    But the foundations are in the centre right, and they've already lost those.

    I don't see the Tory party rebuilding from the right, back to the centre.
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    PedestrianRockPedestrianRock Posts: 290
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    In the craziness of a Farage campaign where do sensible middle of the road, conservative people turn for safety? In the past it has been the Tories, my hunch is that Starmer is probably now the safer bet for them. Sunak is currently not offering a safe haven.

    Starmer is going to win anyway. They now need to consider whether they want Farage as Leader of the Opposition (if Reform get close to or overtake the Tories in the polls) or one of Sunak's Cabinet
    And even if the Tories do 'reasonably okay' around the 130-150 seat mark, they could end up with Farage LOTO not long afterwards anyway, if he's seen as their only option.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,395
    You can get 15/4 on Lee Anderson holding on in Ashfield for Reform. That feels like a decent bet with the extra media attention Reform are likely to get with Farage's return.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118
    Cookie said:

    How can a lead of 26 points give only three hundred and eighty odd MPs?

    Different polls, not sure the YouGov lead, probably high teens
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,906

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DON'T PANIC!

    @montie

    THIS IS THE WORST POSSIBLE NIGHTMARE FOR THE CONSERVATIVES.
    The party should have dumped Sunak.

    And if that didn’t work do they dump them. No way that approach would have made things anything but worse. Also the idea voters are flocking to the centre left because the Tories weren’t right wing enough, which is the underlying inference, is so monumentally stupid it defies belief anyone can suggest it.
    Starmer is only able to say "read my lips: I will cut immigration" because the Tories have done the opposite.

    As @Sean_F put it, they talk right while governing left, and there is no longer a constituency for that. It's not 2010 anymore
    I don’t entirely disagree but marching off to the right wing fringe and abandoning the centre ground doesn’t solve their electoral problems. It makes them worse. They don’t want to get into a situation of trying to be own brand coke when the real deal is available especially when everyone is buying Fanta.
    In practice they have been radically liberal. They do need to move back to the centre, but the problem is that this is perceived as marching off to the right wing fringe because of their own rhetoric.
    Absolutely. Talk right, act left is a recipe for alienating everyone.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,073
    mwadams said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    What is that based on?

    I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
    TBH it probably increases their polling ceiling, but consider also that 2015, probably peak Farage in genny lec terms UKIP got 12.6%; they had regularly been nudging 15% in the polls. While his grift will always have an audience, I expect his appeal has faced a gradual attrition over the last decade or so.

    That being said - the Tories are right to be worried. They will always be vulnerable on the right flank, but much more so now they've forsaken their traditional brand of reliable economic custodians and friend of the striver. It's one thing trying to be all things to all people, but nothing to no-one is certainly a novel approach. Rishi truly is the Nando's broccoli on the plate of politics.
    The right flank is where crumbling happens, and the Tories always have to keep an eye on it.

    But the foundations are in the centre right, and they've already lost those.

    I don't see the Tory party rebuilding from the right, back to the centre.
    They do find themselves in the position of the Candian Conservatives in 1993. They've lost credibility on both the right and centre flanks simultaneously.

    In theory they should be executing a core vote strategy to minimise the losses, but Sunak isn't the right person for that.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    In the craziness of a Farage campaign where do sensible middle of the road, conservative people turn for safety? In the past it has been the Tories, my hunch is that Starmer is probably now the safer bet for them. Sunak is currently not offering a safe haven.

    Starmer is going to win anyway. They now need to consider whether they want Farage as Leader of the Opposition (if Reform overtake the Tories in the polls) or one of Sunak's Cabinet
    Or Ed Davey? Arguably the LDs are the natural home of one nation Tories now.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,887
    mwadams said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    What is that based on?

    I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
    TBH it probably increases their polling ceiling, but consider also that 2015, probably peak Farage in genny lec terms UKIP got 12.6%; they had regularly been nudging 15% in the polls. While his grift will always have an audience, I expect his appeal has faced a gradual attrition over the last decade or so.

    That being said - the Tories are right to be worried. They will always be vulnerable on the right flank, but much more so now they've forsaken their traditional brand of reliable economic custodians and friend of the striver. It's one thing trying to be all things to all people, but nothing to no-one is certainly a novel approach. Rishi truly is the Nando's broccoli on the plate of politics.
    The right flank is where crumbling happens, and the Tories always have to keep an eye on it.

    But the foundations are in the centre right, and they've already lost those.

    I don't see the Tory party rebuilding from the right, back to the centre.
    As I pointed out at the tail of the last thread.
    Foxy said:

    Farage overall favourability was -37 in the most recent yougov survey. Slightly better than Sunak, Hunt or Gove, but not a great baseline for progress.

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49179-political-tracker-roundup-april-2024

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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,286
    edited June 3
    Jonathan said:

    In the craziness of a Farage campaign where do sensible middle of the road, conservative people turn for safety? In the past it has been the Tories, my hunch is that Starmer is probably now the safer bet for them. Sunak is currently not offering a safe haven.

    Being more centrist doesn't always work out. The Progressive Conservatives in Canada in 1993 were the more centrist of the two main right-of-centre parties, but they got reduced to 2 seats and the more right-wing Reform Party won 52.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election#National_results
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,853
    Yokes said:

    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    What is that based on?

    I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
    Every other GE where there is someone trying to outflank the Conservatives on the right. The old Euros arent relevant to this and its not as if Reform romped home in the locals recently either. Its possible damage to the Consertvatives but it wont be anything akin to a breakthrough vote figure wherever they stand.

    Farage is doing a publicity run, the man couldnt giove a fiddlers for the country or in fact whether it is Clacton or somewhere in Cornwall its pure ego, again. Him and Galloway are two sides of the same coin in that regard.
    This morning, I saw some erroneous poll figures giving the Tories 19% and Reform 17%, and out of curiosity I Baxtered them. Gave me seats of 24 and nil respectively.

    That is an indication of just how far Reform have to go before they become a significant Parliamentary Party.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,332
    Okay prediction time.

    Sigh*

    Next 7-10 days we’re going to see a detectable and possibly significant further fall in the Conservative vote share.

    * Sigh, because I feel like 2 years I got this right and this time I might just as easily be completely and utterly wrong.
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,857
    Okay, most of those look pretty plausible to me.
    I mean, I'd love for the more extreme LDs-possibly-overtake-Cons to be true, but in the seats where I have some personal knowledge, they all look reasonable to me.

    (NB: Didcot and Wantage yet again a similar story: LD 35, Con 30, Lab 23)
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084
    Andy_JS said:

    Jonathan said:

    In the craziness of a Farage campaign where do sensible middle of the road, conservative people turn for safety? In the past it has been the Tories, my hunch is that Starmer is probably now the safer bet for them. Sunak is currently not offering a safe haven.

    Being more centrist doesn't always work out. The Progressive Conservatives in Canada in 1993 were the more centrist of the two main right-of-centre parties, but they got reduced to 2 seats and the more right-wing Reform Party won 52.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election#National_results
    It happened to Labour in Scotland. Wipeouts from a seemingly invulnerable position can happen here.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,332

    You can get 15/4 on Lee Anderson holding on in Ashfield for Reform. That feels like a decent bet with the extra media attention Reform are likely to get with Farage's return.

    That’s a really good tip
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    mwadams said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    What is that based on?

    I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
    TBH it probably increases their polling ceiling, but consider also that 2015, probably peak Farage in genny lec terms UKIP got 12.6%; they had regularly been nudging 15% in the polls. While his grift will always have an audience, I expect his appeal has faced a gradual attrition over the last decade or so.

    That being said - the Tories are right to be worried. They will always be vulnerable on the right flank, but much more so now they've forsaken their traditional brand of reliable economic custodians and friend of the striver. It's one thing trying to be all things to all people, but nothing to no-one is certainly a novel approach. Rishi truly is the Nando's broccoli on the plate of politics.
    The right flank is where crumbling happens, and the Tories always have to keep an eye on it.

    But the foundations are in the centre right, and they've already lost those.

    I don't see the Tory party rebuilding from the right, back to the centre.
    You'd hope - I think will depend who is left standing on the fifth.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,951
    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    What is that based on?

    I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
    TBH it probably increases their polling ceiling, but consider also that 2015, probably peak Farage in genny lec terms UKIP got 12.6%; they had regularly been nudging 15% in the polls. While his grift will always have an audience, I expect his appeal has faced a gradual attrition over the last decade or so.

    That being said - the Tories are right to be worried. They will always be vulnerable on the right flank, but much more so now they've forsaken their traditional brand of reliable economic custodians and friend of the striver. It's one thing trying to be all things to all people, but nothing to no-one is certainly a novel approach. Rishi truly is the Nando's broccoli on the plate of politics.
    Nothing to all, surely ...
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,120

    Looking at my area, not much sign of tactical voting being that effective e.g.

    Wokingham - LD 34, Con 34, Lab 17
    Maidenhead - LD 34, Con 31, Lab 19
    Earley and Woodley - Lab 34, Con 30, LD 19
    Windsor - Con 33, Lab 26, LD 22

    So a glimmer of hop for Con, if they can get a modest swingback BUT it can also get worse with improved tactical voting.

    I was initially surprised at the Maidenhead forecast but I know Theresa May was very popular so her going may have made the difference.

    It’s the glimmers of hope that kills you.

    Is it a glimmer of hope though Gareth? Or is it the other way, some modelling completely underestimating how razor sharp tactical voters will be?

    Con MP surviving by 3% with 3rd place polling well into the teens? Not in my opinion. Not least because the local elections this parliament has demonstrated razor sharp tactical voting, these MRP trying to tell us the tactical voters will completely lose their sharpness when it comes to the General Election.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,314
    Well credit to Farage, he has at least injected a bit of excitement in an otherwise dull election.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    Carnyx said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    What is that based on?

    I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
    TBH it probably increases their polling ceiling, but consider also that 2015, probably peak Farage in genny lec terms UKIP got 12.6%; they had regularly been nudging 15% in the polls. While his grift will always have an audience, I expect his appeal has faced a gradual attrition over the last decade or so.

    That being said - the Tories are right to be worried. They will always be vulnerable on the right flank, but much more so now they've forsaken their traditional brand of reliable economic custodians and friend of the striver. It's one thing trying to be all things to all people, but nothing to no-one is certainly a novel approach. Rishi truly is the Nando's broccoli on the plate of politics.
    Nothing to all, surely ...
    I was deploying the Italian-American intensifying double-neg.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,248
    Jonathan said:

    Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?

    Needn't work out that way.

    Roughly, there are three half-parties to the right of Labour:

    Liberal Democrats
    Conservative wets to Cameroons
    Conservative right wingers and Reform

    Stick two of them together and you have something. Three groups fighting each other will lead to a Labour walkover under FPTP.

    The Canada scenario is to unite the second two. But the first two are also reasonably coherent in government terms, as 2010-15 showed. A tricky sell- I suspect it would be more the Lib Dems absorbing individual centre rightist mums and dads than a merger. Needs the heat taken out of our post-Brexit future as well.

    But after that? Who has the rights to the Liberal Unionist name?
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,146
    edited June 3

    The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.

    I'd agree that a million migrants a year is reckless extremism, not sure why you think it's right wing though. Then on top every policy they propose they then decide to fund the charities challenging them in the court.

    Right wing words, left wing actions = everyone is unhappy.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,133
    Scott_xP said:

    @helenlewis

    It’s wild that Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority on “get Brexit done” in 2019 and five years later, the Conservatives have undoubtedly Got Brexit Done … and literally no voter cares.

    Reminiscent of 1918's winning election slogan "Hang the Kaiser"?

    Of course Kaiser Bill somehow avoided dangling from a rope, but just sayin'.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488
    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Jonathan said:

    In the craziness of a Farage campaign where do sensible middle of the road, conservative people turn for safety? In the past it has been the Tories, my hunch is that Starmer is probably now the safer bet for them. Sunak is currently not offering a safe haven.

    Being more centrist doesn't always work out. The Progressive Conservatives in Canada in 1993 were the more centrist of the two main right-of-centre parties, but they got reduced to 2 seats and the more right-wing Reform Party won 52.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election#National_results
    It happened to Labour in Scotland. Wipeouts from a seemingly invulnerable position can happen here.
    Wipeout yes, but not extinction. Lab have been polling top in Scotland recently, and not inconceivable that they'll return more Scottish MPs than the SNP do.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,488

    Scott_xP said:

    @helenlewis

    It’s wild that Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority on “get Brexit done” in 2019 and five years later, the Conservatives have undoubtedly Got Brexit Done … and literally no voter cares.

    Reminiscent of 1918's winning election slogan "Hang the Kaiser"?

    Of course Kaiser Bill somehow avoided dangling from a rope, but just sayin'.
    Panic on the streets of Versailles...
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,853

    Scott_xP said:

    @helenlewis

    It’s wild that Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority on “get Brexit done” in 2019 and five years later, the Conservatives have undoubtedly Got Brexit Done … and literally no voter cares.

    Reminiscent of 1918's winning election slogan "Hang the Kaiser"?

    Of course Kaiser Bill somehow avoided dangling from a rope, but just sayin'.
    Bribed the Dutch, no? They kept him banged up but allowed him to collect his rents. One imagines they took a cut.
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    YokesYokes Posts: 1,225
    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    What is that based on?

    I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
    Every other GE where there is someone trying to outflank the Conservatives on the right. The old Euros arent relevant to this and its not as if Reform romped home in the locals recently either. Its possible damage to the Consertvatives but it wont be anything akin to a breakthrough vote figure wherever they stand.

    Farage is doing a publicity run, the man couldnt giove a fiddlers for the country or in fact whether it is Clacton or somewhere in Cornwall its pure ego, again. Him and Galloway are two sides of the same coin in that regard.
    I mean, politically I agree with you but not psephologically? You may be correct but I’m not at all sure about the claim that 'Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.'

    With Farage at the helm, standing as an MP, and the Conservatives at rock bottom with a weak leader I’d say that Reform could do a bit better than they are currently polling.
    Well that is better? The polls say what, 10-11% maybe nationally? I reckon its going to end up nationally way less. The way some talk its like an exisential threat to the Conservatives but the threat to the Conservatives is their post election in-fighting. People are tired of them, they are going to take a kicking, that happens. Its about what they do after.

    My own thoughts about Farage aside, and bear in mind I may be the only person on this site to have stated that I consider myself, in some ways, a British nationalist, Reform has no story, its currently a protest party in scale and position and this election I don't think will prove different.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,884

    Yokes said:

    Heathener said:

    Yokes said:

    Reform will not do half as well as some reckon.

    What is that based on?

    I think we are all going to be fascinated to see the polls taken with fieldwork after today.
    Every other GE where there is someone trying to outflank the Conservatives on the right. The old Euros arent relevant to this and its not as if Reform romped home in the locals recently either. Its possible damage to the Consertvatives but it wont be anything akin to a breakthrough vote figure wherever they stand.

    Farage is doing a publicity run, the man couldnt giove a fiddlers for the country or in fact whether it is Clacton or somewhere in Cornwall its pure ego, again. Him and Galloway are two sides of the same coin in that regard.
    This morning, I saw some erroneous poll figures giving the Tories 19% and Reform 17%, and out of curiosity I Baxtered them. Gave me seats of 24 and nil respectively.

    That is an indication of just how far Reform have to go before they become a significant Parliamentary Party.
    The only caveat I would put on that is that if people start to think Reform are a viable vote there may be certain seats which are more vulnerable to them than others. It’s hard for Baxter’s model to adapt to them, because the Brexit Party didn’t stand in a number of constituencies last time.

    But FPTP is a cruel mistress and you are right they’d have to get some significant national attention and focus on certain seats to be guaranteed of a good haul. LD/Con/Lab have had the benefit of many elections and proper resourcing to understand seat targeting. Reform don’t have anything like that infrastructure.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084
    Ghedebrav said:

    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Jonathan said:

    In the craziness of a Farage campaign where do sensible middle of the road, conservative people turn for safety? In the past it has been the Tories, my hunch is that Starmer is probably now the safer bet for them. Sunak is currently not offering a safe haven.

    Being more centrist doesn't always work out. The Progressive Conservatives in Canada in 1993 were the more centrist of the two main right-of-centre parties, but they got reduced to 2 seats and the more right-wing Reform Party won 52.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Canadian_federal_election#National_results
    It happened to Labour in Scotland. Wipeouts from a seemingly invulnerable position can happen here.
    Wipeout yes, but not extinction. Lab have been polling top in Scotland recently, and not inconceivable that they'll return more Scottish MPs than the SNP do.
    Labour were reduced to one seat. They hung on because the Tories were never going to become the alternative to the SNP.

    That is not necessarily the case in the U.K., where there are least two other plausible alternatives to Labour if the Tories falter.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,356
    The Tories have spent 20 years trying to appease the Faragists.

    How's that working out..?
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    In the craziness of a Farage campaign where do sensible middle of the road, conservative people turn for safety? In the past it has been the Tories, my hunch is that Starmer is probably now the safer bet for them. Sunak is currently not offering a safe haven.

    Starmer is going to win anyway. They now need to consider whether they want Farage as Leader of the Opposition (if Reform get close to or overtake the Tories in the polls) or one of Sunak's Cabinet
    And even if the Tories do 'reasonably okay' around the 130-150 seat mark, they could end up with Farage LOTO not long afterwards anyway, if he's seen as their only option.
    It would split the party asunder. TRG type Tories would leave in droves. There aren’t enough votes for a Farage type candidate. Boris only got the votes to win by pretending he was the bastard love child of Farage and Tony Blair.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,332

    Well credit to Farage, he has at least injected a bit of excitement in an otherwise dull election.

    That’s exactly what my Surrey tory friend just said to me
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,836
    While @Anabobazina has wrested control of the Truss comeback meme from me (you snooze you lose I guess) I did have a wry "told you so" chuckle at this -

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/might-liz-truss-run-for-tory-leader-again/
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,133

    Scott_xP said:

    @helenlewis

    It’s wild that Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority on “get Brexit done” in 2019 and five years later, the Conservatives have undoubtedly Got Brexit Done … and literally no voter cares.

    Nigel coming out and saying that Brexit was a load of rubbish was a masterstroke - it always was going to be, of course, but Nigel ensured that the Tories took the political battering over the thing he made them do, while he was completely absolved. Talk about 5D chess!
    Very Trumpian of Farage, ain't it? But no surprise there!

    Timing of UK GE is just perfect for NF. Seeing as he can now campaign in UK up to July 4, then head to USA to reclaim his seat on the MAGA gravy train for next four months.

    Grifter paradise.
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,905
    Leon said:

    The Conservatives are screwed. They've made the fatal mistake of attempting to appease the extremists instead of facing them down and remaining near the centre. Extremists are never satisfied - throw them one bone and they'll be back for two until you have nothing left to throw them. Then they'll eat you.

    What the F did the Tories offer right wing voters? After their catastrophic failures on immigration? Some weak sauce gaylording trans activist national service with green hair idea which was actually proposed, almost identically, by Blair and then Cameron beforehand? Is that it? Was that the “red meat”?

    I am amazed they aren’t at 45% in the polls after such a genius move
    Jonathan said:

    Do we really benefit from a fatally wounded Tory party replaced by (or merged with) Reform? Do we want Trumpian politicians like Farage?

    My instinct is that a right wing party will do very well in the UK and will eventually come to power. If they set out a radical and powerful alternative vision to the current situation that attracts (probably) 30% of voters at the moment, this can increase to 50%+ the more that time goes by as the current situation fails.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,118
    I'm going against the consensus. Farage will have an unexpected effect. What's flakier, the core of an unpopular party or the mile wide, inch deep votes of the not particularly liked alternative?
This discussion has been closed.